Showing posts with label flash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label flash. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

The #BitcoinBreakdown: Before You Buy, More Caveats

Initial bitcoin ramp First Appearing on HedgeAccordingly.com


Fifth in a series.  Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5


By @sellputs


Let us regard the wonders of technology & innovation: Suddenly, we now have multiple easy ways to lose money betting on bitcoin. Giddyup!


With incredible speed, from your laptop or even your smartphone and without even thinking about it, you can open up a new account, inject real U.S. dollars into it, use that to buy a teensy piece of your favorite cryptocurrency, and begin surfing the bitcoin wave. Or begin getting crushed by that wave, depending on your timing, smarts and luck.


This occurs to me on a recent Thursday night, as I visit an old friend in Brooklyn and bring along Big Guy, a college pal who stands 6-feet-4 (“and a half,” he feels it necessary to point out).  The Big Guy and I had been hanging out at the famed Waverly Inn in the West Village in Manhattan, where I had the vodka martini, marked down on special: just $28, down from $30 list.


This next point has nothing to do with bitcoin, okay? I gotta say: Anybody who regularly spends 30 bucks on a martini is a P.T. Barnum-scale sucker.  What a waste of money.  Waste it, instead, on something really irresponsible. . . . like bitcoin.


Anyway, we’re standing around a table in my friend’s apartment in Brooklyn, and Big Guy is taking swigs from a bottle of Blue Point Winter Ale and staring into the screen of his smartphone, as if mesmerized by some new videogame. Instead, he is tracking his own cryptocurrency trades.


“Uh oh, Ethereum is flash-crashing,” he says. He had gotten got into Ethereum (ETH), a newer “altcoin” alternative to bitcoin, a few days earlier at $620, watching it rise to $740 in a day or two and holding on, only to see it crash instantly down to $650 just this moment.  Should he sell?


Guy resists the urge and doubles up on his bet, adding to his ETH holdings (as well as Litecoin, LTC) “to lower my cost basis and scalp the bounce-back from the flash crash,” as he describes it later.  By 3 a.m. that same night, Ethereum had re-inflated to rise back up even higher, to $850. Whew.


Big Guy had put $10,000 into a new account he opened at Coinbase, a digital exchange akin to the New York Stock Exchange (except it is unregulated and carries no particular guarantees, far as I can see).  He had bet his stake all on bitcoin, pulling out after a 53% gain in a week, after commissions.


Guy opened up a second account, this one on GDAX, a 24/7, online platform in the rather unregulated, Wild West of crypto (it is owned by Coinbase). GDAX offers FDIC guarantees up to $250,000 (what happens to your money as a result of your trades is on you). On GDAX, he bet his bitcoin profits on the two lesser lights, ETH and LTC.  He says he can take profits out of Litecoin in only minutes, while transferring money out of bitcoin would take several hours. (LTC is lighter-traded than the binge-fueled bitcoin.)


GDAX charges him 25 basis points (0.25% of the total value of the trade) for “taking markets,” that is, buying coin shares on offer, and no fee at all for “making markets,” or selling on the platform.  Coinbase’s buying fee, at 1.5%, is fives times as much that of GDAX. A few days after he sat out the mini-flash-crash, Guy transfers some LTC from his GDAX account to another coin platform, Binance, where he wants to sell LTC and spread the proceeds among various coins trading below $5 apiece.


And a day or two after that, Big Guy is beaten down: He was up 75% and lost most of it all when he panicked and fled ETH and LTC at the bottom of a later plunge. Too fidgety. Easy come, easy go. He’s back in Ripple, though, and it has been “outperforming.”


Yes, the Big Guy admits, he does worry that in a flash crash or especially high trading volume, he may not be able to minimize his losses and take out cash.  In cryptocurrency trading, the bigger question than whether to sell may be: Can you sell? 


Coinbase limits how much money you can pull out of your account after you sell your crypto and convert the proceeds back to U.S dollars or whichever “real” currency you desire. So, in the event of a crash or some sudden, sharp de-valuation in bitcoins, your ability to act fast and sell your coins might be hampered, and selling your coins could be all but impossible.


Think of it as a football packed with cheering buyers, most of them unaware that there’s only one exit—and it is the size of a doggy door.  Buyer beware.  Puppies, too.


Next up: The high fees for buying bitcoin.









Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Balloons & Flash Drives: How A Private Organization Is Trying To Incite Rebellion In North Korea

Authored by Anders Hagstrom via The Daily Caller,


The U.S.-based Human Rights Foundation (HSF) has worked with North Korean defectors to smuggle flash drives and other tools into their dictatorial homeland to counter the regime’s propaganda throughout 2017.



HSF director Alex Gladstein claims that his organization has successfully smuggled up to 10,000 flash drives into the country containing documentaries countering state narratives, according to The Telegraph.



The organization also uses massive hydrogen balloons plastered with news bulletins to float across the border into North Korea in hopes that citizens will realize their true situation and bring the country down from within.


“This is to liberate minds,” Gladstein told the paper.


 


“We’re creating little windows to the outside world so that the North Korean people can make decisions for themselves about what they want to do with their lives.”



HSF’s “Flash Drives for Freedom” campaign sees volunteers go to great risk smuggling USB sticks through black markets on the China-North Korea border. The majority of North Koreans have devices that can read the flash drives, and since the program began, HSF has smuggled in 2 million hours of footage and 48 million hours of reading material, reaching an estimated 1.1 million North Koreans. According to HSF’s website, the flash drives contain ebooks as well as an offline version of Korean wikipedia.


HSF began the program in 2013 by simply filling hydrogen balloons with DVDs and leaflets and floating them across the border. High level North Korean defectors have said that causing the general population to question their living conditions is one of the most effective ways to attack Kim Jong Un’s regime.


“Given the history of Eastern Europe, I hope that people can think about the potential of information rather than reckless conflict and provocation and totally failed diplomacy,” Gladstein said.


 


“There is nothing the government can do with information, they can’t manipulate it. It’s a very powerful thing.”



Thae Yong-ho, who was once second in command at North Korea’s U.K. embassy before defecting in 2016, calls the general population of North Korea Un’s “Achilles heel.”


“We cannot change the policy of terror of the Kim Jong-un regime,” he said. “But we can educate the North Korean population to stand up by disseminating outside information.”










Jesus Was Born In A Police State

Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,


The Christmas narrative of a baby born in a manger is a familiar one.



The Roman Empire, a police state in its own right, had ordered that a census be conducted. Joseph and his pregnant wife Mary traveled to the little town of Bethlehem so that they could be counted. There being no room for the couple at any of the inns, they stayed in a stable, where Mary gave birth to a baby boy, Jesus.


