US Is Sending Another Aircraft Carrier To Korea: Yonhap

After carrying out bombing drills over the Korean peninsula on Monday following North Korea’s firing of an intermediate-range missile over the Japanese island of Hokkaido, US and South Korean forces are planning to continue their displays of military might early next month, according to a report from Yonhap, the South Korean news agency. However, in a move that is sure to provoke a barrage of threats from North Korea, the US is reportedly sending a nuclear-armed aircraft carrier to the waters off the Korean peninsula, where it will take part in an upcoming round of military drills.

Earlier this year, the US sent three aircraft carriers to waters near North Korea in an unprecedented show of force. However, it"s unclear if any of those carriers are still positioned so closely to the peninsula. Here"s the latest map of US naval strike groups, which was compiled by Stratfor using publicly-available information. Deployments considered "sensitive" would not be included on this map.

As Yonhap reports, the aircraft carrier will participate in a series of naval drills with South Korean forces. Yonhap didn’t reveal the name of the carrier. South Korea and the US will also conduct a “combined missile alert drill” in late September or early October, for which they will be joined by Japan, Yonhap said, citing a source in South Korea’s Ministry of Defense. The US is also expected to once again send B-1B strategic bombers stationed in Guam to Korea later this month in a warning to the North.

However, given UN Ambassador Nikki Haley’s revelation that the UN Security Council may have reached the limits of its ability to economically pressure the isolated country, it’s understandable that the US would want to signal an escalation in its flexing of military muscle, to show. After all, the US needs to maintain the illusion that “military options” remain on the table. Even though, as former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon confirmed in an interview before he was ousted from the West Wing, there aren’t any options available to the US that wouldn’t lead to millions of civilian deaths in Seoul from conventional weapons fire.

US, Japanese and South Korean officials believe North Korea is “in the final stages” of developing a long-range ballistic missile that would be able to reliably strike the Continental US. The North believes obtaining such a weapon is essential to the regime"s survival, but the prospect of a nuclear-armed North Korea - which is already, in a sense, a reality - has horrified the international community.

According to Yonhap, the South Korean defense ministry expects the North to soon carry out more missile tests, as well as an expected seventh nuclear test.

To be sure, news of the aircraft carrier being sent to the waters around the Korean peninsula may remind readers of President Donald Trump’s promise to send a strike force of nuclear-armed submarines to the waters of the peninsula earlier this year, only for media reports to confirm that the submarines were, in fact, headed in the other direction.

Assuming the carrier is, in fact, headed to its reported post, such an act would be interpreted as an unprecedented provocation by Kim Jong Un and his generals, and likely demand a response in kind.

North Korea Vows To Complete Nuke Program, Reach "Military Equilibrium" With The US

Shortly after the UN Security Council "strongly condemned" North Korea’s “highly provocative” ballistic missile launch over Japan on Friday, Kim Jong Un vowed he would complete his nation"s nuclear program despite escalating international sanctions. On Saturday, state-run news agency KCNA quoted the leader, who said that North Korea is nearing its goal of "equilibrium of real force” with the U.S. and claimed that North Korea"s nuclear program is nearly complete.

KCNA added that Friday"s latest missile test was aimed at “calming down the belligerence of the U.S.” and “confirming action procedures of actual war,” the state-run agency said in a statement. Kim personally guided the launch of the latest Hwasong-12 missile, it added.

Hwasong-12 missile lifting off from Pyongyang, on Aug. 29.

KCNA also said that Kim expressed great satisfaction over the launch, which he said verified the “combat efficiency and reliability” of the missile and the success of efforts to increase its power. While the English version of the report was less straightforward, AP noted that the Korean version quoted Kim as declaring the missile as operationally ready. He vowed to complete his nuclear weapons program in the face of strengthening international sanctions, the agency said.

Photos published by North Korea’s state media showed the missile being fired from a truck-mounted launcher and a smiling Kim clapping and raising his fist while celebrating from an observation point.

It was the first time North Korea showed the missile being launched directly from a vehicle, which experts said indicated confidence about the mobility and reliability of the system.

In previous tests, North Korea used trucks to transport and erect the Hwasong-12s, but moved the missiles on separate firing tables before launching them.

Kim also said the country, despite “limitless” international sanctions, has nearly completed the building of its nuclear weapons force and called for “all-state efforts” to reach the goal and obtain a “capacity for nuclear counterattack the U.S. cannot cope with.”

“As recognized by the whole world, we have made all these achievements despite the U.N. sanctions that have lasted for decades,” the agency quoted Kim as saying.

Kim said the country’s final goal “is to establish the equilibrium of real force with the U.S. and make the U.S. rulers dare not talk about military option for the DPRK,” referring to North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

More importantly, he indicated that more missile tests would be forthcoming, saying that all future drills should be “meaningful and practical ones for increasing the combat power of the nuclear force” to establish an order in the deployment of nuclear warheads for “actual war.”

Prior to the launches over Japan, North Korea had threatened to fire a salvo of Hwasong-12s toward Guam, the U.S. Pacific island territory and military hub the North has called an “advanced base of invasion.”

Separately, on Satruday China rebuffed U.S. demands to cut off oil exports to North Korea as a way to dissuade Kim Jong-Un’s regime from pursuing nuclear weapons, saying instead it was American leaders who needed to "tone down their rhetoric and come to the negotiating table." China will implement all United Nations Security Council resolutions, “no more, no less,” Cui Tiankai, China’s ambassador to the U.S., told reporters at a briefing in Washington when asked if China would cut oil shipments. Any further steps would need to be worked out with the agreement of the entire UN Security Council, he said.

On Thursday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson demanded that China use its role as the main exporter of oil to North Korea to force Kim to abandon his nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. Hours earlier, North Korea had launched a missile over Japan, the latest in a series of actions that have rattled the international community and prompted a new round of U.S.-led sanctions.

Cui said the U.S., not China, needed to take more responsibility for the issue. “They cannot just leave the issue to China alone, and honestly I think the United States should be doing more, much more than now, so that there is real effective international cooperation on this issue, Cui said.

Asked what specifically the U.S. should do, Cui said “they should refrain from issuing more threats” and “do more to find an effective way to resume dialogue and negotiation.”

For now, neither threats nor dialogue have made any progress at de-escalating the increasingly more hostile standoff.

United Nations Unanimously Approves New Sanctions On North Korea

The UN Security Council has unanimously voted to step up sanctions on North Korea in retaliation for the country’s recent sixth and most powerful nuclear test. The 15-member Security Council passed the resolution unanimously, with both China and Russia siding with the US against North Korea, which however should not come as a surprise because as previewed this morning, the US drastically watered down its original sanctions proposal, which now excludes Trump"s prior demands for an oil import ban as well as international asset freeze on the government and leader Kim Jong Un, in order to win the support of Moscow and Beijing. This was the ninth sanctions resolution unanimously adopted by the 15-member council since 2006 over North Korea’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Despite the compromises, U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley said the resolution would cut North Korean exports by 90% and reduce the refined products available to North Korea by 44% and fuel by 30%. “Today we are saying the world will never accept a nuclear armed North Korea,” she said. “This will cut deep.”

Well, not really: the resolution slashes 55% of the country’s gas, diesel and heavy fuel imports, imposing a ban on condensates and natural gas liquids, a cap of 2 million barrels a year on refined petroleum products, and a cap on crude oil imports at current levels, in other words N.Korea"s oil flow remain untouched (as a reminder, China supplies most of North Korea’s crude). According to US officials quoted by Reutrs, North Korea imports some 4.5 million barrels of refined petroleum products annually and 4 million barrels of crude oil.

