Showing posts with label Cognition. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cognition. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

These Five Cognitive Biases Hurt Investors The Most

There is no shortage of cognitive biases out there that can trip up our brains.


By the last count, Visual Capitalist"s Jeff Desjardins notes there are 188 types of these fallible mental shortcuts in existence, and they constantly impede our ability to make the best decisions about our careers, our relationships, and for building wealth over time.


BIASES THAT PLAGUE INVESTORS


In today’s infographic from StocksToTrade, we dive deeper into five of these cognitive biases – specifically the ones that really seem to throw investors and traders for a loop.


Next time you are about to make a major investing decision, make sure you double-check this list!



Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

The moves that may seem instinctual for the average investor may actually be pre-loaded with cognitive biases.


These problems can even plague the most prominent investors in the world – just look at JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon!


BIASES TO AVOID


Here are descriptions and examples of the five cognitive biases that can impact investors the most:


Anchoring Bias
The first piece of information you see or hear often ends up being an “anchor” for others that follow.


As an example, if you heard that a new stock was trading at $5.00 – that is the piece of information you may reference whenever thinking about that stock in the future. To avoid this mental mistake: analyze historical data, but don’t hold historical conclusions.


Recency Bias
Recency bias is a tendency to overvalue the latest information available.


If you heard that a CEO is resigning from a company you own shares of, your impulse may be to overvalue this recent news and sell the stock. However, you should be careful, and instead focus on long-term trends and experience to come up with a more measured course of action.


Loss Aversion Bias
No one wants to lose money, but small losses happen all the time even for the best investors – especially on paper.


Loss aversion bias is a tendency to feel the effects of these losses more than wins of equal magnitude, and it can often result in a sub-optimal shift in investing strategy. Investors that are focused only on avoiding losses will miss out on big opportunities for gains.


Confirmation Bias
Taking in information only that confirms your beliefs can be disastrous. It’s tempting, because it is satisfying to see your previous conviction in a positive light – however, it also makes it possible to miss important findings that may help to change your conviction.


Bandwagon Bias
No one wants to get left out, but being the last one to pile onto an opportunity can also be cataclysmic. If you’re going to be a bandwagon jumper, make sure you’re doing it for the right reasons.









Friday, August 25, 2017

China Launches Official Investigation Into US Intellectual Property Practices

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at


Last week, China bypassed the World Trade Organisation agreements and using an old law officially launched a probe into Americas intellectual property practices.


China"s foreign affairs minister, talking of America, stated that:





"We’ve come to the conclusion that they’re in an economic war and they’re crushing us.”



Reiterating this stance, a Chinese Communist Party spokesman went on to say:





“The economic war with America is everything and we have to be maniacally focused on that.”



 


“If we continue to lose it, we’re five years away, I think, 10 years at the most, of hitting an inflection point from which we’ll never be able to recover.”



China"s president Xi Jinping explained things further:





“It’s my duty and responsibility to protect the Chinese workers’ technology and industry from unfair and abusive actions.”  



“We will stand up to any country that unlawfully forces Chinese companies to transfer their valuable technology as a condition of market access. We will combat the counterfeiting and piracy that destroys Chinese jobs.”



Actually, none of that happened. At least not that way around.


Think about it for a minute. Put the shoe on the other foot and it seems outrageous... because, well, it is.


Ok now I"ve just three things to say about this.


1. Whenever a government - who we should remind ourselves is not a producer but rather a consumer of resources - states that they are having "their" intellectual property stolen, this should make the private individuals, corporations stakeholders, and employees of those companies stand up and say: "Whoah! Hang on a second... You don"t own that. I do. What the hell?"


It"s a strange situation where the guy who got a C average in his high school finals and never made it into university but actually runs a business dealing with China can see it makes no sense but a politician with a degree from Oxford cannot.


When some Chinese company copies the iPhone, it"s not Washington"s IP they"re stealing. It"s Apple"s. Nobody wants Washington"s IP because raw sewerage isn"t valuable. That Washington lays claim to the IP of all US businesses should scare the isht out of any US-based company.


Which brings me to my second point...


2. Imagine you"re a US company with most of your value in your business being in IP. Now, imagine further that Washington brings about a trade war. What happens next?


Well, your product has just been cut off from THE world"s fastest growing consumer market in the world, and the decision as to whether or not you would participate in that market was just taken away from you whether you like it or not.


That"s all dandy if you"re 4. Parents need to make those calls for you until you"re emancipated. But you"re a grown adult entirely capable of making that judgement call all by yourself.  


A US-led trade war vs. China would be disastrous for tech firms targeting the world"s fastest growing consumer market.


A couple of reminders are worth looking at...


When I was explaining how China is increasing political global power, I mentioned that China is:


  • Asia’s largest trading partner

  • US largest trading partner

  • Germany’s largest trading partner

  • Australia’s largest trading partner

  • Russia’s second largest trading partner (after Germany)

  • Africa’s largest trading partner

  • South America’s largest trading partner

So you see the trend is most certainly established, and this trend is like a supertanker - difficult to turn around. It"s certainly a lot smarter to get on the right side of that trend than to fight it... which is impossible.


The other thing with IP is precisely what I was rabbiting on about in when discussing the coming financial disruption. You see, governments, and the nation state in particular, survives by commandeering assets. Don"t believe me? Stop paying your property tax and find out who exactly owns your house.


This sort of control is kinda easy when the assets are Billy"s steel factory but when it"s something like Vitalik Buterin"s Ethereum platform or Google or Baidu... or any number of the thousands of companies out there where IP forms the largest value component, then things get a wee bit trickier for the nation states.


Moving IP is really very easy. It involves cancelling your gym membership, downloading software onto an encrypted drive in the cloud, and booking a one-way ticket to someplace friendlier.


3. And the third thing... Ok, I lied. I"ve only 2 things to say, though I do think there"s a single reason for all this.


The Real Reason for This Stupidity


While it could backfire more spectacularly than a 50-year old Lada, it"s probably this:


Washington"s strategy to dealing with North Korea has been attempting to get Xi to do the dirty work on that snotty kid next door who"s making them look impotent. It"s silly as I mentioned last week when I explained how brain dead sanctions on young Kim really are, which is all the more reason why politicians will pursue it.


Let me make a suggestion, because let"s face it, I"m not here to do anything other than figure this stuff out and see where and why capital will flow in any particular direction.


Governments, most of them being more broke than Borris Becker after Forbes & Manhattan screwed him over, are coming for our assets. The toughest assets to actually seize are those that live in the "digital world"... which is to say their value is more often than not in intellectual property and as such they can "live" pretty much anywhere.


The Best Investment Tip You"ll Read All Year


If you"ve a business built on IP, then may I suggest that looking NOW, ahead of trouble, for the best domicile could well provide you with the best ROI you"ll ever get.


And I won"t charge you a cent for the advice, though you can send donations to Bitcoin Address: 1LNjVKrv8pT1n5SZxkhNpPN9JPWxMwnHmm


Seriously, though remember Zimbabwe, which I spoke about recently? Well, after Mugabe seized all the fixed assets, they found that without the intellect available (it"d fled) those assets became worthless. And while that"s the case the intellect has moved on. It now provides value in other countries, countries that are more receptive to value.


Question


Wow Poll 23 Aug 2017


Cast your vote here and also see what others think holds more value


- Chris


"If protection of intellectual property begins to disappear, creative companies will disappear or never get started." — Steve Jobs


--------------------------------------


Liked this article? Then you"ll probably like my other missives on


this topic as well. Go here to access them (free, of course).


--------------------------------------

Sunday, August 20, 2017

Air Pollution May be to Blame for 20% of Dementia Cases

A new study in Translational Psychiatry suggests that women who are exposed to air heavily polluted by vehicle exhaust and other sources of fine particulate matter have a significantly higher risk of developing dementia.



For the new study, researchers tracked the cognitive health of 3,647 women ages 65-79 for 10 years. All of the women were dementia-free at the beginning of the study. As part of the Women’s Health Initiative Memory Study (WHIMS), researchers assessed the participants’ cognitive function annually.

The researchers used EPA data to estimate the women’s daily particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) where they lived. PM2.5 are fine particles that are up to 2.5 micrometers in diameter. They are made up of solid and liquid droplets which are emitted from power plants and motor vehicles, and other sources of combustion.



Read: Toxic Nanoparticle Air Pollution Found in Human Brain Tissue


The miniscule size of PM2.5 makes them easy to inhale, and inhalation of the particles can increase the risk of heart disease, asthma, reduced lung function, and other health problems.


High Levels of Pollution, High Levels of Risk


The team found that women who live in areas exposed to high PM2.5 levels had an 81% increased risk of global cognitive decline and a 92% increased risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias compared to women who live in areas with low PM2.5 levels.


Researchers also looked at the brain tissue of lab mice and discovered amyloid beta protein clumps – the hallmark signature of Alzheimer’s disease – and the die-off of cells in the brain’s hippocampus, where memories are formed.


Air pollution was also shown to affect a woman’s cognitive abilities even more dramatically if she carries APOE-e4, a gene variant which puts them at higher risk for Alzheimer’s disease.


Using air pollution standards set by the EPA, researchers found major differences on all those measures between those who breathed clean air and those exposed to pollution levels deemed unsafe.


In the lab mice, breathing air collected over the 10 Freeway in Los Angeles led to denser brain concentrations of amyloid protein which were more likely to form dangerous clumps than breathing air that met EPA standards pre-2012.


Read: Toxic Air Affects 90% of World’s Population




Are we seeing this in real-time in China?


Approximately 54% of the world’s population lived in urban areas as of 2014, according to the United Nations. In China, where air pollution is extreme, more than 55% of the population live in the city.


Interestingly, a 2013 study published in the Lancet showed that the number of people in that country with Alzheimer’s disease soared from 3.7 million in 1990 to 9.2 million in 2010. These are eclipsing figures from the 2012 World Alzheimer’s Reportwhich predicted an estimated 5.4 million dementia cases in China in 2010.


Potential Legal Ramifications?


The authors of the study, geriatric and environmental health specialists at USC, estimate that prior to the 2012 air pollution standards set by the EPA, about 21% of new cases of dementia and of accelerated cognitive decline could likely have been the result of exposure to air pollution.


Here’s where things get tricky.


When the EPA devises its pollution standards, the agency is required to consider the impact they will have on the health of “vulnerable populations.” The EPA is also tasked with using its regulatory authority to protect those populations. The standards set in 2012 clearly do not adequately protect women (and mice) who are genetically predisposed to developing Alzheimer’s disease.



Though air pollution has been decreasing since 2012, Dr. Jiu-Chiuan Chen, an environmental health specialist at USC’s Keck School of Medicine and the study’s senior author, said it’s not clear that even current standards are safe for aging brains, or for brains that are genetically vulnerable to Alzheimer’s.


It would behoove the Trump administration to look over this latest study, as President Trump has indicated that it will either trash or overhaul Obama administration regulations that tightened emissions from power plants and established tougher fuel efficiency standards for cars in an effort to fight climate change and cut air pollution.


Chen said:



“If people in the current administration are trying to reduce the cost of treating diseases, including dementia, then they should know that relaxing the Clean Air Act regulations will do the opposite.”



Sources:


[1] Medical News Today


[2] Los Angeles Times



Storable Food





About Julie Fidler:
Author Image
Julie Fidler is a freelance writer, legal blogger, and the author of Adventures in Holy Matrimony: For Better or the Absolute Worst. She lives in Pennsylvania with her husband and two ridiculously spoiled cats. She occasionally pontificates on her blog.

Friday, July 28, 2017

Have You a Positive Personal Practice? (Part Two)

Have You a Positive Personal Practice? (Part Two)


By


Cognitive Dissonance




My apologies for how tardy Part Two of this article is. It is now mid summer and the garden has begun to produce prolifically. Which means we have begun to can almost as prolifically. Plus I have taken on several outside jobs for friends of several week"s duration to put some fiat in the wallet and this has taken some precedence over my writing.


This theme (Positive Personal Practice) has expanded into at least three parts and maybe more. I don"t plan out my writing, but rather let it flow where it wants to go. Sometimes it goes further than I expect and this is one of those cases.


In addition, this iteration appears a bit more lumpy than usual. I blame it on Mrs. Cog, who introduced me to lumps in my mashed potatoes. After great protestation on my part (mashed potatoes are by definition mashed) to my surprise I found I like them. My writing seems to like them too.


That"s my story and I"m sticking to it.  ;-)


Cognitive Dissonance



The first step to returning to health is to acknowledge you are sick. The second step to getting better is to treat the cause and not the symptoms. Only the insane or someone who doesn’t actually recognize their illness or symptoms as a problem might argue with the above supposition.


In other words, if something is perceived as normal and natural, there ain’t nothing to fix. And mama always told me not to fix what ain’t broken. Perfectly reasonable, wouldn’t you say?


Of course, if everyone is ill (or insane) than ‘normal’ is simply what the majority are doing at that precise moment in space and time. On the flip side, abnormal would be defined as anything the collective hive mind believes is contrary to normal. This is the ultimate in a positive feedback loop, a self reinforcing pattern that only grows stronger with each successive loop until the moment of self destruction arrives.


While rarely expressed by individuals in this precise manner, essentially what many people think and say about their lot in life is that they’re doing pretty well, even very good, in adjusting to a difficult and slightly crazy world they were born into when measured against the symbols of success promoted by ‘society’.


Of course, it is everyone else who is crazy and definitely not the speaker (or thinker) in question.


Setting aside the question of how society goes about measuring its health, I am constantly reminded of a well known quote by Krishnamurti that goes something like this.


“It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.”


Take a long hard look around you, at our so-called society and its inhabitants (that would be you and I) and tell me we are healthy in every sense of the word.


I dare you. I double dare you. ;-)


If you answered yes, that society is healthy, then I strongly suggest you are basing your assessment solely upon the fact society reflects back to you what you have been taught are values society prizes as a measure of health and happiness.


Keep in mind we all alter our own perceived personal reality to fit our worldview and mindset. We seek out information that confirms our point of view and we reject just about anything that refutes our preconceived notions. Also note this exercise in self deception is very fluid and flexible and extremely adaptable to changing conditions in real time and on the fly.


How else could we justify and rationalize all the murder, mayhem and injustice “We the People”, through our ‘leaders’, inflict upon others…including our neighbors and ourselves.


On the other hand, if you said no and agree that society is unhealthy, do you include yourself in this assessment? If not, why not?


Drop an otherwise healthy Goldfish into a bowl of dirty filthy water, wait 48 hours and then rationally and logically explain to me how the fish remains healthy while totally immersed within that environment.


There is an old adage among natural healers that postulates that other than superficially (meaning minor ailments) the healer can only help those who truly wish to help themselves. One cannot force health upon anyone just as one cannot force unhealthy upon anyone. Free will is required as an integral component of the equation.


Fair warning to the casual reader; trigger words are most definitely being used in this piece. Please strap on your helmet and fasten your seat belt because the going most definitely will get rough.


/sarcasm


What many miss when discussing this subject is ‘belief’ is an exercise in free will. Belief supplants doubt and promotes either active or passive ‘action’, also known as free will. Belief comes about either naturally via personal experience (aka learning) and wisdom or unnaturally via (often external) manipulation and coercion. 


Please understand exercising ‘free will’ doesn’t necessarily mean making a decision to implement your will. Passive acceptance, as well as the belief you have no choice, is an exercise of your free will by omission rather than commission. Not making a decision is, in and of itself, a decision. The same applies to being ‘forced’ to make a decision, regardless of whether that force is ‘real’ or perceived.


We can always say no, even when a gun is pointed to our head. This is a simple fact that will no doubt infuriate some readers who will argue that life is paramount and anything agreed to in order to prolong life is reasonable and not necessarily via ‘free will’.


I would counter one is arguing about the consequences of the decision to justify making the decision. I do not dispute there are potentially severe, even mortal, consequences, only that ultimately the person makes a conscious decision to comply and that is the act of free will. A decision not to comply is also an act of free will.


While freely and willingly tendering our ‘free will’ is of immensely greater value to the recipient, since the rules of the game require consent, by hook or by crook consent will be obtained. And by ‘game’ I am speaking about so much more than simply systems of money and social organization.



Dominoes


You don"t really think society is organized to benefit the individual.....do you?



OK, so by now either you have abandoned reading (thus I am no longer talking to you) or you still retain enough curiosity to continue on down the rabbit hole.


Or possibly you have been triggered to such an extent you have skipped down to the comment section and are furiously typing a response to refute my utter nonsense and ridiculous poppycock. There is a reason I selected Cognitive Dissonance as the name of my online presence and you just confirmed its effectiveness. 


/humor


Let us turn our attention now to the cause of the problem rather than the symptoms. It is sometimes extremely difficult discussing certain subjects with otherwise intelligent and thoughtful people simply because their cultural conditioning precludes even considering such things…or at best engaging in nothing more than a superficial conversation about the subject.


While the western world may be quite diverse with regard to race, ethnic background, religion, governmental organization and so on, even though many may hold divergent opinions only discussed among like minded cohorts, to discuss these subjects in public is practically verboten. You just don’t go there.


I consider this phenomenon not just ‘conditioning’, but conditioning of the Imperial kind. Empires ‘think’ a certain way and are terribly self centered and narcissistic, at least during the late stages of Imperial expansion and population subjugation. And I’m not speaking solely about its leadership, but its captive ‘citizens’ as well.


While I expect my characterization to be vehemently rejected by those of the Imperial mindset (or matter-of-factually agreed with as just the way it is) the Imperial mindset is quite similar to that held by the high school head jock or big-man-on-campus as he troves the halls looking for victims to terrorize.


