Macron Approval Rating Crashes Twice As Fast As Trump's

It appears that Trump is no longer the president with the fastest plunge in his approval rating: that honor has now fallen to France"s Emanuel Macron, who since his dramatic victory in the May 7 presidential election, has seen his popularity plummet, and according to a a new poll conducted by Ifop for Le Journal du Dimanche, most French voters are now dissatisfied with Emmanuel Macron’s performance, a dramatic decline for the president who basked in a landslide election victory less than four months ago.

The poll showed Macron’s “dissatisfaction rating” soaring to 57%, from 43% in July. At the same time, those satisfied with Macron tumbled from 54% in July (and 62% at election) to just 40% in August, a stunning 22% drop over three months...  which is twice as fast as Donald Trump"s fall from grace. According to Gallup, on Inauguration Day, 45% of Americans said they approved of Trump and since then, the number has declined by 11% to 34%, which again is only half as bad as Macron popularity plunge. The Ifop poll also showed the cumulative drop in Macron’s popularity ratings since May was far bigger than that of previous Socialist president Francois Hollande over the same period, who is best known for achieving the lowest approval record of any recent French president on record. As such, one wonders how Macron"s approval rating in a few short years can even be positive.

Quoted by Reuters, French government spokesman Christophe Castaner said the ruling party was going through a "tricky time", but added that displeasing some people was a price worth paying if the government wanted to push through reforms. The only problem is the government will most likely not be able to push through reforms, even as Macron"s approval continues its sharp descent. Cartaner also told BFM TV that “yes, we are encountering difficulties, but you cannot just spend your time only looking at polls when you’re in government. We are there to transform the country. Our country needs us to take risks, and we are taking risks." Spoken like a true megalomaniac.

As for Macron -  who is currently midway through a schedule of official visits to various European capitals and who most recently got into a violent feud with Poland when he criticized the Warsaw government for its "non-European ideals" to which Polish PM Beata Syzdlo slammed "arrogant" Macron saying "you won"t rule Europe" - has suffered a number of setbacks since being elected, including tough debates in parliament over labor reform, a standoff with the military and cuts to housing assistance. Then, just last week, Macron became the target of social media scorn and humor, while political opponents criticized the president when it emerged he spent €26,000 ($31,000) on makeup during his first 100 days in office and his office also backed down on plans to give his wife a formal, paid role after a public backlash.

In any case, the latest polling is terrible news for the young new president who was expected to inspire his country with hope and confidence yet appears to be doing just the opposite: Bernard Sananes, head of French polling company Elabe, said the latest survey could encourage Macron’s political opponents, after his party won a commanding majority in parliament.

“It could mean, for the government, that the opposition mobilizes itself again,” Sananes told BFM TV.

It wasn"t just Macron: the poll also showed a steep drop in approval for Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, with 47% expressing satisfaction with him - down 9% from last month.

As Reuters adds, Macron - France"s youngest leader since Napoleon - faces a big test next month when the far-left CGT trade union leads a rally to protest against plans to deregulate the jobs market. "Now is the key time, with the labor executive orders to be presented," said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Geneva-based investment firm Prime Partners, who has an "underweight" position on French equities.

French President Macron’s Short-Lived Honeymoon

The former Rothschild banker, economy minister’s honeymoon began by defeating Marine Le Pen decisively on May 7.

Two weeks later, opinion polls showed 62% of respondents viewed him favorably.

His fall from grace was swift, an early August YouGov poll, showing his approval rating plunged to 36% – the lowest ever for a French president this early in his tenure.

He’s accused of ignoring his core supporters. WikiLeaks published thousands of embarrassing emails relating to his campaign and earlier.

Italian psychiatrist Dr. Adriano Segator called him a “dangerous psychopath,” saying “we have a case of full-blown narcissism.”

“When he talks about the poor or insults the workers of northern France, reducing them to smokers and alcoholics, when he denigrates women, lowering them to the level of the ignorant, we have returned to the ideas perfectly explained by Jacques Lacan.”

“Emmanuel Macron, like all psychopaths, is highly dangerous.” He’s a neoliberal reactionary, representing destructive establishment interests, fundamentally against ordinary French citizens and others abroad, allied with US imperialism.

He favors greater privatizations for maximum profits over popular rights and needs.

He supports corporate tax cuts, lower labor costs aiding business at workers’ expense, reduced social spending and deregulation – claiming neoliberal harshness will stimulate economic growth.

Military cuts he proposed got armed forces chief Pierre de Villiers to resign, saying the army had already “given everything away,” adding he would not let himself be “screwed this way.”

French political analyst Maxim Sokolov said his plunge in popular support is “doubly significant, considering that no force majeure circumstances (economic crisis, major terrorist act, military catastrophe, etc.) took place” on his watch so far.

Falling from public grace is one thing. If France’s military rejects him, he’s got a major problem on his hands.

According to Sokolov, he hasn’t done “anything terrible in practical terms” so far. “The truth is much worse than that.”

“He did nothing at all, continuing to make spectacular speeches against pompous scenery, as if the election campaign did not end on May 7, but will continue eternally.”

His rapid plunge in popularity shows most people in France aren’t buying it.

Macron Spent $30,000 On Makeup In Three Months

One year ago, when he was still president, Francois Hollande scandalized the establishment when it emerged that amid record unemployment, painful labor reforms, a sliding economy and the most serious social unrest in decades, the French president"s personal hairdressed was getting paid a gross salary by the state of ~$11,000 per month (more than a European parliament member). As the media reported at the time, "the hairdresser, who the leaked contract names only as Oliver B, is set to earn half a million pounds over the course of Hollande’s current premiership, in exchange for being available at every waking moment and signing a contract promising not to speak about his position."

The fact that this was probably not the best way to spend French taxpayers" money was confirmed this past summer, when Hollande"s approval rating was so low, the socialist president did not even run for re-election: a first in French history. Sadly, this was lost on Hollande"s former Minister of Economy - and current president - Emmanuel Macron who failed to learn from the mistakes of his former boss.

According to French magazine Le Point, French President Emmanuel Macron spent €26,000 - over $30,000 - on makeup in his first three months as leader of the country.

As Politico adds, "Macron’s personal makeup artist put in two claims for payment, one for €10,000 and another for €16,000, for doing his makeup during his travels and ahead of press conferences."

When asked about this abuse of taxpayer funds, The Elysee Palace said in response: “We called in a contractor as a matter of urgency.” Still, aides said that spending on makeup would be “significantly reduced” in future, Le Point reported.

It gets better: according to the report, the amount spent was less than under Macron’s predecessors. Francois Hollande, for example, was said to spend €30,000 per quarter on makeup, including the salary of a makeup artist.  Which means that in addition to his hairdresser who ran just under €10,000, the former French president spent over quarter million dollars in taxpayer funds every year to look good. One almost wonders why he left the French political scene with an approval rating in the single digits. As for Hollande"s arguably even more vain predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy spent slightly less on his makeup then Macron: €8,000 a month.

The news comes as Macron’s popularity is plunging according to a new Harris Poll. Only 37% of voters approve of the job Macron is doing, down from a high of 57% after his election in May. Today"s incident will not help his popularity.

Macron"s popularity collapse means that his fall from grace was even faster than that of Trump, although oddly enough, one will not read much, if anything, about that particular collapse in the objective and unbiased western press. It could be a problem for France, however, during the next election when that one third of eligible voters who did not vote for either Macron or le Pen, finally decide to vote against the establishment cadidate.

Which Is Worse? America Or France?

Authored by Bonner & Partners" Bill Bonner, annotated by Acting-Man"s Pater Tenebrarum,

French Fraud

“Which is worse? America or France?” The question must be put in context. We were invited to dinner with local farmers last night. Jean-Yves and Arlette live in a modest house in the nearby town – an efficient and cozy place built about 25 years ago. They’ve added a solarium to the back, where we had dinner.

FAF – French-American Friendship. These days it’s a “which is worse” competition… [PT]

Arlette operates a dairy farm left to her by her parents. Jean-Yves runs a cattle and cereal farm that was in his family. A son and his wife moved into the farmhouse in Jean-Yves’ place. Anticipating retirement, he and his wife moved into town.

“You have Trump. But we have Macron,” Jean-Yves said. On balance, France probably comes out ahead on that score. Macron is young, smart, and good-looking.

“Yes, but he is a fraud,” Jean-Yves continued. “He claims he will change things. But he is mainstream. Besides, I don’t think he can change things even if he wanted to.”

Over the years, we’ve commented on many public figures here at the Diary. We can’t remember one we didn’t consider a fraud in some way. And so far, we don’t think we were wrong about any of them.

French President Emmanuel Macron is hardly an outsider or a rebel. He is a graduate of France’s elite École Nationale d’Administration. And he was finance minister under the previous president. So entrenched and unyielding is the French bureaucracy – France’s Deep State – that it would take a real firecracker to change it. Mr. Macron is not that kind of a guy.

The French Macronite. G.W. Bush said it first by the way: “We know that human beings and fish can co-exist peacefully.” Thanks to Macron we now know why: they’re practically brothers and sisters. And don’t forget the trees, with their deep roots. Just don’t cross the French bureaucracy or try to actually do something useful, like working. They’re going to punish you, whether you’re a brother, a sister, or a fish with aspirations to the universal. Your best option is probably to try and become part of that which escapes them… unless you like nightmares of course. [PT]

“I wanted to get someone to work on the gardens,” Elizabeth explained.

