Showing posts with label fertility. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fertility. Show all posts

Monday, December 4, 2017

America’s Puerile Preoccupation: Sex, Sex, Sex and more Sex!

Via The Daily Bell


As long as boys and girls exist, there will always be touching, ogling, improper comments, and even a little behind-the-scenes hanky-panky. There is nothing, absolutely nothing anyone can do about this short of neuter the population. It is quite normal for boys and girls to meet and inspect each other, regardless of age or proclivity. We must never forget that this has been occurring ever since Eve presented Adam with a full-disclosure bite from her apple. In fact, today like yesterday, sophisticated adults still generously use their sex appeal in one way or another to finalize a deal.


Sex is the fuel that makes the world go around. It is a need too basic to suppress, regardless of how unorthodox and self-destructive the act may seem or even be. Referencing it in its many variations has brightened many smart salons and board rooms with fresh, giddy spins since the beginning of civilization. To watch the sanctimonious right or left attack each other over indiscretions, however modest, horrifies me. You would think a touch, a witty innuendo or an unwanted kiss was grounds for capital punishment.


As long as no one is held captive to the act and can walk away from the incident intact, it should be regarded for what it is, a temporary annoyance or an exercise in bad taste, which, as shocking as it may seem, we have all been guilty of at one time or another.


When I hear of adults confessing and shedding painful tears over some harmless act that may have occurred years ago, I become suspicious. If they were so severely damaged psychologically or physically by some unwanted assault, why didn’t they create a trail of complaints before surprising everyone years later with their accusations?


Regardless, unwanted sexual activity is a serious problem when someone is raped, drugged, injured, or knocked up. And it becomes a deadly sin when the predator molests or kidnaps a child or an adult in order to gratify some evil or depraved need, either for profit or pleasure. But to accuse someone of violating them years later without supportive evidence is, in my opinion, a vicious attempt at character assassination.


As a society, we have abandoned decency by allowing horrendous sex acts to become the norm. To understand how this has gotten so out of hand, we need to step back a moment in time. Wasn’t the sixties and seventies the beginning of the sex revolution? Wasn’t that the period in history when sex in all its variations broke out of the closet and began to shake up America – with its music, its movies, and even its tasteless sex education classes in the schools?


For many who survived, it was an era of sad beginnings in which the young tuned in, dropped out, and flew high. Because of adults like Harvard University’s Psychologist Timothy O’Leary, many of his students under the influence of LSD (and probably other drugs as well) went on terrifying journeys of all kinds without a return ticket.


As a result, many teenagers (and adults) were prematurely robbed of their innocence and introduced to high-voltage fornication (and drugs) everywhere – in the streets, in the movies, and in the basement with the janitor. The sixties and seventies launched a new era, in which the entertainment industry accelerated the corruption of Americans with salacious and vulgar music, dance, and sexual gymnastics on film. In one way or another, the entire American population succumbed and became victims of a New Age, an in-your-face, get-it-on revolt against propriety. To have escaped unscathed, you would have had to have been locked up in a cloister with neutered monks or nuns numbing your mind with fire and brimstone sermons.


Let me emphasize: no one escaped the sexual revolution. In one way or another, we all became victims – and for some, unfortunately, we remained victims.


Nevertheless, I believe breaking free of our puritanical overdose, which once dulled our great nation, was a good move. But instead of allowing our children to grow up with grace and discretion, we threw them into a hot cauldron of excess, where many remained, trapped. What we are seeing today, over 40 years later, are the angry results. The lynch mobs are everywhere, and they are ready to destroy anyone guilty of any indiscretion. No one really seems to be interested in learning what’s behind this change. The spectators are having too much fun watching the mighty fall to concern themselves about what the purpose of it all is.


In my novel (and also in my published play) Teacher of the Year, I playfully satirize one of the major groups responsible for damaging our children, specifically, the educators. Although collectively educators are doing considerable mental damage to our children through the process of education, they don’t deserve full credit for what is happening today. For this, we need to give some of that credit to our mass communication system, which carefully nourishes sultry ideas that often lead to horrendous acts.



To bring a halt to this societal suicide, we need to provide our children with a responsible education and environment that will allow them to mature gracefully into mature adults with a healthy respect for their libido. And we must stop classifying as criminal what in some cases is innocent and normal behavior between the sexes.


___


Joe David is the author of numerous articles and six books; among them are two novels on education, Teacher of the Year andThe Fire Withinwww.bfat.com

Thursday, November 23, 2017

Millennials Have Ushered In The "Baby Bust" Cycle

Negative Population Growth, Inc., has issued a November report warning that America is no longer making enough babies to keep pace with deaths. The report blames, the ‘baby bust’ phase on the millennial generation (1980-2000), who are having children at record low rates.



Their attitudes towards marriage, procreation, and materialism changed dramatically after the Great Recession when the economies of the world came to a screeching halt. After a decade of excessive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The millennials have been forced to take out an excessive amount of debt such as auto loans, consumer debt, and student loans in an era of wage stagnation. This has fundamentally changed the game for millennials and perhaps changed the course of the United States. The implications of falling birth rates in a low growth economic environment coupled with massive amounts of debt - is a perfect storm that will lead to the next crisis. 


Falling birth rates in the United States have been classified of what some call the ‘baby bust’. Like any bubble, there must be a bust cycle and when it comes to births in the United States — that time, is now. According to the report, some demographers are “freaked out by the falling birth rate, an occupational hazard for people who spend their professional lives scrutinizing population statistics”. As the demographic winds shift, the United States is preparing for a ‘Japanification’ period of lower birth rates and a much old generation to strain the economic and healthcare systems.


