North Korean Defectors Show Signs Of Radiation Exposure

South Korean scientists and doctors who have been examining North Korean defectors have stumbled upon yet another horrifying discovery: At least four of the defectors have shown signs of radiation exposure, the South Korean government said on Wednesday - although researchers could not confirm if the radiation was related to Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program.

Earlier today, we noted that one of the defectors had also tested positive for Anthrax antibodies, suggesting that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has continued his chemical weapons program despite signing an international chemical weapons treaty. Of course, the North Korean government has denied that chemical weapons are being used.

All four men are former residents of Kilju county, an area in North Korea that includes the nuclear test site Punggye-ri. According to Reuters, they were likely exposed to radiation between May 2009 and January 2013. All of the men defected to the South before the most recent test, according to a researcher at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute.

The researcher cautioned that people can be exposed to radiation in many ways, and that none of the defectors who had lived in Punggye-ri itself showed specific symptoms.

Fears that North Korea could unintentionally trigger a nuclear disaster via its nuclear tests have escalated since the North’s Sept. 3 nuclear test, prompting China to increase monitoring of radioactive activity along its border with its restive neighbor. Seismic activity detected in the aftermath of the test suggests the test site is suffering from "Tired Mountain Syndrome" – a condition detected at former Soviet nuclear testing sites. The destabilizing impact of the tests was made evident when a tunnel at Punggye-ri collapsed, killing 200 North Korean workers.

Still, the North has pushed ahead with building new tunnels at the test site, suggesting that – instead of abandoning Punggye-ri altogether, as their Chinese peers have advised, they intend to move the tests to a different part of the mountain.

Ultimately, scientists worry that the mountain could implode, releasing a plume of toxic radioactive dust into the atmosphere that could wreak untold havoc on the health of people across the region.

"Tired Mountain Syndrome" - North Korea"s Nuclear Test Site Is Headed For A Deadly Collapse

UN Security Council sanctions aside, one of the reasons China has closed much of its border with North Korea and imposed emergency measures to monitor radiation flowing across the mountainous terrain is because the country’s scientists worry that the mountain under which North Korea has held five of its six nuclear tests is in danger of collapsing and unleashing a devastating cloud of radiation on the surrounding terrain.

And just in case anybody doubted the veracity of China’s warnings, a slew of independent analysts have confirmed what Beijing has long feared: North Korea’s Mount Mantap, a 7,200-foot-peak under which North Korea has carried out most of its recent nuclear tests, is suffering from “tired mountain syndrome,” according to the Washington Post.

Satellite images captured during the North’s Sept. 3 test of a purported hydrogen bomb, Mt Mantap could be seen visibly shifting during the enormous detonation which triggered a 6.3 magnitude earthquake in North Korea’s northeast.

And since that test, the region - which is not known for seismic activity - has experienced several landslides and no fewer than three more earthquakes."

The North, which carried out its first nuclear test more than ten years ago in 2006, has built a complex system of tunnels underneath the mountain that’s known as the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility. According to WaPo, intelligence analysts use satellites to monitor the three known entrances to Punggye-ri to try and anticipate when another test might be coming.

Arms Control Wonk describes the site in more precise detail.

North Korea’s nuclear test site comprises a number of tunnel complexes in mountains surrounding a main support area. Following an initial nuclear explosion in 2006, subsequent nuclear tests have been conducted in a tunnel complex to the North of the support area, under Mt. Mantap. The site contains additional tunnel complexes that may be suitable for nuclear explosions to the south and west of the support area. The Punggye-ri site is capable of hosting nuclear explosions in tunnels with yields of up to a few hundred kilotons.

The tremors unleashed by the North’s last test shook homes in northeastern China. And eight minutes after the initial quake subsided, there was a 4.1-magnitude earthquake that appeared to be a tunnel collapsing at the site.

 

Punggye-ri Tunnels by JamesMartinCNS on Sketchfab

 

Images captured by Airbus showed the mountain trembling during the test. An 85-acre area on the peak of Mount Mantap visibly subsided during the explosion, an indication of both the size of the blast and the weakness of the mountain.

Anybody who was around in the 1950s and 1960s will remember that “tired mountain syndrome” was a diagnosis last applied to the Soviet Union’s atomic test sites. To be sure, earthquakes also occurred at the US nuclear test site in Nevada after detonations there.

