Martin Armstrong Warns "The Sun Is Cooling Faster Than Anyone Suspected"

Authored by Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com,

The danger from the Global Warming crowd is that they are misleading the entire world and preventing us from what is dangerously unfolding that sparks the rapid decline in civilization – GLOBAL COOLING.

I previously warned that this is not my opinion, but simply our computer. If it were really conscious it would be running to store to buy heating pads. This year will be much colder for Europe than the last three. It will also be cold in the USA. We are in a global cooling period and all the data we have in our computer system warns that the earth is turning cold not warm.

This cooling is very serious. This decline in the energy output of the sun will manifest in a commodity boom in agriculture as shortages send food prices higher. We will see famine begin to rise as crops fail and that will inspire disease and plagues. We will see the first peak in agricultural prices come probably around 2024 after the lows are established on this cycle. We have been warning that this rise would begin AFTER 2017.

Previously, I have reported that NASA confirmed we are going into a cooling period – not warming. They have put out a forecast of declining sunspot activity. Now NASA has come out confirming what our computer has been forecasting. They have reported that as the sun is experiencing a rapid decline in sunspots, it is also dimming in brightness or energy output. NASA’s Spaceweather station has recorded during 2017, 96 days (27%) of observing the sun have been completely absent of sunspots.

I have also previously warned that there is a 300-year cycle to this entire phenomenon. This cycle has aligned with the major turning point of the Economic Confidence Model 2015.75. During 2015, there were ZERO days observed without sunspots. The following year, 2016, came in with 9% of the days recorded without any sunspot activity. This jump to 27% here in 2017 is a substantial jump from 2015 that we cannot afford to ignore.

NASA launched a new sensor which is the International Space Station named TSIS-1. Its mission is to actually measure the dimming of the sun’s irradiance. It will replace the aging SORCE spacecraft and NASA has confirmed our computer forecast that the number of sunspots in this cycle will fall rapidly as it plunges into a date with its 11-year cycle minimum.

There was a sharp climate drop in 1916 creating a spike low in temperature. This 1916 spike low in our climate coincided with war. This was then combined with terrible influenza or flu pandemic of 1918 to 1919, which was the deadliest in modern history. This pandemic infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide or about one-third of the entire planet’s population. It killed an estimated 20 to 50 million victims.

This pandemic began in the spring of 1917 and some sources point to troops in France as being the center of the pandemic. A significant precursor virus, harbored in birds, mutated to pigs that were kept near the front. Others place it with troops in Austria. Nevertheless, influenza ran from mid-1917, became noticeable by January 1918, and continued into December 1920. The unusually deadly influenza pandemic shortened the overall life expectancy by 12 years. This influenza killed the strong rather than the weak since it thrived on the overreaction of the body’s immune system. The strong immune reactions of young adults fed the virus, whereas the weaker immune systems of children and middle-aged adults resulted in fewer deaths, which was very unusual.

Across the entire electromagnetic spectrum, the sun’s output is declining. I personally hate cold. So this is not a forecast I want to see happen. Nevertheless, our computer has correlated this cooling trend with disease and it appears that famine also plays a role in this entire event. Additionally, a simple correlation with the energy output of the sun reveals that all major earthquakes occurred during strong solar minimums, which we are head smack into.

Consequently, there were 7 major earthquakes of 8.0 magnitude moving into the turning point in 2008-2010. Kiril Islands (Russia) twice- 8.1 (November 2006 & January 2007), Peru-8.0 (August 2007), Sumatra-8.5 (September 2007), Sichuan earthquake-8.0 (May 2008), Samoa-8.1 (September 2009), Maule (Chile)-8.8 (February 2010).

There are ways you can prepare. But do prepare. Do not wait until the very last second.

"Look At That Thing!" - The NYT Reveals The Pentagon"s Mysterious UFO Program

When tinfoil-hat-wearing conspiracy theories cross paths with massive "defense" budgets and excited politicians, "stranger things" happen.

Welcome to The Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program.

As The New York Times exposes, within the $600 billion annual Defense Department budgets, the $22 million spent on the program was almost impossible to find.

Which was how the Pentagon wanted it.

For years, the program investigated reports of unidentified flying objects, according to Defense Department officials, interviews with program participants and records obtained by The New York Times. It was run by a military intelligence official, Luis Elizondo, on the fifth floor of the Pentagon’s C Ring, deep within the building’s maze.

The Defense Department has never before acknowledged the existence of the program, which it says it shut down in 2012. But its backers say that, while the Pentagon ended funding for the effort at that time, the program remains in existence. For the past five years, they say, officials with the program have continued to investigate episodes brought to them by service members, while also carrying out their other Defense Department duties.

The shadowy program — parts of it remain classified — began in 2007, and initially it was largely funded at the request of Harry Reid, the Nevada Democrat who was the Senate majority leader at the time and who has long had an interest in space phenomena.

Most of the money went to an aerospace research company run by a billionaire entrepreneur and longtime friend of Mr. Reid’s, Robert Bigelow, who is currently working with NASA to produce expandable craft for humans to use in space.

And while the clapping of crony capitalism screams alod from those two last sentences, one watch of the following video (just one of many), suggests the boondoggle may be based in some kind of reality after all... (the footage from a Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet showing an aircraft surrounded by some kind of glowing aura traveling at high speed and rotating as it moves. The Navy pilots can be heard trying to understand what they are seeing. “There’s a whole fleet of them,” one exclaims. Defense officials declined to release the location and date of the incident.)

Mr. Reid, who retired from Congress this year, said he was proud of the program.

“I’m not embarrassed or ashamed or sorry I got this thing going,” Mr. Reid said in a recent interview in Nevada.

 

“I think it’s one of the good things I did in my congressional service. I’ve done something that no one has done before.”

While not addressing the merits of the program, Sara Seager, an astrophysicist at M.I.T., cautioned that not knowing the origin of an object does not mean that it is from another planet or galaxy.

“When people claim to observe truly unusual phenomena, sometimes it’s worth investigating seriously,” she said.

 

But, she added, “what people sometimes don’t get about science is that we often have phenomena that remain unexplained.”

Read more here...

After Shocking Tillerson Reversal, North Korea Agrees "It Is Important To Avoid War"

Just two weeks after North Korea once again put the world on nuclear war alert by launching its most advanced Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) to date - which experts believe could reach New York or D.C. with a nuclear payload - Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in surprising statements Tuesday indicated that the US would be willing to hold talks with North Korea without any preconditions. 

And it appears the North may have already responded to the overture: according to comments from UN political affairs chief Feltman crossing the Reuters wire on Tuesday evening:

• N.Korea agrees "it is important to avoid war. "


• We have left the door open for negotiations. 


• N.Korea did not offer any type of commitment to talks. 

USG Jeffrey Feltman calls his visit to #NorthKorea the first in-depth political exchange of views between the UN and Pyongyang in almost 8 years. He says the officials he met, including the FM & vice-FM, agreed this ""was only a beginning"" pic.twitter.com/7rtWKo6YrJ

— Melissa Kent (@KentUNCBC) December 13, 2017

In remarks given to the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, Tillerson said, “We’re ready to talk anytime North Korea would like to talk and we’re ready to have the first meeting without preconditions." He stated his belief that it was "unrealistic" for North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program before even coming to the table as they already have "too much invested in it." And it appears the statements are representative of a potential new course for the White House, as Tillerson added that President Trump "is very realistic about that as well."

"We are ready to talk anytime North Korea would like to talk. We are ready to have the first meeting without preconditions," Tillerson said. “Let’s just meet. We can talk about the weather if you want. We can talk about whether it’s going to be a square table or a round table if that’s what you’re excited about.” He added further, “And then we can begin to lay out a road map."

Earlier in the day the secretary of state said the administration was pleased with the "progress" so far in ramping up the "extreme" sanctions and diplomatic pressure on the isolated Communist nation, which has involved heightened UN sanctions and greater pressure from China as well. As evidence of the multi-national nature and effectiveness of the sanctions, Tiller said that over 22 countries have recalled their diplomats from Pyongyang, among them even nations like Mexico and Peru. 

He had also earlier referenced pressure through a regimen of US-South Korea military exercises in the region which the North sees as a threat, saying that, an “important part of our diplomatic success is that we have a strong military presence standing behind us so that if North Korea makes bad choices, we’re prepared.”

The timing of Tillerson"s potential overture is interesting: not only does it come two weeks after a missile launch that experts confirmed could reach much of the North American continent, but at a time when South Korea is feverishly preparing to host the upcoming Winter Olympic games in February 2018. 

Especially worrisome was Pyongyang"s recent November 28th ICBM launch was reported to have flown for 50 minutes on a very high trajectory reaching 4,500 km above the earth (more than ten times higher than the orbit of Nasa’s International Space Station) before coming down nearly 1,000 km from the launch site off the west coast of Japan. The test prompted the US Ambassador to China, Terry Branstad, to reiterate that Kim Jong Un"s provocative actions constitute “the biggest threat to humankind right now.”

Predictably, the US response has been to hold increased military exercises in the region with allies like Japan - as were conducted throughout Tuesday - though other world powers, Russia foremost among them, urged caution and restraint regarding heightened exercises which North Korea sees as saber rattling. However, even South Korea is now requesting that the US dial down its drills, as it worries its northern neighbor could maneuver to stir up trouble preceding or even during the Winter Olympics, set to be hosted in Pyeongchang County from February 9th through Feb 25th, followed by the Paralympic Winter Games. 

The site of the games is a mere 50 miles south of the heavily militarized border, making potential for a major incident as the global spotlight shines on the games an alarming possibility. According to reports, thousands of South Korean military and police personnel are conducting intense security drills preparing for scenarios ranging from bombings, to chemical weapons attacks, to hostage-taking situations. Some 5,000 military personnel are expected to be deployed to the games once they begin as Prime Minuster Lee Nak-yon vowed that the massive security show of force would ensure there are no “security loopholes.”

Meanwhile the South Korean government is reportedly urging the US to hold off on further regional military exercises and shows of force until after the games.

Furthermore, as we reported last night, the security drills come amid new reports that South Korea is asking the U.S. to put off staging two major military exercises until after the end of the Winter Paralympics in March. Those exercises infuriate the Pyongyang regime, which brands them a “rehearsal for war.”  No word yet whether the Pentagon will agree.

This comes amidst talk of what"s being called a "freeze-for-freeze" deal in which the North would agree to halt all missile launches and nuclear tests and in return the US would suspend all military exercises in the area. This is something both Moscow and Beijing are currently pushing hard for, and Tillerson"s remarks before the Atlantic Council today could signal that the White House is seriously considering the plan. 

At the very least, Tillerson"s statements open up a door at an opportune time in which all major powers invested in the region desire to see tensions relaxed, especially the South. His seemingly easygoing remarks, such as “Let’s just meet, we can talk about the weather if you want... so it is really about how do you begin the process of engagement" - appear to have provided just such an opening.

Elon Musk"s First Payload To Mars: His "Midnight Cherry Tesla Roadster Playing Space Oddity"

In late November, we reported on Elon Musk’s desperate attempt to boost market confidence with a shock and awe performance unveiling Tesla’s new semi-truck and roadster. While the event was a thriller, it appears the laws of physics may have finally caught up with Tesla’s stock - now in a bear-market from September highs.

Musk is undeniably the greatest snake oil salesman modern financial markets have ever seen, and that is why he is planning the next spectacular event before a further correction.

On Friday evening, Musk tweeted what the payload of the Falcon Heavy would be— his “midnight cherry Tesla Roadster playing Space Oddity”.

But the story gets better, because the powerful Falcon Heavy rocket will launch his Tesla into the orbit around Mars. Musk added, the Tesla “will be in deep space for a billion years or so if it doesn’t blow up on ascent.”

Payload will be my midnight cherry Tesla Roadster playing Space Oddity. Destination is Mars orbit. Will be in deep space for a billion years or so if it doesn’t blow up on ascent.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 2, 2017

As Musk would say, the show must go on with the Falcon Heavy launch expected “next month” (January 2018) from Pad 39A at Kennedy Space Center in Florida. According to ARS Techinca, “a static fire test of the rocket’s three cores, and 27 engines, on the launch pad this month.”

Falcon Heavy to launch next month from Apollo 11 pad at the Cape. Will have double thrust of next largest rocket. Guaranteed to be exciting, one way or another.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 2, 2017

In simplest terms, the Falcon Heavy is three of the company’s Falcon 9 rockets strapped together. It will then create enough lift as proposed by Musk to propel his Tesla out of low Earth orbit onto a trajectory to Mars. When it comes to timing— don’t take the company seriously. Musk has pushed back Falcon Heavy’s maiden flight more than once: it was originally planned for a summer launch but moved to November and now to January 2018.

Musk said, at a press conference in July, that the Falcon Heavy might not even make it to orbit on its first attempt to leave the atmosphere. That means the upcoming event could turn into a very expensive firework showing.

While the practical use for a Tesla roadster on Mars is still unknown, it would buy Musk some time to keep the stock elevated for perhaps a few more secondly offerings. If Musk is successful in this latest endeavor, it would signal that NASA’s ambitions to Mars could be fulfilled by a Falcon Heavy. So far, no private company has launched a rocket beyond low-Earth orbit, nevertheless to another plant.

Phil Larson, an assistant dean at the University of Colorado, and a former SpaceX official said, “the launch of the biggest rocket since the U.S. Moon booster is a game changer for our country’s space exploration future and for national security. The fact that development of such a capability is coming from U.S. industry is a very positive sign for our economic competitiveness.”

As we have highlighted before, the short thesis for Tesla (see: Jim Chanos Adds To Tesla Short, Sees Musk Stepping Down) explains the financial circumstances of why Musk is attempting to conduct the great show ever known to man through SpaceX, as it means the cross promotion would keep his scheme alive. In the mean time, the short theses build:

1. Negative Cash Flows

“If you can’t make money selling a $100,000 car to rich people, how are you going to make money selling a $45,000 car to normal people?” Rocker told The Times. He was referring to the upcoming mass-market Model 3. “I’m saying they’re going to lose money on every Model 3 they build and sell,” Spiegel said. Based on Tesla’s Q4 2016 earnings report, he figured the combined average selling price for non-leased Model S and X is about $104,000 and the combined average cost of building them about $82,000.

