Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Nears All-Time High on Spike Above Daily Chart Downchannel Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) crushed shorts yesterday, smashing above the daily chart"s downchannel resistance and soaring towards the all-time high around 3000.  With yesterday"s massive rally, the negative weekly MACD crossover has been proved a false signal.  Odds are quite good that a sustainable longer term BTC/USD bottom was found last week, especially with ETH/USD also strongly rebounding this past week.  Some consolidation can be expected today with daily RSI and Stochastics tiring, although with daily MACD just having positively crossed, more upside can be expected early next week resuming BTC/USD"s attempt to regain its all-time high.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart

Ethereum (ETH/USD) rebounded strongly yesterday, reversing Wednesday"s profittaking, and reinforcing the break Tuesday above the daily chart"s downchannel resistance.  Although still vulnerable in the next several weeks to more downside (as the weekly MACD - not shown in the accompanied daily chart - has just negatively crossed this past week), odds are quite good though that the weekly MACD negative crossover has been a false signal.  The ETH/USD bounce off the 61.8% Fib retrace of the rally from the beginning of the year has been reinforced by the very powerful rebound in BTC/USD this past week back towrads its all-time high.  Further offseting ETH/USD"s negative weekly MACD crossover is the rallying or bottomish daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) Daily Chart

Click here for today"s technical analysis on Cocoa

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Raw Sugar (SB) Testing Weekly Chart Descending Wedge Resistance

Raw Sugar (ICE SB Oct17) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

Raw Sugar (SB) surged almost 3% yesterday, completing 3 days of consolidation (just above the daily chart"s downchannel resistance) and resuming a 3 week plus bounce off just below 1300.  SB is firmly above downchannel resistance (on the 4hr chart) as well, and is now testing descending wedge resistance (on the weekly chart).  Due to the significant gap between this wedge"s support and resistance, there"s a decent chance for SB to be rejected and pushed lower towards wedge support.  Nevertheless, with weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD rallying or bottomish, odds favour SB breaking above this wedge resistance.  I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Friday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).

Click here for today"s technical analysis on Cocoa, Ethereum

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Someone Will Make A $100 Million Profit If Le Pen Wins

A payout of more than 100 million euros ($106 million) may be beckoning for options investors if the German 10-year yield drops to zero in the aftermath of France’s elections.

German 10-year bunds currently yield about 0.30 percent, so a decline to zero would represent a significant increase in demand for haven assets. That would mirror moves seen after the U.K.’s Brexit vote.

As Le Pen"s odds of victory in the French elections rises, so the spread between "risky" France and "safe-haven" Germany has soared...

And as Bloomberg reports, traders have been snapping up bund options at a brisk pace to gain from the potential possibility of National Front candidate Marine Le Pen becoming president. While the latest opinion polls show she is likely to lead the first stage of voting before faltering in the second round, the political shocks of 2016 have left traders on edge about the potential for more surprises.

Having detailed the various "hedges" against a Le Pen victory earlier, one of the more popular trades set to benefit from a Le Pen victory however is seen in long-call calendar spreads on Bund Futures.

There are two parts to the trade. In the first section, the investor sells a call and a call spread expiring in April, betting that bund futures will slide going into the first round of election. In the second, the investor buys a call and a call spread betting that bund futures will rise by the end of May, covering the second round of the French vote on May 7.

The call that is sold to expire in April has a strike of 162.50, while the one bought for May has a strike of 163. The call spreads have the same strikes: 163.50 and 165.50. The maximum profit on the bought call spread is capped at 165.50, which equates to a yield of zero.

Premium of about 11 million euros has been paid on these exchange-traded options cleared through the Eurex platform, according to people familiar with the matter. If the bets play out to script, the trade will earn a gross profit of 114 million euros, leaving a net profit of about 103 million euros.

And most notably, as Bloomberg reports, the bulk of the trades are from a single investor, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly.