She"s Back! La Niña Is Here For The Second Consecutive Year

For the second consecutive time in two years, La Niña (translated from Spanish as “little girl”) is back and she means business. New data from Climate.gov indicates La Niña conditions have formed just in time for winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere.

On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center confirmed La Niña after analyzing October ocean temperatures cooling along the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean. La Niña is often declared when sea surface temperatures in the region (just stated) decline by 0.5 degrees Celsius.

John Morales‏, Chief Meteorologist WTVJ NBC-6 Miami, shows the progression of cool water over the equatorial Pacific Ocean responsible for La Niña formation.

For the second consecutive northern hemisphere cool season, we are officially now in a #LaNina as per @NWSCPC https://t.co/wv7pR1lO7h pic.twitter.com/bccFHgwNnf

— John Morales (@JohnMoralesNBC6) November 9, 2017

The cooler waters have an influence on atmospheric conditions by decreasing evaporation in the tropics, which is a major driver of global weather.

According to the Weather Channel,

A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according to the prediction center.

 

The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic also tend to see warmer-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter. New England and the Upper Midwest into New York tend to see colder-than-average temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center /NCEP/NWS Full Report: La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.

During October, weak La Niña conditions emerged as reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The weekly Niño indices were variable during the month, with values near -0.5° C during the past week in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 regions [Fig. 2]. Sub-surface temperatures remained below average during October [Fig. 3], reflecting the anomalously shallow depth of the thermocline across the central and eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Also, convection was suppressed near the International Date Line and slightly enhanced over parts of the Maritime Continent and the Philippines [Fig. 5]. Over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, low-level trade winds were mainly near average, but the upper-level winds were strongly anomalously westerly and the Southern Oscillation Index was positive. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflects the onset of La Niña conditions.

 

For the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Niña is favored in the model averages of the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and also in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) [Fig. 7]. The consensus of forecasters is for the event to continue through approximately February-April 2018. In summary, La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

 

La Niña is likely to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday November 16th). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States.

La Niña weather phenomenon easily explained:

Ben Noll, Meteorologist, National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research of New Zealand, compares the equatorial sea-surface temperatures in 2016 and 2017. His findings indicate 2017 waters “not as large farther west” when compared with 2016. Basically he validates NOAA’s “weaker La Niña” claim...

Compare early November equatorial SSTs in two consecutive #LaNina years.

2016: Coldest anomaly in central Pacific, above normal near South America.
2017: Coldest anomaly near South America, anomalies not as large farther west.

An important difference as we go forward! pic.twitter.com/2fjXfjjVOD

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) November 10, 2017

NOAA’s winter weather outlook indicates normal participation for the mid-tier of the United States. The southern-tier is forecasted to see much drier conditions. Meanwhile, the Great Lakes region and Northwest of the United States appear to have much wetter conditions.

Temperature outlooks for this winter include at-least 2/3 of the United States well above average. Below average to normal in regions, such as the Great Lakes region and Northwest.

Bottomline: What do weather forecasters and Dennis Gartman both have in common?... Well you guessed it– terrible forecasting...

New York City Is Within Hurricane Jose's 5-Day "Cone Of Uncertainty"

In what were perhaps the two biggest news stories of the past month, Hurricanes Irma and Harvey devastated the American south, disrupting local industry, destroying homes and critical infrastructure and dumping millions of gallons of raw sewage onto city streets - leading to the most destructive beginning to hurricane season in years. Meanwhile, cosmopolitan Yankees looked on in horror (with perhaps a touch of smugness) as they watched their southern neighbors being paddled out of flooded Texas homes by national guardsmen, or marooned in the seemingly endless lines of traffic snaking out of southern Florida, northeasterners now have their own storm to worry about.

And now, according to the National Weather Service, those same onlookers might be forced to endure similar hardships thanks to Hurricane Jose, already on its way to becoming a category one storm. Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center say a wide stretch of the eastern and northeastern US, from Maryland up through Cape Cod, is within Jose"s five-day “cone of uncertainty” - meaning that a fully fledged hurricane could make landfall in or around New York City, potentially dealing another crushing blow to the city"s infrastructure after the city"s subway system has not yet finished repairing the damage from Superstorm Sandy, which took place five years ago.

11AM Update on Jose: Much of our area is now in the 5 day cone of uncertainty. Be prepared for potential impacts Tuesday/Wednesday. pic.twitter.com/Qvy502vG8o

— NWS New York NY (@NWSNewYorkNY) September 15, 2017

Presently, the storm is headed northwest at 9 mph past North Carolina, and may bring one to two inches of rain to North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Monday, and heavier rains of two to four inches to Eastern Massachusetts beginning on Tuesday. The large waves from the storm could cause high surf and considerable beach erosion along the shores of the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts during this period, according to Weather Underground.

WU added that there’s an 18% chance of tropical storm-force winds in New York City between Tuesday and Wednesday, said Jeff Masters.

But NWS New York has wasted no time issuing a storm advisory for the northeast, urging east-coast residents to monitor the storm – though, while waves might impact coastal North Carolina, the full impact of the storm remains unclear.

Here are the key messages for #Jose for Advisory 41- East coast of the US from N Carolina northward should monitor https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/XNiGmGu5VG

— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) September 15, 2017

The storm, currently about 360 miles (579 kilometers) northeast of the Bahamas, is expected to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane in the next 48 hours as it moves through the Atlantic Ocean, Bloomberg reports. Jose’s path could put it near New Jersey and New York by Wednesday morning, though it may weaken to a tropical storm again by then, the NHC said.