 

2. Competition from the Big Guys

Electric vehicles are still only a tiny fraction of total new vehicle sales in the US. Tesla sold about half of them. In March, according to Autodata, Tesla sold 4,050 vehicles in the US, similar to Porsche. All automakers combined sold 1.56 million new vehicles. This gave Tesla a market share of 0.26%. “Tesla faces a formidable set of competitors, and they’re coming in with guns blazing,” Wahlman told The Times. “Once the market is flooded with electric vehicles from manufacturers who can cross-subsidize them with profits from their conventional cars, somewhere around 2020 or 2021, Tesla will be driven into bankruptcy,” Spiegel said.

 

3. Tesla’s vanishing tax credits

The federal tax credit of $7,500 that EV buyers currently get is limited to 200,000 vehicles for each automaker. Once that automaker hits that point, tax credits are reduced and then phased out. Of all automakers, Tesla is closest to the 200,000 mark. Under its current production goals, the tax credits for its cars could start declining in 2018. This would give competitors, whose customers still get the full tax credit, a major advantage. About 370,000 folks put down a refundable $1,000 deposit on Tesla’s Model 3, perhaps figuring they’d get the $7,500 tax credit. But as it stands, many won’t. Rocker thinks that this is going to be an issue. The refundable deposit “commits them to nothing,” he said. Those that don’t get the tax credit may just ask for their money back and buy an EV that is still eligible for the credit.

 

4. The Question of patent protection

Tesla has made its patents available to all comers, thus lowering its patent protections against competitors. Also, the key part of an EV, the battery, is produced by suppliers; they, and not Tesla, own the intellectual property. This is true for all automakers. But Tesla might still be closely guarding crucial trade secrets that are not patented.

 

5. Musk’s distractions from his day job

Musk has a lot of irons in the fire: Tesla, SpaceX (with which he wants to build a colony on Mars or something), solar-panel installer SolarCity which Tesla bailed out last year; projects ranging from artificial intelligence to tunnel digging; venture capital activities…. “He’s all over the map, from tunneling to flights to Mars to solar roof tiles,” Rocker said. These announcements have the effect of boosting Tesla’s stock: “It’s ‘Let’s get the acolytes excited. Implant in the brain! Let’s buy Tesla stock!’”

 

6. Execution risk

“Investing is all about possibility and probability,” Yusko said. “Is it possible that Tesla will produce 500,000 cars in the next two or three years? Yes. Is it probable? No.” Tesla has missed many deadlines and goals, and quality problems cropped up in early production models. As Tesla is trying to make the transition to a mass-market automaker, execution risk will grow since mass-market customers are less forgiving.

 

7. Investor fatigue

Having lost money in every one of its 10 years of existence, Tesla asks investors regularly for more money to fill the new holes. In March, it got $1.2 billion. In May last year, it got $1.5 billion. Tesla will need many more billions to scale up production and to digest the losses. Tesla has been ingenious in this department. But when will investors get tired of it? “We’re awfully close to the point where people wake up and realize these guys are seriously diluting our equity” with new stock and convertible bond issues, Yusko said. According to The Times, Yusko “is looking for the moment when the true believers begin to lose faith.”

 

*Update

8. Emerging solid-state battery technology

Musk has invested a lot into his Gigafactory and technology producing lithium-ion batteries. The EV game is all about the best battery technology and a new threat has emerged using solid-state technology. If Tesla does not adopt to these new battery trends consumers would likely gravitate to EVs who posses such technology, because of the longer distance and shorter charge time.

 

Crew Of Missing Argentine Submarine Makes Contact Attempt

Argentinians breathed a collective sigh of relief Saturday night after authorities revealed that the crew of a missing submarine had attempted to make contact for the first time since communication with the sub suddenly ceased on Wednesday. Defense Minister Oscar Aguad said over Twitter on Saturday night that the submarine, which was carrying a crew of 44 sailors, had sent seven “communication attempts” earlier in the day. He did not provide further details.

“We received seven signals from satellite calls that would come from the submarine San Juan. We are working hard to locate him and we convey hope to the families of the 44 crew members: that they may soon have them in their homes.”

Recibimos siete señales de llamadas satelitales que provendrían del submarino San Juan. Estamos trabajando arduamente para localizarlo y transmitimos la esperanza a
las familias de los 44 tripulantes: que en breve puedan tenerlos en sus hogares.

— Oscar Aguad (@OscarAguadCBA) November 19, 2017

The vessel disappeared from radar last week, forcing the Argentine navy to hastily organize a search and recovery effort. The last registered position of the vessel was on November 15 at 07:30 in latitude 46 ° 44 ‘south and longitude 59 ° 54 West, at the height of Puerto Madryn and off the coast of Patagonia. Since then, the vessel has not reappeared on radar, or been spotted by the search party, according to the Associated Press.

The whereabouts of the vessel, the subject of an intensive search involving eight nations including the US, remains a mystery. Officials don’t even know whether it’s at the surface or underwater.

The submarine ARA San Juan left Argentina Monday to participate in naval exercises off southern Argentina before departing Monday from the city of Ushuaia for a naval base in Mar de Plata. The last contact was made after the northbound vessel passed the Valdes Peninsula about 270 miles off Argentina’s coast.

NASA joined the search effort on Saturday with a P-3 Orion propeller-driven patrol airplane, equipped with magnetometers, infrared cameras and other sensors that can detect a submerged submarine. The aircraft, which can also measure ice thickness, is temporarily based in Ushuaia to take part in a NASA survey of Antarctica.

Argentine naval officials said they received no distress signals from the vessel, a German-built TR-1700 model, before losing contact. Vessels from Chile, Brazil, Peru, Uruguay, South Africa and the United Kingdom are also assisting in the search.

Pope Francis, a native of Argentina, said in a statement issued by the Vatican earlier Saturday that he was praying for the safe return of the submarine and its crew, and for “spiritual serenity and Christian hope” for Argentina. He said he felt especially close to family members “in these difficult moments."

Anguished family members of the crew have gathered at the Mar de Plata base awaiting news.

“It’s agonizing the passing of the hours, a mixture of horrible feelings and silence,” said Marcela Moyano, wife of submarine machinist Hernan Rodriguez, in an interview at the base with TodoNoticias TV channel before Aguad’s announcement. “It’s a situation of desperation and fear. But we’re still hopeful they are returning,” according to the Associated Press.

Of the missing sub’s 44 crew members, one is a woman: Lt. Eliana Maria Krawczyk, 34, the sub’s operations chief. Her father, Eduardo, said in a TV interview Thursday that he last talked to his daughter two weeks ago.

Recién me desayuno con esto ¿alguien sabe algo? INMENSO OPERATIVO PARA DAR CON LOS 37 TRIPULANTES DEL SUBMARINO ARA SAN JUAN DESAPARECIDO ESTA NOCHE pic.twitter.com/JPfq6geVf7

— ALICIA (@AliciaVery) November 17, 2017

“She told me that after arriving at Tierra del Fuego, that the (female) governor of the state came aboard the submarine and congratulated her because a woman was on the crew,” Eduardo Krawczyk said. He added that he is praying for his daughter’s safe return and that seeing her again will be like “being born again."

Psychologists and a Roman Catholic bishop have arrived at the naval base to counsel family members. Navy spokesman Enrique Balbi said the fleet was “not discarding any hypothesis” on what might have happened to the sub.  “We are going to suppose the submarine had problems of communications, that there might have been a blackout, or power failure, and that it is now adrift,” Balbi said. “From (projected) movement after going adrift, we can estimate the search area."

The diesel-powered sub is one of three submarines in Argentina’s fleet. Measuring 220 feet long, the sub has a range of 13,000 miles. It underwent a major overhaul and reconditioning in 2008 that officials here say qualified it for 30 years more of use.

? Versión oficial de la Armada: "Aún no se ha encontrado el submarino ARA San Juan" https://t.co/ERZafwu4gA pic.twitter.com/mQPANJOFKg

— MDZ online (@mdzonline) November 17, 2017

But weather in the search area has turned rough, with strong winds and waves as high as 20 feet, complicating the rescue operation, Balbi said.

“Remember that the part of the submarine that is above surface is very small, just a third of its length. The color of the vessel doesn’t help either because it mimics that of the ocean,” Balbi told reporters.

Argentine President Mauricio Macri tweeted Friday that the government is doing everything it can to find the sub: “We are in contact with the families of the crew of the submarine ARA San Juan who is missing to inform and support them. We share your concern and that of all Argentines."

Estamos en contacto con las familias de la tripulación del submarino ARA San Juan que se encuentra extraviado para informarlos y apoyarlos. Compartimos su preocupación y la de todos los argentinos.

— Mauricio Macri (@mauriciomacri) November 18, 2017

Four Argentine ships, various helicopters and 500 marines are participating in the search.

Threat Of Devastating 'Supervolcano' Eruption At Yellowstone Is Greater Than Previously Thought

Scientists from the US Geological Survey who breezily informed the public that there’s “nothing to worry about” with regards to the Yellowstone caldera, a supervolcano that should it erupt could cause potentially hundreds of thousands of deaths, should be eating their words.

Since about mid-July, the earth beneath the volcano has been shifting in a sign that magma could be rushing into the caldera’s main chamber. Since then, there have been roughly 2,500 small-scale earthquakes recorded near the volcano, the largest stretch on record. Previous estimates had assumed that the process that led to the eruption took millenniums to occur.

The same estimates that USGS based their warning on.

As the New York Times explains, the Yellowstone caldera is a behemoth far more powerful than your average volcano. It has the ability to expel more than 1,000 cubic kilometers of rock and ash at once, 2,500 times more material than erupted from Mount St. Helens in 1980, which killed 57 people. That could blanket most of the United States in a thick layer of ash and even plunge the Earth into a volcanic winter.

As the Times points out, scientists expect a supervolcano eruption to scar the planet once every 100,000 years.

To reach their conclusion, the team of scientists spent weeks at Yellowstone’s Lava Creek Tuff – a fossilized ash deposit from the volcano’s last supereruption, where they gathered samples and analyzed the volcanic leftovers. The analysis allowed the scientists to pin down changes in the lava flow before the last eruption. The crystalline structures of the rocks recorded changes in temperature, pressure and water content beneath the volcano just like tree rings do.

“We expected that there might be processes happening over thousands of years preceding the eruption,” said Christy Till, a geologist at Arizona State, and Ms. Shamloo’s dissertation adviser. Instead, the outer rims of the crystals revealed a clear uptick in temperature and a change in composition that occurred on a rapid time scale. That could mean the super eruption transpired only decades after an injection of fresh magma beneath the volcano.”

Thanks to this research, scientists are beginning to realize that the conditions that would lead to a supervolcano eruption could emerge during a human lifetime. As the research continues, scientists hope they will be able to spot more signs of a coming eruption.

“It’s one thing to think about this slow gradual buildup – it’s another thing to think about how you mobile 1000 cubic kilometers of magma in a decade,” she said.

While scientists at the USGS have brushed off the threat of a supervolcano eruption, scientists at NASA have at least acknowledged the threat to the US population. The agency has devised a potential strategy to try and defuse an eruption should one appear imminent, though according to several the techniques involved – specifically, pumping water directly into the volcano’s magma chamber – involve significant risks.

But who knows? If the research is accurate, an eruption could emerge as a serious threat to the US – and possibly the global population – population as the fallout kills crops and livestock, causing widespread famine, while clouds of choking ash and debris spread for hundreds, if not thousands, of miles.

Ominous Earthquake Swarm At Yellowstone Supervolcano Now One Of Longest Ever Recorded

The rumblings beneath the formerly dormant supervolcano known as the Yellowstone caldera just won"t quit. And The ongoing earthquake swarm at the Yellowstone National Park supervolcano is now one of the longest ever recorded, having started on June 12. The ongoing earthquake swarm at the Yellowstone National Park supervolcano is now one of the longest ever recorded, having started on June 12.

Over the past three and a half months, almost 2,500 earthquakes have been recorded in the western part of the national park. This is on par with the biggest swarm ever recorded, where more than 3,000 earthquakes took place over three months, Newsweek reports.

In its latest monthly update about activity at Yellowstone, the US Geological Survey said 115 earthquakes had been reported in the park during September. Of these, 78 were part of the ongoing swarm 6 miles north of West Yellowstone. The biggest event in the swarm last month was magnitude 2.3.

“This is the sort of work that will happen in the months to come, as we gather up all of the available data and start crunching numbers,” Poland says. “What we can say now is that through the of September, the University of Utah has located 2,475 earthquakes in the swarm. This puts the 2017 swarm on par with that of 1985, which lasted three months and had over 3,000 located events.  end

“[This is] certainly a fascinating event and one that we hope to learn more about through some post-swarm analysis,” he adds. “There"s a lot to work on this winter, for sure.”

While scientists at the USGS have brushed off the threat of a supervolcano eruption, scientists at NASA have said it represents a potentially devastating threat to the US population. These same scientists have suggested several risky strategies to prevent an eruption if one appears imminent.

Brian Wilcox, a former member of the NASA Advisory Council on Planetary Defense, and several other NASA researchers over the summer shared a report previously unseen outside the space agency about the threat Yellowstone poses, and what can be done to prevent an eruption.

According to NASA, an eruption at Yellowstone could plunge the earth into a volcanic winter and destroy crops and livestock, precipitating widespread famines.  Food reserves would only last about 74 days, according to the UN, after an eruption of a super volcano, like that under Yellowstone.

With an eruption long overdue, NASA has devised a plan to drill into the caldera and try to artificially cool it – a strategy that researchers say comes with its own risks.

