"This Could Not Have Been Suicide" - Judge Agrees That Argentine Prosecutor Was Murdered

After a team of forensic experts ruled in September that the 2015 shooting death of Argentine prosecutor Alberto Nisman was, indeed, murder – not suicide as the authorities had initially ruled – a federal judge has validated those findings in a lengthy ruling that seems to point the finger at former Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

The ruling is the latest blow to Fernandez, who won her bid for a senate seat in October. Though Fernandez has publicly said her decision to run is part of a political comeback, others have speculated that she ran for her senate seat to help insulate herself from accusations of money laundering and corruption, as well as her suspected work to cover up Iran’s role in financing the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires - a bombing that killed 85 people.

Alberto Nisman

Years later, Nisman was assigned to investigate a possible cover-up of Iranian officials’ role in the bombing. But he was found dead of a gunshot wound to the head in January 2015, hours before he was due to testify against former President Fernandez The ruling comes after a prosecutor recommended last year that the case be investigated as a murder.

In another stunning decision, Tuesday’s ruling by the Argentine judge also charged that Diego Lagomarsino, a former employee of Nisman’s, was an accessory to his murder, after a gun owned by Lagomarsino was found near Nisman’s body, as Reuters reported.

In a 656-page ruling, judge Julian Ercolini said there was sufficient proof to conclude that the shot to the head that killed Nisman in January 2015 was not self-inflicted. That marked the first time any judge has said the case was a murder.

 

Fernandez and others had suggested the death was a suicide, but a prosecutor investigating the case last year recommended it be pursued as a murder probe.

 

“Nisman’s death could not have been a suicide,” Ercolini wrote in Tuesday’s ruling, which also charged Diego Lagomarsino, a former employee of Nisman‘s, with accessory to murder.

Lagomarsino has acknowledged lending Nisman the gun that killed him the day before he was to appear before Congress to detail his allegation against Fernandez. But he has said Nisman asked him for the gun to protect himself and his family.

Earlier this month, Fernandez was formally charged with treason by a federal judge, and a federal judge called for her arrest. But before her arrest, Congress would have to vote to strip Fernandez of her immunity.

Meanwhile, her former Foreign Minister, Hector Timerman, was placed under arrest and confined to his home, where he wrote this New York Times op-ed professing his innocence and claiming to be a political prisoner.

In an unrelated case, Fernandez and her two children were indicted back in April on corruption charges related to deals involving a family owned real-estate company.

After leaving office in December 2015 following eight years in power – a period where Argentina’s economy experienced continued decline.

Her successor, the center-right former Mayor of Buenos Aires Mauricio Macri, has swiftly implemented pro-growth economic reforms like abolishing the country’s capital controls and reaching a settlement with a group of US hedge funds led by Paul Singer’s Elliott Management Corporation.

Now, the possibility that Fernandez will be held accountable for her actions is looking increasingly likely.
 

Crew Of Missing Argentine Submarine Makes Contact Attempt

Argentinians breathed a collective sigh of relief Saturday night after authorities revealed that the crew of a missing submarine had attempted to make contact for the first time since communication with the sub suddenly ceased on Wednesday. Defense Minister Oscar Aguad said over Twitter on Saturday night that the submarine, which was carrying a crew of 44 sailors, had sent seven “communication attempts” earlier in the day. He did not provide further details.

“We received seven signals from satellite calls that would come from the submarine San Juan. We are working hard to locate him and we convey hope to the families of the 44 crew members: that they may soon have them in their homes.”

Recibimos siete señales de llamadas satelitales que provendrían del submarino San Juan. Estamos trabajando arduamente para localizarlo y transmitimos la esperanza a
las familias de los 44 tripulantes: que en breve puedan tenerlos en sus hogares.