According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the number of babies born declined by 338,000 or 8.7% between 2007 and 2016. Over the period, the national fertility rate declined from 69.3 to a historic low of 62.0 in 2016. For more color, the peak was in 1960 at 118 after World war II, ever since it’s been in decline.



As a result, the national fertility rate (all ages) broke a bearish flag (chart below) and fell -11% between 2007 and 2016. To keep pace with deaths, moms need to have 2.1 births, but that is not the case today with 1.8.


“The fertility rate decline is driven entirely by millennial mothers in their teens and twenties,” said the report.


 


“Birth rates for all age groups of women under 30 fell to record lows in 2016,” it added.



Besides poor economic conditions and a transitioning economy, the report added the increased “availability and effectiveness of sex education and contraceptives for males and females” have played a large role in reducing the birth rate for millennials.



Despite demographers freaking about out by the falling birth rates, the report offers an insight into how others are dealing with the negative trend,




Economists, however, have made peace with the notion that a shrinking population is not necessarily a bad thing. While GDP may slow, a better measure of the country’s economic health – GDP per capita – can benefit.


 


This is especially relevant in a world where robots, AI, and other technologies threaten the jobs of many Americans




The United States is not alone in the demographic shift of less birth rates, as it’s evident below. Major developed economies and emerging growth economies are feeling similar pain.



The report says “we have been here before” relating today’s economic-stress to the 1930s and the late 1970s coinciding with ultra low brith rates for the younger generation. Interesting enough, the report asks: Is it different this time? 


As the paper suggests– it is different and millennials are increasingly delaying kids or just outright abandoning altogether.


The report lists four reasons why this time is different:


  • A 2016 study of Census data from Pew Research found nearly one-third of young adults (ages 18-34) live with their parents, slightly more than the proportion that live with a spouse or partner. Not since record keeping began in 1880 has living at home for this age group outpaced living with a spouse. “They’re concentrating more on school, careers and work and less focused on forming new families, spouses or partners and children,” Richard Fry, lead author of the Pew report, said of millennials. Although student debt is often blamed, it may not be the dominant factor: the trend is stronger for those without a college education.

  • When it comes to marriage, millennials say “I don’t” more than any previous generation. Research by the Urban Institute finds that if current trends continue, 30.7% of millennial women will remain single by age 40, approximately twice the share of their Gen-X counterparts. The data show similar trends for males. Marriage rates fell drastically during the Great Recession, but they had been declining for years prior to that event. At this point even a return to pre-recession levels will not prevent marriage rates among millennial women from falling below those of Gen-Xers by age 40.4 Ironically, the aversion of millennial females to marriage may reflect their economic strength vis a vis males: “Sharp declines in the earning power of non-college males combined with the economic self-sufficiency of women — rising educational attainment, falling gender gap and greater female control over fertility choices — have reduced the economic value of marriage for women.”

  • A cross-generational study conducted at Wharton School of Business found more than half (58%) of millennial female undergraduates do not plan to have children. That is nearly three-times the 22% of Gen-X female undergraduates who did not want children when surveyed in 1992. Results were similar for male students. (The researchers compared surveys of the Wharton graduating class of 1992 and 2012.) While Gen-X women felt “motherhood fulfilled their need to help others” millennial females believe they can serve the greater need by succeeding at work. For millennial men “doing good” is increasingly connected to creating greater balance between work and family. Not surprisingly, they are less likely to think of themselves as the sole breadwinner. Even millennials who do want children say they do not see a clear path toward it.

  • Immigrants are the wild card. They account for 15% of U.S. millennials, up from 6% of the prior generation.8 Although birth rates for foreign-born millennials are generally above those of native-born, a recent study by the Center for Immigration Studies finds that the gap is narrowing.9 From 2008 to 2015: birth rates for foreign-born women ages 15 to 19 fell 50.6% versus a 43% drop for native-born in that age cohort; birth rates for immigrant women 20 to 24 fell 40.5% versus a 28.5% decline for native-born. The Total Fertility Rate – a measure of the number of children a woman can be expected to have in her lifetime based on current patterns – fell 21.5% for immigrant women and 15.4% for native-born women over that period. The implication is clear: When it comes to family size, immigrant millennials have embraced the “smaller is better” ethos of the larger, native-born millennial community. That is good news to those of us who believe a smaller population is in the national interest.

Welcome to the new normal: Millennials will be the first generation that the American dream will most likely not be attainable, as show on the home ownership rate below. Since the real estate boom of the 2000s, homeownership rate for people under thirty-five has literally fallen off a cliff.  The report explores a number of factors of why this trend exists: student debt and the lingering impact of the Great Recession… 



Another new normal: With the introduction of Uber and Lyft fewer millennials are driving– leading to a shake up in the auto industry. The conventional wisdom among automakers are that millennials will unlock a new tranche of demand, but that narrative is going cold as the sharing economy disrupts.



Meanwhile, General Mills in 2016 ran a national advertising campaign targeting the millennial generation titled: ‘make more babies’… The type of conditioning is self-evident of one large corporation that is clearly aware of the low birth rate trend.



The Washington Examiner sums it all up,




The report explains the shift to smaller families is driven by the poor economy, broken American Dream, and job losses millennials witnessed growing up. 




