Showing posts with label The Big Lie. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Big Lie. Show all posts

Monday, August 21, 2017

10 Inconvenient Truths About Investing & The Markets

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,


This morning, as I was catching up on my reading, I stumbled onto this gem from Business Insider of an interview with the founder of Robinhood, a mobile app to let individuals trade stocks with no commissions.





“It’s [Robinhood Gold] serving a need that we saw in a part of our core user base, which includes people using Robinhood for the first time as well as those who have been with us since the beginning. A really large percentage of those users have become more mature investors. The No. 1 thing they kept asking for was the ability to use a margin feature.



With margin debt levels at already record high levels, the demand by individuals to leverage themselves into the financial markets has always, without exception, ended extremely poorly. Since the vast majority of users of the Robinhood app have never seen a bear market, the real lessons of trading have yet to be learned. 


It also brings me to today’s post.


One of the first rules that any successful long-term trader or investor will tell you is to keep a written record of your activities. This provides the basis for you to learn what you are doing right, but more importantly what you are doing wrong. The secret to investment success is actually quite simple and can be summed up as follows:





“Do more of what works and less of what doesn’t.” – Dennis Gartman



As I was reviewing some old trading notebooks this past weekend, a folder sheet of paper fell out of one of my 2011 binders. It was a printout of the “20-Truths Of Investing And The Markets” by Ivan Hoff of Ivan Hoff Capital.


I wanted to share my 10-favorites with you by adding some illustrations as well.



1. Stock prices run in cycles. Periods of re-pricing are usually quick and powerful.



Read: Soros – A Rudimentary Theory Of Bubbles


2. Stocks are very highly correlated during drastic sell offs and during the initial stage of the recovery. In general, correlation is high during bear markets.



Read: I Bought It For The Dividend


3. Try to trade in the direction of the trend. It is not only the path of least resistance, but also provides the best profit opportunities. Have a simple method to define the direction of the trend.



Read: Managing A Trend Change


4. Being wrong is not a choice. Staying wrong is.



Read: You Can’t Time The Market?


5. The overall market conditions will never be perfect and when they seem so it is probably a good idea to decrease exposure and take profits. With that in mind, you don’t have to be in the market all the time. When you don’t see good setups, it just makes sense to watch from the sidelines.



Read: 7-Myths Of Investing


6. If you understand the incentives of the major market participants, you will be able to predict their likely behavior. Technical analysis is a lot about understanding incentives and recognizing intentions.



Read: 7-Trading Rules You Won’t Follow


7. Your first loss will often be your best loss. No one is right all the time and you don’t have to be. There are market participants that are immensely profitable by being right only 30% of the time. It is good to have conviction in your investment thesis, but discipline should always trump conviction.



Read: The Psychology Of Loss


8. Optimism and pessimism in the stock market are contagious. Investor psychology often loses its logic and become emotional. The news media and the most recent price action play a particularly important role in developing moods of mass optimism or pessimism.



Read: 5-Universal Laws Of Human (Investment) Stupidity


9. Rising P/E is an indicator of rising expectations and confidence in the future of the stock. The P/E ratio reflects the enthusiastic optimism, or the gloomy pessimism of investors.



Read: Valuation Measures And Forward Returns


10. It doesn’t matter how smart you are, how ingenious your idea is or how cheap your stock is – if the market does not agree with you, you will not get paid. Period.



Read: The Big Lie Of Market Indexes


These are just reminders to keep you grounded in the reality of how money, and investing, REALLY work over the long-term. While it is easy to get lost in the excitement of the moment, the brutal return to reality has always been a costly lesson to re-learn.

Sunday, July 9, 2017

Have You a Positive Personal Practice?

Have You a Positive Personal Practice?


By


Cognitive Dissonance




Those who dive deeply into unmasking the Deep State Matrix (also known by many other names) and its various methods, operatives, sycophants and agents think they are enlightening themselves. And in some ways they are, if enlightening their lives is strictly interpreted as exposing the multiple layers of Imperial lies and deceit.


Rather than constructing a truth, arguably a somewhat more positive experience, what we are in fact doing is deconstructing a lie. Therefore by extension we are deconstructing our self, since our self is seamlessly intertwined and interchangeable with our worldview. We are taught, conditioned really, to identify ourselves in relation to how we perceive the world and our place within it.


Our family. Our community. Our work. Our company. Our town. Our government. Our leaders. Our nation. Our world. Our enemy. Our national debt. Our money. Our social problems.


We are conditioned from birth to closely identify with those people, places and things which we do not own, but in fact own us. Our actual personal problems are our own problems. No one outside our tiny personal circle takes any responsibility for them. But problems created by all those other entities are automatically our problems because we have chosen to align our self with external entities who care nothing for our own well being.


In fact, ‘they’ use our conditioned alignment to entrap and control us; though in reality we are willingly entrapping and controlling our selves. I am quite certain many people will choke on my use of the term ‘willingly’.


