Showing posts with label Exxon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Exxon. Show all posts

Friday, December 1, 2017

North Korea Says It Is "Ready For Nuclear War" With The US

A Russian lawmaker on Friday said that North Korea doesn’t want nuclear war with the US - but that the country is “morally ready” for war after US threats, and if it"s left with no other option, RIA reported. At the same time, Russia"s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, chimed in, and according to interfax, said there are people in Washington "who wish to provoke Pyongyang to reckless actions" and warned the US that if it "wants to destroy North Korea" then it is playing with fire and making a great mistake.


In this context, some have speculated that should Rex Tillerson leave the Trump admin, once the former Exxon CEO - who has been the most vocal opponent to a North Korea war - departs, then North Korea"s challenge may be promptly answered by the various generals currently inhabiting the White House. 



These remarks followed reports early Friday that North Korea would agree to peace talks with the US if the international community is ready to recognize it as a nuclear power. The news was relayed by a Russian delegation to Pyongyang. The delegation added that the North believes it was forced to be aggressive and that the country won’t give up its nukes under any circumstances.


“[Pyongyang] are ready to talk, however the [North] Korean side has its own condition – it should be recognized as a nuclear power,” Vitaly Pashin, a member of the Russian delegation, told news agencies upon their return. The North is now ready to negotiate with Washington “under parity terms” with the participation of Russia as a third party, he added.


Tensions spiked earlier this week when the North carried out its first missile launch in more than two months, ending the longest period of calm so far this year, when it test fired the country"s first true ICBM. Observers noted that the Hwasong-15 missile reached an unprecedented height of 4,500 kilometers, and flew for more than 50 minutes. Experts have concluded that the North now likely has the capability to strike anywhere in the continental US.



On Thursday, Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, warned Wednesday that the North Korean regime "will be utterly destroyed" in a war with the US.


"We have never sought war with North Korea, and still today we do not seek it," ambassador Haley said at a meeting of the UN Security Council. "If war does come, it will be because of continued acts of aggression like we witnessed yesterday."



"And if war comes, make no mistake, the North Korean regime will be utterly destroyed," Haley said, something which Kim clearly disagrees with.


Russia and China have repeatedly pushed the US and the North to agree to talks. The two powers have proposed a solution whereby the US and South Korea would agree to halt their military drills if the North halts its nuclear program.









Thursday, November 30, 2017

Bob Corker Says Tillerson "Doesn"t Plan To Be Ousted"

Update: Bob Corker, chairman of the senate foreign relations committee, said Thursday that he spoke with Tillerson after the New York Times reported that he would soon be pushed out of the Trump administration, and the secretary of state has no plans to leave his post.


That"s contrary to the NYT"s claim that he"s judiciously waiting until year-end to resign so he can "leave with dignity". The NYT also noted that Tillerson"s departure was not yet a done deal because it hadn"t received the final approval from Trump.


One might assume that Trump would at least try and convince Tillerson to stay, if only for the fear that Tillerson might share details about his time at the state department that might embarass the president.


 



 


* * *


Rumors have circulated for months that Rex Tillerson"s time at the helm of the State Department might soon be coming to the end. Tensions between the two men - who could forget "morongate"? - have apparently worsened since the spring, when reports first emerged that Tillerson and Trump had different views on important foreign policy issues like the Iran deal and North Korea. Trump was famously accused of "castrating" his secretary of state in the eyes of the global diplomatic community when he chided Tillerson not to bother pursuing diplomatic talks with the North Koreans.


Pompeo has long been rumored (as we pointed out in October) to be Tillerson"s obvious replacement, given his foreign policy expertise as head of the CIA and a reportedly close relationship with Trump - the two meet every day for Trump"s intelligence briefing. Pompeo"s reportedly become "a trusted policy adviser" to the president, according to the Times. Before the CIA, Pompeo was a Congressman from Vice President Mike Pence"s home state of Indiana.


And now, the New York Times is reporting that Tillerson could be out "within weeks." For the former ExxonMobile CEO, an end-of-year exit would make his time in office the shortest of any secretary of state whose tenure was not ended by a change in presidents in nearly 120 years. Tillerson has reportedly been holding out until year end to try to preserve some dignity.


Pompeo would then be replaced at the CIA by Senator Tom Cotton, a Republican from Arkansas who has been a key ally of the president on national security matters, according to the White House plan. Cotton has signaled that he would accept the job if offered, said the officials, who insisted on anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations before decisions are announced.


The Times reporting comes with one important caveat: It"s still not immediately clear whether Trump has given final approval to the plan, but he has been said to have soured on Tillerson and in general is ready to make a change at the State Department.



White House chief of staff John Kelly developed the transition plan and has discussed it with other officials, who presumably shared it with the Times. Under his plan, the shake-up of the national security team would happen around the end of the year or shortly afterward.


As the Times points out, Tillerson"s tenure has been marred by "turbulent" relations with his boss:


The ouster of Mr. Tillerson would end a turbulent reign at the State Department for the former Exxon Mobile chief executive, who has been largely marginalized over the last year. Mr. Trump and Mr. Tillerson have been at odds over a host of major issues, including the Iran nuclear deal, the confrontation with North Korea and a clash between Arab allies. The secretary was reported to have privately called Mr. Trump a “moron” and the president publicly criticized Mr. Tillerson for “wasting his time” with a diplomatic outreach to North Korea.



Pompeo"s move is, of course, a setback for Nikki Haley, Trump"s ambassador to the UN, a position that"s typically seen as a stepping stone to leading the state department.


Cotton"s promotion wouldbe a reward for one of Trump"s most loyal supporters in the Senate on national security and immigration issues. However, Cotton"s ascension is not yet completely assured: There"s still some debate about whether he"d be more use to Trump in Langley, or in the senate.


If Cotton leaves, his seat will be up for grabs in 2018.


Tillerson would mark the latest in a string of more than a dozen high-profile departures from the Trump administration during its first year. He"s also probably the most high-profile figure to depart since Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price resigned after being exposed for taking expensive chartered flights at taxpayer expense.


Sally Yates
Michael Flynn
Katie Walsh
Preet Bharara
James Comey
Michael Dubke
Walter Shaub
Mark Corralo
Sean Spicer
Micheal Short
Reince Priebus
Anthony Scaramucci
Steve Bannon
Sebastian Gorka
Tom Price


...and (maybe) Rex Tillerson?









Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Mauldin: 8 Charts That Show How Insane The Economy Is Today

Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,


Since the 2008 financial crisis, there’s been a growing number of ridiculous, inane, and otherwise nonsensical economic interventions from our central bankers that fill the daily economic headlines.


I have gone from the occasional smile to scratching my head now and then to "WTF" moments.


All that said, the economists who designed these interventions had their reasons. They thought lower interest rates and liquidity injections would create jobs, spur investment, and eventually produce inflation.


Then the idea was to reduce the stimulus before inflation got out of control. The problem is that none of these wishes came true.


The Philips Curve That Doesn’t Work Anymore


The key gauge of central bankers for assessing this tricky process is the unemployment rate.


An economy at “full employment” is one in which inflation is right around the corner. The theoretical relationship looks something like this – chart from Gary Shilling.



In fact, we now have very low unemployment, accompanied by stubbornly low inflation.


Why is that? No one really knows.


All sorts of theories are floating around, but none have yet proven helpful in restoring the Phillips Curve.


Here’s reality, via Gary Shilling:



 


The Median Household Is Back Where It Was in the 1990s


The result is a strange economy in which the people who want jobs mostly have them—but remain deeply dissatisfied, stressed, overleveraged, and often angry. See this graph of real median household income, from my friend Murat Koprulu.



This is median, not average, household income. That means half of households are doing better and half worse. It’s also inflation-adjusted, so the amounts are consistent over time.