Scientists at the USGS say the monthslong earthquake storm at the caldera has ended; however, they played down the risks posed by the swarm shortly after it started over the summer, only for the rumbling to continue. Others maintain that an eruption is long overdue.

Russian-US Contacts Continue Against All The Odds

Authored by Peter Korzun via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

"We stand for constructive, predictable and mutually beneficial cooperation," said Russian President Vladimir Putin at a ceremony in the Kremlin when Jon Huntsman, the new US ambassador to Russia, presented his diplomatic credentials. "The current level of the ties cannot satisfy us," he added.

The ambassador said in a statement released after the ceremony that he "looks forward to working to rebuild trust between our two countries and to strengthening the bilateral relationship based on cooperation on common."

Huntsman takes office at the time the bilateral relations are on a downward spiral of sanctions and accusations, reaching the lowest ebb since the nadir of the Cold War. The “diplomatic war” is raging, arms control is in doldrums with the future of two remaining major treaties in question. Europe is turning into a hotbed. The fate of the INF Treaty is unknown as the parties exchange accusations of non-compliance. A dispute over the Treaty on Open Skies may lead Washington to announce new restrictions on Russian military flights over US territory in the coming days.

The two powers view the world differently and the gap appears to be too wide to bridge. But a closer look at the recent events gives a glimmer of hope for the complex Russia-US relationship.

It was reported in late September that US officials were seeking ways to improve communication with Moscow and build “some degree of trust.” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Russian Izvestia newspaper that his regular meetings with Under Secretary for Political Affairs Thomas A. Shannon were of great importance and will continue despite of the fact that no tangible progress has been achieved so far. He said there were some certain results. The deputy minister did not elaborate.

It has been reported recently that Russian and US generals held a meeting in September to discuss the situation in Syria. It was the first contact of its kind. Col. Ryan Dillon, the Pentagon’s spokesman, said there would be more such meeting in future. Last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met twice at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly to talk privately. The situation in the Middle East, and Syria in particular, topped the agenda. US officials are now considering the prospects of reviving military-to-military contacts.

There has been a lot of speculation that Russia might not comply with the New START limits by the February 2018 deadline. On October 2, a US State Department report was published to say that Russia is in compliance with the provisions of the treaty. Last month, Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry"s Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control Mikhail Ulyanov said Moscow intends to discuss with the US the possibility of the New START Treaty’s prolongation.

In February, President Trump decried the New START as an agreement favoring Moscow. Now he appears to change his position on the issue. The remarks by the Trump administration officials suggest the treaty will remain in force and the door remains open to pursuing an extension of the accord, which is set to expire in 2021.

Space exploration is one of the few areas where international cooperation between Russia and the US has not been affected by the deterioration of the bilateral ties. On September 27, Russian Roscosmos signed a joint statement with NASA at the 68th International Astronautical Congress in Adelaide, Australia, to collaborate on a future spaceport orbiting the moon called Deep Space Gateway. Igor Komarov, the head of Roscosmos, said the first modules would be built between 2024 and 2026. The facility would serve as a gateway to both deep space and the lunar surface and would be developed, serviced and used in collaboration with commercial and international partners. 

Russia and the United States also discussed using Moscow"s Proton-M and Angara rockets as well as other spacecraft to help create the infrastructure of the lunar spaceport. The main works were slated to begin in the mid-2020s. Russia and the US work side by side on the International Space Station.

The recent flurry of international activity involving Libya makes it expedient for the two powers to explore the ways to cooperate on this problem and bring other Libyan forces to the negotiating table.

Moscow and Washington could discuss the ways to address this acute international issue at the UN Security Council.

The contacts are maintained against all the odds. The sides continue cooperate in some areas. The relationship has nosedived but it’s not all doom and gloom. There is still a chance for better times.

United States And Russia To Build NASA-Led Space Station

Content originally published at iBankCoin.com

The liberal science community has a moral dilemma on its hands following today’s announcement that the United States is partnering with Russia on a NASA-led project to build an orbiting lunar station.

On one hand, the international base for lunar exploration will serve as a “gateway to deep space and the lunar surface,” according to NASA.

On the other hand, Russia is involved – which means they’ll undoubtedly slit our throats in space, populate the surface of the moon, build a moon cannon – having read Heinlein, and fire silicon, magnesium, and aluminum-rich moon rocks at the United States. Once we are obliterated, Russia will invade the country and enslave all surviving Americans in moon-rock crushing factories.

Pretending not to be evil, Igor Komarov - Roscosmos’s general director, stated that Russia, the United States and other participants agreed it was important to work using unified standards to avoid future problems in space, citing Sandra Bullock’s movie “Gravity” in the process.

“Roscosmos and NASA have already agreed on standards for a docking unit of the future station,” the Russian space agency said.

AFP reports:

“Taking into account the country’s extensive experience in developing docking units, the station’s future elements — as well as standards for life-support systems — will be created using Russian designs.”

NASA said it planned to expand human presence into the solar system using its new deep space exploration transportation systems, the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft.

– ‘Better to fly together’ –

Russia and the United States also discussed using Moscow’s Proton-M and Angara rockets as well as other spacecraft to help create the infrastructure of the lunar spaceport, the Russian statement said, adding that the main works were slated to begin in the mid-2020s.

“The station will be a serious platform for future research,” said Komarov - concealing his seething Red ambition, though boasting “That is a rather significant contribution.”

Igor Lisov, editor at Space News, told AFP of Russia’s potential contribution: “We are offering carriers for flights to a lunar orbiting station, we are offering our docking units or their components,” he said, adding Russia had vast experience in creating life-support systems.

Unfortunately, this will be our doom…

Follow on Twitter @ZeroPointNow § Subscribe to our YouTube channel

Scientists Say Italian Supervolcano Is "Becoming More Dangerous" As Magma Builds Beneath It

After the long-dormant supervolcano Campi Flegrei awakened late last year, a team of scientists that has pinpointed the now-active volcano"s magma source says a potentially devastating eruption could be just around the corner.

Campi Flegrei is a volcanic caldera to the west of Naples that last erupted in the sixteenth century. It has been mostly quiet since then, with the exception of a few small tremors in the 1980s. Seismographic data from those rumbles allowed scientists to pinpoint the source of the magma that flooded into Campi Flegrei"s chamber and caldera, according to United Press International. The results are unequivocal: An analysis of the supervolcano"s hot zone suggests Campi Flegrei could be nearing an eruption.

"What this means in terms of the scale of any future eruption we cannot say, but there is no doubt that the volcano is becoming more dangerous," De Siena said.

"The big question we have to answer now is if it is a big layer of magma that is rising to the surface, or something less worrying which could find its way to the surface out at sea."

Researchers liken the volcano"s hot zone to a boiling pot of soup. Over the last several years, the volcano has gotten considerably hotter.

The Campi Flegrei "hot zone"

Four years ago, scientists warned any eruption could kill millions living near or on top of the volcano.

"These areas can give rise to the only eruptions that can have global catastrophic effects comparable to major meteorite impacts," said Giuseppe De Natale, head of a project to monitor the volcano"s activity.

