US And South Korea To Conduct Massive Air Force Exercise Aimed At North Korea

Via TheAntiMedia.org,

The U.S. and South Korea announced Friday they will conduct a massive air force exercise over the Korean Peninsula next month as a notable show of force targeting North Korea - despite warnings that the Trump administration’s decision earlier this week to add North Korea to the United States’ list of state sponsors of terrorism could further provoke the isolated country.

Six F-22 Raptor stealth fighters—which are among the world’s most advanced warplanes—will be sent to South Korea for the drill, a U.S. Air Force spokesman told AFP, which reports:

The massive five-day annual exercise comes as Washington pushes what President Donald Trump has called a “maximum pressure campaign” against Pyongyang over its nuclear program.

 

The exercise, named Vigilant Ace, starts on December 4 with 12,000 U.S. personnel and an unspecified number of South Korean airmen flying more than 230 aircraft at eight U.S. and South Korean military bases.

Reuters reports that U.S. Marine Corps and Navy troops will also participate in the exercise.

Although the drill is conducted annually, it comes as U.S. President Donald Trump continues to antagonize North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on the world stage.

As Common Dreams reported this week, after Trump designated North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism on Monday, the North Korean Central News Agency called the decision a “serious provocation,” and warned that “our army and people are full of rage and anger toward the heinous gangsters” who made the decision.

Concerns about the escalating conflict, and the Trump administration’s vocal opposition to engaging in diplomatic discussions with North Korea, continue to rise in the U.S. as well as among North Korea’s neighbors, particularly South Korea.

When Trump visited Asia earlier this month, South Koreans greeted him with massive protests - denouncing him as a “war-threatening, weapons salesman” - while Pyongyang claimed the president “begged for war” during his trip.

White House Declares North Korea A State Sponsor Of Terror

Following comments by the White House last week that the administration would soon bring more pressure on North Korea, President Donald Trump has confirmed as much to a crowd of reporters, adding that, as of today, that North Korea would once again be designated a terror sponsor.

Trump cited the killing of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un"s estranged half brother in a Malaysian airport earlier this year, as well as the North’s horrific treatment of Ohio college student Otto Warmbier, as justifications for the sanctions.

“North Korea has supported acts of international terrorism, including assassinations on foreign soil,” Trump said.

“As we take this action today we think of Otto Warmbier and the many others affected by north korean opporession."

During remarks at the start of a cabinet meeting at the White House, Trump said the Treasury Department will announce on Tuesday additional sanctions against North Korea, describing the moves as “a very large one.” The sanctions will be imposed over the next two weeks, Trump said.

Trump demanded that the North cease its nuclear program and stop aiding terror groups across the world.

Trump called the move a long overdue step and part of the U.S. "maximum pressure campaign" against the North...

 

United States designates North Korea as a state sponsor of terror.

Pres. Trump: "Should have happened a long time ago, should have happened years ago." pic.twitter.com/3GC5Umcd4S

— Dan Linden (@DanLinden) November 20, 2017

 

North Korea was last on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terror in 2008, when the country was removed in a bid to salvage a deal to halt its nuclear development. Iran, Sudan and Syria are also designated by the U.S. as state sponsors of terror, the Associated Press pointed out.

The designation had been debated for months inside the administration, with some officials at the State Department arguing that the North did not meet the legal standard to be relisted as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Officials said there was no debate over whether the slaying of half brother Kim Jong Nam was a terrorist act. However, lawyers said there had to be more than one incident and there was disagreement over whether the treatment of Warmbier, who died of injuries suffered in North Korean custody, constituted terrorism.

While North Korea is being added to the list, last week, Deputy Secretary of State John J. Sullivan said the United States was willing to consider removing Sudan, which has been on the list since 1993.
 

Libya: The Forgotten Reason North Korea Desperately Wants Nuclear Weapons

Authored by Ted Galen Carpenter via The National Interest,

The United States and its allies continue to cajole and threaten North Korea to negotiate an agreement that would relinquish its growing nuclear and ballistic-missile programs.

The latest verbal prodding came from President Trump during his joint press conference with South Korean president Moon Jae-in. Trump urged Pyongyang to “come to the negotiating table,” and asserted that it “makes sense for North Korea to do the right thing.” The “right thing” Trump and his predecessors have always maintained, is for North Korea to become nonnuclear.

It is unlikely that the DPRK will ever return to nuclear virginity. Pyongyang has multiple reasons for retaining its nukes. For a country with an economy roughly the size of Paraguay’s, a bizarre political system that has no external appeal, and an increasingly antiquated conventional military force, a nuclear-weapons capability is the sole factor that provides prestige and a seat at the table of international affairs. There is one other crucial reason for the DPRK’s truculence, though. North Korean leaders simply do not trust the United States to honor any agreement that might be reached.

Unfortunately, there are ample reasons for such distrust.

North Korean leaders have witnessed how the United States treats nonnuclear adversaries such as Serbia and Iraq. But it was the U.S.-led intervention in Libya in 2011 that underscored to Pyongyang why achieving and retaining a nuclear-weapons capability might be the only reliable way to prevent a regime-change war directed against the DPRK.

Partially in response to Washington’s war that ousted Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in the spring of 2003, ostensibly because of a threat posed by Baghdad’s “weapons of mass destruction,” Libyan leader Muammar el-Qaddafi seemed to capitulate regarding such matters. He signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in December of that year and agreed to abandon his country’s embryonic nuclear program. In exchange, the United States and its allies lifted economic sanctions and pledged that they no longer sought to isolate Libya.

Qaddafi was welcomed back into the international community once he relinquished his nuclear ambitions.

That reconciliation lasted less than a decade. When one of the periodic domestic revolts against Qaddafi’s rule erupted again in 2011, Washington and its NATO partners argued that a humanitarian catastrophe was imminent (despite meager evidence of that scenario), and initiated a military intervention. It soon became apparent that the official justification to protect innocent civilians was a cynical pretext, and that another regime-change war was underway. The Western powers launched devastating air strikes and cruise-missile attacks against Libyan government forces. NATO also armed rebel units and assisted the insurgency in other ways.

Although all previous revolts had fizzled, extensive Western military involvement produced a very different result this time. The insurgents not only overthrew Qaddafi, they captured, tortured and executed him in an especially grisly fashion. Washington’s response was astonishingly flippant. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton quipped: “We came, we saw, he died.”

The behavior of Washington and its allies in Libya certainly did not give any incentive to North Korea or other would-be nuclear powers to abandon such ambitions in exchange for U.S. paper promises for normal relations. Indeed, North Korea promptly cited the Libya episode as a reason why it needed a deterrent capability—a point that Pyongyang has reiterated several times in the years since Muammar el-Qaddafi ouster. There is little doubt that the West’s betrayal of Qaddafi has made an agreement with the DPRK to denuclearize even less attainable than it might have been otherwise. Even some U.S. officials concede that the Libya episode convinced North Korean leaders that nuclear weapons were necessary for regime survival.

The foundation for successful diplomacy is a country’s reputation for credibility and reliability. U.S. leaders fret that autocratic regimes—such as those in Iran and North Korea—might well violate agreements they sign. There are legitimate reasons for wariness, although in Iran’s case, the government appears to be complying with its obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that Tehran signed with the United States and other major powers in 2015—despite allegations from U.S. hawks about violations.

When it comes to problems with credibility, though, U.S. leaders also need to look in the mirror. Washington’s conduct in Libya was a case of brazen duplicity. It is hardly a surprise if North Korea (or other countries) now regard the United States as an untrustworthy negotiating partner. Because of Pyongyang’s other reasons for wanting a nuclear capability, a denuclearization accord was always a long shot. But U.S. actions in Libya reduced prospects to the vanishing point. American leaders have only themselves to blame for that situation.

Road To World War 3 Unveiled: Is China Planning To Deploy Its Army Against North Korea?

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

New photos of a recent highway construction in China could be part of a contingency plan to invade North Korea or amass a huge army on their shared border.

Experts fear this newly uncovered plot could stoke the fires of World War 3, inevitably involving the United States.

According to The Express UK, communist China has traditionally been North Korea’s closest ally, but Kim Jong-un’s continued nuclear and ballistic missile tests have tested Beijing’s patience on the rising tensions worldwide. These new revelations also come as North Korea was spotted transporting 30 Scud missiles from Hwangju, south of the capital Pyongyang, to Nampo, on the Korea Bay coast opposite China.