We see that the median family is roughly back where it was 20 years ago, in the mid-1990s. Worse, it’s still far below where it was ten years ago before the financial crisis. Is it any wonder people are mad?


 


Education Has Become a Risk Rather Than an Opportunity


One more absurdity.


In the US, we often think education is the key to getting ahead. That"s not necessarily the case anymore. Here’s another chart Murat sent me, showing real average hourly wages by education level.



From 2007–2014, possessing an advanced degree enabled you to “get ahead” only in a relative sense. Your wages stayed flat while those of the less-educated fell.


Notice how having “some college” was actually more negative for wages than having only a high school education. How can that be?


Possibly because going to college without obtaining a degree leaves you in debt with less practical experience than your peers who went straight to work after high school.


To that point, student debt is quickly becoming a problem for everyone. Look at this chart from Grant Williams on student loan debt held by the federal government. Do we add that to our national debt?



Taxpayers are on the hook for over a trillion dollars in student debt. Unlike mortgage or business debt, student debt is backed by no tangible asset you can repossess. It bought knowledge that now hopefully resides in the student’s brain, but it may have just gone in one ear and out the other.


That makes this debt uniquely risky. You and I are taking that risk, like it or not.


 


Stock Market Cap Is Near the Dot-Com Peak


And here’s another chart from Grant Williams, showing stock market capitalization to GDP. We are only another healthy bull market run away from being back to dot-com bubble levels. A run that many of my friends firmly believe awaits us.



The US stock market as a percentage of GDP is now far bigger than it was at the housing bubble’s peak, and it’s rapidly approaching the dot-com bubble peak. That ought to make us a little nervous as we watch the Dow hit new all-time highs.


 


Insane Currency Pegs and the Global Market Driven by False Beliefs


And we will close this series of anomalies with a note I got from Louis Gave this morning. Rather than just looking for absurdities in the developed world, Louis’ research team at GaveKal scours the entire world in depth every day.


So he gives us a few lesser-known absurdities. [My comments will be in brackets.]


Usually currency pegs are not a bad place to start when looking for absurdities.


What are the odds of Lebanon keeping its peg now that Saudi won’t bankroll it? After all, you have a pegged currency with current account deficit in double digits relative to GDP:



And once the Lebanese peg goes, will it be like Thailand in 1997 with Bahrein, Qatar, Oman, Egypt, Pakistan and ultimately Saudi all following suit?


If so, you can kiss goodbye to those large defense orders…


There are many other ideas. A lot of them linked to the craziness in the bond market (negative swiss yields, Italian junk below UST, etc…). But how about this one:



Okay, John back. Please note the serious level of sarcasm in the right-hand column above: “Good thing there is no common thread in the above names...” It’s all tech and all digital in the top seven. Note, however, that Exxon Mobil keeps hanging in there.


The above is why I love Louis and read his analysis every time I get a chance.


*  *  *


Join hundreds of thousands of other readers of Thoughts from the Frontline


Sharp macroeconomic analysis, big market calls, and shrewd predictions are all in a week’s work for visionary thinker and acclaimed financial expert John Mauldin. Since 2001, investors have turned to his Thoughts from the Frontline to be informed about what’s really going on in the economy. Join hundreds of thousands of readers, and get it free in your inbox every week.









Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Faux Outrage: Reuters Says Tillerson Violating "Child Soldier Laws"; Ignores Same Policies Under Clinton-Obama

Late last night, Reuters published an "exclusive" report which was undoubtedly intended to be a "gotcha" hit piece on Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, courtesy of some disgruntled Obama/Clinton holdovers at the State Department.  The report from Reuters came after they got their hands on a confidential "dissent" memo, signed by " a dozen U.S. State Department officials" accusing Tillerson of violating the "Child Soldiers Prevention Act."  Here"s a summary from Reuters:








A group of about a dozen U.S. State Department officials have taken the unusual step of formally accusing Secretary of State Rex Tillerson of violating a federal law designed to stop foreign militaries from enlisting child soldiers, according to internal government documents reviewed by Reuters.


 


A confidential State Department “dissent” memo not previously reported said Tillerson breached the Child Soldiers Prevention Act when he decided in June to exclude Iraq, Myanmar, and Afghanistan from a U.S. list of offenders in the use of child soldiers. This was despite the department publicly acknowledging that children were being conscripted in those countries.


 


Keeping the countries off the annual list makes it easier to provide them with U.S. military assistance. Iraq and Afghanistan are close allies in the fight against Islamist militants, while Myanmar is an emerging ally to offset China’s influence in Southeast Asia.


 


Documents reviewed by Reuters also show Tillerson’s decision was at odds with a unanimous recommendation by the heads of the State Department’s regional bureaus overseeing embassies in the Middle East and Asia, the U.S. envoy on Afghanistan and Pakistan, the department’s human rights office and its own in-house lawyers.


 


“Beyond contravening U.S. law, this decision risks marring the credibility of a broad range of State Department reports and analyses and has weakened one of the U.S. government’s primary diplomatic tools to deter governmental armed forces and government-supported armed groups from recruiting and using children in combat and support roles around the world,” said the July 28 memo.



It"s all outrageous right?  How could Secretary of State Tillerson "support" the conscription of child soldiers in Iraq, Myanmar, and Afghanistan...who would do such a thing?


Meanwhile, according to Reuters the decision by Tillerson to exclude these countries has resulted in mass opposition in the State Department, "including the rare use of what is known as the "dissent channel"....all of which sounds very serious.








Reuters reported in June that Tillerson had disregarded internal recommendations on Iraq, Myanmar and Afghanistan. The new documents reveal the scale of the opposition in the State Department, including the rare use of what is known as the “dissent channel,” which allows officials to object to policies without fear of reprisals.


 


The views expressed by the U.S. officials illustrate ongoing tensions between career diplomats and the former chief of Exxon Mobil Corp appointed by President Donald Trump to pursue an “America First” approach to diplomacy.



Of course, a simple Google search would quickly reveal that the "Child Soldiers Prevention Act" was first implemented in 2009 and, at least through 2015, out of the three countries currently causing concerns at State, only Myanmar (Burma) has consistently appeared on the list...


CSPA


All of which begs the question was the Clinton-Obama administration not at all worried about child soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan?  Or maybe these "dozen U.S. State Department Officials" only became aware of the problem in these countries in 2017 just as the Trump administration took over the Executive Branch?


Certainly this can"t all come down to a mainstream news organization attempting to smear the Secretary of State for simply continuing the same policies that were consistently utilized by the Obama White House and Clinton State Department with impunity...right?









Tuesday, October 17, 2017

WORLD’S LARGEST OIL COMPANIES: Deep Trouble As Profits Vaporize While Debts Skyrocket

SRSrocco


By the SRSrocco Report,


The world"s largest oil companies are in serious trouble as their balance sheets deteriorate from higher costs, falling profits and skyrocketing debt.  The glory days of the highly profitable global oil companies have come to an end.  All that remains now is a mere shadow of the once mighty oil industry that will be forced to continue cannibalizing itself to produce the last bit of valuable oil.


I realize my extremely unfavorable opinion of the world"s oil industry runs counter to many mainstream energy analysts, however, their belief that business, as usual, will continue for decades, is entirely unfounded.  Why?  Because, they do not understand the ramifications of the Falling EROI - Energy Returned On Invested, and its impact on the global economy.


For example, Chevron was able to make considerable profits in 1997 when the oil price was $19 a barrel.  However, the company suffered a loss in 2016 when the price was more than double at $44 last year.  And, it"s even worse than that if we compare the company"s profit to total revenues.  Chevron enjoyed a $3.2 billion net income profit on revenues of $42 billion in 1997 versus a $497 million loss on total sales of $114 billion in 2016.  Even though Chevron"s revenues nearly tripled in twenty years, its profit was decimated by the falling EROI.


