Nickel Price Surging As Hype Escalates During LME Week

It’s LME Week and there’s cause for celebration in metal markets. European mining stocks rose to a 4-year high as the nickel price surged more than 5% intraday to a two-year high and rose by the daily limit in Shanghai trading today. Metals used in electronic vehicles, like lithium, cobalt, copper and nickel, are hot right now and a focal point of discussion at the LME gatherings. As Metal Bulletin noted, the 2017 event has seen record attendance.

The annual LME Dinner week kicked off in a positive note, with record numbers gathering for the exchange’s keynote metals seminar on Monday October 30. “We have over 900 people over the day here…which is a record attendance,” London Metal Exchange chief executive officer (CEO) Matthew Chamberlain said.

Despite relatively high inventories, big miners and metal traders are becoming increasingly bullish on nickel’s prospects. According to Bloomberg...

Glencore Plc and Trafigura Group Pte are often at loggerheads, but one thing they agree on: the nickel market will be transformed by the rise of electric cars. Nickel sulphate, a key ingredient in lithium-ion batteries, will see demand increase 50 percent to 3 million metric tons by 2030, Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura, said in an interview. While other battery metals like cobalt and lithium have more than doubled since the start of last year, nickel prices have been subdued because of large inventories.

"When you look structurally, we should start to get bullish now,” Rahim said.

 

“Are you going to be able to meet that demand when the time comes, given underinvestment in the supply side?”

Glencore, which was devastated by the downturn in nickel, is also optimistic, as are some of the analysts, as Bloomberg notes...

(Glencore) told analysts recently that nickel production would need to increase 1.2 million tons by 2030, equal to more than half of current global output, to keep up with demand from the battery industry. Prices are currently more than double what it costs Glencore to mine the metal. It’s a surprising mood change for a market with a disastrous reputation. Nickel was long a thorn for Glencore, which was saddled with unprofitable operations following its takeover of Xstrata. It sold an Australian nickel mine, which Xstrata bought in 2007 for $2.4 billion, for just $19 million in 2015.

 

“The nickel industry’s been a bit of a dog since about 2007,” Oliver Ramsbottom, a partner at McKinsey & Co. in Tokyo, said by phone.

 

The battery industry could revive the fortunes of miners more than a decade after nickel collapsed from a peak of $51,600 a ton in 2007

Despite the hype, Bloomberg cautions that there are still naysayers highlighting elevated inventories and the potential for supply to ramp-up faster than currently expected.

Still, some analysts are skeptical that the bullish scenarios will play out. Electric cars are still a niche industry and nickel oversupply remains a threat, with current stockpiles four times bigger than since the start of 2012.

 

Indonesia has authorized its largest producer to export more nickel ore. The Philippines has also discussed ending a ban on open-pit mining, raising concerns that supply will spike.

 

“For years, the market has completely dismissed the idea that something positive could happen in nickel,” Ingrid Sternby, senior research analyst at Blenheim Capital Management LLP, said in an interview in London. “With the recent announcements about Indonesia and the Philippines, it’s easy to see why the market is still scary enough for people not to want to be involved…

 

“You can see the tightness ahead in the nickel market, but my concern is that we’re going to see a lot of value destroyed along the way,” said Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets Ltd.

 

“If the miners really believe in the EV growth story, the thing to do would be to keep the nickel in the ground until the deficit arrives.”

When assessing the prospects for nickel, it is really two separate markets, nickel alloyed with iron and nickel sulphate used in batteries. Bloomberg expects the latter to progressively trade at a premium to the former.

About half of global nickel production is in the form of ferronickel or nickel pig iron, which is nickel alloyed with iron, making it suitable for stainless steel. Battery makers, instead, use nickel sulphate, produced by dissolving pure nickel metal in sulphuric acid. One hope is that the pricing of nickel pig iron and the high-grade nickel sulphate will diverge in the coming years, improving the fortunes of miners that can produce battery-quality material.

 

The global nickel market is heading for a deficit once above-ground stockpiles of battery-grade metal are consumed, according to Wood Mackenzie. The question for miners is how quickly the premium for top-quality nickel will emerge.

The nickel alloy versus nickel sulphate certainly adds complexity to analysing nickel. However, while the fundamentals for the latter seem very positive, it makes us slightly nervous when record numbers of participants gather at industry jamborees.

Still, politicians and automakers are increasingly counting on a future of electric cars, attracting traders such as Trafigura.

“Will we see a real breakout in next 12 months? That’s hard to see, but beyond that, structurally this looks to be going up,” Rahim said.

 

Scientists Are Developing A Technique To Control The Weather With Laser-Beams

In a breakthrough that could permanently ameliorate the threat of thinning water supplies in California and much of the western US, a team of scientists says it will soon be able to induce rainfall and lightning storms by firing high-energy laser beams into the heavens.

Express reports that the breakthrough involves manipulating the static electricity present in clouds – which, after all, are just balls of condensation, triggering rainfall, according to experts at the University of Central Florida and the University of Arizona.

A six year drought in California was finally declared over this year but the threat for the south-western state as well as other locations in the world remains the same.

But scientists may now be able to induce rain and lightning storms using high energy lasers in a breakthrough that could potentially eradicate droughts throughout the globe.

The possibility of condensation, lightning and storms are ever present in the clouds and are containED through high amounts of static electricity.

Experts from the University of Central Florida and the University of Arizona believe that by firing a series of laser beams, they can activate the static electricity and induce rain and storms.

