Showing posts with label Southeast Asia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Southeast Asia. Show all posts

Monday, April 23, 2018

New Zealand Braces For ‘Super Gonorrhea’: It’s A Matter Of ‘WHEN, Not If’


The island nation of New Zealand is bracing itself for what scientists are calling “super gonorrhea.”  They say it is not a matter of ‘if’ the nation will be impacted by the disease, but a matter of ‘when.’


A historically resistant strain of gonorrhea has made its way from South East Asia to the United Kingdom and Australia, and experts are warning New Zealand will be struck next by the antibiotic-resistant super-bug gonorrhea strain. It’s in Eastern Australia, and it’s in Queensland, Australia, so those in New Zealand are rightly concerned.


Last month, it was reported a British man had contracted what was dubbed the world’s ‘worst ever’ case of gonorrhea, that he picked up in southeast Asia. It was the first documented case of the sexually transmitted infection that could not be cured with a combination of standard antibiotics. England’s public health agency even launched an “incident response” after discovering more cases of gonorrhea recently that are resistant to nearly all antibiotics currently available.


So, how long will it be before it makes its way to New Zealand? According to Family Planning’s Christine Roke, “if it isn’t here now, it will be very soon.” Auckland University associate professor of infectious diseases Mark Thomas agrees, telling Morning Report it’s “almost certain” there will be cases within the next year or two. It’s simply a matter of “who has sex with who,” he said.


Gonorrhea is caused by the Neisseria gonorrhoeae bacteria. The symptoms of the disease are difficult for men to live with, so most know fairly soon if they’ve contracted the infection. Symptoms can include discolored discharge, stomach pain, various forms of bleeding from the genitalia, discharge or bleeding from the anus and, for the fellas, sore testes. Women often are unaware of an infection, as it normally infects the cervix, which has no sensation. Occasionally you may also get a dry throat if you’ve contracted the bacteria.  Normally, it has been easily treated with antibiotics, however, this new strain, appears to be resistant.


“The problem with gonorrhea is it’s a very wily bug,” says Roke. “And it’s able to mutate very easily. This leads to developing resistance.” Thomas agreed, adding that it is entirely possible that within the next ten years, humanity will run out of drugs to treat the bacteria. Roke also says that with international travel at the levels it is these days, it’s only a matter of time before someone smuggles the gonorrhea bacteria unintentionally into the country. As invasive as customs can be, New Zealand is not exactly screening for this stuff at the border.


Thomas said the current test for gonorrhea does not determine if the usual treatment of an injection antibiotic and two oral antibiotic pills will work. He said more resistant strains will require hospitals to administer the necessary antibiotics.

Friday, March 16, 2018

Second Advent of the US Aircraft Carrier

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An outstanding event took place recently in the conflict around the South China Sea. The US aircraft carrier Carl Vinson moored in the Vietnamese port Cam Ranh. The Americans obviously took a triumph lap in this event – once again after the sadly remembered Vietnamese War and flight from Cam Ranh, where the American aircraft carriers were based at that time, they solemnly returned. Thus, the USA demonstrated both coherence and achievements of their policy in returning the American military forces to South-East Asia, which was declared in 2011.


The question is why the former American and then Soviet naval and air forces base once again solemnly accepted the American aircraft carrier? This fact seemed to be impossible, as the communists that won in Vietnam in 1975 excluded any opportunity of the American return. In addition, the consequences of the barbaric bombing with poisonous substances of Vietnamese fields and forests, thousands of victims among Vietnamese civilians killed by the American soldiers, would predetermine the relations between the two countries for a long time. However, it turned that it is not the case, once again demonstrating how unpredictable the modern foreign policy can be.


The case is that the problem of the ownership of the isles in the South China Sea, where Vietnam and China are disputing over the insular territories, has become one of the most important ones for Vietnam, and solution of which is not evident yet. China’s position has remained practically unchanged for several decades: it declared almost 80% of the water area of ​​the South China Sea as its territory without any agreement with its neighbours stating that all the islands of the sea – the Paracel and Spratly Islands – should also belong to Beijing. Such an approach has resulted into the fact that the conflict in the South China Sea turned into the region’s “sore spot”. Washington decided to use this situation for its benefit.


The power balance around Vietnam is very fortunate for the Americans: the country is in a complex situation, in fact. Russia’s rapprochement with China and the joint manoeuvres of the two fleets in the South China Sea leave no illusions for Hanoi in respect of Moscow’s position in the case of the hot stage of the conflicts in the South China Sea. Washington, through the statements of all its high-ranking visitors in Hanoi starting from President Obama, shows in every possible way its determination and desire to support Vietnam in the event of a military aggravation in the conflict around the islands and marine areas.


It is absolutely clear that all these promises of the USA are no more than a stroke of policy aimed at drawing Vietnam to their side and turning this country into ally in confrontation with China. In addition to the implementation of the so-called hedge policy – that is to form allies among the Southeast Asian nations bordering China that could be managed in a complex system of the US-Chinese relations, the goal of the Americans, especially in Vietnam, was to prove to all – we returned to Vietnam, and returned as the victors. In this regard, we should note that the entire American policy in respect of Vietnam pursues not only pragmatic goals, but propagandistic ones to show that the USA lose the battle, but win the war. In addition, some Americans state that their flight from Vietnam in 1975 was a temporary event, while their return will be permanent.


Meanwhile, It is absolutely obvious that the arrival of Carl Vinson in Cam Ran does not strengthen the security of Vietnam even slightly. There is no doubt that the Americans will act for their own benefit while using their presence in the country to make terms with China, and the situation of January 1974 may occur again. At that time, the Chinese marines landed on the Paracel Islands, where the South Vietnamese troops allied to the Americans have been located. The Americans did not answer to all the appeals of their allies who could not stem the Chinese attack because they already “sold” these isles and the allied Vietnamese units for China’s agreement to confront the USSR in the Cold War with the USA, and for the opportunity to locate their centres to track the launches of the Soviet missiles from Baikonur in the border areas of the Chinese Dzungaria.


Unfortunately, it is not yet clear that this sad experience was taken into account in the steps to bring the two countries closer. They should have kept it in mind.


Dmitry Mosyakov, Professor, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Director of the Centre for Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania and the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Vietnam International Trade Conference- a Bridge Between the EEU and ASEAN

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It is no secret that Vietnam is Russia’s key partner in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The two countries are linked by their long-standing, stable and friendly relations. Vietnam is also one of the most successful and influential members of ASEAN. Taken together, these factors make the development of relations with Vietnam a top-priority goal in Russia’s foreign policy. In order for two countries to work together successfully, it is very important that they be linked by a reliable transport infrastructure. Russia and Vietnam understand this very well, and are now working on some joint railway projects.


Most of the goods traffic between Vietnam and Russia is still carried by sea, while most passenger transport between the two countries is by air. Clearly, sea freight takes longer than land freight, while air freight is much more expensive. The best way to reduce the cost of transporting goods between Vietnam and Russia would thus be to transport them by land. This has become particularly evident as trade has increased over the last few years.


In October 2016 the Free Trade Agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union (EEA) – of which Russia is a member- and Vietnam entered into force. Since then the volume of trade between Russia and Vietnam has increased steeply. For example, in the third quarter of 2017 the total trade in goods between the two countries was worth $1.4 billion, almost 58% more than in the equivalent period in 2016.


Vietnam has also become much more popular with Russian tourists. More than half a million Russians visited Vietnam in 2017. All things considered, both countries need more efficient transport links to speed up both passenger and freight transport between them. The rate of the increase in trade and tourism gives grounds for confidence that it will not take long to recover the cost of establishing and constructing transport infrastructure to link Russia and Vietnam. The most effective way to transport large volumes of goods and large numbers of passengers is by rail.


In April 2015, during a visit by the Russian prime minister, Dimitry Medvedev, to Vietnam, the Russian national railway company, Russian Railways (RZhD), signed an agreement on cooperation with its Vietnamese equivalent, Vietnam Railways (VR).


In June 2017 RZhD and VR signed an action plan to implement the 2015 agreement. In accordance with this document RZhD may take part in the reconstruction of Vietnam’s existing railway network and the construction of new lines. Russian specialists may also help VR with the development of computer programs and with staff training. The plan also provides for test railway shipments from Russia to Vietnam.


In December 2017 the international trade fair Expo-Russia Vietnam 2017 took place in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, along with a Russian-Vietnamese business conference: “Economic Cooperation in a Free Trade Environment.” During this event, RZhD Logistics, a daughter company of RZhD, introduced its new service – fast container delivery from Vietnam to Russia, via China, and back. According to a company representative, transporting goods between Moscow and Hanoi along this route takes half as long as the sea route via the Suez Canal. Future users of the service were assured that a simplified customs procedure would apply and guarantee of shipments safety.


At the beginning of January 2018 the first test container train departed from Kaluga Region in Russia for Hanoi. The train started from Freight Village Borisino multimodal transport and logistics facility, part of Borisino industrial park, located on the boundary between Kaluga Region and Moscow. The shipment arrived at its destination in 20 days. As promised, this was approximately twice as fast as transporting it by sea would have been. Commenting on the news, a representative of RZhD Logistics said that the shipment in effect marked the opening of the Vietnam-Russia-Vietnam international transport corridor (ITC). A ceremonial reception committee made up of senior government officials and business leaders from both Russia and Vietnam greeted the train on its arrival in Hanoi.


