Showing posts with label Economy of Asia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economy of Asia. Show all posts

Monday, December 11, 2017

After $150 Billion Buying Binge, "Tokyo Whale" Seen Paring Back ETF Purchases In 2018

A few months ago, we noted that the Bank of Japan had decided to throw every textbook out of the window and crank their plunge-protection to "11"after reports surfaced that they owned a staggering 75% of Japan"s ETFs.


The BOJ first started their buying spree in December 2010 - when they held no ETFs at all - and have since accumulated some $150 billion in aggregate holdings.  The buying was all as part of unprecedented "economic stimulus" which has undoubtedly contributed to the Nikkei 225 Stock Average surging roughly 125% since December 2010.


Here"s a quick graphical recap of the program courtesy of Bloomberg...



...and another look which shows the central bank owns three quarters of ETFs by market value...


 



...all of which has resulted in the following bubble stock market appreciation...



Not surprisingly, since the program started, everyone from the head of the country’s stock exchange to the chairman of the Japanese Bankers Association has questioned the ETF program’s size and whether it artificially depresses volatility.


Now, with the Nikkei surging to 25 year highs, analysts are increasingly saying it"s time for the BOJ to put this specific component of their many controversial bubble-blowing policies to rest.  Per Bloomberg:








Sometime next year, the BOJ will cut its annual buying target for domestic exchange-traded funds by as much as a third from the current 6 trillion yen ($53 billion), says Toru Ibayashi, head of Japanese equities at UBS Wealth Management in Tokyo. Soichiro Monji of Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. expects a similar reduction, but by the end of March.


 


“Four trillion yen,” UBS’s Ibayashi predicted. “And everybody will understand.”


 


"Fear of deflation was behind the 6 trillion yen target,” Daiwa SB’s Monji said in an interview. “We’re no longer in that kind of environment. Risks are now skewed toward the upside, rather than the downside. It’s hard for the central bank to justify its buying spree.”


 


“Given the circumstances at this point in time, it is difficult for the BOJ to keep buying ETFs at six trillion yen per year,” Ibayashi said.



Jonathan Garner, chief Asia and emerging markets equity strategist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong, described the ETF purchases as “perhaps the most controversial part” of the bank’s stimulus program which includes everything from negative interest rates and yield-curve control to buying tens of trillions of yen of bonds each year, on top of its stock purchases. 


Of course, not everyone agrees as Naoki Kamiyama, chief strategist for Nikko Asset Management Co. in Tokyo, and Hisao Matsuura, a strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc., both saying the BOJ won’t cut its ETF target anytime soon as "it would hurt investor confidence and make a pickup in inflation much less likely..."


You know, because every central bank"s primary objective is to boost "investor confidence" by creating massive asset bubbles that make the masses feel richer...at least until the marginal stimulus fails and the whole ponzi comes crashing down...









Friday, December 8, 2017

What"s The Best Company To Work For Where You Live?

With unemployment in the US purportedly reaching its lowest level in 17 years (that is, according to the Department of Labor"s flawed household survey) employees who once would"ve been too fearful to leave their jobs are now actively looking for opportunities. With that in mind, many have probably wondered what"s the best company to work for where they live?


Well, HowMuch.com gathered data compiled by Forbes into an infographic to try and map out the best and largest employers in every country.


Forbes recently released a ranking of the best companies in the world using a variety of different perks and benefits, like the quality of food served to employees, parental leave policies or whether companies allow their employees to nap while on the job.


HowMuch mapped these companies by paying attention to their market capitalization to get a feel for how large an organization needs to be to afford such high-quality benefits. One company therefore represents each country, color-coded by market cap. Red countries have an employer worth over $100 billion, and dark blue countries boast relatively small employers under $10 billion.



Several trends immediately pop out from our map:


  • Red countries with huge companies predominantly originate in North America and Western Europe.

  • Alphabet is the largest on our list by a landslide with a market cap of $579.5 billion, bigger than the entire GDP of Argentina.