“So I called a guy who has a lawn maintenance company. He said he would cut the grass. But he won’t cut down the trees because that would have to be subcontracted, and that would put his revenues over the allowable level.”

“You mean he’s not allowed to make more money?”

“That’s right. If he makes more than a certain amount, he’s required to reorganize his business… and apparently, that’s a nightmare. There must be people in Paris who are spending their time thinking of ways to make it difficult for people to do business.”

“Nightmare?” Jean-Yves interjected.

“Farming is a nightmare in France. We work seven days a week… because we can’t get anyone to help. Or more specifically, we don’t dare get anyone to help. Because if we hire someone, it’s almost impossible to fire him.”

“It’s worse than that,” Arlette added.

“Farming is so hard… with so many directives from the government – from bureaucrats who’ve never actually seen a cow – that young people don’t want to do it. I don’t blame them. I know what’s going to happen.”

Typical sleep period of a French farmer’s wife, captured by John Henry Fuseli back in 1781. Plus ça change…  According to a Wikipedia entry, scientific research helpfully suggests that “nightmares may have many causes”. The French bureaucracy is apparently one of them. [PT]

This Too Shall Pass

In France, half the people work hard; the other half try to stop them. But the typical French family is more prudent than its American counterpart. It’s seen governments come and go.

The Third Republic fell in 1940. The Fourth Republic fell in 1958. The Fifth Republic will probably fall in the coming financial crisis. French currencies come and go, too.

When we first visited, many years ago, it had only recently replaced the old franc with the new franc – worth 100 old francs. “That loaf of bread will be 500 francs,” a baker might tell you. Then, in 2000, the French ditched the franc for the euro.

There is one thing French governments have been really good at ever since the French Revolution: utterly destroying the value of the currency in the shortest time possible. They may be complete bunglers otherwise, but they are definitely world class experts  with respect to this particular task. There were occasional attempts to become responsible by anchoring the franc to gold, but these periods obviously didn’t last very long. Nowadays investors can no longer make small fortunes out of big ones by investing in the French franc, but Mario Draghi’s ECB is eagerly trying to recreate this excellent opportunity by running its printing presses with the utmost alacrity. [PT] – click to enlarge.

The French know something Americans don’t: This too shall pass. It has made them cautious. Consumption, especially the conspicuous kind, is not as appreciated here as in the United States. There are fewer malls. Fewer ways to spend money. And less credit.

The government is about as insolvent in France as in the U.S. But the average family carries less debt. France also has another big advantage. It may have a large and costly welfare state, but it has only a small warfare state. The French military still meddles overseas, but on a small scale.

French government debt as a percentage of GDP is actually slightly below the US public debt-to-GDP ratio. It is light years from the 60% ratio stipulated by the Maastricht treaty though and its magnitude is probably already beyond the point of no return by now, as long term economic growth typically collapses once the debtberg becomes this large. Besides, the French economy has been regulated and taxed to death anyway. [PT] – click to enlarge.

The scale of America’s meddling, on the other hand, is colossal. The annual cost of its wars, military spending, foreign aid, and various security agencies and initiatives is almost $1 trillion… and rising.

Here’s President Trump explaining recently to evangelical media mogul Pat Robertson why Vladimir Putin was more likely to favor Hillary Clinton over him in the 2016 election:

“It’s something that you don’t like talking about, but again we are the most powerful country in the world, and we are getting more and more powerful because I’m a big military person.”

 

Big Military Person, Field Marshal Donald Trump and the US debtberg side by side. This is not a combination that inspires much confidence (mind, we are still glad that war harpy Hillary was deflected by the deplorable voter horde). [PT] – click to enlarge.

Win-Lose Spending

Any military spending you don’t need to defend the country is wasted… at best. Since the U.S. faces no serious enemies, most of its empire budget contributes nothing to either prosperity or security.

It is win-lose spending – from the pockets of the plain people to the pockets of the rich and powerful. Perhaps the Deep State insiders are grateful; perhaps not. It is a shame the president doesn’t read history. At least then he’d put an ironic fillip on the “big military person” phrase.

He would know that every “big military person” in the past – from Bonaparte to Tojo – was either an embarrassment to his country or a disaster… and often both. Excess military spending almost always leads to adventurism, war, and catastrophe.

France… the U.S. Which is worse? It is hard to say.

Putin, Trump, And "My Guy" Macron

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

France"s president is lauded in the media for talking tough with his Russian counterpart, but behind the hype may be signs of a new alignment...

