Showing posts with label Freedom party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Freedom party. Show all posts

Sunday, December 24, 2017

EU Militarizes Africa To Halt Migration

Authored by Finian Cunningham via The Strategic Culture Foundation,


Fighting terrorism is now morphing into clamping down on human migration, as far as the European Union is concerned.


France’s President Emmanuel Macron is leading the charge, claiming at a conference in Paris last week that terrorism and human trafficking are part of the same problem, requiring the deployment of a military force spread across Africa.



The melding of the two concepts provokes serious legal and moral questions.


But so desperate, it seems, is the EU to halt illegal migration into the bloc that it is moving to militarize the problem in Africa – under the guise of “fighting terrorism”.


This is tantamount to European Neo-imperialism. That is, attempting to sort out deep-seated socio-economic problems down the barrel of a gun. Not only that, but using futile heavy-handed methods to deal with problems that European powers themselves are responsible for creating.


Such an approach will only worsen humanitarian problems for millions of displaced war-torn and impoverished people. In typical arrogant imperialist fashion, the EU is not addressing root causes of the problem – its own role in shattering African societies from illegal wars and predatory economics.


The panicky reaction this week in Brussels to the formation of the new Austrian government led by populist Chancellor Sebastian Kurz shows that the other European powers are still rattled by the rise of nationalistic politics across Europe and the underlying long-term problem of migration into the EU.


Kurz’s People’s Party has formed a coalition government with the Freedom Party. Both share anti-immigration policies and are deeply critical of the EU. The new Austrian administration has been described with trepidation in the news media as the first “far-right” government in the European Union. That epithet appears to be aimed at demonizing the new Austrian authorities with the taint of “fascism”.


However, what seems to be the real concern among the pro-EU governments of Germany and France is that Austria rekindles wider fears in regard to large uncontrolled flows of refugees entering into Europe and the knock-on effect of rising anti-EU populist politics that those fears tend to fan.


Another sign of the EU’s concern over the flow of migrants into the bloc is the attempt by France, Germany and Italy to morph the issue of refugees into one of “fighting terrorism”. This is an audacious, not to say reprehensible, step of treating a humanitarian crisis with military force. But because the emotive “anti-terror” card is invoked, the intention is to mask the controversial, unethical move with a veneer of humanitarianism.


Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a summit in Paris which was billed as countering terrorism in the Sahel – the vast Northwest desert region of Africa. Macron has taken the lead earlier this year in forming what is known as the Group of Five (G5) countries straddling the Sahel region, comprising Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mauritania.


The leaders of the G5 were hosted by Macron at a chateau near Paris on December 13. Also in attendance were German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italy’s premier Paolo Gentiloni. Significant too was the attendance at the summit by the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.


In a brazen appeal for financial funding, Macron asked the Saudis and Emiratis to stump up money for the G5 military force. Both the oil-rich states responded with pledges of $100 million and $30 million, respectively. Other donors to the G5 “anti-terror operations” were the EU and the United States, each pledging $60 million. In other words, the Saudis and Emiratis are bankrolling the G5 “anti-terror” military coalition to the tune of nearly half its total budget.


The G5 comprises some 4,000 troops from the five mentioned African countries – all of them former French colonies. The French forces in the region are believed to number around the same. There are also American special forces operating, as was shown by the dramatic deadly shootout in Niger in October when four US troops were killed in an ambush.


What Macron is claiming to do is to replace the French forces with local troops from the G5. That move will save Paris millions of euro it is currently shelling out on the presence of its military in the Sahel. Knowing that these poor African countries would never be able to finance the operations, the French president is deftly involving the Saudis and Emiratis in the funding.


Macron’s proposal beggars belief. Given the record of the Gulf Arab hardline Sunni regimes in sponsoring terrorism across the Middle East, it is absurd to propose that these same regimes could support “anti-terror” operations in the Sahel.


The contradiction raises the real issue and purpose. France, Germany and Italy, on behalf of the EU, are actually using the moral and political cover of “fighting terrorism” in Africa to further their agenda of stemming the flow of migrants from the continent to Europe. And getting the Gulf Arabs to pay for it. The latter get PR value in return.


It is reckoned that the total African population will double in the next three decades to some 2.5 billion people. That presents European leaders with a formidable headache of worsening migration flows. Already in the last two years, there is estimated to have been 1.5 million refugees entering the EU, many of them from Africa. That phenomenon has, in turn, fueled anti-immigrant political parties across Europe who blame the EU political establishment for the problem. The populist backlash poses a threat to the cohesiveness of the EU. It was one of the issues that drove the British electorate to vote last year for leaving the bloc.


Rather than sniffing at “populist” politics in Austria, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Denmark, France, Italy, Netherlands and Germany – and denigrating it as “fascist” – European leaders need to question their own responsibility. It is understandable that European communities can feel unnerved by the sudden influx of foreigners into their country. Given the relentless socio-economic austerity imposed on communities by Neo-Liberal capitalist governments, the anxieties over scarce public resources are accentuated, and understandable.


Moreover, the European members of the US-led NATO military alliance bear direct responsibility for opening the migration floodgates when they destroyed the state of Libya in an illegal war for regime change in 2011. France, Italy, Britain and Germany, among others, were complicit in that criminal war.


France too went on an illegal military expedition in Mali in 2013 to “defeat terrorism” – and its forces remain in that country today.


The real reason for that French intervention may likely have been securing uranium ore mines in Mali and Niger.


All those illegal military interventions by the Europeans in Northwest Africa unleashed militants, migration and human trafficking on a massive scale.


A report last week by Amnesty International also openly condemned European governments for colluding with human traffickers in Libya by forcibly sending would-be migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean back into the clutches of the traffickers on land.


Europe is so desperate to stem the flow of migrants because it is destabilizing the internal politics of the EU. So desperate is Europe that it is willing to force refugees back into the human trafficking networks to a fate of slavery in order to impede the flow into Europe.


Macron’s military “solution” for the Sahel is part of the same futile problem-solving. The French president, with the support of Germany, Italy and the rest of the EU, is using military force to combat “terrorism and human trafficking” which he equates as the same.


Furthermore, Macron and the EU are trying to do it on the cheap, by getting the Saudis and Emiratis to pay a large part of the budget.


This militarist policy is nothing short of a Neo-imperialist agenda in Europe, which can only make matters much, much worse.


European powers, as with the Americans, must stop interfering militarily in the affairs of Africa.


What is needed is a radical new economic and political model of massive public investment in Africa and Europe. The money is there, from the trillions of dollars that European corporations have stashed away in global tax havens. In short, what is required is a repudiation of neoliberal capitalism and the militarism that goes with it.


But there can be no solution under the current political leadership in Europe, as epitomized by French President Emmanuel Macron. Under the cynical guise of being a “liberal progressive”, he is offering the same old destructive policies that end up digging ever deeper holes for societies and the wider world.


So much for his recent corny slogan copying Trump, “Make the Planet Great Again”.


The false solution of dealing with European migration as a military problem of “terrorism” and “human traffickers” only lets the real perpetrators of the problems off the hook. France and the other European NATO powers have created their own problems from illegal wars and predatory economic policies. Now they want to “solve” those problems by adding more of the same problems. Make the Planet Groan Again.









Thursday, December 21, 2017

New Austrian Gov"t Promises "Sanctions" Against Migrants Who Don"t Integrate

Authored by Jacob Boejesson via The Daily Caller,


Austria’s incoming conservative government is taking a hard line on immigration by promising “sanctions” against those “refusing to integrate.”



Sebastian Kurz, 31, is set to become the world’s youngest leader after winning the parliamentary election in October with his People’s Party. Kurz will serve as chancellor with support from the populist Freedom Party.


A new platform unveiled Monday calls for faster deportations and a halt to illegal immigration. The main emphasis for migrants will be put on integrating to Austrian society by adopting local values.


Monthly payments to migrants will be cut to 365 euros ($432 USD) with the possibility of earning an “integration bonus” of 155 euros ($184 USD).


“We want to protect our homeland Austria as a liveable place with all its cultural assets,” the new government’s platform reads, according to The Local.


 


“This includes deciding for ourselves who can immigrate and live with us and ending illegal immigration.”



The new government has also proposed reforms that would allow authorities to access migrants’ cell phones to verify their identity and travel routes. Migrants may also be asked to hand over any cash and belongings as they enter the country to help fund their welfare.


An estimated 5,500 people marched against the new government Monday in the capital of Vienna.


Protestors shouted “Nazis out” and “Refugees welcome” in response to the Freedom Party’s role in the new administration. The protests were small compared to the last time the Freedom Party entered government in 2000, when an estimated 150,000 participated in demonstrations.









Sunday, December 17, 2017

Austria"s Anti-Immigrant Freedom Party Enters Government; Wins Key Ministry Posts

Two months ago, in Europe"s latest shocking, anti-establishment outcome, Austria"s 31-year-old Sebastian Kurz became the world"s youngest leader after his conservative People"s Party won the Austrian National Council elections, making him Austria"s youngest Chancellor in history, while the establishment Social Democrat party suffered its "worst result since Hitler rule."



Sebastian Kurz and his girlfriend Susanne Thier


And now, two months later, in a double whammy for Europe"s outraged liberal establishment, the anti-immigrant Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) - which finished third in October"s elections with 26% of the vote, less than a percent behind the Social Democrats, has joined a coalition government with Sebastian Kurz and his People’s Party (OVP). The agreement between the People’s Party and the Freedom Party, which is returning to government after more than a decade"s absence, was struck on Friday, the two parties’ leaders, Sebastian Kurz and Heinz-Christian Strache announced in a joint news conference.


Austria"s president approved the new coalition on Saturday, two months after inconclusive elections. According to BBC, the coalition government makes Austria the only country in Western Europe to have a far-right party in power.



Sebastian Kurz and Freedom Party chair Heinz-Christian Strache


Introducing the new government, and the 180-page document setting out its agenda, Mr Kurz said the two parties had agreed "on a clear pro-European outlook". Meanwhile, Strache, who in January advocated a law similar to the ban on Nazi practices to be introduced against “fascist Islam,” spoke about “mutual appreciation” with Kurz, adding that they share “the responsibility for our homeland Austria and for the people in this country.”


While the two parties have yet to unveil the details of the coalition agreement, some of the key points that will shape the next government have already been discussed: among them is a further crackdown on migration


“We want to reduce the burden on taxpayers ... and above all we want to ensure greater security in our country, including through the fight against illegal immigration,” Kurz said.


And while the FPO will be the junior coalition partner, it has already secured several critical posts in the new cabinet. Party leader Heinz-Christian Strache will be vice-chancellor, while his party colleagues will run the ministries of the interior, defense and health and social security. Specifically, Herbert Kickl, will be the new iterior minister: the party"s general secretary and campaign director, 49, was a speechwriter for the late party leader Jorg Haider and is a close confidant of the current leader, Hans-Christian Strache.


For one, the sweep assures that any and all benefits for migrants will be eliminated. To be sure, the opposition has expressed concern that the police and the security apparatus are now all firmly in the hands of the Freedom Party.


Separately, the new foreign minister will be Middle East expert and writer Karin Kneissl, who is not a Freedom Party member but was nominated by the party, which to some suggests that the Freedom Party now effectively runs Austria.  At the request of Austria"s president, the posts of justice minister and interior minister would not be held by the same party, Mr Kurz said.


Today"s crowning success of the far-right Freedom Party, which gained 7 percentage points on the previous elections, come amid a backlash to the immigrant wave that swept Europe in 2015 in the aftermath of Angela Merkel"s now defunct "open door" policy. The party"s hardline anti-immigrant stance emerged after Austria was overwhelmed by a wave of refugees fleeing the US-stoked proxy war in Syria.


Since 2015, the Alpine country took in some 150,000 asylum seekers, which accounts for over 1 percent of its population, one of the largest shares per capita alongside Sweden. The signs of the growing popularity of the far-right was evident in December last year, when Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer’s bid to become modern Austria"s first far-right president was only narrowly defeated in a neck-and-neck contest with centrist Van der Bellen.


And so, with Austria set to form a right-wing government, institutionalized opposition to Europe"s liberal “open door” policies on migrants is no longer restricted to the EU"s eastern territories. Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, with their own conservative governments, remain staunchly opposed to the EU relocation scheme and refuse to take in a single refugee. Now, with Austria joining the "resistance", the anti-migrant wave have officially broken into central Europe.


And now, we await Europe"s response: when the Freedom Party last entered a coalition in Austria in 2000, the country"s fellow EU member states froze bilateral diplomatic relations in response. While they were lifted months later, such measures are unlikely to happen again, as resurgent populist groups have been promoting anti-immigration and eurosceptic agendas across much of the EU, and the last thing any other establishment party wants is to experience a similar revolution in the top political echelons.









Saturday, October 21, 2017

Pat Buchanan Asks: "Is Liberalism A Dying Faith?"

Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,


Asked to name the defining attributes of the America we wish to become, many liberals would answer that we must realize our manifest destiny since 1776, by becoming more equal, more diverse and more democratic - and the model for mankind’s future.


Equality, diversity, democracy - this is the holy trinity of the post-Christian secular state at whose altars Liberal Man worships.


But the congregation worshiping these gods is shrinking.


And even Europe seems to be rejecting what America has on offer.


In a retreat from diversity, Catalonia just voted to separate from Spain. The Basque and Galician peoples of Spain are following the Catalan secession crisis with great interest.


The right-wing People’s Party and far-right Freedom Party just swept 60 percent of Austria’s vote, delivering the nation to 31-year-old Sebastian Kurz, whose anti-immigrant platform was plagiarized from the Freedom Party. Summarized it is: Austria for the Austrians!


Lombardy, whose capital is Milan, and Veneto will vote Sunday for greater autonomy from Rome.


South Tyrol (Alto Adige), severed from Austria and ceded to Italy at Versailles, written off by Hitler to appease Mussolini after his Anschluss, is astir anew with secessionism. Even the Sicilians are talking of separation.


By Sunday, the Czech Republic may have a new leader, billionaire Andrej Babis. Writes The Washington Post, Babis “makes a sport of attacking the European Union and says NATO’s mission is outdated.”


Platform Promise: Keep the Muslim masses out of the motherland.


To ethnonationalists, their countrymen are not equal to all others, but superior in rights. Many may nod at Thomas Jefferson’s line that “All men are created equal,” but they no more practice that in their own nations than did Jefferson in his.


On Oct. 7, scores of thousands of Poles lined up along the country’s entire 2,000-mile border — to pray the rosary.


It was the centennial of the Virgin Mary’s last apparition at Fatima in Portugal in 1917, and the day in 1571 the Holy League sank the Muslim fleet at Lepanto to save Europe. G. K. Chesterton’s poem, “Lepanto,” was once required reading in Catholic schools.


Each of these traditionalist-nationalist movements is unique, but all have a common cause. In the hearts of Europe’s indigenous peoples is embedded an ancient fear: loss of the homeland to Islamic invaders.


Europe is rejecting, resisting, recoiling from “diversity,” the multiracial, multicultural, multiethnic and multilingual future that, say U.S. elites, is America’s preordained mission to bring about for all mankind.


Indeed, increasingly, the indigenous peoples of Europe seem to view as the death of their nations and continent, what U.S. liberal elites see as the Brave New World to come.



To traditionalist Europeans, our heaven looks like their hell.


Thus Poles fall on their knees to pray to the Virgin Mary to spare them from threats of an Islamic future, as their ancestors prayed at the time of Lepanto, and of Vienna in 1683, when the Polish King John Sobieski marched to halt the last Muslim drive into the heart of Europe.


European peoples and parties are today using democratic means to achieve “illiberal” ends. And it is hard to see what halts the drift away from liberal democracy toward the restrictive right. For in virtually every nation, there is a major party in opposition, or a party in power, that holds deeply nationalist views.


European elites may denounce these new parties as “illiberal” or fascist, but it is becoming apparent that it may be liberalism itself that belongs to yesterday. For more and more Europeans see the invasion of the continent along the routes whence the invaders came centuries ago, not as a manageable problem but an existential crisis.


To many Europeans, it portends an irreversible alteration in the character of the countries their grandchildren will inherit, and possibly an end to their civilization. And they are not going to be deterred from voting their fears by being called names that long ago lost their toxicity from overuse.


And as Europeans decline to celebrate the racial, ethnic, creedal and cultural diversity extolled by American elites, they also seem to reject the idea that foreigners should be treated equally in nations created for their own kind.


Europeans seem to admire more, and model their nations more, along the lines of the less diverse America of the Eisenhower era, than on the polyglot America of 2017.


And Europe seems to be moving toward immigration polices more like the McCarran-Walter Act of 1950 than the open borders bill that Sen. Edward Kennedy shepherded through the Senate in 1965.


Kennedy promised that the racial and ethnic composition of the America of the 1960s would not be overturned, and he questioned the morality and motives of any who implied that it would.


So, why is liberalism dying?


Because it is proving to be what James Burnham called it in his 1964 “Suicide of the West” — the ideology of Western suicide.


What we see in Europe today is people who, belatedly recognizing this, have begun to “rage, rage, against dying of the light.”









Sunday, October 15, 2017

In Historic Result, 31-Year-Old Wins Austrian Elections, Worst Result For Establishment Party Since Hitler Rule

In another stunning defeat for Europe"s establishment, as previewed earlier this morning Austria"s 31-year-old Sebastian Kurz is assured victory in the Austrian National Council elections, becoming Chancellor with his center-right People"s Party set to take roughly 30.2% of the vote - the best result in almost two decades - according  to exit polls by Austrian broadcaster ORF, while just as shocking is that the anti-immigrant, nationalist Freedom Party appears set to top the Social Democrats in 2nd place with 26.8% of the vote: the two parties are expected to form a coalition government. If confirmed out by final results, that would be its strongest performance for the Freedom Party since the 26.9% it won in 1999 when the party was led by the charismatic Jorg Haider. Meanwhile, Chancellor Christian Kern"s Social Democrats are looking at another devastating - for Europe"s establishment - loss, sliding to 3rd spot with just 26.3% of the vote.


The full breakdown from the initial exit polls vs the last election results in 2013:


  • People’s Party (Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz) 30.5% vs 24%

  • Freedom Party (Heinz-Christian Strache) 26.8% vs 20.5%

  • Social Democrats (Chancellor Christian Kern) 26.2% vs 26.8% in 2013

  • Neos (Matthias Strolz) 5.3% vs 5%

  • Greens (Ulrike Lunacek) 4.7% vs 12.4%

  • Liste Pilz (Peter Pilz) 4.3% (didn’t run in 2013)



The preliminary geographic breakdown of Sunday"s election shows that most constituencies voted for the People"s Party:



It remains to be seen if and how Kurz will form a coalition with the anti-immigrant Freedom Party - a historic outcome for the nationalist party which could enter government for the first time in history - however one thing is clear: just like in Germany, where Merkel"s CDU/CSU suffered its worst result since 1949, so in Austria the "establishment" SPÖ, or Social Democrat party just suffered what Europe Elects described as the "worst result since Hitler rule."



We now await the market"s reaction to the news that Europe"s populist anti-establishment, anti-immigrant revolt, considered to have been dead and buried following the French elections, was not only revived after last month"s German election, but is once again thriving.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

AfD In 3rd Place In German Election Polls: Unhappy Political Marriages Loom

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,


German federal elections are Sunday, September 24. The most likely outcome of the election is another “Grand Coalition” but it will be a much-weakened coalition.  And If that coalition forms again, the rightwing AfD party is poised to become the largest opposition party.




Rightwing Turning Point


The Wall Street Journal reports Nationalist AfD Party Moves Into Third Place in German Election Polls





A last-minute surge in the polls has put a far-right party that wants to dial down German remembrance of the Holocaust within striking distance of becoming the country’s biggest opposition force.



The four-year-old Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has moved into third place and double digits in recent polls. If those numbers hold up until the Sept. 24 election and German Chancellor Angela Merkel repeats her current governing coalition with the center-left Social Democrats, the AfD would become the biggest opposition party in parliament.



No matter how exactly the results shake out, Sunday’s election seems assured to represent a turning point in postwar German history. Ms. Merkel’s center-right Christian Democrats are set to finish first, and she is expected to remain chancellor. But the AfD, polls show, is very likely to become the first far-right party in more than half a century to win seats in parliament.



“If the AfD in fact gets into the Bundestag, Nazis will be speaking in the Reichstag [building] for the first time in more than 70 years,” Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel recently told German magazine, Der Spiegel.



Political scientists say while the AfD isn’t a neo-Nazi party, it includes a right-wing-radical wing that appears to be strengthening. And without question, the anti-immigrant party breaks taboos in a country that has resisted right-wing populism for decades in the shadow of the Nazi era.



In parliament, AfD lawmakers would receive state financing to hire new staff and to set up offices in their districts, increasing the party’s nationwide reach. They would hold key seats on legislative committees, make nationally televised speeches, and be able to send official inquiries to the government, which ministries are required to answer.



Polls suggest the AfD draws voters from across the political spectrum who are unhappy with mainstream politics, particularly on immigration. A strong showing by the AfD could complicate things for Ms. Merkel by preventing her from being able to form a governing coalition with just one of two smaller parties, the pro-business Free Democrats or the environmentalist Greens. Instead, she may well need to form an unwieldy three-way coalition including them both—despite their ideological differences—and her conservative bloc. Repeating her current “grand coalition” with the Social Democrats would require her to overcome misgivings in both parties.



Eurointelligence View





For many international observers Germany is the exception: In times of Donald Trump, Brexit and Emmanuel Macron, Germans seem to live on another continent of social peace and political harmony. There is nothing of the desire for renewal witnessed during the French elections, or the desire to distinguish themselves shown by the Brexit vote. There is no major populist insurgency. Controversial subjects of our times like terrorism, refugees, immigration, military engagement, or nationalism, are avoided, observes Jean-Dominique Giuliani, president of the Robert Schuman Foundation.



But this peace is superficial, notes Philippe Rocard in Le Monde. There are about 20-30% frustrated voters in Germany, angry about Angela Merkel and her motto “Wir schaffen das” (we can make it) in immigration policy, or her handouts to bailout countries during the eurozone crisis. The three parties that capture the rising protest are the AFD, Die Linke and even the FDP with its radicalised discourse against Greece.



The rise of the AfD, which looks like it could become the third strongest party only four years after its foundation, would be a turning point in postwar German history, notes the WSJ. Never since the 1950s has a far-right party cleared the 5% hurdle. According to the recent polls, the AfD could get as many as 89 out of 703 seats. With its xenophobic and nationalistic rhetoric, the party breaks taboos in a country that has resisted right-wing populism for decades. To be fair, these numbers are still small compared to Austria where the Freedom party is polling 25%, or France where Marine Le Pen received 34% in the presidential run-off. But for Germany it is a major shift.



Unhappy Marriages


CDU (36) + FDP (22) would have a total percentage of about 58%. But many in SPD would prefer the SPD to be in opposition. Should that develop, SPD would be the largest opposition party.


If SDP chooses opposition, Merkel could form a majority government via an alliance of CDU (36), the Greens (7), and FDP (9). Currently, that alliance would have a bare majority with 52% of the vote.


Regardless of what happens, Merkel will be in a much-weakened position compared to now.


And other than a miracle CDU/FDP finish that achieves more than 50%, it may take quite some time after the election for the next government to form.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Juncker Unveils Grand Vision For A United States Of Europe

European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker delivered his annual state of the union address on Wednesday, in which he laid out his grand vision for federalist Europe, and urged European Union governments to use economic recovery (i.e., Mario Draghi"s nationalization of the bond market), the political weakness in the US and Brexit as "springboards" toward a closer union, built on an expanded euro zone and a pivotal role in world trade. The allegedly unintoxicated Juncker sketched out a vision of a post-2019 EU where 30 countries would be using the euro, with an EU finance minister running key budgets to help states in trouble.



Among the key proposals put forward by the EU Commission president were compulsory Euro membership for the remaining eight European states outside the bloc, for new countries to join the Schengen zone, plans for closer defensive cooperation leading to the creation of a European army in the next decade and easier ratification of EU-wide trade treaties with foreign powers. Tax and welfare standards would converge and Europe, not the United States, would be the hub of a free-trading world.


In short, a blueprint for a United States of Europe.



“The wind is back in Europe’s sails,” Junker told the European Parliament quoted by Reuters, citing economic growth and the easing of a succession of crises -- Greek debt, refugee inflows, the rise of eurokcepticism reflected in Brexit - that seemed to threaten the EU’s survival.


Juncker has also resurrected the idea of merging his own post with that of the President of the European Council, who currently represents the interests of its member state governments, saying it would be easier if “one captain was steering the ship.” Such as president would be chosen in an EU-wide vote. A powerful new EU-wide economy minister has also been touted, one which would have power to whip dissenters in line with a common EU vision.


In his best infomercial salesman immitation, Juncker urged Europeans to hurry, or else the generous offer may not last: “Now we have a window of opportunity, but it will not stay open for ever,” he said, emphasizing a need to move on from and even profit from the British vote to leave the bloc in 2019 according to Reuters.


Some promptly backed Juncker"s blueprint: German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that Juncker’s plan to build a closer European Union based on an expanded euro zone was largely in line with Germany’s vision for the bloc. The German also said that Juncker had discussed with Chancellor Angela Merkel his annual State of the EU speech in which he spoke of a vision of a post-2019 EU where some 30 countries would be using the euro.


“It is good that he is putting pressure (to expand the euro zone) but the preconditions (for joining the euro zone) must be fulfilled,” Schaeuble told the ARD broadcaster in an interview. “It is in fact so that EU countries who fulfill the preconditions become members of the euro under the Lisbon Treaty”. However, the German who in the summer of 2015 nearly kicked Greece out of the Eurozone, added that EU countries wishing to adopt the single currency should not do so before their public finances and economies are sound enough as they could face the fate of Greece, which had to be bailed out by the EU and IMF in 2010.


* * *


Desperate to put the Brexit humiliation in the rearview mirror, Juncker said that “we will keep moving on because Brexit isn’t everything, it is not the future of Europe," Brexit supporters promptly said his speech showed they were right to take Britain out of a bloc set on creating more powerful, central institutions. The most predictable opponent of the hour-long speech, met with stirring applause by a mostly zombified audience, was UK MEP Nigel Farage.


"The message is very clear: Brexit has happened, new steam ahead… More Europe in every single direction and all to be done without the consent of the people,” Farage told the floor.


“The way you’re treating Hungary and Poland already must remind them of living under the Soviet communists. All I can say is thank God we’re leaving because you’ve learned nothing from Brexit.


It wasn"t just the Farage: Juncker"s core proposal for countering what is known as a “multispeed Europe” by encouraging all states to join the euro and other EU structures was met resistance in both non-euro zone countries and potentially in Paris and Berlin, where the newly elected President Emmanuel Macron and about-to-be-re-elected Chancellor Angela Merkel are readying their own plans.


Poland’s Eurosceptic ruling PiS party, which is embroiled in a bitter legal fight  suggested the plan is optimistic in view of the ongoing crisis with migration, unemployment, stagnation and terrorism. “We need to get the EU’s house in order before there can even be a discussion on centralizing even further,” said Ryszard Legutko, a PiS MEP.


Opposition also came from members of the European parliament’s left-wing coalitions.


“When I listen to [Juncker’s speech] with the ears of many people who feel left behind by the current macroeconomic policies that we have, then I have my doubts because he still pushes for free trade deals that basically are tailor-made for multinationals,” Philippe Lamberts, of the Greens-European Free Alliance group told the Daily Express.


However, the most focused and principled attack on Juncker’s plans came from Harald Vilimsky, of Austria’s Freedom Party, which prompted Juncker to leave mid-speech, and once again demonstrated the deep splinters within the core of the Union, splinters which make the integration Juncker is seeking impossible.


“What Mr Junker wants de facto is to force the European union into a single state, and we know that the euro is not a success story. The second thing Mr Junker wants is de facto to actually get rid of all the internal borders, we see 10,000, 100,000, millions of African and Arabs are going to be coming to our continent,” said Vilimsky, who serves as the vice-chair of the Europe of Nations and Freedom party within the European Parliament.


“They talk about having a defense union, but no we don’t want that. What we want is Austrians, we’re a neutral country in Austria, we do not want to participate in the defense union. The right road for Europe can only be the road where there is more democracy left to the people, more democracy left to the citizens where people can vote whether or not they want to have Schengen maintained or not, whether they want their borders or not. The vote has to be left to the citizen.”


Aside from his traditional adversaries whose opposition was expected, what was more troubling is that Juncker"s "grand vision" also appeared to get the cold shoulder from leaders of nominally pro-EU nations. “Juncker is a romantic. We all have our own style, but I am more pragmatic,” said Netherlands PM Mark Rutte in response to the speech, adding that those “too concerned with vision should visit an eye doctor.”


Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said he was against creating an EU-super-president, tweeting “Let’s not mix roles and competences. Need European Council President as voice of member states."


Meanwhile, Germany and France, the two foundational powers in the union, are preparing to submit their own plans for EU reform by the end of 2017, and while their current leaders remain in favor of the EU, it is unlikely that either will endorse Juncker’s federalism without a mandate from their respective electorates.


In short, Juncker"s speech like virtually everything else out of Brussels in recent years, was just more hot air.

Monday, March 13, 2017

Holland's Anti-EU 'Freedom Party' Boosted As Turkish Tensions Mount

With less than 48 hours until polling begins in the first major European election of the year, Bloomberg reports that snap polls show support for the anti-Islam, euroskeptic Freedom Party of populist Geert Wilders being re-energized after the last few days chaotic events surrounding Turkey.



Just as we warned over the weekend, in the near-term, however, the outstanding question is how will Saturday"s events impact Wednesday"s Dutch general election, and whether the diplomatic clash will boost votes for Geert Wilders. As Reuters notes, "the diplomatic row comes in the run-up to the coming week"s Dutch election in which the mainstream parties are under strong pressure from the far-right party of Geert Wilders."


And this morning, as Bloomberg notes, after politicians on all sides rounded on the Turkish government for dispatching ministers to the Netherlands for domestic political ends on the eve of the Dutch election, Erdogan said on Sunday that the Netherlands would “pay the price” after Rutte’s government denied entry to Turkey’s foreign minister and escorted a second Turkish minister to the Dutch border.


Prime Minister Mark Rutte told NRC on Monday morning, when asked if the chance to play the role of the “strong” prime minister would help him on Wednesday.





“I wasn’t waiting for this... This cost me hours and hours of campaign time. But it’s just my job, being prime minster comes first.”



But as Kees Aarts, professor of political institutions and behavior at the University of Groningen, explains,





While "the cabinet has shown political decisiveness...  when you add everything up, what happened will clearly help Wilders. He wasn’t very visible during the campaign and not very involved. But in the end it’s his main theme that’s at stake now."



A snap poll on the incident by Peil.nl found that 86 percent of more than 2,000 respondents said that Rutte had done a good job during the dispute. However, it also found that Freedom Party voters were fired up, with Wilders supporters saying for first time during the campaign they would “certainly” vote for his party, known by its Dutch acronym, PVV. That could lead to higher turnout among PVV supporters at the election on March 15, according to Peil.nl.




So, as The Express asks (and answers), what will happen if Wilders wins?


Mr Wilders" election would mark Europe’s first political earthquake of the year ahead of the important French and German elections later in 2017. The far-right politician pledges to ‘de-islamise’ the country by closing its borders, banning Islamic headscarves, closing mosques and banning the Koran. He has vowed to take the Netherlands out of the EU as well stopping public money going towards development aid, windmills, the arts, innovation and broadcasting.


But what will really happens if Mr Wilders triumphs in the election next month?


Although Mr Wilders is projected to get the most votes in the election, the PVV will not be able to form a Government on its own. Unlike Britain and the US, the Netherlands is always ruled by a coalition of political parties due to the fragmented nature of Dutch politics. Winning the most seats does not automatically make Mr Wilders Prime Minister because the top job goes to the leader with the most seats in the coalition.


But VVD Prime Minister Mark Rutte has already ruled out a coalition between VVD and the PVV if Mr Wilders wins the election.





"No, we wouldn’t do that,” Liberal Prime Minister Mark Rutte says at news conference in Rotterdam when asked if he’ll co-operate in government with Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party after Wednesday’s election.



Rutte on previous experience in govt with Wilders: “When the crisis was the deepest, he ran away”



Other Dutch parties are also unwilling to form a coalition with him, according to Rem Korteweg, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform (CER).


“The result of that is going to be a political mess after the election,” Mr Korteweg said, noting that there could be political stalemate.


If the PVV is excluded from the coalition, then it will be very large, unwieldy and at risk of falling apart and leading to fresh elections. Even if Mr Wilders is blocked from real political power in the Netherlands, his election would be devastating blow for Europe’s liberal order.


The far-right populist victory could boost the chances of Front National leader Marine Le Pen in the French elections this spring.


It would also be welcomed by Frauke Petry - the woman leading the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) into the German federal elections in September.

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Angry Turks Protest Near Rotterdam Consulate As Dutch Embassy In Turkey Closed Off

Update 3: The Mayor of Rotterdam has issued an order to vacate the city"s center, where the Turkish protesters are situated



* * *


Update 2: Dutch authorities have arrested Turkey"s family minister and are deporting her to#Germany according to RTL. The escalation may lead to a spike by Turks in the Netherlands, with some speculating that a curfew is imminent:



Update: As expected, Gert Wilders has just chimed in, responding to the Turkish Family Minister who earlier in the day was barred by Dutch police from entering the Turkish consulate:



* * *


Hundreds of demonstrators waving Turkish flags gathered outside the Turkish consulate in the Dutch city of Rotterdam on Saturday night, demanding to see the Turkish minister for family affairs as a diplomatic scandal between the two countries escalated.





Earlier in the day, Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu was barred from flying into Rotterdam to participate in pro-Erdogan rallies, to which the Turkish president responded by calling the Dutch "fascists" and his NATO partner a Nazi remnant" as the scandal over Ankara campaigning among emigre Turkish voters, which has recently swept Germany, Switzerland and Austria, intensified.



The Dutch quickly responded:



In any case, as a protest built up by the Turkish consilate, the Police erected metal barriers and patrolled on horseback to keep the demonstrators away from the consulate as the crowd grew with more pro-Turkish protesters arriving from Germany, according to Reuters. A video released by a Turkish camera operator shows him being attacked by a police dog after he refused to leave the area in front of the consulate.




Turkish Family Minister Fatma Betul Sayan Kaya traveled by road to the Netherlands from neighboring Germany after the Dutch government revoked the landing rights for the plane carrying the foreign minister earlier on Saturday. Dutch TV footage showed police stopping the minister"s convoy near the Turkish consulate in Rotterdam and preventing her from entering the building.




The Dutch government said it did not want Turkish politicians campaigning among Turkish emigres in the Netherlands, leading President Tayyip Erdogan to brand the fellow NATO member a "Nazi remnant". The government also said it does not object to meetings in the Netherlands to give information about the Turkish referendum, "but these meetings should not add to tensions in our society and everybody who wants to organize a meeting must adhere to instructions from authorities so that public order and security can be guaranteed." It said the Turkish government "does not want to respect the rules in this matter."


Meanwhile, over in Turkey, the Dutch embassy and consulate in Turkey were closed off "for security reasons" on Saturday following the latest diplomatic scandal. The residences of the Dutch ambassador, charge d"affaires and consul general were also closed off, according to Reuters.


The Turkish Foreign Ministry said earlier in a statement that Ankara did not want “the Dutch ambassador, currently on leave, to return to his post for some time.”


“It has been explained to our counterparts that this grave decision taken against Turkey and the Dutch Turkish community will cause serious problems diplomatically, politically, economically and in other areas," the statement said, as cited by Reuters.


Turkey"s president Erdogan is expected to make a statement to the nation momentarily in response to the Dutch "provocation."


The unexpected escalation in tensions between the Netherlands and Turkey comes just three days ahead of the critical Dutch general election on March 15, in which the anti-immigration, anti-EU, Freedom Party of Geert Wilders is expected to emerge as the largest party. Today"s tensions may boost support for his platform which has seen a modest drop in public approval in recent days. A full preview of the Dutch General Election can be found here.

Monday, March 6, 2017

The Complete Preview Of The March 15 Dutch General Election

March 15 is not only the day when the FOMC is now widely expected to hike rates by another 25 bps, and when the US debt ceiling suspension expires, but just as importantly, is the date of the 2017 Dutch General Election. Here is a full preview of what to expect courtesy of RBC Capital Markets.


By way of background, the Netherlands is the euro area’s 5th-largest economy, a founding member of the EU and one of only 3 euro area countries (along with Germany and Luxembourg) to enjoy an AAA rating from the 3 main ratings agencies.


Netherlands general election – summary


  • Dutch voters cast their ballots in the country’s general election on Wednesday March 15th

  • According to opinion polls the (centre-right) VVD party of current Prime Minister Mark Rutte is vying with the anti-immigration, anti-EU, Freedom Party of Geert Wilders to emerge as the largest party

  • The election is the first in a series of votes this year that includes elections in France (April/May) and Germany (September), and potentially also Italy if early elections are announced later this year

  • A victory in the popular vote for Wilders could therefore be interpreted as a signal that anti-EU populist parties are coming to the fore in the EU ahead of those elections

  • However, the fractured nature of Dutch politics (it’s likely that up to 14 separate parties will win seats in parliament) means that the wider impact of Wilders emerging with the largest party may be limited

  • With no party set to command more than 30 seats in the 150-seat parliament, at least four parties will be required to form a government

  • Convention dictates that, were it to win the popular vote, Wilders’ Freedom Party would have first attempt at forming a government

  • However, most of the other main parties have ruled out co-operating with the Freedom Party and there is no rule that the government must contain the largest party

  • In order to deliver its commitment to withdraw the Netherlands from the EU, the Freedom Party would: 1) need to form a government that would agree to put a referendum bill to parliament; and 2) gain parliamentary approval, neither of which appear likely possibilities

Dutch General Election: Opinion Polls




Dutch politics – a bluffer’s guide




Dutch election 2017 – the main protagonists




Dutch election 2017 – but it’s not just about the big two parties




Negotiation, negotiation, negotiation




A near-term referendum on EU membership is unlikely




Even thought Public opinion in favour of the EU has fallen…



* * *


Full presentation below (link)

Friday, March 3, 2017

It’s Coming, Watch Out For These 4 Catalysts

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at


Market dislocations occur when financial markets, operating under stressful conditions, experience large widespread asset mispricing.


Welcome to this week’s edition of “World Out Of Whack” where every Wednesday we take time out of our day to laugh, poke fun at and present to you absurdity in global financial markets in all its glorious insanity.


While we enjoy a good laugh, the truth is that the first step to protecting ourselves from losses is to protect ourselves from ignorance. Think of the “World Out Of Whack” as your double thick armour plated side impact protection system in a financial world littered with drunk drivers.


Selfishly we also know that the biggest (and often the fastest) returns come from asymmetric market moves. But, in order to identify these moves we must first identify where they live.


Occasionally we find opportunities where we can buy (or sell) assets for mere cents on the dollar – because, after all, we are capitalists.


Join our Insider membership and find out what we"re doing with our own money... targeting asymmetric investment opportunities


Capitalist Exploits Insider


In this week"s edition of the WOW: Catalysts


This week"s edition is short and bitter.


Here"s the timeline, folks:


  • Brexit, United Kingdom: 24 June 2016. Vote Yes. Wow, never saw that coming! Oh, wait!

  • USA: 8 November 2016. Vote Chairman Trump. Wow, never saw that coming! Oh, wait!

  • Auxit, Austria: 4 December 2016. Vote Freedom Party (FPÖ). Close, so close.

  • Itexit, Italy: 4 December 2016. Vote ‘NO’, support Lega Nord (LN). You sensing a trend here?

  • Nexit, Netherlands: 15 March 2017. Vote Party for Freedom (PVV)

This vote really sets the tone for Europe.


I can"t think of a time when Dutch elections mattered as much to the rest of Europe as they do today. The Dutch can be described as friendly people in a tiny relatively insignificant country who eat cheese, ride bicycles, and who, for some reason wear socks with sandals, but whose influence on and in broader Europe has been negligible.


And yet, as we sit just 14 sleeps out from Dutch elections the result is being anxiously awaited by traders across the world. Trigger fingers at the ready.


The firebrand Geert Wilders (PVV) - the Dutch version of Trump or Duterte - is set to ascend to the position of chief Dutch podium donut on the 15th of March.



Following closely on the heels of the Dutch are our snail eating friends, who I spoke about last week.


  • Frexit, France: 11 April 2017, Vote National Front (FN)


Here we currently have investors dumping French bonds faster than a girlfriend with herpes and buying the snot out of German bunds.


Moving right along we have...


  • Gerexit, Germany: before 27 August 2017. Vote Alternative for Deutschland (AfD).

Could it happen? Is the Pope Catholic?


And moving north to the land of ABBA, Ikea, and meatballs then we have...


  • Swexit: Sweden, 9 September 2018. A vote for Sweden Democrats (Sverigedemokraterna)? Could it happen?

Well, let"s consider this from the perspective of the Swedes themselves. Increasingly, their daily life includes the following:



A previously quaint and peaceful Swedish neighbourhood on Monday


And where so called "exclusion zones" now total 186 and where everyday citizens are finding that being politically correct is actually deadly.



On the plus side, at least Swedes now know that they"ve lost large parts of their country. They see it with their own eyes if they turn down the "wrong" street.



As explained in 7 Steps to the Easiest Short in Recent History:





“Forty years after the Swedish parliament unanimously decided to change the formerly homogenous Sweden into a multicultural country, violent crime has increased by 300 percent and rapes by 1,472 percent.


In an astounding number of cases, the Swedish courts have demonstrated sympathy for the rapists, and have acquitted suspects who have claimed that the girl wanted to have sex with six, seven or eight men.”



Perfect Storm


Folks, what we"re looking at is a clash of civilisations and a clash of cultures, all combined with the bankruptcy of social welfare systems, the repudiation of the ruling elite, and a repudiation of all that comes with it.


Like it or not, Europe is actually the periphery of a collapsing star. That star is the United States.


For now, the volatility and pain will be felt at the periphery which means that the core will remain stable. That "core" is currently being seen as Germany as we can see in the German bund yield curve. This "safety" currently being sought in bunds is likely fleeting and will quickly transfer to the real "core" of the collapsing star: the US. Brace for it.


To those who see the European glass as half full. I agree wholeheartedly.



And so here we sit: which way does it break?



As with any collapsing star, ultimately the star will collapse but not before the periphery collapses first.


The Question is...


Euro Poll


Cast your vote here and also see what others think


- Chris



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Thursday, February 23, 2017

Eight Reasons Why The Dutch Election Matters

Submitted by Saxo Bank"s Martin O"Rourke via TradingFloor.com,


  • The Netherlands" general election takes place on March 15

  • Geert Wilders far-right Party for Freedom expected to emerge first

  • Wilders path to premiership likely to be blocked by moderate coalition

  • Support for Wilders" anti-immigration, anti-EU stance fits populist narrative

  • Key lessons for Europe ahead of French and German elections

  • Brussels looking for consolidation after Brexit and Italian referendum rockets

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Now what is it about that Wilders fellow that seems so familiar?


If we needed any reminders that 2016 was the year when the anti-establishment phenomena broke through the glass ceiling, then this week"s Brexit-bill debate among the arch-establishment House of Lords institution was it.


The irony of the non-elected house discussing the bill that will eventually pave the way for the trigger of Article 50 before March 31 will not have been lost on many. It was, after all, the protest element of the Brexit vote that saw the UK electorate deliberately snub what their elites dictated they must do and establish the barricades between the establishment and the disaffected.


And that unleashed genie has gone on to cause havoc ever since. The victory of Donald Trump in the US and the rejection of Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi"s constitutional reform referendum in December struck a powerful blow at the heart of the establishment foundations.


Yet, the traffic has not all been one way. Austrian voters rejected the far-right Freedom Party leader Heinz-Christian Strache in December in presidential elections, and Marine Le Pen"s efforts to become the next president of France still look likely to be stymied at the second round in May despite a collapse in support for scandal-hit rival Francois Fillon briefly making her the race favourite.


The stage looks set, then. If 2016 was the year of the breakthrough, 2017 could see the status-quo fightback, with Europe likely to form the battleground ahead of pivotal elections. And, while next month"s general election in The Netherlands may not be the biggest showdown of the year, the outcome could set the tone for 2017.


The far-right PVV party, platformed on an anti-immigration, anti-European Union ticket, looks likely to emerge as the biggest party after March 15, but controversial leader Geert Wilders is almost certain to be snubbed when it comes to either the prime minister role or a top ministerial role. Nevertheless, a moderate coalition made up of numerous parties may find itself somewhat hobbled depending on the actual outcome.


We give eight reasons why the Dutch elections matter.


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Dreamy Amsterdam could be facing a nightmare.


1. Setting the template (version 2.0)


If Brexit set the template for the anti-establishment mantra in 2016, the subsequent victories of Trump and the populist anti-EU movement in Italy have subtly altered the blueprint. The outcome of this election could see the template take yet another twist with French and German elections to follow.


Like a military campaign, the domino effect of Brexit through to Italy six months later was next to impossible to stem. But with a new year and a new start, there is a different mood.


While a poll of UK voters in December said 47% would still vote leave, 45% said they would go for remain and 8% were undecided. That"s a shift from the 52/48 divide of the June 23 vote and came at a time when the UK consumer was spending and the economy looked robust.


A slump in retail sales for January out of the UK may have shifted that sentiment further after a 0.3% fall dramatically undercut expectations for a 0.9% rise. Add that to a revision of the December slump revised to 2.1% and it is beginning to look like the post-Brexit party and big-ticket item splurge encouraged by the likes of Black Friday could be over.





"There is the feeling that the public brought forward a lot of spending, especially on big ticket items, in response to the weakening in sterling," said Saxo Bank"s forex chief John J Hardy on the February 17 From the Floor. "I think we need to keep an eye on sterling crosses for reaction."



With housing transactions also predicted to fall 11% in 2017, according to research conducted by The Times, this could be a trying period for sterling and UK confidence.


GBPUSD plunged to below 1.24 after the retail data release for January


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Source: SaxoTraderGO


Some 15 weeks have also elapsed since Trump"s victory. With the president embarking on a campaign-style approach since his inauguration on January 20, that has led to a standoff with the mass media, a battle with his own judiciary, some embarrassing climb downs in foreign policy and disarray within his own hand-picked team.


The Dutch then have had some nine months to take on board the anti-establishment wave and what it potentially means. That includes the fallout.


How will they react? A reversion to the safety of the centre is a possibility. A lurch even further to the right can also not be ruled out. We"ll know in less than one month.


2. Anti-immigration reinforced


However Wilders" party fares next month, the anti-immigration platform is well established in Europe and looks likely to be reinforced. The UK turned its back on an agreement to take up to 3,000 child refugees fleeing war earlier this month and, though it has faced a backlash, is sticking to its guns.


The UK government"s strategy is twofold. It wants to clip the wings of Ukip (more of that later) and make inroads into the working-class defection from Labour that has alighted on the immigration issue as a rallying cause.


German chancellor Angela Merkel has also bowed to the inevitable and earlier this month set out tough new plans to repratriate asylum seekers designed to speed up the exit of those who have not earned asylum. A new Centre for the Support of Returns to be opened in Berlin is at the heart of the plan and marks a considerable contrast to the open-border policy that defined Germany"s immigration stance in 2015.


With Beppe Grillo"s Five Star Movement party in Italy firmly established on the back of the referendum result ten weeks ago and with the likes of Hungarian premier Viktor Orban threatening to round up asylum seekers and detain them in shipping container camps, there is a dehumanising aspect to the right-wing rhetoric that is frightening.


Wilders incendiary "Moroccan scum" comments on February 19 indicate the latitude that the far right has been granted by a lazy and complacent centre. It"s going to get worse.


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However you spin it, there is a reason why thousands of refugees have fled to Europe and are willing to put up with degrading conditions.


3. Le Pen"s moment


Just as Trump was able to jump on the Brexit bandwagon last autumn when his campaign looked like it might be hitting the buffers, Front National leader Marine Le Pen will have her fingers crossed for a strong showing from Wilders party and a potential escalation of tensions on the streets of Amsterdam and Rotterdam.


Le Pen"s chances of victory in May are not great but getting through to the final round on May 7 after the initial vote on April 23 would be success in itself and demonstrate that the far-right group is truly established as a mainstream party.


To put that in context, the party has spent almost its entire political life since its formation in 1972 on the fringes of the political spectrum. Founder Jean-Marie Le Pen may have got into a runoff off for the presidency in 2002 but it is only since his daughter became leader in 2011 that the party has really made its breakthrough.


It would be tempting to say that this is due to the new leader softening the party"s stance to become more acceptable, but the reality is a corrupt and decrepit political establishment has made it easy for Le Pen to harvest voters disaffected with the ruling elites. The atrocities in Paris in November 2015 and Nice in July 2016 have bolstered her bandwagon and reportedly made her party the most popular among 18-34 year olds.


The long game remains her strategy. Brick by brick, she"s demolishing the establishment wall.


4. The Merkel paradox


Of all the establishment figures under threat this year, none matter more than the German chancellor. She is the symbol of European solidity, an immigrant champion, a veteran of the international stage and she has demonstrated time and time again that she is able to go toe to toe with some of the most formidable opponents you could wish to encounter, including the likes of Russian leader Vladimir Putin.


But, unlike much of the rest of Europe, Germans rather like the current status quo and even the far-right Alternative for Germany Party has seen support slip from around 15% in the summer of 2016 to less than 10%.


The reason for that is not Merkel but rather the rise of a rival within her own coalition, the social democrats" Martin Schulz. Schulz, like Merkel, is a pro-European Union, anti-protectionist who most definitely hails from the left of the spectrum.


The "junior" party in Merkel"s Christian Democratic Union coalition moved ahead in some polls this weekend ahead of the September election. It may be that Merkel"s sudden shift in position on immigration is less to do with the far right and more to do with delineating her platform from that of Schultz.


Merkel may be a politician of principle. She"s also not above opportunism.


And with Schultz breathing down her neck, it is already beginning to look like the greater public-speaking skills of the latter could land him the biggest prize of all come September. In that light, a better-than-expected showing for Wilders" party at next month"s election might tip the fine margins in Merkel"s favour, although it is clearly a double-edged sword and a gamble to change her stance.


Merkel won"t say it of course. But you can bet some of her strategists are thinking it.


5. The French/German bonds spread barometer


The spread in yields between French and German 10-year bonds has become a useful indicator of political risk in Europe.


It ran as high as 72 basis points when the Francois Fillion got himself into a terrible mess over nepotism earlier this month as it briefly threatened to propel Le Pen into the lead. That subsequently came back to the 65 mark after the immediate outcry receded but has once again jumped to 78 basis points on February 22.


This could spread yet further depending on Wilders" showing on March 15 and demonstrates that not only is Germany decoupling from the peripheral economies like Portugal, Italy and Spain but even from a Eurozone-core economy like France, as the latter"s fundamental structural problems combine with political tensions to deepen the uncertainty over its future direction.


French/German 10-year yield spread out to 78 basis points


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Source: Bloomberg


6. The far-right splinter


The fate of Ukip should be instructive for all the far-right groups (or indeed any of the extremist movements in vogue) that are currently enjoying their moment in the sun on a platform of anti-immigration.


On the crest of a wave on June 24, Ukip"s progress since has been akin to someone wading through quicksand as the loss of a charismatic leader in the form of Nigel Farage has seen a catalogue of disasters beset the anti-EU party.


The 18-day reign of Diane James was an unmitigated disaster but replacement Paul Nutall has fared little better and has become embroiled in a false claims controversy relating to the Hillsborough disaster of 1989 when 96 football fans died that has seriously undermined his credibility.


Ukip does not yet look like a spent force but with Farage chasing the "dream" in the US, its direction and sense of purpose has ironically been undermined by successfully seeing through the single-issue strategy that gave the party its raison d"etre. With Brexit due to be triggered next month, it"s become a little bit of a rebel without a cause.


The mainstream — read May"s ruling Conservative party — has also stepped into the breach to effectively dilute the Ukip message by taking over some of their policies and pushing the hard Brexit stance that defined Ukip. It"s a mainstream fight back through latching on to policies (a strategy which Boris Johnson unsuccessfully tried to follow through last summer) that could help re-establish the status quo, albeit with a significant lurch to the right.


In the meantime, a key by-election on February 23 in the UK in the Brexit-supporting constituency of Stoke-on-Trent is a key test for Ukip. Nuttall"s party is favourite to take the formerly safe Labour Party seat (the problems that have beset the Labour Party also owe much to the Brexit vote and a lack of direction under leader Jeremy Corbyn) but a Conservative victory would be a remarkable result in the circumstances as a signal of the status-quo rebirth. It could happen.


The lesson for Wilders, Italy"s Five-Star Movement and Spain"s left-wing anti-establishment Podemos are clear. A single cause can most definitely unite disparate elements. But, the achievement of goals or an inability to break important electoral thresholds will unmask tensions. And, as Ukip is discovering, that"s a recipe for disaster.


k


Perhaps he knew it was a good time to look for something else.


7. The euro to come under pressure


Whatever the outcome of the Dutch election, the euro is likely to come into pressure as volatility stalks the continent in 2017.


The potential crisis in Greece once again, the upcoming French and German elections, the triggering of article 50 next month and the unnerving and unwavering hostility from the Trump administration to all things EU, means that EURUSD in particular is likely to feel the heat.


Trump may be pursuing a weaker dollar policy, but he might not get his wish granted in relation to the euro for some time. EURUSD has faced down the parity challenge on a couple of occasions already in the last few months but with the pair once again below 1.05 this morning, the debate looks set for some invigoration.


EURUSD breached 1.05 Wednesday morning


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Source: SaxoTraderGO EURUSD was at 1.0500 exactly at 1037 GMT, February 22.


8. The Trump reaction


The Trump reaction is incendiary enough even when it turns out to be over something that is patently not true such as his ill-researched comment about Sweden at the weekend regarding a security-related terrorist incident that never happened.


It"s not surprising that someone with Trump"s ego then chose to go on the warpath with Stockholm instead of coming clean. Expect him likewise then to react to the Dutch election, especially if it"s another significant blow to the status quo. He is unlikely to let facts get in the way of his agenda either.


If nothing else, Trump will seek endorsement for his selective immigration ban against seven mainly Muslim countries and the opportunity to twist the debate towards the border with Mexico which remains the most controversial pillar of his foreign policy (despite considerable competition).


The oxygen of publicity. Trump can"t resist it — markets will be moved.


k


That"s the size of the immigration problem in Sweden... no France...i meant Europe. Obviously.