Did Erdogan Just Hand Rutte The Dutch Election?

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

It was a phenomenal rise. Geert Wilders, a complete nothing a decade ago, came out of the blue to make a challenge for the top spot in Dutch politics. In doing so he scared the willies out of the ruling elite across Europe.

In the dying minutes of the game, Wilders failed to clinch the required votes to ascend him to the throne.

What"s fascinating was how this all went down. As Jan and Marijke were gearing up to head to the polls all hell broke loose.

Some Background First

The last thing that Mark Rutte, the incumbent, needed in the dying minutes of the game was anything that could potentially add fuel to the anti-islamic populist fire. That would play directly into Wilders" hand. What kind of thing?

Oh, say something like a political rally held for a Middle Eastern European dictator politician campaigning... on Dutch soil. These campaigns have been going on for some time across Europe and have an odd habit of turning violent.

Foreign politics is increasingly embedded in Europe. With millions of Turkish immigrants now living in Europe, Erdogan can"t afford to ignore this electorate and so his political campaigns need to be brought onto European soil.

Europeans, for their part, have for years been quietly tucking their tails between their legs and saying to one another: "Oh, you know, we need to accept the differences of opinion - it"s the European way".

That was all working dandily until Fleur got stabbed on the train ride home by a nutter yelling at her for wearing a short skirt and upsetting Allah and Hans" daughter was raped at the local swimming pool by a group of immigrants who believe she was "asking for it" by wearing a bikini.

It all sounds good in theory but behind closed doors people like it as much as they like a good dose of venereal warts.

Jan and Marijke have been leaning towards Geert despite his looking suspiciously like a masculine incarnation of Barbie.

Why? In large part because they"re none to happy with what they see as the islamisation of their country.

Mark Rutte, the incumbent, favouring the politically correct approach of his European counterparts was fast losing ground to Wilders on these issues.

Violence at these political rallies has become fairly common and Rutte, no doubt fearing any such event would simply fuel the sentiment that had already driven Wilders into a contesting position, decided to ban Turkey"s foreign minister from holding a public rally in the country. And to make sure that this was implemented revoked his flight permit to even land.

Rutte was most likely expecting stern words through the usual diplomatic channels but most importantly nothing that would upset Jan and Marijke as they were preparing themselves for the big day at the voting booths.

And Then All Hell Broke Loose...

Instead of a quiet tiff between diplomats far from the media"s eye this immediately burst into the wide open.

Erdogan promptly called the Europeans Nazis which is pretty damn funny given the following:

Turks, perhaps a little confused as to which country they are actually guests in, became incensed that they couldn"t promote their chosen dictator in a foreign country and promptly lost the plot.

Riot police clash with demonstrators in the streets near the Turkish consulate in Rotterdam, Netherlands (Photo: Reuters)

Europeans, increasingly concerned that Europe might just start looking a bit like Turkey, are no doubt a bit confused as to why it is that political problems from "other" countries have to become their problems. Ah, but therein lies the beauty of a "union". One for all and all for one.

In any event, Rutte now had two choices:

1. Placate Erdogan and risk looking like a wimp to his electorate. The very thing that he so didn"t want was now happening and at a scale that was almost certainly far grander than any skirmish at a pro-Erdogan rally would have been. The idea of ensuring there was no violence by Muslims on Dutch soil just ahead of elections had now backfired spectacularly and so there wasn"t much chance to reverse course now.


2. Stand by the decision and understand that by doing so he was putting at risk all of Europe. I say this because Europe is beholden to Turkey who hold the key to the immigrant floodgates. Turkey can (as they"ve threatened) simply open the floodgates and not only would Europe be flooded with far more immigrants than they can cope with but the near certainty of Jihadist "Allahu Akbar" folks pouring into Europe via Turkey would be left wide open. Europe know this. It is why they"ve been negotiating with Turkey on this whole EU membership thing.

And this is where Rutte won the election - in the dying minutes of the game.

Jan and Marijke, concerned that Wilders might take the country a little too far "right", had been searching for a sign of strength, of resolve, and of firm beliefs. They don"t understand the complexity of Turkish negotiations mentioned above. They only care about what they see day to day on the streets. In Rutte now they saw what they were looking for. Rutte, for his part, stood firm.

In stark contrast to Merkel, who is making a habit of doing her best to mimic a deer in headlights, Rutte escalated the conflict firing back at Erdogan, squashing protests with riot police, and having the Minister of Families escorted out of the country.

As he did so we have to ask ourselves the question: how many of those undecided voters who were leaning right came back into the party fold?

Obviously we don"t know. And while the media is spinning this as a European rejection of populism, if we think through what took place it may just be that Erdogan just handed Rutte the Dutch elections - not because Dutchies voted for a rejection of nationalism and populism but actually as a firm vote FOR it.

