In prepper lore, there is a theory about how badly desperate people are likely to behave.
Many folks outside the community scoff at this theory. They believe that we have become more civilized than to utilize violent measures when hunger strikes.
But an incident in Morocco the other day showed us exactly how hungry people behave.
And it isn’t pretty.
Food was being distributed in a rural market in Sidi Boulaalam, a poor village. Women had come to the market with baskets to get food for their families, when suddenly, what could only be described as a stampede erupted.
At least 15 women died and five were wounded in a stampede during a food distribution operation on Sunday morning in rural Morocco, government officials said.
The victims were crushed as hundreds of people, mostly women, gathered to collect baskets of food at the market…
…In the aftermath of the stampede, clothes and other personal items were left scattered across the ground. (source)
That number was later updated to 40 people who were injured in the crush.
Witnesses told local media that this year’s annual food aid distribution at a local market in Sidi Boulaalam, an impoverished town with just over 8,000 inhabitants, attracted a larger crowd than usual.
“This year there were lots of people, several hundred people,” a witness who asked to remain anonymous told AFP news agency.
“People shoved, they broke down the barriers,” he said, adding that the injured had been evacuated to a hospital in Marrakesh. (source)
Here’s a video of the aftermath in this Tweet. (If it won’t play for you, go here.)
Food delivery was supposed to bring relief. Instead, it caused a deadly stampede in drought-stricken Morocco. pic.twitter.com/QslXgLZEfu
15 families were left without mothers over $16 of food. To be fair, villagers in that part of the world live on about $3 per day, but still – this shows what desperation can do.
It’s not just Morocco.
It happens somewhere in the world every day. Here are some acts of desperation that have happened just in recent months.
On St. Martin, people were “fighting on the streets” for what food was left after Hurricane Irma.
When you are desperate, the normal rules do not apply.
Every year, we get a glimpse of this kind of insanity in America
Every year, on “Black Friday” we get a glimpse of the kind of behavior that causes people to be crushed to death and assaulted. The day after Thanksgiving (ironically) people get up before daylight, stand in line, and shove their way through a crowd to get the best deals. (Stay tuned this weekend for the 2017 Black Friday Hall of Shame.)
And they aren’t even hungry.
People climb all over each other for cheap electronics. Fistfights erupt over vegetable steamers. People are ready to throw down and do battle for sale priced bath towels and televisions.
I’d hazard a guess that folks who spend time and money fighting over electronics are not the kind of people who prep. That means that these are the people who will be hungry in a long-term disaster. Look at those people, stampeding to get to a sale on things that they don’t actually need to survive. Their inhibitions are loosened because those around them are behaving in the same way.
You have to look at the psychology of this.
People can justify pretty much anything when they or their children are starving. And I can understand that to a large degree – who could stand to watch their babies suffering? But if someone can devolve to the above degree just to because everyone else is doing it, the chaos we saw above is only a tiny sample of what could come if people were truly hungry.
The line between civilization and THIS is very thin.
Desperate people do desperate things.
We need to be prepared by having the essential supplies on hand to keep us from becoming one of those desperate people in the middle of a stampede for a few days’ worth of food, but what’s more, we need to be prepared for the prospect of those desperate people. Keeping a low profile is the best defense but sometimes it’s not enough.
In a desperate situation, you have to be ready for desperate people to behave in a desperate manner. It happens in real life all the time. Somewhere on this planet, someone is desperate and they will do anything to meet their needs.
It only takes one person to start the charge in a tense scenario, and when that happens, the others will follow.
Don’t count on the rules of “civilization” to save you.
Update (12:30 pm ET): Clashes between riot police and voters in Barcelona and other towns and cities across Catalonia have left hundreds injured as police beat peaceful demonstrators with sticks and fired rubber bullets into crowds. The clashes, which have been well-documented by journalists and members of the public, are resulting in a massive public embarassment for the government in Madrid, as photos of elderly Catalonian pensioners with blood streaming down their faces have flooded the internet.
According to the Catalonian health ministry, 465 people have been injured during today"s demonstrations, including at least nine local police officers and three Civil Guard officers. Here"s a breakdown via the Guardian: 216 were hurt in Barcelona, 80 in Girona, 64 in Lleida, 53 in Terres de l’Ebre, 27 in Catalunya central and 25 in Tarragona.
Despite the crackdown, the Guardian reports that the majority of polling stations in the province have remained open. Spanish national police have closed down 46 in total (27 in Barcelona, six in Tarragona, six in Girona and seven in Lleida). The Guardia Civil have closed another 46 (14 in Barcelona, 12 in Tarragona, eight in Girona and 12 in Lleida). Catalan police, the Mossos, say they have closed 244 polling stations across Catalonia. In total, 336 polling stations have been shuttered. To put this in context, the Catalan government said more than 2,000 polling stations were set up across the province for the referendum. Meanwhile, the Spanish government said that three people, including one girl, have been arrested for civil disobedience and attacking officers.
The shocking photos have provoked widespread condemnation. In the UK, Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn urged Prime Minister Theresa May to urge Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy to end the crackdown.
I urge @Theresa_May to appeal directly to Rajoy to end police violence in Catalonia & find political solution to this constitutional crisis.
All elements of Catalonian society have pitched in to try and protect voters from brutal police tactics. This video emerged showing Catalonian firemen being beaten with sticks by the police.
We thought we had seen it all. The Spanish police battering the Catalonian Fire Service tells us this is sickening. pic.twitter.com/SwMOkm4kjG
The Mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau, has demanded that the government in Madrid put an end to the violence.
Over 460 people injured in Catalonia already. As Mayor of BCN I demand an immediate end to police charges against the defenceless population https://t.co/412z6Jacap
According to the FT, police confiscated voting papers and ballot boxes in Barcelona and elsewhere and fired rubber bullets to disperse crowds at the Ramon Llull school in Barcelona, a polling station in the city.. However, elsewhere in Catalonia, voting was carried out peacefully with the 17,000-strong local police force apparently being less interventionist in stopping the polling at certain stations. Since there is no electoral commission overseeing the referendum, little authoritative information was immediately available on the turnout for the vote and how it complied with normal standards. Police were ordered to shut down the region"s electronic vote-counting system earlier in the week, meaning it could be a while before the results start coming in.
* * *
Update (10:30 am ET): The number of people injured in clashes between pro-independence voters and riot police dispatched to the restive region by the government in Madrid has climbed to 337, including at least 11 police officers, the Daily Star reports.
* * *
Update (10 am ET): In a statement condeming the Spanish government"s efforts to stamp out the "free expression" of the Catalan people, FC Barcelona announced that it will be playing today"s match against Las Palmas, its first of the season, behind closed doors after the Professional Football League refused to postpone it.
Update (9:15 am ET): So far, Catalonian emergency services says that 91 people have been injured in violent clashes between Catalonians trying to vote in today"s "illegal" independence, according to AFP.
In scenes one would expect to see in Turkey, or some token third-world dictatorship, on Sunday morning Spanish riot police violently cracked down on the scheduled Catalan independence referendum, smashing their way into polling stations in Catalonia in a dramatic quest to shut down the banned Catalan independence referendum, as they fired rubber bullets and brutally beat peaceful people trying to vote for or against independence from a Spanish government, which many commentators this morning have called "fascist."
Images that Madrid has been fearing as police uses force to remove young and old from voting stations. @FTpic.twitter.com/F09fpak5FI
Police fired rubber bullets in central Barcelona, El Periodico newspaper reported, at the intersection of two streets as violence erupted during the vote which has thrown Spain into its worst constitutional crisis for decades.
According to Reuters, Catalan emergency services said at least 38 people were hurt as a result of police action, although as the footage below shows the final number will likely be orders of magnitude greater.
As Conflicts creator Gissur Simonarson said, "Looking at the footage from Spain. It"s clear the policy got an order to break this up by any means. They are tossing ppl like rag dolls" adding that "The Spanish government has managed to turn me from indifferent/against #CatalanReferendum to a supporter."
Looking at the footage from Spain. It"s clear the policy got an order to break this up by any means. They are tossing ppl like rag dolls.
Police burst into the polling station in a town in Girona province minutes before Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont was due to vote there. They smashed glass panels to force open the door as voters, fists in the air, sang the Catalan anthem.
Officers with riot shields jostled with hundreds of voters outside one station at a school in Barcelona as the crowd chanted “We are people of peace!” Armored vans and an ambulance were parked nearby.
The referendum has been declared illegal by Spain’s central government in Madrid, which says the constitution states the country is indivisible and has drafted in thousands of police from around Spain into Catalonia to prevent the vote.
The Catalan regional government had scheduled voting to open at 9 a.m. (0700 GMT) at around 2,300 stations, but Madrid said on Saturday it had shut more than half of them. Voting started at some sites in the region of 7.5 million people, which has its own language and culture and is an industrial hub with an economy larger than that of Portugal. Leader Puigdemont changed plans and voted at a different station after the police action, the regional government said.
As Reuters adds, people had occupied some stations with the aim of preventing police from locking them down. Organizers smuggled in ballot boxes before dawn and urged voters to use passive resistance against police. In a school used as a polling station in Barcelona, police in riot gear carried out ballot boxes while would-be voters chanted “out with the occupying forces!” and “we will vote!”.
Images that Madrid has been fearing as police uses force to remove young and old from voting stations. @FTpic.twitter.com/F09fpak5FI
The Catalan government said voters could print out ballot papers at home and lodge them at any polling station not closed down by police.
“I have got up early because my country needs me,” said Eulalia Espinal, 65, a pensioner who started queuing with around 100 others outside one polling station, a Barcelona school, in rain at about 5 a.m. “We don’t know what’s going to happen but we have to be here,” she said.
A minority of around 40 percent of Catalans support independence, polls show, although a majority want to hold a referendum on the issue. A “yes” result is likely in the referendum, given most of those who support independence are expected to cast ballots while most of those against it are not.
Furthermore, the ballot will have no legal status as it has been blocked by Spain’s Constitutional Court and Madrid has the ultimate power under its 1978 charter to suspend the regional government’s authority to rule if it declares independence. In other words, Madrid could have led the referendum pass, declared it illegal, and soon most would forget. Instead, as Simonarson adds, "I"m shocked and disgusted by how Spain has dealt with #CatalanReferendum. If there isn"t a violent response to this, I"ll be shocked."
Organizers had asked voters to turn out before dawn, hoping for large crowds to be the world’s first image of voting day.
“This is a great opportunity. I’ve waited 80 years for this,” said 92-year-old Ramon Jordana, a former taxi driver waiting to vote in Sant Pere de Torello, a town in the foothills of the Pyrenees and a pro-independence bastion. He had wrapped his wrists in Catalan flags, among 100-150 people who gathered at a local school that had been listed as a polling station, ready to block any police from entering. A tractor also stood guard, though no police had yet arrived.
As reported before, leading up to the referendum Spanish police arrested Catalan officials, seized campaigning leaflets and occupied the Catalan government’s communications hub. But Catalan leaders urged voters to turn out in a peaceful expression of democracy. Families have occupied scores of schools earmarked as voting centers, sleeping overnight in an attempt to prevent police from sealing them off.
“If I can’t vote, I want to turn out in the streets and say sincerely that we want to vote,” said independence supporter Jose Miro, a 60-year-old schools inspector. Only the Catalan police, or Mossos d‘Esquadra, had so far been monitoring polling stations. They are held in affection by Catalans, especially after they hunted down Islamists accused of staging deadly attacks in the region in August.
But national police, who have been drafted into Catalonia in their thousands, stepped in to grab ballot boxes and close stations on Sunday once it became clear the regional police was not clearing sites.
Pro-independence Puigdemont originally said that if the “yes” vote won, the Catalan government would declare independence within 48 hours, but regional leaders have since acknowledged Madrid’s crackdown has undermined the vote.
Perhaps now it is time for the liberal press to explain how sometimes democracy also dies in broad daylight. And while we await to see how this dramatic crackdown against democracy ends, here are some more shocking videos of Spain"s brutal crackdown on democracy.
With polls closing shortly, Germany voted on Sunday in the country"s federal elections, with long-serving Chancellor Angela Merkel looks certain to win a historic fourth term in office (see full preview here). Absent last minute drama, the poll is also expected to see the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) entering parliament for the first time. The only outstanding question today is which other party or parties will join the chancellor’s Christian Democrats coalition in her new government
Polls opened at 8am (06:00 GMT) and first projections are expected when the polls close at 6pm.
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier urged people to go vote. "Voting is a civic duty. Go and vote!" Steinmeier wrote in an opinion piece published in the Bild am Sonntag Sunday newspaper. "Every vote counts - your vote counts," Steinmeier doubled down, hoping to avoid the recent plunge in voter participation observed in France. "People who don"t vote allow others to decide the future of our country."
Some 61.5 million people are eligible to vote, and turnout was expected to be higher than the 71.5% of voters who turned up at the polls at the last election four years ago, however amid overcast skies and rain in much of Germany, turnout was little changed from the previous election in 2013, reaching 41.1% at 2 p.m. Berlin time, four hours before the close of voting.
Regardless of participation, the winner is certain: opinion polls suggest Merkel and her party are heading for a clear win, which would gift Merkel a historic fourth term. Merkel’s bloc, which includes her Bavarian allies in the Christian Social Union, had the support of just about 37 percent of voters in the final opinion polls during the campaign.
That’s about 15 percentage points ahead of its main challenger and current coalition partner, Martin Schulz’s Social Democrats. According to Bloomberg, four other parties -- the pro-business Free Democrats, the Greens, the anti-capitalist Left and, for the first time ever, the populist Alternative for Germany, or AfD, are poised to win seats in the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag
A fourth victory for the Chancellor would crown a remarkable comeback for Merkel from a plunge in her popularity amid the 2015-16 refugee crisis that saw 1.3 million migrants flood into Germany. Early this year, she was equal in the polls with Schulz, a fresh face in German domestic politics, but the Social Democrat’s challenge has faded in recent months and his party threatens to post its worst result since World War II. Merkel, 63 and chancellor for 12 years, has portrayed herself during the campaign as a beacon of stability in a world buffeted by crises.
"There is no other European politician who could remotely match her in terms of her longevity, her credibility among her own people," said Al Jazeera"s Laurence Lee, reporting from Berlin. "It is impossible to imagine a conservative politician or even one from the left in any other European country taking in a million refugees and surviving politically."
“Despite everyone saying this election is boring, it’s actually crucial from a geo-strategic point of view,” Judy Dempsie, a senior associate at Carnegie Europe, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. The result will determine what kind of a partner the U.S. has in Europe on issues such as North Korea, she said. “Whoever wins the election on Sunday will have to become far more involved in these major geo-strategic issues that are outside Europe.”
In terms of preferred outcomes, Merkel"s Christian Democrats (CDU) can hope for a narrow majority with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), or the environmentalist Greens, or an untried coalition with both.
Alternatively, the CDU will continue its so-called grand coalition of the biggest parties with the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has seen its support erode to a historic low over the past decade. Martin Schulz, the SPD candidate and Merkel"s main contender, is stuck in polls of about 20 percent support, and has been unable to make any headway against the CDU.
The biggest surprise, however, the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to take at least 60 parliamentary seats in the election, after having narrowly failed to clear the 5% hurdle to enter parliament in 2013. It would be the first time in 60 years that a far-right party is represented in the Bundestag. AfD has been saying it will press for Merkel to be "severely punished" for opening the door to refugees and migrants, and attacked Islam by saying it "does not belong in Germany".
The outcome of today"s election is also being closely watched in Paris, where President Emmanuel Macron is proposing measures to deepen integration in the euro area that depend on the support of Germany, Europe’s biggest economy as well as its dominant country under Merkel.
Once voting ends at 6pm local time, television exit polls will reveal if the chancellor has managed to outperform expectations as she did in the previous election in 2013. If the CDU/CSU and the FDP can get to a combined 48.5 percent or so - a level they’ve not managed in polling since late August - that would allow Merkel to reprise the business-friendly coalition she led from 2009 to 2013, according to Bloomberg.
If not, she has two alternatives: as noted above, the first is to try to add the environmentalist Greens to that coalition with the FDP, but it’s a combination previously untested at national level. The easier option might be to continue the “grand coalition” with the SPD, though that would face resistance among grassroots Social Democrats who would prefer to go into opposition. While agreement on a CDU-FDP coalition might take just a few weeks, other options could see talks dragging on for months.
Whatever the final distribution of seats, a fourth election victory for Merkel, western Europe’s most powerful political leader, would equal those for her CDU predecessors Konrad Adenauer, the first postwar chancellor, and Helmut Kohl, who oversaw German reunification in 1990. She’s said she plans to serve a full four-year term, which would equal Kohl’s record 16 years in office
With diplomatic relations between the US and Iran - a state Donald Trump has repeatedly accused of being a "state sponsor of terrorism" - alrady near rock bottom, on Sunday they took another turn for the worse after a United States citizen accused of "infiltration" in Iran was sentenced to 10 years in prison.
"This person, who was gathering information and was directly guided by America, was sentenced to 10 years in prison, but the sentence can be appealed," deputy judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejeie said in a televised press conference quoted by Reuters, adding that "rhe person was identified and arrested by the intelligence forces." The foreigner holds dual nationality of the United States and another country, he said, promising to give more details once the appeals court confirms the sentence.
As Reuters adds, it was not immediately clear whether Mohseni Ejei was referring to Nizar Zakka, a Lebanese citizen with permanent U.S. residency, who has been sentenced to 10 years in prison and a $4.2 million fine after he was found guilty of collaborating against the state, according to his U.S.-based lawyer who spoke to reporters in September.
Early in January, Tehran"s chief prosecutor said as many as 70 "spies" were serving sentences in the city"s prisons, the identities of only a handful of which have been made public. Most are thought to be Iranians who hold another passport from Europe or the United States. As we reported at the time, last October, US-Iranian business consultant Siamak Namazi and his 80-year-old father Baquer, a former UNICEF official, were given 10 years in prison for "espionage and collaboration with the American government".
Iranian-American consultant Siamak Namazi (R) is pictured with his father Baquer Namazi, via Reuters
Emboldened by Obama"s "negotiating" tactics, which as the WSJ reported last summer involved the stealthy payment of $1.7 billion all-cash payment to secure the release of four US hostages, Iran demanded the payment of "several billions of dollars" to release the Namazis:
As the Washington Free Beacon first reported, senior Iranian officials, including the country’s president, have been floating the possibility of further payments from the United States for months. Since the White House agreed to pay Tehran $1.7 billion in cash earlier this year as part of a deal bound up in the release of American hostages, Iran has captured several more U.S. citizens.
Iranian news sources close to the country’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, which has been handling prisoner swaps with the United States, reported on Tuesday that Iran expects “billions of dollars to release” those U.S. citizens still being detained.”
“We should wait and see, the U.S. will offer … several billions of dollars to release” American businessman Siamak Namazi and his father Baquer, who was abducted by Iran after the United States paid Iran the $1.7 billion, according to the country’s Mashregh News outlet, which has close ties to the IRGC’s intelligence apparatus. That amount may have been just the beginning: according to the WFB, "Future payments to Iran could reach as much as $2 billion, according to sources familiar with the matter, who said that Iran is detaining U.S. citizens in Iran’s notorious Evin prison where inmates are routinely tortured and abused."
It was not immediately clear if a similar demand would be made this time to accelerate the release of the unknown US citizen.
Meanwhile, on Sunday morning, the US has already called for the immediate release of the detained US citizens.
#BREAKING US calls for Iran"s immediate release of detained US citizens
The confetti were still littering Paris from Macron"s celebration event on Sunday night when the 39-year-old Frenchman became the youngest president in French history, and already he met with one of the biggest challenges facing his new administration: a population, mostly among the local labor unions, that is unwilling to accept any if not all of the proposed economic reforms, and made this abundantly clear on Monday by clashing in violent protests across Paris with the local riot police.
That"s not the only reason why Emmanuel Macron may find the hangover of his bitter fight with Marine Le Pen unpleasant. As The Local writes, while Macron"s supporters were jumping for joy at the Louvre and commentators all over the world were hailing Emmanuel Macron"s victory as a triumph for liberal and centrist values, a majority of French people won"t have seen it as a cause for celebration. And although Macron should be relieved, there are a few major reasons why he should stay off the Champagne this week.
Below, according to the French publication, are eight reasons why Macron has little reason for celebration as he prepares to replace Francois Hollande as the next French president.
1. He didn"t win over the majority of French people
In the second round, 56 percent of French people either abstained, cast a blank vote or voted for Le Pen. He may have won a majority of the vote, but that doesn"t make for a majority of French people. Even in first round vote, when French people "vote with their hearts" and choose the candidate they really want, Macron didn"t do spectacularly.
On April 23rd some 8.6 million people voted for Macron, out of a possible 47 million, so in reality, you could argue that only a 6th of French voters would have Macron as their first choice. But even in the first round he benefited from tactical voting.
The scores registered for Macron, Le Pen and for abstention in the second round of the French presidential election pic.twitter.com/9BCaamP5qR
2. Many of those who voted for him aren"t really behind him
Of those who did vote for him, many said were doing so simply because he wasn"t Marine Le Pen. Some 33 percent of respondents in an Ipsos poll said they voted Macron because they were won over by the political renewal they saw in him. Sixteen percent put his policies top of the list, while 8 percent said his personality was the main reason they voted for him.
However the largest chunk, 43 percent, said they were mostly voting against Le Pen.
3. Le Pen is on the move too
The far right scored a record number of votes in the first round (7.6 million) and then went and did it again in the second round, topping the 10 million mark (10.6 million to be precise). The far right are on an upward trajectory and Le Pen is hinting at a new rebranding and strategy in her post-results speech. To be fair to Macron he recognized this fact in his victory speech and vowed do everything to stop people voting for extremes. Easier said than done in a divided France suffering from unemployment.
4. En Marche! will have a hard time getting a majority
Macron will face a host of difficulties trying to gain a majority of seats in the parliamentary elections with such a newly created party. Without that he"ll have a hard time passing the laws he wants. The Republicans are gearing up to try and gain a majority in parliament, in which case Macron would be reduced to not much more than a figurehead of France"s government.
Even if En Marche! ends up the leading party, finding another group to ally with to pass reforms will be a tough task. Macron"s MP"s will face four clear blocks of opposition from Jean-Luc Melenchon"s "Unbowed" to whatever is left of the Socialist Party come June, to the Republicans and Marine Le Pen"s far right National Front.
That"s unprecedented in French politics. And on top of that, En Marche is under-financed and unlike the long established parties, it doesn"t have a long-standing coffer to dip into.
5. Parts of the country rejected him
Le Pen"s strongholds in the north east held firm, gaining 57.42 percent of the vote in Calais and 61 percent in Hénin-Beaumont. In the Aisne department, Le Pen came out on top in 619 out of 804 communes. Le Pen scored well on France"s Mediterranean coast in the south east, getting close to 50 percent in many departments, like the Var, where she gained 49 percent.
6. He could be doomed to follow in Francois Hollande"s footsteps
Macron has a lot on his shoulders, knowing that if he fails to get results on issues like unemployment during his five years he could see the same fate as Hollande, who was so unpopular in France he became the first French president not stand for a second term. Many French people already see too much of a similarity between Macron and his predecessor. Le Pen dubbed him "Hollande"s baby" or "Hollande"s heir".
Fail to deal with unemployment and he will end up having more in common with his predecessor than he would have wished.
7. Unions are already on his back
Worker"s unions in France aren"t about to let Macron forget the huge opposition against him, despite the win. Already there have been protests, with a demonstration against the election held at la Republique in Paris on Monday organised by Front Sociale, a collective of worker"s unions and associations.
The CGT"s Michael Wamen said: “He is no an elected president, he is like a president-CEO.”
If Macron wants to reform labour laws - and he said he will do by decree - then he can expect more uprisings in the months and years to come.
8. His to do list
Has an incoming president ever had so much on his to-do list from day one? Macron must try to reconcile the country, cut unemployment, restore faith in Europe, even reform the EU, boost the economy, deal with the terror threat and dangerous jihadists returning from the Middle East, find a way for France to be ease with Islam and immigration, help forge a new identity for the country so it feels at ease with its place in the world
Update: As Emmanuel Macron arrived in the courtyard of Paris"s Louvre museum to deliver his victory speech to thousands of supporters, the European Union"s anthem "Ode to Joy" played in the background.
"Tonight, France won," he said to rapturous crowds, adding that "Europe and the world are watching us." Macron said, cited by the Telegraph, that France is facing an "immense task" to rebuild European unity, fix the economy and ensure security against extremist threats.
"Our task is huge and it will require the courage of truth” he repeated. Speaking to thousands of supporters from the Louvre Museum"s courtyard, Macron said that Europe and the world are "watching us" and "waiting for us to defend the spirit of the Enlightenment, threatened in so many places."
“We have the force, the will… we will not give into fear, into lies… to the love of decline and defeat”
Macron said "everyone said it was impossible. But they didn"t know France!" and promised to work to unify France after a bruising presidential campaign and serve the country "with love."
He also vowed to the French public: "I will protect you in the fact of threats" and said “I will respect what everyone thinks and believes, because I want the unity of our country. I will serve you with humility, strength and in line with our motto: liberty, equality, fraternity… I will serve you with love.”
His wife Brigitte then came up on stage with him, and she kissed his hand and waved to the crowd.
Watch: French President-elect Macron addresses Le Pen supporters, vows to “protect” the country in acceptance speech https://t.co/ieXe16OjJZ
After an extraordinary election campaign full of twists and turns, Emmanuel Macron won a dramatic victory over Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election, taking 65% of the vote, with Le Pen collecting just over a third according to estimates from four separate French pollsters. Macron, 39, will become the youngest president of France"s Fifth Republic.
As BBG notes, the firms sampled real votes as they were being counted and weighted their results to reflect the composition of the French electorate. Their projections were all within 1 percentage point. Indeed, all early polls all show Macron with at least 65% of the vote:
Abstention in Sunday’s election was expected to hit 26%, the highest rate since 1969, reflecting a lack of enthusiasm among many voters for the choice on offer.
Macron was grateful and generous in his victory speech:
"Thank you from the bottom of my heart to all those who voted for me," begins Mr Macron in his victory speech.
"I salute my adversary Ms Le Pen, I know why people chose to vote for an extreme party. I know the doubt, the fear they expressed.
"And it is my responsibility to take on those concerns and guarantee our unity and responsibility for our country.
"From tomorrow we will modernise politics, recognise pluralism, revitalise democracy. This will be my first mission, respecting everyone."
Althought there was one small glitch...
Moments after the results were announced, Le Pen conceded to Macron in a phone call and vowed to become major force of opposition,
“The French have elected a new president and opted for continuity,” Le Pen told supporters just outside Paris. “I wish him success in the face of great challenges,” she said.
The AFP reports that it has spoken to Macron since the election results. France’s president-elect says “a new page has turned, that of hope and of restored confidence”.
The reactions to Macron’s win are coming in fast and hard: French President François Hollande, former Prime Minister Manuel Valls, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, British PM Theresa May are just some of the major political figures and leaders who have been congratulating modern France’s youngest president-elect over the past few minutes.
BELGIUM"S CHARLES MICHEL SAYS "BRAVO EMMANUEL MACRON"ON TWITTER
GERMANY"S SIGMAR GABRIEL CONGRATULATES EMMANUEL MACRON
MACRON WIN STRONG SIGN FOR UNIFIED EUROPE: GERMANY"S SEIBERT
MACRON WIN A "SIGN OF HOPE" FOR EUROPE, MOSCOVICI TWEETS
European leaders hailed Macron"s victory as a vote for European unity and a blow to political forces that had sought to build on last year"s Brexit vote to tear apart the European Union.
"Your victory is a victory for a strong united Europe and for German-French friendship," German Chancellor Angela Merkel"s spokesman Steffen Seibert tweeted to Macron shortly after the election results were published.
Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister who chairs summits of European leaders, tweeted: "Congratulations to French people for choosing Liberty, Equality and Fraternity over tyranny of fake news" - an apparent reference to misleading stories about Macron that were spread on social media in the run-up to the vote.
In a tweet from her spokesperson, British Prime Minister Theresa May warmly congratulated Macron. "France is one of our closest allies and we look forward to working with the new President on a wide range of shared priorities," she said.
Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni tweeted: "Hurrah Macron President! There is hope for Europe!"
Even President Trump endorsed Le Pen in the election, but just fired off this conciliatory tweet:
Congratulations to Emmanuel Macron on his big win today as the next President of France. I look very much forward to working with him!
Geert Wilders, who stood as a Right-wing populist in the Dutch elections but lost out to Mark Rutte, has offered his commiserations to Ms Le Pen. He went on to predict both of them would win in the next election.
As Reuters adds, Europe"s political establishment limped into 2017 fearful that the Trump and Brexit votes, fueled by anger over immigration and rising economic inequality, could be replicated on the European continent in a mega-election year in which the Dutch and Germans were also voting. As a result, the election in France, the second largest economy in the euro zone after Germany, was always seen as the litmus test for European politics. Had Le Pen won, many European officials acknowledged, it may have been the beginning of the end of the EU, Europe"s 60-year-old experiment in closer integration which delivered peace and prosperity for decades before succumbing to a series of crises over the past decade.
As the FT put it. Macron’s victory is a "phenomenal achievement" for the 39-year-old former Rothschild banker, who has never before held elected office and whose political movement En Marche! was set up barely a year ago. He becomes the youngest ever French president.
As for, Le Pen, she fell short of the 45% that she was projected to win at one point earlier in the year. But her score of 34.9% is almost twice the 18% won by her father Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002, and points to a depth of disaffection and anger towards France’s political elite that could nourish the far-right for years to come, especially if President Macron fails to deliver on his promises.
LE PEN CONCEDES DEFEAT OVER MACRON IN FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL VOTE
LE PEN SAYS SHE THANKS THE 11M FRENCH VOTERS WHO SUPPORTED HER
LE PEN SAYS TRADITIONAL PARTIES HAVE FAILED TO REPRESENT FRENCH
LE PEN CALLS FOR "ALL PATRIOTS" TO JOIN HER FOR COMING VOTE
Macron, a former government adviser and economy minister in the Hollande administration, will now turn his attention to elections for the National Assembly on June 11 and 18. He needs to build a stable majority from a party that as yet has no MPs. On Friday, he said he already had in mind his nominee for prime minister, a choice that could help him build alliances with MPs from other parties.
Shortly after the results were announced, BuzzFeed reported that LePen"s Front National is going to re-brand, and change its name after the election result. Le Pen said that "The National Front ... must deeply renew itself in order to rise to the historic opportunity and meet the French people"s expectations. I will propose to start this deep transformation of our movement in order to make a new political force."
— LEAVE.EU ???????? (@LeaveEUOfficial) May 7, 2017
* * *
MARKET REACTION
Macron"s victory is in line with expectations, which according to several banks carries a "sell the news" risk, especially in EURUSD.
In a note released earlier on Sunday, Barclays" Giovanni Paci writes that "a Macron victory, in line with current polls, in the second round of the French Presidential election, carries risk of a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” downside move in EURUSD, given the current long EUR pre-positioning." On the other hand, "this outcome would also likely bring temporary relief and a further reduction in volatility." Because a VIX of 10 is high?
Some further details below:
Macron victory in line with polls carries risk of a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” downside move in EURUSD, given the current long EUR pre-positioning. The EUR political-risk premium was reduced significantly by the “benign” first round outcome, which supported a c.2% EUR NEER appreciation. EURUSD should depreciate mildly over the remainder of this year, as monetary policy divergence and some residual political-risk premia weigh on the common currency.
With market attention to the ‘Politics of Rage’ likely to fade after the French election, and no other clear themes visible, we see risk of a significant decline in market volatility. Implied volatility is low across asset classes (Figure 1) and, for most major currencies, realized and implied volatility measures are well below their yearly averages (Figure 2). Although we do not believe the Politics of Rage has yet crested, the outcome of the Dutch elections and the expected victory of Emmanuel Macron in France, are likely to assuage market fear of radical political change, at least for the near term, as no other clear risk events are visible. Risk-taking began to deteriorate earlier this year as ambiguity brought about by the ‘Politics of Rage’ dampened strategic risk taking. However, the resolution of near-term risks, with no other clear themes or major risk events to trade tactically, is likely to take activity and volatility further down.
... the election of Mr. Macron as president, combined with a potential hung parliament would leave in place long-held concern about reform, but remove acute risks that provided shorter-term trading opportunities. As long as short-term events bring about temporary relief and long-term risks, volatility is likely to remain depressed, but prone to sudden bursts.
* * *
Deutsche Bank"s director of FX strategy, Sebastien Galy, has chimed in with a similar tak saying that while EUR/USD will likely gap higher, looking to clean out the stop losses, before eventually consolidating lower. He adds that equity flows are likely to increase into the euro zone, but that will take time as much is already priced in.
* * *
Expect more sellside commentary as analysts react to the initial results.
Here is another live feed, this time from the Telegraph:
Two days after Syria claimed it had shot down an Israel jet over its territory on Friday morning, an incident Israel denied even if it admitted violating Syria"s sovereign airspace by engaging in an air raid near Palmyra, the Israeli defense minister threatened to destroy Syrian air defenses after they shot (but allegedly did not down) at Israeli warplanes, which violated Syrian airspace and bombed targets on Syrian soil.
“Next time, if the Syrian aerial defense apparatus acts against our planes, we will destroy it,” Avigdor Lieberman told Israeli Public Radio on Sunday, in a statement which seemed to lend credence to the Syrian contention that it had taken down an Israel jet.
#BREAKING Israeli minister threatens to destroy Syrian air defence systems
It was not exactly clear why Israel was so offended by Syria "acting against" its planes which were located above Syrian airspace at the time of shooting. In any case he warned that “we won"t hesitate. Israel"s security is above everything else; there will be no compromise.”
An Israeli F-15 fighter jet
The minister was referring to the previously reported morning raid of the Israeli Air Force, the latest of several reported over the past few years, in which Israel claimed it targeted weapons bound for the Lebanese militant movement Hezbollah. Israel says it has to protect itself from advanced weapons which the militants try to obtain from the Syrian government. Syria shot surface-to-air S-200 missiles at the Israeli planes as they were flying back from the night mission. As noted above, Damascus claims it shot down one of the planes, although Israel still denies.
The Israeli media said one of the Syrian missiles was intercepted by Israel’s Arrow air defense system. According to RT, it was the first time Israel officials have confirmed combat use of the advanced anti-missiles, which are originally meant to intercept heavy long-range ballistic missiles. The Israeli military is investigating whether the decision to fire Arrow interceptors against the Syrian anti-aircraft missiles was justified, according to Haaretz.
The former prime minister and defense minister, Ehud Barak, said Saturday that the involvement of the system forced Israel to acknowledge cross-border military activity. “It could be that with more thorough thought, it wasn’t worth firing,” Barak said at a community lecture in Be’er Sheva. “We have usually tended to reserve what would be called ‘room for denial’ for Syrian President [Bashar] Assad,” he added.
While Israeli acknowledgment of an intervention in Syria is rare, it is not unprecedented. Last April, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed for the first time that an attack on dozens of Hezbollah targets in Syria was indeed conducted by Israeli warplanes, as speculated by the media.
And, perhaps to give Syria just the opportunity to "provoke" it, on Monday morning, according to several media reports Israel has again bombed a Hezbollah convoy in Syria. It was unclear as of publication time if Syria had retaliated.