The new resolution also will impose an embargo on all textile trade and require inspections and monitoring of North Korea’s sea vessels by member states, but doesn’t provide for the use of military force to gain access to the ships.

According to the WSJ, a proposed ban on North Korean foreign workers, a source of an estimated $1 billion in annual revenue to the regime, also was reworded to allow countries to employ North Korean nationals if deemed vital for humanitarian reasons. It also doesn’t apply to workers who hold contracts taking effect before the adoption of the resolution.

Previously, China and Russia - veto-holders on the 15-member Security Council - had voiced opposition to harsher measures and threatened to block the vote if the ban on oil remained. China is reluctant to pressure the North Korean regime to the brink of collapse fearing instability at its border, a flow of refugees and a possible American military presence. Both Russia and China have said they favor direct talks and not sanctions.

Nikki Haley said that the sanctions will target $1.3 billion in North Korea revenue. The US ambassador to the UN added that the "strong relationship between Trump and Xi played a key role in negotiating the new UN sanctions", or translated: China imposed its terms on the US proposal so that China would note veto the mostly optical measure, to avoid making Trump look weak again in the UN. She also said that the US is "not looking for war" with North Korea, and added that North Korea has not yet "passed the point of no return." That said, by now it is completely unclear just what would entail passing said "point of no return."

After a week of intense negotiations, a unanimous Security Council vote against North Korea was viewed as politically more important than a strong U.S. stand that risked division, diplomats said. “Any perception of weakness on the side of the Security Council would only encourage the regime to continue its provocations and objectively create the risk of an increasingly extreme situation,” said France’s Ambassador François Delattre.

Of course, further provocations by the regime at this point remain all too likely. And so, now attention turns to Pyongyang and North Korea"s response: overnight, the state-run KCNA agency unleashed numerous warnings and threats toward the US should the sanctions pass.  “In case the U.S. eventually does rig up the illegal and unlawful ‘resolution’ on harsher sanctions, the DPRK [North Korea] shall make absolutely sure that the U.S. pays due price,” the spokesman of the country’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

However, it is unclear if these drastically watered down sanctions, which have China"s explicit blessing, will be sufficient to prompt another ICBM launch and/or nuclear test. In any case, keep an eye on those flashing red headlines.

China Warns Trump: "We Will Back North Korea If The US Strikes First"

All day Saturday, South Korea braced for a possible new missile test by North Korea as the provocative northern neighbor marked its founding anniversary, just days after its sixth and largest nuclear test rattled global financial markets and further escalated tensions in the region. Throughout the week, South Korean officials warned the North could launch another intercontinental ballistic missile, in defiance of U.N. sanctions and to further provoke the US. As Reuters reports, Pyongyang marks its founding anniversary each year with a big display of pageantry and military hardware. Last year, North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test on the Sept. 9 anniversary.

Ultimately, September 9 came and went, and North Korea did nothing, perhaps signalling its eagerness to de-escalate. Or perhaps not, and Kim is simply looking to surprise his adversaries with the ICBM launch date. Experts have said the rogue, isolated regime is close to its goal of developing a powerful nuclear weapon capable of reaching the United States, something Trump has vowed to prevent.

Celebrating its founding anniversary, a front-page editorial of the Saturday edition of North Korea’s official Rodong Sinmun said the country should make “more high-tech Juche weapons to continuously bring about big historical events such as a miraculous victory of July 28.”. The July date refers to the intercontinental ballistic missile test (Juche is North Korea’s homegrown ideology of self-reliance that is a mix of Marxism and extreme nationalism preached by state founder Kim Il Sung, the current leader’s grandfather).

* * *

Meanwhile, South Korean nuclear experts, checking for contamination, said on Friday they had found minute traces of radioactive xenon gas but that it was too early to link it to Sunday’s explosion. The Nuclear Safety and Security Commission (NSSC) said it had been conducting tests on land, air and water samples since shortly after the North Korean nuclear test on Sunday. There was no chance the xenon “will have an impact on South Korea’s territory or population”, the agency said.

What is more concerning, however, is a Friday report on NBC, according to which Trump is readying a package of diplomatic and military moves against North Korea, including cyberattacks and increased surveillance and intelligence operations, after the nation"s sixth and largest nuclear test.

Trump"s top national security advisers walked him through a range of options over lunch in the White House on Sunday, just hours after North Korea"s latest test, officials said.

According to NBC, Trump is also seriously considering adopting diplomatically risky sanctions on Chinese banks doing business with Pyongyang and upgrading missile defense systems in the region, administration officials said. In addition, the administration is not ruling out moving tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea should Seoul request them, a White House official said, though many consider such a move a nonstarter. It would break with nearly three decades of U.S. policy of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.

U.S. officials have also made the case to China that if Beijing doesn"t take stronger steps against North Korea, such as cutting off oil exports, South Korea and Japan are likely to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs and the U.S. won"t stop them, the official said. "It"s more a message for China than North Korea," the official said.

The U.S. has adopted sanctions aimed at Chinese entities that conduct business with North Korea, but has so far held back on broadly targeting China"s banking system. China has told U.S. officials it would protest such a move diplomatically and retaliate, according to the senior administration official.

So what happened on Sunday? According to NBC, Trump"s national security advisers presented him with U.S. military options, including pre-emptive strikes, and nuclear capabilities should America be called on to abide by its treaty obligations in the region, White House and defense officials said.

The president"s advisers have made the case, however, that military strikes on North Korea could have serious repercussions, senior defense officials said, and the most glaring among these is that China has told administration officials that if the U.S. strikes North Korea first, Beijing would back Pyongyang, a senior military official told NBC.

This is not the first time China has warned the US not to escalate: on August 11, Beijing, through the state-owned media, cautioned the US president on Friday that it would intervene (militarily) on North Korea’s behalf if the US and South Korea launch a preemptive strike to “overthrow the North Korean regime,” according to a statement in the influential state-run newspaper Global Times.

"If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so," it said.

At the same time, the Chinese regime made it clear that its preferred outcome would be a continuation of the status quo, warning Kim Jong Un, or perhaps Trump, that it would "remain neutral if North Korea were to strike first."

As we said almost one month ago:

"not surprisingly, analysts have compared the standoff between the two nuclear powers (the North is a recent, if untested, member of this club) to a modern day Cuban Missile crisis.  "This situation is beginning to develop into this generation"s Cuban Missile crisis moment," ING"s chief Asia economist Robert Carnell said in a research note. "While the U.S. president insists on ramping up the war of words, there is a decreasing chance of any diplomatic solution."

Since then, the potential risks, mutual threats and near-hostilities have grown exponentially. China - which is by far North Korea’s biggest trading partner, accounting for 92% of two-way trade last year, and also provides hundreds of thousands of tonnes of oil and fuel to the impoverished regime - has only dug in deeper, explaining repeatedly that it wants a peaceful de-escalation and that it would not side with the US in case of a military conflict.

