The confetti were still littering Paris from Macron"s celebration event on Sunday night when the 39-year-old Frenchman became the youngest president in French history, and already he met with one of the biggest challenges facing his new administration: a population, mostly among the local labor unions, that is unwilling to accept any if not all of the proposed economic reforms, and made this abundantly clear on Monday by clashing in violent protests across Paris with the local riot police.
That"s not the only reason why Emmanuel Macron may find the hangover of his bitter fight with Marine Le Pen unpleasant. As The Local writes, while Macron"s supporters were jumping for joy at the Louvre and commentators all over the world were hailing Emmanuel Macron"s victory as a triumph for liberal and centrist values, a majority of French people won"t have seen it as a cause for celebration. And although Macron should be relieved, there are a few major reasons why he should stay off the Champagne this week.
Below, according to the French publication, are eight reasons why Macron has little reason for celebration as he prepares to replace Francois Hollande as the next French president.
1. He didn"t win over the majority of French people
In the second round, 56 percent of French people either abstained, cast a blank vote or voted for Le Pen. He may have won a majority of the vote, but that doesn"t make for a majority of French people. Even in first round vote, when French people "vote with their hearts" and choose the candidate they really want, Macron didn"t do spectacularly.
On April 23rd some 8.6 million people voted for Macron, out of a possible 47 million, so in reality, you could argue that only a 6th of French voters would have Macron as their first choice. But even in the first round he benefited from tactical voting.
The scores registered for Macron, Le Pen and for abstention in the second round of the French presidential election pic.twitter.com/9BCaamP5qR
2. Many of those who voted for him aren"t really behind him
Of those who did vote for him, many said were doing so simply because he wasn"t Marine Le Pen. Some 33 percent of respondents in an Ipsos poll said they voted Macron because they were won over by the political renewal they saw in him. Sixteen percent put his policies top of the list, while 8 percent said his personality was the main reason they voted for him.
However the largest chunk, 43 percent, said they were mostly voting against Le Pen.
3. Le Pen is on the move too
The far right scored a record number of votes in the first round (7.6 million) and then went and did it again in the second round, topping the 10 million mark (10.6 million to be precise). The far right are on an upward trajectory and Le Pen is hinting at a new rebranding and strategy in her post-results speech. To be fair to Macron he recognized this fact in his victory speech and vowed do everything to stop people voting for extremes. Easier said than done in a divided France suffering from unemployment.
4. En Marche! will have a hard time getting a majority
Macron will face a host of difficulties trying to gain a majority of seats in the parliamentary elections with such a newly created party. Without that he"ll have a hard time passing the laws he wants. The Republicans are gearing up to try and gain a majority in parliament, in which case Macron would be reduced to not much more than a figurehead of France"s government.
Even if En Marche! ends up the leading party, finding another group to ally with to pass reforms will be a tough task. Macron"s MP"s will face four clear blocks of opposition from Jean-Luc Melenchon"s "Unbowed" to whatever is left of the Socialist Party come June, to the Republicans and Marine Le Pen"s far right National Front.
That"s unprecedented in French politics. And on top of that, En Marche is under-financed and unlike the long established parties, it doesn"t have a long-standing coffer to dip into.
5. Parts of the country rejected him
Le Pen"s strongholds in the north east held firm, gaining 57.42 percent of the vote in Calais and 61 percent in Hénin-Beaumont. In the Aisne department, Le Pen came out on top in 619 out of 804 communes. Le Pen scored well on France"s Mediterranean coast in the south east, getting close to 50 percent in many departments, like the Var, where she gained 49 percent.
6. He could be doomed to follow in Francois Hollande"s footsteps
Macron has a lot on his shoulders, knowing that if he fails to get results on issues like unemployment during his five years he could see the same fate as Hollande, who was so unpopular in France he became the first French president not stand for a second term. Many French people already see too much of a similarity between Macron and his predecessor. Le Pen dubbed him "Hollande"s baby" or "Hollande"s heir".
Fail to deal with unemployment and he will end up having more in common with his predecessor than he would have wished.
