Showing posts with label Hwasong-10. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hwasong-10. Show all posts

Saturday, September 30, 2017

North Korea Seen Moving Missiles As US Admits For First Time It Is In "Direct Contact" With Pyongyang

North Korea has again been observed moving several missiles from a rocket facility in the capital Pyongyang, according to a report late on Friday by South Korea’s Korean Broadcasting System (KBS) rising speculation that the North is preparing to take more provocative actions. The last time a similar report emerged was at the start of September, which was followed just days later by a ballistic missile launch which flew over Japan.


Officials did not say where the missiles were being moved, nor the make: according to Reuters, the missiles could be either intermediate range Hwasong-12 or intercontinental ballistic Hwasong-14 missiles, according to the report, though the missile facility at Sanum-dong has been dedicated to the production of intercontinental ballistic missiles.


As previously reported, South Korean official have speculated that the North could launch another nuclear or missile test to coincide with the anniversary of the founding of its communist party on Oct. 10, or possibly when China holds its Communist Party Congress on Oct. 18. Meanwhile, US Pacific Command revealed on Friday that the US and South Korea had recently completed their first joint short range air defense training exercise in South Korea, though it did not say when or exactly where the exercises had taken place.


Separately, on Saturday Secretary of State Rex Tillerson acknowledged for the first time that the US is in direct communication with the government of North Korea over its missile and nuclear tests – a stunning revelation considering that administration officials have until this point insisted that there has been only limited, indirect contact between the White House and the Kim regime. According to the New York Times, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson revealed as much during a speech at the residence of the US ambassador to Beijing after a meeting with Chinese leaders. Tillerson is in China on Saturday for what the NYT described as a “brief visit.”


“We are probing, so stay tuned,” Tillerson said when pressed about how he might begin a conversation with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, that could avert what many government officials fear is a significant chance of open conflict between the two countries.


Tillerson wouldn’t say if the North Koreans had responded to the US’s overtures.



After noting that this was the first time a US official had confirmed that the US was directly communicating with the North, the NYT compared the secret backchanneling to a strategy used by the Obama administration to help forge what became the Iran deal – a comparison that Tillerson swiftly pushed back against. “We are not going to put a deal together with North Korea that’s as flimsy as the one in Iran,” he said. He added that the situation is different and that the North already has nuclear weapons, while Iran was still years away from obtaining them.  


“We ask, ‘Would you like to talk?’ We have lines of communication to Pyongyang – we’re not in a dark situation, a blackout. We have a couple, three channels open to Pyongyang,” he added, speaking at the residence of the US ambassador to Beijing after a meeting with China’s top leadership. He would not say if the North Koreans had responded, beyond a heated exchange of threats in recent weeks. Trump has repeatedly threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea, while the North has threatened to conduct a nuclear test over the Pacific Ocean, and to shoot down US aircraft flying in international waters if they come uncomfortably close to North Korean territory.  


"We can talk to them," Tillerson said "We do talk to them."


When asked whether those channels ran through Chia, he shook his head. “Directly,” he said. “We have our own channels.”


Tillerson added that the most important thing was to lower the tensions between the two countries.


"I think everyone would like for it to calm down."


Reactions to the admission of bilateral contacts were mixed: that the United States would be in contact with North Korea is not surprising, said Narushige Michishita, director of the Security and International Studies Program at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, “But it sounds a little too early.”


“The timing is unexpected,” he said. “It was perfectly clear that both North Korea and the United States, and others, are in the prenegotiation bargaining process.”


Meanwhile, in Japan, where Prime Minister Shinzo Abe recently dissolved the lower house of parliament and called a snap election, the news that the United States is already in direct contact with North Korea could give ammunition to Mr. Abe’s opponents. The Japanese leader has steadfastly maintained that it is not the time for dialogue, arguing in a recent Op-Ed article in The New York Times that “emphasizing the importance of dialogue will not work with North Korea.” “Now,” Mr. Michishita added, “the opposition party members can say ‘Look, you have been talking about pressure, but the U.S. is just leaving you behind.’ ”

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

"Fake Nukes": Iran Faked Ballistic Missile Launch

On Saturday, when a defiant Iran allegedly confirmed the existence a brand new ballistic missile it has unveiled just hours earlier at a military parade in Tehran, we reported that Iranian state television released video footage Friday claiming to show the launch of a new type of medium-range ballistic missile.



But it turns out this was "fake news", or rather "fake nukes", as Iran never actually fired a ballistic missile, according to Fox News government sources, and instead the video released by the Iranians was more than seven months old – dating back to a failed launch in late January, which resulted in the missile exploding shortly after liftoff, according to two U.S. officials.