The start of rail services between Russia and Vietnam may have both regional and global effects. For example, it should give a powerful boost to trade between Russia and Vietnam.


For example, it is well-known that Vietnam is one of the top ten global leaders in fishing and seafood exports. Its seafood is popular in many countries, but so far, it has only been exported to Russia in relatively small volumes. In February 2018, shortly after the trial launch of the new route, it was announced that Russia and Vietnam are discussing the possibility of significantly increasing Vietnamese seafood exports to Russia. This may well be connected to the launch of the new rail link, since seafood is perishable and needs to be delivered quickly, something that the new rail route will make possible. As the export of fish and seafood is one of the Vietnamese economy’s main sources of income, increasing sales to Russia will significantly strengthen economic links between Russia and Vietnam.


Rail links between Russia and Vietnam via China may also have an effect on relations between Vietnam and China. The increase in Russia’s presence in Vietnam and ASEAN may help to dilute China’s influence, the growth of which worries many countries in the region. It is also possible that it may have an effect on the territorial dispute between Vietnam and China over a group of islands in the South China Sea. Russia is an important partner for both Vietnam and China. The growth of Russia’s influence in the counties of South-East Asia may help Russia become an intermediary in their dispute with China.


One further possible consequence of the launch of the Vietnam-Russia-Vietnam ITC, more global in scale, is an increase in Eurasian integration. It is often said that Vietnam is a gateway to ASEAN for both Russia and for the EEU. Now a reliable road will take both goods and passengers to that gateway. The new ITC will also provide a good link to China’s One Belt One Road initiative, which has similar goals to the EEC- the economic integration of the countries in Eurasia and the creation of a unified transport network.


Dmitry Bokarev, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.

Sunday, March 11, 2018

Ongoing Russo-Vietnamese Military Cooperation Ensures Regional Stability

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It’s a well-established fact that when two states are determined to get engaged in defense and security cooperation in a bilateral format, they must enjoy sound relations before even thinking about such an undertaking. The Socialist Republic of Vietnam (SRV) is traditionally one of the oldest and most reliable partners of the Russian Federation, as the military cooperation between Moscow and Hanoi is decades old.


During the Vietnam War of 1957-1975 the USSR would provide all sorts of assistance to Vietnamese communists, making a significant contribution to their victory victory over invading American forces. Once this victory was achieved, both states enjoyed warm bilateral relations until the collapse of the USSR in 1991. The state that emerged in its place and inherited its legacy and its debts was the Russian Federation that would be pretty persistent in maintaining its ties with Vietnam. However, you can’t have too much of some things, that’s why military cooperation remains a pivotal component of the Russian-Vietnamese friendship. Vietnamese officers receive military training in Russia, while the Vietnamese armed forces are getting armed with all sorts of Russian military equipment. Vietnam is one of the largest, oldest and most reliable importers of Russian weapons. For example, the Vietnamese Air Force is flying Russia’s aircraft almost exclusively. According to some media reports, Soviet MiG-21 and SU-22 fighters are still in service, and since the beginning of the 2000s, Vietnam has been purchasing modern Russian SU-30MK2 rather actively.


Further still, these days the defense cooperation between Russia and Vietnam undergoes a constant process of rejuvenation. Firstly, this fact can be attributed to the general strengthening of Russian-Vietnamese relations, which required an extensive amount of efforts being invested by both states. Additionally, one cannot help but notice the growing tensions between Vietnam and China that remain unable to resolve the territorial dispute over the Paracel and Spratly islands in the South China Sea. The situation around those islands remain rather stable, but in order to better defend its position Vietnam needs to show its regional partners that it is a capable state, the one that has to be reckoned with. At the same time, Hanoi remains fairly concerned over the situation around North Korea and the constant growth of the terrorist threat across Southeast Asia. So it’s no wonder that when a state is presented with a list of such security challenges, it needs to ensure that it’s on the same foot with its most reliable partner.


In 2016, Vietnam started operating six Russian submarines, while various media sources keep running reports that Hanoi is planning to acquire a number of Russian conventional warships.


Last year’s visit of the Vietnamese President, Chiang Dai Kuang to Russia that was desgined to allow him to hold prolonged negotiations with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, resutled in a total of 20 investment contracts being signed with a total worth of 10 billion dollars. The Vietnamese and Russian leaders declared common views on security issues in the APR and their adherence to the UN Charter. Soon after the visit of the Vietnamese leader to Russia, the SRV made an order for the purchase of 64 Russian tanks.


Additionally, at the very begginging of this year Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, arrived to Hanoi in order to enjoy a two weeks long stay. During this visit he met with the President of Vietnam, Chiang Dai Kuang along with with his Vietnamese counterpart Ngô Xuân Lịch. It was reported that the sides discussed various issues of cooperation in various military areas. Among them was the question of acquisition of Russian S-400 AA systems that, according to Shoigu, still possess unsurpassed capabilities, which were displayed by their recent deployment in Syria.


When describing the ongoing cooperation between Russia and Vietnam, Shoigu would note that it is strategic in its nature as it remains Russia’s top priority to maintaini close ties with Vietnam, adding that Vietnam is one of Moscow’s most important security partners in the Asia-Pacific region.


It is reported that a comprehensive plan that would allow the two states to enchase the military cooperation between the Russian Federation and Vietnam has already been drafted for the years 2018-2020. It provides a list of various activities, including joint military exercises. According to Russia’s Defence minister, Russian armed forces are preapared to share their hands on experience of testing even the most advance military equipment in combat conditions. It is expected that the document will be signed in the near future. Further still, this year will be marked by yet another high-profile Russian-Vietnamese meeting.


Futher development of the ongoing cooperation between Moscow And Hanoi will bring a drastic change to the situation in Southeast Asia, as it’s been announced two years ago that Russia was thinking about the possiblity of rebuilding the former Soviet naval base in Vietnam.


It should be recalled that back in 1979 the USSR received the right to freely use for 25 years a  navy miltary base near Cam Ran free of charge. It ceased its operations in 2002, when the Russian side decided not to renew its lease. However things have changed since then, that is why a Russian-Vietnamese agreement signed in 2003 alowed both states to use the joint base in Cam Ran for the repair of submarines. In November 2014, two countries signed an agreement on a simplified procedure of the entry of Russian naval vessels to Cam Ran. The ships of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Federation make regular official and unofficial visits to Vietnam. Now the question of granting the ships of the Vietnamese Navy the right to make to visit the Russian port of Vladivostok freely is being discussed.


There’s no details about the possibility of negotiations on the reconstruction of the Russian military base in Vietnam. However, the above mentioned agreements can be considered a step towards such negotiations. The return of the Russian armed forces to Vietnam be beneficial for the Russian Federation, which wants to increase its influence in the APR. In addition, Russia’s military presence could help stabilize siutation in the region that has been experiencing a great many of turbulent processes, now that the APR has become a zone of political rivalry between a number of states. This notion is usually examined through the prism of the struggle for regional dominance between the US and China. However, Beijing has a long list of ongoing territorial disputes with India, Japan and a number of ASEAN countries. Moreover, there’s been a surge of Islamist militant acitvities in both Myanmar and Thailand. Against this background it is possible that a fully operational Russian military base in Vietnam may allow regional players to counter balance the influence exploited by other extra-regional players, namely the United States.


Dmitry Bokarev, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.

Saturday, March 10, 2018

Pushing Vietnam Against China: Kissinger & Brzezinski in Southeast Asia

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The Socialist Republic of Vietnam is set to host a US aircraft carrier from the pacific fleet. The USS Carl Vinson will be docked in Vietnam, and this will send a clear message of hostility from Vietnam to the People’s Republic of China. 


The South China Sea has been a point of contention in recent years, as China works to secure the route of oil tankers and other importing vessels destined for Shanghai and other Chinese ports. The USA seeks to maintain its ability to stop China’s oil supply at any time with a heavy military presence in the pacific. China has escalated its military presence in the South China Sea, looking to make sure that no matter what happens in international relations, the huge apparatus of production on the Chinese mainland cannot be shut down by a US blockade. A Chinese corporation is currently working to construct a canal through Nicaragua, so that imports to China crossing into the Pacific can never be compromised.


While Donald Trump cancelled the Trans Pacific Partnership, and promised a divergence away from the Obama-era strategies, he has continued courting Vietnam as an ally against China.


In the early months of his administration, the Trump White House promoted dissidents and religious activists who sought to overthrow the Communist Party of Vietnam. Trump seemed to be reassuring the anti-Communist Vietnamese exile community that he would not continue Obama’s overtures toward Hanoi. However, Trump has not reinstated the arms embargo against Vietnam which was lifted in 2016, and the docking of the USS Carl Vinson will be the largest US military presence in the Southeast Asian country since the “Fall of Saigon” in 1975.


Kissinger and Brzezinski: Dividing Countries, Manipulating Leftists


The strategy of playing China and Vietnam against each other did not begin with Barack Obama, but goes as far back as the Nixon administration. In the aftermath of the Sino-Soviet split, China attempted to present itself as a bastion of third world anti-colonial revolution. China escalated its support for the Vietnamese National Liberation Front, accusing the Soviet leadership of being “revisionists” and “betrayers of people’s war.”


But as China’s Cultural Revolution escalated, and the Gang of Four of ascended following the fall of Lin Biao, China’s tensions with the Soviet Union took on a different character. China began to speak of the Soviet Union as “Social-Imperialists” and “the main danger” to the world. The “Theory of Three Worlds” laid the ideological basis for Mao Zedong to welcome Richard Nixon to Beijing, and establish diplomatic relations with Washington. Henry Kissinger, advisor to Richard Nixon, is widely credited with the strategy of recruiting China as an ally against the Soviet Union in the Cold War.