The three-hour face-off between Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron in Versailles offered some fascinating geopolitical shadow play.

Macron went so far as to say that, “No major problem in the world can be solved without Russia.” On Syria’s war, which topped their agenda, he said it needs “an inclusive political solution.” While on terrorism, his guest offered: “It is impossible to fight a terrorist threat by dismantling the statehood of those countries that already suffer from some internal problems and conflicts.”

That’s hardly straight from the standard establishment playbook. More like a slight variation on 300 years of Franco-Russian diplomacy.

Putin and Macron got together to inaugurate an exhibition at the Grand Trianon in Versailles, in partnership with the Hermitage in St Petersburg, celebrating the 300th anniversary of Peter the Great’s visit to France – which proved one of the founding stones of a complex cultural-political cross-fertilization.

Peter not only drew on the royal palace of Versailles as part of the inspiration for his new capital, St Petersburg, he also modernized the entire empire using many of the Enlightenment ideals that first took root in France. It was under Peter’s rule that Russians were indelibly imprinted with a European identity.

Connections with current geopolitical juncture enhance the Versailles face-off’s appeal.

The St Petersburg Economic Forum – where quite a few CEOs from large European companies will be discussing business in Russia – starts later this week.

Late last week, a Nato summit in Brussels and a G7 summit in Taormina busted open deep divisions in the Western front, essentially pitting the EU against Donald Trump.

To say that the vast EU bureaucracy has been horrified is an understatement. In places like the Egmont – the Royal Institute for International Relations in Brussels – the consensus might best be summarized as: Europeans would only matter if they put in a US$100 billion order for US defense equipment (each, of course), and stopped whining about the climate.

As this is not happening, the letter of the law is that every Nato member must spend 2% of GDP on defense, and “bad, bad” Germany should stop selling cars to the US.

No wonder then that a common European viewpoint is begging to emerge after some serious discussions inside the EU, which is that the only way out is for Europe to get its act together – politically, economically and militarily.

And it’s up to the Franco-German power couple to show the path to the region’s real strategic autonomy.

That’s the gist of the extraordinary statement by Chancellor Angela Merkel: “The times in which we can entirely depend on others are gone. This, I have experienced in the last few days. We Europeans must take our destiny in our own hands.”

This would suggest that not only are there a few icebergs blocking the Atlanticist channels, there must also be a serious reappraisal under way of Europe’s relationship with Russia. (There are no significant German or French business interests that want sanctions against Russia to persist.)

Merkel could not have gone out on this limb unless she was fully supported domestically, and prepared to position the economic might of Berlin at the vanguard of this “Reformation.”

And that’s really the big story following the show of irrelevance at the G7 in Taormina.

Which is where Emmanuel Macron comes in.

All hail the Philosopher King

The supine French media – largely controlled by a handful of banking, financial and telecom interests – has gone ga ga over Macron’s handling of what is a de facto “presidential monarchy.”

Only the terminally naïve would deny that Macron was the candidate of globalized Atlanticist elites in thrall to the diktats of the financial system. As a bonus, he also dutifully follows the standard Russophobia – as in his charges against Moscow of pursuing a “hybrid strategy, combining military intimidation and an information war.”

Macron was skillfully sold as an “outsider” – yet he is backed by the ultimate French insider A-list. Its members include the Rothschilds; the Montaigne Institute; the Saint-Simon Foundation; the Terra Nova think tank; insurance giant AXA; Jacques Attali; Alain Minc; LVMH boss Bernard Arnault (also a media tycoon); and telecom and media billionaire Patrick Drahi.

He is, according to an elite insider cited by Le Monde, a fantasy come true for members of Le Siècle – the premier elite club in Paris: “A left-winger implementing a pro-business policy.”

Nuances make “project Macron” even more attractive. Because he studied philosophy and was an assistant to the revered Paul Ricoeur, Macron has been extolled as a Philosopher King in the Platonic tradition. And that was even before his show-stopping initial performance on the global stage – yes, the Alpha Male Handshake Battle with Trump.

It gets quirkier. Ecstatic intellectual Macronites even attest he combines the burning ambition of Alcibiades – a precociously talented Athenian general with a penchant for political maneuvering – with the wisdom of Socrates. Well, at least Macron seems to prefer reading to tweeting and being fed one-line bullet points by his minions.

It’s always enlightening to remember that the Philosopher King, as Plato conceived it, was not exactly a democrat. After all, Plato considered “the people” as something like a “huge beast,” filled with irrational passions, and unworthy of comparison with the demonstrative knowledge espoused by a lover of ideas.

