The "Unknown Unknowns" That Threaten U.S. Shale

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Three years after the oil price crash, the U.S. shale patch is on its second growth phase and is expected to continue to increase its production, at least through the next five years.

The global oil markets have become increasingly dependent on U.S. tight oil supply - and the oil industry is still coming to grips with this new reality, Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, wrote in a recent article.

Current projections put the Permian on the forefront of the United States’ ability to deliver increased tight oil supply to the global markets. However, forecasts for the shale patch are as dynamic as production and drilling rates are. And some ‘known unknowns’ have been surfacing such as higher gas-to-oil ratios in some wells, and the parent/child wells issue, Flowers says.

Wood Mackenzie said last month that signs had started to show that intensified drilling in the Permian doesn’t deliver commensurate volumes of oil. Although WoodMac thinks that such setbacks could just be growing pains and Permian drillers could indeed ‘change the laws of physics’, it had warned three months ago that drillers might soon start to test the region’s geological limits. If exploration and production companies can’t overcome the geological constraints with tech breakthroughs, Permian production could peak in 2021, putting more than 1.5 million bpd of future production in question and potentially significantly influencing oil prices, WoodMac said in September.

In his December article, WoodMac’s Flowers included this observation in the Permian’s ‘known unknowns’:

“Growth might also be constrained by shareholders demanding that independents rein back from volume-driven targets.”

Those ‘known unknowns’ serve as a warning: the oil market can’t be complacent and just assume that the Permian boom will deliver as expected, according to Flowers. The Wolfcamp may be the star of the Permian, WoodMac says, but “there are more than likely ‘unknown unknowns’ out there too. And if there are, there’s not another Permian ready to step in; and conventional options will take time to crank into action.”

The Eagle Ford and the Bakken combined represent nearly half of the current U.S. tight oil production, according to Wood Mackenzie, which is expressing new doubts that those two plays could offer long-term commercial drilling inventory as operators move out beyond the sweet spots. Therefore, the analysts downgraded the growth rates for both plays from the mid-2020s, but have significantly upgraded the Permian growth pace, especially for the Wolfcamp basin.

If the Permian turns out to have ‘unknown unknowns’ alongside the ‘known unknowns’, the U.S. shale patch may not deliver as expected.

Currently, WoodMac’s supply/demand balance forecasts show that the U.S. and OPEC will “do battle for contestable demand that will climb to over 5 million b/d by 2024.”

The analysts believe that U.S. shale will take the lion’s share of that demand—90 percent—as its production will double to 9.6 million bpd by 2024 from 4.9 million bpd in 2017, while OPEC will be left with meeting less than 1 million bpd of that additional demand.

Three years after the oil price crash, the most unexpected outcomes in the global oil market are the second wave of U.S. shale growth, OPEC’s “zealous adherence” to the cuts, and the resilience of some non-OPEC non-U.S. producers, WoodMac says.

While Mexico, China, and Africa as a whole have been “heavy casualties” of the lower-for-longer oil prices, Russia, Canada, and the North Sea have surprised on the positive side by adapting remarkably well to the low oil prices. Russia is the “poster child” of this resilience. Canada is also doing well with Duvernay liquids where breakevens are competitive with U.S. plays, and with better uptime from oil sands projects. The North Sea has also been a positive surprise, with the UK leading the way with aggressive cost cuts that have helped to raise oil production, WoodMac says.

Still, U.S. tight oil, especially the Permian, will be the main growth story over the medium term, but ‘unknown unknowns’ may be lurking out there and could restrain the pace of that growth.

WTI Hovers Above $50 As US Oil Rig Count Slides To 3-Month Lows

With crude production rebounding back to pre-Harvey levels, and refinery demand coming back on-line, WTI has trod water around $50 all week. The US oil rig count dropped for the 6th straight week (down 5 to 744), back at its lowest level since early June.

• *U.S. OIL RIG COUNT DOWN 5 TO 744 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US


• *U.S. GAS RIG COUNT UP 4 TO 190 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US

As Bloomberg reports, it looks like shale billionaire Harold Hamm might be right in saying U.S. producers are being more cautious than government output forecasts seem to imply.

At least that’s what the Baker Hughes weekly drilling report suggests, showing producers idled five oil rigs this week, adding to 19 parked over the previous five weeks.

The numbers released every Friday increasingly make it look like the drilling boom might have peaked, and that should impact output down the road.

Shale drillers will be disciplined in how much they produce, Hamm, chief executive officer of Continental Resources Inc. and one of the pioneers of the shale revolution, said on Bloomberg TV Thursday.

The government projection of more than 1 million new barrels a day in U.S. production this year is "flat wrong" and distorting prices, he said.

Production continues to rebound as more of Texas comes back online (despite the stagnation of oil rig counts)...

It’s going to come down to the November meeting and the market will be looking for not so much an extension of the deal, but deeper cuts, says Tariq Zahir, a New York-based commodity fund manager at Tyche Capital Advisors.

“We’ve been in a tight range the last couple of days, not really going anywhere and at the end of the day, winding up at the same prices”

US Crude Production Hits 25-Month Highs Despite Stabilization In Rig Count

While the US oil rig count has gone nowhere for the last 9 weeks (down 4 to 759 this week and with last week"s drop the largest in 7 months), US crude production continues to rise, now at its highest since July 2015.

• *U.S. OIL RIG COUNT DOWN 4 TO 759 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US

The US oil rig count continues to track the lagged WTI almost perfectly. This is the biggest 2-week rig count drop since May 2016.

Despite stabilization in rig counts, US crude production continues to trend higher, jumping to its highest since July 2015 last week...

Of course, price action has been dominated by Hurricane Harvey headlines...

Another Red Flag For Oil? China’s Crude Imports Slump To 7-Month Low

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Chinese crude oil imports in July dropped to their lowest level in seven months, although they rose 12 percent on an annual basis, according to calculations made by Reuters on the basis of China’s customs data.

Last month China imported some 34.66 million tons of crude oil, or around 8.16 million bpd, which—according to Reuters calculations based on China’s General Administration of Customs data—was the lowest level since January.

Crude oil imports in the first seven months of this year increased by 13.6 percent at 247 million tons.

In the first half of the year, Chinese crude oil imports averaged 8.55 million bpd, or 212 million tons in total – a 13.8-percent annual increase.

The total trade data for July had analysts worried that China’s economy may have started to show signs of slowdown. Both exports and imports increased less than expected, making analysts wonder if global demand growth has started to slow down, or if China’s July trade figures should be attributed solely to one-off or seasonal factors.

In total imports, China’s imports increased by 11 percent last month, missing forecasts for a 16.6-percent rise, and slowing down from June’s 17.2-percent jump, to the slowest growth since December last year.

Last month, a senior manager at Sinopec said that lower domestic production and continued low oil prices will lead to China’s demand for crude oil imports rising by around 400,000 bpd in 2017. Chinese crude oil imports are expected to exceed 400 million tons this year, and to further rise next year, Zhang Haichao, vice president of Sinopec Group, told Reuters. The estimate provided by Zhang means that Chinese demand for foreign crude would rise by 400,000 bpd, and for the first time ever, rising imports could make China the world’s top crude oil importer on an annual basis, according to Reuters. 

US Oil Rig Count Rises For 17th Straight Week As Crude Production Nears Record Highs

For the 17th week in a row, the number of US oil rigs rose (by 9 to 712) but US gas rigs fell.

• *U.S. OIL RIG COUNT UP 9 TO 712 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHI US


• *U.S. GAS RIG COUNT DOWN 1 TO 172 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHI US
  

Texas saw an additional 8 rigs added.

That"s the highest level since the week of April 17, 2015, and the longest stretch of increases in six years.

US Crude production follows its lead to within 2% of record highs...

Just don"t show Goldman (or OPEC).

Vitol Warns U.S. Crude Exports Will Grow "A Lot More"

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Rising production in the Permian, coupled with cheap pipeline and railway transport fees to the Gulf of Mexico, will enable the U.S. to significantly raise its already record-high crude oil exports, Mike Loya, head of the Americas business at oil trading giant Vitol Group, told Bloomberg in an interview published on Friday.

“We will see a lot more growth in U.S. crude exports,” said the manager of Vitol, the company that handled the first U.S. cargo after restrictions on oil exports were lifted at the end of 2015.

Since the restrictions were lifted, U.S. crude oil has reached customers in various regions around the world, including buyers in Venezuela, China, Italy, and Israel.

Vitol’s Loya believes that Asia will be increasingly one of the top destinations for U.S. crude oil, after the initial expansion to the Caribbean markets, Latin America, and Europe.

According to Loya, the Permian crude production would increase by between 600,000 bpd and 700,000 bpd by the end of this year, and “a lot of that is going to be exported”.