7. Unions are already on his back
Worker"s unions in France aren"t about to let Macron forget the huge opposition against him, despite the win. Already there have been protests, with a demonstration against the election held at la Republique in Paris on Monday organised by Front Sociale, a collective of worker"s unions and associations.
The CGT"s Michael Wamen said: “He is no an elected president, he is like a president-CEO.”
If Macron wants to reform labour laws - and he said he will do by decree - then he can expect more uprisings in the months and years to come.
8. His to do list
Has an incoming president ever had so much on his to-do list from day one? Macron must try to reconcile the country, cut unemployment, restore faith in Europe, even reform the EU, boost the economy, deal with the terror threat and dangerous jihadists returning from the Middle East, find a way for France to be ease with Islam and immigration, help forge a new identity for the country so it feels at ease with its place in the world
While French pollsters and poli-pundits are prohibited from providing "hot-takes" or preliminary exit-polls ahead of the closing of polls at 8pm local time, the Belgian press is not similarly constrained, and according to L"Echo, citing early exit polls, Macron would win the vote with between 63% and 64% of the vote, while empty ballots would represents about 10%.
The Belgian newspaper adds that, as noted earlier, according to figures from the Ministry of the Interior, the participation rate in metropolitan France at 5pm amounted to 65.30%, the lowest participation rate in decades. It also adds that the abstention rate in today"s vote is expected to reach 25% to 27% on the day.
Still, as the Telegraph cautions, while it was thought that Mr Macron could build a larger voting base than Ms Le Pen - as he was expected to mop up votes in the second round from those who support mainstream Right and Left candidates in the first - it appeared last night that a large number of supporters for the conservative, Francois Fillon, and the far-Left Jean-Luc Melenchon stayed home on election day. And a vast number chose to spoil their ballots or abstain at the polls - as many as 29% of voters, according to one estimate.
Furthermore, take such early forecasts with a grain of salt. As Bloomberg"s European analyst Maxime Sbaihi writes, "French authorities" warning: no "reliable" estimate can be made before 7.45pm. Don"t trust what you see before that."
Some other highlights: a timelapse clip showing a Paris polling station:
The Telegraph also reports that Libération newspaper says it is boycotting the electoral events of Marine Le Pen this evening - whether she wins or loses - in solidarity with other French and foreign media outlets who have been refused access to them.
The left-wing daily says it will not carry any coverage of the events, during which Ms Le Pen is due to make a speech after the election results are announced, because the Front National has refused access to the gathering in a park in the east of Paris tonight to about a dozen media organisations. "These anti-democratic measures, which are also contrary to the right to keep the public informed, must stop, as must the intimidation of journalists in (Le Pen) political rallies," wrote senior Libération editor Johan Hufnagel.
Results show the two candidates combined only got 45% of the vote in the first round. Apathy and distrust are strong.
Political Ambush
On Wednesday, April 27, Macron met with striking Whirlpool workers at a planned event in Amiens, Macron’s hometown. In a surprise political ambush, Le Pen showed up first and was greeted with cheers and selfie opportunities.
Macron Faces Hostile Crowd
The most recent poll show Macron falling below 60%. There may be more fallout from the ambush coming up. Even if one believes that support for Le Pen is a bit understated, picking up another 7-9% is a tough act to expect.
Close the Gap? How?
It’s possible Le Pen closes the gap, in a roundabout way: abstentions. Eurointelligence explains.
The researcher Serge Galam confirms what we suspected all along: it does not take much for Marine Le Pen to win if voters abstain. Galam looked into what it takes for her to win under different abstention scenarios. He starts with the vote intentions as suggested by the polls, 42% for Le Pen and 58% for Emmanuel Macron. Then, if 90% of the FN voters go to vote but only 65% of those for Macron, Le Pen would end up winning with 50.07%. For Macron the threshold to win is thus 65.17%. This threshold is even higher the closer the two get in the polls. Assuming Le Pen wins two points in the polls and gets 44% of voters intentions, then the threshold for Macron would be 70.71%. So for 2 extra points in the voters intentions for Le Pen the barrier for Macron to win rises by 5 percentage points. We know that the voters behind Le Pen are much more loyal and steadfast than the votes for Macron. Many backed Macron unenthusiastically to block Le Pen. Since the first round, there is a clear rise in aversion against Macron. The absence of a clear backing from Mélenchon and the hashtag #SansMoiLe7Mai on twitter give solidarity to those who consider abstaining, Le Figaro explains. Students from schools and universities mobilized yesterday for a ni-ni: a no to Le Pen and her nationalism, and a no to Macron as a “boss”.