 









Friday, November 3, 2017

The End Is Near... Depopulation Is Out Of Control... So Buy Stocks (Seriously)

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,


The world economy is premised on a ludicrous idea - that Asia, then India, and then Africa will continue to drive economic growth. 


So as not to turn this article into a book, lets consider this idea focusing on East Asia consisting of China, Japan, North and South Korea, Taiwan, and minor others.  This region consists of 1.6 billion persons or about 22% of earths inhabitants.  However, since 2008, it is this region that is responsible for nearly 100% of the global increase in demand for oil (best proxy available for true economic growth) and having primarily driven global economic growth.  My point in this article is that the growth in this region is entirely a credit driven supernova against collapsing populations which will never be able to fill the 100+ million newly added apartments or pay back the debt incurred to achieve the "growth".  Contrarily, from an investor standpoint, this weakness is the green light to "invest" as aggressively as possible because as long as central banks exist, they have your back.


Consider, since 2000, China"s debt outstanding has risen something like 14x"s to 17x"s or from about $2 trillion to something between $30 to $35 trillion presently.  As for Japan, who knows Japan"s true debt as Japan"s central bank is buying much or most of the debt and essentially throwing it in a black hole, never to be seen again(...monetization with a capital "M").


Why the massive debt creation and central bank monetization?  Depopulation with a capital "D".  First off, consider the collapse in fertility rates for these nations (chart below).  To maintain a constant, zero growth population, the childbearing population needs to produce 2.1 children in order to replace themselves (dashed line, below).  However, as the chart below shows, E. Asian nations have seen negative fertility rates for decades (Japan turning negative in "74, S. Korea in "83, China in "92, and N. Korea in "96).



Looking at the fertility rates from 2000 (chart below), some minor rises in fertility rates have been noticed in China since "00 and since "05 in Japan and S. Korea.  However, despite the minor upticks, all nations remain solidly negative and well below the 2.1 zero decline threshold.



For those expecting East Asia to continue driving global economic growth, I have a very big problem for you.  East Asia is in the midst of a population collapse.  The East Asian childbearing population, after rising by 366 million or +125% from 1950 until peaking in 2005, is now collapsing nearly as fast.  By 2030, those of childbearing age will have fallen by 180 million or a 27% decline (chart below).  By 2050, a clean halving of the childbearing population is likely.



So, the size of the childbearing population is back where it was in 1980 and by 2050 will be almost back to its 1960 size...but hypercritically, that population in 1960 was having approximately 5 children per family versus the 2020 or 2050 versions having somewhere around 1.6.  It is unlikely anything can be done to stop the depopulation daisy chain in East Asia and the economic collapse is already assured.  The collapse in demand against record quantities of assets is a mismatch for the ages...but of course central banks will continue to step in and monetize as long as possible.


As for the rest of the population, the growth among the heart of the regions economy, the 20 to 65 year olds, peaked in 1990 and has now indefinitely turned negative (falling something like 12 million from 2015 to 2020...and hundreds of millions fewer consumers, home buyers, tax payers by 2050).  Even the growth among the 65+ year old cadre will peak about 2035 before beginning to rapidly decelerate (change per five year periods, chart below).



Lastly, even growth among the old will be shifting to the very oldest as the bulk (and then the entirety) of the growth will be among the 75+ year olds (change per five year periods, chart below).



As for investors, this is your last and greatest chance.  The depopulation issue is not confined within East Asia.  The chart below shows the diving global fertility rate falling by more than 50% since peak fertility in the mid 1960"s.



It is a global phenomenon exhibited nearly everywhere but Sub-Saharan Africa.  The chart below shows global fertility rates are universally collapsing and it is nearly solely Africa that continues the global population increases...at least for now.



Even India and/or the Middle East / North Africa (MENA) are likewise seeing collapsing fertility rates. India"s fertility rate is almost sure to be negative by 2020.  There truly are no green shoots from a population growth perspective.



Central bankers will continue to "fake it" until they "make it".  Obviously, they never will "make it" but a select few will get absolutely rich beyond belief from central banker "efforts" as they continue to "fake it" as long as possible.  So, invest accordingly.









Demographic Dysphoria Looms As Scientists Discover Sulfur Dioxide Lowers Sperm Count

Back in June, we explained how a demographic dysphoria looms for Central Bankers as doctors discovered sperm counts in western men have plummeted nearly 60% over the last four decades.



In an era of depopulation, Econimica’s Chris Hamiliton noted, the next business cycle recession will be unending and is very likely to run years into decades and perhaps a century or more.


We also expanded on the idea of a declining population already indebted with record debt levels and zero interest rates is a perfect cocktail for disaster.


The global problem identified in one chart provided to us via Cris Hamiliton shows the annual growth of the 0-64yr/old population of the combined OECD nations (most the EU, US, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Japan, S. Korea, Australia / New Zealand) plus China, Brazil, and Russia.


To sum up the chart, all the population growth responsible for economic expansion in the past half century is coming to an end in 2018.



So, there has to be an explanation why developed and emerging market males are experiencing lower sperm counts...


With that in mind, we think-we found- the answer in China, as a new report links sulfur dioxide to lower sperm count.


According to Yuewei Liu, an environmental epidemiologist at Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control & Prevention, suggests that poor semen quality accounts for 90% of male infertility. Impaired semen clearly interferes with conception, but it is also often an indicator of other health problems. 


Chemical & Engineering News outlines how Liu’s clinical test demonstrates sulfur dioxide exposure to sperm development could impact sperm quality:




So Liu and his team decided to study semen samples collected from 1,759 men in Wuhan, China. They had all visited Tongji Hospital from 2013 to 2015 seeking help to conceive a child with their partners. The researchers measured sperm concentration, total sperm, and total motile sperm in each sample, controlling for factors that might affect semen quality such as age and smoking. Then the scientists drew on government data from nine air quality monitoring stations in Wuhan—a transportation hub and manufacturing powerhouse—to estimate exposure to air pollutants such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ozone. Liu employed a model that analyzed the location of the monitoring stations in relationship to each man’s home to predict individual daily pollutant exposures. Because human sperm develops over 90 days, the researchers calculated pollution exposures for the 90 days prior to semen collection so they could look at key periods of sperm development.


 


When Liu and the team used a statistical test to rate semen quality against increasing air pollution, they found no impact from NO2, CO or O3. However, for each 10 µg/m3 increase in SO2exposure during the first stage of sperm development, sperm concentration dropped by 6.5%, total sperm count by 11.3%, and total motile sperm by 13.2%, Liu says. Levels of SO2 during the later stages of sperm development did not appear to impact sperm quality. The annual mean SO2 concentrations in Wuhan during the study period ranged from a high of 33 µg/m3 in 2013 to 18 µg/m3 in 2015. In the U.S., annual mean SO2 concentration was less than 5 µg/m3 in 2013.


 


“Our results indicate for the first time that SO2 exposure may lower semen quality by affecting the earliest stage of sperm development, 70 to 90 days before ejaculation,” Liu says. He speculates that SO2 could impair sperm by triggering oxidative stress and damage to DNA. “Given the limited evidence from epidemiological and in vivo studies, further studies are needed to confirm the association of NO2, CO and O3 with semen quality,” Liu adds. He recommends caution in generalizing the findings to other populations since the men were all from one city in China.




Bénédicte Jacquemin, an epidemiologist at the health research institute ISGlobal in Barcelona, says “even though the study was limited to one city, this paper adds evidence to the existing literature showing a downward trend in sperm concentration and count with increasing exposure to air pollution”. 


Explained: Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is one of a group of highly reactive gasses known as oxides of sulfur. It is a colorless gas with a pungent and suffocating odor. It is a common air pollutant found in many parts of the world...



Global Sulfur Dioxide Monitoring map provided by NASA outlines many developed and emerging economies are currently experiencing some form of sulfur dioxide release. Here on the east coast of the United States, we are swamped with power plant expulsion of SO2, so you might want to get checked out...



Bottomline: decades of economic progres in developed and emerging markets have had its advantages, but rarely do we hear of the disadvantages in a scientific way, as what we have just learned: sulfur dioxide is a sperm killer. 









Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Economic Recovery - But For Who?

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,


How to judge the effectiveness of the economic recovery since 2008 is a challenge?


Many laud the Federal Reserve for it"s actions to stave off a possible depression.  The Federal Reserve"s policies have certainly helped to promote new record highs in financial assets across the spectrum.  These policies have resulted in a great rise in household net worth yet has created the fewest net new full time jobs and real income increases since WWII.  The chart below shows the household net worth (the combined valuation of all privately held stock, real estate, bonds, etc.) as a percentage of disposable income (what is left after paying taxes) and calls out the decelerating full time job creation.



But as Ray Dalio noted yesterday HERE, the recovery is only a recovery for the wealthy.  As the chart below from the Fed"s own Survey of Consumer Finances shows, all the record growth in household net worth has gone to the top 20% of income earners since 2007 while the remainder have seen declining net worth.



A means to detail the impact of this lopsided recovery is the record low US fertility rate.  During each of the previous run-ups in HHNW, there was a parallel rise in the fertility rate as young adults felt more confident and capable of forming or growing a family.  However, since 2007, the collapsing US fertility rate vs. surging HHNW puts the truth of who is recovering in stark contrast.



And below, the US fertility rate vs. all publicly traded US equities represented by the Wilshire 5000.  Clearly, the recovery was not a recovery for those of childbearing age but in fact an ongoing depression.



The Federal Reserve is protecting, enabling, and rewarding a shrinking number simply for being asset holders (not for doing anything with those assets) while punishing the growing majority for having few or no assets... and ensuring the vast majority never will be asset owners as asset prices surge versus stagnant wages. 


This is all because a flawed economic model premised on perpetual population growth (turning into consumer growth) has now gone off the tracks as growth of the consumer class is collapsing.


The chart below shows annual yoy US 15+yr/old population growth broken down by age groups.  Dark green is growth in 15-24yr/olds, aqua blue 25-54yr/olds, yellow 55-64yr/olds, and red is the growth in 65+yr/olds.  The deceleration of growth among the 15-54yr/old segment from the late 1980"s until growth ceased in 2007 should be pretty obvious.  However, both the quantity and quality of population growth, particularly among the 55-64yr/old cadre (in yellow) is thinning out...this is leaving all population growth coming among the 65+ and 75+yr/old segments.  Periodic spikes in chart are "one time" Census adjustments, not true population growth spikes.



The portion of the population growing is so important because average income and spending peak as the head of the household hits 45-54yrs/old and begins to really decelerate once the head of household hits 65yrs/old.  By the time the head reaches 75yr/olds, their average income and spending are halved and their willingness to use credit to amplify their consumption collapses (chart below).



Below, a close-up of the US 15+yr/old annual yoy population change since 2001.  Take a close look at the dynamics that led up to and culminated in the 2008 "great financial crisis" (first dashed circle).  Compare that to the dynamics since "08 really intensifying now in 2017.  I"m pretty sure the farce that is the present moon shot in asset prices (with central bank thumbs, elbows, and who knows what else on the scale) has aserything to do with this.



Lastly, the collapse of the 20-65yr/old population growth across N. America (US/Canada) is only accelerating and most if not all population growth will be among the 65+yr/old population (data from US Census and UN).



While presidents and political parties have swept in and out of "power", the Fed hasn"t changed a bit for decades and is protecting the wealthiest 20% of families (though really it"s more like the top 1% to 2% truly raking in the benefits) and punishing the other 80% holding minimal or no assets. 


And America"s aging population will not allow America to grow her way out of this hole. 


Only an outright, "revolutionary" change from the current paradigms and removal of "powers that be" will save the bottom 80% from watching the American dream race ever further away.  But of course, better make sure any "new boss" isn"t the same or even worse than the "old boss".









Saturday, July 29, 2017

Demographic Dysphoria Looms As Doctors Discover Sperm Counts In Western Men Plummeted Nearly 60%

Population growth is responsible for the majority of GDP growth...so a downturn in population growth matters...particularly when population growth shifts from wealthy or developing nations to the poorest.  I"m not describing something that may happen in the future...I"m describing what has already happened that is continuing to send progressively larger tsunamis swamping the world economy and has the central bankers doing everything and anything to try to sustain the unsustainable.


Which means, as Econimica"s Chris Hamilton recently noted, the next business cycle recession will be unending and is very likely to run years into decades and perhaps a century or more.  A declining population already indebted with record debt and zero interest rates will consume less...meaning overcapacity and excess inventories will never be fully cleared before the next downturn...and on and on and on.


But the absence of a growing consumer base isn"t just a US issue...this is a global problem.  The annual growth of the 0-64yr/old population of the combined OECD nations (most the EU, US, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Japan, S. Korea, Australia / New Zealand) plus China, Brazil, and Russia show the growth that has driven nearly all economic growth has come to an end...and begins declining from here on. 



And when importers are shrinking, exporters have no one to export to...and on and on and on.  The depopulation we are now facing is not simply a demographic issue that so many believe; the end of growth is the start of the SHTF scenario in which we now find ourselves.  While this situation offers short term nirvana to investors, the economic repercussions are ultimately disastrous.


And it may be about to get even worse.



As TheAntiMedia.org reports, According to a new analysis published Tuesday, sperm counts in Western men have plummeted nearly 60 percent over the last four decades. Though researchers say the specific drivers behind the trend will require further scientific investigation, current data suggest a link between the sharp decline and living in the industrialized world.


“The results are quite shocking,” Hagai Levine, an epidemiologist from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told The Guardian. Levine led the international team of researchers, who examined 185 individual studies conducted between 1973 and 2011.


The analysis, published in the medical journal Human Reproduction Update, additionally revealed that on average, Western men’s sperm concentration — the number of sperm within a semen ejaculate — is falling 1.4 percent a year. Added up, that calculates to an overall drop of more than 50 percent since the early 1970s.


“This is a classic under the radar huge public health problem that is really neglected,” said Levine. The team notes in its report that recent studies have shown an association between poor sperm counts and overall morbidity and mortality.


Unlike with Western nations, the team found no similar trend among the male populations of less-developed countries, such as those in Africa and South America.


“Therefore,” the team writes“sperm count may sensitively reflect the impacts of the modern environment on male health throughout the life course.” Researchers acknowledge, however, that far fewer studies have been conducted in those nations and that more data needs to be compiled before a final conclusion can be drawn.


While the scientific community seems to agree that the Western trend is likely being driven by a confluence of factors, one member of the team, Professor Shanna Swan of the Ichan School of Medicine in New York, told the Independent that the lack of declining sperm counts in less-industrialized nations is something that can’t be ignored.





“The fact that the decline is seen in Western countries strongly suggests that chemicals in commerce are playing a causal role in this trend, she said.



Just as startling as the trend, says Professor Richard Sharpe of Edinburgh University, is the fact that it shows no sign of slowing down. Speaking to The Independent, Sharpe, who was not involved with the research, said:





“As the authors point out, the continuous nature of the decline is of as much concern as the decline itself, given that we still do not know what lifestyle, dietary or chemical exposures might have caused this decrease.”



Calling the trend “real beyond any reasonable doubt,” Sharpe says that with more and more women wanting to have babies later in life when conception is considerably more difficult, there now exists a “double whammy for couple fertility” in Western societies.





“Therefore, looking ahead,” he said, “I can only conclude that couple infertility is set to increase. Hopefully, this new study will serve as a wake-up call for health and research authorities as well as for the public, and for young people in particular.”


Saturday, July 1, 2017

America's Fertility Rate Falls To Record Low

The US isn"t yet grappling with the economic disaster that is a shrinking popuation - unlike Japan. Though it"s starting to look like a not-too-distant possibility. US birthrates fell to yet another historic low in 2016 as a whirlwind of economic and cultural factors inspire more women to delay, or forgo, having children. According to provisional data for the fourth quarter provided by the CDC, the US birthrate has declined to 62 births per 1000 women – its lowest level on record, and down from 62.5 in 2015.


