What Will Stocks Do Under A New Fed Chair?

Via LPLResearch.com,

President Trump is reportedly set to announce his selection for the next Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the very near future, with Jerome Powell emerging as the likely nominee.

Though he’s yet to make a final decision, reports suggest that a final decision will come before November 3.

In our latest Bond Market Perspectives, we took a dive into the potential shift in composition of Fed members in 2018, in addition to the chair, and why it could be quite hawkish—but what does new Fed leadership really mean?

Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Just as a new President brings uncertainty, a new Fed chair can do the same. In fact, going clear back to Charles Hamlin (the first Fed chair) in 1914 and his 14 successors, the Dow is down on average six months after a new chair.”

Keep in mind that the sample size is quite small and the results below are skewed due to WWI, the Great Depression, and the crash of 1987.

We’re not suggesting that a new Fed chair is likely to trigger a sharp selloff, but it would add to market uncertainty, and markets don’t like uncertainty.

So we wouldn’t be surprised if Trump’s announcement spurs a bout of volatility, but when we look at the bigger picture, we continue to see very few signs of the excesses seen at previous major market peaks. This suggests very low odds of a recession beginning over the next 12–18 months and a likely continuation of the equity bull market in 2018.

This and That Vol 3 – Where There’s Smoke, There’s Fire

This and That Vol 3 – Where There’s Smoke, There’s Fire

By

Cognitive Dissonance

 

 

Lots of original work available exclusively on my Patreon blog. For as little as $3 a month you can support my creative work and access all content. Please consider doing so at https://www.patreon.com/CognitiveDissonance

 

There are a couple of phrases I often use to neatly describe the personal and social dysfunction exploding into view these days. On the personal side, my “We are only as sick as our deepest darkest secrets” perfectly illustrates how personally damaging those things are that we hide from everyone, especially ourselves.

Since a society is composed of, and accurately reflects, its individual citizens, it stands to reason this dysfunction would reverberate throughout society even if it manifested differently on an individual basis. It is entirely possible, and in fact a regular occurrence, for hundreds of millions of people to share a ‘secret’ by simply not talking about the root issues of our social dysfunction.

We as a society will nearly always talk over, under and around the core issues that are slowly grinding away at our sanity. Therefore “What is not discussed is far more important that what is”.  A perfect example of this is the recent silliness of mass righteous indignation about kneeling or not during an act of coerced/conditioned symbolism (the ‘national anthem’) when so many far more important things are ignored like monsters hidden under the bed.

What is often lost by those on the sidelines, either participating in the drama or confused why there is so much ado about nothing, is that the drama IS necessary both for the participants and the viewers. It does not matter which side of the divide we lay on, only that we are engaged in not talking about the things we do not wish to talk about.

To many people my statements above will ring as nonsensical, even ridiculous, because in their view we talk incessantly about everything. The internet sees to that, which is abuzz with endless conversations and dialogue. In my opinion this is a false view and a misunderstanding of what is actually occurring. And it is a perfect example of how the illusion is often just as effective as the real thing, and sometimes more so.

Political correctness, also known as officially promoted self censorship, doesn’t just apply to political speech. We all moderate what we say (and think) in ways large and small depending upon a million variables too numerous to list here.

While we would like to believe society at large determines what speech is acceptable and what speech is not, in practice a few key meme makers leverage their influence via the mainstream media megaphone to set the water mark the public is then coerced into following.

You do not need to control the herd, just a few of the lead cattle. Even then ‘control’ is too strong a word, for nudge would be more in line with how directional bias is achieved by those who wish to command. This is done in part by subtly limiting subjects to be discussed, often but not exclusively via political correctness, but then encouraging everyone to engage in vigorous debate within these narrow confines.

Yes, there are people who will draw outside the lines and talk about anything and everything, particularly on the Internet. But for the brainwashed masses, meaning those who wish to remain safely within their mainstream cognitive comfort zone, these people are easily marginalized and dismissed as kooks, misfits, conspiracy theorists, mentally unstable and mad-as-a-hatter fruitcakes.

Never underestimate the lengths to which people (that’s you and me folks) will go to believe what they want to believe. Therefore all that needs to be done is to convince people they want to believe what they are told to believe. The glowing idiot box in the corner (and increasing in our back pocket) is the perfect vehicle for that task.

 

              

 

Color me surprised, shocked even, that at the last minute the ‘government’ has withheld full and final disclosure of the last remaining documents related to the John F. Kennedy assassination, ostensibly because they needed more time to examine about 200 for possible (further) redaction.

I don’t even know where to begin here other than to confess to my cynical sarcasm. I do not believe a single word uttered by any ‘intelligence’ agency or those who carry their water. From their perspective it is their job, their honor bound duty, to lie about everything and anything in order to protect and promote their power and control. It’s all about furthering American hegemony at all cost, including abusing any and all remaining rights not previously stripped from average Jane and Joe.

Earlier in life I learned that once you begin to lie, even if you never lie again, additional lies must be created and promoted in order to support or supplant old lies. It’s a vicious circle that feeds upon itself and serves no purpose other than to maintain and support the status quo…especially our personal status quo.

