Northeast Forecast To Get Big Winter Blast

Three days ago, we asked: Is A Major Winter Blast Coming To The East Coast This Christmas? Despite all the chatter from global warming alarmists this year, there is a chance, some in the Northeast could experience a white Christmas.

Ed Vallee, a private weather forecaster based in Connecticut, reports merging storms will spread snow, rain, and mixed conditions from the central Appalachians to New England. The system will start on Sunday night and continue into Monday. Snow totals are forecasted to bring 2-8″ for parts of the Northeast (shown below). 

Vallee discusses the risks associated with the storm, along with more details into the timing of this system.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson, confirms Vallee’s forecast and said, there will be “enough snow to shovel and plow is likely from western and northern Pennsylvania and southern Ontario to Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia.”

Here are the highways that could be heavily impacted by the storm include Interstate 70, I-76, I-78, I-80, I-81, I-84, I-86, I-87, I-88, I-89, I-90, I-91, I-93, I-95, and I-390. AccuWeather’s team expects delays at airports in Pittsburgh, New York City, and Boston.

Also, the National Weather Service has issued a deluge of winter weather advisories and warnings for the Northeast (as of 12-24).

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides an animated Gif depicting the trajectory of the system with the different types of precipitation probabilities.

 

Accuweather sheds more color on the storm:

From just north and east of Philadelphia to New York City, Providence, Rhode Island, and New Bedford, Massachusetts, just enough snow may fall to cover the ground, just in time for a White Christmas.

 

Farther south and west from Atlantic City, New Jersey to Baltimore and Salisbury, Maryland, and Washington, D.C., little or no snow is likely. Little or no rain may fall as well due to a gap in the storm.

Winter weather for the Northeast comes at no surprise considering the La Niña reading on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). La Niña conditions formed last month, indicating the Northern Hemisphere could be due for an abundance of winter weather (See: She’s Back! La Niña Is Here For The Second Consecutive Year).

BAMWX.com notes, the pattern is about to change in a huge way and it may begin on Christmas eve! Accumulating snow is on the table between Dec 24th-Jan 5th in a big way.

Obviously, if the winter blast does erupt, it is a perfect excuse for lagging spending, despite consumer sentiment at lofty levels.

Let’s just hope, the weather models above are as bad as Dennis Gartman’s market forecasts.

She"s Back! La Niña Is Here For The Second Consecutive Year

For the second consecutive time in two years, La Niña (translated from Spanish as “little girl”) is back and she means business. New data from Climate.gov indicates La Niña conditions have formed just in time for winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere.

On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center confirmed La Niña after analyzing October ocean temperatures cooling along the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean. La Niña is often declared when sea surface temperatures in the region (just stated) decline by 0.5 degrees Celsius.

John Morales‏, Chief Meteorologist WTVJ NBC-6 Miami, shows the progression of cool water over the equatorial Pacific Ocean responsible for La Niña formation.

For the second consecutive northern hemisphere cool season, we are officially now in a #LaNina as per @NWSCPC https://t.co/wv7pR1lO7h pic.twitter.com/bccFHgwNnf

— John Morales (@JohnMoralesNBC6) November 9, 2017

The cooler waters have an influence on atmospheric conditions by decreasing evaporation in the tropics, which is a major driver of global weather.

According to the Weather Channel,

A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according to the prediction center.

 

The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic also tend to see warmer-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter. New England and the Upper Midwest into New York tend to see colder-than-average temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center /NCEP/NWS Full Report: La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.

During October, weak La Niña conditions emerged as reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The weekly Niño indices were variable during the month, with values near -0.5° C during the past week in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 regions [Fig. 2]. Sub-surface temperatures remained below average during October [Fig. 3], reflecting the anomalously shallow depth of the thermocline across the central and eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Also, convection was suppressed near the International Date Line and slightly enhanced over parts of the Maritime Continent and the Philippines [Fig. 5]. Over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, low-level trade winds were mainly near average, but the upper-level winds were strongly anomalously westerly and the Southern Oscillation Index was positive. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflects the onset of La Niña conditions.