Ni-Ni Mobilized, SansMoiLe7Mai
A ni-ni is “neither nor”.SansMoiLe7Mai translates as “Without Me May 7”.
Abstentions
An amazing 71-80% of those who supported Benoît Hamon are for Macron, with as low as 1% for Le Pen. But Hamon only received 6.36% of the vote in round one.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon received 19.58% of the vote while François Fillon received 20.01%. Those are the votes that will matter most. It is difficult to judge the likelihood of that combined 39.58% block of disenfranchised voters does indeed vote in round two.
Looking at the first set of polls at the top, somewhere between 17% and 29% of the electorate plans to abstain. The average of 22%, 29%, and 17% is 22.67%. Those abstainers are already factored into the 59-41% poll estimate for May 7.
Voting Intention Averages
On average, 39.33% of Mélenchon supporters claim they will abstain. 39.33% of 19.58% is 7.66%.
On average, 30.67% of Fillon supporters claim they will abstain. 30.67% of 20.01% is 6.14%.
On average, 24.33% of Hamon supporters claim they will abstain. 24.33% of 6.36% is 1.55%.
Curiously, the combined abstainers from the Mélenchon plus Fillon plus Hamon camp is only 15.35% whereas the average overall abstention percentage is 22.67%.
That margin says suggests there is an extra pool of voters who intend to sit this out. Assuming Le Pen supporters are more enthusiastic, the extra block of abstainers must come primarily from those who voted for Macron but now intend to sit it out.
Determining Questions
Will enough weak Macron supporters turn up to vote?
Will the “ni-ni” campaign have an impact that does not show up in the polls?
Is there a pool of Le Pen supporters who simply do not tell pollsters their intention?
Will Macron’s Whirlpool gaffe be a factor?
To win, Le Pen needs to capitalize on Macron’s gaffe. She also needs low turnout and a ni-ni impact that affects Macron more than it does her.
This is an uphill battle, but possible, and more likely than most expect.
The nightmare of nightmares of the globalist elites and France’s political establishment has been avoided: as the polls had indicated, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are moving on to the run-off election; Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s late surge in popularity did not suffice to make him a contender – it did however push the established Socialist Party deeper into the dustbin of history. That was very Trotskyist of him (we can already picture a future Weekly World News headline: “French socialists discover giant alien dust mites”).
Lateral entrants to the business of avenging the disinherited, leavened by strawberry cake.
Around three micro-seconds after the election results became known, the entire French and European political elite immediately announced its undying support of Emmanuel Macron, with only a handful of “populist” parties outside of France saying that they were rooting for Marine Le Pen.
Just to clear this up beforehand, Ms. Le Pen may be the terror of the establishment, but she is just as statist as her competition was and is – in some respects probably more so. The run-off election is between two central planners (or at least “third way” proponents), each one of whom believes to be in possession of the “better plan”.
First round election results: the distribution of support between Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Macron reminds us a bit of the 2010 election map of Ukraine, which showed a similar East/ West split (see “Mapping the Conflict in Ukraine” for more details on this). Amazingly, Hamon didn’t even win a single department – click to enlarge.
There is no political constituency for liberty or anything remotely resembling classical liberalism (= libertarianism) in France. Moreover, in view of Mr. Trump’s recent magical transformation from putative swamp-draining rebel to slightly confused neo-con (who urgently needs a compass), it is clearly time to once again focus on the only thing that one can actually hope for in politicians, and that is entertainment value; luckily we have good news on that front.
Given unanimous establishment support for Macron, it was apparently concluded that the 2nd round voting ritual will be a mere formality, a kind of rubber-stamping exercise for the Brussels-approved candidate. Just to be safe, the French bureaucracy nevertheless mailed two ballot papers each instead of one to several hundred thousand Frenchmen living abroad so they will be able to vote twice.
That should produce a small haul of fraudulent votes for Macron, as it was decided to simply let the matter rest. Action will only be taken if fraudulent voting attempts are “detected” after the fact, which sounds like a difficult thing to do without Batman (in view of Le Pen’s anti-EU stance, most Frenchmen living elsewhere in the EU are bound to vote against her for personal reasons).
Second-round voting intentions, from the department of reasonable assumptions: after Geert Wilders “lost” the election in the Netherlands by enlarging the presence of his party in parliament by 33%, the conviction that Mr. Macron will deliver a Hillary Clinton-type landslide victory has solidified (“it doesn’t matter if the probability is 91%, 95% or 99%” – only climate science dazzles with more exactitude and prescience!). Admittedly, the recent French polls are probably more accurate than the US polls were, but we will still spend most of this post explaining why an upset could happen anyway – click to enlarge.
Confidence that the Brexit and Trump polling failures were non-repeatable one—off events seems indeed quite strong, judging from the party that was thrown in stock markets around the world. Even the sickly looking euro regained its footing.
To this we would point out the following: for a variety of unrelated reasons the euro was ripe for a rally regardless of the outcome of the first round election. Moreover, it simply doesn’t matter what the candidates say they want to do about the euro – not one of them is likely to abandon it.
Without a parliamentary majority it isn’t even possible for a French president to call a referendum on EU membership or the euro, as it would touch on a constitutional issue. We bet that would be just fine with Ms. Le Pen, since going back to the French franc would entail headaches any politician will want to avoid – unless a major crisis forces his or her hand (note: the FN has currently just 2 out of 577 seats in the National Assembly and Macron’s new party has so far not yet taken part in an election).
Buying already overbought and overvalued stocks is a different kettle of fish though – although the relief rally was not really unexpected, it still looks like mindless herding behavior. It makes about as much sense as buying gold due to rising geopolitical tensions, i.e., not much.
French stocks take off, as does the euro. The latter makes sense, the former doesn’t really – click to enlarge.
Money supply growth rates are currently slowing in every major currency area except China. M1 growth was recently still fairly high in the euro zone in absolute terms, but the ECB is beginning to “taper” QE as of this month, so a further slowdown is quite likely.
Narrow euro area money supply aggregate M1 (~equivalent to TMS) – the y/y growth rate has slowed from a high of ~14.5% to ~8.5%, with a further slowdown likely. That is usually not the best time to buy stocks, especially if they have already rallied for a while. Obviously, a Macron victory isn’t going to persuade the ECB to print more money – click to enlarge.
Rise of the Deplorables
The default assumption should be that Macron will indeed win the second round, but he does have some problems that may be masked in the polls by the “Bradley effect”. One advantage of Ms. Le Pen that reminds us a bit of Donald Trump’s campaign is that her voters seem more engaged and less likely to switch sides. The same cannot be said of Macron’s supporters.
Not only Macron’s supporters are less sure of their choice than Le Pen’s: note how fickle Hamon’s voters are. How certain is it that only 3% of them will vote for Le Pen vs. 70% for Macron? What they are telling an interviewer may not really be indicative of where they will put their cross in the contemplative quietude of the voting booth – click to enlarge.
In recent years security, immigration and terrorism have become increasingly important issues. It is fair to say that a great many French voters have by now migrated closer to Le Pen’s views on these topics (so to speak), in spite of the fact that the population of France once was one of the most tolerant in Europe.
After its election results fell intermittently to a low point from 2006 to 2008, support for Marine Le Pen’s Front National has grown noticeably. There seem to be more deplorables in France than previously suspected – click to enlarge.
That has changed significantly after the big surge in terror attacks over the past year (here is a list of French voter priorities posted by Mish in February; security and terrorism are sharing third place with purchasing power, right after jobs and government handouts). It should be no surprise that the Front National has become a bit of a fan favorite in recent years.