As Bloomberg notes, the storm may add to an already devastating 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. In 2012, Superstorm Sandy caused $70 billion of damage after hitting the New York metropolitan region.

While Hurricane Harvey temporarily shuttered as much as 30% of the country’s oil-refining capacity, Jose’s impact on energy markets will likely be much more limit – though it could affect five refineries along the East Coast that are able to process about 1.1 million barrels a day of oil, and disrupt tankers carrying crude oil, petrochemicals and refined products along the Atlantic seaboard, “particularly those making deliveries to New York Harbor,” said Shunondo Basu, a Bloomberg New Energy Finance meteorologist and natural gas analyst in New York.

To be sure, some forecasters see Jose staying far enough offshore to avoid any major impact to the US. The NHC’s margin of error for a storm five days away is about 225 miles, on average, according to Bloomberg.

AccuWeather, which correctly forecast the magnitude of the damage that Texas would experience from Hurricane Harvey’s “one-in-a-thousand-year” floods, expects Jose to passing within 200 miles of the northeast - though a landfall in New England – possibly in the Cape Cod area of Massachusetts - during the middle of the week can’t be ruled out, senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said in a statement.

Meteorologists should have a clearer picture of the storm’s path in relation to the US early next week.

Until them, concerned citizens might want to start stocking up on supplies now - just in case. Stores in south Florida started running out of water, gas and other essentials nearly a week before Irma made landfall.

The Working Class Can't Afford The American Dream

For millions of middle- and working-class Americans, the "American Dream" is all but dead.  Far from being able to afford their own homes, the Fed’s latest survey on the wellbeing of US households revealed that nearly a quarter of Americans are unable to pay their monthly bills on time, and nearly half have less than $400 in the bank…

But in what’s perhaps the most comprehensive analysis of the financial security of American workers, a study published by HowMuch.net explores the true cost of living for working-class Americans in dozens of US cities.

What they found is hardly surprising. In most areas of the country, the average working-class household would be running a spending deficit. According to HowMuch’s methodology, the best place to live from a financial perspective on an Average Joe’s salary is Fort Worth, Texas, which would leave a working-class family with a $10,447 surplus at the end of the year. On the flip side, that same family would need an additional $91,184 just to break even in New York City.

To arrive at these scores, the researchers used data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for income levels, the National Bureau of Economic Research for tax data, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture for the cost of food.

Newark, NJ, Chesapeake, VA and Jacksonville, FL are the only coastal cities where a worker can adequately support his family without accumulating debt. Notice there are exactly zero affordable cities on the west coast.

Likewise, San Antonio is the only one of the top 10 most populated cities where a working-class family can afford a decent living. Out of the top 50 cities, only a dozen qualify.

HowMuch illustrates its data in the map below. The darker the shade of red, the worse off the typical working-class family is. The darker the shade of green, the better off they would be. The size of the bubble also fits on a sliding scale—large and dark red means the city is totally unaffordable. Bigger dark green bubbles likewise indicate a city where the working class can get by.

And as you can see, the red is much more prominent than the green.

So where are the best places for working-class families to live? Here are the top five cities with the net surplus wokers are left with after living expenses.

1. Fort Worth, TX ($10,447)

2. Newark, NJ (($10,154)

3. Glendale, AZ ($10,120)

4. Gilbert, AZ ($9,760)

5. Mesa, AZ ($7,780)

And here are the five worst cities, with their associated cost-of-living deficits.

1. New York, NY (-$91,184)

2. San Francisco, CA (-$83,272)

3. Boston, MA (-$61,900)

4. Washington, DC (-$50,535)

5. Philadelphia, PA (-$37,850)

Readers can take a more in-depth look at the data using HowMuch’s True Cost of Living tool, which is available here.
 

Outrage Builds Over Grade-Manipulation Scandal In Baltimore School System

Via StockBoardAsset.com,

Earlier this month, ‘Project Baltimore’, an investigative reporting initiative, which was launched in March 2017, by Sinclair Broadcast Group Inc. uncovered a Baltimore City school with zero students proficient in math and the highest graduation rate in the area.

The school in focus is Northwood Appold Community Academy II, or NACA II, after teachers contacted Project Baltimore saying grades were being change so students can graduate.

The school is located in East Baltimore City, Maryland where nearly 1/3 of African Americans have zero net wealth.

Earlier this week, Project Baltimore Lead Investigative Reporter Chris Papst attended a meeting between the School Board and residents from the community.

In focus was city resident Kim Trueheart, who runs the Liberty Rec and Tech Center in Northwest Baltimore, sat before the board seeking concerns about the brewing scandal Project Baltimore uncovered.

Trueheart told the School Board,

“I’d like to throw out this question. How is the District accountable to the students? What does that look like? And we got a reporter here in the room, right, and he’s reporting on some stuff that just blows my mind,” she told the board.

…and of course Trueheart’s concerns went unanswered… She told Project Baltimore,

“It would have been nice. But our government is generally not responsive to citizens input.”

Per Project Baltimore:

Trueheart watched Monday night as Project Baltimore reported on this test obtained by Fox45. A teacher told us it was given to high school seniors at a Baltimore City School. The test, in part, asked 12th graders to draw a question mark and exclamation point.  

Trueheart’s response….

“I didn’t understand the purpose of that test,” Trueheart told Project Baltimore. “Why would you ask a high school student to sit down and draw an exclamation point?

Here is a copy of the original test….Test Result: 4 correct & 14 wrong.. You do the math 

The racial wealth divide in Baltimore is not just in wealth, but in education and health. Per JPM, 

In Baltimore, people of color are disproportionately affected by local and national trends in employment, income and involvement in the criminal justice system. For the African American community, which is over 60% of the Baltimore population, unemployment is at 14% compared to the White unemployment rate of 3.6% in 2015. There is also strong racial inequality in educational achievement, household income and asset ownership. Unfortunately, Baltimore’s racial inequality mirrors national inequality. These data further illustrate a troubling reality in America, there are millions of people, and particularly people of color, who are living without the means to save or build a basic safety net for financial emergencies, let alone build the wealth needed to lay the foundation for upward mobility

Only 13% of Black adults in Baltimore finish a Bachelor’s degree or higher compared to 51% of White adults

continued per JPM, 

In Baltimore, the relationship between wealth and educational and health outcomes is stark, and even more so when one overlays race. One measure is the number of adults without a high school diploma: among African Americans, the number is just over one in five (21.8%), compared to a little more than one in ten (12.8%) among Whites. This disparity widens in higher degree attainment, with only 13% of African Americans in Baltimore having a B.A. or higher, compared to 51% of Whites.

Educational Attainment… Don’t be shocked 

What is even more shocking is the black business value in Baltimore at $40,000 verse white business value $800,000. Wow, what a gap considering the black population is more than 60% of the city.

Conclusion

The brewing scandal in the Baltimore School System of grade manipulation uncovered by Project Baltimore is part of a much larger topic called the racial wealth divide. Nevertheless, this has all occurred under 50-years of democratic controlled leadership and decades of deindustrialization. The city is absolutely shrinking with population hitting a 100-year low and a homicide rate doubled of Chicago’s.

We have to start somewhere and the first step in solving America’s deteriorating inner cities is simply talking about it. As a country, we are multiple generations away from fixing these structural issues that many ignore, because it will open too many can of worms. Strap in, it’s going to be a turbulent ride.

2 Dead In Police Helicopter Crash Near Charlottesville "Unite The Right" Rally

Update: After addressing the attack in Charlottesville during a press conference earlier in the day, President Trump has tweeted his sympathies to the families and colleagues of the two state police officers killed in this afternoon"s crash: "Deepest condolences to the families & fellow officers of the VA State Police who died today. You"re all among the best this nation produces."

Deepest condolences to the families & fellow officers of the VA State Police who died today. You"re all among the best this nation produces.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 12, 2017

* * *

Update: Virginia State Police have confirmed that two people are dead after a helicopter crashed after a helicopter crashed seven miles southwest of Charlottesville, Virginia, Saturday afternoon. The National Transportation Safety Board and Virginia State Police are investigating the crash.

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, in the latest development coming out of Charlottesville Va., where an as-yet-unnamed assailant rammed a car into a crowd of counter-protesters killing one and injuring 19 others, local media is reporting that a police helicopter has crashed into a wooded area not far from where the “Unite the Right” rally was being held.

Report: Helicopter crashes near golf course in Charlottesvillehttps://t.co/FVfpls2sDk pic.twitter.com/RuqZLIUY7g

— ABC13News (@ABC13News) August 12, 2017

The crash happened around 5 p.m. ET. Video and photos of smoke emanating from the wreckage are just starting to emerge.

Helicopter crash #Charlottesville pic.twitter.com/e9rER6yaMT

— Simon Rader (@Simon_Rader) August 12, 2017

     

     

* * *

A local ABC News affiliate has released audio of the emergency dispatch reporting the helicopter crash...

JUST IN: Initial emergency dispatch audio of reported Virginia State Police helicopter crash in #charlotesville. @ABC7News pic.twitter.com/39zKMyFt14

— Kevin Lewis (@ABC7Kevin) August 12, 2017

MORE SCANNER AUDIO: "ACPD on scene advising it is fully involved, unknown if any souls are still onboard." #Charlottesviille @ABC7News pic.twitter.com/rtJ0EuFTXn

— Kevin Lewis (@ABC7Kevin) August 12, 2017

Check back for updates....
 

Fight: NYC and New York State Should Get Divorced

Via The Daily Bell

Conflicts are inevitable when a city wide government is also beholden to a larger state. In the United States, it is even worse. Local, state, and federal governments claim control of the same land–not to mention individual land owners.

Sometimes the smaller governments want to be left alone and fight for control over their own affairs. But other times they think the larger government should pay for things which only benefit the small locality. They seem to argue, well if we are subjects of their government we might as well get some benefit out of it.

The other day I wrote about how city governments are primed to compete for residents.

China ruins the opportunity for cities under its control to compete for foreign residents. The country implements draconian internet laws across the board, which individual cities or districts cannot nix. The larger government ruins the opportunity for smaller governments to improve.

But what about when the opposite happens?

Cities Control the State

New York State runs the MTA (Mass Transit Authority) which includes the subways in New York City. New York City leases the subways from the MTA and must fund improvements and repairs.

With two sentences of information, anyone can see that there would be no problems if the City and State were not involved in this “partnership.” But since they are, NYC thinks the State should pay for repairs to its crumbling subway infrastructure. The State, you guessed it, thinks the city should pay for it.

Lately, subways have been leaving passengers stranded, getting stuck, breaking down, and arriving late. This is due to a combination of old equipment that breaks, and the highest number of people ever trying to use the subway system.

