Showing posts with label CAPTCHA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CAPTCHA. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Is This The Most Important Chart In The World?

"This is possibly the most important chart in the world..." As 13D Global Strategy and Research noted:


A breach of the top-line of the channel could signal a major reversal in the multi-decade downtrend in UST bond yields."




So the question is - is an event engineered to slam rates lower, in order to avoid interest expense soaring beyond US government capabilities; or is the event a reaction to over-exuberant bubble-fueled positioning in risk assets?


What is perhaps most worrisome for that channel breakout is that speculative traders have almost never been more net long the long-bond...



In 1998, 30Y yields jumped from under 5% to almost 7% in the next year.


In 2004, 30Y yields extended their drop after peak positioning (from 5% yield to 4%) in the next 3 months.


In July 2016, 30Y yields spiked from 2% to well over 3% in the next 4 months.


So what will happen this time?


Even after one of the worst 3-day steepenings of the yield curve last week, specs failed to cover...



And today bonds are bid further.









Monday, December 25, 2017

"My Eyes Popped Out Of My Head": Ohio Woman Receives $284 Billion Electric Bill

The ‘Nightmare Before Christmas’ has nothing on this.


Due to a processing error made by her local power company, one Ohio woman discovered earlier this month – to her abject horror – that she owed Penelec, her power provider, $284 billion, a figure that’s larger than the combined national debts of Hungary and South Africa.


According to The Eerie Times News, Mary Horomanski discovered the error while she was checking her bill online. Initially, she wondered if the hefty charge was due to her Christmas decorations.


“My eyes just about popped out of my head,” said Horomanski, 58. “We had put up Christmas lights and I wondered if we had put them up wrong."


There was, of course, one small silver lining: According to her bill, Horomanski didn’t have to pay the entire $284,460,000 sum until November 2018. Her minimum payment for December was a relatively paltry $28,156. And Penelec hadn’t turned off her electricity – yet.



Fortunately for Horomanski, the issue was quickly resolved when she texted her son, who contacted the power company and told them about the bill. They confirmed that the sum was an error, and that Horomanski owed much, much less. Her online statement was quickly fixed to the correct amount: $284.46.


A spokesman for the power company said he doesn’t know how the error occurred but that it was obviously the result of somebody accidentally moving a decimal point nine digits to the right.


“I can’t recall ever seeing a bill for billions of dollars,” Durbin said. “We appreciate the customer’s willingness to reach out to us about the mistake."


The incident, Horomanski said, prompted her to ask for a different gift from her son this year.


“I told him I want a heart monitor,” she said.


And with that, the Horomanski’s Christmas was saved.  
 









Monday, December 18, 2017

ESPN President Quits Due To "Substance Addiction"

Amid plummeting ratings, mass job cuts, and constant #resistance, ESPN President John Skipper has finally called it quits from running the so-called sports channel.



Here is Skipper’s statement:


Today I have resigned from my duties as President of ESPN. I have had a wonderful career at the Walt Disney Company and am grateful for the many opportunities and friendships. I owe a debt to many, but most profoundly Michael Lynton, George Bodenheimer and Bob Iger.


 


I have struggled for many years with a substance addiction. I have decided that the most important thing I can do right now is to take care of my problem.


 


I have disclosed that decision to the company, and we mutually agreed that it was appropriate that I resign. I will always appreciate the human understanding and warmth that Bob displayed here and always.


 


I come to this public disclosure with embarrassment, trepidation and a feeling of having let others I care about down.


 


As I deal with this issue and what it means to me and my family, I ask for appropriate privacy and a little understanding.


 


To my colleagues at ESPN, it has been a privilege. I take great pride in your accomplishments and have complete confidence in your colective ability to continue ESPN"s success.



The 61-year-old Skipper joined ESPN in 1997 as senior vice president and general manager of ESPN The Magazine. He was promoted to his current job on January 1, 2012.


Here is what ESPN president John Skipper said in a recent memo to staffers:


"ESPN is about sports... It is not a political organization."