Unfortunately, Jesus was born into a police state not unlike the growing menace of the American police state. And when he grew up, Jesus did not shy away from speaking truth to power. Indeed, his teachings undermined the political and religious establishment of his day. He was eventually crucified as a warning to others not to challenge the powers-that-be.


Yet what if, instead of being born into the Roman police state, Jesus had been born and raised in the American police state?


Rather than traveling to Bethlehem for a census, Jesus’ parents would have been mailed a 28-page American Community Survey, a mandatory government questionnaire documenting their habits, household inhabitants, work schedule, etc.


Instead of being born in a manger, Jesus might have been born at home. Rather than wise men and shepherds bringing gifts, however, the baby’s parents might have been forced to ward off visits from state social workers intent on prosecuting them for the home birth. One couple in Washington had all three of their children removed after social services objected to the two youngest being birthed in an unassisted home delivery.


Had Jesus’ parents been undocumented immigrants, they and the newborn baby might have been shuffled to a profit-driven, private prison for illegals where they would have been turned into cheap, forced laborers for corporations such as Starbucks, Microsoft, Walmart, and Victoria’s Secret.


From the time he was old enough to attend school, Jesus would have been drilled in lessons of compliance and obedience to government authorities, while learning little about his own rights. Had he dared to step out of line while in school, he might have found himself tasered or beaten by a school resource officer, or at the very least suspended under a school zero tolerance policy that punishes minor infractions as harshly as more serious offenses.


Had Jesus disappeared for a few hours let alone days as a 12-year-old, his parents would have been handcuffed, arrested and jailed for parental negligence.


From the moment Jesus made contact with an “extremist” such as John the Baptist, he would have been flagged for surveillance because of his association with a prominent activist, peaceful or otherwise. Since 9/11, the FBI has actively carried out surveillance and intelligence-gathering operations on a broad range of activist groups.


Jesus’ anti-government views would certainly have resulted in him being labeled a domestic extremist. Law enforcement agencies are being trained to recognize signs of anti-government extremism during interactions with potential extremists who share a “belief in the approaching collapse of government and the economy.”


While traveling from community to community, Jesus might have been reported to government officials as “suspicious” under the Department of Homeland Security’s “See Something, Say Something” programs.


Rather than being permitted to live as an itinerant preacher, Jesus might have found himself threatened with arrest for daring to live off the grid or sleeping outside. In fact, the number of cities that have resorted to criminalizing homelessness by enacting bans on camping, sleeping in vehicles, loitering and begging in public has doubled.


Viewed by the government as a dissident and potential threat to its power, Jesus might have had government spies planted among his followers to monitor his activities, report on his movements, and entrap him into breaking the law. Such Judases today—called informants—often receive hefty paychecks from the government for their treachery.


Had Jesus used the internet to spread his radical message of peace and love, he might have found his blog posts infiltrated by government spies attempting to undermine his integrity, discredit him or plant incriminating information online about him. At the very least, he would have had his website hacked and his email monitored.


Had Jesus attempted to feed large crowds of people, he would have been threatened with arrest for violating various ordinances prohibiting the distribution of food without a permit. Florida officials arrested a 90-year-old man for feeding the homeless on a public beach.


Had Jesus spoken publicly about his 40 days in the desert and his conversations with the devil, he might have been labeled mentally ill and detained in a psych ward with no access to family or friends.


Without a doubt, had Jesus attempted to overturn tables in a Jewish temple and rage against the materialism of religious institutions, he would have been charged with a hate crime. Currently, 45 states and the federal government have hate crime laws on the books.


Rather than having armed guards capture Jesus in a public place, government officials would have ordered that a SWAT team carry out a raid on Jesus and his followers, complete with flash-bang grenades and military equipment. There are upwards of 80,000 such SWAT team raids carried out every year.


Had anyone reported Jesus to the police as being potentially dangerous, he might have found himself confronted—and killed—by police officers for whom any perceived act of non-compliance (a twitch, a question, a frown) can result in them shooting first and asking questions later.


Charged with treason and labeled a domestic terrorist, Jesus might have been sentenced to a life-term in a private prison where he would have been forced to provide slave labor for corporations or put to death by way of the electric chair or a lethal mixture of drugs.


Either way, as I show in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, whether Jesus had been born in our modern age or his own, he still would have died at the hands of a police state.


Remember, what happened on that starry night in Bethlehem is only part of the story. That baby in the manger grew up to be a man who did not turn away from evil but instead spoke out against it, and we must do no less.









Friday, December 22, 2017

Bitcoin Gets the Gold Treatment- Futures Roll Over FOMO Crowd

We Told You First- Bitcoin is Going to Be made To Heel per its Banking - Government Overlords. 


Written by Soren K., Bon Scott, and Fay Dress for the Soren K.Group  


There is no Bretton Woods agreement to repeal here. Therefore, just control the upstart before if gains traction is all that needs to be done. And it is being done right now. Bitcoin as a potential alternative  to sovereign fiat is being strangled in the crib right now via futures listing in the US and banning in the Asian markets. We were warned. Yes it will continue to go up and down i nmassive vilatile moves, but now longs getting in using futures will lose money because of the volatility adn  the leverage they cannot afford. This is a tax on the ignorant common man feeling the anxiety of missing out unfolding in real time.


From a Previous Post on How Bitcoin will be made to "Heel"








 Technology that removes the banks" clearing risk while keeping the client captive in their system. Technology is disruptive, yes. But market structure, regulatory agencies , and marketers that lobby and shill for the Banks and Government will win. Technology has no protective moat by nature. It is that quality which will allow Bitcoin to be owned by the powers that be. 


As the cash in India is being replaced by Visa cards, so shall the Bitcoins be replaced by bank or nation state branded versions of themselves. [EDIT- Futures Do Nicely as well- Soren k .] Are you ready to exchange more  freedom for convenience?



Bloomberg today saw no possible correlation between trading desks opening up to arb bitcoin futures  and its drop off a cliff.  








Bitcoin plunged as much as 21 percent, briefly dropping below $13,000 in overnight trading. There seems to have been no particular catalyst for the selloff, with extreme volatility remaining a hallmark of the digital token. By 5:40 a.m. Eastern Time bitcoin had recovered some of losses to trade at $14,539.60. In a sign that cryptocurrencies are becoming more mainstream, yesterday we learned that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is setting up a trading desk to make markets in digital currencies.



