New York City Is Within Hurricane Jose's 5-Day "Cone Of Uncertainty"

In what were perhaps the two biggest news stories of the past month, Hurricanes Irma and Harvey devastated the American south, disrupting local industry, destroying homes and critical infrastructure and dumping millions of gallons of raw sewage onto city streets - leading to the most destructive beginning to hurricane season in years. Meanwhile, cosmopolitan Yankees looked on in horror (with perhaps a touch of smugness) as they watched their southern neighbors being paddled out of flooded Texas homes by national guardsmen, or marooned in the seemingly endless lines of traffic snaking out of southern Florida, northeasterners now have their own storm to worry about.

And now, according to the National Weather Service, those same onlookers might be forced to endure similar hardships thanks to Hurricane Jose, already on its way to becoming a category one storm. Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center say a wide stretch of the eastern and northeastern US, from Maryland up through Cape Cod, is within Jose"s five-day “cone of uncertainty” - meaning that a fully fledged hurricane could make landfall in or around New York City, potentially dealing another crushing blow to the city"s infrastructure after the city"s subway system has not yet finished repairing the damage from Superstorm Sandy, which took place five years ago.

11AM Update on Jose: Much of our area is now in the 5 day cone of uncertainty. Be prepared for potential impacts Tuesday/Wednesday. pic.twitter.com/Qvy502vG8o

— NWS New York NY (@NWSNewYorkNY) September 15, 2017

Presently, the storm is headed northwest at 9 mph past North Carolina, and may bring one to two inches of rain to North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Monday, and heavier rains of two to four inches to Eastern Massachusetts beginning on Tuesday. The large waves from the storm could cause high surf and considerable beach erosion along the shores of the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts during this period, according to Weather Underground.

WU added that there’s an 18% chance of tropical storm-force winds in New York City between Tuesday and Wednesday, said Jeff Masters.

But NWS New York has wasted no time issuing a storm advisory for the northeast, urging east-coast residents to monitor the storm – though, while waves might impact coastal North Carolina, the full impact of the storm remains unclear.

Here are the key messages for #Jose for Advisory 41- East coast of the US from N Carolina northward should monitor https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/XNiGmGu5VG

— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) September 15, 2017

The storm, currently about 360 miles (579 kilometers) northeast of the Bahamas, is expected to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane in the next 48 hours as it moves through the Atlantic Ocean, Bloomberg reports. Jose’s path could put it near New Jersey and New York by Wednesday morning, though it may weaken to a tropical storm again by then, the NHC said.

As Bloomberg notes, the storm may add to an already devastating 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. In 2012, Superstorm Sandy caused $70 billion of damage after hitting the New York metropolitan region.

While Hurricane Harvey temporarily shuttered as much as 30% of the country’s oil-refining capacity, Jose’s impact on energy markets will likely be much more limit – though it could affect five refineries along the East Coast that are able to process about 1.1 million barrels a day of oil, and disrupt tankers carrying crude oil, petrochemicals and refined products along the Atlantic seaboard, “particularly those making deliveries to New York Harbor,” said Shunondo Basu, a Bloomberg New Energy Finance meteorologist and natural gas analyst in New York.

To be sure, some forecasters see Jose staying far enough offshore to avoid any major impact to the US. The NHC’s margin of error for a storm five days away is about 225 miles, on average, according to Bloomberg.

AccuWeather, which correctly forecast the magnitude of the damage that Texas would experience from Hurricane Harvey’s “one-in-a-thousand-year” floods, expects Jose to passing within 200 miles of the northeast - though a landfall in New England – possibly in the Cape Cod area of Massachusetts - during the middle of the week can’t be ruled out, senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said in a statement.

Meteorologists should have a clearer picture of the storm’s path in relation to the US early next week.

Until them, concerned citizens might want to start stocking up on supplies now - just in case. Stores in south Florida started running out of water, gas and other essentials nearly a week before Irma made landfall.

Meanwhile Two More Hurricanes Form: Jose Right Behind Irma, Katia In The Gulf

As previewed yesterday, moments ago the National Hurricane Center said that "quickly strenghtening Jose" which has been quietly following in Irma"s foosteps, has become a hurricane.

Located about 1040 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, Jose is headed at 16 mph on a steady west-northwest track, steered by the same ridge that is helping to direct Irma.

On its current track, Jose would reach the northern Leeward Islands by Saturday, but the ridge is predicted to weaken enough by Saturday to allow Jose to arc just northeast of the islands. Conditions are favorable for Jose to strengthen into a hurricane by later Wednesday, and it could approach Category 3 strength by late in the week. About 25% of the European model ensemble members bring Jose into the northern Leeward Islands, but all of the GFS ensemble members keep Jose north of the islands.

The news means that there are now two major hurricanse barreling toward Florida in the Atlantic, as shown in the map below.

Meanwhile, Katia, which was christened as a Tropical Storm by NHC at 5 am EDT Wednesday, was also just upgraded to a Hurricane.

Located in the Bay of Campeche about 175 miles north of Veracruz, Mexico, Katia is embedded in a very moist environment with numerous showers and thunderstorms along and south of a frontal zone (see Figure 9), and the storm’s core has become gradually more organized. Wind shear will be dropping from about 10-15 knots to around 5-10 knots by Friday, which also supports development.

Models and the Euro and GFS ensembles are unanimous in drifting Katia for a couple of days before driving it southwestward into the Mexican coast this weekend. Extremely heavy rains of 10 – 20” are possible along parts of the northeast Mexican coast, especially in northern Veracruz, as Katia approaches and moves inland.

Scientist Confirms: Harvey Caused A "1-In-1,000-Year Flood"

Scientists have confirmed what one renowned weather forecaster has suspected for days: Hurricane Harvey was a “1-in-1,000-year flood.”

That’s according to researchers at the University of Wisconsin’s Space Science and Engineering Center, who claim there is nothing in the historical record that rivals the devastation resulting from the flooding in southwest Texas, which has forced more than 30,000 Texans into temporary shelters.

“There is nothing in the historical record that rivals this, according to Shane Hubbard, the Wisconsin researcher who made and mapped this calculation. “In looking at many of these events [in the United States], I’ve never seen anything of this magnitude or size,” he said. “This is something that hasn’t happened in our modern era of observations.”

Of course, one reason for this might be that the modern urban environment is covered in concrete and asphalt, which makes it impossible for floodwater to absorb into the ground, exacerbating the disaster.

Hubbard’s calculations, which he shared with the Washington Post, only accentuate the massive scale of the flooding.

• At least 20 inches of rain fell over an area (nearly 29,000 square miles) larger than 10 states, including West Virginia and Maryland (by a factor of more than two).


• At least 30 inches of rain fell over an area (more than 11,000 square miles) equivalent to Maryland’s size.

To that, we’d like to add the nearly 52 inches of rain recorded by the National Weather Service in Cedar Bayou, Texas, which broke the continental U.S. record.

Making matters worse, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has just updated its forecast for what it is now referring to as a "rapidly intensifying" Category 2 hurricane in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. Some models see the storm making landfall in Florida, while others see it landing somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, meaning that another powerful storm could ravage Texas just two weeks after Hurricane Harvey, leaving locals little time to recover.
 

"Rapidly Intensifying" Hurricane Irma Barreling Straight Toward The East Coast

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has just updated its forecast for what it is now referring to as a "rapidly intensifying" Category 2 hurricane in the Eastern Atlantic ocean and the results look disastrous for a large swath of the Caribbean and Southeastern United States.  Here is a brief summary of Hurricane Irma from the National Hurricane Center released at 11AM EST:

Satellite images indicate that Irma is rapidly intensifying. Very deep convection has formed in the central dense overcast, which is now displaying a small and clearing eye.  Dvorak estimates were up to 77 kt at 1200 UTC, and since the cloud pattern continues to quickly become more organized, the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 33.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion is forecast through early Friday, followed by a generally westward motion on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma is forecast to become a major hurricane by tonight and is expected to be an extremely dangerous hurricane for the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).

A 50% chance that the northern Antilles experiences a Hurricane landfall next week; topography may cause models some issues with intensity. pic.twitter.com/ux1YzICbMD

— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) August 31, 2017

Irma is expected to grow into a "major hurricane" within the next 24 hours with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph before growing even stronger throughout the weekend and eventually becoming a Category 4 storm.

The storm is moving west at roughly 10 mph and isn"t expected to pose its first threat to land until next week.

That said, longer term models suggest that Irma could make a turn to the northwest towards the middle of next week and head straight for Florida.

Meanwhile, other computer models predict that Hurricane Irma will move through the Gulf of Mexico and make its U.S. landfall in Texas just 2 weeks after Hurricane Harvey devastated the state.

Major development: The best ECMWF EPS members via initialization score are west of ensemble mean track, taking #Irma into the Gulf of Mexico pic.twitter.com/qT3RQTbZsy

— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) August 31, 2017

That said, a lot could obviously change over the next week and, as the NHC notes, Irma is currently tracking further south than models predicted as of yesterday.

Irma has moved somewhat south of and slower than all of the model guidance since yesterday.  Consequently, it stayed longer over the warmer ocean temperatures away from the drier air to the north, possibly allowing the rapid strengthening.  Irma should move over cooler waters tomorrow with some increase in mid-level dry air, so hopefully the hurricane"s intensity will level off by then.  In a few days, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters with light shear shown by all of the model guidance.  This should promote further strengthening of Irma, and the NHC forecast shows an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane next week, similar to the solutions provided by the HWRF and the ECMWF models. The intensity forecast is raised considerably from the previous one due to initial trends, and is on the high end of the guidance at long range.

Of course, with FEMA resources already stretched thin by Hurricane Harvey, another U.S. landfall of a Cat 4 hurricane could be devastating blow.