So will that agenda change now?










Monday, December 4, 2017

Watch Live: May And Juncker Make Joint Statement, But "No Deal Today"

With the Irish border issue reportedly resolved, and the Brexit process suddenly progressing unexpectedly smoothly, Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker are set to make a joint statement momentarily, however for those expecting a formal announcement of a deal, don"t hold your breath because as a BBC correspondent just announced:


  • NO DEAL TODAY FROM BREXIT TALKS: BBC

The news sent the pound tumbling:



Live feed below:




And here are the highlights:


  • EU"S JUNCKER: WE HAD A FRIENDLY MEETING WITH UK"S MAY

  • EU"S JUNCKER SAYS IT WAS NOT POSSIBLE TO MAKE COMPLETE DEAL

  • EU"S JUNCKER SAYS IT WILL REQUIRE FURTHER DISCUSSION

  • EU"S JUNCKER SAYS WILL CONTINUE DISCUSSION WITH UK THIS WEEK

  • EU"S JUNCKER SAYS CONFIDENT BREXIT PROGRESS POSSIBLE BY DEC. SUMMIT

  • MAY SAYS HAD A CONSTRUCTIVE MEETING WITH THE EU

  • MAY SAYS IT"S CLEAR EU, UK WANT TO MOVE FORWARD TOGETHER

  • MAY SAYS WILL RECONVENE BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK

  • MAY SAYS SHE"S POSITIVE THEY WILL CONCLUDE THIS POSITIVELY






Monday, November 27, 2017

Nasdaq Slammed As Japanese Media Signals North Korea "Preparing Toward Ballistic Missile Launch"

Update: While the initial reaction to the headlinews were muted, once the story hit Bloomberg wires, USDJPY snapped lower and gold jumped...



 


And as USDJPY fades, so stocks drop (S&P and Nasdaq now red)...



*  *  *


Earlier today, Russia"s deputy foreign minister Igor Morgulov warned that while there is a latent danger of an "apocalyptic scenario of developments" on the Korean Peninsula, he brought attention to the apparent "denuclearization" of the Kim regime, pointing out that North Korea’s last provocation was on Sept. 15, when it fired its second missile over Japan in as many months. The 73-day pause is the longest since a 116-day break between October 2016 and February.


That may soon be changing because according to a tweet from Michiyo Ishida, the Tokyo Bureau Chief for Channel News Asia, the Japanese government has deteced a "signal from #NorthKorea on preparation towards a ballistic missile launch according to local media"



The news has yet to be caught by the major newswires, and as a result there has been no response in either the KRW or JPY crosses, however keep an eye on this story should there be confirmation over the course of the trading day. There is also the possibility that this is merely a trial balloon by Japan"s press meant to incite a nationalist mood and push through Abe"s militant agenda.









Thursday, November 23, 2017

JFK Files Reveal Bobby Kennedy And CIA Plotted False Flag War With USSR

False flag conspiracy theories have arisen from thousands of global tragedies ever since pirates allegedly spawned the term by flying the flag of the home country they were preparing to attack.  Of course, these "conspiracy theories" would be far easier to discredit if they"d stop coming true...


Alas, a recently revealed document from the so-called "JFK Files" will only serve to stoke the flames of conspiracy theorists as it very clearly confirms a plot crafted by then Attorney General Robert Kennedy and the CIA to carry out a false attack that could be pinned on the USSR and serve as a basis for a U.S. "counterattack".


According to a formerly "Top Secret" document summarizing a meeting from March 22, 1962, officials from JFK administration secretly strategized on the best way to "manufacture or acquire Soviet aircraft," including a MIG 17 or MIG 19.  Per the following except, plans ranged from building aircraft that could stand up "distant observation" or "close observation" and ranged in cost from $3.5 million to $22 million.



So what were these replica planes to be used for?  Well, it turns out those details were laid out with some level of specificity as well...that is, if you can get beyond the brilliant efforts at redaction in the excerpt below...








