Watch Live: May And Juncker Make Joint Statement, But "No Deal Today"

With the Irish border issue reportedly resolved, and the Brexit process suddenly progressing unexpectedly smoothly, Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker are set to make a joint statement momentarily, however for those expecting a formal announcement of a deal, don"t hold your breath because as a BBC correspondent just announced:

• NO DEAL TODAY FROM BREXIT TALKS: BBC

The news sent the pound tumbling:

Live feed below:

And here are the highlights:

• EU"S JUNCKER: WE HAD A FRIENDLY MEETING WITH UK"S MAY


• EU"S JUNCKER SAYS IT WAS NOT POSSIBLE TO MAKE COMPLETE DEAL


• EU"S JUNCKER SAYS IT WILL REQUIRE FURTHER DISCUSSION


• EU"S JUNCKER SAYS WILL CONTINUE DISCUSSION WITH UK THIS WEEK


• EU"S JUNCKER SAYS CONFIDENT BREXIT PROGRESS POSSIBLE BY DEC. SUMMIT


• MAY SAYS HAD A CONSTRUCTIVE MEETING WITH THE EU


• MAY SAYS IT"S CLEAR EU, UK WANT TO MOVE FORWARD TOGETHER


• MAY SAYS WILL RECONVENE BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK


• MAY SAYS SHE"S POSITIVE THEY WILL CONCLUDE THIS POSITIVELY

"No-One Knows What’s Going On Now": Britain, EU Fail To Reach Brexit Deal

There was a burst of hope this morning that after many repeated false starts, Theresa May and JC Juncker would finally announce a Brexit deal on Monday. Alas it was not meant to be and after a brief conference between the two leaders, we learned that despite progress, a Brexit deal "was not possible today."

According to the BBC"s Laura Kuenssberg, "it was the DUP call that sunk today"s chances of a deal - Foster held her press conf, 20 mins later May leaves talks with Juncker to call her, goes back into the room and the deal is off."

However it was another BBC reporter, Katya Adler, that had the best summary of today"s events: "No-one knows what’s going on now, one EU diplomat told me"

No-one knows what’s going on now, one EU diplomat told me #Brexit

— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) December 4, 2017

What we do know is that despite the lack of a deal, hope remains and speaking after talks between the UK and the European Commission’s negotiators, Jean-Claude Juncker said: “Despite our best effort and a significant effort, it was not possible to reach a complete agreement today” adding that "this is not a failure, this is the start of the very next round."

Juncker added that “we now have a common understanding on most relevant issues, with just two or three open for discussion. This will require further consultation, further negotiation and further discussion,” and that "we were narrowing our positions to a huge extent today thanks to the British prime minister, thanks to the willingness of the European Commission to have a fair deal with Britain."

In her first public press statement in Brussels alongside Juncker since the start of Brexit talks nine months ago, May chimed in: “I am confident we will conclude this positively" adding that “on a couple of issues, some issues remain which will require further negotiation and consultations. We will reconvene before the end of this week."

As reported earlier, talks had come unstuck over the Northern Irish border in recent weeks. Earlier in the day after government sources in Dublin said London had agreed to keep Northern Ireland “aligned” to EU regulations to avoid a “hard border” with the Irish Republic. Word of that sent the pound higher on hopes of rapid trade talks but according to Reuters, provoked an angry response from May’s allies in Northern Ireland, demanding equal treatment with the rest of the United Kingdom.

Underlining the conundrums of Brexit, the idea of Northern Ireland remaining closely linked to the EU single market prompted speculation that, to avoid new barriers between Belfast and London, the British mainland would have to follow suit.

The leaders of Scotland and London, which voted against Brexit, demanded they be allowed the same EU relationship as Northern Ireland. Yet May has ruled out such differentiated treatment or staying in a customs union or the single market.

* * *

So where do we stand after today"s chaos? Well, Juncker said that he is “very confident” the Brexit negotiations will achieve a breakthrough this week: “I’m very confident that we’ll reach an agreement in the course of this week,” the Commission president told reporters after his meeting with May.

“We now have a common understanding on most relevant issues, with just two or three open for discussion,” Juncker concluded.

The markets have taken Juncker"s optimism in stride: after sliding to day lows following news of the no deal, cable has recovered half the loss, and was last trading around 1.347.

Alwaleed Bin Talal Reportedly Hung Upside Down And Beaten By US Mercenaries

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman must be worried that some of the royals rounded up during his “corruption crackdown” cash grab are holding out on him. Because the Saudi prince has reportedly hired a crew of American mercenaries who haven’t hesitated to employ an array of “enhanced interrogation” techniques.

As the Daily Mail reports, mercenaries purportedly employed by Academi, a successor to infamous US security contractor Blackwater, have been stringing up some of MBS’s “guests” at the Riyadh Ritz Carlton by their feet and savagely beating them during interrogations. The claims have spread rapidly on Arabic-language social media, and even Lebanon’s president Michel Aoun has accused MbS of using mercenaries. Still, the Daily Mail isn"t the most reputable news organization, so these reports should be taken with a grain of salt.

"They are beating them, torturing them, slapping them, insulting them. They want to break them down," the source told DailyMail.com.

 

"Blackwater" has been named by DailyMail.com"s source as the firm involved, and the claim of its presence in Saudi Arabia has also been made on Arabic social media, and by Lebanon"s president.

 

The firm"s successor, Academi, strongly denies even being in Saudi Arabia and says it does not engage in torture, which it is illegal for any U.S. citizen to commit anywhere in the world.

The Saudi crown prince, according to the source, has also confiscated more than $194 billion from the bank accounts and seized assets of those arrested, and could eventually end up with $800 billion in cash and assets to replenish Saudi’s rapidly diminishing reserves. Given the febrile atmosphere in the kingdom, and the tacit support for the crackdown among Saudi citizens, who have seen their jobs and generous government subsidies cut, MbS has been able to circumvent the country’s legal system.

Alwaleed bin Talal

He’s using mercenaries because, according to the Mail, Saudi soldiers might balk at torturing powerful men like Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, whom they’ve been saluting their entire lives. According to the Mail, Talal, who is (or was, until recently) one of the richest men in the world, has also been hung upside down and beaten.

"All the guards in charge are private security because MBS (Mohammed Bin Salman) doesn"t want Saudi officers there who have been saluting those detainees all their lives," said the source, who asked to remain anonymous.

 

"Outside the hotels where they are being detained you see the armored vehicles of the Saudi special forces. But inside, it"s a private security company.

 

"They"ve transferred all the guys from Abu Dhabi. Now they are in charge of everything," said the source.

 

The source said that Salman, often referred to by his initials MBS, is conducting some of the interrogations himself.

 

"When it"s something big he asks them questions," the source said.

 

"He speaks to them very nicely in the interrogation, and then he leaves the room, and the mercenaries go in. The prisoners are slapped, insulted, hung up, tortured."

 

The source says the crown prince is desperate to assert his authority through fear and wants to uncover an alleged network of foreign officials who have taken bribes from Saudi princes.

The Daily Mail’s account of the treatment of the Saudi royals arrested in the crackdown is much more harrowing than anything the mainstream media has published. The Mail published photos of what appear to be some of the detainees sleeping on thin mattresses in the ballroom of the Ritz-Carlton.

Among those arrested on allegations of corruption is Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal, the Saudi King"s nephew who is worth more than $17bn according to Forbes, and owns stakes in Twitter, Lyft and Citigroup.

 

DailyMail.com"s source claims the crown prince lulled Alwaleed into a false sense of security, inviting him to a meeting at his Al Yamamah palace, then sent officers to arrest him the night before the meeting.

 

"Suddenly at 2.45am all his guards were disarmed, the royal guards of MBS storm in," said the source.

 

"He"s dragged from his own bedroom in his pajamas, handcuffed, put in the back of an SUV, and interrogated like a criminal.

 

"They hung them upside down, just to send a message.

 

"They told them that "we"ve made your charges public, the world knows that you"ve been arrested on these charges.""

Of course, it’s unlikely MbS, or the American mercenaries, will ever be prosecuted for their actions, either in Saudi Arabia or the US. It’s rumored that MbS’s aging father, King Salman, might soon abdicate, granting his son untrammeled power to run KSA as he sees fit.

In 2008 the Boston-born son of former Liberian President Charles Taylor was found guilty by a US court of horrific torture. The jury in Miami found Charles "Chuckie" Taylor Jr. guilty on all eight counts brought against him, including allegations he and his cohorts tortured victims in Liberia by applying electric shocks to their genitals, burning them with hot irons and melting plastic and rubbing salt in their open wounds.
 

Monaco Has To Build Into Mediterranean Sea To House Super-Rich

The principality of Monaco is about the same size as New York’s Central Park and slightly bigger than London’s Regent’s Park. Besides hosting the Monaco Grand Prix it is home to thousands of multi-millionaires, including tennis player Novak Djokovic and F1 driver Lewis Hamilton, who enjoy the fact that Monaco does not levy income tax or capital gains tax. As the Financial Times notes.

Monaco’s enduring popularity for tax exiles also rests on its year-round climate, unrivalled security and its wealthy, multicultural society...

 

It has an opera house, a philharmonic orchestra and concerts throughout the year. It has good transport links: Nice International Airport is just six minutes away by helicopter.

The problem for Monaco is that more and more millionaires want to live there – even though property is the second most expensive in the world after Hong Kong - and there simply isn’t the space. Furthermore, the average Monegasque home only changes hands once every 37 years.

In another bizarre sign of the financial bubble, is will build 120 new luxury homes by reclaiming 6 hectares (15 acres) from the Mediterranean Sea. According to The Guardian.

Construction has begun on a $2bn (£1.5bn) scheme to reclaim land from the sea around Monaco so that more luxury apartments can be built for the thousands of extra millionaires expected to move to the principality in the next 10 years. Nearly 35 in every 100 Monaco residents are millionaires and more of the global super-rich want to join them. Around 2,700 more are expected to call Monaco home by 2026, according to research by estate agent Knight Frank, taking the total to 16,100 out of a total population of under 38,000.

But the sovereign city-state – which is only slightly bigger than Regent’s Park in London – has run out of space for those seeking the “fiscal advantages” that the tax haven offers. To attract the world’s wealthy, Prince Albert II, the reigning monarch, has approved the “offshore urban extension project”, which will add six hectares (15 acres) to Monaco’s 202 hectares. This will allow the creation of 120 luxury homes selling for more than $100,000 per sq metre – more expensive than One Hyde Park in London and 15 Central Park West in Manhattan.

The new Portier Cove ecological neighbourhood, near Casino de Monte-Carlo, is regarded as vital for the continued growth of the principality; according to state statistics body L’Institut monégasque de la statistique et des études économiques (IMSEE), not one new-build apartment went up for sale last year.

Monaco has been down this route before, when a larger reclamation was shelved due to the 2008 financial crisis and environmental concerns. While another financial crisis could still affect the current project, the environmental opposition has been placated this time.

Previous plans for a larger reclamation scheme were dropped after the financial crisis and environmental concerns. But Bouygues, the construction company behind the project, has promised there will be no detrimental effect on the environment. Important species on the seabed have been moved to a new reserve and the company said 3D-printed artificial coral reefs on the 18 trapezoid reinforced concrete caissons used to create the boundary of the new land would provide an artificial reef for wildlife.

True to form, a “global super prime” estate agent in the principality is expecting prices to continue rising into a new “stratosphere”. The Guardian continues.

Edward de Mallet Morgan, global super prime residential partner at Knight Frank, said huge demand and a severe lack of supply had sent Monaco prices “through the roof”. A cool $1m in Monaco will buy 17 sq m of prime residential property, less than a third of the space it would buy in Paris and just over half of the 30m of space it would command in prime central London.

Only 70 of the Portier Cove apartments – some of which are designed by The Shard architect Renzo Piano – will go on sale (the others being retained by the developer). Mallet Morgan said that by the time the development was finished “who knows what stratosphere Monaco’s prices will have reached”. “Such is the demand for new waterfront homes that price will be little deterrent to buyers – and their tax advisers - who are thinking ahead with wealth preservation in mind for future generations of their families,” he said.

Having crunched the numbers, Knight Frank estimates that 1,220 of Monaco’s 38,000 residents were worth more than $30 million in 2016, a 10% increase on the previous year. Using this definition of ultra-high net worth (UHNW), Monaco has 320 UHNW individuals per 10,000 citizens compared with 2 in every 10,000 citizens in the US. Speaking to the Guardian, Mallet Morgan discussed the tax issue…and how much “ready” cash you’d need to apply for residency.

“In their private lives and business lives, they naturally want to structure themselves so that they are only paying as much tax as they need to. You can’t avoid that Monaco is a tax haven, you can dress it up as a low-tax environment, but it is a tax haven with a lot of tax breaks for families, businesses and importantly inheritance tax.

“Inheritance tax is important for a lot of families who have developed wealth over generations, because here there is no tax at all on passing wealth over to children.” The inheritance tax break applies to assets held in Monaco or overseas.

There is no personal income tax in Monaco. In the UK, income above £150,000 is taxed at 45%. Companies incorporated in Monaco are exempt from taxes if most of their business is based in the principality. In order to apply for Monaco residency, applicants must open a Monaco bank account and deposit at least €500,000 (£440,000).

Security is another attraction, as is the "ease of commute".

Nick Edmiston, the founder and chairman of superyacht builder Edmiston & Co, said a high sense of personal security was a big draw for the super-rich. “You can walk around wearing expensive jewellery and feel safe,” said Edmiston, who has lived in Monaco since 1989. “Many wealthy people are used to always being surrounded by bodyguards but that’s not necessary in Monaco.”

However, Mallet Morgan warned rich prospective buyers that they were not likely to get much space for their money. “You can pay the best part of €500,000-€750,000 for a parking space,” he said, and a €6m two-bed apartment is going to be “quite pokey compared to London”. But a lot of people commute to London or Paris. “It is easy to go anywhere from Nice airport, which is a short helicopter ride away,” he said. “You can easily go and have a meeting with your trustees in Geneva, and then go to the Opera in Vienna that evening.”

We wonder what the reaction of the "established" Monaco residents will be to the "nouveau refugees" if, this time, the project can be finished before the next crisis.

 

Xi Jinping Pledges To "Strengthen Relationship" Between Saudi Arabia And China

In what can only be described as a masterful play to entice Saudi Arabia to list shares of Aramco in Hong Kong (assuming the kingdom follows through with the listing, which is reportedly in jeopardy) Chinese state media reported Friday that Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to strengthen the relationship between China and Saudi Arabia as the latter tries to reform its economy.

According to the South China Morning Post, Xi vowed to strengthen cooperation between the two states at a time when the Middle Eastern kingdom is facing a political shake-up at home, and heightened tensions with Lebanon and Iran. Xi’s vow of friendship came with the crucial qualifier that the relationship between the two countries wouldn’t be affected by shifting international circumstances.

No matter how the international and regional situation changed, China’s determination to deepen strategic cooperation with Saudi Arabia would not change, President Xi Jinping told Saudi King Salman in a telephone conversation, according to a report by China’s state broadcaster CCTV.

 

“China supports Saudi in its efforts to safeguard its sovereignty and achieve greater development,” Xi was quoted as saying.

Of course, that’s an implicit threat that China might come to KSA’s aide if the simmering hostilities between the kingdom and Iran explode out into a military conflict between the two regional rivals. However, the SCMP also stresses that China has a strong relationship with Iran as well.

Hong Kong is reportedly still in consideration to host the Aramco IPO.

And while China will presumably play the dual role of investor and adviser as the Kingdom seeks to diversify its economy into other industries besides energy, including technology and manufacturing, KSA has in returned promised to assist Xi’s “one belt, one road” economic reform program.

King Salman told Xi that Saudi Arabia was willing to become China’s “important partner” in the Gulf. The kingdom also intended to play a role in China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” and cooperate with Beijing in the energy and financial sectors, he said

Though Chinese media reports didn’t delve into too much detail about the recent purge orchestrated by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the call between the two leaders obviously follows an event two weeks for KSA, where its leaders reportedly pressured Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri to resign. Hariri had to go, allegedly, because he was deemed too soft on Hezbollah, the shiite militant group that’s affiliated with Iran and is also an important powerbroker in Lebanon.

Two weeks ago, dozens of Saudi princes and officials were detained on corruption charges, a move that is believed to have helped Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to consolidate his power. And yesterday the Financial Times exposed the “corruption crackdown” for what is truly is: A naked cash grab meant to refill KSA’s foreign currency reserves while allowing it the financial flexibility to help ensure the Aramco IPO is executed at the best possible price.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun this week accused Saudi authorities of “detaining” Hariri, but Riyadh said he was free to leave the kingdom “when he pleases”. Hariri was reportedly supposed to arrive in France on Friday.

Saudi Arabia was also seen as a protagonist in leading 11 other nations to sever diplomatic ties with Qatar earlier this year, a move meant to punish KSA’s tiny neighbor for having too close a relationship with Iran.

Despite Xi’s promise, China also maintains warm relations with Iran, meaning the likelihood that China would become involved in a military struggle against either Iran or Saudi is probably low.

According to the SCMP, China has bolstered its presence in the region by forging closer ties with both countries. Of course, Saudi has plenty to gain from closer relations with China, including expanding its foothold in the world’s largest import market for crude.

During King Salman’s first official trip to China in March, the two countries signed deals, including some in the oil sector, worth a combined US$65 billion, the SCMP noted.

However, if the feud between Saudi Arabia and Iran intensifies - and that looks likely - the threat of a geopolitical conflict will become impossible to ignore.

What then?

"Abdication Is Unthinkable": Saudis Deny King Salman Will Relinquish Throne To His Son

Three days ago, we reported that based on various unconfirmed media reports, Saudi King Salman - reeling from a just concluded purge that arrested some of the country"s wealthiest and most powerful royals and officials - was set to elevate his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to the throne in as little as 48 hours. Speculation peaked when Al-Arabiya tweeted, then quickly deleted, details of the allegedly imminent ascension ceremony.

To be sure, though a transfer of power to the crown prince has long been predicted and expected, especially after a lesser known round of mass arrests targeting well-known Saudi clerics took place in September, last week"s events pointed to a final "house cleaning" purge in preparation for bin Salman"s likely imminent ascent. After the September arrests against clerics who were largely seen as regime insiders, yet who were mildly critical of the new aggressive stance against Qatar, the WSJ quoted an adviser to the Saudi government as saying, “Mohammed bin Salman is definitely preparing to become king. He wants to tackle the internal debate about him becoming the king and focus on consolidating his power, rather than doing that while being distracted by dissidents.”

During the September crackdown, which is currently receiving little commentary in relation to last weekend"s turmoil, over 30 prominent political figures were detained, most of them clerics with large social media followings and broad influence in the Arab world. The WSJ further noted at that time that...

The government has denied an abdication is planned, but several people close to the royal family say preparations have already started. The transfer of power, which several people close to the royal family had expected to occur this month, is likely to take place late this year or early next year, these people say.

At that time, one of the few commentators to rightly point out that this was not fundamentally about rounding up "outsiders" and "oppositionists" was Middle East history professor and expert on Saudi affairs, As"ad AbuKhalil. He predicted the crackdown was part of a broader campaign aimed at regime insiders and prominent voices who threatened push-back against the crown prince"s vision for Saudi foreign policy:

Unlike what some in the media are writing on social media, this crackdown is not directed against dissidents.  Many of those arrested are loyal propagandists for the Saudi regime.  They are being punished not for what they say but for what they are not saying: they are being punished for not being vocal against Qatar and against the Muslim Brotherhood.

Indeed, last week"s internal Saudi earthquake which witnessed the detention of about a dozen other princes, as well as the freezing in billions in assets, further confirms AbuKhalil"s analysis. Meanwhile, the Crown Prince"s path to the throne is now virtually unimpeded: as a reminder, the 32-year-old Prince Mohammed was named heir to the throne in June after replacing his cousin. Last week, Prince Miteb bin Abdullah was also dismissed from his post as head of the National Guard as part of what authorities described as a sweeping anti-corruption drive, reinforcing speculation that the crown prince was on the cusp of becoming king.

In fact, transfer of power from the King to the Royal Prince would be merely a formality at this point: Prince Mohammed already controls almost all levers of government; he oversees defense, oil and economic policies, and - in applying the script of Syriana to real life - has vowed to wean the Saudi economy off its reliance on oil and return to a more moderate form of Islam.

