Doc Copper breakdown important global message?

Ole Doc Copper has performed very well over the past 2-years, as it has rallied 50%. Maybe the rally has been sent a positive message about the worlds macro picture? Could have and maybe stocks liked it.

Below look at the price action of Doc Copper over the past 5-years and why price action of late might be something one might not want to hide from–

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The 24-month counter-trend rally took Doc Copper to test 5-year falling resistance at (1), where it attempted three times to breakout. While attempting to breakout, Doc Copper created several bearish wicks (bearish reversal patterns) at (1).

The rally pushed momentum to the highest levels since the 2011 peak of late, which looks to be turning lower.

Doc Copper this week, could be breaking 6-month rising support at (2).

Time will tell if ole Doc Copper is sending an important global macro message to stocks and about global inflation or lack of. Stick your head in the sand and ignore the message from Doc Copper? I am not at this time.

 

Chart pattern analysis with brief commentary:   

There is a ton of news and opinions about markets and stocks that make the decision-making process more difficult than it needs to be.    

I believe the Power of the chart Pattern provides all you need to see what is taking place in an asset and determine the action to take.  

This approach has worked well for me and our clients and I encourage you to test it for yourself. 

 

Send an email if you would like to see sample research and take me up on a trial of our Premium or Weekly Research where I provide actionable alerts on breakouts and reversals in broad market indices, sectors, commodities, the miners and select individual stocks 

 

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Dow Jones Megaphone pattern, bounce of new support

Below looks at the Dow Jones Industrials Index over the past 100 years on a monthly closing basis-

In the early 1980’s the Dow used old resistance to become new support at (1), where a breakout and strong rallied followed.

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The Dow looks to be using old resistance as new support to push higher off of at (2) again.

Positive price action off new support at (2) continues. For bulls to get concerning long-term concerning message from this pattern, support would need to be taken out at (2).

 

Why you see chart pattern analysis with brief commentary:   

There is a ton of news and opinions about markets and stocks that make the decision-making process more difficult than it needs to be.    

I believe the Power of the chart Pattern provides all you need to see what is taking place in an asset and determine the action to take.  

This approach has worked well for me and our clients and I encourage you to test it for yourself. 

 

 Send an email if you would like to see sample research and take me up on a trial of our Premium or Weekly Research where I provide actionable alerts on breakouts and reversals in broad market indices, sectors, commodities, the miners and select individual stocks 

 

Email services@kimblechartingsolutions.com  

Call us Toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381 

Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM 

 

Receive daily research I post on the blog each day

 

Follow on Twitter 

 

See our latest webinar

 

 

 

 

Why the US Dollar is About to Go Up, and the Euro Isn’t.

With $DXY’s 92.63 monthly close, August 2017’s end likely marked an 8-month high-to-low cycle for the US Dollar – which hovers a mere penny above major support at 92.62 (next major support ~ 91.92).

92.63

That’s where the Dollar ($DXY) closed the month of August.

A full 0.01 above major support at 92.62.

The Dollar’s been hammered for 8-months straight.

It’s gone down for all of 2017.

Yeah, it bounced in February - c’mon.

After an 8-month high-to-low time cycle that shaved off 11.75% (peak-to-trough), the US Dollar appears poised to find its footing and bounce markedly from a cluster of strong price support spanning 92.62 - 91.92 (note $DXY price action and weekly candlesticks across the last few weekly bars of 2014 and first few of 2015 ~ extremely strong support range from massive technical breakout).

Technical Outlook for the US Dollar ($DXY)

~ why it wants higher from here

The combination of a strong 8-month selloff – that ends in a picture-perfect doji, 1 penny above the first major support level going back to 2015 – suggests that a strong bounce is more than likely to develop over the next few months, with 95/96 $DXY the likely target (round number 100 is a longer-term possibility and a floor to absolutely trampoline through 103 if  Big Lil’ Kim launches an EMP that ‘fails’ over Hokkaido/ Sakhalin.

The daily chart below shows the US Dollar with the Super RSI, Super MACD, and Super DMI – it’s worth noting that all four of these technical indicators are showing a clear-cut bullish divergence. This is because every indicator is registering a higher value even though the price of $DXY printed a new swing low.

The following chart shows the exact Pip Strength of individual currencies … 

(EUR, GBP, USD, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD)

… over the last 8-months ~ the timespan when the USD registered it’s last major swing high.

Over this period of time, the USD has been the weakest currency when we tally the total amount of pips lost since January 1st. 

Working from the assumption (albeit measured) that the USD is about to turn up …

what may prove itself the best currency pair trade, from the perspective of technical risk:reward?

EUR has been the strongest performing major currency (represented via Cyan below) but appears ready to cool-off, lose its lust for the luster of 1.20 and turn south (after explicitly failing to plot a new swing high).

i) Looking at a EURUSD monthly chart shows that the open gap from January 2015 has just been filled (to within roughly 20 pips), and

ii) While the 1.2100 level has provided rock-solid support on numerous occasions, we’re now on the other side of it ..

iii) Meaning that same level will likely serve as resistance now – because price is approaching it from below instead of above.

[1] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/most-significant-danger-according-elliotts-paul-singer

[2] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-04/epic-quarterly-letter-elliotts-paul-singer-rages-against-everything-passive-investin

Doc Copper breaking out again, gains are piling up!

Ole Doc Copper has struggled since 2011, as it created a series of lower highs. Over the past 90-days, Doc Copper has experienced some impressive upside action.

Below looks at Doc Copper Futures over the past 4-years-

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Doc Copper created a series of lower highs below line (1) over the past few years. Earlier this year it hit falling resistance again and backed off. Over the past 6-weeks, Copper has witnessed some bullish price action it hasn’t in the past few years, which is breaking above falling highs.

A few weeks ago Copper broke above falling resistance (1) and highs earlier this year at (2). The rally of late now has it testing 2015 highs at (3). A breakout above (3) would send a bullish breakout message to Copper, with the next key horizontal resistance coming into play at the $3.25 level, which was 2014 highs.

How are members playing Doc Copper strength? Buy owning Freeport McMoran (FCX). A position was taken in FCX, by Premium, Metals and Sectors members 90- days ago.

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Doc Copper weakness over the past few years seemed to have little impact on the broad market. Will Doc Copper’s strength over the past few months and breaking above multi-year falling resistance, have a positive impact on the broad market and suggest that some economic strength is around the corner? In our humble opinion it is too early to tell. The Power of the Pattern did share that an opportunity was in play to make some decent Pocket Change 90-days ago and so far that message has not changed. as gains continue to pile up.

from Kimble Charting Solutions.  We strive to produce concise, timely and actionable chart pattern analysis to save people time, improve your decision-making and results

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Dear Regulators: Do you Really Want to Stop Manipulation? Subpoena the Programmers

Why Do Silver and Gold Get Spoofed Lower? Because That"s Where the Stops Are.

via Soren K. Group for Marketslant.com

If you really want to root out manipulation, you must find intent. Intent is encoded in the algorithms themselves. The algos embody the conditions, tactics, and goals of the trader who designed them. They are his intent downloaded into a program. Do you really want to stop manipulation by predatory Algos? Then subpoena the programmers.

VBL EDIT- The  interview below with Daniela Cambone is merely one person"s opinion. But in a world where facts are the final arbiter of truth yet those facts are impossible to obtain, one must survive on his wits. That means using inductive means to asses a trading situation. We traders can only see the market"s behavior, not the intent behind it. Thus we trader types must decide to oppose, surf, or get out of the way of the market behavior we see. Professionals generally accept that and adapt. But the public is punished and taxed daily because of it.

When someone asks me WHY the market does what it does, that puts me in the position of guessing at intent of "Them". Markets are manipulated constantly. That does not mean that the Bullion dealers were "repressing Gold" or on a bearish mission. It just means that they, and the algorithms that succeeded them were finding the lower lying fruit in stops below the market, as opposed to above. Manipulation is agnostic directionally. And in a market like Silver where the shorts are better capitalized than the longs, then the stops closest are on the downside. The problem is as it always has been, poor market structure is exploited by those with the means to do so.

If you really want to root out manipulation, you must find intent. In the past INTENT was almost impossible to prove as it resided in the head of the trader spoofing the market. But now intent is very easy to prove.

Intent is encoded in the algorithms themselves. The algos embody the conditions, tactics, and goals of the trader who designed them. They are his intent downloaded into a program. Do you really want to stop manipulation by predatory Algos? Then subpoena the programmers. That is how they got Mike Coscia. Why would they not go after the bigger violators using this clear approach? You know why..

Subpoena the programmers and you lawyer types will get the 3rd leg of that "legal stool" you need to convict. But you have to want to first. Do you want to? I do not think so. And so the pricing mechanisms of our markets will shrink in importance. But that is just my opinion.

My first post on manipulation covering Warren Buffet"s 1997 Silver Squeeze was anonymous posted on zerohedge for fear of retribution by "them".  How messed  up is that? Maybe justice will be done someday

Here are some choice quotes from the interview:

• the silver and gold market have the majority of their stops lower, not higher – and that’s why the market goes lower.


•  it’s an algorithm, it’s not bullish or bearish  it’s just looking for the stops


• I’m going to come down firmly on the side that it is manipulation and it is unethical and it should stop   


• here’s the problem… the algorithms are now faster than the exchange’s ability to freshen up where its bids are


• it aint just Gold and Silver. The thinner the market, the bigger the spoof

When markets quickly move lower or experience a flash crash, the media is quick to point to a ‘fat finger.’ But, to veteran trader Vince Lanci, the problem is rooted in the technology running markets. ‘Manipulation does happen but what’s happening now is not a fat finger; that’s just a good headline,’ he told Kitco News. ‘It’s a combination of algorithm trading, institutional money and stop losses.’ To Lanci, algorithms are the real issue. ‘It’s an algorithm. It’s not bullish or bearish, it’s just looking for the stops,’ he said. ‘The silver and gold markets have the majority of their stops lower, not higher – and that’s why the market goes lower.’ Lanci, who tracks big market moves often as a contributor on Marketslant.com, said this type of price action can happen in any market. ‘I’m going to come down firmly on the side that it is manipulation, it is unethical and it should stop,’ he said. ‘But here’s the problem -- the algorithms are now faster than an exchange’s ability to freshen up where its bids are.’

 About Vince:

Vince Lanci has 27 years’ experience trading Commodity Derivatives. Retired from active trading in 2008, Vince now manages personal investments through his Echobay entity. He advises natural resource firms on market risk. Over the years, his expertise and testimony have been requested in energy, precious metals, and derivative fraud cases. Lanci is known for his passion in identifying unfairness in market structure and uneven playing fields. He is a frequent contributor to Zerohedge and Marketslant on such topics. Vince contributes to Bloomberg and Reuters finance articles as well. He continues to lead the Soren K. Group of writers on Marketslant.

vlanci@echobay.com

Mobile: (212) 223-1000

Read more by Soren K.Group

King Dollar; Attempting to break 3-year rising support

Below looks at a long-term chart of the US Dollar, that was shared on 12/30/16. This chart highlighted that King Dollar was facing two long term resistance lines, at the 104 zone. (See Post Here). Joe Friday was pointing out this was a rare test of resistance and could be the price zone, where a major top could take place.

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Since Joe Friday pointed out this resistance zone, King$ has declined around 5%, which could be a good reason that Gold, Silver and Mining stocks have done very well so far this year. Below looks at an update on the price action of the US$.

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Line (1) has been support and resistance over the past 20-years. US$ hit the underside of this 20-year resistance line at (2), near the 104 zone highlighted in the top chart, where it stopped on a dime. Since hitting resistance line (1), it has declined around 5% and is back below two key Fibonacci levels.

King$ is now testing 3-year rising support at (3). A break of support at (3), could cause more selling pressure to come forward, causing the US$ to further weaken. The Power of the Pattern feels the US$ has to close on a weekly basis below the 93 level, before strong selling pressure would take place. If the 93 level would be taken out to the downside, suspect metals would attract buyers.

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S&P 500; Reversal pattern last week at key level?

The S&P 500 along with numerous indices have been screaming higher over the past 90-days. Pre-election fear levels were high and stock market bulls, were hard to find. The strong move up, has some sentiment indicators reversing course, from where they were 90-days ago. Sentiment remains important to us, not nearly as important though, as the Power of the Pattern.

The 2-pack below looks at the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a weekly closing basis (left) and Hi/Lo/Closing basis (right), over the past couple of years.

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Without a doubt the trend remains up in the charts above and 1-week’s price action does NOT mean, a trend reversal has taken place.

We do find it interesting that if one takes the “weekly closing highs” last year at (1) and applies Fibonacci to those levels, the 161% extension of the closing highs and lows last year, comes into play at the 238 level. Last week the ratio closed right on the 161% level and may have created a small reversal pattern at (2) last week.

As the same time that the S&P might have created a small reversal pattern the Equal Weight/Cap Weight ratio (RSP/SPY) has been negatively diverging against the S&P 500, for several weeks below.

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Historically, the risk on trade in stocks (being long), prefers to see the RSP/SPY ratio heading higher. When the ratio heads lower, it reflects that fewer and fewer stocks are pushing the market higher (getting thinner).

Since the start of the year, the ratio has traded sideways, inside of the blue shaded channel. Over the past 3-weeks, the ratio has been diverging against the broad markets and last week broke below the sideways channel at (1).

The small reversal pattern last week at Fibonacci 161% level does NOT mean the trend will reverse at these levels. If weakness in the SPY and the RSP/SPY ratio continues, it would slightly increase the odds that the pattern this past week, might have been meaningful.