"There is a possibility that such aircraft could be used in a deception operation designed to confuse enemy planes in the air, to launch a surprise attack against enemy installation or in a provocation operation in which Soviet aircraft would appear to attack U.S. or friendly installations in order to provide an excuse for U.S. intervention. If the planes were to be used in such covert operations, it would seem preferable to manufacture them in the United States."




According to the Daily Caller, the meeting was held by the “Special Group (Augmented),” which according to an encyclopedia on the Central Intelligence Agency, included Attorney General Robert Kennedy, CIA Director John McCone, National Security Advisor McGeorge Bundy and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Lyman Lemnitzer. And while not members, President Kennedy and Secretary of State Dean Rusk were said to attend certain meetings as well.


Perhaps it"s time to once again reassess what you "think" you know...


With that, here is the full document:










Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Bahamas Prime Minister Blames US Cable News For Collapse Of Journalism

Over the weekend, Bahamas Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis addressed the Third Annual Press Club Awards Banquet, where he blamed the collapse of journalism standards on 24-hour cable news shows in the United States. He said, the declining of standards “would not have been allowed in previous times” and urged local journalist not to be  “champions of any political party, business, group or interest in a country”.



While addressing the Third Annual Press Club Awards Banquet Munnis said,




This is not a practice that would be allowed by journalists in other countries. I am not speaking here of editorial writing. A journalist and a columnist are distinctly different roles.


 


The 24-hour cable news shows in the United States have in a number of ways led to a lessening of standards that would not have been allowed in previous times. There has been a considerable blurring of reporting and commentary.


 


It is telling when certain standards have been breached, that some in the press do not even realize that a standard has been breached.


 


Journalists are not supposed to be champions of any political party, business, group or interest in a country.




Minnis noted that journalist must report news on a fair and balance perspective while avoiding conflict of interests, adding “the best journalism criticises, celebrates and inspires”. In the United States, that is certainly not the case with 24-hour cable news networks waging an informational war against the American people flooding them in a DDOS style attack of misinformation. The constant bombardment of Russia/Trump collusion stories have sent the trust in television news to record lows.



The Jamaican Observer ends the report by saying,




Minnis said, adding that the press has an essential role in promoting good governance, transparency and accountability.


 


“By pressing public officials for accurate and timely information, the press helps citizens to learn about the decisions being made by a government on their behalf,” he told the awards ceremony.  




It seems as Bahamas Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis and the American people have something in common and it’s the distrust of the mainstream media. The one question we ask mainstream media execs: Was the fake news in the last election cycle worth the credibility loss?









Watch Live: Janet Yellen And Mervyn King At NYU

The NYU Stern school of business is hosting the latest installment of the "In Conversation with Mervyn King" series featuring outgoing Fed chair, ?Janet Yellen, who in just over two months, will depart the Fed, making way for her replacement, former Carlyle partner Jay Powell.


While her speech is not expected to provide any market-moving revelations, it will be one of her last public appearances, and as such she is expected to give her perspective on the "4 rate hikes in 2015" fiasco, how central-planning and bubble blowing has changed over the past 4 years, and also her outlook on how this entire experiment in monetary insanity ends.


Enjoy.










Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Watch Live: AT&T, Time Warner Respond To DOJ Anti-Trust Lawsuit

Update (5:40 pm ET): In a statement, AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson vowed to fight the DOJ"s lawsuit. He said AT&T"s challenge is about preserving the rule of law against an overreaching DOJ anti-trust division. He also said that, while he doesn"t know for sure if the opposition is political in nature, he"s not surprised that the question of whether this is a political vendetta keep coming up.


He also vowed that AT&T wouldn"t divest Turner Broadcasting and CNN, calling that "a nonstarter."


"When the government suddenly discards decades of legal precedent, businesses large and small are left with no legal guidepost."


"We have no intention of proposing a solution outside of the bounds of what the rule of law would require."