Macron’s unbridled – Platonic? – ambition should not be underestimated. Putin, a master of cunning, did detect it in Versailles. Trump tried to charm him, calling Macron “my guy” in the presidential race. Macron, described by his circle as supremely confident, is sure he may be able to charm/bend Merkel – arguably a decaying quantity – into a “Leader of the West” Philosopher King role.

No wonder Macron is an EU superstar. He is seen as a savior because he embodies their ultimate wishful thinking that one day, inside the EU, inside the UN, in the G7, and even in Nato, globalized Europeans will be undivided on defense, trade, foreign policy – and their own interests.

France Confirms No Traces Of Russian Hackers In Macron Campaign Cyber-Attack

In a blow to the anti-Russia narrative being spewed by any and everyone in the western establishment (most recently Hillary again), the head of the French National Agency of Information Systems Security (ANSSI) told AP that France has found no traces of Russian hackers in a cyberattack on President Emmanuel Macron"s campaign (we wonder if the result would have been the same if he, like Hillary, had lost).

French Intelligence Head: there is absolutely no evidence of Russian involvement in French Elex hacking. Hack was crude; could be anyone pic.twitter.com/MCpyX87PH8

— Murad Gazdiev (@MuradGazdiev) June 1, 2017

Right after the event, it was claimed (by officials and the media lapdogs) that Russian hacking group called APT28 was responsible for the cyberattack on Macron"s presidential campaign.

However, according to ANSSI (the French cybersecurity agency has been investigating the attack) chief Guillaume Poupard,

the hacker attack on Macron"s campaign "was so generic and simple that it could have been practically anyone."

He told AP that it "means that we can imagine that it was a person who did this alone. They could be in any country."

Of course, given Putin"s meeting with Macron this week, we are sure the narrative remains alive and well and Putin must have strong-armed Macron to deny this.

As a reminder, the leak of Macron campaign data contained 9 gigabytes of emails, images and attachments dating back several months. At the time, the French authorities called on the national media not to report the contents of the leak, saying that doing so would violate election rules to stop campaigning a day ahead of an election. The candidate also barred RT and the Russian news agency Sputnik from his campaign HQ, accusing them of spreading false information about him. His team failed to provide any examples of such misreporting.

"It Wasn't Innocent": Macron Says Famous Trump Handshake "Was About Getting Respect"

Of all the sights during Trump"s first trip abroad, his handshake with France"s youngest ever president, Emanual Macron, was the most memorable as well as symbolic. At their first meeting ahead of a NATO summit in Brussels on Thursday, the two men locked hands for so long and hard, their knuckles turned white. When Trump tried to let go first, the French leader held the shake for a few seconds more. Both men’s jaws seemed to clench.

With the handshake prompting a flurry of interpretative media reports, and on Sunday Macron told France"s Le Journal du Dimanche, that his now famous white-knuckle handshake showdown with U.S. counterpart Donald Trump was "a moment of truth", designed to show that he"s no pushover. Macron also said that "my handshake with him, it wasn"t innocent" according to the AP.

Macron said that he wanted to "show he would not make small concessions, not even symbolic ones, but also not overdo things".

Macron also told the French newspaper that his approach to the encounter had been about getting respect.

"Donald Trump, the Turkish president or the Russian president see things in terms of power relationships, which doesn"t bother me. I don"t believe in diplomacy through public criticism but in my bilateral dialogues I don"t let anything pass. That is how you get respect."

Trump"s hand contact with foreign leaders has been closely scrutinized since he took power. Memorable episodes include nearly tearing out Japan PM Shinzo Abe"s arm during their first meeting in the White House which started with a bizarre 19 second handshake, refusing to shake Angela Merkel"s hand in March, and a "clever neutralization" by Justin Trudeau during their first handshake encounter.

Macron's "Victory For The World" Sparks $300 Million Panic-Dump In Gold Futures

Two words - "priced in."

Despite what Hillary Clinton proclaimed "a victory for the world"...

Victory for Macron, for France, the EU, & the world.

Defeat to those interfering w/democracy. (But the media says I can"t talk about that)

— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) May 7, 2017

Macron"s win in the French presidential election has left capital markets with a whole lot of nothing...

EURUSD managed to run a few stops above 1.10 but went nowhere...

EURJPY (which has been higher beta throughout the turmoil) did vacillate a little but the size of the move is very modest...

S&P futures opened with a spike but are rapidly fading back...to unchanged

But there is one market that saw a sizable move (and heavy volume - standard $300 million notional dump into extremely thin markets).

But that is bouncing back too.

So - all in all, a big anti-climax. But of course with SNB and BOJ buying to come, who knows where we open at 930am ET tomorrow...