Now, based on an assessment of the current flows, scientists are worried that a potentially deadly eruption could happen close to a population center like the city of Naples.

"During the last 30 years the behaviour of the volcano has changed, with everything becoming hotter due to fluids permeating the entire caldera," Dr De Siena explained.

"Whatever produced the activity under Pozzuoli in the 1980s has migrated somewhere else, so the danger doesn"t just lie in the same spot, it could now be much nearer to Naples which is more densely populated.

"This means that the risk from the caldera is no longer just in the centre, but has migrated. Indeed, you can now characterise Campi Flegrei as being like a boiling pot of soup beneath the surface.

"What this means in terms of the scale of any future eruption we cannot say, but there is no doubt that the volcano is becoming more dangerous.

The study, which Phys.org reports provides a benchmark that could help determine the timing of future eruptions, was led by Dr. Luca De Siena at the University of Aberdeen in conjunction with the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano, the RISSC lab of the University of Naples, and the University of Texas at Austin.

Still, scientists have some questions.

"One question that has puzzled scientists is where magma is located beneath the caldera, and our study provides the first evidence of a hot zone under the city of Pozzuoli that extends into the sea at a depth of 4 km," Dr De Siena said.

"While this is the most probable location of a small batch of magma, it could also be the heated fluid-filled top of a wider magma chamber, located even deeper."

Dr De Siena"s study suggests that magma was prevented from rising to the surface in the 1980s by the presence of a one-to-two-kilometer-deep rock formation that blocked its path, forcing it to release energy along a different route. While the implications of this are still not fully understood, the relatively low amount of seismic activity in the area since the 1980s suggests that pressure is building within the caldera, raising the risk of an eruption.

Just days ago, scientists warned that Mount Paektu, a long dormant supervolcano in North Korea, could be roused to a potentially humanity-threatening eruption if the isolated nation continues to conduct nuclear tests at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site.

Meanwhile, US government officials are monitoring a similar situation unfolding at the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, another “supervolcano.” An eruption at Yellowstone could plunge the Earth into a volcanic winter, according to scientists at NASA, who’ve devised an incredibly risky plan to save the US from the volcano.

Of course, some scientists say NASA’s plan risks triggering the eruption it"s trying to prevent.

NASA believes the most viable solution could be to drill up to 10km down into the super volcano and pump down water at high pressure. The circulating water would return at a temperature of around 350C (662F), thus slowly day by day extracting heat from the volcano. And while such a project would come at an estimated cost of around $3.46 billion, it comes with an enticing catch which could convince politicians (taxpayers) to make the investment.

Of course, drilling into a supervolcano comes with its own risks, like the eruption that scientists are desperate to prevent.
 

NASA: "Sun Erupts With Significant Flare"

Around 12:06 p.m EDT on Sept 10, 2017, NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured an image of the sun unleashing a massive solar flare from a recently active region. Solar flares are powerful bursts of radiation. Harmful radiation from a flare cannot pass through Earth"s atmosphere to physically affect humans on the ground, however — when intense enough — they can disturb the atmosphere in the layer where GPS and communications signals travel.  Per NASA,

This flare is classified as an X8.2-class flare. X-class denotes the most intense flares, while the number provides more information about its strength. An X2 is twice as intense as an X1, an X3 is three times as intense, etc.  

The X9.3 flare was the largest flare so far in the current solar cycle, the approximately 11-year-cycle during which the sun’s activity waxes and wanes. The current solar cycle began in December 2008, and is now decreasing in intensity and heading toward solar minimum. This is a phase when such eruptions on the sun are increasingly rare, but history has shown that they can nonetheless be intense.

This flare is the capstone on a series of flares from Active Region 2673, which was identified on Aug. 29 and is currently rotating off the front of the sun as part of our star’s normal rotation.

The flare was captured in the following NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center video.

NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured this image of the solar flare:

The flare as seen in the bright flash on the right side on Sept. 10, 2017.

More details:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration signals X8.2 (R3-STRONG) X-RAY EVENT OBSERVED AT 10/1606 UTC. Primary areas impact includes ‘large portions of sunlit side of earth’. Possible effects include wide spread HF radio blackouts and navigation degradation through GPS (loss in signal).

As SWL.com notes, "yesterday"s X8.2 (R3-strong) solar flare from sunspot region 2673 was one of the most spectacular solar flares we have ever seen. Not only was this the second strongest solar flare of the current solar cycle, it also launched an extremely fast and broad coronal mass ejection:

Following the flare, we quickly reached the strong S3 solar radiation storm level which only takes place about 10 times during a 11 year solar cycle. Possible effects of the ongoing S3 solar radiation storm are: degraded HF radio propagation at polar regions and navigation position errors, satellite effects on imaging systems and solar panel currents, significant radiation hazard to astronauts on extra-vehicular activity (EVA) and high-latitude aircraft passengers.

The coronal mass ejection is as far as we can remember one of the fastest coronal mass ejections of the current solar cycle as we measured the ejecta at a whopping 2,700km/s to 2,800km/s! To compare: The X28 coronal mass ejection from 4 November 2003 left the Sun at 2,400km/s! Goes to show this is an extreme coronal mass ejection that would without a doubt cause intense geomagnetic storming if it would have been launched directly at Earth.

SOHO/LASCO imagery shows an impressive asymmetrical full halo coronal mass ejection which means the outer edges of the solar plasma cloud are directed straight at (or away) from the observing space craft. It is therefor hard to say if this edge is directed towards the front side, the far side or both but taking into account the monstrous coronal wave and the jump in the low-energy EPAM protons, we are fairly confident that we are going to see at least a shock passage or a glancing blow at Earth. You can see the coronal wave in the tweet that we posted yesterday.

The X8.2 solar flare is highly eruptive with a fast and broad coronal wave. Wow! pic.twitter.com/ZYhVrAu9D7

— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) September 10, 2017

As SWL adds, while the flanks of a coronal mass ejection are always a bit slower than the bulk, the transit time should still be around one and a half day or about 36 to 40 hours (calculated with SARM) which puts the expected impact time of this coronal mass ejection at 06:00 UTC on 12 September 2017 with a plus/minus of 6 hours. The NOAA SWPC has a much later impact time, late on September 13.

Subsequent coronagraph imagery analysis has been concluded. The full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was so powerful and widespread, there actually appears to be an Earth directed component, most evident when viewing the LASCO C3 (blue color) video. If so, an impact to the earth"s geomagnetic field may be possible as soon as tomorrow.

According to the latest tracking models, the edge of the large CME may deliver a glancing blow to our geomagnetic field by Sept. 13th. This combined with an anticipated coronal hole stream may help to enhance activity. A Moderate (G2) storm watch will be in effect.

Huge Solar Flare Sparks Widespread Blackouts, May Deter Korean Missile Launch This Weekend

The sun just released a massive solar flare.

In fact, as SHTFplan.com"s Mac Slavo details, this is the largest solar flare emitted in the past decade, and the earth has already been affected by blackouts.