The withdrawal of the USA from Vietnam after Nixon’s “secret plan” of mass bombing failed, was viewed as a humiliating defeat for the United States. The Pentagon strategy of “peace through strength” fell out of favor in Washington, and those who advocated covert action and the funding of proxies had the upper hand in foreign policy strategy.


President Jimmy Carter called himself a student of CIA strategist Zbiegnew Brzezinski. The Carter administration talked a language of detente and non-interventionism to the world, while the USA escalated its covert operations in Latin America and Central and Southeast Asia under the surface.


While Kissinger’s strategy for normalization of relations between the USA and China on the basis of opposing the Soviet Union laid the basis for the divisions, the Kampuchea War, in which thousands of Vietnamese, Cambodian, and Chinese people lost their lives, came about by utilizing the strategies of Brzezinski.


USA covertly supported Pol Pot wing of the Communist movement in Cambodia, which slaughtered the Marxist-Leninists and put forward a bizarre ideology of “Agrarian Socialism.” Pol Pot was nominally a Communist, but he opposed industrial development. Pol Pot’s regime persecuted intellectuals, evacuated the urban centers, and abolished all currency, arguing that Cambodia could remain “pure” in its communist ideals by remaining a deeply impoverished, agricultural military state. The world communist movement widely condemned Pol Pot as ultra-left and semi-anarchist. His government of “Democratic Kampuchea” rejected the notion of historical progress and development, which is central to Marxism. Not surprisingly, it also condemned Vietnam for its alliance with the Soviet Union, echoing the position that the USSR was a bastion of “Soviet Social Imperialism.”


This was the same strategy that Brzezinski had implemented in Eastern Europe. In Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and many other parts of the Eastern Bloc, Brzezinski had mastered the art of manipulating youth and intellectuals. Most of the young people who received covert support from US intelligence as they destabilized Marxist-Leninist governments did not advocate capitalism, but articulated some brand of middle class leftism. The Prague Spring of 1968, the Hungarian Revolt of the 1956, and many other anti-communist uprisings fomented by the CIA involved young people who believed they were “anarchists,” “Trotskyists,” “syndicalists” or “democratic socialists.” These young people, often from intellectual strata, with grievances against their government were effectively manipulated to serve the west. The ultra-leftist rhetoric served as a cover, as Washington manipulated them as pawns against the Soviet Union and its allied Marxist-Leninist states.


Pol Pot was a wealthy Cambodian intellectual who had studied in France. He considered Soviet society to be overly rigid and authoritarian, and wanted to implement a more utopian and anti-industrial leftist vision in his home country. Whether he was aware of it or not, much like the idealists in European color revolutions, the US Central Intelligence Agency aided him in implementing his ultra-leftist, anti-communist potpourri. The Khmer Rouge served as a counter gang of sorts, preaching Communist sounding rhetoric as they rallied people in Cambodia to fight against Vietnam and the Soviet Union.


Disagreements in Hanoi


While the US backed government in south Vietnam collapsed in 1975, Vietnam was unable to begin the process of peaceful socialist construction until 1980. War with China and Pol Pot’s “Democratic Kampuchea,” covertly supported by the United States, kept the country in a state of war for another half decade. Since peace was established in 1980, the Vietnamese Communist Party has made huge achievements in raising the life expectancy and increasing the standard of living for the population. The official position of the Vietnamese Communist Party is that they have not fully achieved the construction of modern socialism like China, Cuba, and other countries, but that they are diligently working toward that end, utilizing foreign investment in the process.


While Washington’s strategy in the late 1970s was to support China and Pol Pot against Vietnam, which was a soviet aligned country at the time, in the present time, when China has ascended to the role of a global superpower, the strategy has flipped. Now US leaders court Hanoi, hoping to maneuver it toward becoming a satellite against Beijing. The hope is that Vietnam can become a mechanism in the operation of preventing China from securing the South China Sea, and maintaining the potential US “oil veto” over Chinese industry.


While there is a long history of war and hatred between the people of China and Vietnam that goes back centuries, the people of Vietnam and the people of China are now both led by Marxist-Leninist Parties. Both countries have overturned capitalism, are constructing state controlled planned economies, utilizing market mechanisms.


While Vietnam continues to respond in-kind to Washington’s overtures, there are clear disagreements about this within the Communist Party. The fall of Nguyen Tan Dung, the most anti-Chinese voice within the party, seems to indicate that anti-Chinese sentiment is not universal. The Vietnamese Communist Party seems to be clashing internally when it comes to many issues, including economic policy, as well as foreign relations.


While Vietnam’s path forward is unclear, Washington’s strategy is very clear. The hope is that Vietnam and China, despite being led by ideologically similar parties, and having the same goal of eliminating poverty and raising the standard of living with socialist planned economies, can be  turned against each other. “Divide and Conquer,” the catch phrase of conquerers in ancient Rome, remains applicable in 2018, as Wall Street and London seek to keep their grip on the world.


Caleb Maupin is a political analyst and activist based in New York. He studied political science at Baldwin-Wallace College and was inspired and involved in the Occupy Wall Street movement, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Friday, March 9, 2018

Fake News Storm Clouds Gather Over Southeast Asia

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From Cambodia to Thailand American and European media companies have launched a campaign of disinformation aimed at reversing Washington’s waning influence in the region vis-à-vis not only Beijing, but the growing strength of nations the US and Europe once saw as mere geopolitical pawns.


Cambodia Expels US-Run Opposition Party and Media


In Cambodia, articles depicting the government as having trampled free speech and democracy are in direct response to Phnom Penh’s decision to disband the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) headed by Kem Sokha who now resides in jail. The media storm also follows the Cambodian government’s decision to shut down US government funded propaganda networks posing as local, independent news organisations.


This includes Voice of America and Radio Free Asia, both funded and directed out of Washington D.C., not anything resembling independent, local political interests in Cambodia itself.


A good example of this disinformation campaign comes from Voice of America Khmer itself in an article titled, “U.S. Cutting Aid to Cambodia for Recent Democratic Setbacks.” The article claims:



In its annual World Report, the rights group said the government, controlled by Prime Minister Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party for more than three decades, disbanded the main opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party, and arrested its leader on questionable treason charges. The dissolution came after a ruling the CNRP was involved in an attempt to overthrow Hun Sen’s regime. 



However, what VOA calls “questionable treason charges” are never explored further in the article. The charges stem from CNRP leader Kem Sokha himself being caught on video openly admitting to conspiring with the US government to seize power in Cambodia.


ABC Australia in its article, “Australian speech the key ‘treason’ evidence against Cambodian opposition leader,” would quote Kem Sokha during a speech he gave while in Australia, as saying:



The USA, which has assisted me, has asked me to take the model from Yugoslavia, Serbia, where they were able to change the dictator Milosevic. 


I don’t just do what I feel, I have experts, university professors in Washington DC, Montreal, Canada hired by the Americans in order to advise me on the strategy to change the leaders.



While Kem Sokha’s defenders have claimed his remarks merely meant changing the government through “democratic means” it should be noted that by virtue of admitting one has foreign assistance negates anything democratic about one’s means. Democracy is built upon self-determination while Kem Sokha’s agenda was clearly being devised and determined in Washington D.C.


It should also be noted that the US intervention Kem Sokha referred to in Serbia was admittedly undemocratic in means as well.


The New York Times in its article, “Who Really Brought Down Milosevic?,” would admit:



American assistance to Otpor and the 18 parties that ultimately ousted Milosevic is still a highly sensitive subject. But Paul B. McCarthy, an official with the Washington-based National Endowment for Democracy, is ready to divulge some details.



The article continues, stating:



”…from August 1999 the dollars started to flow to Otpor pretty significantly.” Of the almost $3 million spent by his group in Serbia since September 1998, he says, ”Otpor was certainly the largest recipient.” The money went into Otpor accounts outside Serbia. At the same time, McCarthy held a series of meetings with the movement’s leaders in Podgorica, the capital of Montenegro, and in Szeged and Budapest in Hungary. Homen, at 28 one of Otpor’s senior members, was one of McCarthy’s interlocutors. ”We had a lot of financial help from Western nongovernmental organizations,” Homen says. ”And also some Western governmental organizations.”



In today’s current climate of “Russian meddling” hysteria, should similar evidence surface that an entire opposition party was funded, organised and meeting with Russian government representatives in the manner Serbia’s or indeed, Cambodia’s opposition did with Americans, we can only imagine the repercussions.


Yet in the world of US and European “fake news,” the public is led to believe Cambodia’s government is being unreasonable in disbanding a political party openly admitting to treason and dismantling a foreign propaganda network funded directly by the US government.


“Fake News” Rewrites Thai History


Reading a recent Agence France-Presse (AFP) article regarding Cambodia’s neighbour to the west, Thailand, the public would be led to believe despotism is spreading fast across the region.


Titled, “Dozens of new political parties register in run-up to Thai poll,” it claims:



Thailand has been under army rule since a 2014 putsch toppled an elected government and installed the country’s most autocratic regime in a generation. The generals have banned all political activity and repeatedly postponed a promised return to democracy.



Just like in US and  European disinformation regarding Cambodia, what is omitted is just as important as what the article attempts to claim. The current military-led government in Thailand ousted Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of convicted criminal and fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra.


