WORLD SILVER PRODUCTION: 3 Charts You Won’t See Anywhere Else

By the SRSrocco Report,

The rate at which global silver production increased over the past century is quite astonishing.  When Columbus arrived in America (1492), the world was only producing 7 million oz of silver a year.  Today, the world"s largest primary silver mine, Fresnillo"s Sauicto Mine, produced three times that amount in just one year (22 million oz, 2016).  Yes, we have come along way in 500 years.

Just think about that for a minute.  One silver mine last year produced three times the global amount in 1493.  According to the U.S. Bureau of Mines 1930 Report on Summarized Data of Silver Production, the average annual silver production in the world from 1493 to 1600 was 6.9 million oz (Moz).  If we look at the following chart, we can see how world silver production increased over the past 500+ years:

As we can see, average annual world silver production increased from 6.9 Moz during 1493-1600, to 13 Moz from 1600-1700, 18 Moz from 1700-1800, 51 Moz from 1800-1900, 274 Moz from 1900-2000 and a stunning 722 Moz from 2000-2017.  Again, these figures represent the average annual silver production for each time period.

In the current period, 2000-2017, the world has produced 103 times more silver per year than from 1493-1600.  However, the next chart shows the total silver production for each period.  From 1493-1600, the world produced a total of 747 Moz of silver, compared to 13,000 Moz (13 billion oz) in just 18 years from 2000-2017:

Now, the reason the last silver bar on the right of the chart is lower than the previous one has to do with comparing 18 years worth of silver production (2000-2017) versus 50 years (1950-2000).  It took 50 years to produce 17,061 Moz during 1950-2000 versus 13,000 Moz in the 18 years from 2000-2017.

If we compare world silver production from the different periods, here is the result:

Percentage Of World Silver Production (1493-2017)

2000-2017 = 26.4%

1950-2017 = 61%

1900-2017 = 82%

While a little more than a quarter of all world silver production (1493-2017) was produced in the past 18 years, 82% were produced since 1900.  That is a lot of silver.  It turns out that 40.4 billion oz was produced from 1900-2017 out of the total 49.3 billion oz produced since 1493.  Interestingly, more than half of that silver was consumed in industrial silver applications.  I will be writing more about that in future articles.

The last chart I find quite interesting.  If we go back a little more than a century, the United States was the largest silver producer in the world.  In 1915, the U.S. produced 75 Moz of silver out of the total 189 Moz mined in the world that year:

Thus, in 1915, the U.S. produced 40% of all world silver production.  Mexico came in second in 1915 by producing 39.3 Moz.  However, U.S. silver production in 2017 will only be 34 Moz versus the estimated 870 Moz globally.  Thus, U.S. silver production only accounts for 4% of world mine supply versus 40% back in 1915.  What a change in 100 years.

Lastly, the U.S. imports approximately 22% of world mine production each year.  That is 193 Moz of the total 870 Moz in 2017.  While domestic mine supply is only 34 Moz, the United States has to import more than a fifth of global mine production to meet its silver market demand.

If you haven"t checked out our new PRECIOUS METALS INVESTING section or our new LOWEST COST PRECIOUS METALS STORAGE page, I highly recommend you do.

Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report.

 

Finally, Gold Speculators Start To Bail, Setting Up A Big Q1 2018

Posted with permission and written by John Rubino, Dollar Collapse 

 

 

It took a lot longer than it should have, but gold futures traders have finally started behaving “normally.” The speculators who were extremely, stubbornly long – and who are usually wrong when they’re this excited — had maintained their over-optimistic bets when they should have been stampeding for the exits, making the last few months both boring and depressing for gold bugs and related investors.

 

This departure from the familiar script raised questions about whether the action in futures (aka paper gold) was still relevant in the age of Chinese physical gold exchanges and cryptocurrency. The jury’s still out on that one, but for now the numbers are reassuring.

 

The following table (courtesy of GoldSeek) shows speculators cutting way back on long bets and adding to short bets, while the “commercials” – who tend to be right at sharp turns — did the opposite, going a lot less short.

