Paul Craig Roberts Warns "The French Election Is A Catastrophe For World Peace"

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

Marine Le Pen’s defeat, if the vote count was honest, indicates that the French are even more insouciant than Americans.

The week before the election the Russian high command announced that Washington had convinced the Russian military that Washington intended a preemptive nuclear first strike against Russia. No European leader saw danger in this annoucement except Le Pen.

No European leader, and no one in Washington, has stepped forward to reassure the Russians. In the US apparently only my readers even know of the Russian conclusion. Simply nothing is said in the Western media about the extraordinary risk of convincing Russia that the US is preparing a first strike against Russia.

Nothing in the 20th century Cold War comes close to this.

Le Pen, as Trump did prior to his castration by the military/security complex, understands that military conflict with Russia means death for humanity.

Why were the French voters unconcerned with what may be their impending deaths?

The answer is that the French have been brainwashed into believing that to stand for France, as Marine Le Pen does, is to place patriotism and nationalism above diversity and is fascist.

All of Europe, except for the majority of the British, has been brainwashed into the belief that it is Hitler-like or fascist to stand up for your country. For a French man or woman to escape the fascist designation, he or she must be Europeans, not French, German, Dutch, Italian, Greek, Spanish, Portuguese.

Brainwashed as the French are that it is fascist to stand up for France, the French voted for the international bankers and for the EU.

The French election was a disaster for Europeans, but it was a huge victory for the American neoconservatives who will now be able to push Russia to war without European opposition.

Watch Live: French Activists, Unions Clash With Riot Police In First Anti-Macron Protest

Macron won the French presidential elections against Marine Le Pen. Now comes the hard part.

Emmanuel Macron may have won Sunday"s presidential election by a comfortable margin, but even his supporters" enthusiasm is tempered by the scale of the challenge that the inexperienced politician faces in tackling France"s deep-seated economic, social and security problems, Reuters notes. Macron, the former economy minister of the Francois Hollande - whose regime led to a dramatic deterioration in the French economy - and who had never previously stood for elected office, is facing his first major protest less than 24 hours after being elected, with activists and unions holding a protest on Monday against Macron’s proposed labour reforms plans.

And, according to French press reports, tensions are rising in the post-vote protest in Paris against President-elect Emmanuel Macron, as well as against the upcoming economic reforms. Police have briefly engaged in scuffles with protesters, according to Reuters, which adds that a hundred and forty-one people were arrested in Paris after trouble flared overnight following Emmanuel Macron"s victory in France"s presidential election, police said on Monday.

Those detained in Menilmontant, a north-eastern district of Paris, were accused of offences ranging from throwing missiles at the police to damaging property. The demonstrators were protesting both against Macron - criticized by many on France"s far left as a member of a discredited elite in thrall to global capitalism - and against his defeated far-right nationalist rival, Marine Le Pen.

Riot police stands in a street while people take part in a demonstration on May 8/ AFP

“He is not our president”, “Say No to the new labor reform!”, “Say No to repression”, read the banners held by demonstrators.

Representatives of trade unions, left wing groups, as well as anti-fascists and anarchists are taking part in the rally, according to French media

... et la police compresse la 1ere manif contre #Macron à l"arrière du cortège. (2/2) pic.twitter.com/sbPtHFpYQZ

— Marie-Lys Lubrano (@MarieLysLubrano) May 8, 2017

“En Marche! is pushing towards social war” said another banner held by protesters. The En Marche! political party was created by Macron in 2016 after he stepped down as Economy Minister under Francois Hollande’s government to join the presidential race.

.@SolidairesEtu "En marche vers la guerre sociale"#frontsocial pic.twitter.com/AQfda6CdRy

— hajoura74 (@hajoura74) May 8, 2017

Grosse présence policière à la manif contre la politique social du président élu Macron. #frontsocial #8mai @LCI pic.twitter.com/VVyjodPPyS

— Antoine Llorca (@antoinellorca) May 8, 2017

Activists announced before the presidential run-off that they would demonstrate regardless of who won, saying that both Macron’s and rival Marine Le Pen’s policies are anti-social.

Manif syndicale anti-Macron place de la République à Paris pic.twitter.com/iGn3RA0t5u

— Alexandre Habay (@alexhabay) May 8, 2017

The protests are not over: the hardline leftist CGT labor union planned a demonstration in the capital later in the day against the kind of liberal economic policies that Macron espouses.

What's Next For President Macron

As noted earlier, following Macron"s victory the reaction in key FX crosses and pairs has been very subdued, suggesting today"s outcome was no surprise to traders at least in terms of technical positioning. Another reason why "the news may be getting sold" is that as Deutsche Bank and various other sellsiders suggested, another near-term hurdle looms in just a few weeks time with the French parliamentary elections.

Other immediate deliverables include naming a prime minister, forming a government, passing labor market reform, and negotiating Brexit. Here is a breakdown of what the immediate next steps facing the youngest ever French president are, courtesy of a late Sunday note out of Deutsche Bank.

France: Macron President, what next?

Emmanuel Macron won the second round of the presidential election capturing ~65% of the expressed votes against Le Pen. The turnout was satisfactory at ~75% but lower than previous presidential elections. Also, ~10% of the votes were blank, two to three times the usual share. Ultimately, far-left voters supported Macron more than expected by the latest polls.

This is a disappointing result for the National Front. In 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen against centre-right candidate Chirac had gathered 18% of the expressed votes in the second round. In 2017, Marine Le Pen gathered 35%. The National Front rise is less impressive than these figures suggest. In 2002, it captured 14% of the electorate once accounting for abstention, and ~23% in 2017.

Macron will now have to name a Prime Minister with parliamentary experience, able to lead the lower-house election campaign and then manage the daily business of parliamentary politics. He mentioned that his PM name and government will be revealed after the inauguration that needs to happen by 14 May.

As we wrote in Focus Europe on Friday 5 May, recent electoral results and polls suggest that Macron"s party could be the main party in the French lower house post 11-18 June elections. An outright majority for his new party "En Marche!" appears numerically possible. If not, a majority could be reached with the participation of moderate centre-left and/or centreright MPs who have already expressed their preparedness to govern with Macron in such a situation. In the coming weeks, Macron will be hoping to convince them to directly join his party, while they may be very reluctant to take the risk.

In terms of reform timetables, Macron aims to pass labour market reforms quickly over the Summer 2017, take more time to pass unemployment reforms at the end of 2017 and take a longer perspective on simplifying the retirement system (see here for details).

Regarding Brexit and the EU, Macron has run on a pro-EU platform and has repeatedly explained his ambition to make France an equal partner to Germany. He will most likely prioritise the relationship with Germany over Brexit. A victory by Macron at the presidential election is unlikely to lead to easier negotiations for the UK.

Lowest Turnout Since 1974 As France Decides The "Future Of The EU"

Update: as of 5pm, the French voter participation was 65.3%, which is the lowest in presidential elections going back at least all the way to 1988:

• 2017 : 65.30%


• 2012 : 71.96%


• 2007 : 75.11%


• 2002 : 67.62%


• 1995 : 66.07%


• 1988 : 70.63%

And according to a separate accounts, the voter turnout was the lowest going back all the way to 1974.

#Presidentielle2017 : participation à 65,3% à 17:00. (71,96 % en 2012 et 75,11 % en 2007)./Ministère pic.twitter.com/YYAHgjEBrz

— LesNews (@LesNews) May 7, 2017

An estimate by elabe/BFMTV estimates the final voter turnout at just 74%, which would make it the lowest since 1969.

