Showing posts with label Alternative currencies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alternative currencies. Show all posts

Monday, February 19, 2018

Here’s Why Banks Hate Cryptocurrencies

This report was originally published by Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge



Banks like to pretend that they’re so much more established and secure than the world of cryptocurrencies, but as anybody who pays close attention to the headlines would know…that’s just not the case…


Setting aside all of their rhetoric about embracing the blockchain, banks have mostly avoided or opposed cryptos (Goldman Sachs, sensing the opportunity for profit, is one notable exception), often citing their volatility and the ease with which they can be used to launder money as qualities that disqualify them from being taken seriously (though, as we recently witnessed with the US dollar, perhaps banks need to rework this volatility argument a bit).  Even yesterday’s announcement of the first criminal charges against a cryptocurrency trader pales in comparison to the many, many crimes that banks (or even one bank) have settled allegations of. The real answer to why the banks’ dislike cryptocurrencies is probably because they feel threatened. The recent selloff notwithstanding, the rise of cryptocurrencies has continued unabated, despite the efforts of some of the most powerful governments on Earth, while the concept is still very young, it does have potential to shake up the aging fiat system. In order to understand the race between the banks and cryptocurrencies, we developed a visual to see just how “David” is comparing to “Goliath.”


Using data from Yahoo Finance and CoinMarketCap.com, HowMuch.com‘s data team developed a visual that compares the market caps between some of the world’s largest banks and the largest cryptocurrencies. On the left blue column, there are four banks listed from largest to smallest market caps: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of China, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley. Conversely, the right red column features the total cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, NEO, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, Cardano, and Stellar. The larger the circle, the bigger the market cap.


Crypto



Total Crypto Market Exceeds Size Of JPMorgan; Banks Fight Back In Attempt To Slow Growth


After an extraordinarily volatile (even for bitcoin) start to the year, cryptocurrencies are rallying once again, with bitcoin breaking above $10,000. As of Feb. 16, 2018, the crypto market had a market cap of $470 billion – larger than the size of the United States’ largest bank, JPMorgan Chase.


Bitcoin’s market cap alone is comparable to Bank of China’s. The second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Ethereum, is comparable in size to Morgan Stanley. It is stats like these that have the global banking sector worried that cryptocurrencies are on track to make a serious impact on their operations.


One of the most recent efforts to help slow the pace of crypto growth were announcements from several banks saying that customers could no longer purchase digital currency with their credit cards. Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger has called Bitcoin “totally asinine” and Warren Buffet has said he would “buy a five-year put on every cryptocurrency.”


Overall, cryptocurrencies are seeing their size and value top even some of the largest financial institutions in the world. This has caused banks to fight back and attempt to slow their growth. However, even banks clearly don’t know what they really want. After JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon famously declared Bitcoin a “fraud”, it is interesting to now see a report published by the investment bank that calls Bitcoin-based ETFs the “holy grail for owners and investors.”


And should the bitcoin ETF become a reality, do you really think banks will turn down those lucrative fees?


What do you think?


Tuesday, February 6, 2018

What The Crypto Crash & Stock Market Plunge Have In Common

This article was originally published by Adam Taggart at PeakProsperity.com


newspaper-economic-crisis


Today saw Jerome Powell sworn into office as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, replacing Janet Yellen. Looking at the sea of red across Monday’s financial markets, Mr. Powell is very likely *not* having the sort of first day on the job he was hoping for…


Also having a rough start to the week is anyone with a long stock position or a cryptocurrency portfolio.


The Dow Jones closed down over 1,200 points today, building off of Friday’s plunge of 666 points. The relentless ascension of stock prices has suddenly jolted into reverse, delivering the biggest 2-day drop stocks have seen in years.


But that’s nothing compared to the bloodletting we’re seeing in the cryptocurrency space. The price of Bitcoin just broke below $7,000 moments ago, now nearly two-thirds lower from its $19,500 high reached in mid-December. Other coins, like Ripple, are seeing losses of closer to 80% over the same time period. That’s a tremendous amount of carnage in such a short window of time.


And while stocks and cryptos are very different asset classes, the underlying force driving their price corrections is the same — a change in sentiment.


Both markets had entered bubble territory (stocks much longer ago than the cryptos), and once they did, their continued price action became dependent on sentiment much more so than any underlying fundaments.


The Anatomy Of A Price Bubble


History is quite clear on how bubble markets behave.


On the way up, a virtuous cycle is created where quick, outsized gains become the rationale that attracts more capital into the market, driving prices up further and even faster. A mania ensues where everyone who missed out on the earlier gains jumps in to buy regardless of the price, desperate not to be left behind (this is called fear of missing out, or “FOMO”).


This mania produces a last, magnificent spike in price — called a “blow-off” top — which is then immediately followed by an equally sharp reversal. The reversal occurs because there are simply no remaining new desperate investors left to sell to. The marginal buyer has suddenly switched from the “greater fool” to the increasingly cautious investor.


Those sitting on early gains and looking to cash out near the top start selling. They don’t mind dropping the price a bit to get out. So the price continues downwards, spooking more and more folks to start selling what they have. Suddenly, the virtuous cycle that drove prices to their zenith has now metastasized into a vicious cycle of selling, driving prices lower and lower as panicking investors give up on their dreams of easy riches and increasingly scramble to limit their mounting losses.


In the end, the market price retraces nearly all of the gains made, leaving a small cadre of now-rich early investors who managed to get out near the top, and a large despondent pool of ‘everyone else’.


We’ve seen this same compressed bell-curve shape in every major asset bubble in financial history:


Phases of an asset price bubble


And we’re seeing it play out in real-time now in both stocks and cryptos.


The Bursting Crypto Bubble


It’s amazing how fast asset price bubbles can pop.


Just a month ago, the Internet was replete with articles proclaiming the new age of cryptocurrencies. Every day, fresh stories were circulated of individuals and companies making overnight fortunes on their crypto bets, shaking their heads at all the rubes who simply “didn’t get” why It’s different this time.


Here at PeakProsperity.com the demand for educational content on cryptocurrencies from our audience rose to a loud crescendo.


We did our best to provide answers as factually as we could through articles and webinars, though we tried very hard not to be seen as encouraging folks to pile in wantonly. A big reason for this is we’re more experienced than most in identifying what asset bubbles look like.


After all, we *are* the ones who produced Chapter 17 of the The Crash Course: Understanding Asset Bubbles:



To us, the run-up in the cryptocurrencies seen over 2017 had all the classic hallmarks of an asset price bubble — irrespective of the blockchain’s potential to unlock tremendous long-term economic value. Prices had simply risen way too far way too fast. Which is why we issued a cautionary warning in early December that concluded:


So, if you’ve been feeling like the loser who missed the Bitcoin party bus, you’ve likely done yourself a favor by not buying in over the past few weeks. It is highly, highly likely for the reasons mentioned above that a painful downwards price correction is imminent. One that will end in tears for all the recent FOMO-driven panic buyers.


And now that time has shown this warning to have been prescient in both its accuracy and timeliness, we can clearly see that Bitcoin is following the classic price trajectory of the asset price bubble curve. The chart below compares Bitcoin’s current price to that of several of history’s most notorious bubbles:


Chart of Bitcoin vs other historical asset price bubbles


This chart (which is from Feb 2, so it doesn’t capture Bitcoin’s further decline below $7k) shows that Bitcoin is now about 2/3 of its way through the bubble life-cycle, and about half-way through its fall from its apex.


Projecting from the paths of previous bubbles, we shouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin’s price ends up somewhere in the vicinity of $2,500-$3,000 by the time the dust settles.


Did The Stock Market Bubble Just “Pop”?


Despite the extreme drop in the stock market over the past two days, any sort of material bubble retracement has yet to begin — which should give you an appreciation of how overstretched its current valuation is.


Look at this chart of the S&P 500 index. Today’s height dwarfs those of the previous two bubbles the index has experienced this century.


The period from 2017 on sure looks like the acceleration seen during a blow-off top. If indeed so, does the 6% drop we’ve just seen over the past two trading days signify the turning point has now arrived?



Crazily, the carnage we’ve seen in the stock market over the past two days is just barely visible in this chart. If indeed the top is in and we begin retracing the classic bubble curve, the absolute value of the losses that will ensue will be gargantuan.


If the S&P only retraces down to the HIGHS of its previous two bubbles (around 1,500), it would need to fall over 43% from where it just closed today. And history suggests a full retracement would put the index closer to 750-1,000 — at least two-thirds lower than its current valuation.


How Spooked Is The Herd?


As a reminder, bubbles are psychological phenomena. They are created when perception clouds judgment to the point where it concludes “Fundamentals don’t matter”.


And they don’t. At least, not while the mania phase is playing out.


But once the last manic buyer (the “greatest” fool) has joined the party, there’s no one left to dupe. And as the meteoric price increase stops and then reverses, the herd becomes increasingly skittish until a full-blown stampede occurs.


We’ve been watching that stampede happen in the crypto space over the past 4 weeks. We may have just seen it start in the stock markets.


How much farther may prices fall from here? And how quickly?


History gives us a good guide for estimating, as we’ve done above. But the actual trajectory will be determined by how spooked the herd is.


For a market that has known no fear for nearly eight years now, a little panic can quickly escalate to an out-of-control selling frenzy.


Want proof? We saw it late today in the complete collapse in XIV, the inverse-VIX (i.e. short volatility) ETN that has been one of Wall Street’s most crowded trades of late. It lost over 90% of its value at the market close:


Chart of collapse of XIV ETF


The repercussions of this are going to send seismic shockwaves through the markets as a tsunami of margin calls erupts. A cascading wave of sell-orders that pushes the market further into the red at an accelerating pace from here is a real possibility that can not be dismissed at this point.


Those concerned about what may happen next should read our premium report Is This It? issued over the past weekend.


In it, we examine the congregating perfect storm of crash triggers — rising interest rates, a fast-weakening dollar, a sudden return of volatility to the markets after a decade of absence, rising oil prices — and calculate whether the S&P’s sudden 6% rout is the start of a 2008-style market melt-down (or worse).


Make no mistake: these are sick, distorted, deformed and liquidity-addicted bubble markets. They’ve gotten entirely too dependent on continued largess from the central banks.


That is now ending.


After so many years of such extreme market manipulation finally gives way, the coming losses will be staggeringly enormous.


The chief concern of any prudent investor right now should be: How do I avoid being collateral damage in the coming reckoning?


Click here to read ‘Is This It?’, Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

Monday, January 8, 2018

Study Finds That 22 Percent Of Bitcoin Investors Are Using Debt To Fund Their Investments

This report was originally published by Michael Snyder at The Economic Collapse


bitcoin-price2


Investing in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum and Litecoin is extremely risky, and experts all over the country are warning that people should only invest what they are willing to lose. Unfortunately, many are getting swept up in the current euphoria surrounding cryptocurrencies and are not listening to that very sound advice. A disturbing new survey that was just released found that 22 percent of all Bitcoin investors are either directly or indirectly investing in Bitcoin with borrowed money…



According to LendEDU, a personal loan research firm, more than 18 percent of Bitcoin investors have used borrowed money to trade the cryptocurrency. In a global survey of 672 active Bitcoin investors, researchers asked traders the method they used to fund their cryptocurrency trading accounts. The majority of investors used banking systems such as credit cards and ACH transfers to fund their accounts.


But 22 percent of traders revealed that they have not paid off their credit and debit cards after purchasing Bitcoin, effectively investing in the cryptocurrency with borrowed money.



Credit card debt is one of the most toxic forms of debt that you could ever carry, and investing in anything when you still have credit card balances is extremely unwise.


Yes, cryptocurrencies went on an epic run in 2017, but there is absolutely no guarantee that they will continue to rise in 2018.


In fact, there is a very real possibility that we could see a cryptocurrency crash, and there are many investors that are actually eagerly anticipating one…


Well, as many traders expected, it appears that institutions are using the futures product to slowly but surely build a short position in bitcoin. According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report (available CBOE futures), non-commercial traders held a net short position of around $30mn as of Tuesday Dec 26, or around half of the total open interest.


Separately, the Traders in Financial Futures breakdown provided by the CFTC show that the leveraged funds category that consists largely of hedge funds and various money managers had a short of around $14mn, or around a quarter of the total open interest.


In other words, spec investors have used the futures contracts to establish Bitcoin shorts.


On the other hand, there is also the possibility that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin could continue to defy gravity and soar even higher over the next 12 months.


In fact, a rumor that Amazon.com will soon start accepting Bitcoin has lots of people buzzing…



As a backdrop to all of this, there is a strong rumor that Amazon is about to accept Bitcoin as a method of payment. Patrick Byrne, the CEO of Overstock, has stated that Amazon will soon have no choice but to start accepting it. He is quoted as saying, “… they have to follow suit. I’ll be stunned if they don’t because they can’t just cede that part of the market to us if we are the only main large retail site taking Bitcoin.” Scott Mullins, an Amazon executive has confirmed that Amazon is, “working with financial institutions and crypto-experts to spur innovation, and facilitate frictionless experimentation.”


If the Amazon rumor turns out to be true – Bitcoin will probably go into orbit! Be prepared…



If someone knew exactly what would happen throughout 2018, that individual could make an absolutely obscene amount of money.


Unfortunately I don’t know where cryptocurrencies are heading, but it does appear that things are about to get a whole lot more interesting. According to Reuters, it looks like you will soon be able to invest in Bitcoin using leveraged ETFs…


The new idea is to build “leveraged” and “inverse” funds that would rise – or fall – twice as fast as the price of bitcoin on a given day.


Direxion Asset Management LLC plans to list such products on Intercontinental Exchange Inc’s NYSE Arca exchange if U.S. securities regulators give the nod, according to a filing by the exchange this week.


In the filing, the exchange said the listing “will enhance competition among market participants, to the benefit of investors and the marketplace.”


So if Bitcoin rises or falls a thousand dollars in a single day, those financial instruments will be designed to move by about twice as much.


That should be fun.


Meanwhile, some are asking what will happen to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum and Litecoin if the long-awaited collapse of global financial markets finally happens this year.


Well, some believe that it would be doom for cryptocurrencies, but others believe that cryptocurrencies would be like gold and would actually do extremely well during the next great financial crisis…


The question is what will happen to Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies once the financial collapse takes place. The signs are that when economic circumstances start to deteriorate the price of Bitcoin rises. A prime example of this is during the Cyprus and Greece bailout which saw the price of BTC rise considerably during this period. With banks stopping access to cash in ATM machines, Bitcoin was the perfect solution to be able to store it safely out of the banks and Governments’ hands.


What also happens during a depression is interest rates skyrocket and start to see hyperinflation. This will mean it is extremely hard to get finance from banks and the cost can make it unsustainable. The ICO market is a perfect solution to this problem and as the banking sector suffers, ICOs will boom. More companies will look to these as a cheap way to raise money and will create their own cryptocurrency.


