Northeast Forecast To Get Big Winter Blast

Three days ago, we asked: Is A Major Winter Blast Coming To The East Coast This Christmas? Despite all the chatter from global warming alarmists this year, there is a chance, some in the Northeast could experience a white Christmas.

Ed Vallee, a private weather forecaster based in Connecticut, reports merging storms will spread snow, rain, and mixed conditions from the central Appalachians to New England. The system will start on Sunday night and continue into Monday. Snow totals are forecasted to bring 2-8″ for parts of the Northeast (shown below). 

Vallee discusses the risks associated with the storm, along with more details into the timing of this system.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson, confirms Vallee’s forecast and said, there will be “enough snow to shovel and plow is likely from western and northern Pennsylvania and southern Ontario to Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia.”

Here are the highways that could be heavily impacted by the storm include Interstate 70, I-76, I-78, I-80, I-81, I-84, I-86, I-87, I-88, I-89, I-90, I-91, I-93, I-95, and I-390. AccuWeather’s team expects delays at airports in Pittsburgh, New York City, and Boston.

Also, the National Weather Service has issued a deluge of winter weather advisories and warnings for the Northeast (as of 12-24).

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides an animated Gif depicting the trajectory of the system with the different types of precipitation probabilities.

 

Accuweather sheds more color on the storm:

From just north and east of Philadelphia to New York City, Providence, Rhode Island, and New Bedford, Massachusetts, just enough snow may fall to cover the ground, just in time for a White Christmas.

 

Farther south and west from Atlantic City, New Jersey to Baltimore and Salisbury, Maryland, and Washington, D.C., little or no snow is likely. Little or no rain may fall as well due to a gap in the storm.

Winter weather for the Northeast comes at no surprise considering the La Niña reading on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). La Niña conditions formed last month, indicating the Northern Hemisphere could be due for an abundance of winter weather (See: She’s Back! La Niña Is Here For The Second Consecutive Year).

BAMWX.com notes, the pattern is about to change in a huge way and it may begin on Christmas eve! Accumulating snow is on the table between Dec 24th-Jan 5th in a big way.

Obviously, if the winter blast does erupt, it is a perfect excuse for lagging spending, despite consumer sentiment at lofty levels.

Let’s just hope, the weather models above are as bad as Dennis Gartman’s market forecasts.

She"s Back! La Niña Is Here For The Second Consecutive Year

For the second consecutive time in two years, La Niña (translated from Spanish as “little girl”) is back and she means business. New data from Climate.gov indicates La Niña conditions have formed just in time for winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere.

On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center confirmed La Niña after analyzing October ocean temperatures cooling along the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean. La Niña is often declared when sea surface temperatures in the region (just stated) decline by 0.5 degrees Celsius.

John Morales‏, Chief Meteorologist WTVJ NBC-6 Miami, shows the progression of cool water over the equatorial Pacific Ocean responsible for La Niña formation.

For the second consecutive northern hemisphere cool season, we are officially now in a #LaNina as per @NWSCPC https://t.co/wv7pR1lO7h pic.twitter.com/bccFHgwNnf

— John Morales (@JohnMoralesNBC6) November 9, 2017

The cooler waters have an influence on atmospheric conditions by decreasing evaporation in the tropics, which is a major driver of global weather.

According to the Weather Channel,

A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according to the prediction center.

 

The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic also tend to see warmer-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter. New England and the Upper Midwest into New York tend to see colder-than-average temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center /NCEP/NWS Full Report: La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.

During October, weak La Niña conditions emerged as reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The weekly Niño indices were variable during the month, with values near -0.5° C during the past week in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 regions [Fig. 2]. Sub-surface temperatures remained below average during October [Fig. 3], reflecting the anomalously shallow depth of the thermocline across the central and eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Also, convection was suppressed near the International Date Line and slightly enhanced over parts of the Maritime Continent and the Philippines [Fig. 5]. Over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, low-level trade winds were mainly near average, but the upper-level winds were strongly anomalously westerly and the Southern Oscillation Index was positive. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflects the onset of La Niña conditions.

 

For the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Niña is favored in the model averages of the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and also in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) [Fig. 7]. The consensus of forecasters is for the event to continue through approximately February-April 2018. In summary, La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

 

La Niña is likely to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday November 16th). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States.

La Niña weather phenomenon easily explained:

Ben Noll, Meteorologist, National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research of New Zealand, compares the equatorial sea-surface temperatures in 2016 and 2017. His findings indicate 2017 waters “not as large farther west” when compared with 2016. Basically he validates NOAA’s “weaker La Niña” claim...

Compare early November equatorial SSTs in two consecutive #LaNina years.

2016: Coldest anomaly in central Pacific, above normal near South America.
2017: Coldest anomaly near South America, anomalies not as large farther west.

An important difference as we go forward! pic.twitter.com/2fjXfjjVOD

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) November 10, 2017

NOAA’s winter weather outlook indicates normal participation for the mid-tier of the United States. The southern-tier is forecasted to see much drier conditions. Meanwhile, the Great Lakes region and Northwest of the United States appear to have much wetter conditions.

Temperature outlooks for this winter include at-least 2/3 of the United States well above average. Below average to normal in regions, such as the Great Lakes region and Northwest.

Bottomline: What do weather forecasters and Dennis Gartman both have in common?... Well you guessed it– terrible forecasting...