Where European Populism Will Be Strongest In 2018

While the establishment may breathe a sigh of relief looking back at political developments and events in Europe - which was spared some of the supposedly "worst-case scenarios" including a Marine le Pen presidency, a Merkel loss and a Geert Wilders victory - in 2017, any victory laps will have to be indefinitely postponed because as Goldman writes in its "Top of Mind" peek at 2018, Europe"s nationalist and populist tide was just resting, and as Pascal Lamy, the former Chief of Staff to the President of the European Commission admitted earlier this year, "Euroskeptic politicians are largely following the pulse of domestic sentiment. The fact is that the public is less enthusiastic about Europe than it once was."

Echoing the sentiment by the europhile, Goldman"s Allison Nathan writes that while the Euro area’s most immediate political risks—i.e., populist or euroskeptic parties winning key elections this year— did not materialize, these movements have continued to gain traction.

• In the Dutch elections in March, the far-right Party for Freedom performed worse than polls had once predicted, but still increased its share of the vote relative to the 2012 elections. It remains the second-largest party in parliament.


• In France, concerns about the prospect of Marine Le Pen winning the presidency gave way to optimism over Emmanuel Macron’s reform agenda; nonetheless, Le Pen posted the best-ever showing for her party in a presidential race.


• In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU-CSU retained the largest number of seats in the Bundestag, but the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) entered it for the first time with 13% of the vote.


• And elsewhere in Europe, populist parties on various parts of the political spectrum performed well enough to participate in government coalitions; indeed, an anti-establishment candidate in the Czech Republic recently became prime minister

Some other observations and lessons from recent European events in the twilight days of 2017:

• The transition from campaigning to governing has proved difficult. Europe’s increasingly fragmented political landscape has made coalition-building challenging. In the Netherlands, it took over 200 days to form a government with only a single-seat majority. Similarly, German coalition talks with the Green party and the Liberal (FDP) party collapsed in November. But, after having planned to move into the opposition, the SPD—Merkel’s former coalition partner—decided at its congress last week to open talks with the CDU-CSU. Talks were set to begin this week.


• Other sources of uncertainty remain unresolved. Spain continues to grapple with the standoff between Madrid and Catalonia; regional elections in Catalonia on December 21 will influence the trajectory of the situation. Meanwhile, the UK and EU-27 seem likely to agree to move past the first phase of the Brexit talks (covering separation issues). But in a setback for UK Prime Minister Theresa May, UK lawmakers recently voted for an amendment to the Brexit bill that will guarantee Parliament a vote on the final deal agreed with the EU.


• The decline in political risk bolstered European assets, though fundamentals likely played a decisive role. The market-friendly outcome of the French elections dovetailed with a pick-up in European growth, supporting European equity markets. US inflows into European equities rose significantly but have since stabilized with the acceleration in growth and the decline in the risk premium likely behind us. Receding political risks also contributed to a stronger euro, which is up 12.5% against the dollar this year. Given the currency move, the SXXP is up roughly 7.5% in local terms and 20.6% in USD terms year-to-date.

Next, here"s what Goldman expects and will look for in 2018 and beyond:

• A continuation of the populist pull. The socioeconomic and cultural factors driving public opinion are unlikely to dissipate. Indeed, they may come into greater focus if growth moderates on a sequential basis starting in mid-2018.


• Constraints to further fiscal integration. Opposition to fiscal transfers within the Euro area makes incremental revisions to existing EU programs more likely than transformational change. Key to watch will be Macron’s credibility as a champion of integration, which will hinge on his ability to push through reforms in the face of political and economic constraints.


• Risks around Italian elections set to take place in March. Polls show the largest populist party, the 5 Star Movement (M5S), leading with roughly 27% of the vote. However, the new electoral law and M5S’s unwillingness to join a coalition suggest a centrist coalition is most likely. Such a government, while pro-EU/euro, would likely struggle to implement reforms.


• An eventual resolution of political issues in Germany and Spain. We believe Germany’s major parties will work to avoid new elections, given limited public appetite for a new vote and the risk of AfD gaining more seats in parliament. In Spain, economic and policy uncertainty could persist, but in our view, it is not likely to have lasting or systemic implications. Eventually, we expect a compromise that grants Catalonia greater autonomy within Spain.


• A bumpy road to Brexit. Expect the UK and EU to eventually agree to a two-year “status quo” transition plan.

And finally, here is a map showing where the forces of populism are expected to remain strong - and grow - across the continent.

Why Germans Voted For The Far-Right 'AfD'

The main headline from the German election yesterday is not Angela Merkel getting a fourth term in charge, but rather her party"s weakened position - caused chiefly by a surge in support for the right wing nationalist party "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD).

The AfD is a controversial party - one which not only ran on a program of anti-immigration and anti-Muslim policies, but one which is at least in part represented by people who have expressed racist and xenophobic views.

Nevertheless, provisional results indicate that the party has received 12.6 percent of the total vote, making it the third strongest in the country.

Why then did this happen? As Statista"s Martin Armstrong shows in the infographic below, AfD voters were primarily motivated by fears of terrorism, fears of crime and dissatisfaction with the influx of asylum seekers into Germany since the 2015 crisis.

You will find more statistics at Statista

Perhaps key to understanding the lurch to the right is the indication that the majority of AfD voters say they made their decision not based on belief in the party, but rather as a reaction to their disappointment in the other parties.

Why The German Elections Matter, And Not Just For Germany

In Germany, unlike in recent French and Dutch elections, there is little risk that the government will include nationalist or Euroskeptic forces. The AfD likely will win a handful of seats in the Bundestag, but other parties for the most part will refuse to cooperate with it. Meanwhile, The Left will also struggle to find partners, though it could possibly become a member of a broad center-left alliance. But while the German election doesn"t pose the same threat to the stability of the eurozone as did the French or Dutch elections, the next German government"s composition will play an important role in determining the future of the European Union.

Over the past decade, a combination of economic crises and strong nationalist sentiments made institutional reform in the European Union impossible. Now that most member states are growing again, and as the 2017 electoral season is reaching its end, the political environment for reform has become more favorable. Furthermore, last year"s Brexit referendum convinced most EU members and institutions that reforms are necessary to revitalize the bloc after years of shocks.

As the biggest economy in Europe, Germany will play a significant role in EU reform negotiations. Thus, the ideological composition of its government will be a crucial piece of the reform puzzle. In recent weeks, France, Italy and Spain each have made reform proposals, including plans to increase blocwide investment and introduce risk-sharing measures in the eurozone. Italy and Spain have even proposed issuing debt that is jointly backed by all the members of the eurozone. Meanwhile, France said that it will hold off on additional proposals for the eurozone until after the German election, so that Paris and Berlin can discuss the plans together.

Whoever has control in Germany"s parliament will influence the negotiations and eventual compromises made between the northern and southern blocs of the eurozone. If the election results in a center-right coalition led by the CDU, the government would probably take a skeptical view of plans presented by Southern Europe. A center-left coalition led by the SDP, meanwhile, would be more open to them. But regardless of who is in charge, Germany and other Northern European countries will be reluctant to share risk with their Southern European counterparts. Even though Berlin is not entirely opposed to Southern Europe"s proposals, it will almost certainly request tighter control of fiscal policies in the eurozone — a concession that Southern European countries will resist.

The makeup of the next coalition in Berlin will also influence debates on a variety of other EU issues. For example, Germany falls well short of NATO"s goal that its members spend at least 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, and the CDU is more willing to increase military spending than the SPD. When it comes to Brexit, most German parties align on a few things: they are in favor of reaching a deal with the United Kingdom, and they agree that the bloc"s future relationship with London should include fewer benefits than EU membership would have granted. However, London would prefer a CDU-led government to one led by the SPD, given Schulz"s background as former EU Parliament president and his strong defense of the bloc and its institutions.

And it"s not just the two big parties that will affect continental affairs. Depending on the Cabinet positions they are given, junior coalition partners could also shape some of Berlin"s decisions. The FDP, for example, would probably resist the kinds of protectionist moves that France is proposing, while The Left would push for strong government spending and higher taxes for corporations. These parties" abilities to shape policy will of course be limited, but they should not be completely disregarded.

Germany Tackles a Challenging Future

Beyond the larger concerns of the European Union, Germany is also facing a number of long-term domestic challenges. And while discussion of those issues has been largely absent in the electoral campaign so far, the country will eventually to have reckon with them.

The German economy has grown at a decent pace in recent years, and unemployment is at record lows. However, as a member of the eurozone, Germany could still be harmed by developments in other countries. For example, the bailout program that helped Greece stabilize its economy is set to expire in mid-2018, and Athens likely will request help to reduce the burden of its sovereign debt. This idea is controversial in Germany, and the FDP has even suggested that Greece leave the eurozone in exchange for debt relief. The Italian general election in early 2018 offers further challenges. There is a real chance that Italian votes will put a euroskeptic government in power, which would create a major roadblock to eurozone reforms.

Germany"s stability could take also hits for reasons more within its control, as the country"s export-driven economy faces pressure from its main trade partners. Southern European countries want Berlin to increase domestic spending to boost imports, and the United States has repeatedly criticized Germany"s massive trade surplus. A more protectionist stance by the United States, Germany"s main trade partner outside the eurozone, could damage German exports. Moreover, Germany"s flagship industry — its automotive sector — may need to readapt its business model as it faces competition from new technologies and foreign vehicle manufacturers as well as the aftermath of the "dieselgate" emissions test-rigging scandal.

AfD In 3rd Place In German Election Polls: Unhappy Political Marriages Loom

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

German federal elections are Sunday, September 24. The most likely outcome of the election is another “Grand Coalition” but it will be a much-weakened coalition.  And If that coalition forms again, the rightwing AfD party is poised to become the largest opposition party.

Rightwing Turning Point

The Wall Street Journal reports Nationalist AfD Party Moves Into Third Place in German Election Polls

A last-minute surge in the polls has put a far-right party that wants to dial down German remembrance of the Holocaust within striking distance of becoming the country’s biggest opposition force.

The four-year-old Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has moved into third place and double digits in recent polls. If those numbers hold up until the Sept. 24 election and German Chancellor Angela Merkel repeats her current governing coalition with the center-left Social Democrats, the AfD would become the biggest opposition party in parliament.

No matter how exactly the results shake out, Sunday’s election seems assured to represent a turning point in postwar German history. Ms. Merkel’s center-right Christian Democrats are set to finish first, and she is expected to remain chancellor. But the AfD, polls show, is very likely to become the first far-right party in more than half a century to win seats in parliament.

“If the AfD in fact gets into the Bundestag, Nazis will be speaking in the Reichstag [building] for the first time in more than 70 years,” Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel recently told German magazine, Der Spiegel.

Political scientists say while the AfD isn’t a neo-Nazi party, it includes a right-wing-radical wing that appears to be strengthening. And without question, the anti-immigrant party breaks taboos in a country that has resisted right-wing populism for decades in the shadow of the Nazi era.

In parliament, AfD lawmakers would receive state financing to hire new staff and to set up offices in their districts, increasing the party’s nationwide reach. They would hold key seats on legislative committees, make nationally televised speeches, and be able to send official inquiries to the government, which ministries are required to answer.

Polls suggest the AfD draws voters from across the political spectrum who are unhappy with mainstream politics, particularly on immigration. A strong showing by the AfD could complicate things for Ms. Merkel by preventing her from being able to form a governing coalition with just one of two smaller parties, the pro-business Free Democrats or the environmentalist Greens. Instead, she may well need to form an unwieldy three-way coalition including them both—despite their ideological differences—and her conservative bloc. Repeating her current “grand coalition” with the Social Democrats would require her to overcome misgivings in both parties.

Eurointelligence View

For many international observers Germany is the exception: In times of Donald Trump, Brexit and Emmanuel Macron, Germans seem to live on another continent of social peace and political harmony. There is nothing of the desire for renewal witnessed during the French elections, or the desire to distinguish themselves shown by the Brexit vote. There is no major populist insurgency. Controversial subjects of our times like terrorism, refugees, immigration, military engagement, or nationalism, are avoided, observes Jean-Dominique Giuliani, president of the Robert Schuman Foundation.

But this peace is superficial, notes Philippe Rocard in Le Monde. There are about 20-30% frustrated voters in Germany, angry about Angela Merkel and her motto “Wir schaffen das” (we can make it) in immigration policy, or her handouts to bailout countries during the eurozone crisis. The three parties that capture the rising protest are the AFD, Die Linke and even the FDP with its radicalised discourse against Greece.

The rise of the AfD, which looks like it could become the third strongest party only four years after its foundation, would be a turning point in postwar German history, notes the WSJ. Never since the 1950s has a far-right party cleared the 5% hurdle. According to the recent polls, the AfD could get as many as 89 out of 703 seats. With its xenophobic and nationalistic rhetoric, the party breaks taboos in a country that has resisted right-wing populism for decades. To be fair, these numbers are still small compared to Austria where the Freedom party is polling 25%, or France where Marine Le Pen received 34% in the presidential run-off. But for Germany it is a major shift.

Unhappy Marriages

CDU (36) + FDP (22) would have a total percentage of about 58%. But many in SPD would prefer the SPD to be in opposition. Should that develop, SPD would be the largest opposition party.

If SDP chooses opposition, Merkel could form a majority government via an alliance of CDU (36), the Greens (7), and FDP (9). Currently, that alliance would have a bare majority with 52% of the vote.

Regardless of what happens, Merkel will be in a much-weakened position compared to now.

And other than a miracle CDU/FDP finish that achieves more than 50%, it may take quite some time after the election for the next government to form.

Germans Concerned After 270,000 Syrian Refugees Granted Permission To Bring Family Members

With worries about mass migration having largely faded from Germany"s consciousness after a record surge in 2015, and an angry popular reaction, prompted Angela Merkel to curb the inflow of refugees, there is renewed concern in Germany following a report that up to 270,000 Syrians in Germany have the right to bring in their family members, a "revelation" that could refuel the debate about migration less than six months before a national election. Germany"s Bild cited a government paper showing that a total of 431,376 Syrians applied for asylum in Germany in 2015 and 2016 and said that of those 267,500 are allowed to bring their families to Germany.

As Reuters observes, Germany blessing such a material migration could play into the hands of the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has lost support in recent months as the refugee issue has receded from the headlines ahead of a Sept. 24 election.  Sure enough, senior AfD member Alexander Gauland condemned the figures, saying it was "absolute madness" to allow so many people to bring their families to Germany: "Billions and billions of tax money are being swallowed and the social state is being steered toward breakdown while our eyes are wide open."

In 2016 Germany suspended family re-unifications for two years for migrants who get "subsidiary protection" - granted to people who are not considered as being persecuted individually but in whose home country there is war, torture or other inhumane treatment.

According to Reuters, Syrians are the biggest group of asylum applicants in Germany. They are increasingly being granted subsidiary protection rather than refugee status and that means they are only granted the right of residence for a year, although this can be extended. But Chancellor Angela Merkel"s Christian Democrats (CDU), their Bavarian sister party - the Christian Social Union (CSU) - and the Social Democrats (SPD), their junior coalition partner, decided last week to make exceptions for people with subsidiary protection status in hardship cases.

More than a million migrants flocked to Germany in 2015 and 2016 but arrivals have dropped significantly.

The AfD, which has made immigration one of its key rallying points, is currently on between 7 and 11 percent in opinion polls, above the 5 percent threshold to enter parliament. CSU leader Horst Seehofer told German magazine Stern tackling the AfD was a main aim.

"If we govern the country sensibly and don"t attack each other personally in the election campaign, we can push the AfD under 5 percent," Seehofer said. However, while his party is behind Merkel in the election campaign he said it was sticking to its demand for a cap on the number of migrants coming here - a proposal which the chancellor has rejected.

In 2016, some 280,000 migrants arrived in Germany, a sharp drop compared with 890,000 the previous year. Bild said while there were no numbers for 2017 yet, the federal police had already caught more than 20,000 illegal migrants on the borders in the first three months of this year.

Why Is Trump Beheading The Statue Of Liberty: Spiegel Editor Explains

Over the weekend we pointed out how the German media perceived the new US President with Der Speigel"s highly controversial cover depicting President Trump beheading the Statue of Liberty, calling on Germany “to build an alliance” against the US leader. Not exactly subtle...

Germany’s Die Welt daily sharply criticized the cover, saying that it “damages” and “devalues journalism.” It also stressed that those who decided to depict Trump in such a way, comparing him to Islamist terrorists, had “lost all their moral guidelines.” As RT reports, the daily also accused Der Spiegel of attempts to gain “publicity at any cost” and said that the cover was an “irresponsible exaggeration” that could lead only to the loss of credibility of the German media.

In his defense of the controversial cover, Klaus Brinkbaumer, Der Spiegel editor-in-chief, told Reuters that the media outlet is actually "defending democracy" in "serious times," and "does not want to provoke anybody."

“We want to show what this is about, it"s about democracy, it"s about freedom, it"s about freedom of the press, freedom of justice and all that is seriously endangered,” he said, referring to the cover published on Saturday’s magazine.

...

“On our cover the American president beheads the symbol which has welcomed migrants and refugees to the United States since 1886, and with democracy and freedom,” Brinkbaumer told the German news agency DPA, implying that the cover was a response to Trump’s executive order temporarily banning travelers and immigrants from seven predominantly Muslim countries, which was dubbed ‘the Muslim ban.’

Der Spiegel is one of Europe’s largest weekly magazines, and the cover provoked a heated discussion on social media both in Germany and abroad, and drew criticism from other German media outlets and some politicians.

Many media outlets stressed that Der Spiegel’s cover could underpin Trump supporters’ belief that the media is biased against him and “belong to the establishment, which he is allegedly up against.”

“The Spiegel cover is just what Trump needs – a distorted image of him which he can use to further his own distorted image of the press,” Bild said.

Meanwhile, populist anti-immigrant party Alternative for Germany (AfD) mocked Der Spiegel’s cover by presenting its own version of the cartoon, featuring the figure of Chancellor Angela Merkel holding a burning German constitution in one hand and a bloodstained knife with a Muslim crescent symbol on it in the other.

The picture also features Merkel’s well-known slogan, “We can make it!”

Neues @DerSPIEGEL Cover. pic.twitter.com/V3MeLi8Oh6

— AfD Berlin (@AfDBerlin) February 5, 2017

How many special snowflakes in Germany were triggered by that?

Angela Merkel Faces Challenge For Chancellorship

Submitted by Soren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

• The policy positions of Schulz and Merkel on key issues are virtually identical: Both candidates are committed to strengthening the EU, maintaining open-door immigration policies, pursuing multiculturalism and quashing dissent from the so-called far right.


• Regardless of who wins, Germany is unlikely to undergo many course corrections during the next four years.


• Schulz has already called for tax increases on the wealthy and for fighting the AfD party. He has also threatened financial consequences for European countries that refuse to take in more migrants.


• "The chancellor"s office is worried." – Der Spiegel.

Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, has been chosen to challenge Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany"s general election on September 24.

The policy positions of Schulz and Merkel on key issues are virtually identical: Both candidates are committed to strengthening the European Union, maintaining open-door immigration policies, pursuing multiculturalism and quashing dissent from the so-called far right.

Time for a changing of the guard? Pictured: Then European Parliament President Martin Schulz meets with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Brussels, January 30, 2012. (Image source: European Parliament)

Polls show Merkel, who heads the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), slightly ahead of Schulz, the new leader of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). Regardless of who wins, Germany is unlikely to undergo many course corrections during the next four years.

Schulz, who became a Member of the European Parliament in 1994, and has spent most of his political career in Brussels, unofficially took over the reins of the SPD on January 29, 2017, after the unpopular Sigmar Gabriel said he was stepping down. The move will become official at a party congress on March 19. SPD leaders said that as an "outsider," Schulz has a better chance of unseating Merkel, who has been in office since November 2005, and is running for a fourth term.

The SPD has been the junior partner in a Merkel-run "grand coalition" (Große Koalition) government since December 2013. SPD leaders say that if the party wins at least 30% of the national vote, Schulz will become the next chancellor.

In an interview with Der Spiegel, Schulz, 61, said he was the best candidate to replace Merkel, who is 62. "I have worked with Angela Merkel longer than almost anyone outside her party," he said. "I have studied her, gotten to know her." Schulz has eight months to persuade Germans to vote for him.

The latest INSA poll shows the CDU (together with its Bavarian sister party, the CSU) with 32.5% of the vote, the SPD with 26%, and the anti-establishment party Alternative for Germany (AfD) in third place with 13%.

If the CDU/CSU or the SPD fail to win a majority, they may join forces to form another grand coalition. Either party may also seek to form a coalition government with other smaller parties, particularly the Greens, but all have ruled out entering into a coalition with the eurosceptic AfD.

The AfD, which is set to enter the Parliament (Bundestag) for the first time, is uniquely placed to attract voters who are angry about Merkel"s decision to allow into Germany more than one million mostly Muslim migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The party, which polled as high as 15.5% in December 2016, has struggled to gain more traction due to internal power struggles and accusations of anti-Semitism.

Schulz — a high school dropout whom The Economist magazine described as "pugnacious" and "impulsive" — is campaigning on a platform to unite an increasingly divided German polity. "Germany needs a new start and that cannot happen with the CDU," he said. "We have come to the end of what we can achieve with divided conservatives."

The SPD will not unveil its election platform until a party congress in May. But Schulz has already called for tax increases on the wealthy and for fighting the AfD. He has also threatened financial consequences for European countries that refuse to take in more migrants.

When a television presenter confronted Schulz about his lack of governing experience, he compared himself to Barack Obama: "I share the fate with Barack Obama. He also had no government experience when he became President of the United States."

If elected, Schulz, an ardent Europhile who is committed to European federalism, is sure to work to strengthen the European Union. "I know what"s going on in Europe," he said. "I know the strengths and also weaknesses of the European Union." He added:

"European politics is German domestic politics and German domestic politics has a powerful effect in Europe. Whoever wants to play those against each other is committing a sin against the future of our children and generations to come."

Schulz has argued that the EU must be preserved at any cost:

"We are at a historical juncture: A growing number of people are declaring what has been achieved over the past decades in Europe to be wrong. They want to return to the nation-state. Sometimes there is even a blood and soil rhetoric that for me is starkly reminiscent of the interwar years of the past century, whose demons we are still all too familiar with. We brought these demons under control through European structures, but if we destroy those structures, the demons will return. We cannot allow this to happen."

He has opposed the idea of holding national referendums on quitting the EU:

"Referendums have always posed a threat when it comes to EU policy, because EU policy is complicated. They"re an opportunity for those from all political camps who like to oversimplify things."

Schulz has also said that the British decision to leave the European Union would facilitate the creation of a European Army:

"In the fields of security and defense policy, although the EU loses a key member state, paradoxically such a separation could give the necessary impulse for a closer integration of the remaining member states."

Playing the anti-Americanism card, Schulz has expressed his disdain for U.S. President Donald J. Trump, calling him "an obviously irresponsible man sitting in a position that requires the utmost sense of responsibility." He added: "Trump is not just a problem for the EU, but for the whole world."

Schulz described Trump"s order to build a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico as "a taboo breach that is intolerable." He also criticized Trump"s temporary travel ban for citizens of seven countries deemed to be terrorist safe havens:

"I"m sure when European politicians travel to Washington they will explain to the U.S. government that international law and human rights also apply for Donald Trump."

Schulz has reserved his worst vitriol for the anti-immigration AfD, whose leaders he has described as "rat catchers" (Rattenfänger) who are "trying to profit from the plight of refugees." He has also called them "shameful and repulsive."

Merkel, who up until recently vowed to continue her open-door migration policy, has now promised to consider an annual cap on the number of migrants allowed into Germany. In a rare moment of contrition, she said: "If I could, I would turn back the time by many, many years. If I knew what change in policy people wanted, I would be ready to consider it and to talk about it."

In an interview with Welt am Sonntag, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble admitted that the Merkel government made mistakes with its open-door migration policy. "We have tried to improve what got away from us in 2015," he said. "We politicians are human; we also make mistakes. But one can at least learn from them."

Some in the German media are skeptical about Schulz. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung wrote:

"As a chancellor candidate, Schulz has announced an election campaign for social justice and the EU. He will not allow "bashing" of the EU. Can Schulz score points? Like any other German politician, he stands for "Brussels" as a cipher for a detached and bureaucratic European elite. The alienation between elites and large parts of the population is not only in America. In Germany as well, voters increasingly are turning away from established politics."

By contrast, Der Spiegel published a sensational cover story entitled, "Saint Martin" which portrayed Schulz as a supernatural figure — similar to its adulation of Barack Obama eight years ago. The magazine added: "The chancellor"s office is worried."