Showing posts with label Foreclosure. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Foreclosure. Show all posts

Thursday, November 9, 2017

Foreclosed $51 Million "Billionaire"s Row" Penthouse Sells At A 30% Discount

Kola Aluko’s posh penthouse apartment in One57, one of Manhattan’s most expensive luxury towers, has finally sold after months of delays in what New York realtors agree is the most expensive residential foreclosure in city history.


The sale price - a paltry $36 million - suggests that the stress seen in the ultra-high-end real estate market in New York City has only worsened as buyers brace for a glut of new luxury buildings coming online in the coming years.


The buyer of unit 97, one of five bidders aside from the bank, wouldn’t answer questions, and his name wasn’t immediately available. Aluko purchased the building through shell companies. Recently, his assets have been seized by authorities in several countries as he’s wanted for bribing officials to receive lucrative contracts with his country’s state-owned oil company, Bloomberg reported.



Aluko bought the 6,240-square-foot (580-square-meter) residence in December 2014 for $50.9 million, according to New York City records. The sale yielded a compound annual return of about minus 11%.


And in September 2015, he took out an unusually large mortgage with an unusually short term: one year. The $35.3 million mortgage was obtained from Luxembourg-based lender Banque Havilland SA. The full payment of the loan was due one year later, according to court documents filed in connection with the foreclosure. The borrower failed to repay, and now Banque Havilland has forced a sale to recoup its funds.


“It’s probably the most-expensive foreclosure we’ve ever seen in luxury development,” said Donna Olshan, president of high-end Manhattan brokerage Olshan Realty Inc. “I don’t know of a foreclosure that’s larger than that."


WSJ reported in August that luxury condos in Billionaires’ Row have faced steep discounts as building owners have struggled to find buyers.


An analysis of condominium records shows the average discount on nine contracts signed at the Baccarat in 2016 was 22% below the peak asking prices of 2014, when the market was red hot. These include the sprawling 7,300-square-foot penthouse plus terrace that sold in June 2016 for $42.6 million, soon after the asking price was from $60 million to $54 million. Overall that amounted to a 29% price reduction.


One57 went on the market in 2011, and as of August there were still five units for sale. As we’ve previously reported, foreclosure proceedings were started in January. An auction scheduled for July was delayed after a creditor claimed Aluko owed it about $83 million for gasoline and jet fuel.
 









Friday, October 27, 2017

Vacant Property Rates Soar In Over Half Of U.S. Local Housing Markets

According to a new report from ATTOM Data Solutions published earlier today, vacant property rates are once again increasing in many markets across the country but perhaps not for the reasons you might think.  While so-called pre-foreclosure "zombie" properties have declined some 22% YoY, overall vacant property rates in 54% of the 149 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed by ATTOM actually increased due to, among other things, increasing ownership rates by investors as opposed to actual homeowners.


ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s largest multi-sourced property database, today released its 2017 U.S. Residential Vacant Property and Zombie Foreclosure Report, which shows nearly 1.4 million (1,367,793) U.S. residential properties (1 to 4 units) were vacant as of the end of the third quarter of 2017 — representing 1.58 percent of all U.S. residential properties.


 


The 1.58 percent vacant property rate nationwide decreased slightly from 1.63 percent a year ago, but vacant property rates increased from a year ago in 81 of the 149 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report (54 percent), including Chicago, New York, St. Louis, Baltimore and Phoenix.


 


The report also shows that the number of vacant “zombie” pre-foreclosure properties — which have started the foreclosure process but have not yet been repossessed by the foreclosing lender — decreased 22 percent from a year ago to 14,312 as of the end of Q3 2017, 67 percent below the peak of 44,030 in Q3 2013. The number of vacant bank-owned properties decreased 48 percent from a year ago to 24,026 as of the end of Q3 2017.


 


“Zombie foreclosures have dwindled dramatically over the last four years as a supply-starved housing has soaked up even some of the most highly distressed properties,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “There are still pockets of the country with high zombie foreclosure rates, and high vacant property rates in general, primarily in the Rust Belt and parts of the Northeast and Southeast — driven in large part by a high share of non-owner occupied vacant properties in those areas.


 


“There is evidence that the ultra-tight inventory environment in some red-hot markets is beginning to ease just a bit, with vacant property rates nudging higher in markets such as San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston and Denver,” Blomquist added.



The Vacant Distressed

Not surprisingly, some of the highest vacancy rates were observed in mid-western markets like Flint, Michigan and Baltimore.


Among 149 metropolitan statistical areas with at least 100,000 residential properties (1 to 4 units), those with the highest vacancy rates were Flint, Michigan (6.89 percent); Youngstown, Ohio (4.49 percent); Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas (3.80 percent); Detroit, Michigan (3.77 percent); and Mobile, Alabama (3.77 percent).


 


Among 405 counties with at least 50,000 residential properties, those with the highest vacancy rates were Baltimore City, Maryland (8.14 percent); Saint Louis City, Missouri (6.97 percent); Beaufort County, South Carolina (6.94 percent); Genesee County, Michigan (6.89 percent); and Wayne County, Michigan (6.76 percent).


 


Among 13,616 U.S. zip codes with at least 1,000 residential properties, those with the highest vacancy rates were led by three zip codes in the city of Gary, Indiana: 46409 (30.26 percent); 46407 (29.62 percent); and 46402 (29.53 percent), followed by 48505 in Flint, Michigan (29.00 percent); and 44507 in Youngstown, Ohio (25.97 percent).



2017 Vacant Property Rates by Zip Code

And while "zombie" foreclosures are down nationwide, a staggering total of 14,312 properties in the foreclosure process remained vacant as of the end of Q3 2017, representing 4.2.% of all properties in foreclosure.


States with the most of these vacant “zombie” foreclosures were New York (3,528), New Jersey (2,261), Florida (1,963), Illinois (999), and Ohio (974).


 


Among 149 metropolitan statistical areas with at least 100,000 residential properties (1 to 4 units), those with the most vacant “zombie” foreclosures were New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (3,106); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (813), Chicago, Illinois (665), Miami, Florida (571), and Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida (477).



Meanwhile, a stunning 24% of "investment" properties in Flint, Michigan found themselves without a tenet at the end of Q3 2017...


Nationwide more than 1 million non-owner occupied (investment) residential properties (1,032,851) were vacant, representing 4.30 percent of all non-owner occupied residential properties and unchanged from a year ago.


 


States with the highest vacancy rate for non-owner occupied (investment) properties were Michigan (9.84 percent); Indiana (9.52 percent); Kansas (7.11 percent); Mississippi (6.92 percent); and Alabama (6.83 percent).


 


Among 149 metropolitan statistical areas with at least 100,000 residential properties (1 to 4 units), those with the highest vacancy rate for non-owner occupied (investment) properties were Flint, Michigan (23.64 percent); Youngstown, Ohio (12.01 percent); Detroit, Michigan (11.88 percent); South Bend, Indiana (10.47 percent); and Indianapolis, Indiana (10.46 percent).