The EIA currently expects U.S. crude oil production to average 9.2 million bpd this year and 9.7 million bpd next year, compared to an estimated 8.9 million bpd pumped in 2016. The Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report shows that the Permian is expected to add 70,000 bpd to its production this month to reach 2.250 million bpd.

In terms of exports, in two weeks in February, U.S. crude exports soared to above 1 million bpd – 1.026 million bpd in the week of February 10, and 1.211 million bpd in the week of February 17, EIA data shows.

Should exports keep their pace, they could help alleviate some of the record-breaking inventories piled up in the U.S.

The high exports pace recently is also the result of the deeper discount of WTI against Brent.

According to Tony Starkey, manager of energy analysis at Platts Analytics:

“It’s pure economics. WTI/Brent finally widened enough to make some additional exports profitable since the export ban was lifted.”

Crude Oil; Facing 800 pound resistance test?

Crude Oil is now entering a positive seasonal time of year, with the average gain over the next 6-months being around 10%. Will it keep pushing higher, like it has the past 12-months? Will it push higher, due to seasonal strength? Below looks at Crude Oil over the past 30-years.

Crude Oil has spent the majority of the past 30-years, inside of the green shaded rising channel. The decline of a year ago, took Crude Oil below support and the rally over the past year, now has it testing the underside of this 30-year rising channel at (1).  This is a triple test taking place at this time, that if taken out, would be VERY bullish Crude.

Rising support is being tested at (2). The risk on trade in Crude, would not want to see support give way at (2).

At this time, traders are very confident that Crude Oil prices will rise, reflecting confidence levels similar to where they stood mid 2014, right before the big decline got started. With Crude reflecting the most crowded trade in its history, it is important that support holds at (2). This crowded trade wants to push the 800 pound gorilla out of the way!

Robots Over Roughnecks: Next Drilling Boom Might Not Add Many Jobs

Submitted by Tsvetana Parasova via OilPrice.com,

The inevitable advance of technology and automation has upended industries such as car manufacturing and food processing. Now robotics is making its way into the oil fields by helping drilling activities and putting together heavy pipes.

For companies, more automation would mean higher efficiency, safer operations, and ultimately, lower drilling and production costs. For oil rig workers, it would mean that part of the jobs lost during the oil price downturn would never return. Also, part of the new job openings would require a different type of skill set: for example, information technology and advanced computer skills.

But even if automation is expected to increase, and some day take over drilling sites and drillships, it is not the norm in the oil and gas industry today. While there have been early adopters, the oil and gas drilling business is still years away from becoming an automated activity.

Companies that had been lavishly spending on drilling at oil prices at $100 per barrel were too busy pumping oil and gas to think of efficiency and production costs. But the oil price bust has squeezed their budgets, and the firms are now seeking to cut costs while increasing efficiency.

Apart from reducing the human factor in drilling such as shifts or fatigue, or work-related accidents and incidents, automation can reduce headcount costs.

Automated drilling rigs may be able in the future to reduce the number of persons in a drilling crew by almost 40 percent, from 25 workers to 15 workers, Houston Chronicle’s Jordan Blum writes, quoting industry analysts.

Drilling company Nabors Industries expects that it may be able to reduce the size of the crew at each well site to around 5 people from 20 workers now if more automated drilling rigs are used, Bloomberg’s David Wethe says.

However, a sensitive issue such as workforce in an industry that had slashed a couple of hundred thousand jobs during the downturn has just become even more sensitive with the new U.S. administration.

“The Trump Administration will embrace the shale oil and gas revolution to bring jobs and prosperity to millions of Americans,” President Trump’s America First Energy Plan states.

So companies are likely to keep a low profile on how much staff costs they would be saving.

“They’ll more likely brag about the automation rather than these head counts,” James West, an analyst with investment bank Evercore ISI, told Bloomberg.

Automation is also likely to drive small-sized subcontractors doing jobs for larger companies out of business.

Although it is expected in the not-so-distant future, automated rigs will not be replacing en masse human workforce this year or next. Right now, there are many conventional under-utilized rigs, especially in offshore drilling, where companies had slashed exploration and drilling expenditure.

In land drilling, activity in the U.S. oil patch is picking up, and employment has recently shown the first signs of gains after more than two years of declines.

Total job growth in Texas is expected to rise from 1.6 percent in 2016 to around 2 percent in 2017, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist Keith Phillips said earlier this month.

“Job growth picked up in the second half of 2016 due to a stabilization of the energy sector,” Phillips noted.

Part of the jobs lost over the past two and a half years may never return due to increased automation, but the recovery of U.S. drilling may send companies hunting again for staff this year.