 

 

Same thing only more so in silver, where another week like the last one will bring net positions into balance for both groups, which has historically been extremely bullish.

 

 

Here’s the same data depicted graphically for gold: Note how both the speculators (silver columns) and the commercials (red columns) held their positions from spring into fall, producing the previously-mentioned boredom and depression. Also note the sharp drop in the most recent reporting week.

 

 

The numbers we’re seeing here are as of Tuesday the 5th, and the final three days of last week were a bloodbath for precious metals, so it’s highly likely that the next COT numbers – due out on Friday the 15th – will show absolute panic among speculators, leading to an even bigger swing in the right direction.

 

If history is still reliable, January will be a great month to own precious metals and mining stocks.

 

 

Questions or comments about this article? Leave your thoughts HERE.

 

 

 

 

Finally, Gold Speculators Start To Bail, Setting Up A Big Q1 2018

Posted with permission and written by John Rubino, Dollar Collapse 

 

 

 

Check out these other articles by our contributors:

 

CPM Group’s Jeff Christian Responds “NEGATIVELY” To The SRSrocco Report On Silver Investment Demand - Steve St. Angelo

The Biggest Bubble Ever, In Three Charts - John Rubino

Eric Sprott Forecasts Status Quo Now, But Big Rally in 2018 (Weekly Wrap-Up, December 8, 2017)

Is This The Real Driver Of Gold's Recent Weakness?

If you are a precious metals investor then you may be wondering why the price of gold and silver has been slammed in recent weeks... amid ever-increasing nuclear armageddon rhetoric, storms, quakes, floods, and a central bank (that is notoriously bad at forecasting) about to attempt to do something with its balance sheet thathas never been achieved...

The answer is surprisingly simple... China"s Golden Week Holiday.

As SHTFplan.com"s Mac Slavo wrote a year ago, and appears to be proved correct once again... Ask the expert pundits on financial media and you’ll get a swath of explanations for how the strength of the dollar or the improving health of the global economy are to blame.

One could reasonably argue that dollar strength this week could certainly put downward pressure on the gold price. So, too, could one make the point that mainstream perspective is such that the economy is improving, which means investors aren’t in panic mode and have no reason to hold a safe haven asset. But neither of these arguments could realistically lead to the smack down we witnessed this week.

So what happened?

Well known gold and silver analyst Andy Hoffman suggests the answer could be much simpler than we have been led to believe.

There’s no reason… there’s not even a propaganda meme of why [gold has been smashed]… there isn’t even a such thing as negative news for precious metals anymore…

The fact is, [like the last few years, when prices collapsed], China is closed for the week.

One glance at the last few years gold price action suggests he may well be correct...

After this Friday"s close, China will be on vacation for its Golden Week National Holiday and this weakness appears to be traders front-running the traditional chaos that the rest of the world plays when China leaves the playing field.

China will be back in business on October 9th, and that means the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which opened in 2015 to counter Western manipulation of precious metals, will likely help re-balance prices to where they were before this recent takedown.

We could be wrong, but something tells us gold and silver prices won’t stay this low for much longer and that they could well see a complete turnaround when China reopens on October 9th.

FX Technicals: Is the US Dollar's Down Done?

The US Dollar has been relentlessly sold against FX peers since January 3rd, 2017 ....

shedding pips-a-plenty versus EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD ... 

Uncle Buck has been pummeled ..

until now. 

Following a series of explicit failed new highs in early-mid March ...

the USD weekly chart shows just one bounce attempt worth examining (at the end of March, from 3.27.17 - 4.7.17) ..

until now. 

DXY (Daily)

Relative Strength (RSI) Comparisons - 240 Minutes

The following two charts show composite RSI and DMI values for each individual currency. These composite RSI and DMI values are derived from performing data comparisons across all currency pairs.

Note that on 9/8 (the recent $ swing low of 91.01) ...

the USD (in green) registered the lowest RSI value (26) and DMI value (-30) of any currency ..

and by a wide margin.