When we ask someone ‘What do you do?” what we are really asking is WHO are you? Our culture informs us the answer will be derived from our occupation, socioeconomic status, education and tribal ties all the way down to the clothes we wear and the words we speak. In turn, all these indicators are themselves derivatives of our overall cultural immersion…with millions of minor and major variations.


An integral component of our culture is the rules, and the rulers, who encompass it. Therefore when we begin to deconstruct (formerly) firmly believed ‘truths’ about ‘our’ cultural and socioeconomic systems, we are in effect deconstructing ourselves collectively and our ‘self’ individually.


External events which change our world view are treated quite differently than if we prompt the change ourselves though our own actions and inquiries, particularly if we can easily dismiss the external changes as entirely unforeseen or out of our control.


Let me give you an example. It would be extremely unusual for you to walk out the front door of your apartment building in Manhattan and find a black bear sitting on the sidewalk eating out of the garbage can.


But up here in the mountains of Southwestern VA, an occurrence such as this would not be unusual at all. And you would have been a fool in the first place to leave your garbage out to attract the bear.


Failure to adjust my worldview to account for the bears, bobcats, panthers, coyotes, copperhead and rattlesnakes we live amongst is sheer stupidity. We are short termers renting the place from an extremely long term Mother Nature who unquestionably rules the roost around here. But to consider these same creatures a serious and viable threat on the streets of NYC would also be stupidity, though a rabid dog is a definite possibility.     


We willingly moved up here, therefore we made the changes to our lifestyle which resulted in bears and bobcats. So while we might be startled to find Teddy munching on Mrs. Cog’s petunias one morning or digging out a bee hive, it would not necessarily be shocking. Thus our worldview would not be rocked to its core. But find bears on the streets of Manhattan and suddenly we are questioning the previously unquestionable.



Teddy


More than anything else, context determines whether something is shocking or not. And we determine the context.


Remember that when unfolding the lie.



Now suppose you’ve been told all your life there are no bears in Manhattan, only to discover via your own personal research (because an unknown stench originating from nearby was becoming unbearable) that the city keeps hungry bears in a poorly secured building next door and it’s only a matter of time before you become dinner for the bears.


Discovering this, one might at least begin to seriously question the local government concerning what else they’ve been lying about. While your overall worldview would change slightly, the portion focused locally would significantly diverge from previously accepted known knowns.


But then you unearth evidence of state and national political involvement in this seemingly local ‘scandal’. However, the city and national newspapers want nothing to do with the story and you suspect systemic corruption, or at the very least a conspiracy, is afoot.


Plus your apartment building neighbors, who are just as likely to be mauled by a hungry bear, just bow their heads and trudge forward, not wanting to cause trouble by ‘knowing’ the ugly details of this previously unknown fact.


Ignorance is bliss in all its ugly splendor.


Going several steps further, you eventually realize stinky bears are just the tip of the scat pile and all kinds of lies fester just below the surface. Very little of what you thought you knew about how the world works, especially the so called rules and regulations, is actually correct.


This is all quite unsettling, especially when those around us wish to remain deaf, dumb and blind and we are beginning to feel like the odd (wo)man out. Actual reality, meaning the facts as unearthed by us, remains not only unconfirmed, but disavowed by so-called ‘authority’ figures. And they are precisely the individuals and institutions we have been conditioned from birth to believe are the primary arbiters and qualifiers of truth.


Don’t believe me? Then why do the vast majority of ‘We the People” wait until authorities confirm what we already know, or at least strongly suspect, to be fact? I’ve witnessed this psychological phenomenon, both up close and from afar, too many times to dismiss it as anything but real and predicable.


Short of being swept away by the tsunami or run over by a Mack truck, meaning reality can no longer be successfully ignored or denied, it only becomes real when an acknowledged and official authority figure tells us it is real. By extension, if not acknowledged by an authority, something we know to be real remains not real in the hive mind of the collective.


Do not dismiss off hand the corrosive psychological damage wrought when one remains un-affirmed by the collective. While we may tell ourselves it is the price we pay for going it alone, unless we compensate for the damaging effects, it still takes its toll.


While we may intellectually know this journey of deconstruction is debilitating, knowing something doesn’t necessarily mean we fully comprehend all its ramifications. Based upon my own personal experience, as well as observations of others, it has become glaringly obvious to me we severely underestimate the damage done both to our psychological and physical systems.


And I haven’t even mentioned our severe spiritual wounding.


I rarely see any discussion in the alternative media of this debilitating phenomenon, so it isn’t surprising at all it’s rarely talked about even in the peanut gallery aka the comment section of the articles. We’re all just supposed to grin and bear it, brave little soldiers marching forever forward.


But even professional soldiers are psychologically and physically prepared for what they encounter and most certainly are affirmed and supported when they return, if only by each other. We, on the other hand, are isolated soul mates connected only by bits and bytes via some impersonal interwebby conversation. While this most definitely is a soothing balm, it is not a cure by any definition of the word.


So, have you a positive personal practice? Something you do on a daily or weekly basis that not just recharges, but replaces what has been dismantled and lost? Because as mentioned at the beginning, this is a deconstruction process of our self, of all we have believed in and constructed our lives around. One simply cannot remove this many bricks from the wall and expect it to remain stable for long.


Ultimately this is why so many collapse by the wayside, exhausted from the process and unwilling, or unable, to go any further. This inevitable attrition, this slow accumulation of casualties, is often hidden from view because new awakenings quickly take their place on the front lines, fresh fodder for the cognitive meat grinder.



The Face of the Fallen


So many fractured minds. It does not have to be this way.



And few talk about those left behind or why they fall in the first place. I’ve taken a few stabs at this subject and my meager contribution is listed below.


Collapse Fatigue


Waking Up Is Hard To Do


Where Have All The Zero Hedge Veterans Gone?


Dispatches from Occupied Territory – The Awakening


Seeking Calm in the Middle of Chaos


The Death of Hope and Belief


While some attempt to re-enter the Matrix and forget what they know, an impossible task in my view, most simply compartmentalize the information off to the side or under the surface and attempt to pick up the pieces of their lives.


“Yes, I know it’s all a lie. But I need to put bread on the table, salvage my marriage and work towards my retirement. I’ll do some long term prepping, adjust my investment portfolio to reflect what I know, patch things up with the spouse and kids and move on with my life. But I simply can’t do this anymore.”


I’ve witnessed people do this, so I know it can be accomplished. What I don’t know, and I suspect neither do they, is the extent of the short and long term damage done to their body, mind and spirit.


Some of us are simply more resilient than others are, capable of resisting, at least for a while, the debilitating psychological effects of a self disavowed truth that contradicts the officially sanctioned lie. I suspect some of it has to do with how deeply we believed the myth and how rigidly we structured our lives around the lie.


Many are devastated and never recover, while a surprisingly large contingent become addicted to continuously unfolding the big lie, convinced if they could just learn ‘the’ truth it will all finally make sense and the scoundrels will be jailed.


The truly Big Lie is there is no absolute ‘truth’ per se, just varying shades of gray. Beauty, and truth, is in the eye of the beholder and is determined almost entirely upon our perspective and belief system. A belief system, I might add, presently undergoing extensive renovations.


There could be a dozen sides to a conflict and all will brandish their ‘truth’ as the one and only God given truth. See, it was certified by God (the ultimate authority) so it must be the truth. Too often truth is conflated with carefully selected facts.


Just because I recognize a lie doesn’t immediately qualify the alternative as the truth. Ex CIA Director William Casey was quoted as saying “We’ll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false.” While the quote itself may be called into question, the process described cannot. This is how domestic ‘statecraft’ has been practiced for millennium and anyone who believes otherwise demonstrates the totality of their cultural conditioning.


Please do not be insulted by what I just said. Our conditioning has little to do with intelligence and everything to do with our early environment. A blank slate wrestled from the womb and filled to the brim with cultural beliefs and state mandated education is defenseless against the disinformation onslaught.


What makes the most effective disinformation campaign is the genuine sincerity of those conducting the actual conditioning. Initially this comes in the guise of family and friends, followed closely by trusted educators. Ultimately, when asked to accept something at face value, oftentimes the depth of our belief in the person promoting the information determines the depth of our belief in the information itself.


To one extent or another, we all suffer from Stockholm Syndrome. Only the coercion is more subtle than a pistol held to the back of the head. Then again, maybe not.


Critical thinking need not be applied. And often it is actively discouraged from being considered because we no longer understand what actual critical thinking entails. Unless (of course) we’re talking about ‘hard’ science. Since ‘science’ itself has been proven (by high priests in white coats) to be ‘truth’, science, and therefore by extension the scientists, has become its own authority.


See how that works?


A lie is only a lie if the person spreading it knows it is not the truth. Otherwise ‘it’ qualifies as a belief, albeit firmly held and quite persistent, requiring no critical testing and certainly no critical thinking to verify. All it takes is unquestioned faith and belief the presenter would never knowingly tell you a lie.


If it ain’t a lie it must be the truth, the ultimate in binary thinking.


When I closely, critically and continuously examine what I hold dear to me as fundamental truth, I discover much of it was passed on to me by parents, siblings, close friends and trusted associates. And, of course, the nanny state, along with its busy beehive of well intentioned, sincere and kindhearted disinformation disseminators.


At first I had no choice but to believe what I was told, since I was entirely dependent upon those close to me for nurturing. But the constant stream of uncomfortable, awkward and embarrassing questions spouted from the mouth of babes is the clearest indicator that much of our culture is at best nonsensical and at worst insane.


Once indoctrinated into the hive mind, there is little choice but to go along to get along. Basic survival instinct dictates we go with the flow or we go hungry. It’s usually all downhill from there. The tyranny of the hive is all encompassing and easily manipulated.



Hive Mind


One cannot fight the hive mind. But one CAN choose not to materially participate.



The net results can be deep wounds and scaring for life if we dare to tear at the bindings of the lies that tie our worldview, and therefore our self, together. And while we should never be admonished, nor dissuaded, from seeking to understand the lie, and therefore our self, only the unaware begins such strenuous labor unprepared and malnourished. 


There seems to be no widely disseminated information on how to proceed when digging through the lie, since the collective silence (heads bowed, eyes averted, lips zipped as a good slave citizen should) precludes even acknowledging the obvious truth about the bald faced lies. This only serves to further exaggerate the sense of isolation and abandonment felt by those brave enough to push through the initial layers of filth.


Ultimately the responsibility for our health and well being under any circumstances resides solely with us and our self. To obligate or expect any other person or entity to accept that responsibility is an abrogation of our own personal sovereignty. Of course, decades of conditioning tells us we are all victims and not responsible for our self, especially when we have just been…wait for it…victimized.


There are distinct benefits to being a slave. All you need to actually do is be helpless…and productive of course.


After reading this article, many will claim they are doing just fine; they suffer no ill effects from their journey through the foul sewerage of the big lie. And while it’s senseless to dispute their assertion since I do not know the individual making the claim, nor should they be challenged simply because they claim health and peace of mind, many who believe themselves OK are in fact not.


What I often see occurring, and I have done this as well, is a steeling of the self, a mental and emotional hunkering down to endure the long haul through the muck. Resigned to great drudgery for a long duration, one foot is placed in front of the next while great will is applied to the daily task of living in this self imposed hell.


I say self imposed simply because how we approach this, the manner in which we perceive the lie and our place within it, often contributes greatly to our distress. It does not need to be this way.


In fact, in a mistaken belief this is the only way to maintain our resolve, a near constant state of low level anger and righteous indignation is maintained, interspersed with brief flare-ups of rage when particularly vile or outrageous examples of the Imperial lie are uncovered.


This fight or flight posture is particularly debilitating if maintained for a long time. A constant low level infusion of stress hormones will slowly eat you alive.


Or a general state of apathy and resignation sets in when the full realization takes hold that one person cannot defeat the big lie, nor awaken a population who wishes to remain fast asleep.


There are a zillion variations upon the two general states of mind outlined above, including major derivations not even discussed. It doesn’t really matter if I have not described a specific state of mind, only that there is recognition they are abnormal and unhealthy.


In fact, this situation, this holding pattern, is far from OK and speaks of a terrible quality of life and a near hopelessly deflated spirit. And yet so many who choose to continue down the path of discovery know of no other way to continue.


So, have you a positive personal practice? Something you do on a daily or weekly basis that not just recharges, but replaces what has been lost.


In Chapter Two I shall discuss just what this might be.



07/09/2017


Cognitive Dissonance


BALANCE IS EVERYTHING!


Balance

Tuesday, July 4, 2017

The "Big Lie" Of Market Indexes

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,


Last week, I received the following email from a reader which I thought was worth further discussion.





“In a recent article “Signs of Excess – Crowding and Innovation” Lance stated ‘Note the chart above is what has happened to a $100,000 investment in the S&P Index. While the S&P index has soared past previous highs, a $100,000 dollar investment has just recently gotten back to even. This demonstrates the important difference about the impact of losses on a dollar-based portfolio on investments versus a market-cap weighted phantom index.” – M. Fitzpatrick



It’s a great question.


Almost daily there is an article touting the soaring “bull market” which is currently hovering near its highest levels in history. The chart below is based on quarterly data back to 1990 and is nominal (not adjusted for inflation) which is how it is normally presented to investors.



The Big Lie


The “Big Lie” is that you can “beat an index” over an extended period of time.


You can’t, ever.


Let me explain.


While individuals are inundated with a plethora of opinions on why the index is moving up or down from one day to the next, a portfolio of dollars invested in the market is vastly different than the index itself. I have pointed out the problems of benchmarking previously stating:


  1. The index contains no cash

  2. It has no life expectancy requirements – but you do.

  3. It does not have to compensate for distributions to meet living requirements – but you do.

  4. It requires you to take on excess risk (potential for loss) in order to obtain equivalent performance – this is fine on the way up, but not on the way down.

  5. It has no taxes, costs or other expenses associated with it – but you do.

  6. It has the ability to substitute at no penalty – but you don’t.

  7. It benefits from share buybacks – but you don’t.

Furthermore, it is also not representative what happens to real dollars invested in the financial markets which are impacted by changes in inflation. The chart below compares the break even times for the nominal index versus an inflation-adjusted index and $100,000 investment into the index.



You will notice in the $100,000 portfolio that investors, once the impact of inflation is added, just got back to even after 16-years of their investment time horizon was lost. The problem with that, as I noted in “The World’s Second Most Deceptive Chart” is the impact of life expectancy on reaching investment goals. To wit:





“For consistency from last week’s article, we will assume the average starting investment age is 35. We will also assume the holding period for stocks is equal to the life expectancy less the starting age. The chart below shows the calculation of total life expectancy (based on the average of males and females) from 1900-present, the average starting age of 35, and the resulting years until death. I have also overlaid the rolling average of the 20-year total, real returns and valuations.”




Here is what you should take away from the two graphs above. Assuming that an individual was 35 at the peak of “Dot.com” bubble, they are now 51 years of age and are no closer to their goals than they were 16 years ago. Assuming they will retire at 65, this leaves precious little time to reach their retirement goals. 


Of course, this is repeatedly proved out in survey after survey which shows a majority of Americans are woefully behind in their savings goals for retirement.



Of course, this is due to one of the most egregious investing “myths” in the financial world today:





The power of compounding is the most powerful force in investing.” 



Markets Don’t Compound 


There is a massive difference between AVERAGE and ACTUAL returns on invested capital. The impact of losses, in any given year, destroys the annualized “compounding” effect of money.


The chart below shows the impact of losses on a portfolio as compared to the commonly perceived myth that investors “average 8%” annually in the stock market.



As you can see, while investors did finally get back to even by just “buying and holding” their investments, they are far short of the goals they needed to achieve financial security. The problem is due to the fact we “anchor” to our original “peak investment valuation” rather than our ultimate goal.


However, let’s take this one step further and look at a $1000 investment for each peak and trough valuation period with the assumption of a real, total return holding period until death based on life expectancy tables. No withdrawals were ever made. (Note: the periods from 1983 forward are still running as the investable life expectancy span is 40-plus years.)


The gold sloping line is the “promise” of 6% annualized compound returns. The blue line is what actually happened with invested capital from 35 years of age until death, with the bar chart at the bottom of each period showing the surplus or shortfall of the goal of 6% annualized returns.



Again, in every single case, at the point of death, the invested capital is short of the promised goal.


The difference between “close” to goal, and not, was the starting valuation level when investments were made.


This is why, as I discussed in “The Fatal Flaws In Your Retirement Plan,” that you must compensate for both starting period valuations and variability in returns when making future return assumptions. If you calculate your retirement plan using a 6% compounded growth rates (much less 8% or 10%) you WILL fall short of your goals. 


Hang On…That’s Not The End Of Story


There is one more calculation that needs to be accounted for that is too often left out of the “just buy an index because you can’t beat the index” meme.


Let me just state again, as noted above, NO ONE can beat an arbitrary, hypothetical, index. PERIOD.


Why?


Because of inflation, taxes, and expenses.


The chart below once again returns us to our $100,000 invested into the nominal index versus a $100,000 portfolio adjusted for “reality.”


$100,000 invested in 1998 has had a compounded annual growth rate of 6.72% on a nominal basis as compared to just a 4.39% rate when adjusted for reality. The numbers are far worse if you started in 2000 or 2008.



Furthermore, both numbers also fall far short of the promised 8% annualized rates of return often promised by the mainstream analysts promising riches if you just buy their investment product or service and hang on long enough.


The reality is, as proven repeatedly over time, such an outcome will likely prove to be extremely disappointing.


In order to win the long-term investing game, your portfolio should be built around the things that matter most to you.





– Capital preservation


– A rate of return sufficient to keep pace with the rate of inflation.


– Expectations based on realistic objectives.  (The market does not compound at 8%, 6% or 4%)


– Higher rates of return require an exponential increase in the underlying risk profile.  This tends to not work out well.


– You can replace lost capital – but you can’t replace lost time.  Time is a precious commodity that you cannot afford to waste.


– Portfolios are time-frame specific.  If you have a 5-years to retirement but build a portfolio with a 20-year time horizon (taking on more risk) the results will likely be disastrous.



As I wrote previously:





The index is a mythical creature, like the Unicorn, and chasing it takes your focus off of what is most important – your money and your specific goals. Investing is not a competition and, as history shows, there are horrid consequences for treating it as such.”



So, do yourself a favor and forget about what the benchmark index does from one day to the next. Focus instead on matching your portfolio to your own personal goals, objectives, and time frames. In the long run, you may not beat the index but you are likely to achieve your own personal goals.


But isn’t that why you invested in the first place?

Sunday, June 25, 2017

The Greater Depression

The Greater Depression


By


Cognitive Dissonance


https://www.patreon.com/CognitiveDissonance


http://twoicefloes.com/




Once or twice a month Mrs. Cog and I pack up the car and head to Winston-Salem, North Carolina. For us poor mountain folk, that’s the big city and the best destination when our need for certain items calls for visiting particular stores.


Each trip down from the mountain elicits at least one observation about recent changes to the Matrix. For example, Mrs. Cog noticed the big box stores appear to be reducing their selection significantly. Once it was brought to my attention, it was suddenly obvious they were narrowing their inventory to those items with high margins and quick turnover. Essentially they are abandoning the rest of the low margin consumer market to the likes of Amazon.com, Wallmart.com and so on.  


But what we stumbled upon as we hunted down a used book store near the heart of Winston-Salem was a bit surprising to say the least. It is common to find beggars and panhandlers working the stop light at busy intersections. Often they are soliciting the right hand turn lane or narrow island of grass separating the traffic flowing in opposite directions using the tool of their trade; a cardboard sign describing their particular plight in hand written black marker.


Two or three years ago the physical condition of the beggars clearly indicated distress, usually by way of their unkempt appearance and worldly possessions gathered on or around them as they solicited. These were ‘street’ people doing whatever they had to do in order to make it through another day. 


Sure, some were drug and alcohol dependent, others just trying to make a quick buck tugging on the heart strings of those passing by. And some were hard core street people making some money the only way they could considering they had no home, no transportation and no support system.


I’m not here to judge because at one point in my life I was that man on the corner begging for a meal and a night out of the cold. Long before finally turning my life around, I wallowed in the socioeconomic lowlands for a decade or more. I blame no one or thing but myself for my ordeal. But that doesn’t make my experience any more or less real. Nor does it invalidate what I am today, here and now. It is simply a part of the woven fabric that constitutes the whole me.


Over the last year or so the quality, if not also the quantity, of beggars has gone more upscale, with many of those on the side of the road appearing better dressed, washed and groomed. As well, their signage has morphed from a simple plea of “Please Help!” or “Homeless, Anything Will Help” to more involved explanations such as “Between Jobs, Need Some Help”, “Lost My Job, Then My Home” right down to the truly crestfallen “I Can’t Feed My Family. Please Help!”


In addition, the cast of characters has greatly expanded. It is somewhat common these days to find a man or woman holding a sign begging us to help their family. Off to their side on public display, usually ensconced under a shade tree or other such cover, is the actual family we presume needs our help.


That must have been one interesting family meeting.


While it’s one thing to scam the general public on your own, it’s another thing entirely to involve the spouse and children in the ruse in so obvious and blatant a manner. The ‘tell’ I look for to indicate sincerity is the level of obvious embarrassment etched on the faces of the children and spouse.


In fact, when I encountered one such situation a few months back, the look on the teen’s face instantly compelled me to roll down the window and pass out twenty bucks. She most definitely was not faking it and would rather have spent the day in hell than on that street corner. There was just no way she could hide her immense embarrassment and public humiliation.


Sadly what I saw was just another family on the express elevator down to poverty.


Mrs. Cog and I have assumed this change in the face of roadside solicitation was simply another indicator of the ongoing and escalating rape and pillage of the American middle class. Being the oldest of our union, I clearly remember a similar descent by members of society into monetary purgatory during the 70’s and early 80’s. Then again, the people motoring by back then were much more likely to help the fallen than people are today.


Our most recent encounter was simply more of the same. A Caucasian couple, presumably husband and wife, were working the side of the road. She was front and center while he was just off to the side in the shade looking forlorn and beaten. I don’t know which was more haunting, his face or hers. But I do remember seeing the same face staring back at me in black and white images from the Great Depression. The last Great Depression; not today’s Greater Depression.


You’ve seen those images. I know you have.



Face of the Fallen


Take a good look. Look at the eyes. See the body language. This is the face of the fallen.



She was clearly middle class, possibly even professional middle class, with freshly washed hair, presentable clean clothes and very light makeup. It was a breezy day and she was trying in vain to keep her long straight hair in place. Clearly her appearance mattered to her, her head held high as she unflinchingly faced the people she was soliciting. This wasn’t arrogance or false pride, but simple straight forward dignity on display.


Her sign said it all.


“We are both working, but not enough to pay bills. Please help.”


For just a moment, try putting yourself in their shoes. Can you imagine the conversation they must have had over dinner last night?


-----------


The wife, looking tired and depressed, to her husband. “Honey, we need to talk.”


Silence.


“Honey, we need to talk…now.”


The husband, clearly irritated and angry, snaps back. “Yes, I know. What do you want to do?


Silence. Neither wants to be the first one to say it.


She finally tries the back way around. “Marcia at work says she knows a friend who did it last week and made more than a hundred dollars in a day.”


He shifts in his seat, but doesn’t respond. Encouraged, she pushes forward.


“She said be sure to bring food and plenty of water. And your dignity because it’s not your fault. (Pause) We’re good people, we’re working but we just don’t make enough money to pay all the bills.”


His head jerks up; he looks like he’s ready to cry. “I don’t want to do this. Isn’t there some other way we can try?


Silence.


She fights back her tears, then bites her lip until she can regain her composure. Why does she always have to be the strong one?


Reaching across the table to hold his hand, almost in a whisper she pleads, “I don’t know what else to do. We’re gonna lose the apartment if we don’t pay them some of the back rent. I need your help with this honey. I can’t do it alone.”


His shoulders drop, and with them all resistance. “OK. When!


Wasting no time, she lays out her plan. “We’re both off tomorrow. The weather is supposed to be ok. Marcia said that stop light near the book store is a good place to try. It’s nearby, so we can walk.”


Silence.


“Tomorrow’s Friday…payday. People will have money. (Pause) It’ll be OK.”


Silence.


“Come on, help me make the sign.”


…………


Sister daughter wife


This is my sister, my daughter, my wife, my "self".



This is the face of the fallen, of perfectly capable and productive people slowly squeezed out of the middle class through little to no fault of their own. While I don’t know the specific situation of our Jane and Joe, the trend is unmistakable. We’ve seen it germinate, then accelerate over the last few years.


What compels an entire family to stake out a busy street corner and beg strangers for help? Or induces a man and wife to take turns holding a cardboard sign by the side of the road, soliciting help from passersby? This isn’t exactly easy ‘work’ after all. Like I said, I’ve been there and know exactly what they are going through.


Many people avert their eyes and attempt not to see what is clearly evident to any who acknowledge the suffering on display. Some make a disapproving face, disgusted by what they see. A surprisingly large number flip them the bird or make some other obscene gesture. And a few will roll down the passenger side window and shout some degrading comment at the solicitor.


But every now and then someone stops and thrusts bills out the window, no time to talk or exchange much more than “God Bless You” because the light is now green and those waiting behind want to move along. Charity waits for no traffic light.


Then there are the very young children strapped into the back seat of passing cars and SUV’s. They don’t often see people standing on a street corner, at least not in places designed strictly for vehicle traffic with pedestrian traffic shunned and displaced.


These young children, innocent toddlers really, have no understanding what is unfolding before their eyes. Their life experience is narrow and mostly pleasant. In supermarkets and department stores, those who pass them smile or stop and engage in animated baby talk while conversing with the rents. So, unsurprisingly, several smile, giggle and wave at the human debris perched by the side of the road.


If witnessed as a third party disinterested observer, one can quickly surmise how far they have psychologically fallen by their reaction to these most basic displays of innocent humanity and abject cruelty. Those freshly minted to roadside petitioning will return the smile and even manage a small wave, their dignity and sense of self worth still mostly intact.


But the knife that cuts the deepest are the children just a few years older, after they have begun their social indoctrination and imperial conditioning via boob tube, video game, play ground and parental teachings. You know…the do as I say, not as I do parental teachings. Some of those kids can be downright nasty when they think the rents up front aren’t looking. Other kids don’t really care if they are.


The obscene and angry displays are at first shocking and humiliating, but then mostly ignored with stone faced resolve and resignation. Those further down the rabbit hole of despair and hopelessness have fully evolved their defensive shields and show little to no emotion regardless of what they see, hear or feel. It’s simply too exhausting to do otherwise.


Having been on both sides of the curb, when time permits I try to be observant of the scene in its entirety, of both the actors on stage and the actors in the audience. This is real life drama playing out on your street corner, regardless whether you are cognizant of it or not. One measure of a society is how well, or poorly, it treats its weakest members. It doesn’t get any more real than this.


In the most general of ways I fully understand the anger on both sides of the political aisle. I was born poor and, through drug and alcohol addiction, plumbed the depths of poverty and despair as a young adult. I pulled myself out of the abyss by my bootstraps, by sheer will and determination…or to be more accurate and honest, desperation. While I presently have little in the way of wealth and material goods compared to many in America, I regained my dignity and self-worth through hard work and perseverance.


So I fully understand how one quickly disappears into the shadows when one is poor in America, detritus quickly discarded and forgotten. I get it. But America is no longer that land of opportunity so widely advertised via various glowing screens, for we now have a permanent underclass deeply embedded within the socioeconomic system.


And their numbers are rapidly increasing.


The Rich


Not everyone suffered during the Great(er) Depression.



The rich keep on getting richer while the poor remain poor. Since the (global) financial apparatus is now maintained via various emergency life support measures, meaning those nearest the cash register gain the most, the financial looting will continue until morale improves or the body politic collapses. Or at least until the wide swath of middle class is finished being strip mined and enslaved.


Can you say ‘disappearing pension’ and ‘bailed in’?


What we are witnessing is better described as a crumble than a collapse. Only now they aren’t even bothering to dig out the bodies before bulldozing over the entire bloody mess. Those still breathing, walking wounded really, are the ones found panhandling on the side of the road, plumb out of luck and with rapidly dwindling options.


Mrs. Cog once observed while surveying the human wreckage that it’s a recession when it happens to someone else, a depression when it crashes into you or me. If I have no eyes to see and no compassion to feel, does that middle class panhandler camped on the corner really exist? The Matrix would have you believe not.


The cognitive conundrum is simple; the official numbers tell us one thing while our lying eyes another. Those running the show helpfully inform us all is well, the recovery nearly complete and consumer nirvana just around the corner. Just a few more Federal Reserve cash machine refills and flushes and all will be as right as rain.


Here’s an ugly truth, one that has ALWAYS been self evident for all to view with the courage to see. The intent of government statistics is not to tell you or me the truth, but to allow us to remain comfortable with the public lie. And while liberal and conservative alike bemoan the state of the state, hypocrisy reigns; don’t you dare touch my piece of the public pie.


Just because one slice comes from gainful employment via defense contracts or Wall Street alchemy while another is served a la mode via various liberal educational institutions or Silicon Valley magic means nothing. The real world definition of public hypocrisy is complaining about the quantity and quality while still firmly attached to the rapidly diminishing teat. Or in this case, Uncle Sam’s wealth redistribution and Ponzi enabling purse strings.


Make mine to go and hurry it up.


Anyone who sincerely thinks the root cause of all our problems lay way over there, on the other side of the divide, really should consider cutting back on the ideological bong hits. I strongly suggest it’s time to just say no, then attempt to clear our severely befuddled heads.


Whatever our globally heralded ‘constitutional’ political system might once have been, it clearly no longer is. It’s regressed to the point where it’s every man, woman and child for themselves. Confirmation of our decline springs from study after global study showing America’s solid hold on the lower middle of world rankings…and sinking fast.


Which is precisely why the USS Titanic, just like all Titanic’s in the past, will continue sailing straight forward until it wrecks on the rocks in plain sight. We all know the only class with reserved lifeboats is first class and above.


Anyone who still thinks a corrupt and hopelessly dysfunctional political system can be ‘fixed’ by changing a few figure heads at the top desperately wants, no needs, to believe this public fiction above all else. Thus the canned statistics continue to be pumped out.


“See, if we just tweak a little here and remove that over there, things are sure to get better.”


Mother and Child


Don"t avert your eyes. This is the face of exhaustion and hopelessness.



The fiat spice flow is all that counts. And everyone at every level, including those dwelling at the bottom, intuitively knows this. If a dysfunctional system remains severely dysfunctional even though everyone claims they prefer otherwise, someone is lying somewhere. What is actually going on is everyone is lying, to themselves and to each other. And deep down everyone knows it.


This is the big lie.


Those who wish to manage us know one amazingly simple fact. If everyone is lying and no one wishes the lie to be exposed for fear they will miss out when the truth is told, then perpetuating, twisting and manipulating the lie is the path to total control. Massage the narrative and you control those enthralled and dependent upon the narrative.


The key to a really good lie is to mix in some truth. When we speak ‘truth’ to others, especially unspoken ‘truth’, it helps smooth over the lingering lies that remain tightly bound to what we identify as our ‘self’. This is how we intellectually support our own glaring hypocrisy.


Ramp up the moral certainty and righteous indignation and we’re off to the races, all doubt and introspection abandoned on the side of the beggar’s road in our quest to save the world from ourselves. Of course, since we are righteous and morally correct, we can never admit this to our self, let alone to anyone else. This deeply embedded and desperately hidden cognitive dissonance is the root of all the suffering we create and the source of our everlasting insanity.


Despite what liberals, conservatives, libertarians, socialists and communists say, this isn’t about saving the world. On a personal level, the only level that counts, this is about personal redemption from our big lie. And by hook or by crock we shall be redeemed.


Unfortunately there is no redemption, only absolution. And the absolution must come from within, from our own hand and only after a brutally honest self examination, then an inner cleansing is complete. Since this is precisely the route we do not wish to pursue, the inner tension continues to increase exponentially.


Once we crest the peak and start our descent, we cannot hold on tight enough nor do we have the courage to let go and change course. Therefore we drive our own ship of state directly onto the rocky shoals. The nation simply follows the individual in the same manner the body follows the direction of the head.


Try walking in a straight line while your head is turned all the way to one side or the other. It simply can’t be done. Inevitably you change course. On the flip side, try walking to the left or right while keeping your head fixed on a point on the horizon.


Neither you nor I can personally save those people begging on the side of the road. The socioeconomic system is failing because we are failing morally, physically, mentally, emotionally, spiritually, as individuals, as a community and as a nation.


I needed to hit rock bottom before I became willing to do what really needed to be done, to look directly in the mirror and conduct a fearless moral inventory. Only then could I start to change everything connected to my own big lie so the healing could begin. We as individuals and as a nation need to follow the same prescription.


But ‘We the Nation’ are not willing to do this just yet. This is because we as individuals must take the first step forward, to admit we have no choice but to stand on the busy street corner and beg complete strangers for help. A little humble pie does wonders for a tormented soul.


I’ve been there before and I stand ready, willing and able to be there again.


What about you?



06/24/2017


Cognitive Dissonance



The American Way is now, at best, mediocre.


American Way