"Czech Donald Trump" Wins Landslide Victory

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

• The election outcome, the result of popular discontent with established parties, is the latest in a recent wave of successes for European populists, including in Austria and Germany. The populist ascendancy highlights a shifting political landscape in Europe where runaway multiculturalism and political correctness, combined with a massive influx of unassimilable migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East, have given rise to a surge in support for anti-establishment protest parties.


• "It is unthinkable that the indigenous European population should adapt themselves to the refugees. We must do away with such nonsensical political correctness. The refugees should behave like guests, that is, they should be polite, and they certainly do not have the right to choose what they want to eat.... There is a deep chasm between what people think and what the media tell them." — Andrej Babis, in the Czech daily Pravo, January 16, 2016.


• As prime minister, Babis would share government with Czech President Milos Zeman, who has described political correctness as "a euphemism for political cowardice."

Populist tycoon Andrej Babis and his Eurosceptic political party have won the Czech Republic"s parliamentary election - by a landslide - making the "politically incorrect" billionaire businessman the main contender to become prime minister after coalition negotiations.

With all of the votes counted, Babis"s anti-establishment party ANO (which stands for "Action of Dissatisfied Citizens" and is also the Czech word for "yes") won nearly 30% — almost three times its closest rival — in elections held on October 20. The Eurosceptic Civic Democratic Party (ODS), the anti-establishment Czech Pirates Party and the anti-EU Freedom and Direct Democracy party (SPD) came second, third and fourth, with around 11% each.

The Communists came in fifth with 7.8%. The Social Democrats, the center-left establishment party that finished first in the previous election, came in sixth with just 7.2%. The Christian Democrats, the center-right establishment party, won 5.8%, just enough to qualify for seats in parliament. In all, nine parties competed in the election.

The election outcome, the result of popular discontent with established parties, is the latest in a recent wave of successes for European populists, including in Austria and Germany. The populist ascendancy highlights a shifting political landscape in Europe where runaway multiculturalism and political correctness, combined with a massive influx of unassimilable migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East, have given rise to a surge in support for anti-establishment protest parties.

Babis"s victory will also strengthen the role of the Visegrad Group (V4), a political alliance of four Central European states — the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia — committed not only to resisting mass migration, but also to opposing the continued transference of national sovereignty to the European Union. A stronger V4 will accentuate the divisions between the pro-EU states of Western Europe and the increasingly Eurosceptic states of Central and Eastern Europe. The European Union consequently will struggle to maintain an outward semblance of unity.

In his victory speech at the ANO party headquarters, Babis, who campaigned as a centrist, refused to speculate on the composition of a coalition government, but said he wanted the cabinet to be set up as quickly as possible: "This is a huge opportunity to change our country. I would like to assemble a government that will be of the people and for the people and promotes policies that are in their favor."

Babis also tried to reassure the public that he would not put the Czech Republic on the path to authoritarianism, as some of his detractors have charged:

"We are a democratic movement. We are a solid part of the European Union and we are a solid part of NATO. I do not understand why some people say we are a threat to democracy. We certainly are not a threat to democracy. I am ready to fight for our national interests and to promote them."

Babis has been sharply critical of German Chancellor Angela Merkel"s open-door migration policy and has repeatedly denounced EU-imposed migrant quotas and other "EU meddling" in Czech politics. Those positions resonate in the Czech Republic, where citizens have the second-lowest trust in the European Union of all 28 member states (only Greeks have less trust in the EU), according to the latest Eurobarometer poll, published in August.

During the campaign, the 63-year-old Babis, one of the country"s wealthiest people, presented himself as a non-ideological results-oriented reformer. He pledged to run the Czech Republic like a business after years of what he called corrupt and inept management. He demanded a return of sovereignty from the European Union and rejected Czech adoption of the euro single currency. He has also promised to cut government spending, stop people from "being parasites" in the social welfare system, and fight for Czech interests abroad. Babis is often referred to as "the Czech Donald Trump."

Populist tycoon Andrej Babis (pictured) and his Eurosceptic political party have won the Czech Republic"s parliamentary election, making Babis the main contender to become prime minister after coalition negotiations. (Image source: Ji?í Vítek/Wikimedia Commons)

Babis does not want the Czech Republic to leave the EU; he has repeatedly stressed that unimpeded access to the European single market is essential to maintaining the health of the Czech economy, which has the lowest unemployment rate in the EU: "We have six thousand German companies here, investing with us and employing people."