 

For the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Niña is favored in the model averages of the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and also in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) [Fig. 7]. The consensus of forecasters is for the event to continue through approximately February-April 2018. In summary, La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

 

La Niña is likely to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday November 16th). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States.

La Niña weather phenomenon easily explained:

Ben Noll, Meteorologist, National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research of New Zealand, compares the equatorial sea-surface temperatures in 2016 and 2017. His findings indicate 2017 waters “not as large farther west” when compared with 2016. Basically he validates NOAA’s “weaker La Niña” claim...

Compare early November equatorial SSTs in two consecutive #LaNina years.

2016: Coldest anomaly in central Pacific, above normal near South America.
2017: Coldest anomaly near South America, anomalies not as large farther west.

An important difference as we go forward! pic.twitter.com/2fjXfjjVOD

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) November 10, 2017

NOAA’s winter weather outlook indicates normal participation for the mid-tier of the United States. The southern-tier is forecasted to see much drier conditions. Meanwhile, the Great Lakes region and Northwest of the United States appear to have much wetter conditions.

Temperature outlooks for this winter include at-least 2/3 of the United States well above average. Below average to normal in regions, such as the Great Lakes region and Northwest.

Bottomline: What do weather forecasters and Dennis Gartman both have in common?... Well you guessed it– terrible forecasting...

Northeast Facing Record-Low Temperatures As Polar Vortex Returns

The return of the dreaded polar vortex is battering much of the eastern US this week, sending temperatures well into freezing territory and close to record lows - a phenomenon that could persist for much of the week leading up to Thanksgiving.

According to the New York Post, record-low temperatures are forecast for Friday and Saturday, with nighttime and early-morning mercury dipping into the 20s.

The temperature dropped into the 20s in some places in the northeast last night, and could sink as low as 21 degrees fahrenheit on Saturday, according to AccuWeather forecasts.

The record low for November 10 was 27 degrees in 1914. The high Saturday will be 37 to 43 degrees - up from the predawn low of about 24 degrees. The record low for November 11 was 29 degrees, set in 1933.

The forecast calls for 50 degrees on Monday, setting off eight straight days with high temps of at least 50, AccuWeather said.

The forecasting service added that signs are pointing toward a shift of the polar vortex that may cause snow, rain and other hazardous weather conditions like icy roads in some parts of the Northeast.

Right now, a cold snap is bringing an abrupt November reality check to most of the eastern US that will persist for the rest of the Veterans’ Day weekend. As Accuweather explains, the weather pattern will become even more interesting later in the week because it will feature a meteorological phenomenon called “the Greenland block”.

This pattern consists of relatively high pressure wind pattern near greenland that forces the polar jet stream to move sharply south toward the eastern US.

"Model forecasts have been pretty consistent and increasingly strong with the -NAO," said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with the Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Crawford said the strength of this upcoming Greenland block/negative NAO would be about a "90th percentile event for late November.” In early to mid-November, it’s far more rare.

 

 

The first snow.

A post shared by ??? (@jinyanran927) on

Nov 10, 2017 at 10:10am PST

 

While the pattern is of relatively high confidence, there are some impacts we"re more confident about and others that remain uncertain this far out in time.

One near certainty in this pattern is another series of plunges of colder air deep into the Midwest and East by the weekend before Thanksgiving.

If the weather pattern holds, it’d be impossible to rule out a powerful snowstorm arriving just in time for the Thanksgiving travel season. Indeed, snow is already falling in the Chicago area.

However, none of this is certain - yet. It’s merely just something to keep an eye on, Accuweather’s meteorologists said.

Inconvenient? Record Arctic Sea Ice Growth In September

According to data from The Danish Meteorological Institute, since hitting its earliest minimum extent since 1997, Arctic sea ice has been expanding at a phenomenal rate.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

As notalotofpeopleknowthat blog details, it is already greater than at the same date in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2015.