In other words, buy the dip because it is becoming mainstream. Pay no attention to the prop arbitrage desk that will destroy futures longs even  while the bank clients are hedging their BTC longs through them. You know, like when miners hedge production through bullion banks? Mainstream is code to a flow trader (i.e. one who has no original idea in his head and front runs client flow and hammer smaller participants) as for "there  is enough stupid money in it for us to arb the shit out of it. After we do that, we will destroy the public longs 


We find this fascinating as headlines like:


  • “Gold Rallies $50.00: ‘It is overbought’ says analyst” In unrelated news: Russia declares war on US 

or


  • “Gold plummets $3.00 as people realize its a worthless pet rock, may cause cancer” 

pervade the financial MSM whose sponsors have nothing to do with gold by and large. Enter BTC which has not yet cemented its potential in the public mind as a replacement for fiat, and must be strangled in the crib. 


Incensed? You Bet We Are


We were compelled (incensed) to bang this post out despite being on vacation. Written from the road hastily but accurately. Seriously. How many times can you be warned?


Here are some links to previous posts on the concepts of market structure as tool of control, an interview with Vince Lanci actually saying “Sell Bitcoin futures and buy Gold on a dollar for dollar basis” last week in an interview with Daniela Cambone when asked about the relationship between the two.


Some articles on bitcoin"s market structure and as a futures product .








Futures as a form of regulation in Bitcoin


 Bitcoin will be co-opted by Banks


We have said this several times in the past. Bitcoin is not your savior from Banking Oligarchs. It is electronic. It is not physical and therefore can be co-opted by the banks themselves. Banks are not going to give up their franchises. If they cannot beat Bitcoin, they will create their own. The CME has embraced Blockchain technology. Banks are starting their own crypto currencies. Believe us when we say, either the government, or the Banking industry will shut it down. If they cannot, then they will buy or control it.  


This is a war between Mice and Cats. Every time the Mice (people) find a new way to avoid the Cats (Banks) monopolistic ways, the cats do something to throttle the Mice. Sometimes it is by developing their own Tech. Sometimes it is by using the government regulatory agencies to help them. Sometimes it is via a fear campaign. 


Usually, it is all three. Banks are developing their own proprietary Blockchain products. Governments are restricting ways to use Bitcoin. And finally it is done under the cover of "stop the crime"



and other Soren K. Posts on Bitcoin HERE


As stated in several posts by the Soren K. Group, and Vince, who is a bonafide rockstar in areas governing market structure, subjective probability, and commodity investment and trading in general. [Edit-And the only one of us crazy enough to put his real name on these articles.-Fay Dress]


Bitcoin lies at the intersection of all 3 areas. In the aggregate we said the following:


  • Bitcoin futures will be sold to you as your only safe  reliable regulated way to get bitcoin. 

This means if you buy bitcoin futures, you are buying a cardboard cutout of the product. You are buying a tracking stock that settles in cash and MUST, when all is said and done trade at a lower  less than “physical” bitcoin.


You traded freedom for convenience again. Good Fido!  Here"s a lesson from people who understand this as it happened to Gold. 


  • Ways to demoralize, control, or co-opt a grass roots movement into a product that threatens sovereign “debt- money”and restore some economic freedom. 

If you can’t control it outside your nation’s borders bit there is pent up demand in your nation, you can make it illegal and/ or implement draconian measures to impede its use on your country. This is the China way.


News flash! China is a newbie when it comes to manipulating its people. And frankly it doesn’t have to be subtle as their people are under no pretense of being in a democracy.


But in “democratic” countries one must protect its citizens from evil doers, give them “free markets” and get the public to swap freedom for convenience. Manipulation , Manufactured consent, and controlled opposition are the tools. 


So guys like Jamie Dimon, talking sock puppets who in an attempt to protect government fiat vilify Bitcoin one day; and who apparently didn’t get the note that the tactic of demonizing bitcoin had been replaced by “co-opting” it flips his script in a week. JPMORGAN  promptly after  being reminded there will be a futures market and money to be made; they actually imply it is a store of value, a new gold.


Are you serious? When bitcoin does become a store of value, it will be as a result of its potential for price appreciation  being killed. Price appreciation , by the way, that was a reflection of what would happen to gold if they took their foot off its throat. Bitcoin needed to be controlled; for it showed the vulnerability to government issues fiat as trustworthy. Is it not obvious? Where corporate and government interests can intersect, they do- and the public gets killed at the crossroads. 


1- increase accessibility  and stoke public grass roots movement  retail demand 


2- eventually trade at a discount to Bitcoin itself because it is settled in cash- a bank arbitrageurs dream! 


3- This de-facto regulation of bitcoin combined with tail-wagging dog price transparency will make the product “come to Daddy”.. daddy being the government which has no interest in Btc succeeding in its original form, it’s other daddy being the banks who will make a sitload of money raving “physical” bitcoin to cash settled futures, and destroy its status as money without borders.. at least in the USA. 


We circled back to Vince for a comment:








If you bought bitcoin futures as an investment, you are going to get fleeced. Or better said, your profits, if they come, will have a “little off the top” when you cash in. This is the expense of swapping convenience , “safety” and taxation, for OTC “exchange” counter party risk. 



He continues that it’s not bad if you know what you are getting into:








This is not a negative on the product. It does give you transparent access to a market with “wild west” issues. You may very well make money on a 5 year hold, but not as much as if there were no futures, not as much as owning BTC itself.



On investing vs trading:








Bitcoin is now a trading vehicle. It will be relentlessly arbed by bank prop traders, which is all fair to me. But it is the selling of it to a public that is woefully under capitalized, undereducated, and in search of a financial messiah to solve their fear of missing out anxiety. 



So what price should futures trade at compared to spot?








I don’t know. (Laughs) And to just say that in this age is itself a “no-no”. But anyone who knows and is in the markets will not tell you unless they are talking their position. What I can offer is the differential will become a product of cost of production, cost of storage, opportunity cost of money, and taxation. plus anything I haven"t thought of yet



He goes on seeming to work out the potential arb in his head as we chat.








I have to wonder: if bitcoin is a medium of exchange and in spot form may be difficult to tax properly, but profits on BTC futures are taxed at capital gains.. couldn’t that imply a discount in some instances as high as 20%? I don’t know, but those using BTC to dodge taxes in expatriating money criminally would certainly have that as a possible differential. But how that arb works, I haven’t figured yet. 


Look, at its basic level, the futures settle cash, they are not fungible with BTC, they cannot be. There is no above ground fungible unified supply in exchange vaults yet. Therefore it must trade at a discount to the real thing. The other factors that need to be considered are cost of mining and storage in energy terms. Maybe there is an arb between BYC, Futures and electricity.. it certainly is going to be a huge profit center for smart proposals desks like Goldman. Don’t short Goldman in the year after they get their arb up and running. It will be free money to them.


Come to think of it, if you are not in a position to sell BTC futures and buy Gold as a risk arb like i recently said in a Kitco intrview, just buy GS stock. They will certainty profit being long, short and sideways in Bitcoin futures. Don"t dig for gold, but the company that sells the shovels here.



We told you it would happen. Bitcoin in futures  form is now getting a taste of what it is to be a pariah wrapped in a pretty bow to the public while being demonized by the govt implicitly. 


This is market structure sponsored by a corporatised government that will do any thing to protect its most precious franchise its debt as money schematic that has hi jacked the fiscal lifeblood of our financial system with a heroin addicted contaminant. 


Will botcoin (not a typo- the algos are coming)rally again? Of course it will. But now we can all watch in real time as over the nextb5 Years Bitcoin “physical” will succumb to bitcoin futures due to its higher volume and more liquid markets. It will undermine the pseudo crypto exchanges which do actually need regulation. 


But make no mistake about : every broker and bank will be pitching cryptos now to you the public. And it is a tax on you. Bigger forces are now being put in place to make bitcoin less volatile, lower in price, and a sleepier asset. Hence it will become in their pitch “a store of value”. This is a joke. 


Remember all the gold nuts complaining that paper gold isn’t physical gold? Well he’d we go again. 


 


 


Forward Guidance


 


Government shutdown avoided, Spanish regional vote solves nothing, and bitcoin tumbles.


Staying open


Congress passed a bill to keep the U.S. government funded until Jan. 19. The bare minimum needed to avoid a shutdown, the legislation means lawmakers can head home for the holiday break, but makes for a difficult start to 2018 as a wide range of divisive fiscal and social issues have to be faced. Measures contained in the bill will allow President Donald Trump to sign the tax plan as early as today.


Catalan headache


The election in Catalonia saw separatist parties win a small majority of seats in the Barcelona assembly. The result keeps intact the uneasy status quo that’s endured since October, rather than take the Spanish region closer to independence. With ousted Regional President Carles Puigdemont still facing arrest if he returns from his self-imposed exile in Brussels, and Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People Party losing almost all of its seats in the assembly, an easy way forward seems elusive. This uncertainty is being reflected in markets this morning, with Spain’s IBEX 35 Index dropping as much as 1.6 percent after the open. 


Markets ready for a holiday


Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3 percent, while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.2 percent higher as the avoidance of a U.S. shutdown helped lift sentiment. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index edged 0.1 percent lower at 5:40 a.m., with the results of the Catalan election making Spanish stocks by far the worst performer in the region. S&P 500 futures added 0.1 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.485 percent and gold was slightly higher.


Data due


The core PCE deflator for November, the inflation gauge favored by the Federal Reserve, is due at 8:30 a.m., with consensus seeing a pickup to 1.5 percent. At the same time, personal income and spending numbers will be published, with durable goods orders for November also at 8:30. At 10:00 a.m. we get the latest reading from the University of Michigan sentiment gauge and new homes sales data. At 1:00 p.m. the Baker Hughes rig count will be the last piece of significant data in what has been a good week for oil.

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Ex-Spy Chief Admits Role In "Deep State" Intelligence War On Trump

An ex-spy chief who spoke out publicly against Trump while inspiring other career intelligence figures to follow suit has admitted his leading role in the intelligence community waging political war against the president, describing his actions as something he didn"t "fully think through". In a surprisingly frank interview, the CIA"s Michael Morell - who was longtime Deputy Director and former Acting Director of the nation"s most powerful intelligence agency - said that it wasn"t a great idea to leak against and bash a new president.


Morell had the dubious distinction of being George W. Bush"s personal daily briefer for the agency before and after 9/11, and also served under Obama until his retirement. In the summer of 2016 he took the unusual step (for a former intelligence chief) of openly endorsing Hillary Clinton in a New York Times op-ed entitled, I Ran the C.I.A. Now I"m Endorsing Hillary Clinton, after which he continued to be both an outspoken critic of Trump and an early CIA voice promoting the Russian collusion and election meddling narrative.



Acting director of the CIA Michael Morell with Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta
in 2013. Image source: Wiki Commons, DoD


As Politico"s Susan Glasser put in a newly published interview, Morell "has emerged out of the shadows of the deep state" to become one of Trump"s foremost critics speaking within the intel community. However, Politico summarizes the interview as follows:


But in a revealingly self-critical and at times surprising interview for this week’s Global POLITICO, Morell acknowledges that he and other spy-world critics of the president failed to fully “think through” the negative backlash generated by their going political. “There was a significant downside,” Morell said in the interview.



Not only had Morell during his previous NYT op-ed stated that he was committed to doing "everything I can to ensure that she is elected as our 45th president" but he went so far as to call then candidate Trump "a threat to our national security" - while making the extraordinary claim that "in the intelligence business, we would say that Mr. Putin had recruited Mr. Trump as an unwitting agent of the Russian Federation."


Curiously, Morell in his latest Politico interview indicates when asked about his "public profile" and activism so soon after leaving the agency (something that was relatively unusual prior to Trump taking office) that his post-retirement media appearances have been approved and/or received some level of oversight by the CIA. In the interview Morell states, "I did a 60 Minutes interview about my life inside CIA, and it’s something the agency thought that was a good thing to do, and I taped most of it before I left the agency." 


While such CIA review of former employees" publications and media interaction is nothing new, in Morell"s case was an unprecedented example of a very high profile intelligence figure explicitly campaigning for a presidential candidate and against another while specifically invoking his role at the CIA (he began his NYT column with, "During a 33-year career at the Central Intelligence Agency, I served presidents of both parties — three Republicans and three Democrats..." followed by a litany of key national security events he was central to).


The other important confirmation to come out of the discussion is the clear guiding assumption of the interview - that the intelligence "deep state" did in fact go to war with Trump - which has now been confirmed by Morell himself, which is essentially to hear it straight from the horse"s mouth.



The key exchange in the Politico interview begins as follows:


Glasser: Okay, so, flash-forward a year. Was that a mistake?


 


Morell: So, I don’t think it was a mistake. I think there were downsides to it that I didn’t think about at the time. I was concerned about what is the impact it would have on the agency, right? Very concerned about that, thought that through. But I don’t think I fully thought through the implications.


 


And one of the ways I’ve thought about that, Susan, is—okay, how did Donald Trump see this? Right? And from—it’s very important—one of the things we do as intelligence analysts is make sure that our guy—the president—understands the other guy. Right?


 


So, let’s put ourselves here in Donald Trump’s shoes. So, what does he see? Right? He sees a former director of CIA and a former director of NSA, Mike Hayden, who I have the greatest respect for, criticizing him and his policies. Right? And he could rightfully have said, “Huh, what’s going on with these intelligence guys?” Right?



Morell here seems to confirm Trump"s narrative of events concerning Russiagate "fake news" and willful intelligence leaks intended to damage the president, despite his opening obfuscation of "I don"t think it was a mistake" (so he"s essentially admitting the negative consequences but with no regrets).


