Pepe Escobar: Why Jihadism Won't Be Allowed To Die

Authored by Pepe Escobar via SputnikNews.com,

A serious working hypothesis is being discussed for a while now among independent geopolitical analysts. Here it is, in a nutshell.

Daesh may be dying – but the world is still encumbered with its walking corpse.

Plan B of Daesh’s masters may have been to indoctrinate repeated waves of misguided youth across the EU and “seduce” them into D.I. Y. jihadi terror, creating fear and insecurity in Europe. I’ve just been to Barcelona — and that’s not happening. No Fear.

Daesh can also manipulate its brand name to stake a claim into what we may call the New War Belt in Southwest Asia. That’s also not happening, because the “4+1” – Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, plus Hezbollah – with the addition of Turkey, and with China in a “leading from behind” role, are all working together.

The unfinished war across “Syraq” coupled with spasms of jihadism in Europe could certainly still metastasize into a massive Eurasian cancer, spreading like a plague from Afghanistan to Germany and vice-versa, and from the South China Sea to Brussels via Pakistan and vice-versa.

What would happen under this cataclysmic scenario is the complete derailment of the Chinese-driven New Silk Roads, a.k.a. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); its integration with the Russia-driven Eurasia Economic Union (EAEC); and a massive security threat to the domestic stability of the Russia-China strategic partnership, with uncontrollable bellicose scenarios developing very close to their borders.

It’s no secret which elements and institutions would very much cherish internal political chaos in both Russia and China.

Charlie gets stronger

Dr. Zbig “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski may be dead, but geopolitics is still encumbered with his corpse. Brzezinski’s life obsession is that no peer competitor to the US should be allowed to emerge. Imagine as he lay dying contemplating the ongoing, ultimate nightmare; a Russia-China pan-Eurasian alliance.

The less disastrous scenario in this case would be to seduce either Moscow or Beijing into becoming a US partner, based on which one would pose a lesser “threat” in the future. Brzezinski focused on Russia as the immediate threat and China as the long game threat.

Thus the obsession of the US deep state and the Clinton machine in demonizing all things Russia – like an infantile neo-McCarthyism on steroids. Inevitably, what this geopolitical back hole has precipitated is China’s even more rapid advance on all fronts.

Not to mention that the Russia-China strategic partnership kept getting stronger every day – an eerie echo of Capt. Willard’s line in Coppola’s Apocalypse Now; “Every minute I stay in this room I get weaker, every minute Charlie squats in the bush, he gets stronger”.

And yet Charlie is not squatting; he’s conquering via trade and investment. And he’s not in the bush; he’s all over the Eurasian plains.

A basket of Hobbesian flare-ups

The other American dalang, Henry Kissinger, is still alive, at 94. Advising President Trump before the January inauguration, and posing as the supreme gray eminence on China matters, he suggested Russia should be courted.

But then came the clincher. Clearly identifying that the Russia-China-Iran alliance holds the key to Eurasia integration, Kissinger revealed his true colors; it’s the weakest link – Iran – that should be neutralized.

Thus his recent proclamation/warning about an “Iranian radical empire” developing/stretching from Tehran to Beirut as the “vacuum” left by Daesh is filled by the Persians.

And here we have Kissinger once again as the unreconstructed Cold Warrior that he is; exit Communism, enter Khomeinism as the supreme “evil.” And may the Lord bask in praise of the Wahhabi matrix of jihadism enablers; the House of Saud.

The Kissingerian recipe sounds like music to the US deep state; Daesh should not be routed, it should be “realigned” as a tool against Iran.

Who cares that the notion of an “Iranian radical empire” per se does not even qualify as a joke? Lebanon is multicultural. Syria will continue to be ruled by the secular Baath Party. Iraq rejects Khomeinism – with tremendously influential Ayatollah Sistani privileging the parliamentary system.

The “4+1” – backed by China — have forged a serious alliance in the fire of the Syrian war. None of this will change by a Kissinger decree. As for “filling the vacuum”, the alternative is Daesh and Jabhat al-Nusra, a.k.a. al-Qaeda in Syria. “But wait!” — say the neocons/neoliberalcons of the War Party. “We like that!”]

And that brings us full circle to the initial working hypothesis. Daesh won’t be allowed to die – as much as the geopolitical re-engineering of what Dr. Zbig used to call the “Eurasian Balkans” refuses to die.

ISIS-Khorasan, or ISIS-K – that regroup in Afghanistan – can be so handy to wreak havoc in the intersection of Central Asia and South Asia, so close to key BRI development corridors.