New photos have emerged and they reveal that the Communist superpower is building a six-lane highway in its desolately populated northeast on route to North Korea.

With most Chinese peasants not able to afford the luxury of a car, the construction of the G1112 Ji’an–Shuangliao Expressway, has led experts to believe it will be used for quick deployment of tanks and troops to its North Korean border.

The photos obtained by Daily Star Online show Chinese construction workers digging tunnels through the mountains and massive cranes constructing bridges over rivers.

Chinese workers construct a six lane highway to North Korea’s border.

Scott Snyder, senior fellow for Korea studies and director of the program on US-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Daily Star Online:

“China’s Jilin province has even budgeted and paid for improvements in road infrastructure inside some parts of North Korea in recent years in order to improve logistical access to the Rason port inside North Korea.”

Dean Cheng, an Asia security expert at the Heritage Foundation, a think tank in Washington, said Beijing would have a ”vast array” of contingency plans involving military options to seize Kim Jong-un’s nuclear weapons. And just last week, a highly respected security think tank warned that the threat of war between China and the US was now real. In the bombshell report, the Rand Corporation said any conflict between North Korea and South Korea and the US would quickly spiral into World War 3.

If it’s decided upon by a nation to “take out” the North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-Un, American and Chinese troops would then rush across the border in a race to take control of the tyrant’s nuclear weapons and missile facilities colliding in a clash between China and the US, effectively spawning WW3. A whopping 85% of North Korea’s nuclear facilities are believed to be located within 62 miles of the Chinese border.

China actually threatened the US with a “real war” last month. The communist nation said that Donald Trump had made a “serious miscalculation” over North Korea. Photos uncovered by a North Korean monitoring site suggested China was secretly helping Kim’s nuclear missile program. But there were other confusing and conflicting signs that North Korea may be preparing to fire missiles towards China next week.

It looks like the world is steamrolling its way to a third world war.

'Decoders' Offer Dire Warnings About North Korea's Nuclear Program

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Experts outside the United States government are using North Korea’s propaganda videos to dissect and decode the rogue regime’s nuclear program.

Decoders say that there are clues about the weapons advancement program hidden in their propaganda, and they are sounding the alarm.

A group of analysts at the Middlebury Institute’s Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California are closely studying the propaganda photos and videos put out by the North Korean regime. They then apply new tools such as satellite imagery and 3-D mapping to the videos and photos so they can learn more about how the North continues to advance their weapons in the face of sanctions and growing opposition.

The analysts are finding amazingly : information about North Korea’s military capabilities and in this , they walk us through the clues that reveal the capabilities of a North Korean missile. They will also show instances where they’ve found the North Koreans to be faking their weapons success.

The intense voices in North Korea’s videos make them seem legitimate, but the decoders have looked into what they can actually accomplish and what they cannot by simple decoding images used by the regime themselves.

Perhaps the most alarming revelation is that the decoders suggest that it’s likely that North Korea is using highly advanced machines to construct their missile components. This could make getting a powerful nuke more likely than originally thought. They also say that North Korea has a missile that can carry a warhead capable of hitting the mainland United States, “New York, LA.”

But they also point out the failures in the North Korean weapons advancement program and can identify where Kim Jong-Un is in several photos.

Professor Explains Why We Can't Pre-emptively Strike North Korea: "North Would Turn South Into A Desert"

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Following North Korea’s recent missile test, which ominously flew over Japan, the specter of war with the hotheaded nation was raised once again.

As time goes on, it seems less and less likely that the Kim regime will back down from its nuclear program. All forms of diplomacy and appeasement have failed, and not even threats of war from the US seem to have an effect on the regime.

There’s a very good reason for that. North Korea knows something that the United States, the most powerful nation on the planet, would absolutely hate to admit. Our country is is no position to engage in a preemptive strike on north Korea, because any attack would result in unimaginable devastation. The days when Americans would tolerate massive war casualties over a short period of time are long gone, and North Korea knows it. There simply isn’t anything we can offer or threaten that will stop their nuclear program.

And that’s understandable once you know how much destruction North Korea could really bring about if the Kim regime ever decided to let its military loose on South Korea.

If the current situation in East Asia is not resolved, a number of countries “will be living under a threat of a nuclear volcano erupting,” Russian diplomat and an expert in Asian studies, professor Georgy Toloraya told RT.com.

