Let Them Eat (Yellow)Cake - Where The Uranium Comes From

Uranium is in high demand, as it is used as fuel in nuclear power plants around the world. Statista"s Dyfed Loesche notes that according to the German Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources BGR, Kazakhstan is the biggest producer of the radioactive metal. The central Asian country produced around 24,600 metric tons of the substance in 2016. This is a share of close to 40 percent of the worldwide production.

You will find more statistics at Statista

Australia comes in at third place with 6,300 metric tons. However, in terms of total resources Australia has the most. Around 1.1 million tons are slumbering in its earths, of which not all can currently be excavated at reasonable costs.

Around the world there are known resources of some 3.5 million tons, so there is no foreseeable shortage.

Until now, the United States is still the biggest consumer of uranium, consuming 18,200 metric tons in 2016 compared to 5,300 tons in China.

However, China"s need for uranium is likely to increase in the future, as of the 61 reactors that are being built in 15 countries worldwide, 21 are located in the People"s Republic. In Namibia, in southeast Africa, the Chinese run Husab pit took up production in 2016, which could become the world"s single biggest uranium production facilities.

Crude Oil bulls don’t want to see selling start here

The last 5-months Crude Oil has experienced a strong rally and has been much stronger than the S&P 500 (gained 27% more), highlighted in the chart below-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

This strong rally now has Crude testing what could be an important price zone for one of the worlds most important commodities-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The impressive 5-month rally in Crude is now testing the underside of two channels and its 38% retracement level of the 2013 highs/2016 lows at (2).

Crude is pushing on a very important price zone that bulls so want to see a breakout take place, not selling pressure to start. Smart money traders are betting Crude will head lower, similar to the degree they bet Crude would head lower in 2013/2014.

The Power of the Pattern is of the opinion that what Crude does here, could send an important intermediate message about the future direction of Crude Oil. Bulls would love to see a breakout at (2)!!!

 

Why you see chart pattern analysis with brief commentary:   

There is a ton of news and opinions about markets and stocks that make the decision-making process more difficult than it needs to be.    

I believe the Power of the chart Pattern provides all you need to see what is taking place in an asset and determine the action to take.  

This approach has worked well for me and our clients and I encourage you to test it for yourself. 

 

 Send an email if you would like to see sample research and take me up on a trial of our Premium or Weekly Research where I provide actionable alerts on breakouts and reversals in broad market indices, sectors, commodities, the miners and select individual stocks 

 

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The U.S. Is Crushing Its Clean Energy Forecasts

Paris, schmarish...

In a February 2007 report, the United States Department of Energy made thirty-year predictions for the country"s energy usage and production. As Statista"s infographic below shows, using data from the non-profit international environmental pressure group Natural Resources Defense Council, these forecasts have so far been smashed.

You will find more statistics at Statista

Martin Armstrong details that actual CO2 emissions in 2016 have undercut the 2006 predictions by 24 percent.

In terms of the energy mix, power generated from coal was 45 percent beneath the forecast while clean(er) alternatives natural gas and wind/solar power saw overshoots of 79 and 383 percent, respectively.

Renewable energy infrastructure is also expanding at a much faster rate than was thought ten years ago. 2006"s prediction for installed solar was a massive 4,813 percent shy of the 2016 reality. The U.S now also has installed wind capacity of 82 gigawatts, 361 percent more than had been hoped for.

In fact, energy consumption in total was also 17 percent lower than expected... which is odd and perhaps a better indication of the recovery-less recovery"s reality?

Ruble, Real Tumble As Oil Slumps On Weaker IEA Outlook

WTI Crude is tumbling this morning, breaking down below $56 following a monthly report Tuesday from the International Energy Agency that said 2017 price gains along with milder-than-normal winter weather are slowing demand growth. This drop is weighing on oil-producers with the Ruble and Real dropping most...

The IEA reduced its demand estimate for next year by 200,000 barrels a day to 98.9 million a day, according to projections in its report. Forecasts for demand growth next year also fell by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.3 million a day.

“The market balance in 2018 does not look as tight as some would like, and there is not in fact a new normal” that would buoy prices above $60, said the Paris-based agency.

“If you put two and two together, it shows that we are going to be a little bit oversupplied in 1Q,” Michael Loewen, a commodities strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto, said by telephone referring to the IEA report. “Traders in the market are focusing on that right now. We rallied too far, too quick.”

This oil move has pushed the Ruble down to 3-month lows...back over 60 Ruble per USD...

The Boy Genius Tackling Energy"s Toughest Problem

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

In the past year or so an unorthodox think-tank called Helena has been quietly bringing together an eclectic cross-section of brilliant individuals (mostly bright-eyed millennials) with ambitious goals. They’re focusing on the world’s biggest and most insurmountable problems: climate change and global security issues such as artificial intelligence, cryptocurrencies, and nuclear proliferation.

The elite and edgy group includes Nobel laureates, Hollywood stars, technology entrepreneurs, human rights activists, Fortune-list executives, a North Korean refugee, and more, but one of Helena’s most unique members is undoubtedly the 23-year old nuclear physicist Taylor Wilson, once known as “the boy who played with fusion”.

Taylor Wilson garnered international attention from the science world in 2008 when he became the youngest person in history to produce nuclear fusion at just 14 years old, building a reactor capable of smashing atoms in a plasma core at over 500 million degrees Fahrenheit - 40 times hotter than the core of the sun - in his parents’ garage. And this all happened after he built a bomb at the age of 10. As a child in Texarkana, Arkansas, Taylor became infatuated with nuclear science after trysts with biology, genetics and chemistry. At age 11, while his classmates were playing with Easy-Bake Ovens, Wilson was taking his crack at building a particle accelerator in an effort to makes homemade radioisotopes.

Soon after he created a mini-sun in his garage, the wunderkind won $50,000 at a science fair for building a counterterrorism device that has the ability to detect nuclear materials in cargo containers, an invention which he later presented to Barack Obama in another science fair, this one sponsored by the White House.

In addition to counterterrorism and nuclear fusion, Wilson has also focused his optimistic virtuosity on solving some of the major shortcomings of our health industry. In his teenage years, Wilson also created a production system for medical isotopes that can be injected into patients and used to diagnose and treat cancer. His design costs less than $100,000 and can be wheeled directly into a hospital room, with the hope to replace multimillion-dollar, warehouse-size facilities that serve the same function.

Before he was even legally able to drink a beer, Wilson had already racked up 4 million views between his two (yes, two) TED Talks (Yup, I Built A Nuclear Fusion Reactor and My Radical Plan For Small Nuclear Fission Reactors). He has a published biography written by author Tom Clynes as well as biopic in development to be directed by Jeff Nichols.

At 18, technically no longer a boy wonder but a legally-adult genius, Wilson skipped college and, armed with a $100,000 Thiel Fellowship, went straight to work trying to solve the same seemingly insurmountable problem that has had nuclear scientists scratching their heads for generation: how to translate the awesome power of nuclear fusion into harnessable energy that would change the future of this planet.

Wilson has said that despite this  - or perhaps because of this - assimilating into the science community was no cakewalk. In a profile for the Atlantic in 2012, Wilson said, “These days, the scientific community accepts me. But getting to that point was tremendously hard... when people have dedicated their lives to something—and spent eight years in college—they just expect that a kid wouldn’t be up to doing it.” However, Wilson thinks his greenness is exactly what makes him a forward-thinker and therefore a great scientist.

“Kids have a certain predisposition to do things differently and see the world differently, and that’s helpful... I think that we get a lot of scientists now who are bent into a system, and we lose some of their boldness.”

It’s exactly this young, optimistic, and daring energy that likely brought Wilson to the Helena think tank this year. In this meeting of the millennial minds, from backgrounds as diverse as Texarkana and Pyongyang, from disciplines as far-flung as nuclear fusion and human rights activism, and a whole lot of hopeful energy, it’s hard to think that something incredible won’t come out of it.

Germany Forced To Pay Consumers To Use More Electricity

A stormy weekend led to free electricity in Germany, as Bloomberg reports wind generation reached a record, forcing power producers to pay customers the most since Christmas 2012 to use electricity.

Power prices turned negative as wind output reached 39,409 megawatts on Saturday, equivalent to the output of about 40 nuclear reactors.

 To keep the grid supply and demand in balance, negative prices encourage producers to either shut power stations or else pay consumers to take the extra electricity off the network.

ITC Votes In Favor Of Imposing Tariffs On Cheap (Chinese) Solar Panel Imports

In a decision that could potentially have a profound impact on US trade policy, the US International Trade Commission has ruled that a flood of cheap, foreign solar panels is unfairly hurting US manufacturers, creating the opportunity for President Donald Trump to follow through on his protectionist campaign rhetoric and impose tariffs and import quotas as soon as November.

If Trump imposes the tariffs, what would be his second significant protectionist act targeting China since approving an investigation into the country"s controversial IP policies that some view as tantamount to starting a trade war. Tariffs would upend the $29 billion US solar industry, according to Bloomberg. More expensive prices for cells and panels would hurt demand for solar potentially reversing a trend of growing demand that has persisted for much of the past decade. Even before the Friday vote, some developers had halted construction and begun hoarding supplies, anticipating that tariffs could double the price of imported components.

The ITC is now set to deliver its recommendations to address the import surge to the president by Nov. 13, handing him an opportunity to score political points on three priorities: He can slap a tariff on China and argue he’s protecting US jobs, all while undermining an industry that competes with coal, an energy that Trump cultivated close ties with during the campaign. The ITC"s vote gives Trump a measure of cover to impose the sanctions.

The case was inspired by Georgia-based Suniva Inc., which filed for bankruptcy protection in April and followed up days later with the trade suit. The company is seeking import duties of 40 cents a watt for solar cells, and a floor price of 78 cents a watt for panels, which currently average about 32 cents worldwide. The US unit of German panel manufacturer SolarWorld AG joined Suniva to argue that the company had been driven to bankruptcy by a global glut of cheap cells, an industry dominated by China. Unlike earlier trade cases, this one would apply on U.S. imports from any nation.

Shares of First Solar popped because it’s panel technology would be excluded while shares of other solar companies tumbled. 

Shares of Tesla, which bought Solar City last summer, remain at the lows of the day.

Most of the US solar industry, which uses the cheap panels for rooftop or utility-scale projects, oppose tariffs, arguing that inexpensive imports have driven a boom in US solar projects and tens of thousands of jobs hang in the balance. Abigail Ross Hopper, president of the Solar Energy Industries Association, called it an “ill-conceived case” driven by creditors wanting to recover some of their investments “in poorly run companies.”

“The petitioners made bad business decisions during the biggest boom in American solar energy history,” Ross Hopper said before the vote. “These companies are not worthy of an injury finding.”

The ruling is unusual because it relies on a rarely used provision of a trade law that offers companies a “global safeguard” that can result in broad, uniform protection against imports - not just tariffs on specific countries or companies. Under that 1974 trade measure, Suniva only had to prove that imports have caused it “serious injury” — not that foreign competitors did anything unfair or illegal. Also, Suniva"s majority owner, Shunfeng International Clean Energy Ltd., opposes the move. The ITC is also pursuing a separate global safeguard investigation of large residential washers as manufacturers, encouraged by Trump"s rhetoric, have filed more cases, believing the administration would follow up on a favorable ruling with sanctions.

Of course, tariffs would also complicate Trump"s relationship with China at a time when the administration is pressuring China to do more about North Korea.

Read the ITC"s full statement below:

The U.S. International Trade Commission has determined that Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cells (Whether or Not Partially or Fully Assembled Into Other Products) are being imported into the United States in such increased quantities as to be a substantial cause of serious injury, or threat of serious injury, to the domestic industry producing an article like or directly competitive with the imported article in the United States.

As a result, the investigation will move to a remedy phase.

More information will be provided in a news release to be issued later today.  That news release will replace this bulletin when it is available.

The Race For The "Holy Grail" Of Renewables

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

In February, AES Energy’s Escondido battery storage facility in California was hailed as the largest one to date, with a capacity of 30 MW/120 MWh. Now, Tesla is building a bigger one—100 MW/129 MWh—in Australia.

On the face of it, it’s a race for the bigger battery storage system. But there’s much more to it than that.

The race is on for increasingly reliable, grid-scale, quick-to-install energy storage solutions that will make the shift to all-renewable power much more realistic. In this, factors such as renewable-friendly regulation and integration of storage systems with renewable power generation capacity can tip the energy transformation scales.

California is one of the places to be if you’re a renewables fan. Its authorities have ambitious plans in this regard, eventually hoping to replace all fossil-fuel generation capacity with renewables. Wholly reliable grid-scale storage systems are crucial for this strategy, and they are becoming increasingly popular in the state.

Unfortunately, the initiative to make the 100-percent renewable plan a law fell through. Unions, worried about possible job losses, pulled their support. Legislators themselves tweaked the bill, so its goal is now to produce 100-percent greenhouse-gas-free energy. The debate about the feasibility of the plan and how fast it could become a reality continues. California is a cautionary tale for other ambitious clean energy proponents. 

Meanwhile, the leaders of the battery pack are expanding. AES recently teamed up with Siemens on a joint venture, Fluence, focusing specifically on energy storage system development. Fluence will deal in AES’ Advancion and Siemens’ Siestorage platforms, the companies said, adding it will target the development of new energy storage capacity across 160 countries worldwide.

Tesla is looking in another direction. It already has the largest portfolio of completed energy storage projects globally, at 300 MWh. What it is looking for now is integrating future storage systems with wind and solar electricity producers.

When Tesla said it had won a deal for the construction of the world’s biggest lithium-ion battery storage facility in Australia, it noted that the deal involves partnering with local wind power producer, Neoen, which will supply the battery complex with electricity.

At the same time, AES is working mainly with traditional utilities to supply them with energy storage capacity, focusing on constantly improving the energy density and efficiency of its arrays. Tesla’s all-renewables focus is well documented, and now it could give it the lead in the energy storage race.

Earlier this month, Tesla closed another partnership, with wind power leader Vestas, to develop integrated wind power-energy storage solutions. The Danish company announced earlier this year that it has big plans for energy storage, with Chairman Bert Nordberg telling Reuters that the company had 3.2 billion euro (US$3.84 billion) in cash and no debt, so it could afford some good investments. So far this year, Vestas has invested in almost a dozen battery storage makers.

Energy storage, according to AES’ CEO Andres Gluski, is “the Holy Grail for renewables.” It is the key to the renewables kingdom of the future, eliminating the adverse effects of renewable power’s intermittency. Integrating this Holy Grail with the clean energy producers is the next step. Tesla and other battery makers have already made it. Yet staying with traditional utilities might not be a bad strategy either: it will be some time before renewables become the predominant energy source in the world.

So You Wanted To Be "Long Electricity" Into The Eclipse?

Energy traders who had hoped to make an easy profit by betting that spot electricity prices would climb around midday on Monday – an idea they may have found on this website - were bitterly disappointed when, instead of spiking, prices tumbled because of an unexpectedly large drop in demand.

Utilities and grid operators had contingency plans ready to compensate for the expected drop in solar. But even with utilities’ backup grids humming, supplies were still widely expected to drop. Instead, energy providers encountered something that they hadn’t anticipated – what one trader called “an irregular human behavior pattern.”

Basically, more Americans than anticipated were outdoors during the middle of the day Monday, around the time when electricity demand typically peaks, than grid operators had expected. Therefore, while supplies took a slight dip, it was amplified by a dramatic pullback in demand, which exhibited a weird U-shaped dip over a two-hour period across the country,” according to Bloomberg. Ironically, if traders hadn’t been so distracted by the eclipse, maybe they would’ve realized that millions of Americans standing outside together staring up at the sun for an hour would have a marked impact on demand, and adjusted their positions accordingly.

“This was a bummer for traders who’d bet prices would jump as a whole load of solar-produced megawatts faded to black. “If anything, it was bearish from a trading perspective because people were more busy looking at the eclipse and talking about the eclipse,” said Tom Hahn, vice president of U.S. power derivatives at brokerage ICAP Energy LLC in Durham, North Carolina.

Spot power in California fell to negative levels as the eclipse wiped out and restarted thousands of megawatts of solar power, and they also dipped from Texas to New York. While natural gas demand rose to a one-month high on Monday, spot prices at several hubs weakened versus the U.S. benchmark.”

The dip in Northern California was particularly vicious.

“Spot electricity at Northern California’s NP15 hub averaged $21.50 a megawatt-hour at 10 a.m. to 11 a.m., less than half the price for supply secured in advance for the hour in the day-ahead market, according to grid data compiled by Bloomberg. Then at 11:50 a.m. local time - as the sun started to reappear from behind the moon -- the ramp-up in solar power sent prices to a low of minus $15.97.”

Tech firms like Alphabet Inc. helped conserve energy usage during the eclipse, part of a partnership with the state utility commission that helped it cut consumption by about 1,500 megawatts.

“Alphabet Inc.’s Nest Labs unit, which deploys thermostats and other smart home technologies, drew more than 750,000 customers into its Solar Eclipse Rush Hour experiment to cut consumption. They reduced power use by about 700 megawatts nationwide, helping to offset a 10,000-megawatt drop in solar power. In California, Nest and other partners worked with the state utility commission to cut consumption by about 1,500 megawatts.

In hubs from Texas to New Jersey, spot electricity prices slumped. Though in several cases, unexpected cloud cover helped mitigate the drop.

“While that was the most dramatic case of a power-price retreat, there were noticeable dips elsewhere. Cloud coverage in places like North Carolina, Texas and New Jersey had reduced solar output before the eclipse anyway, limiting the magnitude of the loss. The moon’s shadow also reduced temperatures a bit. And then there were all those people playing hooky from work and school.”

There were also “very evident” dips in New England, New York and the nearby 13-state grid managed by PJM Interconnection LLC, said Tom DiCapua, managing director at Con Edison Energy in Valhalla, New York, according to Bloomberg. Con Edison, which manages the largest grid in the US with 65 million people, said demand fell by 5,000 megawatts, or as much as 3.8%, during the event.

“People drove up the day-ahead price thinking that prices would settle higher in real time,” DiCapua said. That was the wrong way to go. “The people who tended to be short tended to make money. You wanted to be short.”

Luckily for traders on the east coast, they will get another shot to clinch the eclipse trade in seven years, when the eclipse"s path of totality is expected to stretch from Texas to Maine.

Analysis: Advantages And Disadvantages Of US Seaborne Laser Weapon System

Authored by Andrei Akulov via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

This news hits the world media headlines.

US Navy has started life-tests of the world"s first drone-killing laser reported to move at the speed of light and to be "more precise than a bullet". Laser weapons project a coherent ray of directed photons (light) that strike their target virtually instantaneously. The massive amount of energy released from the weapon was able to down the drone by setting its wing on fire. The speed – 50,000 times the speed of an incoming intercontinental ballistic missile – makes it unnecessary to lead the target.

Silent and generally invisible, as it usually operates at an optical wavelength indiscernible to the human eye, the Laser Weapons System (LaWS) runs off its own electrical generator and needs no ammunition. Highly accurate, it is very effective when used against small, speedy targets, including incoming rockets, small drones and artillery shells. Low maintenance, high safety, and long lifespan are desirable characteristics.

The cost is «about a dollar a shot». Intended primarily to disable or destroy aircraft and small boats, the 30-kilowatt laser weapon is currently onboard the USS Ponce deployed in the Persian Gulf. It is predicted to be combat ready by 2020. A full-power hundred-kilowatt Free Electron Laser is slated for testing in 2018, and might see use on the Navy’s new Zumwalt-class stealth destroyers. The Navy plans to create 150 kilowatts lasers in more distant future.

To believe what the media say – the US has made a great stride ahead to acquire a superweapon, giving it a critical advantage over any potential enemy in the world. No doubt, the ongoing tests testify to the fact that the US Navy has achieved some progress in developing small-size laser systems capable of striking small targets at limited ranges. This is a story of success but it also calls for an objective review.

There are limitations and shortcomings.

Directed energy weapons are still in their relatively early days. The maximum range is limited as laser energy tends to diffuse in the atmosphere, especially when obstructed by sand, smoke or fog. Atmospheric absorption, scattering, and turbulence prevent shipboard lasers from being all weather weapons.

A laser beam has difficulty burning through denser materials. It needs time to inflict the damage and disable a heavy projectile. With no kinetic impact, a laser may fail to stop the target. In theory, laser weapons may be used for offensive missions, but the primary function is defensive. The LaWS has a very limited operational range – one to three km. It is no comparison to other combat systems. Lasers are no substitute for guns and missiles. They can add to the defensive capabilities but cannot be used as primary strike weapons.

The operator of a laser weapon must account for the movement of the target, the movement of the firing platform, decoys, dummies, or multiple war warheads that the enemy may use. Countermeasures to laser guidance also include laser detection systems, smoke screen and anti-laser active protection systems. Targets can be coated with materials that can absorb laser energy. Countering saturation attacks is also a problem.

Are laser weapons as low price as they are described for advertising purposes? But an infrared laser’s sophisticated optical guidance system and focusing lenses are not cheap. The weapon is fast but still a target must be designated, information processed and communicated to ensure accuracy. It is not done as immediately as media describe, it does take a few seconds. So, it is not exactly “the speed of light”. Besides, a laser weapons is installed on a platform vulnerable to precision-guided weapons.

There are some legal restrictions: the 1995 Protocol On Blinding Laser Weapons, a part of the United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons – forbids the use of “dazzler” lasers explicitly designed to permanently blind the eyesight of adversaries. It discourages the use of laser combat systems as anti-personnel weapons but it can be used against platforms – aircraft, armor vehicles and ships.

The LaWS is no game changer. It boasts no dominant role in modern warfare. Besides, with the current tests conducted with a thumb pressed firmly on the scale, the system has never seen combat. With all the limitations mentioned above, the weapon will not likely be ready for prime time anytime soon.

Navy Unveils World's First Active Laser Weapon In Persian Gulf

Three months ago we introduced China"s "silent hunter" experimental laser gun, and now, as CNN reports, in the waters of the Persian Gulf looms the US Navy"s first - in fact, the world"s first - active laser weapon.

The LaWS, an acronym for Laser Weapons System, is not science fiction. It is not experimental. It is deployed on board the USS Ponce amphibious transport ship, ready to be fired at targets today and every day by Capt. Christopher Wells and his crew.

CNN was granted exclusive access to a live-fire test of the laser.

For the test, the USS Ponce crew launched the target -- a drone aircraft. Immediately, the weapons team zeroed in.

"We don"t have to lead a target," Hughes explained. "We"re doing that engagement at the speed of light so it really is a point and shoot -- we see it, we focus on it, and we can negate that target."

In an instant, the drone"s wing lit up, heated to a temperature of thousands of degrees, lethally damaging the aircraft and sending it hurtling down to the sea. The strike comes silently and invisibly.

"It is more precise than a bullet," Wells told CNN.

"It"s not a niche weapon system like some other weapons that we have throughout the military where it"s only good against air contacts, or it"s only good against surface targets, or it"s only good against, you know, ground-based targets -- in this case this is a very versatile weapon, it can be used against a variety of targets."

LaWS begins with an advantage no other weapon ever invented comes even close to matching. It moves, by definition, at the speed of light. For comparison, that is 50,000 times the speed of an incoming ICBM.

"It is throwing massive amounts of photons at an incoming object," said Lt. Cale Hughes, laser weapons system officer.

"We don"t worry about wind, we don"t worry about range, we don"t worry about anything else. We"re able to engage the targets at the speed of light."

All the $40 million system needs to operate is a supply of electricity, which is derived from its own small generator, and has a crew of three. No multi-million-dollar missile, no ammunition at all.

The cost per use? "It"s about a dollar a shot," said Hughes.

President Trump"s military budget problems solved?

This Nation Just Became The World's Newest Energy Superpower

Authored by Dave Forest via OilPrice.com,

Lots of news this week on energy companies from one particular spot on Earth.

India.

In Lebanon — where reports suggest Indian state oil firm ONGC will bid for offshore blocks. In Canada — where Indian officials are said to be negotiating coking coal supplies. And even in Venezuela, where the cash-strapped government is seeking to sell ONGC a 9 percent stake in the key San Cristobal oil field.

And a new study released this week suggests it’s not coincidence we’re hearing so much about Indian companies on the energy stage.

In fact, India has quietly become one of the world’s biggest energy investors.

That revelation came from the International Energy Agency (IEA) — which released a report yesterday on energy investment trends for 2016. Showing that India’s investment in energy projects surged during the past year.

All told, India’s spending on electricity, oil and gas, coal and renewables jumped by 7 percent in 2016, as compared to the previous year. Reaching nearly $100 billion.

As the chart below shows, that rise was enough to vault India into third place globally for energy investment. Edging out oil giant Russia. India moved into third place globally for energy spending in 2016.

(Click to enlarge)

Of course, India’s energy spending is still a long way off second-place U.S. and top investor China. But the rapid rise of energy investment here shows this is an up-and-coming spot for project funding in oil and gas, and beyond.

IEA attributed India’s ascent to new government policies helping to modernize and expand the economy. Further evidence the country is “getting its act together” in becoming a true natural resource superpower.

That’s an important point of note for project developers globally. Especially given Indian firms seem to have appetite for places further out on the risk spectrum — evidenced by this week’s action in places like Lebanon and Venezuela.

As a final point of interest, the IEA study also showed that — for the first time ever — electricity passed oil and gas as the top energy sector for investment in 2016. Coming as capital spending in the global petroleum space plunged 38 percent between 2014 and 2016.

The group says however, that petro-spending should jump in 2017. Watch for Indian companies to be a big part of those deals and new projects.

Making Coal Great Again

It was a busy week at the coal-face.

On Monday, BP"s annual review of global energy trends showed that coal production dropped by record numbers in 2016.

Coal production fell off by 231 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe), a unit of energy common in the energy industry, roughly the equivalent of 6.2 percent of all coal on Earth.

As PopularMechanics.com reports, the decline was most prominent in two of the planet"s largest powers, the United States and China. The U.S, which elected a president dedicated to reviving the coal industry, saw production fall by 33 mtoe, an 8.8 percent fall in total usage. China, which is aggressively pursuing renewable energy, saw a drop off of 26 mtoe, a 1.6 percent change. The UK, which began a transition program to low carbon energy usage in 2009, more than halved its usage of coal, a 52.5 percent down to 12 mtoe, bringing it to its lowest levels in BP"s recorded history.

In a separate report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Friday, officials noted that U.S. coal consumption in 2016 — 677 million short tons — is the lowest figure since 1984.

Then, on Tuesday, President Trump proudly tweeted about the opening of the first new coal mine in recent memory...

Congratulations!

"First New Coal Mine of Trump Era Opens in Pennsylvania" https://t.co/aIRllxNLQA

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 12, 2017

Corsa Coal Company will operate the mine in Somerset County, Pa. - outside of Pittsburgh. Corsa CEO George Dethlefsen said the mine will be a boon to the struggling local economy. He praised Trump"s easing of regulations and encouragement for fossil fuel exploration. Dethlefsen told Leland Vittert that for the 70 positions available in the mine, 400 people applied.

"It"s a hard day"s work every day, but it"s worth it," one miner said.

Vittert said the news contrasts with Hillary Clinton"s message that she would "put a lot of coal miners out of work."

Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf (D), who endorsed Clinton, joined the mine company in watching a video message from Trump commemorating the occasion.

And then on Thursday, we got Industrial Production data showing that Coal Mining Production is exploding...

h/t @DonDraperClone

Make Coal Great Again indeed... though of course the base effect may slow this exuberance dramatically.

Is This The First Sign Of A US-Chinese Solar War?

Authored by Gregory Brew via OilPrice.com,

After a banner year for solar power installation in the United States, reports on the progress of solar power in the first quarter of 2017 have industry advocates hopeful that renewable energy will continue to grow throughout the year, despite competition from fossil fuels, U.S. government support for traditional energy sources and resistance towards cheap imported solar panels by domestic manufacturers.

The first months of 2017 saw 2 gigawatts of photovoltaic panels added, continuing a six-quarter streak and a huge boost in solar installations that came at the end of 2016, when more than 6 GWs were installed. The growth in Q1 of 2017 marks a slight decrease of 2 percent from the level last year, but it’s still indicative of an overall growth trend, as total additions have increased year on year since 2012, according to the Solar Market Insight Report.

Out of the 2 GWs added, about a quarter came in the form of rooftop panels added in the households segment, while utilities added the bulk of new production. The non-residential solar market has increased 29 percent year-on-year.

The growth comes as costs continue to fall. The report from the Solar Energy Industries Association indicated that for the first time, utility-scale costs for power fell below $1/Watt. Solar power accounted for 30 percent of total electricity capacity added in Q1, while natural gas came in at 41 percent and wind power 27 percent.

Solar now accounts for about 2 percent of total electricity generation in the U.S., behind wind power at 6 percent and natural gas at 34 percent.

Most of the projects currently adding new solar capacity were planned some years ago, and there is some speculation that continued growth in solar power will slow due to policies undertaken by the Trump Administration, a strong advocate for conventional oil and gas. Yet the SEIA estimates that 12.6 GWs of solar power will be added in 2017, a slight decrease from 2016 but a strong indicator of growth nonetheless.

While there is wariness on the part of the industry towards the attitude of the Trump Administration, including its decision to withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement, the mood continues to be cautiously optimistic, according to a report from the Washington Post.

A potential challenge could come in the form of federal action against important solar panels.

Suniva, an Atlanta-based solar power manufacturer, has argued that imported panels at rock-bottom prices has cut into its bottom line and forced it to lay off hundreds of workers. In late May the U.S. government agreed to hear Suniva’s claims and is now mulling the possibility of a tariff on imported solar panels and modules.

Suniva filed for bankruptcy in April, and shortly thereafter applied for relief against imported competition. Such applications, filed under Section 201 of the 1974 Trade Act, are quite rare, yet the federal government has already indicated its willingness to hear the case. Should the International Trade Commission rule in favor of Suniva, prices on solar panels would return to 2012 levels, rendering many planned projects uneconomic and potentially dooming the growth of solar power in the United States.

The SEIA has come out against the case. The ITC has determined that Suniva’s grievances are representative of the entire solar industry, but SEIA has argued that this is not the case and that a ruling in Suniva’s favor would be disastrous for solar power.

A second manufacturer, SolarWorld, has joined Suniva in requesting a federal investigation of solar panel imports. Meanwhile, SQN Capital Management, Suniva’s chief creditor, has hinted that a buy-out of the company’s assets by Chinese solar panel manufacturers would settle the issue, allowing the company to rehire its former employees and remain in business.

The U.S. has alerted the World Trade Organization that it is considering tariffs against imported solar panels, with a ruling from the ITC likely to come by November 2017.

Such an act would be chiefly aimed at China, which leads the world in solar panel production and exports, and it would be an aggressive move from a federal government which has thus far utilized both protectionist rhetoric and attitudes decidedly hostile towards renewable energy.

It will take some months before the Suniva dispute has any impact. In the meantime, solar power will continue to grow in the United States, driven by low cost, high demand and rising interest in renewable energy.

Can Trump Turn Back Time On Coal Mining Employment?

President Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday, repealing many of the environmental regulations introduced by his predecessor Barack Obama and rescinding a moratorium on the leasing of federal land to coal mining companies. In “ending the war on coal”, Trump tries to make good on his campaign promise to bring thousands of unemployed coal miners back to work and secure U.S. energy independence.

As Statista"s Felix Richter notes, Trump, like many of his supporters, blames Obama’s environmental policies for the coal industry’s decline, which, as the chart below illustrates, started long before Obama took office in 2009. While it is true that coal consumption and mining employment did drop significantly during Obama’s presidency, experts keep pointing out that the decline was caused primarily by the rise of natural gas and only secondarily by environmental regulation.

You will find more statistics at Statista

In the late 2000s, a boom in natural gas production, driven by new hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technology, drove down prices for natural gas and the demand for electricity produced from coal subsequently plummeted. In 2000, coal accounted for more than 50 percent of U.S. electricity generation. By 2016, that percentage had dropped to around 30 percent with natural gas going the opposite direction. When natural gas surpassed coal for the first time in 2016, the EIA concluded that the rise of gas “was mainly a market-driven response to lower natural gas prices that have made natural gas generation more economically attractive”.

Repealing environmental regulation will likely slow down the decline of the coal industry, but it is highly doubtful that it will reverse a trend that has been ongoing for decades. By easing fracking limitations, President Trump’s anti-regulation policy may even worsen the coal industry’s situation as laxer extraction rules could drive down the price of natural gas even further.

Visualizing America's Changing Energy Mix

Today’s chart plots data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to show America’s changing energy mix, along with their projected mix for 2030.

Visual Capitalist"s Jeff Desjardins points out that it shows the total amount of energy used each year, along with energy use per capita. It then breaks down each year’s energy supply by source, which provides another way for us to visualize the decline of coal use, the resurgence in natural gas, and the rise of renewable energy.

Energy use per capita is measured in “gallons of gasoline equivalent per day”, which we thought was easy to relate to. (For our metric friends, a U.S. gallon is just less than four litres.)

Interestingly, solar and wind only make up about 2% of energy today according to the EIA, and they are projected to combine for 6% by 2030.

Various organizations have criticized these numbers, suggesting that the EIA is not properly accounting for green energy in America – and that it actually supplies a much bigger part of the energy mix.

Oil Market Analysis 1-2-2017 (Video)

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