It will be fascinating to see how all of this plays out.


There are some financial experts that believe that Bitcoin is going to zero, and there are others that are absolutely convinced that it is going to a million dollars.


As with so many things in life, timing is everything. If you are investing in Bitcoin, let us just hope that you got in at the right time and that you will also get out at the right time.


Michael Snyder is a pro-Trump candidate for Congress in Idaho’s First Congressional District, and you can learn how you can get involved in the campaign on his official website. His new book entitled “Living A Life That Really Matters” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.



GetPreparedNow-MichaelSnyderBarbaraFixMichael T. Snyder is a graduate of the University of Florida law school and he worked as an attorney in the heart of Washington D.C. for a number of years.Today, Michael is best known for his work as the publisher of The Economic Collapse Blog and The American Dream. 


If you want to know what is coming and what you can do to prepare, read his latest book Get Prepared Now!: Why A Great Crisis Is Coming.


Thursday, December 28, 2017

Is This Why The Status Quo Disdains Bitcoin? - The "Wrong People Are Getting Rich"

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,


The wrong people--rebels, outsiders, nerds and techies-- got on the cryptocurrency boat while their insider/rentier "betters" blew it and are now raging bitterly onshore.


The psychology of money, wealth and speculative manias is endlessly fascinating. Most of what"s written on these subjects focus on the process of building wealth as if it were a quasi-science rather than a psychologically driven process. Only speculative manias attract a psychology-based analysis, usually characterized as some variant of the madness of the herd running off the cliff en masse.


But money and wealth are nothing but more sedate reflections of the same dynamics that drive speculative manias. Much has been written about cognitive biases and thinking fast and slow, but these explorations do not exhaust the psychology underpinning money, wealth and speculative manias.


Few things have unleashed the Monster Id of wealth and money quite like bitcoin and the cryptocurrencies. Compare the speculative manias of the dot-com era (1995 - 2000) and the housing bubble (2002 - 2007) with the crypto-mania: in the first two manias, the status quo embraced the mania as rational and justified: the Internet would continue growing for decades, housing never goes down, etc.


But the status quo has not embraced cryptocurrencies with the same ardor--why? Instead of endless justifications for valuations, the status quo is filled with reports that 97% of all economists view bitcoin as a bubble, and endless articles decrying the bitcoin bubble as a fools game that will deservedly burst, and soon.


Why did the status quo embrace irrationally exuberant bubbles in the 1990s and 2000s, but views the exuberance of cryptocurrencies with disdain? I think this is a fruitful topic to explore, largely because nobody seems to be asking this question.


Here are my suppositions:


1. The status quo reviles cryptocurrencies because the wrong people are getting rich.


2. The status quo reviles cryptocurrencies because the usual insiders (Wall Street and its politico leeches) didn"t get on board early, and they"re deeply offended that they missed the boat.


3. Until the advent of bitcoin futures trading, the usual insiders had no means to skim profits from the exuberance.


To me, these dynamics go a long way in explaining the 97% of the status quo"s visible loathing of bitcoin and the cryptocurrencies.


In other words: why embrace some manias but not all manias? Answer: some manias make the usual insiders filthy rich, others don"t. The dot-com mania generated billions of dollars in profits for Wall Street and the rest of the financier-politico leeches (i.e. the rentier class) via IPOs (initial public offerings), insider deals and vast fees generated by trading the mania with other peoples" money.


The housing bubble generated billions of dollars in profits for Wall Street via the issuance of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), CDOs and other exotic financial instruments based on mortgages and related securities, and realtors (and the rest of the housing industry) banked billions in commissions, fees and other skims.


In both cases, Average Joe and Jane reckoned the manias were their ticket to untold wealth. A relative few Average Joes and Janes did strike it rich, usually by being early employees of companies that went public, and a few others managed the impossible, i.e. buying low and selling high and then exiting the casino with their winnings.


But the vast majority of the Average Joes and Janes were fodder for the chipping machines of Wall Street and the FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) insiders and elites. Far more people lost money in the period between 1997 and 2003 than won big and kept their winnings. Millions of people gambled on the housing bubble expanding forever and lost everything.


Now compare that to the cryptocurrency mania: Wall Street and the rest of the financier-politico leeches (the rentier class) have virtually no insider skims in the cryptocurrencies--is it any wonder they hate bitcoin with a passion that correlates to their inability to rake in billions of low-risk fees from the mania?


The psychology of FOMO (fear of missing out) is well known; the indignation of those who didn"t get on board before the ship sailed is less well noted. The financier/rentier class has a very high opinion of its own moxie and intelligence, and the fact that they missed the boat entirely on bitcoin et al. is like a knife of wounded pride plunged directly into their greedy hearts.


Those who can see past their own wounded pride are busy investing in blockchain applications and cryptocurrency funds, while those who cannot let go of their wounded pride are raging daily against the bitcoin bubble, and praying nightly to their evil gods for its collapse, to prove themselves right after all.


Every day that bitcoin doesn"t crash to zero is a day of pain for those whose pride was wounded by missing the cryptocurrency boat.


Even worse--if that"s possible for those whose greed is insatiable--the wrong people have gotten rich--techies, nerds, outsiders, rebels, etc.


It"s as if the crypto-rabble rebels just blew up the Financial Empire"s Death Star and got away with it.



Interestingly, few balk when privileged insiders mint fortunes for doing essentially nothing but exploiting their privileges. The corporate media heaps fatuous praise on insiders who reap billions of dollars from others" labor and ideas via IPOs, leveraged buyouts, etc. because of course these rentiers are our bosses and overlords.


It"s dangerous for a mere peasant in the Corporate-State Feudal System (i.e. the status quo) to speak truth to power against the Financial Aristocracy that issues the paychecks.


You can bet that if a Wall Street insider had bought bitcoin in size for $100 each, said insider would be justifying today"s valuations and arguing for higher valuations ahead, just as he/she did in the dot-com and housing manias.


So it all boils down to this: the wrong people--rebels, outsiders, nerds and techies-- got on the cryptocurrency boat while their insider/rentier "betters" blew it and are now raging bitterly onshore, not just resentful but indignant that this mania didn"t enrich insiders like it should have.


So sorry about your Death Star. I guess this doesn"t bode well for your bonus and promotion in the Imperial hierarchy.


*  *  *


I"m offering my new book Money and Work Unchained at a 10% discount ($8.95 for the Kindle ebook and $18 for the print edition) through December, after which the price goes up to retail ($9.95 and $20). Read the first section for free in PDF format. If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.









Wednesday, December 27, 2017

The #BitcoinBreakdown: Demigod in the Details

First Appearing on HedgeAccordingly.com


Sixth in a series. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5


By @sellputs


Seems like everybody wants to buy in on bitcoin, and if you do, brace for a gut-tossing rollercoaster ride and another drawback, as well:  Trading costs in crypto are astonishingly high. 


Comparison: on TD Ameritrade, you can do a $10 million transaction in stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and it will cost you as little as $6.99; sell $10 million in bitcoin, and the transaction fee could come to $100,000 or more. And stocks are safer!


Opening an account with Coinbase (see Part 3 of this series), is more of a beginner’s way, admittedly, to go to the market to “buy” crypto-coins.  It also is the better option for buy-and-hold fans of bitcoin, though holding anything too long in cryptos may be risky on its face.