Put another way, it is the fourth highest extent in the last ten years.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

Even more remarkably, ice growth since the start of the month is actually the greatest on record, since daily figures started to be kept in 1987.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

Experts call this phenomenon the final collapse of sea ice!

*  *  *

While we are sure this is just "transitory", it appears the "science" is not as "settled" as we thought...

Source: Branco

New Climate Study Throws Wrench In Global Warming Debate: "Our New Technical Paper... Will Likely Be Ignored"

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

It’s not surprising that so many people believe the idea that global warming is being caused almost entirely by human activity, given the fact that most scientists seem to believe the same thing. But scientists should probably ask themselves why there is still such a large cohort of “deniers” as they like to call them, who are adamant that anthropogenic climate change is a scam.

The reason why is that the scientific community has been caught many times tampering with climate data and making outlandish claims. The celebrities and politicians who promote this cause have also been caught on many occasions, living in palatial mansions, flying across the world in private jets, and generally just living lives of excess that produce so much more carbon that the average person. Given these facts, how could anyone take the global warming arguments seriously?

What also doesn’t help their cause, is when reputable scientists question climate change dogma. Recently, two Australian scientists published a paper that explains why the shifts in global temperature that we see today, are likely entirely natural.

Jennifer Marohasy, a scientist with a rather long list of impressive credentials, which includes the founding of The Climate Modeling Laboratory, opens her startling climate report with a dose of reality.

“Our new technical paper … will likely be ignored,” she writes at The Spectator Australia.

She goes on to explain why, “Because after applying the latest big data technique to six 2,000 year-long proxy-temperature series we cannot confirm that recent warming is anything but natural – what might have occurred anyway, even if there was no industrial revolution.”

At the crux of their argument, is the fact that global temperatures were actually warmer during the middle ages, which used to be considered common knowledge for years, and is often denied by many climate change proponents today. These researchers confirmed that the world was indeed warmer before the industrial revolution. And that of course suggests that human activity doesn’t have nearly as much of an impact on the climate as most environmentalists claim.

Typical of most such temperature series, it zigzags up and down while showing two rising trends: the first peaks about 1200 AD and corresponds with a period known as the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), while the second peaks in 1980 and then shows decline...

There are, however, multiple lines of evidence indicating it was about a degree warmer across Europe during the MWP – corresponding with the 1200 AD rise in our Northern Hemisphere composite. In fact, there are oodles of published technical papers based on proxy records that provide a relatively warm temperature profile for this period.

Bottom line, don’t ever let anyone tell you that the climate change debate is over, and that the science on the matter is settled. Don’t let them fool you into thinking that there’s a strict consensus among scientists regarding global warming (and even if there was a 100% consensus, just because a lot of people believe something doesn’t mean it’s true).

The people promoting the theory of man-made global warming have been caught lying too many times for us to blindly follow them.

Research Team Slams Global Warming Data In New Report: "Not Reality... Totally Inconsistent With Credible Temperature Data"

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

As world leaders, namely in the European Union, attack President Trump for pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement which would have saddled Americans with billions upon billions of dollars in debt and economic losses, a new bombshell report that analyzed Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) data produced by NASA, the NOAA and HADLEY proves the President was right on target with his refusal to be a part of the new initiative.

According to the report, which has been peer reviewed by administrators, scientists and researchers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T.), and several of America’s leading universities, the data is completely bunk:

In this research report, the most important surface data adjustment issues are identified and past changes in the previously reported historical data are quantified. It was found that each new version of GAST has nearly always exhibited a steeper warming linear trend over its entire history. And, it was nearly always accomplished by systematically removing the previously existing cyclical temperature pattern. This was true for all three entities providing GAST data measurement, NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU.

As a result, this research sought to validate the current estimates of GAST using the best available relevant data. This included the best documented and understood data sets from the U.S. and elsewhere as well as global data from satellites that provide far more extensive global coverage and are not contaminated by bad siting and urbanization impacts. Satellite data integrity also benefits from having cross checks with Balloon data.