Moscow and Beijing though, know exactly what’s goin’ on. The phony Caliphate was useful in an attempt to break off BRI across “Syraq”, as much as Maidan in Ukraine was useful to break off the EAEU.

Other war fronts will follow – from the Philippines to Venezuela, all bent on disrupting regional integration projects under a Divide and Rule strategy of US satraps manipulated into Hobbesian asymmetrical flare-ups.

Sixteen years after 9/11, the name of the game is not GWOT (Global War on Terror) anymore; is how, under the cover of GWOT, to disturb geostrategic expansion by the people who matter; “peer competitors” Russia and China.

Beijing Not Amused After Tillerson Says US Will Block Chinese Access To South China Sea Islands

While Rex Tillerson"s confirmation hearing as Trump"s Secretary of State was for the most part uneventful, several hours into his back and forth with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Tillerson compared China’s actions to those of Russia in Crimea, saying a failure to respond had allowed it to “keep pushing the envelope” in the South China Sea. “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that first the island-building stops and second your access to those islands is also not going to be allowed” and that putting military assets on those islands was "akin to Russia’s taking Crimea” from Ukraine.

With that statement, America"s likely next secretary of state "has set a course for a potentially serious confrontation with Beijing" according to Reuters, which added that his comments are "expected to enrage Beijing." 

Tillerson, the former Exxon chairman and CEO, did not elaborate on what might be done to deny China access to the islands it has built up from South China Sea reefs, equipped with military-length airstrips and fortified with weapons. Trump"s transition team did not immediately respond to a request for specifics on how China might be blocked from the artificial islands.

Tillerson said he considered China’s South China Sea activity "extremely worrisome" and that it would be a threat to the "entire global economy" if Beijing were able to dictate access to the waterway.

“This is the sort of off-the-cuff remark akin to a tweet that pours fuel on the fire and maybe makes things worse,” Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra told Bloomberg. “Short of going to war with China, there is nothing the Americans can do.”

He blamed the current situation on what he termed an inadequate U.S. response. "The failure of a response has allowed them just to keep pushing the envelope on this," Tillerson said.

China responded when its Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kand said China has been acting within the limits of its sovereignty. “Like the U.S., China has the right within its own territory to carry out normal activities,” he said at a regular briefing in Beijing. When asked repeatedly about Tillerson"s comments on blocking access to islands, China"s foreign ministry spokesman said he couldn"t make any guesses as to what Tillerson was referring to and would not answer hypothetical questions, Reuters reported.

China"s right to carry out "normal activities" in its sovereign territory in the South China Sea is "indisputable", Lu said, speaking at a daily briefing on Thursday. He did not elaborate.

Tillerson also said he would stand by U.S. defense treaties with Japan and South Korea. These had been in doubt after Trump said in an interview last March that he would consider withdrawing U.S. troops if allies didn’t pay more for their upkeep. Asked whether he agreed with Trump’s assertion that it wouldn’t be a bad thing for the U.S. if Japan and South Korea acquired nuclear weapons, Tillerson said he “did not agree."

"We have long-standing ally commitments with Japan and South Korea in the area and I think we would respond in accordance with those accords,” he said. “Certainly we have made commitments to Japan in terms of a guarantee of their defense.”

Pouring more gasoline on US-Sino relations, Tillerson called China"s South China Sea island-building and declaration of an air defense zone in the East China Sea it contests with Japan "illegal actions." "They’re taking territory or control, or declaring control of territories that are not rightfully China’s."

Tillerson also said Washington needed to reaffirm its commitment to Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province, however he stopped short of Trump"s questioning of Washington"s long-standing policy on the issue.  "I don’t know of any plans to alter the "one China" position," Tillerson said.

Curiously, Tillerson"s words went beyond Trump"s own tough rhetoric on China. Regional military sources said while the U.S. navy had extensive capabilities in Asia to stage blocking operations with ships, submarines and planes, any such move against China"s growing naval fleets would risk dangerous escalations.

Tillerson"s criticism of China was not confined solely to geopolitics: he accused China of failing to live up to global agreements on trade and intellectual property, echoing past remarks by Trump, who has threatened to impose high, retaliatory tariffs on China.

But Tillerson also stressed the "deeply intertwined" nature of the world"s two biggest economies. "We should not let disagreements over other issues exclude areas for productive partnership."

It's The "Most Volatile" Year For Political Risk Since World War II

"In 2017 we enter a period of geopolitical recession," warns Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer, adding that international war or "the breakdown of major central government institutions" isn"t inevitable, though "such an outcome is now thinkable." In the company"s 19th annual outlook, Eurasia fears that U.S. unilateralism under Donald Trump, China’s growing assertiveness and a weakened German Chancellor Angela Merkel will make 2017 the "most volatile" year for political risk since World War II.

This is the most volatile year for political risk since World War II, @EurasiaGroup says https://t.co/7EfzqhH11p pic.twitter.com/E7XwVa5VkP

— Bloomberg (@business) January 3, 2017

As Bloomberg reports, the warning is a reminder of the range of threats to stability in 2017, from elections in Germany, France and the Netherlands and Britain’s planned exit from the European Union to setbacks in emerging nations such as Brazil and refugee crises.

With Trump’s ascent to the presidency on an America First platform, the global economy can’t count on the U.S. to provide “guardrails” anymore, according to Eurasia, which advises investors on political risk. Trump’s signals of a thaw with Russia, skepticism toward the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and his “alignment” with European anti-establishment parties such as France’s National Front could weaken the main postwar alliance protecting the global order, according to the report released Tuesday.

“You could see an environment that geopolitically is by far the worst that we’ve experienced in decades in 2017 and yet the investment into the U.S. markets and the strength of the American dollar is going to grow,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

In China, a scheduled leadership transition makes it likely that President Xi Jinping will be “more likely than ever to respond forcefully to foreign policy challenges,” potentially leading to spikes in U.S.-China tensions, according to Eurasia. To maintain domestic stability, Xi might “overreact” to any sign of economic trouble, leading to a risk of new asset bubbles or capital controls, Eurasia said.

Merkel, who is seeking re-election in the fall, faces likely disputes over Brexit, Greece’s simmering debt crisis and an “increasingly authoritarian” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, threatening a refugee accord between the EU and Turkey.

“Despite just how wrong the polls have been in recent major electoral contests across the developed world, Merkel will win a fourth consecutive term,” the report said. “But the need to appease domestic critics this year will leave her a diminished figure, impacting the quality of her leadership both at home and in the EU.”

Other risks cited by Eurasia include:

• Lack of economic reforms, with only China on a “positive trajectory” among 14 major nations and Italy, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey and the U.K. declining.

• Politicians blaming central banks, including the Federal Reserve, for economic woes. Such attacks mark “a risk to global markets in 2017 by threatening to upend central banks’ roles as technocratic institutions that provide financial and economic stability.”


• A “witch hunt” against parts of the opposition in Turkey, even tighter control over government and the media by Erdogan, and pressure on the Turkish central bank to keep rates low and rely increasingly on fiscal stimulus to offset slowing growth.


• North Korea’s nuclear program, which may yield some 20 nuclear weapons, combined with technological advances allowing strikes at the U.S. west coast in the future.


• National Front leader Marine Le Pen winning the French presidential election is the biggest political risk in Europe, where EU ties and the euro area are “in a process of gradual, slow-motion disintegration,” New York University economics professor Nouriel Roubini said on Bloomberg Television. “If Le Pen comes to power in France, if an anti-euro party comes to power in Italy, this could be the beginning of the end of Europe and the euro zone,” he said.

Eurasia concludes...

This year marks the most volatile political risk environment in the postwar period, at least as important to global markets as the economic recession of 2008. It needn’t develop into a geopolitical depression that triggers major interstate military conflict and/or the breakdown of major central government institutions. But such an outcome is now thinkable, a tail risk from the weakening of international security and economic architecture and deepening mistrust among the world’s most powerful governments.

Full Eurasia Group Report below...

Russia is a 3rd World Country - 13 SECRET FACTS EXPOSED

Since publishing exclusively on Zero Hedge our expose on Russia in order to "counterbalance" the propaganda out there from the deep state, we"ve learned that there is a deep FACT VOID about this mysterious culture and place called RUSSIA and requires a series of articles.  This is a topic not being covered elsewhere!  And as we explain in our best-selling FX book - the world isn"t 

Anyone who has ever been to Russia, that is - outside of a 5 star hotel in Moscow which isn"t any different than a 5 star hotel anywhere else - you don"t need to read an article like this to agree, that Russia is a 3rd world country, or debate about how big their missiles are.  Being a 3rd world country isn"t a bad thing.  And of all the third world, Russia is the fastest growing.  Remember, Russia was born in 1990, and is a capitalist market economy.  Russia has grown by huge leaps and bounds in the past 25 years.  But they lack the cultural background to make the switch to a fully market economy.  What does that mean - in other words?  There is a mentality that was programmed into their brains, during the Soviet Union, that still lives in Russia and with that mentality, having anything but the Soviet system is difficult or impossible.  The new generation of iphones and consumerism, albeit vulgar, will have better chances at adapting to a global market economy which is what Russia hopes to be.  The communist hardliners are dead and dying, and not being replaced.  In a system where everyone saved and money sometimes didn"t exist (such as during Perestroika, where workers were paid with tickets, not money - which could be bartered with neighbors for example if one family didn"t drink alcohol, vodka tickets could be traded for more meat, making Russians develop a natural talent for trading in dark pools).

For those who will argue about "what is a third world country" let"s use this article as a base guideline, Russia certainly meets the definitions here.

If everything in and of the state is basically and profoundly corrupt (which naturally prompts the question if there is any political state in the world that is not corrupt and thus Third World?).

If nothing really works but there is always ‘a way’.

If you have to pay the authorities when entering or leaving the country. If you have to do both you’re actually in a Fourth World country!

If the price of taxis are either totally negotiable or strictly determined by government regulations — amounting to the same.

If there’s always a taxi and a willing driver to be found.

If there are no ways of proving whether you’ve been drinking and/or speeding behind the wheel.

If the government doesn’t care whether you’ve been drinking and/or speeding.

If road patrols routinely consist of heavily armed military.

If the paint on the bathroom walls have been allowed to stain the shower tiles as well. In this particular respect, Italy, Spain and France would easily qualify as ‘Third World countries’. The Greeks and the peoples of the Balkan countries, on the other hand, don’t do this. I guess they admire the Germans and have to some degree been influenced by them.

If painting the doors also on the inside is considered an unnecessary expense.

Before claiming yourself a self-professed "Russian Expert" you should either be 1) from Russia or 2) speak Russian language fluently, and have lived there for a number of years or 3) have extensively studied all things Russian.  If you are none of these, and want to have a quick education on the subject, here"s a few places to start:

A History of Russia: New, Revised Edition - This is a MUST READ for any Russophile, student of Russia, or someone who wants to do business in Russia.  Probably, the reason this is one book written objectively that offers fresh perspectives is for the simple reason that it was written by a Russian intelligentsia in the United States, while at Yale University:

Vernadsky took a novel approach to Russian history, presenting it as a continuous succession of empires, starting from the Scythian, Sarmatian, Hunnic, and Gothic; Vernadsky attempted to determine the laws of their expansion and collapse. His views emphasized the importance of Eurasian nomadic cultures for the cultural and economic progress of Russia, thus anticipating some of the ideas advanced by Lev Gumilev.

Vernadsky became the leading American exponent of depicting Russia as much Asian and European, if not more so. He pointed out many strong cultural differences between Russia and Europe, and praised the success of Russian development along an independent path that revealed his own unique character. Vernadsky was a geographical determinist like his Yale colleague Ellsworth Huntington. They assumed that the characteristics of a land defined the character of the people and indeed of their government as well. For that reason Vernadsky was able to identify the roots of Russian culture in an ancient period long before the Slavic groups arrived. He thereby undercut the standard claim that modern Russia emerged from Kievan Rus. He emphasized the importance of the Mongol period (1238-1471), as the horde united the vast Eurasian plain under a single ruler. This gave tsarist Russia a strong centralized government as well as the deep distrust of Europe. Vernadsky was annoyed that Peter the Great tried to Westernize Russia, thereby distorting its natural character. He said Peter only succeeded in polarizing Russia into a Western oriented elite that stood in profound conflict with the Eurasian peasants. Indeed, Vernadsky argued that this polarization was one of the main weaknesses of the tsarist regime, making it incapable of dealing with the revolutionary movements of the early twentieth century. He celebrated the collapse of the European style parliamentary regime in the October Revolution of 1917 that brought the Bolsheviks to power. Vernadsky was not a liberal, nor was he a Communist sympathizer, but he did admire the Bolsheviks for rebuilding a strong Russia on non-European lines.[1]

Unnatural Deaths in the U.S.S.R.: 1928-1954 - This is a historical chronicle about the "real" deaths during this time period:

Who was worse, Hitler or Stalin?  In the second half of the twentieth century, Americans were taught to see both Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union as the greatest of evils. Hitler was worse, because his regime propagated the unprecedented horror of the Holocaust, the attempt to eradicate an entire people on racial grounds. Yet Stalin was also worse, because his regime killed far, far more people, tens of millions it was often claimed, in the endless wastes of the Gulag. For decades, and even today, this confidence about the difference between the two regimes—quality versus quantity—has set the ground rules for the politics of memory. Even historians of the Holocaust generally take for granted that Stalin killed more people than Hitler, thus placing themselves under greater pressure to stress the special character of the Holocaust, since this is what made the Nazi regime worse than the Stalinist one.

This is just a good start.  If you really want to know any culture - the only way is to go there, live there, do business there.  But for those with a short attention span, that enjoy throwing objects at their TV when the reporters tell them something they don"t like, here we go:

SECRET FACTS - RUSSIA IS A 3RD WORLD COUNTRY

1. 80% or more of the Russian economy is unknown.  This is because it all happens "under the table" to avoid taxes.  This will change probably, but as of now, workers are paid "white" and "black" salaries.  You can read about this here.  Auditors and government workers are bribed, wined and dined, when they inspect the books.  It"s a system everyone likes, that just "works" - but it is impractical to make economic forecasts for such a system.  This system is also on the highest levels, as oligarchs wealth is often owned by dead people.  Of course, this practice isn"t heavily documented, because the whole idea of this under the table system is to not leave any paper trail!  Businesses even keep a full set of "white books" and "real books" like the mob used to do.  Yes - this is business in Russia!  

2. Bankruptcy doesn"t exist.  There is no concept of bankruptcy.  There are even banks that offer really high interest loans (there are no usury laws) that will hire strong men to "scare" you into paying, which might include breaking a leg, burning down your shed or in extreme cases, maybe holding a relative in their "office" - yes this goes on and it"s not done by the MAFIA it"s done by the BANKS!  

3. Russian healthcare system is "not to Western standards" although it is "developing."  25% of males die before they are 55 years old, mostly due to alcohol.

4.  The primary currency used is physical rubles, that means PAPER.  When local people believe the Ruble will depreciate in value, they will exchange their paper Rubles for physical US Dollars or Euros and literally - keep them under the mattress.

5. You have never seen roads in such poor conditions.  Around the Kremlin, and in rich areas of Moscow, roads are OK.  Outside of this area, harsh Russian winter wreacks havoc on roads that were never built to European or US standards, as they would be in Chicago or Boston.  See this road in Volgograd:

This is why invading Russia has historically been impossible.  Of course, not all roads are like this - but many are.  

6. Only in Russia meme - Just google "Only in Russia" or checkout this article.

(Letters say "We watch you! - You must be 18+ to use this game)

7. Russia is not a pleasant country to live in.  The weather in winter is worse than in Canada, Wisconsin, Maine, or your average US northern city.  Only Alaska is comparable to Russian climate.  

8. Putin is not a dictator - he is just VERY popular.  But anyway, 3rd world countries usually have a "Putin" or "Castro" which is almost more than a President - a cultural leader.  Putin meets this criteria.  People keep photos of Putin on their walls.  They sell them, along with small busts of his head at every Metro station.  Russian people are simply crazy for Putin.  To understand this better here"s a WAPO article on the topic.

9. In Russia there is not such a thing as "consumer rights".  Grocery stores sell spoiled food.  There"s no "return policy."  

10. Corruption is just considered part of government life (see example here).  Finding a government official that was not corrupt, would be unusual.  For example, in a small town the government decides to "renovate" streets and parks, so they assess a special tax to residents (normally, there is no real estate tax in Russia).  But 90% of the collected money goes into the pocket of the officials, and little is left to clean up the streets.

11. The average pension in Russia is $148 USD.  The average Russian pension is paid IN CASH by Government official on a monthly basis, at the property of the pensioner.

12.  24% of the entire population HAS A BANK ACCOUNT.  In the USA about 95% of eligible persons (excluding children, illegal immigrants) have bank accounts.

13. If using the income disparity guage of what is third world, experts say in this report from CNBC that RUSSIA IS THE MOST UNEQUAL country in the WORLD - even MORE than the Arabs.  What happened after the collapse of USSR, the Russian Elite allowed the seizure or "privatization" of state assets by individuals who became "Oligarchs" which are the US equivalent of "Robber Barons" that literally inherited state owned assets because they were really, really, really, really, really, really lucky.  But the practical fact is that an Oligarch class is needed for any Capitalist society to flourish.

Russia has grown by huge amounts.  They have produced some of the world"s leading thinkers, scientists, artists, writers, composers, and other talent.  Now, the global Russian oligarch class challenges mainstream Western business.  But keep it all in perspective, Russia has a long way to go.  In the meantime, don"t worry about Russian hackers breaking into your home office.  They have problems of their own to solve.

Don’t believe us – read some of these books and articles:

Wall Street and the Bolshevik Revolution.  

Armand Hammer: The Untold Story

A People"s History of the United States

Clinton Cash: The Untold Story of How and Why Foreign Governments and Businesses Helped Make Bill and Hillary Rich

To learn how the global financial system works, checkout Fortress Capital Trading Academy - or checkout SPLITTING PENNIES FOR ONLY $6.11