...which presumably makes them not such a great "investment".









Tuesday, October 10, 2017

NYC Foreclosures Surge 79%; Most Since 2009

A few weeks ago we noted that New York"s "smart money" at a variety of U.S. banking institutions were tripping over each other to underwrite dividend recaps for owners of expensive commercial real estate projects just as buyers of those properties suddenly dried up completely (see: NYC Commercial Real Estate Sales Plunge Over 50% As Owners Lever Up In The Absence Of Buyers).  But we"re sure it was nothing...the 27-year-old analysts leading those bank deals, fully syndicated deals in which their respective employers will retain no risk by the way, probably just know more about the commercial real estate market than those who count themselves among the list of former prospective buyers.


Still, it does seem odd that the commercial real estate market in NYC is collapsing at the same time that residential foreclosures are surging to levels not seen since the 2009 crisis.  As Property Shark points out today, foreclosures across NYC surged 79% YoY in Q3 2017, to 859, and remain at the highest levels since the "great recession."



All 5 boroughs registered increases in the number of homes scheduled for auction, though Staten Island, the Bronx, and Brooklyn saw numbers skyrocket compared to Q3 2016, up 264%, 145% and 118%, respectively.



Meanwhile, the eastern neighborhoods of Brooklyn and the Bronx seem to be the most impacted as Staten Island foreclosures are rising fairly uniformly.



And here is a more in-depth look at the individual boroughs...


Bronx:





A record-high number of homes were scheduled for auction in Q3 2017, representing a 145% increase compared to Q3 2016. The number of cases in the Bronx kept relatively at the same levels for the past quarters with a spike in Q2 2016 but otherwise hovering around 100 homes per quarter or even lower than that. Back in the second quarter, the Bronx was the only borough that recorded a year-over-year decrease in foreclosure activity. The situation changed drastically in Q3 2017 when 247 homes were scheduled for the first time.



Zip code 10469 had the highest number of new foreclosures: 32 homes were scheduled here in Q3 2017. Not far behind, zip codes 10462, 10473, 10466, and 10465 all had close to 30 new cases each, showing a concentration of foreclosure activity in the eastern half of the borough. The graph below captures the evolution in the number of cases and the spike recorded this previous quarter.




Brooklyn:





While compared to the previous quarter’s count of 264 homes scheduled for auction, Q3 2017 seems to have brought some respite for Brooklyn, the number of homes headed for auction is still high. Q3 2017 brought a 118% year-over-year jump, given that 205 homes were headed for the auction block. When looking at Q3 2016, only 94 new foreclosures were recorded in the borough.



Zip code 11236, covering Canarsie, had the most cases filed – 31 homeowners here saw their homes scheduled to be auctioned in Q3 2017. East NY, Canarsie, and the Flatlands are usually the scene for the highest number of cases in Brooklyn, but this time we noticed increases in Southern Brooklyn zip codes as well. For example, in 11229 there were only 4 first-time foreclosures in Q3 2016, compared to 15 in Q3 2017. Bed-Stuy’s 11233 also recorded a jump in cases from 2 in Q3 2016 to 10 in Q3 2017.



The first three quarters of 2017 were particularly harsh for Brooklyn homeowners, especially compared to the numbers we tracked over the past years. While in 2016 there were a total of 410 homes scheduled for auction in the borough, with only 3 quarters elapsed from 2017, there have already been 637 new foreclosures. Check out the graph below for a detailed, by-quarter evolution of first-time foreclosures in Brooklyn.




Staten Island:





Historically, Staten Island had low numbers of homes heading for the auction block, but the second quarter of 2017 brought a record-high number: 105 first-time foreclosures were scheduled. In Q3 2017, the number went down 24% quarter-over-quarter, but it was up 246% year-over-year. That’s also due to the fact that Q3 2016 only had 22 cases, which was low even for what we’re used to seeing each quarter in Staten Island.




Queens:





Back in Q3 2016, Queens accounted for almost half of new foreclosure cases in NYC, as 227 of the 481 new foreclosures in the city were recorded in Queens . The first two quarters of 2017 brought a high number of cases with a peak in Q2. In the third quarter of 2017, however, foreclosures in Queens dropped 26% quarter-over-quarter and settled in at 288 cases.



Though still up 27% compared to Q3 2016, Queens is now far from having around half of all NYC cases, mainly as a result of the increases recorded in Brooklyn and the Bronx. In Q3 2017, the number of new foreclosures in each of the two boroughs was close to reaching the one recorded in Queens.



Queens also used to be home to the top zip code by number of foreclosures – Jamaica’s 11434 consistently had a high number of cases each quarter. This time, there were 29 first-time foreclosures in 11434, fewer than the numbers recorded in the top zip codes for both Brooklyn and the Bronx.





Not surprisingly, the only folks that haven"t experienced a surge in foreclosures are the bankers and hedgies living in Manhattan who continue to benefit from bubbly markets growing bubblier by the day...at least for now.

Sunday, October 1, 2017

What Housing Bubble? Most Australians Couldn't Afford $100 Mortgage-Payment Hike

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com


A new study shows 57% of Australia mortgage holders could not handle a $100 increase in their loan repayment.


Stress has turned up in even the wealthiest cities.



But who is truly wealthy? Paper profits on homes with enormous mortgages does not constitute wealth.


Please consider $100 Tipping Point for 57% of Mortgage Holders.





A staggering 57% of mortgage holders could not handle a $100 increase in their loan repayments, according to new research by Finder.com.au.



This additional $100 is equivalent to an interest rate rise of just 0.45% based on the national average mortgage of $360,600. This means the average standard variable rate of 4.83% would only have to rise to 5.28% to put more than half of mortgage holders in stress.



“The typical mortgage holder will begin to struggle once interest rates reach around 5.28% – that’s a pretty small window before borrowing costs start to hurt,” she said.



With the research also showing that 39% of all mortgages are interest-only, this highlights why the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) have shown some concern, she added.



Comparing genders, 63% of women and 50% of men would struggle to repay their mortgages with an increase of less than $100 per month.



Across the states, South Australian borrowers were the worst placed with 70% saying they could not handle an increase of less than $100 per month. This figure was lower in New South Wales, Tasmania and Western Australia at 59% and further dropped to 51% in Victoria.



Stress in Wealthiest Areas


Also consider Severe mortgage stress is cropping up in some of Australia’s richest suburbs.





Severe mortgage stress is cropping up in some of Australia’s richest suburbs, revealing that wealthy Australians have been guzzling at the debt fountain. Thousands of households in suburbs like Mosman, Brighton and Nedlands are in mortgage stress, with some at risk of mortgage default in the next 12 months, according to new data from Digital Financial Analytics.



Wealth is impossible to see if the person doesn’t want to flaunt it, and easy enough to fake. You can mortgage yourself to buy a grand home and the car to match, and have the trappings of wealth while actually being so far in debt you’re in financial hell.



Looking rich and being rich are not the same thing at all, but when times are good, it’s difficult to tell the difference. As the saying goes, ‘When the tide goes out, you see who’s not wearing any swimmers’.