* * *

What happens next? Well, on one hand, after today"s lack of launch, there is hope that things will indeed de-escalate. A headline that just hit from Yonhap may accelerate this:

• SOUTH KOREA SEES NO SIGNS OF IMMINENT ADDITIONAL PROVOCATIONS BY NORTH KOREA THAT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER MISSILE OR NUCLEAR TEST: YONHAP

On the other hand, what the US does next may be a sufficient provocation to force Kim to lob another ICBM. Earlier today, Reuters reported that the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier left its home port in Japan for a routine autumn patrol of the Western Pacific, a Navy spokeswoman said. That area included "waters between Japan and the Korean peninsula." North Korea vehemently objects to military exercises on or near the peninsula, and China and Russia have suggested the United States and South Korea halt their exercises to lower tension.

Another imminent escalation is due on Monday.

That"s when the United States told the U.N. Security Council that it intends to call a meeting to vote on a draft resolution establishing additional sanctions.  U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said last Monday that she intended to call for a vote on Sept. 11 and then the United States circulated a draft resolution to the 15-member council on Wednesday.

The United States wants the Security Council to impose an oil embargo on North Korea, ban its exports of textiles and the hiring of North Korean laborers abroad, and to subject Kim Jong Un to an asset freeze and travel ban, according to a draft resolution seen by Reuters on Wednesday.

It was not immediately clear how North Korean allies China and Russia would vote, but a senior U.S. official on Friday night expressed scepticism that either nation would accept anything more stringent than a ban on imports of North Korean textiles. Chinese officials have privately expressed fears that imposing an oil embargo could risk triggering massive instability in its neighbor. 

Meanwhile, tensions are also growing between China and South Korea. The two countries have been at loggerheads over South Korea’s decision to deploy the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system, which has a powerful radar that can probe deep into China. Shares in South Korean automaker Hyundai Motor and key suppliers slid on Friday on worries over its position in China after highly critical Chinese state newspaper comments. Recently Hyundai auto sales in China have crashed as local suppliers and potential customers have shied away from the company due to nationalistic prerogatives. The military section of China’s Global Times newspaper on Thursday referred to THAAD as “a malignant tumor”.

The good news, for markets, is that this Saturday"s widely anticipated ICBM launch from North Korea did not take place; the bad news is that said launch was at best delayed, and if and when it comes, the US will have to choose: do nothing again, and appears increasingly weak on the global diplomatic arena, or retaliate, and risk dragging China into the conflict, potentially precipitating the appearance of mushroom clouds around the globe.

North Korea Slams "Political Prostitute" Nikki Haley, Whose "Tongue Lashing" Will Cost US Dearly

With North Korea expected to launch another ballistic missile as soon as September 9, a local holiday, a statement carried on North Korea’s state-run KCNA news service warned that Washington"s UN Ambassador Nikki Haley’s remarks that Pyongyang was “begging for war” would not be left unanswered and that the US will “pay dearly” for this provocation..

On Friday, a news broadcast from the official state-run Korean Central News Agency described Haley as a “political prostitute” whose “hysteric fit” would have dire consequences for the United States.

“Nikki should be careful with her tongue though she might be a blind fool,” said the statement on KCNA. “The US administration will have to pay a dear price for her tongue-lashing.”

Amusing threats and flamboyant jingoism aside, the entire KCNA press release has to be read in its entirety if only for its pure geopolitical poetry:

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, a political prostitute, has kicked off a hysteric fit, exasperated by the DPRK"s nuclear weaponization that has reached its final phase.

At an urgent UN Security Council meeting on Sept. 4 she hurt the dignity of the supreme leadership of the DPRK, stunning the world public. Her rubbish about "misuse of missile and nuclear weapon" and "begging for a war" is just a revelation of the ill-intended purpose to adopt a new toughest "sanctions resolution" with ease by describing the DPRK as a "provoker of war."

As far as Nikki Haley is concerned, she is just a beginner in politics and diplomacy as she came under public criticism for her string of rubbish over the ballistic rocket launch of the DPRK in March last.

Not content with it, she fully revealed her bad blood toward the DPRK by slandering it over its non-existent "human rights issue" and crying out for taking a military option against it. She is crazily swishing her skirt, playing the flagship role in Trump administration"s hideous sanctions and pressure racket against the DPRK.

She became a laughing stock of the world public for her reckless tongue-lashing devoid of any elementary conception of reason. It seems that she is still ignorant of what disaster would be entailed by her stupidity.

So wretched is the plight of the U.S. which put forward such depraved woman and beginner diplomat as its representative in the UN arena.

She talked as if the DPRK were inviting a war while the U.S. wanted peace, asserting that there is a limit to the patience of the U.S. But with no rhetoric can the U.S. cover up its true colors as chieftain of aggression and war and wrecker of peace.

In actuality, the heavyweights of the U.S. are busy with arms selling.

* * *

The U.S. escalating nuclear threats and blackmails pushed the DPRK to have access to nukes, and the world acknowledges that the DPRK"s access to nukes is a reasonable option to protect its vital rights and sovereignty. Nothing will be more foolish than to think that the DPRK, a strong nuclear power, will remain passive toward that outrageous pressure aimed at crippling its "social system."

Nikki should be careful with her tongue though she might be a blind fool. The U.S. administration will have to pay a dear price for her tongue-lashing

The United Nations Security Council held an emergency session over North Korea on Monday, during which Haley insisted that Pyongyang’s actions show it is “begging for war,” further calling for adoption of the harshest diplomatic measures against the North.

"[Kim Jong-un’s] abusive use of missiles and his nuclear threats show that he is begging for war,” she adding that "enough is enough. War is never something the United States wants. We don"t want it now. But our country"s patience is not unlimited. We have kicked the can down the road long enough. There is no more road left.”

While relations between the US and North Korea have been at rock bottom for months, there was an uproar over Pyongyang’s sixth and the biggest nuclear test to date, which was conducted on September 3. The bomb was also about three times more powerful than America"s atomic bomb that destroyed Japan’s Hiroshima in 1945.

North Korean state television said on Sunday that, “The hydrogen bomb test was a perfect success,” adding that the device was capable of being loaded onto long-range missiles

China, Russia and South Korea are among the countries that have voiced criticism of the North"s last nuclear test. Washington has also condemned Pyongyang, and US President Donald Trump has described North Korea as a “rogue nation,” which has become a “great threat and embarrassment” to China, North Korea"s main ally.

North Korea is under mounting pressure over its missile and military nuclear programs and has been subjected to an array of sanctions by the United Nations. However, Pyongyang says it needs to continue and develop the programs as a deterrent against hostility by the United States and its regional allies, including South Korea and Japan. The nuclear and missile programs were in fact “an exercise of restraint and justified self-defense right" to counter “the ever-growing and decade-long US nuclear threat and hostile policy aimed at isolating my country,” Han said.

The United States and its allies do not rule out a military option against North Korea, but Russia and China warn that no military solution is available for resolving the escalating crisis, warning the current standoff will only be resolved through dialogue.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have heightened since Washington recently engineered tougher sanctions in the Security Council over the North’s testing of two intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM). On Monday, the South Korean military said the North was preparing for another missile launch, possibly an ICBM test, a few hours after Seoul conducted a live-fire ballistic missile exercise, simulating an attack on the North’s main nuclear site.

Jim Rickards: The North Korean Endgame is Playing Out Now

Via Daily Reckoning,

As mounting tensions rise from the latest round of nuclear testing out of North Korea, Jim Rickards believes a considerable window is closing by the United States. The threat of a nuclear armed and capable North Korea is a line that the currency wars expert and macro analyst believes the United States will now allow to be crossed. Speaking on CNBC’s Capital Connection Rickards offered his latest critique of the restrictions and response by the international community on North Korea.