  • The three exceptions proving the rule are a tobacco company in India called ITC with a market cap of $51.6 billion, plus Hong Kong (CNOOC, $54.8 billion) and Taiwan (Han Hai Precision, $54.4 billion). All three of these places experienced long-term and unique economic and political relationships with the West.

  • Africa only contributes a single company to Forbes’ list, namely Remgro from South Africa, a conglomerate made of many subsidiaries from different industries.

  • The Middle East and Eastern Europe also have only a few companies that made the cut.

Here’s a simplified list of the countries with the best employers in the world, ranked in order of their total market cap:


  • 1. United States - Alphabet: Computer Services - $579.5B and 72,053 employees

  • 2. Switzerland - Nestle: Food Processing - $229.5B and 328,000 employees

  • 3. Netherlands - Unilever: Household/Personal Care - $143.9B and 169,000 employees

  • 4. Germany - Daimler: Auto & Truck Manufacturers - $76.1B and 282,488 employees

  • 5. Hong Kong - CNOOC: Oil & Gas Operations - $54.8B and 19,718 employees

  • 6. Taiwan - Hon Hai Precision: Electronics - $54.4B and 1,000,000 employees

  • 7. Canada - Suncor Energy: Oil & Gas Operations – $51.7B and 12,837 employees

  • 8. India - ITC: Tobacco - $51.6B and 25,564 employees

  • 9. Italy - Enel: Electric Utilities - $47.5B and 62,080 employees

  • 10. Australia - CSL: Biotechs - $43.9B and 16,000 employees

Coming in at No. 1 is, of course, Alphabet. It tops the list because of its size and market dominance.
 









Tuesday, December 5, 2017

China: Systemic Risk Surges As HNA"s High Coupon Borrowing Binge Accelerates

In early November 2017, we returned to one of our favourite subjects, systemic risk in China related to its big four highly-indebted conglomerates, HNA, Anbang, Evergrande and Dalian Wanda. In particular, we asked whether the extortionately high coupon of 9% on an HNA dollar bond issue, with less than one year to maturity, marked the beginning of China’s Minsky moment? As we noted at the time, HNA has $28 billion of short-term debt maturing before the end of June 2018, much of it accumulated during an acquisition binge over the last two years, which has seen it become a major shareholder in companies such as Deutsche Bank AG and Hilton Worldwide Holdings.


Speaking to Bloomberg at the time, Warut Promboon, managing partner at credit research firm, Bondcritic, noted...


“Nine percent is really high for one year. Basically, it tells you that the worry is real."



In a sign that HNA is under pressure, both from the Chinese government and its creditors, CEO Adam Tan announced last week that the company was reversing its previous strategy. From Reuters.


HNA Group CEO Adam Tan said the acquisitive company is making adjustments to conform with national policies, and has sold some investments and real estate projects to improve its liquidity, domestic media reported on Tuesday.




 


Tan said the company would not invest in those areas not backed by the government, while supporting Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative, the 21st Century Herald reported. “Companies cannot invest chaotically overseas, because chaotic investment creates trouble,” Tan was quoted in a separate article by the media portal Sina.com.



HNA is already in trouble, the question is how much? The group is planning an IPO of Gategroup Holding AG, an airline catering company it only purchased in 2016 for $1.5 billion, next year. However, its interest expenses have been rising rapidly and paying 9% coupons is only going to make it worse.


Meanwhile, it continues to tap bond markets at high rates, this time paying 8.2% for an issue by a subsidiary of Hainan Airlines, the core business from which HNA developed. According to Bloomberg, units of HNA Group Co. are stepping up fundraising in the local bond market even as borrowing costs soar, adding to concerns about the Chinese conglomerate’s debt burden. Yunnan Lucky Air Co., a unit of Hainan Airlines Holding Co. -- HNA’s flag carrier -- sold a 270-day yuan bond to yield 8.2 percent last week, the highest coupon rate ever for the Yunnan airline. Tianjin Airlines Co., another subsidiary of Hainan Airlines, issued similar-maturity notes at the highest coupon rate in five years in November.



As Bloomberg notes, while other Chinese companies have cancelled bond issues, HNA doesn’t have that luxury.