After the footage was aired, Iranian media claiming a successful test launch – though it apparently showed the failed January launch. At the time, Iran was attempting to launch its new Khorramshahr medium-range ballistic missile for the first time. It flew 600 miles before exploding, in a failed test of a reentry vehicle, officials said at the time. The failed late January launch was first reported by Fox News and prompted the White House to put Iran “on notice” days later.


However, apparently news of the fake launch was not filtered by the US "intelligence" apparatus before it reached Trump who responded to the reported launch in a late-Saturday tweet, saying, “Iran just test-fired a Ballistic Missile capable of reaching Israel. They are also working with North Korea. Not much of an agreement we have!” Last week, speaking before world leaders at the United Nations, Trump slammed the Iranian regime and called the Iran nuclear deal an “embarrassment” to the United States. 


“We cannot let a murderous regime continue these destabilizing activities while building dangerous missiles, and we cannot abide by an agreement if it provides cover for the eventual construction of a nuclear program,” he said. As reported previously, Trump later told reporters he had made up his mind about the deal, but he has yet to explain if that means the United States will be pulled out of the nuclear accord.


Meanwhile, Iran"s President Hassan Rouhani, speaking at the U.N. one day after Trump, claimed his country’s missile program was “solely defensive” in nature.  “We never threaten anyone, but we do not tolerate threats from anyone,” he said. Rohani returned to Tehran two days later to preside over the missile parade featuring the new medium-range design and said his country would build as many missiles as necessary to defend itself. 


Ironically, Iran’s new medium-range missile is based on a North Korean design—Pyongyang’s BM-25 Musudan ballistic missile, which has a maximum range of nearly 2,500 miles, putting U.S. forces in the Middle East and Israel within reach... assuming its problems have been fixed of course.


“The very first missiles we saw in Iran were simply copies of North Korean missiles,” missile proliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies Jeffrey Lewis, told Fos News. “Over the years, we"ve seen photographs of North Korean and Iranian officials in each other"s countries, and we"ve seen all kinds of common hardware.” 





A senior Iranian general said last weekend that the missile had a range of less than 2,000 miles. "The Khoramshahr missile has a range of 2,000 kilometers [1,250 miles] and can carry multiple warheads," Iran’s official IRNA news agency quoted Revolutionary Guards aerospace chief General Amir Ali Hajizadeh as saying.



The missile “is capable of carrying multiple warheads,” Hajizadeh added.



“I am not sure why the Iranians are lying about the range,” one U.S. official said. “I think they don’t want to piss the Europeans off.”



While U.N. resolution 2231, put in place days after the Iran nuclear deal was signed, calls on the Islamic Republic not to conduct ballistic missile tests, but does not forbid them from doing so, after Russia and China insisted on the watered-down language in order to pass the resolution. Iran is "called upon not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology," according to the text of the resolution.


Iran possesses the largest arsenal of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, with more than 1,000 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. Tehran has conducted over 20 missile tests since 2015. Tehran claims the tests are legitimate because they are defensive in nature. 

Friday, September 15, 2017

North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile Over Japan; US Demands China, Russia "Take Direct Actions"

Update 5: US Secretary of State Tillerson has issued a rather aggressive (towards China and Russia) statement:





North Korea"s Missile Launch



North Korea"s provocative missile launch represents the second time the people of Japan, a treaty ally of the United States, have been directly threatened in recent weeks.



These continued provocations only deepen North Korea"s diplomatic and economic isolation.



United Nations Security Council resolutions, including the most recent unanimous sanctions resolution, represent the floor, not the ceiling, of the actions we should take.



We call on all nations to take new measures against the Kim regime.



China supplies North Korea with most of its oil. Russia is the largest employer of North Korean forced labor.



China and Russia must indicate their intolerance for these reckless missile launches by taking direct actions of their own.



*  *  *


Update 4: The UN Security Council is set to meet at 4am Saturday Seoul time (3pm ET on Friday)


*  *  *


Update 3: US Pacific Command has confirmed that its commitment to the defense of Japan and South Korea (via NBC News)





U.S. Pacific Command detected and tracked what we assess was a single North Korean ballistic missile launch at 11:57 a.m. (Hawaii lime) Sept. 14. Initial assessment indicates the launch of an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM). The launch occurred in the vicinity of Sunan, North Korea and flew east.



The ballistic missile overflew the territory of northern Japan before landing in the Pacific Ocean east of Japan. We are working with our interagency partners on a more detailed assessment and we will provide a public update if warranted.



