China Daily: Tillerson's "Disastrous" Actions Would Set The Course For A "Devastating Confrontation"

We were surprised by how contained China was this morning after yesterday"s confirmation hearing of Rex Tillerson, in which the former Exxon CEO said that a failure to respond to China had allowed it to “keep pushing the envelope” in the South China Sea and added that “we’re going to have to send China a clear signal that first the island-building stops and second your access to those islands is also not going to be allowed” and that putting military assets on those islands was "akin to Russia’s taking Crimea” from Ukraine."

Traditionally such a direct threat would be i) perceived as very undiplomatic and ii) prompt an immediate, and angry rebuke from Beijing, with China immediately shifting to the offensive.

“This is the sort of off-the-cuff remark akin to a tweet that pours fuel on the fire and maybe makes things worse,” Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra told Bloomberg. “Short of going to war with China, there is nothing the Americans can do.”

But not today: during his press conference earlier today, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang could barely muster the will to sound defensive, saying China has been acting within the limits of its sovereignty. “Like the U.S., China has the right within its own territory to carry out normal activities,” he said at a regular briefing in Beijing. When asked repeatedly about Tillerson"s comments on blocking access to islands, China"s foreign ministry spokesman said he couldn"t make any guesses as to what Tillerson was referring to and would not answer hypothetical questions, Reuters reported.

As it turns out, China may not have had time to digest what Tillerson said. After all his South China sea remark was toward the end of his nearly all day long hearing, and so many local media outlets may have simply missed it. However, they caught up today, and first China Daily, then its nationalist tabloid, the Global Times took turns to first mock, then attack Tillerson.

Here is the gist of the China Daily op-ed published earlier today: according to the Chinese daily mouthpiece, not only were Tillerson"s views "divergent from, even contrary to, those of Trump on some critical issues. He openly conceded he is yet to have a serious, in-depth discussion with Trump on foreign policy imperatives. These boil down to one simple point – his remarks at the Wednesday hearing, sensational as they were, turned out to be of little reference value except for judging his personal orientations."

Yet while China realizes that Tillerson"s bluster was intended for a specific audience, that does not make it any happier:

The backlash that has ensued is understandable. It is certainly no small matter for a man intended to be the US diplomat in chief to display such undisguised animosity toward China.  Tillerson labeled China"s reclamation projects in the South China Sea as "an illegal taking of disputed areas without regard for international norms," in obvious disregard of the essential truth that all those activities took place well within the country"s persistent, historical territorial claims.

Blaming the "extremely worrisome" state of affairs in the South China Sea on an "inadequate US response", the US secretary of state nominee even claimed China"s access to those islands should "not to be allowed". Which sounded intimidating; though he stopped short of elaborating how to achieve it. And like Trump, he blamed Beijing for "not being a reliable partner" in dealing with the Democratic People"s Republic of Korea.

And then, the not so subtle threats followed:

Such remarks are not worth taking seriously because they are a mish-mash of naivety, shortsightedness, worn-out prejudices, and unrealistic political fantasies. Should he act on them in the real world, it would be disastrous.

As many have observed, it would set a course for devastating confrontation between China and the US. After all, how can the US deny China access to its own territories without inviting the latter"s legitimate, defensive responses?

Finally, the mocking of Tillerson as a clueless former company exec who does not have the faintest understanding of diplomacy: "Tillerson wanted a reality-based China policy that is "based on what we see and not based on what we hope". But what he presented was based more on what prejudice and arms-spurred self-righteousness make him believe and hope than on real-world realities. What happened on Wednesday shows that if and when confirmed, Rex Tillerson needs to first acquaint himself with the ABCs of China-US relations and diplomacy at large."

The Global Times approach was almost verbatim. First, the justification of Tillerson"s "bluster":

It is suspected that he merely wanted to curry favor from senators and increase his chances of being confirmed by intentionally showing a tough stance toward China.

Tillerson did not give details of how he would achieve his self-proclaimed goals. Nonetheless, he also mentioned that Chinese and American economic interests are deeply intertwined and that "China has been a valuable ally in curtailing elements of radical Islam." He noted that "We should not let disagreements over other issues exclude areas for productive partnership."

Motives aside, the GT then explained that China no longer views itself as America"s subordinate:

China has enough determination and strength to make sure that his rabble rousing will not succeed. Unless Washington plans to wage a large-scale war in the South China Sea, any other approaches to prevent Chinese access to the islands will be foolish. The US has no absolute power to dominate the South China Sea.

Following this, just like in the case of China Daily, there was the mocking:

Tillerson had better bone up on nuclear power strategies if he wants to force a big nuclear power to withdraw from its own territories. Probably he just has oil prices and currency rates in his mind as former ExxonMobil CEO.

Next, the not so thinly veiled threat - again - aimed not so much at Tillerson but at Trump:

As Trump has yet to be sworn in, China has shown restraint whenever his team members expressed radical views. But the US should not be misled into thinking that Beijing will be fearful of their threats.

How does it all end according to China? Unless Trump"s diplomatic team changes course, the Times said "the two sides better prepare for a military clash."

Tillerson"s statements regarding the islands in the South China Sea are far from professional. If Trump"s diplomatic team shapes future Sino-US ties as it is doing now, the two sides had better prepare for a military clash. South China Sea countries will accelerate their negotiations on a Code of Conduct. They have the ability to solve divergences by themselves without US interference.

And the conclusion:

Just as the Philippines and Vietnam are trying to warm their ties with China, Tillerson"s words cannot be more irritating.  It is hoped that Tillerson will desire a productive partnership with China more and his harsh words are just coaxing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. But no matter what, China will always respond to various US diplomatic maneuvers.

As a reminder, all this has already happened and Trump isn"t president yet. We eagerly look forward to the president-elect"s next steps vis-a-vis an increasingly angry CHina and vice versa.

Beijing Not Amused After Tillerson Says US Will Block Chinese Access To South China Sea Islands

While Rex Tillerson"s confirmation hearing as Trump"s Secretary of State was for the most part uneventful, several hours into his back and forth with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Tillerson compared China’s actions to those of Russia in Crimea, saying a failure to respond had allowed it to “keep pushing the envelope” in the South China Sea. “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that first the island-building stops and second your access to those islands is also not going to be allowed” and that putting military assets on those islands was "akin to Russia’s taking Crimea” from Ukraine.

With that statement, America"s likely next secretary of state "has set a course for a potentially serious confrontation with Beijing" according to Reuters, which added that his comments are "expected to enrage Beijing." 

Tillerson, the former Exxon chairman and CEO, did not elaborate on what might be done to deny China access to the islands it has built up from South China Sea reefs, equipped with military-length airstrips and fortified with weapons. Trump"s transition team did not immediately respond to a request for specifics on how China might be blocked from the artificial islands.

Tillerson said he considered China’s South China Sea activity "extremely worrisome" and that it would be a threat to the "entire global economy" if Beijing were able to dictate access to the waterway.

“This is the sort of off-the-cuff remark akin to a tweet that pours fuel on the fire and maybe makes things worse,” Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra told Bloomberg. “Short of going to war with China, there is nothing the Americans can do.”

He blamed the current situation on what he termed an inadequate U.S. response. "The failure of a response has allowed them just to keep pushing the envelope on this," Tillerson said.

China responded when its Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kand said China has been acting within the limits of its sovereignty. “Like the U.S., China has the right within its own territory to carry out normal activities,” he said at a regular briefing in Beijing. When asked repeatedly about Tillerson"s comments on blocking access to islands, China"s foreign ministry spokesman said he couldn"t make any guesses as to what Tillerson was referring to and would not answer hypothetical questions, Reuters reported.

China"s right to carry out "normal activities" in its sovereign territory in the South China Sea is "indisputable", Lu said, speaking at a daily briefing on Thursday. He did not elaborate.

Tillerson also said he would stand by U.S. defense treaties with Japan and South Korea. These had been in doubt after Trump said in an interview last March that he would consider withdrawing U.S. troops if allies didn’t pay more for their upkeep. Asked whether he agreed with Trump’s assertion that it wouldn’t be a bad thing for the U.S. if Japan and South Korea acquired nuclear weapons, Tillerson said he “did not agree."

"We have long-standing ally commitments with Japan and South Korea in the area and I think we would respond in accordance with those accords,” he said. “Certainly we have made commitments to Japan in terms of a guarantee of their defense.”

Pouring more gasoline on US-Sino relations, Tillerson called China"s South China Sea island-building and declaration of an air defense zone in the East China Sea it contests with Japan "illegal actions." "They’re taking territory or control, or declaring control of territories that are not rightfully China’s."

Tillerson also said Washington needed to reaffirm its commitment to Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province, however he stopped short of Trump"s questioning of Washington"s long-standing policy on the issue.  "I don’t know of any plans to alter the "one China" position," Tillerson said.

Curiously, Tillerson"s words went beyond Trump"s own tough rhetoric on China. Regional military sources said while the U.S. navy had extensive capabilities in Asia to stage blocking operations with ships, submarines and planes, any such move against China"s growing naval fleets would risk dangerous escalations.

Tillerson"s criticism of China was not confined solely to geopolitics: he accused China of failing to live up to global agreements on trade and intellectual property, echoing past remarks by Trump, who has threatened to impose high, retaliatory tariffs on China.

But Tillerson also stressed the "deeply intertwined" nature of the world"s two biggest economies. "We should not let disagreements over other issues exclude areas for productive partnership."

China To Hand Over Seized US Drone "With Conditions"

On Saturday morning, the Pentagon was eager to announce that China would return a U.S. Navy underwater drone after its military scooped up the submersible in the South China Sea late this week and sparked a row that drew in President-elect Donald Trump. As previously reported, Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said that “through direct engagement with Chinese authorities, we have secured an understanding that the Chinese will return the UUV to the United States."

In retrospect, the Pentagon may have declared victory too soon. According to the South China Morning Post, China"s handover of the drone will come "with conditions", adding that "Beijing is expected to demand the United States scale down its ­surveillance in the South China Sea when it hands back a seized US underwater drone." Beijing would also "seek an expansion in the code for unplanned military encounters in the disputed waters to cover drones like the one seized by a Chinese warship off the Philippine coast near Subic Bay on Thursday."

Zhang Zhexin, a professor from the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said he ­expected it would take about 10 days for the drone to be returned. The demand for US concessions stems from the fact that “China is worried that there will be more action from the US during its power transition period,” Zhexin said. “Beijing will possibly talk to the US about expanding the code for unplanned encounters at sea to include unmanned underwater vehicles.”

Currently the code includes a set of standard operational procedures ­designed to minimize the risks of unintended maritime encounters, but it does not have a procedure to deal with underwater drones.

China is concerned that despite the US insistence that the drone was used for purely peaceful purposes. its deployment had ulterior motives. Zhang Huang, a professor from the PLA National Defence University, said the unmanned underwater vehicle could be used to gather data on Chinese naval actions, and the navigation details of Chinese submarines, People’s Daily reported.

Zhang Baohui, a China security specialist at Hong Kong’s ­Lingnan University, said the drone could be used to collect data on factors such as currents and salinity, as well as special ­sonar signals from Chinese nuclear submarines. “Both uses have military applications. The first could be used to track possible routes by Chinese submarines,” he said.

“The second could be used to detect and trace Chinese nuclear submarines.

“The drone is part of the US’ anti-submarine ­warfare.”

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that after Trump lashed out at China over the weekend, saying it stole an underwater drone from the U.S. Navy in an “unprecedented act”, Beijing’s official response was muted, although there was far more "passion" in the local nationalist tabloid press, such as the Global Times which mocked Trump’s demeanor as “lagging far behind the White House spokespersons.”

“China has so far practiced restraint at Trump’s provocations as he’s yet to enter the White House,” the Global Times said. “But this attitude won’t last too long after he officially becomes the U.S. president, were he still to treat China in the manner he tweeted today.”

And yet despite the occasional press outburst, Beijing is holding its fire at least until after he takes office next month. Until then, it looks set to continue the stance of “strategic composure” articulated after Trump questioned the U.S.’s policy of diplomatically recognizing Beijing instead of Taiwan.

However, just like Obama is contemplating his options on how to retaliate to "Russian hacking" if at all, China is likewise planning its next move:

Beijing will “strike back firmly” if Trump as president openly challenges China’s core interests like Taiwan, Tibet, the South China Sea and the East China Sea, said Shi Yinhong, director of the Center on American Studies at Renmin University in Beijing and an adviser to China’s State Council, the cabinet. Options include recalling the ambassador, stopping international cooperation, fighting a trade war -- even severing diplomatic ties.

“So far, China has adopted a cautious, measured approach of wait and see,” Shi said. “The government is still closely observing what Trump is up to and in the process of forming a clear view on his possible policy. This approach will likely continue into his presidency for the first couple of months.”

 While some policy makers in Beijing initially hoped that Trump would bring a more pragmatic approach, that view is quickly fading. Indeed, if anything, with every incremental tweet, Trump promises that it is only a matter of time before a far more serious diplomatic scandal erupts.

Trump’s reaction to the drone incident raises questions about whether that’s the case. He deleted his first tweet after writing “unpresidented” rather than “unprecedented.” Later, after tensions appeared to have been diffused, Trump sent another tweet: “We should tell China that we don’t want the drone they stole back.- let them keep it!”

Others, like Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra, disagreed and said that "such a response would deprive the U.S. of the ability to assess what information China sought to obtain while analyzing the drone after it was seized"

He added that “It just shows that Trump hasn’t thought out his policy before he tweets it,” Davis said. “The risk is that he is going to confront China to the point where it is destabilizing.” 

Indeed, if anything, the drone incident has shown how quickly tensions between the nations could escalate, particularly as China challenges U.S. naval supremacy in Asia, and what makes the situation especially volatile is that suddenly both the actions of China and the US are likewise unpredictable:

“Under Trump, China-U.S. conflicts in the South China Sea are likely to ratchet up or even deepen, with unpredictable incidents like the Bowditch episode to occur from time to time,” Li Jie, a senior researcher at the Chinese Naval Research Institute in Beijing. One could say the same about China, whose drone confiscation was seen as a substantial escalation in the festering diplomatic conflict between the two nations.

The overseas edition of The People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper, said on its social media WeChat account Saturday night that China’s capture of the drone was legal because it was conducting “military operations in sensitive waters” and rules about drone activities are ambiguous.  “This is a gray area,” the article said. “If the U.S. military can send the drone over, China can certainly seize it.”

Actually, as shown previously, the drone was snatched in a zone in the South China Sea that was in close proximity to the Philippines and not even inside the confines of the nine-dash line.

As Bloomberg concludes, "while the motive for the seizure remains unclear, it’s a concern no matter whether it was ordered from Beijing or the act of a rogue captain, according to Michael Mazza, research fellow in foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. “To me all of these various explanations are troubling,” he said. “If we do learn it was one ship acting on its own that’s not cause for a sigh of relief.”

One thing, however, is certain: should China indeed issue conditions which have to be met prior to the return of the US underwater drone, there will be many more, and far angrier tweets from Trump, the response to which from China will be critical, and may finally force the euphoric market to pay attention.  Keep a close eye on what Beijing says in the coming days, and certainly keep a very close eye on Trump"s twitter feed. That"s where the action in the final trading week of the year will be.