However, the jock doesn’t frame his behavior as terrorism per se, but rather as actions befitting someone who perceives himself as sitting at the top of the human food chain…if only on a local level. Basically he does what he wants because he can do what he wants. Ego and self will have run riot.


While endless argument back and forth about my stated supposition regarding Empire can be had for the asking, I don’t wish to engage in such senseless debate. Regardless of what America once was, it is now little more than an overly muscled bully walking the halls looking for anyone to pick a fight with. And as is the case with all bullies, this behavior springs from a deep seated inferiority complex combined with an aging Empire who hears the clock ticking and the walls closing in.


Like a cornered wild animal, this is when Empires are most dangerous.


What interests me more is not the death throes of a dying Empire, but rather the mindset of average Jane and Joe from being immersed within the Imperial conditioning from birth. While it is pretty common these days for people from all walks of life to express concern with the direction of the country/leadership etc, rarely do I hear, see or read much discussion on the state of the people within the crumbling Empire other than passing reference to degrading (financial, physical etc) conditions mostly among the ‘middle class’.


There is plenty of ink spilled on the state of ‘other’ people in the country. But of course the author or interviewee isn’t affected by these issues since they are above the fray and immune from the degradation because they are aware of it.


To believe one is immune from contagion simply because one is aware there is a contagion is nonsensical and demonstrates little more than magical thinking.


Cultures more rooted to the Earth and to the Self tend to recognize the white man as seriously ill and even insane. And I’m not just talking about North American natives, but indigenous cultures from every continent on Earth.


And the term ‘white man’ should not be interpreted literally, at least no longer, since the dis-ease permeates all of the so-called Western Civilization. Worse, it is presently infiltrating the Eastern cultures as well as those in the southern hemisphere. In fact, disease may not be the proper term here since this madness is a feature and not a bug of the culture.


Ancient history, much of which has been actively suppressed, altered or simply wiped clean, indicates that man was not always insane. The study of comparative mythology/history drawn from nearly all ancient cultures seems to indicate a turning point, the point of infection one could say, right about when ‘official’ history informs us man became sophisticated enough to grow his own food and settle down into a collaborative society.


Personally I think the Empire’s officially sanctioned history lessons are little more than overall controlling memes along the lines of Nineteen Eight-Four’s “We’ve always been at war with Eastasia.” A soul lost and disconnected from its ‘self’ seeks guidance from external sources since it no longer comprehends that all ‘knowing’ springs from within.


But why would controlling entities wish to alter what is known about the distant and recent past? The answer is surprisingly simple and amazingly effective. So much of our present day perspective, our worldview and mind set, is based upon what we believe is our past, both individually and as a collective society.


If there is one overriding theme presented over and over again in the history books, particularly modern history, both subtly and with overt declarations, it is that “We the Humans” are steadily progressing physically, mentally, medically, socially, technologically, politically and spiritually.


Nearly every succeeding generation over the last several hundreds of years has felt they were smarter, more technologically adept and clearly superior to the generation before. This has enabled all manner of abuse to be heaped upon the population in the name of forward progress and innovation.


If improving standards of living is the primary measure of progress, then it is reasonable to think we have progressed radically. But what exactly is an improved standard of living if you are being bombed back into the Stone Age just so your neighbor can maintain or accelerate theirs? Or poisoned by manufactured foods and pharmaceuticals? The question actually applies to those on both sides of this murderous activity.


This is forward progress?



Truthful Lies


Imperial Truth......full of lies.



What if it is all a carefully choreographed and cultivated lie designed to hide the fact we have actually been regressing over the last five or ten thousand years? How would you feel about your present situation and the conditions under which you live if you knew people ten thousand years ago lived to be 400 years old, had mastered human metaphysical technologies we can’t even begin to comprehend, let along duplicate, and lived in relative peace and harmony with nature and each other?


I didn’t say what if this were possible, but what if you knew it to be true the same way you know others historical facts are ‘true’ simply because they are declared truth by historians and the cultural authorities?


A person living today cannot imagine surviving, let along thriving, without immediate access to health and dental care on demand. Life is tough on flesh and bone we are told. Modern conveniences command compromise, at least until the technology advances enough so our medicines and machines no longer maim and kill us.


And we just assume this is progress, that the only way forward is the way we presently travel. For example, once we could only travel at best a few miles by foot, then 30 miles a day on horseback, then 100 miles a day via stagecoach, then 400 miles by train and now thousands of miles by plane. How could this be construed as anything but a good thing, of massive progress on a grand scale?


So while our technology is making our lives ‘better’, that same technology seems to make us sicker emotionally, mentally and spiritually. We are steadily moving away from a spiritual grounding and a centered, mostly self sufficient lifestyle, and into living in a constant state of physical and psychological stress in every way possible.  


While there is no doubt some people appear to flourish under such conditions, I can only emphasize the word ‘appear’.  An incandescent light bulb of 60 watts may appear much brighter (therefore ‘better’) when driven at a higher wattage. But exactly what is the cost for such abusive behavior? Just because I have adapted well to a sick society doesn’t mean I’m in good health.


Mrs. Cog and I traveled to Northern Virginia a few weeks back for an overnight stay in order to take care of some personal business. Quite frankly we were a bit shocked how dysfunctional and downright miserable nearly everyone seemed. Casual smiles were not only far and few between, but people were rude and unfriendly and the prevailing energy was terrible.


According to Forbes, five of the ten richest counties in America are clustered around Washington DC, with the three richest counties located in Northern VA where we visited and stayed overnight. By this measure alone we were smack dab in the middle of modern nirvana.


And yet from our perspective, based solely upon people’s physical appearance and emotional demeanor, there were not a lot of happy campers in nirvana.


Collaborative effort is supposed to yield a sum greater than the total returned by its individual components. This is the concept behind the term ‘synergy’. If a society drains its inhabitants at a rate faster than it is replenished by the individuals, what exactly is the purpose of the society other than to be a corral for the chattel?


When the sum total returned is less than the sum total contributed, society becomes a Vampire Squid draining the life from its host on an exponential basis.