We lie to gain some type of advantage, even if the benefit is merely to maintain our own inner lies and denial. The same applies to nations, particularly when that nation maintains its dominant position via bullying, manipulation, falsehoods and various other belligerent behaviors including outright war.

Ultimately the most egregious lies, thus the most carefully crafted and concealed subterfuge, is reserved for the thoroughly domesticated and conditioned native population.

“We the People” have benefited greatly from American hegemony in ways not readily apparent to those completely immersed within the grand illusion of American exceptionalism. Obviously it is to our general and personal benefit for the lies to continue so that the status quo remains in place. The ultimate lie is that present day conditions can, and will, remain in place indefinitely.

They cannot, they will not, they have not. The financial, social and cultural rumblings currently echoing within the hollowed out shell of America are the precursor crumbling to the ongoing (slow motion) collapse. The lies promoted by the powers that be are intended to gain advantage over you and me, along with any one or thing still willing and able to lend the US money, power, prestige, faith and belief.

The looting will continue until the middle class has been stripped of all remaining wealth.

So why would they continue to lie about the JFK assassination? Because we want the lies to continue. It’s that simple. Daddy, tell me another lie so I can believe it’s the truth.

If you were told the truth, whatever that truth may be, exactly what would you do about it? Not think, not bitch and complain, but actually do? For example, if you were informed that elements inside and/or outside the government conspired to kill the President of the United States, then they, along with agencies of the government, acted in concert for decades up to present day to cover up this fact, what would you do?

The answer is mostly likely little to nothing. But that is not the point.

The secret sauce to keeping America limping along and the looting on track is your faith and belief things are not as bad as your average 3^rd world banana republic. Undeniable evidence things might actually be equal to, or worse than, a Central American banana republic would propel a tidal wave of fear and disillusionment among the general public, quickly followed by a loss of faith and belief in our leadership and ourselves.

Deep down inside in places we dare not look, we know this to be the truth. We also know without a shred of doubt that not only are we sleeping with the enemy, but we are entirely dependent upon the sociopaths and their skewed and rigged socioeconomic system to maintain our own (declining) lifestyle. And that lifestyle depends upon our continuing faith and belief in both the sociopaths and the system.

We ARE the system. We support the system. Without our faith and belief the system rapidly collapses. This is called a positive feedback loop in that the faith and belief system is self reinforcing to the greatest extent possible. But nothing lasts forever, in this case simply because more and more parasites are sucking the lifeblood from the nation.

We know this. It’s obvious. But we are desperate to believe it’s fixable (with little to no ‘cost’ to us) when it is not. To admit to ourselves this inconvertible truth means we must confront the fact the end is near. And quite frankly, we’ve grown accustomed to having our cake and eating it too. Or at least to the prevailing illusion this is the case.

And so we lie to ourselves and expect, even demand, our leaders continue to lie to us even as we claim we wish to know the truth.

There is no doubt that, with regard to most ‘truths’, we really do want to know the truth. For example we want to be told when a government official has embezzled money, misallocated funds or lied to benefit others, for these truths do not threaten our fundamental belief in democracy and the rule of law.

But to discover, or be told without a doubt the government was involved in what essentially would have been a coup of the Presidential office of the United States which was, and continues to be, covered up to this day would rock people’s faith and belief in the foundation of so-called democracy. 

If this were to occur, we might actually have to start asking serious questions about other ‘events’ in the recent past. Worse, we would then begin to feel obligated to do something about it. At the very least it would threaten our own relatively comfortable status quo.

Can’t have that, now can we? If nothing else we demand (the illusion of) law and order from our keepers in exchange for remaining mostly quiet and compliant.

The durability and believability of a lie is in direct proportion to the number of people who benefit from the lie or who would be hurt if the lie were exposed and acknowledged. For many, the primary disadvantage, at least initially, is simply the assault upon our ego that we swallowed such a big lie for so long.

The bigger the lie, the easier it is to keep it going once swallowed whole by the public. Our subservient devotion to a higher authority and its paternal hierarchy helps to initially cement the lie in place, then to keep questions at bay while the cement cures and hardens.

Even those who remain skeptical or refuse to believe the lie are diminished and isolated by the tyranny of the majority opinion who (desperately) wishes to believe the authority, particularly when doubt is present. Of course, doubt is always present because only the authority can proclaim something as true or false.

See how that works?

At best the most recent JFK disclosures are part and parcel of an ongoing, and ever evolving, psychological operation directed at the American people. How do you control a large group of people that far outnumber those who wish to control the group? Divide and conquer is the age old method used consistently and successfully to distract, divert and divide the restless herd.

We ain’t seen nuttin’ yet! Stay tuned for more of the same technique applied with increasing force and less subtly.

 

 

I would be remiss if I didn’t at least mention that all of the above is not exclusively an American problem. While lying and denial are decidedly human traits, “We the People” seem to take it to extremes in our mindless pursuit of conspicuous consumption.

And what is the number one American export? That would be the American culture of mindless consumption and overall excess. More is always better, even when it isn’t.

This uniquely American export is an absolute requirement if the practice of non sustainable excessive consumption is to be maintained to the bitter end. When running a Ponzi, new marks must constantly be found and exploited if the status quo is to be maintained for those who ultimately benefit from the Ponzi, usually the founders and/or those at the top of the food chain.

This is a disease, a mind virus, an aliment of the spirit that will ultimately kill many of its hosts if only from an early death caused by disease and decay due to the excessive consumption. The obesity epidemic spreading throughout the western world is a perfect example. Everyone is looking for a single source, such as overeating, for what is causing the problem when it is the cumulative effects of a dysfunctional way of life that is destroying us individually and collectively from within.

If we do not recognize, acknowledge and then own our personal participation in this dance of self destructive insanity, nothing will change. How can we possibly expect others to change if we are not willing to do so ourselves? It all begins within.

 

10/29/2017

Cognitive Dissonance

Paul Craig Roberts On "The Weaponization Of History And Journalism"

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

"...we don’t need no stinkin’ facts..."

In the United States, facts, an important element of truth, are not important. They are not important in the media, politics, universities, historical explanations, or the courtroom. Non-factual explanations of the collapse of three World Trade Center buildings are served up as the official explanation. Facts have been politicized, emotionalized, weaponized and simply ignored. As David Irving has shown, Anglo-American histories of World War 2 are, for the most part, feel-good histories, as are “civil war” histories as Thomas DiLorenzo and others have demonstrated. Of course, they are feel good only for the victors. Their emotional purpose means that inconvenient facts are unpalatable and ignored.

Writing the truth is no way to succeed as an author. Only a small percentage of readers are interested in the truth. Most want their biases or brainwashing vindicated. They want to read what they already believe. It is comforting, reassuring. When their ignorance is confronted, they become angry. The way to be successful as a writer is to pick a group and give them what they want. There is always a market for romance novels and for histories that uphold a country’s myths. On the Internet successful sites are those that play to one ideology or another, to one emotion or the other, or to one interest group or another. The single rule for success is to confine truth to what the readership group you serve believes.

Keep this in mind when you receive shortly my September quarterly request for your support of this website. There are not many like it. This site does not represent an interest group, an ideology, a hate group, an ethnic group or any cause other than truth. This is not to say that this site is proof against error. It is only to say that truth is its purpose.

Karl Marx said that there were only class truths.

Today we have a large variety of truths: truths for feminists, truths for blacks, Muslims, Hispanics, homosexuals, transgendered, truths for the foreign policy community that serves the military/security complex, truths for the neocons, truths for the One Percent that control the economy and the economists who serve them, truths for “white supremacists,” itself a truth term for their opponents. You can add to the list. The “truth” in these “truths” is that they are self-serving of the group that expresses them. Their actual relation to truth is of no consequence to those espousing the “truths.”

Woe to you if you don’t go along with someone’s or some group’s truth. Not even famous film-maker Oliver Stone is immune. Recently, Stone expressed his frustration with the “False Flag War Against Russia.”  Little doubt that Stone is frustrated with taunts and accusations from completely ignorant media talking heads in response to his documentary, Putin, based on many hours of interviews over two years. Stone came under fire, because instead of demonizing Putin and Russia, thus confirming the official story, he showed us glimpses of the truth.

The organization, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, published a report that completely destroyed the false accusations about Trump/Russian hacking of the US presidential election. The Nation published an objective article about the report and was assaulted by writers, contributors, and readers for publishing information that weakens the case, which the liberal/progressive/left in conjunction with the military/security complex, is orchestrating against Trump. The magazine’s audience felt that the magazine had an obligation not to truth but to getting Trump out of office. Reportedly, the editor is considering whether to recall the article.

So here we have left-leaning Oliver Stone and leftwing magazine, The Nation, under fire for making information available that is out of step with the self-serving “truth” to which the liberal/progressive/left and their ally, the military/security complex, are committed.

When a country has a population among whom there are no truths except group-specific truths, the country is so divided as to be over and done with. “A house divided against itself cannot stand.” The white liberal/progressive/left leaders of divisive Identity Politics have little, if any, comprehension of where the movement they think they lead is headed. At the moment the hate is focused on the “alt-right,” which has become “white nationalists,” which has become “white supremacists.” These “white supremacists” have become epitomized by statues of Confederate soldiers and generals. All over the South, if local governments are not removing the statues, violent crazed thugs consumed by hate attempt to destroy them. In New Orleans someone with money bused in thugs from outside flying banners that apparently are derived from a communist flag to confront locals protesting the departure of their history down the Orwellian Memory Hole.

What happens when all the monuments are gone? Where does the hate turn next? Once non-whites are taught to hate whites, not even self-hating whites are safe. How do those taught hate tell a good white from a bad white? They can’t and they won’t. By definition by Identity Politics, whites, for now white heterosexual males, are the victimizers and everyone else is their victim. The absurdity of this concept is apparent, yet the concept is unshaken by its absurdity. White heterosexual males are the only ones without the privilege of quotas. They and only they can be put at the back of the bus for university admissions, employment, promotion, and only their speech is regulated. They, and only they, can be fired for using “gender specific terms,” for using race specific terms, for unknowingly offending some preferred group member by using a word that is no longer permissible. They can be called every name in the book, beginning with racist, misogynist, and escalating, and no one is punished for the offense.

