Showing posts with label European people. Show all posts
Showing posts with label European people. Show all posts

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Carpetbagger Paradise - by James McShirley


The term carpetbagger originally referred to post-Civil War Northerners who

moved to the South during reconstruction for either economic gain, political

gain, or both. They frequently arrived with hastily sewn suitcases made of

carpet remnants, hence the moniker “carpetbaggers.” Carpetbagging has

subsequently also become a popular description for non-native politicians who

for expediency and opportunity establish political roots in some newfound

territory. (Think: The Bush family in Texas or Hillary Clinton in New York.)

Carpetbagging has now evolved to describe virtually any unscrupulous, or

opportunistic outsider seeking financial gain. In the context of this last

definition there has never been a time when carpetbagging has experienced such a

renaissance as it has in modern finance. It’s the golden era of carpetbagging.

You could say, in fact,

we are living in a veritable carpetbagger’s paradise.




They Should have called it “Carpetbanking”



Of course, by definition

all

bankers are in the business of carpetbagging. The very nature of owning the

pieces of paper we exchange for real goods and services means there’s a constant

source of outside profiteering, at the expense of local people in useful

society. You can’t buy, sell, lease, or conduct a single transaction without a

carpetbanker somewhere getting his cut. Maybe though in the case of bankers we

need to update the term carpetbagger to “Guccibagger.” Unscrupulous outsiders

plying their trade elsewhere has been a Fed tradition since 1913.

We’re no longer in Bedford Falls, Mr. Bailey. Mr. Potter’s heirs are alive, and

prospering all over the planet.



National Pastime



Carpetbagging has indeed become so fashionable as to be a National pastime.

Fully aided and abetted by the (not) Federal (and not) Reserve, with full

cooperation from the Federal government it has morphed to new dimensions. Things

like ZIRP, stock market bubbles, housing bubbles, and everything bubblelicious

in between are all fully sanctioned events. By “sanctioned” I mean, heavily

subsidized; ultimately by YOU, dear taxpayer. Carpetbaggers thrive on OPM and

implicit guarantees of success. Why reinvent the con when you can merely pack up

your magic carpetbag and climb on the carpetbagging hypersonic loop? All aboard!



The (Dis)information Super Highway



The carpetbagging highway is in fact a 10-lane super interstate stretching all

the way from Silicon Valley to Washington DC. Buy Tesla? Of course, that Musk

chap is working on a hyper-speed of light gismo which will transport you to Mars

in the morning and still have you back by 8 PM to watch

American Idol.

With that in mind how can TSLA stock not hit $5,000? Amazon? It’s a foregone

conclusion that the Bezos machine will eventually sell


everything


to

everybody.

He’s not only going to sell everything to everybody, he’s going to be able to

read your mind and deliver it while you are still thinking of it! Gone are the

days of even having to bother with those pesky keystrokes. Yessirree, in the

land of Amazon there will be no exertion, no jobs, and no profits, yet somehow,

it’s all going to work out. Who cares about social chaos and starvation when you

can load the boat on AMZN

now

and get rich! Living in a carpetbagger’s paradise is like watching perpetual

Brady Bunch reruns. Everything works out, and it always ends with a happy song.



Vegas Hotel, or a Tree in Southern Greece?



Gold and silver owners know full well the carpetbagging nature of derivatives,

and how they are used to suppress and manipulate the underlying product. You in

fact don’t need to know a damn thing about mining, precious metals, or even

what

gold and silver are, to profit handsomely from them. Does gold come from the

ground, or does it grow on trees in southern Greece and Italy? Isn’t a golden

nugget some hotel in Vegas where Elvis hung out? Who cares, why bother, just

know that you will make money playing the cartel game. Short gold on 1% rallies,

NFP Fridays, option expirations, and other key no-no times and you will come out

like a Northern carpetbagger in 1868 Biloxi. The name of the game is take what

they give you, and it’s obvious TPTB are fully quiescent in facilitating paper

profits derived from suppressing precious metals, and in doing so ruin an entire

industry.




Hard Times (At least for Now)



These are no doubt hard times for precious metal investors. The discouragement

is understandable, the unfairness of it all hard to swallow. The Bitcoin, Tesla,

and FAANG carpetbaggers have been partying like it’s 1999, a most recent

investing mania era, in addition to the Prince song. Carpetbaggers rarely see

the violent upper cuts that hit them out of nowhere. Like a few Northerners who

got tossed out on their ear into a muddy street in the South it wouldn’t take

much to turn this carpetbagger’s paradise into a 1-way muddy street to hell.

Tesla, Amazon, and other Uber-bubbly delights can become the latest incarnation

of 1990’s dot.com stocks, which never made money and fell back their intrinsic

values: zero, or near-zero. Pack your (non-carpet) bags, we’re traveling back to

the world of real

money;

which is always gold and silver. It’s been a long journey from 2011. The return

trip should be far more pleasant, even if it isn’t on a Mars hyper-light-speed

gismo.




James McShirley
November 30, 2017

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Car-Bomb Kills "One-Woman WikiLeaks" Who Led The Panama Papers Revelations

Meet Daphne Caruana Galizia, the journalist who led the Panama Papers investigation into corruption in Malta.



A blogger whose posts often attracted more readers than the combined circulation of the country’s newspapers, Caruana Galizia was recently described by Politico as a “one-woman WikiLeaks”.





To John Dalli, a former European commissioner whom she helped bring down in a tobacco lobbying scandal, Galizia is “a terrorist.”



To opposition MPs, she’s a political force of nature, one who fortunately has her guns aimed at the other side of the aisle.



“She single-handedly brought the government to the verge of collapse,” says one MP. “The lady has balls,” says another.



Galizia’s mantra was simple: blog relentlessly about the “cronyism that is accepted as something normal here. I can’t bear to see people like that rewarded.”



Her blogs were a thorn in the side of both the establishment and underworld figures that hold sway in Europe’s smallest member state.


Well, sadly, all that is over now, as Galizia was killed today when her car, a Peugeot 108, was destroyed by a powerful explosive device which blew the car into several pieces and threw the debris into a nearby field.



As The Guardian reports, her most recent revelations pointed the finger at Malta’s prime minister, Joseph Muscat, and two of his closest aides, connecting offshore companies linked to the three men with the sale of Maltese passports and payments from the government of Azerbaijan.


No group or individual has come forward to claim responsibility for the attack.


Malta’s president, Marie-Louise Coleiro Preca, called for calm.





“In these moments, when the country is shocked by such a vicious attack, I call on everyone to measure their words, to not pass judgment and to show solidarity,” she said.



“Everyone knows Ms Caruana Galizia was a harsh critic of mine,” Muscat at a hastily convened press conference, “both politically and personally, but nobody can justify this barbaric act in any way”.



The Nationalist party leader, Adrian Delia – himself the subject of negative stories by Caruana Galizia – claimed the killing was linked to her reporting.





“A political murder took place today,” Delia said in a statement.



“What happened today is not an ordinary killing. It is a consequence of the total collapse of the rule of law which has been going on for the past four years.”



Responding to news of the attack, the German MEP Sven Giegold, a leading figure in the parliament’s Panama Papers inquiry, said he was “shocked and saddened”.





“It is too early to know the cause of the explosion but we expect to see a thorough investigation,” said Giegold.



“Such incidents bring to mind Putin’s Russia, not the European Union. There can be absolutely no tolerance for violence against the press and violations of the freedom of expression in the European Union.



It doews make one wonder just what is happening in Europe, as Greece"s former finance minister tweeted...



Interesintgly, Muscat announced in parliament that FBI officers were on their way to Malta to assist with the investigation, following his request for outside help from the US government.



Caruana Galizia was 53 and leaves a husband and three sons.

