According to two top republican politicians, Donald Trump may not seek reelection in 2020, in spite of already raising millions for his campaign. Chris Christie and Rand Paul are casting doubt on Trump’s desire to remain president.
“If he runs again I would support him, yes, but I’m not so sure what will happen,” Chris Christe, the governor of New Jersey said on the Today show on Friday. Senator Rand Paul also cast doubts over whether President Trump would throw his hat into the presidential ring again and argued Republicans should not merely assume he is running.
“I think no one can stop primaries from happening and there could well be a primary that happens,” Paul said on MSNBC when probed about whether the US could benefit from a Republican party primary in 2020. “Before you even get to that, you need to know, is President Trump running for re-election? I think you won’t know that until you get into sort of – second, third year of his presidency,” he said. Paul said he could not see himself supporting anyone else he did suggest the chance of him supporting a candidate who would end the war in Afghanistan.
“So I see the glass as half full. Doesn’t mean I agree with him on everything,” he said. “You know, there would be people that – if we could end the Afghan war, that’s who I would support. But I don’t think that’s going to be an alternative to President Trump.”
Paul’s sentiments are similar to those expressed by Christie. “Four years is a long time, and especially for someone who has not spent a lifetime in politics, so I think those years affect him differently. So I’m sure the president will make whatever decision is best for him and his family and the country,” said Christie.
Christie and Paul both said that if Trump runs again, he’d have both of their support in a reelection campaign. Not running for a second term would be a highly unconventional move for a sitting president. Only three other presidents have deliberately moved out of the White House after just one term as president. But Trump has invested money in his reelection campaign already.
According to the Centre for Public Integrity, Trump’s re-election campaign committee raised just over $10 million from July to the end of September. The former reality star and real estate mogul held a $35,000-a-plate fundraiser event a few blocks from the White House at his Washington hotel back in June. Trump’s historically early campaigning has seen his campaign accumulate more than $7 million in the first three months of this year via small donations and selling Trump-themed merchandise such as his trademark “Make America Great Again” hats.
After a three day state of emergency and government shutdown, on Tuesday morning New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie signed a compromise budget bill ending the state shutdown that became an embarrassment for the outgoing governor when he was photographed lounging on a beach that had been closed to the public for the holiday weekend. According to Reuters, Christie ended the state shutdown by signing a $34.7 billion budget measure that included a controversial provision reshaping the state"s largest health insurer, Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey, which covers 3.8 million people in the state.
I’m pleased the Legislature has reached an agreement which fulfills their obligation of delivering a budget. https://t.co/O0mowBASN3
Christie said all state parks and beaches would be open on Tuesday for the Fourth of July holiday and state offices would be open as usual on Wednesday, and added that he was happy a resolution had been reached on the budget impasse, but saddened it came three days late.
Today I signed my final balanced budget, delivering 2 full terms of unprecedented pension stability, fiscal responsibility & tax relief. pic.twitter.com/3oUmzENLNR
"This bill is a long overdue significant reform that will have a lasting impact on New Jersey residents," he said before signing it into law.
Separately, NJ State Senate President Steve Sweeney told a news conference: "None of this was easy." Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto also chimed in, saying the agreement to end the partial government shutdown was reached after long talks in "crisis" mode on Monday with Horizon and state legislators.
As noted yesterday, while Christie was largely a non participant in the bduget standoff, he was ridiculed after NJ.com posted photos of the Republican governor and his family sunbathing on a beach that had been closed to the public over the holiday weekend due to the budget standoff.
In characteristic fashion, Christie downplayed the kerfuffle. "If they had flown that plane over the beach and I was sitting next to a 25-year-old blonde in that beach chair next to me, that"s a story."
While states have mostly recovered since the 2007-2009 recession, their revenue growth has not always kept pace with the national economy.
More than 30,000 state workers who were furloughed on Monday, would get back to their jobs as a result of the new budget.
Elsewhere, just like Jersey, the state of Maine ended also a 3-day government shutdown on Tuesday when Governor Paul LePage signed a budget for the fiscal years 2018 and 2019 following late-night negotiations with legislative leaders, the governor"s office said in a statement. Previously, members of Maine"s State Employees Association rallied outside the State House to demand a budget deal from lawmakers and Republican Governor Paul LePage.
"The Maine state government shutdown is now over. Happy Fourth of July!" LePage said.