Recently, a professor in the business school of a major university told me that he used the word, girls, in a marketing discussion. A young womyn was offended. The result was he received a dressing down from the dean. Another professor told me that at his university there was a growing list of blacklisted words. It wasn’t clear whether the list was official or unofficial, simply professors trying to stay up with Identity Politics and avoid words that could lead to their dismissal. Power, they tell me, is elsewhere than in the white male, the true victimized class.

For years commentators have recognized the shrinking arena of free speech in the United States. Any speech that offends anyone but a white male can be curtailed by punishment. Recently, John Whitehead, constitutional attorney who heads the Rutherford Institute, wrote that it is now dangerous just to defend free speech. Reference to the First Amendment suffices to bring denunciation and threats of violence. Ron Unz notes that any website that can be demonized as “controversial” can find itself disappeared by Internet companies and PayPal. They simply terminate free speech by cutting off service.

It must be difficult to teach some subjects, such as the “civil war” for example. How would it be possible to describe the actual facts? For example, for decades prior to the Union’s invasion of the Confederacy North/South political conflict was over tariffs, not over slavery.

The fight over which new states created from former “Indian” territories would be “slave” and which “free” was a fight over keeping the protectionist (North) vs. free trade (South) balance in Congress equal so that the budding industrial north could not impose a tariff regime. Two days before Lincoln’s inaugural address, a stiff tariff was signed into law. That same day in an effort to have the South accept the tariff and remain in or return to the Union—some southern states had seceded, some had not—Congress passed the Corwin amendment that provided constitutional protection to slavery. The amendment prohibited the federal government from abolishing slavery.

Two days later in his inaugural address, which seems to be aimed at the South, Lincoln said: “I have no purpose, directly or indirectly, to interfere with the institution of slavery in the States where it exists. I believe I have no lawful right to do so, and I have no inclination to do so.”

Lincoln’s beef with the South was not over slavery or the Fugitive Slave Act. Lincoln did not accept the secessions and still intended to collect the tariff that now was law. Under the Constitution slavery was up to the states, but the Constitution gave the federal government to right to levy a tariff. Lincoln said that “there needs to be no bloodshed or violence” over collecting the tariff. Lincoln said he will use the government’s power only “to collect the duties and imposts,” and that “there will be no invasion, no using of force against or among the people anywhere.”

Here is Lincoln, “the Great Emancipator,” telling the South that they can have slavery if they will pay the duties and imposts on imports. How many black students and whites brainwashed by Identity Politics are going to sit there and listen to such a tale and not strongly protest the racist professor justifying white supremacy and slavery?

So what happens to history when you can’t tell it as it is, but instead have to refashion it to fit the preconceived beliefs formed by Identity Politics? The so-called “civil war,” of course, is far from the only example.

In its document of secession, South Carolina made a case that the Constitutional contract had been broken by some of the northern states breaking faith with Article IV of the Constitution. This is true. However, it is also true that the Southern states had no inclination to abide by Section 8 of Article I, which says that “Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises.” So, also the South by not accepting the tariff was not constitutionally pure.

Before history became politicized, historians understood that the North intended for the South to bear costs of the North’s development of industry and manufacturing. The agricultural South preferred the lower priced goods from England. The South understood that a tariff on British goods would push import prices above the high northern prices and lower the South’s living standards in the interest of raising living standards in the North. The conflict was entirely economic and had nothing whatsoever to do with slavery, which also had existed in the North. Indeed, some northern states had “exclusion ordinances” and anti-immigration provisions in their state constitutions that prohibited the immigration of blacks into northern states.

If freeing slaves were important to the North and avoiding tariffs was important to the South, one can imagine some possible compromises. For example, the North could have committed to building factories in the South. As the South became industrialized, new centers of wealth would arise independently from the agricultural plantations that produced cotton exports. The labor force would adjust with the economy, and slavery would have evolved into free labor.

Unfortunately, there were too many hot heads. And so, too, today.

In America there is nothing on the horizon but hate. Everywhere you look in America you see nothing but hate. Putin is hated. Russia is hated. Muslims are hated. Venezuela is hated. Assad is hated. Iran is hated. Julian Assange is hated. Edward Snowden is hated. White heterosexual males are hated. Confederate monuments are hated. Truth-tellers are hated. “Conspiracy theorists” are hated. No one escapes being hated.

Hate groups are proliferating, especially on the liberal/progressive/left. For example, RootsAction has discovered a statue of Robert E. Lee in the U.S. Capitol and urges all good people to demand its removal. Whether the level of ignorance that RootsAction personifies is real or just a fund-raising ploy, I do not know. But clearly RootsAction is relying on public ignorance in order to get the response that they want. In former times when the US had an educated population, everyone understood that there was a great effort to reconcile the North and South and that reconciliation would not come from the kind of hate-mongering that now infects RootsAction and most of the action groups and websites of the liberal/progressive/left.

Today our country is far more divided that it was in 1860.

Identity Politics has taught Americans to hate each other, but, nevertheless, the zionist neoconservatives assure us that we are “the indispensable, exceptional people.” We, a totally divided people, are said to have the right to rule the world and to bomb every country that doesn’t accept our will into the stone age.

In turn the world hates America. Washington has told too many lies about other countries and used those lies to destroy them. Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan, Somalia, and large chunks of Syria and Pakistan are in ruins. Washington intends yet more ruin with Venezuela currently in the cross hairs.

Eleven years ago Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez resonated with many peoples when he said in his UN speech: “Yesterday at this very podium stood Satan himself [Bush], speaking as if he owned the world; you can still smell the sulphur.”

It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that America is a font for hatred both at home and abroad.

98% Of Greeks Consider Their Economic Situation As "Bad", Survey Says

Nearly a decade after the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, economic spirits are reviving, a PEW survey found. Economic spirits reviving everywhere? No. Not everywhere. Greeks remain pessimistic. No wonder about that, as they see no present and no future.

As KeepTalkingGreece,com reports, according to a survey conducted by Pew Research Center, many Europeans, Japanese and Americans feel better today about their economies than they did before the financial crisis. More broadly, in 11 of 18 countries from across the globe that were surveyed in both 2016 and 2017, publics feel more positive about their economy than they did a year ago.

The Dutch, Germans, Swedes and Indians see their national economies in the most positive light. While global publics are increasingly upbeat about economic conditions, the overall view of the economy is still in negative territory in many countries. Overall, a median of only 46% in the 32 nations surveyed this year say their current economy is doing well.

But as the table below illustrates, a staggering 98% of Greeks view their current economic situation as "bad."

At the same time, many are concerned about the future: A median of just 41% believe that a child in their country today will grow up to be better off financially than their parents. The most pessimistic about prospects for the next generation are the French, Japanese and Greeks.

People in advanced economies are quite pessimistic about young people’s financial prospects, just 34% believe they will be better off than the current generation.

Such despair is particularly strong in Greece, Japan, France, Australia, Canada, Spain and the UK, where roughly seven-in-ten people say today’s children will be worse off.

Uncertainty And The Humility Of Forecasting An Unknowable Future

Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

While we"re being reassured that all these grandiose promises are resting on trends that are as reliably predictable as the tides, the next easily predictable crisis will very likely reveal the trends are speculative bubbles that will predictably burst in a devastating reversion.

Certainty and uncertainty come in a variety of flavors. "Certainty" seems rather definite, but lurking beneath certainty is the more scientifically verifiable notion of probability: the probability of outcomes can be high enough to qualify as certain and low enough to qualify as unlikely.

We can"t know with perfect certainty that our neighbor hasn"t invented a death-ray and may decide to test it on us due to that simmering feud over his dog Fluffy"s antics on our yard.

But we can make an assessment of the probability of this occurring, and conclude the probability is low with a high degree of certainty.

This assessment should change, of course, if we hear strange noises in his shop and notice shrubs in his back yard are now charred in peculiarly symmetric circles--and we learn he previously worked at a national lab on high-energy weapons but was dismissed for pursuing crazy ideas about developing handheld death-ray devices, i.e. phasers. (Star Trek fans, please raise a cheer.)

This brings us to a critical distinction between low-probability events, i.e. known unknowns a.k.a. highly unlikely "long-tail" events, and unknown unknowns, a.k.a. "black swans" made famous by author Nassim Taleb.

What is a known unknown? Death qualifies as a known unknown: we know with a high degree of certainty that the vast majority of living things eventually die (even cancer cells die once their host dies)--but the timing of their individual natural death is inherently uncertain, due to the great number of inputs, variables and causal factors intrinsic to life.

Statistically, there is a high degree of certainty that any dynamic data series will eventually revert to the mean. Spikes in asset prices will typically drop back to the trendline, but the timing of this reversion is intrinsically uncertain due to the unpredictable interactions and feedback loops inherent in complex systems of dynamic inputs and causal factors.

Thus statisticians who are tracking a tulip-bulb (or South Seas Company) like bubble in a speculative asset can forecast the eventual collapse of the bubble, but not the date and time of the reversion.

This collapse (reversion) can be forecast with a very high degree of certainty. (If tulip bulb prices had continued rising with no reversion, tulip bulbs would now cost $1 trillion each).

There are causal mechanisms that explain this eventual collapse: the market eventually runs out of "greater fools" willing to outbid other buyers seeking to buy tulip bulbs, and sellers deciding to cash in their gains overwhelm the few buyers still in the market.

Once the speculative frenzy driven by certainty of staggering profits evaporates into a fear of equally staggering losses, the bubble loses its momentum and prices revert to the long-term trend (often after briefly falling below the mean, requiring a reversion higher).

The bubble in tulips could not be forecast like a reversion to trend. We can forecast that humanity"s attraction to speculative frenzies will not disappear, but we can"t predict the next manifestation of this human trait.

Then there are the unknown unknowns--the stuff that can"t be forecast except as a generalization, i.e. that there are unknown unknowns that will crop up with some regularity-- a regularity we can"t forecast with any certainty.

All this should nurture a profound sense of humility in all who dare to forecast an inherently unpredictable future. While humans love a good speculative frenzy that promises unearned wealth for everyone who gets into the game, they also love the illusory certainty of comforting forecasts based on past trends.

Thus we are reassured by long-term forecasts that claim a high degree of certainty that our comfortable lifestyle and all the promises issued by governments and pension plans will come to fruition as promised without any untidy or distressing reversions, phase transitions, collapses triggered by highly unlikely events (those pesky known-unknowns) or even peskier unknown-unknowns).

