Traders are dumping equity protection and buting chaos protection as VIX tumbles near the year"s lows and Gold jumps back towards its 100-day moving average - and its highest level in a month.
Gold is up 9 of the last 10 days, at its highest since early Dec and testing its 100DMA... ($1292)
And while Bitcoin has stabilized, the divergence between the alt-currencies is closing...
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is down more than 15% (at the time of writing) from yesterday, and more than 30% off the peak last weekend just shy of the psychologically key 20k whole figure level (on Bitstamp). Significantly, BTCUSD has just broken upchannel support (on the weekly and daily chart), with this week"s weekly candle reversing all of last week"s gains and then some. The daily MACD is negatively crossing, which combined with the strongly downsloping daily RSI and Stochastics suggest more downward pressure today. Although bears are increasingly in control having broken the 6 week upchannel support line, with the weekly MACD blue line still sloping slightly up, BTCUSD could very well shrug off the upchannel support break this weekend, clawing back into the upchannel briefly and forming a lower high next week. If the weekly MACD blue line flattens and turns down this weekend, longer term bears will have plenty to feast on in early January.
Click here for today"s technical analysis on Ethereum (ETHUSD), Litecoin (LTCUSD)
Some stocks don’t have much to brag about over the past couple of years and below we look at one of them!
Mylan (MYL) has had a rough go of it the past two years as it lost nearly 50% of its value. During this decline could a pattern opportunity have formed. Possibly!
Below looks at MYL over the past 5-years-
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
Over the past year, MYL could be forming a bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern with a test of the neckline and falling resistance taking place at (1). If a breakout takes place here, it could attract buyers to this hard-hit stock.
Another thing that catches our attention is the large unfilled gap that took place back in 2015 at the $65 zone. Often times “Gaps” end up getting filled. If this gap would get filled, MYL would make some nice gains from current levels.
Full Disclosure- Members are long this stock with a tight stop.
Chart pattern analysis with brief commentary:
There is a ton of news and opinions about markets and stocks that make the decision-making process more difficult than it needs to be.
I believe the Power of the chart Pattern provides all you need to see what is taking place in an asset and determine the action to take.
This approach has worked well for me and our clients and I encourage you to test it for yourself.
Send an email if you would like to see sample research and take me up on a30 DAY FREE TEST DRIVE of our Premium or Weekly Research
where I provide actionable alerts on breakouts and reversals in broad market indices, sectors, commodities, the miners and select individual stocks
Email services@kimblechartingsolutions.com
Call us Toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381
Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM
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The Fed raised rates yesterday, is it necessary for them to do that? Humbly, the answer will come in time.
Below looks at the inflation indicator and how it is testing a key price level-
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
This inflation indicator (TIP/TLT) has been heading lower overall lower, inside of falling channel (1), for the past 5-years. It hit the top of the channel at the start of this year and has been heading south most of the time.
The inflation indicator is now testing this year’s lows for the third time at (2). If support would give way, it would suggest a softening in this theme.
If support would break at (2), could this indicator be questioning the idea of the need to raise interest rates? Could be….Stay tuned as we will continue to update the message coming from this indicator in weeks and months to come.
Chart pattern analysis with brief commentary:
There is a ton of news and opinions about markets and stocks that make the decision-making process more difficult than it needs to be.
I believe the Power of the chart Pattern provides all you need to see what is taking place in an asset and determine the action to take.
This approach has worked well for me and our clients and I encourage you to test it for yourself.
Send an email if you would like to see sample research and take me up on a30 DAY FREE TEST DRIVE of our Premium or Weekly Research
where I provide actionable alerts on breakouts and reversals in broad market indices, sectors, commodities, the miners and select individual stocks
Email services@kimblechartingsolutions.com
Call us Toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381
Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM
Receive daily research I post on the blog each day
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was rejected yesterday at upchannel resistance (on the weekly and daily chart), and may see a few days of profittaking as hinted by the daily MACD histogram sliding down. A stronger selloff could quickly coincide with the daily MACD negatively crossing. Nevertheless, longer term bulls will take comfort in the weekly MACD still sloping strongly up. I suspect that after the next few days of consolidation, BTCUSD bulls may try once again to reach the psychologically key 20,000 whole figure level (which BTCUSD nearly did with a rise to over 19500 last Thursday on GDAX) ahead of the highly anticipated CME Bitcoin futures launch Monday (Sunday night Chicago). For those who haven"t seen the BTCUSD price performance relative to other bubbles throughout history, or for those who are buying out of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), take a moment to review the following chart.
Ethereum (ETHUSD) is seeing strong profittaking today, forming what appears to be upchannel resistance (on the daily chart). The rally yesterday to just above 700 fulfills the 300 in gains that could have been projected based on the approximate height of the ascending triangle (as calculated from the mid May low of 100 to the triangle resistance at 400), and the point of triangle breakout at 400. After another day or so of further consolidation, ETHUSD may want to retest the same upchannel resistance at 700 especially as BTCUSD stands a decent chance of reaching for the psychologically key 20,000 whole figure level (which BTCUSD nearly did with a rise to over 19500 last Thursday on GDAX) ahead of the highly anticipated CME Bitcoin futures launch Monday (Sunday night Chicago). The weekly and daily MACD are still sloping strongly up, suggesting bulls will continue buying on pullbacks.