"I have signed a budget with no tax increase. I thank the House Republicans for standing strong for the Maine people," he said in a second tweet. Maine state police, parks and offices responsible for collecting revenue had all planned to work through the shutdown, the state"s first since 1991.
While NJ and Maine are back to spending money they don"t have, about 10 U.S. states still do not have budgets for the fiscal year that began on July 1, including Illinois, which is in its third year without an enacted budget.
Earlier today, the Illinois Senate voted to approve the final budget bill passed by the House, however Illinois Governor has vowed he will veto any spending bill, and it was unclear if and how his opinion would be overruled.
Illinois, Maine, Connecticut: the end of the old fiscal year and the failure of numerous states to enter the new one with a budget, means that some of America"s most populous states have seen their local governments grind to a halt overnight until some spending agreement is reached. Now we can also add New Jersey to this list.
On Saturday morning, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie declared a state of emergency in the state, and announced a partial state government shutdown as New Jersey become the latest state to enter the new fiscal year without an approved budget after the Republican governor and the Democrat-led Legislature failed to reach an agreement by the deadline at midnight Friday, CBS New York reports.
In a news conference Saturday morning, Christie blamed Democratic State Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto for causing the shutdown. And, just like Illinois and Connecticut, Christie and the Democrat-led Legislature are returning to work in hopes of resolving the state"s first government shutdown since 2006 and the first under Christie, before NJ is downgraded further by the rating agencies.
"If there"s not a resolution to this today, everyone will be back tomorrow," Christie said, calling the shutdown "embarrassing and pointless." He also repeatedly referred to the government closure as "the speaker"s shutdown." Christie later announced that he would address the full legislature later at the statehouse on Saturday.
Prieto remained steadfast in his opposition, reiterating that he won"t consider the plan as part of the budget process but would consider it once a budget is signed. Referring to the shutdown as "Gov. Christie"s Hostage Crisis Day One," Prieto said he has made compromises that led to the budget now before the Legislature.
"I am also ready to consider reasonable alternatives that protect ratepayers, but others must come to the table ready to be equally reasonable," Prieto said. "Gov. Christie and the legislators who won"t vote "yes" on the budget are responsible for this unacceptable shutdown. I compromised. I put up a budget bill for a vote. Others now must now do their part and fulfill their responsibilities."
Politics aside, the diplomaitc failure has immediate consequences for Jersey residents: Christie ordered nonessential services to close beginning Saturday. New Jerseyans were feeling the impact as the shutdown took effect, shuttering state parks and disrupting ferry service to Liberty and Ellis islands. Among those affected were a group of Cub Scouts forced to leave a state park campsite and people trying to obtain or renew documents from the state motor vehicle commission, among the agencies closed by the shutdown.
As funds run out elsewhere, it will only get worse. Police were turning away vehicles and bicyclists at Island Beach state park in Ocean County.
A sign posted at the park entrance featured a photo of Prieto and the phone number of his district office in Secaucus, along with the caption: "This facility is CLOSED because of this man."
When asked about the sign, Christie spokesman Jeremy Rosen said the governor wanted to make sure people knew why the site was shuttered. "Speaker Prieto singlehandedly closed state government," Rosen said, adding that the governor wanted to make sure families "knew that the facilities were closed and who is responsible."
Not all things will be affected: remaining open under the shutdown will be New Jersey Transit, state prisons, the state police, state hospitals and treatment centers as well as casinos, race tracks and the lottery.
A major point of disagreement is the ongoing stalemate between Christie and lawmakers over whether to include legislation affecting the state"s largest health insurer into the state budget.
Christie and Senate President Steve Sweeney agree on legislation to make over Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield, including allowing the state insurance commissioner to determine a range for the company"s surplus that if exceeded must be put to use benefiting the public and policyholders. But Prieto opposes the plan, saying that the legislation could lead to rate hikes on the insurer"s 3.8 million subscribers and that the legislation is separate from the budget. Prieto has said he will leave open a vote on the $34.7 billion budget that remains deadlocked 26-25, with 24 abstentions, until those 24 abstentions change their mind.
Real-time view of NJ government shutdown. Green/red indicates votes either way on budget. Yellow lights the culprits, says Assembly speaker pic.twitter.com/lRpzAPGcyH
Democratic Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo, of Northfield, was among those abstaining. He reasoned that if the governor did not get the Horizon bill, then nearly $150 million in school funding -- $9.6 million of which would go to his district -- would be line-item vetoed out of the budget. And indeed, Christie said Friday during a news conference that he would slash the Democratic spending priorities if he did not get the Horizon bill as part of a package deal on the budget. "You want me to wave a magic wand to get a budget?" Christie said. "I can"t get a budget to my desk. Only the Senate and Assembly can get the budget to my desk."