Surprisingly, Morell even implicates himself with the words, "And then he sees a former acting director and deputy director of CIA criticizing him and endorsing his opponent."  The interview continues:


Glasser: It embroiders his narrative.


 


Morell: Exactly. And then he sees a former acting director and deputy director of CIA criticizing him and endorsing his opponent. And then he gets his first intelligence briefing, after becoming the Republican nominee, and within 24 to 48 hours, there are leaks out of that that are critical of him and his then-national security advisor, Mike Flynn.


 


And so, this stuff starts to build, right? And he must have said to himself, “What is it with these intelligence guys? Are they political?” The current director at the time, John Brennan, during the campaign occasionally would push back on things that Donald Trump had said.


 


So, when Trump talked about the Iran nuclear deal being the worst deal in the history of American diplomacy, and he was going to tear it up on the first day—John Brennan came out publicly and said, “That would be an act of folly.” So, he sees current sitting director pushing back on him. Right?


 


Then he becomes president, and he’s supposed to be getting a daily brief from the moment he becomes the president-elect. Right? And he doesn’t. And within a few days, there’s leaks about how he’s not taking his briefing. So, he must have thought—right?—that, “Who are these guys? Are these guys out to get me? Is this a political organization? Can I think about them as a political organization when I become president?”


 


So, I think there was a significant downside to those of us who became political in that moment. So, if I could have thought of that, would I have ended up in a different place? I don’t know. But it’s something I didn’t think about.




Despite Morell"s attempts to mitigate his own significant contributions toward creating a climate of distrust between the White House and the intelligence bureaucracy, it seems clear to the interviewee that Morell"s admissions lend credence to Trump"s side.


Indeed, Susan Glasser reasons, based on Morell"s unexpected confessions, that "you or others who spoke out and have continued to speak out actually tend to underscore his feeling that there’s a political divide."


Glasser: Well, it’s very interesting, because of course, there are so many things you don’t know at that moment in time, including, of course, I’m sure you assumed, along with everybody else, that Hillary Clinton was likely to be elected, and you saw this as contributing to that in some way. But it’s certainly relevant in the context of the situation we find ourselves in a year later. And, if it tends to embolden Trump in his critique of your former colleagues who are still serving in the intelligence agencies, and not only has this been a theme that he has struck repeatedly to criticize—but also to politicize this.


 


And inadvertently, perhaps, you or others who spoke out and have continued to speak out actually tend to underscore his feeling that there’s a political divide, and now you and others are on one side of it, and potentially all your former colleagues, and then he’s on the other side of it...


 


Morell: Yeah, and you can’t pick and choose like that. And when people in the intelligence community—particularly people in CIA, because for every other part of the intelligence community except CIA, you’re working for a cabinet member. At CIA, you are working for the president of the United States. That is your customer. Right? 00:08:03 So, when you see your customer questioning what it is that you are providing to him or her, and that person seems to be cherry-picking what they accept and what they don’t accept, it’s demoralizing. And when it’s demoralizing, people take actions, right? So, I live pretty close to the agency, and there’s a coffee shop between me and the agency, and I’ve met a number of agency officers in that coffee shop who have said to me, “I’m thinking about leaving.”



Yet Morell in a round about way previously admitted that he is personally one of the chief authors of precisely this "demoralizing" scenario in which the president doesn"t fully trust his intelligence briefers.


But we should all remember that this is a man who on the one hand described "Russia"s hacking is the political equivalent of 9/11" and constantly hyped "Russian propaganda", while on the other he went on a lengthy RT News segment in order to promote his newly published book.









Sunday, December 10, 2017

These 8 Places Around The World Are Actively Preparing For Nuclear War

Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,


Everywhere, it seems like officials are actively preparing for the possibility of nuclear war.



Tensions are high in practically every corner of the world but somehow, despite the proliferation of imminent threats, many people are still blithely unaware of the hell that could be unleashed.


Due to tensions between the US and North Korea, the world is frantically preparing for the possibility of a nuclear attack. The US, China, Russia, North Korea, and South Korea have all shown force with bombers and destroyers, and it seems that it will only be a matter of time before one incident sparks a cascading explosion.


The governments of these 8 places are making preparations, but they’ll be to little avail if people don’t participate and just expect to be rescued.


1) South Korea


In South Korea, their government has urged citizens to get prepared for war, and prepping is becoming mainstream for North Korea’s nearest neighbor and sworn enemy.


The government of South Korea is making every effort to turn its citizens into a country of survivalists. With the ever-increasing threats from the North, South Korean preppers are becoming mainstream, instead of a quirky fringe element…


The South Korean President isn’t taking this lying down. “In case North Korea undertakes provocations against us or our ally, we have the power to destroy (the North) beyond recovery.” This threat most likely will not please the Dear Leader of North Korea, so it’s probably safe to predict even greater hostilities on the horizon.


The South Korean Ministry of Public Administration and Security has issued guidelines for a variety of attacks to their citizens due to the ever-increasing risk of an attack by North Korea…


…An article published in the South Korean Times states, “The number of doomsday pessimists is rapidly growing here, as is shown from the number of relevant YouTube videos and their views.”


The article goes on to describe a video by a popular female comedian that teaches watchers how to create a bug-out bag. But that’s not all. South Korean preppers are becoming mainstream. (source)


2) China


A Chinese newspaper from an area that shares a border with North Korea published a series of articles advising people how to prepare for a strike.



Bloomberg summarized the advice:


The Jilin Daily — the government newspaper of Jilin province on North Korea’s northeastern border — published articles on page 5 explaining how nuclear weapons work and the damage they cause. The paper used cartoons to offer advice on what residents can do about radiation exposure and provided instructions on how to respond during an attack.


One article listed essential items for emergency kits, including fire extinguishers and breathing masks. Another warned that air raids could mean nuclear, chemical and biological attacks, and used the 1945 atomic bombing of Hiroshima as an example.


The cartoon images illustrated how residents should clean their bodies, boots, and coats after being exposed to radiation. They suggested taking iodine tablets if there is radiation nearby. (source)

3) Japan


Millions of people in Japan have taken part in (or soon will) nuclear attack evacuation drills, and the Prime Minister is urging local authorities to designate the best sturdy, underground sites to be used as potential shelters.


…Tokyo isn’t the first city to conduct these types of large-scale drills: Towns facing the Korean Peninsula have conducted similar drills in recent months. 


The national and city governments are to carry out a series of exercises between January and March to prepare for a potential attack on Tokyo, the Sankei Shimbun newspaper reported, the first time that a major Japanese city will have carried out responses to a simulated attack.


Towns facing the Korean Peninsula have in recent months conducted similar drills, with residents instructed to seek shelter in response to sirens warning of an imminent missile strike.


Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has called on local governments throughout the country to identify underground facilities or buildings that are sufficiently sturdy to withstand a missile attack and to designate those facilities as shelters. source()


But it isn’t just Asia that is preparing for the possibility of a nuclear strike.


4) Australia


Australia recently received a warning from North Korea, calling the country a “vassal” of the United States.


A spokesman for the North Korean Foreign Ministry told the country’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) [said] that Australia’s support for the United States in opposing North Korea was a “suicidal act.”

 

“Australia will be unable to avoid a disaster if it keeps toeing the US line of military, economic and diplomatic pressure upon the DPRK despite its repeated warnings,” the Foreign Ministry spokesman was quoted as saying.

 

“It should be prudent in speech and conduct with its own principle, instead of blindly following the US’ policy of aggression, and realize that working to develop friendly relations with other countries is the best way to its security.” (source)

The minister for defense personnel, Dan Tehan, said that they “will not be cowed” by North Korea’s threats.

5) Hawaii


Hawaii recently tested their nuclear sirens that have not been used since the 1980s. The island is the closest American state to Hawaii, which makes it geographically vulnerable.


But here’s the bummer about the siren test. They were going for 20 whole minutes and hardly anyone even noticed them.


It’s hoped that the 385 sirens dotted around Hawaii will give residents and tourists a 20-minute warning if North Korean nuclear missiles are inbound.


But the sirens, which have been silent since the Cold War, were barely heard in the busy tourist areas of Waikiki, where most people obliviously went about their day.


…Disturbed by the underwhelming results of the tests, officials are now investigating whether the sirens were operating as they are supposed to. (source)


One of my dearest friends lives in Hawaii and has attended the nuclear preparedness meetings that have been held on Maui. According to her, hardly anyone shows up. No one is interested.


With that in mind, one must wonder if the issue with the lack of response to the nuke siren is one of decibels or one of cognitive dissonance.


6) Guam


As a US territory and the closest to North Korea, Guam could find itself in the crosshairs. Officials have issued guidelines to all its residents to prepare them for the possibility of a nuclear strike. (Here’s a link to the fact sheet.)


There’s some excellent advice, such as:


  • “Make a list of potential concrete shelters near your home, workplace or school.”

  • “Do not look at the flash or fireball — It can blind you.”

  • “Lie flat on the ground and cover your head. If the explosion is some distance away, it could take 30 seconds or more for the blast wave to hit.”

  • “When possible, take a shower with lots of soap and water…do not scrub or scratch the skin.”

  • “Do not use conditioner in your hair because it will bind radioactive material to your hair.”


7) The US Mainland


Here on the mainland, California is making preparations, but one notable factor is that residents should not expect help from the government any time soon should such a catastrophe occur. (This, of course, is something that preppers have known for a long time and is clearly evidenced in the slow response to Puerto Rico.)


It also warns of the difficulties government authorities would likely encounter in dealing with the aftermath of a blast. The public will need to evacuate, the report says, but with “limited understanding of radiation risks, they will experience high anxiety and may be non-compliant…”


“…The consequences of a nuclear attack in Southern California would be catastrophic,” the report says. “Nonetheless, government entities and first responders are expected to remain operational to preserve human life, maintain order, and aid in the recovery process.”


The report, which is largely directed at local, state, and federal agencies and first responders located in the Los Angeles region, notes that the federal government will likely be of limited help immediately after a nuclear blast.


“[T]here will be no significant federal assistance at the scene for 24-72 hours following the attack,” the bulletin says. (source)


The Pentagon is planning missile defense bases along the coast.


Congressman Mike Rogers, who sits on the House Armed Services Committee and chairs the Strategic Forces Subcommittee which oversees missile defence, said the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) was aiming to install extra defences at West Coast sites.


“It’s just a matter of the location, and the MDA making a recommendation as to which site meets their criteria,” the Alabama Congressman and Republican said.


When asked about the plan, MDA Deputy Director Rear Admiral Jon Hill said in a statement: “The Missile Defense Agency has received no tasking to site the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense System on the West Coast.”


The MDA is a unit of the US Defense Department. Congressman Rogers did not reveal the exact locations the agency is considering but said several sites are “competing” for the missile defense installations. source()


The goal, of course, is to shoot down the missiles before they can land in the United States and cause untold damage and death tolls. It may not be that easy though. Alarmingly, several experts have raised concerns about our ability to shoot down nukes before they hit.


8) Russia


Russia has been preparing for nuclear possibilities for quite a while now. Last year, it was reported that Russia was building fallout shelters all over the country and that 40 million citizens participated in a defense drill shortly before the US election, when tensions were running high over Syria.


But it didn’t end with the election because now Russia is up to its eyeballs trying to defuse the US/North Korea situation. Russian president Vladimir Putin recently received a letter from Kim Jong Un that stated they could launch an attack on the US “at any day” and could reach the mainland.


As well, Russia has voiced concerns about the animosity with NATO and recently drilled for the possibilities of nuclear or biological attacks. Russia has alleged that the US and Europe are developing nuclear weapons use procedures at their borders.


Preparing for a scenario in which Russia was attacked by “weapons of mass destruction by a hypothetical enemy,” soldiers were deployed in hazmat suits and gas masks.


Units specializing in chemical weapons were deployed in the Krasnodar and Stavropol regions, while at least 100 personnel in the neighboring Rostov region launched a parallel decontamination drill on Monday. It followed similar exercises held by Russian overseas troops in nearby Armenia over the weekend.


Also deployed were mobile laboratories and radioactive- and chemical-tracing reconnaissance vehicles capable of quarantining, assessing and potentially eliminating a chemical or nuclear threat. 


In recent weeks, Russia’s nuclear-capable forces practiced missile launches and flyovers in apparent offensive measures for a conflict scenario. (source)


Here is what would happen if a 10 kiloton nuclear strike occurred.


As I have written numerous times, if you aren’t at Ground Zero, a nuclear strike is very survivable. It isn’t one of those situations like The Road, where the whole world is a nuclear wasteland and people start eating each other to survive.


(This is an excerpt from my article, How to Prepare for a Nuclear Attack.)


Contrary to popular belief, a nuke won’t kill everyone within hundreds of miles. If you aren’t in the immediate blast radius, a nuclear strike is absolutely survivable.


The one-mile radius around the blast will be virtually unsurvivable. Within two miles, people will suffer 3rd-degree burns from the intense wave of heat.


If you are within two miles of the blast, the winds will be coming at about 600 miles per hour. This will take down buildings and cause a tremendous amount of pressure. Some experts recommend that you keep your mouth open to try and reduce the pressure on your eardrums. Looking at the blast could cause permanent blindness.


According to the DHS (source), 10 kilotons is the approximate size of nuclear weapon we could expect.


  • Nearly everyone within a half-mile radius of the point of impact would die and most of the buildings would be demolished. This would be considered Ground Zero.

  • The area within the next half mile would suffer extensive damage, fires, and serious injuries.

  • Areas within three miles could see minor injuries to people and slight damage to their homes.

  • The fallout would kill even more people. According to the DHS:

  • Within 10 to 20 miles of the explosion, radioactive exposure would cause nausea and vomiting within hours and death without medical treatment.

  • But for those near enough to the blast, experiencing more than 800R of radiation, not seeking shelter immediately would cause deaths with or without medical treatment, the study found.

  • People would not be able to evacuate this area as fallout would arrive within just 10 minutes.

People upwind of the strike and outside the 20-mile radius would be unlikely to suffer any effects. People downwind would need to take shelter. Deaths from cancer that is related to the fallout could occur for many years after.


With all of these governments spending oodles of money trying to prepare their citizens for the unthinkable, it would be extremely wise to get ready, just in case.


You’ll need to plan to hunker down for 14-21 days. That means you’ll need food, a way to cook it, water, sanitation supplies, and other essentials to last for that amount of time. You should invest in a potassium iodide supplement to stave off the possibility of thyroid cancer. (Learn how to use them in this article with a printable version.)


*  *  *


In times like this, it’s more essential than ever to keep well-informed. (Sign up here for my daily emails and follow my website, Preppers Daily News.) Most importantly, go to this article to learn in-depth what you should do to prepare for the possibility of a nuclear attack. If the missiles are in the air, it’s far too late.









Friday, December 8, 2017

Here"s What The Next Big Middle East War Will Look Like

Submitted by South Front


On Wednesday Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed during the Jerusalem Post Diplomatic Conference that Israel has to “act now against Iran” in order to stop the Iranians from "establishing themselves in Syria,” according to the Israeli newspaper Jerusalem Post.


During the conference, the Israeli prime minister argued that world leaders should join Israel and the US in pressuring Iran to accept renegotiating the 2015 nuclear deal. Netanyahu even warned that Iran will have nuclear weapons “in a decade” once the nuclear deal is over. Netanyahu also accused Iran of supporting “terrorist organizations” as usual, and said that Lebanese Hezbollah, and Palestinian Hamas would “not last a day without Iran,” according to Jerusalem Post.


Netanyahu"s statements are clearly aimed at justifying the recent Israeli airstrikes in Syria. Israeli media claimed that the airstrikes destroyed an Iranian military base, and a missile shipment; however, these claims were not backed by any evidence. The statements also serve the current policy of Israel, which is aimed at holding Iran responsible for all crises in the Middle East - a policy which is coordinated with some Arab countries like Saudi Arabia, according to many experts.


Due to these rising tensions and the past months of escalating events in various corners of the Middle East, it increasingly looks as if the world is on the brink of witnessing a new conflict over Lebanon. While the chances for escalation are high, the essential pre-conditions for a new, large-scale war in the region are still in the works.



Image source: Gulf Insider


To review, on November 22, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri temporarily suspended his resignation following a request by the country’s president Michel Aoun to reconsider the decision. Hariri originally announced his resignation in a televised speech from the Saudi capital, Riyadh, on November 4 - an event which sparked a new round of tensions between Saudi Arabia on one end and Lebanon with Hezbollah on the other.


Saudi Arabia accused Lebanon of “declaring war” on Riyadh by allowing Hezbollah “aggression” against the kingdom. Meanwhile, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman accused Tehran of delivering missiles to Yemen’s Houthi forces for use against the kingdom, an act he described as “direct military aggression”.


And on November 19, an emergency meeting of the Arab League was held between Saudi Arabia and other Arab foreign ministers in Cairo, calling for a united front, to counter Iran and Hezbollah. In a declaration issued after the meeting, the Arab League accused Hezbollah of “supporting terrorism and extremist groups in Arab countries, with advanced weapons and ballistic missiles.” In turn, the Lebanese authorities and Hezbollah said that Hariri was held captive in Saudi Arabia because he had not returned to Lebanon as he promised. On November 22, Hariri arrived at the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and suspended his resignation. This marked a new phase of the political standoff between the sides.



Hariri is a compromise figure in the Lebanese politics. His appointment as the Lebanese prime minister was de-facto supported by Saudi Arabia, the United States and some influential groups in Lebanon. This move was aimed to serve the “interethnic dialogue” in Lebanon.


However, the recent developments in the Middle East, including the nearing end of the conflict in Syria and the growing influence and military capabilities of Hezbollah, have changed the political situation in Lebanon. Hezbollah units de-facto fulfill functions of the presidential guard. Lebanese special services and the special services of Hezbollah are deeply integrated. Hezbollah’s victories in Syria and humanitarian activities in Lebanon increased the movement’s popularity among people.


All these events have taken place amid the developing crisis in Saudi Arabia where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has launched a large-scale purge among the top officials, influential businesspersons and princes under the pretext of combating corruption. According to some experts, the move is aimed at consolidating the power of the crown prince and his father, King Salman. Theoretically, the kingdom is seeking to shift its vector of development and to become a more secular state. In 5-10 years, it could even abandon Wahhabism as the official ideology should rumors of reform efforts be true. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is involved in an unsuccessful conflict in Yemen and a diplomatic crisis with Qatar. This situation fuels tensions and a competition for resources among the Saudi clans. As a result, the Saudi regime and the Saudi state in general, are now, in a weak position.


Let’s look at the interests of all parties.


On the one hand, the appearance of a new active foreign enemy could consolidate the Saudi population and its elites. The war with Hezbollah would allow the kingdom to gain additional assurances from the United States. Furthermore, with Israel entering the conflict, the kingdom would significantly reduce the risks of losses in any direct military confrontation with Lebanon and Hezbollah.


On the other hand, Riyadh has a wide range of foreign and internal problems. Considering the current weakness of Riyadh, any push may lead to utter disaster and the further instability of the royal family. 


In the case of the conflict in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia will be involved in a military and diplomatic standoff on 3 fronts:


  • North – Hezbollah and Iran;

  • South – Yemen; and

  • East – Qatar.

The conflict will also force a dramatic growth of oil prices. According to various experts, $150 per barrel can be expected by the end of the first month of any potential future conflict, if it is to occur. Some may suppose that this scenario is beneficial for Saudi Arabia or clans that control Saudi Aramco, the largest oil exporter around the world. However, the expected guerrilla war, which will likely erupt in the Shia-populated, oil-rich part of the country, will level out the pros of this scenario. Additionally, there is always a chance, that the main combat actions will be moved to the Saudi territory.