— Oscar Aguad (@OscarAguadCBA) November 19, 2017

The vessel disappeared from radar last week, forcing the Argentine navy to hastily organize a search and recovery effort. The last registered position of the vessel was on November 15 at 07:30 in latitude 46 ° 44 ‘south and longitude 59 ° 54 West, at the height of Puerto Madryn and off the coast of Patagonia. Since then, the vessel has not reappeared on radar, or been spotted by the search party, according to the Associated Press.

The whereabouts of the vessel, the subject of an intensive search involving eight nations including the US, remains a mystery. Officials don’t even know whether it’s at the surface or underwater.

The submarine ARA San Juan left Argentina Monday to participate in naval exercises off southern Argentina before departing Monday from the city of Ushuaia for a naval base in Mar de Plata. The last contact was made after the northbound vessel passed the Valdes Peninsula about 270 miles off Argentina’s coast.

NASA joined the search effort on Saturday with a P-3 Orion propeller-driven patrol airplane, equipped with magnetometers, infrared cameras and other sensors that can detect a submerged submarine. The aircraft, which can also measure ice thickness, is temporarily based in Ushuaia to take part in a NASA survey of Antarctica.

Argentine naval officials said they received no distress signals from the vessel, a German-built TR-1700 model, before losing contact. Vessels from Chile, Brazil, Peru, Uruguay, South Africa and the United Kingdom are also assisting in the search.

Pope Francis, a native of Argentina, said in a statement issued by the Vatican earlier Saturday that he was praying for the safe return of the submarine and its crew, and for “spiritual serenity and Christian hope” for Argentina. He said he felt especially close to family members “in these difficult moments."

Anguished family members of the crew have gathered at the Mar de Plata base awaiting news.

“It’s agonizing the passing of the hours, a mixture of horrible feelings and silence,” said Marcela Moyano, wife of submarine machinist Hernan Rodriguez, in an interview at the base with TodoNoticias TV channel before Aguad’s announcement. “It’s a situation of desperation and fear. But we’re still hopeful they are returning,” according to the Associated Press.

Of the missing sub’s 44 crew members, one is a woman: Lt. Eliana Maria Krawczyk, 34, the sub’s operations chief. Her father, Eduardo, said in a TV interview Thursday that he last talked to his daughter two weeks ago.

Recién me desayuno con esto ¿alguien sabe algo? INMENSO OPERATIVO PARA DAR CON LOS 37 TRIPULANTES DEL SUBMARINO ARA SAN JUAN DESAPARECIDO ESTA NOCHE pic.twitter.com/JPfq6geVf7

— ALICIA (@AliciaVery) November 17, 2017

“She told me that after arriving at Tierra del Fuego, that the (female) governor of the state came aboard the submarine and congratulated her because a woman was on the crew,” Eduardo Krawczyk said. He added that he is praying for his daughter’s safe return and that seeing her again will be like “being born again."

Psychologists and a Roman Catholic bishop have arrived at the naval base to counsel family members. Navy spokesman Enrique Balbi said the fleet was “not discarding any hypothesis” on what might have happened to the sub.  “We are going to suppose the submarine had problems of communications, that there might have been a blackout, or power failure, and that it is now adrift,” Balbi said. “From (projected) movement after going adrift, we can estimate the search area."

The diesel-powered sub is one of three submarines in Argentina’s fleet. Measuring 220 feet long, the sub has a range of 13,000 miles. It underwent a major overhaul and reconditioning in 2008 that officials here say qualified it for 30 years more of use.

? Versión oficial de la Armada: "Aún no se ha encontrado el submarino ARA San Juan" https://t.co/ERZafwu4gA pic.twitter.com/mQPANJOFKg

— MDZ online (@mdzonline) November 17, 2017

But weather in the search area has turned rough, with strong winds and waves as high as 20 feet, complicating the rescue operation, Balbi said.

“Remember that the part of the submarine that is above surface is very small, just a third of its length. The color of the vessel doesn’t help either because it mimics that of the ocean,” Balbi told reporters.