The interview began with a question what an oil embargo would mean for North Korea and how it would impact that country. Rickards blasts,

“North Korea has already beaten the world to the punch. They’ve been building up their strategic oil reserves. What that means is they have an estimated year’s worth of held in reserve and China has played a role in these things in the past.”

Jim Rickards is the editor of Strategic Intelligence and a best-selling author featured in the New York Times for his latest work, The Road to Ruin. Rickards’ worked on Wall Street for over three decades and has advised the U.S intelligence community on international finance, trade and financial warfare tactics.

“The area that would be effective for a reactionary measure would be for the United States to exclude the People’s Bank of China, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and some of the other major Chinese banks from within the U.S dollar payment systems. The U.S could completely shut down the U.S operations.”

On the keys to a successful response, Rickards notes that China plays a pivotal role. The macro analyst relays, “Ultimately, the Chinese are facilitating the North Korean finance. The move would be a kind of sanction with bite behind it. My expectation would be that China wouldn’t necessarily put pressure on North Korea. In reaction we could see escalation of further sanctions from the Chinese against the United States leaving for a trade and financial war without solving the North Korean situation.”

Speaking on the impact of nuclear development in the country the intelligence community advisor warns, “Currently, North Korea is in what is classified as a ‘break out.’ Under typical nuclear development phases, we’ve normally seen countries that are cheating on nuclear development programs complete their operations in baby steps.  In the process they proceed gradually and when they do draw attention will stall programs until beginning again at a later date. North Korea has put that pattern aside and is in complete breakout.”

“To give a U.S football comparison, they’re in the red zone and the quarterback is simply about to throw a pass into the end zone. The leader of North Korea is going for it and not hiding anything.

 The leadership in North Korea is hoping that the United States is bluffing and that they will be able to get a serviceable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with a hydrogen bomb that could threaten or destroy Los Angeles before the U.S could do anything. The United States is facing a six month window to act and I believe they will.”

When asked about the preemptive strike threat by the United States and what it means for China the currency wars expert narrowed in, “China will be looking out for its own interest. They will have great concern over a U.S ground invasion in North Korea and as was the case in 1951 they would be highly concerned over any proximity of forces to the border. There would also be concerns that the U.S is attempting to reunify the Korean Peninsula under U.S strategic interests.”

“The way I expect that the U.S government will approach the situation is to approach China in outlining that it will be functioning toward strategical means. What that would signal is that they are not going to get anywhere near the Yalu River and that special operations and cyber warfare will be a key role.”

“My expectation is that the first steps will see the country going dark by shutting down the power grid and cutting off the command and control operations. From there they will use psychological warfare tactics. The objective will be to disrupt all North Korean operations before the heavy bombers move in. North Korea will be limited and reduced in its artillery response.”

“All of that will be relatively close to the demilitarized zone (DMZ) region. By indicating to China that when the U.S military operation is over, they will be looking to open up communications and negotiations to reunify stability on mutually acceptable terms.”

As Rickards noted previously, North Korea detonated a nuclear weapon early on Sunday, Sept. 3. This was the sixth time they had done so, but the first time since their ICBM missile tests and the first time under President Trump’s administration.

This test was different in another important way. It is estimated to be a hydrogen bomb instead of an atomic bomb. The difference is significant.

Both types of nuclear weapons work by releasing neutrons in critical-state radioactive material, either highly enriched uranium or plutonium. The difference is that the atomic bomb works by fission, literally “splitting” an atom, so that a neutron is emitted, collides with other atoms and causes a chain reaction with an enormous release of energy.

The hydrogen bomb works by fusion. Atomic particles are “fused,” or pushed together, in a way that destabilizes the atom and also releases a neutron.

Both methods start a chain reaction. But the fusion method in a hydrogen bomb is orders of magnitude more powerful. The destructive force can be 100 or even 1,000 times greater than that of an atomic bomb.

This gives North Korea many more options in their attack scenarios.

They can put more destructive force in a smaller space, thereby achieving the warhead miniaturization needed to fit on an ICBM.

They do not have to worry as much about accuracy. An atomic weapon has to hit the target to destroy it. A hydrogen bomb just has to come close. This means that North Korea can pose an existential threat to U.S. cities even if its missile guidance systems are not quite perfected. Close is good enough.

Finally, a hydrogen bomb gives North Korea the ability to unleash an electromagnetic pulse (EMP). In this scenario, the hydrogen bomb does not even strike the Earth; it is detonated near the edge of space. The resulting electromagnetic wave from the release of energy could knock out the entire U.S. power grid. Good luck with your bitcoins in that scenario.

Got gold?

These threats are existential from a U.S. perspective. Deterrence does not work when the opponent has so little to lose.

Gold, Yen Spooked After South Korea Scaremongers Looming North Korean Launch

After President Trump"s modest de-escalation in the North Korea situation during the US day session, South Korea has decided to reignite the smoldering fires tonight.

Scaremongering of "expectations of a Sept 9th ICBM missile launch," which was widely known since it is a public holiday in North Korea, South Korea"s Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon warned ominously that there"s "not much time left until North Korea is fully nuclear-armed."

His words sent JPY and Gold higher...

Green Beret Warns: "Skepticism Will Vanish When The Power Suddenly Fails Across The US"

Authored by Jeremiah Johnson (nom de plume of a retired Green Beret of the United States Army Special Forces ) via SHTFplan.com,

It should be obvious, now, even to the most vocal and acetic naysayers that no matter how much they try to declare that nothing will happen regarding North Korea, they’re wrong. 

It is happening, as we speak, and the buildup reached a high octave with North Korea’s sixth nuclear detonation, one that experts are saying was between 100 to 120 kilotons.  This detonation occurred in North Korea’s test facility on Sunday, and North Korean news stated that it was a hydrogen bomb.  Here’s a Wall Street Journal article excerpt:

“In a televised statement, North Korea described the underground explosion, which triggered a large earthquake, as a “perfect success in the test of a hydrogen bomb for an ICBM.”

Pyongyang said, “the creditability of the operation of the nuclear warhead is fully guaranteed.”  The test came just hours after leader Kim Jong Un showed off what he described as a hydrogen bomb capable of being mounted on an intercontinental ballistic missile.” 

Now, the Western Consumer Marketing/Euro Arrogance-Confidence News Networks and Politicos all decried North Korea’s capabilities for years. 

The news-twisters and politicos still only begrudgingly admit what recognized experts have been jumping up and down to warn the public about for years, namely this:

1. That North Korea does indeed possess nuclear weapons


2. North Korea does have ICBM’s capable of delivering a nuclear warhead


3. North Korea possesses the technology and the ability to deploy an EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) weapon


4. Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM’s) are in North Korea’s arsenal


5. Two satellites (Kwangmyongsang-3 and Kwangmyongsang-4) are currently orbiting the earth, and each satellite passes over the United States several times per day


6. The possibility exists that the satellites are carrying/have been fitted with an EMP weapon


7. The central focus of North Korea’s strategic doctrine regarding nuclear war is geared toward an EMP strike

This is part of that article that shows how science and stupidity go together, as follows:

In July, it test-fired two ICBMs that experts say they believe are capable of reaching many parts of the U.S. mainland. 

“The Kim regime made the strategic decision to develop a nuclear armed ICBM that can strike the United States,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Woman’s University in Seoul.

“It is in a sprint to deploy that capability, because it wants the world to recognize it before returning to diplomatic talks, and before sanctions become unbearable.” However, analysts have been divided on whether North Korea could shrink a nuclear warhead to fit on the tip of a missile. Many also remain skeptical about whether a North Korean warhead can survive the strain of re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere.