Her brother was ousted in a military coup in 2006 after a raft of corruption scandals, abuse of power and a mounting record of human rights abuses. In 2003 alone and over just 90 days, Thaksin Shinawatra would launch a “war on drugs” that would leave some 2,800 dead gunned down in extrajudicial street executions. This alone would make Thaksin Shinawatra the worst human rights abuser in contemporary Thai history.


Human Rights Watch (now also fully engaged in propaganda against the current Thai government) would report in its 2008 statement, “Thailand’s ‘war on drugs’,” that:



In February 2003, the Thai government, under then Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, launched a ‘war on drugs’, purportedly aimed at the suppression of drug trafficking and the prevention of drug use. In fact, a major outcome of this policy was arbitrary killings. In the first three months of the campaign there were some 2800 extrajudicial killings. In 2007, an official investigation found that more than half of those killed had no connection whatsoever to drugs. Apart from the thousands who lost their lives, thousands more were forced into coercive “treatment” for drug addiction.



Other US and European media organisations would report on his many other abuses, including his muzzling of Thai critics and even the assassination and disappearance of his critics.


The New York Times, for example, in its 2005 article, “Thaksin accused of ‘dirty war’ on media,” would admit:



Prime Minister Thaksin has an agenda all his own. Although he is the founder of a telecommunications empire and keen to project Thailand as a fast-modernizing part of the global economy, Thaksin has little tolerance of the criticism aired in a free press. His concentrated political power and the considerable resources of his family’s commercial empire have been combined to muzzle critics in both the broadcast and print media. 



At one point, the New York Times quotes a British writer who compared Thaksin Shinawatra’s Thailand to Moscow before the Berlin Wall fell.


AFP, if honest, would at best be able to compare the current government to Shinawatra’s previoulsy admitted autocratic streak. Yet AFP in its recent article never mentions Shinawatra’s abuses at all.


AFP’s supposed “most autocratic regime in a generation” in stark contrast to Shinawatra’s regime, has killed no one. Its political bans are aimed solely at Thaksin Shinawatra’s supporters, who with significant US funding as in Cambodia, are attempting to once again take to the streets and lobby for Shinawatra’s illegal return to power.


Those arrested by Thailand’s current government are solely associated with Thaksin Shinawatra and his still potent political machinery. These facts too are never mentioned by AFP and other US and European media organisations in their portrayal of Thailand as “autocratic.”


Western Media’s Biggest Opponent is Itself 


What’s most appalling in regards to AFP’s recent dishonesty is that those contradicting its propaganda are not representatives of the current Thai government nor “Russian trolls,” but headlines and information published in past years by AFP’s own peers across the Western media, with many of these peers now also engaged in disinformation aimed against Thailand side-by-side AFP.


For AFP and other US and European media organisations, their continued perception by the public as reputable news organisations stems solely from the public’s ignorance regarding current events and their collective short memory regarding past events. When editors at AFP can publish entire articles their own reports from years ago contradict completely, they illustrate not journalistic integrity, but contempt for the intelligence of their readership and contempt for journalism itself.


How effective the lies regarding Cambodia and Thailand spread by US and European media organisations is debatable. While the US government in particular has invested heavily in indoctrinating local youth, propping up political parties and opposition groups and assailing Southeast Asian leadership who defy US special interests, a look at Southeast Asia’s declining economic relationships with the US versus growing ties with the rest of Asia and Eurasia seem to indicate the growing din of propaganda is at least partially related to America’s loss of actual influence in the region.


Even local business leaders taking over family fortunes and deeply indoctrinated by Western “values” face a reality in which doing business with the US and Europe will put them at a disadvantage among those who have recognised and adapted to the West’s continued decline. Propaganda alone can be a useful tool to augment the designs of powerful special interests, but propaganda cannot fulfil those designs alone.


It can even be argued that Kem Sokha wouldn’t be in jail right now and the Shinawatra siblings wouldn’t be hiding abroad were Western propaganda sufficiently backed by actual power, or possessed significant power in its own right. The storm clouds of Western “fake news” are gathering over Southeast Asia, but it is a storm of sound and fury signifying nothing?


Joseph Thomas is chief editor of Thailand-based geopolitical journal, The New Atlas and contributor to the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Russia is Strengthening its Positions in Laos

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South East Asia is a thriving region with a large population and significant economic and political potential. Strengthening influence in South East Asia is an important task for the world’s leading powers. The main partner of Russia in the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) is Vietnam. However, other ASEAN countries are also important for Russian foreign policy. Russia has achieved significant success in building relations with Vietnam’s nearest neighbour, Laos.


The history of Russian-Laotian relations in many ways is similar to the history of Russia’s relations with Vietnam. The civil war in Laos from 1960-1973 was fought parallel to the war in Vietnam and was closely intertwined with it. Together they were part of the Second Indochina war, in which communist forces of the Indochina Peninsula fought against the pro-American forces. This war led to the emergence of modern Vietnam and Laos. As in Vietnam, the communist rebels of Laos who fought against the former government, supported by the United States, received substantial help from the Soviet Union. In the same way as in Vietnam, the war ended with a communist victory and the establishment in 1975 of a new state – of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (LPDR), which for many years had established close and friendly relations with the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union played a significant role in the development of the new state, strengthening its economy, industry, science and defence.


After the breakup of the USSR in 1991 relations continued though not in the same scale as during Soviet times. In 1994 LPDR and the Russian Federation signed an Agreement on the Foundation of friendly relations. The parties retained common views on crucial international issues and continued cooperation in various spheres.


Since the beginning of the 2000s Russia and Laos began to increase cooperation. It has been especially rapidly evolving in the last few years in connection with the generally increased interest of the Russian Federation in South East Asia.


In October 2011, the President of the LPDR Choummaly Sayasone arrived in Russia. He met with the then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. One result of the visit was the signing of the Declaration on strategic partnership between Russia and the Lao PDR in the Asia-Pacific region. The two countries actively cooperate within the UN, the dialogue partnership Russia-ASEAN and other international organizations.


The Russian-Laotian educational and cultural exchange is active. For example, it is known that since 1975 to the present more than 10 thousand Laotian students have received education in Soviet and Russian Universities. In November 2013, in the capital of Laos Vientiane the Russian Centre of Science and Culture opened up. In November 2015, the Centre of Russian Language began work at the Laos National University.


The volume of trade between the two countries is not very large. A record rise of 148% was recorded in 2016, when the trade turnover exceeded $40 million. But the parties are working hard to develop trade, for which they established the ad hoc intergovernmental commission on trade-economic and scientific-technical cooperation. In addition, the small volumes of Russian-Laotian trade are compensated by the importance of spheres of interaction between these countries, including energy (including nuclear power) and defence.


In September 2017 Moscow was visited by a delegation of high-ranking representatives of the LPDR. The Laotian Prime Minister Thongloun Sisoulith led the group. During the visit, the head of the government of the LPDR met with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev. The meeting was also attended by other members of the Lao delegation and the representatives of various Russian agencies. As a result a number of documents on cooperation in strategically important areas were signed.


The head of the Russian Ministry of Energy Alexander Novak and the Lao Minister of Energy Khammany Inthirath took part in the negotiations. As a result the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation and the LPDR Ministry of Energy and Mines signed a Memorandum on cooperation in the field of energy.


At the same time Russia and Laos signed an agreement on the construction of the hydroelectric power plant (HPP) ‘Sekong-5′. It has been reported that the estimated cost of the project is $800 million and the share of Russian investments in it may be about 70%. The HPP will be built on Russian technology and fitted with Russian equipment, at that. It has been reported that the Russian company ‘Power Machines’, which produces equipment for HPPs, intends to supply its products for ‘Sekong-5′ to Laos for $100 million. Electricity from the station may be exported to neighbouring Thailand.


As for nuclear energy, in April 2016, the Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom signed a Memorandum on cooperation in the field of use of atomic energy for peaceful purposes with the Ministry of Energy and Mines of the LPDR. In accordance with the document, the parties intend to cooperate in research in areas such as radiation safety and nuclear medicine. Also, the Russian nuclear scientists intend to help train Laotian specialists. The possibility of joint construction of research and industrial nuclear reactors was discussed.


In September 2017, in the framework of the aforementioned Russian-Laotian talks the new document – the “road map” of Russian-Laotian nuclear cooperation was signed in Moscow. The Russian Federation and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic are going to discuss the possibility of constructing a nuclear power plant on Laotian territory, the creation of an associated infrastructure, as well as the supply and processing of nuclear fuel.


At the same time a contract was signed for military-technical cooperation between Rosoboronexport and the Ministry of Defence of LPDR. Details of the contract have not been disclosed, however it should be noted that the defence and military technology is one of the most important areas of Russian-Laotian cooperation. For a long time the USSR was an important supplier of weapons and instructors for the armed forces of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. The degree of interaction between the Russian and Laotian militaries is still very high.


In January 2018, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu arrived in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic as part of his Asian tour, during which he also visited Myanmar and Vietnam. During a meeting with the Russian minister, the Prime Minister of Laos Thongloun Sisoulith said that everything in the armed forces of Laos is connected with Russia. He also said that Laos hopes for help from Russia in the future.


Such a statement by Thongloun Sisoulith allows us to count on the great future of Russian-Laotian cooperation in defence and Russian-Laotian relations in general. And the development of friendly relations with Laos, in turn, may allow Russia to achieve another important objective – comprehensive development of relations with ASEAN.