Israel and the West, in general, are not interested in high oil prices. In turn, Russia and Iran, who will not be involved in the initial stages of the conflict, will receive an increase in revenue from this scenario. The problem is that Tehran and Moscow are not interested in this “big new war” as well. Such a conflict in the Middle East will pose a direct threat to their national security


Israel’s attitude is another issue. Tel Aviv believes that the growing influence of Hezbollah and Iran in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Lebanon, is a critical challenge to its national security. The key issue is that Israeli military analysts understand that Hezbollah is now much more powerful than it was in 2006. Now, Hezbollah is a strong, experienced, military organization, tens of thousands troops strong, which has the needed forces and facilities to oppose a possible Israeli ground invasion in Lebanon.


Iran has also strengthened its positions in the region over the last ten years. It has reinforced its air defense with the Russian-made S-300 systems, strengthened its armed forces and got combat experience in Syria and other local conflicts. Tehran also strengthened its ideological positions among the Shia and even Sunni population which lives in the region.


Thus, Israel will decide to participate in a large-scale conflict in Lebanon only in the case of some extraordinary event. It is possible to assume that in the coming months, a large-scale war in Lebanon will not be initiated. Nonetheless, Israel will continue local acts of aggression conducting artillery and air strike on positions and infrastructure of Hezbollah in Syria and maybe in Lebanon. Israeli special forces will conduct operations aimed at eliminating top Hezbollah members and destroying the movement’s infrastructure in Lebanon and Syria. Saudi Arabia will likely support these Israeli actions. It is widely known that Riyadh would rather use a proxy and engage in clandestine warfare.  This means that stability in the region will not come anytime soon.


In turn, Hezbollah still needs about one-and-a-half years to further strengthen its positions in Syria and to free additional forces, which could be used in other potential flash points. The movement will likely put an end to the separation of power in Lebanon. This would mean that Hezbollah and Lebanon would become synonymous. Hezbollah also needs time to expand its network in the Shia-populated part of Saudi Arabia. Additionally, as Hezbollah’s involvement in the Yemeni conflict deepens, the balance of power in the region may begin to shift, creating further setbacks of the Saudi-led coalition.


According to some estimates, Hezbollah will be ready for a new round of the “big game” in the Middle East in the spring of 2019. But let"s hope that such a massive regional war does not come.









Tuesday, December 5, 2017

An Autopsy of Lowest Selling Pressure EVER: S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and DJIA Futures DataViz

E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)


 


Based on candlestick wick analysis and data across all three primary US futures contracts, there is less selling pressure than ever before.


Not since xyz, not since insert year here... there is less selling pressure than ever.  But everything"s awesome, right?  Just BTFD, right?


If "real technical analysis" was stranded on a desert island with only one wish: #RealTA would ask for candlesticks.  And currently there is a complete and utter lack of top wicks – more so than ever before in the history of ES, YM, and NQ futures. The relentless rally of the past 75 trading sessions has resulted in the lowest 50-day, 100-day, 200-day, and 500-day totals of bottom wicks since ES futures began trading.


So, while volatility and average true range have been missing (read as: kidnapped), so has any semblance of selling pressure; and the top wicks that indicate it.


Aside from an unexpected flash crash type scenario, futures are unlikely to plot a long-term or short-term top without indication of waning buying pressure and/or intensified selling pressure.  At some point in the central bank liquidity orgy flow induced future, all this buying pressure will exhaust itself and we will likely see evidence of an actionable top – in the form of increased frequency and size of top wicks – indicating that selling pressure has arrived (read as: awoken from a morphine overdose induced coma) and that equity "markets" are finally ready to chill.


 



fibozachi es daily wick comparison


 


 



fibozachi es weekly wick comparison


 


 


Here is another astonishing datavizualization of market structure and ES volume, courtesty of dataviz legend @nanexllc... starting at 11am during the 12/01 session, S&P 500 futures registered record-breaking volume by trading more contracts during that hour than at any other since at least 2005. 


 



 


 


Is today’s session a bearish omen of an impending correction? 


 


While theoretically possible from a technical perspective: fishing for a top, on the same day that new highs are made, is unlikely ever wise.  Nevertheless, today’s session (12/4) gave us @Fibozachi a very interesting trio of bearish candlesticks for the S&P-500, NDX and DJIA that are each noteworthy. 


 


 


E-mini NASDAQ-100 Futures (NQ)


 


NASDAQ-100 futures (NQ) plotted a large bearish engulfing candlestick; where it’s real body engulfed that of the past two trading sessions.  Because we saw this same candlestick pattern on 11/29, today’s price action confirms that the NDX’ short-term technical outlook is becoming increasingly bearish.  If selling pressure continues, the first short-term downside support speedbump for NQ will be found at 6,200... from there, there is a strong support shelf that spans 6,150 - 6k. 


 



fibozachi nq daily candlestick bearish engulfing


 


 


 


E-mini DJIA Futures (YM)


 


DJIA futures (YM) plotted a shooting star candlestick, meaning:


  1. it opened higher than yesterday...

  2. traded up to new highs.. and

  3. then came back down to close at almost the same exact price as the open.

 


12/4’s YM session also registered as a filled white candlestick; meaning that while YM closed higher than yesterday’s close, that it also closed below yesterday’s open.


When a shooting star candle plots after a strong rally, it is often a warning sign that bullish momentum may be exhausted; the opposite is also true for hollow red candles after a sell-off.


While additional confirmation is required, this is the type of bearish candlestick pattern that may seem obvious in retrospect when looking for signs of a market top.  If selling pressure continues, short-term downside targets are 23,600 with a strong support shelf at 23,200. 


 



fibozachi ym daily candlestick pattern shooting star


 


 


 


E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)


 


S&P 500 futures (ES) plotted a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern for the first time in 4 months.  This type of pattern - after such^ a relentless rally - has an increased chance of follow-through ... though in this instance it may just lead to a short-term sentiment reset rather than a legitimate sell-off.  If selling pressure continues, short-term downside targets span 2,550 to 2,600.


 



fibozachi es daily candlestick bearish engulfing


 


 


 


Volatility Index Futures (VX)


 


VIX futures (VX) plotted a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern for the first time since 8/08/17.  The last daily instance of this pattern triggered a surge that sent $VIX #PriceAction from 16.50 to 19.45 in just 3 sessions.


Today’s instance (12/4) provides additional technical evidence that major US equity ‘markets’ may be topping.  Should VX futures continue to rally... they will likely retest 13.50 before encountering genuinely firm resistance at 14.70 - 15.00.. with extremely strong resistance at 16.50.


 



fibozachi vx daily candlestick bullish engulfing


 


 


Check out Fibozachi.com to learn about modern technical analysis and trading indicators that actually work.



Future’s have Less Selling Pressure than Ever Before… until now?