Each side bolsters their argument by pointing to different pieces of legislation implemented before either Mayor Di Blasio or Governor Cuomo were born.

New York City is home to over 40% of the residents of New York State. On the one hand, 8.5 million city dwellers want 11.25 million other New Yorkers to help pay to fix a public transportation system that they may never use.

On the other hand, those residents of NYC contribute to the state budget as well. The state spending to benefit 40% of the population certainly not the most ridiculous proposition.

You could spend countless hours debating who should pay for what. Then you could listen to an equal number of complaints about which people were exploited in the end, and who walked away fat and happy.

The conflict would never have existed if New York City were independent of New York State. There would be no issue if two different governments did not claim the same jurisdiction, tax the same citizens, and have overlapping and unclear responsibilities for government functions.

Why Are They Grouped Together?

If you include Long Island as part of New York City, then it contains 60% of New York’s population. This means the greater New York City area controls the state government in every election.

If you live outside of New York City of Long Island, you basically have no say in any state wide election. Your local representatives will likewise always be the minority in the state house.

I can’t imagine how terrible it must be to live on a 20-acre farm in upstate New York. Citizens of NYC are voting from the perspective of living with 27,000 people within a square mile. Cities will naturally have more restrictive laws simply based on the high number of people attempting to live in concert.

And if you live in Hamilton County New York, you might have three neighbors within a mile from your home. You live 230 miles from New York City.

Drive over four hours, if you are lucky enough to not hit traffic, and arrive in NYC. 60% of the people who decide the laws you live by dwell here and on Long Island.

Who exactly does this relationship work out for? It doesn’t make any sense for the people of New York City, nor for the people of the rest of New York. You could debate who comes out on top based on where the money flows, or who has a true say in governing. But at the end of the debate, you will have a lot of angry, bitter citizens.

If government is to improve, the future will be marked by decentralization of government. Unifying ever larger territories will only cause disagreements and strife.

Visualizing America's Wealth Inequality (From The Sky Above Baltimore)

Via StockBoardAsset.com,

Earlier this year, JPM’s Racial Wealth Divide Initiative desk released an interesting report titled “The Racial Wealth Divide in Baltimore”. The report highlights the ever so growing wealth inequality that is spreading throughout America’s inner cities, and takes a dive into Baltimore City, Maryland.

If you’ve ever been to Baltimore City, Maryland, there are benches across the entire town that read ‘the greatest city in America’. This is a half truth, because at one point this was true, but not so much today with population hitting a 100-year low according to latest data from the U.S. Census.

Decades of deindustrialization and 50-years of democrat controlled leadership has certainly contributed to Baltimore’s demise. Think of Baltimore as a Hunger Game Society with the ‘Capital’ being the water front and the ‘Districts’ the so called ghettos. The ‘Capital’ is ever-so expanding, but the ‘Districts’ or the ghettos are shrinking. There are nearly 46,800 vacant row homes in the ghettos, where the homicide rate is 2x of Chicago’s…

In JPM’s report, Baltimore’s population is 63% black, 28% white, and 9% other. The median income for a white household is nearly 2x the income of the average black household. Unemployment is nearly 3x higher for the ‘race of worker of color’ with nearly 1/3 having a net worth of zero.

The housing segregation between blacks and whites is visible...

The black population of Baltimore City, Maryland has absolutely been destroyed by 50-years of Democrat controlled leadership.

As Baltimore shrinks, the inverse of vacant structures expands with an interesting correlation of higher homicides.

What I’m about to show you is a unique visualization of America’s wealth inequality through an aerial experience of Baltimore City, Maryland.

In the video, we start 1-mile north in East Baltimore, where the homicide rate is 2x higher than Chicago, and row homes average around $20,000.

I then take you on a +5280 feet adventure into an area where life is great and row homes average $375,000 to >$500,000. In retrospect to distance, 5280 feet is all that divides the poorest and richest of American.

The mainstream news is not allowed to show you this perspective of reality, because it destroys the narrative. Baltimore City’s public relations desk will not show you this because the good PR needs to continue to sucker millennials’ into over priced real estate. 

The more we ignore our inner cities the longer it will take to find solutions.

The sad truth is there are no solutions today, because we wouldn’t be having this conversation. The storm is here and it’s going to get a-lot worse for America’s inner cities before it gets better.

Chris Christie Announces New Jersey Government Shutdown, Orders State Of Emergency

Illinois, Maine, Connecticut: the end of the old fiscal year and the failure of numerous states to enter the new one with a budget, means that some of America"s most populous states have seen their local governments grind to a halt overnight until some spending agreement is reached. Now we can also add New Jersey to this list.

On Saturday morning, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie declared a state of emergency in the state, and announced a partial state government shutdown as New Jersey become the latest state to enter the new fiscal year without an approved budget after the Republican governor and the Democrat-led Legislature failed to reach an agreement by the deadline at midnight Friday, CBS New York reports.

WATCH: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie announces state government shutdown amid budget impasse https://t.co/T5uqoA85rO pic.twitter.com/OHkOHXEl5P

— CBS News (@CBSNews) July 1, 2017

In a news conference Saturday morning, Christie blamed Democratic State Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto for causing the shutdown. And, just like Illinois and Connecticut, Christie and the Democrat-led Legislature are returning to work in hopes of resolving the state"s first government shutdown since 2006 and the first under Christie, before NJ is downgraded further by the rating agencies.

"If there"s not a resolution to this today, everyone will be back tomorrow," Christie said, calling the shutdown "embarrassing and pointless." He also repeatedly referred to the government closure as "the speaker"s shutdown."  Christie later announced that he would address the full legislature later at the statehouse on Saturday.

Prieto remained steadfast in his opposition, reiterating that he won"t consider the plan as part of the budget process but would consider it once a budget is signed.  Referring to the shutdown as "Gov. Christie"s Hostage Crisis Day One," Prieto said he has made compromises that led to the budget now before the Legislature.

"I am also ready to consider reasonable alternatives that protect ratepayers, but others must come to the table ready to be equally reasonable," Prieto said. "Gov. Christie and the legislators who won"t vote "yes" on the budget are responsible for this unacceptable shutdown. I compromised. I put up a budget bill for a vote. Others now must now do their part and fulfill their responsibilities."

Politics aside, the diplomaitc failure has immediate consequences for Jersey residents: Christie ordered nonessential services to close beginning Saturday. New Jerseyans were feeling the impact as the shutdown took effect, shuttering state parks and disrupting ferry service to Liberty and Ellis islands. Among those affected were a group of Cub Scouts forced to leave a state park campsite and people trying to obtain or renew documents from the state motor vehicle commission, among the agencies closed by the shutdown.

As funds run out elsewhere, it will only get worse.  Police were turning away vehicles and bicyclists at Island Beach state park in Ocean County.

BREAKING: NJ Park cops turn away dozens at Island Beach State Park in Govt #Shutdown @NBCNewYork @JSHurricaneNews @tedgreenbergNBC pic.twitter.com/NplmGahc4l

— Brian Thompson (@brian4NY) July 1, 2017

A sign posted at the park entrance featured a photo of Prieto and the phone number of his district office in Secaucus, along with the caption: "This facility is CLOSED because of this man."

When asked about the sign, Christie spokesman Jeremy Rosen said the governor wanted to make sure people knew why the site was shuttered.  "Speaker Prieto singlehandedly closed state government," Rosen said, adding that the governor wanted to make sure families "knew that the facilities were closed and who is responsible."

Not all things will be affected: remaining open under the shutdown will be New Jersey Transit, state prisons, the state police, state hospitals and treatment centers as well as casinos, race tracks and the lottery. 

A major point of disagreement is the ongoing stalemate between Christie and lawmakers over whether to include legislation affecting the state"s largest health insurer into the state budget.

Christie and Senate President Steve Sweeney agree on legislation to make over Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield, including allowing the state insurance commissioner to determine a range for the company"s surplus that if exceeded must be put to use benefiting the public and policyholders.  But Prieto opposes the plan, saying that the legislation could lead to rate hikes on the insurer"s 3.8 million subscribers and that the legislation is separate from the budget.  Prieto has said he will leave open a vote on the $34.7 billion budget that remains deadlocked 26-25, with 24 abstentions, until those 24 abstentions change their mind.

Real-time view of NJ government shutdown. Green/red indicates votes either way on budget. Yellow lights the culprits, says Assembly speaker pic.twitter.com/lRpzAPGcyH

— Bob Jordan (@bobjordanAPP) July 1, 2017

Democratic Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo, of Northfield, was among those abstaining. He reasoned that if the governor did not get the Horizon bill, then nearly $150 million in school funding -- $9.6 million of which would go to his district -- would be line-item vetoed out of the budget.   And indeed, Christie said Friday during a news conference that he would slash the Democratic spending priorities if he did not get the Horizon bill as part of a package deal on the budget.  "You want me to wave a magic wand to get a budget?" Christie said. "I can"t get a budget to my desk. Only the Senate and Assembly can get the budget to my desk."

But where things may get nasty quick, is that Christie said public workers should not expect any back pay. "Yeah, don"t count on it." Christie said of furlough pay. "That was Jon "I"ll Fight For a Good Contract For You" Corzine. I ain"t him."

Christie says no furlough pay now: "Yeah, don"t count on it. That was Jon "I"ll Fight For a Good Contract For You" Corzine. I ain"t him."

— Michael Symons (@MichaelSymons_) July 1, 2017

Meanwhile, the fingerpointing has begun, including Democrats pointing at other Democrats.

"It seems like he"s just being stubborn," Mazzeo said of Prieto. "With all due respect to the speaker, then there should be some type of negotiations." But Prieto said it"s lawmakers - fellow Democrats - like Mazzeo who are to blame for the shutdown. He said he is willing to discuss the Horizon legislation but after the budget is resolved.

Christie has balked at the proposal because he says lawmakers plan to leave town to campaign for re-election and he will be a lame duck.  According to CBS, all 120 lawmakers face voters this year.

Finally, putting the sheer chaos of it all in context, Christie who is term-limited and is expected to be out of office by January, has his family staying for the holiday weekend in a state-owned house at Island Beach State Park. The park is closed because of the shutdown.

Opioids Killed More People In One Ohio County Last Year Than Car Accidents, Homicides, & Suicides Combined

As the national opioid crisis rages in the midwest and along the northern and mid-Atlantic states, Cuyahoga County has reported yet another disturbing statistic about the growing death toll from one of America’s most pressing health crises: Last year, deaths from drug overdoses in the county – the bulk of which were caused by powerful synthetic opioids like fentanyl – surpassed deaths from homicides, suicides and car crashes combined.