Dmitry Bokarev, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Southeast Asia Getting Killed by Logging and Mining

R663451231231When an airplane is approaching Singapore Changi Airport, it makes the final approach either from the direction of Peninsular Malaysia, or from the Indonesian island of Batam.


Either way, the scope for natural disaster under the wings is of monumental proportions.


All the primary forest of the Malaysian state bordering Singapore – Johor – is now gone and the tremendous sprawl of scarred land, mostly covered by palm oil plantations, is expanding far towards the horizon. The predictable plantation grid pattern is only interrupted by motorways, contained human settlements, and by few, mostly palm oil-related industrial structures.


On the Indonesian side, the Island of Batam resembles a horror apocalyptic movie: there is always some thick smoke rising towards the sky, and there are clearly visible, badly planned and terribly constructed towns and villages. Water around the island is of a dubious, frightening color. The environmental destruction is absolute. Batam was supposed to be the Indonesian answer to Singapore. Indonesia was dreaming about a modern mega city with a super airport and port, dotted with factories, research centers and shopping facilities. But the turbo-capitalist country hoped that all this would be created by the private sector. That was of course, unrealistic. What followed was an absolute disaster.


As it is now, Batam is nothing more than a series of ‘Potemkin Villages’, complete with several potholed four-lane roads that lead nowhere. As for the research: there is hardly any science even in Jakarta or Bandung, let alone here. After several attempts to ‘save face’ and to cover up this massive failure, the island has been allowed to ‘sink’ back to where it had already been for several decades: a huge whorehouse for predominantly Singaporean and Malaysian sex tourists; a cheap shopping district selling mainly counterfeit goods, a place notorious for lacking even the most basic public services.


No heads were made to roll for this monumental and thoroughly stupid set of failures. The obedient business-owned media is hardly ever critical of the Indonesian regime and its business ‘elites’. But the impact of the ‘Batam experiment’ is enormous – there is no intact nature left on the entire island.


*


What goes on in the Southern Part of Southeast Asia?


Is nature of absolutely no concern to the Malaysian and especially Indonesian governments, business conglomerates and society?


The problem here is that everything above and below the ground has been, for years and decades, viewed as a source of potential profit. It is only valued if it can be exploited, if there can be a price tag attached to it. No sentimentality, no thoughts about beauty! Here, greed has already reached insane proportions.


Like in the West, big companies in several Southeast Asian countries are now running and selecting the governments. They are also controlling the mass media, infiltrating social networks. To criticize great logging and palm oil companies in Malaysia is lethal, literally suicidal, and almost no one dares to do it. In the past, some did, and died. The same can be said about ‘illegal’ gold mining, logging and other extraction ventures in Indonesia, where much of the unsavory mining and logging enterprises are in the hands of the police, military or of government officials (the interests of all three branches are also often intertwined).


*


R66344123Places like Borneo and Sumatra are finished; almost all of their legendary wildlife habitats are devastated. Hundreds of species are gone or almost extinct. The once mighty, primary forests are squeezed into a few national parks, and even those are often being used for commercial farming, and also for palm oil plantations.


It is not just an issue of ‘disappearing beauty’ and biodiversity. Borneo (known as Kalimantan in Indonesia) used to be on par with Amazonia, functioning as the lungs of the Earth. It is the third largest island on our planet (and the largest one in Asia), and it is fully and some would now say irreversibly plundered. In Indonesia, deadly chemicals used on the palm oil plantations are killing tens of thousands of people with cancer, although you’d have to work deep in the villages to figure out the truth, as no reliable statistics exist and the issue is highly ‘sensitive’, as is everything that is horrible and sinister in this part of the world. Many rivers, including Kapuas, contain ridiculously high levels of mercury, the result of illegal but openly practiced gold mining.


To see some parts of Borneo from the air is like observing an enormous, nightmarish and rotting wreck of a ship: black scars, brown scars, and dark zigzagging open veins of what used to be, a long time ago, tremendous and proud, as well as pristine, waterways.


What has been done to Indonesian-controlled Papua by Indonesian companies and by Western multi-national mining conglomerates is indescribable. Apart from committing genocide against the local population, the entire half of this tremendous island, which used to be inhabited by hundreds of local tribes, is now being ‘exposed’, forced open, and literally raped. Of course, as an anti-Communist warrior and obedient pro-business client state, Indonesia is almost never criticized by the West. The genocides it has been committing since 1965 are either sponsored or at least supported from Washington, London and Canberra.


Malaysian and Indonesian logging and mining companies do not stop at committing crimes at home – they go far, to other Asian countries, but also deep into Oceania, places like the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea (PNG), where I witnessed on several occasions the full destruction of both nature and human cultures; a nightmare which I described in detail in my book Oceania.


*


I am relentlessly documenting what is happening to Southeast Asia in the books that I am writing (alone and with local authors), as well as in my upcoming films. I’m in the middle of producing a film about the fate of Borneo island, a place which is becoming dearer and dearer to me, the more devastated it gets.


The more I witness and the more I document, the more hopeless I often feel. It is because there seems to be almost no place which is capable of resisting the onslaught.


I am writing this essay on board Malaysian Airlines flights. The first one took me from the city of Miri (a state of Sarawak in Borneo, Malaysia) to Kuala Lumpur, the second from Kuala Lumpur to Bangkok.


After filming on several occasions in the totally violated Indonesian Kalimantan, I hoped to see something optimistic in Malaysian Sarawak; something that could be used as an inspiration for the future of the incomparably poorer and much more corrupt Indonesian part of the island. This time I drove all around the city of Miri, and then I crossed the border and drove further into Brunei. I flew inside tiny propeller planes over the jungle, or what is still left of it. I took a narrow motorized makeshift canoe.


Yes, I saw few beautiful national parks and traditional longhouses. And I was surprised to find out that the filthy rich but politically and religiously oppressive sultanate of Brunei Darussalam, with its brutal and extreme implementation of Sharia Law, unbridled consumerism and worshipped oil industry, is actually doing incomparably better job than Indonesia and even Malaysia, at least environmentally. It is at least protecting its nature, including the rainforest. Brunei’s untouched, pristine native forest begins just a few miles from the coast, from its oil wells and refineries.


But when I rented a narrow shabby longboat, deep in the interior of Sarawak, I encountered total misery and devastation. The road was great, most likely constructed precisely for moving quickly and efficiently, both timber and palm oil fruit. Several schools and medical facilities looked modern. But most of the locals do not live near the roads – they dwell, traditionally, along the rivers. And there, the situation is totally different: people residing in poor, primitive shacks, children and adults swimming in desperately polluted waterways, while stumps of trees ‘decorating’ stinking, muddy shores.


*


Some would say that Southeast Asia is not alone. In many ways, the West already ‘rearranged’ its nature decades and centuries ago. In densely populated countries like Italy or Netherlands, very little of the original nature is left today. In the United States, the original meadows and pristine grasslands gave way to commercial fields; to agricultural mass production.


What shocks in Southeast Asia is not the fact that people want to make a living out of their land. It is the brutality of the systematic destruction of majestic mountains and hills, of mighty rivers, lakes, shores as well as the irreversibility of the changes that come with cutting down almost all native rainforest, replacing it with chemically-boosted palm oil and rubber plantations.


Most of those who would be allowed to see those monstrous coal mines dotting Indonesian Borneo would be terrified. Endless sprawls of palm oil (and literally imprisoned villages, squeezed by it as in a straightjacket) could perhaps outrage even the most hardened pro-market fundamentalists, who would bother to visit from other parts of the world.


Or maybe not… The multi-national ‘mining horrors’ that are being described to me by my friends and colleagues, who are presently working in Peru, are somehow comparable. What I saw in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) shows the same spite that many Western companies and governments have for the local people.


What I find truly ‘unique’ in Southeast Asia, is the totality of destruction. The number of animal and bird species that are already gone, or are disappearing or have been simply hunted down, or the number of hopelessly polluted rivers; the forests and jungles that are stolen from the native inhabitants.


The speed is yet another shocking factor. It is all happening extremely fast. No wonder that Green Peace put Indonesia on the list of the Guinness Book of Records as the fastest destroyer of the tropical forests on Earth.


What is left of the Indonesian forests is being either logged out or is systematically burning. Thick smog travels, periodically, from Sumatra to Singapore and peninsula Malaysia, creating a health hazard, shutting down schools and tormenting people suffering from asthma and other respiratory problems.


But Indonesia is big, the fourth most populous country on Earth. It does what it wants, and it appears that it cannot be stopped. Or more precisely, its rulers and business elites are doing what they want. And, as long as it fits into the agenda of their Western handlers (and it usually does), the country is enjoying almost total impunity.


Of course, those who are suffering the most are the local people themselves, as well as countless defenseless species, be they animals, birds, fish, trees, or plants.


Soon, nothing original will be left here. Billions of dollars will be made by those very few rich, and the poor majority will be stuck with the coolie’s jobs. The plundering of the environment is creating dependency syndrome and very little advancement for the society. The money flows, but not where it is supposed to flow.


Like in the Gulf, almost nothing or very little is being invested into science, technology, the arts and creative sectors.


Ruined islands and peninsulas will keep producing ‘blood fruits’. Land owners, corrupt politicians, middlemen and traders will keep getting outrageously rich. But the great majority of people will have to get used to living with a polluted and totally unnatural environment. They’d be stuck, in fact most of them are already stuck, in some sort of depressing concentration camps surrounded by unnatural, hostile crops, and by the chemically-contaminated land.


All this will continue until who knows what terrifying and bitter end, unless, of course, the people of Southeast Asia will finally wake up, and instead of accepting this present turbo-capitalist model, begin to think and dream about the “Ecological Civilization” and other marvelous cutting-edge philosophies that are flowing out from China and other non-conformist parts of the world.


Andre Vltchek is philosopher, novelist, filmmaker and investigative journalist. He’s a creator of Vltchek’s World in Word and Images, a writer of revolutionary novel Aurora and several other books. He writes especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”

Sunday, February 25, 2018

Vietnam- Russia’s Key Ally in ASEAN

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The Socialist Republic of Vietnam was at one time one of the poorest countries in Asia. But, as a result of the transformation that the country has undergone in the last few decades, many are now of the opinion that it deserves to be considered as one of the ‘Asian tigers’ – a designation that traditionally refers to Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. It is worth noting that Russia has successfully developed its relationship with Vietnam, a member of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), in particular.


At the end of the 1980s Vietnam started introducing certain elements of free market principles into its economy, while still preserving socialistic base. This decision played a significant role in developing Vietnam’s manufacturing, energy, science, agriculture and tourism sectors, and boosted its foreign trade. These changes also led to an increase in foreign investment. This renewal of Vietnam’s economy is still continuing, making it one of the leaders in the ASEAN group.


It is worth noting that China is exercising a strong influence over the ASEAN countries, an influence which is steadily growing as a result both of the USA’s loss of influence in the region, and of China’s own ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) initiative. Vietnam is no exception: China is a major exporter into this country. Vietnam is actively involved in the OBOR initiative and is developing its transport links with China. The KunmingSingapore railway, which will link China with the ASEAN countries, runs through almost the whole of the Indochinese peninsula.


However, Vietnam has been able to resist China’s influence to a certain extent. It is doing what it can to develop a mutually beneficial working relationship with China without allowing China to influence its foreign policy or trade links. Thus, Vietnam’s key trade partners include the USA, the leading importer of Vietnamese goods. Vietnam also actively supported the now-abandoned Trans-Pacific Partnership, in which the USA and Japan were to play a leading role and which China viewed as a challenge to its economic supremacy in Asia.


One further factor in Vietnam’s success in the ASEAN group is its relationship with its neighbor Laos. The two countries’ shared border is more than 2 100 km long, and ethnic Vietnamese constitute the largest section of Laos’s population. Vietnam played a leading role in the formation of the modern nation of Laos: the Vietnamese army fought in the Laotian Civil War (1968-1973), and the two countries have had a close relationship ever since. Vietnam is now Laos’s main foreign investor (with a total investment of approximately $5 billion) and an important trade partner. A record level of over $1 billion trade between the due countries was reached as early as 2014. The two countries are continuing to expand their cooperation, not only in the economic sphere but also in relation to cultural, political and security issues.


As a matter of fact, Vietnam and Laos can be seen as an alliance within ASEAN. Since each member of ASEAN has a vote and veto right within the organization, Vietnam’s close relationship with Laos significantly increases its influence within the group.


Vietnam has a similarly close relationship with another neighbor- Cambodia. In January 2018 there was a meeting of the Organizing Committee of the Vietnam-Laos Solidarity and Friendship Year 2017 and the Vietnam-Cambodia Solidarity and Friendship Year 2017. This event was led by the Vietnam’s Foreign Minister, Phạm Bình Minh. The meeting reviewed the results of the Year, which Phạm Bình Minh held to be a success. He said that Vietnam’s links with Laos and Cambodia were continually getting stronger, and growing in all sectors.


We can conclude that Vietnam is one of the most successful and influential countries in the ASEAN group, with an active foreign policy and a real influence in both ASEAN and the Asia-Pacific region. As a result those countries wishing to develop their relationship with ASEAN would do well to start with Vietnam. That is precisely the course that Russia is following at the moment.


The good relationship between Vietnam and Russia dates back to the Second Indochina War, in which the USSR provided the Vietnamese Communists with invaluable support in their fight against South Vietnamese forces, supported by US interventionists.


In 1994, after the fall of the USSR, Vietnam and Russia signed a Treaty of Friendship. After that, they continued to develop their cooperation in economic, political and military matters.


In 2012, the two countries published a joint declaration on a comprehensive strategic partnership.


As during the Soviet period, Russia and Vietnam continue to cooperate in the military and technical sphere. Russia provides the Vietnamese army and navy with military hardware, and Vietnamese soldiers undergo training in Russia. As it is known cooperation in the military and related spheres is a sign of the high level of trust between the two countries.


Russia and Vietnam are also working together on financial matters, oil and gas extraction and nuclear power projects. Cooperation in the area of tourism is also growing healthily. In 2017, for example, Vietnam was visited by more than half a million Russian tourists.


In 2015 trade between Russia and Vietnam was approximately $3.9 billion, and since then Vietnam has been Russia’s major trade partner in ASEAN.


One major achievement in the growth of economic cooperation between Russia and Vietnam has been the Free Trade Agreement between Vietnam and the Eurasian Economic Union, a body in which Russia plays the leading role. This agreement was signed in May 2015 and came into effect in October 2016.


It was not long before the agreement began to yield fruit. The level of trade between Russia and Vietnam has recently increased considerably. In the first quarter of 2017 trade between the two countries surpassed $984 million, which was almost 24% more than the figure for the equivalent period in the previous year. In the second quarter of 2017 trade between Russia and Vietnam was in excess of $1 billion, 32% higher than the figure for the second quarter in 2016. And, finally, the figure for the third quarter of 2017 was almost $1.5 billion, 57% higher than the figure for the equivalent period in 2016.


To sum up, we can say that Vietnam is a reliable partner of Russia. The two countries have decades of friendly relations behind them, and great plans for the future. Vietnam is one of the most successful and influential ASEAN countries and, as a result, friendship with Vietnam can help Russia to develop its relations with all the other countries in the group.


Dmitry Bokarev, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Confirmed US Meddling in Thailand’s Upcoming Elections

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As the United States intensifies its accusations against Russia for alleged interference in the 2016 US Presidential Elections, the United States itself is found engaged in confirmed political interference worldwide.


This includes in Southeast Asia where Washington is attempting to rush elections in Thailand in hopes of returning their proxy Thaksin Shinawatra and his Pheu Thai Party (PTP) to power.


US efforts to rush elections have included a concerted effort to dismiss those pointing out Shinawatra’s continued influence in Thai politics, his continued leadership role over PTP and his intentions to use PTP to return to power.


However, Reuters in an article titled, “Thai ex-PM Thaksin calls for party unity ahead of promised election,” would openly admit Shinawatra, a convicted criminal and fugitive, still controlled PTP whose leadership met with him recently in Hong Kong.


The article reported:


Fugitive former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra met lawmakers from his Puea Thai Party in Hong Kong where he called for party unity ahead of an approaching general election, party members said on Monday.


Many are watching to see how Puea Thai Party performs in a vote which the military government has promised to hold in November but which could be delayed.


The necessity of repeated delays of Thai elections is very straightforward.


Thaksin Shinawatra, a convicted criminal and fugitive still seeks to contest them through PTP. Allowing a fugitive to contest elections would be illegal and any election outcome influenced by a convicted criminal and fugitive would be illegitimate. By delaying elections, the current Thai government hopes to continue diminishing Shinawatra’s unwarranted influence and wealth as well as that of his political network inside Thailand until both are no longer an obstruction to legal elections.

Yet despite this straightforward necessity to delay elections, the United States and its European partners have repeatedly demanded rushed elections. Additionally, the US and its European partners are funding myriad opposition fronts ranging from media platforms to street protests to place pressure on the current Thai government to rush elections while it is believed Shinawatra and PTP still have a chance of winning.


US Meddling


The US accuses Russia of political interference based on activities of the Internet Research Agency a recent FBI indictment insinuated was linked to the Russian government. While no actual evidence has surfaced linking the organisation to the Kremlin, the US not only possesses its own organisations for the purpose of political interference, they are openly funded by and linked directly to the US government.


In Thailand, the United States government through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) is funding media organisations like Prachatai which promote daily protests and demands for immediate elections.


Shinawatra also controls his own media organisations inside of Thailand. This includes VoiceTV supposedly founded by his son, Panthongthae Shinawatra, but clearly serving his father’s political agenda.


Supposed rights advocates like Fortify Rights (page 20, .pdf)iLaw, Thai Lawyers for Human Rights (TLHR), Cross Cultural Foundation, Thai Netizen Network and Isaan Record are also all funded by the US government via NED and have not only contributed toward attempts to manufacture dissent, but have also led small protests in the streets themselves.

Anon Nampa of US-funded TLHR has repeatedly led anti-government protests demanding elections while concurrently representing fellow protesters in court cases, calling into question the supposed impartiality his organisation claims to represent.


Protesting alongside Nampa are members of Thaksin Shinawatra’s own street front, the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) also known as red shirts. This includes UDD organiser Sombat Boonngamanong and dedicated red shirts like Yupa Saengsai.


The UDD red shirts have committed serial acts of violence and terrorism including gunning down two shopkeepers while committing widespread arson and looting in 2009, the use of some 300 heavily armed militants during protests in 2010 which led to nearly 100 deaths and also ended in widespread arson and looting, bombings including that of a Bangkok hospital and a terrorist campaign aimed at anti-Shinawatra protesters in 2014 that left nearly 30 dead.


With the reemergence of Shinawatra’s red shirts on the streets, observers have warned that violence is imminent.


Yet despite this, efforts by the Thai government to arrest leaders and prevent another round of instability and violence have been decried by the US government and its European partners as well as US-funded fronts like Prachatai, TLHR, Fortify Rights and their partners in corporate foundation funded fronts like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International.


Under the guise of “human rights,” “freedom of assembly” and “freedom of expression,” these compromised organisations representing concerted foreign meddling in Thailand’s internal political affairs are setting the conditions for another attempt at violently subverting Thailand’s stability and political order.


This reflects a similar pattern seen elsewhere around the globe where the US pressures nations into holding elections Washington is confident its proxies can win. Should those elections fail to place Washington’s proxies into power, or be delayed, the US then organises increasingly disruptive street protests, then violence, before more directly involving itself in “regime change.”


Washington’s Man in Dubai and Multipolar Thailand 


Thailand’s longstanding political crisis centres around former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted in a military coup in 2006, and who has attempted to return to power through a number of proxies including his own brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat and his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra. His sister too was removed from power by a military coup in 2014 after she attempted to amend the nation’s constitution to return her brother to power.


Thaksin Shinawatra’s administration represented the peak of US influence in Thailand.


Between 2001-2006 Shinawatra privatised Thailand’s natural resources including its oil and gas reserves for the sake of US energy giants, committed Thai troops to the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, approved of Washington’s use of Thai territory for its extraordinary rendition programme and attempted to pass without parliamentary approval a free trade agreement with Washington that would have granted American corporations and financial institutions unprecedented access and control over Thailand’s population, economy and resources.


Shinawatra and his sister are both convicted criminals. Both have fled the country, evading a 2 year and 5 year prison sentence respectively, making them fugitives as well. Thaksin Shinawatra has allegedly been based in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates while his sister is supposedly being given safe-haven in London, UK.


Since Shinawatra’s ousting from office and his multiple failed attempts to return to power, Thailand has shifted its economic and foreign policy more inward toward Asia, including fostering greater ties with China.


This includes Thailand replacing its ageing Vietnam War-era US military hardware with Chinese armaments. It also includes massive infrastructure deals signed with Beijing including high speed railways that will link major Thai cities as well as Thailand with both its Southeast Asian neighbours as well as China itself.


Thailand is also forging stronger ties with its immediate neighbours in Southeast Asia in both economic and political terms. This includes cooperating with neighbouring countries in their own battle against US political meddling. Thailand’s immediate neighbour to the east, Cambodia, recently asked for the repatriation of opposition members of the Cambodia National Rescue Party which was recently revealed to have colluded with the United States to seize power.


It is clear why the US is determined to reverse its diminishing fortunes both in Thailand, and in Asia in general.


Meddling Industrial Complex: Diminishing Returns?


US attempts to meddle in Thailand’s internal affairs depends on a small but loud and well-funded number of neoliberal Thais educated in the US and Europe and working for US and European institutions, media platforms and foreign-funded organisations. It also depends on Shinawatra’s waning support base in northeast Thailand (referred to as Isaan) where his popularity depends on constant, unsustainable populist handouts.


The diminutive protests held so far are owed to a lack of genuine support for Shinawatra. Protest leaders even admitted that without supporters brought in from Shinawatra’s political stronghold upcountry, protests would remain limited.


Pro-Shinawatra newspaper Khaosod in an article titled, “Protest Just a ‘Kick-Off.’ Activists Say,” admitted:


Sirawith [Seritiwat] said that many protesters upcountry had been blocked from traveling to the capital.


“If the authorities were really brave, then take out those blocks and we’ll fill all of Ratchadamnoen!” he said, referring to road blockades reportedly erected to prevent people from traveling to the capital.


In actuality, there were no roadblocks, only bans on political activities, including Shinawatra’s PTP’s use of charted buses to bring subsidised villagers to Bangkok as it has done in past protests. Should PTP pay villagers to board charted buses now, they may face a political ban, finally barring them from elections.


That an entire opposition movement exists in Thailand solely because of the money and directives of the United States and their proxy Thaksin Shinawatra, is an example of the blatant and extensive political interference Washington is engaged in around the globe as it accuses and attempts to punish Russia for interference and collusion in its own internal political affairs.


More than mere “influence operations” as the FBI’s indictment claims regarding Russian meddling, the US is creating entire opposition movements, from media platforms to street fronts to lawyers designated to defend members of the movement as the government arrests and charges them for sedition.


For nations like Thailand facing extensive US meddling, one possible recourse might be to take pages from Washington’s own rhetoric and punitive measures aimed at Russia, and apply them to US efforts aimed at Bangkok. Vigorous laws targeting US-funded fronts in Thailand posing as nongovernmental organisations modelled after laws the US itself has created and used against Russian media could be one example of this.


However, Bangkok may also decide a more patient and reserved approach, simply delaying elections, weathering US-manufactured dissent and stretching out protests until they expose and exhaust themselves.


Joseph Thomas is chief editor of Thailand-based geopolitical journal, The New Atlas and contributor to the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

US Color Revolution Begins in Thailand as Proxy War with China Continues

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The tentative first beginnings of a long-awaited US-backed color revolution has begun in Thailand, with a small protest of under 100 protesters in the downtown district of Thailand’s capital Bangkok.


Despite the diminutive nature of the protest, the Western media and Western-funded organizations posing as nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) transformed the event into headline news.


The protest leaders vowed to gather weekly until their demands were met. This is a thinly veiled threat, with the protests taking place precisely where previous protests organized by the same interests carried out gun battles with government troops, mass murder against counter-protesters, and committed widespread and devastating arson in the surrounding areas.


The protesters seek to overthrow Thailand’s independent institutions including its military and constitutional monarchy, and return US proxies to power, particularly billionaire and former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra and his Pheu Thai Party (PTP). Thaksin Shinawatra is a convicted criminal who fled Thailand to evade a two year jail sentence and a myriad of court cases still pending trial.


In essence, US-backed protesters seek to return a fugitive to power by proxy, a similar scenario to 2011 when Thaksin Shinawatra’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, openly ran as his proxy in elections his political party won. The 2011 campaign slogan, “Thaksin Thinks, Pheu Thai Does” openly flaunted the extralegal nature of PTP’s bid for office. After assuming power, senior PTP members would regularly leave Thailand to consort with Thaksin Shinawatra in person, further highlighting the fact a convicted criminal and fugitive was running Thailand’s government rather than his nepotist appointed sister – a fact either omitted by Western media reports, or excused.


By 2014, after over half a year of protests and the collapse of PTP’s rice subsidies it used in 2011 to lure voters, the military once again staged a coup and ousted Yingluck Shinawatra from office. Since the coup – Yingluck Shinawatra, like her brother – has been convicted of corruption and sentenced to 5 years in prison. She too has fled Thailand and joins her brother in exile as a fugitive.


Despite a political party run by convicted criminals and fugitives, Western diplomats and a collection of faux-activists they fund and organize in Bangkok demand expedient elections in which Thaksin Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai Party will still run in and will likely win. Elections have been repeatedly delayed precisely to prevent this scenario from happening, with each delay designed to give the government more time to diminish the power, wealth, and influence Shinawatra and his foreign backers still wield to grant themselves impunity from the rule of law.


While a party openly run by a fugitive contesting elections in the United States or Europe from abroad would be unthinkable, this is precisely the proposition US and European diplomats demand of Thailand to accept.


Who are the Protesters? 


The Western media has intentionally covered up the true nature of Thailand’s protesters, just as they have done throughout other US-organized regime change campaigns around the world from the so-called “Arab Spring” in which “pro-democracy activists” turned out to be members of extremist groups including the Muslim Brotherhood and even Al Qaeda, and in Ukraine where “Euromaiden” mobs were led by literal Neo-Nazi fronts, particularly Svoboda.


Admitting who Thailand’s supposedly “pro-democracy activists” are would immediately dash the nascent protest’s legitimacy against the rocks of international public opinion, which is precisely why the Western media is intentionally mischaracterizing the protests.


In 2014, the day after the military officially removed Yingluck Shinawatra from power, the US Embassy in Bangkok helped organize the creation of the Thai Lawyers for Human Rights (TLHR) front. Funded by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) – appearing on NED’s Thailand 2014 list – the front is one of several components of Washington’s regime change machinery in Thailand.


TLHR itself specializes in advocating and defending other US-funded agitators seeking regime change. TLHR members themselves have been repeatedly arrested for serial acts of subversion. In answering the question of who defends those charged by the West to defend its agitators, the answer is foreign embassy staff themselves from the US, Canada, UK, and EU.


TLHR head Sirikan “June” Charoensiri has repeatedly posed in pictures with foreign embassy staff on her way to face questioning regarding her foreign-funded activity. In many instances, foreign embassy staff will actually accompany her – and other recipients of foreign funds – to police stations in a sign of open support for their ongoing sedition.


In one picture – which included Western diplomats from multiple nations – posted by UK embassy staffer Dan Fieller, the following caption would read:



Supporting [ Sirikan Charoensiri] from [TLHR] in Thailand as she faces criminal charges for doing her job as a [human rights] lawyer.



Fieller and others, including Charoensiri herself, have refused to respond to multiple questions concerning the conflict of interest of posing as human rights lawyers while receiving foreign funding and representing foreign interests unrelated, even opposed to real human rights advocacy. This is particularly so when considering those these “human rights lawyers” are defending and the fact that they are supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra, his political party, and his street front, the so-called “red shirts” who have regularly resorted to intimidation, violence, mass murder, and systematic terrorism which included the bombing of a hospital just last year.


In addition to individual diplomats working at Western embassies in Bangkok, the UK Foreign Office itself has openly and repeatedly provided support for Charoensiri and others across its official social media accounts.


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Like in Syria and Libya where crackdowns on overt terrorism were condemned by Western governments, Western media, and Western funded fronts posing as nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), the West is hiding a violent movement and its supporters behind the thin veil of “democracy” and “human rights” advocacy.


Also funded by the US government via NED are media fronts like Prachatai, the Cross-Cultural Foundation (CrCF), and the Isaan Record. All three have repeatedly covered up their foreign funding, refusing to disclose it to their readers, at other times denying it, while still at other times attempting to dismiss any sort of conflict of interest regarding receiving foreign funds and representing foreign interests through their so-called “journalism.”


Despite denials and deflections regarding US funding, all three platforms are openly listed as NED recipients on NED’s Thailand 2011 and Thailand 2017 lists. In addition to Prachatai’s extensive NED funding, its “executive director” Chiranuch Premchaiporn is also officially an NED fellow.


And while the actual protest leaders themselves – including Sirawith Seritiwat and Jatupat “Pai Dao Din” Boonpattararaksa of the “New Democracy Movement” and Rangsiman Rome of the “Democracy Restoration Group” – have not disclosed financial support provided to them by foreign governments, they openly consort with, receive political support from, and eagerly represent the interests of foreign governments – particularly the US, Canada, the UK, and the EU.


Like June of TLHR – these protest leaders regularly pose for photographs with foreign diplomats, and regularly receive direct support from them when facing legal charges.


Sirawith Seritiwat, alongside fellow foreign-backed agitators Arnon Nampa, Than Rittiphan, Songtham Kaewpanpreuk, posed with Sandra De Waele, an EU diplomat. The official “European Union in Thailand” Facebook account published the following caption under the photo:



The head of the Political Section of the Delegation, Sandra De Waele, met with a group of students and activists, namely Songtham Kaewpanpreuk, Sirawith Seritiwat, Arnon Nampa and Than Rittiphan. Arnon and Sirawith were briefly detained on 14 February for peacefully expressing their political opinion. The European Union is strongly committed to the principle of freedom of expression and has consistently called upon the Thai authorities to respect that freedom.



The EU delegation regularly and very openly supports and collaborates with pro-Shinawatra supporters posing as “activists.” When Shinawatra’s supporters attacked anti-Shinawatra protesters in 2014 with assault rifles, hand grenades, and 40mm M-79 grenade launchers, Western diplomats were either entirely silent, or worse, attempted to defend the violence as mere expressions of “frustration.”


Jatupat Boonpattararaksa, now in prison for his role in spreading Western propaganda, regularly receives backing from foreign embassies in Bangkok demanding his release. Canadian diplomat Shawn Friele would meet and pose for pictures with Jutupat Boonpattararaksa’s parents he then posted across social media. The caption for the photo read:


Honoured to meet with parents of Pai Dao Din. Pai’s 200 plus days in detention shows challenges to rule of law and due process in Thailand. 


Rangsiman Rome, in addition to allegedly seeking “democracy,” in no coincidence attempted to pressure the current Thai government regarding rail project deals being struck with Beijing that the United States also wants delayed or entirely disrupted.


Before creating this latest collection of proxies, Western embassies including representatives from the US, openly provided support to Thaksin Shinawatra’s previous street front, the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) better known as “red shirts.” The UDD has suffered a crisis of legitimacy after committing serial acts of mass murder and terrorism. Despite having “redressed” the UDD for this latest push for regime change, many protesters can still be seen wearing their red shirts to events.


While the thin pretext this collection of faux-activists and NGOs is “democracy” and “human rights,” it is clear that they serve as an extension of Western influence in Thailand. While they demand “elections,” it is clear that they merely demand elections they are confident will return Western political proxies like Shinawatra and his PTP to power. And in addition to demanding regime change, these proxies are also openly assisting the US in attempts to disrupt growing ties between Bangkok and Beijing, serving Washington’s interests, not Thailand’s.


Why Thailand? 


US designs aimed at Thailand are part of a much larger strategy of encircling and containing China either with US-controlled proxy states, or a ring of destabilized nations incapable of providing China constructive economic, military, and political ties.


The “activism” of supposedly “pro-democracy” groups funded and/or backed by Western governments in Thailand are already openly questioning, condemning, and actively seeking to disrupt these ties.


Thailand is a pivotal Southeast Asian state with a large population and a strong economy that has been incrementally building ties with Beijing at the expense of US regional hegemony.


Once considered a stalwart ally of the United States, since removing Thaksin Shinawatra from power in a 2006 military coup, the Thai establishment has begun a sweeping shift in foreign policy, replacing its aging arsenal of US military hardware with Chinese, Russian, and European equipment, including hundreds of Chinese tanks and armored personnel carries and even Chinese naval vessels including the nation’s first acquisition of submarines.


Bangkok has inked deals with China regarding metro rail systems as well as national rail networks including high speed rail systems that will connect not only Thai cities, but connect Thailand to its neighbors to the north and south, and to China’s Yunnan province.


Thailand has also begun conducting joint military exercises with China, balancing what had been for years Washington’s exclusive domain represented by its annual Cobra Gold exercises.


Under Thaksin Shinawatra between 2001-2006, Thailand pursued a decidedly pro-US foreign policy, which included sending Thai troops to participate in the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the hosting of the US CIA’s rendition program, attempts at sealing a US-Thai free trade agreement without public or parliamentary support, and the selling off of Thailand’s nationalized natural resources to Western oil corporations.


It is clear that the United States would like to return to such an arrangement. After providing over a decade of support via Washington’s largest lobbying firms, allowing Shinawatra free travel across the US and Europe despite his criminal conviction and his status as not only a fugitive, but as a human rights violator, and the mobilization of the Western media in support of Shinawatra’s multiple bids to seize back power – it is clear that should Shinawatra or his proxies ever return to power, they have an immense debt to Wall Street, Washington, London, and Brussels to pay back.


Part of repaying the West – including for the current color revolution the US is attempting to organize in Bangkok – will be reversing growing ties with Beijing.


Future Scenarios 


It is unclear precisely how the current government will handle these protests. The government allowed the protests to go forward with the only stipulation being to avoid violence and disrupting the public.


One scenario is that elections are likely to be postponed until next year, and possibly even later than that.


The longer these protests continue, the more difficult it will be for the Western press, Western embassies, and their collection of faux-NGOs to cover up the nature of who is leading them and why. Over this period of time, the government and media can begin exposing and undermining the credibility of claims these protests are “pro-democracy” and not merely foreign funded mobs seeking to place a party run by Shinawatra – a fugitive hiding abroad – back into power.


It will also be difficult to sustain the protests without expending larger amounts of money and resources and thus exposing those financing them. While the alleged protest leaders pose as “students” and “independent activists,” it will become abundantly clear that large well-financed interests are really organizing and sponsoring them.


Ultimately, the protests can be perpetually ignored by the current government, unless protesters decide to disrupt local businesses, the public, and/or once again resort to violence as the UDD has done repeatedly throughout its existence. However, as in the past, the use of violence by supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra will simply deepen the crisis of legitimacy the opposition already suffers from and perhaps even provoke a much larger, publicly supported backlash against the protesters as was seen in 2013-2014.


In this scenario, the government may simply give the protest the time necessary to destroy itself while continuing to fulfill its pledge to delay elections as long as necessary to carry out reforms – in other words – make it impossible for Pheu Thai to win elections as long as Shinawatra – a fugitive hiding abroad – openly runs the party.


The second scenario is where elections are eventually held, and if Shinawatra’s proxies come back into power, Thailand’s institutions patiently wait for the government to once again misstep and provoke protests, and once again invite the military to intervene. With each intervention – while there carries a variety of risks – the military has successfully cut down Shinawatra’s political power and influence while exposing the role of Western interests meddling in Thailand’s internal political affairs.


In the case of either scenario, one factor remains constant – the rise of China and with it the rest of Asia. Each passing year marks a decline in US regional primacy and a more equitable balance of regional power driven by Asia’s interests, not Washington’s.


In either scenario, as long as Thailand’s independent institutions avoid a major misstep and patiently and carefully deal with Western-backed subversion, the shifting dynamics of geopolitical power in the region will eventually make Western-sponsored regime change altogether impossible.


However, with the prospect of regime change taken off the table as an effective tool of coercion used by the US, Thailand is likely to suffer greater incidents of terrorism, as seen in 2015 during the Erawan Shrine bombing carried out by Uyghur terrorists linked to NATO’s “Grey Wolves” militant organization. Western-funded faux-NGOs are already increasingly shifting their attention toward Thailand’s ongoing turmoil in its deep south, attempting to leverage the isolated conflict into a national crisis used to divide and destroy the nation just as Western interests are doing in neighboring Myanmar.


US color revolutions depend on widespread public ignorance, lightning fast chaos, and inexperienced governments unable to cope with the instability and eventually violence the US uses to pursue regime change. Thailand’s government has had plenty of time to contemplate its strategy with examples around the world of how to successfully defeat US-backed subversion, and how not to. Only time will tell how much Thailand has not just learned, but mastered in repelling this type of geopolitical attack.


Tony Cartalucci, Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer, especially for the online magazineNew Eastern Outlook”.