Financial Hell Coming


When top finally blows off the Australian housing bubble, the results will be devastating.

Monday, September 18, 2017

$700 Billion Unpaid Mortgage Balances In Hurricane Harvey And Irma Disaster Areas

Even as the damage from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma is still being tallied, a preliminary assessment released last week by Black Knight Financial Services estimated that as many as 300,000 borrowers in the vicinity of Houston could become delinquent on their loans and 160,000 could become seriously delinquent, or more than 90 days past due. 


That number is roughly four times the original prediction because new disaster zones were designated and more homes flooded when officials released water from reservoirs to protect dams, according to CNBC"s Diana Olick. In total, the number of mortgaged properties in Texas disaster zones is 1.18 million, with Black Knight adding that Houston disaster zones contain twice as many mortgaged properties than Katrina zones, with four times the unpaid principal balance.


Putting the Harvey damange in context, after Hurricane Katrina mortgage delinquencies in Louisiana and Mississippi disaster areas spiked by 25%. The same could happen in Houston, as borrowers without flood insurance weigh their options and decide to walk away from the property. While they will get some federal relief, if rebuilding would cost more than the principal in their homes, they could decide to walk away according to Olick.


What about Irma?


According to a preliminary analysis by Black Knight released today, Florida FEMA-designated disaster areas related to Hurricane Irma include a whopping 3.1 million mortgaged properties.  As Black Knight"s EVP Ben Graboske explained, both the number of mortgages and the unpaid principal balances of those mortgages in FEMA-designated Irma disaster areas are significantly larger than in the areas impacted recently by Hurricane Harvey.


Quantifying the damage, Black Knight calculates that Irma-related disaster areas contain nearly three times as many mortgaged properties as those connected to Hurricane Harvey, and nearly seven times as many as those connected to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. In dollar terms, this means that there is some $517 billion in unpaid principal balances in Irma-related disaster areas, nearly three times the amount as in those related to Harvey and more than 11 times of those connected to Katrina.


“While the total extent of the damage from Hurricane Irma is still being determined, it is clear that the size and scope of the disaster is immense,” said Graboske.


“Indeed, in terms of the number of mortgaged properties and their associated unpaid principal balances, Irma significantly outpaces even the number of borrowers impacted by Hurricane Harvey. With FEMA expanding the number of Irma-related designated disaster areas late Wednesday, Sept. 13, to a total of 37 Florida counties, more than 90 percent of all mortgaged properties in the state now fall into such areas. More than 3.1 million properties are now included in FEMA-designated Irma disaster areas, representing approximately $517 billion in unpaid principal balances. In comparison, Harvey-related disaster areas held 1.18 million properties – more than twice as many as with Hurricane Katrina in 2005 – with a combined unpaid principal balance of $179 billion. Irma-related disaster areas now contain nearly seven times as many mortgaged properties as those connected to Katrina, with more than 11 times the principal balances.


Combining the preliminary estimates for both Harvey and Irma suggests that over 3.3 million total mortgaged properties are located in Irma and Harvey-related FEMA Disaster zones, while the dollar amount of total unpaid mortgage balances in these two zones is massive: between Irma"s $517 billion and Harvey"s $179 billion, the total potential damage could impact as much as a $696 billion in notional mortgage values, which banks could be on the hook for if current occupiers decide to simply walk away.


Based on back of the envelope analyses by Black Knight, an extrapolation of the Katrina damage would suggest that Florida could suffer as much as 750,000 mortgage delinquencies as a result of Hurricane Irma.


To be sure, there are mitigating circumstances: Florida borrowers likely have more insurance and less exposure to loss, but for those homes with the most damage, homeowners will be making the same calculation as those that suffered devastating flooding after Harvey. Another issue in Florida according to Olick is that even a decade later, the housing market is still recovering from the foreclosure crisis. Five percent of Florida borrowers still owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, and an additional 5 percent have very little equity in their homes. Home prices in Fort Myers, which saw considerable flooding from Irma, are still 29 percent below what they were during the housing boom.


Still, in order to avoid a surge in foreclosures, lenders are more likely to offer borrowers, even seriously delinquent borrowers, options to catch up, although the biggest risk to lenders will be in Houston, where some homeowners may see no good reason to stay.


There was some silver lining: “As Irma forged its path of destruction through the Caribbean, one relatively positive development was that Puerto Rico escaped the direct hit many had predicted. From a mortgage performance perspective, this was particularly good news, as delinquencies there were already quite high leading up to the storm. At more than 10 percent, Puerto Rico’s delinquency rate is nearly three times that of the U.S. average, as is its 5.8 percent serious delinquency rate. In contrast, the disaster areas declared in Florida have starting delinquency rates below the national average, providing more than a glimmer of optimism as we move forward.”


Unfortunately, Hurricane Maria, now a Category 3, is expected to hit Puerto Rico some time on Wednesday, adding to the damage already suffered from Irma, and potentially sending the already bankrupt territory reeling even deeper into the financial hole.

Sunday, September 17, 2017

Long-Term Mortgage Delinquencies Seriously Under-Reported

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,


Keith Jurow, a real estate analyst and author of the Capital Preservation Real Estate Report, pinged me a few days ago with his analysis that suggests long-term mortgage delinquencies are seriously under-reported.





Hi Mish,



I thought you might be interested in the important clarification I just received from my contact at the NY State Dept. of Financial Services.



A few weeks ago, I sent you the latest update (attached again) of pre-foreclosure notices sent to delinquent homeowners in NYC and LI. I had noticed that 80% were listed as delinquent for less than 60 days. I asked my contact why that percentage was so high when he had been telling me for several years that over 40% of these notices were repeat notices – sent to long-term delinquents.



His response was that for repeat notices, the mortgage servicers often provided the same information as on the original notice. For example, if a repeat notice was sent two years after the initial one, the length of delinquency was not changed from that first one. That was why a second notice where the borrower might be three years delinquent could show a delinquency of 60 days.



This clarification confirmed my belief that many – if not most – of the borrowers were now delinquent for several years.



Keith Jurow



New York Loan Delinquencies



Out of 65,523 loans, a whopping 52,218 supposedly fall into the 60-days or less delinquent bucket.


90-Day Pre-foreclosure Notices Filed with the NY Department of Financial Services



100% of those 65,523 delinquencies generated a 90-day pre-foreclosure notice.


Case closed.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

No, Harvey Won't Help America's Flagging Housing Market

Authored by Danielle DiMartino Booth via DiMartinoBooth.com,


Something is up, or more likely down, with the U.S. housing market. And the reconstruction after Hurricane Harvey may not do much to help.


Here"s the evidence:


The latest take on home-builder sentiment showed that buyer traffic stubbornly remains in negative territory, despite some of the highest readings of the current cycle on builders" expectations for sales gains in the next six months.


In addition, recent mortgage rate declines have not led to an increase in applications to buy a home. Over the past few weeks, purchase activity has slumped to a six-month low, even though rates are at their lowest level since November. This defies a central tenet of the housing market that falling rates naturally lead to an uptick in sales.


