Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Testing Daily Chart Upchannel Resistance

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Weekly/Daily

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was rejected yesterday at upchannel resistance (on the weekly and daily chart), and may see a few days of profittaking as hinted by the daily MACD histogram sliding down.  A stronger selloff could quickly coincide with the daily MACD negatively crossing.  Nevertheless, longer term bulls will take comfort in the weekly MACD still sloping strongly up.  I suspect that after the next few days of consolidation, BTCUSD bulls may try once again to reach the psychologically key 20,000 whole figure level (which BTCUSD nearly did with a rise to over 19500 last Thursday on GDAX) ahead of the highly anticipated CME Bitcoin futures launch Monday (Sunday night Chicago).  For those who haven"t seen the BTCUSD price performance relative to other bubbles throughout history, or for those who are buying out of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), take a moment to review the following chart.  

 

 

 

 

Ethereum (ETHUSD) Weekly/Daily

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is seeing strong profittaking today, forming what appears to be upchannel resistance (on the daily chart).  The rally yesterday to just above 700 fulfills the 300 in gains that could have been projected based on the approximate height of the ascending triangle (as calculated from the mid May low of 100 to the triangle resistance at 400), and the point of triangle breakout at 400.   After another day or so of further consolidation, ETHUSD may want to retest the same upchannel resistance at 700 especially as BTCUSD stands a decent chance of reaching for the psychologically key 20,000 whole figure level (which BTCUSD nearly did with a rise to over 19500 last Thursday on GDAX) ahead of the highly anticipated CME Bitcoin futures launch Monday (Sunday night Chicago).  The weekly and daily MACD are still sloping strongly up, suggesting bulls will continue buying on pullbacks. 

 

 

 

Click here for today"s technical analysis on USDCAD 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) Island Reversal Forming in Weekly Chart

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is forming its 1st red weekly candle in 6 weeks as profittaking kicks in after ETHUSD briefly tested the psychologically key 400 whole figure resistance level. With the current red weekly candle quickly lengthening reversing most gains over the last 2 weeks, a bearish Island Reversal is forming. Significantly, ETHUSD is arguably breaking upchannel support (on the weekly and daily chart). The daily chart provides a clearer set of warnings for bulls with the RSI, Stochastics and MACD decisively sliding lower. Nevertheless, with the weekly MACD red line still flattish and yet to turn down, bears may soon lock in profits and trigger a short-covering rally at some point in the next day or so.  Any bounce will be short-lived with longer term bears having gotten the upper hand with today"s weekly/daily chart upchannel support break.

 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is forming its 1st red weekly candle in 6 weeks as profittaking kicks in after BTCUSD briefly tested the psychologically key 5000 whole figure resistance level. While the red weekly candle is still just beginning to form, and far from being bearish just yet (given its small body so far), the technicals on BTCUSD can rapidly change within a day given its volatility. Although the daily chart is appearing bearish with the RSI, Stochastics and MACD tiring, the weekly MACD continues sloping up suggesting there may be a bit more upside in the next day or so before the bulls throw in the towel and bears become more aggressive. Significantly, BTCUSD is testing upchannel support (on the weekly and daily chart), and has a high likelihood of breaking upchannel support based on Ethereum (ETHUSD)"s break today of a similar upchannel support on its weekly/daily chart.

Click here for today"s technical analysis on USDJPY

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Gold, VIX, Bitcoin Surge; Stocks, USDJPY Tumble After North Korean Missile Launch

Dow futures down over 120 points (and Nikkei 225 down over 200 points) at the reopen following North Korea"s "successful" firing of a ballistic missile across Japan.

Gold futures spiked to $1325 as USDJPY plunged...

The USDJPY is tumbling on the news... Breaking below 108.50, a break of April"s 108.12 may require more than a little help from Kuroda and friends.

Japanese equity market futures plunged to 4-month lows...

And VIX futures are snapping higher...