Belgian Press: Macron Has Between 63% And 64% Of The Vote

While French pollsters and poli-pundits are prohibited from providing "hot-takes" or preliminary exit-polls ahead of the closing of polls at 8pm local time, the Belgian press is not similarly constrained, and according to L"Echo, citing early exit polls, Macron would win the vote with between 63% and 64% of the vote, while empty ballots would represents about 10%.

Entre 63% et 64% pour #Macron et 10% de blancs et nuls #sondage sortie des urnes https://t.co/U1u9E7l263 #Presidentielle2017 pic.twitter.com/8y3MA9pXOS

— L"Echo (@lecho) May 7, 2017

The Belgian newspaper adds that, as noted earlier, according to figures from the Ministry of the Interior, the participation rate in metropolitan France at 5pm amounted to 65.30%, the lowest participation rate in decades. It also adds that the abstention rate in today"s vote is expected to reach 25% to 27% on the day.

Still, as the Telegraph cautions, while it was thought that Mr Macron could build a larger voting base than Ms Le Pen - as he was expected to mop up votes in the second round from those who support mainstream Right and Left candidates in the first - it appeared last night that a large number of supporters for the conservative, Francois Fillon, and the far-Left Jean-Luc Melenchon stayed home on election day.  And a vast number chose to spoil their ballots or abstain at the polls - as many as 29% of voters, according to one estimate.

Furthermore, take such early forecasts with a grain of salt. As Bloomberg"s European analyst Maxime Sbaihi writes, "French authorities" warning: no "reliable" estimate can be made before 7.45pm. Don"t trust what you see before that."

French authorities" warning: no "reliable" estimate can be made before 7.45pm. Don"t trust what you see before that. https://t.co/MzchgBOqdj pic.twitter.com/XmGpkH6VNE

— Maxime Sbaihi (@MxSba) May 7, 2017

He also provides the following breakdown of how to read the final score:

How to interpret #Macron"s score tonight?

• bad < 55% < weak < 60% < fair enough < 63% < landslide < 65% < plebiscite

How to interpret #LePen"s score tonight?

• 45% > success > 40% > passable > 37% > meager > 35% > FN mutiny

* * *

Some other highlights: a timelapse clip showing a Paris polling station:

The Telegraph also reports that Libération newspaper says it is boycotting the electoral events of Marine Le Pen this evening - whether she wins or loses - in solidarity with other French and foreign media outlets who have been refused access to them.

The left-wing daily says it will not carry any coverage of the events, during which Ms Le Pen is due to make a speech after the election results are announced, because the Front National has refused access to the gathering in a park in the east of Paris tonight to about a dozen media organisations. "These anti-democratic measures, which are also contrary to the right to keep the public informed, must stop, as must the intimidation of journalists in (Le Pen) political rallies," wrote senior Libération editor Johan Hufnagel.

Sell Euros - It&#039;s That Time Of Year Again

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,

Remember how a couple of weeks ago investors were scrambling to buy Euro currency protection in front of the French election? Today, worries concerning tomorrow"s second round between Le Pen and Macron are extinct (even with today"s leaks). Macron’s win has pretty well been priced in.

I don’t have a forecast regarding the outcome of the election. I am not making some bold Trump-like upset prediction. The polls have Macron winning, and that’s the most likely result.

But I wonder if we aren’t setting up for a buy-the-rumour-sell-the-news reaction.

Last month, while dreams of a Le Pen win filled investors’ nightmares, the Euro was on offer. It declined from 1.09 to 1.055. On election day, as the results were announced, the Euro spiked higher, retracing the entire decline.

That behaviour will most likely not be replayed after the next round. Regardless of whether Macron or Le Pen wins this week-end, the reaction might be to sell the Euro. Let’s not forget the ECB is still actively monetizing their balance sheet with a massive quantitative easing program, while the Federal Reserve is pushing to reduce the size of theirs. Yeah, I know the Euro is cheap, but there is no catalyst to cause a large rally right now. The political risk has by no means gone away. Italy is next up on the block, and their dire financial situation makes Italy potentially even more worrisome than France. And even with a Macron win, nothing has been solved in Europe. A cheap Euro will be continue to be one of the easiest ways to postpone the inevitable.

I understand that if you look a little farther out, an argument could be made that the next big move from the Fed will be to slow down their tightening pace and for the ECB to ease up on their accommodation, but that’s a story for next quarter, or maybe even later in the year. Like Augustine said, “Lord grant me chastity, just not yet!” For now, with more Euros being created and less U.S. dollars in circulation, the trend is towards a weaker Euro.

But the real kicker on why this latest Euro rally might stall, was pointed out by the terrific Nordea Bank strategist Martin Enlund.

