A Golden Opportunity in 2018 Awaits as Distrust in Our Fiat Based System Accelerates

Written by Nathan McDonald, Sprott Money News

Americans prepare to sit down, feast and give thanks this weekend for what they have, who they have and the good blessing that they have enjoyed over the past year.

This comes amidst a time period when their email boxes are being flooded with Black Friday specials for trinkets, bobbles and cosmetic goods that will provide a temporary reprieve from the more realistic situation that the vast majority are experiencing: growing debt levels and increased uncertainty.

The fact is, the stock market continues to tick higher, though not to the benefit of the mass majority of individuals who have simply not been able to partake in the "recovery" after the decimation they experienced via the 2008 crisis - a crisis that I contend has simply been papered over and one that will eventually once again rear its ugly head.

At the same time as new record highs in the stock market, we see that debt levels are also at all time highs, breaking new records and reaffirming my previously mentioned belief that the rot within our system continues to persist, silently behind the scenes. It appears that as a mass, we have learned nothing.

I am not trying to be pessimistic, but the fact is, people are rushing out to buy goods this weekend that they don"t need, can"t afford and ultimately that won"t make them any happier.

The only saving grace is the fact that a growing trend continues to manifest. This trend is one that cannot be ignored at this point and one that has central Banksters privately meeting and discussing what they are going to do about it.

This is the flood of fiat money that continues to flow out of the economy and into what people perceive is a more viable, safe place to park their funds. This can be witnessed via the monumental amount of money that continues to move into bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies. This is a trend that has amazed many as the charts continue to go parabolic.

Perhaps these people are misguided, perhaps they are wrong and bitcoin will crash overnight; perhaps they are correct and we are going through a once in a lifetime change. Who knows - I certainty don"t.

What I do know however is that bitcoin is not alone in this trend. Art, collectibles, and other items that people perceive to have value continue to tick higher, setting new records as they reach new heights. The fact is, people can feel it in their bones - they know something is wrong with the system and they are attempting to park their money in items that cannot be simply printed out of thin air.

Yet, gold and silver continue to stagnate, floundering as money continues to be diverted away from this sector and into cryptocurrencies or whatever the latest, hottest trend is.

Still, I strongly believe that this is not going to last. I have followed the cryptocurrency community long before it was considered mainstream or trendy. The unknown truth is that there is a strong affinity for precious metals within that class of investors. They constantly compare bitcoin to gold and Litecoin to silver. They respect precious metals, dispute whether they believe it is better or worse than their cherished asset.

Any hiccup, any crash, any disturbance within the crypto space that causes this trend to reverse is going to cause a massive amount of funds to move back into the precious metals space, as people take a portion of their phenomenal gains and park it in an asset class that they believe to be a safe space, i.e. gold and silver.

Yet, cryptos do not need to crash for this to happen (although I

believe it would cause greater results) - not at all. People are finicky creatures and even though bitcoin is incredibly divisible, therefore making the current price irrelevant, this is simply not how people think.

Many will begin to believe that they have "missed the boat" or that the price is "simply too high now". This is exactly why stocks split when the nominal price becomes too high.

This leads to a golden scenario. I believe that the potential for gold and silver to sharply increase throughout 2018 is incredibly high. I believe that this will be remembered as a turning point within the precious metals markets and thus one of the greatest opportunities of our modern times.

28 Reasons to Buy Physical Gold

Submitted by BullionStar.com

Throughout human history, gold has constantly emerged as an unparalleled form of savings, investment and wealth preservation. Due to its unique characteristics and features, gold has inherent value and cannot be debased. When holding physical gold, there is no counterparty risk or default risk. Wealth in the form of gold can also be held and stored anonymously.

From its ability to retain its purchasing power over time, to its safe haven status in times of financial turmoil, to gold"s ability to diversify investment risk, there are many and varied reasons to own physical gold in the form of investment grade gold bars and gold coins.

1. Tangible with Inherent Value

Physical gold is real and tangible. It is indestructible, impossible to create artificially, and difficult to counterfeit. Mining physical gold is arduous and costly. Physical gold therefore has inherent value and worth. In contrast, paper money doesn"t have any inherent value.

2. No Counterparty Risk

Physical gold has no counterparty risk. When you hold and own gold bars and gold coins outright, there is no counterparty. In contrast, paper gold (gold futures, gold certificates, gold-backed ETFs) all involve counterparty risk.

3. Scarcity

Gold deposits are relatively scarce across the world and difficult to mine and extract. New supply of physical gold is therefore limited and explains why gold is a precious metal. Gold"s scarcity reinforces it"s inherent value.

4. Cannot be Debased

Because of its physical characteristics and features, gold cannot be debased, and gold supply is immune to political meddling. Compare this to fiat money supplies which are constantly being debased and destroyed via deficit government spending, central bank quantitative easing and financial system bailouts. On a survivorship scale, gold has far outlived all fiat currencies by thousands of years.

5. Store of Value

Gold is a preeminent store of value. Physical gold, in the form of gold bars or gold coins, retains its purchasing power over long periods of time despite general increases in the price of goods and services.

In contrast, fiat currencies such as the US Dollar are not stores of value and their purchasing power consistently becomes eroded by inflation or the general increase in the price level. Fiat currencies have a long history of either becoming totally worthless and going out of circulation, or else becoming completely debased, such as the US dollar, while remaining in circulation.

Since the creation of the US Federal Reserve in 1913, the US dollar has lost over 98% of its value relative to gold, i.e. the US dollar has lost over 98% of its purchasing power relative to gold.

Since 1913, the US Dollar has lost more than 98% of its value, while gold has retained its value.

6. Long- Term Inflation Hedge

Physical gold’s ability to retain its purchasing power over time is sometimes referred to as the “Golden Constant”. This reflects the fact that gold’s purchasing power is constant over long periods of time. This ‘constant’ exists because the gold price adjusts to changes in inflation and future inflation expectations. Therefore, physical gold is a long-term hedge against inflation.

7. A 6000 Year History

Gold has played a central role in society for thousands of years from the early civilizations of ancient Egypt, right up to the contemporary era. Gold has facilitated international trade throughout history, has been directly responsible for the economic expansion and prosperity of numerous civilizations throughout history, and has even been, due to gold exploration and mining, the direct catalyst for the growth of some of today’s best-known cities such as San Francisco, Johannesburg, and Sydney.

8. A 2500 Year Track Record as Money

Because of its ability to retain value and act as a store of value, physical gold has been used as money for over 2500 years. Gold coins were first issued in the Lydian civilization in what is now modern Turkey. Subsequently gold was used as a stable form of money in Persia, ancient Greece, ancient Rome, the Spanish and Portuguese Empires, the British Empire, and right through to the various international gold standards of the 20th century.

It was only in August 1971 that the US famously suspended the convertibility of the US dollar into gold, a move which triggered the debt fueled expansion that is still having repercussions within today’s monetary system.

To put gold’s monetary importance into perspective, for 97% of the last 2500 years, gold has been chosen by numerous sophisticated civilizations as the form of money par excellence and an anchor of stability, precisely because of its ability to retain its value.

9. Safe Haven

Physical gold acts as a safe haven asset in times of conflict, war and geopolitical turmoil. During the financial market stresses and heightened uncertainties caused by wars, conflicts and turmoil, the counterparty risk of most financial assets spikes. But since physical gold does not have any counterparty risk, investors rush to gold during these periods so as to preserve their wealth. This is analogous to sheltering in a safe harbor. Gold can thus be seen as a form of financial insurance against catastrophe.

10. Portable Anonymous Wealth

Gold bars and gold coins combine high value with high portability. In times of conflict and war, gold bars and gold coins are ideal for transporting wealth and savings across borders and within conflict zones in an anonymous fashion.

11. Universal Acceptance

Gold is universally accepted as money across the world, with the highly liquid global market always providing ample sales opportunities for gold bars and gold coins. This means that whichever city you are in across the world, you can always sell or trade your gold bars and gold coins.

