Keystone XL Pipeline Shut Down After 5,000-Barrel Spill In South Dakota

Well this is awkward.  After months/years of protests targeting the Keystone XL pipeline from environmentalists worried about oil spills, TransCanada has now been forced to shut down the pipeline following...drum roll please...a 5,000 barrel oil spill in South Dakota.  According to The Hill, the pipeline was taken offline at 6am this morning following a leak that was discovered about 35 miles south of a pumping station in Marshall County, South Dakota.

Workers took the Keystone oil pipeline offline on Thursday after it spilled 5,000 barrels of oil in rural South Dakota, officials said.

 

A TransCanada crew shut down the pipeline at 6 a.m. Thursday morning after detecting an oil leak along the line, the company said. The leak was detected along a stretch of the pipeline about 35 miles south of a pumping station in Marshall County, South Dakota.

 

TransCanada estimates the pipeline leaked 5,000 barrels of oil, or about 210,000 gallons, before going offline. The company said it"s working with state regulators and the Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration to assess the situation.

 

The South Dakota Department of Environment and Natural Resources heard about the leak at about 10:30 a.m. Thursday, ABC affiliate KSFY reported.

For those who aren"t familiar with the project, the 1,179 mile Keystone XL pipeline links Canada’s Alberta oil sands to U.S. refineries.  While a portion of the pipeline has been operating, part of it has still not been approved by state regulators.

Here is the statement on the incident posted by TransCanada earlier this morning:

At approximately 6 a.m. CST (5 a.m. MST) today, we safely shut down the Keystone pipeline after we detected a pressure drop in our operating system resulting from an oil leak that is under investigation.

 

The estimated volume of the leak is approximately 5,000 barrels. The section of pipe along a right-of-way approximately 35 miles (56 kilometres) south of the Ludden pump station in Marshall County, South Dakota was completely isolated within 15 minutes and emergency response procedures were activated.

 

The safety of the public and environment are our top priorities and we will continue to provide updates as they become available.

As you may recall, former President Barack Obama opposed the completion of the pipeline, but the Trump administration granted a permit for it in March. That said, Nebraska state regulators still need to approve the project in their state and a decision was expected from the Nebraska Public Service Commission next week....somehow we suspect that decision might be delayed.

The five members of the Nebraska Public Service Commission will vote on a proposed order for the Keystone XL pipeline on Nov. 20, the agency announced on Monday, though it didn’t detail what that decision might be.

 

Approval from the Nebraska commission is one of several tasks facing Keystone XL developer TransCanada, which hopes to build the pipeline and deliver oil from Alberta, Canada, to the Gulf of Mexico.

 

TransCanada reapplied for its Nebraska permit in February, putting the decision in the hands of the Public Service Commission. It applied to follow the same route bisecting Nebraska that the state’s governor approved in 2013, before President Obama rejected federal permits for the pipeline.

Ironically, Trump touted the Keystone XL pipeline as "the greatest technology known to man or woman" when he approved it back in March...oops.

Today, I was pleased to announce the official approval of the presidential permit for the #KeystonePipeline. A great day for American jobs! pic.twitter.com/5ga6XmpStG

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 24, 2017

Stockman Slams "The Deep State's 'Bogus Iranian Threat'"

Authored by David Stockman via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

Last week, we identified a permanent fiscal crisis as one of the quadruple witching forces arising in October 2017 which will shatter the global financial bubble. Then, the Donald made the crisis dramatically worse by decertifying the Iranian nuke deal, thereby reinforcing another false narrative that enables the $1 trillion Warfare State to continue bleeding the nation"s fiscal solvency.

In a word, the whole notion that Iran is a national security threat and state sponsor of terrorism is just as bogus as the Russian meddling story or the claim that the chain of events resulting from the coup d" etat fostered by Washington on the streets of Kiev in February 2014 is evidence of Russian expansionism and aggression.

Likewise, it"s part of the same tissue of lies which led to Washington"s massive, destructive and counterproductive interventions in Syria and Libya -- when neither regime posed an iota of threat to the safety and security of the American homeland.

To the contrary, all of these false narratives are the cover stories which justify the Warfare State"s massive draw on the nation"s broken finances. We will get to the Big Lie about Iran momentarily, but first it is useful to demonstrate just how enormously excessive the nation"s defense budget actually is, and why the denizens of the Imperial City---especially the neocon ideologues----find it necessary to peddle such threadbare untruths.

Spoiler alert: Iran has actually never attacked a single foreign nation in modern history whereas Washington has chosen to unilaterally intervene in or arm virtually every surrounding country in the region.

Here"s some historical context that dramatizes our point about Washington"s hideously excessive spending on defense. Back in 1962 on the eve of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the US defense budget was $52 billion, which would amount to $340 billion in today"s (2017$) purchasing power.

Needless to say, the world came to the brink of nuclear Armageddon at a time when the Soviet Union was at the peak of its power and was armed to the teeth. In addition to thousands of nuclear warheads deliverable by missiles and bombers, it had 50,000 tanks facing NATO and nearly 4 million men under arms.

The now open Soviet archives, of course, show that the Soviets had far more bark than bite and never conceived of attacking the US or even western Europe; they didn"t remotely have the wherewithal or the strategic nerve.

Nevertheless, by 1962 false moves and provocations by both sides had created a state of "cold war" that was real. Yet even then, the $340 billion military budget was more than adequate to deter the Soviet threat. Nor is that our view as an armchair historian.

The 1962 defense budget was essentially President Dwight D. Eisenhower"s budget, and it is one that he had drastically slashed from the $500 billion (in today"s dollars) he had inherited from Truman at the end of the Korean War.

That is to say, the greatest general who ever led American forces had concluded that $340 billion was enough. And that came as he left office warning about just the opposite----the danger that the military/industrial complex would gain inordinate political power and pursue foreign policies which required ever larger military spending.

Unlike standard cold warriors, Ike believed that the ultimate national security resource of America was a healthy capitalist economy and that excessive government debt was deeply inimical to that outcome.

That"s why he balanced the Federal budget three times during his tenure and presided over a fiscal consolidation---thanks to sharply reduced defense spending---that generated an average deficit of hardly 1 percent of GDP. That"s an outcome scarcely imaginable at all in the present world.

Even then, the Soviet empire with all the captive republics that have become independent nations since 1991 (e.g. Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan etc.) had a GDP in 1960 that was estimated to be 50 percent the size of the US. So Ike"s bet was that capitalist growth over time was the ultimate source of national strength; that a healthy domestic economy would eventually leave the centralized command-and-control Soviet economy in the dust; and that ultimately the Kremlin"s brand of statist socialism and militarism would fail.

He was right. Russia today is a shadow of what Ronald Reagan called the Evil Empire. Its GDP of $1.3 trillion is smaller than that of the New York metro area ($1.6 trillion) and only 7 percent of total US GDP.

Moreover, unlike the militarized Soviet economy which devoted upwards of 40 percent of output to defense, the current Russian defense budget of $60 billion is just 4.5 percent of its vastly shrunken GDP.

So how in the world did the national security apparatus convince the Donald that we need the $700 billion defense program for FY 2018----12X bigger than Russia"s---- that he just signed into law?

What we mean, of course, is how do you explain that---- beyond the fact that the Donald knows virtually nothing about national security policy and history; and, to boot, is surrounded by generals who have spent a lifetime scouring the earth for enemies and threats to repel and reasons for more weapons and bigger forces.

The real answer, however, is both simple and consequential. To wit, the entire prosperity and modus operandi of the Imperial City is based on a panoply of "threats" that are vastly exaggerated or even purely invented; they retain their currency by virtue of endless repetition in the groupthink that passes for analysis. We"d actually put it in the category of cocktail party chatter.

For crying out loud. Why is Russia considered a threat to the American homeland when it doesn"t even have a blue water navy or any other basis to project offensive power to the North American continent?

Indeed, its "attack" fleet consists of a  single, 40-year old smoke-belching aircraft carrier that could never get out of the Mediterranean bathtub ringed by overwhelming US forces.

Beyond conventional offensive power there is the non-power of its 1500 or so deployable nuclear warheads. Whatever you may think of Vlad Putin"s kleptomania and hard-edged suppression of internal dissent, he is surely the "Cool Hand Luke" of the modern world. Do you think he would be rash or suicidal enough to threaten the US with nuclear weapons?

Or for that matter that Russia with its pipsqueak $1.3 trillion GDP and limited military capacity actually intends to invade and occupy Europe, which has a GDP of $17 trillion and sufficient military force---even without the US----to make such a project unthinkable.

Likewise, so what if the Chinese want to waste money building sand castles (i.e. man-made islands with military uses)in the South China Sea. It"s their backyard---just as the Gulf of Mexico is ours.

Besides, the great Red Ponzi is utterly dependent upon exporting $2 trillion per years of goods to the US, Western Europe, Japan, South Korea etc. Without those markets its massively leveraged, speculation-ridden, malinvested bubble economy would collapse in 6 months or less. So does anyone really think that the PLA (People Liberation Army) will be bombing 4,000 Wal-Marts in America any time soon?

The truth is, the US defense budget is hideously oversized for a reason so obvious that it constitutes the ultimate elephant in the room. No matter how you slice it,  there just are no real big industrialized, high tech countries in the world which can threaten the American homeland or even have the slightest intention of doing so.

Indeed, to continue with our historical benchmarks, the American homeland has not been so immune to foreign military threat since WW II. Yet during all those years of true peril, it never spent close too the Donald"s $700 billion boondoggle.

For instance, during the height of LBJs Vietnam folly (1968) defense spending in today"s dollars was about $400 billion. And even at the top of Reagan"s utterly unnecessary military building up (by the 1980s the Soviet Union was collapsing under the weight of its own socialist dystopia), total US defense spending was just $550 billion.

That gets us to the bogus Iranian threat. It originated in the early 1990s when the neocon"s in the George HW Bush Administration realized that with the cold war"s end, the Warfare State was in grave danger of massive demobilization like the US had done after every war until 1945.

So among many other invented two-bit threats, the Iranian regime was demonized in order to keep the Imperial City in thrall to its purported national security threat and in support of the vast global armada of military forces, bases and occupations needed to contain it (including the Fifth Fleet in the Persian Gulf and US bases throughout the region).

The truth, however, is that according to the 2008 NIE ( National Intelligence Estimates) of the nation"s 17 intelligence agency, the Iranian"s never had a serious nuclear weapons program, and the small research effort that they did have was disbanded by orders of the Ayatollah Khamenei in 2003.

Likewise, what the Imperial City claims to be state sponsored terror is actually nothing more than Iran"s foreign policy---something that every sovereign state on the planet is permitted to have.

Thus, as the leader of the minority Shiite schism of the Islamic world, Iran has made political and confessional allliances with various Shiite regimes in the region. These include the one that Washington actually installed in Bagdad; the Alawite/Shitte regime in Syria; the largest political party and representative of 40 percent of the population in Lebanon(Hezbollah); and the Houthi/Shitte of Yemen, who historically occupied the northern parts of the country and are now under savage attack by American weapons supplied to Saud Arabia.

In the case of both Syria and Iraq, their respective governments invited Iranian help, which is also their prerogative as sovereign nations. Ironically, it was the Shiite Crescent alliance of Iran/Assad/Hezbollah that bears much of the credit for defeating ISIS on the ground in Mosul, Aleppo, Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor and elsewhere in the now largely defunct Islamic State.

There should be no doubt about the consequence: Trump"s decertification of the Iran nuclear deal will reinforce the neocon dominance of the Republican party and insure that the nation"s $1 trillion Warfare State remains fully entrenched.

Needless to say, that will also insure that the America"s gathering fiscal crisis will turn into an outright Fiscal Calamity in the years just ahead.

Too Good For Too Long...

I"m writing this from my home in Sonoma County at the end of an intense week of witnessing firsthand the devastation caused by the many current fires burning in northern California. While it"s hard to focus on anything other than the moment-to-moment developments of this still-unfolding disaster (which I"ve been chronicling here), it"s already clear that the implications for my part of the state will last for many, many years to come.

It"s amazing how instantly the status quo where I live has changed. The world my neighbors and I lived in when we all went to bed on Sunday night simply no longer existed by the time we woke up on Monday morning. Lives have been lost. Entire neighborhoods - thousands of homes - have burned to the ground. Businesses, hospitals and schools are now shuttered.

Having now experienced this personally -- on top of watching news reports over the previous weeks of similarly abrupt "before/after" transitions in Houston, Florida, Puerto Rico, Mexico City, Las Vegas and Catalonia -- I have a new-found appreciation for the maxim that when it arrives, change happens quickly -- usually much more quickly than folks ever imagined, catching the general public off-guard and unprepared.

We humans tend to think linearly and comparatively. In other words, we usually assume the near future will look a lot like the recent past. And it does much of the time.

But other times it doesn"t. And that"s where the danger lies.

The Cruel Math

In 1987 a Danish physicist named Per Bak released a landmark paper introducing the concept of self-organized criticality. Bak observed that complex systems draw stability through an ongoing cycle of corrective collapses that keep the overall system from becoming too over-extended.

His point is best understood by watching a sand pile being formed. The pile rises as more grains of sand are added to it, until it hits a critical mass. At that point, the addition of more sand grains is likely to cause a limited collapse of the pile. The more grains of sand added, the more frequent these localized collapses are:

The key takeaway is that the end result of these collapses is that the overall size and shape of the sand pile as a whole is maintained -- i.e. the smaller corrections are necessary for maintaining the ongoing stability of the larger system (in other words, the sand pile retains a constant shape over time)

Without them, the system would grow unchecked until toppled by other laws of physics, yet at this point the energy displacement of the collapse is so large that the system is destroyed or re-set (in other words, the sand pile would rise in height over time until it collapsed entirely)

In his later 1996 book, How Nature Works, Bak showed how the same rules apply to the complex systems around us -- earthquakes, traffic jams, biological evolution, forest fires, the distribution of galaxies in the universe — and financial markets, too.