Click here for today"s technical analysis on USDCAD
Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.
Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has done very well over the past year, gaining over 30%. The gain is nearly 50% more than the S&P 500 during the same time period. Impressive gain and impressive relative strength compared to the S&P 500!
An important bull market test looks to be at hand for EEM this week, see chart below-
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
In 2011, EEM looks to have created a head and shoulders top, with the “right shoulder” taking place at line (1). EEM declined for the next 5-years after creating this topping pattern, falling over 40% during that time frame.
In 2015/2016, EEM looks to have created an inverse head and shoulders pattern, where a strong rally over the past 18-months has taken place off the lows. The rally took EEM back to test line (1), which was the right shoulder back in 2011. While hitting line (1) a reversal pattern (bearish wick) took place. Since hitting line (1), EEM has declined a small percent, where it finds itself testing 1-year rising channel support at (2).
The trend in EEM remains up and the small decline of late has NOT changed that trend. EEM bulls want/need to see support hold at (2). If it fails to hold, some selling pressure could take place.
Chart pattern analysis with brief commentary:
There is a ton of news and opinions about markets and stocks that make the decision-making process more difficult than it needs to be.
I believe the Power of the chart Pattern provides all you need to see what is taking place in an asset and determine the action to take.
This approach has worked well for me and our clients and I encourage you to test it for yourself.
Send an email if you would like to see sample research and take me up on a30 DAY FREE TEST DRIVE of our Premium or Weekly Research
where I provide actionable alerts on breakouts and reversals in broad market indices, sectors, commodities, the miners and select individual stocks
Email services@kimblechartingsolutions.com
Call us Toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381
Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM
Receive daily research I post on the blog each day
After a record run of muted movement, will recent volatility send negative shock waves through stock market?
The recent uptick in stock volatility has some investors on edge (OK, it is mostly just financial news editors on edge). The truth is, while volatility over the past week has seen an increase, it is not all that far away from the historical norm. Last Thursday through Monday, for example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced 3 straight “volatile” days, with daily ranges of between 1% and 1.6% on all 3 days. Looking historically, however, we find that the average daily range in the DJIA over the last 90 years is 1.6%. Even during the current bull market since 2009, the average range is 1.08%. Thus, the recent action should hardly be characterized as volatile.
The reason it perhaps seems so tumultuous is because we are emerging from a long stretch of calm in the market – record calm, at that. Prior to Thursday, the DJIA had gone 72 days without experiencing a daily range as wide as 1%. If that sounds like a long stretch, it’s because it is a record. In fact, the record prior to this recent streak was just 49 days in a run that ended in late February of this year. And prior to 2016, the record going back to 1928, according to our database, was a mere 32-day streak back in 1944 – less than half the recent streak.
Furthermore, historically, there have been just 16 streaks that have lasted as long as 21 days, i.e., 1 month.
Interestingly, this recent streak is the first of any of the 16 that saw 3 straight 1% daily ranges immediately following its culmination. So is mean-reversion starting to rear its volatile head here following the record calm? And is there a nefarious message to the sudden uptick in volatility?
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If you’re interested in the “all-access” version of our charts and research, please check out The Lyons Share. Find out what we’re investing in, when we’re getting in – and when we’re getting out. Considering that we may well be entering an investment environment tailor made for our active, risk-managed approach, there has never been a better time to reap the benefits of this service. Thanks for reading!
Year to date, Emerging markets (EEM) have lived up to their name, as they have emerged to gain much more than the S&P 500. Of late, EEM was up nearly twice that of the S&P 500 this year. (See YTD performance below)-
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
Below looks at EEM over the past 8-years and how an important test could be taking place-
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
The chart above highlights that the trend in EEM over the past two years is up. It also highlights that the trend over the past 6-year is flat, as EEM is no higher of late than it was in 2011.
The strong 12-month rally in EEM saw it hit 2011 lower highs along line (1) three weeks ago as momentum was hitting the highest levels since the 2007 highs. The softness over the past couple of weeks has EEM attempting to break rising support at (2), while momentum is attempting to the do the same.
EEM has been in a leadership role the past two years. What it does at (2) could send an important message about Emerging markets and other global markets around the world.
Emerging markets about to “Sub-merge?” Two weeks soft action does NOT prove a trend change has taken place. Further weakness at (2), could bring on more selling, so keep a close eye on what EEM does the next couple of weeks.
Chart pattern analysis with brief commentary:
There is a ton of news and opinions about markets and stocks that make the decision-making process more difficult than it needs to be.
I believe the Power of the chart Pattern provides all you need to see what is taking place in an asset and determine the action to take.
This approach has worked well for me and our clients and I encourage you to test it for yourself.