"There"s been a lot of reporting and speculation whether this is all about CNN. But frankly I dont know. But nobody should be surprise that the question keeps coming up because we"ve witnessed such an abrupt change in the application of anti-trust law here."


"Any agreement that results in us forfeiting control of CNN, whether directly or indirectly, is a nonstarter. We have no intention of backing down from the government"s lawsuit."


A lawyer for AT&T also noted that Trump has been "critical" of CNN. The president of course has repeatedly accused the network of being "fake news."


In response to a reporter"s question, Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes said he would push for the earliest possible court date, adding that the first hearings could begin in 60 days or less.


Watch the news conference live below:



* * *


Update (5:20 pm ET): According to Bloomberg, a Justice Dept official says the govt’s lawsuit to block AT&T’s planned $85.4b purchase of Time Warner wasn’t influenced by President Trump or anyone else in the White House.


Several media outlets, including Buzzfeed, have noted that some executives at the companies are viewing the stipulation as a political barb aimed directly at CNN, which President Donald Trump has frequently demonized as “fake news.”


“The pro-business, pro-commerce Republican administration objects to a vertical integration with 40 years of legal precedent,” said one executive familiar with the negotiations.


* * *


Update (4:50 pm ET): Court documents have confirmed that the DOJ is suing to block the AT&T-Time Warner deal, according to several US media organizations...


 



 


The DOJ has released a brief statement: “This merger would greatly harm American consumers. It would mean higher monthly television bills and fewer of the new, emerging innovative options that consumers are beginning to enjoy,” said Makan Delrahim the head of the department’s antitrust division.


As Reuters pointed out, the legal challenge was expected after AT&T rejected a demand by the Justice Department earlier this month to divest its DirecTV unit or Turner Broadcasting.


AT&T and Time Warner are expected to make a joint statement around 5:30 pm ET...


* * *


Update (4:20 pm ET): David R. McAtee II, Senior Executive Vice President and General Counsel at AT&T, has released a statement responding to reports DOJ plans to sue to block its purchase of Time Warner.


In the statement, McAtee says he"s "confident" the courts will side with AT&T..


"Today"s DOJ lawsuit is a radical and inexplicable departure from decades of antitrust precedent.  Vertical mergers like this one are routinely approved because they benefit consumers without removing any competitor from the market. We see no legitimate reason for our merger to be treated differently.  


"Our merger combines Time Warner"s content and talent with AT&T"s TV, wireless and broadband distribution platforms.  The result will help make television more affordable, innovative, interactive and mobile.  Fortunately, the Department of Justice doesn"t have the final say in this matter.  Rather, it bears the burden of proving to the U.S. District Court that the transaction violates the law.  We are confident that the Court will reject the Government"s claims and permit this merger under longstanding legal precedent."


The DOJ Is expected to make a "major statement" about an anti-trust action within the hour. It"s been widely reported that the AT&T-Time Warner merger will be the subject of the statement.


AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson recently said he was never told that selling CNN would be a condition of getting the deal done. But he said that the company was prepared to fight in court to save the deal, if necessary, according to the Financial Times.


“Since the day we announced this we’ve been preparing to litigate this deal,” he said. “We are prepared to litigate now," Stephenson said earlier this month at the NYT"s Dealbook conference.


* * *


Just minutes after the DOJ announced that it would be unveiling a major anti-trust action late Monday, Bloomberg reported that AT&T will be the target of said action (as Amazon sneaks by one more day). Late last year, AT&T announced that it had agreed to buy Time Warner in another controversial merger of content creators and distributors.


The news hammered shares of Time Warner, which dropped nearly 2% as investors realized that the White House is preparing to act on President Donald Trump’s campaign-season threat to block the $85.4 billion merger. Meanwhile, shares of AT&T climbed.



The reports are the culmination of more than a week of sparring over the deal and dealing a major blow to the carrier’s bid to create a media and telecommunications empire, Bloomberg reported. NBC also confirmed the news.


The challenge would derail a deal that had appeared to be sailing toward approval as recently as a month ago. That was before the new US antitrust chief Makan Delrahim took up his position and took over the investigation. During negotiations he pushed for the companies to sell the Turner broadcasting unit or DirecTV, a request that AT&T rejected. Last week, reports emerged that the DOJ had asked Time Warner to sell its Turner Broadcasting unit, which includes cable news network CNN. Later, the DOJ said AT&T and Time Warner had offered to sell CNN if that would cause DOJ to drop its opposition to the deal.









Tuesday, November 14, 2017

White House Considering Mohamed El-Erian For Fed Vice Chair

In what will come as a big surprise to many Fed watchers, moments ago the WSJ reported that among other candidates, Mohamed El-Erian, former deputy director of the IMF, former head of the Harvard Management Company, Bill Gross" former partner at Pimco until the duo"s infamous falling out, and one of the few people who - together with John Taylor - actually deserve the nomination, is being considered for the Fed Vice Chairman role. DJ also added that Kansas banking regulator Michelle Bowman is also being considered. From the WSJ:








The White House is considering economist Mohamed El-Erian as one of several candidates to potentially serve as the Federal Reserve’s vice chairman, according to a person familiar with the matter.


The process of selecting the Fed’s No. 2 official began this month after President Donald Trump nominated Fed governor Jerome Powell to succeed Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen when her term expires next February.



The WSJ adds that there is a broad range of candidates under consideration for post, and that the White House will focus on monetary policy experience for post.


Reportedly, the White House is also considering the nomination of a Kansas banking regulator for a seat on the Fed’s board of governors, according to two people familiar with the matter.








Michelle Bowman was confirmed as the Kansas bank commissioner in January and would be nominated to a spot reserved for a community banker or regulator of community banks. In 2014, Congress reserved one of seven seats on the Fed’s board for a community banker and the position has never been filled.



For those unfamilair, here are some recent perspectives on El-Erian"s recent thoughts:


And some recent notable quotables:


  • "The Fed"s embarked on this beautiful normalization: It has stopped [quantitative easing], it has raised rates, it has declared a path to reduce its balance sheet without disrupting markets and without derailing the global recovery. And I don"t think anybody will want to mess with this beautiful normalization”

  • “We don’t understand very well why inflation is low. And therefore, should inflation be an over-determining factor in monetary policy? On the other hand, how concerned is the Fed about elevated asset prices?”

  • “I suspect the market is too sanguine when it comes to how much central bankers are thinking about the risk of financial instability down the road."






Monday, November 13, 2017

Chipotle Tumbles: "Supergirl" Actor Says He "Almost Died" After Eating At Burrito Chain

Chipotle stock tumbled on Monday on renewed food quality concerns after “Supergirl” actor Jeremy Jordan blamed the burrito chain for making him severely sick. The actor, who plays Winn Schott the show, posted an Instagram story on Thursday from his hospital bed, saying that “the food did not agree with me and I almost died,” according to People.


“I know I’ve advocated for them in the past, but they’re terrible,” says Jordan, who looks fairly pale laying in a hospital bed and showing viewers the IV in his arm.


“I, as you can see, am in the hospital and I have fluids in my arm because the food did not agree with me and I almost died.... I just want to thank my wife for being amazing and talking me off the ledge when I was on the phone about to die and Chris Wood for holding my hair back metaphorically,” he says. “I love all of you; thank you so much. It’s been a night.”



According to People, Jordan, 32, who was set to perform at a ‘salute to Broadway’ concert in Houston on Friday, says he hopes he is okay to go through with the show and has yet to update fans on his current status.


CMG shares fell as much as 4.4% in early trading on Monday, extending what has been a painful rout this year. Two years ago,


The incident will likely renew concerns about food safety at Chipotle, which has struggled to bounce back from an E. coli crisis in 2015 that sickened tens of customers.  The company had begun to restore its reputation in the past year, but a norovirus incident in Virginia and a viral video of mice at a Dallas location sparked a fresh round of negative headlines.