NASA has reported a huge solar flare was emitted by the Sun and it is the most powerful one since 2006.  

This solar flare has already caused some radio blackouts on Earth and it may cause aurora visible as far south as London.  On the morning of September 6, scientists watched as two X-flares were unleashed by the sun.

The stronger flare was the second of the two emitted by the Sun yesterday morning and it was seen by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). At 5:10 AM EDT, the Sun unleashed an X2.2 flare, with X-class denoting the most intense flares. Then, at 8:02 AM EDT, a much bigger flare measuring X9.3 was unleashed. By comparison, the last time we saw a flare this big was in 2006, which measured at X9.0. The number shows the intensity, with X2 being twice as intense as X1, X3 three times as intense, and so on.

The loops of plasma emitted during these two flares were ten times the size of planet Earth. Scientists got to watch the massive coronal mass ejection from these flares, which can be seen below in the gif provided.

According to NASA, the flares were emitted from an active region of the Sun known as AR 2673. This region also emitted a mid-level flare on September 4, 2017. But scientists say the timing of these big flares is rather odd as the Sun is currently heading towards the quieter period of its 11-year solar cycle known as solar minimum. This cycle began in 2008, with solar minimum expected in the next couple of years.

“This is a phase when such eruptions on the Sun are increasingly rare, but history has shown that they can nonetheless be intense,” said NASA.

And this one had some effects on life on Earth.  It knocked out the high-frequency radio, according to the NOAA, and degraded low-frequency navigation. But the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) said it was expecting some radio blackouts yesterday, and the high-frequency radio was expected to drop out for an hour.

The particles from the CME (coronal mass ejection) can also cause aurora activity further south than normal as they interact with Earth’s magnetosphere.

*The map above shows how far south the aurora will be visible thanks to these solar flares.  If interested, watch the skies for the show.

Scientists aren’t sure yet if the CME was directed towards Earth. If it does come our way, it could cause a strong geomagnetic storm that will further hamper communications.

*  *  *

But there is a silver-lining to this massive solar flare.

As Bloomberg points out, North Korea could decide to delay its next ballistic missile launch because the current outbreak of severe geomagnetic storms can pose a risk to electronic equipment.

As we detailed previously, South Korean Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon said Thursday the next launch could come on Saturday, the anniversary of North Korea’s founding.

But, while missiles are generally heavily shielded against radiation, Kim Jong Un may decide not to risk firing one during the solar flares in case they lose data or ancillary equipment, said Lance Gatling, an aerospace consultant with Nexial Research in Tokyo.

He added that the U.S. and Japan might be hoping for a launch so they can test detection and tracking equipment in a storm environment.

But while that temporary cessation of North Korea"s nuclear development is positive, StockBoardAsset notes that the solar flare shows that our modern economies and societies are fragile.

There is a reason why our Government and NASA are preparing as highlighted in the recent Exec Order.

This week"s X-9 solar flare - the largest in a decade should serve as a reminder how close we really are to the edge. At the same time, a Hurricane in the Atlantic called Irma strengthens to a CAT-5 with winds near 185mph spiraling towards Florida. Perhaps, the sun and earth are more interconnected than we think as junk science called global warming distracts the true understanding of how nature works.

"Don't Mess With Yellowstone Supervolcano" Geologists Warn NASA

Two weeks ago, we reported that Brian Wilcox, a former member of the NASA Advisory Council on Planetary Defense, had shared a report on what the Space Agency considered one of the greatest natural threats to human civilization: the Yellowstone "supervolcano."

Following an article published by BBC about super volcanoes last month, a group of NASA researchers got in touch with the media to share a report previously unseen outside the space agency about the threat Yellowstone poses, and what they hypothesize could possibly be done about it. 

“I was a member of the NASA Advisory Council on Planetary Defense which studied ways for NASA to defend the planet from asteroids and comets,” explains Brian Wilcox of Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) at the California Institute of Technology. 

“I came to the conclusion during that study that the supervolcano threat is substantially greater than the asteroid or comet threat.”

Yellowstone currently leaks about 60 to 70% of its heat into the atmosphere through stream water which seeps into the magma chamber through cracks, while the rest of the heat builds up as magma and dissolves into volatile gasses. The heat and pressure will reach the threshold, meaning an explosion is inevitable. When NASA scientists considered the fact that a super volcano’s eruption would plunge the earth into a volcanic winter, destroying most sources of food, starvation would then become a real possibility.  Food reserves would only last about 74 days, according to the UN, after an eruption of a super volcano, like that under Yellowstone.  And they have devised a risky plan that could end up blowing up in their faces.  Literally.

Wilcox hypothesized that if enough heat was removed, and the temperature of the super volcano dropped, it would never erupt. But he wants to see a 35% decrease in temperature, and how to achieve that, is incredibly risky. One possibility is to simply increase the amount of water in the supervolcano. As it turns to steam. the water would release the heat into the atmosphere, making global warming alarmists tremble.

“Building a big aqueduct uphill into a mountainous region would be both costly and difficult, and people don’t want their water spent that way,” Wilcox says. “People are desperate for water all over the world and so a major infrastructure project, where the only way the water is used is to cool down a supervolcano, would be very controversial.”

So, NASA came up with an alternative plan: the smartest people on earth believe the most viable solution could be to drill up to 10km down into the super volcano and pump down water at high pressure. The circulating water would return at a temperature of around 350C (662F), thus slowly day by day extracting heat from the volcano. And while such a project would come at an estimated cost of around $3.46 billion, it comes with an enticing catch which could convince politicians (taxpayers) to make the investment.

“Yellowstone currently leaks around 6GW in heat,” Wilcox says. “Through drilling in this way, it could be used to create a geothermal plant, which generates electric power at extremely competitive prices of around $0.10/kWh. You would have to give the geothermal companies incentives to drill somewhat deeper and use hotter water than they usually would, but you would pay back your initial investment, and get electricity which can power the surrounding area for a period of potentially tens of thousands of years. And the long-term benefit is that you prevent a future supervolcano eruption which would devastate humanity.”

To be sure, NASA itself admitted that drilling into a super volcano comes with its own risks, like the eruption that scientists are desperate to prevent. Triggering an eruption by drilling would be disastrous.

“The most important thing with this is to do no harm,” Wilcox says. “If you drill into the top of the magma chamber and try and cool it from there, this would be very risky. This could make the cap over the magma chamber more brittle and prone to fracture. And you might trigger the release of harmful volatile gases in the magma at the top of the chamber which would otherwise not be released.”

Now, it is others" turn to slam the NASA plan: according to a geologist at Yellowstone national park, the proposal could have dire consequences, including killing countless animals.

According to the Star, Dr Jefferson Hungerford, who works at Yellowstone, has warned NASA scientists to stay away from the volcano. He said that: “messing with a mass that sits underneath our dynamic Yellowstone would potentially be harmful to life around us.

“It would potentially be a dangerous thing to play around with.” And he questioned whether the drilling could even work, saying “we’re not there scientifically”.