Estimate for final voter turnout - 74% (@elabe_fr/@BFMTV) lowest since 1969.
2012 - 80.35%
2007 - 83.97%
2002 - 79.71%
1995 - 79.66%

— Andrew Connell (@andrewiconnell) May 7, 2017

* * *

According to the French interior ministry some 28.54% of registered voters have cast their votes in the presidential election by 12:00 a.m. local time (1000 GMT) on Sunday, a lower than expected initial turnout and the lowest at this stage of the day since the 2002 presidential poll, when it was 26.19%. Prior midday turnouts were 30.66% and 34.11% in 2012 and 2007, respectively. A final turnout of 75% is expected at this election; the eventual turnouts in 2002, 2007 and 2012 were all above 80 percent.

Voter apathy did not prevent both candidates from voting for themselves, however, and both did so early on Sunday.

Emmanuel Macron casts his ballot at a polling station in Le Touquet, France.

Marine Le Pen casts her ballot at a polling station in Henin-Beaumont, France.

While parallels with the US election in November have suggested that a low turnout may have an adverse impact for Macron, it remains unclear who is the biggest winner from French voter apathy. Pollsters have said abstentions would be highest among left-wing voters, disappointed by Sunday"s choice after nine other candidates were eliminated in first round, but it is unclear what a high or low turnout could mean for the outcome. That said, even a modest boost for Le Pen based on early voting patterns would likely be insufficient if latest polls are an indication: Macron was set to win the head-to-head with between 61.5 and 63 percent of the vote, according to the last opinion polls on Friday

As two weeks ago, polling stations at France"s European continent opened at 8 a.m. (0600 GMT) and will run for a maximum of 12 hours. Those in the largest cities will close at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT). In France"s oversea territories, the voting was held on Saturday. Over 47 million French voters are registered to cast their votes at some 69,000 polling stations.

The stakes are familiar: as Reuters puts it, "Macron, who wants to deregulate the economy and deepen EU integration, is set to win the head-to-head with between 61.5 and 63 percent of the vote, according to the last opinion polls on Friday. Should an upset occur and Le Pen win, the very future of the EU could be on the line given her desire to close borders, dump the euro currency, and tear up trade treaties."

In an analysis posted yesterday, famous French investor Charles Gave said that even a Macron victory would result in "total mayhem" in France as the resulting parliamentary elections would likely lead to broad governance chaos. Furthermore, even a defeat would be seen a victory of sorts for Le Pen: the 48 year-old"s vote is likely to be about twice what her party scored the last time it reached the presidential second round in 2002, demonstrating the scale of voter disaffection with mainstream politics in France.

Markets, meanwhile, are confident a Macron victory is assured.

"We increased our equity exposure and added some French stocks after the first round," said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Geneva-based fund management firm Prime Partners. "The major political risk of a Le Pen victory appears to be disappearing."

After a campaign in which favourites dropped out of the race one after the other, Le Pen is nevertheless closer to elected power than the far right has been in France since World War Two. If opinion polls prove accurate and the country elects its youngest-ever president rather than its first female leader, Macron himself has said himself he expects no honeymoon period.

Macron"s task will be difficult: up to 60% of potential voters for the young politician have said they will do so to stop Le Pen from being elected to lead the euro zone"s second-largest economy, rather than because they fully support the former banker turned politician. "I don"t necessarily agree with either of the candidates," psychotherapist Denise Dulliand, who was voting in Annecy in the mountainous southeast, told Reuters. "But I wanted to express my voice, to be able to say that I came, even if I am really not satisfied with what is happening in our country, and that I would like to see less stupidity, less money and more fraternity." Should Macron disappoint, it is quite likely that the fickle electorate will turn quickly against Francois Hollande"s former cabinet member.

Whether Macron"s supporters will get their wish to see Le Pen lose, will be revealed at 8pm local time, when the first exit polls are disclosed.

Meanwhile, investors are already setting their sights on the upcoming French parliamentary elections next month in which the new president will try to secure a majority in parliament. According to Reuters, much will depend on how the candidates score on Sunday. Le Pen"s niece, Marion Marechal-Le Pen, on Thursday told L"Opinion daily that winning 40 percent of the vote would be "a huge victory" for the National Front, something Charles Gave echoed yesterday,who said Le Pen"s daughter is poised to be a formidable force in 2022 presidential elections.

In any case, whoever wins, the result will be "historic" and will open a new chapter in French politics, with both French legacy parties, the Socialists and The Republicans that have ruled France for decades, swept away from the chance to retain power for the first time in decades, in an embarrassing defeat in which the French population denounced an establishment status quo that has failed them.

Belgian Press: Macron Has Between 63% And 64% Of The Vote

While French pollsters and poli-pundits are prohibited from providing "hot-takes" or preliminary exit-polls ahead of the closing of polls at 8pm local time, the Belgian press is not similarly constrained, and according to L"Echo, citing early exit polls, Macron would win the vote with between 63% and 64% of the vote, while empty ballots would represents about 10%.

Entre 63% et 64% pour #Macron et 10% de blancs et nuls #sondage sortie des urnes https://t.co/U1u9E7l263 #Presidentielle2017 pic.twitter.com/8y3MA9pXOS

— L"Echo (@lecho) May 7, 2017

The Belgian newspaper adds that, as noted earlier, according to figures from the Ministry of the Interior, the participation rate in metropolitan France at 5pm amounted to 65.30%, the lowest participation rate in decades. It also adds that the abstention rate in today"s vote is expected to reach 25% to 27% on the day.

Still, as the Telegraph cautions, while it was thought that Mr Macron could build a larger voting base than Ms Le Pen - as he was expected to mop up votes in the second round from those who support mainstream Right and Left candidates in the first - it appeared last night that a large number of supporters for the conservative, Francois Fillon, and the far-Left Jean-Luc Melenchon stayed home on election day.  And a vast number chose to spoil their ballots or abstain at the polls - as many as 29% of voters, according to one estimate.

Furthermore, take such early forecasts with a grain of salt. As Bloomberg"s European analyst Maxime Sbaihi writes, "French authorities" warning: no "reliable" estimate can be made before 7.45pm. Don"t trust what you see before that."

French authorities" warning: no "reliable" estimate can be made before 7.45pm. Don"t trust what you see before that. https://t.co/MzchgBOqdj pic.twitter.com/XmGpkH6VNE

— Maxime Sbaihi (@MxSba) May 7, 2017

He also provides the following breakdown of how to read the final score:

How to interpret #Macron"s score tonight?

• bad < 55% < weak < 60% < fair enough < 63% < landslide < 65% < plebiscite

How to interpret #LePen"s score tonight?

• 45% > success > 40% > passable > 37% > meager > 35% > FN mutiny

* * *

Some other highlights: a timelapse clip showing a Paris polling station:

The Telegraph also reports that Libération newspaper says it is boycotting the electoral events of Marine Le Pen this evening - whether she wins or loses - in solidarity with other French and foreign media outlets who have been refused access to them.

The left-wing daily says it will not carry any coverage of the events, during which Ms Le Pen is due to make a speech after the election results are announced, because the Front National has refused access to the gathering in a park in the east of Paris tonight to about a dozen media organisations. "These anti-democratic measures, which are also contrary to the right to keep the public informed, must stop, as must the intimidation of journalists in (Le Pen) political rallies," wrote senior Libération editor Johan Hufnagel.