His findings are universal to complex systems. Ongoing smaller corrections are necessary for long-term stability of the larger system. And while you can"t predict exactly when the next correction will occur, the longer it takes to happen, the larger it will be (as it has more pent-up energy to displace). 

Another way to look at this is: If the smaller corrections don"t happen, the system is being set up for a much bigger and more painful collapse in the future.

In many ways, we"re seeing this manifest via the rash of recent disasters.

Let"s look at hurricanes. 2010-2016 was one of the most mild periods on record when it comes to damaging storms making landfall in the US. For whatever reason, the usual seasonal "smaller corrections" just weren"t happening as frequently in the Atlantic.

Bak"s work would predict an increasing probability of an unusually busy season of destructive hurricanes to arrive. And, right on cue, 2017 has now been recognized as the 9th most-active Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history (and the season isn"t over yet!). Underscoring the point, September 2017 proved to be the #1 single most active month for Atlantic tropical cyclones on record.

Similarly, the US West is coming off of a long stretch of regrettable forestry management practices -- logging large trees, fire suppression, and livestock grazing -- which reduced the natural occurrence and frequency of smaller-scale forest fires that prevented the build up of combustible flora. As a result, the system has become much more vulnerable to unchecked fires -- a situation made worse by the effects of the prolonged recent drought (just as the warmer temperature of the Gulf of Mexico is making hurricanes there more potent). Which is why the American West is experiencing its third most severe fire season in history this year.

Et Tu, S&P?

Don"t forget that Bak"s rules for complex systems also apply to financial markets.

With that in mind, it makes the inexorable mania and lack of micro-corrections since 2009 downright frightening. Just take a look at this price chart of the S&P 500, which is currently in its second-longest-ever bull market run:

We see that as stock prices have been on a one-way ride higher over the years, downside volatility has dried up, to the point where it now practically no longer exists:

Going back 55 years, the average cumulative intra-day losses over a 25-day period is about 660 basis points, or 6.6%. As of yesterday (October 10), the last 25 days have seen a grand total intra-day loss of just 96 basis points, or 0.96%. If that seems small, it is.

In fact, outside of the period ending November 26, 2014, this is the smallest cumulative 25-day intra-day loss in the past 46 years – and the only one registering less than 100 basis points.

(Source)

Just as (until this fall) with the US east coast and hurricanes, or like my corner of California with wildfires, things since 2010 have been "too good for too long" for the financial markets. The usual cycle of smaller corrections has not been allowed to happen, resulting in an unnatural build-up of the system to a height from which a destructive re-set is increasingly probable.

How much longer this can continue is anyone guess. But Bak"s work explains why it can"t go on forever, and why the resulting collapse will be more devastating the longer it takes to happen. And with the world central banking cartel set to reduce total global QE -- just as with hotter water temperatures in the Gulf -- the conditions for catastrophy are ratcheting up.

We are getting closer and closer to the day when we awake to find the markets we had the day before no longer exist. Change happens that fast, even with financial markets. If you think you"ll be one of the smart ones to sell your current positions before things get too bad, talk to someone who was invested in the market on October 19, 1987 when it suddenly lost nearly 25% of its value in just a few hours.

While you"re at it, talk to someone in Houston, Tampa Bay, Puerto Rico or Mexico City. Or I can put you in touch with one of my friends from Santa Rosa. Any one of them will tell you how stunningly swiftly fate can upend your best-laid plans.

Takeaways From Tragedy

Fortunately this week, I was one of the lucky ones. My family and property were spared.

But I can"t say the same for many in my community. From their loss, as well as from the threat I experienced earlier this week when the fires were much closer, here are some of the key learnings that came out of this crisis:

• Preparation only matters if it"s done in advance. And it matters a LOT -- Those who had "go bags" and disaster kits in place before the fires fared much better than those who didn"t. They were able to evacuate faster, more safely, and with better self-sufficiency. And even a few small steps can make a big difference. I found that already having a stash of emergency cash as well as several containers full of gas for my car put me at a great advantage when it first looked like we were going to have flee our home. Putting it more bluntly: if you don"t have some sort of emergency prep kit at this point, you"re being unforgivably reckless. Need guidance on what to put in it? Read our free Guide To Emergency Preparedness.


• People matter much more than property -- for those who had only minutes to flee the flames, they only cared about getting their loved ones to safety. All the "stuff" they accumulated in life didn"t even factor into their thinking at that moment. The big learning here? Don"t let possessions take an undue importance in your life. A disaster can quickly take them from you, and when forced to choose, you"ll pick people over things every time. So instead, place your focus on nurturing the relationships you value and maximizing the quality of time you can spend with those people. If you could use some professional help in this area and are having trouble finding it, consider contacting the therapist we endorse (full disclosure: she"s my wife)


• Community is priceless -- no one can be prepared for everything. Community will provide for the things you lack. I"ve been blown away by the magnitude of the response from the generous folks living both within and without Sonoma County. As I wrote last week, tragedy offers a way for people to step into their best selves. Invest in your community now, so that it"s as robust as possible when you need to count on it. Looking for ways to build community? We have a free guide for that, too.

These learnings apply to any crisis, but of course, depending on the type -- natural, financial or otherwise -- additional preparations come into play.

In our recent report Part 2 -- Crisis Preparation: What To Do, we detail out, point-by-point, our complete list of the most important steps concerned individuals should take now -- before another disaster arrives -- to safeguard their investment capital, their property, and the personal security of their families. Because whether caused by Mother Nature or man"s own recklessness, we are due for more crisis. Don"t be caught unprepared. Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

"We Dodged A Bullet": Hurricane Nate Misses New Orleans, Downgraded To Tropical Depression

Residents of coastal towns and cities across the Southeastern US are breathing a sigh of relief as Hurricane Nate is rapidly weakening after twice making landfall in the Southeastern US late Saturday into early Sunday. The NHC has downgraded it to a tropical depression as it moves inland over Alabama; NHC has also discontinued all storm-related warnings for coastal areas, though heavy rains and flooding continue in some areas. The storm"s maximum sustained winds have dropped to 40 mph, and as of late-morning Sunday, the storm was traveling near Birmingham, Alabama.

Many of the Hurricane watches and warnings issued before the storm made landfall have been discontinued.

Meteorologist Jim Cantore shared this video of the storm taken in Orange Beach Alabama shortly before Nate made its first landfall. Viewers can clearly see a water spout forming offshore.

Here it is: pic.twitter.com/mrVOrhwH6y

— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) October 7, 2017

Nate battered coastal cities with storm surges as high as five feet, flooding parts of downtown Biloxi Mississippi. The highest storm surge by this point was 4.7 feet at Shell Beach, about 15 miles east-southeast of New Orleans, according to readings from tide gauges in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

Videos circulating online showed floodwaters rising in the lobby of the Golden Nugget Casino in Biloxi.

Storm surge coming into parking lot of casino in Biloxi #HurricaneNate pic.twitter.com/CQBnQdG0e7

— Mike Theiss (@MikeTheiss) October 8, 2017

#StormSurge coming into lobby of Golden Nugget casino in Biloxi #HurricaneNate pic.twitter.com/sYeHT1aMzI

— Mike Theiss (@MikeTheiss) October 8, 2017

#StormSurge coming inside entrance of Golden Nugget casino in Biloxi #HurricaneNate pic.twitter.com/Sv0wwIbjWu

— Mike Theiss (@MikeTheiss) October 8, 2017

Flooding was also documented in Mobile, Alabama.

Road blocked by dock pushed in from storm surge #HurricaneNate @City_of_Mobile #Mobile #Nate #flooding pic.twitter.com/ovDnqtlLUQ

— Michael Schubert (@Schubacabra) October 8, 2017

This was a little hairy ???? #HurricaneNate #Nate @City_of_Mobile #NeedaBoat #StormSurge pic.twitter.com/UFVqDdTdIy

— Michael Schubert (@Schubacabra) October 8, 2017

Though the storm was much more mild than many had feared, it still left tens of thousands of utility customers without power.

Alabama Power reported Sunday morning that about 59,000 customers were without power, 56,000 of which were in Mobile.

In Mississippi, 50,000 customers were without power, according to a spokesman for the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency. More than 10,000 customers were affected by outages in the Florida panhandle, according to Gulf Power.

Officials in New Orleans were particularly relieved after ordering mandatory evacuations and imposing an early curfew to remain in effect until storm conditions subside. Nate moved sharply east after making landfall, sparing New Orleans from a direct hit.

Nate moved east of New Orleans, sparing the city the worst of the storm.

New Orleans had spent most of Saturday under a hurricane warning that was lifted around 7 p.m. It was downgraded to a tropical storm warning and New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu lifted a citywide curfew. "I think we dodged a bullet," said Louisiana Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser. "I think we got the dry side of the storm."

Nungesser said he had been at Plaquemines Parish, which is at the southeast tip of the state. "We saw no flooding or levees overtopping," he said.

Natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico plunged to its lowest level in three years ahead of the storm as refiners and energy producers evacuated employees from offshore rigs. Here’s a roundup of the closures and evacuations, courtesy of Bloomberg:  

• Operators have shut in 1.62m b/d, or 92%, of U.S. Gulf oil production in preparation for Nate, BSEE says in notice 2.48 bcf/d, or 77%, of natgas production offline


• Natural gas production from Gulf of Mexico plunged to lowest in data going back three years


• Colonial Pipeline says no impact on operations from Nate


• Exxon shut its Julia and Hadrian South fields in Gulf of Mexico


• Shell shutting production at Mars, Ursa, Olympus and Ram Powell hubs in eastern Gulf of Mexico


• ConocoPhillips plans to evacuate its Magnolia crude and natural gas platform of nonessential staff


• Murphy Oil removing staff, curtailing output at Gulf of Mexico platforms and fields that are in path of storm


• BP removing staff from its Atlantis and Mad Dog crude and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico in advance of Nate, says person familiar with matter


• Anadarko planned to remove all staff and shut its Marlin crude and gas production platform Friday


• Enbridge said all personnel from Ship Shoal 332A and Ship Shoal 207 natural gas platforms in Gulf of Mexico will be evacuated


• BHP to fully evacuate its Neptune and Shenzi crude and gas platforms in Gulf of Mexico by Fridaymorning


• Chevron shutting Fourchon, Empire oil terminals; informed shippers deliveries, receipts suspended for duration of storm


• Transco: Transco gas line has seen losses from offshore producers of ~280 mmcf/d as of Saturdayafternoon: Williams spokesman Keith Isbell


• Ports in Mobile, Ala. and New Orleans areas remained shuttered.

Ports near New Orleans and Mobile were closed ahead of the storm and remain out of service.

• Coast Guard shuts ports in Mobile, Ala., New Orleans, La. areas


• Magellan limits ops at Marrero, La., oil terminal before Nate


• Port Fourchon, La., to begin mandatory evacuations at noon local time Saturday


• NuStar shut St. James, La., terminal dock, truck rack

Some refiners were also shut:

• Chevron Pascagoula refinery in Miss. is shutting ahead of Nate, according to a person familiar with operations


• Chevron’s 330K b/d Pascagoula refinery shut Oct. 6: Genscape


• Phillips 66 says Alliance, La., refinery has shut for Hurricane Nate


• Shell Norco is said to cut rates; others continue normal ops

In one of the more dramatic clips to emerge from coverage of the disaster, one reporter broadcasting by the edge of the water in Biloxi was nearly hit with a flying chair.

@mikeseidel you barely missed that flying chair from hitting you! @weatherchannel pic.twitter.com/rPuG8GzFdR

— Tyler Barker (@WXTylerB) October 8, 2017

Luckily, nobody was hurt.

Rig Count Slumps To 3-Month Lows As US Crude Production Collapses

US crude production collapsed this week with most of Texas offline and we would expect rig counts to have continued to stabilize (if not fall) following the lagged track of WTI, and they did - oil rigs dropped 3 to 756, the lowest since June.

As a reminder, Crude production in the Lower 48 collapsed...

This is the biggest week-on-week fall since August 2012, when Hurricane Isaac shut in more than 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production.

WTI prices tumbled today after China refinery cut headlines...

Uncertainty has the “market pulling in their horns ahead of the storm. They are worried about demand destruction,” Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, says. The market also “seems to be a little technically heavy”

WTI/RBOB Drop After Harvey Prompts US Crude Production Collapse, Biggest Inventory Build In 6 Months

Last night"s first glimpse of Harvey"s impact on energy confirmed a sizable crude build but only modest gasoline draw. WTI/RBOB prices slid into the DOE print and extended losses (after a quick kneejerk higher) following a bigger than expected crude build (+4.58mm vs +4mm exp). Gasoline and Distilates saw bigger draws than API reported but it was the collapse in Lower 48 crude production that stood out with most of Texas offline.

API

• Crude +2.79mm (+4mm exp) - biggest build in 5 months


• Cushing +669k (+1mm exp)


• Gasoline -2.544mm (-5.2mm exp) - biggest draw in 6 weeks


• Distillates -610k

DOE

• Crude +4.58mm (+4mm exp) - biggest build in 5 months


• Cushing +797k (+1mm exp)- biggest build in 5 months


• Gasoline -3.20mm (-5.2mm exp)- biggest draw in 2 months


• Distillates -1.396mm

The inventory changes reported by the API were much smaller than those forecast by analysts. As a reminder, Saxo Bank"s Ole Hanson notes that "inventory data later is a lot of moving parts which could be quite skewed away from what we’ve seen in recent weeks." Additionally, investors “are going to be skeptical of the data,” James Williams, an economist at energy researcher WTRG Economics, told Bloomberg. “It might be pretty flaky data this week and next, so I don’t expect to see a big market-mover”

Bloomberg"s Fernando Valle notes energy"s past week was all about Hurricane Harvey as refineries shuttered, choking output and hauling down inventories of gasoline and distillates.

Bigger than expected crude build and bigger gasoline and distillate draws than API reported...

Bloomberg"s Fernando Valle points out that the increase in crude inventories was largely expected after the devastating impacts of Hurricane Harvey on the Gulf Coast. The draw on refined product inventories was weaker than expected, as lost demand -- both locally and abroad -- offset lower-than-expected refinery utilization. Investors" focus will now shift to the restart of refineries and export ports.