The Euro has a strong seasonality pattern to decline in the month of May.

Over the past dozen years, the Euro has declined an average of 1.88% during the month of May. If you remove the crazy 2009 episode, the decline would be even greater.

Right now with Macron exuberance filling the air, the Euro is bid. Yet I am not optimistic that the current Euro rally will accelerate. I suspect it was merely a short covering rally on news that Le Pen did not sweep into power.

I am using this rise to sell into. I still like shorting EURGBP best, but at this point, I am adding an outright short EURUSD position.

The technical longer term trend is down, the fundamentals still dictate a lower Euro, and now we have seasonality working in our favour. A stab on the short side seems like the right move.

Path To Le Pen Victory: What Would It Take?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Recent opinion polls for round two of the French election on May 7 show Emanuel Macron with 59-60% and Marine Le Pen 40-41%.

Le Pen is trending up from April 24 results that were as low as 36-37%.

Still, Le Pen has a long way to go. Can she close the gap? How?

French Election Polls

The above from French Election Polls on Wikipedia.

Results show the two candidates combined only got 45% of the vote in the first round. Apathy and distrust are strong.

Political Ambush

On Wednesday, April 27, Macron met with striking Whirlpool workers at a planned event in Amiens, Macron’s hometown. In a surprise political ambush, Le Pen showed up first and was greeted with cheers and selfie opportunities.

Macron Faces Hostile Crowd

The most recent poll show Macron falling below 60%. There may be more fallout from the ambush coming up. Even if one believes that support for Le Pen is a bit understated, picking up another 7-9% is a tough act to expect.

Close the Gap? How?

It’s possible Le Pen closes the gap, in a roundabout way: abstentions. Eurointelligence explains.

The researcher Serge Galam confirms what we suspected all along: it does not take much for Marine Le Pen to win if voters abstain. Galam looked into what it takes for her to win under different abstention scenarios. He starts with the vote intentions as suggested by the polls, 42% for Le Pen and 58% for Emmanuel Macron. Then, if 90% of the FN voters go to vote but only 65% of those for Macron, Le Pen would end up winning with 50.07%. For Macron the threshold to win is thus 65.17%. This threshold is even higher the closer the two get in the polls. Assuming Le Pen wins two points in the polls and gets 44% of voters intentions, then the threshold for Macron would be 70.71%. So for 2 extra points in the voters intentions for Le Pen the barrier for Macron to win rises by 5 percentage points. We know that the voters behind Le Pen are much more loyal and steadfast than the votes for Macron. Many backed Macron unenthusiastically to block Le Pen. Since the first round, there is a clear rise in aversion against Macron. The absence of a clear backing from Mélenchon and the hashtag #SansMoiLe7Mai on twitter give solidarity to those who consider abstaining, Le Figaro explains. Students from schools and universities mobilized yesterday for a ni-ni: a no to Le Pen and her nationalism, and a no to Macron as a “boss”.

Ni-Ni Mobilized, SansMoiLe7Mai

A ni-ni is “neither nor”. SansMoiLe7Mai translates as “Without Me May 7”.

Abstentions

An amazing 71-80% of those who supported Benoît Hamon are for Macron, with as low as 1% for Le Pen. But Hamon only received 6.36% of the vote in round one.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon received 19.58% of the vote while François Fillon received 20.01%. Those are the votes that will matter most. It is difficult to judge the likelihood of that combined 39.58% block of disenfranchised voters does indeed vote in round two.

Looking at the first set of polls at the top, somewhere between 17% and 29% of the electorate plans to abstain. The average of 22%, 29%, and 17% is 22.67%. Those abstainers are already factored into the 59-41% poll estimate for May 7.

Voting Intention Averages

• On average, 39.33% of Mélenchon supporters claim they will abstain. 39.33% of 19.58% is 7.66%.


• On average, 30.67% of Fillon supporters claim they will abstain. 30.67% of 20.01% is 6.14%.


• On average, 24.33% of Hamon supporters claim they will abstain. 24.33% of 6.36% is 1.55%.

Curiously, the combined abstainers from the Mélenchon plus Fillon plus Hamon camp is only 15.35% whereas the average overall abstention percentage is 22.67%.

That margin says suggests there is an extra pool of voters who intend to sit this out. Assuming Le Pen supporters are more enthusiastic, the extra block of abstainers must come primarily from those who voted for Macron but now intend to sit it out.

Determining Questions

1. Will enough weak Macron supporters turn up to vote?


2. Will the “ni-ni” campaign have an impact that does not show up in the polls?


3. Is there a pool of Le Pen supporters who simply do not tell pollsters their intention?


4. Will Macron’s Whirlpool gaffe be a factor?

To win, Le Pen needs to capitalize on Macron’s gaffe. She also needs low turnout and a ni-ni impact that affects Macron more than it does her.