The county medical examiner’s office in Cuyahoga, which abuts the southern shore of the Ohio River, said the country, which is centered around Cleveland, recorded 666 overdose deaths lasts year.  Officials see no end in sight to the crisis and are projecting deaths to climb in 2017, according to the Cleveland.com.

"What we"ve seen over the beginning of 2017 is it"s getting off to a start that"s worse than 2016," Cuyahoga County Medical Examiner Dr. Thomas Gilson said last week in a news release.

Here’s a rundown of data from the county medical examiner’s office, as compiled by Cleveland.com.

The powerful synthetic opioid fentanyl was a factor in 399 of the 666 overdose deaths reported last year. Prevalence of these synthetic drugs has risen sharply since 2013 when it was involved in just five deaths. Another reason for the spike in deaths is that fentanyl is sometimes being mixed in with other drugs, usually heroin but also sometimes cocaine. The 399 fentanyl deaths reported last year included 117 deaths caused by fentanyl alone and 141 caused by a mix of fentanyl and heroin. Sixty-eight deaths were caused by a mix of fentanyl and cocaine, and 73 were caused by a mix of fentanyl, heroin and cocaine.

Two other powerful fentanyl analogues, Carfentanil and acetyl fentanyl, were responsible for 54 and 43 deaths, statistics show.

Deaths from opioid overdoses are most prevalent among young white males aged 18-24, according to expert who monitor the epidemic. But in Cuyahoga County, opioids are increasingly killing minorities as well. Fentanyl contributed to the deaths of 58 black people last year in Cuyahoga County, up from 25 in 2015. Just five black people were died from fentanyl use in 2014, according to Cleveland.com.

Still, 85 percent of the people killed by fentanyl last year were white.

Although opioid deaths accounted for the bulk of overdoses, cocaine related deaths also rose sharply in 2016.

There were 260 people who died after overdosing on the drug, or on cocaine mixed with other drugs, statistics show.

Cocaine resulted in 115 deaths in 2015; in fact, cocaine-related deaths have not risen higher than roughly 125 at any point in the past decade.

Fentanyl has been involved in the bulk of drug deaths. But heroin and painkillers were also linked to a greater number of deaths.

Opioids, which include heroin and fentanyl, were linked to 557 of the 666 overdose deaths last year in Cuyahoga County.

Overdose deaths worsened in each four-month trimester of 2016, the medical examiner"s office said.

According to the data, the county reported 140 deaths from January through April and 181 from May through August and 196 deaths between September and December.

In 2016, the county reported 475 violent deaths; that included 184 homicides, 172 suicides and 119 fatal crashes. Heroin and fentanyl, by contrast, killed 506.

Drug overdose deaths in the country are projected to increase from 666 in 2016 to 775 in 2017, the medical examiner’s office said. Heroin deaths are projected to drop, but officials are projecting an additional 200 cases involving fentanyl or cocaine.

"We are seeing epidemic levels of drug overdose deaths in this country," medical examiner Gilson told Cleveland.com in a statement. "It"s a big issue."

Cuyahoga is hardly unique; deaths from drug overdoses nationwide surpassed homicides for the first time in 2015 as the epidemic of heroin and opioid related deaths in the US continues to grow amid the dismal failure of the "war on drugs". 

One coroner in Montgomery Country, PA told a local newspaper that the morgue"s freezer is running out of room for bodies because of the high death toll from the epidemic.

President Donald Trump has vowed to combat the crisis, saying that his border wall would help curb the flow of drugs over the border from Mexico. But increasingly, drug dealers are ordering their drugs through websites hosted on the dark web, where fentanyl and other super-powerful synthetic opioids are widely available. These sites connect buyers with labs in China who will mail the drugs to US-based customers in unassuming packages that are difficult for customs to intercept.
 

Biden Bashes "Distracted" Democrats For Ignoring Working-Class Concerns

After declaring to a bunch of SALT Conference attendees last month that Hillary “was never a great candidate,” former Vice President Joe Biden criticized the Democratic Party"s campaign strategy for winning over working class voters, saying that too many were distracted by the Trump campaign"s negativity, the Hill reported.

“Because of the negative campaign that [President Donald] Trump ran, how much did we hear about that guy making 50,000 bucks on an assembly line, [and] the woman — his wife — making $28,000 as a hostess?" Biden asked.

"They have $78,000, two kids, [are] living in a metropolitan area, and they can hardly make it," Biden added. "When was the last time you heard us talk about those people?"

Biden, who was stumping for New Jersey gubernatorial candidate and former Goldman Sachs executive Phil Murphy, sounded like his old campaign-trail self, stoking speculation of another run in 2020.

When asked at SALT if he would run again for the presidency, Biden said “I may very well do it,” but added that he couldn’t commit to another run right then.

As The Hill reports, some Democrats see Biden as the best candidate to try and win back some of the working class white voters lost to Trump. Biden maintains that he hasn’t ruled out another run for the presidency.

Biden 2020: Former VP Continues To Fuel Speculation Of Presidential Ambitions

Last week at the SALT conference in Las Vegas, Joe Biden sent some mixed messages about a potential 2020 presidential run.  First, he took a shot at Hillary saying she "was never a great candidate" though he followed that up by adding that she "would have been a really good president"...which makes perfectly good sense.  Then Biden went on to talk about how he has no intentions of running in 2020 just before confirming that he "may very well do it."