We are now facing an unpredictable collision of these conflicting sources of certainty and uncertainty. On the one hand, we"re constantly assured our status quo is durably permanent, and all the lines that assure us all the promises that have been issued will be met without any sacrifices or disruptions have been extended with handy pencils and rulers.

But on the other hand, we"re also assured that a certain number of unlikely events will occur despite the low probability we calculate. We"re also assured that unknown-unknowns black swans) will crop up and surprise everyone from time to time.

Can both of these assurances be true? Can we be assured that the odds of something completely upsetting our apple cart of predictable comforts, entitlements, pensions, etc. are so low we needn"t worry about them, and also be assured that highly unlikely events and unanticipated events (black swans) will arise from time to time, threatening the comfortable certainty of all these systemic promises?

The answer is "yes and no." We can say that based on current trendlines, the future should be predictable with a high degree of certainty, but these trendlines could be completely disrupted by low-probability events and/or black swans.

The question boils down to: are "current trends" the bubble equivalents of the tulip bulb craze? Please glance at this chart of skyrocketing federal debt before answering.

In essence, while we"re being reassured that all these grandiose promises are resting on trends that are as reliably predictable as the tides, the next easily predictable crisis will very likely reveal the trends are speculative bubbles that will predictably burst in a devastating reversion. The wise approach forecasting the future with a profound humility, while the soon to be bankrupted foolish are confident in their grasp of what"s knowable, unknowable and predictable.

'Sound Money' Debate Exposes The Ignorance Of Politicians (Again)

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Proving once again that our elected representatives appear to have absolutely no clue, we turn to Democrat Idaho House Minority Leader Mat Erpelding.

The Sound Money Defense League reports:

The Dunning-Kruger effect is the idea that low-ability people tend to suffer from illusory superiority. The phenomenon, first studied by David Dunning and Justin Kruger, says that people who know the least tend to overvalue their own competence, and tend to believe that they are experiencing some sort of upper-echelon level of thinking.

While the original study was conducted in 1999, we witnessed what appeared to be the Dunning-Kruger effect in action this past Tuesday on the floor of the Idaho House of Representatives.

And while it’s only March, we also have identified the front-runner for our “Aurophobe of the Year” award.  (Aurophobia is the irrational fear of gold.)

During the March 14^th floor debate on Idaho’s House Bill 206, a measure that promotes sound money by removing Idaho income taxation from precious metals, Democrat Representative Mat Erpelding — the House Minority Leader — couldn’t help himself and had to share his two cents, even after asserting that he had no opinion on the bill (but then voted against it).

The quote itself is shockingly obtuse and ignorant:

I do have an opinion of facts and facts are somewhat important… and if we say that gold is going to protect us from inflation, I want to point out that in 1868 gold was $27 an ounce and today gold is $1,218 an ounce… so you can’t say gold is going to protect us from inflation when you have that type of a price range over the last hundred years… So i just want to point out that facts are important.

Yes, that actually happened and here’s the video to prove it:

Robots are just a catalyst shifting to new paradigm

The news, even the "fake news" and "alternative news" has been reduced to the bottom of the Maslow pyramid, personalizing things while dismantling the small amount of journalistic integrity that existed.  The only next lower step is name calling "you are stupid-head, poopy face" or throwing food.  Liberals are angry that Trump won, Trump supporters are angry that liberals are so angry, blacks are angry because one of their own is out; women are angry because a "Man" is President, what"s next?  When will protests and holidays be labelled as big "Pity Parties" where protestors gather with psychologists and beat cotton dummies with rubber bats, all while wearing protective gear, monitored by "government specialists" - I can see it now.  It"s an extention of the "cry rooms" from Universities; sections of major cities can be closed for these "necessary events" where angry people will get out their feelings in a controlled setting without damaging real property or getting themselves arrested.  You think it"s a big joke, do you - checkout these startups offering services to "break things" for a fee:  The Smash Shack;  Anger Room – Relieve Stress & Anxiety | Anger Room™ | "Nothing You Expect, Everything You Deserve"

Where is national coverage of these businesses - these guys need to get on Shark Tank there"s a national need here.  Parts of Detroit can be used for a mass destruction in controlled "riots" like they did for the Zombie apocalypse trend.

Unfortunately it seems, that"s just about all the unenlightened uneducated masses are good for, so you can"t fault the globalists too much for trying to turn them into good worker consumer zombies.  

There"s a lot happening in the "backoffice" of America, Inc. that we"re seeing the surface of the big iceberg such as the Vault7 revelations, and more goodies to come.  We"re still catching up to previous data dumps such as the CIA releasing electronic access to a huge amount of records previously not online.CIAs role in financial markets EXPOSED by documents release.

What impact all this will have is unclear - what is clear is that we"re on the precipice of a major paradigm shift, that from an "old model" to a "new model" speaking from the perspective of systems theory, which is really the best objective perspective.  Robots are simply the catalyst ushering in the paradigm shift.  The idea of "manufacturing jobs" is widely misunderstood by luddites that populate the mainstream - they will have us believe that the idea of a resurgence in US manufacturing is a bad move, i.e. we"re building the wrong economy, and reverting back to a 50s style system.  But this just shows the lack of understanding on their part, the world has changed in the last 10 years, checkout this clip from leftist Bloomberg: Trump"s Plan to Bring Back Manufacturing Isn"t Crazy - Bloomberg View

But there are plenty of other reasons to want to bring supply chains back to the U.S. High-value-added manufacturing -- robot factories pumping out goods -- creates jobs for Americans in other ways. As economist Enrico Moretti explains in his book "The New Geography of Jobs," high-tech manufacturing creates higher-paying service-sector jobs in a local area. The dollars that come into a town with a robot factory get spent on doctors and waiters and personal trainers, and the money circulates throughout the community, leaving everyone better off.

from another article:

Moretti demonstrates that there really are two Americas -- one that"s healthy, rich and growing, and a second that"s increasingly being left behind. The two nations-within-a-nation are divided not so much by region or race or religion, but by the kinds of industries they support. Those cities and towns that are home to innovative industries -- information technology, pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing and the like -- are wealthier, healthier and safer, while the places without these industries are steadily declining.

Checkout this chart "Vanishing Blue Collars":

The book fails to mention the fact that there were ALWAYS two Americas, USA was founded by a group of rich white male slaveowners who said all men are created equal.  But the demographic trend away from manual labor exploitation is exemplified well, although the point here is not about booming tech centers vs. rural economic deserts - it"s about the changing world and how robots really are replacing mundane tasks.  Those without skills in I.T. or computers will be left unemployed or on the dole chronically.  This is why - ahem - Republicans - ahem - you can never ever touch the welfare state, it"s about a class of technologically redundant workers, white or black or latino all the same.  You can"t take away food stamps, medicaid, and other programs - these people are not going to be the innovators of tomorrow, and without food they"ll simply riot and cause trouble - better keep them fat and happy and watching TV popping pills.  Seriously.  And the good news - money can easily be printed and given to them at a very low cost (about .01 per $100 electronically).    

Robots are better, robots don"t make mistakes, robots can go places man can"t go (like inside Volcanoes, deep under the sea, and so on).  Don"t forget about software robots, that we speak about when talking about trading.  Algorithmic trading is far superior to human trading - 10 years from now will anyone "trade" their own account?  Or they will just "trade" robots - buy and sell various algorithms that work well.

The point here is that what we are seeing is not a political trend at all.  The Clinton "pay for play" model of politics is outdated, they are cave-men banging there clubs and grunting around a fire.  While Trump doesn"t represent technology per se, he represents business - and as traders know, the market itself has an intelligence, maybe the markets are the first form of Aritificial Intelligence.  So what"s going on is that the demographic shift is allowing a pro-business and thus pro-technology shift which will allow business and technology to thrive.  In fact, the idea of "politics" is outdated too - why can"t all this be organized online - like the markets?  Because the 10% of the population that doesn"t have computers?  The good news is like the market, we"ve been proven, that intelligence finally wins; because what is unnatural cannot continue - if your car has no gas, you"ll stop driving.  Physics is really simple.

What"s happening is a massive paradigm shift into a new paradigm where the "old model" is being transitioned to a "new model" - this is seen in business, politics, medicine, education, construction, engineering, and basically all fields.  The CIA was a product of World War 2, as eloquently explained here on Zero Hedge by Dr. Steve Pieczenik, the CIA was a byproduct of World War 2 and was created by real spies that had a real purpose, and it served its purpose well - against a real enemy (Hitler).  (Of course, the CIA was created after the war but it was based on the spy network that fought Nazi Germany).  Dr. Pieczenik notes intelligently that the current generation of Rockefellers, and would be world dictators are not interested in world domination or one world government plans created by their parents and grandparents.  The CIA, sort of died when its founders died; and the new generation turned it into something else - instead of serving the purpose for which it was originally intended, it was used to further special interests, build the business of the military industrial complex, and most recently influence domestic political elections.  It"s just another example of this old model vs. new model paradigm shift - it"s become outdated, it should be closed.  

The idea of a "spy agency" needs to be re-evaluated in the context of modern society, where there are cameras everywhere and instantaneous global communications that are all recorded by NSA.  Maybe a new, modern agency will be a team of trained analysts and "hackers" commissioned for good purposes, such as monitoring electronic communications for crimes, terrorism, violent acts, and other behaviors to be stopped.  In any case, whatever it looks like - one thing is clear - it will be run by robots, not humans.

- Global Intel Hub

To see how robots run the world"s biggest market (FX) checkout Splitting Pennies - and get a new perspective on investing and trading.  To see another example of the "new model" vs. the "old model" - shop online, in your pajamas - don"t go to the Mall.  Shopping Malls are dangerous!

Oscars Preview

I don"t think we are just whining and complaing. I wouldn"t call Jewish Satanism successful...its crippling its host and turning it against the parasite...maybe now it appears successful, but in twenty years, the Jewish parasite may be a very unsuccesful thing. We are educating and organizing to expel the parasites, the Jewish, communist, socialist, GLBT, etc from our system so that our nation can heal and gain vitality again. Check out thezog.info and dailystormer.com and jewwatch.com

Get educated, then get involved locally (watch out for antifa!) on dailystormer.com.

The Jews do care what we think. They dedicate the ADL and SPLC and the MSM to oppose us, but we are still growing. We may not win, but we will still give the NWO filth a run for their money!!!!

The valuation of financial knowledge

How does one value financial knowledge? Finance as both a topic and industry has been holding huge secrets guarded by the most rich and powerful in the world for hundreds of generations. Why don’t they teach these secrets to the masses? It’s the same reason a magician doesn’t reveal his tricks. But just like children are fascinated with the skilled magician pulling the rabbit out of a hat, adults are fascinated with the financial wizardry of financial experts. We show you in our simple to follow introductory course that finance and investing is not magic. Just like the magician, financial experts simply are well trained, and follow a financial philosophy of their choosing (there are several) such as “Value Investing.” Due to the internet, obtaining this knowledge is possible for anyone in any place at any time. It’s not necessary to go to an expensive Business school like Harvard or Wharton anymore (although, you won’t make high level connections anywhere else) to gain financial knowledge. You can do it in the comfort of your own home.

The study of knowledge is known as Epistemology, roughly defined as:

Epistemology studies the nature of knowledge, justification, and the rationality of belief. Much of the debate in epistemology centers on four areas: (1) the philosophical analysis of the nature of knowledge and how it relates to such concepts as truth, belief, and justification, (2) various problems of skepticism, (3) the sources and scope of knowledge and justified belief, and (4) the criteria for knowledge and justification.

This definition provides a great template of how to understand what is financial knowledge and how to value it. If one knows how to take a dollar and turn it into two – this certainly is priceless. But there’s a big spectrum of financial knowledge, ranging from Wall St. genius to understanding personal finance and how to properly file taxes. The problem of the valuation of an investment strategy for example, it is binary – either it works, or it doesn’t. The difference between a 15% return and a 17% return is not statistically significant. But how to look at the mathematics of a return, and determine the difference between Bernie Madoff and George Soros? That’s priceless.

The importance is to understand the ‘gestalt’ of what markets are, how finance works, that is – practically. Any system can be analyzed and understood by looking at its components and how they behave together. The specialization of finance has confused the larger view, with experts teaching micro-subjects like how to trade Candlestick patterns, or ‘how to make money’ using these simple tools. Making money is sometimes easy – many people stumble upon good luck and money falls into their hands. Not losing money, that is very difficult – something very few rich people and businesses can achieve. Only a full understanding of how markets operate globally, will make you a great trader – as well, will protect you from losing. Not losing is the big secret to financial success. It’s why investors are so concerned about risks. If one can simply not lose, ultimately what’s left will be profits and growth. Tools such as understanding risk, and even quantifying risk (as much as possible) are priceless.

Building a financial knowledgebase is like building a house; the first step is to make a blueprint (usually by hiring an architect) and laying a strong foundation. By having a strong foundation, the building materials of your knowledge (wood, stone, clay) are not as important. With a ‘basement’ which is the modern day equivalent of a bunker, you’ll be able to withstand any tornado or storm that may rock the markets and the economy. Having a defense line, financially speaking – is the most important tactic in any personal finance strategy. For businesses too, but most business does this intuitively (not relying on a single customer or single product line). Tools like hedging, even if simple – can be extremely powerful. Preppers take things to the extreme but provide a great living example of how everyone should act regarding their financial portfolio – hope for the best and prepare for the worst. A portfolio should be like a castle – capable of withstanding any disaster, war, or siege.

It’s true that the world’s Elite engineer financial disasters like stock market crashes to seize the wealth of the growing middle class. It’s like culling the herd for fresh competition. But the good news, seeded into this system are the tools to protect you and even profit. For the first time in history, anyone can access the same tools the Elite have used for centuries to maintain their wealth and seize the wealth of others. This knowledge can also help you in your career, in your business, in your portfolio, or for your retirement.

There’s never been a better time than now to build financial knowledge for yourself. Whether you are wealthy and want to protect your wealth, or are not and want to grow your portfolio and become wealthy – a solid financial understanding of business and the markets is the first step towards achieving real financial self-actualization.

With our system as a whole, top-wards down approach, you’ll learn to understand your business better, by understanding where money comes from, how it’s exchanged, how it’s valued, loaned, securitized, packaged and repackaged. Money has become the most virulent electronic commodity in the world and is the least talked about. Learn FX, and learn how all markets work, and the foundation underpinning the global economy, at Fortress Capital Trading Academy www.fctradingacademy.com

Spring into trading special:  35% OFF your first course – use coupon code spring17 to get 35% off.

"It's Probably Nothing..."

As Donald Trump"s inauguration looms ever closer, the last few days have seen the honeymoon in markets starting to fade as the reality of economic policy uncertainty suddenly seems to matter again.

If the past 20 years of global historical data is anything to go by, that "awakening" of uncertainty is very bad news...

But, as your friendly local asset-gatherer will tell you - "it"s probably nothing" and "the market is not the economy."

Even Janet Yellen is starting to notice...

• YELLEN: IT"S IMPORTANT TO TAKE UNCERTAINTY INTO ACCOUNT