But perhaps the most substantial confirmation that royal succession is indeed in the cards, is the official denial that took place overnight via Bloomberg, which reported that "King Salman isn’t planning to abdicate in favor of his son, a senior Saudi official said, dismissing mounting speculation that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will soon ascend to the throne." Needless to say, if mounting speculation was baseless, Saudi Arabia would simply ignore it.

“There is no possibility whatsoever that the king will abdicate,’’ the official said in response to written questions. Saudi kings usually stay in power even when bad health prevents them from carrying out their job, the official said on condition of anonymity. He noted the example of King Fahd, who stayed on as monarch until his death in 2005 despite being gravely ill in the last few years of his reign.

The denial continued: "Abdication is unthinkable especially since King Salman, 81, enjoys “perfect’’ physical and mental powers, the official said. Those who suggest otherwise “do not understand royal customs and traditions in Saudi Arabia,” the official said." Or, perhaps, they do very well, which is why Riyadh felt the need to issue an official denial.

The irony is that by directly addressing the mounting speculation, the Saudi royal family merely adds credence to it. In a catch 22 described by Graham Griffiths, an analyst at consultancy Control Risks in Dubai, the government will have difficulty credibly denying that speculation “because no one expects them to acknowledge it as a possibility before it happens. As a result, rumor and speculation will continue to abound.”

Additionally, abdication is not unthinkable: as Bloomberg notes, there is one precedent of a Saudi monarch stepping down while still alive.

King Saud bin Abdulaziz abdicated in favor of his brother and heir, Prince Faisal, in the mid-1960s after pressure from ruling family members. The prince had already claimed broad powers to counter a financial crisis that engulfed the kingdom at the time.

In September Eurasia Group said the royal palace was finalizing plans to transfer power allowing “the father to oversee the transition and prevent dissent from other powerful members of the ruling family.”

In any case, while a royal accession may not be imminent, all signs now point to an orderly succession in a few years’ time, discontent with Prince Mohammed’s domestic reform program and foreign policy initiatives “could increase the family’s willingness to challenge him,’’ Griffiths said. Last week"s mega purge, which intends to confiscate up to $800 billion in assets from Saudi oligarchs, may be just the catalyst for Prince Mohammed to accelerate his accession plans as the animosity among the kingdom"s wealthiest and most powerful is rising fast.

Geopolitical Tsunami: Pax Americana, Petrodollar, & The Coming Crisis In The Gulf

It’s easy to get lost in all things Middle East, especially concerning the chaotic events that unfolded over the weekend in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

Three days after the most stunning purge in recent Saudi history - which was really a countercoup, that led to the arrest of dozen of Saudi Arabian royals, ministers and businessmen to further the control of the Kingdom - Saudi Arabia called Yemen’s missile launch on Riyadh an ‘act of war’ by Iran, and also played victim by saying Lebanon has declared war against the Kingdom.

How to make sense of this all? 

An author on twitter by the handle Black Pigeon Speaks beautifully outlines today’s events in an easy to understand video titled: PAX AMERICANA, PetroDollar & the Coming CRISIS in the GULF… 

The author of the video focuses on the Middle East and says a perfect storm is gathering upon the horizon, as the whole world is changing and the only way to change it for the better is to understand the world around you.

The video opens up with a brief understanding of the stunning purge in Saudi Arabia and how it has cleared any potential obstacles for King Salman’s son ascension to the throne.

This was done by a widespread arrest of royals, ministers and businessmen who have large sums of money and control key parts of the economy and parts of the military. Such an unorthodox move is bound to force internal conflict with-in the country that could very well spillover.

In the next section, the author says “this comes all at a time of seeming change for the Kingdom”. Allowing women to drive was merely a window dressing event and the real issue is the country’s economic transition away from oil. The problem resides around the world’s most generous social welfare systems of which most citizens do not work. The money transfer from state to citizens is similar to the United States social programs, but the objective in Saudi Arabia has been to sedate the populace from expressing any collective opposition to the kingdom. It is easy to understand how fragile the house of Saud really is….

Moreover as what was highlighted by the recent arm sales via the Trump administration. The country is armed with the most technological weapons in the world, as it has completely abandoned the line of succession through a stunning weekend purge.

The idea that Saudi Arabia is trying to cement a new era for the kingdom at the expense of those who have been purged could pose serious problems. And how the author puts it, “you have a recipe for civil war– for two reasons:

• Those who have been purged will claim they’ve a legitimate claim to power. These individuals are very wealthy and have the means to buy mercenary armies to fight for their claim


• Breakdown of the social welfare program

The outlook for Saudi Arabia is bleak and in our view, the conditions are perfect for a civil war. The probability of an expansionist war also increases as the kingdom has Iran and Lebanon in its crosshairs.

Saudi King May Relinquish Throne To Crown Prince Within 48 Hours: Reports

Multiple reports and rumors currently abound that the ailing king Salman could elevate his son Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the throne at any moment (or rather, it looks like bin Salman is set to seize the throne) after a shocking week of events following the so-called "corruption purge" that left the kingdom in a rare moment of internal political chaos and which further sent geopolitical shock waves through the region, most especially in Lebanon. 

Though a transfer of power to the crown prince has long been predicted and expected, especially after a lesser known round of mass arrests targeting well-known Saudi clerics took place in September, this week"s events point to a final "house cleaning" purge in preparation for bin Salman"s likely imminent ascent.

Saudi king to relinquish throne to son within next two nights: Report#SaudiArabia https://t.co/LG3P59APgs pic.twitter.com/ZB5w0edDTZ

— Press TV (@PressTV) November 9, 2017

#SAUDI KING SALMAN TO RELINQUISH THRONE TO CROWN PRINCE BIN SALMAN "BY THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS": RAI AL-YOUM. #OOTT

*al-Arabiya reported the same in a tweet, but retracted the tweet

— Lee Saks (@Lee_Saks) November 9, 2017

Unconfirmed sources: SAUDI KING SALMAN TO RELINQUISH THRONE TO CROWN PRINCE BIN SALMAN "BY THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS

— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) November 9, 2017

After the September arrests against clerics who were largely seen as regime insiders, yet who were mildly critical of the new aggressive stance against Qatar, the WSJ quoted an adviser to the Saudi government as saying, “Mohammed bin Salman is definitely preparing to become king. He wants to tackle the internal debate about him becoming the king and focus on consolidating his power, rather than doing that while being distracted by dissidents.”

During the September crackdown, which is currently receiving little commentary in relation to last weekend"s turmoil, over 30 prominent political figures were detained, most of them clerics with large social media followings and broad influence in the Arab world. The WSJ further noted at that time that...

The government has denied an abdication is planned, but several people close to the royal family say preparations have already started. The transfer of power, which several people close to the royal family had expected to occur this month, is likely to take place late this year or early next year, these people say.

At that time, one of the few commentators to rightly point out that this was not fundamentally about rounding up "outsiders" and "oppositionists" was Middle East history professor and expert on Saudi affairs, As"ad AbuKhalil. He predicted the crackdown was part of a broader campaign aimed at regime insiders and prominent voices who threatened push-back against the crown prince"s vision for Saudi foreign policy:

Unlike what some in the media are writing on social media, this crackdown is not directed against dissidents.  Many of those arrested are loyal propagandists for the Saudi regime.  They are being punished not for what they say but for what they are not saying: they are being punished for not being vocal against Qatar and against the Muslim Brotherhood.

