Despite growing expectations that Catalan separatist fervor had abated in the aftermath of the post-independence fiasco, consensus was once again set for disappointment and on Thursday night, Spain was thrown back into chaos after the three Catalan separatist parties, Junts per Catalunya, Republican Catalan Left and the CUP, held on to a small but critical majority in the Catalan regional parliamentary election, dealing a stunning rebuke to Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his attempt to bury the Catalan independence movement.
With virtually all of the vote counted, the separatists held on to 70 seats, down from 72 in the 2015 election and 1 less than the initial exit polls predicted, just weeks after PM Mariano Rajoy fired the former first minister, Carles Puigdement and his entire government after the held what Madrid dubbed an "illegal referendum" and declared independence on October 27. Yet while the separatists won as a group, the biggest individual winner was the Ciudadanos party, which gained 300,000 more votes and 12 more seats compared to its 2015 position. It was also the single biggest party to emerge from today"s election with a total of 37 seats. Meanwhile for Rajoy"s People"s Party, the result was a disaster as it finished in last place among the mainstream parties with just three seats.
But even more importantly, it was a personal victory for Carles Puigdemont, the ousted Catalan president who campaigned in self-imposed exile from Brussels. His Junts per Catalunya emerged as the most-popular separatist party, handing him a mandate to lead the secession campaign, after Junts per Catalunya beat Oriol Junqueras and Republican Catalan Left to lead the separatist block. As The Spain Report noted, Junts per Catalunya obtained slightly more than 900,000 votes and 34 seats. Esquerra won slightly fewer than 900,000 votes but only 32 seats. The radical-left, pro-independence CUP lost six of its ten seats and about half of its votes.
The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC, Miquel Iceta) gained 50,000 votes and one seat.
The Popular Party in Catalonia, led by Xavier García Albiol, lost eight of its eleven seats, dropping to just three, and, like the CUP, approximately half of its votes. As
Catalunya en Comú Podem, the Podemos brand for these regional elections, lost three seats compared to its previous brand result in 2015, falling to eight seats.
Both blocks obtained more votes than in 2015 due to a turnout that rose six points to 82% compared to 2015.
And while the Ciudadanos ascent was remarkable, the take home of the night is that in this implicit referendum, the Catalan separatist sentiment once again prevailed as Carles Puigdement observed.
Speaking in a press conference in Brussels, the deposed Catalan president said that "the people of Catalonia have given a lesson to the world: the Catalan republic has beaten the monarchy of the 155." He was referring to the Constitutional Article 155 which the Spanish government used to take control of Catalan government. "The Spanish state has been defeated" Puigdement said and added that "Election results mean reparation, rectification and restitution are needed."
The deposed leader also said that "the legitimate government must return immediately power in Catalonia", envisioning of course, himself.
He concluded by claiming that "things are even better for secessionists today than they were two years ago, as the group has gained parliamentary power" and threatened that "if PM Rajoy continues to apply the same recipes he will continue to get the same results."
Meanwhile, baffling many traders, the EURUSD has yet to respond to today"s election, having traded in a tight 10 pip range since the unexpected exit polls first came out. Indeed, as Citi reminds us, "Remember, Spanish PM Rajoy called this election hoping for this faction to loose momentum." Considering the separatists preserve their majority, that hardly what happened.
Also observing the inert Euro, Bloomberg cautions that other Spanish assets may well move tomorrow, perhaps violently.
Polls had been pointing to a divided parliament and a confusing mess of options, and some bulls had even been buying Spanish assets as a bet on a good night for the constitutionalists. So the solid win for the separatists should mean Spanish stocks and bonds decline tomorrow.
It"s pretty clear that there will be more disruption than markets were pricing in. I would expect Ibex futures to fall on the open. After the referendum in October, the index fell 5.4% in three days before recovering. This selloff should be considerably less dramatic and equally short-lived.
Interestingly, Spain"s dollar bonds have been selling off for the last couple of days, while the euro debt has outperformed, suggesting there were different perceptions of the poll among different investor bases.
In summarizing today"s event, Bloomberg asked rhetorically "has there been a shift in Catalan politics" and answered:
After all the drama, the balance of power looks almost the same as two years ago, when the secessionists bloc won 72 seats compared to 70 now. The left-wing radicals of the CUP party saw their support shrivel but Puigdemont will again need their four seats for a majority
So what happens now? Well, the secessionists will seek to overcome their differences to form a government. Rajoy has made his own position clear. He will not tolerate an illegal challenge to the rule of Spanish law and reserves the right to invoke constitutional powers again to ensure it is respected. The bottom line: "nothing was really solved in Catalan politics tonight and the secession crisis continues."
Few people are able to recognize their own mistakes. Many prefer to deny the truth becoming willfully oblivious to obvious facts. Why assume responsibility if there is such a thing as blame shifting - a true-and-tried method to get away with it? Pointing a finger at someone else to divert attention serves the purpose.
There is method to this madness and Western politicians have been resorting to blame-shifting tactic increasingly often. Each and everything going awry in the world is the fault of Russia. The drive of peoples for independence is a good example. Take Catalonia to illustrate the point.
The Spanish government said on Nov.10 that it had noted news manipulation about the Catalan crisis on social media originating from Russia’s territory. Spain"s government spokesman Inigo Mendez de Vigo said disinformation on social networks was a "serious issue." According to Spanish Defence Minister Maria Dolores de Cospedal, the government had established that "many messages and interventions via social networks come from Russian territory." She did not offer any specific examples to confirm the affirmation. Foreign Minister Alfonso Dastis said there was evidence of activity by Russian networks and hackers. The trolls are said to be spreading misinformation across social media to further "destabilize" Spain and the EU.
The issue was even raised at the EU foreign and defense ministers meeting on Nov.13-14, where Spain briefed the EU on the alleged interference. The debate comes after eight member states urged EU foreign service chief Federica Mogherini to build up the counter-propaganda cell in her service.
Spanish media have many times attacked Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik Spanish language services for instigating tensions in Catalonia, supporting the separatist movement. El Pais daily wrote an editorial on Nov. 10 denouncing "the intense campaign by Russian media that are close to the Kremlin," whose "propaganda machine" it accused of siding with the pro-independence movement.
NATO leadership chimed in. On Nov.9, US General Curtis Scaparrotti, the commander of NATO forces in Europe, called on Russia to stop “meddling” into European elections. He was concerned over Russia’s “malign influence’ in other countries. The Atlantic Council, a US-based think-tank close to NATO, has published a report suggesting that Russia was seeking to meddle in support of Catalan independence and to discredit the Spanish central government"s position that the referendum on independence held on Oct. 1 was illegal. El Pais, the Washington Times and Politico all issued publications alleging that an army of Russian bots had perfected their techniques of online influence and thus ensured the October 1 vote went down the path of separation.
If the accusations were true, it would mean that Russia-backed media networks operate to undermine Russia’s official position on the issue made clear in a Foreign Ministry’s statement. Russia has consistently voiced its respect for Spain’s territorial integrity.
Can anyone of sane mind believe that Russia’s “meddling” is the real reason to make over 40 percent of Catalans support independence?
Has Russia been behind the 95-year-old independence movement in Catalonia?
Has Russia made the Catalans’ language and culture distinct?
Did Russia make Francisco Franco oppress the Catalan people?
Has Russia provoked the economic crisis in Spain, which has served to magnify calls for Catalan independence?
Has Russia made Catalans believe that the current tax structure is unfair?
Has Russia made Madrid unwilling to renegotiate Catalonia’s autonomy agreement?
Has Russia written Spain’s constitution, which expressly prohibits a region from breaking away unilaterally?
Did Moscow order Spanish police to use brutal force, while preventing the unconstitutional vote?
If it didn’t count, why take such pains to stop it?
Did Russia make the EU abstain from mediation effort? And, finally, does Russia stand to gain from an independent Catalonia?
With many publications on the issue, no evidence has been produced to demonstrate a link between the Russian government and Catalonia vote.
Obviously, the use of the "Russian meddling" narrative seems to work as a distraction from the wrongdoing of the Spanish government. The fantasy provides a convenient scapegoat to avoid responsibility of the Spanish government for missing opportunities to launch meaningful political dialogue with Catalonia and mishandling of the vote.
Spain is by far not the only country to use the narrative to its own advantage. As Karl Sharro, a well-known British architect and satirist, commented on the results of UK elections, “The most disappointing thing about the UK election is there wasn"t even a hint of Russian interference. It"s like we don"t matter at all.”
Hundreds of thousands of people - 750,000 according to Barcelona police - backing Catalonia"s bid to secede from Spain clogged the streets in downtown Barcelona Saturday to demand the release of jailed separatist leaders.
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Close to a million people filled the length of the Avenue Marina that runs from the beach to Barcelona"s iconic Sagrada Familia church, while the jailed leaders" families made speeches.
As AP reports, the rally"s grassroots organizers called for 10 prominent members of the secessionist movement in the northeastern Spanish region to be freed from prison.
Eight former members of Catalonia"s dissolved Cabinet and two activists are in jail while Spanish authorities investigate their alleged roles in promoting an illegal declaration of independence last month in violation of Spain"s Constitution.
A separate court in Madrid granted bail on Thursday to another six Catalan lawmakers - including Catalan parliament"s speaker Carme Forcadell - also being investigated over the secession push. Forcadell was released after agreeing to renounce any political activity that went against the Spanish constitution, according to the court"s ruling, in effect banning her from campaigning for independence in the December election. Those terms threaten to undermine the independence movement just as cracks are starting to appear and tensions rise between the grassroots and their leaders.
Still, there were few cracks on display Saturday: "We want to tell the world that we want freedom for our prisoners and freedom for Catalonia," Agusti Alcoberro, the vice president of grassroots group National Catalan Assembly, told the crowd in Barcelona, the region"s capital.
Many of the protesters carried pro-independence "estelada" flags, with its white star and blue triangle superimposed over the traditional red-and-yellow Catalan colors.
"Look at all the people here," said 63-year-old Pep Morales, who was confident separatist parties would win in the 21 December election. "The independence movement is still going strong."
Many also held signs saying in Catalan "Freedom Political Prisoners" and wore yellow ribbons as a symbol of their demands.
Family members of the jailed separatists read messages from their loved ones to the crowd at the conclusion of the march.
While those separatist leaders now in jail obeyed a summons to appear in court in Madrid, deposed Catalan president Carles Puigdemont and four of his former ministers fled to Belgium, where they now await an extradition hearing to return them to Spain.
Addressing the rally in Barcelona via a video message shown on a large screen, Puigdemont said: "We need you all to be very active. We want to hear your voice, both those of us in Brussels and those in prison."
The Spanish public prosecutor on Thursday ordered the country"s High Court that the Catalonian secessionist leaders be jailed. An arrest warrant be issued for ousted Catalan president Carles Puigdemont and eight members of his former government.
Investigative magistrate Carmen Lamela issued the ruling on Thursday at the request of prosecutors who are pursuing a criminal case stemming from the declaration of secession the Parliament of Catalonia made Friday. The eight are Oriol Junqueras (Deputy First Minister, economy), Jordi Turull (spokesman), Raul Romeva (foreign affairs), Josep Rull (territory), Meritxell Borrás (public administration), Carles Mundó (justice), Dolors Bassa (work & social affairs), Joaquin Form (interior).
Earlier, the prosecutor"s office requested the jailing of Catalonian Vice-President Oriol Junqueras and seven other officials charged with rebellion, sedition and embezzlement of public funds, while the probe is ongoing, La Vanguardia reported. The prosecutor also asked the judge to issue a European arrest warrant for former leader Carles Puigdemont while also requesting that counselor Santi Vila, who resigned from government before Catalonia declared independence, be released on bail of €50,000.
The request comes hours after ousted Catalonian President Carles Puigdemont failed to appear before Spanish judges. He’s currently in Brussels, seeking "freedom and safety." Puigdemont’s Belgian lawyer Paul Bekaert said that he would “cooperate with Spanish and Belgian justice.”
On Friday, October 27 the prosecutor filed a complaint against the Catalonian government for crimes it considers “very serious.” The alleged crimes relate to Catalonia’s independence referendum in which the majority of voters opted to secede from Spain.
Yesterday, a statement from the “Legitimate Catalan Government” confirmed that former Catalan leader, Carles Puigdemont, would not, as expected, appear in court in Madrid today.
The Spain Report points out that Catalan public television, TV3, published extracts from a statement from the "legitimate government of Catalonia" in Brussels on Wednesday evening that denounced the accusations presented against Carles Puigdemont and 13 other former regional ministers and the Speaker of the Catalan Parliament, Carme Forcadell, and five former members of her Speaker"s Committee. The statement said Mr. Puigdemont and a group of former regional ministers would be staying in Brussels to "denounce this political trial" abroad, implying they would not return to Madrid by 9 a.m. tomorrow morning, when they have been ordered to appear at the National High Court. The statement said the prosecutor"s accusations—for rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds—were a "political trial" and the potential sentences—rebellion carries a maximum term of 30 years in jail—"disproportionate". The statement says Puigdemont and the others are not staying in Brussels "to evade justice but rather to demand it". It suggests the group will attempt to answer the judge"s questions from Brussels "using the mechanisms already foreseen in the European Union for these circumstances".
This morning, Spain’s El Pais newspaper asked what happens next now that Puigdemont failed to appear in court. According to El Pais, Puigdemont, as well as former members of the Catalan Cabinet Meritxell Borràs, Antoni Comín, Clara Ponsatí and Meritxell Serret, failed to appear.
So what happens next?
Ongoing cases
1) In the High Court, Judge Carmen Lamela has accepted the formal accusation of rebellion filed by the Spanish public prosecutor’s office against Puigdemont and 13 members of his former cabinet. The crime carries a possible sentence of 30 years in prison.
2) The former president is also being investigated by the Catalan High Court (TSJC) for disobedience, misusing public funds and making deliberately unlawful decisions as elected officials (known in Spanish as prevaricación).
A European Arrest Warrant?
1) Now that Puigdemont has failed to appear in the High Court, Judge Lamela could draw up a writ ordering him to be taken into custody.
2) Once this writ has been produced, Spanish judges can issue a European Arrest Warrant (EAW) – the European Union equivalent of the old extradition orders. Prosecutors must make a request for this arrest warrant to be issued.
3) This EAW would be handed over by the judge to the Spanish National Police, who will use the SIRENE office – part of the EU’s Schengen Information System – to transmit the warrant to Belgian police.
4) This mechanism entails the arrest of the individual named in the warrant. A Belgian judge would then be tasked with looking at the handover of that person to Spain. The EAW protocol has been in place in Spain since 2003 and was updated in 2014, partly to include the requirement that the initial request for the warrant comes from prosecutors (previously judges were able to draw up an EAW without involving prosecutors in the process). It was also updated to include the principle of proportionality, meaning that an EAW can only be issued when Spain believes the conditions for pre-trial custody exist in the case of the person named in the warrant.
EAWs are carried out between judges of different EU members states, and, as a point of difference with extradition orders, the governments of the relevant countries are not involved.
5) EAWs are regulated in Spanish legislation under Law 23 of 2014 covering the mutual recognition of penal resolutions in the EU. This rule imposes on Spain the obligation to comply with other EU legislation including a 2002 agreement on making the handover of detainees easier.
6. The procedure is fairly straightforward, on paper at least. The judicial system in the country notified usually agrees to the handover of the person named in the warrant in around 60 days.
Possible obstacles
There are, however, a number of legal avenues that can extend these time frames, according to judicial sources consulted by this paper.
1) This handover could take longer if the judge ordering the EAW has not exhausted all other possible means of questioning the suspect, including via video conference. However, in the case of crimes as serious of rebellion – as is the case with former Catalan premier Puigdemont – this excuse would carry little weight, according to judicial sources.
2) Another hurdle thwarting a rapid handover could be the fact that rebellion is not on the list of 32 crimes that are exempt, under European law, from “double classification.” In other words the crime of rebellion is on the books in both countries. Under Belgian law, rebellion has a slightly different definition from that of Spanish law, according to sources consulted. And even in Spain, the crime is not very well-defined. This could lead to Belgian judges to make an argument that they need to look closely at the subject in question and examine whether, under Belgian law, Puigdemont and fellow members of his government currently in Belgium are actually liable to prosecution. If a judge agrees to the handover of the detainees, those detainees could then appeal.
3) Although the simplified EAW system is based on “an elevated level of confidence” between EU member states, and on the fact that judicial resolutions in one country will be recognized by others, people named in these warrants can claim – and everything suggests Puigdemont will do this – that they are afraid their fundamental rights won’t be respected in Spain. Article 1.3 of the European legislation of 2002 opened the door to this possibility and has allowed Belgium to stop the handover of various ETA prisoners to Spain in the past.
With the Spanish Government continuing to escalate the confrontation with the former Catalonian leadership, we suspect that an arrest warrant is heading Carles Puigdemont’s way. Meanwhile, he chose to drink coffee in a Brussels café instead of appearing in a Madrid courtroom.
Here is the photo of Puigdemont having coffee in Brussels this morning when he was meant to be in court in Madrid. Caught by @adelgadoRnepic.twitter.com/Njr3niwpAh
The Spanish government decided to reach back into its history and borrow from the playbook of longtime Spanish fascist dictator Francisco Franco in dealing with Catalonia’s decision to declare independence from the Spanish Kingdom as the Republic of Catalonia. The Catalan government’s decision to declare independence followed an October 1 referendum in the region that resulted in a “yes” for independence.
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, whose Popular Party is a direct political descendant of Franco’s fascist Falangist Party, wasted no time in invoking, for the first time, Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution, which allows the Spanish Kingdom to impose direct rule on regions not adhering to the whiplashing from Madrid. Catalonia is the first, but possible not the last victim, of Spain’s neo-fascism on display for the entire world.
During the Spanish Civil War, the Catalans and Basques fought with bravery on behalf of the Spanish Second Republic against the fascist forces of Franco and his fascists. Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini provided all-out support for Franco, much like the European Union, NATO, and the United States have fully backed Rajoy in his confrontation with Catalonia. Spain’s King Felipe VI October 3 speech, in which he condemned the Catalan referendum’s pro-independence results, was seen by many Catalans, as well as other groups like the Basques, Galicians, and Andalusians, as an unnecessary involvement in politics. Not only Catalans, but others across Spain, began calling for the scrapping of the Bourbon family’s monarchy and the establishment of the Spanish Third Republic. The Bourbons have little respect among the working peoples of Spain and France. After all, it was an ancestor of Felipe VI, Louis XVI of France, who lost his head to a French revolutionary guillotine after ignoring the poverty of the French people.
Spain’s reaction to Catalonia’s independence was swift and reminiscent of Hitler’s extinguishment of Austria’s independence in his infamous “Anschluss” (union) between Nazi Germany and Austria. Rajoy ordered the sacking of Catalan First Minister Carles Puigdemont; his entire Cabinet, chief of the Catalan Mossos d’Esquadra police Jose Luis Trapero, Catalan representatives in Madrid, Brussels, Strasbourg, London, Paris, Copenhagen, Rome, Berlin, Vatican City, Lisbon, Rabat, Warsaw, Vienna, Zagreb, and Geneva; and even Catalan schoolteachers. Catalan government ministers were replaced with lisp-talking Castillian apparatchiks sent to the Catalan capital of Barcelona to administer, by fiat, all Catalan government institutions. Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria took over Puigdemont’s job, while Spanish Interior Minister Juan Ignacio Zoido took over the Catalan police functions from Trapero. Police duties in Catalonia were largely transferred from the Mossos d’Esquadra to the feared “Guardia Civil,” the notorious political enforcers for Franco’s fascist regime that were created by Franco as a Spanish version of Nazi Germany’s Gestapo.
The Madrid regime announced that new Catalan elections would be held on December 21 of this year, however, it is far from clear whether Catalonia’s pro-independence parties will be permitted to field candidates. Madrid may proscribe all of Catalonia’s pro-independence parties and groups, including “Junts Pel Sí” ("Together For Yes") and the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), leaving only pro-Spanish parties like Rajoy’s neo-fascist Popular Party and the accommodationist Socialists, Ciudadanos, and George Soros-financed Podemos on the ballot. Moreover, Madrid has threatened to put on trial all of Catalonia’s independence leaders for sedition. Sedition convictions under Spanish law carry a maximum 15-year prison term.
Madrid also ordered shut down a Catalan government special commission that was investigating Spanish police brutality against Catalan citizens during pro-independence demonstrations following the October 1 referendum. Ominously, the Madrid authorities ordered sacked police chief Trapero to turn in his passport, a sign that Madrid is contemplating seizing the passports of all of Catalonia’s independence leaders to prevent them from operating a Republic of Catalonia government-in-exile. The precedent for such action was the anti-Franco Spanish Second Republic’s government-in-exile established in Paris in 1939 after Franco’s seizure of Spain. After Nazi Germany’s invasion of France in 1940, the government-in-exile moved to Mexico City, where it was recognized by Mexico, Panama, Guatemala, Venezuela, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Romania, and Albania until its dissolution in 1977 after Spain’s so-called “constitutional monarchy” was restored after Franco’s death. The seizure of passports from Catalan officials and the closure of Catalan foreign missions abroad by Madrid is clearly aimed at preventing a Catalan government-in-exile from being formed.
Today, Rajoy and his junta have the support of all the major corporate periodicals in Spain, El País, El Mundo, ABC, El Razón, and Barcelona’s quisling newspaper La Vanguardia. However, no newspaper endorsements or messages of support from Donald Trump, Angela Merkel, Theresa May, and Jean-Claude Juncker that will enable Rajoy’s thugs to keep Catalonia under his boot heel. Catalonia’s future will be determined by its own people and their friends abroad, many of whom have rallied to Catalonia’s cause.
No sooner had Catalonia declared its independence, messages of support began streaming into Barcelona.
Jean-Guy Talamoni, the president of the National Assembly of Corsica, a French island where independence sentiment is strong, praised the “birth of the Republic of Catalonia.” Carole Delga, the president of the French region of Occitania, where Catalan is spoken in the Pyrenees-Orientales department, recognized Occitania’s strong ties to Catalonia and called for urgent talks between Spanish and Catalan authorities to maintain the civil peace.
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who has promised a second Scottish independence referendum, voiced support for Catalonia. The leader of the Scottish National Party government in Edinburgh said, “The right to self-determination is an important international principle, and I hope very much it will be respected in Catalonia, and everywhere else." There is every reason to believe that Rajoy is seizing the Spanish European Union passports of Catalan leaders to prevent them from establishing a government-in-exile in either Edinburgh or Glasgow, two cities from which they could have at their service satellite communications links and direct air access to Europe’s major cities. There is a great degree of support among Scots for Catalan independence. The new Catalan Defense Committee Scotland is organizing opposition to Madrid’s aggression against Catalonia. It has stated, “The brutality and repression that has been visited upon the people of Catalonia cannot be allowed to continue, or to be legitimized.” The committee is not only confining its activities in Scotland and is vowing to spearhead a Europe-wide movement.
Catalonia’s cause is also supported by Jan Peumans, the speaker of the Flemish regional parliament. Citing the example of Scotland, Peumans said of Catalonia and his own region of Flanders, that independence of such regions is an “evolution that no European government can avoid.”
Regional leaders in Italy’s Lombardy and Veneto regions, which both voted in favor of more autonomy in recent referendums, rallied to Catalonia’s side and condemned Spain’s arrest and intimidation of Catalan leaders. Separatist leaders in the Faroe Islands, which voted in 1946 for independence from Denmark only to see the Danish government bow to pressure from Washington to keep the islands Danish, hope to repeat the 1946 vote in an April 2018 referendum for a new constitution for an independent Faroes. The declaration of the Republic of Catalonia has provided encouragement to not only the Faroese but those in Greenland who want to see a total break from Danish (and NATO) control.
Rajoy’s junta’s crackdown in Catalonia could also re-ignite the Basque region’s desire for independence. The Basque guerrilla group ETA declared a unilateral cease fire in 2010 but it never fully disarmed. If the Spanish suppression of Catalonia succeeds, the Basques may see themselves as next on Rajoy’s list. Unlike the Catalans, the Basques have shown Madrid that they are quite capable of bringing a war home to the very center of the Spanish state in Madrid. The Galicians may also see their autonomy at risk and a mobilization of the armed “Restistencia Galega” would force Madrid to face multiple fronts in not only Catalonia and the Basque region, but Galicia, as well.
Señor Rajoy and his proto-fascists would do well to listen to the Catalan protesters singing from the streets of Barcelona their traditional Catalan songs and one from the musical “Les Misérables” that should worry the puppet minister for the Bourbon king of Spain:“Do you hear the people sing? Singing a song of angry men? It is the music of a people Who will not be slaves again!.. Will you join in our crusade? Who will be strong and stand with me? Beyond the barricade. Is there a world you long to see? Then join in the fight. That will give you the right to be free!”
Update (0920ET): A Spanish government spokesman has responded to Puigdemont"s address, saying that "Spain will not comment on comments by Puigdemont who is out of a job."
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As we detailed earlier, in a pre-record message this morning, Catalan separtist leader Carles Puigdemont urged Catalans to peacefully oppose Spain"s formal takeover of the region"s affairs.
Puigdemont said the activation of article 155 of the Spanish Constitution was illegitimate and called on Catalans to show "patience, perseverance" and faith in the future, and urged "democratic opposition" against Spanish government orders to sack his administration and dismiss the regional parliament.
As The Spain Report notes, he announced he Catalans must "continue defending" their new republic "with a sense of civic responsibility," adding "our will is to continue working to guarantee our democratic mandate".
The use of Article 155 to suspend home rule in Catalonia was a "premeditated attack on the majority will of Catalans" and "contrary" to democracy.
Puigdemont also called on pro-independence Catalans to be respectful of fellow Catalans who are in favor of Catalonia remaining within Spain. Puigdemont didn’t mention central government orders to remove him.
Presumably, Puigdemont"s calls suggest a strategy designed to compare Madrid"s forcefulness to Catalan"s peaceful protest, perhaps in an effort to garner more international favor - as most of the "developed" nations issued statements overnight declining to reecognize Catalonia and fully backing the establishment"s Spanish government.
Live broadcasts showed Puigdemont in a bar in the town of Girona at the time of the televised speech.
LATEST: Puigdemont was actually out drinking wine and having lunch in Girona at time of his pre-recorded message on TV3, @laSextaTV reports. pic.twitter.com/E40z58S6Qi
Puigdemont declined to speak to reporters when he left the bar shortly after the speech.
Meanwhile, Spain begins implementation of Article 155:
Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria takes over the management of the Catalonia area after Madrid took its autonomous status yesterday and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy fired the regional government, the agencies said, reports sega.
Spain"s Interior Minister Juan Ignacio Zoido is leading the Catalonian police after the chief of police, Jose Luis Trapero, was removed. Both decisions enter into force immediately.
However, La Vanguardia reports, members of the Catalan government don’t plan to accept being removed, citing sources it doesn’t name, though oit is unclear exactly what they will do. The Catalan government is reportedly preparing next steps in line with proclamation approved yesterday by the regional Parliament. Among the possibilities being weighed is calling constituent elections before the end of the year.
1. Madrid ignores the implementation of the declaration of independence
In many ways, it seems counter-intuitive to list this as the ‘most peaceful short term option’, not least because there is ostensibly no bigger insult to a peoples than to simply ignore their declaration of independence. This is ironically, not necessarily the case with Catalonia.
The very reason that Catalan independence was not declared on the 2nd of October is because the Catalan leadership are very moderate in their approach to the issue. Forgetting whether one finds the Catalan leaders inspiring or incipient, the fact of the matter is that they did not so much say “give me liberty or give me death” as they said “give me European values and give me those values on my terms at the soonest possible date after a period of polite discussions”.
Because Catalonia has shown the propensity to wait for a good faith negotiation partner during a very trying month and because furthermore, many Catalan politicians have insisted that they seek peace and cooperation whenever possible, the onus therefore is now very much on Madrid to de-escalate the situation.
Madrid could still go through with the technical firing of the Catalan government in order to administer the humdrum business of daily life in Catalonia for an interim period on their terms, but if Madrid were to officially adopt a position of ignoring the formal independence vote, it could still negotiate with independence leaders in another capacity.
The west, including Spain, continually speaks of ‘moderate rebels’ in places throughout the world, notably Syria, in spite of the fact that they are acting violently, using terrorism as their de-facto means of ‘political expression’, are mostly foreign proxies and are violating not only national but international law. With the exception of Catalonia violating Spanish law, included the much hated 1978 Spanish constitution, which many see as overtly Francoist in nature, none of this applies to Catalonia.
No one can reasonably say that Catalan independence supporters or their leaders are terrorists or post a direct threat to world peace as al-Qaeda, the FSA, Kurdish ethno-nationalists and ISIS do in places like Syria or Iraq. Furthermore, unlike Middle Eastern Kurds who are something of Israel’s de-facto regional puppets, Catalan independence movements have been part of Iberian history going back centuries. The Catalan struggle, in other-words, predates the creation of the dastardly Israeli colonial state, the birth of George Soros, the idea of the New World Order and the advent of neo-liberal economics. To therefore say that Catalan independence is about any of these things, as many have, fails to realise the long historical basis which underlies recent events in Catalonia.
Because of this, Madrid has nothing to lose, yet much to gain from engaging in negotiations with the leaders of the independence movement. Had Madrid negotiated directly with the leaders in Barcelona, the entire independence movement may have fizzled-out over time, in the same way that Brexit appears to be doing in another EU state, or otherwise, Madrid could have agreed to a situation whereby Catalonia settles on an Andorra like solution whereby Catalonia becomes a state formally protected by Spain (as Andorra is technically protected by France), while technically enjoying the desired benefits of EU membership which logically derive from the ‘protector’ state. Because of Catalonia’s size vis-a-vis Andorra, some sort of financial agreement could be agreed upon on a per annum basis.
Such a solution would require creativity, but crucially it requires no blood and could be arranged to create face-saving and money saving measures that cover both sides in terms of economic, political and even ego driven requirements and desires. It is still not too late to achieve this as the “slowly-slowly” attitude in Barcelona has not dramatically changed, in spite of recent dramatic events. In this sense, yesterday’s vote was more of a sign that Barcelona is not bluffing, that it is a sign that Madrid is now an automatic enemy of the largely unrecognised new Catalan Republic.
2. Barcelona initiates a dialogue process….and it works
It must be re-stated that one of the reasons Catalonia implemented a declaration of independence yesterday was because it felt it had no option to do anything else. If Catalonia’s leaders did nothing while Madrid moved to abolish their autonomy, they would have looked weak before the eyes of their constituents and ineffective in the eyes of the world from which they will need to garner support, in one way or another.
Thus, we now know that Catalonia’s leaders have the collective strength to do what they said they would do. But can they now do something more difficult? Can they offer the wider world an option that cannot be refused?
Catalonia has gone out of its way to do that which, for example, the Kurds in the Middle East have not done. While Kurds have resorted to armed conflict and terrorism in their disregard for both national and international law, Catalans have practised entirely peaceful civil disobedience in arguable violation of national law, but in full compliance with EU law which is theoretically superior to national law in many cases, among member states.
The fact that Catalans are being totally disregarded by most EU states and the EU itself, is symptomatic of double-standards in the west, whereby an armed terrorist in Asia or Africa is a ‘freedom fighter’, but peaceful individuals initiating a controversial but totally non-violent political process in the west, are somehow bandits. Furthermore, Catalonia is a regional crisis and for the EU, an existential crisis. Such a reality is miles away from the very real security crisis that Turkey, Syria and Iran felt when Iraqi Kurds, machine guns in hand, voted in a secession referendum which went beyond their legally defined autonomous borders within Iraq. Again, none of this applies to Catalonia.
If followed to its logical conclusion, Catalonia can now call on international mediators to instigate a process for dialogue that Madrid simply could not ignore. If such a process fails, it will represent a total failure of the so-called international community. If not a single nation, not the UN, not a former UN Secretary General, not a single peace activist can step forward and heed Catalonia’s calls for a truly international dialogue process to be organised, then there truly is no international community to speak of. It certainly behoves Catalonia to attempt and find out.
3. Duelling governments in Barcelona
Madrid is set to appoint a new interim leadership in Barcelona who will answer directly to the Spanish government, while calling for new elections to form a Catalan parliament in December. The effectiveness of such a move depends on the de-facto current leaders in Barcelona (Puigdemont et al.) and their supporters simply going away quietly.
If anyone thinks it is likely that after a long standoff which was capped by the declaration of a Catalan Republic will end the moment Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy sends ‘his man’ to Barcelona, then they are not living in the real world.
With two competing governments in Barcelona, the short term confusion and deadlock could lead to disaster, as shall be explored in the following two, very un-peaceful possibilities.
4. Mass arrests of Catalan independence leaders
Spain has already set a worrying precedent by arresting Catalan independence organisers on sedition charges. There are now open fears that such a precedent could now lead to the arrest of the entire de-facto leadership in Barcelona, as well as many members of the Catalan parliament (even though the vote for independence was conducted via secret ballot).
This would not only set-off an uncontrollable chain reaction of fear and almost certainly violence in Catalonia and beyond, but would set off a chain of lawsuits which would test the primacy of national law versus EU and international law. If Madrid were to invoke the most neo-Francoist elements of its constitution and subsequently conduct mass arrests reminiscent of the 1930s, it would not only embolden more Catalans than ever in their desire to breakaway from Spain permanently, but it will be guaranteed to keep both the European Court of Human Rights and the European Court of Justice busy for years if not decades to come.
The legal issues which currently exist, could and should be solved through mediation followed by an accord. However, if mass arrests of prominent Catalan leaders are conducted by Spain, a larger legal Pandora’s Box would be flung open and more importantly, any claim of a peaceful regional dispute would be forever lost. Instead, it would be a repeat of the 1930s in more ways than one, combined with the legal labyrinth of 21st century judicial mechanisms.
5. Civil War
Depending of various push-pull factors at play, a repeat, however microcosmic, of the 1930s Spanish Civil War could take place. If Madrid cracks down hard on political leaders, demonstrators and other civil bodies in Catalonia, it is possible that Catalans could find the means to arm themselves and fight back.
If an armed struggle took place in the heart of the EU, not only would it quite possibly be the end of Spain and western Europe as we know it, but it could be the end of the EU…full stop.
Whatever would be leftover, would by definition be unrecognisable and only a great deal of effort to put the region back together could restore peace.
For mercenary thinkers who see questions of war and peace simply in economic terms, it is worth saying this: for the moment, the Catalan crisis has not drastically impacted global markets. If things escalate into an armed civil conflict, it will impact markets, but primarily in Europe with some ricochets in North America. The rest of the world will remain financially stable.
This will be the ultimate sign that an Iberian peninsula which once ruled large quarters of the world, is now reduced to a corner of a European Union that far from leading the world, can now, barely lead itself.
In many ways, this will be the ultimate wake-up call.
Update 4: In a live TV address to the nation, Spain"s PM Rajoy just announced that it is a "sad day" in which Catalans showed "contempt" for democracy, and ignored the general interest; that the Catalan declaration is unacceptable to majority of Catalans, and that, as a result and as expected, he is firing Catalan president Carles Puigdment, the Catalan police chief, and the entire Catalan government as "prudence" and "serenity" are now needed: "we never wanted to reach this situation".
Ministries in the central government will assume powers of the Catalan administration.
The Prime Minister also announced he has dissolved the Catalan Parliament and called for snap elections to be held on December 21 which will be "free, legal and clean".
As The Spain Report adds, the central government also ordered all of Catalonia"s "embassies" abroad closed, along with the region"s publicly funded Diplocat diplomacy service, and sacked the director general of the Catalan Police (Mossos), Pere Soler.
Rajoy also said Spain has enough resources to "recover normality" in Catalonia within the law and thanked the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) and Ciudadanos for their support.
* * *
Update 3: Spain’s top prosecutor will seek rebellion charges for those responsible for a vote in favor of declaring an independent Catalan republic, an official Spanish spokesman said according to The Independent. The spokesman said the prosecutor is looking to determine if the charges should be limited to the Catalan cabinet, including President Carles Puigdemont and Vice President Oriol Junqueras, or if they should also include members of the parliament’s governing board and lawmakers.
The official, who spoke under condition of anonymity in line with internal rules, said the charges could be brought as early as Monday. As Mr. Maza warned,"The rebellion crime is punishable by 30 years in prison if it is a crime of considerable gravity, of course...if the Catalan police did not comply with the order, Spain would take over control of the force."
As a reminder, and as The Spain Report tweeted what happened the last time the Catalan republic was declared, in 1934:, there was i) State of war; ii) Lasted 10 hours and iii) led to 46 dead in Barcelona.
Puigdemont has called on fellow separatists to remain peaceful ahead of the expected crackdown by Spanish authorities. Facing a crowd of hundreds of supporters packing Catalonia’s parliament building, he said: “In the days ahead we must keep to our values of pacificism and dignity. It’s in our, in your hands to build the republic.” Good luck.
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Update 2: Article 155 is now official, after Spain"s Constitutional Court lists the series of measures allowing central government to force Catalonia regional administration to obey national law. The two-page document was published Friday in Spain"s Official Gazette, in step necessary to becoming law. The measures approved by the Senate follow government proposal, under Article 155 of Constitution. By way of explanation, the actions were taken due to “extraordinary seriousness of the breach of constitutional obligations and the carrying out actions gravely against the general interest” by Catalonia institutions.
As Article 155 was codified by publication in the Spanish Official Gazette, at the top of the list published by the Constitutional Court was the potential removal from office of the region’s president, vice-president and cabinet. The list was published along with a two-page addendum of modifications by the Senate. The Catalan administration will continue to function, though the central government in Madrid can veto its decisions. Additionally, the region’s police, the 17,000-member Mossos d’Esquadra, must take direct orders from Madrid, which can supplement their role with national police, which already are under control of the central government. The measures took immediate effect on publication.
* * *
Update: Just minutes after the Catalan government voted for Independence from Spain, with a former Decision of Independence likely to follow momentarily, over in Madrid wasted no time in responding, and moments ago, with 214 for and 47 against, voted to approve Article 155 of Spain"s 1978 Constitution, aka the Nuclear Option which has never been used before, suspending home rule in Catalonia, and giving Prime Minister Rajoy the power to oust the Catalan government.
What happens next?
Spain will promptly move to remove the Catalan president, suspend his ministers and assume authority over the region"s public media, police and finances, the only question is how, and what this process will look like.
Indeed, as Bloomberg reported earlier, Spanish politician Garcia Albiol tweeted that Spanish Prime-Minister Mariano Rajoy will restore democracy in Catalonia, adding that courts will reprimand the “plotters.” Furthermore, Spain"s El Pais reported that rebellion charges will likely be leveled soon at Catalans for Secession.
An angry Rajoy spoke to reporters in Madrid after the Catalan parliament declared independence and said that "the Catalan parliament has approved something that in the opinion of the great majority of people doesn’t just go against the law but is a criminal act because it supposes declaring something that is not possible which is the independence of Catalonia.”
He also said that he will address Spain at the end of the evening.
In terms of immediate next steps, there will be a Spanish Cabinet Meeting, which has been moved ahead to 5pm local time.
After that, things may get delicate, especially if Spain sends in the proverbial cavalry.
Incidentally, here is the historic moment Catalonia declared independence from Spain:
* * * It"s Official! The Catalan Parliament has just voted for independence - 70 "Yes" (needed 68), 10 "No", 2 blank.
As AP reports, Catalan separatist lawmakers pass motion to establish a new republic independent of Spain, as the opposition boycotts the vote...
“We constitute the Catalan Republic, as an independent and sovereign country, under the rule of law,” said the preamble to the resolution, read out by speaker Carme Forcadell before the ballot.
Catalan vice-president Oriol Junqueras tweeted...
Sí. Hem guanyat la llibertat per construir un nou país.
What happens next is anyone"s guess, but we suspect it will involve heavy police state intervention and the Franco-ian regime that separatists fear will rear its ugly head.
The Washington Post reports:
“The next move could be a formal declaration of statehood, less than a month after a referendum that backed the push for independence […]
If the Senate invokes the never-before-used Article 155 of Spain"s 1978 constitution, the central government could move swiftly to remove the Catalan president, suspend his ministers and assume authority over the region"s public media, police and finances.”
The Spanish government will undoubtedly now move swiftly to implement Article 155.
Spanish PM Rajoy immediately tweeted "I call tranquility to all Spaniards. The rule of law will restore the legality in Catalonia. MR"...
Pido tranquilidad a todos los españoles. El Estado de Derecho restaurará la legalidad en Cataluña. MR
And Spanish stocks dumped - erasing all oif yesterday"s hype-fueled hope-buying...
* * *
Live Feed: Catalan Speaker reads the independence declaration before the vote...
“We constitute the Catalan Republic, as an independent and sovereign country, under the rule of law,” said the proposed resolution, read out by the speaker before the vote.
* * *
Update (0900ET): The Catalan Parliament confirms the secession proposal will be voted in a secret ballot. This immediately led to the PP MPs leaving the parliament chamber.
* * *
Update (0850ET): Catalan"s opposition party members have just abandoned parliamnet as voting begins on minor resolutions (ahead of the big "independence" decision) but Rajoy"s PP remains in session. Additionally, the separatists have called for the ballot to be private.
* * *
Update (0820ET): CUP Deputy Carles Riera rages that the time has come to "build the republic in a context of fight and resistance."
“We propose that Catalonia becomes an independent state in the form of republic."
“Today we start the removal of the 1978 regime."
As Spain"s prime minister urged the Senate on Friday to grant his government special constitutional measures that would allow it to take control of Catalonia"s autonomous powers and halt the region"s independence bid.
* * *
As we detailed earlier, after yesterday"s chaotic Spanish event rollercoaster, when the Catalan leader Carles Puidgement was going to press ahead with independence only to change his mind, and propose elections, before reversing again and punting the independence decision to parliament, we hoped to get some further clarity on how he’s planning to proceed. Today, the chaos continues.
First, Bloomberg reported that Catalonia would seek approval for elections from Madrid:
The rebel government of Catalonia is making a last ditch effort to win concessions from Madrid. According to a person familiar with the matter, Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont, wants to convince supporters to accept regional elections instead of a declaration of independence. A senior Catalan official will ask the Spanish government to suspend the process of seizing direct control of the region if there is a snap election.
However, shortly afterwards, The Spain Report carried breaking news that the secessionists would debate a motion to declare independence in today’s session of the Catalonian Parliament.
MAJOR BREAKING: Separatist Parties Register Motion To Declare Independence Of Catalonia In Regional Parliament https://t.co/oa4fhhwXgc
Catalan separatist parties—Junts Pel Sí ("Together For Yes") and the CUP (Popular Unity Candidacy)—have registered a motion to declare the independence of Catalonia in the regional parliament.
A copy of the document published by Spanish media included the phrase: "We constitute the Catalan Republic as an independent sovereign democratic, social state of law".
The text would also approve the activation of the secession bill approved by the regional chamber at the beginning of September and voided by the Constitutional Court and "begin the constituent process".
* * *
The Speaker"s Committee is currently deciding on which motions to accept for the second part of the session in the Catalan Parliament on Article 155, which is due to begin at 12 p.m.
At the same time, there are unconfirmed reports that police are closing off roads around the regional parliament. Meanwhile, the Spanish senate has been debating the implementation of Article 155 in Madrid. Rajoy told lawmakers that Spain faced an exceptional situation and asked them to support his proposal on Article 155. The Spain Report shows video of Rajoy receiving a standing ovation.
Backed into a corner by his own hardliners and Rajoy’s refusal to give him a dignified way out, Catalan President Carles Puigdemont will address the regional parliament in Barcelona as demonstrators clamor for a declaration of independence. After a day of high drama that saw Puigdemont caught between the might of the Spanish state and the anger of the street, western Europe’s worst constitutional crisis for decades may be coming to a head with the separatist leader running out of options…
The day of confusion saw the president make a televised address after two postponements, lawmakers quit his party and a senior Catalan official jump ship, all while Spanish ministers were repeating their mantra that the Catalans must be brought to heel. The Spanish stock market posted its biggest gain since Oct. 5 only to pare the advance as events unfolded. Puigdemont said he had considered calling the regional vote, but he didn’t get the concessions he sought from officials in Madrid. "I tried to get the guarantees to carry out these elections, but didn’t get a responsible answer,” he said.
Last night, reports from the secessionist camp implied that independence would be declared.
"We are winning," Lluis Corominas, the head of Puigdemont’s PDeCat group, told lawmakers on Thursday night. "We should materialize the effects of the Oct. 1 referendum and implement them." That’s code for declaring independence.
Maybe they are correct, but until then this remains a dangerously fluid and volatile situation.
In the latest plot reversal in what become a nail-biting Spanish drama, in which the narrative changes by the hour, moments ago Catalonia president Puigdemont made a televised statement refuted earlier reports he had capitulated to Spanish demands, and said he rejects calls for snap elections. Saying there are "not sufficient guarantees" for elections to take place, Puigdemont said he needs to exhaust all options for solution, and said that he was ready to call election.
"My duty was to try", he said in a statement to reporters shortly after 5 p.m. on Thursday quoted by The Spain Report. "My responsibility was to explore all of the options in my hand to the very end."
"No one will be able to say that I have not been ready to make sacrifices to guarantee dialogue."
"It is now the Catalan Parliament that will have to decide on the response to the application of Article 155", he added, in reference to the article of the Spanish Constitution that the central government will use—for the first time in the modern democratic period—to suspend home rule in a Spanish region.
Outside Catalan government headquarters in Barcelona, separatist supporters filled the square with chants of "independence" after Mr. Pugidemont made his announcement.
A session of the Catalan Parliament it due to begin at 6 p.m.
Puigdemont"s latest decision - which may yet be reversed in this ongoing political whirlwind - is sure to infuriate Madrid, which earlier in the day said it was happy with the Catalan decision to call elections. It would also mean that Spain will shortly announce it is seizing control from the Catalan government, and could potentially arrest Puigdemont in prison, even though the local leaders has not formally declared independence.
Meanwhile, in Madrid, a session of the Spanish Senate commission responsible for the Article 155 process has begun. The Deputy Prime Minister, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, has formally asked the commission to approve the measures the government has asked for.
A worst case scenario would be for Madrid to announce the confrontation between Madrid and Barcelona is escalatig further, with Spain clamping down on the region"s autonomy, and leading to a far more chaotic outcome.
Some of you may be confused as to why a U.S. citizen living in Colorado has become so completely obsessed with what’s going on in Spain. Bear with me, there’s a method to my madness.
I believe what’s currently happening in Spain represents a crucial microcosm for what we’ll see sweep across the entire planet over the next ten years.
Some of you will want to have a discussion about who’s right and who’s wrong in this particular affair, but that’s besides the point. It doesn’t matter which side you favor, what matters is that Madrid/Catalonia is an example of the forces of centralization duking it out with forces of decentralization.
Madrid represents the nation-state as we know it, with its leaders claiming Spain is forever indivisible according to the constitution. Madrid has essentially proclaimed there’s no possible avenue to independence from a centralized Spain even if various regions decide in large number they wish to be independent. This sort of attitude will be seen as unacceptable and primitive by increasingly large numbers of humans in the years ahead. Catalonia should be seen as a canary in the coal mine. The forces of decentralization are rising, but entrenched centralized institutions and the bureaucrats running them will become increasingly terrified, panicked and oppressive.
As I’ve discussed, this isn’t coming out of nowhere. Humanity’s current established centralized institutions and nation-states have become clownishly corrupt, merely existing to protect and enrich the powerful/connected as opposed to benefiting the population at large. As such, legitimacy has been shattered and people have begun to demand a new way. Whether we see this with the rising popularity of Bitcoin, or the UK decision to leave the EU, evidence is everywhere and we’ve already passed the point of no return. This is precisely why EU leaders are rallying around Madrid. They’re scared to death and fear they might be next. They’re probably right.
Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll see sufficient change in this regard without hardship. This hardship is likely to occur as the old paradigm becomes more authoritarian and paranoid as it lashes out in an attempt to solidify and expand control. Of course, we’re already seeing this all around us, but it’s likely to get even worse in the years ahead. Don’t be afraid of it, understand that it’s coming and accept that this is all part of the change process. Did you really think control-freak authoritarians would give up without a fight?
If you want to see how a control-freak authoritarian responds to a situation, just look at how Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy has responded to Catalonia. People like him simply can’t help themselves, it’s in their nature and all they know is the fist of violence. As I noted in last week’s post on the topic, those in favor of Catalan independence have thus far played the situation flawlessly. For this to turn out positively for the forces of decentralization, the Spanish authorities must be encouraged to act increasingly thuggish, which will in turn bolster more and more popular support for independence. This has already started to happen, and will likely accelerate in the weeks ahead as Rajoy is about to make the biggest mistake of all by activating Article 155.
It’s really important to understand how irresponsibly aggressive Madrid is about to become before moving on. Here’s some background courtesy of Bloomberg:
Rajoy on Saturday shocked many observers with plans to clear out the entire separatist administration in Barcelona and take control of key institutions including public media and the regional police force, the Mossos d’Esquadra. Spain’s chief prosecutor said that if Puigdemont declares independence he would face as much as 30 years in jail and signaled that he could be arrested immediately.
“Catalan government officials and many within the Mossos and Catalan media are not just going to stand down without a fight,” said Caroline Gray, a lecturer in politics and Spanish at Aston University in the U.K. who specializes in nationalist movements. “The big question for me, really, is how Madrid is actually going to implement its proposed actions in Catalonia.”
Rajoy is wielding the untested powers of Article 155 of Spain’s 1978 Constitution to try to impose central government control on Catalonia. The aim ultimately is to trigger regional elections within six months.
Madrid is making a mistake of enormous historical significance here. First, you don’t need to be a genius to see that him forcibly taking over control over key aspects of Catalan civil society will only make the independence movement grow in strength, passion and numbers. Second, does Rajoy really think he’s going to be able to make this happen without enormous amounts of civil unrest? Not a chance.
Here’s some of what’s already being planned, according to Bloomberg:
Catalan separatists are mobilizing a human shield to block efforts by the Spanish authorities to take control of the breakaway region as both sides prepare to escalate the political conflict.
Groups will concentrate their activists around the regional government’s headquarters in Barcelona’s Gothic quarter and the nearby parliament building, according to two people familiar with the plans, asking not to be identified by name. They expect Spanish police to use force to try to shut down the administration and will put their bodies on the line, said one person.
“We are calling for a peaceful and democratic defense of the institutions,” Lluis Corominas, the leader of the main separatist group in the Catalan Parliament, said at a press conference in Barcelona. Regional President Carles Puigdemont has called for similar action.
The separatists have shown they can rally support. A crowd estimated by local police at around 450,000 joined him to protest in central Barcelona after Rajoy announced his plans. CUP, a pro-secessionist party, on Monday called for mass civil disobedience in Catalonia, Ara newspaper reported.
The key dates this week will be on Thursday and Friday. Thursday’s when the Catalan assembly is set to meet to prepare a response to Spain taking over the region by force. Friday is when Spain’s national Senate will vote to implement direct rule. In my opinion, it would be a big mistake for the Catalan government to declare independence at this stage. Madrid needs to continue to be seen as the unreasonable aggressor, which is what will happen if article 155 is activated Friday. For Catalonia to succeed, the public must become even more outraged than it already is. Any attempt by Madrid at taking over Catalan civil society by force will achieve this in spades.
If I’m correct in my forecast, the entire world will be looking at similar forces of decentralization battling it out with discredited, entrenched centralized power structures over the next decade or so. I think this will result in virtually all of our current institutions collapsing and being replaced by a completely different paradigm. In my view, the new paradigm will be increasingly defined by decentralized structures. Terms like “peer-to-peer,” “distributed” and “direct democracy” will become increasingly ubiquitous as we begin to lay down the foundations for a far less top-down, centralized and authoritarian approach to human affairs.
This isn’t to say the process will be easy or smooth, but that’s where I think all of this is headed. The struggle between Madrid and Catalonia represents a high-profile and early example of this struggle and those of us who wish for a more decentralized world need to pay very close attention since many lessons can be learned from this historic crisis.
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Following Catalan President Puigdemont"s address yesterday accusing Madrid of "the worst attack since Franco," the Spanish government has urged Catalonians to accept direct control from Madrid and ignore seditious instructions from the pro-independence leaders.
Spanish Foreign Minister Alfonso Dastis responded on Sunday with the call to obey Madrid.
“We are going to establish the authorities who are going to rule the day-to-day affairs of Catalonia according to the Catalan laws and norms ... I hope everyone will disregard whatever instructions they will be planning to give because they will not have the legal authority to do that.”
However, Dastis sought to calm nerves in the region, saying Madrid would not conduct arrests among the pro-independence leadership, though two prominent secessionists were detained on court order this month on allegations of sedition.
“All the government is trying to do, and reluctantly, is to reinstate the legal order, to restore the constitution but also the Catalan rules and proceed from there,” Dastis told BBC TV.
"We are not going to arrest anyone."
Of course, Dastis could not help himself but fall back on the establishment"s "excuse du jour" for anything that does not fit with the maintenance of the status quo... "There has been a lot of alternative facts and fake news"
So just how will Madrid take control of Catalonia?
Below are details of the powers the Spanish government plans to assume for a maximum six months before regional elections are held as set out in a proposal to the upper house Senate. As Reuters reports, the measures were formulated under a constitutional provision never before invoked in Spain’s 40 years of democracy.
DIRECT RULE
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is asking for authorization to sack the regional government including president Carles Puigdemont and his deputy Oriol Junqueras, high-profile figures in the independence drive who organized a popular vote on secession on Oct. 1 in defiance of Madrid.
Central government ministries will take over the regional administration until calling fresh elections within six months of direct rule coming into force.
On Saturday, Rajoy said he wanted to convene a vote “as soon as we get back to institutional normality”.
The Catalan parliament will retain a representative role, but the government will operate under the supervision of bodies chosen or created for the purpose by Madrid.
POLICE
The new administrators will take control of the Mossos d‘Esquadra regional police force, which has become embroiled in the controversy over the independence bid after allegedly failing to act to stop the referendum or protect national police who were drafted in to provide extra security.
The Mossos, whose chief is under investigation on suspicion of sedition, will have to act on direct orders from their new bosses. If deemed necessary, Mossos officers may be replaced by national police.
FINANCES
The Economy Ministry has already increased its control over regional finances, to block the use of state funds to organize the secession bid, and started paying directly for essential services. Under the new proposal, Madrid keeps financial control.
PUBLIC MEDIA
Widely-watched Catalan public television TV3 will come under central control. Madrid’s proposal to the Senate says this will ensure the information transmitted is “true, objective and balanced, in line with political, social and cultural pluralism, and territorial balance”.
FORMAL APPROVAL
The Senate, where Rajoy’s People’s Party has a majority, will vote on the proposal on Oct. 27. The opposition Socialist and Ciudadanos parties are backing Rajoy.
After the measures are approved, they can be activated immediately or put on hold to be implemented in the future. Puigdemont could call an election himself before the government’s plan comes into action, in which case direct rule would likely not be implemented.
Which would leave Catalan governed by ministers of a party that got just 8.5% of the vote at the last election...
Catalonia"s separatists were weighing their options Sunday, according to AFP, after Spain took drastic steps to stop the region from breaking away by dissolving its separatist government and forcing new elections.
Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont and his regional executive -- who sparked Spain"s worst political crisis in decades by holding a banned independence referendum on October 1 -- will be stripped of their jobs and their ministries taken over under measures announced Saturday by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.
"Yesterday there was a fully-fledged coup against Catalan institutions," said Catalan government spokesman Jordi Turull.
"What happens now, with everyone in agreement and unity, is that we will announce what we will do and how," he told Catalunya Radio.
Ahead of a meeting of Catalan parties Monday to organise a crucial session of the regional parliament to debate next steps, Turull insisted on RAC1 radio that elections were "not on the table".
Political analysts warn that Madrid faces a serious struggle in practical terms to impose control over the region.
Potential scenarios include Catalan police and civil servants refusing to obey orders from central authorities.
"What is going to happen if they don"t abide by it?" said Xavier Arbos Marin, a constitutional law professor at the University of Barcelona, raising the prospect of the government trying to "take them out by force".
He said there is fierce debate among experts over whether the government"s actions are even legal.
Independence supporters may also seek to scupper the plans through civil disobedience, such as surrounding regional ministries to thwart officials sent by Madrid.
"If police try to enter one of the Catalan institutions, there will be peaceful resistance," said Ruben Wagensberg, spokesman for new activist group En Pie de Paz.
For now, the game of chicken continues with each side waiting for the other to act first but rest assured, says Spanish Foreign Mnister Dastis, if Catalonians just quietly accept the tyrannical rule of Madrid then...
“everything will be fine, there will be law and order, peaceful life and normal coexistence which is what we’re after.”