What we do know, however, is that the European shift towards nationalism isn"t going away despite what the pretty dolly birds on mainstream media are currently yapping on about. This event (the Turkish event) will likely become the defining point of Rutte"s premiership, and unless he continues to follow through with a similar "tough" stance Wilders will simply continue to gather more followers.

The truth is that no matter what Brussels podium donuts or anyone else may want to believe we can"t expect this visible clash of both cultures and religions to don its stripy pyjamas, down its milk and cookies, and go peacefully into the night. It"s not going to happen. There is no middle ground here.

Despite European leaders" previous attempts to legitimise and ignore the onslaught this latest tiff between the Netherlands and Turkey is likely to act as a drawing of lines in the sand. For his part, Erdogan is pulling no punches.

"If Europe continues this way, no European in any part of the world can walk safely on the streets." - Turkish President Erdogan

Those are fighting words and the fact that they came just days before yet another terror attack on European soil - this time in London - will add, not detract from the shifting zeitgeist I"ve been discussing at length in these pages.

What Next?

In exactly a month"s time, our croissant eating friends go to the polls. The Dutch outcome, now fresh in the minds of all, may prove to be nothing at all like what I think is coming to France.

Right now perhaps as a result of the Dutch elections, journalists and market pundits alike have swung in favour of Macron over Le Pen. The futures market for its part doesn"t seem enthralled with either.

Grab your popcorn. This ought to be at least as much fun as Brexit was.

- Chris

“History is filled with the sound of silken slippers going downstairs and wooden shoes coming up.” ?Voltaire

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In Europe, Winners Are Losers & Left Is Right

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

The Dutch elections on Wednesday have provided a whole bunch of Orwellian narratives. PM Mark Rutte’s right wing VVD party, actually the ‘business’ -or should we say ‘rent-seekers’ in 2017- party, who lost some 20% of the seats they had obtained in the previous parliamentary election in November 2012, down from 41 to 33 seats, is declared the big winner. While Geert Wilders’ very right wing party, PVV, won 25% more seats -it went from 16 to 20- and is the big loser.

Moreover, Rutte’s coalition partner, labor PvdA, gave up 29 out of 38 seats to end up with just 9. That’s a loss of over 75%. Together, the coalition partners went from 79 seats in the 2012 election to 42 in 2017. That’s an almost 50% less. Not that it could prevent Rutte from proudly declaring: “We want to stick to the course we have – safe and stable and prosperous..” Makes you wonder who the ‘we’ are that he’s talking about.

That course he wants to stick to had a finance minister named Dijsselbloem, and his party just lost by over 75%. So he won’t be back. But perhaps the EU can pull another ‘Tusk’, and leave him in place in Brussels as chairman of the Eurogroup no matter what voters in his own country think of him. Still, declaring your intention to ‘stick to the course’ when your coalition has just been sawed in half, it’s quite something.

The only reasons Rutte’s VVD ended up being the biggest party all have to do with Wilders. The anxiety over the election all had to do with polls. Wilders is a one man party and a a one trick pony. If he would leave, his party would dissolve. And his sole ‘message’ is that Islam is bad and should vanish from first Holland and then Europe. He doesn’t really have any other political program points. Ok, there’s Brussels. Doesn’t like that either.

Perhaps that’s why he largely shunned the pre-election debates. Problem with that is, these things attract a lot of TV viewers, crucial free air-time. All in all, since he’s his own worst enemy in many respects, it’s not that much of a surprise that Wilders’ support collapsed, and that’s just if we were to take Dutch pollsters more serious than their counterparts in the US and UK.

Talking of which, according to Rutte, those are the countries where ‘the wrong kind of populism’ has won and delivered Trump and Brexit. And of course there are lots of people who agree with that. What either they, or Rutte himself, would label ‘the right kind of populism’ is unclear. Maybe Rutte himself is the right kind of populist?

The row with Turkey over the weekend must have helped Rutte quite a bit. Not only were his actions in the row met with approval by a large majority of the Dutch population, including just about all other party leaders, the Dutch also got to think about what WIlders would do in such a situation. And there can be no doubt that Rutte is seen as much more of a statesman than Wilders.

Not that the row is over. After Turkey announced yesterday it would return 40 Dutch cows (?!) , today Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said Europe’s politicians are “taking Europe toward an abyss”, and: “Soon religious wars will break out in Europe. That’s the way it’s going.” There can be no doubt that a shouting war like this with Wilders as one of the participants would take on a whole different shape, and a different choice of words.

What Rutte’s going to do next is form a new coalition, this time not with the left but with the center-right, and no-one will be able to tell the difference. If Dutch, and European, and global, politics have one main problem, it’s that. Left is right and right is left and winners are losers. If a guy like Dijsselbloem can squeeze Greek society dry in his capacity as Eurogroup head, while he runs as a leftist candidate in his own country, and loses hugely, anything goes.

All those who think they can see in the Dutch experience, a sign that Marine Le Pen’s chances in France’s presidential elections in April and May have dropped a lot, would appear to be delusional. Judging from reactions in the financial markets, many seem to be. But Le Pen is much less of a fringe figure than Wilders is, and she certainly wouldn’t shun a debate. It’s true that her Front National is a one-woman operation, bit she has a much clearer political program than Wilders does.

And she doesn’t have an opponent like Rutte, who’s become a formidable presence domestically, as anyone would be who can be PM for many years and not be put out by the curb. The man who should be Le Pen’s main adversary is not; Hollande is out by that curb and doesn’t even dare run again. His Socialist party has become a joke. The next strongest opponent should be François Fillon, but he’s all but gone now he’s been placed under formal investigation.

That leaves only Emmanual Macron, an independent without a party and without a program. In France, you can be elected president in such a situation, but your hand are tied in all sorts of ways, because you need parliament to vote for things.

..the nuances of the French political system put Macron in a spot of bother. The president derives their power from the support of a majority in the lower house of parliament, the National Assembly. Macron was a minister for the Socialist Party government but quit in 2016 to form his own political movement. Now he doesn’t even have a party, let alone a majority. Although the constitution of the French Fifth Republic, created by Charles De Gaulle in 1958, extended presidential powers, it did not enable the president to run the country.

There are only a few presidential powers that do not need the prime minister’s authorisation. The president can appoint a prime minister, dissolve the National Assembly, authorise a referendum and become a “temporary dictator” in exceptional circumstances imperilling the nation. They can also appoint three judges to the Constitutional Council and refer any law to this body. While all important tasks, this does not, by any stretch of the imagination, amount to running a country. The president can’t suggest laws, pass them through parliament and then implement them without the prime minister.

The role of a president is best defined as a “referee”. Presidential powers give the ability to oversee operations and act when the smooth running of institutions is impeded. So a president is able to step in if a grave situation arises or to unlock a standoff between the prime minister and parliament, such as by announcing a referendum on a disputed issue or by dismissing the National Assembly.

So, why does everyone see the president as the key figure? In a nutshell, it’s because the constitution has never been truly applied. There lies the devilish beauty of French politics. A country known since the 1789 revolution for its inability to foster strong majorities in parliament has succeeded, from 1962, in providing solid majorities.

Perhaps those who believe that what happened in Holland is also likely to happen in France are swayed by the notion that both are part of the EU. But they are very different countries and cultures, and different political systems. And Le Pen is no Wilders. She doesn’t say crazy things anymore, she’s cleansed the public image of her party by getting rid of her father, and she keeps any remaining extremists out of view.

There is still plenty suspicion in France about her, and about her party, but there are also a lot of people who agree with a lot of what she says. The perhaps most noteworthy statement she’s made recently is that she would step down if she loses the referendum about membership of the EU she intends to launch if elected president. That should keep Brussels on their toes. Marine means what she says. And a lot of French people may get to like her for that. In a political landscape in which the competition keeps shooting itself in the foot.

Another thing about Le Pen is that her political program contains quite a few bits and bolts that could be labeled leftist; a 35-hour work week, retirement at 60, lower energy prices. It’s just that she wants to reserve these things for the French. Foreigners, especially, Muslims, are not invited. And she is very much opposed to neo-liberalism and globalization:

They’ve made an ideology out of it. An economic globalism which rejects all limits, all regulation of globalization, and which consequently weakens the immune defences of the nation state, dispossessing it of its constituent elements: borders, national currency, the authority of its laws and management of the economy, thus enabling another globalism to be born and to grow: Islamist fundamentalism..

Le Pen’s popularity does not come from an overwhelming innate racism in France -though such a thing certainly exists-. It comes instead from the formidable failure that the country’s immigration policy has been for many decades. At the outskirts of major cities ghetto’s have been allowed to form in which those that come from former French colonies, especially in Africa, feel trapped with no way out. The French tend to feel superior to all other people, and the political system has let the situation slip completely out of hand.

Now France, and Europe is general, will have to deal with this mess. So far, the main European reaction is to turn Greece into a prison camp for a new wave of refugees and migrants. That can of course only make things worse. And it doesn’t solve any of the existing problems. Which makes the rise of Marine Le Pen inevitable.

And Wilders too; he’s the no. 2 party in Holland, because his party won 33% more seats than in 2012 to go from 15 to 20. That 33% gain, versus Rutte’s 20% loss, makes Wilders a loser in the eyes of many ‘relieved’ observers.

Winners are losers, and as is evident in Le Pen’s social policies for the French, in European coalition governments that contain Labor and right wing parties, and in the course of the Democratic party in the US, left is definitely the same as right.

Orwell always wins. Next problem: the actual left are not represented by anyone anymore.

Turkish Foreign Minister: "Religious Wars Will Start Soon In Europe"

Turkey"s arch-nemesis - well, one of many -  Dutch politician Geert Wilders may have just suffered a major disappointment in his recent political career after yesterday"s Netherlands general election, but that did not mean that the diplomatic scandal between Turkey and the Netherlands has been put on hiatus; on the contrary: Turkey"s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu warned that Europe is headed for “wars of religion” and claiming Dutch politicians are taking the continent “to a cliff.”

Speaking at a rally in Antalya on Thursday, Cavusoglu assessed the outcome of the Dutch elections which saw a failure for the anti-Muslim, anti-EU Geert Wilders garnering a majority of the votes, after a campaign rallying for the closure of mosques and banning of the Koran.

However, instead of celebrating the defeat of the anti-Islam politician, and his defeated by Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s People"s Party for Freedom and Democracy, Cavusoglu warned that Wilders’ beliefs are shared by others across the Netherlands.

"Many parties have received a similar share of votes. Seventeen percent, 20 percent, there are lots of parties like this, but they are all the same," the Foreign Minister said adding “there is no difference between the mindsets of Geert Wilders and social democrats in the Netherlands. They all have the same mindset...that mindset is taking Europe to the cliff. Soon wars of religion may and will start in Europe,” Cavusoglu said, quoted by Reuters.

The comments come amid a bitter feud between the Netherlands and Turkey. Ankara suspended high-level relations with the European country on Monday, after it banned ministers from addressing Turks at a rally in Rotterdam, where they were expected to advocate for a constitutional referendum in Turkey. Following the ban, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused the Netherlands of acting like "fascists" and “Nazi remnants.”

Erdogan also accused the Netherlands of state terrorism and having a “rotten” character earlier this week, claiming the Dutch were responsible for the 1995 Srebrenica massacre during the Bosnian War. “We know how rotten their character is from their massacre of 8,000 Bosnians there. Nobody should try to give us lessons on morality, especially not those who have blood on their hands,” he said.

"Hey Rutte, you may have won the election as first party, but you have lost a friend like Turkey," Erdogan told flag-waving crowds at a pro-referendum rally in the northwestern province of Sakarya.

He also slammed the European Union for a ruling allowing companies to ban staff from wearing Islamic headscarves under certain conditions. "Shame on the EU," Erdogan said. "Down with your European principles, values and justice ... They started a clash between the cross and the crescent, there is no other explanation."

Erdogan is lobbying for 5.5 million expatriate Turks to vote ‘yes’ in an upcoming referendum which would give him sweeping new powers to issue decrees, declare emergency rule, appoint ministers and state officials, and dissolve parliament.

Critics say the move would be a step backwards for democracy, removing the system of checks and balances. Although a majority Muslim country, Turkey is officially secular and headscarves were banned for decades in the civil service and universities. Erdogan and the Islamist-rooted AK Party he founded fought to overturn those bans, which they see as discriminatory, and to bring religion into public life.

Holland's Anti-EU 'Freedom Party' Boosted As Turkish Tensions Mount

With less than 48 hours until polling begins in the first major European election of the year, Bloomberg reports that snap polls show support for the anti-Islam, euroskeptic Freedom Party of populist Geert Wilders being re-energized after the last few days chaotic events surrounding Turkey.

Just as we warned over the weekend, in the near-term, however, the outstanding question is how will Saturday"s events impact Wednesday"s Dutch general election, and whether the diplomatic clash will boost votes for Geert Wilders. As Reuters notes, "the diplomatic row comes in the run-up to the coming week"s Dutch election in which the mainstream parties are under strong pressure from the far-right party of Geert Wilders."

And this morning, as Bloomberg notes, after politicians on all sides rounded on the Turkish government for dispatching ministers to the Netherlands for domestic political ends on the eve of the Dutch election, Erdogan said on Sunday that the Netherlands would “pay the price” after Rutte’s government denied entry to Turkey’s foreign minister and escorted a second Turkish minister to the Dutch border.

Prime Minister Mark Rutte told NRC on Monday morning, when asked if the chance to play the role of the “strong” prime minister would help him on Wednesday.

“I wasn’t waiting for this... This cost me hours and hours of campaign time. But it’s just my job, being prime minster comes first.”

But as Kees Aarts, professor of political institutions and behavior at the University of Groningen, explains,

While "the cabinet has shown political decisiveness...  when you add everything up, what happened will clearly help Wilders. He wasn’t very visible during the campaign and not very involved. But in the end it’s his main theme that’s at stake now."

A snap poll on the incident by Peil.nl found that 86 percent of more than 2,000 respondents said that Rutte had done a good job during the dispute. However, it also found that Freedom Party voters were fired up, with Wilders supporters saying for first time during the campaign they would “certainly” vote for his party, known by its Dutch acronym, PVV. That could lead to higher turnout among PVV supporters at the election on March 15, according to Peil.nl.

So, as The Express asks (and answers), what will happen if Wilders wins?

Mr Wilders" election would mark Europe’s first political earthquake of the year ahead of the important French and German elections later in 2017. The far-right politician pledges to ‘de-islamise’ the country by closing its borders, banning Islamic headscarves, closing mosques and banning the Koran. He has vowed to take the Netherlands out of the EU as well stopping public money going towards development aid, windmills, the arts, innovation and broadcasting.