Indeed, this week"s internal Saudi earthquake which has witness two deaths of prominent princes and the detention of about a dozen other princes, as well as the freezing in billions in assets, further confirms AbuKhalil"s analysis. 

And AbuKhalil, who authored a book which examined internal Saudi regime fault lines called The Battle for Saudi Arabia: Royalty, Fundamentalism, and Global Power, has just made another prediction based on his extensive contacts within Saudi Arabia. Last night he said bin Salman will declare himself king in less than 2 days:

I am hearing that he will be declaring himself king in the next 36 hours and that recent arrests paved the way.

The photo released by the Saudi Royal Palace shows King Salman (R) being welcomed by his son Crown Mohammed bin Salman (L) at Jeddah airport upon his return from holiday in Morocco on August 23, 2017.

Meanwhile, it appears that Saudi state-owned Al-Arabiya news may have tipped its hand early through a mistaken post to its official Twitter account. According to Iran"s PressTV:

A Saudi-owned television news channel has retracted a message on Twitter that had said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would be appointed as the king during a planned ceremony.

 

Al-Arabiya state television, on its Twitter account, said on Wednesday that it would soon release or broadcast further details about the scheduled ceremony.

 

However, the channel deleted the tweet hours later.

 

The regime in Riyadh is apparently seeking to examine public reaction regarding a surprise shift in power. 

 

In early September, the Arabic-language al-Manar daily reported that bin Salman had formed a team of aides to prepare the kingdom for celebrating his succession to power as the new king.

And here is the now deleted Al-Arabiya tweet which PressTV says prematurely revealed details of the ascension ceremony:

In the next 48 hours we could have a new king in Saudi Arabia.

The story is developing

Trump Defends Saudi Actions: "Some Have Been Milking Their Country For Years"

President Trump is up bright and early in Asia this morning and just unleashed two rather pointed tweets in the direction of Saudi Arabia.

Having commented during the day on the success of America"s missile-defense system in the attack on Riyadh that was intercepted, President Trump had been quiet on the "civil war" going on among the elites... until now:

I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing....

....Some of those they are harshly treating have been “milking” their country for years!

 

I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing....

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 6, 2017

....Some of those they are harshly treating have been “milking” their country for years!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 6, 2017

The former tweet seems to confirm previous comments that:

MBS is emboldened by strong support from President Trump and his inner circle, who see him as a kindred disrupter of the status quo - at once a wealthy tycoon and a populist insurgent. It was probably no accident that last month, Jared Kushner, Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law, made a personal visit to Riyadh.

 

The two princes are said to have stayed up until nearly 4 a.m. several nights, swapping stories and planning strategy.

The latter tweet seems like a direct reference to at least one member of Saudi royalty who was arrested and has had his assets frozen...

In 2015, Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin-Talal tweeted at Trump...

.@realDonaldTrump
You are a disgrace not only to the GOP but to all America.

Withdraw from the U.S presidential race as you will never win.

— ?????? ?? ???? (@Alwaleed_Talal) December 11, 2015

 

To which Trump responded...

Dopey Prince @Alwaleed_Talal wants to control our U.S. politicians with daddy’s money. Can’t do it when I get elected. #Trump2016

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 12, 2015

Perhaps pre-empting today"s "miling the country" comments.

In Shocking Purge, Saudi King Arrests Billionaire Prince Bin Talal, Dozens Of Others In Cabinet Crackdown

In a shocking development, Saudi press Al Mayadeen reported late on Saturday that prominent billionaire, member of the royal Saudi family, and one of the biggest shareholders of Citi, News Corp. and Twitter - not to mention frequent CNBC guest - Al-Waleed bin Talal, along with ten senior princes, and some 38 ministers, has been arrested for corruption and money laundering charges on orders from the new anti-corruption committee headed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, while Royal princes’ private planes have been grounded.

Among those fired and/or arrested are the head of National Royal Guards, Miteb Bin Abdullah, the Minister of Economy and Planning, Adel Fakeih, and Admiral Abdullah bin Sultan bin Mohammed Al-Sultan, the Commander of the Saudi Naval Forces.

#BREAKING Several Princes & Saudi businessmen are arrested for #MoneyLaundering and #corruption charges in #KSA ????????https://t.co/EPh5tyilp9 pic.twitter.com/qZ4WSkKXyT

— ??? ?????? ???????? (@HSajwanization) November 4, 2017

As the local press further adds, the supreme committee chaired by Crown Prince and billionaire stops "on charges of money laundering."

al-Waleed bin Talal is perhaps best known not only for his periodic CNBC appearances, but for his recurring on and off spats with president Trump:

According to al Arabiya, among those sacked and/or arrested are Moteib Bin Abdullah, Minister of the National Guard, and Prince Khalid bin Ayyaf has been appointed as his replacement. A second Royal Order was issued to relieve Minister of Economy and Planning, Adel al-Faqieh, from his duties, and the appointment of Mohammed Al Tuwaijri as Minister of Economy and Planning.

According to a Royal Decree issued by King Salman on Saturday the anti-corruption committee is chaired by the Crown Prince with the membership of: Chairman of the Monitoring and Investigation Commission, Chairman of the National Anti-Corruption Authority, Chief of the General Audit Bureau, Attorney General and Head of State Security.

As Saudi analysts were quick to point out, the purge by the Saudi King means that King Abdallah’s last remnants (Riyad firmer gov. & head of Nat. Guard); media moguls; SAGIA & financial policy officials have been purged.

As Bloomberg notes, changing the head of the National Guard, an institution that’s been controlled by the clan of the late King Abdullah, “is not like changing the minister of oil,” said Kamran Bokhari, a senior analyst with Geopolitical Futures and a senior fellow with the Center for Global Policy. “I wouldn’t be surprised if this leads to greater fissures within the royal family.”

Arabiya adds that King Salman also issued sacking and replacement orders for Admiral Abdullah bin Sultan bin Mohammed Al-Sultan, the Commander of the Naval Forces, is to be terminated and be retired; his replacement is Vice Admiral Fahd bin Abdullah Al-Ghifaili, to be promoted to the rank of admiral and be appointed as Commander of the Naval Forces.

Additionally, Minister of Economy and Planning Adel al-Faqieh was replaced by Mohammed al-Tuwaijri, SPA said, quoting a royal decree. Commander of the Saudi Navy, Abdullah al-Sultan, was replaced with Fahad al-Ghafli. The king also replaced Minister of Economy and Planning Adel Fakeih withMohammad Al Tuwaijri, his deputy.

Al Tuwaijri, formerly vice minister for economy and planning, had already played a key role in shaping Saudi economic and fiscal policy over the past year. Before joining the government in May 2016 he was Middle East chief executive for HSBC. He’s served as a frequent spokesman for the government’s economic reform plan on TV and with Western journalists.

King Salman also issued an decree forming an anti-corruption committee headed by the crown prince. Its powers include the ability to trace funds and assets, and prevent their transfer or liquidation on behalf of individuals or entities, along with the right to take any precautionary actions until cases are referred to relevant investigatory or judiciary authorities, according to a government statement.

The committee’s formation was deemed necessary “due to the propensity of some people for abuse, putting their personal interest above public interest, and stealing public funds,” the Royal Order said.

Crown Prince: Every person, who has engaged in #corruption, regardless of their status, will be held accountable, provided there"s evidence. pic.twitter.com/sTxKfqvjo2

— CIC Saudi Arabia (@CICSaudi) November 4, 2017

Some more cynical observers noted how MBS is quickly learning from XIi Jinping "how to get rid of enemies under justification of "corruption commission" & place "friendlies" in high places."

Purge under the guise of combating corruption. Just like the earlier wave of arrests was a purge under the guise of combating extremism.

— ?yad el-Baghdadi (@iyad_elbaghdadi) November 4, 2017

Others arrested include Walid bin Talal; Khaled Tuweijri; AlWalid Ibrahim; Turki Bin Naser; and others.

V. BIG Names of Arrests in #Saudi
•Meteib Bin Abdullah
•Walid bin Talal
•Khaled Tuweijri
•AlWalid Ibrahim
•Turki Bin Naser
•Adel Fakih https://t.co/I9yYZN21XS

— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) November 4, 2017

Putting the arrests in context, the heads of the main three Saudi owned TV networks were arrested, Alwalid Bin Talal (Rotana), Walid Al Brahim (MBC), Saleh Kamel (ART)

The heads of the main three Saudi owned TV networks were arrested, Alwalid Bin Talal (Rotana), Walid Al Brahim (MBC), Saleh Kamel (ART)

— Ali Hashem ??? ???? (@alihashem_tv) November 4, 2017

As Bloomberg adds, Saudi King Salman appointed a former HSBC banker to head the country’s economy ministry and removed one of the royal family’s most prominent princes from as head of the National Guard. Separately, a number of Saudi princes and former ministers were arrested by authorities hours after the announcement of a new anti-corruption committee, with sweeping powers and headed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya news service reported.

Prince Miteb, son of the late King Abdullah, was replaced as minister of the National Guard by Prince Khaled Ayyaf, according to a royal decree carried by state-run media late Saturday. Before his ouster, Prince Miteb was one of the few remaining senior princes to have survived a series of cabinet reshuffles that promoted allies of the crown prince, who is the king’s son and heir to the throne.

 

King Salman has sidelined other senior members of the royal family to prevent any opposition to the crown prince. Prince Mohammed, 32, replaced his elder cousin, Muhammed bin Nayef, as crown prince in June, a maneuver that removed any doubt of how succession plans will unfold following the reign of King Salman, now 81.

While details remain scarce about this "Saturday of the long Saudi knives" - which some have suggested may be a countercoup attempt -  DPA confirms the Al Arabiya report that three senior state officials were sacked.

Salman relieved Prince Moteib bin Abdullah of his post as minister of the National Guard, replacing him with Khaled bin Ayaf, the official Saudi news agency SPA reported. Additionally, Minister of Economy and Planning Adel al-Faqieh was replaced by Mohammed al-Tuwaijri, SPA said, quoting a royal decree. Commander of the Saudi Navy, Abdullah al-Sultan, was replaced with Fahad al-Ghafli.

No official explanation was given for the sackings.

 

In recent months, the Saudi monarch has carried out a string of reshuffles appointing young people in senior state posts. In June, Salman ousted his nephew as the crown prince and appointed his son Mohammed to become the first in line to succeed him. The monarch on Saturday ordered the creation of an anti-corruption committee led by the crown prince amid a rumoured crackdown on suspected tainted officials and royals. Mohammed, 31, is seen as the driving force behind opening up the ultra-conservative country to the outside world and weaning its economy off oil.

Furthermore, there is speculation that all private flights and VIP departures out of Saudi Arabia have been suspended temporarily, similar to what happened following the last "gentle coup" in June when Prince Mohammed (MBS), 32, replaced his elder cousin, Muhammed bin Nayef, as crown prince in June, a maneuver that removed any doubt of how succession plans will unfold following the reign of King Salman, now 81.

#BREAKING : unconfirmed news:
all private flights and VIP departures in #KSA are suspended temporarily https://t.co/RHvqms0LrF

— ??? ?????? ???????? (@HSajwanization) November 4, 2017

According to the AngryArab blog, the removal of Prince Miteb bin Abdullah as head of the National Guard, means that "this is the first time that the National Guard is not in the hand of Abdullah or his son."

That put all apparatus of the military-intelligence network in the hands of Muhammad bin Salman.  News that Al-Walid bin Talal has been arrested and accused of money laundering.  This could be a service to Trump, who hates Al-Walid: the two fought it out on twitter during the campaign although Al-Walid tried to reconcile with Trump after his election but to no avail. 

Bin Talal"s arrest and the government reshuffle caps off a bizarre day for Saudi newsflow, which started with the resignation of Palestinian prime minister Saad al-Hariri, who announced he was quitting due to fears of an assassination plot, allegedly organized by Iran, followed shortly after by the Saudi defense forces intercepting a ballistic missile as it was about to strike the capital Riyadh.

To summarise today"s even more bizarre Saudi news day:

• Trump urges Aramco IPO


• Lebanon PM resigns


• Saudis intercept missile


• Major cabinet reshuffle; 3 Saudi princes - who run the anti-graft committee - arrested for money-laundering


• A total of 11 princes, >30 ministers arrested on corruption

This is a developing story.

In Shocking, Viral Interview, Qatar Confesses Secrets Behind Syrian War

A television interview of a top Qatari official confessing the truth behind the origins of the war in Syria is going viral across Arabic social media during the same week a leaked top secret NSA document was published which confirms that the armed opposition in Syria was under the direct command of foreign governments from the early years of the conflict.

And according to a well-known Syria analyst and economic adviser with close contacts in the Syrian government, the explosive interview constitutes a high level "public admission to collusion and coordination between four countries to destabilize an independent state, [including] possible support for Nusra/al-Qaeda." Importantly, "this admission will help build case for what Damascus sees as an attack on its security & sovereignty. It will form basis for compensation claims."

A 2013 London press conference: Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabr Al Thani with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. A 2014 Hillary Clinton email confirmed Qatar as a state-sponsor of ISIS during that same time period. 

As the war in Syria continues slowly winding down, it seems new source material comes out on an almost a weekly basis in the form of testimonials of top officials involved in destabilizing Syria, and even occasional leaked emails and documents which further detail covert regime change operations against the Assad government. Though much of this content serves to confirm what has already long been known by those who have never accepted the simplistic propaganda which has dominated mainstream media, details continue to fall in place, providing future historians with a clearer picture of the true nature of the war.

This process of clarity has been aided - as predicted - by the continued infighting among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) former allies Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with each side accusing the other of funding Islamic State and al-Qaeda terrorists (ironically, both true). Increasingly, the world watches as more dirty laundry is aired and the GCC implodes after years of nearly all the gulf monarchies funding jihadist movements in places like Syria, Iraq, and Libya.

Since 2013 The Intercept (+WaPo?) hid NSA docs showing Saudi ordering "rebel" attacks on Damascus. Now released. https://t.co/0PZrBKpJCw

— Julian Assange ???? (@JulianAssange) October 24, 2017

The top Qatari official is no less than former Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber al-Thani, who oversaw Syria operations on behalf of Qatar until 2013 (also as foreign minister), and is seen below with then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in this Jan. 2010 photo (as a reminder, Qatar"s 2022 World Cup Committee donated $500,000 to the Clinton Foundation in 2014).

In an interview with Qatari TV Wednesday, bin Jaber al-Thani revealed that his country, alongside Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United States, began shipping weapons to jihadists from the very moment events "first started" (in 2011).

Al-Thani even likened the covert operation to "hunting prey" - the prey being President Assad and his supporters - "prey" which he admits got away (as Assad is still in power; he used a Gulf Arabic dialect word, "al-sayda", which implies hunting animals or prey for sport). Though Thani denied credible allegations of support for ISIS, the former prime minister"s words implied direct Gulf and US support for al-Qaeda in Syria (al-Nusra Front) from the earliest years of the war, and even said Qatar has "full documents" and records proving that the war was planned to effect regime change.

"We argued over the prey and that prey run away".Ladies and Gentleman: To these people #Syria #Assad was nothing but a f....ing hunting game https://t.co/w4oKO5TTK6

— EHSANI2 (@EHSANI22) October 27, 2017

According to Zero Hedge"s translation, al-Thani said while acknowledging Gulf nations were arming jihadists in Syria with the approval and support of US and Turkey: "I don"t want to go into details but we have full documents about us taking charge [in Syria]." He claimed that both Saudi Arabia"s King Abdullah (who reigned until his death in 2015) and the United States placed Qatar in a lead role concerning covert operations to execute the proxy war.

The former prime minister"s comments, while very revealing, were intended as a defense and excuse of Qatar"s support for terrorism, and as a critique of the US and Saudi Arabia for essentially leaving Qatar "holding the bag" in terms of the war against Assad. Al-Thani explained that Qatar continued its financing of armed insurgents in Syria while other countries eventually wound down large-scale support, which is why he lashed out at the US and the Saudis, who initially "were with us in the same trench."

In a previous US television interview which was vastly underreported, al-Thani told Charlie Rose when asked about allegations of Qatar"s support for terrorism that, "in Syria, everybody did mistakes, including your country." And said that when the war began in Syria, "all of use worked through two operation rooms: one in Jordan and one in Turkey."

Below is the key section of Wednesday"s interview, translated and subtitled by @Walid970721. Zero Hedge has reviewed and confirmed the translation, however, as the original rush translator has acknowledged, al-Thani doesn"t say "lady" but "prey" ["al-sayda"]- as in both Assad and Syrians were being hunted by the outside countries.

#Qatar"s ex PM says that Qatari support for jihadists including Nusra in #Syria was in coordination w/ KSA, Turkey & the US via @BBassem7 pic.twitter.com/tu8IMRI7IP

— Walid (@walid970721) October 27, 2017

The partial English transcript is as follows:

"When the events first started in Syria I went to Saudi Arabia and met with King Abdullah. I did that on the instructions of his highness the prince, my father. He [Abdullah] said we are behind you. You go ahead with this plan and we will coordinate but you should be in charge. I won’t get into details but we have full documents and anything that was sent [to Syria] would go to Turkey and was in coordination with the US forces and everything was distributed via the Turks and the US forces. And us and everyone else was involved, the military people. There may have been mistakes and support was given to the wrong faction... Maybe there was a relationship with Nusra, its possible but I myself don’t know about this… we were fighting over the prey ["al-sayda"] and now the prey is gone and we are still fighting... and now Bashar is still there. You [US and Saudi Arabia] were with us in the same trench... I have no objection to one changing if he finds that he was wrong, but at least inform your partner… for example leave Bashar [al-Assad] or do this or that, but the situation that has been created now will never allow any progress in the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council], or any progress on anything if we continue to openly fight."

As is now well-known, the CIA was directly involved in leading regime change efforts in Syria with allied gulf partners, as leaked and declassified US intelligence memos confirm. The US government understood in real time that Gulf and West-supplied advanced weaponry was going to al-Qaeda and ISIS, despite official claims of arming so-called "moderate" rebels. For example, a leaked 2014 intelligence memo sent to Hillary Clinton acknowledged Qatari and Saudi support for ISIS.

The email stated in direct and unambiguous language that: 

"the governments of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which are providing clandestine financial and logistic support to ISIL and other radical Sunni groups in the region."

Furthermore, one day before Prime Minister Thani"s interview, The Intercept released a new top-secret NSA document unearthed from leaked intelligence files provided by Edward Snowden which show in stunning clarity that the armed opposition in Syria was under the direct command of foreign governments from the early years of the war which has now claimed half a million lives.

The newly released NSA document confirms that a 2013 insurgent attack with advanced surface-to-surface rockets upon civilian areas of Damascus, including Damascus International Airport, was directly supplied and commanded by Saudi Arabia with full prior awareness of US intelligence. As the former Qatari prime minister now also confirms, both the Saudis and US government staffed "operations rooms" overseeing such heinous attacks during the time period of the 2013 Damascus airport attack. 

No doubt there remains a massive trove of damning documentary evidence which will continue to trickle out in the coming months and years. At the very least, the continuing Qatari-Saudi diplomatic war will bear more fruit as each side builds a case against the other with charges of supporting terrorism. And as we can see from this latest Qatari TV interview, the United States itself will not be spared in this new open season of airing dirty laundry as old allies turn on each other.

What Saudis Hope To Get Out Of Russia Ties

Authored by M.K. Bhadrakumr viaThe Strategic Culture Foundation,

The mishap at the Moscow airport on Wednesday when the Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz arrived on a historic visit, was a wake-up call that even the most carefully choregraphed enterprises may hold unpleasant surprises.

When Salman exited his plane and stepped out onto the special escalator he travels with, something went wrong. It malfunctioned halfway down, leaving the king standing awkwardly for about 20 seconds before he decided to walk the rest of the way. For ordinary mortals, this wouldn’t have been an uncommon occurrence but divinity ordains when a king is involved.

Saudi Arabia king uses golden escalator as a airplane stairs. When he arrived to Moscow yesterday, his golden stairs got stuck. pic.twitter.com/h3o1UD8s8p

— English Russia (@EnglishRussia1) October 5, 2017

The Russian-Saudi entente is not going to be smooth. The climactic event last week drawing Saudi Arabia into President Vladimir Putin’s Middle East sphere of influence, must be assessed with a sense of proportions.