The conclusive findings of this research are that the three GAST data sets are not a valid representation of reality. In fact, the magnitude of their historical data adjustments, that removed their cyclical temperature patterns, are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data. Thus, it is impossible to conclude from the three published GAST data sets that recent years have been the warmest ever –despite current claims of record setting warming.

Finally, since GAST data set validity is a necessary condition for EPA’s GHG/CO2 Endangerment Finding, it too is invalidated by these research findings. (Full Abstract Report)

Of course, this won’t stop global climate normalcy deniers from saying it’s all one big conspiracy to destroy the earth. They’ll naturally argue that data adjustments to the temperatures need to be made for a variety of reasons, which is something the report doesn’t dispute. What it does show, however, is that these “adjustments” always prove to be to the upside. Always warmer, never cooler:

While the notion that some “adjustments” to historical data might need to be made is not challenged, logically it would be expected that such historical temperature data adjustments would sometimes raise these temperatures, and sometimes lower them. This situation would mean that the impact of such adjustments on the temperature trend line slope is uncertain. However, each new version of GAST has nearly always exhibited a steeper warming linear trend over its entire history.

In short: The evidence has been falsified.

Karl Denninger sums it up succinctly:

It is therefore quite-clear that the data has been intentionally tampered with.

Since this has formed the basis for plans to steal literal trillions of dollars and has already resulted in the forced extraction of hundreds of billions in aggregate for motorists and industry this quite-clearly constitutes the largest economic fraud ever perpetrated in the world.

I call for the indictment and prosecution of every person and organization involved, asset-stripping all of them to their literal underwear.

The real data looks something like this:

(Via ZeroHedge.com)

And the establishment, along with their fanatical global warming myrmidons, continue to push the need for massive, costly initiatives to reduce green house gases and global temperatures to “normal” levels.

The problem, of course, is that there is no global warming according to the above referenced report.

Moreover, none of those supporting the Paris Climate Agreement and other initiatives have any idea what these behemoth regulations will actually do to curb climate change, as evidenced by the following video of Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, who despite his best efforts, can’t seem to figure out exactly how these agreements actually lower temperatures and help Americans:

Trump EPA Chief Says Carbon Dioxide Not "Primary Contributor To Global Warming"

In an interview surely to get the blood of America"s hyper-sensitive environmentalists boiling, which we sincerely hope doesn"t result in any adverse harm to global temperatures, Trump"s new head of the Environmental Protection Agency, Scott Pruitt, appeared on CNBC to say that, among other things, the verdict is still out on man-made global warming.  Per CNBC:

"I think that measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do and there"s tremendous disagreement about the degree of impact, so no, I would not agree that it"s a primary contributor to the global warming that we see ," he told CNBC"s "Squawk Box."

"But we don"t know that yet. ... We need to continue the debate and continue the review and the analysis."

Of course, Democrats and environmentalists vehemently opposed Pruitt"s nomination to lead the EPA due to his past efforts to push back on the so-called "Paris Accord" as well as other rules he viewed as over-regulation under Obama.

Pruitt also called the Paris Agreement, an international accord aimed at mitigating the impacts of climate change, "a bad deal." He said it puts the United States on a different playing field than developing countries like China and India.

"I happen to think the Paris accord, the Paris treaty, or the Paris Agreement, if you will, should have been treated as a treaty, should have gone through senate confirmation. That"s a concern," he said.

The Paris Agreement was negotiated by the State Department, and future adherence to U.S. commitments made under Obama will be guided by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

Of course, with "radical" ideas like the one below forming the foundation of his EPA leadership platform, we can understand the enviros" concerns...this kind of rational thought simply will not stand at the EPA.

Yesterday I spoke with EPA employees and shared my vision for the agency and leadership principles. pic.twitter.com/E3as8HsfdJ

— Administrator Pruitt (@EPAScottPruitt) February 22, 2017