Unfortunately, energy analysts, who are clueless to the amount of destruction taking place in the U.S. and global oil industry by the falling EROI, continue to mislead a public that is totally unprepared for what is coming.  To provide a more realistic view of the disintegrating energy industry, I will provide data from seven of the largest oil companies in the world.


The World"s Major Oil Companies Debt Explode Since The 2008 Financial Crisis


To save the world from falling into total collapse during the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed and Central Banks embarked on the most massive money printing scheme in history.  One side-effect of the massive money printing (and the purchasing of assets) by the central banks, was that it pushed the price of oil to a record $100+ a barrel for more than three years.  While the large oil companies reported handsome profits due to the high oil price, many of them spent a great deal of capital to produce this oil.


For instance, the seven top global oil companies that I focused on made a combined $213 billion in cash from operations in 2013. However, they also forked out $230 billion in capital expenditures.  Thus, the net free cash flow from these major oil companies was a negative $17 billion... and that doesn"t include the $44 billion they paid in dividends to their shareholders in 2013.  Even though the price of oil was $109 in 2013; these seven oil companies added $45 billion to their long-term debt:



As we can see, the total amount of long-term debt in the group (Petrobras, Shell, BP, Total, Chevron, Exxon & Statoil) increased from $227 billion in 2012 to $272 billion in 2013.  Isn"t that ironic that the debt ($45 billion) rose nearly the same amount as the group"s dividend payouts ($44 billion)?  Of course, we can"t forget about the negative $17 billion in free cash flow in 2013, but here we see evidence that the top seven global oil companies were borrowing money even in 2013, at $109 a barrel oil, to pay their dividends.


Since the 2008 global economic and financial crisis, the top seven oil companies have seen their total combined debt explode four times, from $96 billion to $379 billion currently.  You would think with these energy companies enjoying a $100+ oil price for more than three years; they would be lowering their debt, not increasing it.  Regrettably, the cost for companies to replace reserves, produce oil and share profits with shareholders was more than the $110 oil price.


There lies the rub....


One of the disadvantages of skyrocketing debt is the rising amount of interest the company has to pay to service that debt.  If we look at the chart above, Brazil"s Petrobras is the clear winner in the group by adding the most debt.  Petrobras"s debt surged from $21 billion in 2008 to $109 billion last year.  As Petrobras added debt, it also had to pay out more to service that debt.  In just eight years, the annual interest amount Petrobras paid to service its debt increased from $793 million in 2008 to $6 billion last year.  Sadly, Petrobras"s rising interest payment has caused another nasty side-effect which cut dividend payouts to its shareholders to ZERO for the past two years.


Petrobras Annual Dividend Payments:


2008 = $4.7 billion


2009 = $7.7 billion


2010 = $5.4 billion


2011 = $6.4 billion


2012 = $3.3 billion


2013 = $2.6 billion


2014 = $3.9 billion


2015 = ZERO


2016 = ZERO


You see, this is a perfect example of how the Falling EROI guts an oil company from the inside out.  The sad irony of the situation at Petrobras is this:


If you are a shareholder, you"re screwed, and if you invested funds (in company bonds, etc.) to receive a higher interest payment, you"re also screwed because you will never get back your initial investment.  So, investors are screwed either way.  This is what happens during the final stage of collapsing oil industry.


Another negative consequence of the Falling EROI on these major oil companies" financial statements is the decline in profits as the cost to produce oil rises more than the economic price the market can afford.


Major Oil Companies" Profits Vaporize... Even At Higher Oil Prices


To be able to understand just how bad the financial situation has become at the world"s largest oil companies, we need to go back in time and compare the industry"s profitability versus the oil price.  To find a year when the oil price was about the same as it was in 2016, we have to return to 2004, when the average oil price was $38.26 versus $43.67 last year.  Yes, the oil price was lower in 2004 than in 2016, but I can assure you, these oil companies weren"t complaining.


In 2004, the combined net income of these seven oil companies was almost $100 billion..... $99.2 billion to be exact.  Every oil company in the group made a nice profit in 2004 on a $38 oil price.  However, last year, the net profits in the group plunged to only $10.5 billion, even at a higher $43 oil price:



Even with a $5 increase in the price of oil last year compared to 2004, these oil companies combined net income profit fell nearly 90%.  How about them apples.  Of the seven companies listed in the chart above, only four made profits last year, while three lost money.  Exxon and Total enjoyed the highest profits in the group, while Petrobras and Statoil suffered the largest losses:



Furthermore, the financial situation is in much worse shape because "net income" accounting does not factor in the companies" capital expenditures or dividend payouts.  Regardless, the world"s top oil companies" profitability has vaporized even at a higher oil price.


Now, another metric that provides us with more disturbing evidence of the Falling EROI in the oil industry is the collapse of  the "Return On Capital Employed."  Basically, the Return On Capital Employed is just dividing the company"s earnings (before taxes and interest) by its total assets minus current liabilities.  In 2004, the seven companies listed above posted between 20-40% Return On Capital Employed.  However, this fell precipitously over the next decade and are now registering in the low single digits:



In 2004, we can see that BP had the lowest Return On Capital Employed of 19.68% in the group, while Statoil had the highest at 46.20%.  If we throw out the highest and lowest figures, the average for the group was 29%.  Now, compare that to the average of 2.4% for the group in 2016, and that does not including BP and Chevron"s negative returns (shown in Dark Blue & Orange).


NOTE:  I failed to include the Statoil graph line (Magenta)  when I made the chart, but I added the figures afterward.  For Statoil to experience a Return On Capital Employed decline from 46.2% in 2004 to less than 1% in 2016, suggests something is seriously wrong.


We must remember, the high Return On Capital Employed by the group in 2004, was based on a $38 price of oil, while the low single-digit returns by the oil companies in 2016 were derived from a higher price of $43.  Unfortunately, the world"s largest oil companies are no longer able to enjoy high returns on a low oil price.  This is bad news because the market can"t afford a high oil price unless the Fed and Central Banks come back in with an even larger amount of QE (Quantitative Easing) money printing.


I have one more chart that shows just how bad the Falling EROI is destroying the world"s top oil companies.  In 2004, these seven oil companies enjoyed a combined net Free Cash Flow minus dividends of a positive $34 billion versus a negative $39.1 billion in 2016:



Let me explain these figures.  After these oil companies paid their capital expenditures and dividends to shareholders in 2004, they had a net $34 billion left over.  However, last year these companies were in the HOLE for $39.1 billion after paying capital expenditures and dividends.  Thus, many of them had to borrow money just to pay dividends.


To understand how big of a change has taken place at the oil companies since 2004, here are the figures below:


Top 7 Major Oil Companies Free Cash Flow Figures


2004 Cash From Operations = ............$139.6 billion


2004 Capital Expenditures = .................$67.7 billion


2004 Free Cash Flow = ...........................$71.9 billion


2004 Shareholder Dividends = ..............$37.9 billion


2004 Free Cash Flow - Dividends = $34 billion


2016 Cash From Operations = .................$118.5 billion


2016 Capital Expenditures = ....................$117.5 billion


2016 Free Cash Flow = ................................$1.0 billion


2016 Shareholder Dividends = ...................$40.1 billion


2016 Free Cash Flow - Dividends = -$39.1 billion


Here we can see that the top seven global oil companies made more in cash from operations in 2004 ($139.6 billion) compared to 2016 ($118.5 billion).   That extra $21 billion in operating cash in 2004 versus 2016 was realized even at a lower oil price.  However, what has really hurt the group"s Free Cash Flow, is the much higher capital expenditures of $117.5 billion in 2016 compared to the $67.7 billion in 2004.  You will notice that the net combined dividends didn"t increase that much in the two periods... only by $3 billion.