Salman had hardly departed from Russian soil when the Pentagon issued a statement announcing that the State Department had on Friday approved a possible US$15-billion sale of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems to Saudi Arabia.

The statement recalled that Saudi Arabia had requested to purchase from America 44 THAAD launchers, 360 missiles, 16 fire control stations and seven radars.

The US officials confirmed that the sale was part of the $110-billion package of defense equipment and services initially announced during US President Donald Trump’s trip to Saudi Arabia in May. The Pentagon statement said, “This potential sale will substantially increase Saudi Arabia’s capability to defend itself against the growing ballistic missile threat in the region.”

The timing of the US announcement is highly significant. It comes in the wake of claims by Russian officials that Saudi Arabia had shown interest in buying the S-400 missile defense system from Russia. The Saudis have successfully pressured the Trump administration to approve the sale of the THAAD system. And Washington has signaled that the US will not let Russia make an entry into the Saudi arms bazaar.

Hard-nosed realpolitik

The hard-nosed realpolitik in the Saudi-Russian entente had a dramatic start when the then Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan visited Russia and held a four-hour meeting with Putin at the latter’s dacha outside Moscow in early August 2013. According to media leaks from Russian sources, the Prince allegedly confronted the Kremlin with a mix of inducements and threats in a bid to break Russia’s support for the Syrian regime, which Riyadh was trying to overthrow.

Bandar’s package was riveted on the alluring proposal of a unified Russian-Saudi strategy to keep oil production quantities at a level that keeps the price stable in global markets via an alliance between the OPEC cartel and Russia. And, in return for throwing the Syrian regime under the bus – thereby leaving Iran to face the brunt of the ISIS threat – Bandar promised that Russia could retain the naval base in Taurus under a successor regime in Damascus and be assured of security from a ‘jihadi’ backlash.

The Kremlin apparently spurned the overture in a huff. At any rate, by the beginning of 2014, symptoms of a new Cold War began appearing in Russia’s relations with the West following the regime change in Ukraine. The year 2015 also saw a ‘transition’ in Saudi Arabia with the death of King Abdullah. Of course, the year ended with Russia’s military intervention in Syria.

However, the seeds left behind by Bandar began sprouting and with the Russian economy feeling the crunch from Western sanctions, the fall in oil prices on the world market assumed an existential overtone for the Kremlin. The challenge of the US oil shale industry also meant that Saudi-Russian cooperation became a practical necessity. The rest is history.

Agreement to cut oil production

Indeed, the hallmark of Salman’s visit to Moscow has been the pledge by the two countries to carry forward their agreement to cut oil production. Putin disclosed that the deal to cut oil output to boost prices could be extended till the end of 2018, instead of expiring in March 2018.

Putin described his talks with the Saudi king as “very substantive, informative and very trusting”. And Russian commentators have hyped up that Saudi Arabia is “leaning toward Moscow in solving the Syrian crisis”. The Russian reports mentioned that Moscow and Riyadh are eyeing cooperation on nuclear energy, space exploration, plus infrastructure and arms deals.

However, Bandar’s proposal on oil production still remains the leitmotif of Saudi-Russian cooperation, as apparent from the rise in oil prices this week – as word came that Saudi Arabia and Russia would limit oil production through next year. (Brent crude was up 70 cents at $56.50 per barrel on Thursday.)

The point is, how do the Saudis view their ties with Russia? Are they aiming at a geopolitical shift in the Middle East? Evidently, Salman’s visit underscores that the Saudi and Russian leaders have decided to shift their focus toward common interests rather than let disagreements crowd the centre stage of relations. But then, the THAAD deal signals that Saudi Arabia also has a ‘big picture’ of itself being a major regional and international player.

Suffice to say, the Saudis are shifting away from their special relations with the West to a balanced foreign policy by opening up with Russia and creating multiple options for pursuing national interests. To be sure, the Saudis hope to diversify their partnerships based on common interests. While disagreements remain with Moscow over Syria – and notwithstanding the close ties between Moscow and Tehran – the Saudis have adopted a realistic policy toward the Kremlin.

Most certainly, the Saudi expectation is that at some point, the prospect of lucrative business opportunities would encourage the Kremlin to balance Russia’s relations with Iran. Basically, Bandar’s overture to Putin remains the bottom line.

Who's Really Trying To Overthrow Mohammed Bin Salman?

Authored by Andrew Karybko via Oriental Review,

Saudi Arabia arrested between 16-30 people in a broad crackdown across the Kingdom.

According to reports, this is different than the many other times that it happened because the latest incident includes a wide variety of seemingly disparate individuals such as clerics, a journalist, and even a prince, and comes amid a flurry of speculation that King Salman is considering abdicating in favor of the young Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

Critics claim that this is being undertaken in order for Salman’s successor to preemptively consolidate power in staving off any unrest that might result from his possibly imminent ascent to the throne, while the government says that it was actually dismantling a foreign intelligence network linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and Houthis.

Riyadh’s assertions are a thinly veiled euphemism to suggest that Qatar and Iran are behind this shadowy regime change plot, but it’s very unlikely that either of them is involved, and Riyadh may have just said they were in order to diplomatically deflect attention from the true culprit.

Here’s why.

Iran and Qatar are close with Russia and China, and the latter two Great Powers are actually enjoying a renaissance of relations with Saudi Arabia right now.

While one might expect this to make Tehran and Doha jealous, the opposite is true – Moscow and Beijing’s developing high-level strategic partnerships with Riyadh are designed to bring balance to the Mideast by weaning the Kingdom away from Washington and slowly but surely integrating it into the emerging Multipolar World Order, which will never be perfect or without friction, but is still a step in the right direction. In order to appreciate what’s happening, one needs to be reminded of a few things that have happened this past year when it comes to Saudi Arabia’s relations with Russia and China.

Concerning Moscow, Riyadh agreed to an historic OPEC output deal with Russia last year and renewed it a few months ago after it expired.

The Saudis are also cooperating with the Russians in encouraging Syria’s so-called “opposition” to merge into a unified entity for facilitating peace talks with Damascus. Foreign Minister Lavrov was just in the Kingdom last week, and King Salman is expected to visit Moscow sometime next month.

As for China, Beijing signed a total of over $110 billion of deals with Saudi Arabia in the past six months alone in an effort to assist the Crown Prince’s ambitious Vision 2030 program of economic modernization. It’s that initiative more so than anything else which holds the danger of inadvertently destabilizing the country’s internal affairs because of the opposition that it’s come under from some of Saudi Arabia’s many radical clerics who are against the social consequences of its reforms.

Bearing all of this in mind, it’s worthwhile to revisit the question of who has an interest in destabilizing Saudi Arabia right at the moment that it’s turning away from the US and towards Russia and China, timing their subversive efforts to coincide with a prolonged leadership change and an economic transition.

By all indicators, those aren’t the hallmarks of an Iranian or Qatari operation, but the red flag for an American one.