But where things may get nasty quick, is that Christie said public workers should not expect any back pay. "Yeah, don"t count on it." Christie said of furlough pay. "That was Jon "I"ll Fight For a Good Contract For You" Corzine. I ain"t him."
Christie says no furlough pay now: "Yeah, don"t count on it. That was Jon "I"ll Fight For a Good Contract For You" Corzine. I ain"t him."
Meanwhile, the fingerpointing has begun, including Democrats pointing at other Democrats.
"It seems like he"s just being stubborn," Mazzeo said of Prieto. "With all due respect to the speaker, then there should be some type of negotiations." But Prieto said it"s lawmakers - fellow Democrats - like Mazzeo who are to blame for the shutdown. He said he is willing to discuss the Horizon legislation but after the budget is resolved.
Christie has balked at the proposal because he says lawmakers plan to leave town to campaign for re-election and he will be a lame duck. According to CBS, all 120 lawmakers face voters this year.
Finally, putting the sheer chaos of it all in context, Christie who is term-limited and is expected to be out of office by January, has his family staying for the holiday weekend in a state-owned house at Island Beach State Park. The park is closed because of the shutdown.
Standard and Poor"s credit rating analysts for the state of New Jersey, David Hitchcock and John Sugden, apparently think that funding only half of your state"s annual actuarially determined contributions is a bad thing...who knew? So, just to make sure we achieve crystal clarity here, S&P believes that adding to NJ"s $66 billion pension underfunded liability, which would be much higher but for a ridiculous assumption the state makes in setting its return on assets at an artificially high rate of 7.65%, each and every year by contributing less to the fund than what is paid out in benefits, is a bad thing?
Of course, as S&P notes, NJ"s pension problems won"t bankrupt the state until sometime "down the road" so an "A-" rating is still reasonable for now.
Short term, the proposed budget leaves the state in similar financial condition to where it started 2017, with slim, but adequate reserves, and some vulnerability to potential revenue shortfalls. However, down the road, because New Jersey plans to only partially fund its actuarially determined contributions (ADC), the picture looks much worse, as reflected in our current "A-" general obligation rating and a negative outlook on the state.
The governor"s budget proposal follows his multi-year plan to gradually ramp up to full funding of the state pension ADC over 10 years. New Jersey would fund only 50% of the ADC in fiscal 2018, after funding 40% in fiscal 2017. Underfunding in any year ratchets up future state liabilities, in effect pushing back the tide, as New Jersey comes closer to the day when it will be left with no choice but to confront its very significant retirement obligations. The term-limited governor"s successor will face tough funding decisions as early as fiscal 2019. The planned 50% ADC contribution in fiscal 2018 in itself represents a record payment of $2.5 billion, boosted in part by the state"s decision to lower the assumed rate of return to a somewhat less aggressive 7.65% from 7.90%. We calculate the budget proposal, if enacted, would leave New Jersey with a sizable structural budget gap of about 9% of proposed 2018 appropriations--2% attributable to various one-time budget items in fiscal 2018, and 7% representing pension funding below ADC--a similar structural budget gap to last year, despite the increased pension contribution in 2018.
That said, we"re happy to note that S&P was encouraged by Chris Christie"s recommendation, even though it wasn"t a part of his official budget and would likely face stiff opposition, to set aside revenues from his state"s lottery enterprise system to fund New Jersey"s pension ponzi for a period of 30 years. Per NJ.com:
Christie"s biggest surprise was his plan to use proceeds from state lottery ticket sales to pay for public worker pensions" ever-increasing tab.
The lottery, which is expected to bring in $965 million this year, helps fund education programs, psychiatric hospitals, centers for people with developmental disabilities and homes for disabled soldiers.
Under the state Constitution, lottery proceeds must be spent on state institutions and state aid for education. The state pays a number of costs on behalf of local school districts that can be categorized as aid, including the employer share of the Teachers" Pension and Annuity Fund.
The governor estimated this quick injection of cash would reduce the pension fund"s unfunded liability -- $66.2 billion -- immediately by $13 billion and each year reduce the amount actuaries recommend the state chip in.