Here’s how it would work: One beam would be fired into the clouds to stimulate rainfall. Then, a second beam would surround the first beam to help sustain it for longer.

“When a laser beam becomes intense enough, it behaves differently than usual – it collapses inward on itself,” said Matthew Mills, a graduate student in the Center for Research and Education in Optics and Lasers (CREOL).

“The collapse becomes so intense that electrons in the air’s oxygen and nitrogen are ripped off creating plasma – basically a soup of electrons.”

This struggle is known as “filamentation” and creates a “light string” that only lasts for a short time before it disperses – hence the need for the second beam.

However, “because a filament creates excited electrons in its wake as it moves, it artificially seeds the conditions necessary for rain and lightning to occur.”

And, as it turns out, “if you wrap a large, low intensity, doughnut-like ‘dress’ beam around the filament and slowly move it inward, you can provide this arbitrary extension.

“Since we have control over the length of a filament with our method, one could seed the conditions needed for a rainstorm from afar," Mills continued.

“Ultimately, you could artificially control the rain and lightning over a large expanse with such ideas.”

One of the scientists involved with the study appeared on CBS This Morning on Thursday to explain how the technology would work in more detail:

 

Visualizing The Massive Impact Of EVs On Commodities

What would happen if you flipped a switch, and suddenly every new car that came off assembly lines was electric?

It’s obviously a thought experiment, since right now EVs have close to just 1% market share worldwide. We’re still years away from EVs even hitting double-digit demand on a global basis, and the entire supply chain is built around the internal combustion engine, anyways.

At the same time, however, as Visual Capitalist"s Jeff Desjardins notes, the scenario is interesting to consider. One recent projection, for example, put EVs at a 16% penetration by 2030 and then 51% by 2040. This could be conservative depending on the changing regulatory environment for manufacturers – after all, big markets like China, France, and the U.K. have recently announced that they plan on banning gas-powered vehicles in the near future.

THE THOUGHT EXPERIMENT

We discovered this “100% EV world” thought experiment in a UBS report that everyone should read. As a part of their UBS Evidence Lab initiative, they tore down a Chevy Bolt to see exactly what is inside, and then had 39 of the bank’s analysts weigh in on the results.

After breaking down the metals and other materials used in the vehicle, they noticed a considerable amount of variance from what gets used in a standard gas-powered car. It wasn’t just the battery pack that made a difference – it was also the body and the permanent-magnet synchronous motor that had big implications.

As a part of their analysis, they extrapolated the data for a potential scenario where 100% of the world’s auto demand came from Chevy Bolts, instead of the current auto mix.

THE IMPLICATIONS

If global demand suddenly flipped in this fashion, here’s what would happen:

Some caveats we think are worth noting:

The Bolt is not a Tesla

The Bolt uses an NMC cathode formulation (nickel, manganese, and cobalt in a 1:1:1 ratio), versus Tesla vehicles which use NCA cathodes (nickel, cobalt, and aluminum, in an estimated 16:3:1 ratio). Further, the Bolt uses an permanent-magnet synchronous motor, which is different from Tesla’s AC induction motor – the key difference there being rare earth usage.

Big Markets, small markets:

Lithium, cobalt, and graphite have tiny markets, and they will explode in size with any notable increase in EV demand. The nickel market, which is more than $20 billion per year, will also more than double in this scenario. It’s also worth noting that the Bolt uses low amounts of nickel in comparison to Tesla cathodes, which are 80% nickel.

Meanwhile, the 100% EV scenario barely impacts the steel market, which is monstrous to begin with. The same can be said for silicon, even though the Bolt uses 6-10x more semiconductors than a regular car. The market for PGMs like platinum and palladium, however, gets decimated in this hypothetical scenario – that’s because their use as catalysts in combustion engines are a primary source of demand.

How The Wall Street Journal Turns the Truth On its Head

Via The Daily Bell

And the award for most misleading headline goes to the Wall Street Journal.

What do you think an article entitled, Unlike Most Industries, Drone Makers and Operators Clamor for Federal Regulation, is all about?

If you guessed it is about drone makers and operators clamoring for more regulations, you are wrong.

Exactly the opposite is true. The drone industry is being stifled by overbearing regulation. Because of one size fits all federal regulations, all across America, it is almost impossible to use drones for commercial purposes.

That is why drone makers, operators and many of their would-be customers are bucking the governmentwide trend toward looser oversight. Additional regulations are their sole means of getting a green light for a much broader array of promising uses.

…these contrarian voices argue that swift federal action is essential for the technology to flourish.

They want a green light. Who put up the red light?

…the Federal Aviation Administration has given limited approvals for small, remotely piloted aircraft weighing up to 55 pounds.

With some exceptions, the initial package of rules permits operations only during daylight hours, up to an altitude of 400 feet and within sight of operators on the ground.

Clearly trying to get rid of those regulations is still trending towards looser oversight. The swift federal action they are clamoring for is to undo previous federal action!

The Wall Street Journal says drone operators see more federal regulations as the only way to get rid of tough federal regulations.

That’s like reporting that the marijuana industry needs federal regulations in order to grow. Marijuana growers see federal regulation as the only way to move their industry forward! Yes, because the government made their industry illegal!

A more honest assessment would say that drone operators would prefer a higher number of less stringent regulations, to a handful of all-encompassing terrible regulations.

While the FAA, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies struggle with legal, technical and public safety challenges unlike any in the past, industry officials increasingly are frustrated. They worry that a prolonged regulatory stalemate threatens to stifle innovation, sacrifice potential American jobs and hand other countries the lead in evolving market segments.

The real story: federal regulations are so draconian that they are destroying an entire sector of business. People in the industry would likely prefer no regulations. That is clearly not a very likely reality, so instead, they prefer less strict regulations. The government is dragging its feet on repealing their old regulations and replacing them. Annoyed, people in the industry are putting pressure on the government to stop ruining their business.

The Wall Street Journal casts this as an industry excited to work with the government! They are just tickled pink to get more regulations, and that is why they are lobbying so hard!

It is absurd. Why are they framing this in a way that casts federal regulations as a solution when they are so clearly the problem?

It almost seems like the WSJ are trying to trick people into thinking more regulations mean more freedom.

What will people assume from this reputable news source if they only read the headline? It took some great journalist-gymnastics to frame an entire article about how regulations are stifling the drone industry as the drone industry being pro-regulation.

But this is the classic way that government operates.

They ban something, and then as they slowly loosen their restrictions, it seems like the government is handing out freedoms left and right.

A couple years ago gays across the country celebrated the Supreme Court decision which struck down gay marriage bans. The government was the only entity restricting them! And marriage wouldn’t even matter if the government didn’t give special privileges and tax incentives to married couples. The whole thing was a non-issue until the government made laws about marriage, and laws banning marriage, regulations about hospital visits, and regulations about financial partnerships.

It was the same thing with black slaves being freed. Then it was repeated with Jim Crow Laws. Is the government the great freer of slaves? No! The government simply reversed their own policy of giving legal protection to people to enslaved certain other people. Did the government give blacks more rights by repealing Jim Crow Laws? Nope! They simply undid the harm that was previously legally enforced.

Basically, all the “progress” society makes is simply undoing stupid things the government has implemented in the past. And they say we need government in order to move society forward. The only good thing government does is undo previous bad things the government has done!

Don’t get me wrong, it is great when the government reverses their terrible policies. But why are they given credit for moving society forward? All they do is reverse their own terrible policies!

Instead, the fact that governments so often have to undo their terrible laws and regulations should make us clamor for them to stop making them in the first place! We should be taking power away from the government to make sure they can never again legally protect slaveholders. We should be making sure the government cannot outlaw or incentivize certain types of consensual adult relationships.

Comparably, drones are a small issue. But the way the Wall Street Journal words the headline and makes their arguments is ridiculous.

Regulations are the problem, not the solution.

In a world where people can’t do their own thinking, the WSJ is handing them a thought pattern. Did you hear that more regulations are required in order to make drones more popular? Oh yes, if we want widespread drone usage, we need the government to regulate the hell out of the industry. Yay government! They are so progressive.

Don’t trust the media to give it to you straight. Even The Daily Bell should not be considered the final word on anything. We certainly hope to present a worthwhile perspective and useful information. But if an individual is not adding their own analysis they are better off not reading the news at all.

News can help you get information about the world outside your immediate knowledge. News can help give you another perspective to consider. It can provide intellectual exercise.

But it seems like too many people these days are simply taking in the unfiltered news–or headlines–as truth. The Wall Street Journal is a big respected name in news. But all they are doing with articles like this is serving up propaganda for the government.

AAPL Stock Slips After Reports Of New iPhone "Plagued By Production Glitches"

AAPL stock is sliding this afternoon as The Wall Street Journal reports the new iPhone is said to have seen "production glitches."

Apple Inc.’s new iPhone, which is expected to be unveiled Tuesday, was plagued by production glitches early in the manufacturing process this summer, according to people familiar with the situation, which could result in extended supply shortfalls and shipping delays when customers start ordering the device later this month. New iPhones are typically in short supply when first released. But if shortfalls of the new phone extend beyond the initial sales period, which is expected to begin September 22, they could weaken analysts’ and investors’ projections for sales in the crucial holiday period.
... 

The production glitches led to a setback of about a month in the manufacturing timetable. Foxconn Technology Group, the Apple contractor that assembles iPhones, has been ramping up production at its manufacturing complex in Zhengzhou, China. The company is paying bonuses to employees who can help bring new hires on board at its Zhengzhou plant, which Foxconn said in June employs about 250,000 people.

Ironically, this was predicted three months ago by Citi analyst Jim Suva who warned that "based on industry-wide checks, we believe the significant enhancements to the iPhone 8 OLED could experience delays as it ramps to high volume production in order to meet strong demand" and as a result slashed his September iPhone delivery estimate from 47 million to 40 million.

Of course, having ignored the news in June, the stock is acting quite surprised now that the exact same story is back in the headlines. 

On the other hand, who knows: this could all be just another clever AAPL PR move to create scarcity and buzz ahead of the looming launch.

A "Super-Powerful" EMP Attack: North Korea's Newest Weapon Against The U.S.

The dynamics of the standoff between the US and North Korea have shifted dramatically in the past week.

First, the North started with an unexpectedly sharp provocation - launching a missile over the Japanese island of Hokkaido - before following that up with its sixth nuclear test. Also, judging by the size the earthquake detected in the country’s mountainous North on Sunday morning, North Korea may have been telling the truth when it said it conducted what it described as its first hydrogen bomb test.

And while the North bragged about the weapon’s “great destructive power” in a TV broadcast, what caught analysts’ attention was a mention of a different tactic: detonating  an H-bomb at high altitude to create an electromagnetic pulse that could knock out parts of the US electrical grid.

Here’s WSJ:

“North Korea’s threats against the U.S. now include a tactic long discussed by some experts: an electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, triggered by a nuclear weapon that would aim to shut down the U.S. electricity grid.

North Korea’s state news agency made a rare reference to the tactic in a Sunday morning release in which the country said it was able to load a hydrogen bomb onto a long-range missile. The bomb, North Korea said, ‘is a multifunctional thermonuclear nuke with great destructive power which can be detonated even at high altitudes for super-powerful EMP attack.’”

Unlike a conventional nuke, an EMP blast - think Oceans" 11 - is not directly lethal, and serves mostly to knock out key infrastructure (useful when robbing a casino).

However, it would probably lead to an unknown number of indirect deaths as hospitals and essential infrastructure lose power.

“The idea of an EMP attack is to detonate a nuclear weapon tens or hundreds of miles above the earth with the aim of knocking out power in much of the U.S. Unlike the U.S. atomic bombs dropped over Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, such a weapon wouldn’t directly destroy buildings or kill people. Instead, electromagnetic waves from the nuclear explosion would generate pulses to overwhelm the electric grid and electronic devices in the same way a lightning surge can destroy equipment.”

In the worst possible scenario, regional power grids could be offline for months, potentially costing many deaths as people would eventually start running out of necessities like food and medicine. Lawmakers and the US military have been aware of the EMP threat for many years, according to WSJ. IN a 2008 report commissioned by Congress, the authors warned that an EMP attack would lead to “widespread and long-lasting disruption and damage to the critical infrastructures that underpin the fabric of US society.”

In a report published last month, the Hill noted that the North could choose to carry out an EMP attack on Japan or South Korea as a more politically acceptable act of aggression. Such an attack could help the North accomplish its three most-important political goals, the Hill said.

“North Korea has nuclear-armed missiles and satellites potentially capable of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack. EMP is considered by many the most politically acceptable use of a nuclear weapon, because the high-altitude detonation (above 30 kilometers) produces no blast, thermal, or radioactive fallout effects harmful to people.

EMP itself is harmless to people, destroying only electronics. But by destroying electric grids and other life-sustaining critical infrastructures, the indirect effects of EMP can kill far more people in the long-run than nuclear blasting a city. In this scenario, North Korea makes an EMP attack on Japan and South Korea to achieve its three most important foreign policy goals: reunification with South Korea, revenge upon Japan for World War II, and recognition of North Korea as a world power.”

Scientists first discovered a hydrogen bomb’s ancillary EMP capabilities after testing one in the Pacific in the early 1960s.

“When the U.S. tested a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific in 1962, it resulted in lights burning out in Honolulu, nearly 1,000 miles from the test site. Naturally occurring electromagnetic events on the sun can also disrupt power systems.

A 1989 blackout in Quebec that came days after powerful explosions on the sun expelled a cloud of charged particles that struck earth’s magnetic field.”

Some experts who spoke with WSJ said it would be impossible to guarantee success during an EMP attack, since the weapon would need to detonate with near perfect accuracy.

“Skeptics generally acknowledge that an EMP attack would be possible in theory, but they say the danger is exaggerated because it would be difficult for an enemy such as North Korea to calibrate the attack to deliver maximum damage to the U.S. electrical grid. If it a North Korean bomb exploded away from its target location, it might knock out only a few devices or parts of the grid.”

The North Korea said its hydrogen bomb had explosive power of tens of kilotons to hundreds of kilotons – so of course if it landed to close, or the attack was mishandled in other ways, what was meant to be an EMP attack would result in a nuclear strike. At least one expert said using an EMP attack would make little sense when the North could cause much more destruction with a nuclear ground attack.

“Others say that even if North Korea had the technical capability to deliver a damaging electromagnetic pulse, it wouldn’t make strategic sense to use it because Pyongyang could wreak more destruction with a traditional nuclear attack directed at a large city.

A rogue state would prefer a “spectacular and direct ground burst in preference to a unreliable and uncertain EMP strike. A weapon of mass destruction is preferable to a weapon of mass disruption,” wrote physicist Yousaf M. Butt in a 2010 analysis.”

Luckily, if US military authorities truly fear an attack, there are some long-term steps the US could take to minimize the effectiveness of an electromagnetic pulse attack. Defenses could be bolstered inexpensively by designing electrical-grid components to withstand sudden pulses, just as the grid already is protected against lightning strikes. The US could also build backup systems that could step in for the principal electrical grids in an emergency.

If the North’s latest nuclear test, conducted early Sunday, didn’t involve a hydrogen bomb, the weapon used was at least close to it according to US officials. It was the North’s first nuclear test since late last year, and also the first since tensions between Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump began escalating shortly after his inauguration. China, Japan, South Korea and the US have already condemned the attack, with China and South Korea threatening to work with the Security Council to bring more onerous sanctions against the defiant North.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump in a series of tweets hinted that he was frustrated with diplomatic measures, which he referred to as “appeasement.” We imagine there are more than a few generals whispering in his ear about the potential success rate of a surgical strike.

* * *

Finally, here is a repost from July 2014, in which hedge fund legend Paul Singer, head of Elliott Management, said that "there is one risk that stands way above the rest in terms of the scope of potential damage adjusted for the likelihood of occurrence" - an electromagnetic pulse (EMP).  Three years he may be proven correct.

From: "The "Most Significant Danger" According To Elliott"s Paul Singer"

EMP: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DANGER

While these pages are typically overflowing with scary or depressing scenarios, there is one risk that stands way above the rest in terms of the scope of potential damage adjusted for the likelihood of occurrence. Even nuclear war is a relatively localized issue, except in its most extreme form. And the threat from asteroids can (possibly) be mitigated.

The risks associated with electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, represent another story entirely. It can occur naturally, from solar storms that send “coronal mass ejections,” which are massive energetic bursts of solar wind, tens of millions of miles in a mere few hours. Or it can be artificial, produced by a high-altitude (at least 15 miles) explosion of relatively low-yield (even Hiroshima-strength) nuclear weapons.

Different initiators of EMP have different pulses and different effects. But the bottom line is that EMP fries electronic devices, including parts of electric grids. In 1859, a particularly strong solar disturbance (the “Carrington Event”) caused disruption to the nascent telegraph network. It happened again with similar disruptions in 1921, before our modern power grid came into existence. A NASA study concluded these events have typically occurred around once per century. A repeat of the Carrington Event today would cause a massive disruption to the electric grid, possibly shutting it down entirely for months or longer, with unimaginable consequences.

Only two years ago, the sun let loose with a Carrington-magnitude burst, but the position of the earth at the time prevented the burst from hitting it. The chances of additional events of such magnitude may be far greater than most people think.

The artificial version of EMP, a kind of nuclear attack, would require between one and three high-altitude nuclear explosions to create its effect across all of North America. It would not cause any blast or radiation damage, but such an attack would have consequences even more catastrophic than a severe solar storm. It could not only bring down the grid, but also lay down a very intense, very fast pulse across the continent, damaging or destroying electronic switches, devices, computers and transformers across America.

There is no way to stop a naturally occurring EMP, and nuclear proliferation, combined with advances in weapons delivery systems, make the artificial version a distinct possibility, so the dangers are very real.

What can be done about this risk? Critical elements of the power grid and essential electronic devices can be hardened. Spare parts can be stockpiled for other, less critical hardware. Procedures can be developed as part of emergency preparedness so that the relevant government agencies and emergency response NGOs are ready to respond quickly and effectively to an episode large or small.

Why are we writing about EMP? Because in any analysis of societal risk, EMP stands all by itself. Congressional committees are studying this problem, and federal legislation is laboriously working its way through the process. We think that raising people’s consciousness about what should be an effort by both parties to make the country (and the world) safer from this kind of event is a good thing to do.

Iranian Drone Flies Within 100 Feet Of U.S. F-18 In Persian Gulf

While the US government is busy deciding how to tag and track the millions of drones flying over populated areas, potentially jeopardizing aircraft as they take off and land, the US military just had a close encounter in the Persian Gulf, where Reuters reports that an Iranian drone came within 100 feet of a U.S. Navy warplane as it prepared to land on the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier off the coast of Iran in the Gulf. The officials said the drone forced the US aircraft to take evasive action.

As AP adds, the drone came within 100 feet below the aircraft and 200 feet to the side of the aircraft. The F/A-18 was in a landing pattern several thousand feet off the deck of the ship waiting to land.

The F/A-18 maneuvered repeatedly to avoid the Iranian QOM-1 drone. The drone did not appear to be armed.

The officials said the drone encounter was considered unsafe and
unprofessional. The US used an emergency radio frequency in the
immediate area to warn those operating the drone to back away. It did
eventually move off.

Since there is no rain over Bedminster, NJ today and Trump is out golfing, we will have to wait at least 3-5 hours before there is an official White House tweet response.

6th-Gen MiG Will Feature Advanced Laser Beam "Protection Systems"

The Russian government announced that it’s sixth-generation fighter jet will be equipped with a range of powerful new features, including laser and microwave weaponry, and advanced radar that will “significantly expand” their ability to detect enemy fighters. The jet, which is Russia’s answer to the US F-35, was first announced in 2016, according to the Washington Times. Complications surrounding the development of the F-35, which was famously plagued with delays and cost overruns, once inspired President Donald Trump to threaten to cancel the US’s order with military contractor Lockheed Martin.

Russian officials said the lasers would allow the MiG-41fighters to disable attacking missiles by destroying their tracking systems.

“We already have laser protection systems installed on aircraft and helicopters, and now we are talking about developments in the field of powered lasers that will be able to physically destroy attacking missiles’ homing heads. … Roughly speaking, we’ll be able to burn out ‘the eyes’ of missiles that ‘look at us.’ Naturally, such systems will be installed on sixth-generation aircraft as well,” said the Adviser to the First Deputy CEO of Radio-Electronic Technologies Group (KRET) Vladimir Mikheyev, reported Russian state news agency TASS.

According to the report, developing drone technology is a “high priority” for Russian engineers, who envision unmanned aircraft flying alongside planes operated by human pilots, armed with a diverse group of weapons.

“One drone in a formation flight will carry microwave weapons, including guided electronic munitions while another drone will carry radio-electronic suppression and destruction means, and a third UAV will be armed with a set of standard weaponry. Each specific task is solved by different armaments,” Mr. Mikheyev added.

The Russian government is also developing microwave technology, which officials say will make the jets lighter and more agile.

“The use of microwave weapons is highly problematic for a plane with a pilot due to the need to preserve his life. But if we develop an additional system of protection against our own microwave weapons, we’ll lose even more space and the weight margin. Besides, even the most complex and effective system can be insufficiently efficient,” he said.

The jet will also feature “advanced radar concepts” that will allow pilots to monitor enemy aircraft with “the highest accuracy.”

“The radio-photonic radar will be able to see farther than existing radars, in our estimates. And, as we irradiate an enemy in an unprecedentedly wide range of frequencies, we’ll know its position with the highest accuracy and after processing, we’ll get an almost photographic image of it — radio vision. … This is important for determining the type [of an aircraft]: The plane’s computer will immediately and automatically identify a flying object, for example, an F-18 with specific types of missile armament,” Mr. Mikheyev said.

Government officials first unveiled plans for the sixth-generation MiG fighter early last year, and expects it to be finished by 2025.  
 

FEMA Is Preparing For A Solar Storm That Would Take Out The Grid

Authored by Maco Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Administration) is planning for a massive solar storm that would be so strong, it would take down the power grid.

Noting that the rare, yet “high-consequence” scenario has “the potential for catastrophic impact on our nation and FEMA’s ability to respond.”

According to unpublished FEMA documents obtained by Government Attic, a FOIA (Freedom of Information Act) database and non-profit organization, the Department of Homeland Security agency once mapped out a disaster plan for the occurrence of another geomagnetic “super storm” like the one the occurred in 1859.

Back then, the sun flung a giant plume of magnetized plasma out into space. The coronal mass ejection (CME), the sibling of a massive solar flare, traveled the 93 million miles between the Sun and Earth in only 17.6 hours. Today, it’s known as the Carrington Event and is remembered by the largest geomagnetic storm in the history of recorded space weather.

No other storm has matched it in speed or magnitude. When the shock wave of accelerated particles arrived on September 1, 1859, the disturbances to Earth’s magnetosphere were so great that telegraph communications across Europe and North America went on the fritz. Sparks leaped from the telegraph infrastructure, and machinery was so inundated with electric currents that operators were able to transmit messages while disconnected from battery power. Compasses even wiggled, and brilliant auroras were reportedly seen as far south as the Caribbean.

But that doesn’t mean the ill-equipped government isn’t preparing for the inevitability, in fact, they are. Despite our superior ability to predict these events, the stakes are exponentially higher in a modern, hyper-connected world.  FEMA predicts that a geomagnetic storm of this intensity would be “a catastrophe in slow motion.” Space weather events happen all the time, and many are harmless. For example, an event causing radio blackouts, solar radiation storms, and geomagnetic storms would be abnormal, yet the ripple effects on the power grid and communications would severely limit FEMA’s ability to respond to a nationwide crisis.

Within 20 minutes of the CME’s occurrence, FEMA estimates that 15 percent of the satellite fleet would be lost due to solar panel damage.

Solar radiation from the incoming storm would add “3-5 years worth of exposure” to the panels, degrading older satellites to the point of inoperability.

Low orbiting satellites, such as Iridium and Globalstar, may be less affected. Cellular service would be disrupted, and a loss of GPS capabilities could complicate FEMA operations.

–Motherboard

Should a storm of this magnitude hit, there wouldn’t be much the government can do. And of course, this would be the perfect opportunity to round up the masses for a trip to a FEMA camp. Individuals would need to band together to help get things back online, but it would all take time.  Those in heavily populated regions would be hit the hardest and evacuation of over 100 million people would be impossible, and even if it was, there would be no unaffected region to send the evacuees – other than the FEMA camps.

Prepare yourself, because the mere fact that this government document exists could mean that there is something we don’t know.

Next Generation Risks, Part 1: "Super EMP" Attack

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

The global financial system’s ever-increasing leverage pretty much guarantees another crisis in coming years - unless it’s pre-empted by new weapons that can, in theory, shut down entire national banking systems, thus screwing up the best-laid plans of today’s savers and investors.

This series will consider some of them, beginning with the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack. From The Wall Street Journal:

Pyongyang doesn’t need a perfect missile. Detonating a nuke above Seoul—or L.A.—would sow chaos.

In 2001 Congress established a commission to study the danger of an electromagnetic pulse generated by the detonation of a high-altitude nuclear weapon. It concluded that while there would be no blast effects on the ground, critical electricity-dependent infrastructure could be rendered inoperable. The commission’s chairman, William R. Graham, has noted that several Russian generals told the commissioners in 2004 that the designs for a “super EMP nuclear weapon” had been transferred to North Korea.

Pyongyang, the Russian generals reported, was probably only a few years away from developing super EMP capability. According to Peter Vincent Pry, staff director of the congressional EMP commission, a recent North Korean medium-range missile test that was widely reported to have exploded midflight could in fact have been deliberately detonated at an altitude of 40 miles.

Was it a dry run for an EMP attack? Detonation at that altitude of a nuclear warhead with a yield of 10 to 20 kilotons—similar to those tested by North Korea—would produce major EMP effects and inflict catastrophic damage to unhardened electronics across hundreds of miles of surface territory. It is a myth that large yield nuclear weapons of hundreds of kilotons are required to produce such effects.

Although some analysts have dismissed the possibility of a successful North Korean EMP attack—either on South Korea or the United States—several factors could make it a more appealing first-strike strategy for Kim Jong Un’s nuclear scientists than a direct, missile-delivered nuclear strike. For one thing, accuracy is not a concern; the North Koreans simply need to get near their target to sow chaos. Nor would they need to worry about developing a reliable re-entry vehicle for their ballistic missiles.

Conventional wisdom aside, a North Korean EMP attack on the U.S. may also not be far-fetched. “North Korea could make an EMP attack against the United States by launching a short-range missile off a freighter or submarine or by lofting a warhead to 30 kilometers burst height by balloon,” wrote Mr. Graham earlier this month on the security blog 38 North. “Even a balloon-lofted warhead detonated at 30 kilometers altitude could blackout the Eastern Grid that supports most of the population and generates 75 percent of US electricity. Moreover, an EMP attack could be made by a North Korean satellite.” Two North Korean satellites currently orbit the earth on trajectories that take them over the U.S.

This is not mere theory. In 1962 the United States detonated a 1.4-megaton nuclear warhead over the South Pacific, 900 miles southwest of Hawaii. Designated “Starfish Prime,” the blast destroyed hundreds of street lights in Honolulu, caused electrical surges on airplanes in the area, and damaged at least six satellites. Only Hawaii’s undeveloped electric power-transmission infrastructure prevented a prolonged blackout. It was the era of vacuum-tube electronics. We are living in the digital age.

Some conclusions

Lots of actors in addition to North Korea have this capability. And we can’t stop it. Preventing a nuke-laden plane or balloon from detonating miles above a populated area is hard to the point of impossibility.

Banking and brokerage networks would be shut down – possibly for a long while – by such an attack, which means no access to ATM machines or credit card readers. People without ready cash would be stuck without access to life’s necessities. Meanwhile cars, which have in recent years become rolling computer networks, won’t run, making it hard to get to distant supplies.

The fiat currency of a system shut down in this way might or might not hold its value. This is uncharted financial territory so it’s not certain that cash under the mattress will be of use. And forget about cryptocurrencies in this scenario. Virtual money evaporates when the network on which it circulates goes down.

The solution?

Start upgrading to hardened electronics as part of a basic prepping program. That’s beyond the technical scope of this article, but Google it and you’ll find plenty of resources. And hold precious metals in small enough denominations to use as currency. One of history’s lessons is that gold and silver remain valuable whatever else is going on. If we’re destined to spend a few months back in the Middle Ages, spendable money will make the experience a lot more manageable.

Powerful Geomagnetic Storms Hit Earth - Will Stocks Fall Next Week?

Via StockBoardAsset.com,

Overnight and continuing into this morning a large space weather event has signaled a G-3 ‘Strong’ geomagnetic storm. On April 22, 2017, I wrote an article titled: Yesterday’s Broad Power Outage Likely Caused By Geomagnetic Storm  outlining how the grid failures in San Fransisco, New York, and Los Angeles were likely due to a strong geomagnetic storm. As we know, geomagnetic storms can influence the functioning and reliability of spaceborne and ground-based systems and services or endanger property or human health. 

The Planetary K-Index is used to measure geomagnetic storms at Boulder, Fredericksburg, Est. Planetary, and College. The graphs below indicate a strong geomagnetic storm is currently underway and in some locations literally off the chart.

via watchers.news

A coronal mass ejection (CME) produced during the early UTC hours of May 23, 2017 hit Earth’s magnetic field at 15:36 UTC on May 27, more than 24 hours after it was expected. Although the solar wind speed is relatively slow, the embedded magnetic field had a prolonged period of southward Bz that managed to spark G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm.

G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm (K-index of 7) threshold was reached at 04:19 UTC. Under G3 conditions, the area of impact is primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Power system voltage irregularities are possible and false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft systems may experience surface charging and increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur. Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur. HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent, aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

Conclusion: According to Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta:

"Specifically, people affected by geomagnetic storms may be more inclined to sell stocks on stormy days because they incorrectly attribute their bad mood to negative economic prospects rather than bad environmental conditions."

Could this weekend’s geomagnetic storm lead to stock market losses next week? 

Yesterday's Broad Power Outage Likely Caused By Geomagnetic Storm

Via StockBoardAsset.com,

Yesterday, a massive US power grid failure was seen across the entire United States in one simultaneous fashion. San Fransisco, New York, and Los Angeles were the three main areas that were hit the hardest. Each of the areas experienced challenges or shut downs in business commerce. Also, basic infrastructure such as communication networks, mass transportation, and supply chains experienced challenges. To many this seemed apocalyptic with anaylst citing possible cyber attacks amid mounting geopolitical turmoil across the globe. We’re shocked that mainstream media didn’t revive the failing Russian narrative for another round of fake news to confuse the masses. Personally, I don’t think it was a cyber attack or the Russians, but more of a Space Weather Event.

Space weather refers to the environmental conditions in Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere due to the Sun and the solar wind that can influence the functioning and reliability of spaceborne and ground-based systems and services or endanger property or human health.

Here is PG&E outage map from yesterday’s event. Widespread. 

This is the Planetary K-Index, which 5 or greater indicates storm-level geomagnetic activity around earth. The latest space weather data signals a geomagnetic storm rolled in on April 20, 2017. During the elevated K-waves >5, San Fransisco, New York, and Los Angeles experienced power grid failures simultaneously.

 

Latest Space Weather Warnings

April 22, 2017 @ 08:40 UTC - Geomagnetic Storm Warning (UPDATED)

A moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm is currently in progress thanks to a high speed solar wind stream above 700 km/s. More storming is expected over the next several days as a coronal hole stream rattles our geomagnetic field. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert for visible aurora during the next several nights.ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2017 Apr 22 0559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 – Moderate

April 21, 2017 @ 02:40 UTC - Large Coronal Hole Returns / G2 Storm Watch

A large recurrent coronal hole last seen in March will become geoeffective beginning April 23rd. A moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch was added and high latitude sky watchers may be in for an aurora treat once an expected solar wind stream arrives past Earth. More updates in the days ahead. As always, stay tuned to SolarHam.com where you will find the most up to date information.

According to http://www.solarham.net/, who uses NOAA data, Geomagnetic Storm has been declared for the past few days.

Piecing together the puzzle, we understand the sun can unleash space weather that can have profound effects on ground based systems, as well as human health. In a report from NOAA titled: Geomagnetic Storms and the US Power Grid, the paper mentions how the US power grid is highly interconnected and susceptible to damage from geomagnetic storms.

US Power Grid is an interconnected system which may explain why San Fransisco, New York, and Los Angeles all experienced power failures relatively at the same time.

The report shows that the sun is the source of ‘GICs’ Geomagnetically Induced Current.

GICs can enter the earth’s surface through transformers in the power grid.

GICs can force a transformer tank wall to overheat

Just maybe thats what happened in San Fransisco with the substation fire

 

What is a substation?

A substation is a part of an electrical generation, transmission, and distribution system. Substations transform voltage from high to low, or the reverse, or perform any of several other important functions. Between the generating station and consumer, electric power may flow through several substations at different voltage levels. A substation may include transformers to change voltage levels between high transmission voltages and lower distribution voltages, or at the interconnection of two different transmission voltages.

2003 Substation fire due to a geomagnetic storm overheating a transformer

Take away points

Looking ahead, the growth of the US transmission grid has exploded in the past 60 years. This leaves an abundant amount of the US grid susceptible to more power outages and possibly widespread events.

Bonus: Executive Order — Coordinating Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events (Fall 2016). What does our Gov’t know that we don’t?

Bonus: ATL FED-> Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market

"Total Chaos" - Cyber Attack Feared As Multiple Cities Hit With Simultaneous Power Grid Failures

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

The U.S. power grid appears to have been hit with multiple power outages affecting San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles.

Officials report that business, traffic and day-to-day life has come to a standstill in San Francisco, reportedly the worst hit of the three major cities currently experiencing outages.

Power companies in all three regions have yet to elaborate on the cause, though a fire at a substation was the original reason given by San Francisco officials.

A series of subsequent power outages in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and New York City left commuters stranded and traffic backed up on Friday morning. Although the outages occurred around the same time, there is as of yet no evidence that they were connected by anything more than coincidence.

 

The first outage occurred at around 7:20 a.m. in New York, when the power went down at the 7th Avenue and 53rd Street subway station, which sent a shockwave of significant delays out from the hub and into the rest of the subway system. By 11:30 a.m. the city’s MTA confirmed that generators were running again in the station, although the New York subways were set to run delayed into the afternoon.

 

 

Later in the morning, power outages were reported in Los Angeles International Airport, as well as in several other areas around the city.

 

Via : Inverse

The San Francisco Fire Department was responding to more than 100 calls for service in the Financial District and beyond, including 20 elevators with people stuck inside, but reported no immediate injuries. Everywhere, sirens blared as engines maneuvered along streets jammed with traffic.

Traffic lights were out at scores of intersections, and cars were backing up on downtown streets as drivers grew frustrated and honked at each other.

Via: SF Gate

The cause of the outage has not yet been made clear, though given the current geo-political climate it is not out of the question to suggest a cyber attack could be to blame. It has also been suggested that the current outages could be the result of a secretive nuclear/EMP drill by the federal government.

As we have previously reported, the entire national power grid has been mapped by adversaries of the United States and it is believed that sleep trojans or malware may exist within the computer systems that maintain the grid.

In a 2016 report it was noted that our entire way of life has been left vulnerable to saboteurs who could cause cascading blackouts across the United States for days or weeks at a time:

It isn’t just EMPs and natural disaster that poses a threat to the grid, but there is also the potential for attacks on individual power substations in the vast network of decentralized and largely unguarded power grid chain. A U.S. government study established that there would be “major, extended blackouts if more than three key substations were destroyed.”

Whether by criminals, looters, terrorists, gangs or pranksters, it would take very little to bring down the present system, and there is currently very little the system can do to protect against this wide open threat.

Whether the current outages are the result of a targeted infrastructure cyber attack or simply a coincidence, most Americans think the impossible can’t happen, as The Prepper’s Blueprint author Tess Pennington highlights, a grid-down scenario won’t just be a minor inconvenience if it goes on for more than a day or two:

Consider, for a moment, how drastically your life would change without the continuous flow of energy the grid delivers. While manageable during a short-term disaster, losing access to the following critical elements of our just-in-time society would wreak havoc on the system.

• Challenges or shut downs of business commerce


• Breakdown of our basic infrastructure: communications, mass transportation, supply chains


• Inability to access money via atm machines


• Payroll service interruptions


• Interruptions in public facilities – schools, workplaces may close, and public gatherings.


• Inability to have access to clean drinking water

It is for this reason that we have long encouraged Americans to prepare for this potentially devastating scenario by considering emergency food reserves, clean water reserves and even home defense strategies in the event of a widespread outage. The majority of Americans have about 3 days worth of food in their pantry. Imagine for a moment what Day 4 might look like in any major city that goes dark.

This exclusive clip from American Blackout shows what an American Blackout might look like:

Is This The World's Scariest Chart?

Most every nation is massively in debt, (broke) and in direct correlation manipulative central fucking banks and their fraudulent and bankrupt "primary dealers". Sales are down, companies go up in value without ever delivering "profit" or in some cases even an actual product, the market is a complete sham, deep state spys on everyone, lies are told with frequent and alarming regularity by the folks that are suppose to be runnin things, .gov numbers are grossly manipulated more than ever, false flag operations every fucking where, we"ve got a reality tv star fronting the shitshow, and there is a general disturbance in the force, possibly leading up to but not limited to WW lV ...

Hope this helps,