Putin, Trump, And "My Guy" Macron

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

France"s president is lauded in the media for talking tough with his Russian counterpart, but behind the hype may be signs of a new alignment...

The three-hour face-off between Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron in Versailles offered some fascinating geopolitical shadow play.

Macron went so far as to say that, “No major problem in the world can be solved without Russia.” On Syria’s war, which topped their agenda, he said it needs “an inclusive political solution.” While on terrorism, his guest offered: “It is impossible to fight a terrorist threat by dismantling the statehood of those countries that already suffer from some internal problems and conflicts.”

That’s hardly straight from the standard establishment playbook. More like a slight variation on 300 years of Franco-Russian diplomacy.

Putin and Macron got together to inaugurate an exhibition at the Grand Trianon in Versailles, in partnership with the Hermitage in St Petersburg, celebrating the 300th anniversary of Peter the Great’s visit to France – which proved one of the founding stones of a complex cultural-political cross-fertilization.

Peter not only drew on the royal palace of Versailles as part of the inspiration for his new capital, St Petersburg, he also modernized the entire empire using many of the Enlightenment ideals that first took root in France. It was under Peter’s rule that Russians were indelibly imprinted with a European identity.

Connections with current geopolitical juncture enhance the Versailles face-off’s appeal.

The St Petersburg Economic Forum – where quite a few CEOs from large European companies will be discussing business in Russia – starts later this week.

Late last week, a Nato summit in Brussels and a G7 summit in Taormina busted open deep divisions in the Western front, essentially pitting the EU against Donald Trump.

To say that the vast EU bureaucracy has been horrified is an understatement. In places like the Egmont – the Royal Institute for International Relations in Brussels – the consensus might best be summarized as: Europeans would only matter if they put in a US$100 billion order for US defense equipment (each, of course), and stopped whining about the climate.

As this is not happening, the letter of the law is that every Nato member must spend 2% of GDP on defense, and “bad, bad” Germany should stop selling cars to the US.

No wonder then that a common European viewpoint is begging to emerge after some serious discussions inside the EU, which is that the only way out is for Europe to get its act together – politically, economically and militarily.

And it’s up to the Franco-German power couple to show the path to the region’s real strategic autonomy.

That’s the gist of the extraordinary statement by Chancellor Angela Merkel: “The times in which we can entirely depend on others are gone. This, I have experienced in the last few days. We Europeans must take our destiny in our own hands.”

This would suggest that not only are there a few icebergs blocking the Atlanticist channels, there must also be a serious reappraisal under way of Europe’s relationship with Russia. (There are no significant German or French business interests that want sanctions against Russia to persist.)

Merkel could not have gone out on this limb unless she was fully supported domestically, and prepared to position the economic might of Berlin at the vanguard of this “Reformation.”

And that’s really the big story following the show of irrelevance at the G7 in Taormina.

Which is where Emmanuel Macron comes in.

All hail the Philosopher King

The supine French media – largely controlled by a handful of banking, financial and telecom interests – has gone ga ga over Macron’s handling of what is a de facto “presidential monarchy.”

Only the terminally naïve would deny that Macron was the candidate of globalized Atlanticist elites in thrall to the diktats of the financial system. As a bonus, he also dutifully follows the standard Russophobia – as in his charges against Moscow of pursuing a “hybrid strategy, combining military intimidation and an information war.”

Macron was skillfully sold as an “outsider” – yet he is backed by the ultimate French insider A-list. Its members include the Rothschilds; the Montaigne Institute; the Saint-Simon Foundation; the Terra Nova think tank; insurance giant AXA; Jacques Attali; Alain Minc; LVMH boss Bernard Arnault (also a media tycoon); and telecom and media billionaire Patrick Drahi.

He is, according to an elite insider cited by Le Monde, a fantasy come true for members of Le Siècle – the premier elite club in Paris: “A left-winger implementing a pro-business policy.”

Nuances make “project Macron” even more attractive. Because he studied philosophy and was an assistant to the revered Paul Ricoeur, Macron has been extolled as a Philosopher King in the Platonic tradition. And that was even before his show-stopping initial performance on the global stage – yes, the Alpha Male Handshake Battle with Trump.

It gets quirkier. Ecstatic intellectual Macronites even attest he combines the burning ambition of Alcibiades – a precociously talented Athenian general with a penchant for political maneuvering – with the wisdom of Socrates. Well, at least Macron seems to prefer reading to tweeting and being fed one-line bullet points by his minions.

It’s always enlightening to remember that the Philosopher King, as Plato conceived it, was not exactly a democrat. After all, Plato considered “the people” as something like a “huge beast,” filled with irrational passions, and unworthy of comparison with the demonstrative knowledge espoused by a lover of ideas.

Macron’s unbridled – Platonic? – ambition should not be underestimated. Putin, a master of cunning, did detect it in Versailles. Trump tried to charm him, calling Macron “my guy” in the presidential race. Macron, described by his circle as supremely confident, is sure he may be able to charm/bend Merkel – arguably a decaying quantity – into a “Leader of the West” Philosopher King role.

No wonder Macron is an EU superstar. He is seen as a savior because he embodies their ultimate wishful thinking that one day, inside the EU, inside the UN, in the G7, and even in Nato, globalized Europeans will be undivided on defense, trade, foreign policy – and their own interests.

Kushner Role In White House Suddenly Unclear; May "Return To Private Life"

In the first segment of Friday night"s "Trump bombshell" report published almost at the same time by Reuters and the WSJ, anonymous sources reported that Trump is preparing a "war room" upon his Saturday return from Europe, to "combat negative reports and mounting questions about communication between Russia." We did point out some discrepancies: on one hand, Reuters said that Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner (who subsequently WaPo reported was trying to set up "backchannels" with Russians in the second Friday night long-weekend bombshell) were coordinating the "war room" and the White House"s new messaging effort, which also aims to push Trump"s policy agenda and schedule more rallies with supporters. On the other hand, contradicting Reuters, WSJ reported that neither Bannon nor Kushner were safe in the upcoming White House spring cleaning overhaul.

Now, one day later and with the latest Kushner story published, the WaPo has also chimed in on the alleged "war room" story with some additional details. While the gist of the story is the same, and is a recap of what is already known, including:

• "the White House plans to far more aggressively combat the cascading revelations about contacts between Trump associates, including Jared Kushner"


• "White House officials are also trying to find ways to revive Trump’s stalled policy agenda in Congress and the way the White House communicates with the public"


• "beefed-up operation could include the return of some of Trump’s more combative campaign aides, including former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, who was fired nearly a year ago, and former deputy campaign manager David N. Bossie, who made his name in politics by investigating Bill and Hillary Clinton for two decades"


• "a diminished role for embattled White House press secretary Sean Spicer"


• "White House counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway has been involved in related talks, including with prominent Trump backers outside Washington and on Capitol Hill"


• "White House counsel Donald McGahn is mulling expanding his office, and an outside legal team led by Marc E. Kasowitz is readying to meet with Trump and guide him"


• "Lewandowski, who was fired from the campaign amid serious clashes with Kushner and the president’s daughter Ivanka Trump, has also been suggested as an effective messenger"

... what is new is the following detail on the potential future role of Jared Kushner - or lack thereof - who has emerged as the alleged focal point of the FBI"s probe into the White House. Here is what the WaPo reported on Saturday:

Some White House aides have discreetly discussed among one another whether Kushner should play a lesser role — or even take a leave — at least until the Russia-related issues calm, but they have been reluctant to discuss that view with Kushner himself, and Kushner’s network of allies within the West Wing has rallied behind him.

Those close to Kushner said he has no plans to take a reduced role, though people who have spoken to him say that he is increasingly weary of the nonstop frenzy. In recent weeks, the White House also brought on Josh Raffel as a spokesman to handle many of the issues in Kushner’s sweeping portfolio; Raffel works out of a shared office in the West Wing, although he also has space in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building.

As for Priebus, he may be going to Greece:

Underscoring the uncertainty of what lies ahead, some Trump associates said there have been conversations about dispatching Priebus to serve as ambassador to Greece — his mother is of Greek descent — as a face-saving way to remove him from the White House. A White House spokeswoman strongly denied that possibility Saturday.

Still, as with most such pieces, the admission roughly halfway through the report is that the underlying premise is merely speculation... except perhaps for Sean Spicer:

Though no final decisions have been made, one option being discussed is having Spicer — who has been parodied on NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” to devastating effect — take a more behind-the-scenes role and give up his daily, on-camera briefings. On Trump’s foreign tour, Spicer conducted only one briefing, an informal gaggle with the small, traveling press pool. Otherwise, he served more as an emcee, introducing other senior administration officials at more formal briefings.

On Saturday, it was Gary Cohn, the National Economic Council director, and McMaster who headlined the U.S. news conference at the conclusion of the Group of Seven summit in Taormina, Italy. Spicer introduced them and then retired to the corner of the room to watch McMaster and Cohn parry questions from journalists.

Another new detail: Trump"s inspiration for a "war room" comes from Bill Clinton.

Conversations about what some are calling a “war room” have focused on a model similar to what emerged during President Bill Clinton’s tenure to cope with the Monica Lewinsky scandal and other crises. Clinton pulled together a team of lawyers and communication and political aides to deal with those issues apart from the regular White House structure, with the aim of letting other business proceed as normally as possible.

Even so, Trump aides say they have come to the realization that "unflattering stories about Russia will be part of the daily conversation for the foreseeable future and acknowledge that the White House has been ill-equipped to handle them."

The above may Which may explain the deployment of a third aircraft carrier toward North Korea. As a reminder, the "Russia" stories came to screeching halt the day after Trump launced a ballistic missile attack on Syria, only to return with a vengeance after Trump fired FBI Director Comey as a new tide of "sources" emerged.

And speaking of sources, one of the handful of people actually quoted on the record in today"s extensive WaPo piece said something that few can disagree with: “He was given the chance to look presidential and change the pictures on our television screens,” said Timothy Naftali, a presidential historian at New York University. “But it will be harder for him to manage news back at home than abroad. … The worries he had when he left have not gone away. They’ve only gotten worse.”

Indeed, which is why going back to Jared Kushner, the NYT separately reported on Saturday that Kushner "has told friends that he and his wife have made no long-term commitment to remain by Mr. Trump’s side, saying they would review every six months whether to return to private life in New York."

Yet like the WaPo, NYT quotes sources close to the president’s son-in-law as saying that Kushner has no plans to step down from his role as a senior White House adviser. In fact, CNN indicated Kushner “was not going anywhere." He would continue to “focus on his work” and is “eager to cooperate with inquiries," according to reporter Jim Acosta.

While Kushner"s fate remains unclear, a parallel question is if Trump"s son-in-law decides (or is forced to) to depart the White House to take away the heat from Trump, whether Steve Bannon who was largely sidelined as a result of the growing influence of the Kushner/Goldman wing, will make a big return as Trump"s core advisor. With Trump back in the country after a one week hiatus, we expect many of the questions to be resolved shortly.

An Epic Trading Take From Norway

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,

We all know Buffett’s line about sitting around the poker table, but too often, we fail to apply it in our day to day trading or investing. It’s easy to fall for the latest story sweeping Wall Street without thinking about the next move, or who the narrative benefits. I am by no means immune.

The other day one of my astute new readers sent me a note that demonstrated a keen understanding of how markets really work. He didn’t bother with the headline news, but had already calculated the next move. Like a grand chess master, he wasn’t worried about the obvious noise right in front of him. Instead he had accepted that portion of the story, and figured out what that meant for the markets further out in time.

It reminded me so much of one of my favourite stories about trading, I had to share it with you. For those who know me well, they will have heard me tell this tale before, so I apologize in advance. This fable was recounted to me by another trader at my old shop, and I have never been able to verify its legitimacy, but I take refuge in the old line that one should never let the truth get in the way of a good story…

In the mid 1960s, Norway was a regular Scandinavian country, subsisting on an economy centered around agriculture, timber, and fishing. Life was good, but by no means out of the ordinary (apart from all you can-eat-cod buffets).

Then in the summer of 1969, while the rest of the world was focusing on hippy love, a Norwegian off-shore oil driller named the Ocean Viking struck oil in the North Sea. In the next six months, before the decade concluded, it became obvious Norway was sitting on a massive oil resource.

There was a mad scramble to buy off-shore drilling rights. Money poured in, chasing the untold wealth that would be created. Oil company share prices exploded higher. Visions of riches filled the minds of investors. It could be described as the original DotCom boom, only this time with oil companies. The Norwegian government was able to auction off the remaining oil drilling blocks for massive amounts. After all, the market realized Norway was about to become a world leading oil producer.

Into this frenzy, most traders focused on buying companies which would best benefit from this massive wealth creation. However, the market had discounted this new information, and before long, the excitement had created an environment where it was difficult for companies to meet heightened expectations.

And this is where the hero of our story enters. This wise sage sized up the situation, and instead of chasing the headline news, spent some time thinking about how this transformational discovery would affect the Norwegian economy. Practically overnight, Norway had created a raft of millionaires that had been lucky enough to get in early (back then, a million meant something).

Realizing the big money had already been made, and that the market had taken prices to levels that were more gambles than investments, our patient investor decided to focus on the second order trade. He thought about what all this new found wealth would mean for Norway.

And he concluded that once these millionaires became less focused on oil, and more interested in spending some of their new wealth, they would want to buy things. Of course they would buy real estate, maybe some flashy cars, and most definitely some yachts, but they would also buy art.

The art market is a funny thing. There are the renown artists that transcend all countries. That is an international market. But when it comes to smaller countries like Canada, Australia or Norway, the art market is dominated by locals. Few outside of Canada know about the Group of Seven, but there are a couple of dozen wealthy Canadians who compete to own these iconic painters. The prices of these art pieces are directly correlated to the wealth of these elite few.

And our Norwegian investor realized that the same thing would happen in his country. Instead of trying to compete buying oil companies, he quietly started accumulating a large position in Norwegian art. He bought all the best pieces while everyone else was focused on the headline news about the latest oil find.

Of course, in the coming years, the Norwegian art market exploded higher as these new found millionaires competed with each other to own the best of the best. And our shrewd investor was there to show them an offer. After all, by this time, news about Norway’s unbelievably strong art market was all over the papers, and our investor was already thinking about the next trade.

Trading is a tough game. You are competing against some incredibly smart people. I have by no means figured out the formula, but I do know that chasing the obvious headline news is not the answer. I try to always keep my mysterious Norwegian trader’s tale in the back of my mind, and ask myself, what would he do?

Trump's Early Foreign Travel Schedule Unveiled

After two weeks of vigorously signing executive orders, 20 as of February 6, undoing Obama-era regulations, and engaging foreign leaders in often heated exchanges by phone, Trump is gearing up to make offshore visits to, as Axios puts it, "reedem himself as a diplomat" in coming months. According to the AP, his phone call readout reveal significant upcoming overseas travel, "and Europe is the destination."

Some details: "Trump has been burning up White House telephone lines calling his world counterparts and, during those talks, has committed to several trans-Atlantic trips."

He spoke Sunday with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and agreed to attend a NATO leaders" meeting in Brussels in late May. Trump once dismissed the trans-Atlantic military alliance as "obsolete."

Trump spoke with Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni on Saturday and promised to attend a late May summit of the Group of Seven leading industrial nations in Taormina, Italy.

In talks last weekend with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the White House says Trump accepted her invitation to the Group of 20 economic summit in Hamburg, Germany, in early July.

Here is a quick summary of his key upcoming trips courtesy of Axios:

• Brussels: Trump agreed to attend a NATO leaders" meeting in late May, where he"ll have to live down his "obsolete" gibe.


• Italy: Trump promised Italian PM Paolo Gentiloni that he"d attend a late-May summit of G-7 industrial nations in Taormina, Italy.


• Germany: Trump accepted the invitation of Angela Merkel to attend the G-20 economic summit in Hamburg, Germany in early July.


• UK: Trump will attend a state visit extended by Queen Elizabeth II, expected this summer.

Additionally, Trump is expected to receive more foreign leaders in the coming days, starting with Japan"s PM Shinzo Abe on Friday, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu on Feb. 15, and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau sometime this month. It remains unclear if and when Trump will meet with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, who canceled his Jan. 31 visit over disagreement with Trump over who will pay for the wall Trump has pledged to build along the U.S.-Mexico border.