"If implemented correctly this action would increase the value and stability of our pension funds immediately and would please bond investors and credit rating agencies, also giving greater confidence to New Jersey"s public employees," he said.
State Senate President Stephen Sweeney (D-Gloucester) said if Christie"s lottery plan "makes sense" to help fix the pension system, state lawmakers "will be happy to do it."
Of course, as we pointed out previously, Christie"s plan to send lottery dollars to his own pension just might have something to do with his state"s latest ponzi that envisions issuing debt, intended to cover state budget deficits, to it"s own insolvent pension fund.
After struggling to raise debt from third parties to repair crumbling infrastructure, the state of New Jersey has come up with a "clever" approach to fundraising that entails selling debt to their own insolvent pension funds...something we"ve dubbed the "Pension Ponzi Squared." Of course, because when everybody else shuns your debt for being too risky who better to sell it to than yourself?
With $3.4 billion in annual benefits payments versus only $1.9 billion in contributions, funds like the New Jersey Public Employees" Retirement System already qualified as a plain vanilla ponzi scheme. But, using what little pension assets they have left (38% net funded) to buy debt in the entity that ultimately backstops their liabilities is a whole new level of madness. As we recall, the mortgage CDO^2 didn"t work out so well back in 2008.
For those who haven"t followed the pension debacle in NJ, here is a decent recap of how decades of bad leadership in the governor"s office created the mess that will inevitably bankrupt the state.
The jury in the Bridgegate case has found Bridget Kelly, Christie"s former deputy chief of staff, and Bill Baroni, a Christie appointee to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, guilty of a plot to use traffic jams for political retaliation.
As NY Post reports,two former aides of NJ Gov. Chris Christie were found guilty of closing down Fort Lee, NJ, lanes to the George Washington Bridge to punish that borough’s mayor for not endorsing the governor’s re-election.
A jury of seven women and five men returned the guilty verdict after five days and 20 hours of deliberations in the Newark federal court trial of Bridget Anne Kelly, Christie’s former deputy chief of staff, and Bill Baroni, Christie’s appointee at the Port Authority.
The guilty verdict is more bad news for Christie, who saw his approval rating plummet to its lowest levels yet during the trial, where former staffers described him as a foul-mouthed bully who ordered subordinates to curse out his critics — and who once got angry over a playful box of donuts.
The government presented a mountain of evidence over the six-week trial, including testimony from Baroni’s former chief of staff, David Wildstein, who said he carried out the scheme at the behest of Kelly and Baroni.
The jury was also shown emails and text messages, including Kelly’s infamous email saying it was “time for traffic problems in Fort Lee.”
Christie has repeatedly denied knowing his staff was involved in the lane closures, which snarled traffic in Fort Lee for days in 2013, until the following year. Wildstein, however, testified that he and Baroni spoke with the governor about the lane closures while they were happening – and that the Gov. laughed about it. Several other witnesses say they warned Christie in 2013 that his staff might have been involved.
NJ.com notes, the jury of seven women and five men heard from 35 witnesses, including both defendants who took the stand on their behalf.
But the most damaging evidence might have been the now-infamous "time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee" email sent by Kelly less than a month before several local access toll lanes at the world"s busiest bridge were inexplicably closed for nearly a week in September 2013, leading to paralyzing gridlock on local streets.
The key witness against them was David Wildstein, a Republican operative who was on the stand for eight days. Wildstein acknowledged he was the one who came up with the lane closure idea as a point of leverage against Sokolich, and testified that both Baroni and Kelly helped him put it in play.
Baroni, 44, the former deputy executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and Kelly, also 44, who served as a deputy chief of staff to the governor, were indicted more than a year ago after a 16-month federal investigation into the scandal that loomed large over Christie"s failed presidential aspirations.
Assistant U.S. attorney Lee Cortes, in his summations to the jury, said Baroni, Kelly and Wildstein all saw themselves as the governor"s "loyal lieutenants" who were free to use their public jobs to launch political attacks.
"They used their positions at the Port Authority and in the governor"s office to execute a malicious scheme to punish a local mayor by needlessly leading innocent travelers, adults and children who were pawns in a political game into a paralyzing traffic jam that went on for days," he said.
"They stopped people from moving freely about their community for no legitimate reason...just to mess with people, so they could send a clear and nasty political message. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what makes this a federal crime."