This is an uphill battle, but possible, and more likely than most expect.

Can Macron Save The World? Save France?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The markets appear giddy over the election prospects of Emanuel Macron in France.

Equities are up along with bond yields. Gold is down.

Macron won round one of the French election Sunday and will square off against Marine Le Pen in round two on May 7. He is widely expected to win round two, becoming the next president of France.
 

Policy Advancement

Can Macron Save the World? Save France?

Let’s phrase this a different way. Can Macron advance his policies?

I would ask the same question if Marine Le Pen were expected to win. Macron will not have a mandate. Neither would Le Pen if she were to win.

Certainly, the EU would prefer working with Macron. With Le Pen at the helm, France could throw Brexit negotiations for a loop.

internally, Macron has his work cut out for him. Here are their policies as described by the Guardian.

Macron Policies

Remake the “failed” and “vacuous” French political system; relax labor laws; cut business taxes; reform unemployment system; encourage social mobility; cut public spending (but boost investment); shrink public sector; reduce the number of MPs; establish eurozone government; hire 10,000 more police and gendarmes.

He says: “I will work over the coming fortnight so that together we can gather as many people as possible around my candidacy. The strength of this coming together will be decisive for the government. The challenge this evening is not to vote against a person, but to decide to break completely with a system that has been incapable of responding to our country’s problems for 30 years.

Le Pen Policies

Policies: Priority for French nationals in jobs, housing, welfare; extra tax on foreign workers and imports; proportional representation in parliament; negotiate with EU for return of “full sovereignty” including the franc; in-out referendum on EU membership; cut immigration to 10,000 a year; restrict nationality rights; hire 15,000 police; create 40,000 more prison places.

She says: “The French people now have a very simple choice: either we continue on the path to complete deregulation, or you choose France.

Questions

1. Would the French parliament go along with relaxing labor laws? Cut business taxes?


2. Would the parliament allow a referendum on the Euro?

If the answers are no and no, then what’s changed?

The real battle over the survival of the eurozone will take place in Italy, not France.

Two Critical Factors In French Election: Sureness And Abstentions

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The most recent French election polls remain very tight. Four candidates have a genuine shot at making it to the final round.

The first round vote is on April 23. Yet, a huge percentage of voters still have not made up their minds who to vote for.

Another 32% to 37% plan on sitting the election out or purposely spoiling their ballot.

4.5 Percentage Points Separate Macron, Fillon, Mélenchon

Round One Confidence

How confident should Le Pen and Macron be regarding round one? Take a guess before reading further.

Support for Le Pen is relatively solid. So is support for Fillon. Hamon, Mélenchon, and Macron have issues.

33% of Macron’s alleged base may not even vote for him!

If Mélenchon can manage to hold his base while capturing support for Macron, we could see something virtually no one but me has even discussed: Le Pen vs Mélenchon in round two.

Which Way Are Undecideds Likely to Break?

To ascertain who voters are likely to switch to, assuming they switch, let’s investigate round two intent.

Macron is the clear winner in second round intent, but results vary widely.

Those intending to vote for Hamon are highly likely to support Macron in round two, assuming, of course, Macron does make it to round two.  However, Hamon is only polling 8.5% now as his base has largely abandoned him already.

Despite the fact that the positions of Le Pen and Mélenchon are very similar, Le Pen presumably would pick up very little support from Mélenchon while a whopping 40% would choose to sit the election out in protest.

This looks like a lukewarm hold your nose vote for Macron.

If Fillon is knocked out of round one, his support would be much more evenly split, but Macron still rates better than Le Pen.

Does Any of This Make Much Sense?

On the surface, not much.

Le Pen and Mélenchon both eject EU institutions, free trade, and NATO. Both are in favor closer ties with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Fillon is pro-Europe as is Macron and Hamon. But Le Pen, who is vehemently anti-Europe, rates to pick up 31% of Fillon’s vote if he is knocked out, assuming you believe the polls.

Neither Le Pen nor Mélenchon is likely to get their anti-Euro legislation passed in French parliament and that assessment may help both of them at the expense of Macron.

Le Pen vs Macron

Here’s another chart to ponder.

Given round two intentions stated above, this should have been a massive landslide Macron. But it isn’t.

The above chart is yet another sign of doubt about Macron.

Macron better not make any serious blunders in the final 12 days of round one campaigning.

Also consider French Candidate Mélenchon Launches “Fiscal Kombat”: Free Video Game on Sharing Wealth.

Those wishing to play the game can do so at FiscalKombat.Fr.