Skepticism will vanish when the power suddenly fails across the United States.  The North Koreans can reach the U.S. mainland with a missile, and it will survive reentry. 

They can do this, and they will…only it will not come in the form of air-raid sirens blaring and people scurrying to the basements of buildings (as Fallout Shelters don’t exist anymore).  Here is the form that it will take. This is the real “kicker” that was just released Sunday by North Korea’s state-run news agency, reported on Daily Mail and if falls in line with the items just mentioned:

“North Korea’s state news agency warned that the weapon ‘is a multifunctional thermonuclear nuke with great destructive power which can be detonated even at high altitudes for super-powerful EMP attack.”

This falls in line with the warnings of Dr. Peter Pry, the head of the Committee to brief Congress on EMP threats against the U.S., the warnings of former Congressman Roscoe Bartlett (R, MD), and a slew of other with access to detailed information on North Korea’s nuclear capabilities.  When asked if the military option is on the table on Sunday, September 3rd, President Trump responded with, “We’ll see.”

No, ‘We the People’ will see it, but he will not, except on television.  He will be in a bunker a mile underground, or in an area far removed from what happens in the moment of decisive action or the aftermath.  There’s a good chance that nobody will ever see it coming.  Remember: The North Koreans launched a missile that flew directly over Japan!  This excerpt is from AP News on September 1st and summarizes “Japanese readiness” in a nutshell:

“Japan has a two-step missile defense system, including interceptors on destroyers in the Sea of Japan that would shoot down projectiles mid-flight and if that fails, surface-to-air PAC-3s on land.”

So, with that “protection,” why didn’t they shoot down the North Korean missile fired right over them last Monday?  Maybe they were waiting for “Mothra” to stop it.

In any event, it appears the President is going to pursue a military option, as can be implied within his words.  This also comes from the Wall Street Journal article:

“North Korea is a rogue nation which has become a great threat and embarrassment to China, which is trying to help but with little success.”

He also added: “South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!”

What might that “one thing” be?  Whatever happens, you can be certain that if we initiate an attack, North Korea will have allies, as China has already informed the world.  The bottom line is that if you personally have not prepared and formulated a plan if things kick off, then you’re long in the tooth.  Don’t remain in denial that the worst can happen, and take the initiative.  It’s better to be prepared and be “wrong” every day than to be unprepared just once and have the worst come to pass on that day.

The next world war will be initiated with an EMP weapon detonated over the U.S., followed by a nuclear exchange and conventional warfare.

Chinese Scientists Warn North Korea's Nuke Test Site At Risk Of Imploding, "Releasing Many Bad Things"

Earlier we showed the shocking satellite images showing numerous landslides aound the mountain that is North Korea"s nuclear test site, and it appears Chinese officials are also keeping a very close eye on the region, instigating "emergency monitoring" for radiation leaks as the former chairman of the China Nuclear Society warns of the potential for a massive environmental disaster.

As SHTFplan.com"s Mac Slavo notes, we already know that North Korea has the capability of not only firing Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles that could strike major U.S. cities, but that they have the nuclear technology to make any such attack absolutely devastating.

Weapons of Mass Destruction, electro-magnetic pulse weapons and World War III aside, however, the South China Morning Post reports that another danger lurks just below the mountain where North Korea has been testing their nuclear devices.

A total of at least six nuclear device tests have reportedly taken place in North Korea and Chinese seismologists have been able to pinpoint their locations to within 100 meters.

(January 2016 Blast Site – via The Daily Signal)

(The September 2017 blast took place in the same location – Via Norsar)

It turns out that all of the tests occurred under the same mountain and scientists are now warning that it could implode, leaving a massive hole that would leak deadly radiation across the entire region, including China:

Wang Naiyan, the former chairman of the China Nuclear Society and senior researcher on China’s nuclear weapons programme, said that if Wen’s findings were reliable, there was a risk of a major environmental disaster.

Another test might cause the whole mountain to cave in on itself, leaving only a hole from which radiation could escape and drift across the region, including China, he said.

 

“We call it ‘taking the roof off’. If the mountain collapses and the hole is exposed, it will let out many bad things.”

 

Sunday’s blast was followed by an earthquake eight minutes later, which China’s seismic authorities interpreted as a cave-in triggered by the explosion.

 

Source: South China Morning Post

If the results are accurate - which we now know they are judging by the satellite images - then there has already been a partial implosion of the mountain, though the radiation released during recent nuclear tests remains contained. At least we think it is still contained.

Close-up of slope between North Portal and mountain peak showing multiple landslides before:

And after:

With North Korea planning even more tests, China has reason to be worried.

"The increasing size of North Korea’s nuclear bombs was also making "topping" more likely," Wang said.

 

“A 100 kiloton bomb is a relatively large bomb. The North Korean government should stop the tests as they pose a huge threat not only to North Korea but to other countries, especially China,” he said.

As we’ve seen with Fukushima, radiation could force long-term evacuations of thousands of square miles and cause deadly consequences for people living downwind of any potential leak.

The theory sounds reasonable. And whether or not its true, it certainly gives China a solid position from which to negotiate North Korea’s nuclear disarmament.

If this report continues to gain traction - and the satellite images we showed earlier appear to confirm it -  then North Korea’s weapons testing is no longer just a geo-political military problem, but rather, has the potential for a massive humanitarian crisis, something that both East and West could use to further pressure the North’s leader Kim Jong Un in an effort to avoid widespread nuclear conflict.

South Korea Holds Ballistic Missile Drill "Targeting North Korea Nuclear Test Site"

As has become custom, shortly after North Korea engages in some provocative activity, in this case its first ever hyrdogen bomb test, South Korea has traditionally responded with its own military drill, and today was no difference, with Yonhap reporting "that South Korea"s military said Monday it conducted a combined live-fire exercise targeting North Korea"s nuclear test site."

To be sure, it"s not exactly clear how a "drill" can "target" a foreign military site, but we"ll assume someone just used Google translate in this case.

As Yonhap adds, the training came in response to the North"s sixth nuclear test a day earlier, and involved the country"s Hyunmoo ballistic missile and the F-15K fighter jets.

In the drill, the Hyunmoo surface-to-surface missile and the F-15K"s long-range air-to-ground missile accurately hit designated targets in the East Sea, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).

The South"s military, in particular, said the range to the simulated targets were set in consideration of the North"s Punggye-ri nuclear test site in its northeastern province.

The Hyunmoo was unveiled for the first time one week ago, when South Korea released the following video clip showing the test-firing of the 500-kilometer-range ballistic missile.

China Raises Radiation Threat Level, Begins "Emergency Monitoring" Along North Korean Border

Shortly after North Korea conducted what’s believed to be its first successful test of a hydrogen bomb (and its sixth nuclear test in total), China’s Nuclear Safety Administration said on Sunday that it would begin emergency monitoring for radiation along its northeastern border with North Korea, according to Reuters.

The emergency response was set at “level 2,” the second-highest grade on a four-tier system, according to the Times of Japan. The NSA did not indicate whether any radiation had been detected.

“’At present, the automatic radiation monitoring stations in the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and Shandong are functioning properly,’ Xinhua reported, citing the Ministry of Environmental Protection, which administers the safety agency.”