Chipotle also suffered a data breach earlier this year, an incident that hurt its earnings and contributed to another stock slump. This year’s hurricanes rocked Chipotle as well: It had 425 restaurants in the direct path of the storms.


Concerns about Jordan"s complaint going viral, Chipotle responded to the actor"s claims with the following statement to People:








We are sorry to hear that Jeremy is sick and have attempted to get in touch with him directly regarding where and when he ate so we can look into this. We take all claims seriously, but at this time we can’t confirm any link to Chipotle. We are always committed to making things right for our guests and will do the same for Jeremy when we are able to reach him.”



If the stock price reaction to the denial is any indication, Chipotle will have to try much harder...










Friday, November 10, 2017

Steve Keen: How I Sold Out To The Putin-Soros-Murdoch Conspiracy To Destroy Western Civilization

Authored by Steve Keen via RT.com,


I was delighted to find myself in the Top Ten (alright; top 15) of the European Values list of 2,326 “Useful Idiots” appearing regularly on RT shows, and thus legitimizing Vladimir Putin’s attempt to destroy Western civilization as we know it.



Why delighted? Because it completes the set of conspiracies to which I can now be accused of belonging. They include:



  • The Putin Conspiracy, since I am regularly interviewed on Russia Today (and even worse, I now get paid to write for RT!);




  • The Soros Conspiracy, since my research, has been funded by the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) which he established;




  • The Murdoch Conspiracy, since I appear every week on Sky News Australia with Carson Scott, and I used to get paid by News Ltd to write a weekly column; and




  • The Alt-Right Conspiracy, since I’ve signed a book contract with Vox Day’s publishing firm Castalia House.




So not only am I a “useful idiot,” I’m a useful idiot for four contradictory conspiracies. Does that make me a double-double agent?


No, it makes me someone who’s quadruple pissed off with people who attempt to understand the world from the perspective of conspiracy theories in the first place. I don’t deny the existence of conspiracies: in fact, far from it, because they’re everywhere. What I do deny is the implicit assumption that the conspirators understand the system they’re attempting to manipulate.


For example, I’ve heard plenty of conspiracy theorists assert that the 2008 financial crisis was caused by the Federal Reserve/George Soros (Hi George!)/Hedge Funds/Academic-Economists-Who-Peddle-The-Efficient-Markets-Hypothesis, and “they” profited from it.


This implies “they” knew what “they” were doing. Pardon me, but I’ve met many of these protagonists - and in the case of academic economists, I’ve worked with them for 30 years. “They” don’t have a clue (except George). Even those that were actively conspiring—like many hedge funds during the subprime bubble were doing so on the basis of utterly deluded theories about how the system they were trying to game actually worked. Where apparent conspiracies did work, like Soros’s punt against the British Pound decades ago, they did so because a CSP (Clever Sinister Person) bet against the conventional wisdom of others who thought they understood the system (and did not), rather than because the CSP set up the whole thing in the first place.


Higher standards


As for the argument that I’m unwittingly playing into Vladimir Putin’s malevolent plans for Western democracy by being interviewed on RT, I have three rebuttals.


The first and most important is that RT simply has better programs and better journalists than, for example, the BBC.


I would gladly discuss issues such as what caused the 2008 economic crisis on the BBC, were I asked. But the BBC (and most other Western outlets that European Values and other conspiracy theorists think are superior to RT) just isn’t interested in the issues. With precisely two honorable exceptions, BBC programs and its journalists have only been interested in a story involving me when there was a personality angle to it.


I have been interviewed by the BBC 11 times since I arrived in the UK in mid-2014. Only two interviews were motivated by the journalist’s or program’s genuine interest in my non-orthodox approach to economics: a HARDtalk interview in August 2016, and an interview by Alice Baxter in January 2016.


Fully six were about my friend Yanis Varoufakis when he was Greece’s finance minister.


Two others were on November 3rd, 2016, about some news story that I’ve since forgotten.