But what will really happens if Mr Wilders triumphs in the election next month?

Although Mr Wilders is projected to get the most votes in the election, the PVV will not be able to form a Government on its own. Unlike Britain and the US, the Netherlands is always ruled by a coalition of political parties due to the fragmented nature of Dutch politics. Winning the most seats does not automatically make Mr Wilders Prime Minister because the top job goes to the leader with the most seats in the coalition.

But VVD Prime Minister Mark Rutte has already ruled out a coalition between VVD and the PVV if Mr Wilders wins the election.

"No, we wouldn’t do that,” Liberal Prime Minister Mark Rutte says at news conference in Rotterdam when asked if he’ll co-operate in government with Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party after Wednesday’s election.

Rutte on previous experience in govt with Wilders: “When the crisis was the deepest, he ran away”

Other Dutch parties are also unwilling to form a coalition with him, according to Rem Korteweg, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform (CER).

“The result of that is going to be a political mess after the election,” Mr Korteweg said, noting that there could be political stalemate.

If the PVV is excluded from the coalition, then it will be very large, unwieldy and at risk of falling apart and leading to fresh elections. Even if Mr Wilders is blocked from real political power in the Netherlands, his election would be devastating blow for Europe’s liberal order.

The far-right populist victory could boost the chances of Front National leader Marine Le Pen in the French elections this spring.

It would also be welcomed by Frauke Petry - the woman leading the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) into the German federal elections in September.

Turkey Vows "Harsh Retaliation" After Dutch PM Says "Not Apologizing, Are You Nuts"

The diplomatic scandal between Turkey and the Netherlands deteriorated overnight, when Prime Minister Binali Yildirim warned on Sunday that Turkey would retaliate in the "harshest ways" after Turkish ministers were barred from speaking in Rotterdam, leading to a major protest in front of the Turkish consulate in Rotterdam, while the Dutch embassy in Istanbul was closed off due to "safety concerns."

"This situation has been protested in the strongest manner by our side, and it has been conveyed to Dutch authorities that there will be retaliation in the harshest ways ... We will respond in kind to this unacceptable behavior," Yildirim said in a statement.

Turkey"s Prime Minister Binali Yildirim

At the same time, continuing his ongoing tirade in which he has compared virtually all of his political foes to Hitler or Nazis, president Tayyip Erdogan said "Nazism is still widespread in the West" after the Netherlands joined other European countries worried about political tensions inside Turkey spilling beyond its borders that have prevented Turkish politicians from holding rallies.

As reported on Saturday, the Dutch government first barred Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu from flying to Rotterdam and later stopped Family Minister Fatma Betul Sayan Kaya from entering the Turkish consulate in the port city, before escorting her out of the country to Germany.

Dutch police used dogs and water cannon early on Sunday to disperse hundreds of protesters waving Turkish flags outside the consulate in Rotterdam. Some threw bottles and stones and several demonstrators were beaten by police with batons, a Reuters witness said. Meanwhile, Dutch officers carried out charges on horseback.

Protesters also gathered outside the Dutch embassy in Ankara and consulate in Istanbul, throwing eggs and stones at the buildings.

The Dutch government, which is set to lose about half its seats in elections this week as the anti-Islam party of Geert Wilders makes strong gains, said the ministers" visits were undesirable and it would not cooperate in their political campaigning in the Netherlands.

Erdogan warned the Netherlands that "if you can sacrifice Turkish-Dutch relations for an election on Wednesday, you will pay the price," during an awards ceremony in Istanbul. "I thought Nazism was dead, but I was wrong. Nazism is still widespread in the West," he said. "The West has shown its true face." Speaking to reporters before a public appearance in the northeastern French city of Metz, Cavusoglu said Turkey would continue to act against the Netherlands until it apologizes.

Meanwhile, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said he would do everything to "de-escalate" the confrontation, which he described as the worst the Netherlands had experienced in years. But he said the idea of apologizing was "bizarre".

"This is a man who yesterday made us out for fascists and a country of Nazis. I’m going to de-escalate, but not by offering apologies. Are you nuts?" he told a morning talk show.

Supporting Rutte"s decision to ban the visits, the Dutch government said there was a risk of Turkish political divisions flowing over into its own Turkish minority, which has both pro- and anti-Erdogan camps. It cited public order and security worries in withdrawing landing rights for Cavusoglu"s flight.

Turkey fired back saying the Dutch ambassador to Ankara should not return from leave "for some time". Erdogan is looking to the large number of Turks living in Europe, especially in Germany and the Netherlands, to help secure victory next month in a referendum that would give the presidency sweeping new powers.

Concerns about Turkey"s erratic diplomacy spread to Germany where Chancellor Angela Merkel said she will do all she can to prevent Turkey"s domestic tensions spreading onto German territory. Austria and Switzerland have also canceled Turkish rallies due to the escalating dispute. A senior member of her conservative bloc in parliament, Hans Michelbach, demanded on Sunday that the EU stop aid to Turkey and ruled out any hopes that it would join the EU. "There is no prospect of entry in the long run. Turkey is getting further and further away from the European Union. Support programs (that it gets as an EU candidate) are therefore a waste of taxpayers" money," he said in a statement.

In what may have been the harshest recent diplomatic takedown of Turkey, Michelbach said that "it is time that the EU stops performing like a diplomatic paper tiger towards Ankara. Europe must not be led by the nose round the Turkish election arena." Needless to say, such a move would delight Putin as the Kremlin has been aggressively courting Erdogan and Turkey as Russia seeks to make headway with its new middle-eastern Axis which also includes Syria and hopes to add Iran.

In the near-term, however, the outstanding question is how will Saturday"s events impact Wednesday"s Dutch general election, and whether the diplomatic clash will boost votes for Geert Wilders. As Reuters notes, "the diplomatic row comes in the run-up to the coming week"s Dutch election in which the mainstream parties are under strong pressure from the far-right party of Geert Wilders."

After Kaya, the Turkish family minister, was escorted out of the country, Wilders told her on Twitter "go away and never come back".

Erdogan"s spokesman responded by saying the Netherlands had bowed to anti-Islam sentiment.

"Shame on the Dutch government for succumbing to anti-Islam racists and fascists, and damaging long-standing Turkey-NL relations," presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin wrote on Twitter.

In a sign the row could spread further, the owner of a venue in Sweden where a senior official from Turkey"s ruling party had been due to hold a rally on Sunday canceled the rental contract, Turkey"s private Dogan news agency reported. The news agency said the owner had not given a reason for their decision. Cavusoglu also decided against traveling to Zurich, Switzerland, for an event on Sunday after failing to find a suitable venue. Zurich"s security authorities had unsuccessfully lobbied the federal government in Bern to ban Cavusoglu"s appearance.

Angry Turks Protest Near Rotterdam Consulate As Dutch Embassy In Turkey Closed Off

Update 3: The Mayor of Rotterdam has issued an order to vacate the city"s center, where the Turkish protesters are situated

BREAKING | Mayor of #Rotterdam has issued order to vacate city"s center, where #Turkish protesters are situated - @spectatorindex

— Vocal Europe (@thevocaleurope) March 11, 2017

* * *

Update 2: Dutch authorities have arrested Turkey"s family minister and are deporting her to#Germany according to RTL. The escalation may lead to a spike by Turks in the Netherlands, with some speculating that a curfew is imminent:

BREAKING | #Dutch authorities decided to arrest #Turkey"s family minister and deport her to #Germany; operation to arrest her underway: RTL pic.twitter.com/11gsaONQ69

— Vocal Europe (@thevocaleurope) March 11, 2017

Update: As expected, Gert Wilders has just chimed in, responding to the Turkish Family Minister who earlier in the day was barred by Dutch police from entering the Turkish consulate:

Go away and never come back @drbetulsayan and take all your Turkish fans from The Netherlands with you please. #byebye https://t.co/FLKFNX2XGm

— Geert Wilders (@geertwilderspvv) March 11, 2017

* * *

Hundreds of demonstrators waving Turkish flags gathered outside the Turkish consulate in the Dutch city of Rotterdam on Saturday night, demanding to see the Turkish minister for family affairs as a diplomatic scandal between the two countries escalated.

Turks in Rotterdam protest Dutch anti-democratic stancehttps://t.co/npZy210yHr pic.twitter.com/88z4aThg1E

— ANADOLU AGENCY (ENG) (@anadoluagency) March 11, 2017

Earlier in the day, Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu was barred from flying into Rotterdam to participate in pro-Erdogan rallies, to which the Turkish president responded by calling the Dutch "fascists" and his NATO partner a Nazi remnant" as the scandal over Ankara campaigning among emigre Turkish voters, which has recently swept Germany, Switzerland and Austria, intensified.

The Dutch quickly responded:

So #Erdogan called the Dutchies fascists and nazi"s today #turkijerel pic.twitter.com/tzobE35Uie

— DutchReview (@Dutchreviewing) March 11, 2017

In any case, as a protest built up by the Turkish consilate, the Police erected metal barriers and patrolled on horseback to keep the demonstrators away from the consulate as the crowd grew with more pro-Turkish protesters arriving from Germany, according to Reuters. A video released by a Turkish camera operator shows him being attacked by a police dog after he refused to leave the area in front of the consulate.

Once every few minutes the crowd is chanting:"Erdogan, Erdogan, stand straight" or "Allahu Akbar". #rotterdam #consulate #thenetherlands pic.twitter.com/fgkknlU71B

— Brenda StoterBoscolo (@BrendaStoter) March 11, 2017

ME drijft Turken terug in Rotterdam, Turkse cameraman luistert niet, politiehond bijt pic.twitter.com/ovtSCqiwX6

— roeland roovers ???? (@r0eland) March 11, 2017

Turkish Family Minister Fatma Betul Sayan Kaya traveled by road to the Netherlands from neighboring Germany after the Dutch government revoked the landing rights for the plane carrying the foreign minister earlier on Saturday. Dutch TV footage showed police stopping the minister"s convoy near the Turkish consulate in Rotterdam and preventing her from entering the building.

MORE: Turkish minister was surrounded by police after she stepped out of her car, newly released footage shows https://t.co/Z3Qi9Rz5GJ pic.twitter.com/XpDDrSzPQG

— RT (@RT_com) March 11, 2017

Hollanda polisi Aile ve Sosyal Politikalar bakan? Dr.Fatma Betül Sayan Kaya"ya Hollanda"y? terk etmesi gerekti?ini söylüyor. Kahpe Hollanda pic.twitter.com/WowNyahrFm

— Mayho? Adam (@Mayhosadam) March 11, 2017

The Dutch government said it did not want Turkish politicians campaigning among Turkish emigres in the Netherlands, leading President Tayyip Erdogan to brand the fellow NATO member a "Nazi remnant". The government also said it does not object to meetings in the Netherlands to give information about the Turkish referendum, "but these meetings should not add to tensions in our society and everybody who wants to organize a meeting must adhere to instructions from authorities so that public order and security can be guaranteed." It said the Turkish government "does not want to respect the rules in this matter."

Meanwhile, over in Turkey, the Dutch embassy and consulate in Turkey were closed off "for security reasons" on Saturday following the latest diplomatic scandal. The residences of the Dutch ambassador, charge d"affaires and consul general were also closed off, according to Reuters.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry said earlier in a statement that Ankara did not want “the Dutch ambassador, currently on leave, to return to his post for some time.”

“It has been explained to our counterparts that this grave decision taken against Turkey and the Dutch Turkish community will cause serious problems diplomatically, politically, economically and in other areas," the statement said, as cited by Reuters.

Turkey"s president Erdogan is expected to make a statement to the nation momentarily in response to the Dutch "provocation."

The unexpected escalation in tensions between the Netherlands and Turkey comes just three days ahead of the critical Dutch general election on March 15, in which the anti-immigration, anti-EU, Freedom Party of Geert Wilders is expected to emerge as the largest party. Today"s tensions may boost support for his platform which has seen a modest drop in public approval in recent days. A full preview of the Dutch General Election can be found here.

Erdogan Calls Dutch "Fascists" After Turkish Foreign Minister Barred Entry

One week after Turkey president, and wannabe tyrant, Tayyip Erdogan launched a new diplomatic scandal when he accused Germany of "fascist actions" reminiscent of "Nazi practices" after various rallies organized by Turkish minister in Germany were cancelled ahead of an April referendum on granting Erdogan sweeping new presidential powers, he doubled down on Saturday after the Netherlands barred Turkey"s Foreign Minister from flying to Rotterdam, to which Erdogan responded by calling the Dutch "fascists" and his NATO partner a Nazi remnant" as the scandal over Ankara campaigning among emigre Turkish voters intensified.

"Listen Netherlands, you"ll jump once, you"ll jump twice, but my people will thwart your game," Erdogan said. "You can cancel our foreign minister"s flight as much as you want, but let"s see how your flights come to Turkey now. They don"t know diplomacy or politics. They are Nazi remnants. They are fascists."

#BREAKING Erdo?an says "Netherlands should now think about how their planes will land in Turkey, they are Nazi remnants, fascists" pic.twitter.com/YIdY2tomV7

— CNN Türk ENG (@CNNTURK_ENG) March 11, 2017

Shortly after Erdogan"s comments, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan"s remark comparing the Dutch to the Nazis was "way out of line." 

"It"s a crazy remark of course," Rutte told journalists during campaigning for the March 15 election. "I understand they"re angry, but this of course was way out of line."

Rotterdam banned Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu from attending a Turkish rally in support of Erdogan"s drive for sweeping new powers, to be put to a referendum next month, Reuters reported.

Landing rights for the flight of Cavusoglu were withdrawn, the Dutch Foreign Ministry said Saturday in a statement. The government acted after an invitation to Turks to “participate in a public meeting” with Cavusoglu in Rotterdam put “public order and safety in jeopardy."

With Netherlands itself set to hold a national election on March 15, in which anti-immigration sentiment has played a prominent role with nationalist candidate Geert Wilders calling Erdogan a dictator, the Dutch have been especially careful how they tread vis-a-vis Turkey. However, today"s ban has prompted a lashing out which may well boost the recently deflated Wilders" anti-immigration campaign.

After being grounded, Cavusoglu said on Saturday morning he would fly to Rotterdam anyway and accused the Dutch of treating Turkish citizens in the country like "hostages".

"I sent them so they could contribute to your economy ... They"re not your captives," he told CNN Turk television.

"If my going will increase tensions, let it be. What damage will my going have on them? I am a foreign minister and I can go wherever I want," he said before the Dutch barred his flight.

Cavusoglu had threatened harsh economic and political sanctions if the Dutch refused him entry, a threat that proved decisive for the Netherlands government. According to Reuters, the Dutch cited public order and security concerns in withdrawing landing rights for Cavusoglu"s flight. But it said the sanctions threat made the search for a reasonable solution impossible.

Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte said that while the Netherlands and Turkey could search for "an acceptable solution", Turkey was not respecting the rules relating to public gatherings. "Many Dutch people with a Turkish background are authorized to vote in the referendum over the Turkish constitution. The Dutch government does not have any protest against gatherings in our country to inform them about it," he said on Facebook. "But these gatherings may not contribute to tensions in our society and everyone who wants to hold a gathering is obliged to follow instructions of those in authority so that public order and safety can be guaranteed," Rutte added.

In addition to Germany and the Netherlands, four other planned Turkish rallies in Austria and one in Switzerland have also been cancelled in the dispute. Chancellor Merkel, whose country Erdogan also compared last week with Nazi Germany, has said she will do everything possible to prevent any spillover of Turkish political tensions onto German soil.

Meanwhile, Cavusoglu said Turks in Germany were under systematic pressure from police and intelligence services.

The reason for the ongoing rallies which are alienating the already scandal-plagued Turkey from its (former) European allies is that Erdogan is looking to the large number of emigre Turks living in Europe, especially Germany and the Netherlands, to help clinch victory in next month"s referendum which will shape the future of a country whose location on the edge of the Middle East makes it of crucial strategic importance to NATO and explains why despite the ongoing diplomatic fallout, Western "leaders" have engaged in little more than polite diplomatic rebuttals.

Erdogan cited domestic threats from Kurdish and Islamist militants and a July coup bid as cause to vote "yes" to his new powers. But he has also drawn on the emotionally charged row with Europe to portray Turkey as betrayed by allies, facing wars on its southern borders and in need of strong leadership.

More importantly, Cavusoglu has made a veiled threat of possible realignment of Turkey in the world in a reference to Russia. "The Netherlands should stop this faulty understanding and approach...If they think Turkey will take whatever they do, that Turkey is gone. I told them this, stop this boss-like attitude. If Europe keeps this up, they will lose many places, including Russia and us.”

The scandal comes one day after Erdogan flew to Moscow for his latest summit with Vladimir Putin during which he said that "we can say with certainty that our countries have returned to the path of authentic multi-faceted partnership," Putin said at a news conference following expanded talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Moscow, to which Putin responded "I"d like to emphasize that we view Turkey as our key partner. We are ready to maintain active political dialogue at the highest level."

The Complete Preview Of The March 15 Dutch General Election

March 15 is not only the day when the FOMC is now widely expected to hike rates by another 25 bps, and when the US debt ceiling suspension expires, but just as importantly, is the date of the 2017 Dutch General Election. Here is a full preview of what to expect courtesy of RBC Capital Markets.

By way of background, the Netherlands is the euro area’s 5th-largest economy, a founding member of the EU and one of only 3 euro area countries (along with Germany and Luxembourg) to enjoy an AAA rating from the 3 main ratings agencies.

Netherlands general election – summary

• Dutch voters cast their ballots in the country’s general election on Wednesday March 15th


• According to opinion polls the (centre-right) VVD party of current Prime Minister Mark Rutte is vying with the anti-immigration, anti-EU, Freedom Party of Geert Wilders to emerge as the largest party


• The election is the first in a series of votes this year that includes elections in France (April/May) and Germany (September), and potentially also Italy if early elections are announced later this year


• A victory in the popular vote for Wilders could therefore be interpreted as a signal that anti-EU populist parties are coming to the fore in the EU ahead of those elections


• However, the fractured nature of Dutch politics (it’s likely that up to 14 separate parties will win seats in parliament) means that the wider impact of Wilders emerging with the largest party may be limited


• With no party set to command more than 30 seats in the 150-seat parliament, at least four parties will be required to form a government


• Convention dictates that, were it to win the popular vote, Wilders’ Freedom Party would have first attempt at forming a government


• However, most of the other main parties have ruled out co-operating with the Freedom Party and there is no rule that the government must contain the largest party


• In order to deliver its commitment to withdraw the Netherlands from the EU, the Freedom Party would: 1) need to form a government that would agree to put a referendum bill to parliament; and 2) gain parliamentary approval, neither of which appear likely possibilities

Dutch General Election: Opinion Polls

Dutch politics – a bluffer’s guide

Dutch election 2017 – the main protagonists

Dutch election 2017 – but it’s not just about the big two parties

Negotiation, negotiation, negotiation

A near-term referendum on EU membership is unlikely

Even thought Public opinion in favour of the EU has fallen…

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Full presentation below (link)