"I Was Expecting Many More People": Black Friday Tumbles To 3rd Spot In Busiest Shopping Days Of The Year

It has been an odd year for retail: with an estimated 6,000 store closures, and 65,000 fewer retail jobs than at the start of the year, many have said shorting retail, and especially malls, is the next "big short" trade. Indeed, one look at the performance of the mall heavy CMBX 6 BBB- tranche confirms that the bottom has fallen out of the legacy "bricks and mortar" space.

And yet, despite what should be a furious race to the bottom for market share by all still solvent non-Amazon retailers, this has not happened in what appears to be a strange manifestation of rational pricing. In fact, according to Market Track, last year the discounts were 6% deeper than this year across 17 categories in Black Friday circulars, the WSJ reports, and notes that only three of 10 major retailers the firm measured had better prices this year.

This was obvious to potential buyers like Delaney Dauchy, 15, who was shopping with her mother at a mall in Thousand Oaks, Calif., and told the WSJ that the deals aren’t as good this year. She recalled a seven-for-$28 deal on underwear at Victoria’s Secret last year; this year, she said it was five-for-$28. The Dauchys said there were smaller crowds than past years and Black Friday deals have been going on all week. “I’m not sure it seems extra special,” Anne Dauchy, 47, said.

?? Black Friday alert! ?? The 10 toys we"re tracking are cheapest at Target, where they cost $849.80. For more info: https://t.co/BVIi10s1A7 #BlackFriday pic.twitter.com/m4Ki5dnDuH

— WSJShoppingElf (@WSJShoppingElf) November 24, 2017

To be sure, there are still deals to be had: on Friday, retailers dangled the usual promotions, many of which were identical to last year, including 30% off at Coach and 50% off at the Gap. By Thanksgiving Day, shoppers were already taking advantage of the bargains. Kevin Krause, 27, was first in line waiting outside the Kohl’s store in Medford, Ore., Thanksgiving afternoon. The store opened its doors at 5 p.m., but by 3:15 there was already a line forming.

However, as the WSJ confirmed, lines at many other locations were far shorter - if present at all - compared to prior years, such as this Best Buy at the Fair Lakes Shopping Center in Fairfax Country, VA, where there was virtually no excitement opened this years, especially when compared to 2011.

Then (in 2011)...

... and now.

A similar comparison with Macy"s, which the WSJ compares between 2011 and now. The difference is self-explanatory.

Naturally, in light of the smaller bargains, the lack of shopper euphoria is understandable: yet what is surprising is why there aren"t bigger bargains? After all, neither the industry, nor the economy has turned on a dime. Speculating on the reason, the WSJ writes that "even as this year has proved one of the most challenging for retailers, analysts are predicting robust holiday sales, underpinned by rising wages, low unemployment and strong consumer confidence."

What rising wages? Aside from various "soft" surveys, and management expectations, wage growth remains abysmal, and real wage growth has been negative for three months!

What the WSJ probably means is that between near record low personal savings and a surge in credit card usage, Americans are spending like there"s no tomorrow... they are just not spending their own money.

Anyway, the always optimistic National Retail Federation expects sales to increase as much as 4%, to $682 billion in November and December, compared with the same period a year ago, which would make it the strongest season since 2014. The delusion about US households" spending power continued: "I’d be fully expecting people to be thinking about spending more, not be holding back as much as in the past,” said Andrew Duguay, a senior economist at Prevedere, a predictive analytics company.

Spending more of what?  Here is America"s savings rate: unfortunately people don"t have "more" to spend... 

And yet, maybe the NRF is on to something. In an interview with the WSJ earlier this week, Neiman Marcus Group CEO Karen Katz attributed a jump in the luxury retailer’s gross margin in the latest quarter to stronger full-priced sales. “We’ve gotten our inventory in perfect alignment with our sales,” Katz said.

That could change in the days leading up to Christmas. Shoppers have been trained to wait for deals—a practice made easier by online price comparisons. If they hold off on making purchases, retailers will likely slash prices more than planned as the season progresses.

To be sure, the lack of deals now may mean even greater discounts in the coming months:

In a Long Island, N.Y., Wal-Mart Thursday evening, Andre Valadas said it had been hard to snag one of the discounted Sharp TVs being sold at the store or at a Best Buy across the parking lot, but glanced at his phone often to text with friends nearby looking for a similar deal.

 

The 34-year-old software engineer expects prices to fall further. “I hope that if they don’t have deals right now they will have a them in a few weeks closer to Christmas,” Mr. Valadas said.

 

Retailers still have to contend with headwinds that include a shift in consumer spending away from apparel and accessories and toward dining, travel and entertainment, as well as the explosive growth in online sales.

The above is bad news for bricks and mortar retailers, who may have gotten a brief reprieve only to lose even more customers to online alternatives like Amazon.

And speaking of, Adobe Systems said online sales on Thanksgiving increased 17% as of 5 p.m. to $1.52 billion. It also expects online sales to increase 14% to $107.4 billion during the November-December period, compared with the previous year. Amazon said Thanksgiving was one of its biggest mobile shopping days, as orders placed through its app increased 50% over last year. Best selling items included Keurig coffee makers and its Echo speaker devices.

Indeed, no matter what happens to traditional retail, Amazon is likely to be winner. The online retailer, whose stock hit another all time high, is expecting a big Black Friday as more shoppers choose to skip the stores.

“If you go back to the creation of Black Friday, it was this amazing opportunity for customers to get great deals,” said Dorion Carroll, vice president of mobile shopping at Amazon, in an interview earlier this week. “So they would flock to the stores and all of that would be great, until it wasn’t. It got too crowded.”

In fact, it may come as a surprise to some, that Black Friday is no longer the busiest shopping day of the year. It ranks No. 3, behind the Saturday before Christmas and Cyber Monday, according to the consulting firm Customer Growth Partners.

Several dozen people still gathered in line early Friday morning to be the first inside a Target store in Houston when it opened at 6 a.m., though some said the crowds were notably smaller than years past. Once inside, shoppers like Freddy Cespedes, 42, owner of a small security company, found the best advertised stuff was already picked over the night before.

“I was expecting a lot more people,” said the Black Friday novice though he acknowledged he, like many people nowadays, primarily shops online.

One Analyst Throws Up On Today's Retail Sales Data: Here's Why

Two weeks ago we reported that July auto sales were a disaster: recall sales for bloated with inventory GM were down 15% YoY, Ford off 7% and Chrysler down 11% - despite record incentive spending - as overall auto sales declined and disappointed for yet another month. And yet, according to this morning"s retail sales report from the Census Bureau, sales for "motor vehicle & parts stores" rose much more robustly than anyone had anticipated, rising 1.2%, the fastest pace since December.

This number was so bizarre, and so out of context with recent sales data, that SouthBay Research threw up all over it in its morning note today. Here"s why:

• Retail Sales m/m: 0.6%


• Retail Sales ex Autos m/m: 0.45%


• Retail Sales ex Autos & Amazon m/m: 0.3%

Consumer Retail Spending was Actually Mild, As Expected

• Auto Sales growth unbelievable


• Amazon Prime Day juiced the results

Don"t believe the auto sales data.  Per the BEA, unit sales were flat m/m (+90K).  Meanwhile, per JD Power, July average retail prices were $950 lower than June"s as auto dealers struggled to make sales and incentives averaged $3.9K, the highest on record and $100 higher than June.

• Hmmm, no rise in auto sales per the real world and the BEA.  Coupled with a fall in net prices. But in fantasy land, the Census Bureau announces a $1.2B m/m jump in sales and a 7%+ y/y rise.

Amazon Prime Day Was Huge...and will Cut August Sales

• Nonstore Retail Sales jumped $700M m/m.  That"s the Amazon Prime Day effect. I modeled it lower and that"s the source of my miss this month

Reasons for Caution: Government Data is Overstating Reality

• The Retail strength does reinforce my view that macro data favors the US in 2H and that the dollar is oversold. But the Retail headline figure is wrong and analysts were correct: consumer spending as captured by Retail is sluggish.  The fact that reality is badly captured by the Retail figures is concerning insofar as it affects the Fed"s decision making. 

The opportunity is to recognize that consumer spending in the real world will pull back and it will also be missed by the official data.  With Consensus unprepared for the pull back, it will deliver a greater shock.

Meanwhile, here"s a quick look at SouthBay"s proprietary "Vice Index."

For those who are unfamiliar, the vice index tracks US consumer spending on alcohol, marijuana, prostitution and gambling, Vices are a special form of discretionary spending that is highly sensitive to near-term
economic conditions: i) Cash based: depends on free cash flow; ii) Luxury spending: wants not needs; iii) Significant dollar amount: not pricey but not cheap. Vice spending is broadly representative of the US consumer: i) Broad-based: Every socioeconomic and demographic group participates; ii) High-volume transactions: Over 100M discrete events per year.

The reason why this index is of particular interest, is because vices predict retail spending with a 4-month lead. Luxury spending is the 1st thing to be affected by changes in household finances.

This is what the index shows:

With New Patent, Amazon Will Collect As Much Customer Data As Google

A day after Amazon announced it would jump head-long into the bricks-and-mortar grocery business by agreeing to buy Whole Foods Market for $13.4 billion, reports from earlier this week about a new patent issued to the company are starting to make more sense. The patent, which was first reported by the Verge, is for wireless technology that can effectively block customers in Whole Food’s retail locations from “showrooming." "Showrooming" is the practice of using retail locations to test out products before buying them online - a practice that Amazon, by making it easy to comparison shop on a smartphone, helped pioneer.

In its report, the Verge focuses on how the technology will help the company solve a problem that Amazon itself helped create – a problem that has plagued virtually every other traditional retailer.

"Systems and methods for controlling online shopping within a physical store or retailer location are provided. A wireless network connection may be provided to a consumer device at a retailer location on behalf of a retailer, and content requested by the consumer device via the wireless network connection may be identified. Based upon an evaluation of the identified content, a determination may be made that the consumer device is attempting to access information associated with a competitor of the retailer or an item offered for sale by the retailer. At least one control action may then be directed based upon the determination.”

But the technology described in the patent also raises serious concerns about the company’s plans for vastly expanding its capacity to collect and store customers" data. As MarketWatch’s Theresa Poletti reports, with this added capability, Amazon may soon be gathering as much data on its consumers now as Alphabet’s Google Inc.

Stephen DiFranco, an executive-in-residence at the Plug and Play Tech Center in Sunnyvale, Calif., offered a few disturbing hints about the scope of Amazon’s data-collection capabilities in an interview with MarketWatch.

“[The technology] will also triangulate your position in the store, market to you while you are in the store, and understand your behavior in the store,” said DiFranco, who previously worked at Broadcom’s Internet of Things business and led the sale to Cypress Semiconductor CY, -1.72% “If they can collect the same kind of info that they can get while I am surfing on their site, they are going to be able to deliver the same value, the same experience that I get on their site...The company that knows more about the online behavior of me, will now own this same science...while I am in the Whole Foods retail environment.”

 

The positive aspect, he said, is that it will result in better, more convenient shopping experiences for consumers, with their preferences and habits known. It has the ability to turn into a real assistant for shopping. “You passed the milk, you always get milk,” your smartphone may tell you while shopping.

 

DiFranco said that by combining the data Amazon already has about its current customers, plus far more frequent data that comes from grocery shopping, will turn it into an even bigger giant with vastly more data. “This is jet fuel in retail analytics that no one else will have.”

But while some customers might balk at the prospect of shopping in a store where literally every single action and preference is being recorded, investors don"t seem to mind.

Whole Foods’ Market’s largest competitors lost a combined $32 billion in market capitalization yesterday after the announcement. Sell-side analysts have long been calling for a stronger management team to step in and take control of Whole Foods after years of chronically weak earnings and sluggish stock performance. Amazon’s stock also climbed 2.4% on the news, helping it slough off broader weakness in the FAAMG contingent.

Amazon, which already operates a grocery-delivery service in select markets, announced its plans for entering the bricks-and-mortar grocery business late last year when it opened its first small-format grocery store. At the time, the company said it could envision expanding to 2,000 stores. One of the store"s most widely publicized features was its use of automation and AI technology to eliminate check-out lines and allow customers to freely walk out with their purchases. But following the latest revelation about Amazon’s big-data tactics, investors should hope the ecommerce giant also plans to address the more prosaic flaws plaguing Whole Food’s business: Namely, that, as stagnant wages and rising rents force consumers to cut back on spending, the “Whole Paycheck” image will likely continue to alienate shoppers.

The Marlboro Red Consumer Sentiment Indicator

After last earnings season I noted without a strong rebound in consumer spending, I expect aggregate earnings growth to slow later this year (especially if declining energy prices cause credit to tighten). While asset inflation remains unchecked, consumer spending does not appear to be responding or accelerating. Two consumer companies on my possible buy list announced earnings this week – both suggest the operating environment remains challenging.

Casey General Stores (CASY), the convenience store operator, reported results on Monday with sales and earnings that were less than expected. Specifically EPS declined to $0.76 from $1.19 during the quarter and $4.48 vs. $5.73 for the year. During the quarter, same-store fuel gallons declined -0.5%, while grocery same-store comps increased 1.5% and prepared food/fountain comps were up 3.2%.