Everyone understands perfectly well that for North Korea, if it initiates an aggressive strike, a military conflict will mean a complete and immediate destruction, because no one can deny the US military might,” Toloraya said.

“However, for the US, attempts to solve this problem militarily also bring on a retaliatory strike by North Korea that would turn South Korea into a desert,” he warned, saying the North doesn’t even need nuclear weapons for that.

While Pyongyang’s artillery is able to reach Seoul, the entire territory of South Korea will also “be no good for life,” as Pyongyang’s missiles – even without nuclear warheads – might hit nuclear facilities in the South, he explained. He said there are some 30 such sites close to North Korea’s border.

Obviously, the destruction of nuclear facilities could have more of an impact than any other attack, by causing widespread radiation leaks. If anything, it could be more devastating than dropping a nuclear weapon, since the radioactive materials in these facilities often have a significantly longer half-life than what we see in atomic bombs.

It’s threats like that which make it clear that no military option is capable of reigning in North Korea. That’s a sentiment that former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon expressed earlier this month.

Contrary to Trump’s threat of fire and fury, Bannon said: “There’s no military solution [to North Korea’s nuclear threats], forget it. Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that ten million people in Seoul don’t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons, I don’t know what you’re talking about, there’s no military solution here, they got us.”

And let’s not forget that North Korea has one of the largest chemical weapon stockpiles in the world, and is suspected of maintaining a bio-weapons program since the 1960’s. Given those possibilities, Bannon’s belief that North Korea could kill ten million people may be a gross understatement, and that doesn’t even consider the chances that war with North Korea could trigger another world war.

It’s time to accept the truth. We can bargain with the Kim regime, appease it, threaten it, and lay down sanctions on it, but nothing will actually stop that government from continuing its nuclear program without causing mass casualties. The only thing we can do is try to keep a lid on that country until their citizens rebel, or until the Chinese decide that they’ve had enough with their ally.

Mapping Major US Military Bases Near North Korea

Amid rising tensions with Pyongyang, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that American forces are "locked and loaded" to respond to an attack by North Korea.

While the U.S. military presence in South Korea is well placed defensively, any offensive strike against the North would require the deployment of a huge number of military assets, and the Pentagon has confirmed that no such deployment has taken place.

As Statista"s Niall McCarthy points out, around 23,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea and nearly 40,000 more are stationed in Japan.

The following infographic provides an overview of the key U.S. military bases in the region that would prove indispensable in any conflict with North Korea.

You will find more statistics at Statista

Notable installations include Osan and Kunsan Air Bases in South Korea, where American A-10 and F-16 aircraft are permanently based. Yokosuka in Japan is home to the only permanently forward-deployed U.S. aircraft carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan.

The carrier strike group and its escorting destroyer group are some of the most potent U.S. military assets in the region.

15,000 Nuclear Weapons In The World - Mapping Who Has What

Between North Korea’s constant nuclear test provocations and the recent “fire and fury” comments by President Trump, concerns about nuclear conflict are re-ignited around the world.

So, how many nuclear weapons are there, and what exactly is happening right now? Let’s launch into it.

WHO HAS ACCESS TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS?

As VisualCapitalist"s map above demonstrates, the United States and Russia still maintain the world’s largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons, holding 92% of the world’s estimated 15,000 nuclear warheads.

While today’s arsenals seem quite excessive, they are actually quite modest compared to historical totals such as those during the Cold War. In 1986, for example, there were actually 70,300 nuclear weapons globally – but luckily for us, the number of warheads has eased down over time as countries disarm more weapons.

Will this number of warheads continue to slide down as a result of increased international cooperation? The Brookings Institution has grouped the nine countries with nuclear arsenals into categories that identify prospective entrants to the global arms control regime:

Any advancement of multilateral arms control, such as a treaty limiting limiting nuclear weapons, would likely take place between these countries.

MAPPING NUCLEAR SITES WITHIN THE UNITED STATES

Thanks to various arms reduction agreements, thousands of nuclear warheads have been retired. That said, warheads are still stored in a number of sites around the continental United States. The map below also highlights laboratories and interstate shipping routes. (Yes, nuclear weapons are apparently shipped in big rigs.)

THE WILD CARD: NORTH KOREA

The Hermit Kingdom is a relatively minor player in the nuclear weapon ecosystem, but they have been capturing the world’s attention. Under Kim Jong Un, North Korea has dramatically ramped up the frequency of missile tests, with 17 confirmed launches so far in 2017.

Here’s a look at the country’s arsenal of nuclear weapons, along with ranges of specific weapons.

More than a decade has passed since North Korea detonated its first nuclear weapon, and the country is now believed to be capable of intercontinental ballistic missile delivery. This, combined with aggressive rhetoric from North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, has forced the Trump administration to take their threats more seriously.

That said, experts suggest that recent provocations aren’t much different from previous periods of tension between the two countries, and that the risk of an actual conflict is overblown.

North Korea’s comments are clearly deterrent in nature, and the Guam ‘threat’ was exactly along those lines.

– David Kang, director, Korean Studies Institute, USC

Either way, while the prospect of an all-out war is unlikely – the war of words between North Korea and the United States is likely destined to continue.

This Is The Worst Year For North Korean Missile Test Success In 33 Years

As tensions between the United States and North Korea continue to grow, President Trump has warned "major, major conflict" between the two countries is possible. He added that he would prefer to solve the situation through diplomacy before praising Chinese President Xi Jinping, calling him "a very good man" who loves his country. The outbreak of hostilities could prove devastating for the South Korean capital, Seoul, which is targeted by thousands of artillery pieces dug in just over the border.

However, as Statista"s Niall McCarthy notes, the pressing issue continues to be the country"s ballistic missile program and its efforts to develop a nuclear warhead small enough to fit into a missile capable of striking Japan, the U.S. bases on Guam or the continental U.S. itself.

Is American concern at developments in North Korea justified?

You will find more statistics at Statista

As can be seen on the following infographic, the pace of missile testing has accelerated steeply, even though many of the launches have resulted in failure. This year alone, Pyongyang has tested 9 ballistic missiles with 5 of the tests resulting in success (including Friday"s failure), according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

2017"s mere 55% success rate is the worst since 1984"s 50% success rate.

In 2016, 24 tests were carried out - 14 were successful and 10 resulted in failure.

March Missile Madness: Odds Of A North Korean WMD Attack In Next Month Tops 60%

Authored by Marie DuMond via Beyond Parallel,

A Predata-Beyond Parallel prediction indicates there is a 43% chance of North Korean WMD activity taking place in the next 14 days. In the next 30 days, there is a 62% chance for North Korean WMD activity. Beyond Parallel defines WMD activity as nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches.

As seen below, Predata’s North Korea WMD overview signal captured a notable spike in conversations beginning on March 4, just two days prior to North Korea’s March 6 missile launches, and the signal has remained elevated since. Further, the signal’s 30-day exponential moving average started trending up on March 4, reaching its highest point in the previous 90 days on March 6. These signals indicate there are more March missile tests to come from North Korea.

(click image for interactive version)

The underlying signal for this prediction started spiking on February 28, also capturing a notable spike in conversations prior to the March 6 launches, and remaining elevated since. Indeed, the 30-day exponential average for the North Korea WMD missile test signal has been edging up since February 18.

These signal predictions are in line with, and corroborated by, other Beyond Parallel empirical studies of North Korean behavior and events on the Korean peninsula. March 1 kicked off the annual spring joint U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) military exercises to which North Korea often issues strong statements and sometimes conducts provocations. Beyond Parallel studies have found that the U.S.-ROK exercises themselves do not provoke North Korea. Rather, it is the state of U.S.-North Korea relations in the 4-8 week window prior to the joint exercise period that serves as the best indicator of North Korean behavior during these annual exercises. When U.S.-North Korea relations during this window are coded as negative then the exercise period will see a high level of provocations. And this year’s bilateral relations between the United States and North Korea have certainly been negative.

North Korea’s missile program has been rapidly developing with a fast pace of missile testing on a wide variety of missile types in recent years. To explore North Korea’s ballistic missiles in further detail, visit the CSIS Missile Defense Project.

These predictions are made possible through a Predata-CSIS Beyond Parallel collaboration seeking to bring open source intelligence tools and big data analytics to issues related to the Korean peninsula. The signals are drawn from open sources across the internet which provide a rich source of information for insights and context to current events and ongoing trends. Predata’s analytics are paired with Beyond Parallel databases of historical events to analyze current trends and make predictions about future events.