Why Charles Gave Expects "Total Mayhem" In France Even If Macron Is Elected

Venerable French investor Charles Gave has been managing money and researching markets for over 40 years; as such France’s elder statesman of asset allocation perhaps best captures the mood ahead of the most crucial Presidential election in a generation. In conversation with Dr. Pippa Malmgren, Charles breaks down national politics to understand why voters have rejected the establishment and the market impact of both outcomes, and what to expect from tomorrow"s election.

First, Gave, who says "I"m not so sure that Macron will win", is asked by Malmgren to walk RealVision viewers through what Macron"s agenda would look like in case of a victory. Gave is unable to do so for several simple reasons:

Well, first, nobody knows. Because during the whole campaign, all these talks were on one hand, on the other. I"m in favor of apple pie, and motherhood, you see. Basically he has, to my knowledge, very little program. So he"s running. That is what Hollande said. That he was going to make some fundamental changes without hurting people. And so Macron is a big, empty suit. That"s what he is. You did the right curriculum vitae, he went to the right schools. And you have the feeling that the guy never had an original idea in his life. He was always a good student.

And moreover, there is a strong suspicion that he"s a kind of golem created by Hollande and all these guys. So since they knew they were going to lose the election, they created a guy in a hologram that would run for them and prevent them from losing power. So to a certain extent, the French political system has been captured by what you can call the Technocratic class. And whether from the left or the right, it didn"t make any difference. And this Technocratic class is presenting Macron as a brand new fellow. He is nothing brand new. These guys have been in power for 50 years for God"s sakes. So this is basically nothing.

Gave is then asked for his take on the market"s reaction, first to the outcome which now appears to be fully priced in, i.e., a Macron victory. The French investor"s response should be concerning to those who believe France is in for a period of calm and stability.

If Macron is elected, as I already said, I"m not sure it"s not going to be a triumphant election. So I"m not sure they will have that much legitimacy at first. And second thing is that just after, we have the election for the French Parliament. And then it"s going to be a total mayhem. Because you have four main different currents in France. The extreme left, the Macron left, you see? You have the Fillon right, and you have Le Pen"s right. So you have four. The way it"s done before is that you had only three. Extreme left and the left were joined. And you had the election, you had three guys, and if anyone from the Front National had any chance of being elected, then the worst position of the other two retired. Right away. And said, you must vote for my usual enemy, but we don"t want to. It’s what’s called the Front Republic.

But you see, it"s kind of easy to organize if the organization of the parties are very strong and can force people to retire and to stop running. But if you have four, the organization of the parties having lost all credibility, then nobody is going to retire. Until we are going to have elections. And you could have a majority of MP"s from the Front National The majority of MP"s from Melenchen. Anything is possible. So the fact that Macron is elected doesn"t reduce at all. Not at all. The political risk in France. It may reappear at the election time, big time. So anybody who buys on the idea that the problem is solved in France, let’s move to the next one will have to wait till the middle of June.

Alternatively, what if Le Pen wins:

If Le Pen wins, it"s pretty simple. The bond market in France, Italy, Spain cannot open on Monday morning. And I suppose the euro is dead in the following week. And then you have to buy Europe like crazy. Southern Europe.

Why Southern Europe? Because it is Germany"s markets that would bear the brunt of the selloff, as the dissolution of the euro and European Union would effectively bring about the end of Germany"s economic hegemony (while at the same time benefitting France).

The Germans have made a colossal mistake, which is that they have all the production in Germany. So they"re extremely efficient, well-organized, and they have developed massive current account surpluses. Half of that surplus is in cars. The margin on cars is around 4%. Imagine that the euro breaks down. The deutschmark comes back. The deutschmark goes up 15, 20%. And the whole German industry, all the production base in Germany, becomes bankrupt in no time at all. Compare that to France. France we have magnificent big companies that have been intelligent enough to produce everywhere in the world, to operate from everywhere in the world, and be totally independent from what"s happening in France. What they have in France is their headquarters. And that"s about it. So if Europe breaks, you should be long France on the stock market, and short Germany. Big time.

Would a Le Pen victory also mean the end of the EU? Gave answers:

I wrote a book in 2002, sometime around then, called "Lions Led by Donkeys in France." It was kind of a bestseller. And I made the point in the book that the euro is going to destroy Europe, the European institutions. And I said, we must get rid of the euro to save Europe. So name of the game, if we have some kind of a crisis like that, is to basically close the market for three weeks and organize an orderly dismembering of the euro. But to maintain what has been good so far, which is the kind of common market. And it"s a difficult call because the movement towards the euro was also a movement to create a European nation.

And so the institutions today are basically federal in nature. But nobody in Europe has ever voted for them. So to a certain extent, the guys with power in Brussels have not been elected by anybody, and you cannot fire them. So it"s totally Technocratic. So we have a hell of a problem. We should not only destroy the euro, but should move back to what Europe was in 1988 or 1987 before they put all these Federalist legislations in. That is going to be a tall order. But if the euro disappears and Europe has a problem, then the negotiating between the UK and Europe is going to be amusing. Because UK is going to say, look, who are we going to negotiate with?

Finally, on his big picture thoughts ahead of tomorrow"s decisive election:"it"s going to be a close call, a lot closer than people think. And then we have the elections afterwards, which are going to be a total gamble." Gave adds that in a sense Le Pen has already won because the "worst case scenario" for her, the 2022 elections, is still achievable. As for the parliamentary elections, "Le Pen could have anywhere between 40 to 100 MP"s (she currently has two).... which would be a total disaster for the ruling class."

In other words, even if Macron triumphs on Sunday, "the National Front isn"t going anywhere." Furthermore, Le Pen"s niece Marion Le Pen is poised to inherit the mantle of party leadership in time for the next presidential election in 2022. The younger Le Pen, already a French MP, would have a distinct advantage over her astringent aunt:

Marion, she"s very young. She"s 27, 28. She"s an MP in the French Parliament. She"s extremely pretty. And she represents what"s probably very good in the French Catholic Right. She"s very much a Christian person. Very much so. So a lot of people have problems voting for Mrs. Le Pen today. A lot of the Fillon"s elector would have absolutely no problem voting for Marion, you see what I mean? So she has a big appeal on the Classical French Right. Big one. Big one.

His parting words:"be careful. If she wins, you will have a disaster in the lot of the European bond market. Doesn"t mean a total disaster for the good quality companies. But the risk is not on the stock market. The risk is on the bond market. So be careful. Don"t overstay on the bonds in Europe."

While these are the core excerpts from the interview with Charles Gave, there is much more in the full 40 minute version found on RealVision TV.

Path To Le Pen Victory: What Would It Take?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Recent opinion polls for round two of the French election on May 7 show Emanuel Macron with 59-60% and Marine Le Pen 40-41%.

Le Pen is trending up from April 24 results that were as low as 36-37%.

Still, Le Pen has a long way to go. Can she close the gap? How?

French Election Polls

The above from French Election Polls on Wikipedia.

Results show the two candidates combined only got 45% of the vote in the first round. Apathy and distrust are strong.

Political Ambush

On Wednesday, April 27, Macron met with striking Whirlpool workers at a planned event in Amiens, Macron’s hometown. In a surprise political ambush, Le Pen showed up first and was greeted with cheers and selfie opportunities.

Macron Faces Hostile Crowd

The most recent poll show Macron falling below 60%. There may be more fallout from the ambush coming up. Even if one believes that support for Le Pen is a bit understated, picking up another 7-9% is a tough act to expect.

Close the Gap? How?

It’s possible Le Pen closes the gap, in a roundabout way: abstentions. Eurointelligence explains.