Thursday, August 24, 2017

Mike Rowe Eviscerates "Smug" Snowflake Who Calls Him A "White Nationalist"

If you ever plan to attack Mike Rowe over Facebook then you better bring more than just a few "smug and snarky" comments to the table because anything less than a well-sourced, reasoned, fact-based argument might just earn you the same public humiliation that Rowe just dropped on Chuck Atkins.  Oh, and your grammar better be spot on too.


Unfortunately, Chuck didn"t follow any of the guidelines above when he decided to write on Mike Rowe"s Facebook thread accusing him of being at "white nationalist" for having the audacity to suggest that a $200,000 college education may not be the "best" option for all American high school graduates. Apparently Chuck is convinced that helping people get high-paying, stable trade jobs is just racism at it"s worst...


In any event, here is what Chuck Atkins made the mistake of posting on Rowe"s Facebook page:





"One of the tenants of white nationalism is that college educated people are academic elitests. Comment? No? I"m not surprised. You never take a political stand because you don’t want to alienate anybody. Its bad for business. I get it. But there is a current of anti intellectualism in this country - promoted by Republicans. Those people love you, and they think your initiative is their initiative. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is kickin our ass academically."



Which prompted an epic, multi-page response from Rowe that started out as follows:





Hi Chuck



Since we’re being candid, allow me to say how much I dislike your post. Everything about it annoys me – your smug and snarky tone, your appalling grammar, your complete lack of evidence to support your claims, and of course, the overarching logical fallacy that informs your entire position. What really bugs me though, is the fact that you’re not entirely wrong. It’s true; I haven’t shared any political opinions this week, in part anyway, because doing so might very well be “bad for business.”




Rowe goes on to beautifully explain how logical fallacies, much like the one presented by Chuck Atkins, are largely to blame for the toxic political climate in the country right now. 





You say that White Nationalists believe that everyone who goes to college is an “academic elite.” You then say that Republicans promote “anti-intellectualism.” You offer no proof to support either claim, but it really doesn’t matter – your statements successfully connect two radically different organizations by alleging a shared belief. Thus, White Nationalists and The Republican Party suddenly have something in common – a contempt for higher education. Then, you make it personal. You say that Republicans “love” me because they believe that my initiative and “their” initiative are one and the same. But of course, “their” initiative is now the same initiative as White Nationalists.



Very clever. Without offering a shred of evidence, you’ve implied that Republicans who support mikeroweWORKS do so because they believe I share their disdain for all things “intellectual.” And poof - just like that, Republicans, White Nationalists, and mikeroweWORKS are suddenly conflated, and the next thing you know, I’m off on a press tour to disavow rumors of my troubling association with the Nazis!



Far-fetched? Far from it. That’s how logical fallacies work. A flaw in reasoning or a mistaken belief undermines the logic of a conclusion, often leading to real-world consequences. And right now, logical fallacies are not limited to the warped beliefs of morons with tiki torches, and other morons calling for “more dead cops.” Logical fallacies are everywhere.



As I type this, a Democrat on CNN is making an argument that says, “because Thomas Jefferson owned slaves, those Republicans now opposed to tearing down his memorial are “pro-slavery,” and therefore aligned with the modern day KKK.” That’s a logical fallacy.



Over on Fox, a Republican is arguing that “any Democrat who has not yet condemned the Senator from Missouri for publicly wishing that Donald Trump be assassinated, is guilty of wishing for the exact same thing.” That’s a logical fallacy.



Meanwhile, there were many other pearls of wisdom in Rowe"s epic rant.


Here"s a great one demonstrating how pretty much everything can be misconstrued to develop whatever narrative is convenient for any given party at any given time...





Want to hear another one? Imagine something like this, unfolding over on MSNBC.



"Good Evening, America, our top story tonight… Chuck Atkins is a racist! Why? Because he can’t spell. Just look at his grammar! In a recent post on Mike Rowe’s Facebook page, Mr. Atkins, while bemoaning America’s global academic standing, not only misspelled “elitist,” he used “tenants” when he meant “tenets.” He neglected to use a hyphen in “anti-intellectual,” and he misplaced several commas and apostrophes! But why is he a racist, you ask? Simple. Because everyone knows racists are ignorant. Chuck Atkins is clearly a poor speller. Poor spelling and grammar are signs of ignorance. Ergo - Chuck Atkins is a racist! Boom! The matter is settled!"



...and another on celebrities forcing their political opinions in our face...





What can I say? I work for half-a-dozen different companies, none of whom pay me to share my political opinions. I run a non-partisan foundation, I’m about to launch a new show on Facebook, and I’m very aware that celebrities pay a price for opening their big fat gobs. Gilbert Gottfried, Kathy Griffin, Colin Kaepernick, Milo Yiannopoulos…even that guy from Google who just got himself fired for mouthing off. There’s no getting around it – the first amendment does not guarantee the freedom to speak without consequences. And really, that’s fine by me.



So no – I’m not going to share my personal feelings about Charlottesville, President Trump, or the current effort to remove thousands of statues of long dead soldiers from the public square. Not just because it’s “bad for business,” but because it’s annoying. I can’t think of a single celebrity whose political opinion I value, and I’m not going to assume the country feels any differently about mine.



Conclusion:


YJGS



Below is the full rant from Mike Rowe:


* * *


Hi Chuck


Since we’re being candid, allow me to say how much I dislike your post. Everything about it annoys me – your smug and snarky tone, your appalling grammar, your complete lack of evidence to support your claims, and of course, the overarching logical fallacy that informs your entire position. What really bugs me though, is the fact that you’re not entirely wrong. It’s true; I haven’t shared any political opinions this week, in part anyway, because doing so might very well be “bad for business.”


What can I say? I work for half-a-dozen different companies, none of whom pay me to share my political opinions. I run a non-partisan foundation, I’m about to launch a new show on Facebook, and I’m very aware that celebrities pay a price for opening their big fat gobs. Gilbert Gottfried, Kathy Griffin, Colin Kaepernick, Milo Yiannopoulos…even that guy from Google who just got himself fired for mouthing off. There’s no getting around it – the first amendment does not guarantee the freedom to speak without consequences. And really, that’s fine by me.


So no – I’m not going to share my personal feelings about Charlottesville, President Trump, or the current effort to remove thousands of statues of long dead soldiers from the public square. Not just because it’s “bad for business,” but because it’s annoying. I can’t think of a single celebrity whose political opinion I value, and I’m not going to assume the country feels any differently about mine. So, rather than blow myself up, or chime in with all the obvious observations about the cowardly scum in the pointy hats, I’m going to talk instead about my belief that comments like yours pose a far greater threat to the future of our country than the existence of a memorial to Thomas Jefferson, or a monument to George Washington. Ready? Let’s start with a closer look at your claims.


You say that White Nationalists believe that everyone who goes to college is an “academic elite.” You then say that Republicans promote “anti-intellectualism.” You offer no proof to support either claim, but it really doesn’t matter – your statements successfully connect two radically different organizations by alleging a shared belief. Thus, White Nationalists and The Republican Party suddenly have something in common – a contempt for higher education. Then, you make it personal. You say that Republicans “love” me because they believe that my initiative and “their” initiative are one and the same. But of course, “their” initiative is now the same initiative as White Nationalists.


Very clever. Without offering a shred of evidence, you’ve implied that Republicans who support mikeroweWORKS do so because they believe I share their disdain for all things “intellectual.” And poof - just like that, Republicans, White Nationalists, and mikeroweWORKS are suddenly conflated, and the next thing you know, I’m off on a press tour to disavow rumors of my troubling association with the Nazis!


Far-fetched? Far from it. That’s how logical fallacies work. A flaw in reasoning or a mistaken belief undermines the logic of a conclusion, often leading to real-world consequences. And right now, logical fallacies are not limited to the warped beliefs of morons with tiki torches, and other morons calling for “more dead cops.” Logical fallacies are everywhere.


As I type this, a Democrat on CNN is making an argument that says, “because Thomas Jefferson owned slaves, those Republicans now opposed to tearing down his memorial are “pro-slavery,” and therefore aligned with the modern day KKK.” That’s a logical fallacy.


Over on Fox, a Republican is arguing that “any Democrat who has not yet condemned the Senator from Missouri for publicly wishing that Donald Trump be assassinated, is guilty of wishing for the exact same thing.” That’s a logical fallacy.


Yesterday, on The Science Channel, Neil DeGrasse Tyson, a noted astronomer, tweeted that the ability of scientists to accurately predict the solar eclipse, was proof that predictions of global warming were also accurate. That’s a logical fallacy.


Want to hear another one? Imagine something like this, unfolding over on MSNBC.


"Good Evening, America, our top story tonight… Chuck Atkins is a racist! Why? Because he can’t spell. Just look at his grammar! In a recent post on Mike Rowe’s Facebook page, Mr. Atkins, while bemoaning America’s global academic standing, not only misspelled “elitist,” he used “tenants” when he meant “tenets.” He neglected to use a hyphen in “anti-intellectual,” and he misplaced several commas and apostrophes! But why is he a racist, you ask? Simple. Because everyone knows racists are ignorant. Chuck Atkins is clearly a poor speller. Poor spelling and grammar are signs of ignorance. Ergo - Chuck Atkins is a racist! Boom! The matter is settled!"


There’s not much we can do about the news, but here on Facebook, I think we can do better. This isn’t Twitter. We’re not limited to a few inflammatory sentences and a flurry of emojis. Take a moment, Chuck. Think. Make a rational argument. Otherwise, just link us to a cat video. People love those, and they’re almost never “bad for business.” (Unless of course, the cat gets hurt. People hate that.) Just don’t assume that people will care about your beliefs, if you’re not willing to back them up with some relevant facts and a rational conclusion. Here, for instance, are a few facts that matter to me, with respect to my foundation and the recurring charge of “fostering anti-intellectualism.”


mikeroweWORKS is a PR campaign for the skilled trades. For the last nine years, we’ve partnered with numerous trade schools, raised millions of dollars for work-ethic scholarships, and called attention to millions of jobs that don’t require a four-year degree. But that doesn’t mean we’re “anti-intellectual.” We"re not even “anti-college.” We simply reject the popular notion that a four-year degree is the best path for the most people. And we’re hardly alone.


Millions of reasonable people – Republicans and Democrats alike – are worried that our universities are doing a poor job of preparing students for the real world. They’re worried about activist professors, safe spaces, the rising cost of tuition, a growing contempt for history, and a simmering disregard of the first amendment. These people are concerned that our universities – once beacons of free speech – now pander to a relatively small percentage of students who can’t tolerate any political opinion that challenges their own. And they’re concerned – deeply concerned - that millions of good jobs are currently vacant that don’t require a four-year degree, or any of the catastrophic debt that comes with it.


Again - these are not the concerns of “anti-intellectuals." They are the concerns of people who care about the future of the country. I don’t know how many of these people are Republicans, but I can assure you that no one who actually supports my initiative is remotely confused about my feelings on education, because I’ve been crystal clear on that topic from the very beginning. To quote Thomas Jefferson, (while I still can,) "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free and live in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." On this point, my foundation does not equivocate.


In other words, Chuck, I have no idea what The White Nationalists think about my efforts, or the Republicans, the Democrats, the elitists, the Italians, the Presbyterians, the unions, or the self-proclaimed anti-intellectuals. And really, I couldn’t care less. My question is, why do you?


Mike


PS. Ok, I’ve just re-read this, (in a desperate search for typos,) and I want to apologize for pointing out that you’re a lousy speller. This is probably not the time to trot out The Grammar Nazi, but your tenor and tone pissed me off, and I responded in my own snarky way. Sorry.


PPS Maybe this is how political correctness begins? Maybe we start by correcting each other’s grammar, and then move on to the business of correcting everything else? Today a missing hyphen, tomorrow a missing monument. Or, maybe not.

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Poland May Demand Billions In Reparations From Germany For World War II

As deep cracks have emerged in the formerly pristine diplomatic relations between Poland and the EU over the past few months, some burried ghosts from Europe"s past are making an unexpected come back.


Eight years after the fall of the Nazi regime, Poland decided to forego further reparations from Germany. But now there are renewed calls for those reparations to be paid. More than 72 years after the end of the Second World War, Polish politicians are demanding that Germany pay their country reparations. A research office of Poland’s lower house of parliament, the Sejm, is reviewing whether this would be possible according to TheLocal.


The analysis should be complete by August 11th, Sejm representative Arkadiusz Mularczyk of the leading Law and Justice party (PiS) told news agency PAP last week. The review comes after comments made by the powerful head of the PiS, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who last week accused Germany of "rejecting" its Second World War responsibilities, going as far as to suggest Berlin should pay reparations.



A demonstration marking the 73rd anniversary of the 1944 Warsaw Uprising. Photo


"We are talking about huge sums and also the fact that the Germans have for years rejected their responsibility for the Second World War," Kaczynski told Catholic radio station Radio Maryja.


Kaczynski"s brother and former President Lech Kaczynski - who died in 2010 - had estimated when he was mayor of Warsaw that the had cost the capital city alone $45.3 billion.


In August 1953, Poland’s former communist government was under pressure from the Soviet Union when it decided not to take further compensation from Germany as a way to help solve “the German question in the spirit of democracy and peace.” The Second World War had begun with the Nazis’ invasion of Poland and the war ultimately cost around six million Polish citizens their lives.


And as we wait for Poland"s decision, the rumblings are growing louder inside the government: “It is not genuine that Poland renounced reparations that were due to us from Germany,” said Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz to Polish news channel TVP Info.


Meanwhile, German government spokeswoman Ulrike Demmer said that Germany “stands by its responsibility in the Second World War, politically, morally and financially." But she added that the question of reparations had already been legally and politically resolved. Macierewicz argues that the former communist government had been used as a puppet for the Soviet Union at the time of its decision.


Without any discussion, the Germans owe Poland war reparations,” Macierewicz said.


Relations between Berlin and Warsaw have been on edge recently over issues including Germany’s push to share responsibility for refugees across Europe - which Poland has rejected - to the European Commission’s infringement procedure against PiS plans to have more control over the judiciary. Last month the EU sued Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, forcing them to accept refugees even as the rest of Europe turns a blind eye to the 100 thousand refugees that have made landfall in recent months in Italy.

Friday, July 21, 2017

Chechnya's Leader Claims "Russian Doomsday Device" Is Activated

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,


Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya, gave a rare interview to a media outlet in the United States that aired Tuesday, and what he said is taking many aback...



While speaking to HBO’s Real Sports, Kadyrov denied that gay people are humans, that they exist in his region, and that his government regularly detains or tortures them, despite ample reports to the contrary. But that isn’t the news that’s riling up the masses, even though it is concerning that Kadyrov is more than likely committing human rights violations. He also made a troubling comment about his country’s nuclear arsenal and a Russian doomsday device.



Kadyrov said,





“America is not really a strong enough state for us to regard it as an enemy of Russia. We have a strong government and are a nuclear state.



Even if our government was completely destroyed, our nuclear missiles would be automatically deployed. We will put the whole world on its knees and screw it from behind.”



That comment certainly puts the left’s insistence on a war with Russia in perspective.  And Kadyrov is probably being more accurate than not in that statement.


According to The New York Times, Russia built a system in the 1980s that could do what Kadyrov described, known as the Perimeter System. Bruce Blair, the former US nuclear officer who broke the story of the Perimeter System for The New York Times in 1993, told Business Insider that the system works when it detects nuclear explosions. Only a small crew, deep in a bunker, has a hand in the otherwise automated system, according to Blair.



Essentially, if another country conducted a nuclear attack that would destroy the government of Russia or anything a 1980s-era system would perceive as a nuclear attack, an automated system would empty Russia’s missile silos in an immediate counterattack. Blaire’s concern is the automation of such a system





“One concern is that it’s highly automated, and cyber attacks, for example, or other phenomena, natural or man-made, could set it off,” Blair said. “It poses a risk of accidental nuclear attack by Russia.”



But there has yet to be an accidental nuclear attack and it’s been over 30 years since the system was first activated. But could the 1980’s technology pose a problem and cause an all out nuclear war? It’s hard to say, and experts are not sure either. “This was designed to retaliate massively against the US. What the specific targets are in this plan no one really knows, but it can be safely assumed it’s large-scale,” Blair said, adding that it would destroy most Americans and most large US cities.


This is troublesome to many Americans, considering the US president is supposed to sign off on any nuclear attack to prevent accidental strikes, and the left is continuing to push the former Soviet Union increasing tensions with Russia. If Washington were incapacitated by a nuclear strike, it’s unclear whether it could respond at all. The US’s nuclear weapons are code-locked and absent the president and a backup in the Pentagon, the US may not be able to respond. Moscow code-locks its weapons as well, but this system would allow it to retaliate even after a nuclear decapitation.

Sunday, June 11, 2017

The American Architects Of The South-African Catastrophe

Yes, it has happened. A mere 23 years after the 1994 transition, in South Africa, to raw ripe democracy, six years following the publication of a wide-ranging analysis of that catastrophe, Into the Cannibal"s Pot: Lessons for America from Post-Apartheid South Africa, a Beltway libertarian think tank has convened to address the problem that is South Africa.


The reference is to an upcoming CATO “Policy Forum,” euphemized as “South Africa at a Crossroad.” One of the individuals to headline the “Forum” is Princeton Lyman, described in a CATO email tease as having “served as the U.S. Ambassador to South Africa at the time of the transfer of power from white minority to black majority.” At the “Forum,” former ambassador Lyman will be discussing “America’s original hopes for a new South Africa and the extent to which America’s expectations have been left unfulfilled.” (Italics added.)


The chutzpah!


The CATO Institute’s disappointment in the South Africa the United States helped bring about is nothing compared to the depredations suffered by South Africans, due to America’s insistence that their country pass into the hands of a voracious majority. Unwise South African leaders acquiesced. Federalism was discounted. Minority rights for the Afrikaner, Anglo and Zulu were dismissed.


Aborted Attempts at South African Decentralization


This audacity of empire is covered in a self-explanatory chapter of Into the Cannibal’s Pot, titled “The Anglo-American Axis of Evil,” in which Lyman makes a cameo. (It’s not flattering.) From the comfort of the CATO headquarters, in 2017, the former ambassador will also be pondering whether “growing opposition will remove the African National Congress [ANC] from power.” The mindset of the DC establishment, CATO libertarians included, has it that changing the guard  —replacing one strongman with another — will fix South Africa, or any other of the sites of American foreign-policy interventions. 


So, what exactly did Princeton Nathan Lyman do on behalf of America in South Africa? Or, more precisely, who did he sideline? 


Ronald Reagan, who favored “constructive engagement” with South Africa, foresaw the chaos and carnage of an abrupt transition of power. So did the South Africans Fredrick van Zyl Slabbert, RIP (he died in May 2010), and Dr. Mangosuthu Buthelezi. The first was leader of the opposition Progressive Federal Party, who, alongside the late, intrepid Helen Suzman became the PFP’s chief critic of Nationalist policy (namely Apartheid). The second was Chief Minister of the KwaZulu homeland and leader of the Zulu people and their Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). At the time, Buthelezi was the only black leader with any mass following who could act as a counter to the ANC. These men were not “lunch-pail liberals” from the West, but indigenous, classical liberal Africans — one white, one black — who understood and loved the county of their ancestors and wished to safeguard it for their posterity.


Both Buthelezi and Slabbert had applied their astringent minds to power-sharing constitutional dispensations. Both leaders were bright enough to recognize democracy for the disaster it would bring to a country as divided as theirs; they understood that “a mass-based black party that received enough votes could avoid having to enter into a coalition and could sweep aside the minority vote.” Thus, Buthelezi espoused a multi-racial, decentralized federation, in which “elites of the various groups” would “agree to share executive power and abide by a system of mutual vetoes and spheres of communal autonomy.” Paramount to Buthelezi was “the preservation of the rights of cultural groups and the protection of minorities.” Slabbert studied a “new system that entrenched individual rights, encouraged power-sharing through a grand coalition of black and white parties, and gave a veto right to minorities in crucial issues.”


Although he eventually threw his intellectual heft behind simple majority rule, in better days, Slabbert had spoken with circumspection about “unrestrained majoritarianism,” expressing the eminently educated opinion that, were majority rule to be made an inevitable corollary of South Africa’s political system, the outcomes would be severely undemocratic. It’s worth considering that even Zimbabwe for its first seven, fat years of independence, allowed “white members of parliament [to be] elected on a special roll to represent white interests.”


Washington Destroyed South African Federalism Before It Began


In his tome, Partner to History: The US Role in South Africa’s Transition to Democracy (2002), Princeton Lyman, the American Ambassador to South Africa from 1992 to 1995, records the active role Americans performed in the transition to democracy, especially in “dissuading spoilers” — the author’s pejorative, it would appear, for perfectly legitimate partners to the negotiations. One such partner, introduced above, was Buthelezi; another was military hero and former chief of the Defense Force, Constand Viljoen.


Avoid “wrecking the process”: This ultimatum was the message transmitted to the Afrikaner general and the African gentleman, loud and clear. The United States, with Lyman in the lead, failed to lean on the African National Congress (Nelson Mandela’s goons) to accommodate a federal structure. It promised merely to hold a future South African government to its “pre-election commitments, including shared power and the protection of minorities.” Until then, the skeptical Buthelezi was instructed to trust the ANC to relinquish the requisite power. Enraged, Buthelezi threatened to take his case to the American people and “spotlight” the knavish confederacy between their government and the ANC. (Then, Republicans were generally with Buthelezi, Democrats with the ANC. These days, both parties are with the ANC.) Being the man Prime Minister, F. W. de Klerk was not, Buthelezi rejected the pressure and overtures from the West. “I am utterly sick of being told how wrong I am by a world out there,” he wrote to Lyman. The dispensation being hatched was “an instrument for the annihilation of KwaZulu.”


Viljoen, who represented the hardliner Afrikaners and the security forces, believed de Klerk had abdicated his responsibilities to this electorate. He planned on leading a coalition that would have deposed the freelancing de Klerk and negotiated for an Afrikaner ethnic state. Likewise, Buthelezi, whose championship of self-determination had been denied, was fed up to the back teeth with being sidelined. He and his Zulu impis were every bit as fractious as Viljoen; every bit as willing to fight for their rightful corner of the African Eden. For setting his sights on sovereignty, the Zulu royal and his following (close on twenty percent of the population) were condemned as reactionaries by the West (and by CATO’s point person).


Hardly a dog of an American commentator missed the opportunity to lift his leg in protest against Buthelezi, for making common cause with Afrikaner decentralists and against the ANC. “Wreckers” is how the gray eminence of American newspapers — The New York Times, also known as “Pravda on the Hudson” — dubbed the two leaders and the millions whom they represented. The two, alleged the Times in a 1994 editorial, were locked in an “unscrupulous alliance to disrupt the first elections in South Africa in which all races will have a vote.” Following the might-makes-right maxim — and committing a non sequitur in the process — Times editorialists demanded that the leaders of these African and Afrikaner ethnic minorities relinquish demands for sovereign status because their political power was at best “anemic.” Meanwhile the Times dismissed Buthelezi as a puppet in Pretoria’s blackface minstrelsy.


This was drivel. Buthelezi, a crafty leader who had rejected “the ignoble independence accorded to other homelands” within apartheid’s framework, was never a collaborator. Understand: For two centuries Africans and Afrikaners had been clashing and alternately collaborating on the continent. Shaka (1787–1828), Dingane (1795–1840), Mpande (1798–1872), Cetshwayo (1826–1884) — Buthelezi was heir to these Zulu kings who had been wheeling, dealing, and warring with Boers well before the inception of The New York Times.



Masters of mass mobilization, the ANC used the political tinderbox ignited in the ramp-up to the first democratic elections to great effect in discrediting the security forces, and claiming that the apartheid government was fomenting the intra-ethnic violence between Inkatha (Zulu) and the ANC (Xhosa). But while the ANC accused the security forces of arming Inkatha, the latter faction blamed the security forces for allying themselves with the ANC, especially when Zulu hostels and squatter camps were raided in response to ANC pressure. For the National Party government, the ongoing ethnic conflict was a lose-lose proposition.


But not for the savvy ANC.


Nelson Mandela harnessed the situation by accusing Prime Minister de Klerk of “either complicity or of not caring enough about black deaths” to stop black-on-black violence. The foreign press helped fuse fact with fancy by transmitting this claim, later to be dismissed by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. (That body eventually determined that there was “little evidence of a centrally directed, coherent and formally instituted third force.”) Nevertheless, a constellation of unfavorable circumstances was aligned against Buthelezi, who capitulated in the end.


Buthelezi was the intellectual bête noire of the communist ANC — and one of the few leaders in South Africa to mine the Western canon widely and wisely for what it teaches about liberty and the dangers of centralizing political power. He cited with characteristic passion and poignancy, in July 2009, a poem (“The Second Coming”) that W. B. Yeats wrote in January 1919:





Things fall apart; the center cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned …



In contrast to what South Africa became, the United States is a country where the constitution was supposed to thwart the tyranny of the majority. This averting was meant to occur by means of a federal structure, in which powers are divided and dispersed between — and within — a central government and the constituent states. Yet the Americans sided with the ANC — the consequence of which has been the raw, ripe rule of the mob and its dominant, anointed party. 


Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Eight Reasons Why Emmanuel Macron May Soon Regret His Victory

The confetti were still littering Paris from Macron"s celebration event on Sunday night when the 39-year-old Frenchman became the youngest president in French history, and already he met with one of the biggest challenges facing his new administration: a population, mostly among the local labor unions, that is unwilling to accept any if not all of the proposed economic reforms, and made this abundantly clear on Monday by clashing in violent protests across Paris with the local riot police.


That"s not the only reason why Emmanuel Macron may find the hangover of his bitter fight with Marine Le Pen unpleasant. As The Local writes, while Macron"s supporters were jumping for joy at the Louvre and commentators all over the world were hailing Emmanuel Macron"s victory as a triumph for liberal and centrist values, a majority of French people won"t have seen it as a cause for celebration. And although Macron should be relieved, there are a few major reasons why he should stay off the Champagne this week.


Below, according to the French publication, are eight reasons why Macron has little reason for celebration as he prepares to replace Francois Hollande as the next French president.


1. He didn"t win over the majority of French people


In the second round, 56 percent of French people either abstained, cast a blank vote or voted for Le Pen. He may have won a majority of the vote, but that doesn"t make for a majority of French people.  Even in first round vote, when French people "vote with their hearts" and choose the candidate they really want, Macron didn"t do spectacularly.


On April 23rd some 8.6 million people voted for Macron, out of a possible 47 million, so in reality, you could argue that only a 6th of French voters would have Macron as their first choice. But even in the first round he benefited from tactical voting.



2. Many of those who voted for him aren"t really behind him


Of those who did vote for him, many said were doing so simply because he wasn"t Marine Le Pen. Some 33 percent of respondents in an Ipsos poll said they voted Macron because they were won over by the political renewal they saw in him. Sixteen percent put his policies top of the list, while 8 percent said his personality was the main reason they voted for him.


However the largest chunk, 43 percent, said they were mostly voting against Le Pen. 



3. Le Pen is on the move too


The far right scored a record number of votes in the first round (7.6 million) and then went and did it again in the second round, topping the 10 million mark (10.6 million to be precise). The far right are on an upward trajectory and Le Pen is hinting at a new rebranding and strategy in her post-results speech.  To be fair to Macron he recognized this fact in his victory speech and vowed do everything to stop people voting for extremes. Easier said  than done in a divided France suffering from unemployment.



4. En Marche! will have a hard time getting a majority


Macron will face a host of difficulties trying to gain a majority of seats in the parliamentary elections with such a newly created party. Without that he"ll have a hard time passing the laws he wants.  The Republicans are gearing up to try and gain a majority in parliament, in which case Macron would be reduced to not much more than a figurehead of France"s government. 


Even if En Marche! ends up the leading party, finding another group to ally with to pass reforms will be a tough task. Macron"s MP"s will face four clear blocks of opposition from Jean-Luc Melenchon"s "Unbowed" to whatever is left of the Socialist Party come June, to the Republicans and Marine Le Pen"s far right National Front.


That"s unprecedented in French politics. And on top of that, En Marche is under-financed and unlike the long established parties, it doesn"t have a long-standing coffer to dip into.
 
5. Parts of the country rejected him 


Le Pen"s strongholds in the north east held firm, gaining 57.42 percent of the vote in Calais and 61 percent in Hénin-Beaumont. In the Aisne department, Le Pen came out on top in 619 out of 804 communes.  Le Pen scored well on France"s Mediterranean coast in the south east, getting close to 50 percent in many departments, like the Var, where she gained 49 percent. 



6. He could be doomed to follow in Francois Hollande"s footsteps


Macron has a lot on his shoulders, knowing that if he fails to get results on issues like unemployment during his five years he could see the same fate as Hollande, who was so unpopular in France he became the first French president not stand for a second term. Many French people already see too much of a similarity between Macron and his predecessor. Le Pen dubbed him "Hollande"s baby" or "Hollande"s heir".


Fail to deal with unemployment and he will end up having more in common with his predecessor than he would have wished.



7. Unions are already on his back


Worker"s unions in France aren"t about to let Macron forget the huge opposition against him, despite the win. Already there have been protests, with a demonstration against the election held at la Republique in Paris on Monday organised by Front Sociale, a collective of worker"s unions and associations.


The CGT"s Michael Wamen said: “He is no an elected president, he is like a president-CEO.” 


If Macron wants to reform labour laws - and he said he will do by decree - then he can expect more uprisings in the months and years to come.



8. His to do list


Has an incoming president ever had so much on his to-do list from day one? Macron must try to reconcile the country, cut unemployment, restore faith in Europe, even reform the EU, boost the economy, deal with the terror threat and dangerous jihadists returning from the Middle East, find a way for France to be ease with Islam and immigration, help forge a new identity for the country so it feels at ease with its place in the world


In other words make France feel great again.


Yikes, Bonne Chance Manu!

Monday, May 8, 2017

Emmanuel Macron Elected Youngest Ever President Of France With 65% Of The Vote

Update: As Emmanuel Macron arrived in the courtyard of Paris"s Louvre museum to deliver his victory speech to thousands of supporters, the European Union"s anthem "Ode to Joy" played in the background.



"Tonight, France won," he said to rapturous crowds, adding that "Europe and the world are watching us." Macron said, cited by the Telegraph, that France is facing an "immense task" to rebuild European unity, fix the economy and ensure security against extremist threats.


"Our task is huge and it will require the courage of truth” he repeated. Speaking to thousands of supporters from the Louvre Museum"s courtyard, Macron said that Europe and the world are "watching us" and "waiting for us to defend the spirit of the Enlightenment, threatened in so many places."


“We have the force, the will… we will not give into fear, into lies… to the love of decline and defeat”


Macron said  "everyone said it was impossible. But they didn"t know France!" and promised to work to unify France after a bruising presidential campaign and serve the country "with love."


He also vowed to the French public: "I will protect you in the fact of threats" and said “I will respect what everyone thinks and believes, because I want the unity of our country. I will serve you with humility, strength and in line with our motto: liberty, equality, fraternity… I will serve you with love.”


His wife Brigitte then came up on stage with him, and she kissed his hand and waved to the crowd.



* * *


Live Feed from France 24:



After an extraordinary election campaign full of twists and turns, Emmanuel Macron won a dramatic victory over Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election, taking 65% of the vote, with Le Pen collecting just over a third according to estimates from four separate French pollsters. Macron, 39, will become the youngest president of France"s Fifth Republic.


As BBG notes, the firms sampled real votes as they were being counted and weighted their results to reflect the composition of the French electorate. Their projections were all within 1 percentage point. Indeed, all early polls all show Macron with at least 65% of the vote:


  • Elabe: 65.9%

  • Ifop: 65.5%

  • Ipsos: 65.1%

  • Kantar: 65.0%



Abstention in Sunday’s election was expected to hit 26%, the highest rate since 1969, reflecting a lack of enthusiasm among many voters for the choice on offer.



Macron was grateful and generous in his victory speech:





"Thank you from the bottom of my heart to all those who voted for me," begins Mr Macron in his victory speech. 



"I salute my adversary Ms Le Pen, I know why people chose to vote for an extreme party. I know the doubt, the fear they expressed.



"And it is my responsibility to take on those concerns and guarantee our unity and responsibility for our country.



"From tomorrow we will modernise politics, recognise pluralism, revitalise democracy. This will be my first mission, respecting everyone."



Althought there was one small glitch...



Moments after the results were announced, Le Pen conceded to Macron in a phone call and vowed to become major force of opposition,


“The French have elected a new president and opted for continuity,” Le Pen told supporters just outside Paris. “I wish him success in the face of great challenges,” she said.



The AFP reports that it has spoken to Macron since the election results. France’s president-elect says “a new page has turned, that of hope and of restored confidence”. 


The reactions to Macron’s win are coming in fast and hard: French President François Hollande, former Prime Minister Manuel Valls, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, British PM Theresa May are just some of the major political figures and leaders who have been congratulating modern France’s youngest president-elect over the past few minutes.


  • BELGIUM"S CHARLES MICHEL SAYS "BRAVO EMMANUEL MACRON"ON TWITTER

  • GERMANY"S SIGMAR GABRIEL CONGRATULATES EMMANUEL MACRON

  • MACRON WIN STRONG SIGN FOR UNIFIED EUROPE: GERMANY"S SEIBERT

  • MACRON WIN A "SIGN OF HOPE" FOR EUROPE, MOSCOVICI TWEETS


European leaders hailed Macron"s victory as a vote for European unity and a blow to political forces that had sought to build on last year"s Brexit vote to tear apart the European Union.   


"Your victory is a victory for a strong united Europe and for German-French friendship," German Chancellor Angela Merkel"s spokesman Steffen Seibert tweeted to Macron shortly after the election results were published.


Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister who chairs summits of European leaders, tweeted: "Congratulations to French people for choosing Liberty, Equality and Fraternity over tyranny of fake news" - an apparent reference to misleading stories about Macron that were spread on social media in the run-up to the vote.


In a tweet from her spokesperson, British Prime Minister Theresa May warmly congratulated Macron. "France is one of our closest allies and we look forward to working with the new President on a wide range of shared priorities," she said.


Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni tweeted: "Hurrah Macron President! There is hope for Europe!"


Even President Trump endorsed Le Pen in the election, but just fired off this conciliatory tweet:




Geert Wilders, who stood as a Right-wing populist in the Dutch elections but lost out to Mark Rutte, has offered his commiserations to Ms Le Pen. He went on to predict both of them would win in the next election.


As Reuters adds, Europe"s political establishment limped into 2017 fearful that the Trump and Brexit votes, fueled by anger over immigration and rising economic inequality, could be replicated on the European continent in a mega-election year in which the Dutch and Germans were also voting. As a result, the election in France, the second largest economy in the euro zone after Germany, was always seen as the litmus test for European politics. Had Le Pen won, many European officials acknowledged, it may have been the beginning of the end of the EU, Europe"s 60-year-old experiment in closer integration which delivered peace and prosperity for decades before succumbing to a series of crises over the past decade.


As the FT put it. Macron’s victory is a "phenomenal achievement" for the 39-year-old former Rothschild banker, who has never before held elected office and whose political movement En Marche! was set up barely a year ago. He becomes the youngest ever French president.


As for, Le Pen, she fell short of the 45% that she was projected to win at one point earlier in the year. But her score of 34.9% is almost twice the 18% won by her father Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002, and points to a depth of disaffection and anger towards France’s political elite that could nourish the far-right for years to come, especially if President Macron fails to deliver on his promises.


  • LE PEN CONCEDES DEFEAT OVER MACRON IN FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

  • LE PEN SAYS SHE THANKS THE 11M FRENCH VOTERS WHO SUPPORTED HER

  • LE PEN SAYS TRADITIONAL PARTIES HAVE FAILED TO REPRESENT FRENCH

  • LE PEN CALLS FOR "ALL PATRIOTS" TO JOIN HER FOR COMING VOTE

Macron, a former government adviser and economy minister in the Hollande administration, will now turn his attention to elections for the National Assembly on June 11 and 18. He needs to build a stable majority from a party that as yet has no MPs. On Friday, he said he already had in mind his nominee for prime minister, a choice that could help him build alliances with MPs from other parties.


Shortly after the results were announced, BuzzFeed reported that LePen"s Front National is going to re-brand, and change its name after the election result. Le Pen said that "The National Front ... must deeply renew itself in order to rise to the historic opportunity and meet the French people"s expectations. I will propose to start this deep transformation of our movement in order to make a new political force."



Meanwhile, the Leave EU campaign, which presumably preferred a Le Pen victory over Macron, has just tweeted the following picture and message:



* * *


MARKET REACTION


Macron"s victory is in line with expectations, which according to several banks carries a "sell the news" risk, especially in EURUSD.


In a note released earlier on Sunday, Barclays" Giovanni Paci writes that "a Macron victory, in line with current polls, in the second round of the French Presidential election, carries risk of a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” downside move in EURUSD, given the current long EUR pre-positioning." On the other hand, "this outcome would also likely bring temporary relief and a further reduction in volatility." Because a VIX of 10 is high?


Some further details below:





Macron victory in line with polls carries risk of a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” downside move in EURUSD, given the current long EUR pre-positioning. The EUR political-risk premium was reduced significantly by the “benign” first round outcome, which supported a c.2% EUR NEER appreciation. EURUSD should depreciate mildly over the remainder of this year, as monetary policy divergence and some residual political-risk premia weigh on the common currency.



With market attention to the ‘Politics of Rage’ likely to fade after the French election, and no other clear themes visible, we see risk of a significant decline in market volatility. Implied volatility is low across asset classes (Figure 1) and, for most major currencies, realized and implied volatility measures are well below their yearly averages (Figure 2). Although we do not believe the Politics of Rage has yet crested, the outcome of the Dutch elections and the expected victory of Emmanuel Macron in France, are likely to assuage market fear of radical political change, at least for the near term, as no other clear risk events are visible. Risk-taking began to deteriorate earlier this year as ambiguity brought about by the ‘Politics of Rage’ dampened strategic risk taking. However, the resolution of near-term risks, with no other clear themes or major risk events to trade tactically, is likely to take activity and volatility further down.





... the election of Mr. Macron as president, combined with a potential hung parliament would leave in place long-held concern about reform, but remove acute risks that provided shorter-term trading opportunities. As long as short-term events bring about temporary relief and long-term risks, volatility is likely to remain depressed, but prone to sudden bursts.



* * *


Deutsche Bank"s director of FX strategy, Sebastien Galy, has chimed in with a similar tak saying that while EUR/USD will likely gap higher, looking to clean out the stop losses,  before eventually consolidating lower. He adds that equity flows are likely to increase into the euro zone,‎ but that will take time as much is already priced in.


* * *


Expect more sellside commentary as analysts react to the initial results.


Here is another live feed, this time from the Telegraph:

Sunday, May 7, 2017

Belgian Press: Macron Has Between 63% And 64% Of The Vote

While French pollsters and poli-pundits are prohibited from providing "hot-takes" or preliminary exit-polls ahead of the closing of polls at 8pm local time, the Belgian press is not similarly constrained, and according to L"Echo, citing early exit polls, Macron would win the vote with between 63% and 64% of the vote, while empty ballots would represents about 10%.



The Belgian newspaper adds that, as noted earlier, according to figures from the Ministry of the Interior, the participation rate in metropolitan France at 5pm amounted to 65.30%, the lowest participation rate in decades. It also adds that the abstention rate in today"s vote is expected to reach 25% to 27% on the day.


Still, as the Telegraph cautions, while it was thought that Mr Macron could build a larger voting base than Ms Le Pen - as he was expected to mop up votes in the second round from those who support mainstream Right and Left candidates in the first - it appeared last night that a large number of supporters for the conservative, Francois Fillon, and the far-Left Jean-Luc Melenchon stayed home on election day.  And a vast number chose to spoil their ballots or abstain at the polls - as many as 29% of voters, according to one estimate.


Furthermore, take such early forecasts with a grain of salt. As Bloomberg"s European analyst Maxime Sbaihi writes, "French authorities" warning: no "reliable" estimate can be made before 7.45pm. Don"t trust what you see before that."



He also provides the following breakdown of how to read the final score:


How to interpret #Macron"s score tonight?


  • bad < 55% < weak < 60% < fair enough < 63% < landslide < 65% < plebiscite

How to interpret #LePen"s score tonight?


  • 45% > success > 40% > passable > 37% > meager > 35% > FN mutiny

* * *


Some other highlights: a timelapse clip showing a Paris polling station:



The Telegraph also reports that Libération newspaper says it is boycotting the electoral events of Marine Le Pen this evening - whether she wins or loses - in solidarity with other French and foreign media outlets who have been refused access to them.


The left-wing daily says it will not carry any coverage of the events, during which Ms Le Pen is due to make a speech after the election results are announced, because the Front National has refused access to the gathering in a park in the east of Paris tonight to about a dozen media organisations. "These anti-democratic measures, which are also contrary to the right to keep the public informed, must stop, as must the intimidation of journalists in (Le Pen) political rallies," wrote senior Libération editor Johan Hufnagel.

Why Charles Gave Expects "Total Mayhem" In France Even If Macron Is Elected

Venerable French investor Charles Gave has been managing money and researching markets for over 40 years; as such France’s elder statesman of asset allocation perhaps best captures the mood ahead of the most crucial Presidential election in a generation. In conversation with Dr. Pippa Malmgren, Charles breaks down national politics to understand why voters have rejected the establishment and the market impact of both outcomes, and what to expect from tomorrow"s election.


First, Gave, who says "I"m not so sure that Macron will win", is asked by Malmgren to walk RealVision viewers through what Macron"s agenda would look like in case of a victory. Gave is unable to do so for several simple reasons:





Well, first, nobody knows. Because during the whole campaign, all these talks were on one hand, on the other. I"m in favor of apple pie, and motherhood, you see. Basically he has, to my knowledge, very little program. So he"s running. That is what Hollande said. That he was going to make some fundamental changes without hurting people. And so Macron is a big, empty suit. That"s what he is. You did the right curriculum vitae, he went to the right schools. And you have the feeling that the guy never had an original idea in his life. He was always a good student.



And moreover, there is a strong suspicion that he"s a kind of golem created by Hollande and all these guys. So since they knew they were going to lose the election, they created a guy in a hologram that would run for them and prevent them from losing power. So to a certain extent, the French political system has been captured by what you can call the Technocratic class. And whether from the left or the right, it didn"t make any difference. And this Technocratic class is presenting Macron as a brand new fellow. He is nothing brand new. These guys have been in power for 50 years for God"s sakes. So this is basically nothing.



Gave is then asked for his take on the market"s reaction, first to the outcome which now appears to be fully priced in, i.e., a Macron victory. The French investor"s response should be concerning to those who believe France is in for a period of calm and stability.





If Macron is elected, as I already said, I"m not sure it"s not going to be a triumphant election. So I"m not sure they will have that much legitimacy at first. And second thing is that just after, we have the election for the French Parliament. And then it"s going to be a total mayhem. Because you have four main different currents in France. The extreme left, the Macron left, you see? You have the Fillon right, and you have Le Pen"s right. So you have four. The way it"s done before is that you had only three. Extreme left and the left were joined. And you had the election, you had three guys, and if anyone from the Front National had any chance of being elected, then the worst position of the other two retired. Right away. And said, you must vote for my usual enemy, but we don"t want to. It’s what’s called the Front Republic.



But you see, it"s kind of easy to organize if the organization of the parties are very strong and can force people to retire and to stop running. But if you have four, the organization of the parties having lost all credibility, then nobody is going to retire. Until we are going to have elections. And you could have a majority of MP"s from the Front National The majority of MP"s from Melenchen. Anything is possible. So the fact that Macron is elected doesn"t reduce at all. Not at all. The political risk in France. It may reappear at the election time, big time. So anybody who buys on the idea that the problem is solved in France, let’s move to the next one will have to wait till the middle of June.



Alternatively, what if Le Pen wins:





If Le Pen wins, it"s pretty simple. The bond market in France, Italy, Spain cannot open on Monday morning. And I suppose the euro is dead in the following week. And then you have to buy Europe like crazy. Southern Europe.



Why Southern Europe? Because it is Germany"s markets that would bear the brunt of the selloff, as the dissolution of the euro and European Union would effectively bring about the end of Germany"s economic hegemony (while at the same time benefitting France).





The Germans have made a colossal mistake, which is that they have all the production in Germany. So they"re extremely efficient, well-organized, and they have developed massive current account surpluses. Half of that surplus is in cars. The margin on cars is around 4%. Imagine that the euro breaks down. The deutschmark comes back. The deutschmark goes up 15, 20%. And the whole German industry, all the production base in Germany, becomes bankrupt in no time at all. Compare that to France. France we have magnificent big companies that have been intelligent enough to produce everywhere in the world, to operate from everywhere in the world, and be totally independent from what"s happening in France. What they have in France is their headquarters. And that"s about it. So if Europe breaks, you should be long France on the stock market, and short Germany. Big time.



Would a Le Pen victory also mean the end of the EU? Gave answers:





I wrote a book in 2002, sometime around then, called "Lions Led by Donkeys in France." It was kind of a bestseller. And I made the point in the book that the euro is going to destroy Europe, the European institutions. And I said, we must get rid of the euro to save Europe. So name of the game, if we have some kind of a crisis like that, is to basically close the market for three weeks and organize an orderly dismembering of the euro. But to maintain what has been good so far, which is the kind of common market. And it"s a difficult call because the movement towards the euro was also a movement to create a European nation.



And so the institutions today are basically federal in nature. But nobody in Europe has ever voted for them. So to a certain extent, the guys with power in Brussels have not been elected by anybody, and you cannot fire them. So it"s totally Technocratic. So we have a hell of a problem. We should not only destroy the euro, but should move back to what Europe was in 1988 or 1987 before they put all these Federalist legislations in. That is going to be a tall order. But if the euro disappears and Europe has a problem, then the negotiating between the UK and Europe is going to be amusing. Because UK is going to say, look, who are we going to negotiate with?



Finally, on his big picture thoughts ahead of tomorrow"s decisive election:"it"s going to be a close call, a lot closer than people think. And then we have the elections afterwards, which are going to be a total gamble." Gave adds that in a sense Le Pen has already won because the "worst case scenario" for her, the 2022 elections, is still achievable. As for the parliamentary elections, "Le Pen could have anywhere between 40 to 100 MP"s (she currently has two).... which would be a total disaster for the ruling class."


In other words, even if Macron triumphs on Sunday, "the National Front isn"t going anywhere." Furthermore, Le Pen"s niece Marion Le Pen is poised to inherit the mantle of party leadership in time for the next presidential election in 2022. The younger Le Pen, already a French MP, would have a distinct advantage over her astringent aunt:





Marion, she"s very young. She"s 27, 28. She"s an MP in the French Parliament. She"s extremely pretty. And she represents what"s probably very good in the French Catholic Right. She"s very much a Christian person. Very much so. So a lot of people have problems voting for Mrs. Le Pen today. A lot of the Fillon"s elector would have absolutely no problem voting for Marion, you see what I mean? So she has a big appeal on the Classical French Right. Big one. Big one.



His parting words:"be careful. If she wins, you will have a disaster in the lot of the European bond market. Doesn"t mean a total disaster for the good quality companies. But the risk is not on the stock market. The risk is on the bond market. So be careful. Don"t overstay on the bonds in Europe."


While these are the core excerpts from the interview with Charles Gave, there is much more in the full 40 minute version found on RealVision TV.


Monday, May 1, 2017

Path To Le Pen Victory: What Would It Take?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,


Recent opinion polls for round two of the French election on May 7 show Emanuel Macron with 59-60% and Marine Le Pen 40-41%.


Le Pen is trending up from April 24 results that were as low as 36-37%.


Still, Le Pen has a long way to go. Can she close the gap? How?


French Election Polls



The above from French Election Polls on Wikipedia.


Results show the two candidates combined only got 45% of the vote in the first round. Apathy and distrust are strong.


Political Ambush


On Wednesday, April 27, Macron met with striking Whirlpool workers at a planned event in Amiens, Macron’s hometown. In a surprise political ambush, Le Pen showed up first and was greeted with cheers and selfie opportunities.



Macron Faces Hostile Crowd



The most recent poll show Macron falling below 60%. There may be more fallout from the ambush coming up. Even if one believes that support for Le Pen is a bit understated, picking up another 7-9% is a tough act to expect.


Close the Gap? How?


It’s possible Le Pen closes the gap, in a roundabout way: abstentions. Eurointelligence explains.





The researcher Serge Galam confirms what we suspected all along: it does not take much for Marine Le Pen to win if voters abstain. Galam looked into what it takes for her to win under different abstention scenarios. He starts with the vote intentions as suggested by the polls, 42% for Le Pen and 58% for Emmanuel Macron. Then, if 90% of the FN voters go to vote but only 65% of those for Macron, Le Pen would end up winning with 50.07%. For Macron the threshold to win is thus 65.17%. This threshold is even higher the closer the two get in the polls. Assuming Le Pen wins two points in the polls and gets 44% of voters intentions, then the threshold for Macron would be 70.71%. So for 2 extra points in the voters intentions for Le Pen the barrier for Macron to win rises by 5 percentage points. We know that the voters behind Le Pen are much more loyal and steadfast than the votes for Macron. Many backed Macron unenthusiastically to block Le Pen. Since the first round, there is a clear rise in aversion against Macron. The absence of a clear backing from Mélenchon and the hashtag #SansMoiLe7Mai on twitter give solidarity to those who consider abstaining, Le Figaro explains. Students from schools and universities mobilized yesterday for a ni-ni: a no to Le Pen and her nationalism, and a no to Macron as a “boss”.



Ni-Ni Mobilized, SansMoiLe7Mai


A ni-ni is “neither nor”. SansMoiLe7Mai translates as “Without Me May 7”.


Abstentions



An amazing 71-80% of those who supported Benoît Hamon are for Macron, with as low as 1% for Le Pen. But Hamon only received 6.36% of the vote in round one.


Jean-Luc Mélenchon received 19.58% of the vote while François Fillon received 20.01%. Those are the votes that will matter most. It is difficult to judge the likelihood of that combined 39.58% block of disenfranchised voters does indeed vote in round two.


Looking at the first set of polls at the top, somewhere between 17% and 29% of the electorate plans to abstain. The average of 22%, 29%, and 17% is 22.67%. Those abstainers are already factored into the 59-41% poll estimate for May 7.


Voting Intention Averages


  • On average, 39.33% of Mélenchon supporters claim they will abstain. 39.33% of 19.58% is 7.66%.

  • On average, 30.67% of Fillon supporters claim they will abstain. 30.67% of 20.01% is 6.14%.

  • On average, 24.33% of Hamon supporters claim they will abstain. 24.33% of 6.36% is 1.55%.

Curiously, the combined abstainers from the Mélenchon plus Fillon plus Hamon camp is only 15.35% whereas the average overall abstention percentage is 22.67%.


That margin says suggests there is an extra pool of voters who intend to sit this out. Assuming Le Pen supporters are more enthusiastic, the extra block of abstainers must come primarily from those who voted for Macron but now intend to sit it out.


Determining Questions


  1. Will enough weak Macron supporters turn up to vote?

  2. Will the “ni-ni” campaign have an impact that does not show up in the polls?

  3. Is there a pool of Le Pen supporters who simply do not tell pollsters their intention?

  4. Will Macron’s Whirlpool gaffe be a factor?

To win, Le Pen needs to capitalize on Macron’s gaffe. She also needs low turnout and a ni-ni impact that affects Macron more than it does her.


This is an uphill battle, but possible, and more likely than most expect.

Saturday, April 15, 2017

Le Pen Faces Disaster In Election After "Monumental" Computer Error

Despite leading in the polls for Round One, The Express reports that a monumental computer blunder could cost Marine Le Pen the French general election as 500,000 citizens living outside of France have the chance to vote twice.



The election has become extremely close with just 4.5 percentage points separating Macron, Fillon, Mélenchon, and Le Pen...



Which is why this shocking error in election procedures could be the swing to crush Le Pen"s hopes. As The Express reports, half a million people received duplicate polling cards in the post, which would allow them to cast two votes at the first round of the election, held on April 23.


French authorities confirmed they would not be investigating the potential electoral fraud until AFTER the election, when retrospective prosecution may take place.


We are sure this is a simple "accident", but coincidentally (for the establishment), this could crush Ms Le Pen’s dreams of surging to power, as most French nationals living outside of their country are not right wing - demonstrated by the fact many feel they depend on the European Union (EU) to guarantee their stay in foreign countries. Far left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who has surged in the polls recently and threatens to break into the leadership race against Ms Le Pen and Mr Macron, could also benefit from this catastrophic error.



As one French citizen noted:





“This year, this is the first time I have asked myself the question, would I take advantage of this anomaly to vote twice? My candidate was low enough in the polls.”



Voting twice is a crime, but police will only find out if they run a check on the individual through their computer systems.


France’s Interior Ministry has said it will not be invalidating the election because of the duplicate voting glitch.


Democracy, eh?