Argentine President Mauricio Macri tweeted Friday that the government is doing everything it can to find the sub: “We are in contact with the families of the crew of the submarine ARA San Juan who is missing to inform and support them. We share your concern and that of all Argentines."

Estamos en contacto con las familias de la tripulación del submarino ARA San Juan que se encuentra extraviado para informarlos y apoyarlos. Compartimos su preocupación y la de todos los argentinos.

— Mauricio Macri (@mauriciomacri) November 18, 2017

Four Argentine ships, various helicopters and 500 marines are participating in the search.

“This Market is Absolutely 100% Going To Crash”

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

Him: "This market is absolutely 100% gonna crash."

Me: "You sound so certain?"

Him: "Just look at the valuations."

Me: "Pricey valuations don"t always culminate in a market crash. There are other factors to consider."

Him: "Trump trade is over, and I"m now 50% hedged on US exposure and net long EMs. Plus, the dollar is finished. It"s gonna be ugly."

This conversation went on for some time. I was talking with a well known hedge fund manager (who will remain nameless) and the main topic was the US equity market.

His view is typical, but I"m not sure he"s correct.

Here"s the Dow:

A bull market ever since 2008. Overvalued? Sure, but wait...

Here"s institutional investor sentiment as reported in the FT:

"According to the survey , which questioned about 200 investors who manage almost $600bn of assets, just 10 per cent expect tax cuts to be passed before Congress breaks for a summer recess."

And here we are looking at the Sentix survey. In blue is the market bias or confidence and in grey the equity market:

The divergence is significant. In short, investors don"t believe in the current bull market. That may be a problem only if everyone is already long. They"re not.

Institutional money is bearish and retail participation at just 54% is a hair off all time lows of 52%. Going into 2008, this stood at 62%. This isn"t how bull markets end, folks. A pause in a rally? Sure, but no stock market crash.

It"s Always Relative

What is rarely discussed is that we live in a relative world, not an absolute one. Only if you"re dining at a steak house, do you have to eat just steak. If you"re sitting at a buffet table, you make your choices based on what"s on offer.

Let"s step out of the steak house and step up to the buffet table.

Let"s look at fixed income. Here"s the yield on the US 30-year:

And the German 30-year Bund yield:

I could toss in the Japanese bond yields and Gilts and you"ll see the same thing.

In fact, let me point out that the Government of Argentina.

Yes, Argentina - a country well known for repeatedly cocking up their finances and defaulting on their debt. Well, they just managed to pull off the sale of a $2.75 billion worth of 100-year bonds with a coupon of... get this... 7.125.%.

Surely, a country with a history of repeated defaults struggled to sell the bond? Nope. According to the FT, "the bond attracted $9.75bn in orders from investors."

3.5X oversubscribed, folks. Now, ain"t that something?

This is a good opportunity to remind ourselves of something, especially when diving into the EM world. There are a few risks with a bond. There is duration risk, default risk, and the other is currency risk.

Memories are indeed short.

Here is the dollar against the Argentinian peso:

Summary

Equity markets may well be overvalued but realise that capital has to go somewhere and if, like us, you"re looking for asymmetry where risk is low relative to reward, then shorting the equity markets makes bugger all sense in this environment.

I"ve pointed out only two major markets here, albeit the two largest - bonds and equities. But viewing one market on its own is a really dangerous way to look at markets as they are all interconnected and a framework for all the moving pieces is needed. The bubble, in case you haven"t realised it, is in bonds.

Which brings me to my question for the day:

Cast your vote here and also see what others would do

- Chris

"Eight times in its 194 year financial history has Argentina defaulted on its borrowings, most recently in 2014 amidst its dispute with creditors from its prior episode of financial ruin in 2001. At its historical pace, the soon to be-issued 7.125s of 2117 (priced at $90 to yield around 7.92%) will default more than four times over before that so very-distant prospective maturity date." — Philip Grant of Grant"s Interest Rate Observer

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