Last week’s terror attack in Paris elicited a comment by Macron that was faintly reminiscent of Marie Antoinette’s idea about people lacking bread. In an editorial for the Guardian he essentially told people to “get used to it”. That may simply have been a realistic assessment, or a less than ideal way of putting it. Still, when emotions are sufficiently stirred up, it may be taken as a sign that he won’t do much about it. That is quite different from Le Pen’s activist attitude.
Le Pen doesn’t seem to consider the problem “imponderable” – she would simply close the borders to immigrants from Isistan. Once upon a time this stance was widely decried as racist, but France has been on the receiving end of numerous terror attacks and many people’s attitudes have changed accordingly.
This doesn’t look like something one would want to get used to.
Macron: Hidden Entertainment Value
It may in this case be to Macron’s advantage that he frequently dispenses fascinating outbursts of verbiage that seem deserving of being entered into an incomprehensibility competition. He sounds at times as if he has a built-in postmodernism generator, or as if his speech hasn’t been decrypted just yet. People may therefore not be worried too much about what he says, since it is always possible that he has switched to philosophical bon-mot mode, and that stuff is generally beyond the ken of mere mortals.
It is incidentally also the good news we alluded to above, in the sense of entertainment to look forward to. We were previously fairly certain that only Marine Le Pen and perhaps the French Hugo Chavez would be able to deliver a satisfactory performance entertainment-wise. It turns out they have company.
After taking a closer look at Macron’s antics, we realized we had overlooked an incredibly gifted artiste. Because of this exciting discovery we can now look forward to the election with complete equanimity – any outcome will do. Here are a few remarks by other observers and critics commenting on his rare talent:
François Baroin: “He says nothing about nothing, and probably doesn’t think much more than that about it either.”
Unknown (to us, anyway) observer: “That is to say, a little elusive… it sounded hollow, in my opinion”
Another unknown observer (faintly reminiscent of Sherlock Holmes): “It is the most brilliant encryption system in history.”
Desperate woman standing in a fog bank: “I don’t understand… I don’t understand a word.”
Yet another anonymous observer: “This surpasses everything I could imagine.”
Marine Le Pen, speaking to Macron in a debate: “You have an insane talent, you end up speaking for seven minutes, I cannot even summarize your train of thought, you have said nothing, it is like the absolute void between the stars.”
What is it that so excites and at times perplexes his fans? We give you a few examples below (and will provide proof that he really said those things):
Macron at a feminism conference: “The identity is “A” equals “A”. There exist at least “A’s” and “B’s”. I didn’t want that “A” equals “B”.”
Macron during an interview: “You don’t want to live in a box, do you? I don’t. And so, our life always happens “at the same time”, it is more complex than what we want to reduce it to.”
Macron writing in “Le Journal du Dimanche”: “I have always accepted the vertical dimension, the transcendence, but at the same time, it has to be fully anchored in the immanent, in the material.”
Macron delivering a speech: “I, my life, my memories, they are made of childhood memories of my grandmother and that professor of philosophy, whom I have never seen… and yet, I have the feeling I know his face.”
Another Macron interview: “What constitutes the French spirit is a constant aspiration to the universal, that is, this tension between what has been and the part of identity… this strict ipseity, and the aspiration to a universal, that is to say, that which escapes us.” [ed. note: “ipseity” = “selfhood” – a term to be found – no kidding – in the “Dictionary of Untranslatables”; apparently French deconstructionist philosopher Jaques Derrida used the term ‘ipséité’ frequently in his writings. We incidentally also have to thank Derrida for books like “Specters of Marx” and sayings like “To pretend, I actually do the thing: I have therefore only pretended to pretend. And lastly, from another interview comes what we would at this stage call Macron’s piece de résistance… something for true connoisseurs, the high point – so to speak the Mount Everest of his pseudo-philosophizing and improbable reasoning. Just a few sentences of oddly poetic nonsense, declaimed with such moving sincerity one sits spellbound as the magniloquent imagery unfolds – until either the last sentence, or… We made the terrible mistake of watching the facial expression of the TV presenter, who listened to it live when it premiered and managed to preserve a deadpan, slightly bemused expression throughout, with a degree of self-control worthy of a Shaolin warrior monk. We probably sprained something in the process (the septum transversum? If Macron were in the US, we could sue him now). So here goes, Macron has the word:
“We all have our roots. And because we are all deeply rooted, there are trees next to us… there are rivers, there are fish… There are brothers and sisters…”
Stunning. We have in the meantime found out there is more… the man is a veritable fount of memorable quotes. Here is a video that shows him actually saying all of the above (in French, which somehow makes it even funnier):
The reincarnation of Socrates… or someone like him. Sort of.
What If?
We have to briefly consider what happens if the bête noire Marine Le Pen – unlikely as it seems – manages to pull a Trumpian upset. When Donald Trump won, the big surprise was that risk assets only went down for about an hour and immediately commenced to rally, a state they have been in every since. We don’t believe situation in France is going to be similar, if a surprise victory is achieved by the apparently greatly feared populist candidate.
The reason is mainly that market participants have decided to celebrate already. Prior to the US election, a mild undercurrent of “he might just pull it off” was always detectable. Also, the markets were a bit nervous, with volatility premiums high until D-day and the market weakening somewhat into election day.
This more recent flipping of the switch from semi-sobriety to full-on party mode is almost disrespectful by comparison. Anyway, it also tells us that the election outcome is widely regarded as predetermined and anything else is therefore going to upset the markets to varying degrees (in the short term).
She looks like she’s about to take off… can she actually fly? Her first round result was the best the FN has achieved in its history (see insert). Oh, and she’s wagging two fingers at once, for extra-emphasis. Finger-wagging by politicians is usually not a good sign, since it is most often employed when talk turns to perfectly harmless voluntary activities that the speaker wants to make illegal or regulate into near-death type catatonic compliance.
Conclusion
This is probably the last time we will write about the French election, unless the unlikely happens somehow. As we said though, that is a possibility that shouldn’t be dismissed. Other than that, we just hope that Macron continues with his creative impromptu wordsmith career.
* * *
Bonus Chart: Long Term Approval Bear Market
French presidents seem to have impressed their subjects less and less as time has gone on. Mr. Hollande saw his approval rating tumble to levels so low they were previously unimaginable; he didn’t even try for a second term as a result. To add insult to injury, at the time his approval rating hit its low it amounted exactly to 100 minus Putin’s approval rating. Wining the French presidency is evidently easier and more fun than actually governing.
As a final aside: five of seven post WW2 French presidents of France were “conservatives” – and yet, France is by many measures one of the most socialistic countries in the EU today, with government spending amounting to a breath-taking 58% of GDP (no wonder they are liked less and less).
The people increasingly disapprove… – click to enlarge.
The rise of French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has made a lot of people nervous since, among many other things, she’s in favor of leaving the eurozone, which would pretty much end the common currency. But since polling has shown her making the two-person run-off round but then losing to a mainstream candidate, the euro-elites haven’t seen any reason to panic.
Here, for instance, is a chart based on February polling that shows Le Pen getting the most votes in the first round, but then – when mainstream voters coalesce around her opponent – losing by around 60% – 40%. The establishment gets a bit of a scare but remains firmly in power, no harm no foul.
Then came the past month’s debates in which a previously-overlooked communist candidate named Jean-Luc Mélenchon shook up the major candidates by pointing out how corrupt they all are. Voters liked what they heard and a significant number of them shifted his way.
(France 24) – In a presidential campaign with more twists than a French braid, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s sudden play to become France’s third man — or better — is shaking up the race.
With ten days to go before April 23’s first round vote, the colourful, cultured and cantankerous far-leftist has the frontrunners on the defensive.
Suddenly, the grumpy far-leftist — a showman in a Chairman Mao jacket who openly admired late Venezuelan populist leader Hugo Chavez — holds the mantle of France’s most popular politician. In the course of a whirlwind month, the 65-year-old Mélenchon surged nine spots to number one in weekly glossy Paris Match’s opinion poll. A full 68 percent of those surveyed hold “favourable opinions” of the far-left candidate, the poll by the Ifop-Fiducial firm showed.
On some polls, Mélenchon has now bypassed embattled conservative François Fillon for third place in a presidential race that will see the top two advance to the May 7 run-off.
An Ipsos poll on Tuesday put Mélenchon a half-point ahead of Fillon for third place in the race, behind National Front leader Marine Le Pen and the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron. With 18.5 percent, the far-leftist has gleaned 4.5 percent in just two weeks, with Macron and Le Pen tied on 24 percent.
Mélenchon wants to quit NATO, the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and block European trade treaties with the United States and Canada. He promises a French referendum on whether to stick with the reworked EU he is pledging to negotiate or leave the bloc altogether.
Here’s a chart from the Washington Post showing just how tight the race for the run-off spots has become:
It’s still unlikely that both Le Pen and Mélenchon will make the run-off, but based on the above chart it’s suddenly possible. This would be the cultural equivalent of a Trump – Bernie Sanders race in the US, but with – believe it or not — even higher stakes because both Le Pen and Mélenchon would threaten the existence of both the euro and the European Union, the world’s biggest economic entity.
So it almost doesn’t matter who wins that run-off. Just the prospect of having one or the other in charge would tank the euro and set off a stampede out of Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds, possibly doing irreparable damage to the eurozone before the eventual winner even takes power.
To repeat the theme of this series, when you screw up a country’s finances you take its politics along for the ride.
In France, the right feels betrayed by open borders and excessive regulation,
the left by an unaccountable elite that always seems to profit at everyone else’s expense.
And both sides suffer from soaring debt at every level of society.
So if a fringe candidate doesn’t win this time around, the mainstream will just make an even bigger mess, raising the odds of a fringe victory next a few years hence.
Despite leading in the polls for Round One, The Express reports that a monumental computer blunder could cost Marine Le Pen the French general election as 500,000 citizens living outside of France have the chance to vote twice.
The election has become extremely close with just 4.5 percentage points separating Macron, Fillon, Mélenchon, and Le Pen...
Which is why this shocking error in election procedures could be the swing to crush Le Pen"s hopes. As The Express reports, half a million people received duplicate polling cards in the post, which would allow them to cast two votes at the first round of the election, held on April 23.
French authorities confirmed they would not be investigating the potential electoral fraud until AFTER the election, when retrospective prosecution may take place.
We are sure this is a simple "accident", but coincidentally (for the establishment), this could crush Ms Le Pen’s dreams of surging to power, as most French nationals living outside of their country are not right wing - demonstrated by the fact many feel they depend on the European Union (EU) to guarantee their stay in foreign countries. Far left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who has surged in the polls recently and threatens to break into the leadership race against Ms Le Pen and Mr Macron, could also benefit from this catastrophic error.
As one French citizen noted:
“This year, this is the first time I have asked myself the question, would I take advantage of this anomaly to vote twice? My candidate was low enough in the polls.”
Voting twice is a crime, but police will only find out if they run a check on the individual through their computer systems.
France’s Interior Ministry has said it will not be invalidating the election because of the duplicate voting glitch.
Germany"s finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble did everything in his power to infuriate three distinct groups of people today.
First, in a statement that may infuriate several million German immigrants, Schaeuble said that Muslims who migrate to Europe should understand that there are better places for them to live if they do not want to accept the European way of life.
Such migrants who do not accept Europe"s way of living should be told "you have made the wrong decision", Schaeuble said during a round table discussion in Berlin. "There are better places in the world to live under Islamic law than Europe," he added. It was not clear if he was envisioning the US as one of the fallback plans for the millions of migrants Angela Merkel"s open door policies greeted with open arms in 2015.
Then, taking a veiled swipe at some 7 million Greeks, Schauble said that if European countries want to keep the euro, they must implement the common currency"s framework of joint responsibility.
Finally, taking a shot at a substantial portion of the French population, the finance minister said that Germany needs a strong, pro-European France to hold together the European project, veteran German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Wednesday, less than two weeks out from the first round of the French presidential election.
The comments from Schaeuble once again confirmed the German government"s revulsion to National Front presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, who wants to abandon the euro currency and is expected to go through to a run-off vote. A success for Le Pen, and a redenomination of the French franc, would lead to disaster for the euro and likely result in a return to the Deutsche Mark, ending the cheap currency benefits Germany gets from participating in the common currency.
"We need a strong France ... we need a pro-European France," Schaeuble said during a round table discussion in Berlin quoted by Reuters. "We need France to hold together Europe."
"I hope Le Pen does not become French president," he added, seemingly unhappy with the democratic process in France.
It wasn"t just Le Pen, however, as Schauble also took aim at the far left: "Le Pen, Melanchon in the second round would be a nightmare", the finance minister added.
On Tuesday, Schaeuble said that polls show French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron will likely to enter second round voting and win the presidency, and added that he would “probably” vote for former Rothschild banker.
No surprise there.
France votes in the first round of its presidential election in less than two weeks, on April 23, with the top two placed candidates going head-to-head on May 7. Earlier on Wednesday, an Ifop-Fiducial poll showed Le Pen leading narrowly in the first round, but likely to lose the run-off to centrist Emmanuel Macron.
Reiterating Berlin"s need for France to play a full role in the European Union, which was stunned by Britain"s vote last June to leave the bloc, Schaeuble added: "Germany cannot lead Europe alone."
"That doesn"t work, that is completely clear," he said. "We need France at least as much as France needs us." Germany had a responsibility to lead in Europe due to its "geostrategic position", Schaeuble said, but added: "Some people expect too much of us ... politically, we are not as strong as France." To millions of European that may be the best news of the day.
The most recent French election polls remain very tight. Four candidates have a genuine shot at making it to the final round.
The first round vote is on April 23. Yet, a huge percentage of voters still have not made up their minds who to vote for.
Another 32% to 37% plan on sitting the election out or purposely spoiling their ballot.
4.5 Percentage Points Separate Macron, Fillon, Mélenchon
Round One Confidence
How confident should Le Pen and Macron be regarding round one? Take a guess before reading further.
Support for Le Pen is relatively solid. So is support for Fillon. Hamon, Mélenchon, and Macron have issues.
33% of Macron’s alleged base may not even vote for him!
If Mélenchon can manage to hold his base while capturing support for Macron, we could see something virtually no one but me has even discussed: Le Pen vs Mélenchon in round two.
Which Way Are Undecideds Likely to Break?
To ascertain who voters are likely to switch to, assuming they switch, let’s investigate round two intent.
Macron is the clear winner in second round intent, but results vary widely.
Those intending to vote for Hamon are highly likely to support Macron in round two, assuming, of course, Macron does make it to round two. However, Hamon is only polling 8.5% now as his base has largely abandoned him already.
Despite the fact that the positions of Le Pen and Mélenchon are very similar, Le Pen presumably would pick up very little support from Mélenchon while a whopping 40% would choose to sit the election out in protest.
This looks like a lukewarm hold your nose vote for Macron.
If Fillon is knocked out of round one, his support would be much more evenly split, but Macron still rates better than Le Pen.
Does Any of This Make Much Sense?
On the surface, not much.
Le Pen and Mélenchon both eject EU institutions, free trade, and NATO. Both are in favor closer ties with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Fillon is pro-Europe as is Macron and Hamon. But Le Pen, who is vehemently anti-Europe, rates to pick up 31% of Fillon’s vote if he is knocked out, assuming you believe the polls.
Neither Le Pen nor Mélenchon is likely to get their anti-Euro legislation passed in French parliament and that assessment may help both of them at the expense of Macron.
Le Pen vs Macron
Here’s another chart to ponder.
Given round two intentions stated above, this should have been a massive landslide Macron. But it isn’t.
The above chart is yet another sign of doubt about Macron.
Macron better not make any serious blunders in the final 12 days of round one campaigning.