As for actual sales volumes, both new and existing July home sales missed forecasts by wide margins. At an annualized rate of 571,000, new home sales dropped to a seven-month low, well off their long-term average pace of 727,000. The number of homes on the ground rose to 276,000 units, the highest since June 2009. At July"s pace, it would take 5.8 months to clear the inventory.


The existing home sales report that followed was similarly weak, with closings sliding to the lowest since August 2016. Not only was the 5.44-million annualized pace 110,000 units below forecast, July"s figures reveal the all-important spring selling season was something of a bust, given July"s data captured contracts signed from April through June.


Prices have been and remain the main impediment. The median new home sales price of $313,700 marked the highest July price on record and is up more than six percent over last year"s level. At an annual gain of 6.2 percent, the best that can be said of the median sales price for previously occupied homes is that it"s off the record pace it set in June. Corroborating the slowdown in sales, both the Federal Housing Finance Agency and S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes have softened unexpectedly.


As has been the case since housing collapsed over a decade ago, the missing contingency in the current recovery is the first-time home-buyer. In a normal market, first-timers comprise 40 percent of buyers. In July, they made up a third of the market, which is one of the highest reads of the current cycle.


What"s certain is that the run-up in home prices has not been helpful for millennials aiming to stop renting or even move out of their parent"s homes. The latest results from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence Sentiment speak volumes. While all buyers have expressed dismay at home price gains, those between the ages of 18 and 34 have been particularly alarmed.



The survey also showed an expanding pool of those with a dour perception on housing. Thanks to high prices, both upper- and lower-income cohorts as well as those in the West and the South now say they"re pessimistic about buying a home. Likewise, prime-age buyers (ages 35-54) are now echoing their younger counterparts" laments about prices.


Looking ahead, pending home sales suggest the summer"s data are anything but an aberration. The pending home sales index has fallen in four of the last five months, with July coming in particularly weak, down 0.8 percent compared to the consensus forecast, which called for a rise of 0.4 percent.


For years, Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, has cited constrained inventories of homes as the main driver of any weakness in the sales figures. After the recent spate of disappointments on the pending home sales front, Yun added the following perspective on prices: Over the past five years, median home prices have risen 38 percent while hourly earnings have increased by just 12 percent. This yawning gap has pushed affordability to its lowest level since 2008.


Tellingly, the most recent data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealed a jump in construction worker layoffs. The mitigating factor will be the tremendous demand for workers to repair and eventually rebuild Houston and the surrounding region after the devastation wreaked by Hurricane Harvey.


What is less of a certainty is the long-term effect of the storm. About 1.2 million homes in and around Houston were at moderate to high risk for flooding but aren’t in a designated flood zone that would have required insurance. Many will qualify for federal disaster relief. Still, the government program comes in the form of low-interest rate loans to help shoulder the burden of repair costs at a time when many households are already buried in debt with precious little in savings; as the third quarter got underway, the saving rate fell to 3.5 percent, a fresh low for the current cycle.


Although many have drawn comparisons to the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, Harvey will affect more than twice as many mortgaged properties. According to Black Knight Financial Services, of the 1 million or so mortgaged homeowners in the disaster area, more than 300,000 could become delinquent within two months, and 160,00 are at risk of becoming seriously delinquent inside a four-month period.


As per the Mortgage Bankers Association, homes in foreclosure nationwide totaled 502,437 in the second quarter, exemplifying the very real potential for Harvey to leave a huge scar on the housing market.


It is clear investors are banking on the rebuilding effort becoming its own macroeconomic engine of growth. With housing clearly peaking, the nearer-term risk is that Harvey’s devastation solidifies broader market woes.

Monday, July 24, 2017

Detroit Is Demolishing Homes With Federal Money Meant "To Save Them"

Contrary to popular perception, not all of the money approved as part of the federal government’s emergency effort to save the American financial system in the fall of 2008 went to the big banks. Some of it – nearly $10 billion, all told – went to support the government’s “hardest hit” program, meant to help forestall foreclosures in 18 states.


And unsurprisingly, nearly a decade after the program was signed into law, government investigators are finding that much of this money was squandered by state governments. Money initially earmarked to help troubled homeowners struggling with underwater mortgages was instead spent on demolitions meant to boost prices of surrounding homes and help ward off crime in city neighborhoods. Except the money was often squandered by state governments, disproportionately robbing poor citizens in cities like Detroit of a program meant to save them from homelessness.



As the Detroit Metro Times reports, Detroit"s decade-long wave of tax and mortgage foreclosures has wiped out large swaths of the city"s neighborhoods as Wayne County continues to seize thousands of occupied homes a year. The city"s neediest homeowners were supposed to receive federal assistance to save their homes as part of the Treasury Department"s seven-year-old Hardest Hit Fund. But the State of Michigan squandered its money by adopting unnecessarily stringent requirements — according to a scathing audit issued in January by the Office of the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (SIGTARP).


In 2010, Michigan originally received nearly $500 million to provide loans to eligible homeowners who were facing tax or mortgage foreclosure. But the program, called Step Forward Michigan, rejected funding for about 5,000 Detroiters, while assisting more than 2,000 homeowners who earned at least $70,000 a year. That number eventually swelled to $761 million, and of that amount, half was committed to demolitions.


As a result, more than 80 percent of Detroiters making $30,000 or less a year were denied assistance to save their homes from tax or mortgage foreclosure. By contrast, the other 17 states with Hardest Hit Funds rejected 53 percent of homeowners making less than $30,000.





"Michigan and Ohio are among the states that have the most TARP dollars set aside, but also have some of the highest percentage of people turned down for the Hardest Hit Fund," the audit reads.”



SIGTARP said Michigan"s high rejection rate "raises questions about whether these programs are as effective and efficient as they can be to reach those people who are the hardest hit." But perhaps even more galling than the state government’s decision to turn away needy homeowners, is how Michigan instead became the first state in 2013 to demolish homes using money intended to save them.


As the paper explains, the idea was that demolitions would revitalize neighborhoods by increasing the property values of surrounding houses, attracting new homeowners, and reducing crime rates.


The plan was only marginally successful: A report commissioned by the Skillman Foundation and Rock Ventures found that each demolition in Detroit increased the value of adjacent homes by only 4.2 percent. Since 2013, Detroit has razed more than 10,000 blighted and abandoned houses using the federal funds. But in its criticism of Michigan’s program, the Treasury Department investigators didn’t focus on its effectiveness, or the unconscionable notion that Michigan decided to destroy homes instead of saving homeowners from being put out on the street.


Instead, Michigan and several other states’ decision to use the money for demolitions has come under fire because the federal government created no rules or controls to prevent fraud, waste, and abuse, according to a 2016 SIGTARP investigation.


Their negligence allowed the program to be riddled with waste and fraud, as contractors started raising their bids, and the bidding process for demolitions has become rife with bid-rigging and other tactics for fraud and abuse that were once famously associated with the American mafia. Soaring demolition costs in the state caught the attention of federal investigators, and now the Detroit Land Bank"s handling of the demolitions has become the subject of an ongoing federal grand jury investigation.





“The investigation found that demolition programs are ‘vulnerable to the risk of unfair competitive practices such as bid rigging, contract steering, and other closed door contracting processes’ because the "Treasury conducts no oversight" and therefore cannot determine whether the cost of demolition is ‘necessary and reasonable.’






The SIGTARP report added that "the vulnerability of the Hardest Hit Fund to fraud, waste, and abuse significantly increased with blight elimination, which Treasury could have mitigated, but did not."



In a report to Congress in April, a federal inspector slammed the state of Michigan for "skyrocketing demolition costs," indicating that the average price to raze a house had increased 90 percent, from $9,266 to $17,643 by the second quarter of 2016.



The Detroit Land Bank"s handling of the demolitions has become the subject of an ongoing federal grand jury investigation. The Land Bank declined to comment for this story.”



Foreclosure experts question why Michigan, one of the states hardest hit by the Great Recession, would prioritize demolition over foreclosure prevention. Over the past decade, more than one in three homes in Detroit, a total of about 140,000, have been foreclosed because of unpaid taxes or mortgage defaults. Yet, requirements for the TARP relief program, a program that most homeowners probably aren’t even aware of, have been incredibly strict.





"Many of the houses now being demolished could have been saved if there wasn"t a lack of preventing foreclosures," says Jerry Paffendorf, co-founder and CEO of Loveland Technologies, a Detroit-based property and mapping company. "If you don"t prevent foreclosures, you"re going to have more houses to demolish."



Michigan’s eligibility requirements were unusually strict, according to the report. For example, the state declines assistance to homeowners whose income was not cut by at least 20 percent, unlike other states that don’t require a specific pay reduction to be eligible. Michigan also denies funding to homeowners whose unemployment benefits ran out more than a year ago.





"The Michigan requirement does not reward a responsible worker whose paycheck was cut more than one year ago and has exhausted unemployment benefits, savings, family help, or low-paying part-time work to pay their mortgage," SIGTARP wrote in January 2017.



And while the Metro Times doesn’t bother asking why Michigan would favor contractors over poor urban homeowners, for anyone familiar with how statewide political campaigns are financed, the answer should be obvious. State contractors are often major donors to politicians. So, is it any surprise that politicians would favor their benefactors over a handful of voters?
 

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Is Canada Really "In Serious Trouble": Goldman Responds

One week after we channeled Deutsche Bank"s Torsten Slok, who two years ago warned that "Canada is in serious trouble", a warning which was especially resonant after last week"s rate hike by the Bank of Canada - the first since 2010 -  which we argued threatens to burst Canada"s gargantuan housing bubble...



... resulting in dramatic negative consequences for Canada"s construction-heavy economy...



... Goldman has released a report titled "Does Canada 2017 = US 2007?" seeking to answer whether Canada"s economy is indeed on the verge of a housing bubble burst and which - considering it was the most read piece on GS360 this morning - touches on a question many investors the seeking the answers, especially after the IMF echoed our concerns last Thursday, when it issued a report in which it warned about the "danger of a sharp correction in the housing market."


By way of background, Goldman notes the following:





"nominal home prices in Canada have grown by 13% over the past year, and by 200% since 2000. These sharp increases in home prices in Canada have invited comparisons with the US housing market in the period leading up to the Global Financial Crisis (Exhibit 1). A large downturn in the Canadian housing market in 2017 would seem particularly untimely given the likelihood of rising mortgage rates in Canada. Most Canadian mortgages have 25-year amortization schedules but 5-year terms, and so borrowers typically have to re-qualify for new mortgages every 5 years. Under our rates view, many Canadian mortgage borrowers may be forced in the coming years to refinance their loans at higher mortgage rates.



To frame Goldman"s take, the bank"s housing strategist Marty Young writes that "given the potential risks that a housing downturn could pose to the Canadian economy, we address here the questions (1) “is Canada’s housing market in 2017 comparable to the US’s in 2007?”, and (2) “will rising interest rates lead to significant payment shocks and mortgage defaults among Canadian homeowners?”.


Young"s answer to the first question is as follows:





Our answer is “in some respects, Canada in 2017 and US in 2007 are similar, but in many respects they are not”. One important difference is with respect to the mortgage lending standards prevailing in the two times and places. Exhibit 2 charts an indicator of US lending standards vs. the US house price index, showing that standards were still loosening during 2005-2007 even as house prices were approaching a peak. In 2006, over 40% of US mortgages were funded via the non-agency RMBS market, where no-doc and low-doc lending and usage of “exotic” loan products such as negatively amortizing adjustable rate mortgages  were most common.





By comparison, Canadian banking regulators have generally tightened lending standards since the financial crisis, including reducing maximum LTV ratios and amortization terms, and, more recently, Vancouver and Toronto have introduced foreign buyer taxes to dampen house price growth... Canada’s mortgage delinquency rates have remained structurally lower than the delinquency rates in the US for the past several decades (Exhibit 3). These lower delinquency rates reflect a combination of more conservative underwriting and more lender-friendly mortgage foreclosure laws in Canada. The lower baseline mortgage default rates in Canada, combined with stronger bank capitalization, suggest that a house price decline in Canada of the magnitude experienced in the US during 2007-2011 would likely pose smaller systemic risks than were realised in the US during the financial crisis period.



Another argument from Goldman: household mortgage debt service ratios remain low.





Exhibit 3 shows that delinquency rates in the US had already started trending up by 2007, whereas delinquency rates in Canada remain low, suggesting that Canada’s mortgage market is at least not yet at the same distressed stage as the US’s was in 2007. Similarly, Exhibit 4 shows that the mortgage debt service ratio in US was historically elevated by 2007, whereas the comparable ratio in Canada remains near historically normal levels. Rental vacancy rates and unsold housing inventories are among the other indicators that were already showing stress in the US by 2007, but which still appear healthy in Canada as of 2017.





To this, however, once can simply respond that while mortgage debt service ratios remain low, simply due to sticky low rates, total Canadian household debt service is substantially higher than in the US:



Putting the above together, Goldman says that while a Canadian housing bubble burst would be bad, it would not be quite as bad as what happened in the US a decade ago.


As for the second question, will rising rates leads to payment shocks and a spike in mortgage defaults, here Goldman is less sanguine, even if it contends that the outcome would not be "disastrous":





Whereas backward-looking indicators of the Canada housing market may still appear relatively benign, market observers have expressed concern that rising interest rates will lead to significant stress, since most Canadian mortgages have only 5-year terms and thus will need to be refinanced at higher rates. Our calculations suggest that this risk, while non-negligible, may not be disastrous. As an example, a borrower who took out a 25-year amortization, 5-year term, 4% mortgage for $300K in 2013 would have been paying a monthly principal plus interest payment of $1,584. If this borrower is forced to refinance the remaining $262K balance in 2018 at a higher 6% rate – a fairly extreme scenario – and takes another 25-year amortization loan, the monthly payment would increase to $1,688, just a 7% increase relative to the original loan payment.


...


The payment increase is relatively modest because (a) the rising interest rate leads to a higher interest payment but also to a smaller monthly principal payment; and (b) the original 2013 loan was scheduled to fully amortize by 2038, but the new 2018 mortgage is not scheduled to pay down until 2043. By extending the final amortization date, the payment shock is partly mitigated. We thus do not expect a large pickup in mortgage defaults due to higher payment burdens among existing borrowers.



So while the modest - for now - rate increase won"t lead to a payment "shock", and induce a surge of defaults among existing borrowers, Goldman admits that "higher rates can negatively affect housing affordability for future potential homebuyers" adding that "our previous research in the US and other international housing markets has suggested that if higher rates are associated with a strengthening economy or stronger inflation, then the overall impact on house prices can be limited, but if higher rates are driven by an adverse policy shock, the impact may be more negative."


Considering that Canadian hourly wages have plunged in recent months, it is difficult to make the case that the BOC"s rate hike was warranted, and may indeed by interpreted as an "adverse policy shock"



Goldman tries to spin the reality, suggesting that "In the case of Canada, we expect rising rates to be correlated with a stronger labor market, and thus expect the negative impact on housing affordability to be real but manageable." That said, this "stronger labor market", at least in the form of rising wages, has yet to emerge.


Goldman"s summary:





The recent rapid rise in house prices in Canada presents a risk of eventual over-heating. A model of bust risk that accounts for house price-to-rent ratios, past changes in real house prices, investment-to-GDP ratios, real GDP growth and inflation puts the probability of a 5% or larger downturn in real house prices over the next 5-8 quarters at around 30%. At the same time, we see significant differences between the US housing market in 2007 and the Canadian market in 2017, and for this reason we think it may be early to look for a downturn in Canadian house prices of close to the magnitude seen in the US before the financial crisis.



It was not immediately clear if it is "early to look for a downturn" because of Goldman"s infamous, chronic sellside overoptimism about, well, everything (recall the bank had initially forecast US GDP would grow just shy of 3% by the end of 2018, and now a 2% print appears optimistic), or because Goldman needs some more time to put on Canadian housing shorts for its prop group and its best clients.

Monday, July 17, 2017

Feds Say Condo Involved In NYC's Largest Foreclosure Tied To Nigerian Corruption Case

New York City real estate, particularly the luxury market, is a popular refugee for world’s corrupt, self-dealing public servants and the crooked businessmen who bribe them. China cracked down on wealthy citizens seeking to stash their wealth in international real estate by adding several deterrents to its capital controls earlier this year (Among them, Chinese investors moving money out of the country must now sign a pledge saying it won’t be used to buy real estate, or investment securities). Shortly after, the New York real-estate – literally half a world away – was rattled by a crush of stalled deals.  


So, it’s unsurprising that the mystery behind the largest residential foreclosure auction in NYC history would have this kind of sordid backstory. Last month, we met Kola Aluko, a Nigerian oil magnate and the purported owner of One57’s Apartment 79, a $50 million apartment that will be sold next week in what appears to be the largest foreclosure auction in New York City history.



And now the US government has added a new twist: In a lawsuit filed Friday in Houston by the Justice Department’s Kleptocracy Asset Recovery Initiative, the Feds are seeking to recover $144 million in assets, including proceeds from a luxury condominium on Manhattan’s Billionaires’ Row in New York, which prosecutors claim were spoils from bribes paid for Nigerian oil contracts, according to Bloomberg.


The targets of the suit were none other than Aluko and another Nigerian businessman, Olajide Omokore. However, judging by the government’s price tag, Aluko’s assets – including the One57 condo and Aluko’s $80 million yacht, 213-feet (65 meters) luxury yacht the Galactica Star – appear to be the focus of the suit. In the past, Aluko would frequently rent out his yacht to his friends. In 2015, Jay-Z and Beyonce rented it for the bargain-basement price of $900,000 per week to sail around the Mediterrainean.



The Justice Department alleges that two Nigerian businessmen made corrupt payments to a Nigerian official who oversaw the country’s state-owned oil company in exchange for contracts, according to Bloomberg. The official used her influence to direct contracts to two of their shell companies -- Atlantic Energy Drilling Concepts Nigeria Ltd. and Atlantic Energy Brass Development Ltd. -- through a subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp, according to the complaint. The companies failed to abide by the terms the contracts, yet were permitted to sell more than $1.5 billion worth of Nigerian crude oil, the U.S. alleges. They then laundered the money through the US.





"Corrupt foreign officials and business executives should make no mistake: if illicit funds are within the reach of the United States, we will seek to forfeit them and to return them to the victims from whom they were stolen," Acting Assistant Attorney General Kenneth Blanco said in a statement.



The Justice Department’s recovery lawsuit comes just days before Aluko’s penthouse at One57, one of Manhattan’s most expensive buildings, is scheduled to be sold at a foreclosure auction forced by his mortgage lender, the Luxembourg-based Banque Havilland SA, which said in court filings earlier this year that he failed to pay back the full loan amount in September.


As we’ve previously noted, Aluko took out an "unusually large" ($35.3 million) mortgage with an even more unusual term: one-year.


Aluko’s condo is a full-floor, 6,240-square-foot (580-square-meter) penthouse that was the eighth-priciest sold in the building located at 157 W. 57th Street, just across the street from Carnegie Hall, according to real estate data firm PropertyShark.


Now of course one lawsuit doesn’t necessarily prove that a market is infested with criminality, but the opaque nature of real-estate transactions, and the ease with which buyers and sellers can conceal their true identities behind LLCs, make buying real estate in a market like NYC an attractive option for any would-be money launderer.


And while one foreclosure certainly doesn’t signal that the market is collapsing, there are other more worrying trends in NYC luxury real estate. As we’ve previously noted, buildings like One57 are struggling with unsustainable vacancy rates. To wit: Nearly 40% of apartments in one comparable building remained on the market years after it had opened.



As Bloomberg points out, One57, along with a cluster of ultra-high end luxury buildings around Central Park collectively known as “Billionaire’s Row,” has become a symbol of New York’s luxury-development boom -- and eventual slowdown. The tower, which broke ground in 2009, drew investors willing to pay large sums for lavish residences they rarely lived in, inspiring other developers to build similar offerings, creating an effective “Billionaires" Row” along West 57th Street. One57 still holds the record for the most-expensive residential sale in New York in December 2014 at $100.5 million.


The bribes were paid between 2011 and 2015 to Diezani Alison-Madueke, then Nigeria’s minister for petroleum resources, according to the complaint. The defendants are accused of spending millions to fund a lavish lifestyle for Alison-Madueke. They acquired real estate in London that was used by the minister and her family, and bought her more than $1 million of furniture and artwork from several stores in Houston, Texas, the complaint said.


We wonder: In what tony neigborhood is her apartment?
 

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Meet The Money-Laundering, Nigerian Oil Magnate Behind New York's $50MM Condo Foreclosure

Last night we noted that yet another luxury condo at Manhattan’s One57 tower, a member of “Billionaire’s Row,” a group of high-end towers clustered along the southern edge of Central Park, had gone into foreclosure - the second in the span of a month.  The 6,240-square-foot, full-floor penthouse in question, One57’s Apartment 79, sold for $50.9 million in December 2014, making it the eighth-priciest in the building and likely the largest residential foreclosure in Manhattan"s history.


According to Bloomberg, the owner of the apartment attempted to conceal his/her identity by using a shell company (you know how those kooky billionaires can be) but was able to obtain an "unusually large" mortgage with an even more unusual term: one-year.





In September 2015, the company took out a $35.3 million mortgage from lender Banque Havilland SA, based in Luxembourg. The full payment of the loan was due one year later, according to court documents filed in connection with the foreclosure.



The borrower failed to repay, and now Banque Havilland is forcing a sale to recoup the funds, plus interest.



Of course, it was only a matter of time until the mystery man behind Manhattan"s most recent luxury real estate epic fail was exposed.  As such, meet Nigerian oil magnate, Kola Aluko.




As it turns out, the world renowned, Nigerian-born, billionaire playboy is about $25,000 behind on his property taxes.  But, that is probably the least of his worries as the New York Post points out that he currently wanted by authorities in both Nigeria and Europe for defrauding the Nigerian government out of oil sale profits.





But Aluko has bigger problem, it seems. The 47-year-old tycoon is under investigation in Nigeria and in Europe for alleged money-laundering crimes.



A Nigerian court, according to various reports, tried to freeze Aluko’s assets, including his One57 unit, as part of the alleged scheme to defraud the government of oil sale profits.



Meanwhile, it seems that the only reason Aluko isn"t already in prison is because the Nigerian courts can"t seem to find him to serve papers.  Apparently he"s been hiding out on this 213-foot, $100 million yacht, the Galactica Star, for over a year.




Over the past year, the boat has been spotted making port calls in Cancun, Mexico and Turkey.




Of course, if you"re going to be an international playboy then you need to have rich and famous friends and, as it turns out, rappers Jay-Z and P. Diddy seemed to have fulfilled that role for Aluko.  Back in 2012 the rap duo apparently hosted Aluko"s birthday party in Beverly Hills.  Then, just a few years later in 2015, Jay-Z and wife Beyonce rented Aluko"s mega-yacht for the bargain basement price of just $900,000 per week to sail around the Mediterranean.


Jayz



Well, presumably it was fun while it lasted.

Saturday, June 24, 2017

New York's "Billionaires Row" Suffers Biggest Foreclosure In History

In the latest sign that NYC’s ultra-high end property market is on the verge of imploding after a wave of overly aggressive development, another luxury condo at Manhattan’s One57 tower, a member of “Billionaire’s Row,” a group of high-end towers clustered along the southern edge of Central Park, has gone into foreclosure - the second in the span of a month.


The 6,240-square-foot (580-square-meter) full-floor penthouse in question, One57’s Apartment 79, sold for $50.9 million in December 2014, making it the eighth-priciest in the building.





“It’s probably the most-expensive foreclosure we’ve ever seen in luxury development,” said Donna Olshan, president of high-end Manhattan brokerage Olshan Realty Inc. “I don’t know of a foreclosure that’s larger than that.”



According to Bloomberg, the shell company that purchased the property took out an unusually large mortgage and promised to repay in full a year later.





In September 2015, the company took out a $35.3 million mortgage from lender Banque Havilland SA, based in Luxembourg. The full payment of the loan was due one year later, according to court documents filed in connection with the foreclosure.



The borrower failed to repay, and now Banque Havilland is forcing a sale to recoup the funds, plus interest.



And, in what’s become a strong contender for the “no sh*t” quote of the day, a spokeswoman for Extell Developments, the developer that built One57, said there" s a lesson to be learned from this unfortunate situation.





“This shows that too much leverage is probably not wise,” Anna LaPorte, an Extell spokeswoman, said of the most recent default.



A June 14 auction was scheduled for a 56th-floor apartment at the same tower. That condo was purchased in July 2015 for $21.4 million. Public records have yet to reveal any transfer of ownership for that property.



Investors across the NYC property spectrum should take note; prices in Manhattan and Brooklyn have risen so quickly they’ve effectively pushed marginal buyers out of the market and forced renters to devote a greater share of their income to housing. Today, more than 30% of Americans pay half their income in rent - the highest percentage in decades.



And with more investors in the city concentrating on luxury properties, some ultra-luxury buildings like One57 are struggling with unsustainable vacancy rates of nearly 40%.


Until last month, no apartments on Billionaires’ Row, which also includes 432 Park Ave., had been subject to a foreclosure auction, according to PropertyShark. The loss of a Manhattan residential property to creditors is a rare event, regardless of the unit"s price-tag: Only 27 new residential foreclosures in the borough in the first quarter.


Could this be the start of a trend? We think so. Which leads us to our next question: How, exactly, does one short the luxury real-estate market?


We also look forward to The Left deciding that a probe into this transaction is warranted, just in case it was some complex way to transfer Russian funds to Trump... (only half-kidding).

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Existing Home Sales Hit Decade High As Prices Jump More Than 7%

So much for concerns that rising rates would slam the US real estate market.


According to the NAR, in January, Existing home sales jumped by 3.3%, well above the 1.1% consensus estimate, and more than reversing last month"s revised -1.6% drop. The annuallized pace of sales rose to 5.69 million, above the 5.54 million estimate, and the biggest monthly jump since March 2016. January"s sales pace was 3.8% higher than a year ago (5.48 million) and surpasses November 2016 (5.60 million) as the strongest since February 2007 (5.79 million).


Praising the rebound in housing transactions, NAR"s chief economist Larry Yun said January"s sales gain signals resilience among consumers even in a rising interest rate environment. "Much of the country saw robust sales activity last month as strong hiring and improved consumer confidence at the end of last year appear to have sparked considerable interest in buying a home," he said. "Market challenges remain, but the housing market is off to a prosperous start as homebuyers staved off inventory levels that are far from adequate and deteriorating affordability conditions."


And yet, there remains a glaring disconnect between the housing transactions, and mortgage applications, which as shown in the chart below, have tumbled in recent weeks far below prior years, as a result of rising rates.



The west led housing transaction, with only the midwest posting a 1.5% decline:


  • January existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 5.3 percent to an annual rate of 800,000, and are now 6.7 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $253,800, which is 2.5 percent above January 2016.

  • In the Midwest, existing-home sales decreased 1.5 percent to an annual rate of 1.29 million in January, and are 0.8 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $174,900, up 6.5 percent from a year ago.

  • Existing-home sales in the South in January rose 3.6 percent to an annual rate of 2.31 million, and are now 3.1 percent above January 2016. The median price in the South was $201,400, up 9.2 percent from a year ago.

  • Existing-home sales in the West ascended 6.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.29 million in January, and are now 8.4 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $332,300, up 6.8 percent from January 2016.

The median existing-home price was $228,900, up 7.1% from January 2016 ($213,700). January"s price increase was the fastest since last January (8.1%) and marks the 59th consecutive month of year-over-year gains.



Total housing inventory at the end of January rose 2.4 percent to 1.69 million existing homes available for sale, but was still 7.1% lower than a year ago (1.82 million) and has fallen year-over-year for 20 straight months. Unsold inventory is at a 3.6-month supply at the current sales pace (unchanged from December 2016). Properties typically stayed on the market for 50 days in January, down from 52 days in December and considerably more a year ago (64 days). Short sales were on the market the longest at a median of 108 days in January, while foreclosures sold in 51 days and non-distressed homes took 49 days. Thirty-eight percent of homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month.


Metro areas where listings stayed on the market the shortest amount of time in January were San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif., 43 days; San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif., 47 days; San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif., 55 days; Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash., 57 days; and Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn., Vallejo-Fairfield, Calif., and Greeley, Colo., all at 58 days.


Looking at the composition of buyers, first-time buyers were 33% of sales in January, which is up from 32% both in December and a year ago. NAR"s 2016 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers revealed that the annual share of first-time buyers was 35% . According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate (link is external) for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased slightly in January to 4.15 percent from 4.20 percent in December. The average commitment rate for all of 2016 was 3.65 percent.


Meanwhile, all cash sales continued to rise, and represented 23% of transactions in January, up from 21% in December but down from 26% a year ago. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 15 percent of homes in January, unchanged from December and down from 17 percent a year ago. Fifty-nine percent of investors paid in cash in January.  



For now it remains unclear whether the recent spike in transactions will persist once consumer confidence fades away even as higher mortgage rates remain.  A further challenge to existing homes: the gradual disappearance of Chinese and other foreign buyers, which as discussed before, has had a substantial impact on ultra high end housing.

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

December Existing Home Sales Plunge Most Since 2009, NAR Blames Rate "Surge" & Record Low Inventory

With spiking mortgage rates, and tumbling mortgage applications, it is hardly surprising that existing home sales tumbled in December but the 2.8% plunge is the biggest since July and is the worst decline for December since 2009.


Larry Yun, NAR chief economist, said that while the housing market had its best year since the Great Recession, it ended on a softer note: "Solid job creation throughout 2016 and exceptionally low mortgage rates translated into a good year for the housing market," he said. "However, higher mortgage rates and home prices combined with record low inventory levels stunted sales in much of the country in December." He added that "while a lack of listings and fast rising home prices was a headwind all year, the surge in rates since early November ultimately caught some prospective buyers off guard and dimmed their appetite or ability to buy a home as 2016 came to an end."
 



However, worse is yet to come since these closings come from before rates really exploded.



The median existing-home price for all housing types in December was $232,200, up 4.0 percent from December 2015 ($223,200). December"s price increase marks the 58th consecutive month of year-over-year gains.   


Lawrence Yun"s dour warnings about the future of the housing market in light of surging rates continued when he said that "Housing affordability for both buying and renting remains a pressing concern because of another year of insufficient home construction," said Yun.


"Given current population and economic growth trends, housing starts should be in the range of 1.5 million to 1.6 million completions and not stuck at recessionary levels. More needs to be done to address the regulatory and cost burdens preventing builders from ramping up production."


Yun was also quick to blame the lack of sales on a record low inventory:





Total housing inventory at the end of December dropped 10.8 percent to 1.65 million existing homes available for sale, which is the lowest level since NAR began tracking the supply of all housing types in 1999. Inventory is 6.3 percent lower than a year ago (1.76 million), has fallen year-over-year for 19 straight months and is at a 3.6-month supply at the current sales pace (3.9 months in December 2015).



"Constrained inventory in many areas and climbing rents, home prices and mortgage rates means it"s not getting any easier to be a first-time buyer," said Yun. "It"ll take more entry-level supply, continued job gains and even stronger wage growth for first-timers to make up a greater share of the market."



But ultimately it is a question of deteriorating affordability:





"Housing affordability for both buying and renting remains a pressing concern because of another year of insufficient home construction," said Yun. "Given current population and economic growth trends, housing starts should be in the range of 1.5 million to 1.6 million completions and not stuck at recessionary levels. More needs to be done to address the regulatory and cost burdens preventing builders from ramping up production."



It"s even worse for first time home buyers: ""Constrained inventory in many areas and climbing rents, home prices and mortgage rates means it"s not getting any easier to be a first-time buyer," said Yun. "It"ll take more entry-level supply, continued job gains and even stronger wage growth for first-timers to make up a greater share of the market."


* * *


Needless to say, the NAR was unhappy with Trump"s reversal of the FHA mortgage insurance fee. NAR President William E. Brown, said that by cutting annual premiums from 0.85 percent to 0.60 percent, an FHA-insured mortgage becomes a more viable and affordable option for these buyers.


"Without the premium reduction, we estimate that roughly 750,000 to 850,000 homebuyers will face higher costs and between 30,000 and 40,000 would-be buyers will be prevented from entering the market," he said.


Properties typically stayed on the market for 52 days in December, up from 43 days in November but down from a year ago (58 days). Short sales were on the market the longest at a median of 97 days in December, while foreclosures sold in 53 days and non-distressed homes took 50 days. Thirty-seven percent of homes sold in December were on the market for less than a month.


Somre more details:


  • All-cash sales were 21 percent of transactions in December, unchanged from November and down from 24 percent a year ago. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 15 percent of homes in December, up from 12 percent in November and unchanged from a year ago. Fifty-nine percent of investors paid in cash in December.

  • Distressed sales  — foreclosures and short sales — rose to 7 percent in December, up from 6 percent in November but down from 8 percent a year ago. Five percent of December sales were foreclosures and 2 percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 20 percent below market value in December (17 percent in November), while short sales were discounted 10 percent (16 percent in November).

  • Single-family home sales declined 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million in December from 4.97 million in November, but are still 1.5 percent above the 4.81 million pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $233,500 in December, up 3.8 percent from December 2015.

  • Existing condominium and co-op sales dropped 10.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 units in December, and are now 4.7 percent below a year ago. The median existing condo price was $221,600 in December, which is 5.5 percent above a year ago.

Finally, the regional breadkwon was as follows:


  • Sales In the Northeast slid 6.2 percent to an annual rate of 760,000, but are still 2.7 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $245,900, which is 3.8 percent below December 2015.

  • In the Midwest, existing-home sales decreased 3.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.28 million in December, but are still 2.4 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $178,400, up 4.6 percent from a year ago.

  • Sales In the South in December were at an annual rate of 2.25 million (unchanged from November), and are 0.4 percent above December 2015. The median price in the South was $207,600, up 6.5 percent from a year ago.

  • Sales In the West fell 4.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.20 million in December, and are now 1.6 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $341,000, up 6.0 percent from December 2015.