As one might expect, Gulf Coast imports fell to a record low.

Bloomberg"s David Marino notes that exports tumbled with Texas ports closed.

Crude was the lowest since 2014, before the export limits were lifted. Gasoline fell by more than half to 319,000 barrels a day, the least in four years, and distillate shipments were the lowest since 2011. Look for those numbers to rebound as ports and pipelines reopen fully.

Production declined in the previous week, and with most of Texas ofline last week - Crude production in the Lower 48 collapsed...

This is the biggest week-on-week fall since August 2012, when Hurricane Isaac shut in more than 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production.

WTI and RBOB have drifted lower after last night"s API data, heading into the DOE data. The kneejerk reaction to the crude build, gas draw and production crash was higher prices...

But that did not last long...

Brent “reached the May high and so far it’s been firmly rejected,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “It’s quite significant if we are getting a decent rejection here as it could indicate a short-term top in the market”

“It’s a market that is starting to struggle to move much higher, Brent crude up to $55 is probably as good as it gets at this stage”: Hansen

Panic Prepping Begins In Florida As "Monster" Irma Looms

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

On Monday, Hurricane Irma strengthened into a category 4 hurricane, and today became an "extremely dangerous" category 5 hurricane, with some meteorologists are projecting that it will remain so until it eventually makes landfall in the United States.  And since a “category 6” has not been created yet, category 5 is as high as the scale goes at the moment. 

Over the past couple of days, the track of the storm has shifted “a lot further to the west”, and at this point it appears that Miami is the most likely to take the full force of the hurricane.  But as we have seen, trying to forecast the behavior of hurricanes is not an exact science.  Irma may never become a category 5 storm, and it may never hit the U.S. at all.  Or it may zip past Florida to the south and end up making landfall in the Gulf of Mexico.  The truth is that we just don’t know.

But for the moment things are not looking good for Florida, and a state of emergency has already been declared for every single county in the state…

On Monday afternoon, Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency for every county in Florida in anticipation of Irma. A state of emergency was also declared in Puerto Rico earlier in the day.

Another scenario still on the table is that Irma curve northward and miss the East Coast entirely. This would still generate large surf and rip currents along the East Coast. However, this scenario is the least likely to occur at this point.

And as I mentioned above, many are projecting that Irma will become a category 5 storm just a few days from now.  The following comes from the Express…

Many projections show the category storm strengtheing to a category 5 hurricane, capable of ripping roofs from houses and causing huge waves and storm surges.

Predictions from both the National Environmental Satellite data and Information Service (NESDIS) and international weather forecaster Ventusky suggest though Irma is currently a Category 3 storm by Thursday she is expected to strengthen to a Category 5.

A category 5 storm has winds of more than 157mph – enough to destroy whole buildings and cause devastating flooding.

But just because the experts are telling us that certain scenarios are likely to happen does not mean that they will actually take place.

In the end, it is entirely possible that Florida may not see a single drop of rain.  Hurricane Harvey certainly behaved in ways that nobody was expecting, and I have a feeling that the same will be true for Irma.

As Irma inches closer to Florida, “prepping fever” has hit the public.  Grocery stores and home improvement chains are already being flooded with traffic, and this is only going to get worse the closer that Irma gets.

Yes... South Florida is taking Irma seriously. Shelves already are empty! pic.twitter.com/3yqK1johCY

— Cindy Goodman (@balancegal) September 5, 2017

Up here in NE Florida water shelves are empty or emptying fast. #Irma #Irma2017 #Hurricane #Cat5 pic.twitter.com/SZ2xgbdzPR

— Richard Hay (@WinObs) September 5, 2017

The following comes from one local news report…

As Hurricane Irma continues to make its way towards a possible strike on the Southeastern U.S., stores in South Florida are beginning to see a rush for supplies.

Several Publix supermarkets were full before noon Monday as residents grabbed water, non-perishable food and other items.

Another local news report noted that essential supplies were already running low at a Home Depot in south Florida…

With Hurricane Irma churning west, many South Florida residents are taking precaution and stocking up on supplies on Labor Day.

A Home Depot in Royal Palm Beach on Monday morning posted a sign that said they were short of some hurricane supplies, including wing nuts, 5-gallon containers for gasoline and 5-gallon jugs of water.

Publix in So Fl trying to stay ahead of #Irma already pic.twitter.com/2bTPbD3VsT

— Matt Onderlinde (@Weathernerds) September 4, 2017

Those that wait until the last minute are going to find that there is nothing left for them.  One resident of Palm Beach Gardens told reporters that the local Wal-Mart in her area is already completely out of water…

“There was nothing at Walmart,” said Bianca Rodriguez of Palm Beach Gardens. “Not even like one thing of water.”

South Florida stores order drinking water, hurricane supplies as jittery locals empty shelves https://t.co/5CjgiopAvE pic.twitter.com/GrjkbXM0UL

— Miami Herald (@MiamiHerald) September 4, 2017

Of course those that have been preparing all along don’t have to run out to the store in a panic.

If Irma hits the United States as a category 4 or category 5 storm, it is going to make history.

Meteorologists are telling us that the United States has not been hit by two hurricanes of at least category 4 strength in the same year in more than a century.

And prior to Hurricane Harvey, a hurricane had not made landfall in this country in about 12 years.

There is still a possibility that Irma could miss us completely, but as CNN’s Tom Sater has noted, “that window is shutting quickly”…

Computer models show the system moving through the Caribbean, and by the end of week, it will turn right toward the north, said CNN meteorologist and weather anchor Tom Sater.

“There is a small window. If it turns sooner rather than later, we could maybe see the system slide by the East Coast into the ocean, but that window is shutting quickly,” Sater said. “It definitely looks like we will be impacted by a major hurricane that is a Category 3, 4 or 5.”

If Irma is indeed a category 5 storm when it hits the U.S., it would completely rip coastal communities to shreds.

There haven’t been too many category 5 hurricanes to make landfall in modern American history, and a direct strike on Miami would be catastrophic.  But if Irma bypasses Florida and ends up hitting New Orleans or Houston, we could be talking about a disaster that is absolutely unprecedented in our history.

Florida Declares State Of Emergency As Category 4 Hurricane Irma Barrels Straight For Miami

With Florida already bracing for a hit from Hurricane Irma, which according to some models may attain "monster" Category 5 winds as it nears land prompting locals to store up on everything from water to food to gas and various other housing supplies, late on Monday afternoon Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency ahead of potential landfall, just hours after the governor of Puerto Rico did the same.

BREAKING: @FLGovScott has declared a state of emergency in Florida ahead of Hurricane #Irma #LaborDay pic.twitter.com/3HhWjgWNGc

— Chris Merryman (@realmerryman) September 4, 2017

At roughly the same time, the NHC announced that Irma’s top sustained winds have reached 130mph (215 kph), which prompted an upgrade to a Category 4 storm for Irma. According to the latest update, Irma was moving west at 13mph, and was currently located about 490 miles east of Leeward Islands.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten, Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

Puerto Rico is expected to be hit at 2pm on Wednesday.