Of course, with politicians you can generally learn more about their intentions through their actions rather than their rhetoric.  And Biden"s intense speaking schedule seems to reflect that of a candidate that has presidential ambitions.  Per The Hill:

Still, Biden’s busy recent schedule of events and appearances suggests he hasn’t entirely ruled out another bid.

Biden has attended a hedge fund conference in Las Vegas and a fundraiser for New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D). His jam-packed calendar also includes upcoming speeches at the Florida Democratic Party and at a few college commencements. Biden will also receive an award at the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) LGBT Gala next month.

But the appearance that drew the loudest buzz was Biden’s speech last month at a state party dinner in New Hampshire — a critical early state in the presidential primary circuit. During his speech, Biden sought to tamp down the 2020 rumors.

"When I got asked to speak, I knew it was going to cause speculation," Biden said to applause, only to add, "Guys, I"m not running.”

If successful, Biden would be 78 by the time he took office making him, by far, the oldest president in history. 

A recent poll from Public Policy Polling found Biden as the leading Democratic contender in a hypothetical matchup against Trump with a head-to-head lead of 14 points, 54% to 40%.  Of course, we"ve seen this story playout before with pollsters persistently underestimating Trump"s support through 2016.

And while those numbers may seem comforting, even close Democratic strategists don"t think Biden will run in 2020.

“I don’t have any idea what he’s going to do other than what he says publicly, which is he’s not inclined to do it at this point. I don’t think he knows what he’s going to do honestly,” said Steve Schale, a former Obama campaign aide in Florida who worked on the Draft Biden movement in 2016. He noted that he hasn’t spoken to Biden since Christmas.

“The idea that Joe Biden would continue to do what he’s done for 40 years … shouldn"t come to anybody’s surprise, nor do I think anybody should read into it that he’s definitely made a decision. He’s keeping his word that he was going to remain active in the public space and work on the issues he cares about.”

“This is who he is, this is what he’s done his whole life,” Schale said. “I think you’re going to see Joe Biden remain a pretty prominent fixture in American politics.”

"He has a very valuable role to play, but I don’t think he’s in the same league with the Sanders and Warrens of the world,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “They have bigger microphones and platforms to speak from.”

That said, one Democratic strategist had the guts to point out the real reason that Biden will likely never be the Democratic candidate for president: “I think Democrats are going to want a new face, somebody fresh"....which can be loosely translated as "he"s too white and too old."

GWU Eliminates U.S. History As A Requirement For History Majors

Upon his death in 1799, George Washington"s will set aside 50 shares of the Potowmack Company in his estate to fund the creation of a national university in the nation"s capital.  Just over 20 years later, an Act of Congress created the Columbian College in the District of Columbia which subsequently changed its name to George Washington University in 1904 in honor of Washington. Per WikiPedia:

George Washington, the first president of the United States, had indicated to Congress through various letters, as well as his last will and testament, that he wanted to establish a university within the nation"s capital. Washington left fifty shares of the Potowmack Company in his estate for a national university in the District of Columbia. The university was chartered by an Act of Congress on February 9, 1821, as the Columbian College in the District of Columbia. In 1904, it changed its name to the George Washington University in honor of Washington.

Now, some 200 years later, GWU, like many of the nation"s universities, has been overrun with liberal, elitist professors who have decided to shun America"s first president, and the inspiration behind the founding their university, by removing U.S. History as a required course for history majors.  Of course, why would U.S. history be important for history majors...this country has been a fairly irrelevant player in shaping world history for the past 200 years.

Syndicated radio host Larry Elders recently blasted the decision on Fox News as just another effort to indoctrinate students with the notion that "America is nothing more than a series of incidents that oppress people,
whether it"s Native Americans or women or blacks or Hispanics or Asian
people."

"According to a lot of professors, the founding fathers are a bunch of old rich white guys who owned slaves," syndicated radio host Larry Elder said Monday on "Fox & Friends." "As a result, they"re no longer relevant."

"I call this the access of indoctrination. Schools have long since passed the line from education to indoctrination, and this is one more step toward that."

"Kids are learning that America is nothing more than a series of incidents that oppress people, whether it"s Native Americans or women or blacks or Hispanics or Asian people," he said. "That"s what they"re learning."

Meanwhile, the chair of GWU"s history department told the school"s newspaper that the move was nothing more than an effort to cater to the university"s snowflakes who may be saddened by the burden of being forced to take a U.S. history course.

Katrin Schultheiss, the chair of the history department, said faculty made the changes to the requirements largely due to enrollment pressures. She said by becoming more flexible and more responsive to students’ interests, the department hopes to recruit students who might not have decided to major in history otherwise.

“I think the main gain for students is that they have a great deal more flexibility than they had before, and they can adapt it to whatever their plans are for the future,” Schultheiss said. “Whatever they want to do, there’s a way to make the history department work for them.”

This pretty much sums up our thoughts:

At What Age Do You Outgrow IKEA?

By Priceonomics

If you’re a twenty something, it may already have happened: that awkward moment when you realize all your friends have the same Pinsoshen coffee table from IKEA. 

The Swedish brand’s reputation for stocking stylish furniture and selling it for low prices has made it a one-stop shop for cash-strapped students furnishing their first apartments. 

But when do they leave IKEA behind in favor of something more grown-up? We wanted to find out, so we analyzed data from Earnest , a Priceonomics customer. We analyzed a dataset of more than 10,000 anonymous user responses on spending habits. When does it begin? When does it end? And where do people turn when they’re ready for something new? 