Management noted that similar to others in its sector, Casey’s “experienced downward pressure on customer traffic which had virtually impacted same-store sales across all of our categories.” Management blamed decelerating customer traffic on the weak agricultural economy, the difference in food away and food at home prices, and competitor promotional activities.

Management commented further on the agriculture economy saying, “The USDA anticipates either a flat to slightly declining farm income in calendar 2017. So we’d anticipate this piece of the challenging environment to continue to at least to the end of the calendar year.”

Labor costs were also discussed, with management calling labor very tight and wage pressures challenging. I thought the following comment was interesting, “It’s not uncommon for people to jump ship for $0.25 raise here and there, and so that has been a challenge.”

One of my favorite economic reports, the Marlboro Red Consumer Sentiment Indicator (MRCSI), was mentioned again this quarter and continued to suggest the consumer remains cautious.

Management commented, “I mean one of the things that we faced in the cigarette category, we do see, albeit it’s gradual but it’s been continuing for the next several quarters, a movement away from carton to pack purchasing. We’ve also seen it moving away from full value purchasing to a more discounted brand, which could be a generic brand.”

And finally, management had some interesting comments on their fiscal 2017 expectations versus actual results. Management explains, “…there’s no question that when we put our goals out for fiscal 2017, I’m not sure we fully anticipated the customer response, the consumer response I should say in relation to the economic conditions.” Management went on to note they are taking economic conditions into account more this year than they did last year.

Although Casey’s stock declined 8% on the news, trading at 18x EV/EBIT, it continues to trade over my estimated business valuation. Casey’s is one of the many high-quality companies I follow and like, but in my opinion, remains too expensive to generate future adequate absolute returns. Hence, it remains on my possible buy list, but not in my portfolio.

United Natural Foods (UNFI), the distributor of natural and organic foods, also announced earnings results this week. Although results appeared as expected, annual sales guidance was revised lower and its stock declined -4%.

Management noted the grocery environment remains challenging (side note: Isn’t it interesting restaurants often blame grocery stores for taking market share, yet grocers continue to struggle? Maybe it’s not where the consumer is spending, but how much the consumer has to spend).

Specifically, management stated,

“Net sales finished below our expectations in the third quarter driven by broad-based retail softness, the rationalization of business in conjunction with our margin initiatives and lack of inflation.”

“Same-store sales in many of our retail customers were under pressure or negative during the quarter. Our retail customers are facing competitive pressure not only from other food retailers but also from many channels now carrying assortment of better-for-you products.”

“…when you look at general same-store sales and year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter, many of the retailers across most of the channels are facing some real headwinds in terms of growth. And as part of that, we’ve seen certainly a fair number of store closings as retailers are coming together. And so in the near term, that’s been a real headwind for us.”

Kroger reports next week, hopefully providing us with more useful grocery and consumer data points. That said, for those waiting for the consumer to get the U.S. economy out of its 1-2% growth funk, further patience may be required. From a bottom-up perspective, I’m not seeing it.

Wayfair Tumbles After Amazon Launches Furniture Seller Program

It looks like another "retailer" is about to be "Amazon"-ed. Wayfair - the retail household goods seller - is tumbling this morning after Amazon reportedly pitches a new furniture seller program. Additionally, not helping the stocks, Citron"s Andrew Left goes negative on the stock, comparing the company"s controls to Madoff.

As FurnitureToday reports,

Speaking to about 40 retailer members of the Furniture Marketing Group buying group here, Amazon representatives in the furniture category said the e-commerce giant hopes to launch the new “Unified Delivery with Services” change to its platform late in the third quarter.

Under the plan, furniture sellers, such as stores, won’t be required to sell nationwide. The retailers will set their own pricing that can change with the services an Amazon customer chooses. White glove delivery (to a dry room) is the bare minimum service requirement — no drop-off at the door — but retailers can offer additional services, including delivery to the customers’ “room of choice,” set-up and haul away.

And the cost: Amazon is asking for a $39.99 monthly fee for an unlimited number of listings as well as 15% on the product sale and 20% on the services, according to Brett Hobson, Amazon business development representative in the furniture category. He added that retailers can choose to roll their services into the product price and offer just one price to customers for that 15% fee. However, in that case, Amazon shoppers wouldn’t see a menu of service options.

Read more here...

The result is not good...

And was not helped by Citron"s Andrew Left comparing the company to a ponzi scheme...

Wayfair may have buyers excited about rock-bottom prices for home goods, but its business model is unsustainable, Citron Research analyst Andrew Left says.

"The accounts payable, the cash flow, the business model – it"s stupid," Left said in a phone interview with Real Money. "They"ll never make money."

Left, a notable short seller, says shareholders should be alarmed that a company of Wayfair"s size, with more than 10,000 suppliers, uses manual internal controls, or does accounting by hand instead of automation. He compared the process to that used by convicted Ponzi? schemer Bernie Madoff, who personally supervised his company"s manual process.

In other areas of concern to Citron, Boston-based Wayfair’s accounts payable comprises 50 percent of its total assets and are 10 percent more than its revenue. Its accounts payable is also more than its $100 million cash on hand, Left says in an unpublished report obtained by Real Money.

Read more here...

"The Retail Bubble Has Now Burst": A Record 8,640 Stores Are Closing In 2017

        “Thousands of new doors opened and rents soared. This created a bubble, and like housing, that bubble has now burst.”

        - Richard Hayne, Urban Outfitters CEO, March 2017

The devastation in the US retail sector is accelerating in 2017, and in addition to the surging number of brick and mortar retail bankruptcies, it is perhaps nowhere more obvious than in the soaring number of store closures.

While the shuttering of retail stores has been a frequent topic on this website, most recently in the context of the next "big short", namely the ongoing deterioration in the mall REITs and associated Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities and CDS, here is a stunning fact from Credit Suisse:"Barely a quarter into 2017, year-to-date retail store closings have already surpassed those of 2008."

According to the Swiss bank"s calculations, on a unit basis, approximately 2,880 store closings were announced YTD, more than twice as many closings as the 1,153 announced during the same period last year. Historically, roughly 60% of store closure announcements occur in the first five months of the year. By extrapolating the year-to-date announcements, CS estimates that there could be more than 8,640 store closings this year, which will be higher than the historical 2008 peak of approximately 6,200 store closings, which suggests that for brick-and-mortar stores stores the current transition period is far worse than the depth of the credit crisis depression.

As the WSJ calculates, at least 10 retailers, including Limited Stores, electronics chain hhgregg and sporting-goods chain Gander Mountain have filed for bankruptcy protection so far this year. That compares with nine retailers that declared bankruptcy, with at least $50 million liabilities, for all of 2016. On Friday, women’s apparel chain Bebe Stores said it would close its remaining 170 shops and sell only online, while teen retailer Rue21 Inc. announced plans to close about 400 of its 1,100 locations.

Broken down by retailer, either in bankruptcy or not yet:

Another striking fact: on a square footage basis, approximately 49 million square feet of retail space has closed YTD. Should this pace persist by the end of the year, total square footage reductions could reach 147M square feet, another all time high, and surpassing the historical peak of 115M in 2001.

There are several key drivers behind the avalanche of "liquidation" signs on store fronts.

The first is the glut of residual excess retail space. As the WSJ writes, the seeds of the industry’s current turmoil date back nearly three decades, when retailers, in the throes of a consumer-buying spree and flush with easy money, rushed to open new stores. The land grab wasn’t unlike the housing boom that was also under way at that time.

“Thousands of new doors opened and rents soared,” Richard Hayne, chief executive of Urban Outfitters Inc., told analysts last month. “This created a bubble, and like housing, that bubble has now burst.”

The excess retail space means that North America has a glut of retail outlets, as well as far too many shopping malls, something which is becoming apparent as sales per capita decline. On a per capita basis, the US has roughly 24 square feet of retail space per capita, more than twice the space of Australia and 5 times that of the UK.

The over-storing, including the influx of fast-fashion and off-price chains, has resulted in a brutally competitive landscape that made difficult for retailers to raise prices. “A pair of men’s dress pants costs less today than they did a decade ago,” Manny Chirico, chief executive of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger parent PVH Inc., said in a recent interview.

* * *

Then there are retail rental rates, which across top US markets, such as New York, remain the highest in the world. For years, retailers could afford the egregious demands by landlords. But as overall traffic and volumes have declined, this has also prompted an exodus of outlets even among the most desired locations, leading to a surge in "fors rent or lease" signs popping up in unexpected places like Madison Avenue"s "golden mile."

