Showing posts with label JPMorgan Chase. Show all posts
Showing posts with label JPMorgan Chase. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

JPMorgan, BofA Trading Revenues Tumble 15%; Blame Lack Of Volatility, "Excitement"

Stop us when you"ve heard this before... and you"ve heard it exactly two times in the last two quarter: both Bank of America and JPMorgan warning their revenue will be down double digits year over year because volatility is so low, and traders are so paralyzed, there is much less money to be made trading either flow or prop, or simply from collecting commissions.


Well, today marks the third time in the last three quarters when both JPMorgan and Bank of America both said - again - that there hasn’t been a rebound in the relentless slump in trading revenue.


Speaking at an investor conference in New York on Tuesday, JPMorgan CFO Marianne Lake said that revenue from trading has dropped 15% so far this quarter compared with the same period a year ago, while Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan gave the same decline for his firm. Both said the business faces a difficult comparison to last year, when activity spiked after Donald Trump’s surprising presidential election win.


Commenting on the ongoing deterioration in bank revenues, Lake said that “there hasn’t been that many catalysts, it hasn’t been that exciting,” Lake said. “Volatility sill remains pretty low across the spectrum; it’s a very competitive environment.”


Lake spoke alongside Goldman Sachs CFO Marty Chavez and BofA COO Tom Montag, who said at a conference last month that the languor that has plagued their trading businesses in the last two quarters has persisted into the fourth period. According to Bloomberg, Chavez said his bank’s commodities unit is on pace for its worst year in the firm’s history as a public company.


With traditional revenue streams clogged, banks are forced to come up with alternatives. Sure enough, JPM claimed that the lack of volatility hasn’t been a problem in the bank"s corporate and investment bank, where fees should rise in the “high single digits” as activity levels have been healthy, Lake said. And, if passed, the proposed U.S. tax changes should continue to help that business, Lake said.


Clearly markets aren"t too worried, with JPM stock soaring to all time highs, and BofA trading at pre-financial crisis levels.










Tuesday, November 28, 2017

"Hong Kong House Prices Could Soar Another 10% Next Year" - Have They Just Rung The Bell?

Hong Kong property was in Algebris Investments’ top tier of six most inflated bubbles from its longer list of the world’s fourteen biggest bubbles. The territory is ranked as the most expensive housing market in the world for the seventh successive year in 2017, with the medium home price selling for 18.1 times the median household income, according to Forbes. Last week, we discussed how the record price per square foot for a Hong Kong residence was smashed twice on the same day by the same buyer. The buyer paid HK$600 million, or HK$131,000 per square foot for an apartment in the exclusive “The Peak” district. Later that day, the same buyer paid HK$560m for another apartment measuring 4,242 square feet, equivalent to HK$132,000 per square foot. These two purchases beat the previous record of HK$105,000 per square foot paid on 17 September 2017.



In his analysis, Algebris portfolio manager, Alberto Gallo, used a variety of measures to identify irrational behaviour, two of which are “The trend is your friend” and “Sky is the limit”, both which apply to the latest prognostications for Hong Kong property prices from three of its leading real estate agents. According to Bloomberg.


Hong Kong’s red-hot housing market shows no signs of cooling anytime soon. Prices in the city have climbed 11 percent this year, defying skeptics waiting for the bubble to burst and government attempts to rein in the world’s most expensive housing market through a raft of taxes and mortgage curbs.



If anything, the frenzy has intensified in recent months as investors have poured money into property. Buyers have set new records for everything from luxury homes in the exclusive Peak neighborhood to undeveloped residential land. There have also been blockbuster deals for commercial property in the heart of Hong Kong’s central district. “Now it is very hot, because of the hot money rushing in,” said Raymond Ho, deputy senior director of residential development and investment at Savills Plc. “There is more record-breaking coming.”



Runaway growth has put the city in bubble risk territory, according to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index. Even so, mass-market home prices will rise 8 percent to 10 percent next year, according to property consultancy Colliers International Group Inc. Real estate consultant Knight Frank LLP expects prices of such homes to climb 5 percent next year, while luxury housing advances 8 percent.



Helpfully, Bloomberg has conducted a survey of Hong Kong property bulls to discover their reasoning as to why the “Sky is the limit” for prices.


Here are five reasons why property bulls say the city’s housing market will continue to defy expectations of a slowdown:


1. Demand Outstrips Supply
An average 20,000 new private residential units come to market each year, barely enough to cover the 20,000 mainland Chinese who become permanent residents each year -- allowing them to avoid the punitive stamp duties slapped on foreign buyers -- let alone anyone else. The number of unsold apartments in the third quarter fell to the lowest levels since 2015, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.



2. Money’s Easy
Cash-rich developers are pulling out all stops to entice buyers. At its Cullinan West project, Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. is offering buyers finance of as much as 120 percent of the purchase price: 90 percent toward buying the new property, and 30 percent to pay down their existing mortgage. More than 95 percent of the 321 units offered over the weekend sold, Sun Hung Kai said. They were priced about 11 percent higher than a March sale at the same development, according to BOCOM International Holdings Co. Other developers offer rebates to buy furniture or interest-only loans for the first three years.


3. ... and Cheap
In a sign that mortgage wars between banks are raging even amid the prospect of rising interest rates, HSBC Holdings Plc is offering to match low rates from rival lenders. Hong Kong’s largest mortgage lender is offering some clients a rate of Hibor plus 1.28 percent if they get similar terms from other banks. That works out to less than 2 percent.


“These rates are highly affordable and will continue to be, even if the U.S. pushes up rates 25 or 50 basis points,” said Marcos Chan, senior director of head of research for Hong Kong, Southern China and Taiwan at CBRE Inc.


 


4. The Bank of Mom and Dad
The biggest obstacle for new home buyers is coming up with the minimum 40 percent down-payment required by Hong Kong Monetary Authority loan-to-value ratios. Step in the Bank of Mom and Dad. Hong Kong’s de-facto central bank has warned young buyers are increasingly turning to their parents, with home purchases being financed partially by proceeds from refinancing mortgages. That also makes it harder for others whose families aren’t asset-rich to get on the property ladder.


The average number of monthly refinancings rose to 3,100 in the first three quarters of this year from 2,200 in 2016, according to HKMA data.


Through August, the value of refinancing was equal to almost 50 percent of primary sales, according to Cusson Leung, head of research for Hong Kong property and conglomerates at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “We have the sense that most of the financing is going into buying property.”



5. Soaring Land Prices
Aggressive bids by mainland developers keen to build up land banks have pushed Hong Kong prices to records. Non-local developers account for 68 percent of all government land purchases this year, according to Colliers.


In February, two mainland companies paid a record HK$22,118 per square foot for a waterfront site. Those costs will ultimately result in higher apartment prices once developments are completed, causing neighboring property owners to raise their own expectations.


“People translate a land sale into the final built price, and when it is way above the market everyone will raise their own prices,” said Denis Ma, head of Hong Kong research at consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle Inc.



We don’t know when the HK property bubble will burst, but the cascading selling we’ve seen in Chinese financial markets – from government bonds to corporate bonds to equities following October’s Party Congress – is hardly reassuring. Furthermore, as was noted above, Hong Kong mortgages tend to be priced off Hong Kong interbank rates and 1-month HKD Hibor has recently spiked to its highest rate since December 2008, in the midst of the last crisis, which hardly augurs well.



 









Friday, November 17, 2017

After Slamming Bitcoin As A Money Laundering Tool, JPMorgan Busted For Money Laundering

Score one for the poetic irony pages.


Two months after JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon lashed out at bitcoin, calling it a "fraud" which is "worse than tulip bulbs, warning it won"t end well", will "blow up" and "someone is going to get killed" and threatened that "any trader trading bitcoin" will be "fired for being stupid" as it was merely a tool for money-laundering, today Swiss daily Handelszeitung reported that the Swiss subsidiary of JPMorgan was sanctioned by the Swiss regulator, FINMA, over money laundering and "seriously violating supervision laws."


As the newspaper adds, the Swiss sanctions relate to breaches of due diligence in connection with money laundering standards. In other words, JPMorgan was actively aiding and abeting criminal money laundering.


The report further notes, the Finma decision was issued on June 30 and should have been published the following week but JPMorganm tried to prevent the publication of the judgment. More recently, the Federal Administrative Court dismissed the appeal.


In response to money-laundering violation, JPM said that in support of safety and soundness of global monetary system, “we have made and continue to make significant enhancements to the firm’s AML program to ensure we are meeting regulatory expectations,” according to an emailed statement sent to Bloomberg.


Unfortunately, JPMorgan also said that it can’t, or rather won"t, provide further details since the Finma resolution from June 2017 isn’t public.


This means that anyone wondering if Jamie Dimon"s bank was using (and thus trading) bitcoin to circumvent Swiss anti-money laundering regulations, will just have to ask Jamie Dimon in person during his next public appearance.  









Tuesday, October 24, 2017

First, ETFs; Now JPMorgan Incorporates A.I. Into FICC Business

Only yesterday, we commented on the launch of the world’s first A.I.-driven ETF “EquBot LLC, in partnership with ETF Managers Group (ETFMG) launched the world’s first ETF powered by artificial intelligence, the AI Powered Equity ETF (NYSE Arca: AIEQ). According to Business Wire, the new ETF uses ‘cognitive and big data processing abilities of IBM Watson™ to analyze U.S.-listed investment opportunities”.


A mere 24 hours later and JPM has joined the party as Bloomberg reports


At the world’s biggest debt dealer, traders can have trouble making sense of all the action as it happens. So JPMorgan Chase & Co. is bringing in artificial intelligence to give them a picture of the whole trading floor -- and even predict where markets are going. MSX, a data analytics and machine-learning program, is being deployed in the bank’s fixed-income sales and trading operations, New York-based JPMorgan said Monday in a statement. It will compile data from all desks and orders to give salespeople and traders a clearer picture in real time and help them anticipate market moves. Developed by London-based start-up Mosaic Smart Data, the program is already used in JPMorgan’s rates trading.



While the founders of EquBot claim that their proprietary A.I. can replace “an army of research analysts”, Mosaic’s CEO, Matthew Hodgson, had soothing words for the remaining human element in financial markets. He only wants to help salesmen and traders, not replace them.  “Automation of tasks doesn’t equal automation of jobs,’ Hodgson said in a phone interview. It will be another tool a fixed income salesperson can use to make his or her job more efficient and provide better service, he said. Hodgson is a former managing director at Deutsche Bank AG and has worked at Salomon Brothers, according to his LinkedIn profile.”


Mosaic uses the tagline "Your decision cockpit" for the MSX program and is targeting the FICC space:


“Financial institutions are facing a challenging period in FICC markets, largely as a result of the constraints of new regulatory initiatives, high fixed costs and a fragmented market structure. As the volume of data linked to trading activity and interactions with clients increases, the challenge to harness and analyse that data in real time becomes ever more critical. Data-driven banking no longer lies in the future. It is the here and now. Mosaic Smart Data® understands that the true value of data comes not only from the intrinsic individual data streams themselves, but also from the correlations and inferences that can be drawn from the aggregated data from each client. Our cutting edge technology addresses the challenges facing institutions trading in today’s FICC markets, including change management, productivity, efficiency, restructuring and the growing automation of trading processes.”



According to Bloomberg,


The software can identify patterns in data that JPMorgan already generates. It aims to predict client behavior and offer them ideas they’re more likely to be interested in. ‘It’s the ability to measure the business at the empirical, rather than the anecdotal level,’ Hodgson said.


 


‘If I’m really interested to know that, for instance, asset managers are active in a particular asset, I’d be very interested to know what maturity they’re contracting in.”



Mosaic joined JPM’s start up program “In Residence” for fintech companies last year and is the first company to pass out. The program gives start-ups access to JPM employees, systems and facilities and, presumably, some help with funding. Troy Rohrbaugh, JPM’s head of global macro trading stated “The Mosaic platform integrates securely with our existing technology infrastructure, and enables our teams to quickly make better informed decisions.”









Friday, October 20, 2017

ScotiaMocatta Put For Sale After Multibillion Money-Laundering Scandal

The world"s oldest gold trader is for sale after a massive money laundering scandal may have terminally crippled one of the most iconic names in the business.


Canada’s Bank of Nova Scotia is exploring options for its gold business ScotiaMocatta, the Financial Times reported, which include a possible sale of Canada"s most popular precious metals trader. Scotiabank made a decision to sell ScotiaMocatta following a massive money laundering scandal centered on a U.S. refinery that involved smuggled gold from South America. The ScotiaMocatta business, a mainstay in PM trading, is one of London’s main gold trading banks and is being sold by JPMorgan.


According to the FT sources, ScotiaMocatta’s future had been underway for several months, with ScotiaBank allegedly seeking a buyer for up to a year and was likely to shrink the business if a sale is not completed, although according to the article Chinese buyers - the world"s dumbest money these days - are rumoured to be the key targets of the sale.


While gold trading has been in a cyclical decline in recent years, the “straw that broke the camel’s back” in prompting the sale was Scotiabank’s lending to Elemetal, a precious metals refinery in Dallas. Scotiabank was one of its biggest lenders, they said. The problem emerged in March, when US prosecutors accused workers at a subsidiary of Elemetal, NTR Metals in Florida, of a money laundering scheme using “billions of dollars of criminally derived gold” mostly from Peru.


Here the story take a turn into a slightly surreal detour:








NTR imported more than $3.6bn of gold from Latin America between 2012 and 2015, the court documents allege. Two of the accused, Samer Barrage and Juan Granda, pleaded guilty last month to a charge of money laundering in plea deals.


 


After the story came to light in March, Elemetal was kicked off the London Bullion Market Association’s “Good Delivery List” of gold refiners;



This was an almost instant death sentence for the company as buyers will usually only buy gold from a refiner on the list. Indeed, in the same month, New York’s Comex futures exchange said it was no longer taking gold from Elemetal for delivery against futures contracts in the world’s biggest gold futures market.


And this is where the scourge of gold rehypothecation emerged, as in the scandal surrounding Elemetal, it became impossible for holders of Elemetal gold to sell the gold bars on, leaving them sitting in bank vaults, according to traders quoted by the FT. Buyers are reluctant to take the gold, given the investigations.


This means that hundreds of millions in loans made to Elemetal by ScotiaMocatta are suddenly stuck in limbo. It also means that one of five bullion banks that settle gold trades in the London market, the world’s largest, has effectively been blackballed. It was built on the 1997 purchase by Scotiabank of Mocatta Bullion, which traces its roots back to 1671. And with Mocatta crippled, Scotiabank, which has the biggest foreign presence of any Canadian bank, is focusing its international strategy on the Pacific Alliance, a Latin American trade bloc comprising Mexico, Peru, Chile and Colombia. It will also hope to find a willing Chinese buyer for the gold trading operation.


Mocatta"s exit will be good news for HSBC and JPMorgan, which dominate the London market; their large balance sheets enable them to provide credit to clients and refiners around the world. Additionally, and unlike Scotiabank, they also have vaults in London. Gold trading in London is estimated to be worth more than $5tn a year, although as the FT notes, there are no precise figures on how much gold is traded there every day.









Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Dow Hits 23,000 - There's Just One Thing

Just four weeks since The Dow crossed 22,000...but thanks to Goldman, Boeing, Caterpillar, 3M, and JPMorgan (accounting for over 500 Dow points), the mainstream media"s favorite index just topped 23,000 for the first time ever...




With the Top 6 names driving 50% of the index"s move...




However, it seems options traders ain"t buying it...


If everything"s so awesome... why are investors buying Dow protection with both hands and feet?



As retail piles in, so professoinals are hedging to extremes.



Finally - for good measure - "Industrial" Production remains well below 2014 highs... but the "Industrial" Average is soaring...


Wednesday, September 27, 2017

JPMorgan Ordered To Pay Over $4 Billion To Widow And Family

A Dallas jury ordered JPMorgan Chase to pay more than $4 billion in damages for mishandling the estate of a former American Airlines executive.


Jo Hopper and two stepchildren won a probate court verdict over claims that JPMorgan mismanaged the administration of the estate of Max Hopper, who was described as an airline technology innovator by the family’s law firm. The bank, which was hired by the family in 2010 to independently administer the estate of Hopper, was found in breach of its fiduciary duties and contract. In total, JP Morgan Chase was ordered to pay at least $4 billion in punitive damages, approximately $4.7 million in actual damages, and $5 million in attorney fees.


The six-person jury, which deliberated a little more than four hours starting Monday night and returned its verdict at approximately 12:15 a.m. Tuesday, found that the bank committed fraud, breached its fiduciary duty and broke a fee agreement, according to court papers.


"The nation"s largest bank horribly mistreated me and this verdict provides protection to others from being mistreated by banks that think they"re too powerful to be held accountable," said Hopper in a statement. "The country"s largest bank, people we are supposed to trust with our livelihood, abused my family and me out of sheer ineptitude and greed. I"m blessed that I have the resources to hold JP Morgan accountable so other widows who don"t have the same resources will be better protected in the future."


"Surviving stage 4 lymphoma cancer was easier than dealing with this bank and its estate administration," Mrs. Hopper added.


Max Hopper, who pioneered the SABRE reservation system for the airline, died in 2010 with assets of more than $19 million but without a will and testament, according to the statement. JPMorgan was hired as an administrator to divvy up the assets among family members. “Instead of independently and impartially collecting and dividing the estate’s assets, the bank took years to release basic interests in art, home furnishings, jewelry, and notably, Mr. Hopper’s collection of 6,700 golf putters and 900 bottles of wine,” the family’s lawyers said in the statement. “Some of the interests in the assets were not released for more than five years.”





The bank"s incompetence caused more than just unacceptably long timelines; bank representatives failed to meet financial deadlines for the assets under their control. In at least one instance, stock options were allowed to expire. In others, Mrs. Hopper"s wishes to sell certain stock were ignored. The resulting losses, the jury found, resulted in actual damages and mental anguish suffered by Mrs. Hopper. With respect to Mr. Hopper"s adult children, the jury found that they lost potential inheritance in excess of $3 million when the Bank chose to pay its lawyers" legal fees out of the estate account to defend claims against the Bank for violating its fiduciary duty.



Confirming that much of America does not hold Wall Street in high regard, the court’s verdict form showed that  jurors awarded $8 billion in punitive damages against the bank. Alan Loewinsohn, attorney for Jo Hopper, said in an interview there may be duplication of some of the damage findings. He asked the jury to take into account the bank’s worth and asked them for $2 billion in punitive damages. “I believe they used that figure for the other parties in the case as well,” he said.


As a result, he said, the punitive damage award could end up being “somewhere between $4 billion and $8 billion.” The verdict form also shows jurors were advised to consider factors including “the net worth of JPMorgan.” JPM has a market cap of about $330 billion.


At the lower end of that range, the jury’s award would erase almost two-thirds of the $6.6 billion profit that JPMorgan generated globally during the second quarter. According to Bloomberg, it would rank high among the largest sanctions ever levied against the bank - somewhere between the $2.6 billion it agreed to pay in 2014 for allegedly failing to stop Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme, and a $13 billion settlement it reached with government authorities in 2013 for its handling of mortgage bonds that fueled the financial crisis.


"Mrs. Hopper asked the jury to send a message loud enough for JP Morgan to hear it all the way to Park Avenue in Manhattan," said Loewinsohn, "Hopefully, that message has been received."


Probably not: sadly for widow Hopper, she is unlikely to see the full award: large punitive damages verdicts like the one in the Hopper case are often scaled back because the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled they can’t be disproportionate to actual damages. In this case, the jury awarded less than $5 million in actual damages.


The bank said it acted in a professional manner and in good faith on Hopper’s estate and is “highly confident” the jury verdict won’t stand under Texas law.


“Clearly the award far exceeds any possible interpretation of Texas tort reform statutes,” Andrew Gray, a spokesman for the bank, said in an emailed statement. “There has been no judgment entered by the court based on this verdict.”

Sunday, September 17, 2017

If Jamie Dimon Hates It So Much, Why Is JPMorgan Buying Bitcoin In Europe?

Unless you have been living under a rock for the past week, you will be well aware of JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon"s panicked outburst with regard the "fraud" that Bitcoin"s "tulip-like" bubble is. To paraphrase:





"It’s a fraud. It’s making stupid people, such as my daughter, feel like they’re geniuses. It’s going to get somebody killed. I’ll fire anyone who touches it."




Anecdotally, the post-Dimon collapse in crypto prices seems to confirm his view (though of course this is much more due to China concerns than a vested interest fearmonger), which makes us wonder... why is JPMorgan buying Bitcoin ETFs on European exchanges?


Nasdaq Stockholm has an actively traded Bitcoin ETN...


"Bitcoin Tracker One - SEK" is an open-end Exchange Traded Note incorporated in Sweden. The ETN is denominated in SEK and provides investors with access to the returns of the underlying asset, US Dollar per bitcoin, less investor fees.  The average USD exchange rate of bitcoin from the exchanges:- Bitfinex, Bitstamp and GDAX provides the underlying reference price which is converted into SEK.


In the last few days - as the underlying price collapsed - the ETN has remained bid, with heavy inflows, and now trades at around 20% premium to Net Asset Value...




And guess who has been buying?


JPMorgan Securities was the 4th biggest buyer...



h/t @IamNomad


Which suggest two scenarios... Either





i) JPMorgan is buying for its own account at Dimon-manipulated-lower prices (remember Dimon said any trader who bought Bitcoin would be fored for being "stupid"), or



ii) JPMorgan is buying for clients, seemingly offering no sense of fiduciary care amid Dimon"s warning to the world that the cryptocurrency is a fraud (is JPMorgan Securities knowingly allowing clients to buy securities it believes are a fraud?)



Which is it Jamie?


Wednesday, August 9, 2017

The Volcker Rule & The London Whale: "Dear Big Media, Get A Clue"

Authored by Chris Whalen via The Institutional Risk Analyst,






"It is not down in any map; true places never are."



"Moby Dick"


Herman Melville



News reports that prosecutors have dropped their case against Bruno Iksil, the former JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) trader many know as the “London Whale,” comes as no surprise to readers of The IRA Iksil, who resurfaced earlier this year, has been living in relative seclusion in France for the past few years.


In previous comments posted on Zero Hedge, we dispensed with the notion that the investment activities of Iksil and the office of the JPM Chief Investment Officer were either illegal or concealed from the bank’s senior management.  The fact is that Iksil and his colleagues at JPM were doing their jobs, namely generating investment gains for the bank.


The outsized bets made by the “whale” in credit derivatives contracts resulted in a loss in 2012, but the operation generated significant profits for JPM in earlier years.  As veteran risk manager Nom de Plumber told us in Zero Hedge in 2012:





“This JPM loss, whether $2BLN or even $5BLN, is modest in both absolute and relative terms, versus its overall profitability and capital base, and especially against the far greater losses at other institutions. In practical current terms, the hit resembles a rounding error, not a stomach punch.  As either taxpayers or long-term JPM investors, we should be more grateful than sorry about the JPM CIO Ina Drew.   If only other institutions could also do so ‘poorly’………”



When JPM and other large banks began to implement the Volcker Rule after the passage of the 2010 Dodd-Frank law, the activities of Iksil and his colleagues in New York began to come to light. Principal trading, which is now outlawed by the Volcker Rule, creates enormous opportunities – and conflicts -- for banks that act both as traders and lenders.  We wrote in ZH in 2012:





“[D]ear friends in the Big Media, it is time to get a collective clue.  The real problem with CDS trading by large banks such as JPM is not the speculative positions taken by traders like Bruno Iksil, but instead the vast conflict of interest between the lending side of the house and the trading side, whether the trader is on the arb desk or, in the case of Iksil, working for the CIO trading for the bank’s treasury.”



When caught in the act, the bank naturally cast Iksil’s activities as being somehow illicit and against company policy.  But in fact his trading activities had been understood, blessed and even directed by the JPM’s senior management going back years. Far from being a hedge for other exposures of the bank, in fact the strategy of the CIO’s office was to generate returns as the bank’s internal hedge fund.


When as early as 2010 discussions reportedly occurred about “hedging” Iksil’s illiquid credit derivative positions, presumably those involved understood that this was a risk position taken as part of a deliberate investment strategy. That Iksil apparently believed that he could not be bullied by other counterparties because of the fact of trading for JPM speaks to how he viewed his activities, which were entirely visible to other market participants.


The JPM CIO’s office under Ina Drew ran an active trading strategy, making markets around positions on a continuous basis to provide live valuations and generate short-term returns.  The fact that big banks no longer trade their investment books illustrates the diminution of liquidity that has occurred since the adoption of the Volcker Rule. But for the banks, the legacy of the London Whale and the larger implementation of Dodd-Frank has left a deep mark on risk managers and those concerned with maintaining internal systems and controls at large banks.


But now Iksil has accused JPM"s Chief Executive James Dimon of laying the ground for what was eventually a $6.2 billion loss, Reuters reports.  In an account on his website, Iksil also blames senior executives at the bank for the investment strategies that led to those losses.  Iksil’s account now sounds an awful lot like what we heard from his former colleagues in New York some six years ago.


At the time, JPM’s counsel had already mandated the elimination of the managers and traders in the CIO’s area as part of implementing the Volcker Rule, leading to a number of redundancies in New York.  We know about the Whale because of the implementation of the Volcker Rule.  But the key event that broke the scandal open was the public statement by Dimon, this in response to persistent press queries from The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News, that the rumors of losses in the CIO’s office were “a tempest in a teapot.”


But for the public statement by Dimon, which required additional clarification and disclosure, the activities of the CIO that might otherwise have been dealt with in the fine print of JPM’s earnings release.  Instead, JPM was forced to not only enhance disclosure of the CIO’s trading results, but then went through a firestorm of congressional hearings, regulatory questions and litigation that continues to this day.  We recall sitting in the analyst presentation at JPM’s HQ dealing with the London Whale as Ken Langone glared at the assembled audience of Sell Side analysts.


In his congressional testimony, Dimon attributes the bank’s loss to a modeling error, but in fact the exposure was simply ignored.  Notice that at no point has the financial media or regulators questioned the company line about what actually happened and when. Iksil’s statements seem to take us back down that road and, specifically, to suggest that senior management at JPM was actively aware of the strategies taken by the CIOs office years before the big losses occurred.  Our old pal Nom de Plumber commented over the weekend:





“In the end, the London Whale disaster reflected the mis-marking of generic Index CDS trades, which then-CFO Doug Braunstein ignored.   The problem was not complex risk modeling or market risk measurement.   The quants tried to re-jigger VaR measurement of the trades, to avoid breaching risk limits-----for CIO trades which Jamie specifically demanded of Ina Drew......regardless of preceding protests from risk managers like John Hogan and Robert Rupp.”



Nom de Plumber tells The IRA that Ina Drew was essentially running a hedge fund directed by Dimon and other senior managers, a fund that was largely kept outside of the bank’s risk management and reporting procedures. Consider the bizarre situation in 2011-2012 when counterparties of Iksil facing the JPM commercial bank were unable to make margin calls, but the JPM investment bank was making margin calls on these same counterparties for positions in the very same indexed credit derivatives.


Bruno Iksil has waited for the proverbial concrete to harden over the past few years before coming forward with his latest accusations. This makes it difficult or impossible for Dimon and his lieutenants to change their story now.  It will be very interesting indeed to see if anyone from the financial media or even the regulatory community picks up the new trail illuminated by Iksil’s statements.


The episode involving the London Whale illustrates how difficult it is to learn the truth about the inner working of large banks.  Big banks profit by exploiting information and conflicts found between the world of credit and the world of securities.  Indeed, the CIO"s office generated big returns for JPM over the decade or so that Iksil was with the bank. 


But the London Whale episode also shows in graphic terms why the Volcker Rule prohibitions against banks trading for their own account need to be preserved and strengthened.  There is a fundamental conflict between a bank acting as a lender and trading credit derivatives. 


More, if the CEO of a bank – any bank – can short circuit the internal controls of his institution in order to enhance returns with a bet at the credit derivative roulette table, then by definition that bank cannot be safe and sound.

Friday, August 4, 2017

Zuckerberg's Recent Hires Tell Us A Lot About His Worldview And It's Not Good

Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,





Increasingly, a number of influential people in Silicon Valley seem to think that Mark Zuckerberg will likely run for president of the United States one day. And some people, including myself, believe that he could indeed win. “He wants to be emperor” is a phrase that has become common among people who have known him over the years.



From January’s Post: “He Wants to be Emperor” – How Mark Zuckerberg is Scheming to Become President



Mark Zuckerberg wants to be President. That much is obvious, and it’s been obvious for quite some time. I’ve written a couple of articles about it, as have countless others. Then yesterday, there was a lot of chatter about the Facebook CEO hiring Joel Benenson to advise him and his wife on their charitable giving. Most of these articles focused on the superficial “does this really mean he’s running?” angle.



In contrast, I want to dig into why his recent hires tell you all you need to know about who Zuckerberg is, and why his worldview is nothing more than technocratic neoliberalism.


Let’s start off by examining a few excerpts from yesterday’s article from Politico about the hiring of Joel Benenson:





Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan, have hired Democratic pollster Joel Benenson, a former top adviser to President Barack Obama and the chief strategist for Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 presidential campaign, as a consultant, according to a person familiar with the hire.



Benenson’s company, Benenson Strategy Group, will be conducting research for the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, the couple’s philanthropy. The organization — whose mission statement, according to its website, is “advancing human potential and promoting equality” — is endowed with the couple’s Facebook fortune.



In January, the couple hired David Plouffe, campaign manager for Obama’s 2008 presidential run, as president of policy and advocacy. Plouffe had previously worked at Uber. Ken Mehlman, who ran President George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign, also sits on the board.



And earlier this year, the couple also brought on Amy Dudley, a former communications adviser to Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine.



Benenson’s involvement in the group gives them access to someone who was one of the top lieutenants of Clinton’s doomed campaign and Obama’s longtime pollster, just as speculation about Zuckerberg’s political ambitions is mounting.



Even before his is-he-or-isn’t-he road trip, Zuckerberg had shown an interest in politics and social issues. In 2010, he announced during an appearance on “Oprah” that he was donating $100 million to help fix the Newark City public school system in New Jersey. The influx of Facebook cash, however, didn’t generate the desired results, and the gift became a nationally recognized failure of good intentions.



The above is a great indicator of what a Zuckerberg presidency would look like.





But the hiring of Benenson is sure to fuel speculation that Zuckerberg is getting more serious about how he plays in the political and policy worlds.



Let’s start the analysis with Joel Benenson, since he was the topic of the above post. He made quite a name for himself during the Democratic primary by blasting Bernie Sanders and defending the bailed out, welfare queen TBTF Wall Street mega-banks. As reported by David Sirota in the International Business Times:





Hillary Clinton’s campaign held a conference call Thursday with reporters to deride Bernie Sanders for airing an ad that criticized Wall Street firms and the politicians who accept their donations. Though the ad did not mention Clinton by name, the conference call featured her top strategist Joel Benenson portraying the spot as an inappropriate attack on Clinton, whose 2016 campaign has accepted $5.7 million from executives in the financial industry.



On the call, Benenson accused Sanders of going negative, asserting the U.S. senator from Vermont had “decided to do something that he had said so proudly he would never do.” What the Clinton campaign did not say when announcing the call is that Benenson’s firm not only consults for Clinton — it also lists as clients the kind of Wall Street banks that Sanders’ ad assails, as the Intercept’s Lee Fang pointed out.



According to its website, the Benenson Strategy Group lists Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase among its clients. In a 2012 press release, Benenson listed JPMorgan Chase — whose executives are collectively among Clinton’s top 2016 donors — as an example of how the firm “has guided many Fortune 500 companies and leading advocacy groups through critical strategic and communication challenges.” The section of Benenson’s website listing the banks as clients says the firm is focused on “delivering strategies corporations need to stay ahead of the curve.” Other clients listed include McDonald’s, Pfizer and Walmart — the last of which once had Hillary Clinton on its board of directors when she was first lady of Arkansas.



Benenson also proved himself to also be a fierce opponent of transparency during the primary. Recall what he said about Hillary Clinton’s Wall Street speeches:





So far, the Clinton campaign has shown no inclination to release the texts of her remarks to Goldman or anyone else. At a debate in New Hampshire last week, Clinton said she would “look into” the matter. A day after the debate, Clinton pollster Joel Benenson told reporters, “I don’t think voters are interested in the transcripts of her speeches.” On ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, Clinton pushed back even harder on calls to release the speech transcripts.



Now let’s take a look at some of the highlighted clients from Joel’s firm, The Benenson Strategy Group:



The political clients are particularly telling.


Do they represent the views of so many of the people across rural America Zuckerberg claims to be trying to understand? Do they represent anything radically new or populist at all? Of course not.


Moreover, it’s not just Benenson that Zuck is hiring as we saw in the Politico article earlier. He’s hiring a smattering of corporate Democratic strategists and consultants (and even a George W. Bush alum). This tells you so much about who this guy really is and what he believes. He wanders around the country claiming to want to understand “the people” and then he shuffles right over to Clinton/Obama people for wisdom. He doesn’t really want to hear from the rabble or promote genuine populist change, he just wants to be the technocratic leader of another firmly neoliberal American government. That’s all this is.


Much of how Zuckerberg operates focuses on image instead of substance, as we saw throughout his cross-country narcissism tour. Not that this should be a surprise coming from the creator of Facebook, a platform designed so that people can carefully craft a fake public image of themselves for their “friends” to admire.


All of this proves that Mark Zuckerberg has absolutely no creativity or genuine insight when it comes to political thinking. He runs straight to the same neoliberal strategists and corporate Democrats that Americans are sick and tired of, and offers nothing new other than a technocratic face on a failed and expired political class. Ten million cross country road trips to Iowa will never alter this reality.

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Barclays Exit Of Energy Business Triggers Surge In Oil Options Trades

Several hours before the US stock market opened on Monday, the commodity world was shaken by an unexpected surge in crude options trades, with traders noting that "someone is either moving positions, blown up or getting out of commodities. MASSIVE amount of blocks going through in crude options."



A Bloomberg alert shortly after confirmed the huge size of trades crossing the tape, when nearly $100 million in oil options traded simultaneously:





WTI crude oil options traded the equivalent of 48m bbl of contracts via block, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.


  • Total value of all options combined is ~$99m

  • Options include contracts from September 2017 through December 2020

  • 5 largest blocks were: 4.4k Dec. $90 calls, 2.8k Dec. $60 calls, 2.5k Dec. $125 calls, 1.7k Dec. $95 calls, 1.4k Dec. $46 calls

  • Click here for Excel detailing the value of each trade

  • Trades all took place at 9:35am London time

  • Contracts also traded with 9.6k lots of futures

  • Similar trades also occurred on Brent in smaller volumes ~10:35am London time


As it turns out later, it wasn"t a fund liquidating, but Barclays selling the last part of its legacy oil book to an unidentified buyer, that triggered the surge in trading of exotic options most of which were written in the era of higher crude prices, Bloomberg reported this afternoon.


The size of the trade, which set traders on alert earlier, represented some 48 million barrels of contracts which "represents more than a quarter of the entire volume on an average trading day."


Barclays announced that it was exiting its energy trading business altogether last December - which until that point had been housed in its macro-trading unit - when the British bank joined an exodus that analysts then said raised concern among oil producers that falling liquidity means they cannot use derivatives for their basic function: to hedge risk by locking in future prices. As Reuters reported at the time, the departure of Barclays exacerbated the scarcity of counterparties for trade when producers are trying to hedge their production for 2018 and beyond, potentially raising the cost to lock in that output. That increase, analysts speculated, could force some cash-strapped producers to forgo protection altogether, putting them at risk if the market takes another leg down.


One point of uncertainty in December was what Barclays was going to do with its trade book: at the time, analysts pointed out that Barclays could unwind hedges that it already conducted with market participants. The other option would be to sell the hedge book, thereby passing on any risk to another player.


This is precisely what happened on Monday, when Barclays" transaction marked the final sale of the business.


A look at the derivatives that crossed the tape on Monday "were suggestive of a bygone era of oil prices above $100 a barrel", Bloomberg wrote. The strike prices for some of the options were far from today’s prices, suggesting they may have been part of deals struck years ago.


Three of the 4 largest trades would profit if crude rises above $90, $95 or $125 a barrel by the end of this year. There were also rarely seen deep “in the money” options on the global benchmark Brent, that would allow the holder to sell crude at $80 a barrel. The contracts ranged from September this year to December 2020.



As Bloomberg concluded, while the transactions are small for Barclays, they’re much more profound for an oil market where banks are increasingly scaling back. Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG all reduced or exited commodities trading over the past several years, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was said to be reviewing its activities.


The counterpart(ies) on the Barclays trade remain unidentified.


Perhaps the best news from today"s book sale is that it concluded smoothly and without any major market impact, suggesting it was planned well in advance. The question is what would happen to the oil derivative market if a similarly-sized block hit the tape ad hoc and without prior warning. For the sake of the Fed"s "market stability" mandate, let"s hope we don"t find out.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

McKinsey: Banks Will Have To Slash 30% Of Analyst Jobs To Comply With New Research Rules

As the global equity research market continues to wrestle with how they will comply with the European Union"s MiFID II regulations, McKinsey & Co. has just penned a new study effectively saying they"ll have no choice but to fire a ton of equity research analysts who write a bunch of stuff that no one ever reads...which seems like a reasonable guess.  Per Bloomberg:





Europe’s impending ban on free research will cost hundreds of analysts their jobs with banks set to cut about $1.2 billion of investment on the area, according to a report by McKinsey & Co.



The consultancy estimates the $4 billion that the top-10 sell-side banks currently spend on research annually is likely to fall by 30 percent as clients become pickier about what they pay for, McKinsey Partner Roger Rudisuli said in an interview. Investment banks’ cash equity research headcount has fallen 12 percent to 3,900 since 2011 compared with as much as 40 percent in sales and trading, leaving the area facing “big cuts” to catch up, he said.



“Two to three global banking players will preserve their status in the new era, winning the execution arms race and dominating trading in equities around the globe,” McKinsey said in a report Wednesday, which Rudisuli helped write. “Over the coming five years, banks will need to make hard choices and play to their strengths. Not only will the top ranks be thinned out, there will be shakeouts in regional markets.”



For those who have managed to avoid this particular distraction, the global equity research industry is in the midst of a major disruption which has been brought on by the European Union’s MiFID II regulations, enforced from Jan. 3, which aim to tackle conflicts of interest by requiring asset managers to separate the trading commissions they pay from investment-research fees.


ER



Of course, the biggest problem with such a regulation continues to be that literally no one knows the true "value" of equity research, not even the investment banks that are selling it.





Firms are also debating how to price analyst reports, with some firms modeling packages on cable TV subscriptions, running from basic to “all-in” offers, according to the report. Deutsche Bank AG has pitched clients a metered, “pay as you go” approach whereas JPMorgan Chase & Co. has quoted customers a $50,000 flat fee for basis access to fixed-income analysis, people familiar with the matter have said.



“Banks are scrambling to get these pricing infrastructures in place, as well as how they do tracking and invoicing,” Rudisuli said. “They are all rushing to the finish line to be ready in January.”



And perhaps that has something to do with the fact that, as we"ve said before, institutional clients couldn"t care less about the 300 research reports they receive daily (all of which can be boiled down to one simple thesis: Buy The Fucking Dip), but rather only about gaining access to corporate management teams so they can get "color" on upcoming earnings reports.





Another change Rudisuli foresees for the industry is the start of bidding wars for the most valuable commodity banks can offer investors: time with corporate leaders and their star analysts.



“Banks will experiment at first, but over time we could see things like auctions could take a more prominent role; at the end of the day there are only five seats in these meetings,” he said. “The challenge there will be that the people willing to pay the most will be hedge funds, but the preference for corporates will be to meet with only long-only investors.”



Of course, as we"ve said before, almost any amount of money seems, at least to us, to be too much to have the same people give you the same advice over and over again, namely "buy more stocks, faster."  There, we just summarized 90% of all equity research that will ever be written for the rest of history in 4 simple words and completely free of charge.  You"re welcome.

Monday, June 19, 2017

The World's Top 100 Companies: Revenue Versus Profits

Just over a month ago, Visual Capitalist published a very tidy data visualization that summed up the top 50 companies in the world by revenue, based on data from Forbes.


But, as Jeff Desjardins notes, just looking at revenue numbers doesn’t give a full picture on how these companies compare – and many investors care much more about a different performance metric: profit.


Roday’s data visualization from Ishtyaq Habib shows the top 100 biggest companies by market value, but uses circles to represent both the revenue and profit for each company. There’s also an interactive version of the same chart here as well, which highlights the specific numbers for each company highlighted.






APPLE = A MONEY-MAKING MACHINE


The first noticeable difference in this version?


It’s that Apple is unparalleled in its ability to make money. In fact, Apple’s 2016 profit of $45 billion is far bigger than any other company, including Berkshire Hathaway ($24 billion), JPMorgan Chase ($24 billion), Wells Fargo ($22 billion), Alphabet ($19 billion), Samsung ($19 billion), Toyota ($17 billion), Johnson & Johnson ($16 billion), or Walmart ($14 billion).


The only companies that can compare with Apple were Chinese banks like ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, or China Construction Bank, but in many ways these state-owned enterprises are on an entirely different playing field, anyways.


Also impressive: Apple’s profits are bigger than the revenues of massive companies like Coca-Cola ($41.5 billion) or Facebook ($27.6 billion).


MARGINS, SCHMARGINS


Unfortunately, not every company can make a 21% profit margin on $217 billion of revenue like Apple.


Other organizations need to rely on razor-thin margins and volume to make things work. Walmart only brought in $14 billion of profit off of a whopping $485 billion of revenue – a margin of just 2.8%. Meanwhile, fast-growing Amazon was in a similar boat with margins of 1.7%, largely provided by its wildly successful AWS service.


Lastly, it is also worth noting that some on the list did not make a margin at all. These are mostly companies that are suffering from the challenges of down cycles in natural resources. Chevron and mining giant Glencore, for example, were two of the Top 100 Companies that both lost money in 2016, while BP essentially broke even.

Thursday, June 1, 2017

Ethereum Forecast To Surpass Bitcoin By 2018

Back on  February 27, when bitcoin was trading in the mid-teens, we wrote "Step aside bitcoin, there is a new blockchain kid in town."





In recent days, the world"s second most popular digital currency, Ethereum, has been surging (despite its embarrassing hack last June when some $59 million worth of "ethers" were stolen forcing the blockchain to implement a hard fork to undo the damage), prompting many to wonder if some big announcement was imminent. It appears that yet again someone "leaked" because on Monday, an alliance of some of the world"s most advanced financial and tech companies including JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, Intel and more than two dozen other companies teamed up to develop standards and technology to make it easier for enterprises to use blockchain code Ethereum - not bitcoin - in the latest push by large firms to move toward the holy grail of a post-central bank world in which every transaction is duly tracked: a distributed ledger systems.



Commenting on the sharp - for the time - rise in ETH price (which had moved from $13 to $15), we said "the move may be just the beginning if most corporations adopt Ethereum as the distributed ledger standard: Accenture released a report last month arguing that blockchain technology could save the 10 largest banks $8 billion to $12 billion a year in infrastructure costs — or 30 percent of their total costs in that area." Since then most corporations have indeed adopted Ethereum as the distributed ledger standard.


* * *


Three months later, and with Ethereum 15x higher at $230, Bloomberg today writes: "Step aside, bitcoin. There’s another digital token in town that’s winning over the hearts and wallets of cryptocurrency enthusiasts across the globe."


It"s not just the lede that is familiar, it"s everything else too, especially the forecast.


The value of ether - the digital currency linked to the ethereum blockchain - could surpass that of bitcoin by the end of 2018, according to Olaf Carlson-Wee, chief executive officer of cryptocurrency hedge fund Polychain Capital who was interviewed by Bloomberg.


"What we’ve seen in ethereum is a much richer, organic developer ecosystem develop very, very quickly, which is what has driven ethereum’s price growth, which has actually been much more aggressive than bitcoin," said Carlson-Wee, in an interview on Bloomberg Television Tuesday.


As we previously reported, while Ethereum suffered an embarrassing hack last summer resulting in the theft in millions of ether, the cryptocurrency has drawn the interest of industries from finance to health care because its blockchain does far more than let bitcoin users send value from one person to another. "Its advocates think it could be a universally accessible machine for running businesses, as the technology allows people to do more complex actions in a shared and decentralized manner."


Which is why ethereum is gaining increasingly more converts. Carlson-Wee wasn’t the first to forecast a bright future for ethereum. Fred Wilson, co-founder and managing partner at Union Square Ventures, laid out an even more ambitious timeline for the cryptocurrency in an interview earlier this month.


"The market cap of ethereum will bypass the market cap of bitcoin by the end of the year," said Wilson, who is also chairman of the board at Etsy.


In fact, if one looks at the relative market share of various cryptocurrencues, and extrapolates current trends, ethereum could surpass bitcoin in just a few months.


Bitcoin currently dominates a little less than half of the digital currency market, down from almost 90 percent three months ago, according to Coinmarketcap.com data. Meanwhile, ethereum has quadrupled its share, which now represents more than a quarter of the pie.


Indicatively, as of this moment, the market cap of Bitcoin is $37 billion, 75% higher than Ethereum. If the optimsitic forecasts are accurate, Ethereum, which is currently offered at $230, will cost roughly $400 next time we look at  it, if not more. What is more interesting is that while bitcoin hit an all time high of approximately $2900 one week ago, it has failed to recapture the highs, even as ethereum has continued surging ever higher, perhaps a sign of a broad momentum shift from the legacy "cryptocoin" to the "up and comer."


"We’re absolutely still in the infrastructure building phase," Carlson-Wee said. "But I do think within one to two years, we’ll start to see the first viral applications that are user facing."


In any case, for readers interested in putting money into either extremely volatile crypto, be prepared, in fact assume, a complete loss of your investment as chasing such speculative manias rarely has a happy ending. Then again, trying to time the peak of any bubble is a fool"s endeavor. Just look at the S&P.





Bitcoin’s growth has started to catch up to its fundamentals, which is likely what has been driving its astronomical gain as of late, he said. Others have attributed the surge to speculation, as well as increased interest in Asia and adoption by established companies.



Impressive performance aside, more than $150 has been knocked off bitcoin’s price since late last week amid concerns about transaction speed, safety and a possible price bubble.



Full interview below.

Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Commercial Banks Slash Auto Loans Outstanding For First Time In Six Years

After the subprime mortgage bubble burst back in 2009, new regulations prevented banks from rushing right back into mortgages to re-inflate a market that nearly took down the global financial system.  Of course, Uncle Sam didn"t restrict wall street from blowing massive bubbles in all asset classes, in fact the Fed seemingly condones it, just the mortgage market.


And so, all that loan volume shifted to autos...




...and student loans.




Alas, it seems as though commercials banks are finally starting to wonder whether they"ve inflated at least the auto loan bubble to the brink of bursting.  As the Financial Times points out today, the FDIC"s commercial lending report for 1Q 2017 showed that commercial banks slashed their auto loan exposure sequentially for the first time in the past six years.





But data released last week by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation showed the first sequential drop in car loans outstanding at commercial banks in at least six years. The total slipped $1.6bn to $440bn from the fourth quarter of last year to the first of this, suggesting that banks — wary of repeating the mistakes of the subprime mortgage crisis — have been spooked by rising delinquencies and the threat of litigation. 



Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase, the two biggest banks in the sector, saw first-quarter originations drop by double digits from the same period a year earlier. Even relatively aggressive specialists such as Capital One — which added a net $2bn to its $50bn car loan book over the first quarter — are toning down their outlook.



“We’re certainly one more notch cautious,” said Richard Scott Blackley, chief financial officer, noting bigger-than-expected falls in used car prices in the first quarter. “We think that by pulling back a little bit, we’re going to . . . maximise price over volume,” he said.



But for all you banking investors out there who are worried about replacing that juicy auto lending revenue stream, fear not because Citizens Financial"s CEO would like for you to know that while they "ran up auto for a while" they now see "better risk-adjusted returns" in things like student loans.... 





One of the banks pulling back is Citizens Financial Group, the US’s ninth largest by assets. Bruce van Saun, chief executive, told the Financial Times he would rather steer resources into areas such as student loans. “We ran up auto for a while when there was not much else going on. Now we have growth in other areas which offer better risk-adjusted returns.”



...which we guess is true if you simply ignore the fact that over $135 billion of student loans are currently in default.  


Of course, this shouldn"t be new news to our readers as we recently pointed out that after 21 consecutive quarters of loosening lending standards from 2Q 2011 through 2Q 2016, commercial banks finally started to pull back on auto loans in 3Q 2016...





Lending Standards Have Eased...: While overall household debt remains below pre-crisis peaks, auto debt has ballooned to all-time highs. While this debt grew, the median FICO score of borrowers receiving auto loans fell roughly 30 points from peak to trough. According to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS), auto lenders eased lending standards for 21 consecutive quarters from 2Q 2011 through 2Q 2016.



...but Lenders Now Appear to Be Reversing Course and Tightening Standards: While FICO scores did drop precipitously, they have recovered in recent months, and the SLOOS reports 3 quarters of tightening standards after the 21 of easing. A look at the weighted average FICO scores of loans going into subprime ABS deals reveals similar trends, with a number of lenders reporting increases in these scores over recent years. However, the overall trend has moved lower since 2013.



Subprime



...which probably had something to do the soaring delinquency rates that have resulted from years of declining underwriting standards.


Subprime



But sure, 18mm new cars per year is probably a "normalized" level of demand for the U.S. market...just like 1.3mm in new home sales was "normal" in 2005.

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Wall Street Is Pouring Money Back Into Shale

Authored by Nick Cuningham via OilPrice.com,



With oil prices seemingly on firm footing, Wall Street is pouring money back into the shale sector, expecting profits even at $50 per barrel.


The private equity industry raised an estimated $19.8 billion in funds for energy investment in the first quarter of this year, or about three times as much as the same period in 2016. The figures indicate a more aggressive approach from private equity in shale drilling, and rising expectations that the oil market is set to rebound. The data comes from Preqin, and was reported on by Reuters.



The optimism comes even as oil prices have languished in the $50 per barrel range since November, after briefly dipping into the $40s last month. The hopes of a stronger rebound by now have been dashed, and oil analysts have steadily revised their expectations, pushing out their projections for stronger price gains. The extraordinary gains in U.S. crude oil inventories in the first quarter caught the market – and OPEC – by surprise, killing off hopes of oil heading north of $60 per barrel.


But the new money from Wall Street need not depend on $60+ oil. Lenders are confident that their investments will turn out to be profitable even at the prevailing market price today. That is because shale drillers have dramatically cut their costs, pushing breakeven prices down. "Shale funders look at the economics today and see a lot of projects that work in the $40 to $55 range," Howard Newman, head of private equity fund Pine Brook Road Partners, told Reuters. His firm dumped $300 million in Permian driller Admiral Permian Resources LLC in March.


Lenders are already doing much better than they expected. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup announced that they have an additional $370 million from the first quarter to use at their disposal, a collective sum that had been set aside to be used for expected losses on their energy portfolios. The better-than-expected performance from the energy sector could entice the banks to increase lending. Bloomberg reports that the volume of leveraged loans – loans made to indebted companies – shot up by 86 percent in the first quarter, compared to 1Q2015.


A survey from Haynes & Boone of oil companies, banks and private equity found a high degree of confidence that the ongoing credit redetermination period – a twice-a-year review by lenders of their credit lines to drillers – will be favorable to the energy industry. Of the 163 people surveyed, roughly 76 percent said they expect credit lines to either remain unchanged or even increase. In other words, banks are not backing away from the shale industry, and in some cases, they are pouring more money in.


There are several reasons for optimism. New figures from China show that its economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, a sign that oil demand will grow at a steady, if not blistering pace. Global oil inventories are falling. Some geopolitical events have knocked some supply offline. And OPEC is doing its best to keep prices afloat. All in all, there is a growing consensus that the market is tightening.


But higher oil prices are not a given. In fact, another downturn is not out of the question either. The most recent rebound in prices came in part because of an outage in Libya – more than 200,000 bpd recently knocked offline. But Libya’s National Oil Company recently reopened a shuttered oil field and has plans to restore output at another. Nobody can make solid projections about what will happen with Libya’s output, but the outage could be temporary. Meanwhile, shale output is surging and more rigs are being added back to the field every week – a development not unrelated to the wave of money coming from Wall Street.





"All the signs of an ever-growing bull market are starting to fade away, (with) Libya and geo-political tensions easing, but also because the Texans are back and they are pumping like there"s no tomorrow," Matt Stanley, a fuel broker at Freight Investor Services (FIS) in Dubai, told Reuters in an interview. "If I were OPEC, I"d be pretty worried."



Nevertheless, a few major investors say that another price downturn would not necessarily kill off their optimism. For example, Orion Energy Partners told Reuters that they would continue to lend to shale drillers even if WTI plunged as low as $40 per barrel. But many financiers believe that OPEC will extend its production cuts anyway, which will likely put a floor beneath prices, ensuring that their investments pay off.


Other investors apparently agree. Bullish bets continue to rebound in the oil futures market, with hedge funds and other money managers posting a second consecutive week of increases in net-long positions. Saudi Arabia is reportedly on board with an extension of the OPEC cuts, although Saudi officials say it is a bit early to make that call. In fact, OPEC appears to be targeting $60 per barrel. OPEC sources told the WSJ that officials from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait are in agreement that they should aim for $60 per barrel, which would obviously require at least a six-month extension of the collective output reductions.


At $60 per barrel, OPEC thinks, oil-producing countries can take in more revenue while prices will be low enough to prevent a dramatic resurgence in U.S. shale. But they may be wrong about that last point.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

US "Too Big To Fail" Banks Top $1 Trillion - What Happens Next?

For the first time ever, the market cap of America"s "Big Four" banks topped $1 trillion having surged 30% since Donald Trump was elected president. While to some this is cause for celebration, we note that the last time a nation"s "big four" banks topped $1 trillion in market cap did not end well...


As Bloomberg notes, the four biggest U.S. banks were worth the most on record versus China"s "Big Four" this month, as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citigroup were worth over $250 billion more than Industrial & Commercial Bank, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China combined.


The four Chinese banks, the world"s most profitable, were worth about the same as the U.S. foursome as recently as June.



However, as the chart above shows, while the American quartet"s combined market value closed above $1 trillion for the first time last month, China achieved that goals in June 2015... and it did not end well.

Friday, February 17, 2017

Mary Jo White Seriously Misled The US Senate To Become SEC Chair

Submitted by Pam Martens and Russ Martens via WallStreetOnParade.com,


Less than two weeks after Mary Jo White was nominated to become Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission by President Barack Obama on January 24, 2013, White filed an ethics disclosure letter advising that she would “retire” from her position representing Wall Street banks at the law firm Debevoise & Plimpton. White wrote on this subject in great detail, stating:


“Upon confirmation, I will retire from the partnership of Debevoise & Plimpton, LLP. Following my retirement, the law firm will not owe me an outstanding partnership share for either 2012 or any part of 2013. As a retired partner, I will be entitled to the use of secretarial services, office space and a blackberry at the firm’s expense. For the duration of my appointment, I will forgo these three benefits, though I may pay for some secretarial services at my own expense. Pursuant to the Debevoise & Plimpton, LLP Partners Retirement Program, I will receive monthly lifetime retirement payments from the firm commencing the month after my retirement. However, within 60 days of my appointment, the firm will make a lump sum payment, in lieu of making monthly retirement payments for the next four years. Within 60 days of my appointment, I also will receive payouts of my interest in the Debevoise & Plimpton LLP Cash Balance Retirement plan and my capital account.”


Yesterday it was widely reported in the business press that Mary Jo White is returning to her former law firm as a partner representing clients who face government investigations. She will also fill the newly created position of Senior Chair of the law firm.


This news is highly significant because it would appear that the U.S. Senate was seriously misled by White’s ethics letter in its deliberations to confirm her as the top cop of Wall Street.


The news is also highly significant because it will mark the fourth time in four decades that Mary Jo White has spun through the revolving doors of Debevoise & Plimpton (where she represented serial law violators) to government service (prosecuting serial law violators). The timeline is as follows:


2002 to 2013: White is a Debevoise & Plimpton partner, representing some of Wall Street’s serially charged banks: JPMorgan Chase, UBS, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley;


1993 to 2002: White is U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York (where Wall Street is located);


1990 to 1993: White serves as First Assistant United States Attorney and Acting United States Attorney in the Eastern District of New York;


1983 to 1990: White is litigation partner at Debevoise & Plimpton, where she focuses on white collar defense work, SEC enforcement matters and other corporate work;


1978 to 1981: White works as Assistant United States Attorney in the Southern District of New York, where she became Chief Appellate Attorney of the Criminal Division;


1976 to 1978: White is Associate at Debevoise & Plimpton.


White’s representation in 2013 that she was retiring proved very financially beneficial to her. Her Partners Retirement Program entitled her to receive $42,500 per month or $510,000 per year. But as White writes in her ethics letter, (ostensibly as a gesture toward removing the conflict of receiving ongoing monies from her old law firm), Debevoise was going to give her a “lump sum” for four years of payments, or more than $2 million. The Partner’s plan was unfunded, meaning the law firm had to stay in business to make those payments. Getting a cool $2 million out of harm’s way is a smart financial move. On top of that, White indicated in her ethics letter that she was cashing out of the “Debevoise & Plimpton LLP Cash Balance Retirement plan and my capital account.”


Not only was Mary Jo White a deeply conflicted candidate for SEC Chair but her husband, John White, also represented the big Wall Street banks as a partner at Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP. Under Federal ethics rules, the conflicts of the spouse become the conflicts of the government employee. None of this persuaded members of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee (many of whom are richly financed in their political campaigns by Wall Street) to reject Mary Jo White’s nomination. The lone dissenter in the Committee’s 21-1 vote was Senator Sherrod Brown, who stated:


“At a time when our Attorney General says that the biggest Wall Street banks are in many ways above the law and the SEC is blocking shareholders’ efforts to break up the banks that they own, we need regulators who will fight every day for taxpayers, Main Street investors, and retirees. But too often we have seen public servants who settle for the status quo, instead of demanding accountability.


“I don’t question Mary Jo White’s integrity or skill as an attorney. But I do question Washington’s long-held bias towards Wall Street and its inability to find watchdogs outside of the very industry that they are meant to police. Mary Jo White will have plenty of opportunities to prove me wrong. I hope she will.”


Mary Jo White did not prove Senator Brown wrong. During her tenure, the long-awaited Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT) failed to get up and running – allowing all of those high frequency traders and Dark Pools on Wall Street to continue to loot the investing public with impunity. White also allowed the big banks to continue their jaded practice of engaging in capital relief trades as her former law firm gushed that the deals could be “effective use of balance sheet capital as banking organizations adjust to the post-crisis regulatory paradigm.”


During White’s tenure, a 25-year veteran trial lawyer at the SEC, James Kidney, retired in March 2014. At his retirement party, he delivered a scathing critique of SEC management. Kidney said that “On the rare occasions when Enforcement does go to the penthouse, good manners are paramount. Tough enforcement – risky enforcement – is subject to extensive negotiation and weakening.” White brought along her Enforcement Chief at the SEC, Andrew Ceresney, from Debevoise & Plimpton. He also returned to the law firm.


By June of 2015, White’s management of the SEC was so problematic that Senator Elizabeth Warren sent her a harsh 13-page critique of her performance. Warren called out White’s failure to finalize rules requiring disclosure of the ratio of CEO pay to the median worker; her continuing use of waivers for companies that violate securities law; the SEC’s continued practice of settling the vast majority of cases without requiring meaningful admissions of guilt; and White’s repeated recusals from investigations because of her prior employment and her husband’s current employment at law firms representing Wall Street.


In February 2015, the New York Times reported that the conflicts of White and her husband had resulted in her recusing herself “from more than four dozen enforcement investigations.” Instead of an SEC Chair, that sounds like a part-time worker.


Given this demoralizing experience with the gold-plated Washington-Wall Street revolving door, one would have expected that President Trump, the man promising to drain the swamp in Washington, to have come up with a better plan for stewardship of the SEC. Instead, Trump’s doubling down. His nominee for SEC Chair is Jay Clayton, a law partner at Sullivan & Cromwell, which has represented Goldman Sachs since the late 1800s. On top of that, Clayton’s wife is a Vice President of (wait for it) Goldman Sachs.


Until there is meaningful legislative reform of political campaign financing and revolving door appointments, Americans will continue to be relegated to the status of dumb tourist in their own country.