Send an email if you would like to see sample research and take me up on a30 DAY FREE TEST DRIVE of our Premium or Weekly Research
where I provide actionable alerts on breakouts and reversals in broad market indices, sectors, commodities, the miners and select individual stocks
Email services@kimblechartingsolutions.com
Call us Toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381
Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM
Receive daily research I post on the blog each day
Gold futures found itself in dangerous waters during the 12/05 session as GC price action temporarily broke below 1,267 – a key support level from gold’s last two swing lows on 10/6 and 10/27. After closing at 1,268.40, GC became the chart of the day, with price sitting just above support trendlines on both the short and long-term. Having tread water in place by chopping around in a sideways price channel for the past two months, GC futures need to bounce immediately or may begin a lengthy plunge with a clear-cut downside drowning target of 1,215.
Silver futures continued to sell-off for the 6th consecutive losing session; swiftly breaking down below two previous major swing lows at 16.444 (10/09) and 16.282 (08/07). SI’s short-term technical profile has become very bearish, with silver futures floating around in ‘no man’s land’ without any meaningful support levels in sight. While a small bounce may cool-off the current sell-off - and attempt to push ‘poor man’s gold’ prices back up into 16.50-17.00 - what’s more likely is that silver futures will gravitate towards their next major support levels. If so, SI will be magnetically drawn down to 15.55 like Magneto lazily beckoning for a spoon.
Platinum futures dropped for the third straight session, before finding support at the key trendline connecting the last two major swings at 895.40 (07/11) and of 906.50 (10/06). The next few sessions will likely determine whether platinum bounces back up towards 960 and remains in a sideways price channel, or if it confirms the Super DMI™ bearish crossover and heads even lower to test long-term support at 895-905. Price action will see a strong bounce at those levels, but a break below 895 means that 830-870 is where PL futures will be heading in early 2018.
Dr. Copper’s technicals are the only thing we would dare think to possibly know better than Gundlach; well, maybe how to handle frustartion with a pathetically hollow fourth estate of mainstream media and maybe haircuts, but we digress and absolutely adore the art-loving Buffalo Bill suffering true Bond King.
Copper futures were simply obliterated, suffering their largest loss in a single session since 12/14/11. If price continue to head lower over the course of this week, extremely strong support at 2.906 should provide a well-bid bounce back up towards 3.05. If not, Copper may only delay an inevitable move down towards long-term support at 2.55 now that price has confirmed the Super DMI™ bearish crossover.
Check out Fibozachi.com to learn about modern technical analysis and trading indicators that actually work.
Ole Doc Copper has performed very well over the past 2-years, as it has rallied 50%. Maybe the rally has been sent a positive message about the worlds macro picture? Could have and maybe stocks liked it.
Below look at the price action of Doc Copper over the past 5-years and why price action of late might be something one might not want to hide from–
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
The 24-month counter-trend rally took Doc Copper to test 5-year falling resistance at (1), where it attempted three times to breakout. While attempting to breakout, Doc Copper created several bearish wicks (bearish reversal patterns) at (1).
The rally pushed momentum to the highest levels since the 2011 peak of late, which looks to be turning lower.
Doc Copper this week, could be breaking 6-month rising support at (2).
Time will tell if ole Doc Copper is sending an important global macro message to stocks and about global inflation or lack of. Stick your head in the sand and ignore the message from Doc Copper? I am not at this time.
Chart pattern analysis with brief commentary:
There is a ton of news and opinions about markets and stocks that make the decision-making process more difficult than it needs to be.
I believe the Power of the chart Pattern provides all you need to see what is taking place in an asset and determine the action to take.
This approach has worked well for me and our clients and I encourage you to test it for yourself.
Send an email if you would like to see sample research and take me up on a trial of our Premium or Weekly Research where I provide actionable alerts on breakouts and reversals in broad market indices, sectors, commodities, the miners and select individual stocks
Email services@kimblechartingsolutions.com
Call us Toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381
Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM
Receive daily research I post on the blog each day
2017 hasn’t been an “easy ride” for Harley Davidson (HOG) as it has declined the majority of the year, while the broad market has power higher.
Below takes a look at HOG over the past 9-years and applies the Power of the Pattern to it-
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
The 25%+ decline this year in HOG took it down to test 8-year rising support and the bottom of a potential bullish falling wedge pattern at (1).
Since testing dual support at (1), a breakout of the bullish falling wedge is taking place at (2).
Full disclosure- Members bought HOG at is was testing this dual support at (1). This type of set up, a decline that tests long-term support in combo with a bullish falling wedge pattern, continues to provide good risk/reward potential.
Chart pattern analysis with brief commentary:
There is a ton of news and opinions about markets and stocks that make the decision-making process more difficult than it needs to be.
I believe the Power of the chart Pattern provides all you need to see what is taking place in an asset and determine the action to take.
This approach has worked well for me and our clients and I encourage you to test it for yourself.
Send an email if you would like to see sample research and take me up on a trial of our Premium or Weekly Research where I provide actionable alerts on breakouts and reversals in broad market indices, sectors, commodities, the miners and select individual stocks
Email services@kimblechartingsolutions.com
Call us Toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381
Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM
Receive daily research I post on the blog each day