Earlier in the day, the presidents of China and Russia agreed to “appropriately deal with” North Korea’s sixth and most powerful nuclear test, according to the South China Morning Post. Beijing strongly condemned Pyongyang’s actions and threatened to work with the United Nation’s Security Council to add sanctions. The agreement came as Chinese President Xi Jinping met his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Sunday night in Xiamen, Fujian province, ahead of Monday’s BRICS leaders’ summit, according to the SCMP.

The test late Sunday morning triggered a 6.3-magnitude quake followed by a 4.6-magnitude tremor, and was felt throughout northeastern China.

Here’s more from the SCMP:

“The Chinese government resolutely opposes and strongly condemns this,” the Chinese foreign ministry said after North Korea confirmed the test.

“We urge North Korea to recognise the determination of the international community to achieve a denuclearised Korean peninsula … and to return to the path of resolving conflicts through dialogue,” it said adding that China will continue to implement UN sanctions against Pyongyang in ‘comprehensive manner.’”

As one analyst who spoke with the SCMP suggested, the North may have timed its nuclear test to coincide with the BRICS conference that begins tomorrow in Xiamen. World leaders from some of the world’s largest emerging-market countries have traveled to China for the conference, and by testing the nuke Sunday, not only did the North overshadow the conference, which was supposed to be about economic issues, but it also provided world leaders with a first-hand look at its nuclear capabilities.

"We'll See" Trump Responds Asked If He'll Attack N.Korea, May Halt Trade With Any Country Doing Business With Kim

After President Trump condemned North Korea"s "hostile and dangerous" actions this morning, hours after the rogue state"s 6th nuclear test, and according to the Kim regime first test of a hydrogen bomb, the press wanted to know one thing: will the US attack North Korea? "We"ll see," Trump responded, leaving church when a press pooler shouted a question about if he plans to attack North Korea. Earlier, commenting on Twitter, Trump called the country "a rogue nation which has become a great threat and embarrassment to China, which is trying to help but with little success", although that statement too failed to provide clarity into what the next tactical step could be.

As reported shortly after midnight ET, the latest North Korean provocation reinforced the danger facing America, Trump had said earlier in a series of tweets, adding that "talk of appeasement" is pointless. "They only understand one thing!" Trump wrote, without elaboration, as he prepared to meet later with his national security team. It was the first nuclear test since Trump took office in January.

The precise strength of the explosion, described by state-controlled media in North Korea as a hydrogen bomb, has yet to be determined. According to the AP, South Korea"s weather agency said the artificial earthquake caused by the explosion was five times to six times stronger than tremors generated by the North"s previous five such tests. The impact reportedly shook buildings in China and in Russia.

And while Trump decides to what the proper course of action is, his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was busy calling counterparts in Asia, while Steven Mnuchin, said he was putting together proposed new sanctions for Trump to consider that would seek to cut off trade with North Korea, although as we said earlier, it"s unclear what kind of penalties might make a difference. Lassina Zerbo, head of the U.N. test ban treaty organization agreed, saying that sanctions already imposed against North Korea aren"t working.

Last month, Trump warned that the U.S. military was "locked and loaded, should North Korea act unwisely" and that the U.S. would unleash "fire and fury" on the North if it continued to threaten America. The bellicose words followed threats from North Korea to launch ballistic missiles toward the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam, intending to create "enveloping fire" near the military hub that"s home to U.S. bombers. So far, Kim has called Trump"s bluff every single time, without any retaliation besides just more jawboning by the US president, which considering a direct response by N. Korea to a US attack could result in millions of dead South Koreans, is probably not the worst outcome.

Meanwhile, as Trump lashed out at North Korea on twitter this morning, while China remains by far the North"s biggest trading partner, Trump appeared to be more critical of South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who has attempted to reach out to the North. To that point, the WSJ reported yesterday that the White House was weighing withdrawing from a five-year-old bilateral trade pact known as KORUS, with a decision set to come as soon as this coming week, according to people familiar with the matter

"South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!" Trump said.

Shortly after noon ET, Trump underscored the threat of trade war involving both South Korea and China, when he tweeted "The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea."

The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2017

He also said that he will be meeting "General Kelly, General Mattis and other military leaders at the White House to discuss North Korea. Thank you."

I will be meeting General Kelly, General Mattis and other military leaders at the White House to discuss North Korea. Thank you.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2017

Meanwhile, China"s Xinhua News Agency said President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, meeting on the sidelines of a Beijing-led economic summit, agreed "to adhere to the goal of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, have close communication and coordination and properly respond" to the test.

While leaders of superpowers were moving slowly, regional concerns were at breaking point: South Korea held a National Security Council meeting chaired by Moon. Officials in Seoul said Trump"s national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, spoke with his South Korean counterpart for 20 minutes about an hour after the detonation. Japan"s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called the test "absolutely unacceptable."

Nuclear tests are crucial to perfecting sophisticated technologies and to demonstrating to the world that claims of nuclear prowess are not merely a bluff. The North claimed the device it tested was a thermonuclear weapon, also known as a hydrogen bomb. That could be hard to independently confirm. It said the underground test site did not leak radioactive materials, which would make such a determination even harder.

At the same time, the simple power of the blast was convincing. Japan"s Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said it might have been as powerful as 70 kilotons. North Korea"s previous largest was thought to be anywhere from 10 to 30 kilotons. "We cannot deny it was an H-bomb test," Onodera said.

Even before this morning"s H-bomb test, the AP reported that Japan was debating whether to develop a limited pre-emptive strike capability and buy cruise missiles, ideas that were anathema in the pacifist country before the North Korea missile threat. With revisions to Japan"s defense plans underway, ruling party hawks are accelerating the moves, and some defense experts say Japan should at least consider them.

After being on the backburner in the ruling party for decades, a possibility of pre-emptive strike was formally proposed to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe by his party"s missile defense panel in March, prompting parliamentary debate, though somewhat lost steam as Abe apparently avoided the divisive topic after seeing support ratings for his scandal-laden government plunge.

"Should we possess pre-emptive strike capability?" liberal-leaning Mainichi newspaper asked the following day. "But isn"t it too reckless to jump to discuss a "get them before they get you" approach?"

Following the latest, most powerful nuclear test, Japan"s resolve for a preemptive strike will only strengthen further.

Meanwhile, more is likely to come from North Korea.  Just before Sunday"s test, according to state media, Kim and the other senior leaders at the party presidium meeting discussed "detailed ways and measures for containing the U.S. and other hostile forces" vicious moves for sanctions." The photos released earlier showed Kim talking with his lieutenants as he observed a silver, peanut-shaped device that the state-run media said was designed to be mounted on the North"s "Hwasong-14" ICBM. The North claims the device was made domestically and has explosive power that can range from tens to hundreds of kilotons. For context, the bomb dropped on Hiroshima by the U.S. had a 15-kiloton yield.

Of course, the biggest concern to date is that not only are options to pressure Pyongyang limited, but the Kim regime seems to be growing more bold with every unanswered provocation. Further economic and trade sanctions, increased diplomatic pressure and boosting military maneuvers or shows of force would likely all be on the table. Which is why we expect that following today"s meeting between Trump and Kelly, General and "other military leaders", the sequence of events involing US military intervention in North Korea will finally start to move.

Three Dangerous Delusions About Korea

Authored by James George Jatras via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

They say that most of the world’s real dangers arise not because of what people don’t know but because of what they do "know" that just ain’t so.

As a case in point, consider three things about Korea that the bipartisan Washington establishment seems quite sure of but are far removed from reality:

Delusion 1: All options, including U.S. military force, are «on the table.»

- Everyone knows there are no military «options» the U.S. could use against North Korea that don’t result in disaster. The prospect that a «surgical strike» could «take out» (a muscular-sounding term much loved by laptop bombardiers) Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile capabilities is a fiction. Already impractical when considered against a country like Iran, no one believes a limited attack could eliminate North Korea’s ability to strike back, hard. At risk would be not only almost 30,000 U.S. troops in Korea but 25 million people in the Seoul metropolitan area, not to mention many more lives at risk in the rest of South Korea and perhaps Japan.

- Hence, any contemplated U.S. preemptive strike would have to be massive from the start, imposing a ghastly cost on North Koreans (do their lives count?) but still running the risk that anything less than total success would mean a devastating retaliation. That’s not even taking into account possible actions of other countries, notably China’s response to an American attack on their detestable buffer state.

Delusion 2: North Korea must be denuclearized.

- Whether anyone likes it or not, North Korea is a nuclear weapons state outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and will remain so. Kim Jong-un learned the lessons of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. Because Kim has weapons of mass destruction, especially nukes, he gets to stay alive and in power. If he gives them up, he can look forward to dancing the Tyburn jig or getting sodomized with a bayonet, then shot. That’s not a difficult choice.

Delusion 3: If the U.S. presses China hard enough, Beijing will solve the problem for us.

- There is no combination of U.S. sanctions, threats, or pressures that will make Beijing take steps that are fundamentally contrary to China’s vital national security interests. (Here, the «vital national security» of China means just that, not the way U.S. policymakers routinely abuse the term to mean anything they don’t like even if it has nothing to do with American security, much less with America’s survival.) Aside from speculation (which is all it is) that China could seek to engineer an internal coup to overthrow Kim in favor of a puppet administration, maintaining the current odious regime is Beijing’s only option if they don’t want to face the prospect of having on their border a reunited Korean peninsula under a government allied with Washington.

- After Moscow’s experience with the expansion of NATO following the 1990 reunification of Germany, why would Beijing take credibly any assurances from Washington (of which there is no indication anyway) not to expand into a vacuum created by a collapse of North Korea? Quite to the contrary, it has been suggested that if China refuses to deal with the North Korea problem on Washington’s behalf, then the U.S. would do it on its terms, presenting Beijing (in the description of former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton) with «regime collapse, huge refugee flows and U.S. flags flying along the Yalu River.» Adds Bolton, «China can do it the easier way or the harder way: It’s their choice. Time is growing short.» If under such a scenario U.S. forces end up on China’s border, suggests Bolton, they wouldn’t be leaving anytime soon. Don’t be so sure. In 1950, the last time American forces were on the Yalu River, they weren’t there very long when hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers crossed into Korea. Keep in mind that happened when China didn’t have nuclear weapons but the U.S. did.

The seemingly weekly rise and fall of the decibel level of bellicose rhetoric coming out of Washington and Pyongyang obscures the realities behind these three delusions. Little change can be expected from Pyongyang, whose policy at least has the virtue of simplicity: «if you do anything bad to us, we’ll do something really, really bad to you.»

So then, what are the prospects Washington could jump off the hamster wheel and come up with something besides threats and sanctions? The omens are not auspicious. Just before he left the White House, Steve Bannon violated the taboo surrounding Delusion 1: «Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that ten million people in Seoul don"t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons, I don"t know what you"re talking about, there"s no military solution here, they got us.» Then he was gone.

But let’s be optimistic. There have been reports of direct «back channel» contacts between North Korea and the U.S. at the United Nations in New York. Even Bolton suggests that some kind of accommodation could be made to China in the form of a pullback of U.S. forces down to the south, near Pusan, so as to be still «available for rapid deployment across Asia.» (Certainly, that’s one idea. Here’s a better one: how about getting us out of Korea entirely and not having Americans available for deployment across Asia?)

The definitive clarification should have been the Beijing-based Global Times editorial of August 10, 2017 («Reckless game over the Korean Peninsula runs risk of real war»), universally seen as reflecting the position of the Chinese government:

«China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten U.S. soil first and the U.S. retaliates, China will stay neutral. If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so».

That means that if Kim attacks the U.S., he’s on his own. If we attack Kim, we’re at war with China. In the latter case, while Russia would not likely directly join the fray we can be sure Moscow would provide China total support short of belligerency. Put mildly, this would not be in the American interest.

There is one, and only one overriding priority that should now guide U.S. policy on Korea. It’s not regime change in North Korea – despite that regime’s loathsomeness – or even the wellbeing of South Korea or Japan. It’s avoiding Kim’s developing a missile system capable of delivering a nuclear weapon to the United States. How close North Korea might be to such a capability is the subject of wildly conflicting estimations. (Regarding the American lives hung out on the DMZ, there’s a simple solution to ensuring their safety – get them the hell out of there.)

But what about South Korea and Japan? Our «alliances» with them are a fiction. The U.S. guarantees their security but other than cooperating on the defense of their own territory they do nothing to safeguard ours, nor can they. The U.S. derives no benefit in continuing to make ourselves a target on account of a place that’s more than five thousand miles from the American mainland.

It’s time that «America First!» meant something. As a start, Washington could take seriously Beijing’s proposal for a double-freeze. On the one hand, Pyongyang would suspend its nuclear and missile programs, in particular halting tests of weapons with potential intercontinental range. Washington and Seoul would suspend joint military exercises, including practicing so-called «decapitation strikes« aimed at North Korea’s leadership.

If protecting our own territory and people is American officials’ top priority, and not, as they implausibly claim, «regime change» in North Korea, it’s hard to see why a double-freeze would not be a sensible first step. It would be largely up to China to see that the North Koreans complied with their part of the deal. If they did, perhaps it could lead towards a long-overdue settlement of this Cold War-era standoff and, in time, a reunited, neutral Korea. If not, all bets are off – but we’d be hardly worse off than we are now.

Professor Explains Why We Can't Pre-emptively Strike North Korea: "North Would Turn South Into A Desert"

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Following North Korea’s recent missile test, which ominously flew over Japan, the specter of war with the hotheaded nation was raised once again.

As time goes on, it seems less and less likely that the Kim regime will back down from its nuclear program. All forms of diplomacy and appeasement have failed, and not even threats of war from the US seem to have an effect on the regime.

There’s a very good reason for that. North Korea knows something that the United States, the most powerful nation on the planet, would absolutely hate to admit. Our country is is no position to engage in a preemptive strike on north Korea, because any attack would result in unimaginable devastation. The days when Americans would tolerate massive war casualties over a short period of time are long gone, and North Korea knows it. There simply isn’t anything we can offer or threaten that will stop their nuclear program.

And that’s understandable once you know how much destruction North Korea could really bring about if the Kim regime ever decided to let its military loose on South Korea.

If the current situation in East Asia is not resolved, a number of countries “will be living under a threat of a nuclear volcano erupting,” Russian diplomat and an expert in Asian studies, professor Georgy Toloraya told RT.com.

Everyone understands perfectly well that for North Korea, if it initiates an aggressive strike, a military conflict will mean a complete and immediate destruction, because no one can deny the US military might,” Toloraya said.

“However, for the US, attempts to solve this problem militarily also bring on a retaliatory strike by North Korea that would turn South Korea into a desert,” he warned, saying the North doesn’t even need nuclear weapons for that.

While Pyongyang’s artillery is able to reach Seoul, the entire territory of South Korea will also “be no good for life,” as Pyongyang’s missiles – even without nuclear warheads – might hit nuclear facilities in the South, he explained. He said there are some 30 such sites close to North Korea’s border.

Obviously, the destruction of nuclear facilities could have more of an impact than any other attack, by causing widespread radiation leaks. If anything, it could be more devastating than dropping a nuclear weapon, since the radioactive materials in these facilities often have a significantly longer half-life than what we see in atomic bombs.

It’s threats like that which make it clear that no military option is capable of reigning in North Korea. That’s a sentiment that former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon expressed earlier this month.

Contrary to Trump’s threat of fire and fury, Bannon said: “There’s no military solution [to North Korea’s nuclear threats], forget it. Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that ten million people in Seoul don’t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons, I don’t know what you’re talking about, there’s no military solution here, they got us.”

And let’s not forget that North Korea has one of the largest chemical weapon stockpiles in the world, and is suspected of maintaining a bio-weapons program since the 1960’s. Given those possibilities, Bannon’s belief that North Korea could kill ten million people may be a gross understatement, and that doesn’t even consider the chances that war with North Korea could trigger another world war.

It’s time to accept the truth. We can bargain with the Kim regime, appease it, threaten it, and lay down sanctions on it, but nothing will actually stop that government from continuing its nuclear program without causing mass casualties. The only thing we can do is try to keep a lid on that country until their citizens rebel, or until the Chinese decide that they’ve had enough with their ally.

Nikki Haley: "Something Serious Has To Happen... Enough Is Enough"

While we are confident that both Trump and Kim would be delighted to just keep trading insults at each other for the indefinite future, even as North Korea launches the occasional ballistic missile, that time may be over. Speaking at the UN, the US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said on Tuesday that North Korea’s launch of a missile over Japan was “absolutely unacceptable and irresponsible” and that the Security Council now needed to take serious action.

“No country should have missiles flying over them like those 130 million people in Japan. It’s unacceptable,” Haley told reporters. North Korea has “violated every single U.N. Security Council resolution that we’ve had and so I think something serious has to happen,” she added, quoted by Reuters.

Saying “enough is enough,” Haley said she hoped China and Russia would continue to work with the rest of the U.N. Security Council when it meets on Tuesday afternoon to discuss what more can be done about North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.

Of course, even if Russia and China do side with the rest of the Security Council as they did during the recent sanctions vote, it is unclear just what additional economic punishments and "harsh language" the UN can impose on the Kim regime to prevent him from doing what he has been merrily doing so far, oblivious of the consequences.

15,000 Nuclear Weapons In The World - Mapping Who Has What

Between North Korea’s constant nuclear test provocations and the recent “fire and fury” comments by President Trump, concerns about nuclear conflict are re-ignited around the world.

So, how many nuclear weapons are there, and what exactly is happening right now? Let’s launch into it.

WHO HAS ACCESS TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS?

As VisualCapitalist"s map above demonstrates, the United States and Russia still maintain the world’s largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons, holding 92% of the world’s estimated 15,000 nuclear warheads.

While today’s arsenals seem quite excessive, they are actually quite modest compared to historical totals such as those during the Cold War. In 1986, for example, there were actually 70,300 nuclear weapons globally – but luckily for us, the number of warheads has eased down over time as countries disarm more weapons.

Will this number of warheads continue to slide down as a result of increased international cooperation? The Brookings Institution has grouped the nine countries with nuclear arsenals into categories that identify prospective entrants to the global arms control regime:

Any advancement of multilateral arms control, such as a treaty limiting limiting nuclear weapons, would likely take place between these countries.

MAPPING NUCLEAR SITES WITHIN THE UNITED STATES

Thanks to various arms reduction agreements, thousands of nuclear warheads have been retired. That said, warheads are still stored in a number of sites around the continental United States. The map below also highlights laboratories and interstate shipping routes. (Yes, nuclear weapons are apparently shipped in big rigs.)

THE WILD CARD: NORTH KOREA

The Hermit Kingdom is a relatively minor player in the nuclear weapon ecosystem, but they have been capturing the world’s attention. Under Kim Jong Un, North Korea has dramatically ramped up the frequency of missile tests, with 17 confirmed launches so far in 2017.

Here’s a look at the country’s arsenal of nuclear weapons, along with ranges of specific weapons.

More than a decade has passed since North Korea detonated its first nuclear weapon, and the country is now believed to be capable of intercontinental ballistic missile delivery. This, combined with aggressive rhetoric from North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, has forced the Trump administration to take their threats more seriously.

That said, experts suggest that recent provocations aren’t much different from previous periods of tension between the two countries, and that the risk of an actual conflict is overblown.

North Korea’s comments are clearly deterrent in nature, and the Guam ‘threat’ was exactly along those lines.

– David Kang, director, Korean Studies Institute, USC

Either way, while the prospect of an all-out war is unlikely – the war of words between North Korea and the United States is likely destined to continue.

James Rickards Warns "War Is Almost Inevitable"

Authord by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

All three major stock indexes were deep in the red last week, and volatility spiked for the first time in months as the war clouds gather over the Korean Peninsula.

Here’s the latest tweet from President Trump:

Here’s another from two days ago, equally as subtle:

Markets still have not come to terms with the very real potential of a shooting war with North Korea over its nuclear program.

President Trump, Secretary of State Tillerson and Defense Secretary Mattis have all made it clear that a nuclear-armed North Korea with ICBMs that can hit the United States will not be allowed.

If North Korea persists, this means war with the U.S. There’s only one problem: North Korea thinks we’re bluffing.

North Korea believes that the U.S. is bluffing based in part on the prior failures of the U.S. to back up “red line” declarations in Syria over its alleged use of chemical weapons. Their belief is also based on the horrendous damage that would be inflicted on South Korea.

China also believes the U.S. is bluffing.

A major Chinese think tank analyst with government connections named Liu Ming says,

“The military option the Americans are threatening won’t likely happen because the stakes will be too high. It’s a pretext and an excuse to pile up pressure on China. It’s more like blackmail than a realistic option.”

This is how wars begin: not because anyone wants a war, but because two sides misread each other’s intentions and stumble into one.

Make no mistake — Trump is not bluffing. He’s deadly serious about ending the threat from North Korea. And he has support within the national security community.

Defense Secretary James Mattis added Wednesday that North Korea “should cease any consideration of actions that will lead to the end of the regime and destruction of its people.”

Four-star Gen. Terrence J. O’Shaughnessy, commander of all air forces in the Pacific, said the U.S. would use “rapid, lethal and overwhelming force” against North Korea if necessary.

This comes as North Korea has threatened to attack the American territory of Guam, which is home to several key U.S. naval and air installations.

Meanwhile, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said, “The time for talk is over. The danger the North Korean regime poses… is now clear to all.”

You can’t get much more explicit than that.

The American people and citizens around the world are being told in no uncertain terms that a war with North Korea is coming unless North Korea ends its nuclear program. Yet North Korea will not end its weapons program. They consider these weapons indispensable to the survival of the regime.

Therefore, war is almost inevitable.

This war is coming in mid-2018, if not sooner. Markets have not priced in this outcome. When markets do adjust to the reality of war, it could result in one of the worst market meltdowns of all time.

Don’t wait until next year when everyone else will see this clearly. The time to prepare is now.

You can make your portfolio shockproof by reducing stock exposures and increasing allocations to cash, gold, silver, museum-quality collectibles and land.