While some models suggest a small chance of (another) Gulf of Mexico hit:

#Irma forecast has shifted a lot further to the west -- with some weather models suggesting a small chance (as today) of US GoM hit #OOTT pic.twitter.com/7ekw6gxEVW

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas2) September 4, 2017

Even more concerning, it now appears that despite hopes for a last minute course revision, Miami is smack in the middle of the latest hurricane path projections.

Based on 11AM Mon NHC track, chances for wind impacts from #Irma nearly equal for Miami, Key West, and Havana. pic.twitter.com/M1mkLbo5D2

— Craig Setzer CBS4 (@CraigSetzer) September 4, 2017

Which likely means that the preliminary panic which has gripped some Florida residents, is about to get worse. As we reported earlier, WPTV in Palm Beach reported that Shelves of water at several stores were nearly empty Sunday, even as Irma’s path remains uncertain. Hardware stores are also running out of tanks of gas and other supplies. One distressed shopper told WPTV that one Walmart had run out of bottled water.

“There was nothing at Walmart," said Bianca Rodriguez of Palm Beach Gardens. "Not even like one thing of water.”

According to WPTV emergency officials recommend people have one gallon of water per person, per day for at least five days in the event of a hurricane. Florida Gov. Rick Scott warned that “disaster preparedness” should be a priority for every family in the potential path of the storm. One shopper said he bought the last remaining cases of bottled water at the Winn-Dixie in Palm Beach Gardens.

“Rodriguez found cases of bottled water at a Winn-Dixie on Military Trail in Palm Beach Gardens Sunday night.  ‘I lucked out. There’s only a couple left, but at least there was enough for me,’ said Rodriguez.”

A Home Depot in Royal Palm Beach on Monday morning posted a sign that said they were short of some hurricane supplies.

And while some stores have already run out of supplies, for most Florida residents it is not too late to take precautions.

* * *

Here, courtesy of Wunderground"s Bob Henson, is the latest summary on the rapidly intensifying Hurricane Irma, whose threat for Cuba, Puerto Rica and Florida, is rising by the hour.

Threat Increasing for Cuba, Florida from Intensifying Irma

Dangerous Hurricane Irma was intensifying as it approached the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Monday morning, and island residents in the path of Irma need to rush preparations to completion as the storm heads west-southwest at 14 mph. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found that Irma’s central pressure was steadily dropping Monday morning, reaching 944 mb at 11 am EDT. Irma"s top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph, and winds may not yet have fully responded to this pressure drop. Update: Based on Hurricane Hunter measurements, NHC raised Irma"s top sustained winds at 5:00 pm EDT to 130 mph, making it a Category 4 storm. Irma is expected to be a major Category 4 hurricane when it passes very close to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday, near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday, and the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola on Thursday. As of 5 pm EDT Monday, Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands, and Hurricane Watches are up for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Tropical storm-force winds are expected to begin affecting the east coast of Florida and the Florida Keys on Friday night (Figure 1 below). An evacuation decision for the Florida Keys may have to come as early as Tuesday, since the Keys require 3+ days to evacuate. As of 5 pm EDT, far southeast Florida, including Miami, was in the 5-day cone of uncertainty fo

Satellite images on Monday morning showed a very symmetric well-organized storm with solid spiral banding and a large eye. Irma had a respectable and improving upper-level outflow on all sides. Conditions were favorable for strengthening, with wind shear a low 5 – 10 knots. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along Irma"s path have risen sharply over the past day, to 29°C (84°F), accompanied by a substantial increase in the total heat content of the ocean (Figure 2), giving the storm plenty of heat energy to fuel intensification. The surrounding atmosphere has been steadily moistening, as seen on precipitable water imagery, with a mid-level relative humidity near 55%, according to the 12Z Monday analysis from the SHIPS model.

Figure 1. Most likely arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds from Irma, as of the 11 am EDT Monday, September 4, 2017 advisory from NHC.

Intensity forecast for Irma

For the next five days, wind shear is predicted by SHIPS to remain very favorable for development—a low to moderate 5 - 15 knots. SSTs will be very warm, 29 - 30°C (84 - 86°F), accompanied by a high ocean heat content capable of fueling rapid intensification. Mid-level relative humidity is predicted to steadily rise, reaching 70% by the end of the week. We can expect one or more eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) this week, which will act to temporarily weaken the hurricane by about 10 mph. On Monday morning, the hurricane hunters found that an ERC was likely in progress, and the current intensification cycle will likely pause late today, as a result.

Our most reliable intensity models--the HWRF, COAMPS-TC, LGEM, and DSHIPS--predicted in their Monday morning runs that Irma would peak as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane with 130 - 160 mph winds, and the official NHC forecast of a Category 4 hurricane when it passes by the islands this week looks reasonable. The only major impediment to Irma’s strength would appear to be interaction with land; a close pass or direct hit on Hispaniola or Cuba could potentially damage or destroy the hurricane’s inner core and knock it down to Category 2 or 3 strength.

Figure 2. Total ocean heat content (OHC) along the track of Hurricane Irma, at 2 am EDT Monday, September 4, 2017. Irma is expected to encounter OHC levels of 80 – 100 kilojoules per square centimeter as it passes the Lesser Antilles islands. OHC levels this high are known to be very favorable for rapid intensification, and are similar to what fueled Hurricane Harvey’s rapid intensification over the Gulf of Mexico during its approach to the Texas coast (Figure 3). Image credit: University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Figure 3. Total ocean heat content (OHC) along the track of Hurricane Harvey on August 25, 2017. Harvey encountered OHC levels of 80 – 100 kilojoules per square centimeter as it moved to the northwest towards Texas. This large amount of heat helped fuel the storm’s rapid intensification into a Category 4 hurricane. Image credit: University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

How strong could Irma get?

Several computer models have been confronting meteorologists with some eye-opening intensity forecasts for Hurricane Irma, especially for the period around next weekend, when Irma is currently predicted to be arcing northwest from the Eastern Bahamas. We cannot rule out the chance that Irma will reach Category 5 strength, but we can safely discount some of the most extreme model-generated intensities. The GFS global model and the new HMON regional hurricane model have consistently been deepening Irma to pressures below 900 millibars (mb). However, neither of these models fully incorporates the interaction between ocean and atmosphere that serves as a check on a hurricane’s peak strength. A better guide to how strong Irma might get is the HWRF regional hurricane model, which extends out to 126 hours (just over five days). The HWRF has proven to be our most reliable model-based intensity guidance in recent years. The 0Z and 6Z Monday operational runs of HWRF deepened Irma to the 920 - 930 mb range, suggesting Irma will be a very formidable hurricane, but not a mind-blowing all-time record-setter.