Now, the US Dollar sports the highest RSI and DMI values of any currency; suggesting that it may be primed for an upside breakout.

Directional Movement (DMI) Comparisons - 240 Minutes

USDJPY (Daily)

EURUSD (Daily) - Gap Fill

For more EURUSD technical analysis: 

FX Technicals: Pre-Draghi

Why the US Dollar is About to go Up, and the Euro Isn"t. 

EURUSD (Weekly) - Trendline Resistance

GBPUSD (Daily) - Price Channel

GBPUSD (Weekly) - Trendline Resistance

Check out www.Fibozachi.com to learn about modern technical analysis and trading indicators that actually work.

Dollar Bloodbath Continues Across Asia, Gold Tops Election-Night Spike Highs

Having plunged by the most in 6 months during the US day session, the dollar is continuing to get pounded across AsiaPac with Hong Kong Dollar and Yuan surging. Gold is extending gains, breaking above the spike highs from election night...

The Dollar Index is in free fall...This is the 7th straight down day for the USD Index...

There is not much support below here...

Driven by widespread selling across Asia... The last 3 days have seen the biggest collapse in the dollar since the start of January.

With the Hong Kong Dollar exploding higher (and 12mo forwards signaling expectations of a major collapse in the US dollar, breaking the Hong Kong peg)...

Offshore Yuan is spiking higher against the dollar...

But all Asian currencies are surging against the dollar tonight...

And gold is spiking back above the election night highs...

Did President Trump"s "we don"t need no stinking debt ceiling" decision finally break the back of dollar hegemony?

Or is this the market calling The Fed"s bluff and forcing them to hike rates to defend the dollar - and by doing so losing all data-dependent credibility (whatever is left)?

U.S. Dollar; Triple support test after rare 30-week decline

From 2011 to the start of this year, the US$ has been pretty strong, as it rallied nearly 30% in 6-years. Over the past 30-weeks, King Dollar has been rather weak.

Below looks at the US$ over the past 18-years, with 30-week performance applied-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

King Dollar has declined over 9% in the last 30-weeks at (1). As one can see, this sharp of a decline in 30-weeks hasn’t taken place a ton of times since the late 1990’s. The decline has the US$ testing the bottom of a 24-month trading range and two rising support lines at the same time at (2).

This decline has bullish sentiment towards the US$ at the lowest levels in the past three years, according to Sentimentrader.com, reflected in the chart below.

This information is coming to you  

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

With few investors bullish King Dollar at this time and a triple support test in play after a rare 9% decline in 30-weeks, what the US$ does at (2) in the top chart, could become very important for the Dollar and many commodities.

Gold & Silver have not pushed much higher while the US$ has been very weak. This makes the price point in the US$, all the more important to the metals sector, if this triple support test would hold.

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Against Irredeemable Paper, Report 23 July 2017

Something needs to be said. We are against the existence of irredeemable paper currency, central banking and central planning, cronyism, socialized losses and privatized gains, counterfeit credit, wealth transfers and bailouts, and welfare both corporate and personal.

When we write to debunk the conspiracy theories that say manipulation is keeping gold from hitting $5,000 (one speaker here at FreedomFest claimed gold will go to $65,000), we are not trying to defend the Fed. When we discuss the flaws in predicting that kind of price, and the error in expecting to profit from it, we are not expressing a pro irredeemable dollar view.

We are saying there are good arguments against the regime of irredeemable paper currency—but this is not one of them. Irredeemable currency has two fatal flaws. One is the interest rate is unhinged. It can skyrocket as it did from the end of WWII through 1980, or collapse as it has been doing since then. Two is there is no extinguisher of debt. Debt grows—must necessarily grow—exponentially. As it has been doing for many decades.

The antidote to this poisonous system is the gold standard. However, it must be said that no gold price will cause the metal to circulate in the economy. It did not circulate when it was “cheap” 20 years ago. It did not circulate when it was “expensive” 6 years ago. It does not circulate now. It will not circulate even if it hits any of the gold bug price targets (if anything, a rapid price rise will be a powerful force keeping it out of circulation, as most people would have large taxable capital gains).