This is especially troubling because demographers worry that a dwindling birth rate will hurt economic growth and tax revenues needed to fund transfer payments to a growing elderly population, as more members of the baby boomer generation age into retire.


The CDC did not say why the birth rate is declining. But according to Axios, research and surveys have shown several reasons, including wider availability of birth control, personal economic instability from student loans or other debt, women focused on launching a career before starting a family, and a growing acceptance that not everyone wants to have children.


If the Trump administration achieves higher economic growth, it’s unlikely to do so fast enough to support the mandated 9% increase in entitlement spending for older Americans without more deficit spending. Trump says he intends to preserve Social Security and Medicare spending levels.


The highest birthrates are now seen among women aged 30-34. Previously, the highest rate had been for women aged 25-29, which fell to 101.9 in 2016.




Chart courtesy of Axios


Furthermore, as Statista notes, teenage pregnancy is in continual decline in the United States. As preliminary data released in a newreport by the National Centre for Health Statistics on Friday reveals, the birth rate of mothers in the 15-19 age group dropped to a record low of 20.3, amounting to 209,480 births in 2016. Compared to 2015, this is a decrease of almost 9% and even 62% when compared to 1996.


Conversely, birth rates of women aged 40-44 are on the rise: While it stood at 6.8 in 1996, the provisional birth rate for this age group is 11.4 births per 1,000 women in 2016, which accounts for an increase of 4% compared to the previous year.


Infographic: Teen Birth Rate at Its Lowest Level in Twenty Years | Statista


You will find more statistics at Statista


Here are a few other interesting data points from the CDC, courtesy of Axios:


  • The CDC estimates the fertility rate in 1960 was about 118 births per 1,000 women, or almost double what it is today.

  • Despite the record low birth rate, more than 3.94 million babies were born in 2016, which was about 37,000 fewer than 2015.

  • The highest birth rate is now among women aged 30-34 at 102.6 births per 1,000 women. Previously, the highest rate had been for women aged 25-29, which fell to 101.9 in 2016.

  • U.S. births by race origin of the mother: 52% white, 23% Hispanic, 14% black, 6% Asian, 1% Native American/native of Alaska, Hawaii or Pacific Islands.

* * *


Economists worry that if birthrates continue to decline, America’s economy will enter a period of stagnant growth like that experienced by Japan over the past two decades. As we reported last year, the problem of falling fertility in Japan, which at 1.4 births per woman, has one of the lowest fertility rate in the developed world, is so severe, that Japan"s lawmakers have decided to take action.  Late last year, Japan’ cabinet approved a record $830 billion spending budget for fiscal 2017, which includes child-rearing support. However, the birth rate in the US remains positive, while Japan"s population is shrinking.




However, at this rate, the local population may not need the free money in the not too distant future. The only hope, as in the case of many European nations, is that a surge in immigration will offset the natural decline of the domestic population, whose average age has never been higher...


Friday, June 16, 2017

6 Benefits Of Shilajit For Men

6 Benefits Of Shilajit For Men | man-running | Natural Medicine Special Interests


Men who live and work in the mountains are known for their strength and endurance, and it appears there’s more to it than simply the mountain air. Shilajit, pronounced shil-ah-jeet, is an organic tar-like substance that naturally occurs in mountains around the globe, from the Himalayas to the Andes. It may not sound tasty, but as you’ll see in a moment, it works. Ayurvedic doctors began using it hundreds of years ago for its potent health-supportive properties.


6 Benefits of Shilajit for Men’s Health


Shilajit contains several potent substances including antioxidants and humic and fulvic acid. The plant contains over 80 minerals that support the body, and many have an incredible effect on a man’s health. If you’re a man, no matter where you live, you’ll want to look into shilajit. Here are 6 health benefits of Shilajit for men that will hopefully convince you:


1. Supports Fertility



A study gave 60 men suffering from infertility shilajit twice daily for 90 days. At the end of the trial period, sperm counts in the men increased by more than 60%, and sperm activity improved by 12% or more. [1] This supports what Ayurvedic doctors have known for centuries. Any man dealing with infertility should consider this safe, natural alternative to address his condition.


2. Promotes Testosterone Levels Naturally


It does more than increase the number and health of a man’s ‘swimmers.’ Men who take shilajit enjoy a boost to their testosterone levels, and a man needs higher testosterone levels to protect muscle tissue, keep fat off, and maintain a better overall mood and thinking.


3. Enhances Performance


Tradition holds men who take shilajit have more energy and feel generally better. It could be the mountain air, or it could be the nutrient density of shilajit. Researchers have determined shilajit acts at the cellular level to improve energy production at its source, the mitochondria. [2] When your cells are nourished like this, you feel like more awake, your recover faster, and you have what it takes to go that extra mile.


4. Protects the Heart


A recent study using animal models tested how well shilajit protects the heart. The animals who received the hebr showed less cardiovascular damage, with researchers concluding the effect must come from more than simply its antioxidant activity. [3]


5. Supports Memory


Increased testosterone levels play an important role in how well you think. But researchers have identified a special effect created by small molecules called dibezno-alpha-pyrones. These molecules prevent the breakdown of the brain chemicals needed for memory. [4] Other studies report the fulvic acid in shilajit appears to help against some causes of Alzheimer’s disease. [5]


6. Encourages Healthy Aging


Studies report shilajit’s antioxidant activity protects against cellular damage, and it’s this cellular damage that speeds the aging process in your heart, lungs, liver, and skin. The fulvic acid in shilajit delivers antioxidants and minerals directly to cells where they’re needed. This keeps them safe against free radical damage and accelerated aging.


A Final Thought


When it comes to taking shilajit, make sure you get the real stuff. If it’s solid at room temperature, you’ve got a hold of something that is of questionable quality. Shilajit should taste bitter, have a brownish-blackish color and melt in your hand.


Have you tried Shilajit? What did you notice? Leave a comment and let us know!


References:


  1. Biswas TK1, Pandit S, Mondal S, Biswas SK, Jana U, Ghosh T, Tripathi PC, Debnath PK, Auddy RG, Auddy B. Clinical evaluation of spermatogenic activity of processed Shilajit in oligospermia. Andrologia. 2010 Feb;42(1):48-56. doi: 10.1111/j.1439-0272.2009.00956.x.

  2. Surapaneni DK1, Adapa SR, Preeti K, Teja GR, Veeraragavan M, Krishnamurthy S. Shilajit attenuates behavioral symptoms of chronic fatigue syndrome by modulating the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and mitochondrial bioenergetics in rats. J Ethnopharmacol. 2012 Aug 30;143(1):91-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jep.2012.06.002.

  3. Joukar S1, Najafipour H, Dabiri S, Sheibani M, Sharokhi N. Cardioprotective effect of mumie (shilajit) on experimentally induced myocardial injury. Cardiovasc Toxicol. 2014 Sep;14(3):214-21. doi: 10.1007/s12012-014-9245-3.

  4. Mao Z1, Sun W1, Fu L1, Luo H1, Lai D1, Zhou L2. Natural dibenzo-?-pyrones and their bioactivities. Molecules. 2014 Apr 22;19(4):5088-108. doi: 10.3390/molecules19045088.

  5. Carrasco-Gallardo C1, Guzmán L, Maccioni RB. Shilajit: a natural phytocomplex with potential procognitive activity. Int J Alzheimers Dis. 2012;2012:674142. doi: 10.1155/2012/674142.

Friday, April 21, 2017

Greeks Need To Start Having Babies Again Or Face Financial Oblivion

Authored by Narjas Zatat via Indy100.com,


People in Greece can’t afford to have more than one child, and many are opting to have none at all.



Fertility doctor Minas Mastrominas tells the New York Times that some women have decided not to conceive, and single-child parents have been asking him to destroy their remaining embryos.


He said:





After eight years of economic stagnation, they’re giving up on their dreams.



It isn’t just Greece suffering low birth rates. In fact the trend spreads to most of Europe, with Spain, Portugal and Italy also reporting dangerously low rates.






(Picture: Jakub Marian)




Why is this happening?


Unemployment continues to be a serious issue in Greece. Rates are slightly lower than in 2016 when they were 23.9 per cent, but are still very high at 23.5 per cent.


The slump has affected women more, with unemployment rates at 27 per cent compared to 20 per cent of men.


Child tax breaks and subsidies for large families have decreased, and the country stands at having to lowest budget in the EU for family and child benefits.



 


Women in the workforce.


During the height of the crisis, women postponed childbirth in favour of working. As the years dragged on, the rate of fertility decreased, making it biologically more difficult to conceive.


Additionally, gender equality came to a standstill, and many women of ‘childbearing age’ were denied employment, or had their contract changed to part time involuntarily, as soon as they got pregnant. 


What is the impact of low birth rates?


One of the most prominent areas that will be detrimentally affected is pensions and the welfare system. 


Additionally, according to Eurostat, such low birth rates – under 2.1 – could create a demographic disaster.


This will have a knock-on effect on pensions, with fewer young people working. 


Reduced pensions for grandparents, who traditionally took care of the family"s children means that parents will have to reach into their dwindling budget in order to pay for child care.


All of these circumstances provides an unwelcoming environment for having children, creating a spiralling drop in birth rates.


HT The New York Times

Friday, March 10, 2017

Japan's Demographic Time Bomb Keeps Ticking

Via Daniel Mitchell of The Foundation for Economic Education,


When I warn about the fiscal and economic consequences of America’s poorly designed entitlement programs (as well as the impact of demographic changes), I regularly suggest that the United States is on a path to become Greece.


Because of Greece’s horrible economy, this link has obvious rhetorical appeal.


But there’s another nation that may be a more accurate “role model” of America’s future. This other country, like the United States, is big, relatively rich, and has its own currency.



For these and other reasons, in an article for The Hill, I suggest that Japan is the nation that may offer the most relevant warning signs. I explain first that Japan shows the failure of Keynesian economics.





…ever since a property bubble burst in the late 1980s, Japan’s economy has been in the doldrums, and its politicians deserve much of the blame. They’ve engaged in repeated binges of so-called Keynesian stimulus. But running up the national credit card hasn’t worked any better in Japan than it did for President Barack Obama. Instead of economic rejuvenation, Japan is now saddled with record levels of debt.



In other words, Japan already is a basket case and may be the next Greece. And all this foolish policy has been cheered on by the IMF.


I then highlight how Japan shows why a value-added tax is a huge mistake.





Japan’s politicians also decided to impose a value-added tax (VAT) on the nation. As so often happens when a VAT gets adopted, it turns into a money machine, as legislators start ratcheting the rate higher and higher. That happened in Europe back in the 1960s and 1970s, and it’s happening in Japan today.



And regular readers know my paranoid fear of the VAT taking hold in the United States.


But here’s the main lesson in the column.


The combination of demographic changes and redistribution programs is a recipe for fiscal crisis.





…the biggest economic threat to the country is the way Japan’s welfare state interacts with demographic changes. It’s not that the welfare state is enormous, particularly compared with European nations, but the system is becoming an ever-increasing burden because the Japanese people are living longer and having fewer children. …America faces some of the same problems. …if we don’t reform our entitlement programs, it’s just a matter of time before we also have a fiscal crisis.



To be sure, as I note in the article, Japan’s demographic outlook is worse. And that nation’s hostility to any immigration (even from high-skilled people) means that Japan can’t compensate (as America has to some degree) for low birth rates by expanding its population.



Indeed, the demographic situation in Japan is so grim that social scientists have actually estimated the date on which the Japanese people become extinct.





Mark August 16, 3766 on your calendar. According to…researchers at Tohoku University, that’s the date Japan’s population will dwindle to one. For 25 years, the country has had falling fertility rates, coinciding with widespread aging. The worrisome trend has now reached a critical mass known as a “demographic time bomb.” When that happens, a vicious cycle of low spending and low fertility can cause entire generations to shrink — or disappear completely.



Though I guess none of us will know whether this prediction is true unless we live another 1750 years. But it doesn’t matter if the estimate is perfect. Japan’s demographic outlook is very grim.


By the way, the problem of aging populations and misguided entitlements exists in almost every developed nation.


But I mentioned in the article for The Hill that there are two exceptions. Hong Kong and Singapore have extremely low birthrates and aging populations. But neither jurisdiction faces a fiscal crisis for the simple reason that people largely are responsible for saving for their own retirement.


And that, of course, is the main lesson. The United States desperately needs genuine entitlement reform. While I’m not overflowing with optimism about Trump’s view on these issues, hope springs eternal.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

If You Want to Get Pregnant, Avoid Soda, New Study Suggests

New research shows that women who regularly consume sodas may be lowering their chances of getting pregnant.

For the study, researchers interviewed 524 women undergoing in-vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment about their food and beverage consumption. They found a link between low-calorie sweeteners, such as saccharine and sucrose, and reduced fertility rates. [1


Source: Time

The study was presented on 17 October 2016 at the American Society for Reproductive Medicine congress in Salt Lake City, Utah.




Diet sodas are considered by many women to be “healthier” than sugary ones, but the findings indicate that both natural and synthetic sweeteners raised the risk of an embryo having at least one deformity. The authors wrote:


“The general population believes that artificial sweeteners are healthier than regular sugar, and is not aware of the dangers hidden behind the promise of reduced calorie food and beverages.” [2]


A leading British fertility expert called the findings “highly significant” and cautioned women not to underestimate the effects of food additives on their chances of conception. [1]


Let’s take a look at some of the study’s other findings:


  • Reduced rates of pregnancy were most closely linked with the consumption of soft drinks made with artificial sweeteners, in addition to coffee with added artificial sweeteners.

  • Sugary soft drinks and coffee were associated with poorer egg quality and poorer pregnancy chances.

  • Unsweetened coffee did not affect egg quality or the odds of becoming pregnant.

Said Professor Adam Balen, Chairman of the British Fertility Society:


“This is a very interesting study that suggests the false promise of artificial sweeteners that are found in soft drinks and added to drinks, such as coffee, may have a significant effect on the quality and fertility of woman’s eggs and this may further impact on the chances of conception.


These findings are highly significant to our population. There should be more scrutiny of food additives and better information available to the public and, in particular, those wishing to conceive.” [3]


Some experts have been slow to accept the findings, however, because they say obesity could have been a factor in the findings, noting the study’s lack of body-weight information, as well as the use of data from IVF patients. [1]


Furthermore, a spokesman from the British Dietetic Association said the study made no attempt to distinguish the impact on fertility outcomes of the body-weight of the women in the study from the impact of artificial sweeteners and sugar in their diets.


Professor Richard Sharpe, Group Leader of Male Reproductive Health Research Team, University of Edinburgh, noted that some of the women the researchers studied may have been drinking diet soda in an effort to lose weight. [2]




Unfortunately for these women, diet soda has been linked to weight gain. As a matter of fact, a study published in 2015 in the Journal of the American Geriatrics Society found that drinking artificially sweetened soft drinks was associated with “escalating abdominal obesity.”


Over the course of the 9-year study, regular drinkers of diet soda added more than 3 inches around their middle, compared with those who didn’t drink diet soda. And the occasional diet soda drinkers increased approximately 1.8 inches around their midsections.


There is debate over whether diet soda literally causes this weight gain, or whether people who drink diet soda wind up consuming too many calories because they believe drinking diet soda means they can eat more.


Past studies have shown that excess weight can interfere with a woman’s estrogen levels and cause polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS), which can make it difficult for a woman to get pregnant. [2]


However, it’s important to note that past studies have also shown that artificial sweeteners may disrupt the gut’s delicate microbiome, which can increase the risk of metabolic syndrome – a group of conditions that include high blood pressure and high blood glucose (sugar) levels that overall increase the risk of heart disease. [2]


Source: Gut Health Project

Sources:


[1] The Telegraph


[2] Medical Daily


[3] Newsweek


Time



Storable Food


About Julie Fidler:


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Julie Fidler is a freelance writer, legal blogger, and the author of Adventures in Holy Matrimony: For Better or the Absolute Worst. She lives in Pennsylvania with her husband and two ridiculously spoiled cats. She occasionally pontificates on her blog.