Coinbase imposes a fee on every transaction you undertake, charging 1.5% of the total value of the purchase or sale. And if you want to use your credit card to set up an account, Coinbase will charge you a 4% fee for the pleasure.  That’s $400 to hand ’em $10,000.


The GDAX trading platform is the more advanced way to play, ideal for day trading and high-frequency trading if you have the nerve.  It assesses no transaction fees at all as you trade, and it allows more sophisticated techniques that Coinbase doesn’t enable, such as limit orders letting you set stop-losses (sell when the price falls to a particular level) and buy limits letting you trigger a “buy” only when a coin hits the price you specified.


The platform exacts an ample vig, however, once you take cash out of your GDAX account, whether it’s an exponential windfall or the remaining shreds of cash from a bitcoin beating. GDX charges a fee of 25 to 100 basis points, or 0.25% to 1.0% of the total sum you withdraw. In some cases the fees run even higher than that.


Plus, on Coinbase and GDAX the only way to bet on bitcoin et al is to bet their prices will rise—so far, you cannot hedge that gamble by actively betting that bitcoin will actually go down in price, by selling short.  At least, you can’t do that on Coinbase and GDX and their rivals. Now, though, you can short elsewhere, via futures contracts on both CBOE and the CME


One futures contract on the CBOE involves one full bitcoin, while at the CME, one contract covers five bitcoins. Thus, the CME contract has higher leverage than the CBOE contract. The CME contract is based on the average price taken from five exchanges, while the CBOE’s contract is priced off of a single exchange, run by Gemini Trust Co. 


Those differences create gaps and fleeting, short-lived anomalies, and professional traders and their Ph.D. mathematicians will be brainstorming this one, figuring out new algorithms aimed at exploiting those spreads between the two markets.  It is unclear how much bitcoin prices could gyrate around as a result of such computerized trading.


As you read this—most of you didn’t get down this far, and for those of you who did—I’d bet you some holders of real bitcoins are slowly converting a portion of them into dollars and investing the cash in new bitcoin futures on CBOE and the CME.  In some ways that may be the ultimate sign of how bitcoin gradually will get co-opted by Wall Street and superseded by trading in derivatives-of-derivatives based on bitcoin prices.


Hold on to your hats for this ride.


Next: A new way to predict bitcoin’s pricing patterns.









Gold Jumps To Key Technical Level As VIX Collapses

Traders are dumping equity protection and buting chaos protection as VIX tumbles near the year"s lows and Gold jumps back towards its 100-day moving average - and its highest level in a month.



 


Gold is up 9 of the last 10 days, at its highest since early Dec and testing its 100DMA... ($1292)



 


And while Bitcoin has stabilized, the divergence between the alt-currencies is closing...










Europe"s Runaway Train Towards Full Digitization Of Money & Labor

Authored by Peter Koenig via The Saker blog,


The other day I was in a shopping mall looking for an ATM to get some cash. There was no ATM. A week ago, there was still a branch office of a local bank – no more, gone. A Starbucks will replace the space left empty by the bank. I asked around – there will be no more cash automats in this mall – and this pattern is repeated over and over throughout Switzerland and throughout western Europe. Cash machines gradually but ever so faster disappear, not only from shopping malls, also from street corners. Will Switzerland become the first country fully running on digital money?



This new cashless money model is progressively but brutally introduced to the Swiss and Europeans at large – as they are not told what’s really happening behind the scene. If anything, the populace is being told that paying will become much easier. You just swipe your card – and bingo. No more signatures, no more looking for cash machines – your bank account is directly charged for whatever small or large amount you are spending. And naturally and gradually a ‘small fee’ will be introduced by the banks. And you are powerless, as a cash alternative will have been wiped out.


The upwards limit of how much you may charge onto your bank account is mainly set by yourself, as long as it doesn’t exceed the banks tolerance. But the banks’ tolerance is generous. If you exceed your credit, the balance on your account quietly slides into the red and at the end of the month you pay a hefty interest; or interest on unpaid interest – and so on. And that even though interbank interest rates are at a historic low. The Swiss Central Bank’s interest to banks, for example, is even negative; one of the few central banks in the world with negative interest, others include Japan and Denmark.


When I talked recently to the manager of a Geneva bank, he said, it’s getting much worse. ‘We are already closing all bank tellers, and so are most of the other banks’. Which means staff layoffs – which of course makes it only selectively to the news. Bank employees and managers must pass an exam with the Swiss banking commission, for which they have study hundreds of extra hours within a few months to pass a test – usually planned for weekends, so as not to infringe on the banks’ business hours. You got to chances to pass. If you fail you are out, joining the ranks of the unemployed. The trend is similar throughout Europe. The manager didn’t reveal the topic and reason behind the ‘retraining’ – but it became obvious from the ensuing conversation that it had to do with the ‘cashless overtake’ of people by the banks. These are my words, but he, an insider, was as concerned as I, if not more.



Surveillance is everywhere. Now, not only our phone calls and e-mails are spied on, but our bank accounts are too. And what’s worse, with a cashless economy, our accounts are vulnerable to be invaded by the state, by thieves, by the police, by the tax authority, by any kind of authority – and, of course, by the very banks that have had your trust for all your life. Remember the ‘bail-ins’ first tested in early 2013 in Cyprus? – Bail-ins will become common practice for any bank that has abused its greed for profit and would go belly-up, if there wouldn’t be all those deposits from customers. Even shareholders are not safe. This has been quietly decided on some two years ago, both in the US and also by the non-elected white-collar mafia, the European Commission – EC.


The point is, ‘banks über alles’. And which country would be better suited to introduce ‘cashless living’ than Switzerland, the epicenter – along with Wall Street – of international banking. Bank’s will call the shots in the future, on your personal economy and that of the state. They are globalized, following the same principles of deregulation worldwide. They are in collusion with globalized corporations. They will decide whether you eat or become enslaved. They are one of the tree major weapons of the 0.1 % to beat the 99.9% into submission. The other two at the service of the master hegemon’s Full Spectrum Dominance drive, are the war- and security industry and the ever more brazen propaganda lie-machine. Banking deregulation has become another little-propagated rule of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Countries who want to join WTO, must deregulate their banking sector, prying it open for the globalized money-sharks, the Zion-controlled banking conglomerates.


Retrenchment of personnel in the banking employment market is increasing. The news only selectively reports on it, when there are large amounts of jobs being eliminated. Statistics lie everywhere, in the EU as well as in Washington. – Why scare people? They will be scared enough, when they are offered jobs at salaries on which they can barely survive. That’s happening already. It used to be a tactic applied for developing countries: Keep them enslaved by debt and low pay, so they don’t have time and energy to take to the streets to protest – they have to look for food and work, whatever menial jobs they can get, to feed their families. It’s now hitting Europe, the West in general. Some countries way more than Switzerland.


Cashless trials are going on elsewhere, especially in Nordic countries, where selected department stores and supermarkets do no longer take cash. Another monstrous trial has been carried out in India a year ago, in the last quarter of 2016, where from one day to another 80% of the most popular money notes were eliminated, and could only be exchanged for new notes by banks and through bank accounts. And this in an almost pure cash country, where half the population has no bank account, and where remote rural areas have no banks. People were lied to so that the sudden introduction had maximum effect.


It caused massive famine and thousands of people died, as they had suddenly no acceptable cash to buy food – all instigated by the USAID Project ‘Catalyst’, in connivance with the Indian rulers and central bank. It was a trial. It was a disaster. If it works in India with 1.3 billion people, two thirds of whom live in rural areas and most of them have no bank account, the scam could be applied in any developing country – see also India – Crime of the Century – Financial Genocide


What is going on in Switzerland is a trial with the high end of populations. How is the upper crust taking to such radical changes in our daily monetary routine? – So far not many protests have been noticed. There is a weak referendum being launched by a group of people who want the Swiss Central Bank be the only institution that can make money, like in the ‘olden days’. Though a very respectable idea, the referendum has no chance in today’s banking and debt-finance environment, where youth is being indoctrinated with the idea that swiping your card in front of an electronic eye is cool. Today, most money is made by private banks, like elsewhere in Europe and the US. Worldwide banking deregulation, initiated by the Clinton Administration in the 1990s – today a rule for any member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) – has made this all possible.


Digitalization and robotization is just beginning. Staffed check-out counters in supermarkets are dwindling; most of them are automatic – and that happened within the last year. – Where are the employees gone? – I asked an attendant who helped the customers through the self-checkout. ‘They joined the ranks of unemployed’, she said with a sad face, having lost several of her colleagues. ‘It will hit me too, as soon as they don’t need me anymore to show the customers on how to auto-pay.’


Bitcoins


Digitalization also includes the cryptocurrencies, the blockchain moneys floating around – of which the most famous one is Bitcoin. It brings digitalization of money to an apex. The system is complex and seems to lend itself only to ‘experts’. Cryptocurrencies are fiat money, based on nothing, not even on gold. Cryptos are electronic, invisible and highly, but highly speculative, an invitation for gangsters and fraudsters. With extreme speculative values, it looks as if cryptocurrencies were designed for crooks and speculators.


Bitcoin was allegedly invented by Satoshi Nakamoto which could be a pseudonym of a man or a group of people, suspected to live in the US. “Nakamoto’s” identity is believed to be commonwealth origin, due to the vocabulary used in his writings. One of his close associates is purportedly a Swiss coder, who is also an active member of the cryptocurrency community. He is said to have graphed the time stamp of each of Nakamoto’s more than 500 bitcoin forum posts. Such ‘forum posts’ exist in the thousands, worldwide. They form an elaborate network based on algorithms.


Bitcoin was formally created in January 2009 with a fix amount of 21 million ‘coins’, of which more than half are already in circulation, and 1 million, or about 4.75% (of the total) can be traced to Nakamoto – which according to the current market value corresponds to close to US$15 billion. Today’s overall Bitcoin market cap is more than US$ 315 billion. The market is highly volatile. Drastic daily fluctuations are common, especially within the last 12 months. If one of the major Bitcoin holders, like Nakamoto, would capitalize his profit by selling a big portion of his holdings, the Bitcoin price would be in free fall, functioning pretty similar to the regular stock exchange.


On 24 August 2010, when Bitcoin was first traded, its value was US$ 0.06. On 24 December 2017, the coin was worth US$ 13,800, an increase of 230,000%. In the last twelve months, its value increased from about US$ 800 in December 2016 to a peak of close to US$ 20,000 in December 2017, an increase of nearly 2,500 %. However, in the last 7 days, the price has dropped by US$ 5,160, i.e. by more than 27%, and the trend seems to be downward; perhaps a sign of quick profit-taking? However, this shows how instable this cryptocurrency is, apparently much more so than trading corporate shares on the stock market.


The number of cryptocurrencies available over the internet as of 27 November 2017 is above 1300 and growing. A new cryptocurrency can be created at any time and by anyone. By market capitalization, Bitcoin is presently the largest blockchain network (database network, storing data in different publicly verifiable places), followed by Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple and Litecoin.


Bitcoin may be the next bubble, bringing down a parallel economy which has already its fingers clawing into our regular western economy. Cryptocurrencies are officially forbidden in Russia and China, though stopping cryptocurrency dealings by individuals is hardly possible. They do not touch the traditional banking system. That’s why major banks hate them. They circumvent the banking suckers, prevent them from making ever higher profits from horrendous commissions, against which the people at large are powerless.


Here is Bitcoin’s positive value. It escapes bank and state controls. If countries’ economies were run on Bitcoins or another cryptocurrency, they would escape US sanctions which function only because western currencies are foster-children of the US-dollar, hence, subject to the dollar hegemony; meaning all international transactions have to pass through a US bank. A typical case is ‘banking blockades’, when Washington decides to stop all international transactions of a country until it submits to the wishes of the empire. It is blackmail; totally illegal, but unless there is a monetary alternative, the (western) world is subject to this system.


A typical case was Argentina, when she was forced by a New York judge in June 2014 to pay a New York based Vulture Fund US$1.6 billion, an illegal ruling according to a UN resolution. Argentina refuse to pay, so the judge, interfering in a sovereign nation, blocked more than US$ 500 million in Argentina’s debt payment to creditors, bringing Argentina to the brink of a second bankruptcy in 13 years. Eventually, neoliberal Macri negotiated a deal with the Vultures of a payment in excess of US$ 400 million.


This US blackmail would not have been possible had Argentina been able to make its foreign transactions in Bitcoins or another cryptocurrency. Venezuela is currently using a national cryptocurrency for some of its foreign transactions, thereby escaping the sanctions stranglehold of Washington. Had Greek and Cyprus citizens had a cryptocurrency alternative to the euro, they would not have been subject to the cash control imposed by the European Central Bank.


On the other hand, funding of terror organizations, like ISIS, cannot be disrupted, if the terror group deals in cryptocurrencies. – This shows, for good or for bad, Bitcoins, or cryptocurrencies are for now unique in resisiting censure and blackmail, or any kind of authoritarian outside interference in electronic money transactions.


Cashless Living


If Switzerland accepts the change to digital money, a country where until relatively recently most people went to pay their monthly bills in cash to the nearest post office – then we, in the western world, are on a fast track to total enslavement by the financial institutions. It goes, of course, hand-in-hand with the rest of systematic and ever faster advancing oppression and robotization of the 99.9% by the 0.1%.


We are currently at cross-roads, where we still can either decide to follow the discourse of a new electronic monetary era, with ever less to say about the product of our work, our money; or whether, We the People, will resist a banking / finance system that has full control over our financial resources, and which can literally starve us into submission or death, if we don’t behave. In order to resist we need an alternative monetary system or monetary network, away from the dollar-euro hegemony.


All the more important is the ascent of another economy, another payment and transfer scheme which already exists in the East, the Chinese International Paymen, totally System (CIPS), effectively a replacement of SWIFT, totally privately run and linked to the US-dollar and US banks. The world needs a multipolar economy, based on the real output of a country or society, as is the case in China and Russia, not one based on fiat money as is the current western economy.


Will Switzerland, the stronghold of world finance, along with New York, London and Hongkong, resist the temptation of increased profit, power and control, offered by digital money? – We, the People, have still the chance to decide either for continuing rotting in a fraud economy, based on wars and greed – for which digital money, exacerbated by cryptocurrencies, is a new tool for a new maximizing profit bonanza on the back of the common people; or do we opt for an honest future and for a life that leaves us free to take sovereign political and monetary decisions in a full cash society. For the latter we must wake up to see the propaganda fraud going on before our eyes, and to resist the robot and electronic money onslaught being unleashed on us.









A Lambo For Under 10 Bitcoin: You Can Now Buy Supercars For Cryptos

Listening to the CNBC today one would be left with the impression that once having purchased bitcoin, there is nothing one can do with it (except check its price 30 times per minute of course). Which, of course, is dead wrong: one can buy pretty much anything that Overstock (among increasingly more online retailers) has to offer, one can purchase a home not only in the US but also the UK, and as of a week ago, one could pay an Albany car dealer the digital currency and drive off with any vehicle off the lot.


And now, rushing to capitalize on the countless brand new crypto millionaires minted in the past year, is Moonlambos, an online dealership for supercars with offices in Santa Monica and London which dubs itself "the premier destination for exotic supercars that deals exclusively in cryptocurrency."


The innovative dealership catering exclusively to bitcoin buyers, sells Aston Martins, Ferraris, Lamborghinis, Mclarens, Porsches and other coupes and convertibles, with a price rangins from 5 bitcoins for a Mercedes 230 SL Pagoda, to a 9 bitcoin Lamborghini Gallardo. to 20 bitcoin for a Ferrari 488, all the way to a 44 bitcoin Lamborghini Aventador LP 750-4 Superveloce.


What some may find most fascinating, however, is the constantly changing price in bitcoin for any one car - a result of the most volatile underlying asset currently in circulation (with the possible exception of electricity).



However, the real news here is not that there is now an exclusive online outlet aimed at bitcoin millionaires: it is that - as we have mused previously - there are so few of them when one considers that the population of crypto nouveau (ultra) riche has exploded in recent months, and is so very eager to spend its newfound wealth. It is almost as if, due to ideological barriers or other irrational considerations, retailers - who are all hurting in Amazon"s shadow - think they are too good to accept a new currency which millions would be delighted to spend, and would rather file for bankruptcy than accept the likes of bitcoin, ether and ripple.


Oh, and for those who say that cryptos are too volatile for any merchant to accept, here is a word you can ask Alexa to look up: "hedging."









The #BitcoinBreakdown: Before You Buy, More Caveats

Initial bitcoin ramp First Appearing on HedgeAccordingly.com


Fifth in a series.  Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5


By @sellputs


Let us regard the wonders of technology & innovation: Suddenly, we now have multiple easy ways to lose money betting on bitcoin. Giddyup!


With incredible speed, from your laptop or even your smartphone and without even thinking about it, you can open up a new account, inject real U.S. dollars into it, use that to buy a teensy piece of your favorite cryptocurrency, and begin surfing the bitcoin wave. Or begin getting crushed by that wave, depending on your timing, smarts and luck.


This occurs to me on a recent Thursday night, as I visit an old friend in Brooklyn and bring along Big Guy, a college pal who stands 6-feet-4 (“and a half,” he feels it necessary to point out).  The Big Guy and I had been hanging out at the famed Waverly Inn in the West Village in Manhattan, where I had the vodka martini, marked down on special: just $28, down from $30 list.


This next point has nothing to do with bitcoin, okay? I gotta say: Anybody who regularly spends 30 bucks on a martini is a P.T. Barnum-scale sucker.  What a waste of money.  Waste it, instead, on something really irresponsible. . . . like bitcoin.


Anyway, we’re standing around a table in my friend’s apartment in Brooklyn, and Big Guy is taking swigs from a bottle of Blue Point Winter Ale and staring into the screen of his smartphone, as if mesmerized by some new videogame. Instead, he is tracking his own cryptocurrency trades.


“Uh oh, Ethereum is flash-crashing,” he says. He had gotten got into Ethereum (ETH), a newer “altcoin” alternative to bitcoin, a few days earlier at $620, watching it rise to $740 in a day or two and holding on, only to see it crash instantly down to $650 just this moment.  Should he sell?


Guy resists the urge and doubles up on his bet, adding to his ETH holdings (as well as Litecoin, LTC) “to lower my cost basis and scalp the bounce-back from the flash crash,” as he describes it later.  By 3 a.m. that same night, Ethereum had re-inflated to rise back up even higher, to $850. Whew.


Big Guy had put $10,000 into a new account he opened at Coinbase, a digital exchange akin to the New York Stock Exchange (except it is unregulated and carries no particular guarantees, far as I can see).  He had bet his stake all on bitcoin, pulling out after a 53% gain in a week, after commissions.


Guy opened up a second account, this one on GDAX, a 24/7, online platform in the rather unregulated, Wild West of crypto (it is owned by Coinbase). GDAX offers FDIC guarantees up to $250,000 (what happens to your money as a result of your trades is on you). On GDAX, he bet his bitcoin profits on the two lesser lights, ETH and LTC.  He says he can take profits out of Litecoin in only minutes, while transferring money out of bitcoin would take several hours. (LTC is lighter-traded than the binge-fueled bitcoin.)


GDAX charges him 25 basis points (0.25% of the total value of the trade) for “taking markets,” that is, buying coin shares on offer, and no fee at all for “making markets,” or selling on the platform.  Coinbase’s buying fee, at 1.5%, is fives times as much that of GDAX. A few days after he sat out the mini-flash-crash, Guy transfers some LTC from his GDAX account to another coin platform, Binance, where he wants to sell LTC and spread the proceeds among various coins trading below $5 apiece.


And a day or two after that, Big Guy is beaten down: He was up 75% and lost most of it all when he panicked and fled ETH and LTC at the bottom of a later plunge. Too fidgety. Easy come, easy go. He’s back in Ripple, though, and it has been “outperforming.”


Yes, the Big Guy admits, he does worry that in a flash crash or especially high trading volume, he may not be able to minimize his losses and take out cash.  In cryptocurrency trading, the bigger question than whether to sell may be: Can you sell? 


Coinbase limits how much money you can pull out of your account after you sell your crypto and convert the proceeds back to U.S dollars or whichever “real” currency you desire. So, in the event of a crash or some sudden, sharp de-valuation in bitcoins, your ability to act fast and sell your coins might be hampered, and selling your coins could be all but impossible.


Think of it as a football packed with cheering buyers, most of them unaware that there’s only one exit—and it is the size of a doggy door.  Buyer beware.  Puppies, too.


Next up: The high fees for buying bitcoin.









This Cryptocurrency Mining Rig Can Also Heat Your Home

The intensifying energy consumption of the bitcoin network is becoming a concern for environmentalists who have begun to question whether digital currencies should be considered a socially responsible investment. As we pointed out last month, Digiconomist’s Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index stood at 29.05TWh.


That’s the equivalent of 0.13% of total global electricity consumption. While that may not sound like a lot, it means Bitcoin mining is now using more electricity than 159 individual countries, including Ireland and Nigeria.



As the share of the world’s electricity consumed by miners of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rises, miners will likely face pressure – both economic and social – to find efficiencies wherever they can.



In anticipation of this trend, a crypto startup called Comino is marketing a mining rig that also functions as a heater.


Back in October, the Next Web published a report about the company and their new product, the Comino N1. In launching the product – priced at an affordable $5,000 per rig – the company is hoping t make it easier for novices and those who have only a glancing familiarity with crypto technology to start mining coin.



A reporter from The Next Web tested out the miner – and found that it both the heating and mining functions worked well. He even used it to heat his room during the winter.


After running the crypto-heater for a little over a month now, we are finally ready to share our experience with the device...


 


Once we installed the mining rig in our office, which practically included connecting the crypto-heater to the internet via the web-based dashboard system developed by Comino, it automatically created a wallet and began mining Ethereum. As easy as this.


 


Of course, if you already have a wallet, you still have the option to connect it to the dashboard. You can also connect any other mining rig to the Comino dashboard, in case you want to follow all of your mining efforts in one place.


 


Among other things, the online dashboard shows a number of statistics the Comino developers had programmed to monitor, including the current and average hashrate at which the miner is solving cryptographic puzzles, the current and average temperature at which it operates, as well as the unpaid balance of Ethereum you’ve accumulated. It also shows stats for the temperature of each separate GPU.


...


Throughout this one-month trial, the only issue I experienced with the miner was that – for some reason – its ambient temperature sensor inaccurately picked up the temperature of the GPUs inside (which had just taken a break from mining); this prevented the device from booting up again, until it cooled down a little.


...


And in case you were wondering about how reliable the Comino was as a heater : it certainly kept the temperature high enough to save some energy on heating bills, but not enough to make you turn on the air conditioner. Which is exactly what you want from a a machine that was built to bank on crypto.



The Comino N1 maintains an average hashrate of about 200 MH/s, and an average temperature of approximately 60 Celcius – about 140 degrees Farenheight.


Since installing the miner on Nov. 16, TNW reported that it has so far transferred a total of 1.2 ether to the company’s designated wallet. Since Ethereum is currently trading around $700 a coin, the miner would pay for itself in eight months, assuming the value of Ethereum doesn’t crash, or that an influx of new mining capacity decreases the miner’s efficiency.









Tuesday, December 26, 2017

One Bank Is Unsure If Any Humans Still Trade Stocks In Japan, Or Have All Moved To Bitcoin

While the wholesale disappearance of retail traders from stock markets is hardly a novel observation, it has taken on a whole new meaning in Japan, where the lack of carbon-based investors has prompted Deutsche Bank to ask if "Japan"s stocks are still traded at all by humans."


As Deutsche strategist Masao Muraki writes, since the US presidential election, Japanese stocks (in this case the TOPIX index) have been almost entirely defined by just three things: US stocks (S&P 500), the implied volatility (VIX), and USDJPY. This is shown in the model correlation chart below.



And while some observers think that foreigners are buying Japanese stocks on hopes for Abenomics following the Lower House election, this aspect is not apparent in the Figure above according to Deutsche. Instead, according to the German bank, it is the 10Yr US yields  that determine relative performance of Japanese and US financial stocks most directly. Additionally, interest rates, forex, and option prices (implied volatility) are defining absolute share prices for Japanese life insurers and banks, as shown in the charts below.



Furthermore, while financial institutions delivered some surprises in earnings announcements and shareholder returns and major developments took place in bank and insurers capital regulations in 2017 too, Deutsche notes that it "cannot find any indications of active change in allocations to life insurers and banks by investors due to these factors."


These observations prompt Deutsche to ask "a basic question", namely "whether the power of price decisions for Japanese stocks (particularly financial stocks) have shifted from people to algorithms or AI." Some additional thoughts:








Shift to passive fund management has accelerated, partially due to the impact of the Department of Labor’s fiduciary rules, and the trading share of active funds, which follow decisions led by human, is declining. With reduced influence, active funds appear to be focusing on sectors with drastic fundamentals changes (such as technology sector). In fact, more than 70% of inquiries from overseas equity investors to our insurance, securities, and other financial sectors team in December were about SBI, which indirectly owns cryptcurrencies. Reduction of active management costs due to MiFID2 might accelerate this activity.



And since Deutsche is clearly correct that increasingly more, if not the vast majority, of trading decisions and execution has shifted from humans to machines, the outcome is concerning, because as the German bank notes, "if the price formation based on model is prolonged, the gap between price and fundamentals will be wider. Thus, stock price correction may occur periodically."


Yet while Japanese equities may no longer be interesting to local humans, the same can not be said for bitcoin, where as the same DB strategist "discovered" two weeks ago, it was mostly "Mr. Watanabe" trading the world"s most popular cryptocurrency:








An 11 December Nikkei report stated that 40% of cryptocurrency trading in Oct-Nov was yen-denominated. Japanese traders have reportedly come to account for nearly half of cryptocurrency trading since China started to shut down cryptocurrency exchanges, and this is said to be widely known among industry insiders (various estimates exist). This report shows that Japanese men in their 30s and 40s who are engaged in leveraged FX trading (or who used to trade but have stopped) are driving the cryptocurrency market.



This in turn prompted us to wonder, tongue-in-cheek, if Bitcoin wasn"t a secretive ploy by the BOJ - which has had a far more permissive approach to bitcoin cryptocurrencies than its central bank peers - to boost Japanese animal spirits, which had been squashed by three decades of chronic deflation and disenchantment with rigged equities. Today, Deutsche Bank poses a similar question when it asks "Will Bitcoin ignite the “speculative spirit” of Japanese people?"








We will be closely monitoring the risk-taking stance of Japanese retail investors in 2018 in light of the management of ¥900trn of the ¥1,800trn as deposits in overall personal financial assets. Japanese retail investors eagerly purchased certain assets at prices with little support from fundamentals during the bubble period in the 1980s and the IT bubble period around 2000. Symbolic choices were NTT shares that listed in February 1987 for the former and Hikari Tsushin shares that listed in 1999 for the latter (Figure 1).


 


 


 


The emergence of “Bitcoin wealthy” might ignite the “speculative spirit” of Japanese people with strong follower aspirations.



Taken to its extreme, encouraging speculation in bitcoin - and in general any asset that is up over 15x YTD - would be a perfect way to rekindle not only animal spirits, but Japan"s reflationary impetus.  One can see why the BOJ could, if not would, be behind such a "wealth creation" mechanism.


Finally, as Deutsche accurately points out, "of course, speculation at prices with flimsy fundamentals support unleashes strong backlash once asset prices weaken. Overly leveraged trades, in particular, are a concern. Cryptocurrency prices plunged on 22 December, and we think this impacted retail investors using margin trades."


Well, not really, because the December 22 plunge is now long forgotten, and the real question one should ask is whether the Bank of Japan had anything to do with the sharp rebound in bitcoin which plunged as low as $10,500 last week before surging back to $16,000 earlier today...









Bitcoin Bounces Back Again - Beginning Of The End... Or Bump In The Road?

A crypto-Christmas miracle? Bitcoin is now unchanged from the pre-Friday bloodbath, having scrambled higher for the last 24-48 hours as much of the world enjoyed a day off.



 


The entire crypto space is rallying once again today but the question remains, is this another dead cat bounce on the way to "zero" or is Tom Lee, John McAfee, and Mike Novgratz right, this is a bump in the road to $40k and beyond...



 


As The Economic Collapse"s Michael Snyder notes, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and other major cryptocurrencies have been on a wild ride this year, and over the past 10 days the volatility that we have witnessed in the marketplace has been absolutely breathtaking.  On December 17th, Bitcoin shot above $19,800 for a brief moment before it started plummeting dramatically.  At one point the price of Bitcoin dipped below $11,000, which represented close to a 45 percent decline from the record high that it had hit just five days earlier.  And Bitcoin was far from alone – virtually every other major cryptocurrency was also down between 25 and 50 percent during that five day period.  But now almost all of them are bouncing back, and at this moment the price of Bitcoin is $14,219.99.


So where do things go from here?


There are many that believe that in the short-term the price of Bitcoin will fall back toward the actual cost of production.  It has been estimated that the cost to produce a new Bitcoin is currently between three and four thousand dollars, and with the price of Bitcoin so high there is a tremendous incentive for Bitcoin miners to produce as many as possible right now.


But there are others that are convinced that Bitcoin could eventually go to zero…


Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette and his team sent a research note to clients a few days ago suggesting that the real value of bitcoin might be … $0.


 


That’s zero dollars. (Bitcoin stood at around $14,400 at the time of writing.)



To back up his assessment, Faucette made the following arguments…


  • Can Bitcoin be valued like a currency? No. There is no interest rate associated with Bitcoin.

  • Like digital gold? Maybe. Does not have any intrinsic use like gold has in electronics or jewelry. But investors appear to be ascribing some value to it.

  • Is it a payment network? Yes but it is tough to scale and does not charge a transaction fee.

Faucette also pointed out that the number of online retailers that accept Bitcoin is actually falling.  Five of the top 500 e-commerce merchants accepted Bitcoin during the first quarter of 2016, but now only three still do.


In order for Bitcoin to have a sustainable long-term future, it must become a real currency that is widely used, but many would argue that it is already being surpassed by better and newer options.  In fact, one top cryptocurrency expert recent stated that the old Bitcoin network “is as good as unusable”…


Emil Oldenburg, the co-founder of Bitcoin.com – one of the world’s largest sites devoted to the cryptocurrency – recently called the cryptocurrency the “most risky investment you can make,” after he switched to bitcoin cash, which he considers to be the future.


 


"The old bitcoin network is as good as unusable,” said in an interview with Swedish tech site Breakit.



That certainly doesn’t sound promising, but so far that hasn’t stopped the price of Bitcoin from heading into the stratosphere. 


So far in 2017 the price of Bitcoin has risen more than 1,400%, and that number is extremely impressive no matter how you look at it.


Of course virtually all of that “digital wealth” could disappear in just a matter of days during a major crash.  The CEO of Patriarch Equity, Eric Schiffer, believers that Bitcoin investments are eventually heading for “a thermonuclear death”…


“I think bitcoin is a ‘tower of death,’” Schiffer says. “It is going to result in the imminent death of your investment – a thermonuclear death.


 


“Right now we are looking at a financial bubble that is bigger than the tulip craze and I believe that we are headed for a bitcoin crash that will supersede any financial worries of the 21st century,” he added. “People are going to be shocked when they try to liquify their bitcoins.”



Schiffer might be right.


After all, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies don’t have any intrinsic value.  Essentially, they are nothing more than digital creations that only have value because people think they have value.


But those that got in back at the beginning and have cashed out now have made enormous amounts of money, and nobody can deny that.


With every form of “investing”, they are winners and there are losers.  Unfortunately, those that chose to jump in at the height of the madness could end up losing very big.  The following comes from Wolf Richter…


Betting on cryptos is a peculiar form of online gambling on a global scale that requires a consensus among participants that they only buy, and that you cannot ever cash out, and now that some folks are trying to cash out, the bets for everyone else are souring. The same dynamics that pushed prices up have reversed and are causing them to crash.



But what if the naysayers are wrong?


What if this current “Bitcoin crash” is just a bump in the road on the way to $40,000?


Years ago, the price of Bitcoin crashed 75 percent at one point.  What would have happened if the early investors had all bailed out then instead of holding on until now?


Those that sold Bitcoin at $12,000 might end up really kicking themselves if the price of Bitcoin does hit $40,000 by the end of next year, and that is exactly what some top experts are projecting…


Billionaire investors and highly respected analysts including hedge fund investor Mike Novogratz, prominent financial analyst Max Keiser, and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee stated that the price of bitcoin will likely surpass the $40,000 margin by the end of 2018, and achieve a $1 trillion market cap.



And let us not forget that big names such as John McAfee and James Altucher are predicting that the price of Bitcoin will eventually reach one million dollars.


To me, this is absolutely fascinating.  On the one side, you have financial experts that believe that Bitcoin is going to zero, and on the other side you have financial experts that are projecting that someday a single Bitcoin will be worth one million dollars.


I don’t know which side will ultimately prevail, but it will be a lot of fun to watch how everything plays out.


*  *  *


Michael Snyder is a Republican candidate for Congress in Idaho’s First Congressional District, and you can learn how you can get involved in the campaign on his official website. His new book entitled “Living A Life That Really Matters” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.









Monday, December 25, 2017

#BitcoinBreakdown: Five Easy Pieces

First Appearing on HedgeAccordingly


Fourth Part of a series. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3


By @sellputs


Isn’t Christmastime just wonderful, so much time with family, really, just… so… much time. With family.


If you caught the irony in that statement, you, too, need a distraction, an excuse to detach from the conversation and take a little “me” time. So take a few minutes to read this, our fourth column on bitcoin and all that it has unleashed. Your relatives will appreciate that you did.


*   *   *  


Gold, the precious metal found in dental work, beautiful jewelry and Fort Knox, has been a “store of value” for five thousand years.  Invented by nature or God (take your pick), it is able to survive global economic meltdowns and even nuclear meltdowns.  It has been said that if you accumulated, in one place, all the gold mined since humankind started doing it, you’d have enough to fill only three or four Olympic-sized swimming pools. 


An ounce of gold currently trades at $1,280 or so.


Now compare that to bitcoin: extant less than a decade, invented by unknown creators in 2009, said to be in a finite supply of only 21 million coins, and weightless, invisible, untraceable.  It started the year 2017 priced near $1,000 and just bumped up against the $20,000 mark before settling down near $15,000, with millions of people trying to get in on the Bitcoin Bubble.


So, what holds up the price of bitcoin?  Not GDP growth or earnings at any particular company; not the price of gold. The main thing keeping bitcoin prices aloft is little more than speculative frenzy and the virally spreading desire to own a piece of this newfangled invention.  This is emotional, and it is important to force the emotional to bow to the rational.


Here are five easy pieces of advice for investing in bitcoin and its lesser brethren:


  1. Bet only money you are willing to lose. When you buy a stock, usually the chances are almost zero… that the price will fall to zero.  Buying crypto-coins is more like trading in puts and calls on the CBOE, options that have a definite expiration date and which often end up worthless.  So invest only what you are willing to lose at this roulette wheel. 

  2. It is utterly insane to borrow money from elsewhere to invest in bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency, whether the borrowing is from a new low-interest credit card or from a second mortgage on your home. Be smarter than that.

  3. It may be safer to buy bitcoin and skip the imitators. In the long run, anyway. In this realm, the Shakespearean axiom that a rose-is-a-rose-is-a-rose seems untrue to us—there’s bitcoin, and then there’s everyone else.  We would advise betting more on bitcoin.  Other currencies such as Litecoin (LTC) and Ripple (XRP) may rise higher in percentage terms when they do rise, given bitcoin’s extraordinary climb, yet bitcoin’s price may fall less that that of its knockoffs.

  4. Even bitcoin may be only a short-term play. Some “investors” may ponder putting up $20,000 for one bitcoin, locking it away in some Coinbase-like account (“cold storage”) and returning ten years from now to unearth a coin worth $20 million.  One-thousand-fold returns have happened for the earliest bitcoin buyers. Now, however, the Law of Large Numbers makes a thousand-fold rise from these levels much more difficult.  So if you do make a wager, watch it closely and constantly, and be ready to bail.

  5. If you invest, consider the “halfsies” rule. I know, it’s pussy, right?  (As in “pusillanimous,” gutless, timid.)  Yet it is a way to avoid Bitcoin Bubble Bankruptcy!  So if you put up, say, $10,000 in a bitcoin account, and the price doubles from where you started, sell half your stake to recover your original bet, and let the other half ride.  This way your principal will be preserved, yet you retain a stake in the next round of upside.

Remember, my friends, the way to get rich is focused more on preserving and protecting what you have earned than on finding the next windfall.  Good luck.


Next: The new face of bitcoin investors. Gardener, a Burner and a Big Guy.