The one thing that can make gold circulate is interest.

---

For two weeks, we have been talking about a potential capitulation. The gold price has risen about $40 since then, and that of silver 85 cents.

Will the bounce continue? Have the fundamentals firmed up?

We will show graphs of the true measure of the fundamentals. But first charts of their prices and the gold-silver ratio.

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. The ratio moved down this week.

In this graph, we show both bid and offer prices for the gold-silver ratio. If you were to sell gold on the bid and buy silver at the ask, that is the lower bid price. Conversely, if you sold silver on the bid and bought gold at the offer, that is the higher offer price.

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

Here is the gold graph.

We have switched to the October contract, as the August is nearing expiry and under selling pressure.

The dollar fell this week (the mirror image of the rising price of gold). As the dollar fell, the cobasis fell—gold became less scarce.

Our calculated gold fundamental price fell a few bucks (chart here).

Now let’s look at silver.

As the dollar has dropped, the cobasis has come down (though still backwardated). Our calculated silver fundamental fell 25 cents to $17.59.

© 2017 Monetary Metals

Is The Real Dollar Pain-Trade Lower?

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,

Although I am sure they were some traders advocating shorting the US dollar into the Trump bump, they sure seemed few and far between (apart from this badass cat who nailed the trade and is now covering into the USD weakness).

In fact, when I think about the opinions from the “cool kids” over the past six months, I can only recall all-out-bulls, or unsure fence sitters. Name me a big-name US dollar bear pounding the table - none spring to mind.

And in the heyday period following Trump’s election, the US dollar bullishness was downright exuberant.

“Super dollar bull market” was a recurrent theme amongst the myriad of bulls who were convinced the US dollar was headed to the moon. Whether it was due to Trump’s supposed superb business acumen, or the acceleration of the emerging market USD debt obligation payback vicious circle, all these bulls had their own reasons why greenback would continue to appreciate.

Well, how did it turn out?

A complete dud. Trump’s inauguration proved to be the top, and it has been nothing but downhill since then. I am actually quite mad at myself, fading this consensus trade proved to be one of the greatest trades of 2017 (and yet another example of how in this day of limited alpha, the best trade is fading the crowd).

Yet the interesting part of this extended move? No one is getting excited about it.

I pulled up my composite speculative positioning of CME currency positions, and it is pretty well zero. US dollar specs are almost as flat as your uncle’s drunken campfire singing at a cottage long weekend.

Recently, two terrific, must-follow, twitter traders were discussing this situation. 13D Research, author of the terrific What I learned this week, first made a comment about the possibility of this US Dollar move continuing.

But then, Luke Gromen, who pens Forest for the Trees, chirped in with a comment I felt was especially apt.

Luke is right. No one is talking about this US dollar move continuing. I get the sense it’s actually the opposite. Most traders are still worried about the potential for the US dollar bull move to resume. If they are long any currencies, they have one finger on the sell button.

I get it. It’s tough to forget the pain from the relentless US dollar rally of the past 3 years.

When I was thinking about this situation, my mind wandered back to a MacroVoices interview with Tian Yang from Variant Perception. I had never heard Tian before, and I must say, I enjoyed his analytical approach immensely. But his comment about Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Jen’s smile theory really struck home. According to Jen, the US dollar does best when the US economy is really strong, or really weak. That immediately made intuitive sense. When the market is expecting US outperformance, the US dollar goes up because of higher rates and flows rushing into the US. During periods of economic stress, the reserve currency goes up as debt is paid down and US dollar credit is destroyed. But that has to leave a whole bunch of time when the US dollar goes down.

From 2014-2016 we were in the US outperformance period of the smile. That enthusiasm about US economic performance climaxed with Trump’s election and the fairy dust dreams about the new President’s economic prowess.

There were some pundits who believed we would switch from the positive part of the smile, to the other side, as the Fed hiked too fast, and caused a market disruption. But isn’t it more likely that this transition from one side of the smile to the other takes some time? Wouldn’t a period at the bottom of the smile be more probable?