12. Emergency Money

Military personnel are often issued with gold coins that they carry with them in conflicts zones as a form of emergency universal money. For example, the British Ministry of Defense often issues RAF pilots and SAS soldiers with Gold Sovereign coins to carry on their persons during combat missions and activities, such as in the Middle East.

Worthless paper Currencies vs the Inherent Value of Owning Physical Gold

13. Outside the Banking System

In the current era of global financial repression, physical gold is one of the few assets outside the financial system. Gold is not issued by any monetary authority or central bank or government. Because its not issued by any government or central bank, gold is independent of the banking system. Fully owned physical gold, if stored in a non-bank vault or held in one’s possession, is outside the banking system.

14. No Default Risk

Unlike a government bond, there is also no default risk with gold because it is not issued by any authority that could default. Gold bars and gold coins are no one else’s liability. Physical gold cannot go bankrupt or become insolvent. Therefore, there is no need to have to trust any other party when holding physical gold.

15. Portfolio Diversification

Adding an investment in gold to an existing portfolio of other investment assets such as stocks and bonds, reduces the volatility (risk) of the investment portfolio and can increase portfolio returns. This is because the gold price has a low to negative correlation with the prices of most other financial assets, because gold is less influenced by business cycles and macro-economic cycles than most other assets.

Numerous empirical studies by financial academics, as well as industry bodies, such as the World Gold Council, have validated gold’s role as a strategic portfolio diversifier. Optimal allocations to gold in multi-asset portfolios have found to be in the 5% to 10% range.

16. Currency Hedge

There is generally an inverse relationship between the gold price and the US dollar, in that the gold price generally moves in opposite directions to the US dollar. Therefore, holding gold can act as a currency hedge of the US dollar, and help manage the currency risk of portfolios denominated in US dollars.

17. Gold"s Metallic Properties

Gold has many and varied metallic properties. These properties provide gold with many technological and commercial applications and uses, which in turn contribute as additional demand drivers in addition to the investment and monetary demand for gold.

Gold is highly ductile (can be drawn into very thin wire). It is also highly malleable (can be hammered and flattened into very thin film). Gold is a very good conductor of electricity and heat. Gold does not corrode or tarnish. It is chemically unreactive and non-toxic to the human body. Gold has a high luster and shine, and an attractive yellow glow.

These properties explain gold’s use in electrical and electronic wiring and circuits (e.g. computers and internet switches), its use in the medical and dental fields, gold’s use in solar panels, space travel, and gold’s traditional uses in jewelry, decoration, and ornamentation. With new technological uses being found for gold all the time, gold"s demand pattern is diversified and underpinned by its commercial importance.

18. Physical gold - A tiny fraction of Paper Gold

The London wholesale gold market and the US-based COMEX gold futures market generate huge trading volumes of paper gold that dwarf the size of the physical gold market. However, these markets only trade derivatives on gold (futures and unallocated positions), representing fractionally-backed and unbacked claims on gold that could never be convertible into physical gold by claim holders.

In a scenario under which these paper gold markets became unsustainable, the prices of paper gold and physical gold would diverge, with the paper gold markets ceasing to trade and collapsing, and only physical gold retaining any real value. Physical gold is therefore an insurance against the collapse of the world"s vast paper gold markets.

19. By Definition - Not an ETF

Physical gold Provides all the benefits that gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) do not. ETFs provide exposure to the gold price, not to gold. Holding physical gold is by definition direct exposure to gold. With most gold-backed ETFs, you cannot convert the units into gold and take delivery of the gold, and in many cases, the locations of the vaults are not even known. If holding physical allocated gold bars or gold coins in a vault, such as with BullionStar in Singapore, you can always take delivery.

Gold ETFs have many counterparty risks since there are many moving parts in an ETF such as a trustee, a custodian, and a sponsor / issuer. Physical gold has no counterparty risks. When you hold a gold-backed ETF, the quantity of gold backing the ETF declines over time due to management fees being offset against the gold holdings. When you hold physical gold, you always remain with 100% of the actual gold you first purchased. There is no erosion of holdings.

20. Anonymous Storage

Gold can be stored anonymously, either in your possession within your house or property, or in a vault in a jurisdiction, such as Singapore, that has no reporting requirements. Since gold has a high value to weight ratio, storing gold does not take up much space.

21. Independent of Internet

Owning physical gold is not reliant on having internet access and access to electronic wallets and cryptocurrency exchanges. Furthermore, gold cannot be stolen by hacking an electronic address or by transferring or deleting a number in a computer.

Owning Gold Coins and Gold Bars Provides Many and Varied Benefits

22. Real Gold is Measured by Weight

Physical gold is measured in weight, not through a number set by a politician or central banker. When you buy a 1 Kilo gold bar, or a 10 Tola gold bar, or a 1 troy ounce gold coin, or a 5 Tael gold bar, you will always have that gold bar or gold coin, irrespective of the fluctuations of fiat currencies.

While thinking of the value of physical gold in terms of a fiat currency might be convenient, a better way is to think of a gold holding in terms of weight.

23. Coins and Bars - Build a Collection

Buying investment gold bars and bullion gold coins allows you to build a diverse collection of bars and coins that are at the same time a fascinating pastime and a form of investment and saving.

Bullion gold coins from the world’s major mints are beautifully illustrated and often have a connection to history. Investment gold bars from the world"s major gold refineries are distinctively different from each other and you can vary a collection by cast or minted bars, and a selection of weights.

24. Physical Gold Feels like Real Wealth

Physical gold feels like real wealth. When you hold ten 1 ounce gold coins in your hand, you intrinsically know that you are holding real wealth, gold that is scarce and that has been costly to produce.

25. Gold as Loan Collateral

Gold can be used as loan collateral. Since gold is highly liquid and valuable, it can be lent and used as a form of financing, and as a way of generating interest. The wholesale gold lending market between central banks and bullion banks is highly active. Likewise, retail gold holders can also in various ways lend their gold to receive financing or interest, with new innovations to do this arising all the time.

26. Central Banks hold Gold

Although the world’s central banks like to downplay the importance of gold because it competes with their fiat currencies, most central banks continue to hold substantial amounts of physical gold bars and gold coins in vaults around the world. They hold this gold as a reserve asset on their balance sheets, and they value this gold at market prices.

Like private gold investors, central banks hold physical gold because it is highly liquid, it lacks counterparty risk, and because gold is a safe haven or ‘war chest’ asset that acts as a financial insurance in times of crisis. Central banks also hold gold for the unpublished reason that if and when gold re-emerges at the centre of a new monetary system, these very same central banks will not be caught out having no gold.

27. Gold for Gifting

Gold coins and small gold bars make great gifts and presents, and gold is a traditional form of gifting in many societies around the world. Gifting a gold coin or small gold bar to mark a birth, or anniversary, or a wedding or other special occasion, is an ideal present that will be highly appreciated by the recipient.

28. Gold for Inheritance

Gold bars and gold coins are a great form of inheritance for your children and family members. Because gold is real, tangible, valuable, and has a highly liquid trading market, it is an ideal asset for inter-generational wealth transfers. Because physical gold is fabricated in convenient weight denominations, such as troy ounces and kilograms, it can be distributed equitably among recipients, and specified equitably in wills and trusts.

This article originally appeared on the BullionStar.com website under the same title "28 Reasons to Buy Physical Gold".

Ron Paul: We Are Reaching A Point Of No Return

Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,

Dr. Ron Paul has long been a leading voice for limited constitutional government, low taxes, free markets, sound money, civil liberty, and non-interventionist foreign policies.

Dr. Paul served as the US Representative for Texas’s 27^th Congressional District from 1976 to 1985. He then represented the 14^th district from 1977 to 2013. He ran for the office of US President, three times, most recently in the 2012 Republican primaries. Dr. Paul also had a long career as an OBGYN over which he delivered more than 4,000 babies.

The recent author of the book, The Revolution At Ten Years, Dr. Paul looks ahead at the future of the movement he helped launch -- tackling central planning, the military empire, cultural Marxism, the surveillance state, the deep state, and the real threats from these institutions to our civil liberties.

As a multi-term member of Congress, Dr. Paul knows the players and policies responsible for the growing unfairness and inequality now rampant in society. He does not expect the offenders will reform willingly. Instead, he predicts the system will collapse under its own unsustainability -- offering a rare and valuable chance then for more sound and fair solutions to prevail:

Wealth doesn’t come from the creation of money, especially a fiat system. With too much fiat money and all this credit, eventually the economy becomes exhausted and engulfed with debt and mal-investments. The treatment for this is a correction; you have to allow the debt to be liquidated. You have to get rid of the mal-investment and you have and to allow real economic growth to start all over again. But that wasn’t permitted in ’08 and ’09, which is why there’s been stagnation. It"s hard to believe that today we have negative interest rates -- real rates are negative and people still aren’t grabbing them up! A shortage of money isn"t the problem here; rather, it’s a shortage of understanding market conditions.

 

We’re over-taxed and over-regulated. This is resulting in a destructive system that has divided the country into two groups: those who haven’t recovered from the Great Financial Crisis versus those who are getting very rich because they"re on the receiving end of the new money created by the Federal Reserve. The people who get to create the credit get to distribute the credit, which always results in a situation where money becomes unfairly distributed, as its allocation is no longer dependent on productivity.

 

We haven’t changed anything. We still have a system where we encourage people to borrow money, that debt doesn’t matter, and we’re not going to cut taxes, and we’re not even going to admit that we spend too much money. Nobody can cut anything -- that’s why Washington is at a stalemate. A lot of people don’t like Obamacare, but there’s enough people who do like it. Once it has been implemented, it’s very hard to get rid of a program. I also don"t think that the proposed tax reforms will actually lower taxes. They never do.  Our politicians won’t admit where the real problem lies: overspending, monetizing the debt, taking over the whole world through the monetary system, financing wars, financing welfare and the military industrial complex. It’s going to continue until this whole thing comes apart.

 

The eventual event will be driven by the marketplace. When it comes undone, they will no longer be able to prop things up just by printing more money. If we have a sharp downturn and they decide, "Well, QE didn’t work because it wasn’t enough." and they double QE, there’ll be a point of no return and all confidence will be lost. We’ll dump the dollar. Interest rates will go up instead of down. That will make all the difference in the world because it will be unsustainable and create real challenges for the dollar remaining the reserve currency. When the dollar no longer serves as the world"s key currency, that’s when the ballgame will be over.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris" interview with Dr. Ron Paul (29m:56s).

Deutsche Asks A Stunning Question: "Is This The Beginning Of The End Of Fiat Money?"

One month ago, Deutsche Bank"s unorthodox credit analyst, Jim Reid published a phenomenal report, one which just a few years ago would have been anathema, as it dealt with two formerly taboo topics: is a financial crisis coming (yes), and what are the catalysts that have led the world to its current pre-crisis state, to which Reid had three simple answers: central banks, financial bubbles and record amounts of debt. 

Just as striking was Reid"s nuanced observation that it was the modern fiat system itself that has encouraged and perpetuated the current boom-bust cycle, and was itself in jeopardy when the next crash hits:

We think the final break with precious metal currency systems from the early 1970s (after centuries of adhering to such regimes) and to a fiat currency world has encouraged budget deficits, rising debts, huge credit creation, ultra loose monetary policy, global build-up of imbalances, financial deregulation and more unstable markets.

 

The various breaks with gold based currencies over the last century or so has correlated well with our financial shocks/crises indicator. It shows that you are more likely to see crises/shocks when we break from hard currency systems. Some of the devaluation to Gold has been mindboggling over the last 100 years.

The implications of this allegation were tremendous, especially coming from a reputable professional who works in a company which only exists thanks to the current fiat regime: after all, much has been said about Deutsche Bank"s tens of trillions  in gross liabilities, mostly in the form of various rate derivatives, backed by hundreds of billions in deposits and, implicitly, the backstop of the German government as Deutsche Bank discovered the hard way one year ago.

However, what shocked most readers was that at its core, Reid"s report was dead accurate, and as Reid writes in a follow up report published this morning, it is the topic of the fiat system itself as potentially the weakest link in any future crisis that generated the most debate.

In the report titled, "The Start of the End of Fiat Money?" Reid writes that "as we road-showed the document a theme that had minor billing in the report started to gain more and more prominence in the discussions and as such we wanted to expand upon it in this short follow-up thematic note. The basic premise is that a fiat currency system - the likes of which we’ve had since 1971 - is inherently unstable and prone to high inflation all other things being equal. However, for the current system to have survived this long perhaps we’ve needed a huge offsetting disinflationary shock. We think that since around 1980 we’ve had such a force and there is evidence that this influence is now slowly reversing."

And here comes the shocking punchline: not only does Reid concede that the fiat system "may be seriously tested over the coming decade and ultimately we may need to find an alternative" but that one such alternative is none other than cryptocurrencues, i.e. bitcoin, ethereum and so on. Which, while it may be a surprise to institutional investors appears to have been all too obvious to buyers of cryptocurrencies.

If we’re correct, the fiat currency system may be seriously tested over the coming decade and ultimately we may need to find an alternative. This is not necessarily a story for the next few months or quarters but we think the trend reversal is already slowly in place. Maybe we can explore future alternatives to the current monetary system in a second part sometime in the future. Cryptocurriencies are all the rage at the moment and are as much about blockchain as anything else but there could be an increasing desire for alternative medians of exchange in the years to come if we are correct. 

Below we excerpt some of the key observations from Reid"s note:

* * *

The Future of Money Part 1 - The Start of the End of Fiat Money?

Background

In “The Next Financial Crisis” we suggested how China"s fairly sudden integration into the global economy at the end of the 1970s and a very favourable once-in-alifetime shift in demographics from around 1980 onwards could have contributed to the modern boom/bust culture that has made financial crises more regular in recent decades. The argument is based around a view that a positive labour supply shock from China and developed countries" demographics between 1980-2015 has allowed inflation to be controlled externally as the surge in the global labour supply at a time of rapid globalisation has suppressed wages. With inflation controlled externally it has allowed governments and central banks the luxury of responding to every crisis and shock with more leverage, loose policy and latterly more and more money printing. Its not usually this easy as inflation would have normally increased with such stimulus and credit creation.

It could be argued that this external disinflation shock has perhaps ‘saved’ fiat currencies after the runaway inflation of the 1970s in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of the Bretton Woods quasi Gold Standard from 1971 onwards. If this theory is correct then any reversals in this demographic super cycle could spell problems for the fiat currency system. Under this scenario inflation would pick up externally due to working age populations no longer rising and labour pricing power returning. Central banks and governments which have ‘dined out’ on the 35 year secular, structural decline in inflation are not able to prevent it rising as raising interest rates to suitable levels would risk serious economic contraction given the huge debt burden economies face. As such they are forced to prioritise low interest rates and nominal growth over inflation control which could herald in the beginning of the end of the global fiat currency system that begun with the abandonment of Bretton Woods back in 1971.

Fiat currencies and inflation

For virtually all of financial history up to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, most currencies were backed by precious metals for the vast majority of times. Over the preceding century or so these systems periodically broke down for many countries due to wars and notably during the Depression years of the 1930s. However, countries generally reverted to some kind of precious metal fix after experiencing high inflation in the years where they suspended membership. Figure 1 shows our global median inflation index back over 800 years and then isolates the period post 1900 where inflation exploded relative to long-term history

Figure 2 then shows this in year-on-year terms and as can be seen, in the 700 years before the twentieth century inflation and deflation were near equal bedfellows with only a gradual upward creep in inflation as new precious metals were mined or governments periodically punched holes in existing coins and thus slightly debasing the currency.

As someone that has studied economic history it always amuses me to hear that we live in times of extremely low inflation when history would suggest these are relatively high inflation times. Indeed a look at the right hand chart of Figure 2 shows we haven’t had a single year of negative (median) global inflation since 1933. What has happened though is that we saw a 35 year disinflationary period start in 1980 that took inflation down from the extremes at the start of that decade to what we think will be the secular lows around the middle of this decade.

Inflation since 1971 – a loss of control and then a positive disinflationary shock

In the first decade of global fiat currencies post 1971, global inflation saw one of its biggest climbs in history. Although the oil shocks were partly to blame, the fact that the shackles of the Bretton Woods system were removed and countries were freer to borrow and find ways of liberalising finance and credit surely contributed to the inflation surge. Gold saw an annualised nominal return of 32.2% p.a. in the 1970s way above the long term return of 1.97% p.a. from 1800.

However a miracle occurred post 1980 which many have attributed to the Volker Fed taming the inflationary dragon. Clearly their tighter policies helped but was the global structural story providing phenomenal disinflation  tailwinds from this point and is it now slowly reversing?

China and Developed Country demographics to the rescue

We think that the effective global labour force exploded from around 1980 due to natural global demographics and China opening up its economy to the outside world at the end of the 1970s. Figure 3 shows the 15-64 year olds  (working age population proxy) in the More Developed Regions + China where the second bars repeat the exercise with China zeroed before 1980 to reflect its virtually closed economy before this point and the effective surge in the global labour supply thereafter. So we first see the impact in 1990 on this graph.

Obviously, this is highly simplified and in a globalised world we should probably include more countries than China as various lower labour cost nations have transformed from relatively closed low income countries to more developed globalised ones. However, China dwarfs all these by its size. It’s also simplistic to include all of the working age population increase from China in one decade as we do in the chart. It should probably be spread out over time but it’s hard to assess the increments that they should be added over the last 35 years. The disinflationary journey would be the same though. At a developed world level there"s little doubt that labour"s share of GDP has declined over the last few decades. Figure 4 shows this decline for a selection of G20 countries from 1980.

In addition Figure 5 shows real wage growth (YoY change) over the last few decades for a selection of the largest countries around the world. As can be seen in the two decades we have data for prior to 1980, real wage growth was much higher than the post 1980-period. It"s interesting that China"s wage growth over the period was much higher which fits with our thesis that the EM workers that integrated into the global economy benefitted most from this globalisation period.

So will a falling working age population increase inflation?

As can be seen in Figure 3 above, the peak of the ‘working age population’ in the MDW plus China occurred around the middle of this decade. Going forward the supply of labour will in aggregate start to decline after rising for the last three and a half decades.

While the pace of decline will be slow, the fact that it’s not increasing at the rapid pace of the last 35 years surely must have an impact on labour costs. If economic growth simply increases at trend over the next few years and decades then all other things being equal a flat to declining labour force should bring upward pressure on wage costs.

Would fiat currencies survive if labour’s share of GDP reversed?

In terms of addressing inequality and the increasing gap between capital and labour, higher wages would undoubtedly be good news. However the problem for the current global monetary system is that over the last 45 years it has relied on governments and central banks being able to turn on the stimulus spigots at the drop of a hat when a crisis has come. This has enabled each crisis to be dealt with via increasing leverage rather than creative  destruction type policies. For this to be possible you’ve needed an offset to such stimulus to prevent such policies being inflationary. Fortunately (or unfortunately if you believe it’s an inherently unstable equilibrium) the external  global downward pressure on labour costs ensured that this has happened.

So what would happen to the global monetary system if labour costs started to reverse their 35 year trend? If central banks had their current mandates of keeping inflation around 2% then they would be duty bound to tighten policy more often regardless of the external environment. However, such an outcome is probably unrealistic given how much debt there is at a global level. Governments would surely first change their mandates to allow higher inflation or look to reduce their independence rather than allow interest rates to rise to economically uncomfortable levels given high debt levels. Ultimately, if and when labour costs rise at the margin rather than fall at the margin, we will likely have a much more difficult environment for policy makers and in a democracy where politicians have to be elected it is likely that inflation will be the casualty.

If we get higher trending inflation then bond yields would be very vulnerable, especially relative to current near record (multi-century) lows. Given the near record level debt burdens around the world, it is likely that central banks would be forced to buy more securities again to ensure that yields stayed comfortably below nominal GDP. This would likely lock in higher inflation as you would have negative real yields, very loose financial conditions and higher wages.

Eventually, it’s possible that inflation becomes more and more uncontrollable and the era of fiat currencies looks vulnerable as people lose faith in paper money. Once the value of debt has been eroded the debate would likely be live as to what replaces fiat currencies as surely the backlash would be severe against the system that allowed us to get to such a situation. Although the current speculative interest in cryptocurrencies is more to do with blockchain technology than a loss of faith in paper money, at some point there will likely be some median of exchange that becomes more universal and a competitor of paper money.

It’s far too early to fully speculate on the future of money but if there is demand we will look to add a part 2 to this series where we look at the alternatives and perhaps a more in-depth look at cryptocurriences going forward.

What if people retire later?

If populations extended their retirement well beyond 65 years old then the working age population will get a boost. However, while this is undoubtedly happening, in democracies this is proving incredibly hard to legislate on a big enough scale to seriously impact the overall natural demographic story. Maybe one day retirement ages will go up significantly and change the argument but this probably requires a major global shock and subsequent rewriting of contractual agreements between governments and their populations.

Conclusion

We would argue that fiat currencies are the rarity in financial history and are always associated with higher inflation. Perhaps the now 46 year experience with fiat currencies can be broken down into two periods; 1) The 1970s where inflation rose around the word at the fastest pace on record; and 2) the last 35 years where inflation has always been positive at a global level but has progressively fallen largely due to demographics, China and the associated globalisation trend.

Given we know that demographics are now slowly turning, it’s possible that a new era is slowly emerging towards higher wages, which will perhaps be encouraged by the rise in populism. As such, will fiat currencies survive the policy dilemma that the authorities will experience as they try to balance higher yields with record levels of debt?

That’s the multi-trillion dollar question for the years ahead.

Not All Hard Assets Are Created Equal

Written by Jeff Nielson, Sprott Money News

A familiar refrain in many previous commentaries is that fiat currencies – especially Western fiat currencies – are fundamentally worthless. These currencies are backed by nothing, the definition of a fiat currency.

 

Typically, these currencies have been borrowed into existence. This makes such notes de facto IOU’s of our governments. However, Western governments are bankrupt. Their currency IOU’s are just as void of value as their bonds. Compounding this fundamental worthlessness, these Western currencies (especially the U.S. dollar) have been conjured into existence in unprecedented quantities in recent years.

 

Denominated in these worthless currencies, the “price” of any hard asset is effectively infinite. Why have the exchange rates of these various forms of worthless paper not already priced in this worthlessness?

 

There is a general answer and a specific to this question. The general answer goes as follows. The plunge of a currency to worthlessness is almost always “a confidence event”. What does this mean?

 

It means that such fiat currencies almost always become worthless from a fundamental perspective well before the official exchange rate descends to zero. The reason for this is quite simple.

 

A currency that has been in use for a significant period of time acquires the faith of the population that uses it. Few members of any population have the economic savvy to understand when a currency has become worthless from a monetary standpoint. Thus there is a honeymoon period.

 

A currency continues to have a relatively normal exchange rate even after it is fundamentally worthless because it still enjoys the confidence of that population. At some point (generally when the currency becomes even more extremely diluted), the population realizes that their currency has been debauched.

 

The paper loses the confidence of that population, and the descent in the exchange rate to near-zero quickly follows. We are currently in this “honeymoon period” with Western fiat currencies. They are fundamentally worthless, but very few people are aware of this.

 

There is also a second, specific reason why these various forms of worthless paper have not already begun their final death-spiral. The banking crime syndicate, better known as the One Bank, uses this paper to fund its criminal operations.

 

It has a very, very strong motive to delay this final death spiral. It has two powerful tools that it uses to extend this delay: propaganda and currency manipulation.

 

The propaganda is as constant as it is absurd. The central bankers (and their media lackeys) pretend there is no connection between the increase in supply of these currencies and the decrease in their value – the basic fundamentals of supply and demand.

 

In the fantasy world of Western central banks, the concept of dilution essentially does not exist. The laughable propaganda goes as follows.

 

With their reckless money-printing, these central bank charlatans are “trying” to create inflation (i.e. reduce the value of these currencies) but supposedly failing to do so. It’s the equivalent of a magical lemonade stand, where no matter how much water is added to the lemonade it cannot be diluted – it remains as strong as ever.

 

The other tool that the banking crime syndicate uses to delay the end of, in particular, the U.S. dollar is currency manipulation. The Big Bank tentacles of the One Bank have been criminally convicted of manipulating all of the world’s currencies.

 

With a potent propaganda machine, near-omnipotence in manipulating markets, and no meaningful law enforcement, the One Bank has added extra years to the life of its fraudulent fiat currencies. But their days are numbered.

 

What then?

 

All hard assets would have an effective “price” of infinity denominated in the various forms of this worthless paper. In that scenario, readers have asked: why should they be giving preference (now) to holding gold and silver?

 

It is because all of these hard assets are not equal. They are not equal in absolute value. Perhaps more importantly, as the bankers have manipulated most of our markets, prices have become severely skewed. The relative value of various hard assets has become even more unequal.

 

In terms of absolute value, gold and silver are “precious” metals. Silver, in fact, is even more aesthetically brilliant than gold. This means that when the fiat paper goes to zero, these are assets which (historically) are always valued highly.

 

However, the real reason why people should gravitate towards these assets is relative value. Many readers know that in monetary terms, gold and silver are “canaries in the coal mine”. They are supposed to alert us to precisely the sort of currency debauchment that has swept the Western world.

 

As a further means of delaying the end of this fraudulent paper, the One Bank has made the price suppression of precious metals one of its overriding obsessions. The price of gold has been held to a small fraction of its real value in order to make the bankers’ fiat paper appear to have retained its worth.

 

The price of silver has been suppressed even more ruthlessly. In real dollars, it was driven to a 600-year low, and has effectively remained at that level. Compare the relative value of these hard assets with real estate.

 

 

Year after year of near-zero interest rates has fueled real estate bubbles of unprecedented proportions across major urban centers. In relative terms, real estate has never been more expensive. Real estate is the worst place to attempt to shelter our wealth as we flee the bankers’ paper currencies.

 

Various other classes of hard assets fall somewhere in between these two extremes. Almost all commodities are at relatively depressed levels. Soaring commodity prices are a secondary warning of imminent hyperinflation, so the bankers have suppressed most commodity markets.

 

This may confuse the issue in the minds of some. If all commodities are suppressed, then any commodity becomes a suitable haven for our wealth as we flee fiat currencies. Not so.

 

There is the simple, practical issue. Few commodities can be held directly by the average investor. It’s not practical to attempt to hold bushels of wheat, barrels of oil, or warehouses full of lumber. “Holding” commodities in the form of paper ETF’s means venturing into the bankers’ corrupted markets – and accepting counterparty risk.

 

As a practical matter, it is easier to hold gold and silver than virtually any other class of hard asset. This leads to the reason why it is so easy to hold these metals.

 

Gold and silver are money. In terms of wealth preservation, they are stores of value which is why they are universally regarded as premier safe havens. Because gold and silver are money, this makes them the most liquid hard assets.

 

It is this property of ultimate liquidity that makes gold and silver such coveted safe havens. Implied when one seeks shelter from any crisis is that at some point the crisis ends. At that point the asset-holder is looking to exchange their hard assets for other goods (and services). As a
basic fundamental of commerce, the greater the liquidity of any asset, the more fully-valued it is when liquidated, i.e. the smaller the discount faced by the seller/trader.

 

Our fiat currencies are worthless. Even most readers who may not be ready to accept this ultimate verdict must be troubled by the dubious monetary fundamentals of these various forms of paper.

 

They are going to zero. They always go to zero. In the one thousand years since humanity first began practicing this form of monetary fraud, all fiat currencies plunge to worthlessness – and generally quickly. Our own fiat currencies are overdue for their final Death Spiral.

 

In fleeing fiat, not all hard assets are created equal. Gold and silver offer three superior qualities:

 

1. Relative value today. Gold and silver are more undervalued at present, meaning we get the best exchange rate in return for our fiat paper.


2. Superior liquidity tomorrow. Whether selling or spending our gold and silver, these hard assets will be discounted less than virtually any other asset class.


3. Convenience. Even at the absurd price of $1,200/oz (USD), most of us could carry all or almost all of our life-savings, converted to gold.

 

Gold or silver? Silver is the better buy in relative value. As the more valuable metal, gold is much more portable and thus much more convenient.

 

With its lower exchange rate, silver is the better metal in which to conduct routine commerce. With its higher exchange rate, gold provides greater security in a crisis. In short, hold both, each for their own reason.

 

The need to rid ourselves of paper fiat currencies should be obvious. Our primary refuge from those fiat currencies should be equally obvious.

 

 

Questions or comments about this article? Leave your thoughts HERE.

 

 

 

 

Written by Jeff Nielson, Sprott Money News

 

38 Incredible Facts About The Modern U.S. Dollar

We’ve previously showed you 31 Fascinating Facts About the Dollar’s Early History, which highlighted the history of U.S. currency before the 20th century. This was a very interesting period in which we looked at the money used by the first colonists, the extreme bust of the Continental currency, the era of privately-issued bank notes, and Congress’ emergency issuance of the fiat “greenback” during the Civil War.

However, as The Money Project - an ongoing collaboration between Visual Capitalist and Texas Precious Metals that seeks to use intuitive visualizations to explore the origins, nature, and use of money - notes, the modern era of the U.S. dollar is just as interesting. We have it starting in 1913, when the Federal Reserve Act was passed by Woodrow Wilson. Not only did it establish a new central bank, but it also gave the Fed the authority to issue the Federal Reserve Note, which is (for now) the dominant form of U.S. currency both domestically and abroad.

A New Legal Tender

Leading up to the 20th century, there were four main forms of U.S. currency being used:

• Gold and silver coins


• Gold and silver certificates


• Commercial bank notes, issued by private banks and backed by government bonds


• “Greenbacks”, a fiat currency declared legal by Congress to help fund the Civil War

In 1913, however, the Federal Reserve Note was authorized as U.S. currency. The new notes were supposed to be backed by gold or other “lawful money”, based on the stipulations of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.

However, this only lasted about 20 years. By the time of the Great Depression, the Fed considered itself to be in a tight spot. It simply did not have enough gold to back all Federal Reserve Notes and Gold Certificates in circulation, and at the same time wanted flexibility with monetary policy to fight deflation and unemployment.

In 1933, the Emergency Banking Act was passed by President Roosevelt, and Executive Order 6102 was also signed. The latter move famously criminalized monetary gold, and ended the gold standard.

After all, if gold can’t be legally owned, it can’t be legally redeemed.

Modern Paper Money

After a brief return to a pseudo gold standard after WWII, Nixon severed all remaining ties between gold and money in 1971. Since then, U.S. money has been purely fiat, and backed by the government rather than any physical commodity or precious metal.

Some facts on today’s paper money:

• There is $1.54 trillion of U.S. currency in circulation, and 97% of that is Federal Reserve Notes


• Over two-thirds of all $100 bills are held outside the U.S.


• Dollar bills can be folded at least 8,000 times, which is 20x more than a normal sheet of paper


• That’s because dollar bills are made of a special 75% cotton and 25% linen blend, patented by Crane & Co.


• The U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing produces 38 million notes every day, worth $541 million


• The two facilities, located in Washington, D.C. and Fort Worth, Texas use 9.7 tons of ink per day


• For 2017, the Fed ordered 7.1 billion new notes, worth $209 billion


• More than 70% of these notes are used to replace damaged ones


• Notes with smaller denominations ($1, $5, $10) tend to last for shorter periods of time, due to more frequent usage

Coins

The coins used today are similar to U.S. Federal Reserve Notes in that their face values tend to greatly exceed their intrinsic values.

This is because cheaper metals such as copper, zinc, and nickel are used instead of gold or silver.

• The average lifespan of a coin is 25 years, according to the U.S. Mint


• It’s estimated that Americans throw away around $62 million of coins every year


• In 2016, the U.S. Mint produced 16 trillion coins, valued at over $1.09 billion


• The amount of copper in a penny has fluctuated over the years. It ranges from 0% (in WWII, pennies were made of steel so copper could be used for ammunition) to 95%.


• Today’s pennies are 2.5% copper, with the remainder being 97.5% zinc

Just Remember, Nothing Last Forever...

Source: The Burning Platform

The End Of The (Petro)Dollar: What The Fed Doesn't Want You To Know

Authored by Shaun Bradley via TheAntiMedia.org,

The United States’ ability to maintain its influence over the rest of the world has been slowly diminishing. Since the petrodollar was established in 1971, U.S. currency has monopolized international trade through oil deals with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and continuous military interventions. There is, however, growing opposition to the American standard, and it gained more support recently when several Gulf states suddenly blockaded Qatar, which they accused of funding terrorism.

Despite the mainstream narrative, there are several other reasons why Qatar is in the crosshairs. Over the past two years, it conducted over $86 billion worth of transactions in Chinese yuan and has signed other agreements with China that encourage further economic cooperation. Qatar also shares the world’s largest natural gas field with Iran, giving the two countries significant regional influence to expand their own trade deals.

Meanwhile, uncontrollable debt and political divisions in the United States are clear signs of vulnerability. The Chinese and Russians proactively set up alternative financial systems for countries looking to distance themselves from the Federal Reserve.  After the IMF accepted the yuan into its basket of reserve currencies in October of last year, investors and economists finally started to pay attention. The economic power held by the Federal Reserve has been key in financing the American empire, but geopolitical changes are happening fast. The United States’ reputation has been tarnished by decades of undeclared wars, mass surveillance, and catastrophic foreign policy.

One of America’s best remaining assets is its military strength, but it’s useless without a strong economy to fund it. Rival coalitions like the BRICS nations aren’t challenging the established order head on and are instead opting to undermine its financial support. Qatar is just the latest country to take steps to bypass the U.S. dollar. Russia made headlines in 2016 when they started accepting payments in yuan and took over as China’s largest oil partner, stealing a huge market share from Saudi Arabia in the process. Iran also dropped the dollar earlier this year in response to President Trump’s travel ban. As the tide continues to turn against the petrodollar, eventually even our allies will start to question what best serves their own interests.

Many E.U. member states are clashing with the unelected leadership in Brussels over immigration, terrorism, and austerity measures. If no solutions are found and things deteriorate, other countries could potentially follow the U.K.’s lead and vote to leave, as well. It is starting to become obvious that countries in Eastern Europe will look to the East to get the resources their economies need.

China, Russia, and India are all ahead of the curve and started stockpiling gold years ago. They recognize that hard assets will be the measure of true wealth in the near future — not fiat money. The historic hyperinflation that has occurred in these countries solidified the importance of precious metals in their monetary systems. Unfortunately, most Americans are ignorant of the past and will likely embrace more government bailouts and money printing when faced with the next recession. Even Fed officials have admitted that more quantitative easing is likely the only path going forward.

Several renowned investors have warned about this ongoing shift of economic power from West to East, but bureaucrats and central bankers refuse to admit how serious things could get. The impact on the average person could be devastating if they are not properly educated and prepared for the fallout.

Economist and author James Rickards summarized why China and Russia are so interested in acquiring precious metals:

“They are stuck with their dollars. They fear, rightly, that the US will inflate its way out of its $19 trillion mountain of debt. China’s solution is to buy gold. If dollar inflation emerges, China’s Treasury holdings will devalue, but the dollar price of its gold will soar. A large gold reserve is a prudent diversification.  Russia’s motives are geopolitical. Gold is the model 21st century weapon for financial wars.The US controls dollar payments systems and, with help from European allies, can eject adversaries from the international payments system called Swift. Gold is immune to such assaults. Physical gold in your custody cannot be hacked, erased, or frozen. Moving gold is a simple way for Russia to settle accounts without US interference.”

Mainstream pundits will continue to distract the public with the same optimistic talking points, but taking advantage of this calm before the storm is important. As this transition takes place, central bankers will sacrifice anything and everything to keep their Ponzi scheme going. Only individuals can take the initiative to protect themselves and be able to help others who won’t be as lucky. Those who embrace sound money and cryptocurrencies will thrive in this new competitive global economy, but if America fails to adapt, the same fiat system that gave it power will drag it into poverty.

Is Bitcoin Money?

Authored by Valentin Schmid via The Epoch Times,

Up 158 percent against the U.S. dollar this year, bitcoin is now the best-performing currency. Many are confused as to how this mathematical protocol can be worth more than $2,600, and why it keeps going up. The short answer: Bitcoin is money, just a little better and cheaper than the alternatives.

If you don’t understand money, you cannot understand bitcoin. For most of us, money is the U.S. dollar, the fiat currency of the United States issued by the Federal Reserve and maintained by the commercial banking system.

But even this system is confusing. Most people don’t hold Federal Reserve notes anymore; they hold money in checking accounts or use their credit cards to buy things. This is electronic fiat money, stored on the servers of banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America.

This type of money is a great medium of exchange. Because the state mandates the acceptance of fiat money by all commercial actors, you can pay everywhere with dollars and, as a bonus, the prices of consumer goods seldom change more than a few percent per year.

Other attributes that make the dollar useful as a medium of exchange are its divisibility, recognizability, and indestructability—at least in electronic form—and the ease with which it can be exchanged.

However, there is a problem with the dollar as a medium of exchange over time. Since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the dollar has lost about 95 percent of its purchasing power. This devaluation is hardly visible over the course of days, months, and even years, but it is painfully felt over the span of decades.

So it’s hard, if not impossible, to exchange the same value over time with the U.S. dollar, and investors need to expose themselves to other assets to protect purchasing power. This is a general problem of fiat currencies and bank money, which are both prone to mismanagement by the state and banks, mostly because they can be reproduced at will. More dollars chasing the same amount of goods leads to rising prices.

Value Over Time

This is the reason why people have traditionally resorted to gold to protect themselves from monetary inflation. Gold is also easily recognizable, divisible, durable, and concentrates a lot of value in little space. One troy ounce now costs about $1,250.

However, its uses as legal tender have been limited since the demise of the true gold standard at the beginning of the 20th century, and it is not easily transferred in physical form like the electronic dollar. Furthermore, its price is relatively volatile when measured in dollars in the short term, and the IRS collects tax on gains in dollars, making gold even less exchangeable.

But gold cannot be replicated at will and therefore is a better way of exchanging value over time. One dollar bought almost 20 bottles of Coca-Cola in the 1930s. It now buys less than one. One ounce of gold bought 700 bottles of Coke in the 1930s; it now buys almost 800.

Decentralized Electronic Money

Once one understands that money needs to be able to exchange value in time and space, it is easier to see why bitcoin is so attractive.

Although it cannot handle as many transactions as the banking system, it is relatively easy and cheap to transfer. Hundreds of thousands of businesses and individuals voluntarily accept bitcoin as payment. Its mathematical properties are recognizable, infinitely divisible, and indestructible.

As a medium of exchange, mainly because of legal tender laws, bitcoin is not as widely accepted as the dollar or other fiat currencies, but it is easier to transfer than gold and it is also subject to taxation.

In the long term, bitcoin has similar properties to gold because it cannot be replicated at will and the number of coins is limited to 21 million. This means that bitcoin is better than the dollar for transferring purchasing power through time.  It is similar to gold, although gold has a far longer track record.

Its decentralized management is another factor making it attractive for people who distrust fiat currency and the banks.

Cheap Alternative

Given that bitcoin is better than gold in the short term and much better than the dollar in the long term across the dimensions we have described, it’s not surprising that people chose to diversify their money holdings into this independent currency due to frustration with the mismanagement of fiat money and manipulation of gold prices.

There is another reason why bitcoin is attractive as a currency. Despite its record high in dollar terms, it is still cheap in aggregate. All Bitcoins are only worth $43 billion. All gold ever mined is worth around $7.5 to $10 trillion, although estimates vary. As for the U.S. dollar, just the M2 measure of bank money, including checking accounts, puts its worth at $13.5 trillion.

If bitcoin were to establish itself as an alternative currency and store of value alongside gold and the dollar, a total valuation of $1 trillion would not be inconceivable. That’s $47,600 per coin.

Offshore Gold Storage - A Look Inside The Cayman Vault

Submitted by Jeff Thomas via SWPCayman.com,

"If your gold is outside the US, it gives you another degree of insulation should the United States decide that you shouldn’t own it — it"s not a reportable asset." - Doug Casey, May 2017

I’ve been a holder of gold since the 1970’s. At that time, I was purchasing gold and silver for business reasons and found that, as the price was steadily increasing, I would be wise to buy more than I needed immediately, as I would most certainly profit from it in the near future.

At that time, I was buying most of my precious metals in Hatton Garden, the centre for metals in London and, in talking with my more experienced associates, I learned that gold doesn’t just make pretty jewellery, it has, for over 5000 years, served as man’s best economic insurance policy.

Since the creation of the first fiat currency in China, ca. 600 AD, governments have had the annoying habit of creating fiat currencies. It has taken many forms, including tobacco, shells, cattle, even tulips in 17^th Century Holland.

Over the centuries there have been countless fiat currencies. Most of them have been paper currencies and, with the exception of the present-day fiat currencies, all have eventually become worth exactly zero.

Not a very good track record. But whenever this has happened, gold has regained its lustre and saved the day, providing a solid means to store wealth. Although governments and bankers have done all they can to discredit gold and discourage its use, gold invariably outlives them all. Whenever history has seen periods of dramatic overreach by banks and/or governments, gold once again re-establishes the very definition of money.

Today, we’re passing through one of these eras of overreach and, not surprisingly, those who are farsighted are quietly building up their store of gold, to protect them when the latest form of fiat currency joins the rest that have collapsed over the centuries.

But, having realized the need to own gold and then beginning to build up a portfolio, the holder asks himself, “Where should I keep it?” The obvious answer is at home, or somewhere very close, so that he may get to it if need be. During good economic times, this may well mean in a safe deposit box in a bank, but in times like the present, when governments (the EU, US and Canada, amongst others) have recently passed laws allowing banks to confiscate deposits and raid safe deposit boxes, the last choice for safe storage would be a bank.

This leads us to the “at home” option. This is actually a good one. If you have a yard where neither dogs nor gardeners tend to dig holes, “midnight gardening” can indeed be a good solution for small amounts of gold storage. Or, for a neater and more easily accessible solution, a home safe might work well. (You would, of course, want it to be well-concealed and you’d need to install it yourself, or the installers might get ideas.)

But, when turbulent times come, as they have recently, this only works well if you own a small amount of gold, say 10 ounces or less. If you hold more at home, you run into the problem of governments. In 1933, US President Franklin Roosevelt demanded that all gold be turned in to the government. He subsequently revalued it and, in doing so, robbed its rightful owners of a 69% increase in their wealth.

Unfortunately, since we know that the EU, US and Canada have all passed confiscation laws, those jurisdictions are no longer safe places to store wealth. Ten ounces of gold may be regarded as an emergency stash but, beyond that, another jurisdiction is needed – one that’s not threatened by confiscation laws.

What I recommend to investors is to first choose the best jurisdiction that’s relatively near to you, then pick the safest storage facility within that jurisdiction. In Europe, Austria is a good choice and Das Safe is an excellent depository. In Asia, Singapore is an excellent jurisdiction and The Safe House is an exceptional choice.

However, the Western Hemisphere is a different story. There are quite a few excellent depositories in the US and Canada, but, as stated above, these jurisdictions are no longer safe. In my travels elsewhere in the hemisphere, I’ve been disappointed to find that, whilst there are jurisdictions that are safer than North America, the depositories there leave a great deal to be desired. (On one occasion, in Uruguay, I looked at the outside of the building and never even went in. Although it was considered the premier facility there, it didn’t come close to my expectations.) Others, such as those in Panama, have been equally disappointing.

What the depositor should be after is a facility that’s heavily reinforced on all six sides (meaning that ceiling and foundation must be just as impenetrable as the walls). In addition, it would need a Class III bullion vault – the equal of the best bank vaults. Furthermore, it should have multiple security doors and man-traps, assuring that no one who enters can make a dash for the door, eliminating the temptation for theft.

Unfortunately, to my present knowledge, there’s only one depository in the Western Hemisphere that ticks all the boxes. Or perhaps I should put that another way: Fortunately, there is a depository in the Western Hemisphere that ticks all the boxes.

That depository is Strategic Wealth Preservation (SWP) in the Cayman Islands. Most importantly, it’s located in and exceptional jurisdiction as regards wealth safety. And, by this I mean:

• The is no direct taxation in the Cayman Islands. No taxes or duties that apply to the purchase, ownership, storage or sales of precious metals. No capital gains tax; no inheritance tax.


• World-class financial system to provide auxiliary services.


• Stable government with consistent history for economic stability that caters to international investors.


• Minimal wealth legislation and regulation, to assure a minimum of red tape in processing purchases, sales, transfers and shipment of metals.

Secondly, SWP ticks all the boxes as to being a top bullion storage facility. Further, the SWP storage contracts were designed to take the best from each of the world’s other depositories, having been vetted by one of the world’s most respected gold analysts (who, possibly not coincidentally, became the first depositor). Also, it’s only an hour by air from the US.

It’s also essential that your deposit is fully insured and that the storage be fully documented, allocated and segregated, as in the photo below of an incoming deposit:

For Americans, an offshore gold IRA is becoming an essential and SWP has an excellent relationship with US-based IRA administrator New Direction IRA allowing American citizens to hold gold in their self-directed IRAs and LLCs offshore in SWP’s vault.

Over the past decades that I’ve been advising people on geographical economic diversification, I’ve often said that the coming events themselves are relatively easy to predict, but the timing is not. To me, the one clearest indicator of timeframe is that, the closer a crash gets, the more events will increase in both frequency and magnitude. Based upon that premise, we’re drawing quite close to the first of the crashes, as we’re now seeing significant events almost daily.

This tells us that our time is limited and that our long-term plans for wealth preservation need to be in place now. Whatever choice the reader makes to safeguard his wealth, he will need to do it very soon. Time is very clearly running out. SWP’s Cayman Islands vault represents a very good option for offshore wealth preservation in the Western Hemisphere.

Gnome Underpants Gold Model, Report 21 May, 2017

There is a often-promoted plan to grow your wealth. Here’s the background. The dollar is going to be worthless. Soon! The reason is because [their peeps in high places tell them / the Chinese / end of the petrodollar / historical fiat currencies / Rothschild Jekyll Island Master Plan Private Fed / Fed printing] will cause the dollar to collapse and gold will rocket to $50,000. In fact, it’s a miracle that the price is a mere $1,253 and it hasn’t already. It will, once people discover this One Weird Secret that They Don’t Want You to Know that we have been reiterating every day for decades.

(By the way, Monetary Metals is about to publish the data to finally shine the full sunlight of disinfectant on this—stay tuned)

The plan has three phases.

Phase 1: You gotta buy gold. Now. In fact, call 1-800-BUY-GOLD now! That number, again, is one eight hundred bee yoo wye gee oh ell dee.

Phase 2: Price goes up

Phase 3: Profit!

This is a bit reminiscent of the underpants business model on South Park. South Park of course showed phase 2 as “???” but the analogy holds.

Pay particular attention to the context switch. The story switches midway from the-dollar-will-collapse to gold-will-go-up.

In fact, these are the same thing. It is important to realize because a higher price of gold does not make you richer. Sure, you have more dollars but each of them is worth proportionally less. And why would you want to exchange your gold for collapsing Rothschild private bank petrodollar printing press Monopoly money? On top of this, the tax man will take a big chunk of any price appreciation. So, if you sell you have less wealth.

Aside from being wrong as a matter of fact, it is an example of dollar thinking. It comes from the belief that gold is to be sold. That is not historically how people thought about it. Gold is money and those who have it should seek to earn a return on it, not sell it.

This week, the prices of the metals went up. Perhaps that rubber stopper under the silver elevator is durable.

However, as always we are interested in the supply and demand fundamental of the metals. We will show graphs, but first, the price and ratio charts.

The Prices of Gold and Silver

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. It moved lower this week.

The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

Here is the gold graph.

The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

We changed to the August contract.

August is far from expiration, and we see no sign of temporary backwardation (another phenomenon that disproves the naked short manipulation theory). And we see something clear and revealing. There is a steadily rising scarcity (i.e. the cobasis, the red line) and falling abundance (the basis, the blue line). The trend has been ongoing for many months, with not a lot of jitter. The scarcity of gold, as indicated by the August gold spreads, has been on the rise.

For somewhat less time, the price of gold has been rising.

Our calculated fundamental closed the week up another $21, to $1,275. That’s hardly “call 1-800-BUY-GOLD now before it hits $10,000” territory, but noteworthy nonetheless.

Now let’s look at silver.

The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

Last week, we said that “silver does not yet show any backwardation, though it’s close at -0.03%.” This week, it’s +0.1%. However, this is definitely temporary backwardation. The near contract in silver tends to fall earlier than the near contract in gold.

Obviously, past a certain date, speculators looking to bet on silver would not buy the July contract but instead the September. Everyone may have his own boundary, in part depending on how long they want to hold the position. But clearly, for the marginal silver speculator, we are past that point in the July contract.

So there is an imbalance, less and less buying. The selling (to roll July) may not be urgent yet, but silver is less liquid than gold. So a small imbalance will show up as a change in basis.

Our calculated fundamental price of silver was down a few pennies.

We will end on an amusing note. The previous week, we said:

"We saw a technical analysis trader write a note this weekend. He said he plans to short silver on Monday. When the technicals and then fundamentals align, that can make for an interesting week."

Assuming he shorted it early on Monday morning, he might have top-ticked it at $16.40. On Tuesday, he could have closed at $16.05, for a gain of 2.1%. There has to be an easier way to earn a few bucks (and we never recommend naked-shorting gold or silver).

Well, as of Friday silver is $16.84. Depending on how much leverage he used, that could be a big owwie.

Keith will be speaking at the Mining Investment Europe event in Frankfurt in mid-June. He will be in London the week of June 19, and in New York the week of June 26. If you’re interested in attending a Monetary Metals seminar on GOFO and transparency in the gold market in either city, or to meet with Keith to discuss gold investment, please click here.

© 2017 Monetary Metals

Doug Casey On Why Gold Is Money

Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

It’s an unfortunate historical anomaly that people think about the paper in their wallets as money. The dollar is, technically, a currency. A currency is a government substitute for money. But gold is money.

Now, why do I say that?

Historically, many things have been used as money. Cattle have been used as money in many societies, including Roman society. That’s where we get the word “pecuniary” from: the Latin word for a single head of cattle is pecus. Salt has been used as money, also in ancient Rome, and that’s where the word “salary” comes from; the Latin for salt is sal (or salis). The North American Indians used seashells. Cigarettes were used during WWII. So, money is simply a medium of exchange and a store of value.

By that definition, almost anything could be used as money, but obviously, some things work better than others; it’s hard to exchange things people don’t want, and some things don’t store value well. Over thousands of years, the precious metals have emerged as the best form of money. Gold and silver both, though primarily gold.

There’s nothing magical about gold. It’s just uniquely well suited among the 98 naturally occurring elements for use as money…in the same way aluminum is good for airplanes or uranium is good for nuclear power.

There are very good reasons for this, and they are not new reasons. Aristotle defined five reasons why gold is money in the 4th century BCE (which may only have been the first time it was put down on paper). Those five reasons are as valid today as they were then.

When I give a speech, I often offer a prize to the audience member who can tell me the five classical reasons gold is the best money. Quickly now—what are they? Can’t recall them? Read on, and this time, burn them into your memory.

Money

If you can’t define a word precisely, clearly, and quickly, that’s proof you don’t understand what you’re talking about as well as you might. The proper definition of money is as something that functions as a store of value and a medium of exchange.

Government fiat currencies can, and currently do, function as money. But they are far from ideal. What, then, are the characteristics of a good money? Aristotle listed them in the 4th century BCE. A good money must be all of the following:

• 
  

  Durable: A good money shouldn’t fall apart in your pocket nor evaporate when you aren’t looking. It should be indestructible. This is why we don’t use fruit for money. It can rot, be eaten by insects, and so on. It doesn’t last.

  
  


• 
  

  Divisible: A good money needs to be convertible into larger and smaller pieces without losing its value, to fit a transaction of any size. This is why we don’t use things like porcelain for money—half a Ming vase isn’t worth much.

  
  


• 
  

  Consistent: A good money is something that always looks the same, so that it’s easy to recognize, each piece identical to the next. This is why we don’t use things like oil paintings for money; each painting, even by the same artist, of the same size and composed of the same materials is unique. It’s also why we don’t use real estate as money. One piece is always different from another piece.

  
  


• 
  

  Convenient: A good money packs a lot of value into a small package and is highly portable. This is why we don’t use water for money, as essential as it is—just imagine how much you’d have to deliver to pay for a new house, not to mention all the problems you’d have with the escrow. It’s also why we don’t use other metals like lead, or even copper. The coins would have to be too huge to handle easily to be of sufficient value.

  
  


• 
  

  Intrinsically valuable: A good money is something many people want or can use. This is critical to money functioning as a means of exchange; even if I’m not a jeweler, I know that someone, somewhere wants gold and will take it in exchange for something else of value to me. This is why we don’t—or shouldn’t—use things like scraps of paper for money, no matter how impressive the inscriptions upon them might be.

  
  

Actually, there’s a sixth reason Aristotle should have mentioned, but it wasn’t relevant in his age, because nobody would have thought of it…it can’t be created out of thin air.

Not even the kings and emperors who clipped and diluted coins would have dared imagine that they could get away with trying to use something essentially worthless as money.

These are the reasons why gold is the best money. It’s not a gold bug religion, nor a barbaric superstition. It’s simply common sense. Gold is particularly good for use as money, just as aluminum is particularly good for making aircraft, steel is good for the structures of buildings, uranium is good for fueling nuclear power plants, and paper is good for making books. Not money. If you try to make airplanes out of lead, or money out of paper, you’re in for a crash.

That gold is money is simply the result of the market process, seeking optimum means of storing value and making exchanges.

*  *  *

Doug thinks the price of gold could hit $5,000 in the coming years. To help you take advantage of this rare opportunity, he’s sharing the specific method he’s used to make gains as large as 487%, 711%, and even 4,329% in previous gold bull markets. The “Casey Method” is unlike any other investing strategy. If used properly, it could make you HUGE gains over the next few years. Doug explains it all right here. You’ll also learn how to get instant access to a special report that names 9 gold stocks with huge upside. Each of these stocks could rise 100%, 200%, or more in the coming years. Click here to get started.