And my most recent interview on the BBC, on September 14th this year to mark the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Northern Rock, was the clincher for me. That failure was the most significant financial event in the UK in almost eighty years: it was the first bank run since the Great Depression. I was pleased to be asked to discuss it on air, and I expected a serious treatment of it.


Instead, the item consisted of a two-minute introduction by one presenter, and a three-minute exchange with another which rates as one of the most vacuous interviews I’ve experienced in forty-five years of being interviewed by journalists (my first was as a 19-year-old politically active student at the University of Sydney in 1972). I did my best to answer inane questions seriously, but as one member of my Patreon community commented, you could see my answers parting the journalist’s hair. That was a cruel remark, but frankly a fair one.


BBC vacuum


Which raises the second riposte: why aren’t there shows that are interested in the in-depth analysis of economic issues on the BBC? Shows like the RT staples on which I was and continue to be interviewed regularly: Capital Account, the Boom Bust, the Keiser Report, Renegade Inc, the 7pm News with Bill Dod, and Going Underground.


It’s not because the programs were devised by dastardly Russian stooges: most of them were developed by independent broadcasters and pitched to a number of outlets. I know for a fact that at least one of these shows was pitched to the BBC before it was offered to RT. They weren’t interested, but RT was.


This isn’t because the BBC - and most Western media outlets - were too highbrow for these programs: the opposite is more the case. The BBC and its commercial rivals seem more interested in infotainment than analysis, more concerned with filling time with fancy graphics and pretty (male and female) talking torsos, than in actually getting to grips with the serious economic issues in a seriously challenging world.


The third rebuttal, which I’ll develop in more depth in a later column, is that if I can help strengthen Russia as a rival axis of power to the USA, then I think that’s a good thing. I’d rather have a bipolar (or tripolar) battle for global dominance between two (or more) Superpowers, than have a unipolar world with a single Superpower, led by a leader with a bipolar personality.









Polish Government Advises Couples To "Breed Like Rabbits"

Authored by Mike Shedlock via www.maven.net/mishtalk,



In order to counteract one of Europe"s lowest birth rates, the government of Poland put out a pair of videos urging citizens to breed like rabbits.





Rabbit Video Number One






 





Rabbit Video Number Two






 





Eurostat Estimated Population Trends















Population estimates are 2017 Eurostat projections, in thousands.


Eurostat expects 10 countries will lose population by 2040. Poland is in 7th place.








In general, the demographic trends in Eastern Europe are very poor.












Saturday, November 4, 2017

"The S&P Is Up 21% Since Trump"s Election" And Other Market Anniversary Observations

November 8 will mark the one year anniversary of one of the biggest political shocks in US history: the election of Donald Trump. Since that improbable victory, which so many experts had said would lead to a market crash, the S&P 500 has soared by 21% according to Goldman which calculates that the Trump rally so far ranks as the fourth-best 12-month gain following a presidential election since 1936, trailing only Bill Clinton (1996, 32%), John F. Kennedy (1960, 29%), and George H.W. Bush (1988, 23%).



Of all sectors, the biggest beneficiaries from Trump"s election were Financials and Information Technology, which have powered the market with returns of 37% and 39%, respectively. Given its large weighting, Tech contributed 37% of the index gain. Alongside the relentless stretch of all time highs in the S&P, the rise in the index has also been characterized by the lowest volatility in 50 years and has seen just one month in which it did not record a gain (March, -0.04%) although on a total return basis, the S&P has been up every single month since the election, and as Deutsche Bank observed last wek, the S&P has seen a positive total return for all 10 months so far this year, the first time on record. Additionally, October marked the 12th positive month in succession, which equals the record set in 1949-1950 and 1935-1936. This means the S&P has not had a single month of negative total returns since Trump was elected almost exactly one year ago.



Courtesy of Goldman"s Kostin, here are some other observations:








  • Trump’s election also rippled through the performance of global equity markets. Following allegations of Russian interference in the US presidential election, equity investors initially appeared to believe Mr. Trump would herald a thawing of relations between the two countries. The MICEX index surged by 13% between the US election and the end of 2016 while the S&P 500 rose by just 5%. However, MICEX then plunged by 16% during 1H 2017 before rebounding during the last three months to bring the post-election local currency return to 5% (15% in USD terms). Most foreign equity markets have benefitted from an upswing in global growth. Among major markets, MSCI China has shined, rising 40% in the last year.

  • Perhaps the most notable of the many so-called “Trump trades” has been the rise of companies with the highest small and medium business exposure. The median stock in this basket generates 71% of its sales from small-and-mid-sized business customers. Small business owners have been thrilled at the prospect of deregulation under the Trump administration. Following the election, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index leaped to the highest level in more than 12 years. The share prices of firms deriving revenues from small businesses have rallied by 38% since the election while the Russell 2000 small-cap index has matched the performance of large caps (see Exhibit 2).


  • The performance of high tax-rate stocks has been more complicated. The sector-neutral High Tax basket contains 50 S&P 500 stocks with the highest 10-year median effective tax rates (38% compared with 30% for the median S&P 500 stock). These are the firms most likely to experience positive EPS estimate revisions if corporate tax rates are cut. The basket jumped by 5% immediately following the election, but the relative performance has more than reversed since then, falling by 9% (Exhibit 4).

  • The High Tax basket’s performance this year has been influenced by exposures other than tax sentiment, notably the US dollar. Because one method that US firms use to reduce their tax burdens is keeping earnings overseas, companies with the highest tax rates also tend to have the highest domestic business exposure. The median High Tax stock generates 84% of sales domestically vs. 73% for the median S&P 500 firm. A weaker USD benefits firms with high foreign sales, and the 6% YTD decline in the trade-weighted USD explains much of the tax basket’s underperformance. Nonetheless, the basket outperformed by 35 bp on Thursday when House Republicans released the details of their tax plan.



What happens next, now that the S&P is just shy of 2,600 - Goldman year end price target for 2019 - depends largely on the fate of the Republican tax plan. According to Kostin, "the Republican tax plan would boost corporate earnings but has a long way to go before becoming legislation."








" The plan would reduce the federal statutory corporate tax rate to 20% from 35%, below the S&P 500 median effective rate of 27%. However, other “pay-fors” would significantly offset the potential boost to earnings – and hit to government revenues – from a lower rate. These include the adoption of a territorial tax system that would effectively place a 10% tax on high profit foreign subsidiaries as well as a tax on some payments to foreign affiliates and a cap on interest deductibility at 30% of EBITDA. This last change would likely have a limited effect on S&P 500 EPS because just three companies accounting for 0.1% of market cap have consensus 2018 consolidated interest expense above that threshold. However, the impact could be greater taking into account intracompany loans that firms deduct against US income. The plan also proposes full equipment expensing for five years, supporting our preference for firms investing for growth rather than buybacks or dividends."


 


The GOP tax plan also includes a one-time tax on previously untaxed foreign profits at higher rates than those in prior proposals. The deemed repatriation would place a 12% tax on overseas cash and a 5% tax on other permanently reinvested foreign earnings (vs. 8.75% and 3.5% in the prior House plan). S&P 500 firms hold $2.5 trillion of untaxed foreign earnings, including $920 billion in cash. Under the newly proposed tax rates, firms would pay a $190 bn tax bill and access $730 bn of remaining overseas cash.



In a nutshell, Goldman places a 65% likelihood on tax reform in Q1 2018, but believes further changes to the plan are likely. Because it will be difficult to find base broadening measures that can pass the House and Senate, Goldman also expects the final corporate tax rate may be 25%.  In summary, the bank estimates that a modified plan with a 25% corporate tax rate could lift its S&P forecast by 7% next year to $148 (15% growth) from $139 (7%). For now however, and with less than 2 months left, Goldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2017 at 2400 (-7.0%).