The researcher Serge Galam confirms what we suspected all along: it does not take much for Marine Le Pen to win if voters abstain. Galam looked into what it takes for her to win under different abstention scenarios. He starts with the vote intentions as suggested by the polls, 42% for Le Pen and 58% for Emmanuel Macron. Then, if 90% of the FN voters go to vote but only 65% of those for Macron, Le Pen would end up winning with 50.07%. For Macron the threshold to win is thus 65.17%. This threshold is even higher the closer the two get in the polls. Assuming Le Pen wins two points in the polls and gets 44% of voters intentions, then the threshold for Macron would be 70.71%. So for 2 extra points in the voters intentions for Le Pen the barrier for Macron to win rises by 5 percentage points. We know that the voters behind Le Pen are much more loyal and steadfast than the votes for Macron. Many backed Macron unenthusiastically to block Le Pen. Since the first round, there is a clear rise in aversion against Macron. The absence of a clear backing from Mélenchon and the hashtag #SansMoiLe7Mai on twitter give solidarity to those who consider abstaining, Le Figaro explains. Students from schools and universities mobilized yesterday for a ni-ni: a no to Le Pen and her nationalism, and a no to Macron as a “boss”.

Ni-Ni Mobilized, SansMoiLe7Mai

A ni-ni is “neither nor”. SansMoiLe7Mai translates as “Without Me May 7”.

Abstentions

An amazing 71-80% of those who supported Benoît Hamon are for Macron, with as low as 1% for Le Pen. But Hamon only received 6.36% of the vote in round one.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon received 19.58% of the vote while François Fillon received 20.01%. Those are the votes that will matter most. It is difficult to judge the likelihood of that combined 39.58% block of disenfranchised voters does indeed vote in round two.

Looking at the first set of polls at the top, somewhere between 17% and 29% of the electorate plans to abstain. The average of 22%, 29%, and 17% is 22.67%. Those abstainers are already factored into the 59-41% poll estimate for May 7.

Voting Intention Averages

• On average, 39.33% of Mélenchon supporters claim they will abstain. 39.33% of 19.58% is 7.66%.


• On average, 30.67% of Fillon supporters claim they will abstain. 30.67% of 20.01% is 6.14%.


• On average, 24.33% of Hamon supporters claim they will abstain. 24.33% of 6.36% is 1.55%.

Curiously, the combined abstainers from the Mélenchon plus Fillon plus Hamon camp is only 15.35% whereas the average overall abstention percentage is 22.67%.

That margin says suggests there is an extra pool of voters who intend to sit this out. Assuming Le Pen supporters are more enthusiastic, the extra block of abstainers must come primarily from those who voted for Macron but now intend to sit it out.

Determining Questions

1. Will enough weak Macron supporters turn up to vote?


2. Will the “ni-ni” campaign have an impact that does not show up in the polls?


3. Is there a pool of Le Pen supporters who simply do not tell pollsters their intention?


4. Will Macron’s Whirlpool gaffe be a factor?

To win, Le Pen needs to capitalize on Macron’s gaffe. She also needs low turnout and a ni-ni impact that affects Macron more than it does her.

This is an uphill battle, but possible, and more likely than most expect.

Here we go again: Globalists laughably claim Russia helped Marine Le Pen in French election

Exact same anti-Trump disinfo now being used against Le Pen

(INTELLIHUB) — In yet another transparent attempt to take out those standing against the forces of globalism, a “security” firm has released a new report that claims Russian hackers targeted French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron in a move to help National Front leader Marine Le Pen.

That’s right, the EXACT same deep state fueled disinformation that has been used to target Donald Trump in the United States is now being pushed in France as a response to the stunning fact that despite wide-spread negative media coverage, Le Pen has made it to the second round of the French election.

It truly doesn’t get any more pathetic than this.

Apparently unable to see the transparent nonsense, the New York Times frantically reported on the new claims as if they were an established fact – exactly what they have done to Donald Trump for months.

“The report has heightened concerns that Russia may turn its playbook on France in an effort to harm Mr. Macron’s candidacy and bolster that of Mr. Macron’s rival, the National Front leader Marine Le Pen, in the final weeks of the French presidential campaign,” reported the Times.

“Security researchers at the cybersecurity firm, Trend Micro, said that on March 15 they spotted a hacking group they believe to be a Russian intelligence unit turn its weapons on Mr. Macron’s campaign — sending emails to campaign officials and others with links to fake websites designed to bait them into turning over passwords.”

The Times report goes on to list a series of claims published by Trend Micro that sound plausible but are most likely yet another deep state propaganda push to target politicians that stand against the “new world order”.

What the New York Times fails to inform its readers is that Wikileaks has already revealed that western intelligence agencies have the ability to conduct hacks and then pin them on Russia. This fact apparently isn’t important to the establishments favorite newspaper.

As Infowars reported, “It is worth noting that the recent WikiLeaks data drop of CIA cyber-warfare documents, dubbed “Vault 7,” revealed information that the CIA maintains a substantial library of Russian cyber-attack techniques “stolen” from malware produced in other states, including Russia, in a project identified as “Umbrage.”

While this new attack on Le Pen may seem laughable to anyone actually following the real news, it is concerning none the less especially when you consider that it could be used to directly take out Marine Le Pen and insert a former banker as the leader of France.

Alex Thomas is an opinion journalist and editor for Intellihub News. He was a founding member of what later became Intellihub.com and an integral part of the team that destroyed the mainstream media blockade on Bilderberg in 2012. You can contact him here.

Featured Image: Blandine Le Cain/Flickr

©2017. INTELLIHUB.COM. All Rights Reserved.

Can Macron Save The World? Save France?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The markets appear giddy over the election prospects of Emanuel Macron in France.

Equities are up along with bond yields. Gold is down.

Macron won round one of the French election Sunday and will square off against Marine Le Pen in round two on May 7. He is widely expected to win round two, becoming the next president of France.
 

Policy Advancement

Can Macron Save the World? Save France?

Let’s phrase this a different way. Can Macron advance his policies?

I would ask the same question if Marine Le Pen were expected to win. Macron will not have a mandate. Neither would Le Pen if she were to win.

Certainly, the EU would prefer working with Macron. With Le Pen at the helm, France could throw Brexit negotiations for a loop.

internally, Macron has his work cut out for him. Here are their policies as described by the Guardian.

Macron Policies

Remake the “failed” and “vacuous” French political system; relax labor laws; cut business taxes; reform unemployment system; encourage social mobility; cut public spending (but boost investment); shrink public sector; reduce the number of MPs; establish eurozone government; hire 10,000 more police and gendarmes.

He says: “I will work over the coming fortnight so that together we can gather as many people as possible around my candidacy. The strength of this coming together will be decisive for the government. The challenge this evening is not to vote against a person, but to decide to break completely with a system that has been incapable of responding to our country’s problems for 30 years.

Le Pen Policies

Policies: Priority for French nationals in jobs, housing, welfare; extra tax on foreign workers and imports; proportional representation in parliament; negotiate with EU for return of “full sovereignty” including the franc; in-out referendum on EU membership; cut immigration to 10,000 a year; restrict nationality rights; hire 15,000 police; create 40,000 more prison places.

She says: “The French people now have a very simple choice: either we continue on the path to complete deregulation, or you choose France.

Questions

1. Would the French parliament go along with relaxing labor laws? Cut business taxes?


2. Would the parliament allow a referendum on the Euro?

If the answers are no and no, then what’s changed?

The real battle over the survival of the eurozone will take place in Italy, not France.