In order to prevent the host from expelling the parasite, the blood sucker must give something back to the host in order to create the appearance of a mutually beneficial relationship. Failing that, it must drug the host into submission, or at least into such a failed state of health (defined as much more than physical) the host is powerless to do much more than exist solely to feed the vampire squid.


Sound familiar?


Condition a person to need something, then fill that craving but never sate it (an addiction can never be more than temporarily sated) and you have the recipe for near total control over that person. Condition a society and the results are the same. Drug dealers, pimps, addicts, governments and central banks know a little about this subject if you have any questions.


So if you suspect the world, or at least the western world is mad as a hatter, and if you think you might be insane as well since it’s nearly impossible to stay clean in a mud pile, what are you to do?


Well, for one, stop doing what you are doing now. Einstein had something to say about doing the same thing and expecting different results. Just because we are aware of the insane asylum doesn’t mean our limited awareness bestows upon us the magical ability to suddenly become sane simply because we see the insanity.


Knowledge doesn’t automatically lead to changes in our thinking and behavior. In fact, quite often knowledge is an impediment because we use it to rationalize our inaction. Frequently we ‘know’ what to do and don’t act on it. Our ‘knowing’ often presents as a gut feeling or intuition, something the Imperial culture has taught us to disregard.


We are caught in a cycle of destructive reasoning and behavior, most which are believed to be pleasurable, wholesome and therapeutic because our culture tells us this. Our actions (or inaction) are both conditioned into us from birth and/or they are imposed upon us as incremental changes springing naturally from the hive mind.


You know, like Pet Rocks, a completely natural consumer product that springs from our innate desire to take common rocks into our household as pets. 



Pet Rock


These can still be bought on eBay. Hurry, quantities are limited.



Here is the intellectual problem we face. If we are all insane, how do we recognize our insanity and what do we do to become sane. It’s sort of like asking how to stay clean while in the mud pile.


It’s impossible, at least if we only pursue the intellectual route.


While I readily acknowledge the presence of Buddhist monks living, working and playing in the middle of New York City, they have decades of rigorous training supporting their sanity while walking within the insanity. To think an untrained and still thoroughly conditioned mind and spirit can simply flip a switch and be sane is the ultimate in denial.  


Ideally we should withdraw from areas of the most intense madness and seek shelter among those who are less infected. Quite frankly this is difficult for those addicted to all the pleasures and vices of sin city. My withdrawal process was a step by step relocation, first physically to a more distant suburb that still remained a community of slightly less insane people rather than a teaming mass of mad humans. The move further away to the mountain came later.


But even being further away from the center of the infection, I still faced the conundrum of carrying with me the Imperial conditioning, the worldview and mindset of the Empire. This, by the way, is why geographic cures rarely work for people with (or recovering from) drug and alcohol addiction. While the physical location may change, the corrupted mind remains the same.


This also applies to people who decide to move to an isolated place (often cutting the cord by going off grid) and deprive themselves of all the reinforcing distractions under of guise of becoming self sufficient. While certainly a noble endeavor, written word and even word of mouth simply doesn’t prepare the average person for the grueling physical and emotional labor they are subjecting themselves to.


The net result is many (but not all) fail to break free and wind up returning to the Empire’s fold with hat in hand and most likely worse off for their effort. Many flew the coop in the first place in a semi panic after waking to find they have been sleeping with the beast, a maniacal mass murderer of untold depravity. Nearly all speak of feeling they have been accessories by ignorant complicity.


The bottom line is that living with, and within, the beast is draining emotionally, physically, mentally and, most importantly, spiritually. And I am specifically NOT speaking of spirituality in a traditional religious sense.    


I shall continue exploring this thought process in Part 3.


07-28-2017


Cognitive Dissonance



Physical appearance is only a small part of what encompasses "healthy". The Imperial mindset tries to convince you otherwise.


Eyes

Wednesday, July 5, 2017

The Cannibal Warlords of Liberia and The Death of Nazi Germany

Every time, I look around this place
I see them screams but I hear no sound
And the terrible things happen down the road
To somebody else that I don"t even know


Nothing bad ever happens to me
Nothing bad ever happens to me
Nothing bad ever happens to me
Nothing bad ever happens to me


-Oingo Boingo


Ain"t normalcy bias swell?





The normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster and its possible effects, because it causes people to have a bias to believe that things will always function the way things normally function. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare and, on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations.



The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since one has never personally experienced a disaster, one never will. It can result in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. They also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation. Normalcy bias is essentially a "desire for the status quo."



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias




Are you having a hard time waking up some family or friends, or even yourself, to the possibility that you may someday want to get the fuck out of Dodge City?  Are you for some reason unable to travel to the formerly beautiful Damascus, Syria, or Caracas, Venezuela, to see first-hand what it looks like when SHTF?


I might be able to help.    


The next time you have an hour to kill, I highly recommend you use the time to watch the 2009 Vice documentary, The Cannibal Warlords of Liberia.  




You will meet the amazing local priest, General Butt Naked...




You will learn what to expect from the local youth group in a societal collapse...




You will see the how government authority reacts to collapse...




Then, follow it up by the reading the excellent book, Hellstorm: The Death of Nazi Germany, 1944-1947, by Thomas Goodrich.  Although I highly recommend reading the book, there is also apparently a related 90 minute documentary video available online, Hellstorm : The Genocide of Germany by the Common Enemy.





You will learn of the massive amount of state-sponsored rape and murder of German women in the final days of World War 2.  




You will learn what amount of mercy to expect from governments in such situations...




If you decide that you want to put together a plan and some resources to bravely run away if the SHTF, then please consider starting with these three ZeroHedge articles.




Peace, liberty, prosperity,


h_h

Thursday, May 18, 2017

Chart Of The Day - It 'Is' Different This Time

I might not wear 3x shorts but I did hear that Amy Schumer"s comedy routine"s got no demand.
Should be paired with Lena Dunham
I"m sure the ratings would be something else.


Why else has Zog given us life, other than to enjoy Amy Schumer.


I"m wondering if there"re gonna be any TV viewers going forth other than for sports, old movies and great series like the Young Pope, Sherlock, Sopranos and the like.
Absolutely cannot turn on the media without the 24/7/365 rantings


Drain the Media.
Only now are we getting a real glimpse of the power and control behind the scenes.
There"re no more any independent news media organizations than there are 2 separate main political parties.


Think about that.
There"s the real terrorism.

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

"You Are Here"

In case you wondered...


You Are Here... Valuation?




And here... Sentiment?




And here... Cognitive Dissonance?




And finally... no it"s not a "new economy" or "different this time"...




So as a reminder, Peak Valuations and Trough Labor Force Participation...



"Probably Nothing"

Sunday, February 26, 2017

Oscars Preview

I don"t think we are just whining and complaing. I wouldn"t call Jewish Satanism successful...its crippling its host and turning it against the parasite...maybe now it appears successful, but in twenty years, the Jewish parasite may be a very unsuccesful thing. We are educating and organizing to expel the parasites, the Jewish, communist, socialist, GLBT, etc from our system so that our nation can heal and gain vitality again. Check out thezog.info and dailystormer.com and jewwatch.com


Get educated, then get involved locally (watch out for antifa!) on dailystormer.com.


The Jews do care what we think. They dedicate the ADL and SPLC and the MSM to oppose us, but we are still growing. We may not win, but we will still give the NWO filth a run for their money!!!!

Trumpocalypse: Liberal Ivory Tower of Academia collapsing

Universities in America have typically been dominated by a liberal
bias.  Why is that?  Because, working for a University is sort of
like working for the Government.  There is reason for the expression,
those who can"t do - teach.  Grow a 2nd brain - understand why by reading THIS BOOK. 


The mindset of employees at such insitutions is quite different
than one might think.  We"re not going to name any names in this essay; this
isn"t about a person or individual University.  It"s about the
intellectual class, really the only public intellectual class in America with
any respect; the Ivory Tower.  If you haven"t heard this expression
before, it refers to the high brow raised lip attitude class of University
Professors and their associates.  They have influence on every aspect of
society.  They are like Adam Smith"s hidden hand - the subtle advisors who
are secretly directing politics, big business, technology, and culture.
 Fortunately however, they don"t have any power, and don"t really control
society, like the Illuminati do.  Their influence however should be noted;
they"ve influenced Presidents of the United States, Bankers, the Media (most
notably) and literally every aspect of human life in America.  I mean, who
doesn"t trust and respect a University Professor?  They know what they"re
doing - right?


From Google:





a state of privileged seclusion or separation from the facts and
practicalities of the real world.


"the ivory tower of academia"



Now to be fair, not all University Professors are alike, we shant
"profile" them, as they profile individuals who have ideas they don"t like.
 There"s do-ers out there, especially around Silicon Valley where many
have left their Ivory Tower positions to join startups or start them
themselves.  But the Ivory Tower class remains; and it remained until the
Trump victory in November - a major influence on society and hallmark of
American culture.  But all that"s been shattered.  Their hidden
influence on the media, should be noted by readers of Zero Hedge and other
sites, people "in the know".  Because they shape public opinion, possibly
more than the CIA with all of it"s domestic mind-control operations.
 Venues like "NPR" and even "The Simpsons" are
carefully crafted with leftist messages, agendas for open expansion of foreign
affairs, expansion of government, anti-male value systems, and other
"progressive" ideas are implanted like seeds, waiting to grow like weeds when
the next rain comes.  


Here"s one example, how Academia helped the Media with their war
against Trump.  Have you been hearing recently "Studies show
that.." .. "Obamacare is more popular after the election"
 or some such nonsense.  Who are they polling?  They claim their
polls aren"t biased, they are scientific.  But these are the polls and methods that had
Trump losing by a landslide!


What does this all mean?  We"re experiencing a
major paradigm shift
, (this is an Ivory Tower word, from Thomas Kuhn"s "The
Structure of Scientific Revolutions - a must read for investors).


As a bright example take
a look at what Brian Nosek is doing
 to crack the glass bubble surrounding the Ivory Tower:





Sometimes it seems surprising that science functions at all. In
2005, medical science was shaken by a paper with the provocative title “
Why most published research findings are false.” Written by John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine at Stanford
University, it didn’t actually show that any particular result was wrong.
Instead, it showed that the
 statistics of reported positive
findings was not consistent with how often one should expect to find them.
 As Ioannidis concluded more recently, “many published research findings are false or exaggerated, and an
estimated 85 percent of research resources are wasted.”
  It’s likely that
some researchers are consciously cherry-picking data to get their work
published. And some of the problems surely lie with journal publication
policies. But the problems of false findings often begin with researchers
unwittingly fooling themselves: they fall prey to cognitive biases, common
modes of thinking that lure us toward wrong but convenient or attractive
conclusions. “Seeing the reproducibility rates in psychology and other
empirical science, we can safely say that something is not working out the way
it should,” says Susann Fiedler, a behavioral economist at the Max Planck
Institute for Research on Collective Goods in Bonn, Germany. “Cognitive biases
might be one reason for that.”  
Psychologist
Brian Nosek of the University of Virginia says that the most common and
problematic bias in science is “motivated reasoning”: We interpret observations
to fit a particular idea. Psychologists have shown that “most of our reasoning
is in fact rationalization,” he says. In other words, we have already made the
decision about what to do or to think, and our “explanation” of our reasoning
is really a justification for doing what we wanted to do—or to believe—anyway.
Science is of course meant to be more objective and skeptical than everyday
thought—but how much is it, really?  
I
was aware of biases in humans at large, but when I first “learned” that they
also apply to scientists, I was somewhat amazed, even though it is so obvious.  
Whereas the falsification model of the
scientific method championed by philosopher Karl Popper posits that the
scientist looks for ways to test and falsify her theories—to ask “How am I
wrong?”—Nosek says that scientists usually ask instead “How am I right?” (or
equally, to ask “How are you wrong?”). When facts come up that suggest we
might, in fact, not be right after all, we are inclined to dismiss them as
irrelevant, if not indeed mistaken. The now infamous “cold fusion” episode in
the late 1980s, instigated by the electrochemists Martin Fleischmann and
Stanley Pons, was full of such ad hoc brush-offs. For example, when it was
pointed out to Fleischmann and Pons that their energy spectrum of the gamma
rays from their claimed fusion reaction had its spike at the wrong energy, they
simply moved it, muttering something ambiguous about calibration.



The implications for politics and the broader economy are huge.
 Studies, focus groups, corporate funded research retreats, are one of the
Establishment"s, and the Ivory Tower"s biggest tools.  The election was a
crack in the dam - it"s a proof that you can"t manipulate public opinion to fit
your own.  But it"s far from the only crack, just the most obvious one.  What"s
happening is a major system-wide Ivory Tower Psychosis, the most basic form of
mental illness - but it"s happening at a class level, as a group.
 Emotionally injured leftists are fleeing to Canada, or promoting
secession for California (which is really a good idea by itself, who needs a
Federal government).  Reality is crashing down on them, as it doesn"t fit
with "their reality" - but "their reality" was artificially created for
decades, depending on how you calculate.. For decades, Establishment leaders like
George Bush created their own reality with their power, and even called it the "Reality Based Community" that is, people who live in
the bubble of the Ivory Tower:





The aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the
reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe
that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality."
... "That"s not the way the world really works anymore," he
continued. "We"re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own
reality. And while you"re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we"ll
act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that"s
how things will sort out. We"re history"s actors…and you, all of you, will be
left to just study what we do."



It"s like the Media"s recent admission that it"s the media"s job
to control what people think.  
Well, not exactly.


The Ivory Tower Bubble has popped; and we"re seeing the casualties
on a daily basis.  It"s certainly not the last establishment-class that
we"re going to see crack from the pressure of reality.


To
learn how the Elite manipulate the news which in turn manipulates markets,
checkout Splitting Pennies - Understanding Forex for only $6.11 on Amazon, also
now available on your iPhone via Smashwords.



Zero Hedge readers get 35% off Fortress Capital Trading Academy type
coupon code spring17 when checking out, at www.fctradingacademy.com learn how
the "real" world works.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

The Epidemic Of Bad Ideas

Submitted by David Galland via GarretGalland.com,


Our education begins within a few minutes of arriving on planet Earth. That’s when we begin to learn that crying and carrying on is rewarded with coddling and nourishment.


That particular lesson stays with us throughout our lives, more so with some people than others. I especially love watching red-faced yuppies trying to argue canceled airline flights back into service.


We also are educated by the physical world. Running barefoot and stepping on a tack/bee/piece of glass/thorn/etc. teaches us the importance of protective garments. As does our first time staying out too long shirtless in the sun.


Of course, our family members and friends also play an important role, teaching us the difference between wrong and right. Of course, as often as not, those concepts are subjective. Is it really “wrong” to question your elders? Or “right” to fall to your knees in prayer to an invisible superhuman at bedtime?


Maybe, maybe not. But not being privy to the hard data proving either point in our formative years, we are expected to take these various ideas on board without questioning. And, for the most part, we do.


It is also clear that having a poor role model can have long-term deleterious results. A single mother on welfare who is addicted to crack is unlikely to instill in Junior a strong moral compass or the work ethic needed to get ahead in a competitive world.


Regardless, while still in the proverbial short pants, we are one day bundled up and sent off to begin our formal education. This is where things get interesting.


Moving along, it seems appropriate to drop the virtual needle on Pink Floyd’s classic, Another Brick in the Wall.


Bricks in the Wall


Once our parents hand the keys to our brains to professional teachers, any number of factors come to play in our education.


For starters, every graduating class of future teachers contains those who sit in the front and those who hide at the back. If you’re lucky, your formative years won’t be shaped by a guy with “Dopey” as a college nickname.


And that’s not the worst roll of the dice. In my early schooling, I had a perennially pissed-off teacher by the name of Mr. Hirata. That I still remember his name is the direct result of his pulling a handful of my hair out by the roots in front of the class. My crime? Tossing a small glob of rice at another student during lunch break.


Likewise, in the education of my own children, there was an intensely passive-aggressive female teacher (at least I think she was female) who clearly disliked boys. Not the best setting for my son, and another brick in the wall that ultimately led my wife and me to homeschool the kids.


But stupidity, an excess of emotions, or gender bias are not the worst traits an educator might possess. While those may affect a subset of the student body, leaving them with a poor opinion of their educational experience, the real threat comes from bad ideas accepted by academics as good ideas.


I subscribe to the theory that ideas are like living viruses: a strong idea, once released into the ether, will take hold and gain currency. The stronger the idea, the more likely it is to spread.


Unfortunately, even terrible ideas can spread virulently. The classic of the genre being Karl Marx’s “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.”


That particular idea has literally cost millions of lives. Incredibly, despite having been proven false time and again since its first utterance, it continues to spread.


Violence as Policy and Other Insanities


Throughout history, bad ideas such as those espoused by Marx have taken hold in the public arena and become institutionalized. This despite the inherent violence required by a system where individuals are forced to be subservient to the state.


The iconic socialist revolutionary, Che Guevara, made the case that in a true socialist revolution, large swaths of the population had to die.


“Is it possible or not, given the present conditions in [the Americas] to achieve socialist power by peaceful means? We emphatically answer that, in the great majority of cases, this is not possible. The most that could be achieved would be the formal takeover of the bourgeois superstructure of power and the transition to socialism of that government that, under the established bourgeois legal system, having achieved formal power will still have to wage a very violent struggle against all who attempt, in one way or another, to check its progress toward new social structures.”  


Che Guevara, Tactics and Strategy of the Latin American Revolution, 1962


You may recognize that doctrine being applied eight years after it was written in Pol Pot’s regime. More than 20% of the population died horribly in the reeducation camps where they were sent to learn how to think correctly. Or die. Actually, mainly die.


If mass murder as policy isn’t about as bad an idea as ever stalked the land, I don’t know what is. Yet, there is still a large demand among the clamoring masses for T-shirts and posters emblazoned with Che’s beret-bedecked cabeza. You know, because he’s sooo cool.


But I drift.


The point I am laboring toward is that once bad ideas infest the educational system, they invariably jump the intellectual barriers and end up in the political system.


It is thus that the low-information processors have so tightly embraced the Chicken Little idea that the sky is falling due to the degradation of the environment, and that the governments of the world have responded by spending hundreds of billions of dollars fighting a fiction.


This despite all the flashing fluorescent signs that the idea holds no water. If it did, why the pivot from “global warming” to the catch-all broader notion of “climate change”? And why is there a steadfast refusal by leading climate alarmists to publicly debate scientists who dispute the theory?


But that is just one small example of a long list of bad ideas that have crossed the blood-brain barrier.


Here’s another. Not all that long ago, some bright light decided that voluntarism should be injected into the schools. For example, making it a class project to read to old folks or play with stray dogs down at the local animal shelter. Harmless enough activities designed to “teach” the young to be more civic-minded. Well, that idea has morphed from a one-off activity to being mandatory for graduation.


And rather than providing the simple lesson that people can do a bit of good in their local community by volunteering, it has become indoctrination to advance Marx’s mantra.


We know a nice enough family back in the States that can never just go on vacation. Rather, they feel compelled to head off to some backwater to do good works, paying for their “holidays” with donations dunned from friends and family members.


The Epidemic of Bad Ideas


Slapping together an abbreviated list of the bad ideas now sweeping aside intelligent thought across the land—both in the US and in most countries where people have too much time on their hands, we come up with:


  • Mother Earth Is Dying. What a dismal and stupid perspective. And doubly stupid because the same morose idea has infested the human imagination time and time again over the millennia. In the past, Gaia’s purported assassins have taken the form of overpopulation, a new ice age, air pollution, swine flu, holes in ozone layers, dying bees, or whatever the hell.

    Speaking as someone who has visited all points of the compass on planet Earth, if there’s a problem humanity faces, it is underpopulation. Case in point, my partner Olivier Garret’s sainted mother lives in the countryside about 20 minutes from Paris. Despite the area being populated since men and apes were dating, there are rolling green hills and forests as far as the eye can see.


    Dear readers in England might get a kick out of this illustrative quote from Paul Ehrlich, the dimwitted father of modern doomsday predictions:


    “By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people ... If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”
    Speech at British Institute for Biology, September 1971


    Proving how hard it is to kill off bad ideas, to this day Ehrlich remains the president of Stanford University’s Center for Conservation Biology.



  • Capitalism Is Bad. Wake up and smell the Starbucks! Or some other brand determined to unseat Starbucks by offering better coffee at a better price. Though far from perfect—and, sorry to break it to you, but like Santa Claus, there is no such thing as a perfect economic system—minimizing government interference in the free exchange of goods and services works best at elevating the quality of life for the greatest number of people.

    Conversely, despite Marx’s quip, the systems that work worst are invariably based on some group of elites using the cover of “public good” to pull the levers on a command economy.



  • Political Correctness. Talk about a slippery slope. Today, virtually any action or word can be seen to “micro-aggress” against some sensitive soul. In response, universities and governments feel compelled to take active measures to protect those same souls.

    The end result has to be a Gordian knot of soul-draining policies, regulations, and other complexities. Oh wait, why should it be a Gordian knot? Why not Gordiana or some other gender-neutral name? Sexist bastards!



  • White People Are Bad and a Dying Breed. And that goes double for white men, eeeww! Sorry toots, but in the US 75% of the population is Caucasian, and just under half of that number are men. And it’s not just in the US that whites make up the demographic majority, by a wide margin. That is also the case in Canada, Australia, the UK, Europe, Russia, and many other countries. It may surprise you to learn that here in Argentina, the number is closer to 90%, and it’s even higher than that in Costa Rica, among many others.

    The idea that white people will effectively fade away anytime soon crashes and burns in the face of demographic facts. Regardless, focusing on the color of a person’s skin in making policy is, per my comments above, looking for ways to separate us humans, and so I am 100% against it. As far as the notion that white people are somehow bad, that’s just naked racism.



I could go on. However, as the sun is high in the sky, it is time to move on to other tasks.


As I slide toward the exit, I will sum up by expressing my concern that parts of the world, in particular the United States, are now cartwheeling down the slippery slope toward disaster. A disaster caused by the epidemic of bad ideas that have germinated in the educational system and subsequently taken root in the halls of political power.


Of course, not everyone has been equally infected. Individuals with common sense and an inclination toward facts and the scientific method are largely immune and can only view with alarm the zombie-like madness caused by bad ideas.


With the body politic so deeply divided, I really don’t see how a serious sociopolitical crisis can be avoided.


Trump’s inauguration, happening today, very well may serve as a starter pistol in unleashing the physical manifestation of the extraordinary conflict in the ideas held by approximately equal contingents of the population.


I will watch this particular parade closely and with deep concern, but very definitely from afar, here in the warm and pacific climes of the Argentine outback.


Don’t forget to duck.


(For those of you who want to read a scholarly dissertation about the takeover of the US educational system by socialists and progressives—two sides of the same coin—the National Association of Scholars recently released a comprehensive study entitled, “Making Citizens—How American Universities Teach Civics.” It’s long, but worth a scan.)


Here Come the Clowns


Mother, May I? Our clowny entry this week provides additional support for the contention that an epidemic of bad ideas has spread across the land.


In the United Kingdom where the bureaucrats have, at least until recently, seemed keen to pattern their regulatory regime to achieve a society that rhymes with Orwell’s 1984, a woman was called to the bench and made to pay a fine of £80 (US$98) for the offense of pouring a cup of coffee down the drain.


One can only hope that, with Brexit, the dogma-blinded cretins in the bureaucracy there will be chased back into the shadows.