According to the FT, on New York’s Fifth Avenue, the world’s most expensive shopping street, vacancy rates have jumped from 10 per cent a year ago to 16 per cent, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Rents there have fallen for the first time since the recession “and the trend is not over”, the consultancy warns. Vacancy rates across SoHo have climbed to 18 per cent, from 12 per cent a year ago, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

The newfound caution among retailers has had a “very significant and fast” negative impact on retail property, says Chris Conlon, chief executive of Acadia Realty, a real estate investment trust. 

It is not just prestigious streets that have been hit. Malls are also hurting, as chains from Sears to Macy’s shut hundreds of stores. Analysts at Green Street Advisors argue that “low growth is the new normal”, while market rents are becoming decoupled from tenants’ revenue growth as more sales move online. 

“[Rents] are at a price point now that exceeds what retail sales can perform,” says Spencer Levy, global head of research for CBRE. He notes that a stronger US dollar also hurts sales in New York, where deep-pocketed foreigners historically flock for deals.

* * *

Then there is the online migration, which recently made Jeff Bezos, owner of Amazon, the world"s second richest man.

As the WSJ adds, as retailers rushed to expand their physical footprint, the internet was gearing up to do to apparel companies what it had already done to booksellers: sap profits and eliminate what little pricing power these chains commanded.

Despite the view that shoppers prefer to try on clothing in physical stores, apparel and accessories are expected this year to overtake computers and consumer electronics as the largest e-commerce category as a percentage of total online sales, according to research firm eMarketer.

Helena Cawley, 37 years old, said she used to be a “die-hard” department-store shopper. But with two small children, the Manhattan entrepreneur doesn’t have time to visit physical stores the way she once did. “I buy much more online now,” she said. “With free returns and free shipping, it’s so easy.”

Ironically, that shift to online shopping has come at a high cost to retailers. It is less profitable to do business online than in a brick-and-mortar store, largely due to the higher shipping, customer-acquisition and technology costs of the digital world. Retail margins on average fell to 9% last year from 10.5% in 2012, according to consulting firm AlixPartners LP. Over that period, e-commerce sales increased to 15.5% of total sales from 10.5%. The internet has also made it easier for consumers to comparison shop, thereby erasing any pricing leverage retailers may have had. “The internet has acted as the great price equalizer,” said Joel Bines, the co-head of Alix’s retail practice.

* * *

Yet while the retail bubble may have burst, does that mean the conventional brick-and-mortar industry is doomed? Perhaps not:

Retailing has gone through shakeouts before, whether it was the superstores such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Target Corp. and Kmart that killed mom-and-pop shops, or category killers like Barnes & Noble Inc. and Toys “R” Us Inc. that did the same to smaller booksellers and toy chains. And even today, there are chains that continue to grow, such as off-price retailer TJX Co s., which is opening hundreds of stores under its Marshalls, T.J. Maxx and HomeGoods banners, as it steals market share from Macy’s Inc. and other traditional department stores.

“This is not the end of retailing as we know it,” Mr. Bines said. “People are not going to stop going to stores.”

He"s right, however in the meantime there will be an avalanche of defaults: compounding the retail decline is the debt that retailers have added to their balance sheets in recent years, either through leveraged buyouts or to fund share buybacks. That leverage has become a problem as profits dry up. According to Moody’s Investors Service, the amount of debt coming due for 19 distressed retailers is set to more than double over the next two years.

Many retailers were slow to seize on the significance of these changes. When business was bad during the 2015 holiday season, many chains blamed unusually warm weather. But when the most recent holiday season once again failed to produce robust sales growth, “retailers realized this was a structural change,” Credit Suisse analyst Christian Buss said.

With all that in mind, is Amazon assured of becoming the world"s first trillion-dollar stock, perhaps hitting the milestone even before Apple? Perhaps, then again, chains such as Wal-Mart have stepped up their game. In a bid to better compete with Amazon.com , the giant retailer has been scooping up e-commerce startups, including Jet.com and ModCloth. And just this past week, PetSmart Inc. bought Chewy.com, a fast-growing online rival.

Others have given up waiting for a recovery that seems always out of reach and are settling into what appears to be the new normal. “We’re planning as if the environment is not going to improve,” Jerry Storch, chief executive of Saks Fifth Avenue and Lord & Taylor parent Hudson’s Bay Co., told analysts earlier this month. In the meantime, expect more store closures, more bankruptcies (recall "According To Fitch These Eight Retailers Will File For Bankruptcy Next"), and, of course, far lower asset prices, both for retail equities and mall REITs, as well as the underlying CMBS securities that for years funded the US retail (and especially mall) bubble, which has now violently burst.