For historical context, the lowest hurricane-related pressure ever measured at the surface north of the Caribbean and east of Florida is 921 mb in the Bahamas Hurricane of 1932. Hurricane Hunter dropsondes found a surface pressure of 919 mb within Hurricane Gloria (1985). Such pressures can support a Category 4 or 5 hurricane, but the peak winds depend on the size of the hurricane. As hurricanes move poleward, they typically get bigger. In a larger hurricane, the pressure force from a given central pressure will extend over a larger area, meaning that the top sustained winds will probably be lower but that a larger area could experience high winds and storm surge. This was the case with Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy, which brought record-low surface pressures and record-high surge across a large area despite winds of marginal hurricane force at best when Sandy made landfall.

Potential impact on the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico

Irma will assume a more westerly and west-northwesterly track over the next day, bringing the core of Irma just north of the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and Wednesday. Irma is a medium-sized hurricane, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 140 miles from the center, and hurricane-force winds that extend out 35 miles from the center. Most of the islands along Irma’s path will be on the weaker left side, where maximum wind speeds 10 – 20 mph less than the peak winds of the storm can be expected.

The 11 am EDT Monday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC highlighted a number of islands that might be at risk of tropical storm-force or hurricane-force winds on Tuesday and Wednesday. The highest odds were for Barbuda and Saint Maarten, with a 93% chance of tropical-storm force winds and a 52 -54% chance of hurricane-force winds. For the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, a 56 - 82% chance of tropical-storm force winds was given, and a 18 - 38% chance of hurricane-force winds.

The 6Z Monday run of the HWRF model predicted that northern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as eastern portions of Cuba, may receive rains of 8 – 16” from Irma. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flooding and mudslides. The model also predicted heavy rains of 8 – 16” in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas.

Long-range outlook for Irma

Computer model guidance on Irma’s future track made an important westward shift on Sunday night. Virtually all models—including our most reliable ones for hurricane track forecasts, the GFS, European, and UKMET—took Irma further west than prior model runs before an expected sharp turn to the north. This shift increases the chance that Irma will directly affect Hispaniola and especially Cuba, as discussed above. The shift also raises the odds for a U.S. landfall considerably, because Irma’s expected right turn toward the north would probably occur too late for Irma to miss the U.S. East Coast entirely. A strong upper-level trough will be moving well offshore by early next week, reducing the odds that Irma would be hauled out to sea.

Figures 4, 5, and 6 show the dramatic shift southwestward and its implications for landfall in three different configurations of ensemble models (GFS, Euro, and Euro high-probability). The 00Z Monday UKMET model, not shown, moves Irma along or near the north coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba.

Figure 4. The 20 track forecasts for Irma from the 0Z Monday, September 4, 2017 GFS model ensemble forecast. Image credit: CFAN.

Figure 5. The 0Z September 4, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the 50 track forecasts from the 0Z Monday European model ensemble forecast (grey lines). Image
credit: CFAN.

Figure 6.  The 0Z September 2, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the track forecasts from the “high probability cluster” (grey lines)—the four European model ensemble members that have performed best with Irma thus far. Image credit: CFAN.

It is unclear exactly why the modeled track shifted so dramatically on Sunday night, but the Monday morning (12Z) GFS run is very consistent with this shift, lending support to it. One piece of the puzzle is that the first Hurricane Hunter observations on Irma, gathered Sunday afternoon, were fed into the 00Z Monday runs. A raft of additional new data will be gathered on Monday and fed into upcoming model runs. This includes observations around Irma’s environment from the NOAA Gulfstream-IV, as well as extra radiosonde launches (weather balloons) that will sample the upper atmosphere at midday Monday (18Z) from 21 locations across the central U.S., where the upper-level trough expected to move offshore late this week will be taking shape. The model runs from 00Z Tuesday will incorporate the new data, so this will give us a much better sense of the steering currents guiding Irma and how those may evolve over the next week.

Irma is still four days from any potential direct U.S. impacts, so there is plenty of time for residents along the East Coast and eastern Gulf Coast to make any standard preparations for hurricane season that haven’t yet been squared away. The Sunday night model runs suggest that the entire Florida peninsula will need to pay very close attention to Irma, but it remains possible that Irma will move further north along the East Coast, or it could enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is strong model support for a north-northwest track once Irma makes its major right turn late in the week. The crucial variables will be how long it takes that turn to occur, how sharp the turn is, and whether Irma’s strength has been dented by interactions with Hispaniola and/or Cuba, as noted above.

Bottom line:  It is becoming more likely that Irma will move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and/or Cuba for significant impacts. There is an increasing chance that Irma will strike the U.S. late in the weekend or early next week, quite possibly as a major hurricane. It is still too soon to predict the location or timing of any U.S. landfall with confidence.

Florida Stores Running Out Of Water, Gas As Gov Warns "Make Sure Your Disaster Kits Are Ready" For Irma

Hurricane Irma is hurtling toward the eastern US faster than meteorological models anticipated. According to the latest readings from NOAA, the storm will probably make landfall in Southeastern Florida next weekend, or perhaps earlier – that is, unless wind patterns intervene and spare residents of Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach from flooding and winds witnessed in Texas and Louisiana, according to NOAA forecasts.

…Bloomberg chief energy correspondent Javier Blas noted that the Hurricane has “shifted a lot further west,” and that, according to the latest forecasts, there’s still a small chance that Irma strikes the Gulf of Mexico, compounding the devastation that Harvey left behind.

#Irma forecast has shifted a lot further to the west -- with some weather models suggesting a small chance (as today) of US GoM hit #OOTT pic.twitter.com/7ekw6gxEVW

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas2) September 4, 2017

Here"s what we know about Irma (courtesy of the Weather.com & NOAA):

• The center of Irma is located 610 miles east of the Leeward Islands and is moving west-southwestward at about 14 mph.


• Irma is a Category 3 hurricane and satellite imagery shows that it has become better organized in the past day with an eye now clearly evident.


• Low wind shear, increased mid-level moisture and ample oceanic heat content favor that Irma will remain a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) for the next several days, though some intensity fluctuations are likely.


• One potential inhibitor of Irma maintaining its intensity would be if the hurricane"s core interacts with land as it cruises westward near the Greater Antilles later this week.

And Weather.com’s latest impact projections:

• Leeward Islands: Late Tuesday-Wednesday


• Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands: Wednesday-Thursday


• Dominican Republic/Haiti: Thursday-Friday


• Turks and Caicos: Thursday-Friday


• Bahamas: Friday-next weekend


• Cuba: Friday-next weekend


• United States: Next weekend into early the following week

NOAA satellites captured this stunning video of the sun rising over the hurricane on Monday:

WATCH: @NOAASatellites loop shows sunrise this morning on Hurricane #Irma in the Atlantic. pic.twitter.com/YGFmvJtQoG

— NBC Nightly News (@NBCNightlyNews) September 4, 2017

Hurricane watches have been issued for the Leeward Islands, including Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. According to Weather.com’s latest long-term forecast, by next weekend, Irma will be immediately southeast of the US.

At that point, jet stream dynamics will begin to turn it north. What happens after that will be critical in determining where – or whether – Irma lands in the US.   Meanwhile, residents of southeast Florida – having spent the last week reading about the flooding in Houston – are understandably starting to panic.

WPTV in West Palm Beach reports that Shelves of water at several stores were nearly empty Sunday, even as Irma’s path remains uncertain. Hardware stores are also running out of tanks of gas and other supplies.

One distressed shopper told WPTV that one Walmart had run out of bottled water.

“There was nothing at Walmart," said Bianca Rodriguez of Palm Beach Gardens. "Not even like one thing of water.”

According to WPTV, emergency officials recommend people have one gallon of water per person, per day for at least five days in the event of a hurricane. Florida Gov. Rick Scott warned that “disaster preparedness” should be a priority for every family in the potential path of the storm.

One shopper said he bought the last remaining cases of bottled water at the Winn-Dixie in Palm Beach Gardens.

“Rodriguez found cases of bottled water at a Winn-Dixie on Military Trail in Palm Beach Gardens Sunday night.

‘I lucked out. There’s only a couple left, but at least there was enough for me,’ said Rodriguez.”

A Home Depot in Royal Palm Beach on Monday morning posted a sign that said they were short of some hurricane supplies.

As we continue to monitor Hurricane Irma, families should make sure their Disaster Supply Kits are ready today. https://t.co/ymXjrTHewW

— Rick Scott (@FLGovScott) September 3, 2017

Let’s hope they have time to restock before next weekend…
 

Latest Projections Show Hurricane Irma Headed For Florida

As Hurricane Irma continues to move  west as a Category three storm, in what still is said to be an indeterminate path, according to the latest projections from Met Scientist Michael Ventrice, it now looks like Florida has the highest probability of a US landfall…

Latest 12Z Calibrated ECMWF Ensembles indicates that Florida now has the highest probability to see Hurricane #Irma impacts/landfall ???? pic.twitter.com/YVgjueeKYx

— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) September 3, 2017

…though that doesn’t mean the Gulf of Mexico can rest easy. Hurricane forecasting is notoriously inaccurate one or two weeks out...

Not a shift in guidance anyone wanted to see. Looks like #Irma threat growing again for Gulf States. Forecast remains extremely difficult https://t.co/sZs5t2ppHJ

— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) September 3, 2017

Before it nears the US, however, the storm is headed toward the Northern Caribbean, threatening to bring flooding rain and damaging winds to the Leeward Islands. Preparations for the storm should already be taking place in these areas, according to Accuweather.com.

“Rain and gusty winds may start as early as Tuesday,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.

According to Accuweather, Irma’s intensity has vacillated over the past few days. But the storm is expected to strengthen to a category four hurricane with sustained winds of 130-156 mph as it approaches the islands. Thereafter, the storm will turn to the north and west over the coming days. This track will put Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands, in the brunt of the storm"s rain and wind spanning Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hurricane watches issued for portions of the Leeward Islands. Latest information on #Irma available at https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/BPiAPelf3D

— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) September 3, 2017

Cruise and shipping vessels in the hurricane’s path will need to reroute.

Later in the week, Irma will move close to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with the worst of the storm expected to miss the islands to the north. Even so, rough surf, gusty winds and heavy rain will increase.

Experts are concerned that the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas could face dangerous conditions at the end of the week and into the weekend as Irma passes nearby or possibly through the islands. Impacts will be severe if Irma maintains its strength and passes over them.

Ultimately, the storm could land in Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas or even closer to the Delmarva Peninsula. Or it could curve northward and miss the east coast entirely.

“The eastward or northeast progression of a non-tropical system pushing across the central and eastern U.S. this week will highly impact the long-range movement of Irma,” AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

How fast or slow this non-tropical system moves will determine whether Irma takes a west-northwest path toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard or gets steered north and away from land.

* * *

Readers may be wondering, if the storm slams southeast Florida, as is looking increasingly likely. Well, the Miami Herald spoke with one engineer who built a “dynamic” weather forecasting model that incorporates data like rainwater evaporation rates and how much of a given surface area is paved.

“Omar Abdul-Aziz, an engineer and assistant professor at West Virginia University, has done just that with a new model he built while at Florida International University as part of a state-funded project to improve hurricane loss models. At the request of the Herald, he agreed to run three rainfall scenarios that might resemble Hurricane Harvey.

The maps he produced stretch from Homestead north to Port St. Lucie, not including barrier islands which are separate land masses, and depict flooding after 48 hours from 20 inches of rain, 30 inches of rain, and 40 inches of rain.

Because the maps cover a large area, they don’t show flooding at street level. But Abdul-Aziz said they do provide a far more accurate picture of what would happen across the region.”

If his models are accurate, residents of densely populated cities like Miami might want to start bracing for floods. Abdul-Aziz found that floodwaters in parts of Miami, Hialeah, South Dade and Fort Lauderdale could rise between nine and 17 inches at least with this amount of rain. And with 40 inches of rain, flooding in those same neighborhoods, as well as many more, rises to between 23 inches and more than three feet — enough to begin damaging houses and partially submerge cars.

“Because of the flat land and low elevation, water does not move fast. It goes slow and the drainage capacity is not designed to take that much rainfall,” he said.

To build the model, funded with $533,000 from the state, Abdul-Aziz used the Environmental Protection Agency’s latest stormwater management model, which has been used since the 1970s to help communities plan water and sewer systems. They include local hydrology, land cover, ground level and local climate, but cover a smaller area.

Abdul-Aziz mapped out three different flooding scenarios below:

To be sure, the storm is still at least a week away. Depending on atmospheric conditions, it could menace a wide stretch of the US east coast. If it’s still a powerful category 3 or 4 storm when it hits – as projections suggest it would be – the US could be bracing for its second major natural disaster in two weeks.

Scientist Confirms: Harvey Caused A "1-In-1,000-Year Flood"

Scientists have confirmed what one renowned weather forecaster has suspected for days: Hurricane Harvey was a “1-in-1,000-year flood.”

That’s according to researchers at the University of Wisconsin’s Space Science and Engineering Center, who claim there is nothing in the historical record that rivals the devastation resulting from the flooding in southwest Texas, which has forced more than 30,000 Texans into temporary shelters.

“There is nothing in the historical record that rivals this, according to Shane Hubbard, the Wisconsin researcher who made and mapped this calculation. “In looking at many of these events [in the United States], I’ve never seen anything of this magnitude or size,” he said. “This is something that hasn’t happened in our modern era of observations.”

Of course, one reason for this might be that the modern urban environment is covered in concrete and asphalt, which makes it impossible for floodwater to absorb into the ground, exacerbating the disaster.

Hubbard’s calculations, which he shared with the Washington Post, only accentuate the massive scale of the flooding.

• At least 20 inches of rain fell over an area (nearly 29,000 square miles) larger than 10 states, including West Virginia and Maryland (by a factor of more than two).


• At least 30 inches of rain fell over an area (more than 11,000 square miles) equivalent to Maryland’s size.

To that, we’d like to add the nearly 52 inches of rain recorded by the National Weather Service in Cedar Bayou, Texas, which broke the continental U.S. record.

Making matters worse, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has just updated its forecast for what it is now referring to as a "rapidly intensifying" Category 2 hurricane in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. Some models see the storm making landfall in Florida, while others see it landing somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, meaning that another powerful storm could ravage Texas just two weeks after Hurricane Harvey, leaving locals little time to recover.