While surging onshore bond yields last month forced Chinese companies to cancel the most bond offerings since April, HNA’s units didn’t slow their pace of financing. They revived debt sales from November, following a lull after news emerged in June about a crackdown by China’s banking regulator. The accelerated fundraising suggests a need for money and may hurt the conglomerate’s credit profile, according to credit research firm Bondcritic Ltd.


“They just keep piling on debt,” said Warut Promboon, managing partner at Bondcritic. “It’s not going to work.”


 


Two calls to Hainan Airlines’ public relations officers weren’t answered. There were no replies to questions sent via text messages.




The flood of issues from constituents of the HNA group is expected to continue, assuming that bond markets are amenable.


Hainan Airlines said last week that it is planning to sell 1 billion yuan of perpetual bonds on Dec. 6. That would be its third note sale in the local Chinese market in a month, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. In the carrier’s most recent sale of onshore securities last month, the company, which has top ratings from local credit assessors, issued local bonds at yields equivalent to junk notes in the nation.


 


Another HNA unit, Sanya Phoenix International Airport Co., is planning its third bond sale in three weeks on Monday, according to a statement on Nov. 29.



During his presentation last week, CEO Adam Tan commented that “Each of our business groups has its own cash flow management”. However, if Hainan Airlines is paying junk rates despite its “top” local ratings, it suggests that creditors are assessing risk from a group perspective…and unfavourably. Last week, Bloomberg noted that S&P cuts the HNA Group’s credit rating to five times below junk, citing its significant debt maturities, rising borrowing costs and proposed acquisition of New Zealand’s UDC Finance (will it ever learn).


S&P said on Wednesday it lowered HNA’s credit profile by one notch to b, or five levels below investment grade, from b+. The change was disclosed in a report by S&P on New Zealand’s UDC Finance Ltd., which HNA is seeking to buy.


 


“HNA Group has significant debt maturities over the next several years and its funding costs are meaningfully higher than that of a year ago," Andrew Mayes and Sharad Jain, analysts at S&P, wrote in their report. "We will closely monitor HNA Group’s access to capital markets and funding costs to determine whether additional actions are necessary.”


 


As to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.’s UDC Finance, S&P said it may cut the company’s long-term debt rating by four notches to a junk level of BB- from BBB if its sale to HNA is completed. The deal, announced in January, has yet to be completed pending approval from New Zealand’s overseas investment approvals board.



It’s possible that HNA is approaching the “catastrophic margin call”, from its practice of pledging its own shares and those of its investments, which we first postulated in July 2017 in “A Reverse Rollup From Hell’: China"s ‘Boldest Dealmaker’ Faces Margin Call Disintegration”. From our post.


…while most Chinese companies pledged "only" their own shares to get loans, a handful of companies also used shares of the acquired companies as pledged collateral. This is precisely what HNA Group did, which now faces not only growing regulatory scrutiny from Beijing that threatens to spook bond investors and raise HNA’s financing costs, but also send its shares plunging as holders are forced to liquidate even as most of the shares pledged to fund its buying spree are already declining, accelerating its demise. And, in a scenario that can only be dubbed as a "reverse rollup from hell" - on steroids and margin - one that would make even Valeant blush and snicker, if the value of its collateral, i.e. stock price, falls enough, HNA will soon be forced to sell its holdings to repay debt, thereby resulting in the disintegration of the company.



HNA is a private company, hence a detailed breakdown of its borrowing position and its share pledges is not available. However, the circumstantial evidence remains highly negative and the systemic risk it poses for China is likely rising not falling.









Friday, November 24, 2017

How Turkey, Iran, Russia, And India Are Playing The New Silk Roads

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,


A pacified Syria is key to the economic integration of Eurasia through energy and transportation connections...



Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Hassan Rouhani will hold a summit this Wednesday in Sochi to discuss Syria. Russia, Turkey and Iran are the three power players at the Astana negotiations – where multiple cease-fires, as hard to implement as they are, at least evolve, slowly but surely, towards the ultimate target – a political settlement.


A stable Syria is crucial to all parties involved in Eurasia integration. As Asia Times reported, China has made it clear that a pacified Syria will eventually become a hub of the New Silk Roads, known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – building on the previous business bonanza of legions of small traders commuting between Yiwu and the Levant.


Away from intractable war and peace issues, it’s even more enlightening to observe how Turkey, Iran and Russia are playing their overlapping versions of Eurasia economic integration and/or BRI-related business.


Much has to do with the energy/transportation connectivity between railway networks – and, further on the down the road, high-speed rail – and what I have described, since the early 2000s, as Pipelineistan.


map2


The Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, a deal brokered in person in Baku by the late Dr Zbigniew “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski, was a major energy/geopolitical coup by the Clinton administration, laying out an umbilical steel cord between Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.


Now comes the Baku-Tblisi-Kars (BTK) railway – inaugurated with great fanfare by Erdogan alongside Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili, but also crucially Kazakh Prime Minister Bakhytzhan Sagintayev and Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov. After all, this is about the integration of the Caucasus with Central Asia.


Erdogan actually went further: BTK is “an important chain in the New Silk Road, which aims to connect Asia, Africa, and Europe.” The new transportation corridor is configured as an important Eurasian hub linking not only the Caucasus with Central Asia but also, in the Big Picture, the EU with Western China.


BTK is just the beginning, considering the long-term strategy of Chinese-built high-speed rail from Xinjiang across Central Asia all the way to Iran, Turkey, and of course, the dream destination: the EU. Erdogan can clearly see how Turkey is strategically positioned to profit from it.


map1


Of course, BTK is not a panacea. Other connectivity points between Iran and Turkey will spring up, and other key BRI interconnectors will pick up speed in the next few years, such as the Eurasian Land Bridge across the revamped Trans-Siberian and an icy version of the Maritime Silk Road: the Northern Sea Route across the Arctic.


What’s particularly interesting in the BTK case is the Pipelineistan interconnection with the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TANAP), bringing natural gas from the massive Azeri gas field Shah Deniz-2 to Turkey and eventually the EU.


Turkish analyst Cemil Ertem stresses, “just like TANAP, the BTK Railway not only connects three countries, but also is one of the main trade and transport routes in Asia and Europe, and particularly Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan ports. It connects Central Asia to Turkey with the Marmaray project in Istanbul and via the Caspian region. Along with the Southern Gas Corridor, which constitutes TANAP’s backbone, it will also connect ports on the South China Sea to Europe via Turkey.”


It’s no wonder BTK has been met with ecstatic reception across Turkey – or, should we say, what used to be known as Asia Minor. It does spell out, graphically, Ankara’s pivoting to the East (as in increasing trade with China) as well as a new step in the extremely complex strategic interdependence between Ankara and Moscow; the Central Asian “stans”, after all, fall into Russia’s historical sphere of influence.


Add to it the (pending) Russian sale of the S-400 missile defense system to Ankara, and the Russian and Chinese interest in having Turkey as a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).


From IPI to IP and then II


Now compare the BTK coup with one of Pipelineistan’s trademark cliff-hanging soap operas; the IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India), previously dubbed “the peace pipeline”.


IPI originally was supposed to link southeastern Iran with northern India across Balochistan, via the Pakistani port of Gwadar (now a key hub of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC). The Bush and Obama administrations did everything to prevent IPI from ever being built, betting instead on the rival TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) – which would actually traverse a war zone east of Herat, Afghanistan.


TAPI might eventually be built – even with the Taliban being denied their cut (that was exactly the contention 20 years ago with the first Clinton administration: transit rights). Lately, Russia stepped up its game, with Gazprom seducing India into becoming a partner in TAPI’s construction.


But then came the recent announcement by Russian Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak: Moscow and Tehran will sign a memorandum of understanding to build a 1,200km gas pipeline from Iran to India; call it II. And Gazprom, in parallel, will invest in unexplored Iranian gas fields along the route.


Apart from the fact of a major win for Gazprom – expanding its reach towards South Asia – the clincher is the project won’t be the original IPI (actually IP), where Iran already built the stretch up to the border and offered help for Islamabad to build its own stretch; a move that would be plagued by US sanctions. The Gazprom project will be an underwater pipeline from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.


From New Delhi’s point of view, this is the ultimate win-win. TAPI remains a nightmarish proposition, and India needs all the gas it can get, fast. Assuming the new Trump administration “Indo-Pacific” rhetoric holds, New Delhi is confident it won’t be slapped with sanctions because it’s doing business with both Iran and Russia.


And then there was another key development coming out of Putin’s recent visit to Tehran: the idea – straight out of BRI – of building a rail link between St. Petersburg (on the Baltic) and Chabahar port close to the Persian Gulf. Chabahar happens to be the key hub of India’s answer to BRI: a maritime trade link to Afghanistan and Central Asia bypassing Pakistan, and connected to the North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), of which Iran, India and Russia are key members alongside Caucasus and Central Asian nations.


You don’t need a weatherman to see which way the wind blows across Eurasia; integration, all the way.









Friday, October 20, 2017

Russia Goes All In On Arctic Oil Development

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,


Neither sanctions nor persistently low oil prices are hindering Russia’s ambitions or plans to develop oil resources in its sections of the Arctic.



In April, state-controlled oil giant Rosneft started drilling the northernmost well on the Russian Arctic shelf in the Khatangsky license area in the Laptev Sea. In June, Rosneft struck first oil in the Eastern Arctic in this license.


Earlier this month, the oil firm said that recoverable reserves at the field exceed 80 million tons of oil, which is equal to around 586.4 million barrels. Geological data point to reserves at the field at 298 million tons of oil, or some 2.184 billion barrels, and the oil is high quality - light and low-sulfur, according to Rosneft.  


The Russian oil giant - whose CEO Igor Sechin is a close ally of Vladimir Putin - continues to drill at the field to study its geology, search for more oil, and define future drilling strategies at the license, Rosneft says.


Rosneft and Gazprom’s oil unit Gazprom Neft are the only two companies allowed to drill in the Arctic offshore under Russia’s legislation.


Gazprom Neft operates the only oil-producing platform in Russia’s Arctic currently. The Prirazlomnoye oil field in the Pechora Sea started pumping oil back in late 2013. The field is estimated to hold 70 million tons of oil, or 513 million barrels, with annual production averaging 5.5 million tons (40.3 million barrels) at full capacity. Related: Is The Aramco IPO On The Brink Of Collapse?


Rosneft also plans to resume drilling in the Barents Sea next year and in the Kara Sea within two years, thus committing itself to conduct drilling works across the entire Russian section of the Arctic.


Rosneft holds 28 licenses in the Russian Arctic shelf that are estimated to have combined reserves of 34 billion tons of oil equivalent, or 249.22 billion barrels. Since 2012, Rosneft has invested $1.74 billion (100 billion rubles) in Arctic exploration, and will invest in 2017-2021 another $4.354 billion (250 billion rubles).


Russia, for its part, has stated that Arctic oil and Arctic development are priorities in its policies, and is supporting development with financing in a kind of political message that sanctions won’t deter its Arctic oil ambitions.


The U.S. Treasury sanctions list from 2014 prohibits the exports of goods, services (not including financial services), or technology in support of exploration or production for Russian deepwater, Arctic offshore, or shale projects that have the potential to produce oil. 


While Western banks are still evaluating the potential impact of the latest round of U.S. sanctions on Russia from this summer, Moscow is committing funds to Artic development. At the end of August, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia will finance the development of the Artic continental shelf and the economy of the local areas with more than $2.787 billion (160 billion rubles) by 2025. He said Russia’s program for Arctic development rests on three pillars: boosting economic growth, developing sea infrastructure, and developing the continental shelf with modern technology and equipment. Related: Oil Markets Fear Iraqi Escalation


As part of that program, in 2021-2025, the government will fund $414.5 million (23.8 billion rubles) for a program to build oil and gas equipment and technology and industrial machinery for exploration and development in the Arctic.


According to experts cited by Rosneft, the Arctic shelf is expected to account for 20-30 percent of Russia’s total oil production by 2050.


It’s not clear who will need Russian Arctic oil in 2050, but in the shorter term, Russia is betting on the Arctic, and Rosneft’s exploration success this year could really pay off. 









Tuesday, July 11, 2017

China's Richest Man Forced To Sell World's Largest Indoor Ski Resort 2 Weeks After It Opened

The man who declared war on Disneyland just opened the world’s largest indoor ski resort. And now he’s being forced to sell it.


As the South China Morning Post reports, Wanda City, the $6 billion resort development built by China’s wealthiest tycoon Wang Jianlin, opened for business two weeks ago. The resort, which, at 1.6 square kilometres, is the world’s largest indoor ski park.



Now, it’s being sold along with the company’s other theme-park related holdings as Wanda Group seeks to pay down some of its enormous debt burden, which has recently attracted the scrutiny of Chinese authorities. The push into theme parks, part of the conglomerates debt-fueled global shopping spree involving several entertainment businesses, was partly an issue of national pride for Wang. When Disneyland Shanghai opened last year, drawing enormous crowds, Wang angrily declared “the frenzy of Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck and blindly following them is over,” according to the New York Times, and vowed that his theme parks would be even more successful.


The announcement of the deal triggered a bizarre reaction when shares of Wanda Hotel Development (0169.HK) - which is mostly responsible for development of property projects outside of China -and  which inexplicably surged more than 150% after news of the deal... even though none of the hotels being sold are included under this entity.  As shown in the chart below, shares of Wanda Hotel Development exploded higher, the most since April 2013, after the news that its parent was selling hotel assets to Sunac, yet assets which were completely unrelated to 0169.HK.



Located in the city of Harbin - near the country’s northern border with Russia - the resort features Russian architecture, a movie theater and a grand piano-shaped indoor ski resort that allows 3,000 people to ski or snowboard on six runs, all in an area covering 1.6 square kilometres. Up to 30,000 people will be hired to work in the resort, Wang said around the time of the opening. Harbin is also known for having China’s harshest winters.





“Harbin is known as the city of ice, which also happens to be the main theme of this resort, so we will together provide winter sports throughout the year,” Wang said.



According to the SCMP, skiing is gaining popularity in China, as the country prepares to host the 2022 winter Olympics in Zhangjiakou near Beijing.


The indoor ski slope isn’t exactly exotic in Harbin, where the winter season can last as long as six months, with the lowest temperature plummeting to minus 36 degrees Celsius. The city’s main tourist attraction is its annual ice festival, featuring life-size sculptures carved out of ice.


“This is a brand-new community that includes not only a theme park, but also a school, a hospital, housing and hotels,” said Andrew Kam, vice president of Wanda Cultural Industry Group, whom Wang hired from Hong Kong Disneyland. “There is nothing like this before.”


Wang had pumped nearly 40 billion yuan ($6 billion) into the Harbin resort, since opening a similar-size Wanda City in Nanchang city in southeastern China’s Jiangxi province in May last year.


Tickets to Wanda’s Harbin resort start from 68 yuan for a 2-hour tour of a snow castle for an adult, and as much as 488 yuan for unlimited use of the ski slope. By comparison, an adult ticket at Shanghai Disneyland costs start from 370 yuan during the low season and goes up to 499 yuan during the peak season.



Wanda agreed to sell its theme-park business on Monday as part of a $9.3 billion deal involving 76 hotels and a major chunk of 13 tourism projects. Wang sold the portfolio to Sun Hongbin’s Sunac China in a deal worth 63 billion yuan (US$9.3 billion). All the proceeds from the sale will be used to repay bank loans, Chinese media Caixin reported.


The sale comes after China’s banking regulator last month asked lenders to review loans made to big overseas deal makers, including Wanda, to assess whether their escalating debt posed a credit risk, the Wall Street Journal noted.


While no wrongdoing was indicated, the revelation sent the stock prices of Wanda-related companies falling, while the yield on its bonds shot up. Wanda was cited on June 22 by the China Banking Regulatory Commission for special attention, along with the country’s three other biggest overseas asset buyers Anbang Group, Fosun Group and the HNA Group. The four must pay the equivalent of $11.5 billion in debt service by the end of 2018.



Wanda said it’s disposing of assets to “fully exercise the competitive industrial advantage” with its buyer, but analysts, who already smell blood in the water, say the company may be buckling under the scrutiny of China’s banking regulator to pare back on debt.





“Wanda may be feeling the financial pressure, or it won’t need to sell off so many assets,” said Liu Feifan, a property analyst at Guotai Junan International. “Wanda may badly need funding to support its expansion, but can’t count on rental income.”



The company has confronted other failures earlier this year. Wanda had to abandon a $1 billion takeover of Dick Clark Production in March, after it failed to obtain regulatory approval to remit funds for the acquisition, incurring a $50 million breakup penalty. The company famously bought film-production studio Legendary Entertainment, which released the blockbuster “Jurassic Park III,” in early 2016, provoking fears among lawmakers that the company’s new Chinese owners would seek to influence how China is portrayed in US media.



The deal is the single largest property transaction in Chinese history. Sunac China, the seventh-largest Chinese developer, was founded by Shanxi tycoon Sun Hongbin, one of the country’s most acquisitive property developers. The deal also shows how quickly companies will respond to regulators’ concerns. It raises the question: Will this be China’s preferred strategy for deleveraging its corporate sector? An ad-hoc approach where regulators single out companies for criticism, then allow pressure from investors to work its magic?

Friday, March 24, 2017

China's Largest Dairy Operator Suddenly Crashes 90% To Record Low, Muddy Waters Says "Worth Close To Zero"

In December 2016, Muddy Waters" Carson Block said China"s largest dairy farm operator, Hong-Kong listed China Huishan Dairy Holdings Co., is "worth close to zero" and questioned its profitability in a report. Today, with no catalyst, it suddenly almost is. The stock collapsed over 90% in minutes to a record low.


The sudden crash wiped out about $4.2 billion in market value in the stock, which is a member of the MSCI China Index.




In December, Muddy Waters alleged that Huishan had been overstating its spending on its cow farms by as much as 1.6 billion yuan to “support the company’s income statement." The report also alleged that the company made an unannounced transfer of a subsidiary that owned at least four cow farms to an undisclosed related party and Muddy Waters concluded that Chairman Yang Kai controls the subsidiary and farms. Those findings came from several months of research including visits to 35 farms and five production facilities, drone flyovers of Huishan sites and interviews with alfalfa suppliers, according to the report. Muddy Waters said it has shorted Huishan’s stock.


“It will be even harder for Huishan to get funded in the capital market after the report, amid a couple of earlier allegations that have raised some red flags to investors,” said Robin Yuen, an analyst at RHB OSK Securities Hong Kong Ltd. Still, Huishan’s shares and operations are unlikely to “collapse” due to its high share concentration and sufficient cash flow generated by its dairy business, he said by telephone.


About 73 percent of Huishan’s shares are held by Champ Harvest Ltd., a company that’s in turn 90-percent owned by Yang. A buying spree by Yang had supported the shares last year, making it a painful trade for short sellers. A one-year rally of about 80 percent through a peak in June had made the shares expensive.


Well that is all over now!!

Thursday, February 2, 2017

AK-47 Maker Staffs Up Amid Surge In Export Orders

As the world roils amid Middle East maelstroms, Donald Trump dysphoria, and terrorist tantrums, there is a silver-lining for some. As MSN reports, the maker of the AK-47 semi-automatic machine gun says it is to increase staff by 30% because of a surge in export orders.


As a reminder this surge in demand follows US sanctions banning the import of Kalashnikov firearms from Russia in 2014.



The Kalashnikov Group put out a press release from its Moscow office Monday stating that it will create a further 1,700 jobs this year.





"Following the growth of production volume, which was driven by the rise in the number of export orders, it was decided to increase the number of the Group"s employees," said Alexey Krivoruchko, chief executive of the Kalashnikov Group.



"The challenge we face is managing the growing number of orders. To fulfil them, as of April 2017, production will run in three shifts," he added.



The Kalashnikov Group said it employed around 5,500 people at the end of 2016. The new staff will be recruited to work as service technicians, grinders, toolmakers and machine operators.



Kalashnikovs remain the most popular rifle in history...