We first wanted to know how reliance on IKEA changes over a person’s lifetime, so we calculated the percent of our clients who shopped at IKEA. For the sake of comparison, we did the same for Lowe’s, a home improvement chain with similar overall popularity within our dataset.

As it turns out, age 34 is when you start to outgrow IKEA:

Data source: Earnest

It’s written in the data: you’re more likely to buy from IKEA when you’re 24 than at any other time in your life. IKEA remains popular throughout the late 20s and early 30s, but drops after age 34. We may as well call the 10-year period spanning the mid-20s and mid-30s the “IKEA decade.”

Lowe’s, meanwhile, shows the opposite trend: people are more likely to shop there as they get older. This makes sense, as increasing homeownership means more home improvement projects.

We wanted to further explore where shoppers turn once they grow out of their IKEA interiors. For each of 14 top furniture retailers, we found the age when the most respondents reported shopping at that store. We tabulated those “peak customer ages” below.

Data source:  Earnest

Not only is IKEA popular among young adults, it is the only retailer with a peak customer age below 30. 

People in their 30s are more likely to shop stores that specialize in housewares and home accessories like Bed Bath & Beyond and Williams-Sonoma - perhaps because their IKEA furniture is still serving them well. 

The oldest customers in our dataset prefer to do it themselves, favoring Home Depot and Lowe’s. When buying ready-to-use furniture, they visit big-box retailers like Ashley Furniture.

Beyond age, we were curious about which personal attributes predict furniture retailer preference. We calculated the percent of men and women in our sample claiming to shop each brand.

Data source:  Earnest

By and large, men and women visit the same stores when they go furniture shopping. And they visit IKEA in particularly even numbers. But do-it-yourself stores like Home Depot and Lowe’s are visited by men more often than women, and women visit most of the other stores we considered in greater numbers than men.

Does geographic location influence retailer preference? We next looked at the percent of respondents from each state who identified themselves as IKEA shoppers. Results are listed below for all states for which we had at least 10 respondents.

Data source:  Earnest

The Swedish brand began its North American expansion in the mid-Atlantic states, and this region still has the most IKEA brick-and-mortars. But it doesn’t lay claim to the most shoppers; that distinction goes to the Midwest and West Coast, which are home to the top 8 states.

This ranking is curiously uncorrelated to a listing of IKEA’s store locations. The top 4 states have just one store apiece. The popularity of IKEA in the west may have less to do with store ubiquity and more to do with lifestyle attributes that make the brand a natural fit.

Jury Finds Christie's 'Lieutenants' Guilty Of Causing Traffic Jams As Political Retaliation

The jury in the Bridgegate case has found Bridget Kelly, Christie"s former deputy chief of staff, and Bill Baroni, a Christie appointee to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, guilty of a plot to use traffic jams for political retaliation.

As NY Post reports, two former aides of NJ Gov. Chris Christie were found guilty of closing down Fort Lee, NJ, lanes to the George Washington Bridge to punish that borough’s mayor for not endorsing the governor’s re-election.

A jury of seven women and five men returned the guilty verdict after five days and 20 hours of deliberations in the Newark federal court trial of Bridget Anne Kelly, Christie’s former deputy chief of staff, and Bill Baroni, Christie’s appointee at the Port Authority.

The guilty verdict is more bad news for Christie, who saw his approval rating plummet to its lowest levels yet during the trial, where former staffers described him as a foul-mouthed bully who ordered subordinates to curse out his critics — and who once got angry over a playful box of donuts.

The government presented a mountain of evidence over the six-week trial, including testimony from Baroni’s former chief of staff, David Wildstein, who said he carried out the scheme at the behest of Kelly and Baroni.

The jury was also shown emails and text messages, including Kelly’s infamous email saying it was “time for traffic problems in Fort Lee.”

Christie has repeatedly denied knowing his staff was involved in the lane closures, which snarled traffic in Fort Lee for days in 2013, until the following year. Wildstein, however, testified that he and Baroni spoke with the governor about the lane closures while they were happening – and that the Gov. laughed about it. Several other witnesses say they warned Christie in 2013 that his staff might have been involved.

NJ.com notes, the jury of seven women and five men heard from 35 witnesses, including both defendants who took the stand on their behalf.

But the most damaging evidence might have been the now-infamous "time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee" email sent by Kelly less than a month before several local access toll lanes at the world"s busiest bridge were inexplicably closed for nearly a week in September 2013, leading to paralyzing gridlock on local streets.

The key witness against them was David Wildstein, a Republican operative who was on the stand for eight days. Wildstein acknowledged he was the one who came up with the lane closure idea as a point of leverage against Sokolich, and testified that both Baroni and Kelly helped him put it in play.

Baroni, 44, the former deputy executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and Kelly, also 44, who served as a deputy chief of staff to the governor, were indicted more than a year ago after a 16-month federal investigation into the scandal that loomed large over Christie"s failed presidential aspirations.

Assistant U.S. attorney Lee Cortes, in his summations to the jury, said Baroni, Kelly and Wildstein all saw themselves as the governor"s "loyal lieutenants" who were free to use their public jobs to launch political attacks.

"They used their positions at the Port Authority and in the governor"s office to execute a malicious scheme to punish a local mayor by needlessly leading innocent travelers, adults and children who were pawns in a political game into a paralyzing traffic jam that went on for days," he said.

"They stopped people from moving freely about their community for no legitimate reason...just to mess with people, so they could send a clear and nasty political message. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what makes this a federal crime."

Chris Christie has made a statement: