Despite growing expectations that Catalan separatist fervor had abated in the aftermath of the post-independence fiasco, consensus was once again set for disappointment and on Thursday night, Spain was thrown back into chaos after the three Catalan separatist parties, Junts per Catalunya, Republican Catalan Left and the CUP, held on to a small but critical majority in the Catalan regional parliamentary election, dealing a stunning rebuke to Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his attempt to bury the Catalan independence movement.
With virtually all of the vote counted, the separatists held on to 70 seats, down from 72 in the 2015 election and 1 less than the initial exit polls predicted, just weeks after PM Mariano Rajoy fired the former first minister, Carles Puigdement and his entire government after the held what Madrid dubbed an "illegal referendum" and declared independence on October 27. Yet while the separatists won as a group, the biggest individual winner was the Ciudadanos party, which gained 300,000 more votes and 12 more seats compared to its 2015 position. It was also the single biggest party to emerge from today"s election with a total of 37 seats. Meanwhile for Rajoy"s People"s Party, the result was a disaster as it finished in last place among the mainstream parties with just three seats.
But even more importantly, it was a personal victory for Carles Puigdemont, the ousted Catalan president who campaigned in self-imposed exile from Brussels. His Junts per Catalunya emerged as the most-popular separatist party, handing him a mandate to lead the secession campaign, after Junts per Catalunya beat Oriol Junqueras and Republican Catalan Left to lead the separatist block. As The Spain Report noted, Junts per Catalunya obtained slightly more than 900,000 votes and 34 seats. Esquerra won slightly fewer than 900,000 votes but only 32 seats. The radical-left, pro-independence CUP lost six of its ten seats and about half of its votes.
The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC, Miquel Iceta) gained 50,000 votes and one seat.
The Popular Party in Catalonia, led by Xavier García Albiol, lost eight of its eleven seats, dropping to just three, and, like the CUP, approximately half of its votes. As
Catalunya en Comú Podem, the Podemos brand for these regional elections, lost three seats compared to its previous brand result in 2015, falling to eight seats.
Both blocks obtained more votes than in 2015 due to a turnout that rose six points to 82% compared to 2015.
And while the Ciudadanos ascent was remarkable, the take home of the night is that in this implicit referendum, the Catalan separatist sentiment once again prevailed as Carles Puigdement observed.
Speaking in a press conference in Brussels, the deposed Catalan president said that "the people of Catalonia have given a lesson to the world: the Catalan republic has beaten the monarchy of the 155." He was referring to the Constitutional Article 155 which the Spanish government used to take control of Catalan government. "The Spanish state has been defeated" Puigdement said and added that "Election results mean reparation, rectification and restitution are needed."
The deposed leader also said that "the legitimate government must return immediately power in Catalonia", envisioning of course, himself.
He concluded by claiming that "things are even better for secessionists today than they were two years ago, as the group has gained parliamentary power" and threatened that "if PM Rajoy continues to apply the same recipes he will continue to get the same results."
Meanwhile, baffling many traders, the EURUSD has yet to respond to today"s election, having traded in a tight 10 pip range since the unexpected exit polls first came out. Indeed, as Citi reminds us, "Remember, Spanish PM Rajoy called this election hoping for this faction to loose momentum." Considering the separatists preserve their majority, that hardly what happened.
Also observing the inert Euro, Bloomberg cautions that other Spanish assets may well move tomorrow, perhaps violently.
Polls had been pointing to a divided parliament and a confusing mess of options, and some bulls had even been buying Spanish assets as a bet on a good night for the constitutionalists. So the solid win for the separatists should mean Spanish stocks and bonds decline tomorrow.
It"s pretty clear that there will be more disruption than markets were pricing in. I would expect Ibex futures to fall on the open. After the referendum in October, the index fell 5.4% in three days before recovering. This selloff should be considerably less dramatic and equally short-lived.
Interestingly, Spain"s dollar bonds have been selling off for the last couple of days, while the euro debt has outperformed, suggesting there were different perceptions of the poll among different investor bases.
In summarizing today"s event, Bloomberg asked rhetorically "has there been a shift in Catalan politics" and answered:
After all the drama, the balance of power looks almost the same as two years ago, when the secessionists bloc won 72 seats compared to 70 now. The left-wing radicals of the CUP party saw their support shrivel but Puigdemont will again need their four seats for a majority
So what happens now? Well, the secessionists will seek to overcome their differences to form a government. Rajoy has made his own position clear. He will not tolerate an illegal challenge to the rule of Spanish law and reserves the right to invoke constitutional powers again to ensure it is respected. The bottom line: "nothing was really solved in Catalan politics tonight and the secession crisis continues."
Hundreds of thousands of people - 750,000 according to Barcelona police - backing Catalonia"s bid to secede from Spain clogged the streets in downtown Barcelona Saturday to demand the release of jailed separatist leaders.
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Close to a million people filled the length of the Avenue Marina that runs from the beach to Barcelona"s iconic Sagrada Familia church, while the jailed leaders" families made speeches.
As AP reports, the rally"s grassroots organizers called for 10 prominent members of the secessionist movement in the northeastern Spanish region to be freed from prison.
Eight former members of Catalonia"s dissolved Cabinet and two activists are in jail while Spanish authorities investigate their alleged roles in promoting an illegal declaration of independence last month in violation of Spain"s Constitution.
A separate court in Madrid granted bail on Thursday to another six Catalan lawmakers - including Catalan parliament"s speaker Carme Forcadell - also being investigated over the secession push. Forcadell was released after agreeing to renounce any political activity that went against the Spanish constitution, according to the court"s ruling, in effect banning her from campaigning for independence in the December election. Those terms threaten to undermine the independence movement just as cracks are starting to appear and tensions rise between the grassroots and their leaders.
Still, there were few cracks on display Saturday: "We want to tell the world that we want freedom for our prisoners and freedom for Catalonia," Agusti Alcoberro, the vice president of grassroots group National Catalan Assembly, told the crowd in Barcelona, the region"s capital.
Many of the protesters carried pro-independence "estelada" flags, with its white star and blue triangle superimposed over the traditional red-and-yellow Catalan colors.
"Look at all the people here," said 63-year-old Pep Morales, who was confident separatist parties would win in the 21 December election. "The independence movement is still going strong."
Many also held signs saying in Catalan "Freedom Political Prisoners" and wore yellow ribbons as a symbol of their demands.
Family members of the jailed separatists read messages from their loved ones to the crowd at the conclusion of the march.
While those separatist leaders now in jail obeyed a summons to appear in court in Madrid, deposed Catalan president Carles Puigdemont and four of his former ministers fled to Belgium, where they now await an extradition hearing to return them to Spain.
Addressing the rally in Barcelona via a video message shown on a large screen, Puigdemont said: "We need you all to be very active. We want to hear your voice, both those of us in Brussels and those in prison."
The Catalan fight for independence is not how conflicts are fought throughout history, let alone how they are won.
Some movements for national independence have succeeded in history, others have not. Presently, it seems that the Catalan bid is destined to fail. Maybe in the future Catalans will change their strategy and achieve their goal, but at the moment of writing the Catalan independence movement can be described as a storm in a teacup.
We therefore looked at what worked in the past and is missing right now, or what clearly is not working.
1. A bad plan to begin with.
Catalan independence is about claiming sovereignty from Madrid, just to immediately relinquish it to Brussels. If this had been decades ago, before the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, maybe it wouldn’t have mattered. Now, especially after the Brexit vote, the EU leadership has decided to push forward with the European Federalist project, starting possibly with a Eurozone financial minister as proposed by French President Macron.The latter’s plan also includes a Eurozone budget and that’s where the Catalan plan makes even less sense: part of the resentment towards Madrid is because Catalans do not like regional fiscal transfers towards the rest of Spain. Would they like it if fiscal transfers were towards other European regions via Macron’s proposed Eurozone budget?Many
Catalans also resent the “austerity” imposed by Madrid. Yet it’s not Madrid imposing it, it’s Brussels. Yet Catalans want to dump Madrid because of austerity and then join Brussels?
Why leave a political system because of its unnerving centralism just to join one that is shifting towards centralization, even further from the will of the people?
The EU also does not like referenda.Mainly because it tends to be on the losing side. It lost the ones on the “European Constitution” in 2004 in the Netherlands and France. The Constitution was then pragmatically swapped into “Lisbon’s Treaty” with a number of formal changes, but even that one was rejected in a referendum by the Irish. This time, the EU leadership forced a remake, finally succeeding.
More recent examples saw the Greek referendum on austerity in the summer of 2015, where the Greeks rejected the “Troika”, just to be forced into a humiliating surrender; the Dutch referendum on the association treaty with Ukraine, which also rejected the agreement; and the already mentioned one in the UK on the European Union membership. The EU’s track record in referenda is poor at best, thus it’s no surprise that EU leaders distrust direct democracy. Indeed, the European Commission through the agency of its President Juncker, refused to support the Catalan bid,fearing an opening of Pandora’s box and further political fragmentation, that would allow anyone to leave political systems (including the EU) at will. One Brexit was enough.
The EU can’t also let Catalonia go without incurring needless risks; nor can Spain. As we explained previously, Catalan independence could spark a second Eurozone debt crisis.
Catalan nationalists chose to overlook the centralist, pro-austerity and anti-direct democracy nature of the current European Union. A bit too much to be ignored.
2. Inconclusive leadership.
The now former Catalan President Puigdemont is a champion of missing opportunities. If there ever was a chance to succeed, it was right after the referendum, regardless of its democratic credibility, when the moral was high and there was a momentum of political support. Puigdemont flinched. His first speech after the referendum left many supporters confused. He then signed a declaration of independence, just to suspend it within seconds.
Can anyone imagine the Founding Fathers of the United States of America doing the same? Or the Greek ones after the war with the Ottoman Empire?
When Puigdemont finally decided to go forward, it was too late. He had missed his date with history. There might not be another one.
3. Gun-free society.
American supporters of the Second Amendment will love this one. It is not necessarily an endorsement, but a historical observation. The former claim to fight against centralism just like their ancestors fought against the King of England. Catalans want to fight against Castilian centralism and the King of Spain (independent Catalonia would be a republic).
The irony is that a sizeable portion of Catalan nationalists within the Catalan parliament are left-of-the-centre progressives.We wonder thus if Catalan progressives now feel that the US Second Amendment is still a “relic of the past” and similarly shun the need for a “well regulated militia” against an oppressive government, like American progressives do.
Looking at historical precedents, why are the French still celebrating the “Bastille Day” as a symbol of their revolution? The fortress didn’t serve only as a prison, it was also an armory.
Catalonia also lacks its own army, while it can rely on its own police force, the “Mossos d’Esquarda”. Not enough to stop the Spanish forces to regain control of the situation with ease.
4. Lack of international recognition or foreign support.
We once again look at past examples: the French fought on the side of the American revolutionaries against the British; the British and the Russians fought on the side of the Greek in 1821. More recent examples, the US backed Slovenia, Bosnia, Croatia, Kosovo and Montenegro in the successive splits from Serbia-dominated Yugoslavia. Similarly the US is backing the Kurdish ambition in Syria, while the Russians backed the Crimeans in their secession from Ukraine.
No one backed Catalonia. Nor has anyone so far recognized its independence. Foreign backing generally comes from powers interested in destabilizing the country facing a secessionist movement. No one seems to be interested in destabilizing Spain right now.
Foreign support often provides the weaponry for the insurgents to succeed in overthrowing the oppressors; should a civil war start in Catalonia and should a foreign power start to provide weapons to the Catalan insurgents, the Spanish government could be forced to let Catalonia go or fight an extremely costly war. However, we are not at this point.
Catalans put their faith in the EU, but it was misguided if not plainly delusional as discussed previously.
5. The “snowflake” generation.
Mass crowd rallies waving flags can be inspiring. They can also be hard to control once in movement. Not every crowd is the same, though. Waving flags does not make you independent. Not even the unilateral declaration of independence makes you so. A conditio sine qua non for an aspiring sovereign state is the ability to control its territory and defend it. Catalonia doesn’t seem to be able to do that.
When you look at the crowds of Catalan nationalists, there’s a widespread support among the youth. None of them however did any military service whatsoever. This is a common issue in Western Europe. The last generation that fought a war, the Second World War, is either dead or on its way out. Since then, military service has been progressively abolished. New generations don’t know how to fight.
They also don’t seem to be aware of what exactly they were doing. The Spanish Constitution forbids secession, hence Catalan independence is a rebellion against the constitutional order and as such is being treated by the Spanish government: it’s a revolution. When the Spanish police reacted against the Catalan referendum, Catalan nationalists took it on social media to express their outrage against “fascist Spain”. The disdain seemed to be shared by many Westerners. However, in every other part of the world, and at any other point in history, events of this type would leave dead bodies on the floor, regardless of “fascism”.
We are not inciting violence with this, we are simply making a historical observation.
It seems that the great plan of Catalan nationalists for independence was “Step aside while I make a revolution, otherwise I’m going to call you names. On Twitter. And maybe make a video on Youtube and share it with my friends on Facebook.” That’s it.
While Kurds are fighting Islamic terrorists and brandishing AK-47s in Syria, Catalans are brandishing their Iphones. The former are fighting for independence, the latter look like they are attending a pop concert.
Catalans over-relied on social media outrage to support their cause, just to find out that after a few days, people go back to their lives and lose interest. Nobody lifted a finger in favour of Catalonia. Not even Catalans themselves. It might be that the region is still wealthy despite some problems, hence a civil war would result in more material loss than the Catalans are ready to put up with for the prize of independence. This is not how revolutions are done.
The Spanish public prosecutor on Thursday ordered the country"s High Court that the Catalonian secessionist leaders be jailed. An arrest warrant be issued for ousted Catalan president Carles Puigdemont and eight members of his former government.
Investigative magistrate Carmen Lamela issued the ruling on Thursday at the request of prosecutors who are pursuing a criminal case stemming from the declaration of secession the Parliament of Catalonia made Friday. The eight are Oriol Junqueras (Deputy First Minister, economy), Jordi Turull (spokesman), Raul Romeva (foreign affairs), Josep Rull (territory), Meritxell Borrás (public administration), Carles Mundó (justice), Dolors Bassa (work & social affairs), Joaquin Form (interior).
Earlier, the prosecutor"s office requested the jailing of Catalonian Vice-President Oriol Junqueras and seven other officials charged with rebellion, sedition and embezzlement of public funds, while the probe is ongoing, La Vanguardia reported. The prosecutor also asked the judge to issue a European arrest warrant for former leader Carles Puigdemont while also requesting that counselor Santi Vila, who resigned from government before Catalonia declared independence, be released on bail of €50,000.
The request comes hours after ousted Catalonian President Carles Puigdemont failed to appear before Spanish judges. He’s currently in Brussels, seeking "freedom and safety." Puigdemont’s Belgian lawyer Paul Bekaert said that he would “cooperate with Spanish and Belgian justice.”
On Friday, October 27 the prosecutor filed a complaint against the Catalonian government for crimes it considers “very serious.” The alleged crimes relate to Catalonia’s independence referendum in which the majority of voters opted to secede from Spain.
Yesterday, a statement from the “Legitimate Catalan Government” confirmed that former Catalan leader, Carles Puigdemont, would not, as expected, appear in court in Madrid today.
The Spain Report points out that Catalan public television, TV3, published extracts from a statement from the "legitimate government of Catalonia" in Brussels on Wednesday evening that denounced the accusations presented against Carles Puigdemont and 13 other former regional ministers and the Speaker of the Catalan Parliament, Carme Forcadell, and five former members of her Speaker"s Committee. The statement said Mr. Puigdemont and a group of former regional ministers would be staying in Brussels to "denounce this political trial" abroad, implying they would not return to Madrid by 9 a.m. tomorrow morning, when they have been ordered to appear at the National High Court. The statement said the prosecutor"s accusations—for rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds—were a "political trial" and the potential sentences—rebellion carries a maximum term of 30 years in jail—"disproportionate". The statement says Puigdemont and the others are not staying in Brussels "to evade justice but rather to demand it". It suggests the group will attempt to answer the judge"s questions from Brussels "using the mechanisms already foreseen in the European Union for these circumstances".
This morning, Spain’s El Pais newspaper asked what happens next now that Puigdemont failed to appear in court. According to El Pais, Puigdemont, as well as former members of the Catalan Cabinet Meritxell Borràs, Antoni Comín, Clara Ponsatí and Meritxell Serret, failed to appear.
So what happens next?
Ongoing cases
1) In the High Court, Judge Carmen Lamela has accepted the formal accusation of rebellion filed by the Spanish public prosecutor’s office against Puigdemont and 13 members of his former cabinet. The crime carries a possible sentence of 30 years in prison.
2) The former president is also being investigated by the Catalan High Court (TSJC) for disobedience, misusing public funds and making deliberately unlawful decisions as elected officials (known in Spanish as prevaricación).
A European Arrest Warrant?
1) Now that Puigdemont has failed to appear in the High Court, Judge Lamela could draw up a writ ordering him to be taken into custody.
2) Once this writ has been produced, Spanish judges can issue a European Arrest Warrant (EAW) – the European Union equivalent of the old extradition orders. Prosecutors must make a request for this arrest warrant to be issued.
3) This EAW would be handed over by the judge to the Spanish National Police, who will use the SIRENE office – part of the EU’s Schengen Information System – to transmit the warrant to Belgian police.
4) This mechanism entails the arrest of the individual named in the warrant. A Belgian judge would then be tasked with looking at the handover of that person to Spain. The EAW protocol has been in place in Spain since 2003 and was updated in 2014, partly to include the requirement that the initial request for the warrant comes from prosecutors (previously judges were able to draw up an EAW without involving prosecutors in the process). It was also updated to include the principle of proportionality, meaning that an EAW can only be issued when Spain believes the conditions for pre-trial custody exist in the case of the person named in the warrant.
EAWs are carried out between judges of different EU members states, and, as a point of difference with extradition orders, the governments of the relevant countries are not involved.
5) EAWs are regulated in Spanish legislation under Law 23 of 2014 covering the mutual recognition of penal resolutions in the EU. This rule imposes on Spain the obligation to comply with other EU legislation including a 2002 agreement on making the handover of detainees easier.
6. The procedure is fairly straightforward, on paper at least. The judicial system in the country notified usually agrees to the handover of the person named in the warrant in around 60 days.
Possible obstacles
There are, however, a number of legal avenues that can extend these time frames, according to judicial sources consulted by this paper.
1) This handover could take longer if the judge ordering the EAW has not exhausted all other possible means of questioning the suspect, including via video conference. However, in the case of crimes as serious of rebellion – as is the case with former Catalan premier Puigdemont – this excuse would carry little weight, according to judicial sources.
2) Another hurdle thwarting a rapid handover could be the fact that rebellion is not on the list of 32 crimes that are exempt, under European law, from “double classification.” In other words the crime of rebellion is on the books in both countries. Under Belgian law, rebellion has a slightly different definition from that of Spanish law, according to sources consulted. And even in Spain, the crime is not very well-defined. This could lead to Belgian judges to make an argument that they need to look closely at the subject in question and examine whether, under Belgian law, Puigdemont and fellow members of his government currently in Belgium are actually liable to prosecution. If a judge agrees to the handover of the detainees, those detainees could then appeal.
3) Although the simplified EAW system is based on “an elevated level of confidence” between EU member states, and on the fact that judicial resolutions in one country will be recognized by others, people named in these warrants can claim – and everything suggests Puigdemont will do this – that they are afraid their fundamental rights won’t be respected in Spain. Article 1.3 of the European legislation of 2002 opened the door to this possibility and has allowed Belgium to stop the handover of various ETA prisoners to Spain in the past.
With the Spanish Government continuing to escalate the confrontation with the former Catalonian leadership, we suspect that an arrest warrant is heading Carles Puigdemont’s way. Meanwhile, he chose to drink coffee in a Brussels café instead of appearing in a Madrid courtroom.
Here is the photo of Puigdemont having coffee in Brussels this morning when he was meant to be in court in Madrid. Caught by @adelgadoRnepic.twitter.com/Njr3niwpAh
Update (0920ET): A Spanish government spokesman has responded to Puigdemont"s address, saying that "Spain will not comment on comments by Puigdemont who is out of a job."
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As we detailed earlier, in a pre-record message this morning, Catalan separtist leader Carles Puigdemont urged Catalans to peacefully oppose Spain"s formal takeover of the region"s affairs.
Puigdemont said the activation of article 155 of the Spanish Constitution was illegitimate and called on Catalans to show "patience, perseverance" and faith in the future, and urged "democratic opposition" against Spanish government orders to sack his administration and dismiss the regional parliament.
As The Spain Report notes, he announced he Catalans must "continue defending" their new republic "with a sense of civic responsibility," adding "our will is to continue working to guarantee our democratic mandate".
The use of Article 155 to suspend home rule in Catalonia was a "premeditated attack on the majority will of Catalans" and "contrary" to democracy.
Puigdemont also called on pro-independence Catalans to be respectful of fellow Catalans who are in favor of Catalonia remaining within Spain. Puigdemont didn’t mention central government orders to remove him.
Presumably, Puigdemont"s calls suggest a strategy designed to compare Madrid"s forcefulness to Catalan"s peaceful protest, perhaps in an effort to garner more international favor - as most of the "developed" nations issued statements overnight declining to reecognize Catalonia and fully backing the establishment"s Spanish government.
Live broadcasts showed Puigdemont in a bar in the town of Girona at the time of the televised speech.
LATEST: Puigdemont was actually out drinking wine and having lunch in Girona at time of his pre-recorded message on TV3, @laSextaTV reports. pic.twitter.com/E40z58S6Qi
Puigdemont declined to speak to reporters when he left the bar shortly after the speech.
Meanwhile, Spain begins implementation of Article 155:
Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria takes over the management of the Catalonia area after Madrid took its autonomous status yesterday and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy fired the regional government, the agencies said, reports sega.
Spain"s Interior Minister Juan Ignacio Zoido is leading the Catalonian police after the chief of police, Jose Luis Trapero, was removed. Both decisions enter into force immediately.
However, La Vanguardia reports, members of the Catalan government don’t plan to accept being removed, citing sources it doesn’t name, though oit is unclear exactly what they will do. The Catalan government is reportedly preparing next steps in line with proclamation approved yesterday by the regional Parliament. Among the possibilities being weighed is calling constituent elections before the end of the year.
1. Madrid ignores the implementation of the declaration of independence
In many ways, it seems counter-intuitive to list this as the ‘most peaceful short term option’, not least because there is ostensibly no bigger insult to a peoples than to simply ignore their declaration of independence. This is ironically, not necessarily the case with Catalonia.
The very reason that Catalan independence was not declared on the 2nd of October is because the Catalan leadership are very moderate in their approach to the issue. Forgetting whether one finds the Catalan leaders inspiring or incipient, the fact of the matter is that they did not so much say “give me liberty or give me death” as they said “give me European values and give me those values on my terms at the soonest possible date after a period of polite discussions”.
Because Catalonia has shown the propensity to wait for a good faith negotiation partner during a very trying month and because furthermore, many Catalan politicians have insisted that they seek peace and cooperation whenever possible, the onus therefore is now very much on Madrid to de-escalate the situation.
Madrid could still go through with the technical firing of the Catalan government in order to administer the humdrum business of daily life in Catalonia for an interim period on their terms, but if Madrid were to officially adopt a position of ignoring the formal independence vote, it could still negotiate with independence leaders in another capacity.
The west, including Spain, continually speaks of ‘moderate rebels’ in places throughout the world, notably Syria, in spite of the fact that they are acting violently, using terrorism as their de-facto means of ‘political expression’, are mostly foreign proxies and are violating not only national but international law. With the exception of Catalonia violating Spanish law, included the much hated 1978 Spanish constitution, which many see as overtly Francoist in nature, none of this applies to Catalonia.
No one can reasonably say that Catalan independence supporters or their leaders are terrorists or post a direct threat to world peace as al-Qaeda, the FSA, Kurdish ethno-nationalists and ISIS do in places like Syria or Iraq. Furthermore, unlike Middle Eastern Kurds who are something of Israel’s de-facto regional puppets, Catalan independence movements have been part of Iberian history going back centuries. The Catalan struggle, in other-words, predates the creation of the dastardly Israeli colonial state, the birth of George Soros, the idea of the New World Order and the advent of neo-liberal economics. To therefore say that Catalan independence is about any of these things, as many have, fails to realise the long historical basis which underlies recent events in Catalonia.
Because of this, Madrid has nothing to lose, yet much to gain from engaging in negotiations with the leaders of the independence movement. Had Madrid negotiated directly with the leaders in Barcelona, the entire independence movement may have fizzled-out over time, in the same way that Brexit appears to be doing in another EU state, or otherwise, Madrid could have agreed to a situation whereby Catalonia settles on an Andorra like solution whereby Catalonia becomes a state formally protected by Spain (as Andorra is technically protected by France), while technically enjoying the desired benefits of EU membership which logically derive from the ‘protector’ state. Because of Catalonia’s size vis-a-vis Andorra, some sort of financial agreement could be agreed upon on a per annum basis.
Such a solution would require creativity, but crucially it requires no blood and could be arranged to create face-saving and money saving measures that cover both sides in terms of economic, political and even ego driven requirements and desires. It is still not too late to achieve this as the “slowly-slowly” attitude in Barcelona has not dramatically changed, in spite of recent dramatic events. In this sense, yesterday’s vote was more of a sign that Barcelona is not bluffing, that it is a sign that Madrid is now an automatic enemy of the largely unrecognised new Catalan Republic.
2. Barcelona initiates a dialogue process….and it works
It must be re-stated that one of the reasons Catalonia implemented a declaration of independence yesterday was because it felt it had no option to do anything else. If Catalonia’s leaders did nothing while Madrid moved to abolish their autonomy, they would have looked weak before the eyes of their constituents and ineffective in the eyes of the world from which they will need to garner support, in one way or another.
Thus, we now know that Catalonia’s leaders have the collective strength to do what they said they would do. But can they now do something more difficult? Can they offer the wider world an option that cannot be refused?
Catalonia has gone out of its way to do that which, for example, the Kurds in the Middle East have not done. While Kurds have resorted to armed conflict and terrorism in their disregard for both national and international law, Catalans have practised entirely peaceful civil disobedience in arguable violation of national law, but in full compliance with EU law which is theoretically superior to national law in many cases, among member states.
The fact that Catalans are being totally disregarded by most EU states and the EU itself, is symptomatic of double-standards in the west, whereby an armed terrorist in Asia or Africa is a ‘freedom fighter’, but peaceful individuals initiating a controversial but totally non-violent political process in the west, are somehow bandits. Furthermore, Catalonia is a regional crisis and for the EU, an existential crisis. Such a reality is miles away from the very real security crisis that Turkey, Syria and Iran felt when Iraqi Kurds, machine guns in hand, voted in a secession referendum which went beyond their legally defined autonomous borders within Iraq. Again, none of this applies to Catalonia.
If followed to its logical conclusion, Catalonia can now call on international mediators to instigate a process for dialogue that Madrid simply could not ignore. If such a process fails, it will represent a total failure of the so-called international community. If not a single nation, not the UN, not a former UN Secretary General, not a single peace activist can step forward and heed Catalonia’s calls for a truly international dialogue process to be organised, then there truly is no international community to speak of. It certainly behoves Catalonia to attempt and find out.
3. Duelling governments in Barcelona
Madrid is set to appoint a new interim leadership in Barcelona who will answer directly to the Spanish government, while calling for new elections to form a Catalan parliament in December. The effectiveness of such a move depends on the de-facto current leaders in Barcelona (Puigdemont et al.) and their supporters simply going away quietly.
If anyone thinks it is likely that after a long standoff which was capped by the declaration of a Catalan Republic will end the moment Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy sends ‘his man’ to Barcelona, then they are not living in the real world.
With two competing governments in Barcelona, the short term confusion and deadlock could lead to disaster, as shall be explored in the following two, very un-peaceful possibilities.
4. Mass arrests of Catalan independence leaders
Spain has already set a worrying precedent by arresting Catalan independence organisers on sedition charges. There are now open fears that such a precedent could now lead to the arrest of the entire de-facto leadership in Barcelona, as well as many members of the Catalan parliament (even though the vote for independence was conducted via secret ballot).
This would not only set-off an uncontrollable chain reaction of fear and almost certainly violence in Catalonia and beyond, but would set off a chain of lawsuits which would test the primacy of national law versus EU and international law. If Madrid were to invoke the most neo-Francoist elements of its constitution and subsequently conduct mass arrests reminiscent of the 1930s, it would not only embolden more Catalans than ever in their desire to breakaway from Spain permanently, but it will be guaranteed to keep both the European Court of Human Rights and the European Court of Justice busy for years if not decades to come.
The legal issues which currently exist, could and should be solved through mediation followed by an accord. However, if mass arrests of prominent Catalan leaders are conducted by Spain, a larger legal Pandora’s Box would be flung open and more importantly, any claim of a peaceful regional dispute would be forever lost. Instead, it would be a repeat of the 1930s in more ways than one, combined with the legal labyrinth of 21st century judicial mechanisms.
5. Civil War
Depending of various push-pull factors at play, a repeat, however microcosmic, of the 1930s Spanish Civil War could take place. If Madrid cracks down hard on political leaders, demonstrators and other civil bodies in Catalonia, it is possible that Catalans could find the means to arm themselves and fight back.
If an armed struggle took place in the heart of the EU, not only would it quite possibly be the end of Spain and western Europe as we know it, but it could be the end of the EU…full stop.
Whatever would be leftover, would by definition be unrecognisable and only a great deal of effort to put the region back together could restore peace.
For mercenary thinkers who see questions of war and peace simply in economic terms, it is worth saying this: for the moment, the Catalan crisis has not drastically impacted global markets. If things escalate into an armed civil conflict, it will impact markets, but primarily in Europe with some ricochets in North America. The rest of the world will remain financially stable.
This will be the ultimate sign that an Iberian peninsula which once ruled large quarters of the world, is now reduced to a corner of a European Union that far from leading the world, can now, barely lead itself.
In many ways, this will be the ultimate wake-up call.
Update 4: In a live TV address to the nation, Spain"s PM Rajoy just announced that it is a "sad day" in which Catalans showed "contempt" for democracy, and ignored the general interest; that the Catalan declaration is unacceptable to majority of Catalans, and that, as a result and as expected, he is firing Catalan president Carles Puigdment, the Catalan police chief, and the entire Catalan government as "prudence" and "serenity" are now needed: "we never wanted to reach this situation".
Ministries in the central government will assume powers of the Catalan administration.
The Prime Minister also announced he has dissolved the Catalan Parliament and called for snap elections to be held on December 21 which will be "free, legal and clean".
As The Spain Report adds, the central government also ordered all of Catalonia"s "embassies" abroad closed, along with the region"s publicly funded Diplocat diplomacy service, and sacked the director general of the Catalan Police (Mossos), Pere Soler.
Rajoy also said Spain has enough resources to "recover normality" in Catalonia within the law and thanked the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) and Ciudadanos for their support.
* * *
Update 3: Spain’s top prosecutor will seek rebellion charges for those responsible for a vote in favor of declaring an independent Catalan republic, an official Spanish spokesman said according to The Independent. The spokesman said the prosecutor is looking to determine if the charges should be limited to the Catalan cabinet, including President Carles Puigdemont and Vice President Oriol Junqueras, or if they should also include members of the parliament’s governing board and lawmakers.
The official, who spoke under condition of anonymity in line with internal rules, said the charges could be brought as early as Monday. As Mr. Maza warned,"The rebellion crime is punishable by 30 years in prison if it is a crime of considerable gravity, of course...if the Catalan police did not comply with the order, Spain would take over control of the force."
As a reminder, and as The Spain Report tweeted what happened the last time the Catalan republic was declared, in 1934:, there was i) State of war; ii) Lasted 10 hours and iii) led to 46 dead in Barcelona.
Puigdemont has called on fellow separatists to remain peaceful ahead of the expected crackdown by Spanish authorities. Facing a crowd of hundreds of supporters packing Catalonia’s parliament building, he said: “In the days ahead we must keep to our values of pacificism and dignity. It’s in our, in your hands to build the republic.” Good luck.
* * *
Update 2: Article 155 is now official, after Spain"s Constitutional Court lists the series of measures allowing central government to force Catalonia regional administration to obey national law. The two-page document was published Friday in Spain"s Official Gazette, in step necessary to becoming law. The measures approved by the Senate follow government proposal, under Article 155 of Constitution. By way of explanation, the actions were taken due to “extraordinary seriousness of the breach of constitutional obligations and the carrying out actions gravely against the general interest” by Catalonia institutions.
As Article 155 was codified by publication in the Spanish Official Gazette, at the top of the list published by the Constitutional Court was the potential removal from office of the region’s president, vice-president and cabinet. The list was published along with a two-page addendum of modifications by the Senate. The Catalan administration will continue to function, though the central government in Madrid can veto its decisions. Additionally, the region’s police, the 17,000-member Mossos d’Esquadra, must take direct orders from Madrid, which can supplement their role with national police, which already are under control of the central government. The measures took immediate effect on publication.
* * *
Update: Just minutes after the Catalan government voted for Independence from Spain, with a former Decision of Independence likely to follow momentarily, over in Madrid wasted no time in responding, and moments ago, with 214 for and 47 against, voted to approve Article 155 of Spain"s 1978 Constitution, aka the Nuclear Option which has never been used before, suspending home rule in Catalonia, and giving Prime Minister Rajoy the power to oust the Catalan government.
What happens next?
Spain will promptly move to remove the Catalan president, suspend his ministers and assume authority over the region"s public media, police and finances, the only question is how, and what this process will look like.
Indeed, as Bloomberg reported earlier, Spanish politician Garcia Albiol tweeted that Spanish Prime-Minister Mariano Rajoy will restore democracy in Catalonia, adding that courts will reprimand the “plotters.” Furthermore, Spain"s El Pais reported that rebellion charges will likely be leveled soon at Catalans for Secession.
An angry Rajoy spoke to reporters in Madrid after the Catalan parliament declared independence and said that "the Catalan parliament has approved something that in the opinion of the great majority of people doesn’t just go against the law but is a criminal act because it supposes declaring something that is not possible which is the independence of Catalonia.”
He also said that he will address Spain at the end of the evening.
In terms of immediate next steps, there will be a Spanish Cabinet Meeting, which has been moved ahead to 5pm local time.
After that, things may get delicate, especially if Spain sends in the proverbial cavalry.
Incidentally, here is the historic moment Catalonia declared independence from Spain:
* * * It"s Official! The Catalan Parliament has just voted for independence - 70 "Yes" (needed 68), 10 "No", 2 blank.
As AP reports, Catalan separatist lawmakers pass motion to establish a new republic independent of Spain, as the opposition boycotts the vote...
“We constitute the Catalan Republic, as an independent and sovereign country, under the rule of law,” said the preamble to the resolution, read out by speaker Carme Forcadell before the ballot.
Catalan vice-president Oriol Junqueras tweeted...
Sí. Hem guanyat la llibertat per construir un nou país.
What happens next is anyone"s guess, but we suspect it will involve heavy police state intervention and the Franco-ian regime that separatists fear will rear its ugly head.
The Washington Post reports:
“The next move could be a formal declaration of statehood, less than a month after a referendum that backed the push for independence […]
If the Senate invokes the never-before-used Article 155 of Spain"s 1978 constitution, the central government could move swiftly to remove the Catalan president, suspend his ministers and assume authority over the region"s public media, police and finances.”
The Spanish government will undoubtedly now move swiftly to implement Article 155.
Spanish PM Rajoy immediately tweeted "I call tranquility to all Spaniards. The rule of law will restore the legality in Catalonia. MR"...
Pido tranquilidad a todos los españoles. El Estado de Derecho restaurará la legalidad en Cataluña. MR
And Spanish stocks dumped - erasing all oif yesterday"s hype-fueled hope-buying...
* * *
Live Feed: Catalan Speaker reads the independence declaration before the vote...
“We constitute the Catalan Republic, as an independent and sovereign country, under the rule of law,” said the proposed resolution, read out by the speaker before the vote.
* * *
Update (0900ET): The Catalan Parliament confirms the secession proposal will be voted in a secret ballot. This immediately led to the PP MPs leaving the parliament chamber.
* * *
Update (0850ET): Catalan"s opposition party members have just abandoned parliamnet as voting begins on minor resolutions (ahead of the big "independence" decision) but Rajoy"s PP remains in session. Additionally, the separatists have called for the ballot to be private.
* * *
Update (0820ET): CUP Deputy Carles Riera rages that the time has come to "build the republic in a context of fight and resistance."
“We propose that Catalonia becomes an independent state in the form of republic."
“Today we start the removal of the 1978 regime."
As Spain"s prime minister urged the Senate on Friday to grant his government special constitutional measures that would allow it to take control of Catalonia"s autonomous powers and halt the region"s independence bid.
* * *
As we detailed earlier, after yesterday"s chaotic Spanish event rollercoaster, when the Catalan leader Carles Puidgement was going to press ahead with independence only to change his mind, and propose elections, before reversing again and punting the independence decision to parliament, we hoped to get some further clarity on how he’s planning to proceed. Today, the chaos continues.
First, Bloomberg reported that Catalonia would seek approval for elections from Madrid:
The rebel government of Catalonia is making a last ditch effort to win concessions from Madrid. According to a person familiar with the matter, Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont, wants to convince supporters to accept regional elections instead of a declaration of independence. A senior Catalan official will ask the Spanish government to suspend the process of seizing direct control of the region if there is a snap election.
However, shortly afterwards, The Spain Report carried breaking news that the secessionists would debate a motion to declare independence in today’s session of the Catalonian Parliament.
MAJOR BREAKING: Separatist Parties Register Motion To Declare Independence Of Catalonia In Regional Parliament https://t.co/oa4fhhwXgc
Catalan separatist parties—Junts Pel Sí ("Together For Yes") and the CUP (Popular Unity Candidacy)—have registered a motion to declare the independence of Catalonia in the regional parliament.
A copy of the document published by Spanish media included the phrase: "We constitute the Catalan Republic as an independent sovereign democratic, social state of law".
The text would also approve the activation of the secession bill approved by the regional chamber at the beginning of September and voided by the Constitutional Court and "begin the constituent process".
* * *
The Speaker"s Committee is currently deciding on which motions to accept for the second part of the session in the Catalan Parliament on Article 155, which is due to begin at 12 p.m.
At the same time, there are unconfirmed reports that police are closing off roads around the regional parliament. Meanwhile, the Spanish senate has been debating the implementation of Article 155 in Madrid. Rajoy told lawmakers that Spain faced an exceptional situation and asked them to support his proposal on Article 155. The Spain Report shows video of Rajoy receiving a standing ovation.
Backed into a corner by his own hardliners and Rajoy’s refusal to give him a dignified way out, Catalan President Carles Puigdemont will address the regional parliament in Barcelona as demonstrators clamor for a declaration of independence. After a day of high drama that saw Puigdemont caught between the might of the Spanish state and the anger of the street, western Europe’s worst constitutional crisis for decades may be coming to a head with the separatist leader running out of options…
The day of confusion saw the president make a televised address after two postponements, lawmakers quit his party and a senior Catalan official jump ship, all while Spanish ministers were repeating their mantra that the Catalans must be brought to heel. The Spanish stock market posted its biggest gain since Oct. 5 only to pare the advance as events unfolded. Puigdemont said he had considered calling the regional vote, but he didn’t get the concessions he sought from officials in Madrid. "I tried to get the guarantees to carry out these elections, but didn’t get a responsible answer,” he said.
Last night, reports from the secessionist camp implied that independence would be declared.
"We are winning," Lluis Corominas, the head of Puigdemont’s PDeCat group, told lawmakers on Thursday night. "We should materialize the effects of the Oct. 1 referendum and implement them." That’s code for declaring independence.
Maybe they are correct, but until then this remains a dangerously fluid and volatile situation.
In the latest plot reversal in what become a nail-biting Spanish drama, in which the narrative changes by the hour, moments ago Catalonia president Puigdemont made a televised statement refuted earlier reports he had capitulated to Spanish demands, and said he rejects calls for snap elections. Saying there are "not sufficient guarantees" for elections to take place, Puigdemont said he needs to exhaust all options for solution, and said that he was ready to call election.
"My duty was to try", he said in a statement to reporters shortly after 5 p.m. on Thursday quoted by The Spain Report. "My responsibility was to explore all of the options in my hand to the very end."
"No one will be able to say that I have not been ready to make sacrifices to guarantee dialogue."
"It is now the Catalan Parliament that will have to decide on the response to the application of Article 155", he added, in reference to the article of the Spanish Constitution that the central government will use—for the first time in the modern democratic period—to suspend home rule in a Spanish region.
Outside Catalan government headquarters in Barcelona, separatist supporters filled the square with chants of "independence" after Mr. Pugidemont made his announcement.
A session of the Catalan Parliament it due to begin at 6 p.m.
Puigdemont"s latest decision - which may yet be reversed in this ongoing political whirlwind - is sure to infuriate Madrid, which earlier in the day said it was happy with the Catalan decision to call elections. It would also mean that Spain will shortly announce it is seizing control from the Catalan government, and could potentially arrest Puigdemont in prison, even though the local leaders has not formally declared independence.
Meanwhile, in Madrid, a session of the Spanish Senate commission responsible for the Article 155 process has begun. The Deputy Prime Minister, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, has formally asked the commission to approve the measures the government has asked for.
A worst case scenario would be for Madrid to announce the confrontation between Madrid and Barcelona is escalatig further, with Spain clamping down on the region"s autonomy, and leading to a far more chaotic outcome.
Some of you may be confused as to why a U.S. citizen living in Colorado has become so completely obsessed with what’s going on in Spain. Bear with me, there’s a method to my madness.
I believe what’s currently happening in Spain represents a crucial microcosm for what we’ll see sweep across the entire planet over the next ten years.
Some of you will want to have a discussion about who’s right and who’s wrong in this particular affair, but that’s besides the point. It doesn’t matter which side you favor, what matters is that Madrid/Catalonia is an example of the forces of centralization duking it out with forces of decentralization.
Madrid represents the nation-state as we know it, with its leaders claiming Spain is forever indivisible according to the constitution. Madrid has essentially proclaimed there’s no possible avenue to independence from a centralized Spain even if various regions decide in large number they wish to be independent. This sort of attitude will be seen as unacceptable and primitive by increasingly large numbers of humans in the years ahead. Catalonia should be seen as a canary in the coal mine. The forces of decentralization are rising, but entrenched centralized institutions and the bureaucrats running them will become increasingly terrified, panicked and oppressive.
As I’ve discussed, this isn’t coming out of nowhere. Humanity’s current established centralized institutions and nation-states have become clownishly corrupt, merely existing to protect and enrich the powerful/connected as opposed to benefiting the population at large. As such, legitimacy has been shattered and people have begun to demand a new way. Whether we see this with the rising popularity of Bitcoin, or the UK decision to leave the EU, evidence is everywhere and we’ve already passed the point of no return. This is precisely why EU leaders are rallying around Madrid. They’re scared to death and fear they might be next. They’re probably right.
Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll see sufficient change in this regard without hardship. This hardship is likely to occur as the old paradigm becomes more authoritarian and paranoid as it lashes out in an attempt to solidify and expand control. Of course, we’re already seeing this all around us, but it’s likely to get even worse in the years ahead. Don’t be afraid of it, understand that it’s coming and accept that this is all part of the change process. Did you really think control-freak authoritarians would give up without a fight?
If you want to see how a control-freak authoritarian responds to a situation, just look at how Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy has responded to Catalonia. People like him simply can’t help themselves, it’s in their nature and all they know is the fist of violence. As I noted in last week’s post on the topic, those in favor of Catalan independence have thus far played the situation flawlessly. For this to turn out positively for the forces of decentralization, the Spanish authorities must be encouraged to act increasingly thuggish, which will in turn bolster more and more popular support for independence. This has already started to happen, and will likely accelerate in the weeks ahead as Rajoy is about to make the biggest mistake of all by activating Article 155.
It’s really important to understand how irresponsibly aggressive Madrid is about to become before moving on. Here’s some background courtesy of Bloomberg:
Rajoy on Saturday shocked many observers with plans to clear out the entire separatist administration in Barcelona and take control of key institutions including public media and the regional police force, the Mossos d’Esquadra. Spain’s chief prosecutor said that if Puigdemont declares independence he would face as much as 30 years in jail and signaled that he could be arrested immediately.
“Catalan government officials and many within the Mossos and Catalan media are not just going to stand down without a fight,” said Caroline Gray, a lecturer in politics and Spanish at Aston University in the U.K. who specializes in nationalist movements. “The big question for me, really, is how Madrid is actually going to implement its proposed actions in Catalonia.”
Rajoy is wielding the untested powers of Article 155 of Spain’s 1978 Constitution to try to impose central government control on Catalonia. The aim ultimately is to trigger regional elections within six months.
Madrid is making a mistake of enormous historical significance here. First, you don’t need to be a genius to see that him forcibly taking over control over key aspects of Catalan civil society will only make the independence movement grow in strength, passion and numbers. Second, does Rajoy really think he’s going to be able to make this happen without enormous amounts of civil unrest? Not a chance.
Here’s some of what’s already being planned, according to Bloomberg:
Catalan separatists are mobilizing a human shield to block efforts by the Spanish authorities to take control of the breakaway region as both sides prepare to escalate the political conflict.
Groups will concentrate their activists around the regional government’s headquarters in Barcelona’s Gothic quarter and the nearby parliament building, according to two people familiar with the plans, asking not to be identified by name. They expect Spanish police to use force to try to shut down the administration and will put their bodies on the line, said one person.
“We are calling for a peaceful and democratic defense of the institutions,” Lluis Corominas, the leader of the main separatist group in the Catalan Parliament, said at a press conference in Barcelona. Regional President Carles Puigdemont has called for similar action.
The separatists have shown they can rally support. A crowd estimated by local police at around 450,000 joined him to protest in central Barcelona after Rajoy announced his plans. CUP, a pro-secessionist party, on Monday called for mass civil disobedience in Catalonia, Ara newspaper reported.
The key dates this week will be on Thursday and Friday. Thursday’s when the Catalan assembly is set to meet to prepare a response to Spain taking over the region by force. Friday is when Spain’s national Senate will vote to implement direct rule. In my opinion, it would be a big mistake for the Catalan government to declare independence at this stage. Madrid needs to continue to be seen as the unreasonable aggressor, which is what will happen if article 155 is activated Friday. For Catalonia to succeed, the public must become even more outraged than it already is. Any attempt by Madrid at taking over Catalan civil society by force will achieve this in spades.
If I’m correct in my forecast, the entire world will be looking at similar forces of decentralization battling it out with discredited, entrenched centralized power structures over the next decade or so. I think this will result in virtually all of our current institutions collapsing and being replaced by a completely different paradigm. In my view, the new paradigm will be increasingly defined by decentralized structures. Terms like “peer-to-peer,” “distributed” and “direct democracy” will become increasingly ubiquitous as we begin to lay down the foundations for a far less top-down, centralized and authoritarian approach to human affairs.
This isn’t to say the process will be easy or smooth, but that’s where I think all of this is headed. The struggle between Madrid and Catalonia represents a high-profile and early example of this struggle and those of us who wish for a more decentralized world need to pay very close attention since many lessons can be learned from this historic crisis.
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Following Catalan President Puigdemont"s address yesterday accusing Madrid of "the worst attack since Franco," the Spanish government has urged Catalonians to accept direct control from Madrid and ignore seditious instructions from the pro-independence leaders.
Spanish Foreign Minister Alfonso Dastis responded on Sunday with the call to obey Madrid.
“We are going to establish the authorities who are going to rule the day-to-day affairs of Catalonia according to the Catalan laws and norms ... I hope everyone will disregard whatever instructions they will be planning to give because they will not have the legal authority to do that.”
However, Dastis sought to calm nerves in the region, saying Madrid would not conduct arrests among the pro-independence leadership, though two prominent secessionists were detained on court order this month on allegations of sedition.
“All the government is trying to do, and reluctantly, is to reinstate the legal order, to restore the constitution but also the Catalan rules and proceed from there,” Dastis told BBC TV.
"We are not going to arrest anyone."
Of course, Dastis could not help himself but fall back on the establishment"s "excuse du jour" for anything that does not fit with the maintenance of the status quo... "There has been a lot of alternative facts and fake news"
So just how will Madrid take control of Catalonia?
Below are details of the powers the Spanish government plans to assume for a maximum six months before regional elections are held as set out in a proposal to the upper house Senate. As Reuters reports, the measures were formulated under a constitutional provision never before invoked in Spain’s 40 years of democracy.
DIRECT RULE
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is asking for authorization to sack the regional government including president Carles Puigdemont and his deputy Oriol Junqueras, high-profile figures in the independence drive who organized a popular vote on secession on Oct. 1 in defiance of Madrid.
Central government ministries will take over the regional administration until calling fresh elections within six months of direct rule coming into force.
On Saturday, Rajoy said he wanted to convene a vote “as soon as we get back to institutional normality”.
The Catalan parliament will retain a representative role, but the government will operate under the supervision of bodies chosen or created for the purpose by Madrid.
POLICE
The new administrators will take control of the Mossos d‘Esquadra regional police force, which has become embroiled in the controversy over the independence bid after allegedly failing to act to stop the referendum or protect national police who were drafted in to provide extra security.
The Mossos, whose chief is under investigation on suspicion of sedition, will have to act on direct orders from their new bosses. If deemed necessary, Mossos officers may be replaced by national police.
FINANCES
The Economy Ministry has already increased its control over regional finances, to block the use of state funds to organize the secession bid, and started paying directly for essential services. Under the new proposal, Madrid keeps financial control.
PUBLIC MEDIA
Widely-watched Catalan public television TV3 will come under central control. Madrid’s proposal to the Senate says this will ensure the information transmitted is “true, objective and balanced, in line with political, social and cultural pluralism, and territorial balance”.
FORMAL APPROVAL
The Senate, where Rajoy’s People’s Party has a majority, will vote on the proposal on Oct. 27. The opposition Socialist and Ciudadanos parties are backing Rajoy.
After the measures are approved, they can be activated immediately or put on hold to be implemented in the future. Puigdemont could call an election himself before the government’s plan comes into action, in which case direct rule would likely not be implemented.
Which would leave Catalan governed by ministers of a party that got just 8.5% of the vote at the last election...
Catalonia"s separatists were weighing their options Sunday, according to AFP, after Spain took drastic steps to stop the region from breaking away by dissolving its separatist government and forcing new elections.
Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont and his regional executive -- who sparked Spain"s worst political crisis in decades by holding a banned independence referendum on October 1 -- will be stripped of their jobs and their ministries taken over under measures announced Saturday by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.
"Yesterday there was a fully-fledged coup against Catalan institutions," said Catalan government spokesman Jordi Turull.
"What happens now, with everyone in agreement and unity, is that we will announce what we will do and how," he told Catalunya Radio.
Ahead of a meeting of Catalan parties Monday to organise a crucial session of the regional parliament to debate next steps, Turull insisted on RAC1 radio that elections were "not on the table".
Political analysts warn that Madrid faces a serious struggle in practical terms to impose control over the region.
Potential scenarios include Catalan police and civil servants refusing to obey orders from central authorities.
"What is going to happen if they don"t abide by it?" said Xavier Arbos Marin, a constitutional law professor at the University of Barcelona, raising the prospect of the government trying to "take them out by force".
He said there is fierce debate among experts over whether the government"s actions are even legal.
Independence supporters may also seek to scupper the plans through civil disobedience, such as surrounding regional ministries to thwart officials sent by Madrid.
"If police try to enter one of the Catalan institutions, there will be peaceful resistance," said Ruben Wagensberg, spokesman for new activist group En Pie de Paz.
For now, the game of chicken continues with each side waiting for the other to act first but rest assured, says Spanish Foreign Mnister Dastis, if Catalonians just quietly accept the tyrannical rule of Madrid then...
“everything will be fine, there will be law and order, peaceful life and normal coexistence which is what we’re after.”
Update: The defiant Catalan leader, Carles Puigdemont, addressed Catalans, Spaniards, and the rest of Europe on TV saying that the Spanish states" imposition of Article 155 means "liquidation of our self-government and cancellation of the democratic will of Catalans". In other words, he made it quite clear that the region"s leaders would not accept direct rule imposed on the region by the Spanish government, as a political crisis that has rattled the economy and raised fears of prolonged unrest showed no signs of easing.
Puigdemont said Rajoy had set out to "humiliate" Catalonia in an "attack on democracy" and said removing powers from Catalonia was the "worst attack against the institutions and the people of Catalonia since the military dictatorship of Francisco Franco".
After taking party in peaceful demonstration, Puigdemont expressed his rejection of Madrid’s move, but stopped short of saying he would make good his threat to push ahead with the independence bid before direct rule takes effect.
“I ask the (Catalan) parliament to meet in a plenary session during which we, the representatives of the citizens’ sovereignty, will be able to decide over this attempt to liquidate our government and our democracy, and act in consequence,” Puigdemont said in a televised address.
Puigdemont also said Spain "closed the doors ot a request for talks, and should set a date to discuss the attack" and "Catalan institutions cannot accept attack by Spain."
In a striking accusation, the Catalan president said that "Catalan institutions dealt a coup by Spanish state." Puigdemont then switched to English to appeal to Europeans, says democracy also at risk in Europe: "Catalonia is an ancient European nation". He also announced a session in Catalan parliament to debate "the attempt to liquidate our self-government".
Puigdemont concluded by saying "Long live Catalonia" to which a silently listening crowd suddenly burst back into cheers and chanting.
However, as noted, Puigdemont did not specifically declare independence, but said Catalonia will not accept Madrid"s plan to curb region"s powers, leaving one tiny, final loophole.
The Senate vote that would give Madrid full control of Catalonia’s finances, police and public media and curb the powers of the regional parliament for up to six months is scheduled for next Friday. That could give the independence movement room to maneuver.
The regional parliament’s speaker, Carme Forcadell, said she would not accept Madrid’s move and accused Rajoy of a “coup.” “Prime Minister Rajoy wants the parliament of Catalonia to stop being a democratic parliament, and we will not allow this to happen,” Forcadell said in a televised speech.
In the latest can kicking yet, the Catalan assembly is expected to decide on Monday whether to hold a session to formally proclaim the republic of the region. Catalan media have said Puigdemont could dissolve the regional parliament and call elections by next Friday. Under Catalan law, those elections would take place within two months.
That would enable Puigdemont to go the polls earlier than envisaged by Rajoy, who spoke of a six-month timetable, and to exploit the anti-Madrid sentiment running high in the region.
According to Reuters, pro-independence groups have previously mustered more than 1 million people onto the streets in protest at Madrid’s refusal to negotiate a solution.
* * *
As we detailed earlier, with Spain officially pulling the trigger on Article 155, and activating the Spanish Constitutional "nuclear option" this morning, when PM Rajoy said he would seize control of the Catalan government, fire everyone and force new elections in six months, attention has shifted to the Catalan response. And as we waited for the official statement by Catalan separatist president Carles Puigdemont, expected at 9pm local time, we found him taking to the streets, where he led hundreds of thousands of independence supporters in protest around Barcelona on Saturday, shouting "freedom" and "independence" following the stunning news from Madrid earlier on Saturday.
The protest in the center of the Catalan capital had initially been called to push for the release of the leaders of two hugely influential grassroots independence organisations, accused of sedition and jailed pending further investigation. But it took on an even angrier tone after Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced his government would move to dismiss the region"s separatist government, take control of its ministries and call fresh elections in Catalonia.
According to municipal police, over 450,000 people rallied on Barcelona"s expansive Paseo de Gracia boulevard, spilling over on to nearby streets, many holding Catalonia"s yellow, red and blue Estelada separatist flag.
Catalan regional vice-president Oriol Junqueras and Catalan regional president Carles Puigdemont attend a demonstration on October 21, 2017 in Barcelona
Protesters greeted Puigdemont"s arrival at the rally with shouts of "President, President." The rest of his executive was also there.
For at least some locals, the time to split from Spain has come: "It"s time to declare independence," said Jordi Balta, a 28-year-old stationery shop employee quoted by AFP, adding there was no longer any room for dialogue.
Others disgree: "The Catalans are completely disconnected from Spanish institutions, and particularly anything to do with the Spanish state," said Ramon Millol, a 45-year-old mechanic.
Meritxell Agut, a 22-year-old bank worker, said she was "completely outraged and really sad." "They can destroy the government, they can destroy everything they want but we"ll keep on fighting."
Catalonia is roughly split down the middle on independence, but residents cherish the autonomy of the wealthy, northeastern region, which saw its powers taken away under the dictatorship of General Francisco Franco. Which is why, as many have warned, Madrid"s move could anger even those against independence.
Barcelona"s Mayor Ada Colau, who opposes the independence drive, tweeted: "Rajoy has suspended the self-government of Catalonia for which so many people fought. A serious attack on the rights and freedoms of everyone."
Meanwhile, the anger keeps rising: as a police helicopter hovered above, protesters booed and gave it the finger. "I wish they would just go," said Balta, looking up at the sky.
The Spanish government"s proposed measures still have to be approved by the Senate. But the upper house is majority-controlled by Rajoy"s ruling Popular Party and he has secured the support of other major parties, meaning they will almost certainly go through.
Puigdemont is expected to make a statement at 9 p.m. For Catalonia, and Spain, it will - literally - mean the difference between independence and remaining part of Spain. It could also mean the difference between peace and a violent crackdown by Madrid on what it has seen since day one as an illegal independence process. For the Catalan leader, the stakes are huge: El Pais reported Puigdemont faces a charge of sedition, punishable by up to 30 years in prison, if he formally declares independence or tries to change the Spanish constitution.