French Stocks Surge Off Technical Support After Overnight Poll

Nothing says existential fear for the EU like buying the f**king French dip on the heels of an overnight poll that simply confirmed expectations that the worst case scenario "Le Pen - Melenchon" second round was still a significant outlier. French stocks soared 1.7% - the most in 6 weeks - bouncing off the 50-day moving average.

We suspect given the massive hedge positions being laid out that this kind of volatility will be the new normal for the next week or so... 

Notice CAC bounced perfectly off the 50DMA

It was a broad-based rally, with banking stocks among top gainers: BNP Paribas +4.2%, Societe Generale +3.8%, Credit Agricole +3%.

CAC 40 is “taking centre stage and moving higher on the belief that Emmanuel Macron will make it to the final vote this weekend,” Michael Hewson, a market analyst at CMC Markets, wrote in a note.

Following are first-round voting intention estimates in Harris Interactive-France Televisions poll for the French presidential election. Changes from Apr. 13 are in brackets.

• Emmanuel Macron 25% (+1 point)


• Marine Le Pen 22% (unchanged)


• Francois Fillon 19% (-1 point)

And overall, Le Pen"s odds of final victory have fallen notably (below Fillon) according to Oddschecker.

Still, we all know what polls are worth.

Meanwhile, Europeans really don"t care...  

The European Commission’s consumer-confidence index for the euro area jumped the most in five months in April. The advance put the index at its highest since March 2015, matching the strongest reading since before the financial crisis. The latest figures were far better than economists had anticipated and mark another step in the region’s economic recovery for European Central Bank policy makers to consider at their meeting next week.

Europe Gets Its Doomsday Scenario

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

The rise of French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has made a lot of people nervous since, among many other things, she’s in favor of leaving the eurozone, which would pretty much end the common currency. But since polling has shown her making the two-person run-off round but then losing to a mainstream candidate, the euro-elites haven’t seen any reason to panic.

Here, for instance, is a chart based on February polling that shows Le Pen getting the most votes in the first round, but then – when mainstream voters coalesce around her opponent – losing by around 60% – 40%. The establishment gets a bit of a scare but remains firmly in power, no harm no foul.

Then came the past month’s debates in which a previously-overlooked communist candidate named Jean-Luc Mélenchon shook up the major candidates by pointing out how corrupt they all are. Voters liked what they heard and a significant number of them shifted his way.

(France 24) – In a presidential campaign with more twists than a French braid, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s sudden play to become France’s third man — or better — is shaking up the race.

With ten days to go before April 23’s first round vote, the colourful, cultured and cantankerous far-leftist has the frontrunners on the defensive.

Suddenly, the grumpy far-leftist — a showman in a Chairman Mao jacket who openly admired late Venezuelan populist leader Hugo Chavez — holds the mantle of France’s most popular politician. In the course of a whirlwind month, the 65-year-old Mélenchon surged nine spots to number one in weekly glossy Paris Match’s opinion poll. A full 68 percent of those surveyed hold “favourable opinions” of the far-left candidate, the poll by the Ifop-Fiducial firm showed.

On some polls, Mélenchon has now bypassed embattled conservative François Fillon for third place in a presidential race that will see the top two advance to the May 7 run-off.

An Ipsos poll on Tuesday put Mélenchon a half-point ahead of Fillon for third place in the race, behind National Front leader Marine Le Pen and the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron. With 18.5 percent, the far-leftist has gleaned 4.5 percent in just two weeks, with Macron and Le Pen tied on 24 percent.

Mélenchon wants to quit NATO, the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and block European trade treaties with the United States and Canada. He promises a French referendum on whether to stick with the reworked EU he is pledging to negotiate or leave the bloc altogether.

Here’s a chart from the Washington Post showing just how tight the race for the run-off spots has become:

It’s still unlikely that both Le Pen and Mélenchon will make the run-off, but based on the above chart it’s suddenly possible. This would be the cultural equivalent of a Trump – Bernie Sanders race in the US, but with – believe it or not — even higher stakes because both Le Pen and Mélenchon would threaten the existence of both the euro and the European Union, the world’s biggest economic entity.

So it almost doesn’t matter who wins that run-off. Just the prospect of having one or the other in charge would tank the euro and set off a stampede out of Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds, possibly doing irreparable damage to the eurozone before the eventual winner even takes power.

To repeat the theme of this series, when you screw up a country’s finances you take its politics along for the ride.

In France, the right feels betrayed by open borders and excessive regulation,

the left by an unaccountable elite that always seems to profit at everyone else’s expense.

And both sides suffer from soaring debt at every level of society.

So if a fringe candidate doesn’t win this time around, the mainstream will just make an even bigger mess, raising the odds of a fringe victory next a few years hence.

Le Pen Faces Disaster In Election After "Monumental" Computer Error

Despite leading in the polls for Round One, The Express reports that a monumental computer blunder could cost Marine Le Pen the French general election as 500,000 citizens living outside of France have the chance to vote twice.

The election has become extremely close with just 4.5 percentage points separating Macron, Fillon, Mélenchon, and Le Pen...

Which is why this shocking error in election procedures could be the swing to crush Le Pen"s hopes. As The Express reports, half a million people received duplicate polling cards in the post, which would allow them to cast two votes at the first round of the election, held on April 23.

French authorities confirmed they would not be investigating the potential electoral fraud until AFTER the election, when retrospective prosecution may take place.

We are sure this is a simple "accident", but coincidentally (for the establishment), this could crush Ms Le Pen’s dreams of surging to power, as most French nationals living outside of their country are not right wing - demonstrated by the fact many feel they depend on the European Union (EU) to guarantee their stay in foreign countries. Far left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who has surged in the polls recently and threatens to break into the leadership race against Ms Le Pen and Mr Macron, could also benefit from this catastrophic error.

As one French citizen noted:

“This year, this is the first time I have asked myself the question, would I take advantage of this anomaly to vote twice? My candidate was low enough in the polls.”

Voting twice is a crime, but police will only find out if they run a check on the individual through their computer systems.

France’s Interior Ministry has said it will not be invalidating the election because of the duplicate voting glitch.

Democracy, eh?

Wolfgang Schaeuble: "If Muslim Migrants Don&#039;t Like Europe, Go Elsewhere"

Germany"s finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble did everything in his power to infuriate three distinct groups of people today.

First, in a statement that may infuriate several million German immigrants, Schaeuble said that Muslims who migrate to Europe should understand that there are better places for them to live if they do not want to accept the European way of life.

Such migrants who do not accept Europe"s way of living should be told "you have made the wrong decision", Schaeuble said during a round table discussion in Berlin. "There are better places in the world to live under Islamic law than Europe," he added. It was not clear if he was envisioning the US as one of the fallback plans for the millions of migrants Angela Merkel"s open door policies greeted with open arms in 2015.

Then, taking a veiled swipe at some 7 million Greeks, Schauble said that if European countries want to keep the euro, they must implement the common currency"s framework of joint responsibility.

Finally, taking a shot at a substantial portion of the French population, the finance minister said that Germany needs a strong, pro-European France to hold together the European project, veteran German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Wednesday, less than two weeks out from the first round of the French presidential election.

The comments from Schaeuble once again confirmed the German government"s revulsion to National Front presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, who wants to abandon the euro currency and is expected to go through to a run-off vote. A success for Le Pen, and a redenomination of the French franc, would lead to disaster for the euro and likely result in a return to the Deutsche Mark, ending the cheap currency benefits Germany gets from participating in the common currency.

"We need a strong France ... we need a pro-European France," Schaeuble said during a round table discussion in Berlin quoted by Reuters. "We need France to hold together Europe."

"I hope Le Pen does not become French president," he added, seemingly unhappy with the democratic process in France.

It wasn"t just Le Pen, however, as Schauble also took aim at the far left: "Le Pen, Melanchon in the second round would be a nightmare", the finance minister added.

On Tuesday, Schaeuble said that polls show French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron will likely to enter second round voting and win the presidency, and added that he would “probably” vote for former Rothschild banker.

No surprise there.

France votes in the first round of its presidential election in less than two weeks, on April 23, with the top two placed candidates going head-to-head on May 7. Earlier on Wednesday, an Ifop-Fiducial poll showed Le Pen leading narrowly in the first round, but likely to lose the run-off to centrist Emmanuel Macron.

Reiterating Berlin"s need for France to play a full role in the European Union, which was stunned by Britain"s vote last June to leave the bloc, Schaeuble added: "Germany cannot lead Europe alone."

"That doesn"t work, that is completely clear," he said. "We need France at least as much as France needs us." Germany had a responsibility to lead in Europe due to its "geostrategic position", Schaeuble said, but added: "Some people expect too much of us ... politically, we are not as strong as France." To millions of European that may be the best news of the day.

French Presidential Race: Marine LePen Far Ahead Of Rivals In Secret Polling

An editor at French daily, Le Figaro, has alluded to secret polling data which show the Front National’s Marine Le Pen polling close to 34% among those with intentions to vote in the first round of the French presidential election.

Authored by Damien Cowley,

Surveys in the public domain consistently have populist LePen ahead of her rivals in the first round, at 26-28% of intentions to vote but losing to whichever rival she faces in the second.

A score of above 30% in the first round, however, would significantly boost her chances of continuing to victory on May 7th.

In his recent article on the failing efforts of the media and political classes to thwart LePen’s continued rise, editorialist Ivan Rioufol cites ‘sous le manteau’, or hidden surveys in circulation which show LePen likely to score double her father, Jean-Marie LePen’s 2002 score of 16.86%.

The politically correct ‘Maginot line’ of France’s elites can no longer hold out against the popular anger of the French public, Rioufol writes, arguing that the threats by leftist intellectuals and celebrities to quit the country in the event of a LePen victory are actually boosting her campaign. Likewise for scare-mongering media warnings on a ‘return to the 1930s’.

The French media and political establishment are now openly contemplating a LePen victory, with frequent reference to the Front National ‘at the gates of power’, an eventuality until recently considered impossible.

Outgoing president, François Hollande, who describes it as his ‘final duty’ to keep LePen from winning, and who is actively campaigning with government ministers in Front National strongholds to keep LePen from power, has recently admitted that she may win. Privately, Hollande is said to fear that LePen’s support is under-estimated in the opinion polls and that the momentum of a high score in the first round could make it difficult for any rival candidate to beat her in the second.

Marine Le Pen&#039;s Perfect Storm

Authored by Matt Purple via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Polls missed the last two nationalist tremors; they may miss a third

Think of François Fillon as a more polished and experienced Ted Cruz. He might have been president of France until everything came crashing down.

Fillon is a former French prime minister and admirer of Margaret Thatcher whose libertarian-influenced agenda includes a pledge to ax half a million civil service jobs. He was initially dismissed as an also-ran in the center-right Les Républicains presidential primary, up against the seasoned Nicolas Sarkozy and the moderate Alain Juppé. Instead, Fillon thrashed them both, and polls showed him an early favorite for the French presidency, backed by energized conservatives and the Catholic Right. Eschewing first-past-the-post, France holds a runoff election between its top two finishing presidential candidates if neither secures a majority, and forecasts last year showed the finalists would be Fillon and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen. It was to be a rumble on the right, and Fillon was predicted to win in a rout as French leftists and centrists clothespinned their noses and voted to block the radioactive Le Pen.

Or at least, that’s what was supposed to happen. Instead, Fillon was quickly submerged in controversy as it came out that he’d funneled 900,000 euros in public money to his family, a scandal that became known as “Penelopegate” after his implicated wife. An investigation was launched and Fillon’s poll numbers sagged into third place, drawing an intervention from the omnipresent Sarkozy and whispers that Juppé might take over as nominee. But Juppé ultimately declined to run, cognizant of being a moderate beached in a year of fury, and Fillon remained defiant. He would only step down, an aide said, if a planned rally last Sunday turned out to be a dud. Lo and behold, tens of thousands of conservative faithful turned out, and he limped onwards.

France’s political dichotomy has thus been plunged into the unknown. The major parties are sidelined for now, with Fillon a boulder on the back of the center-Right Républicains and the center-Left Parti Socialiste floundering under the stewardship of detested current president François Hollande who is not standing for reelection. Amidst all this, the polling service Oxoda now finds Le Pen running neck-in-neck with another candidate, Emmanuel Macron, an independent whose En Marche! movement is serving as an outlet for the forlorn political center. Macron is a novelty in French politics: an investment banker who was appointed economic minister at the age of thirty seven and who’s still never been elected to public office in his life. He has a youthful charisma that this cliché-deploring writer only reluctantly describes as “Kennedyesque” and his rallies have grown exponentially in size since he entered the race.

The 2016 presidential election in the United States embodied the old versus the new, with Hillary Clinton the conventional and choreographed handmaiden of our hoary political consensus and Donald Trump the populist stick of TNT primed to blow underneath. Assuming present trends hold, the French election this April will be one step advanced, leapfrogging over the mainstream parties entirely and pitting against each other the two flavors of reform that are most likely to dominate Western politics in the years to come. Neither Macron nor Le Pen believes France can continue on its current track and both are proposing ambitious overhauls to the French social contract. After a year that’s seen economic stagnation and rowdy strikes, protests targeting abusive cops and demonstrations against immigration, terrorist attacks, soccer riots, and the southward seeping shock of Brexit, the only thing certain in France is that much has to change.

Le Pen’s appeal is obvious. She’s the Gallic Trump, France’s vessel for the West’s recent flirtation with populism. Head of the Front National, which had long been dismissed as bigoted until she vigorously resuscitated it and expelled its former leader and her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, she’s successfully blended anti-immigrant and anti-Islamic politics with a dedication to the welfare state that isn’t shared by more established French conservatives like Fillon. The nut of her message is that French institutions, benefits, handouts, society, all of it, ought to be reserved for the French and not its newcomers. Because the European Union stands for the globalism and multiculturalism she abhors, she energetically backed Brexit and has promised to hold a referendum on France’s membership in the EU.

The parallels between her candidacy and the Trump Train are undeniable: French voters shrugging that they’ve tried everything else so may as well take a gamble on the neophyte, blue-collar workers ditching the socialists after decades of perceived neglect, immigration as a political keystone joining Left and Right in fury wrought from economic pain. In northeastern France, industrial workers battered by globalization and the shuttering of their blast furnaces—“cathedrals” they call them—are breaking for Le Pen. In the rural middle, farmers, their livelihoods buttressed by Brussels, are stomaching Le Pen’s anti-EU rhetoric in favor of her promise to displace their loathed political class. The cultural flashpoints touted by the Front National—like its pledge to ban the chaste “burqini” swimwear popular among Muslims; “France isn’t burqinis on the beach. France is Brigitte Bardot,” Le Pen told CBS News—have real resonance with both demographics.

Like Le Pen, Macron is also determined to discomfit the French political establishment, which he views as quiescent and self-serving, and he too repudiates traditional party labels, defining himself as “neither left nor right.” But once you place him off the traditional political grid, it becomes evident he’s Le Pen’s antithesis in nearly every other way. He’s a devotee of Europe who believes the solution to the EU’s woes is reform rather than the scrap heap. He advocates for refugees whom he says present an “economic opportunity” and have “remarkable qualifications.” He espouses that inchoate mixture of social liberalism and economic liberalization with which many young people functionally identify. He understands that France’s overregulated and hamstrung economy can’t continue to function as is. He warned President Hollande that a proposed 75 percent tax on millionaires would turn France into “Cuba without the sun.”

The Le Pen-Macron dichotomy, which in many ways runs orthogonal to traditional Left and Right, is far more representative of where the peoples of the West are right now than the mainstream party duopoly. The issues are many. Do economies function better open or half-closed? Is a job something portable and ephemeral or is it a singular and sturdy column of well-being rooted in place? Can the globalization genie be put back in the bottle? Are we citizens of nations or citizens of nations and the world? Should our cardinal civic virtue be tolerance or patriotism? Le Pen’s and Macron’s answers to those questions, splayed on their respective platforms, could not be more diametrically opposed.

France is thus a microcosm of the present, fraught, unsteady Western world, and her election could be a dress rehearsal for our coming political realignment. The conjecture on the lips of European elites is whether Le Pen, whose brand of disruption is far greater anathema to them than Macron’s, can win the presidency. Conventional wisdom dictates that this won’t happen, that Macron will crush Le Pen in the runoff election, flush with support from Socialistes and Républicains determined to obstruct the Front National. But don’t be so certain. Portents were to be found at that Fillon rally last weekend where, amidst pouring rain and wind, conservative activists brimmed with tea party-esque rage towards their own party grandees. “If Fillon is out,” one demonstrator warned, “many of us will vote extreme, I am convinced.” If Le Pen can shepherd those disgruntled Républicains foot soldiers into her fold for the runoff, her chances will improve significantly.

Of course, the polls show . . . but who really cares what the polls show? They failed to register the last two nationalist tremors and it’s entirely possible they’re about to miss another one.

Fillongate Four Ways (Penelopegate, Loangate, Suitgate, Nosegate): Right Message, Wrong Time

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

French presidential candidate Francois Fillon is largely correct about things that need to be done to heal France. However, his message is lost in Penelopegate, Loangate, Suitgate, and Nosegate.

Please consider François Fillon’s Taste in Bespoke Suits Draws Criticism.

The embattled French presidential hopeful on Monday promised to deliver a “shock treatment” of austerity and deregulation if elected, sticking to a free-market economic platform that has evoked comparisons with Margaret Thatcher.

But Mr. Fillon’s expensive taste in suits has become the latest problem for his presidential campaign, which has been sent off-course by allegations that have cast doubt over his ethics.

Drawing attention to potential conflicts of interest, the Journal du Dimanche newspaper revealed on Sunday that an unnamed friend of the candidate had written a €13,000 cheque last month “at Mr. Fillon’s request” to buy him two bespoke suits from a boutique in Paris’s expensive Saint-Germain-des-Prés neighborhood.

On Wednesday he is expected to be placed under formal investigation — one step short of being charged — over suspicion of misusing more than €880,000 in state funds to employ his wife Penelope and children in fake jobs as aides.

On Monday he detailed economic measures that focused on curbing the state’s role to try and jolt the eurozone’s second-largest economy into quicker growth.

Largely sticking to the program he had outlined during his primary campaign, Mr. Fillon promised to cut half a million civil service jobs, save €100bn in annual public spending over five years, eliminate the 35-hour limit on the working week and grant companies €40bn in tax breaks.

“The French have had enough of constantly being screwed around by the state,” Mr. Fillon told Europe 1 radio, using the kind of frank language that helped him to win November’s primary.

But the former prime minister, with four decades in politics, is struggling to divert attention from allegations of conflicts of interest. As well as the probe into his family’s jobs, questions have emerged over the financial help provided to Mr. Fillon by Marc Ladreit de Lacharrière, a billionaire entrepreneur who lent him €50,000 and employed Ms. Fillon as a literary adviser.

The latest revelations followed public outrage at the publication by the Republican party of a caricature of Emmanuel Macron, the new presidential favorite, with a hooked nose and a top hat that mirrored 1930s anti-Semitic propaganda. On Sunday Mr. Fillon apologized for the drawing and promised action against those involved.

Austerity Message Cannot Be Heard

1. When you preach austerity, do you want to be seen in €13,000 suits?


2. When you preach austerity, do you want to be under fraud investigation for paying your wife and kids €880,000 out of public money, for doing nothing?


3. When you preach austerity, do you want to be under investigation for taking illegal loans?


4. When doing points 1-3 above, how does it come across when you want to fire 500,000 civil service workers?

Adding fat to the fire, Fillon’s party posted an extremely unwise  anti-Semitic picture of his opponent.

Right Message, Wrong Time, Exceptionally Poor Delivery

Fillon is of course correct about reducing the size of government and the burden on French businesses.

But his program would be a tough sell in socialistic France, even in the best of circumstances.

That is why I said Marine le Pen would have beaten Fillon.

Can le Pen beat Emmanuel Macron? I think she can, that is not to say she will.

Despite Arrest Of Top Advisor And Bodyguard, New Poll Shows Le Pen Is Mightier Than Les Globalists

French authorities have made yet another monumental error in judgment after arresting Marine Le Pen"s chief of staff and bodyguard for questioning over alleged misuse of public funds to pay parliamentary assistants - the equivalent of a jaywalking ticket in terms of public opinion. By making le mountain out of le molehill, this latest debacle by French authorities is the most recent in a long list of backfired attempts to delegitimize the National Front candidate - including the refusal of French banks to lend money to Le Pen"s campaign, and the MSM"s ongoing hit-jobs (calling Le Pen "far-right" and "extreme" on a regular basis, for example).

These tactics seem to be working about as well as they did with Trump. Keep it up French establishment - you"ve effectively solidified Le Pen"s underdog status. In case you hadn"t noticed, your country is being burned to the ground by foreign invaders as France becomes one giant no-go zone. Instead of addressing the problem, you"ve doubled down on multiculturalism by continuing to welcome a hoard of migrants - 70% of which are "men of fighting age." 

Coincidentally, the latest French election poll has Le Pen ahead...

With her promise to return france to Economic sovereignty, it goes without saying that if Le Pen is elected in May, the European Union will be living on borrowed time. Frexit will happen and the ECB backstop will dissolve - considering Germany and France are it"s largest contributors. Italy"s solvency is #FakeNews with it"s 133% debt/gdp ratio, and the rest of the PIIGS are vulnerable to the big bad wolf of defaults. I wonder if Italy"s recent legislation of "extraordinary and temporary state support" of their largest bank was a canary in the coal mine of ECB death? The fact that Germany is pissed about it may be a clue.

What then? Euro hyperinflation as confidence erodes, or a Euro split to try and avoid it? A reversion to individual currencies as the entire EU experiment fails? The Netherlands is already considering dumping the at-risk currency. If any of these scenarios start to pan out, scared money will undoubtedly flock to the usual suspects; US Treasuries and other "safe" sovereign bonds, Dollars, precious metals, US real estate, and other safe havens. I"m sure you"ve been missing a little volatility in your life, right? 

Of course, the doom trade is never that simple, and most everyone got the Trump trade wrong. I"m sure the EU will find a way to cover up the carnage and pretend everything is fine, and we"ll see Dow 30K before any of that happens - so keep partying until the music stops, but don"t get caught without a chair (my most stupidest analogy to date).

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com * Follow on Twitter @ZeroPointNow

This Is What Lies In Store For France

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

Market dislocations occur when financial markets, operating under stressful conditions, experience large widespread asset mispricing.

Welcome to this week’s edition of “World Out Of Whack” where every Wednesday we take time out of our day to laugh, poke fun at and present to you absurdity in global financial markets in all its glorious insanity.

While we enjoy a good laugh, the truth is that the first step to protecting ourselves from losses is to protect ourselves from ignorance. Think of the “World Out Of Whack” as your double thick armour plated side impact protection system in a financial world littered with drunk drivers.

Selfishly we also know that the biggest (and often the fastest) returns come from asymmetric market moves. But, in order to identify these moves we must first identify where they live.

Occasionally we find opportunities where we can buy (or sell) assets for mere cents on the dollar – because, after all, we are capitalists.

Join our Insider membership and find out what we"re doing with our own money... targeting asymmetric investment opportunities

In this week"s edition of the WOW: Le Pen. But then what?

On the 7th May France will have a new political party complete with a shiny new President and then everything will get better, right? Why don"t we take a look. But first...

The bond market is finally waking up to what I outlined some 7 months ago in 7 steps to the easiest short in recent history.

A couple of snippets as a reminder...

With respect to the rise of the right:

"Those who state the obvious gain ground not because they’re smarter, necessarily have better ideas, or are virtuous, but because they bring to the attention what citizens can see with their own eyes."

And as I write this to you now we have this:

Another wee snippet from that same article from last year - on how the voting masses will be swayed:

"When Le Pen is elected to power in France next year it will be the European Union she blames for the daily murder, mayhem, and chaos erupting in France’s previously quiet and quant neighbourhoods. It will be the European Union she blames for the loss of French culture. And so, rallying a frightened populace desperate to retain what’s left of their culture will be easy as pie."

And so while the media retain a near complete blackout of the daily mayhem sweeping Paris" previously genteel streets, the MSM are simply making themselves increasingly irrelevant. Sources of mine in Paris tell me the rioting has been going on for a week solid and yet the media coverage has been scant. Parisians themselves can"t understand it and with it their trust in the status quo erodes.

Except perhaps for octogenarians the average Joe (or Pierre) increasingly source their news via social media channels and alternative media sources. Chairman Trump understood this trend and played to its advantages by completely circumventing traditional media channels and delivering his message via alternative media. The ROI was epic. The elites are still scratching their heads, wondering how the hell it all happened. Bless them.

The more the MSM refuse to report on the issues which Parisians see when they step out of their door or that they hear about when they receive that call from Aunt Sofie telling them that her neighbourhood looks like Mogadishu, the more they lean right.

When trust is lost, it"s over. The existing kleptocrats in Brussels are so far behind the zeitgeist curve that pulling this one back is going to take the kind of fancy footwork that would put Maradona to shame. The odds look increasingly dismal that they"ll be able to do so.

Scenes such as this play directly into the hands of madame Marine Le Pen.

If you doubt that she"s going to win then you"ve not been paying attention. This isn"t solely a French issue. It is the rise of the strong men.

We can see that the bond market is coming to terms with these realities.

So the bond market is beginning (finally) to price in a Le Pen victory, complete with all the promises she"s making on the campaign trail, not least of which is exiting the Eurozone and exiting the euro.

And so capital is shifting into German bunds and out of French bonds. Fine but before you think this is a trade to jump into I"d suggest considering timeframes.

Let me remind you that Germany kicks Merkel to touch on the 24th September, a mere 5 months after the French elections. Pray tell what the holders of German bunds do in 5 months time? Incidentally, 2-year yields have just collapsed to -0.87% on a shortage of bunds. Isn"t this exciting?

It"s as if Germany doesn"t have the same set of problems France has. Think it through.

Ultimately there"s one home for this capital folks and it isn"t in Europe.

Moving Backwards Forward... the French Plan

Anyway, today let"s take a look at what life with madame Le Pen at the helm of Europe"s 3rd largest economy could look like.

Le Pen"s secretive economic plan was recently unveiled for all to laugh at see. I"m not sure why it was so secretive. There"s nothing particularly "new" in the plan that hasn"t been tried before. Clearly Le Pen and her economic advisors have been vacationing with Robert Mugabe and Nicolas Maduro.

Bloomberg ran this article listing the initiatives.

Let me summarise them for you.

A fustercluck of state interventionism, which will absolutely 110% require money printing - like the Italians used to before the Euro. God bless those times. Didn"t we all love a good devaluation making those Mediterranean holidays so much more enjoyable? Well, it looks like the French Riviera is soon going to be on sale. Give it a couple of years.

What else?

• Eliminating the central bank"s independence. Because we know state control is always better. She"ll need this actually in order to print all the francs needed to employ all the government workers she plans on hiring. I can"t wait to see how this works out.


• Nationalisation of "strategic sectors". Because this has proved to produce the economic miracles of Venezuela, Cuba, and dozens of African nations. You know, the ones where kids all have flies on their faces.


• Free enterprise and capitalism are to be lined up and summarily executed.


• Shareholder rights obliterated (this doozy is couched in a bill to "protect" French firms from "vulture funds" and takeovers.) Watch and see the capital scurrying away from this unholy concoction of insanity. Wait for it, it"s coming.


• Lowering the cost of credit for French families and businesses. She doesn"t say how this is to take place but I assure you with her other policies in place we"ve got better odds on Australia sinking.


• Eliminating all trade deals in existence. Not renegotiating, just eliminating. No, seriously.

There are a dozen other initiatives each of them more scary than Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction. Funniest of all, though, has to be "intelligent protectionism", an oxymoron if ever there was one.

Here"s What"s Going to Happen

France, already wildly uncompetitive, will become more so. How can it not?

Exiting the euro is going to involve a divorce from hell. There is no easy way to do this folks.

Capital controls will have to be implemented. In the hype and hope of a "new France" the hoi polloi will probably go for it, realising too late what has happened as their savings are vaporised in favour of the state.

Make no mistake: Le Pen isn"t about "the people" but about "the French state". The difference couldn"t be more dramatic.

The cost of capital will soar as free market mechanisms are constricted.

This will be a disaster for France, a country with private debt levels of 229% of GDP. A significantly weaker franc won"t do much good as the public sector will crowd out the private and access to capital and credit will decline faster than the newly issued franc is declining, which is probably saying something.

The idea that an already bureaucratic socialist, interventionist, and increasingly unproductive system needs more, not less interventionism, needs more state control not less, needs more money printing, not less, could only be dreamt up by complete morons. Sadly, that is what lies in store.

This has all happened before folks. Go read your history books. A 5-year old can tell you that in order to bake a cake you put in certain ingredients and you come out with a tasty cake.

Le Pen"s ingredients are going to bake an economic disaster. France is going to be like Argentina under Kirchner without the good steaks and the collagen enhanced lips.

The Question is...

Cast your vote here and also see what others think

- Chris

PS: I"m going to offer something special today.

I"ve got my own thoughts on how best to play this over the coming months and years but if someone provides me with an excellent asymmetric idea which upon researching I use, I"ll give them a complimentary subscription to Insider. And if an existing member provides it, I"ll grant a free renewal. After all, we"re all in this to profit, despite what the likes of Le Pen decide to do.

"The FN has absolutely no chance of winning power. Its score in the second round will hover around 30 percent, perhaps 35 per cent - not more" — Patrick Buisson, ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy"s former key adviser

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