At the same time, Babis is opposed to the country adopting the euro because doing so would, he believes, constrain national sovereignty and competitiveness:

"No euro. I don"t want the euro. We don"t want the euro here. Everybody knows it"s bankrupt. It"s about our sovereignty. I want the Czech koruna, and an independent central bank. I don"t want another issue that Brussels would be meddling with."

Babis has pledged to reform the European Union from within, especially regarding migration policy: "I want to play a more important role in Europe. But we have to fight for our interests and make proposals. If I were a prime minister, I would say: "Close this cursed external European border at last.""

Babis has expressed his opposition to mass migration: "I have stopped believing in successful integration and multiculturalism." He has also insisted that the Czech Republic alone should decide who will work in the country and who will receive humanitarian aid: "I do not want to have a French or German migration policy; we want our migration policy to be completely different from other countries. Every state has some interests, we have to fight for Czech national interests, we do not want to have that multicultural model."

Babis has rejected pressure from the European Commission, which has launched infringement procedures against the Czechs, Hungarians and Poles for refusing to comply with an EU plan to redistribute migrants:

"I will not accept refugee quotas for the Czech Republic. The situation has changed. We see how migrants react in Europe. We must react to the needs and fears of the citizens of our country. We must guarantee the security of Czech citizens. Even if we are punished by sanctions."

In June 2017, Babis reiterated that the Czech Republic would not be taking orders from unelected bureaucrats in Brussels:

"We have to fight for what our ancestors built here. If there will be more Muslims than Belgians in Brussels, that"s their problem. I don"t want that here. They won"t be telling us who should live here."

In an interview with the Czech daily Pravo, Babis said:

"It is unthinkable that the indigenous European population should adapt themselves to the refugees. We must do away with such nonsensical political correctness. The refugees should behave like guests, that is, they should be polite, and they certainly do not have the right to choose what they want to eat. Europe and Germany in particular are undergoing an identity crisis. There is a deep chasm between what people think and what the media tell them."

As prime minister, Babis would share government with Czech President Milos Zeman, who has described political correctness as "a euphemism for political cowardice." In an interview with the Guardian, the 71-year-old Zeman recounted a recent conversation with Angela Merkel: "My first sentence in the meeting with Madam Chancellor was: "If you invite somebody to your homeland, you do not send them to have lunch at your neighbors.""

In an interview with Czech Radio, Zeman, who has called mass migration to Europe an "organized invasion," said: "The Muslim Brotherhood cannot start a war against Europe, it doesn"t have the power, but it can prepare a growing migrant wave and gradually control Europe."

Like Babis, Zeman has also expressed skepticism about Muslim integration: "The experience of Western European countries which have ghettos and excluded localities shows that the integration of the Muslim community is practically impossible."

Germany's "Open Doors" Are Closing: Merkel Seeks New Limits On Refugees

After German Chancellor Angela Merkel admitted late last year that she had “lost control” of Germany’s refugee crisis after adopting an “open door” policy that fueled an unprecedented spike in crime, her weakened ruling coalition announced Monday that it would seek to impose new restrictions on the number of refugees admitted to the country.

Germany famously admitted nearly one million refugees from Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and other war zones in 2015, a five-fold increase over the previous year.

Migrants repaid Germany for its openness by committing 142,500 crimes during the first six months of 2016, including several high-profile sexual assaults.  

And now it seems Merkel has hit a wall and folded...

Merkel announced the policy change on Monday during a joint news conference with Horst Seehofer, leader of the Bavarian Christian Social Union - the more conservative partner to Merkel"s Christian Democratic Union – following discussions in which the two parties sought compromises on a number of issues following poor results in the federal elections two weeks ago, according to CNN.

"We will continue our efforts to reduce, sustainably and permanently, the number of people who flee to Germany and Europe, so that a situation like that of 2015 will not and cannot be repeated," reads a joint CSU/CDU position paper published Monday. "We guarantee that."

Last month, the Trump administration took steps to cap the number of refugees admitted into the US at 45,000 annually – a dramatic reduction. However, Merkel’s conservative allies pledged that nobody would be turned back at the German border, according to WSJ, while adding that the German Parliament could suspend the cap in the event of an international crisis.

The bloc agreed to limit to 200,000 annually the number of people allowed to enter Germany for humanitarian reasons. The conservatives pledged at the same time that people wouldn’t be turned back at the German border, expressing their support for the right to seek asylum in Germany and for the Geneva refugee convention, which states that countries should give protection to those who flee war and expulsion, and those who are politically persecuted.