The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) determined this ballistic missile did not pose a threat to North America, U.S. Pacific Command determined this ballistic missile did not pose a threat to Guam. We continue to monitor North Korea"s actions closely.



Our commitment to the defense of our allies, including the Republic of Korea and Japan, in the face of these threats, remains ironclad. We remain prepared to defend ourselves and our allies from any attack or provocation.



*  *  *


Update 2: Japanese and South Korean officials have started to respond:


Japanese officials are very unappy (and are seeing much support from their ally in Washington)


  • *JAPAN PM ABE HAS RETURNED TO JAPAN FROM INDIA: KYODO (that was quick)

  • *ABE: N.KOREA ACT ABSOLUTELY UNACCEPTABLE

  • *ABE: N.KOREA THREATENING WORLD PEACE THROUGH PROVOCATION

  • *ABE: INTL COMMUNITY MUST SEND CLEAR MESSAGE TO N.KOREA (because "firs & fury" was not clear enough)

  • *ABE: IF N.KOREA CONTINUES ON THIS PATH IT HAS NO BRIGHT FUTURE

  • *ABE: JAPAN WAS COMPLETELY AWARE OF MISSILE MOVEMENT

  • *SUGA: N. KOREA LAUNCH WAS ONE-WAY ACT OF ESCALATION

  • *SUGA: MISSILE FLEW 3,700 KM, ALTITUDE ABOUT 800KM

  • *SUGA: BELIEVE MISSILE WASN"T LAUNCHED VIA LOFTED TRAJECTORY

  • *SUGA: STILL EVALUATING WHAT TYPE OF MISSILE N.KOREA LAUNCHED

Then it seems the South Koreans are gravely coincerned about their stock market more than any existential threat to their citizens...


  • *S. KOREA TO STRENGTHEN MONITORING OVER MARKETS ON N. KOREA RISK

  • *S. KOREA SAYS N. KOREA PROVOCATION CAN DESTABILIZE MARKETS

  • *S. KOREA GOVT TO TAKE FIRM AND SWIFT STEPS ON MARKETS IF NEEDED

And just as we saw yesterday - after US officials noted that North Korea appeared to be preparing for a launch, we suspect we will see Korea"s PPT in action soon...



*  *  *


Update 1:  According to Fox News, the U.S. has now confirmed the latest North Korean missile launch.





  • U.S. OFFICIAL CONFIRMS #NORTHKOREA FIRED BALLISTIC MISSILE: FOX NEWS

  • WHITE HOUSE SAYS TRUMP BRIEFED ON N.KOREA MISSILE: YONHAP NEWS


Gold and Yen are bid for now (after 3 NK headlines during the day)...



* * *


All the diplomatic posturing, the jawboning, the UN sanctions, and threats over the past three weeks has achieved absolutely nothing because as Yonhap and NHK report, North Korea has just launched an "unidentified" missile eastward from the capital Pyongyang.


A live feed from NHK in English is available after clicking on the image below:



According to Yonhap, "North Korea fired an unidentified missile eastward from the vicinity of Pyongyang this morning," the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said. It added that South Korea and the United States are analyzing additional information. On August 29, the North lobbed a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile over the island nation in a similar provocation .


Following the launch Japan has issued a missile alert to mobile phones and on national television, with the government advising people outside to take shelter immediately. 


Worse, it appears that the missile has once again flown over Japan:


  • NORTH KOREA MISSILE PASSES OVER JAPAN, GOVT SAYS

  • N.KOREA MISSILE PASSES OVER JAPAN"S HOKKAIDO, GOVT SAYS

As NHK further adds, the missile which was launched at 6:57am local time, passed over Hokkaido at 7:06am local time, and came down in the Pacific Ocean, some 2,000 KM east of Japan"s Erimo Misaki.


The launch marks the North"s first provocation following the UNSC sanctions for which the communist country has warned of retaliation.


The missile flew a total of 3,700 kilometers and reached an altitude of 770km, according to Yonhap, before splashing down in the Pacific Ocean.


NK


  • NKOREA MISSILE MAY BE HWASONG 12, JP DEF OFFICIAL SAYS:TV ASAHI


Japan"s cabinet minister Suga said that the missile situation is similar to that on August 29, NHK adds, and that Japan will take appropriate response in contact with the US and South Korea. NHK adds that Japan did not attempt to shoot down the missile though the South Korean military has confirmed it fired a test missile into the sea as part of training drill.


The South"s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae immediately convened a National Security Council meeting, as the country"s troops conducted a ballistic missile training in the East Sea in response to the North"s latest provocation.


And now we await whether the US will finally escalate militarily, as Trump has threatened on countless occasions, or once again use even harsher, and more powerless, language hoping for a different outcome.

Monday, May 29, 2017

North Korea Launches Another Ballistic Missile

It"s becoming a weekend tradition.


Almost exactly one week after the latest ballistic missile test launch by Pyongyang last Sunday, and two weeks after a similar launch the weekend prior, North Korea has fired its latest unidentified ballistic missile early on Monday, South Korea"s military said according to Yonhap News. According to NBC, the North Korean missile flew for 6 miles after launch and landed in the Sea of Japan.


The launch will be the 12th missile Pyongyang has fired this year (according to the WSJ, and 9th according to Bloomberg, which count launch "errors" differently).



North Korea test-fired a new mid-to-long-range rocket, which it calls the
Hwasong-12, on May 14, 2017


The unidentified missile was fired from near the North Korean coastal city of Wonsan, Seoul"s Joint Chief of Staff (JCS) said. The missile flew in a easterly direction, sources said.


The launch was immediately reported to President Moon Jae-in, who called a meeting of the National Security Council at 7:30 a.m. (2230 GMT Sunday), the South Korean office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement, according to Reuters.


While there was little initial information, the North Korean projectile may fall into waters of Japan’s exclusive economic zone, or EEZ, according to Japan"s public broadcaster NHK which cited the Japanese government.



NHK also adds that the Defense Ministry is analyzing details such as projectile path, and added that the foreign ministry will - again - protest to North Korea using diplomatic channels.  Prime Minister’s office collecting information in task office from related agencies and heighten alert.


There has been no official response from the White House yet, altough we expect the token "the White House is aware of the launch" will be fortcoming momentarily.


Trump, who has said all options are on the table to deal with Kim’s regime, has repeatedly sought more help from China to rein in its neighbor and ally. Acting Assistant Secretary of State Susan Thornton on Friday acknowledged China’s efforts such as banning North Korean coal imports and tightening border controls, while adding that “they clearly have to do more.” Clearly, because on Friday Yonhap reported that North Korea"s grain imports from China showed a more than fivefold surge last month from a year ago.


At least North Korea has so far this year refrained from conducting a nuclear test, something which even Beijing has said would be a "red line."


Meanwhile, as reported yesterday, a third US aircraft carrier, the USS Nimitz is now making its way to the Korean Peninsula where it will join the Carl Vinson and Ronald Reagan, ahead of what many anticipate could be a "decapitation" attack on the North Korean regime.



Monday, May 22, 2017

North Korea's Latest Missile Test Brings Us One Step Closer To WWIII (Here's How We Got Here)

As time goes on, North Korea’s nuclear program is making war with the United States more and more likely. As SHTFplan.com"s Daniel Lang details, we’re on a terrible path that no one knows how to escape from.



On the one hand, North Korea is clearly led by an unhinged and tyrannical government that can’t be trusted with nuclear weapons. So you can understand why the US is so determined to stop their progress with these weapons. But at the same time, those nuclear weapons could one day guarantee that the leaders of North Korea will remain in power for a long time. Those weapons would make any potential aggressor think twice about trying to invade the bellicose nation, so there’s no way that North Korea is going to abandon its nuclear program.


Perhaps the only thing that’s preventing a war from breaking out right now, is the fact that North Korea doesn’t have an effective way to deliver a nuke, nor have they been making much progress in that arena. It seems like every time they test a long range missile, it fails spectacularly. So long as that state of affairs continues, war can be averted.


Unfortunately, North Korea’s missile program has just made a huge leap. On Sunday they tested a new missile that was arguably far more effective than anything they’ve ever launched before.





A Hwasong-12, a new medium long-range surface-to-surface missile, was launched from Kusong early Sunday morning. The missile flew roughly 430 miles, but the weapon was intentionally lofted. Analysts suspect the missile could potentially hit targets 2,800 miles away if fired along a standard trajectory.



In other words, the missile was launched with a steep arc, as a opposed to a relatively flat trajectory. This was done so that the missile could be tested without launching it over any neighboring countries. Most experts believe that if the missile had been given a flatter trajectory, it could have reached American military assets throughout much of the Pacific.





The North “appears to have not only demonstrated an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that might enable them to reliably strike the U.S. base at Guam, but more importantly, may represent a substantial advance to developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM),” John Schilling, a respected aerospace engineer who specializes in rockets, explained.



With the ability to strike Guam, the North may now have the means to strike most major U.S. strategic assets in East Asia and the western Pacific. While this would be an impressive achievement, North Korea is determined to master ICBM technology. The missile tested Sunday may be the predecessor to a future ICBM.



Is it any wonder why  North Korea is the perfect trigger for World War 3? This unstable nation is rapidly increasing its nuclear capabilities, and it’s a nation that China and Russia have a vested interest in keeping alive. They want a buffer state between their borders and South Korea, which is allied with the United States. So any conflict with North Korea (a conflict that is looking more likely every day) could easily drag more nuclear armed nations into the fray.


Unless one side of this fight backs down, World War 3 is inevitable. And so far it doesn’t look like either side is willing to compromise on North Korea’s missile program.


And here is how we got here, courtesy of Goldman Sachs - The Timeline of North Korea Developments




Finally, Goldman"s Jeff Currie and Mikhail Sprogis discuss gold as a hedge against geopolitical events...


...we find that gold can effectively hedge against geopolitical risk if the geopolitical event is extreme enough that it leads to some sort of currency debasement, and especially if the gold price move is much sharper than the move in real rates or the dollar. For these events, gold essentially serves as a call option and can therefore be thought of as a “geopolitical hedge of last resort.”


...This analysis, however, doesn’t take into consideration gold market liquidity itself, which can be crucial when deciding to hedge via physical gold in a vault versus COMEX gold futures.


Using a gold futures contract as the basis of the hedge makes the implicit assumption that market liquidity will not be a problem in the realization of a geopolitical event. The importance of liquidity was tested during the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Gold prices declined sharply as both traded volumes and open interest on the exchange plummeted. After this liquidity event, investors became more conscious of the physical vs. futures market distinction and began to demand more physical gold or physically-backed ETFs as a hedge against black-swan events.



The lesson learned was that if gold liquidity dries up along with the broader market’s, so does your hedge - unless it is physical gold in a vault, the true “hedge of last resort.”

Monday, May 15, 2017

North Korea: Latest Missile Can Deliver "Large Scale Heavy Nuclear Warhead"

Two days after the latest provocative missile test by North Korea, in which it launched a "new type" of ballistic missile, one which experts warned had a substantially longer range than any existing rocket North Korea had fired, on Monday morning North Korea announced that it had successfully conducted a mid-to-long range missile test on Sunday supervised by leader Kim Jong Un which was aimed at verifying the capability to carry a "large scale heavy nuclear warhead."



The country"s KCNA news agency further said that the Hwasong-12 missile was launched at the highest angle so as not to affect the security of neighboring countries and flew 787 kilometers reaching an altitude of 2,111.5 kilometers.



In an earlier article, we explained how and why the ballistic missile used may have been the most advanced one tested by North Korea yet.


For those who may have missed it, here it is again: "North Korea"s Latest Ballistic Missile Was A "New Type" With Dramatically Longer Range"


After North Korea provoked both its neighbors and the US when on Sunday morning it fired off yet another ballistic missile from Kusong near the border with China  - one which this time did not explode upon launch  - just days after the election of a new South Korean president who ironically advocates more engagement with Pyongyang, experts said the missile appeared to be a new type of ballistic missile, and had a far greater range than any other weapon North Korea has successfully launched.



According to Japanese Defense Minister Tomomi Inada, the missile rose to a height of about 2,000 kilometers, a much steeper trajectory than usual for a North Korean missile test. She also confirmed that officials were looking into the possibility that it was a "new type of ballistic missile." Japan"s cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, said the missile traveled for about 30 minutes and landed 700 kilometers east of the launch site. A spokesman for South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff estimated the distance at 435 miles.


Cited by the WSJ, independent experts said the missile, if fired at a conventional angle, could have flown 2,800 miles—far enough to reach the U.S. military base in Guam.


That is a “considerably longer range than its current missiles,” said David Wright, co-director of the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, in an analysis of the launch.




As the Journal adds, while North Korea’s Taepodong-2 rocket has flown farther than Sunday’s missile, North Korea classifies it as a satellite launcher that isn’t designed to deliver a warhead back to earth. It is, however, banned by United Nations sanctions because similar technology could be used to make an intercontinental ballistic missile.


North Korea’s previous most recent launch from Kusong took place in February, during a summit meeting between Mr. Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The February launch also featured a new type of missile for North Korea, one that uses a solid fuel-powered engine. The test involved an intermediate-range ballistic missile that was modified from a missile that North Korea launched from a submarine last year. It was later paraded through the streets of Pyongyang in April for a national holiday.


More here

Tuesday, May 2, 2017

This Is The Worst Year For North Korean Missile Test Success In 33 Years

As tensions between the United States and North Korea continue to grow, President Trump has warned "major, major conflict" between the two countries is possible. He added that he would prefer to solve the situation through diplomacy before praising Chinese President Xi Jinping, calling him "a very good man" who loves his country. The outbreak of hostilities could prove devastating for the South Korean capital, Seoul, which is targeted by thousands of artillery pieces dug in just over the border.


However, as Statista"s Niall McCarthy notes, the pressing issue continues to be the country"s ballistic missile program and its efforts to develop a nuclear warhead small enough to fit into a missile capable of striking Japan, the U.S. bases on Guam or the continental U.S. itself.


Is American concern at developments in North Korea justified?


Infographic: The Worrying Escalation Of North Korea


You will find more statistics at Statista


As can be seen on the following infographic, the pace of missile testing has accelerated steeply, even though many of the launches have resulted in failure. This year alone, Pyongyang has tested 9 ballistic missiles with 5 of the tests resulting in success (including Friday"s failure), according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative.


2017"s mere 55% success rate is the worst since 1984"s 50% success rate.


In 2016, 24 tests were carried out - 14 were successful and 10 resulted in failure.

Saturday, April 15, 2017

Chinese Media Almost Sets Off Military Action With Erroneous North Korea Headline

As expected - and feared - during the annual "Day of the Sun" celebration parade (celebrating the birth of the nation"s founder), Bloomberg blasted a headline that Chinese news agency Xinhua reported that North Korea has fired a projectile.


  • NORTH KOREA FIRES PROJECTILE, MEDIA SAYS: XINHUA

On its website, Bloomberg immediately picked up the story, and ran with "North Korea Fires Projectile Media, Says Xinhua" (at a url which still reads: "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-15/north-korea-fires-projectile-media-says-xinhua")



However, it appears that the headline scanning algos made a collosal error, and that Xinhua interpreted events quite incorrectly as it was, as CBC and Reuters reports, the appearance of a new submarine-launched missile at the parade for the first time:


  • NORTH KOREA SUBMARINE-LAUNCHED BALLISTIC MISSILE SEEN AT MILITARY PARADE FOR FIRST TIME: RTRS

North Korea displayed its submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) for the first time on Saturday ahead of a massive military parade in the capital, Pyongyang.


State TV showed images of the Pukkuksong-2 SLBMs on trucks waiting to be paraded in front of leader Kim Jong-un.



Immediately after, Xinhua - and Bloomberg - rushed to issue a clarification to avoid what may be a military confrontation.


  • XINHUA CLARIFIES HEADLINE ON NORTH KOREAN MISSILE

  • N.KOREA DISPLAYS BALLISTIC MISSILE AT MILITARY PARADE: XINHUA

As a result, the BBG headline - with a URL that still says that "North Korea fires a projectile" - now reads the following:



And that"s how World War 3 almost occurred.


As CNN reports, a military parade in the heart of Pyongyang is underway where it"s expected the North Korean regime will show off some of its latest arsenal. Pictures on state television showed thousands of soldiers marching in formation alongside tanks, balloons and enormous crowds. Leader Kim Jong Un was shown clapping and smiling from a reviewing box.


At one point, the soldiers directed a chant toward him. "We will die for you!" they yelled, CNN"s Will Ripley, who was at the event, reported. For North Koreans, April 15 is an auspicious date that sees millions celebrate the birth of the nation"s founder.

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

US Military Officials Expect North Korean Missile Launch Within Days

On the same day as Kim Jong Un threatens the US with "first-strike" nuclear ICBM and unveils propaganda showing the destruction of American forces, AP reports U.S. military officials expect another North Korean missile launch in the next several days.


Earlier today a Pyongyang envoy stated that North Korea will pursue "acceleration" of its nuclear and missile programs. This includes developing a "pre-emptive first strike capability" and an inter-continental ballistic missile, according to Choe Myong Nam, deputy ambassador at the DPRK (North Korean) mission to the United Nations in Geneva.


The latest development follows a previous report also from Reuters, in which it said the Trump administration is considering sweeping sanctions as part of a broad review of measures to counter North Korea"s nuclear and missile threat. "I think this is stemming from the visit by the Secretary of State (Rex Tillerson) to Japan, South Korea and China...We of course are not afraid of any act like that," Choe told Reuters.


"Even prohibition of the international transactions system, the global financial system, this kind of thing is part of their system that will not frighten us or make any difference." He called existing sanctions "heinous and inhumane".



Choe said his country wants a forum set up to examine the "legality and legitimacy of the sanctions regime" and denounced joint annual military exercises currently being carried out by the United States and South Korea on the divided peninsula and criticized remarks by Tillerson during his talks with regional allies last week.


"All he was talking about is for the United States to take military actions on DPRK (the Democratic People"s Republic of Korea," Choe said.


Additionally, North Korea rejects claims by Washington and Seoul that the military drills taking place at this moment are defensive. They involve strategic nuclear bombers and a nuclear submarine Columbus that recently entered South Korean ports, he said.


And then, just days after Kim threatened to reduce the US “to ashes” as tensions with North Korea continue to increase, which in turn followed a warning by Tillerson that the US is preparing for a "first strike" against the irrational dictator, while US special forces conduct drills in South Korea to "eliminate" the country"s ruler, the Supreme Leader released his latest materpiece of propaganda, showing the USS Carl Vinson nuclear-powered aircraft carrier up in flames.



And now, AP reports that the U.S. military expects another North Korean missile launch in the next several days, American defense officials said Tuesday.



The officials said the U.S. has increased its surveillance over the isolated, communist country and has seen a North Korean missile launcher moving around, as well as construction of VIP seating in the eastern coastal city Wonsan.


The officials, who weren"t authorized to discuss the matter publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, said the new surveillance includes satellites, drones and other aircraft.


The U.S. officials on Tuesday said it"s unclear what type of missile launch may be coming. North Korea previously has conducted tests in Wonsan of its medium-range ballistic Musudan missile.



White House press secretary Sean Spicer on Tuesday described the North Korean threat as "grave and escalating," and a National Security Council official told a nuclear conference that the administration is conducting a high-priority review of North Korea policy.


Christopher Ford, senior director for weapons of mass destruction and nonproliferation on the NSC staff, said reviewers are considering a "full spectrum of possibilities."


"There"s this enormously broad continuum, and we are looking at that entire conceptual space," Ford told the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. He gave no concrete examples, but in an attempt to illustrate his point that the choices run the gamut, he said they range from "warm hamburger" to "war hammers."

Monday, February 13, 2017

North Korea Says It Successfully Test-Fired A Nuclear-Capable ICBM Which Can "Avoid Interception"

North Korea said it successfully test-fired a new type of medium- to long-range ballistic missile that is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, the country"s state-run media said Monday. The North Korean missile flew over 500 kilometers, landing in the sea and stirring up world leaders, with the US rushing to reassure its allies South Korea and Japan.



The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said the Pukguksong-2 strategic weapon system was successfully test-fired Sunday adding that the missile launched from a mobile launcher used solid propellants and a new high-thrust engine developed in the country. The missiles also proved it can engage in evasive maneuvers during flight, the North said which is of note following the recent US deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) in South Korea, meant to engage and intercept rogue launches by North Korea (while making China very nervous).


North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests, including two last year, although its claims to be able to miniaturize a nuclear weapon to be mounted on a missile have never been verified independently. KCNA said the missile was fired at a high angle in "consideration of the safety of neighboring countries" Reuters reported. A South Korean military source said on Sunday the missile reached an altitude of 550 km (340 miles).


North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was present for the launch and stressed that with the Pukguksong-2, Pyongyang now has another means to deliver nuclear weapons according to Yonhap. The country has tested a total of five nuclear devices since 2006, with two being detonated last year. The missile was launched at a high angle to take the security of the neighboring countries into consideration. The test-fire proved the reliability and security of the surface launch system, and the new engine, the news agency said.


The new missile was also successfully tested for its ability to dodge interceptors with evasive maneuvers, Yonhap news agency cited the statement as saying. Another major boost for North Korean missile technology is the solid fuel engine said to be used in the new weapon. Pyongyang has been testing the engine, which would give the rockets greater range and make the launches harder to detect, over the past year. The technology was said to be tested previously in a submarine missile launch.


"Now our rocket industry has radically turned into high thrust solid fuel-powered engine from liquid fuel rocket engine and rapidly developed into a development- and creation-oriented industry, not just copying samples," Kim was quoted as saying by the KCNA in English. 


The development of the new strategic weapon system will allow the People"s Army to perform its duties most accurately and rapidly in any space: "under waters or on the land," Kim said. The communist regime leader ordered the development of a surface-to-surface ballistic missile with extended firing range on the basis of the success made in the submarine-launched ballistic missile test in August last year, it said.


Meanwhile, as Reuters adds, despite his campaign vows to take a tougher line with North Korea, President Donald Trump"s restrained public reaction to Pyongyang"s first ballistic missile launch on his watch underscores that he has few good options to curb its missile and nuclear programs.


The responses under consideration - which range from additional sanctions to U.S. shows of force to beefed-up missile defense, according to one administration official - do not seem to differ significantly so far from the North Korea playbook followed by Trump"s predecessor, Barack Obama. Even the idea of stepping up pressure on China to rein in a defiant North Korea has been tried - to little avail - by successive administrations. But Beijing is showing no signs of softening its resistance under a new U.S. president who has bashed them on trade, currency and the contested South China Sea.


More dramatic responses to North Korea"s missile tests would be direct military action or negotiations. But neither appears to be on the table - the first because it would risk regional war, the latter because it would be seen as rewarding Pyongyang for bad behavior. And neither would offer certain success.


"Trump"s options are limited," said Bonnie Glaser, an Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.


As noted last night, Trump"s initial public comments on Saturday on the test launch of what was believed to be an intermediate-range Musudan-class missile were unexpectedly measured - and brief - compared to earlier bluster about another U.S. adversary, Iran, since he took office on January 20.  "I just want everybody to understand, and fully know, that the United States of America is behind Japan, our great ally, 100 percent," Trump told reporters in Palm Beach, Florida, speaking in a solemn tone alongside visiting Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.


The U.S. president did not mention North Korea or signal any retaliatory plans for what was widely seen as an early effort to test the new administration. By contrast, Trump tweeted "It won’t happen!" in January after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said the North was close to testing an intercontinental ballistic missile.


While no one can rule out that Trump might still take to Twitter with harsh rhetoric as he often does, some analysts said his relatively subdued initial statement could show that aides have convinced him not to be baited by Pyongyang into issuing threats that would be hard to carry out, especially while his North Korea strategy is still being formulated. It might be a welcome change.

Sunday, February 12, 2017

North Korea Launches Ballistic Missile, Tests Trump

With the news cycle clearly far less interested in Trump"s golf game or Abe"s handicap, just before 8am local time (6pm ET), North Korea decided to provide CNN with some "exciting" news when it fired a ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast, South Korea"s military said, in what was the latest test of Trump"s resolve to retaliate to North Korean provocations.


This was the first missile launch by North Korea since Donald Trump - who has repeatedly threatened of taking retaliatory measures against such an act - took office. The launch also comes just one day after the US Air Force test-fired a Minuteman ICBM from California.


Cited by Reuters, a US official said that while the U.S. military had detected the missile launch and was assessing it, it was probably not an intercontinental ballistic missile.


The missile was launched from an area named Panghyon in North Korea"s western region and flew about 500 kilometers (300 miles) before falling into the sea, the South"s Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in statements. "Our assessment is that it is part of a show of force in response to the new U.S. administration"s hardline position against the North," the office said.



The South"s military said Seoul and Washington were analyzing the details of the launch. Yonhap News Agency said the South Korean military is assessing the launch to confirm whether it was a Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile, which has a designed flight range of 3,000 kilometers (1,800 miles). The U.S. military also said it had detected a missile test launch by the North and was assessing it, according to a U.S. defense official in Washington.


Japan"s government said it had asked the UN to issue “a strong message” against North Korea for the latest provocation.



The North tried to launch a Musudan eight times last year during the Obama presidency, but most attempts failed. One launch that sent a missile 400 km (250 miles), more than half the distance to Japan, was considered a success by officials and experts in the South and the United States.


Sunday"s launch comes a day after Trump held a summit meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and said he agreed to work to ensure strong defense against North Korea"s threat. South Korea"s presidential Blue House said a National Security Council meeting was called and chaired by President Park Geun-hye"s top national security advisor.


One month ago, during his New Year speech, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said that the country was close to test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile and state media said such a launch could come at any time, leading Trump to write on Twitter, “It won’t happen!” Trump did not give specifics of how he’d stop Kim’s missile development.


He may have to now.


At the time, Kim"s comments prompted a vow of an "overwhelming" response from U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis. North Korea conducted two nuclear tests and a number of missile-related tests at an unprecedented rate since early last year and was seen by experts and officials to be making progress in its weapons capabilities.


If indeed today"s launch is a "show of force" in response to the US hardline position, the entire world will be closely watching to see if Trump is about to fold again as he did on Friday, when he was called a "paper tiger" by China"s media after reversing his position on the "One China" policy, and agreeing that he would not challenge China"s legacy status with Taiwan.


According to the press, the White House - and president Trump at Mar-A-Lago - has been briefed on the launch.



We expect either a very angry tweet in response shortly, or a mushroom cloud to emerge in the middle of Pyongyang any minute.