And going back to Tian’s interview, here is a chart that shows the US dollar’s performance versus real rate differentials.

As you can see, the US dollar was way over its skis last year. And 13D’s forecast of a continued slump is by no means out of the realm of possibility to correct the difference between real rates and the US dollar.

(As an aside, if you want the full Variant Perception’s package from the interview, I uploaded it to my server and you can download it here. And while you are at it, make sure you head over the MacroVoices and help out Erik and Patrick by signing up to their weekly email. They produce this terrific show each week for free, and the size of their member list helps in attracting great guests. They won’t spam you, and not only that, it is chock full of great research pieces like the Variant Perception presentation.)

Today we have both the ECB and BoJ meeting. Could some renewed dovishness cause the US dollar to pick itself off the mat and rally a little? For sure. The US dollar is oversold and due for a bounce.

But a little part of me wonders if everyone is looking for a US dollar rally to sell into. I don’t yet know what I am going to do. I too, am looking for a better entry, but that makes me just another mope. Sometimes the best trades are the ones no one believes in, and which do not offer a clean, easy entry. Luke Gromen is right when he says there isn’t a soul alive who thinks the DXY could fall below 80. Don’t forget that markets often go to points least expected, and where they hurt the most participants. With the world massively overweight US financial assets, I almost wonder if the real US dollar pain trade is lower.

Gold- 6-year bear market ending here?

Is a new bull market in metals about to “Get Started?” Lets look at one indicator that is attempting to send a bullish signal, for the first time in 6-years.

Below looks at the Gold Futures/US Dollar ratio, since 1999 on a weekly basis-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The Gold/King Dollar ratio broke above resistance in 2001 and a strong breakout took place. For a decade, Gold was much stronger than the US$ at (1). Gold, Silver and miners did very well in this time frame. Once the ratio broke rising support in 2011, the ratio turned lower. This is where the bear market in Gold, Silver and miners started.

Currently the ratio is attempting to do something it hasn’t in the past 6-years, which is a breakout at (2). A break above resistance is the first for the ratio since the highs back in 2011. If the ratio can keep moving higher and clear the highs of last summer, it would send the first longer-term bullish message to the metals space in years.

We would be honored to have you and a Premium or Metals member, if research in the Gold, Silver and Miners is of interest to you.

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31 Fascinating Facts On The Early History Of The US Dollar

Today, we all know the U.S. dollar as an iconic currency that is recognizable to people around the world.

And while Visual Capitalist"s Jeff Desjardin has previously looked at the buying power of the U.S. dollar over time, as well as important events like the Great Depression, we have not looked at the history of the dollar itself.

How and why was it conceived, and why do we call it a “dollar” or a “buck”? How did the dollar’s early history help to shape today’s world?

Before the Dollar

For the early colonists, currency was a bit of a free-for-all.

Officially, cash was denominated in pounds, shillings, and pence, but in reality things were a different story. Cash was often scarce, and colonists needed to be innovative to fulfill transactions. At various points in time, they used tobacco, beaver skins, and wampum in the place of money. Some colonies even tried to issue their own fiat currencies – many of which went bust.

As it turned out, the Spanish dollar was often the most abundant form of cash – and this is what led to U.S. currency eventually being denominated in dollars.

The Revolution

During the American Revolution in 1775, the Continental Congress issued a money known as the Continental Currency to try and fund the war. The government printed too many, and the value of a Continental diminished rapidly.

Just five years later, after runaway inflation, the Continental was worth 2.5% of its face value. Benjamin Franklin rightly noted that the depreciation of the Continental had, in fact, acted as a tax to pay for the war. Holders of the currency – everyday people – were punished by losing massive amounts of buying power. Interestingly, this is where we get the phrase “Not worth a Continental”.

Birth of the Dollar

The failure of the Continental Currency must have been top of mind during the writing of the Constitution. A clause was even added, under Article 1, Section 10, to make sure such a failure would never happen again. It was written that states were not permitted to “coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; [or] make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.”

And so, the Coinage Act of 1792 created the U.S. dollar as a standard unit of currency. The U.S. Mint was authorized to oversee coinage, and the Act also established a penalty of death for debasing coinage issued by the Mint.

The Almighty Buck

In the 19th Century, a new slang term emerged for the dollar.

Especially in the Great Lakes area, different amounts of money were equated with animal skins. One particular reference showed that in Ohio in 1851, the skin of a muskrat was worth $0.25, and that of a doe was worth $0.50. Meanwhile, the skin of a buck was equal to the “almighty dollar” – and hence, the word “buck” became synonymous with the U.S. dollar.

The Civil War

Leading up to the Civil War, private banks around the country issued their own paper currencies.

With 10,000 or so of these currencies in circulation as the war broke out, governments soon found it very cumbersome to try and pay debts with many different types of notes. As a result, the $10 Demand Note was the first official paper currency issued in 1861 by the government to help finance the war.

The North began paying debts with a fiat currency called the “greenback”, while Confederate states issued their own paper currency as well. The latter was worthless by the time the Confederacy lost the war.

The Counterfeiting Problem

Around this time, counterfeiting was a widespread problem with greenbacks and all the private notes that were circulating. More than 1/3 of bills were fake at this time.

Sophisticated counterfeit operations were happening in British Canada, and some bank engravers would even moonlight as counterfeiters, using the same plates and dyes they had from their day job.

To deal with the problem, the Secret Service was formed in 1865.

The Modern Dollar

Counterfeiting measures have come a long way since the late 19th century. Today, it’s estimated that less than 0.01% of notes are fake.

Learn more about the modern U.S. dollar in the next part of this series.

*  *  *

The Money Project is an ongoing collaboration between Visual Capitalist and Texas Precious Metals that seeks to use intuitive visualizations to explore the origins, nature, and use of money.

Silver Elevator Keeps Falling, Report 7 May, 2017

The dollar moved strongly, now over 25mg gold and 1.9g silver. This was a holiday-shortened week, due to the Early May bank holiday in the UK.

The big news as we write this, Macron beat Le Pen in the French election. We suppose this means markets can continue to do what they wanted to do before the threat of Frexit, shutting off trade between France and the rest of Europe, and who knows what else Le Pen was plotting to do to the French people.

This will be a short Report this week, as Keith has been working hard on a paper to address the question of which metal will have the higher interest rate. Look for that tomorrow.

Below as the only true look at the supply and demand fundamental of the metals, but first, the price and ratio charts.

The Prices of Gold and Silver

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. It had another major move up this week, after a major move up last week and one the week before.

It now sits at the same level it was a year ago. If it breaks above 76, then the next resistance looks to be 80.

The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

Here is the gold graph.

The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

If we didn’t know better, we would say that as fast as the cobasis (i.e. scarcity, the red line) ran up, the price of the dollar (which is the inverse of the conventional view of the price of gold) ran up faster.

Actually, that is accurate. And consequently, our calculated fundamental price of gold fell over twenty bucks (though it’s still more than twenty bucks over the market price).

Now let’s look at silver.

The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

In silver, the same phenomenon occurred though with exaggerated degree.

Last week and the week before, we asked:

Some speculators definitely got flushed. However, the question is how many and how much?

Then we said:

Clearly it happened to more of them this week. And, unless the fundamentals get stronger, it is likely to flush even more leveraged futures positions. Our calculated fundamental price fell three cents this week, now a buck thirty under the market.

It happened to more of them this week. That’s what a rising cobasis with falling price of silver means. A selloff of futures. A flush of the leveraged speculators.

Unfortunately for them, owners of metal were also selling. Our calculated fundamental price of silver fell almost penny for penny with the market price. It remains about a buck twenty under the market.

We saw a technical analysis trader write a note this weekend. He said he plans to short silver on Monday. When the technicals and then fundamentals align, that can make for an interesting week.

Keith will be speaking at the Metal Writers Conference in Vancouver, at the end of the month.

© 2017 Monetary Metals