So, the lower cash from operations and the higher capital expenditures have taken a BIG HIT on the balance sheets of these oil companies.  This is precisely why the long-term debt is skyrocketing, especially over the past three years as the oil price fell below $100 in 2014.  To continue making their shareholders happy, many of these companies are borrowing money to pay dividends.  Unfortunately, going further into debt to pay shareholders is not a prudent long-term business model.


The world"s major oil companies will continue to struggle with the oil price in the $50 range.  While some analysts forecast that higher oil prices are on the horizon, I disagree.  Yes, it"s true that oil prices may spike higher for a while, but the trend will be lower as the U.S. and global economies start to contract.  As oil prices fall to $40 and below, oil companies will begin to cut capital expenditures even further.  Thus, the cycle of lower prices and the continued gutting of the global oil industry will move into high gear.


There is one option that might provide these oil companies with a buffer... and that is a new even larger Fed and Central Bank money printing scheme which would result in severe inflation and possibly hyperinflation.  But, that won"t be a long-term solution, instead just another lousy band-aid in a series of band-aids that have only postponed the inevitable.


The coming bankruptcy of the once mighty global oil industry will be the death-knell of the world economy.  Without oil, the global economy grinds to a halt.  Of course, this will not occur overnight.  It will take time.  However, the evidence shows that a considerable wound has already taken place in an industry that has provided the world with much-needed oil for more than a century.


Lastly, without trying to be a broken record, the peak and decline of global oil production will destroy the value of most STOCKS, BONDS and REAL ESTATE.  If you have placed most of your bests in one of these assets, you have my sympathies.


Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report.

Friday, October 13, 2017

"Worse Than Big Tobacco": How Big Pharma Fuels The Opioid Epidemic




“I used to think that there was nothing more reprehensible than what the tobacco industry did in suppressing what it knew about the adverse effects of an addictive and dangerous product,” says Berger.



“But I was wrong. The drug makers are worse than Big Tobacco.”



The U.S. prescription drug industry has opened a new frontier in public havoc, manipulating markets and deceptively marketing opioid drugs that are known to addict and even kill. It’s a national emergency that claims 90 lives per day. Berger lays much of the blame at the feet of companies that have played every dirty trick imaginable to convince doctors to overprescribe medication that can transform fresh-faced teens and mild-mannered adults into zombified junkies.


So how have they gotten away with it?


A Market for Lies


The prescription drug industry is a strange beast, born of perverse thinking about markets and economics, explains Berger. In a normal market, you shop around to find the best price and quality on something you want or need - a toaster, a new car. Businesses then compete to supply what you’re looking for. You’ve got choices: If the price is too high, you refuse to buy, or you wait until the market offers something better. It’s the supposed beauty of supply and demand.


But the prescription drug “market” operates nothing like that. Drug makers game the patent and regulatory systems to create monopolies over every single one of their products. Berger explains that when drug makers get patent approval for brand-name pharmaceuticals, the patents create market exclusivity for those products—protecting them from competition from both generics and brand-name drugs that treat the same condition. The manufacturers can now exploit their monopoly positions, created by the patents, by marketing their drugs for conditions for which they never got regulatory approval. This dramatically increases sales. They can also charge very high prices because if you’re in pain or dying, you’ll pay virtually anything.


Using all these tricks, opioid manufacturers have been able to exploit the public and have created a whole new generation of desperate addicts. They monopolize their products and then, as Berger puts it, “market the hell out of them for unapproved and dangerous uses.”


Opioids are a drug class that includes opium derivatives like heroin (introduced by German drug maker Bayer in 1898), synthetics like fentanyl, and prescription painkillers like oxycodone (brand name: OxyContin). A number of factors are aggravating the addiction crisis: There has been a movement in medicine to treat pain more aggressively, while at the same time wide-ranging economic distress has generated a desire to escape a dismal reality. But a key driving force is doctors—who have been wooed by pharmaceutical marketing reps—overprescribing for chronic pain.





“For the first time since the years after heroin was invented,” writes investigative journalist Sam Quinones in Dreamland: The True Tale of America’s Opiate Epidemic, “the root of the scourge was not some street gang or drug mafia but doctors and drug companies.”



Doctors were once reluctant to write prescriptions for opioids. The U.S. drug regulator, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), would only approve such drugs for severe cases like cancer patients in chronic agony or certain people in short-term pain after, say, an operation. But representatives of Connecticut-based drug maker Purdue, which released OxyContin in 1996, along with other companies, began to flood doctors’ offices with reports asserting that using the drug for off-label purposes was harmless. Often the targets were primary care physicians with little training in addiction. Have a chronic arthritis case? Give your patient OxyContin. Tell folks take it every day, for weeks, even years, to treat just about any kind of chronic pain. The upshot was addiction —typically not because people were getting high for fun, but because they used a legal drug in precisely the way the doctor ordered.


Purdue and others whisked doctors to stylish retreats to push them to prescribe drugs for uses not approved by U.S. regulators—a marketing strategy banned by federal law. They even created fake grassroots organizations to make it seem as though patients were demanding more prescriptions. Pharmaceutical companies like to dodge responsibility for the opioid crisis by blaming dishonest distributors and pointing out that they’re not the ones prescribing or handing out drugs to patients. True enough: They don’t need to, because they’ve done their work hooking you long before the drug is in your hands.





“The marketing is not only fraudulent; it’s incredibly elaborate,” says Berger.



“Fake scientific studies promote the lie that opioids are better than other medications for pain. They’ve gone to just about any length. Bribery, you name it. It’s outrageous.”



OxyContin is so addictive that it can create physical dependency in a matter of weeks. As drug makers and doctors who began to dole out pills by the handful in pain clinics learned, addicts do not behave like ordinary consumers. They don’t “choose” to buy or to wait until next week. They need their drug right away and will do anything to get it because if they don’t, they will suffer excruciating symptoms.


A Los Angeles Times report shows that among the lies Purdue spread about OxyContin was that one pill subdued pain for twelve hours. Except that for many patients it wears off much sooner, exposing them to horrific pain and withdrawal. Purdue knew this, but feared lower sales if it admitted the truth. So sales reps advised doctors to just give stronger doses, which increased the addiction risk.


As the money from hooked patients piled up, so did the bodies. So many bodies that earlier this year the Ohio Coroner’s Office found nowhere to store them


In 2007, Purdue pleaded guilty in federal court in Virginia to misleading doctors and patients about OxyContin’s safety and paid a $600 million fine. But that sum was hardly an annoyance. From 1995 to 2015, Purdue made $35 billion from OxyContin sales alone. The Sacklers, who own the company, are now one of the richest families in America, as revealed by this triumphant Forbes spread. They know that lax regulation keeps the heat off, and that even litigation and criminal prosecutions can do little to stop them. Berger says that until such legal programs are massive in scale and scope, companies will go on with business as usual.


“We have to have injunctive relief [a court order to stop a behavior] that bans the marketing to doctors of opioids completely for unapproved uses, as well as an expansion of the FDA and DEA [Drug Enforcement Agency] to specifically target the drugs,” says Berger. His law firm, Berger & Montague, is involved in the effort to seek relief for the city of Philadelphia, which has seen above-average opioid prescribing and suffered the highest rates of fatal drug overdoses in the state last year.


Even though prescriptions have been slightly reduced across the country since 2012, Philadelphia is finding out what happens to many people hooked on opioids when they can’t get a prescription or find the price too high: They turn to smack. Fatal overdoses of heroin, oxycodone’s close cousin, have been skyrocketing since 2007 across the country.


“Landscapes of Despair”


The opium poppy has been part of human history since at least 3,400 B.C. when it was cultivated in Mesopotamia as the “joy plant.” Derivates, such as laudanum and morphine, offered more convenient and, people wrongly believed, safer ways to get the plant’s benefits. Bayer originally touted heroin as a non-addictive substitute for morphine, even for children, until it was outlawed in the U.S. in 1925. Rendering it illegal did not stop it from destroying the lives of many of America’s most celebrated artists, from Billie Holiday to Philip Seymour Hoffman.


Drug overdoses now kill more people than gun homicides and car crashes combined. In 2015, nearly two-thirds of all overdoses had one thing in common: opioids. As more and more names appear in the obituaries linked to opioid overdoses, most recently Buddhist teacher Michael Stone, Americans begin to wonder who is next.


Syracuse University’s Shannon Monnat, a sociologist focused on rural issues and an INET grantee, has been studying the epidemic and how it impacts various populations. Her research reveals that the rise in drug-induced deaths has been especially sharp among middle-aged people (45-55), with prescription opioid overdoses increasingly impacting both middle-aged and older populations. Heroin, whose sedating and euphoric effects are very similar to prescription opioids, looks to be the culprit in more young adult overdoses.


Monnat considers how the opioid crisis points to bigger societal problems impacting the economy, educational institutions, the health care system, political systems, and communities. Her work centers on investigating the characteristics of what she calls “landscapes of despair”—places where people are hurting economically and socially, like Appalachia, the Industrial Midwest, and parts of New England. She points out that persistent disadvantage and long-term poverty are clearly connected to the opioid crisis, noting that many of the areas most impacted were once robust centers of manufacturing before jobs moved to other countries.


Opioid addiction seems to thrive in downwardly mobile small cities in rural areas—but not all of them.





“What’s fascinating is that some of these areas have very high mortality rates from drug overdose, like Appalachia,” say Monnat.



“But others, like the Southern “Black Belt” [a region which stretches across Alabama and Mississippi], have not seen such rises.”



Originally named for its rich, dark, soil - which attracted cotton planters in the 19th century - the Black Belt has a large African American population. The area has a history of unremitting poverty, low incomes, high unemployment, and high mortality. Yet despite many hardships, which are linked the legacy of slavery, Monnat says that the region is also distinct for its “very tight-knit communities, strong kinship networks, and other networks where people can find emotional support.” It seems that when people have somewhere to turn in hard times, they may build up immunity to an epidemic like the opioid scourge.


Ironically, another factor that may have protected these communities is prejudice, as Quinones discusses in Dreamland. The low-profile heroin dealers originating from a small municipality on Mexico’s west coast who are associated with the current opioid scourge have tended to fear black Americans, preferring to target white communities. They also avoid big cities where large cartels are already established. So small, predominately white towns are their sweet spot.


Appalachia is known for kinship networks, but it also has a legacy of isolation and an outlaw tradition associated with the history of moonshining and bootlegging which can feed into today’s underground selling and distribution of opioid drugs. In this region, much of the struggling white working class has experienced economic distress with little hope of relief from America’s political system. Democrats often openly disdain “rednecks” and “hillbillies” while concentrating on identity politics rather than economic hardship. Republicans promote policies of free trade and deregulation that cast the region further into destitution.


Monnat has found that counties with large numbers of people employed in physical labor—especially occupations with higher rates of disability—have higher rates of drug fatalities. These are places where coal miners work in backbreaking positions and military veterans suffer the pain of injuries. She observes that drug companies have besieged these areas with aggressive marketing of pain pills. “In Appalachia, you’d see mining companies with physicians on staff prescribing opioids to keep people in pain working,” she says. “That was happening before OxyContin, but companies like Purdue targeted these communities to push OxyContin as a safer alternative to other pain medications.”


The National Institutes of Health (NIH) report that the opioid epidemic, which started as a regional crisis, is now a national crisis. It casts a pall over far more than individual lives; it is now decimating communities and even helping to reshape the American political landscape. Monnat finds a relationship between the landscapes of despair and the 2016 presidential election. Voting patterns show that areas in which President Trump did better than expected, like Pennsylvania and Ohio, were also places where opioid overdoses and deaths from alcohol and suicide occurred at high rates over the past decade.


During his campaign, Trump expressed concern for people in regions like Appalachia and flung stinging barbs at the politicians who had failed them. These voters supported him in high numbers, and yet sadly, his policies will likely give more power to the pharmaceutical companies that have turned their suffering into stock windfalls.


Profit Trumps People


Trump the campaigner shook his fist at Big Pharma for “getting away with murder” - one of those statements that occasionally drops from his lips with atomic accuracy. But Trump the President has done an about-face. As journalist David Dayen has pointed out, a draft of an executive order on drug prices (which never materialized) called for deregulation of the FDA and favors to industry. It was written by none other than a pharmaceutical lobbyist.


In March, President Trump issued an executive order creating a commission to study drug addiction and the opioid epidemic. The commission, headed by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, has so far released recommendations which locate the overprescribing problem “in doctor’s offices and hospitals in every state in our nation,” while making nary a mention of pharmaceutical marketing departments.  The panel suggests insufficient remedies like new treatment facilities and educating schoolchildren on the dangers of opioids, along with ineffective ones like more funds to Homeland Security. Regulation of Big Pharma? Nope.


The federal government did announce that it would team up with drug makers to research and generate non-opioid pain medications and additional medication-assisted treatment options. Among the participants? Purdue.


Economist William Lazonick of the University of Massachusetts Lowell and an INET grantee, agrees with Berger that the way the pharmaceutical industry operates amounts to a catastrophe for the public.





“It’s crazy that each and every drug is not treated like a regulated monopoly,” he says. “Taxpayers fund much of the research that goes into creating these drugs through the NIH and other public research facilities. Moreover, the companies are gifted with a monopoly through patents which last two decades.”



Lazonick notes that Big Pharma claims that it needs high profits to keep inventing new drugs, but it spends more of its profits buying back its own stock than increasing investment in R&D on new drugs. Executives running drug companies are incentivized to make profits any way they can because they are rewarded by high stock prices. Lazonick explains that they stoke those stock prices by gouging patients or lying about the safety of products—whatever it takes.


He observes that for the past several decades America has undergone a devastating experiment based on the philosophy of economist Milton Friedman, who claimed that the only social responsibility of a company is to make a profit. Untimely deaths from tobacco-related illnesses, auto safety failures, and now, harmful opioid drugs, prove that the experiment is a tragic failure.


Lazonick sees the need for nothing less than a new structure of corporate governance that ensures the ethical responsibly of drug makers to do what they are supposed to do: create high-quality, low-cost products that are safe. The current structure, based on the misguided idea that companies should be run for the sole purpose of enriching shareholders, is particularly perverse when it comes to products that are potentially fatal. The problem with this model is that when shareholders are the only people who matter, the rest of us suffer.


Since taxpayers support pharmaceutical companies by funding public research and many other things they require to do business, Lazonick says it is only fair and logical that someone representing the public sit on their boards. Berger adds that companies should be required to make drugs widely available at affordable prices in return for their use of publicly-funded, basic research at no cost whatsoever.


America, for the time being, stands out among nations in letting pharmaceutical companies run amok to inflate drug prices, advertise and market drugs without proper regulation, and use taxpayer resources while exposing them to egregious harm.


“The only thing America’s drug companies are competitive about,” says Lazonick, “is getting people addicted."

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

"Today, The Music Stops..."

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,


Today’s the day.



After months of preparing financial markets for this news, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce that it will finally begin shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.


I know, that probably sound reeeeally boring. A bunch of central bankers talking about their balance sheet.


But it’s phenomenally important. And I’ll explain why-


When the Global Financial Crisis started in 2008, the Federal Reserve (along with just about every central bank in the world) took the unprecedented step of conjuring trillions of dollars out of thin air.


In the Fed’s case, it was roughly $3.5 trillion, about 25% of the size of the entire US economy at the time.


That’s a lot of money.


And after nearly a decade of this free money policy, there is more money in the financial system than ever before.


Economists have a measure for money supply called “M2”. And M2 is at a record high — nearly $9 trillion higher than at the start of the 2008 crisis.


Now, one might expect that, over time, as the population and economy grow, the amount of money in the system would increase.


But even on a per-capita basis, and relative to the size of US GDP, there is more money in the system than there has ever been, at least in the history of modern central banking.


And that has consequences.


One of those consequences is that asset prices have exploded.


Stocks are at all-time highs. Bonds are at all-time highs. Many property markets are at all-time highs. Even the prices of alternative assets like private equity and artwork are at all-time highs.


But isn’t that a good thing?


Well, let’s look at stocks as an example.


As investors, we trade our hard-earned savings for shares of a [hopefully] successful, well-managed business.


That’s what stocks represent– ownership interests in businesses. So investors are ultimately buying a share of a company’s net assets, profits, and free cash flow.


Here’s where it gets interesting.


Let’s look at Exxon Mobil…


In 2006, the last full year before the Federal Reserve started any monetary shenanigans, Exxon reported $365 billion in revenue, profit (net income) of nearly $40 billion and free cash flow (i.e. the money that’s available to pay out to shareholders) of $33.8 billion.


At the time, the company had $6.6 billion in debt.


Ten years later, Exxon’s full-year 2016 revenue was $226 billion, net income was $7.8 billion, free cash flow was $5.9 billion and the company had an unbelievable debt level of $28.9 billion.


In other words, compared to its performance in 2006, Exxon’s 2016 revenue dropped nearly 40%, due to the decline in oil prices.


Plus its profits and free cash flow collapsed by more than 80%. And debt skyrocketed by over 4x.


So what do you think happened to the stock price over this period?


It must have gone down, right? I mean… if investors are essentially paying for a share of the business’ profits, and those profits are 80% less, then the share of the business should also decline.


Except — that’s not what happened. Exxon’s stock price at the end of 2006 was around $75. By the end of 2016 it was around $90, 20% higher.


And it’s not just Exxon. This same curiosity fits to many of the largest companies in the world.


General Electric reported $13.9 billion in free cash flow in 2006. Last year’s free cash flow was NEGATIVE.


Plus, the company’s book value, i.e. its ‘net worth’, plummeted from $122 billion in 2006 to $77 billion in 2016.


So investors’ share of the free cash flow is essentially worthless, while their share of the net assets has also fallen dramatically.


GE’s stock was actually down slightly in 2016 compared to 2006. But the minor stock decline is nothing compared to the train wreck in the company’s financial statements.


Between 2006 and 2016, McDonalds reported only a tiny increase in revenue. And in terms of bottom line, McDonalds 2016’s profit was about 30% higher than it was in 2006.


McDonalds’ debt soared from $8.4 billion to $25.8. And the company’s book value, according to its own financial statements, dropped from $15.8 billion to NEGATIVE $2 billion.


So over ten years, McDonald’s saw a 30% increase in profits, but took on so much debt that they wiped out shareholders’ book value.


And yet the company’s stock price has TRIPLED.


Coca Cola. IBM. Johnson & Johnson.


Company after company, we can see businesses that are performing marginally better (or in some cases WORSE). They’ve taken on FAR more debt than ever before.


Yet their stock prices are insanely higher.


How is that even possible? Why are investors paying more money for shares of a business that isn’t much better than before?


There’s really only one explanation: there’s way too much money in the system.


All that money the Fed printed over the years has created an enormous bubble, pushing up the prices of assets to record highs even though their fundamental values haven’t really improved.


As the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, “Financial assets across developed economies are more overvalued than at any other time in recent centuries,” i.e. at least since 1800.


Investors are paying far more than ever for their investments, but receiving only marginally more value in return. And they’re actually excited about it.


This doesn’t make sense. We don’t get excited to pay more and receive less at the grocery store.


But when underperforming assets fetch top dollar, people feel like they’re wealthier. Crazy.


Today the Fed should formally announce that after nearly a decade, it’s going to start vacuuming up a lot of that money it printed in 2008.


Bottom line: they’re going to start cutting the lights and turning off the music.


And given the enormous impact that this policy had on asset prices, it would be foolish to think its reversal will be consequence-free.


Do you have a Plan B?

Friday, September 8, 2017

Putin Regrets Awarding Tillerson With Russian "Order of Friendship"

After reports surfaced last month that President Donald Trump was becoming “frustrated” with his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, another world leader has expressed regret at honoring the former ExxonMobil CEO. Russian President Vladimir Putin joked during public remarks on Thursday that Tillerson had “fallen in with the wrong company” since being awarded with a Russian state honor for his contribution to Russian-U.S. relations, according to Reuters.


The remark was emblematic of the deterioration in relations between the Trump administration and Putin’s government:



Late last month, the White House ordered the closure of three Russian consulates – purportedly to achieve “parity” between the two countries’ diplomatic missions, saying the missions needed to be closed by Sept. 2. The decision, a response to Russia kicking out dozens of US diplomats earlier in the summer, provoked outrage in Russia.



Addressing a US citizens at a plenary session of an economic forum in Vladivostok, Putin said: “We awarded your compatriot Mr. Tillerson the Order of Friendship, but he seems to have fallen in with the wrong company and to be steering in the other direction,” according to Reuters.





“I hope that the wind of cooperation, friendship and reciprocity will eventually put him on the right path,” Putin added, drawing cheers from the crowd.



Back in 2013, Putin awarded Tillerson, then CEO of Exxon Mobil, the Order of Friendship for his “significant contribution to strengthening cooperation in the energy sector.”


Under Trump, the US has expanded its economic sanctions against Moscow – measures that were passed by Congress over the explicit objections of the administration, which warned that they would imperil a détente between the two world powers. Russia is, of course, still at the center of multiple probes into whether it meddled in the US presidential election. Trump had widely praised Putin during the campaign, saying he wanted to improve ties between Russia and the US to focus on areas of “mutual interest” like fighting ISIS.
 

Friday, September 1, 2017

"MAGA": There Is Now An ETF Investing In Companies That Support The GOP

The ongoing ETF insanity, which as of the end of August saw Vanguard fund inflows of $1.6 billion every day (or $100 million every single hour) has now boldly crossed over into the political arena, with the upcoming launch of the "MAGA" ETF, which hopes to "make America great again" by investing exclusively in companies that support the Republican Party, and Trump of course.


To keep it simple, the Point Bridge GOP Stock Tracker ETF will - as one would expect - list under the ticker “MAGA,” in reference to Trump"s campaign slogan. In addition to MAGA, Hal Lambert, founder of Point Bridge, is planning a set of what it calls Politically Responsible Investing products. MAGA is expected to begin trading on September 7.


Unlike other ETFs which invest in specific industries, products, or factors, the ETF strategy will instead analyze the political contributions of the employees and the PACs of S&P companies. It will then pick the top 150 Republican stocks based on their contribution data for ETF inclusion. Lambert, a major Texas Republican fundraiser, refers to the approach as “politically responsible investing.”


Speaking to the Daily Caller, Lambert said that “corporations have been very active in political contributions and those effect the outcome of elections. Many are now becoming outwardly vocal in their attacks on President Trump and Republican policies to the detriment of their shareholders and the country. Investors need to support the companies that are supportive of President Trump and the Republican Party because that drives policy across the country.”





“How can a company that has a fiduciary duty to shareholders support candidates that want higher taxes on their company which ultimately harms their shareholders? Investors should have a way to say no thank you to companies that are actively against their interests.”



Lambert said that the top five Republican contributors in the past two election cycles were: AT&T, Marathon Petroleum, Home Depot, Exxon Mobil, and Altria. “All of those stocks will be in the ETF,” Lambert said. The launch of the fund comes as major corporations are increasingly getting involved in politics (just google GOOGLE).



Before rushing in, keep this in mind: one sector fund investors will miss is the one that has been the best performing YTD: tech. As of the most recent election cycle, the MAGA ETF will not have any large technology companies that are typically Democratic in their contributions, but Lambert maintains that with 150 stocks, it still contains plenty of industry diversity.


The fund, which is expected to list on the BATS exchange, has a rather generous annual expense ratio of 0.72%. Which is why investors may want to look to cheaper, knock-offs alternatives: according to Reuters, a rival group, Active Weighting Advisors LLC in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, plans a Republican Policies Fund and a Democratic Policies Fund listed under the tickers GOP and DEMS.


Is it unclear if there will be any correlation between the performance of the GOP or DEMS and the actual approval polling of either the Republican or Democrat party, although it is very clear that

Harvey Causing "Unprecedented" Disruptions To Supplies Of "Essential" Chemicals

The unprecedented destruction wrought by Hurricane Harvey will impact the US economy in ways may not be immediately apparent. Until recently, coverage of the storm"s impact has focused on property damage and the impact on the energy industry. But in a story published Friday, Bloomberg explains the devastating impact the storm has had on Texas’s chemicals industry, which is already causing supply-chain headaches for American manufacturers who"re struggling to source the chemicals required to produce plastics and other components used in everything from milk jugs to car parts.


Indeed, if Texas"s chemicals plants are closed for an extended period, production at a potentially huge number of American manufacturers to grind to a halt.


More than 60% of the US’s production capacity for ethylene – one of the most important chemical building blocks for American manufacturers – has been taken offline by the storm, a development that could ripple across the US manufacturing industry.





“Texas alone produces nearly three quarters of the country’s supply of one of the most basic chemical building blocks. Ethylene is the foundation for making plastics essential to U.S. consumer and industrial goods, feeding into car parts used by Detroit and diapers sold by Wal-Mart Stores Inc.



With Harvey’s floods shutting down almost all the state’s plants, 61 percent of U.S. ethylene capacity has been closed, according to PetroChemWire.”



Ethylene, the gas given off by fruit as it ripens, occurs naturally, but it’s also a crucial product of the $3.5 trillion global chemical industry, with factories pumping out 146 million tons last year. Processing plants turn the chemical into polyethylene, the world’s most common plastic, which is used in garbage bags and food packaging. When transformed into ethylene glycol, it’s the antifreeze that keeps engines and airplane wings from freezing in winter. It’s used to make polyester for both textiles and water bottles. Ethylene is an ingredient in vinyl products such as PVC pipes, life-saving medical devices and sneaker soles. It helps combat global warming with polystyrene foam insulation and lighter, fuel-saving plastic auto parts. It’s used to make the synthetic rubber found in tires. It’s even an ingredient in house paints and chewing gum.



Ethylene and its derivatives account for about 40 percent of global chemical sales, according to Hassan Ahmed, an analyst at Alembic Global Advisors. And the Gulf Coast is a crucial player in the global market: US production accounts for one of every five tons on the market. International ethylene plants were running nearly full out to meet rising demand before Harvey.


And while Gulf Coast chemical plants are designed to withstand hurricane-force winds and floods, the “1-in-1,000-year flooding” unleashed by Harvey has forced many to shut down. The damage to the region’s chemicals industry is perhaps best embodied by the Arkema plant in Crosby, TX, which experienced two explosions Thursday that the company said it was powerless to prevent.



Another analyst quoted by Bloomberg said he hasn’t seen anything like this in his 18 years of following chemical stocks.





“Ethylene producers hit by the storm along the Texas Gulf Coast include LyondellBasell Industries NV at the southern end in Corpus Christi, Exxon Mobil Corp. in Baytown outside Houston, and Chevron Phillips Chemical Co. in Port Arthur by the Louisiana border.



‘The combination of Harvey’s path, duration and rainfall total is wreaking havoc with the supply side of the U.S. chemicals industry on an unprecedented scale,’ said Kevin McCarthy, an equity analyst at Vertical Research Partners. ‘We certainly haven’t seen anything quite like it in our 18 years of following chemical stocks on Wall Street.’”



Adding to the difficulties for American manufacturers, more than 60% of production capacity for polypropylene, another widely used chemical, has been taken offline. Chemical and plastics buyers can’t operate for long without replenishing their inventory, and some producers are already telling customers that they won’t be able to meet their contractual supply obligations because of the storm. According to Bloomberg, Formosa Plastics Corp., which shut its Point Comfort, Texas, ethylene and plastics plants ahead of the storm, said Aug. 30 that it won’t be able to meet commitments for polyethylene, polypropylene and PVC.



These supply-chain disruptions have contributed to the drop in demand for natural gas, which is used by plastics makers during the refining process.





“With so much chemical production in the region out of commission, demand for natural gas has plummeted. Producers such as Dow Chemical Co. use gas as a raw material for ethylene and also to power their massive cracking furnaces and other equipment. Added to the impact from widespread electricity outages, demand for gas fell by more than 5 billion cubic feet a day, according to Citigroup Inc. That’s equal to nearly 8 percent of the country’s normal consumption this time of year.”



Meanwhile, demand for ethane and butane, gases necessary for the production of ethylene and other chemicals, have fallen about 90 percent because of plant closures, according to PetroChemWire.


Because of the complexity of chemical manufacturers’ infrastructure the need to carefully assess damages - or potentially risk an Arkema-style disaster – could forestall plant reopenings for weeks, if not months. What’s worse, companies won’t know for sure whether their plants were damaged until they try to restart them, perhaps only then finding that flood waters have ruined a key piece of equipment.





“No one right now has a very good handle on the full extent of the damage,” Ahmed said.



And even if producers manage to get their plants online sooner than anticipated, other logistical challenges – like damaged train tracks – could prevent them from delivering their products to buyers.


According to IHS, polypropylene producers could face an average delay of two weeks to ship their product via rail because of the storm. Some buyers are seeking supplies outside the US in case of an extended disruption.


Already, the economic damage wrought by Harvey has surpassed even the direst forecasts. If US manufacturers are forced to halt production on such a wide range of products for an extended period, maybe Goldman and Citi’s projections that the storm will negativelly impact GDP during the third and fourth quarter might actually be conservative.
 

Saturday, August 19, 2017

The Real Story Behind Goldman's Q2 Trading Loss: How A $100M Gas Bet Went Awry

Goldman Sachs FICC-trading income was an unexpectedly ugly blemish on what was already a poor Q2 earnings report. And while the FDIC-backed hedge fund initially blamed the decline on lower trading revenues, lack of volatility and depressed client activity...



... there was more to the story. The Wall Street Journal has uncovered what really happened: A $100 million bet on regional natural-gas prices gone awry after production problems at a local pipeline sent prices soaring, decimating Goldman’s short position.





“Goldman wagered that gas prices in the Marcellus Shale in Ohio and Pennsylvania would rise with the construction of new pipelines to carry gas out of the region, said people familiar with the matter. Instead, prices there fell sharply in May and June as a key pipeline ran into problems.”



More specifically…





“Goldman’s key miscalculation last quarter was betting that natural-gas prices in the Marcellus Shale would rise relative to the national benchmark price in Louisiana known as the Henry Hub, the people familiar with the matter said.”



The quarter was the worst ever for the bank’s commodities unit, which, as WSJ notes, has been one of the firm’s most consistent profit centers, and a training ground for many of its top executives, including Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein. The trading loss “extended a broader slump at a company once known as Wall Street’s savviest gambler.”



Goldman shares fell 2.6% on the day of the report, which analysts largely attributed to the miss in trading revenues, despite a stronger-than-expected bottom-line profit.


The investment bank has held on to its commodities-trading business even as most other American banks exited following the financial crisis. It is currently the seventh-largest market maker for natural gas in North America, larger than some energy giants like Exxon Mobil. According to WSJ, trading oil, metals and other physical commodities is increasingly dominated by smaller firms like Glencore PLC and Gunvor Group Ltd. that don’t face as much government regulation.





“The loss highlights the trade-offs Goldman made in sticking with the risky commodities-trading business, even as other large banks retreated following the financial crisis. Goldman is the seventh-biggest marketer of natural gas in North America, up from 13th in 2011, according to Natural Gas Intelligence—bigger than U.S. energy giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chesapeake Energy Corp. It has been the only U.S. bank in the top 20 since 2013, when J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. left the business.”



WSJ explains that Goldman’s position would"ve produced a profit if a pipeline being built to carry natural gas out of the Midwest had been completed on time. Instead, it faced multiple delays after a series of fluid spills and the accidental bulldozing of a historic Ohio home.






“Essentially, it was a bet on the timely completion of pipelines under construction to ferry a glut of gas out of the region.



But one of those pipelines ran into trouble this spring: the 713-mile Rover, which would transport gas from the Marcellus to the Midwest and beyond.



Its developer, Energy Transfer Partners, in February bulldozed a historic Ohio home without notifying regulators, and scrambled to finish clearing trees before the roosting season for a protected bat species. In May, federal regulators barred Energy Transfer from drilling on some segments of the route after a series of fluid spills.



The first leg of the pipeline, which had been set to come online in July, isn’t expected until at least September. Energy Transfer said it has “been working efficiently and nonstop to remediate” problems and expects to have the entire pipeline operational in January.”



In all likelihood, part of Goldman’s short position was accumulated to offset the risk-management needs of the bank’s clients, WSJ reported. Goldman’s counterparties, the drillers operating in the Marcellus shale, reported strong gains in their derivatives books.





“Goldman was in part likely catering to gas producers in the region that wanted to lock in steadier revenue through swaps and other contracts. Many Marcellus drillers reported big gains in the value of their derivatives portfolios in the second quarter—meaning their trading partners lost money in that period, at least on paper.”



Of course, the bank’s executives would have you believe the loss was solely the result of Goldman fulfilling its duty to help its clients manage risk, and that the bank’s trades didn’t violate the Volcker Rule (a ban on proprietary trading that was part of Dodd-Frank). As WSJ notes, whether or not a trade violates the Volcker rule depends on who initiated it, how long the bank held the position, and myriad other factors.


But with President Trump in the White House and with future Fed Chairman Gary Cohn"s only nemesis getting the boot earlier today, soon Goldman will be empowered to take much more trading risks with the explicit blessings of 1600 Pennsylvania.

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Will Europe Rebel Against U.S. Sanctions?

Authored by Curt Mills via National Interest,


In comprehensively punishing Moscow, Washington risks further cleaving itself from senior European leadership.



The United States finalized new sanctions against Moscow last week, roping it in with perennial bad actors Iran and North Korea. Despite complaints from Donald Trump and Rex Tillerson—the pair of ex-CEOs that now lead U.S. foreign policy—the administration assented to the “flawed” package on Wednesday. While Trump is sometimes accused of abandoning the trans-Atlantic alliance and scuttling the post-war order, the president now risks further damage to relations with many in Europe by targeting Russia with fresh sanctions.


Hawks in Washington are clearly taking notice of the European position. “Europe’s opposition to the sanctions is troubling. You can’t on one hand ask for a bigger U.S. military commitment to the continent while on the other hand oppose nonmilitary coercive measures,” Boris Zilberman, a Russia analyst at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told me. A central plank in Europe’s concern is energy—the continent is quite reliant on Russian energy (something Ronald Reagan famously warned the Europeans against during the Cold War). “It is déjà vu all over again. Back in the 1980s the Reagan administration targeted Soviet energy exports, specifically pipeline projects. Europeans saw it as a double whammy for them, undercutting their energy security and—given potential secondary sanctions on many firms involved—penalizing their companies,” says Clay Clemens, an expert on German politics at the College of William & Mary.


In particular, a project called Nord Stream 2 between Europe’s central player, Germany, and Russia’s controversial energy company Gazprom could be affected by the sanctions. In addition to Gazprom, the deal has investments from European companies; its signatories aim to carry natural gas under the Baltic Sea. “Some Germans quietly hope that [Nord Stream 2] could transform their country into a European energy hub,” The Economist noted in June. The Ukrainian crisis is also at play here: the project would allow Russia “to bypass existing pipelines in Ukraine, depriving the Ukrainians of lucrative transit fees,” the outlet noted.


But the United States and the EU are not united, and Europe is feuding internally over how to handle this, as well. In contrast to Germany, the Brits haven’t stood in Washington’s way. “We agree that it is important to send a message to Moscow that Russian actions in Ukraine and Syria, interference in the domestic affairs of other countries, and undermining of the rule of law, will be met with a strong response,” a United Kingdom official told me, indicating London didn’t find the legislation abrasive and praising the sanctions for emphasizing “the importance of transatlantic unity.” The Baltic states and Poland, Russia-weary and opposed to Nord Stream 2, have gone along with the sanctions, and would potentially block more radical retaliation by the EU. European Council president Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister, has also criticized Nord Stream 2. Vice President Pence was in Estonia earlier this week, and Poland hosted Trump ahead of the G20 summit last month, where he seemingly received a hero’s welcome in a country that has moved dramatically rightward in recent years.


But elsewhere in Europe, including in the EU leadership, there is great concern. In startling language Wednesday, European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, of Luxembourg, appeared to treat the U.S.-Europe alliance as a potentially open question. “The U.S. Congress has now also committed to only apply sanctions after the country’s allies are consulted. And I do believe we are still allies,” he said in a statement, with his office noting that “if the US sanctions specifically disadvantage EU companies trading with Russia in the energy sector the EU is prepared to take appropriate steps in response within days.” “We are prepared,” Juncker told a Brussels radio station Wednesday. “We must defend our economic interests vis-à-vis the United States. And we will do that.”


The German establishment is apoplectic, directly accusing the United States of trying to enrich itself economically—the sanctions are paired with provisions encouraging Europe to buy U.S. natural gas. In the era of President “take the oil” Trump and an Exxon Secretary of State, some are suspicious of American motives like never before. “One is left with the sense that the United States is looking to its own economic interests,” Volker Trier, the head of the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce, said last week. In the 1980s, “there was also a sense that the US sanctions were designed to reduce competition for American energy exports,” Clemens noted to me.


Wary of bucking Germany, France has also expressed reservations about the sanctions. “Any conflict in the Paris-Berlin axis is potentially suicidal for Europe at this point,” Vincent Michelot of Sciences Po Lyon tells me. The French foreign ministry said last month the language passed out of the House looked illegal. This Parisian dismissal comes at a time when Trump seems to be cultivating a relationship with the new French president, Emmanuel Macron, who Michelot says is trying to set himself up as an “indispensable mediator” in European and international affairs.


If Ukraine is one nonobvious tripwire in this dispute, Syria is another. Macron has tacitly backed a future for Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, in a major change in French policy. “It is a radical departure from Hollande’s strong stance that there could not be any political resolution of the Syrian conflict with Assad around the negotiation table,” Cecile Alduy of the France-Stanford Center told me. “More importantly, Macron is contradicting himself on this . . . In early April, he was in favor of a military intervention against Assad.” Prolonged, public disputes between Berlin, Paris and Washington could imperil efforts at even unrelated negotiations, however.


In the end, Europe, especially with Germany in the lead, might take a pass on a full-scale feud. Europe “cannot allow the relationship with Russia to sink to the level of the U.S.-Russia confrontation,” Michelot says. “The preference [in most of Europe] is still for some kind of constructive engagement policy, despite EU sanctions after Ukraine,” Clemens says, but cautions: “Of course, overall, it is a tough balance for Merkel in particular to strike, since she has been the leader most skeptical of Putin.