“We continue with our efforts to permanently reduce the number of people fleeing to Germany and Europe in order to prevent a repeat of the situation such as in 2015” when Germany took in 890,000 asylum seekers, Ms. Merkel said Monday, presenting the agreement to reporters.

She said the parties agreed on measures that will ensure that the total number of admissions won’t exceed 200,000 people a year. These include dealing with newcomers seeking asylum in Germany in centralized centers where their claims will be quickly decided. Rejected asylum seekers will then be rapidly deported back to their home countries. With this move, the parties hope to speed up asylum proceedings and increase the number of deportations.

The limit of allowing up to 200,000 migrants entering the country every year could be amended by the German Parliament if an international crisis warrants it, the compromise said.

The stunning capitulation follows an embarrassing showing by Merkel’s Christian Democrats during September’s federal elections.  While the party again received the largest share of the vote, its support declined by more than 8%  from the prior election in Merkel’s worst-ever performance. Meanwhile, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party secured an unprecedented 13% of the vote, enough for it to earn representative in parliament – the first time a far-right party had been voted into Germany’s parliament since World War II.

To be sure, WSJ says the policy change is purely symbolic, adding that it would likely be scuttled by the time Merkel’s party successfully forms a governing coalition. Instead of representing meaningful change, the announcement is largely a sop to more moderate-leaning conservatives.

The deal appears to be, however, a largely symbolic concession to Ms. Merkel’s Bavaria allies that may change little in practice, partly because the right to asylum is enshrined in Germany’s constitution.

Such an upper limit will also likely be hard to push through in talks to forge a nationally yet untested coalition government with both potential partners, the pro-business Free Democrats and the Greens. Ms. Merkel on Saturday said she would seek a coalition with those parties and would let an extraordinary party convention vote on any coalition deal.

Indeed, Merkel’s Bavarian allies have been calling for an annual limit of 200,000 on refugees since Germany opened its borders in the fall of 2015. In passing the rule, Merkel is acknowledging that her center right party has moved too far to the center, and must now sharpen its conservative credentials.

Ultimately, whether the policy survives the complicated process of coalition building remains to be seen. But if nothing else, Merkel’s reluctant reversal validates countries like Poland and Hungary, which were threatened with EU fines over their steadfast refusals to take in refugees. 

With German Polls Closing, Merkel Looks To Historic 4th Term In Office; Far-Right AfD Set To Enter Bundestag

With polls closing shortly, Germany voted on Sunday in the country"s federal elections, with long-serving Chancellor Angela Merkel looks certain to win a historic fourth term in office (see full preview here). Absent last minute drama, the poll is also expected to see the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) entering parliament for the first time. The only outstanding question today is which other party or parties will join the chancellor’s Christian Democrats coalition in her new government

Polls opened at 8am (06:00 GMT) and first projections are expected when the polls close at 6pm.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier urged people to go vote. "Voting is a civic duty. Go and vote!" Steinmeier wrote in an opinion piece published in the Bild am Sonntag Sunday newspaper. "Every vote counts - your vote counts," Steinmeier doubled down, hoping to avoid the recent plunge in voter participation observed in France. "People who don"t vote allow others to decide the future of our country."

Some 61.5 million people are eligible to vote, and turnout was expected to be higher than the 71.5% of voters who turned up at the polls at the last election four years ago, however amid overcast skies and rain in much of Germany, turnout was little changed from the previous election in 2013, reaching 41.1% at 2 p.m. Berlin time, four hours before the close of voting.

Regardless of participation, the winner is certain: opinion polls suggest Merkel and her party are heading for a clear win, which would gift Merkel a historic fourth term. Merkel’s bloc, which includes her Bavarian allies in the Christian Social Union, had the support of just about 37 percent of voters in the final opinion polls during the campaign.

That’s about 15 percentage points ahead of its main challenger and current coalition partner, Martin Schulz’s Social Democrats. According to Bloomberg, four other parties -- the pro-business Free Democrats, the Greens, the anti-capitalist Left and, for the first time ever, the populist Alternative for Germany, or AfD, are poised to win seats in the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag

A fourth victory for the Chancellor would crown a remarkable comeback for Merkel from a plunge in her popularity amid the 2015-16 refugee crisis that saw 1.3 million migrants flood into Germany. Early this year, she was equal in the polls with Schulz, a fresh face in German domestic politics, but the Social Democrat’s challenge has faded in recent months and his party threatens to post its worst result since World War II. Merkel, 63 and chancellor for 12 years, has portrayed herself during the campaign as a beacon of stability in a world buffeted by crises.

Angela Merkel casts her vote in Germany"s general election #GermanyDecides pic.twitter.com/ei5VQyXxk9

— AFP news agency (@AFP) September 24, 2017

"There is no other European politician who could remotely match her in terms of her longevity, her credibility among her own people," said Al Jazeera"s Laurence Lee, reporting from Berlin. "It is impossible to imagine a conservative politician or even one from the left in any other European country taking in a million refugees and surviving politically."

“Despite everyone saying this election is boring, it’s actually crucial from a geo-strategic point of view,” Judy Dempsie, a senior associate at Carnegie Europe, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. The result will determine what kind of a partner the U.S. has in Europe on issues such as North Korea, she said. “Whoever wins the election on Sunday will have to become far more involved in these major geo-strategic issues that are outside Europe.”

In terms of preferred outcomes, Merkel"s Christian Democrats (CDU) can hope for a narrow majority with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), or the environmentalist Greens, or an untried coalition with both.

Alternatively, the CDU will continue its so-called grand coalition of the biggest parties with the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has seen its support erode to a historic low over the past decade. Martin Schulz, the SPD candidate and Merkel"s main contender, is stuck in polls of about 20 percent support, and has been unable to make any headway against the CDU.

The biggest surprise, however, the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to take at least 60 parliamentary seats in the election, after having narrowly failed to clear the 5% hurdle to enter parliament in 2013. It would be the first time in 60 years that a far-right party is represented in the Bundestag. AfD has been saying it will press for Merkel to be "severely punished" for opening the door to refugees and migrants, and attacked Islam by saying it "does not belong in Germany".

The outcome of today"s election is also being closely watched in Paris, where President Emmanuel Macron is proposing measures to deepen integration in the euro area that depend on the support of Germany, Europe’s biggest economy as well as its dominant country under Merkel.

Once voting ends at 6pm local time, television exit polls will reveal if the chancellor has managed to outperform expectations as she did in the previous election in 2013. If the CDU/CSU and the FDP can get to a combined 48.5 percent or so - a level they’ve not managed in polling since late August - that would allow Merkel to reprise the business-friendly coalition she led from 2009 to 2013, according to Bloomberg.

If not, she has two alternatives: as noted above, the first is to try to add the environmentalist Greens to that coalition with the FDP, but it’s a combination previously untested at national level. The easier option might be to continue the “grand coalition” with the SPD, though that would face resistance among grassroots Social Democrats who would prefer to go into opposition. While agreement on a CDU-FDP coalition might take just a few weeks, other options could see talks dragging on for months.

Whatever the final distribution of seats, a fourth election victory for Merkel, western Europe’s most powerful political leader, would equal those for her CDU predecessors Konrad Adenauer, the first postwar chancellor, and Helmut Kohl, who oversaw German reunification in 1990. She’s said she plans to serve a full four-year term, which would equal Kohl’s record 16 years in office

AfD In 3rd Place In German Election Polls: Unhappy Political Marriages Loom

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

German federal elections are Sunday, September 24. The most likely outcome of the election is another “Grand Coalition” but it will be a much-weakened coalition.  And If that coalition forms again, the rightwing AfD party is poised to become the largest opposition party.

Rightwing Turning Point

The Wall Street Journal reports Nationalist AfD Party Moves Into Third Place in German Election Polls

A last-minute surge in the polls has put a far-right party that wants to dial down German remembrance of the Holocaust within striking distance of becoming the country’s biggest opposition force.

The four-year-old Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has moved into third place and double digits in recent polls. If those numbers hold up until the Sept. 24 election and German Chancellor Angela Merkel repeats her current governing coalition with the center-left Social Democrats, the AfD would become the biggest opposition party in parliament.

No matter how exactly the results shake out, Sunday’s election seems assured to represent a turning point in postwar German history. Ms. Merkel’s center-right Christian Democrats are set to finish first, and she is expected to remain chancellor. But the AfD, polls show, is very likely to become the first far-right party in more than half a century to win seats in parliament.

“If the AfD in fact gets into the Bundestag, Nazis will be speaking in the Reichstag [building] for the first time in more than 70 years,” Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel recently told German magazine, Der Spiegel.

Political scientists say while the AfD isn’t a neo-Nazi party, it includes a right-wing-radical wing that appears to be strengthening. And without question, the anti-immigrant party breaks taboos in a country that has resisted right-wing populism for decades in the shadow of the Nazi era.

In parliament, AfD lawmakers would receive state financing to hire new staff and to set up offices in their districts, increasing the party’s nationwide reach. They would hold key seats on legislative committees, make nationally televised speeches, and be able to send official inquiries to the government, which ministries are required to answer.

Polls suggest the AfD draws voters from across the political spectrum who are unhappy with mainstream politics, particularly on immigration. A strong showing by the AfD could complicate things for Ms. Merkel by preventing her from being able to form a governing coalition with just one of two smaller parties, the pro-business Free Democrats or the environmentalist Greens. Instead, she may well need to form an unwieldy three-way coalition including them both—despite their ideological differences—and her conservative bloc. Repeating her current “grand coalition” with the Social Democrats would require her to overcome misgivings in both parties.

Eurointelligence View

For many international observers Germany is the exception: In times of Donald Trump, Brexit and Emmanuel Macron, Germans seem to live on another continent of social peace and political harmony. There is nothing of the desire for renewal witnessed during the French elections, or the desire to distinguish themselves shown by the Brexit vote. There is no major populist insurgency. Controversial subjects of our times like terrorism, refugees, immigration, military engagement, or nationalism, are avoided, observes Jean-Dominique Giuliani, president of the Robert Schuman Foundation.

But this peace is superficial, notes Philippe Rocard in Le Monde. There are about 20-30% frustrated voters in Germany, angry about Angela Merkel and her motto “Wir schaffen das” (we can make it) in immigration policy, or her handouts to bailout countries during the eurozone crisis. The three parties that capture the rising protest are the AFD, Die Linke and even the FDP with its radicalised discourse against Greece.

The rise of the AfD, which looks like it could become the third strongest party only four years after its foundation, would be a turning point in postwar German history, notes the WSJ. Never since the 1950s has a far-right party cleared the 5% hurdle. According to the recent polls, the AfD could get as many as 89 out of 703 seats. With its xenophobic and nationalistic rhetoric, the party breaks taboos in a country that has resisted right-wing populism for decades. To be fair, these numbers are still small compared to Austria where the Freedom party is polling 25%, or France where Marine Le Pen received 34% in the presidential run-off. But for Germany it is a major shift.

Unhappy Marriages

CDU (36) + FDP (22) would have a total percentage of about 58%. But many in SPD would prefer the SPD to be in opposition. Should that develop, SPD would be the largest opposition party.

If SDP chooses opposition, Merkel could form a majority government via an alliance of CDU (36), the Greens (7), and FDP (9). Currently, that alliance would have a bare majority with 52% of the vote.

Regardless of what happens, Merkel will be in a much-weakened position compared to now.

And other than a miracle CDU/FDP finish that achieves more than 50%, it may take quite some time after the election for the next government to form.

Germany: Muslim Biker Gang Vows To "Protect" Fellow Muslims

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

• Muslim vigilantes enforcing Islamic justice have become increasingly common in Germany. The government"s inability or unwillingness to stop them has led to the rise of anti-Muslim counter-vigilantes. Germany"s BfV intelligence agency, in its latest annual report, warned that an escalating action-reaction cycle could result in open warfare on German streets.


• The self-appointed "Sharia Police" urged both Muslim and non-Muslim passersby to attend mosques and to refrain from alcohol, cigarettes, drugs, gambling, music, pornography and prostitution. In November 2016, the Wuppertal District Court ruled that the Islamists did not break German law and were simply exercising their right to free speech. The ruling, which effectively legitimized Sharia law in Germany, was one of a growing number of instances in which German courts are — wittingly or unwittingly — promoting the establishment of a parallel Islamic legal system in the country.


• "Even if we still refuse to believe it: Parts of Germany are ruled by Islamic law! Polygamy, child marriages, Sharia judges — for far too long the German rule of law has not been enforced. Many politicians dreamed of multiculturalism.... This is not a question of folklore or foreign customs and traditions. It is a question of law and order. If the rule of law fails to establish its authority and demand respect for itself, then it can immediately declare its bankruptcy." — Franz Solms-Laubach, parliamentary correspondent, Bild.

German Muslims have established a self-styled biker gang — modelled on the Hells Angels — aimed at protecting fellow Muslims from the "ever-growing hatred of Islam," according to Die Welt.

The emergence of the group, which aspires to open chapters in cities and towns across Germany, has alarmed German authorities, who have warned against the growing threat of vigilantism in the country.

Muslim vigilantes enforcing Islamic justice have become increasingly common in Germany. The government"s inability or unwillingness to stop them has led to the rise of anti-Muslim counter-vigilantes. Germany"s BfV intelligence agency, in its latest annual report, warned that an escalating action-reaction cycle could result in open warfare on German streets.

The gang, which calls itself "Germanys Muslims" (the possessive apostrophe is not used in German), is based in Mönchengladbach and now has offshoots in Münster and Stuttgart. It was founded by Marcel Kunst, a German convert to Islam who also uses the name Mahmud Salam.

The gang"s uniform consists of a black leather jacket with a logo depicting a one-fingered salute, the "Finger of Tawheed," which represents belief in the oneness of Allah. The logo also includes the number 1438, which represents the current year in the Muslim calendar, as well as the number 713, which stands for GM (Germanys Muslims), the seventh and thirteenth letters of the alphabet.

Police say they do not know how many people belong to the gang, which was established in May. The group"s Facebook page, which has more than a thousand followers, describes itself as a "citizens" initiative" which advocates for the "peaceful coexistence between Muslims and non-Muslims in Germany." A mission statement dated June 15 reads:

"Our organization has been founded for only one purpose: To protect and support our brothers and sisters from the ever-growing hatred of Islam!!! To all non-Muslims who read this post, pay attention. The following could change your perception of us!!! We respect every religion and, as dictated by the Quran, do not force our faith on anyone!!! We do not sympathize with the Islamic State and are against compulsion in faith and in marriage!!! ISLAM DOES NOT RECOGNIZE HONOR KILLINGS AS IS OFTEN SUPPOSED!!! The raised finger in our logo is not from the so-called Islamic State. In our faith it symbolizes that there is only one God!!! We have summarized 40 commandments from the Quran for you....IMPORTANT. Whoever gets into a fight on the road or elsewhere (except for self-defense) will be expelled from our group without further discussion!!!"

Although "Germanys Muslims" claims to disavow violence, police say that several of its senior members are known to be Salafists, whose aim is to replace liberal democracy in Germany with Sharia law. One of its members, for instance, was detained as a security precaution during the Tour de France, which passed through Mönchengladbach on July 2.

German police describe the group"s founder, Kunst, as an "Islamist who moves in Salafist circles." In a video that is no longer available, Kunst called on the group"s members to protect mosques and Muslim women.

In a July 27 interview with Die Welt, Isabella Hannen, spokeswoman for the Mönchengladbach Police Department, revealed that police met with Kunst on July 5 and warned him that "vigilantism will not be tolerated." They also stressed that the monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force (Gewaltmonopol) is the exclusive domain of the state. On July 28, "Germanys Muslims" issued a statement saying that the group respects the authority of the state. "So far, we have no evidence that they are a danger, but we are keeping our eyes on them," Hannen said.

An illustrative photo of an "outlaw" motorcycle gang. (Image source: Roy Lister/Wikimedia Commons)

In its annual report released on July 4, Germany"s domestic intelligence agency, the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (BfV), said that Salafism is the "fastest-growing Islamic movement in Germany." The report revealed that the number of Salafists in Germany jumped to 9,700 in 2016, up from 8,350 in 2015; 7,000 in 2014; 5,500 in 2013; 4,500 in 2012; and 3,800 in 2011. According to the BfV:

"Salafists are seeking to impose a theocracy based on their interpretation of the Sharia and in which the liberal democratic order no longer applies. Political and jihadist Salafists share the same basic ideology. They differ primarily in the means by which they wish to achieve their objectives.... Nevertheless, it should be noted that political Salafism has an ambivalent relationship to violence... it does not always prohibit religiously-sanctioned violence."

A previous BfV report stated:

"The absolutist nature of Salafism contradicts significant parts of the German constitutional order. Specifically, Salafism rejects the democratic principles of separation of state and religion, popular sovereignty, religious and sexual self-determination, gender equality and the fundamental right to physical integrity."

The BfV also warned of the danger of civil unrest:

"The potential threat posed by Salafist violence remains dangerously high. Salafist violence could create an additional dynamic through interactions with extremist groups from other "hostile" ideological camps, as already occurred in individual cases in the past."

The BfV was referring to an alliance between hooligans from rival football clubs who temporarily set aside their mutual hatred for each other in order to unite against a common enemy: radical Salafists. At one point, the grouping, known as Hooligans versus Salafists (HoGeSa), had more than 40,000 followers on its Facebook page before it was shut down by Facebook censors.

According to some commentators, the rise of HoGeSa was fueled in part by a growing sense of frustration that the German government is not doing enough to curb the spread of Islam in the country. Others said the group was incited by the Salafists" increasingly provocative support for replacing Germany"s democratic order with Islamic law.

In Wuppertal, for example, seven self-appointed "Sharia Police" sparked public outrage when they distributed yellow leaflets which established a "Sharia-controlled zone" in the Elberfeld district of the city. The vigilantes urged both Muslim and non-Muslim passersby to attend mosques and to refrain from alcohol, cigarettes, drugs, gambling, music, pornography and prostitution.

In November 2016, however, the Wuppertal District Court ruled that the Islamists did not break German law and were simply exercising their right to free speech. The ruling, which effectively legitimized Sharia law in Germany, was one of a growing number of instances in which German courts are — wittingly or unwittingly — promoting the establishment of a parallel Islamic legal system in the country.

In Berlin, a hundred Islamists are now openly enforcing Sharia law on city streets, according to local police who are investigating a recent string of violent assaults in the German capital. The self-appointed morality police involve Salafists from Chechnya, a predominantly Sunni Muslim region in Russia. The vigilantes are using threats of violence to discourage Chechen migrants from integrating into German society; they are also promoting the establishment of a parallel Islamic legal system in Germany. German authorities appear unable to stop them.

Bild, the largest-circulation newspaper in Germany, recently warned that the country was "capitulating to Islamic law." In a special "Sharia Report" it stated:

"The 2013 coalition agreement between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats promised: "We want to strengthen the state"s legal monopoly. We will not tolerate illegal parallel justice." But nothing has been done."

In a commentary, Franz Solms-Laubach, Bild"s parliamentary correspondent, wrote:

"Even if we still refuse to believe it: Parts of Germany are ruled by Islamic law! Polygamy, child marriages, Sharia judges — for far too long the German rule of law has not been enforced. Many politicians dreamed of multiculturalism.... This is not a question of folklore or foreign customs and traditions. It is a question of law and order. If the rule of law fails to establish its authority and demand respect for itself, then it can immediately declare its bankruptcy."

Meanwhile, German authorities have been fighting an uphill battle against an extremely violent "rocker" gang, the "Osmanen Germania" — "Ottoman Germania" — which consists mostly of Turkish Germans and, like the "Germanys Muslims" gang, is modeled on the Hells Angels.

The "Ottoman Germania" group, which claims to be a boxing club concerned about the welfare of young people, was founded after Hells Angels decided to allow non-Turkish migrants to join. Police say "Ottoman Germania" is an effort by former Turkish German members of the Hells Angels to protect their market share of organized crime.

The "Ottoman Germania" group is one of the fastest-growing gangs in Germany. Within months of its founding in April 2015, the group had established dozens of chapters across the country. Today the group, which profits from prostitution, extortion and the trafficking of weapons and drugs, operates across Europe, despite repeated police raids.

German authorities believe the "Ottoman Germania" is close to the Turkish government, which uses the group to fight Turkey"s internal political struggles in Germany. Police say the gang also cooperates with Germany"s Salafists.

Dutch Election Results Confirm 'Far Right Populism' Still On The Rise In Europe

Authored by Alex Gorka via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Those who support the idea of globalism and strive for closer European integration believe the results of the Dutch election indicate the tide has been stemmed, with Eurosceptics and «populist» forces on the defensive. The buck stops here. This is the end of domino effect. The reshaping of Europe has been prevented. The pro-NATO, pro-EU establishment elites are to see glory days again.

Is it really so if you get to the bottom of it?

The future of Europe remains to be at stake, including the UK, Germany and France. Will the concept of United Europe exist in one form or another? Will Scotland stay in the United Kingdom? Will Germany and France distance themselves from the United States? Some of these questions could be answered sooner than expected.

This year may become a turning point with the votes to take place in Germany, France and, probably, Italy. In a month, France will have a new president and Germans will have a new parliament elected in September. The example of the Netherlands may have little influence on the votes.

Let’s look at the facts. Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom made a substantial gain. It won 20 seats (of 150) according to the preliminary results, which is 5 seats more than in the previous election in 2012. The two governing parties got half as many seats as at the last election in 2012. The prime minister’s Party for Freedom and Democracy lost 8 seats and its coalition partner, the Labor Party (PvdA), lost 29 – an impressive defeat!

Actually, it’s a significant loss for those who ruled the country and a big gain (not big enough but still) for the right wing Eurosceptics led by Wilders. Many key points of the Party for Freedom’s program were «borrowed» by PM Mark Rutte’s People"s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and Christian Democrats. The popularity was raised due to the tough stance taken in the conflict with Turkey – something Wilders had been calling for. Actually, Prime Minister Rutte was riding to power on a wave of anti-migrant, anti-Islam sentiments.

The Sybrand Buma"s Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) is all but certain to participate in the next governing coalition with 19 seats won (12, 5%) – an increase of 6 seats. The party has gained ground by adopting a tough line similar to Rutte"s on immigration, adding a focus on communal values and a touch of nationalism to tap voter concerns about Dutch identity. It has proposed introducing singing the national anthem in schools and mandatory community service. According to Sybrand Buma, Her Majesty Queen Máxima should renounce her Argentine citizenship (she was born in Buenos Aires). The CDA presence in government would ensure a conservative stamp on any coalition.

Media rarely mention the fact that another right wing anti-EU and anti-migrants party – the Forum for Democracy – took part in its first election to win 2 seats (1,8%) – not a bad start for a party created only in September 2016. It calls for restoring ties with Russia among other things.

The main result is opposite to what it appears to be at first glance. The outcome of the Dutch election conforms to the current trend – Euroscepticism is on the rise across Europe. The winning forces are often called populist but in reality they are anti-establishment movements which emerged as a result of voters being fed up with left or right windbags. People want them gone and the entire political landscape in Europe fundamentally changed.

Socialists have few chances in France and the chances of Angela Merkel becoming Chancellor again are dim enough. Martin Schultz is a serious rival to reckon with.

Newly founded or old anti-establishment parties continue to make gains. Perhaps not today, but they will come to power. In a couple of months Marine Le Pen may become President of France to radically reform European politics. Even if she loses, Le Pen will remain the most popular politician in the country who is able to win the presidential election in 2022. Artificial creations designed by experts for a particular task, like Emmanuel Macron, for instance, can’t stop it. Nothing can prevent the new wave of politicians from coming to power.

The Dutch election has not changed anything. It has failed to turn the tide. The EU continues to fall apart. The European integration will never be the same. More and more EU members challenge the existing pattern.

The March 16 vote in the Netherlands is far from being a harbinger of Eurosceptics’ movements fading away. Quite to the contrary, it has confirmed the trend – the Old Continent is going through changes. We’ll never have the EU we once knew. The process may temporarily slow down but it’s too late to stop it.

Nexit Looms - Dutch Parliament To Debate Leaving The Eurozone

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Potential Eurozone disruption possibilities keep compounding.

For example, the Netherlands Parliament will now debate leaving the Eurozone.

In long-winded wording for a potential “Nexit”, Reuters reports Dutch relations with euro up for debate after lawmakers commission probe

The Netherlands’ future relationship with the euro will be comprehensively debated by its parliament following elections in March after lawmakers commissioned a report on the currency’s future.

The motion approving the investigation by the Council of State, the government’s legal advisor, coincides with a rising tide of euroscepticism in Europe, which populist parties are hoping to tap into in a series of national elections this year also taking in eurozone powerhouses France and Germany.

The probe will examine whether it would be possible for the Dutch to withdraw from the single currency, and if so how, said lawmaker Pieter Omtzigt.

Omtzigt, of the opposition Christian Democrats, tabled the parliamentary motion calling for the investigation, which legislators passed unanimously late on Thursday.

It was prompted by concerns the ECB’s ultra-low interest rates are hurting Dutch savers, especially pensioners, and doubts as to whether its bond purchasing programs are legal, he said.

Its findings will be presented in several months, by which time the make-up of parliament will have changed dramatically.

While most Dutch voters say they favor retaining the euro, the eurosceptic far-right party of Geert Wilders is expected to book large gains though it is unlikely to win enough votes to form a government.

The most probable outcome of the March 15 vote is a new centrist coalition including some parties, such as Omtzigt’s Christian Democrats, that have been vocal in their opposition to current ECB policy.

“The problems with the euro have not been solved,” Omtzigt said. “This is a way for us to look at ways forward with no taboos.”

Analysis

Geert Wilders is likely to “win” the Dutch election. In this case, “win” means get more votes than any other political party.

However, the odds that Wilders can form a stable coalition with Wilders heading up the government is slim.

Netherlands Polls

The first line in the above table of Netherlands Polls is from the 2012 election, the rest of the lines are from February of this year.

History suggests those polls may be wildly inaccurate, but most of the parties ruled out a coalition with Wilders’ PVV.

In terms on “Nexit”, if Wilders can get 26% of the vote with another 24% agreeing, there just may be enough votes in parliament for the Netherlands to abandon the Euro, assuming the public would go along.

And "Nexit" odds are increasing...

h/t @Schuldensuehner