“The underground detonation of nuclear explosions considerably alters the properties of the rock mass,” Vitaly V. Adushkin and William Leith wrote in a report on the Soviet tests for the United States Geological Survey in 2001. This leads to fracturing and rocks breaking, and changes along tectonic faults.

Analysts Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu worry that the blasts have caused substantial damage to the North’s tunnel network.

“Based on the severity of the initial blast, the post-test tremors, and the extent of observable surface disturbances, we have to assume that there must have been substantial damage to the existing tunnel network under Mount Mantap,” they wrote in a report for the specialist North Korea website 38 North.

Of course, just because the mountain is literally crumbling doesn’t mean the North will stop using it as a test site. As WaPo notes, the US didn’t abandon the Nevada test site after earthquakes there, they said. Instead, the US kept using the site until a nuclear test moratorium took effect in 1992. For that reason, analysts will continue to keep a close eye on the Punggye-ri test site to see if North Korea starts excavating there again — a sign of possible preparations for another test.

But as Chinese scientists have warned, one more test might be one too many.

Chinese scientists have warned that another test under the mountain could lead to an environmental disaster. If the whole mountain caved in on itself, radiation could escape and drift across the region, said Wang Naiyan, the former chairman of the China Nuclear Society and senior researcher on China’s nuclear weapons program.

 

“We call it ‘taking the roof off.’ If the mountain collapses and the hole is exposed, it will let out many bad things,” Wang told the South China Morning Post last month.

But perhaps equally as concerning as the collapse of Mantap is the possibility that another test could trigger an eruption at Mt. Paektu, an active supervolcano located on the North Korea-China border, about 80 miles from Pyungge-ri.

The mountain has not experienced a major eruption for centuries, and its last small rumble was in 1903. But an eruption could have devastating consequences - possibly causing more death and destruction than a nuclear blast.

And with a North Korean diplomat reiterating today that the North intends to continue with its nuclear program, while the country has also decried the military exercises happening in the waters east of the peninsula, where the USS Ronald Reagan is conducting training drills with the South Korean navy.

However, the North’s Oct. 10 holiday and the Oct. 18 beginning of China’s National Party Congress having come and gone without a new test. And signs of movement at some of the country’s missile test sites spotted in recent weeks have apparently been false alarms.

But given the amount of time that has elapsed since the North’s most recent missile test, it’s likely that the next provocative test - be it a test of a new long-range missile or a seventh nuclear test - isn’t too far off.
 

Chinese Scientists Warn North Korea's Nuke Test Site At Risk Of Imploding, "Releasing Many Bad Things"

Earlier we showed the shocking satellite images showing numerous landslides aound the mountain that is North Korea"s nuclear test site, and it appears Chinese officials are also keeping a very close eye on the region, instigating "emergency monitoring" for radiation leaks as the former chairman of the China Nuclear Society warns of the potential for a massive environmental disaster.

As SHTFplan.com"s Mac Slavo notes, we already know that North Korea has the capability of not only firing Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles that could strike major U.S. cities, but that they have the nuclear technology to make any such attack absolutely devastating.

Weapons of Mass Destruction, electro-magnetic pulse weapons and World War III aside, however, the South China Morning Post reports that another danger lurks just below the mountain where North Korea has been testing their nuclear devices.

A total of at least six nuclear device tests have reportedly taken place in North Korea and Chinese seismologists have been able to pinpoint their locations to within 100 meters.

(January 2016 Blast Site – via The Daily Signal)

(The September 2017 blast took place in the same location – Via Norsar)

It turns out that all of the tests occurred under the same mountain and scientists are now warning that it could implode, leaving a massive hole that would leak deadly radiation across the entire region, including China:

Wang Naiyan, the former chairman of the China Nuclear Society and senior researcher on China’s nuclear weapons programme, said that if Wen’s findings were reliable, there was a risk of a major environmental disaster.

Another test might cause the whole mountain to cave in on itself, leaving only a hole from which radiation could escape and drift across the region, including China, he said.

 

“We call it ‘taking the roof off’. If the mountain collapses and the hole is exposed, it will let out many bad things.”

 

Sunday’s blast was followed by an earthquake eight minutes later, which China’s seismic authorities interpreted as a cave-in triggered by the explosion.

 

Source: South China Morning Post

If the results are accurate - which we now know they are judging by the satellite images - then there has already been a partial implosion of the mountain, though the radiation released during recent nuclear tests remains contained. At least we think it is still contained.

Close-up of slope between North Portal and mountain peak showing multiple landslides before:

And after:

With North Korea planning even more tests, China has reason to be worried.

"The increasing size of North Korea’s nuclear bombs was also making "topping" more likely," Wang said.

 

“A 100 kiloton bomb is a relatively large bomb. The North Korean government should stop the tests as they pose a huge threat not only to North Korea but to other countries, especially China,” he said.

As we’ve seen with Fukushima, radiation could force long-term evacuations of thousands of square miles and cause deadly consequences for people living downwind of any potential leak.

The theory sounds reasonable. And whether or not its true, it certainly gives China a solid position from which to negotiate North Korea’s nuclear disarmament.

If this report continues to gain traction - and the satellite images we showed earlier appear to confirm it -  then North Korea’s weapons testing is no longer just a geo-political military problem, but rather, has the potential for a massive humanitarian crisis, something that both East and West could use to further pressure the North’s leader Kim Jong Un in an effort to avoid widespread nuclear conflict.

Meanwhile, Somewhere In The Pentagon...

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The decision to launch nuclear weapons is political, not military.

As North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un declares that "The Entire US Territory Is Now Within Our ICBM Range", somewhere in the Pentagon, operational plans to neutralize North Korean nuclear and long-range missile capabilities are being refined.

There are undoubtedly two sets of operational plans: one deploying conventional weapons, and the second for deployment of nuclear weapons.

Nothing personal, Mr. Kim Jong Un, it"s just business. A core duty of planners in the Pentagon is to ask "What if" and draw up a range of scenarios and operational plans to carry out the civilian leadership"s policies and decisions.

One such scenario is "what if North Korea launches a ballistic missile that is tracking to strike U.S. territory?"

One response option in this scenario would be to wait and see if the North Korean missile hits the U.S. and if it is armed with a nuclear weapon, and if so, if the warhead detonates.

Another option is to respond immediately with a nuclear strike that neutralizes North Korea"s ability to launch any more nuclear-armed missiles.

The U.S. Armed Forces does not declare war or make the decision to launch a nuclear strike--that is the perogative and responsibility of the nation"s civilian elected leadership. The duty of the U.S. Armed Forces is to be prepared to execute the decisions and policies of the elected civilian leadership.

The ethical considerations of such a decision are not the Pentagon"s purview--those considerations rest with the elected civilian leadership. If North Korea is poised to kill 2 million Americans, South Koreans, Japanese, etc., then isn"t erasing North Korea"s capability to kill millions at the cost of 50,000 North Korean lives in a limited nuclear strike the more ethical choice?

Those considerations are not part of operational plans. The purpose of operational plans is to get the assigned job done. Limiting civilian casualties might well be part of the assigned mission. But it"s not the Pentagon planners" job to make those mission decisions.

There are no small nuclear explosions, but there are smaller explosions and variations that have profoundly different consequences. Ground-burst detonations carve out craters and send shock waves through the earth that crumple tunnels, bunkers, elevator shafts, etc. Ground-burst detonations generate vast quantities of radioactive particles. Since it"s well known that North Korea has buried its most precious nuclear resources deep underground, ground-burst detonations would be the only way to disrupt the access routes to bunkers deep underground.

Air-burst nuclear detonations generate field effects, i.e. electromagnetic pulses across the spectrum. These can be "tuned" to some degree. Thus a neutron-type weapon is designed to sicken and kill enemy soldiers while leaving buildings and equipment intact. This might be the weapon of choice to neutralize any attempt by the North Korean Army to launch a devastating artillery attack on South Korea in retaliation for the destruction of North Korea"s missile and nuclear capabilities.

Air-burst field effects often include massive disruption of electronic equipment. This might limit the operational plans for air-burst nuclear detonations near ther DMZ, as technologically advanced South Korea might well suffer significant economic losses from an air burst near the border with North Korea.

By the same token, an air-burst nuclear detonation over North Korean military communications headquarters might be considered essential to distrupt the North Koreans" command and control capabilities.

My point here is that operational plans to decapitate North Korean nuclear and ICBM capabilities exist and are constantly being revised and refined in light of new intelligence. It"s not the planners" job to make the geopolitical or ethical calculations that inform such a drastic decision. It"s the planners" job to make sure a strike ordered by the elected civilian leadership of the nation achieves its goal, i.e. eliminates North Korea"s nuclear and missile delivery capabilities completely.

It"s easy to say nuclear weapons should never be used, but what if conventional weapons can"t do the job, or create greater risks? Would you consider it a good ethical trade-off to wait for millions to die before killing thousands? That"s a political choice, and one that will always be second-guessed or disputed. But making such decisions is the purpose of elected civilian government.

The planners job is much more direct. If the elected civilian government orders the neutralization of North Korea"s ability to kill millions of civilians in South Korea, Japan or the U.S., then the job boils down to aligning existing resources and reckoning how many resources will be needed to get the job done in the most effective way available.

A conventional-weapons strike would likely require hundreds (and possibly thousands) of aircraft sorties, and all that such a monumental effort entails. It would also requires a significant amount of time to execute. A nuclear strike requires far fewer resources but has consequences far beyond those of conventional weapons.

There have been no nuclear weapons detonated with the express intention of destroying civilians since 1945. The stakes are high, and nobody wants to launch a nuclear attack unless it is in retaliation for a nuclear attack. But by then it"s too late to save the millions killed by the initial attack.

We all hope deterrence works. But deterrence very nearly failed a number of times in the Cold War between the USSR and the US. Given the possibility that deterrence might fail--over-ridden by a commander with launch authority, or a dozen other possibilities of miscalculation or impulse-- plans must be made for a first-strike designed to neutralize a nuclear missile capability.

The decision to launch nuclear weapons is political, not military - but achieving the goal is the duty of the military.

It"s nothing personal, folks--it"s just a peculiar business.

Japan Holds Evacuation Drills Amid Growing Concerns Over North Korea's Missile Tests

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

The Japanese are no longer taking any chances against the rogue North Korean regime and Kim Jong-Un’s insistence on the continued testing of ballistic missiles. Japan is now participating in more frequent evacuation drills in the event that they are attacked by North Korea.

Although drills of this type aren’t the first in Japan this year, they are increasing in frequency. Sunday’s evacuation drill in the town of Abu, Yamaguchi prefecture, is showing how concerned the Japanese are about a potential North Korean attack. The town of about 3,500 people some 760 km (475 miles) west of Tokyo involved a simulated North Korean missile attack. And more Japanese towns and cities are taking steps to brace for what they hope will never happen.

North Korea has been increasing the number of its missile test launches in recent months. Launching 12 so far this year and three last month, with many splashing into the Sea of Japan, the Japanese are rightly concerned. Some of North Korea’s missiles have even landed inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone, which extends up to 200 miles from its shores.

Tokyo has repeatedly condemned the test launches, which are in violation of United Nations resolutions, yet it’s become clear that North Korea’s volatile leader, Kim Jong-Un doesn’t care about the rules imposed upon him. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government earlier this year instructed municipalities to hold evacuation drills, heightening a sense of urgency among the public. Although security experts in Japan have said that the drills won’t save everyone, they could save some, and that’s better than not having a plan.  “It’s hard to say how many people will be saved and how much effect it will have. But, with awareness raised and basic procedure understood, the survival rate will definitely be higher,” retired Vice Admiral Yoji Koda said.

The Japanese government is actively attempting to help the public prepare for the worst by putting on its website a list of tips in case a missile lands in Japanese territory. The tips include “take shelter in a robust building nearby” and “move away from windows or, if possible, move to a room without windows.”  The government has previously stated that the Japanese public would only have ten minutes to react if North Korea launches a missile their way – minus the few minutes it would take for the government to alert the public to the attack.

The preparation by Japan is due to the short window of opportunity should North Korea attack the island nation. The Japanese in range of the so far hypothetical missile would have very little time to seek refuge, and the loss of life could be staggering. With schoolchildren also taking place in these drills, it’s safe to say that the Japanese are concerned, but not willing to take chances, especially on towns on Japan’s western coast.

Being prepared is going to help the Japanese in the event of an attack. Although Japan is refusing to panic, they also want to be prepared.  It is important to mention, however, that North Korea has not specifically threatened the Japanese, yet.  But many believe that a North Korean missile program is a threat to the nation.