It's 7pm In New York, Do You Know Where Your Precious Metals Manipulators Are?

It appears the machines have found a new pattern to follow...

Last night we pointed out the "odd" - in the sense that nothing amazes us anymore, but still, behavior in precious metals futures markets.

At 1906ET last night, Silver futures flash-smashed higher, running the day"s high-stops, before plunging back to earth...

Gold futures also followed suit tonight...

This would normally be shrugged off as just another example of the utter farce that global capital markets have become. However, a glance back in recent history at the silver market"s most recent chaos moment - on July 6th - and a "funny" thing stood out!!!

Gold also followed suit that night too...

h/t @TFMetals

At exactly 1906 ET on July 6th, Silver futures flash-crashed (some say over 10%, though many data feeds have been subsequently "cleansed" of that sin), before normalizing.

*  *  *

And sure enough, tonight, at exactly 1906ET once again, "someone" went to town on Silver & Gold futures...

And it even looks like the machines tried to front-run each other a little into the 1906ET mini-flash-crash

So, we ask again, what is it about 1906ET that sends the algos in overdrive? Or is it all just coincidence? Probably nothing, right?

It"s now deja deja vu all over again...

What Is It About 1906ET That Spooks Precious Metals 'Traders'?

The always-efficient so-called markets exhibited some interesting behavior once again this evening.

First of all, Dow futures flash-smashed higher after re-opening following AAPL"s earnings blow out, only to settle back down to reality very shortly after...

However, it was the precious metals "markets" that went a little turbo. At 1906ET, Silver futures flash-smashed higher, running the day"s high-stops, before plunging back to earth...

Gold futures also followed suit tonight...

This would normally be shrugged off as just another example of the utter farce that global capital markets have become. However, a glance back in recent history at the silver market"s most recent chaos moment - on July 6th - and a "funny" thing stood out!!!

Gold also followed suit that night too...

h/t @TFMetals

At exactly 1906 ET on July 6th, Silver futures flash-crashed (some say over 10%, though many data feeds have been subsequently "cleansed" of that sin), before normalizing.

So what is it about 1906ET that sends the algos in overdrive? Or is it all just coincidence? Probably nothing, right?

It"s deja vu all over again...

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Nears All-Time High on Spike Above Daily Chart Downchannel Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) crushed shorts yesterday, smashing above the daily chart"s downchannel resistance and soaring towards the all-time high around 3000.  With yesterday"s massive rally, the negative weekly MACD crossover has been proved a false signal.  Odds are quite good that a sustainable longer term BTC/USD bottom was found last week, especially with ETH/USD also strongly rebounding this past week.  Some consolidation can be expected today with daily RSI and Stochastics tiring, although with daily MACD just having positively crossed, more upside can be expected early next week resuming BTC/USD"s attempt to regain its all-time high.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart

Ethereum (ETH/USD) rebounded strongly yesterday, reversing Wednesday"s profittaking, and reinforcing the break Tuesday above the daily chart"s downchannel resistance.  Although still vulnerable in the next several weeks to more downside (as the weekly MACD - not shown in the accompanied daily chart - has just negatively crossed this past week), odds are quite good though that the weekly MACD negative crossover has been a false signal.  The ETH/USD bounce off the 61.8% Fib retrace of the rally from the beginning of the year has been reinforced by the very powerful rebound in BTC/USD this past week back towrads its all-time high.  Further offseting ETH/USD"s negative weekly MACD crossover is the rallying or bottomish daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) Daily Chart

Click here for today"s technical analysis on Cocoa

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Raw Sugar (SB) Testing Weekly Chart Descending Wedge Resistance

Raw Sugar (ICE SB Oct17) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

Raw Sugar (SB) surged almost 3% yesterday, completing 3 days of consolidation (just above the daily chart"s downchannel resistance) and resuming a 3 week plus bounce off just below 1300.  SB is firmly above downchannel resistance (on the 4hr chart) as well, and is now testing descending wedge resistance (on the weekly chart).  Due to the significant gap between this wedge"s support and resistance, there"s a decent chance for SB to be rejected and pushed lower towards wedge support.  Nevertheless, with weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD rallying or bottomish, odds favour SB breaking above this wedge resistance.  I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Friday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).

Click here for today"s technical analysis on Cocoa, Ethereum

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Silver Tests Overnight Flash-Crash Lows

Spot silver prices have slipped lower since the payrolls data this morning and are now testing (and rebounding) the overnight flash-crash lows as Japan opened...

Spot Silver...

The futures volume is considerably lower in this drop than the $475mm dump last night...

Gold is also falling...

Fed Fail? Traders Cut Rate-Hike Bets By The Most In History Last Week

The last two weeks have seen speculators cover over $710 billion worth of Fed rate-hike bets - the biggest move in Eurodollar futures history as Trump concerns and Fed Minutes reignite lost faith in the ebullient future that sparked the creation of a record $3 trillion bet that The Fed will be right this time.

Macro data has done nothing but collapse since The Fed hiked rates in March...

And perhaps traders are starting to realize this is anything but "transitory" as they covered a net 711,000 Eurodollar futures in the last two weeks - the most ever...

And while Specs covered ED shorts, they also added to Treasury longs - pushing the aggregate Treasury complex net speculative position to its longest since August 2014 (which ended with the 30Y yield crashing from over 3.00% to below 2.25% in 3 months)

Speculators turned net long in 10Y US Treasury futures for the first time since July 2016, buying 301K contracts in TY equivalents over the week.

They added 122K contracts in TY taking their net longs to 363K contracts, the highest since 2007 and turned net long by 47K contracts in US, buying 54K contracts. They also pared net shorts in FV by 46K contracts and increased net longs in TN by 22K contracts. However, they sold 43K contracts in TU futures over the week.

Additionally, according to BofA, the buy-side is positioning for a June hike but with fewer follow-up hikes - they sold record 2-yr treasury, bought the most 30-yr since Oct. 2014.

Away from bond-land, the buy-side bought the most WTI Crude and Gold futures since late February. Net positon in commodities was not stretched.

"Sell The News"

After initial kneejerks higher in the euro and equity futures, it appears Macron"s victory is now a "sell the news" event as EURUSD has dropped 60 pips from post-election highs...

S&P Futures are fading...

And gold has bounced back to Friday"s highs...

RBOB "In Danger Of Breaking Down" Amid Record Gasoline Contango

June 2017 gasoline futures are traded at the biggest discount ever to the July contract this morning...

As the front-month futures tumbles to its lowest since September.

As Bloomberg reports, Mizuho Securities" Bob Yawger warns its "not a good sign that gasoline is so weak, so close to Memorial Day and driving season... gasoline in danger of breakdown today."

Traders Throw In The Towel On March Rate Hike

As we previously noted, while speculatrs had been reducing their shorts in Treasury futures, they had added to Eurodollar shorts - pushing their bets on Fed rate hikes to record highs. However, as Bloomberg notes, signals are starting to emerge that traders who built up that heavy short, or hawkish, eurodollar base since the start of 2016 could be starting to throw in the towel on a March Fed rate hike.

CME confirmed that Wednesday saw record volume in fed fund futures of 658.7k contracts, beating the previous record of 613k on Nov. 9, the day after the U.S. presidential election. Over the course of Wednesday’s session, a total of 283k Apr fed funds futures contracts traded, largest single-day volume seen in the contract. Open interest in the contract rose by 109k, suggesting some short covering before the minutes and potential new longs after the minutes.

The March/May fed funds spread steepened to YTD wides, further suggesting short covering in March hike positions.

Morgan Stanley said in a note, adding that “hawkish investors increasingly gave up on March and continued to shift their focus to May”

So much for all that jawboning about March!!