More importantly, Dr Hungerford said there is no need for anything to be done proactively at Yellowstone, adding: “We won’t see [an eruption]. Very likely we will never see it.”

Perhaps he is correct: the Earth has 20 known supervolcanoes, which if they erupt, would trigger planet-changing effects. Major eruptions are incredibly rare, with the last one approximately 26,500 years ago in New Zealand. But if a similar event occurred today, it would cause a nuclear winter with humans wiped out in just a few months from starvation.

For now, what some of the smartest people in the world disagreeing on what to do next, the increasingly more precarious status quo is the most likely outcome.

Solar Eclipse Is Big Business For Illinois

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

People from worldwide are converging on Southern Illinois today to witness a total eclipse of the sun. I will be among that crowd.

We booked our hotel late, as in a couple months ago. The closest, in fact, the only room we could find was at a Best Western in Paducah, Kentucky, for nearly $400 a night.

Every hotel in Southern Illinois was booked solid. Carbondale, Illinois, home of Southern Illinois University is one of the big beneficiaries.

The Wall Street Journal reports Carbondale Plans to Make Hay While Sun Doesn’t Shine.

This roughly 25,000-person college town in southern Illinois will become shrouded in total darkness for as long as two minutes and 40 seconds during Monday’s solar eclipse, longer than almost any other location in the country.

But for Carbondale city administrators who have been preparing for the phenomenon since last summer, the eclipse is as much an opportunity to boost the city’s faltering university-based economy as it is a chance to view a cosmic light show.

Carbondale’s population is expected to double Monday as astronomers, NASA scientists, curiosity-seekers, students of all ages and international media trek here for an event that could generate $8 million in local economic activity, according to city estimates. Carbondale businesses generate about $600 million annually in economic activity, according to the city.

The town’s moment in the blocked-out sun couldn’t come at a better time.

Southern Illinois University Carbondale, the city’s largest employer, has seen funding delays in recent years as a result of a record-breaking state budget stalemate in Springfield.

Carbondale normally relies on each student to generate $10,000 annually in local economic activity, said Mayor John “Mike” Henry, but dwindling student enrollment has cost the city about $50 million a year. Drugs and crime in pockets of the community have stretched local police and social services.

“Right at the beginning, we said, ‘We cannot fail at this,’” Mr. Henry said. “We’re going to overplan. We’re going to overspend. We’re going to do everything possible so that every single person has the best experience that they can have.”

Mr. Henry expedited the first phase of an expansive downtown-revitalization effort, spending about $1.75 million to tear up sidewalks, unify the streetscape, update public parking and improve street lighting.

Best Experience

In an effort to produce the “best experience” for everyone I can tell you the police were out en masse. I have never seen so many Illinois state troopers in my entire life.

In one 20 mile stretch on I-24 between the I-57/I-24 junction and Paducah, we saw seven unmarked cars with drivers pulled over. How many cars still in hiding is unknown.

This is big business for sure. Police and hotels shared the wealth. What effect this has on future Illinois tourism remains to be seen. But like world fairs and Olympics, I expect the benefits to be muted, if not negative, in relation to the amount of money spent in preparation.

Mish Setup

That is an EOS 5D Mark IV with a Canon 100-400mm L lens. Here is my Equipment List.

I grabbed the shot of part of my eclipse setup moments ago. The above image is not color corrected or sharpened in my typical fashion. I decided at the last-minute to do this article.

I have two cameras, two tripods, and computer-controlled software to fire my camera at the right time (hopefully), based on GPS positioning or longitude, latitude, and altitude at a site I selected on Sunday at Fern Cliffe State Park in Goreville, Illinois.

Note the black tape on the focusing ring. A few nights ago I focused on the full moon and taped the focusing ring in place. I am using mirror lockup to damp camera vibrations and will be bracketing like mad.

I have two cables from my camera to a computer via a USB to Com port setup to trigger shots at specified ISOs and shutter speeds, all programmed in advance, based on research of likely exposures needed. One cable fires the shutter, the other controls ISO and exposure.

I spent at least 60 hours testing my script and getting everything to run.

Minor League vs Major League

If that seems like a massive amount of work, I would agree. But I will also tell you it is minor league.

The NASA article 2 Minutes, 6 Hands, 1 Chance explains what major league looks like.

Here is an image clip.

I believe that attached to their massive telescope setup is the same lens and camera I am using. As in attached, I mean physically attached. When the telescope moves so does the Canon camera.

They have six hands to make last second adjustments. They also have tracking mounts that automatically move at the speed the sun is moving in the sky.

People come from all over the world thinking they will get good images. Realistically, they do not have a chance.

I hope to get one reasonable image. I may devote one camera to video. I still have not decided. If I do, the video will be wide angle because the sun is so high in the sky for this eclipse.

This entire exercise may be for naught, for everyone. Clouds can ruin everything. Even if it is sunny there are a thousand other things that can easily go wrong.

However, I found what I think is the perfect spot. I will be there at 7:00 AM or so to claim it.

Wish me luck. I will post results – what went right – and wrong within a few days or so. NASA will be much faster, I am sure.

You will find more statistics at Statista

Watch Live: Today's Once-In-A-Century Solar Eclipse

Experiencing a total solar eclipse is rare. And a solar eclipse that emcompasses the entire Continental US is even more rare. Which is why people from across the US will take a break from work and school and go outside for a glimpse of a total eclipse that"s expected to last just two minutes and 40 seconds.

The eclipse is expected to make landfall near Depoe Bay, Oregon at 10:15 local time and it will eventually pass into the Atlantic Ocean in South Carolina around 3 p.m. Eastern Time. Anyone who misses out on this year"s eclipse will have to wait seven years until the next one in April 2024.

In total, the moon will cast its shadow over the U.S. just a little longer than the duration of a feature movie, 1h and 33 minutes.

Observers outside the direct path of the total eclipse will still see a partial eclipse, where the moon covers just part of the sun. The next total eclipse over parts of North America won"t be witnessed until April 2024, then crossing from the south west, from Mexico, to the north east, towards Canada.

Luckily, for those chained to their desks, NASA has several livefeeds that will be monitoring the eclipse as it crosses the US.

According to Statista, the last eclipse to touch any part of the US occurred in July 1991, with only Hawaii experiencing it. The experience for locals was hampered by poor weather. But today’s event is even more rare, Statista explains, because it will cross the US from the Pacific to the Atlantic coast – the first to do so since 1918.

“The last total eclipse within the contiguous 48 United States occurred on February 26, 1979.

The "cosmic ballet" today is going to be the first one since 1918 where the path of darkness will cross the Pacific and Atlantic coasts as well as the first that will make landfall exclusively in the U.S. since independence in 1776.”

The eclipse’s 70-mile wide path of totality, an area where the moon will completel block out the Sun, plunging the area into darkness for a few minutes, doesn’t pass through any major US cities. However, nearly 200 million Americans live within a day’s drive of the eclipse, so towns and national parks in the 12 states within the path are bracing for a massive influx of visitors.

You will find more statistics at Statista

Not sure when to start watching? Check out the eclipse timeline below: