Vegas Shooter Was Depressed, Lost "A Significant Amount Of Wealth" Before Massacre

It’s been more than a month since Stephen Paddock smashed two windows in his hotel suite and opened fire on a crowd of 20,000 unsuspecting country music fans, and investigators are still desperately grasping for something that sounds like a motive in the deadliest mass shooting in US history. Extrapolating from the evidence that’s been presented to the public, it seems whatever Paddock"s motive might"ve been, he took it to his grave. Indeed, it seems logical to assume that any hints of Paddock’s state of mind in the moments leading up to the attack were encoded on the hard drive he reportedly smashed (or maybe even clues that might’ve led investigators to a possible accomplice).

Still, the pressure is building to find something to close the narrative, so to speak, as victims of the attack have begun filing lawsuits against MGM resorts. The company has been suspiciously tight-lipped about the attack, with reports suggesting the company forced Jesus Campos, the security guard whom Paddock shot in the leg - allegedly the first person to discover the shooter - into hiding, presumably to keep him from sharing details with the press that had not been vetted. He later made his first public appearance on the Ellen Show, reportedly because MGM execs felt Ellen wouldn’t ask too many penetrating questions about the still-murky timeline of events.

Among other details, it’s still unclear when, exactly, Campos happened on Paddock. And this is important because it would help to determine how long it took for the SWAT team took to get to Paddock’s room after hotel security was first alerted.

Meanshilw, as lawsuits against the company mount, strange details like a report earlier in the week that one member of the SWAT team responding to the incident "accidentally discharged" his gun in Paddock’s room. Paddock reportedly killed himself minutes before the police arrived. He shot Campos in the leg - and reportedly fired 200 rounds into the hallway - after being alerted to his presence thanks to a series of cameras he had rigged in and around his room.

So in a surprising update on Friday, the Associated Press reported what appears to be a trial balloon (and a weak one at that) hinting that, after weeks of intensive scrutiny, investigators are finally slouching toward a motive.

Gunman Stephen Paddock, a 64-year-old high-stakes gambler and real estate investor, had lost a "significant amount of wealth" since September 2015, which led to "bouts of depression," Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo said in an interview this week with Las Vegas news station KLAS-TV.

Depression would fit with other hints that Paddock suffered from untreated mental illness. But more importantly, it would satisfy the public"s craving for closure that would also remedy the uncertainty that there may have been something more sinister afoot.  While Police aren"t calling it a motive, they"re saying the loss of wealth could"ve been a "determining factor" in the shooting, which is notably vague.

"This individual was status-driven, based on how he liked to be recognized in the casino environment and how he liked to be recognized by his friends and family," Lombardo said. "So, obviously, that was starting to decline in the short period of time, and that may have had a determining effect on why he did what he did."

 

Investigators still have not determined exactly what led Paddock to unleash a barrage of gunfire at concertgoers from his high-rise suite at the Mandalay Bay hotel and casino on Oct. 1.

Of course, judging by the caveat, authorities still don’t feel comfortable citing this as the definitive motive, at least not yet. Still, it’s a useful hedge if, three months from now, they haven’t found anything else more compelling.

They still might: Tellingly, the AP also reported that investigators are once again putting the screws to the shooter’s longtime girlfriend, Marilou Danley, who has repeatedly insisted she saw no indication that he might be planning this horrible attack. Sheriff Joe Lombardo also casted aspersions on Paddock’s brothers, with whom he reportedly had little contact. One brother, Bruce Paddocks, was recently arrested in connection with a child pornography sting.

Marilou Danley is still considered a "person of interest" in the investigation and was being questioned again this week, Lombardo said. The FBI previously questioned her about Paddock"s gun purchases and what she may have noticed about his behavior, Danley has repeatedly denied knowing anything about the attack and said Paddock never said or did anything that would have led her to believe he was going to carry out a massacre.

 

But the sheriff said he had doubts about her story, calling it "hard to believe."

 

"You would think Ms. Danley would have some information associated with that," Lombardo said. "Currently, we haven"t been able to pull it out of her, if she has it in her."

 

The sheriff also described Paddock"s younger brother, Eric, as "manic" in interviews with news reporters outside his Florida home following the shooting but didn"t elaborate. Eric Paddock has called his brother a multimillionaire

 

"You can see there"s something associated with the family," Lombardo said without elaborating.

 

A second brother, Bruce Paddock, was arrested in Los Angeles on Oct. 25 on suspicion of possessing child pornography.

Whatever happened that night, the public might soon learn more of the details that investigators at the FBI and LVPD have so far refused to share. The AP is suing for radio dispatches, security camera footage and other records relating to the police response to the shooting. And as lawsuits move forward, some more evidence may well be made public during discovery.

Which only adds more pressure for investigators to have some defense - something they can turn to to explain the shooting and, in doing so, obviate any suspicions of incompetence that might color the public’s perception of both the investigation, and the actions of first responders.

"Shots Fired" - MGM Releases Audio Of Security Guard Reporting Las Vegas Shooting

Nearly a month after the worst mass shooting in US history, many questions remain unanswered.

After an exhaustive investigation, the FBI and Las Vegas Police Department have confirmed that Paddock meticulously planned the assault, and even booked hotel rooms overlooking music festivals in other cities – suggesting that he had planned previous attacks, but backed out for whatever reason. However, his motive is seemingly lost to the wind.

But perhaps even more troubling than the absence of a motive (from a legal perspective, at least) is the fact that, four weeks later, the timeline of events remains murky. Specifically, two things are still unclear: The first is whether security guard Jesus Campos, who first alerted the hotel to the attack, was shot before, during or after the assault began. The second is how long it took the hotel’s dispatcher to inform the police.

This information is, of course, crucial because victims of the attack have already begun filing lawsuits against MGM Resorts, the owner of Mandalay Bay, for negligence related to the attack.

So far, the company appears to be doing everything it can to suppress any new information from leaking to the press. The mystery surrounding Campos’s activities following the attack has only further alarmed victims. Following Stephen Paddock"s Oct. 1st massacre, Campos flaked on a press conference that he reportedly scheduled then went missing for days before suddenly resurfacing on the "Ellen" show - a decision that was made for him by MGM management, who apparently believed Ellen wouldn"t ask too many probing questions.

On Saturday, audio of Campos’s dispatch call reporting “shots fired” has been released. But curiously, the audio was not released with a time stamp, making it impossible for the public to discern when, exactly, the call was placed.

During the 24-second audio released Friday, Campos can be heard reporting “shots fired” at Mandalay Bay from the 32nd floor.

“Hey, there are shots fired in 32-135,” Campos says, according to the audio, which was released by MGM.

According to the most recent official version of events (which has of course been revised several times) Las Vegas Sheriff Joseph Lombardo has said Campos first reported that he had come across a blocked off doorway on the 32nd floor at 9:59 pm. The official timeline shows him being shot six minutes later, just before Paddock began firing on the crowd of 20,000 country music fans across the street. The shooting ended around 10:15, and the first police to arrive on the floor encountered Campos minutes later before forcing their way into Paddock’s room.

Last week, the New York Times postulated an alternative timeline that places the shooting of Campos about a minute after the shooting began. While it’s been reported that Paddock fired 200 rounds into the hallway, the gunshots in the record sound distant enough to suggest that he may have been firing on the crowd during the Campos call.  

Of course, the audio clip was not released with a timestamp, and no explanation from MGM was given as to why the clip is just being released now.

But as lawsuits move forward, perhaps more details about what exactly happened that night will emerge.

Mysterious "Missing" Vegas Security Guard Left The Country Days After Vegas Massacre

The mystery surrounding Mandalay Bay security guard Jesus Campos grows increasingly bizarre by the day.  Following Stephen Paddock"s October 1st massacre in Las Vegas, Campos, who may or may not have been shot by Paddock, flaked on a press conference that he reportedly scheduled then went missing for days before suddenly resurfacing on the "Ellen" show.

Now, Fox News has uncovered Customs and Border Patrol documents showing that Campos apparently crossed the border into Mexico days after the Vegas massacre.  Campos reportedly crossed the border at the same place in January but, for whatever reason, was driving a rental car this time around instead of his own vehicle.  Per the New York Post:

Mandalay Bay security guard Jesus Campos mysteriously left the country just days after the Las Vegas massacre, a report says.

 

Customs and Border Patrol documents obtained by Fox News show that the 25-year-old entered the United States from Mexico at the San Ysidro border crossing in California — one week after the mass shooting.

 

It’s unclear how long Campos was out of the country. The documents only show that he entered back into the US.

 

The young man reportedly crossed the border at the same location in January.

 

While Campos was driving his own vehicle with Nevada plates during that trip, sources told Fox that he took a rental car this time around — which was registered in California.

Of course, this raises a number of new questions including, but certainly not limited to, the following: (1) why would the FBI allow a material witness to flee the country during an ongoing investigation, (2) if Campos was shot, why/how did he spend hours in a car on a road trip to Mexico rather recuperating in a hospital bed and (3) if this was a "pre-planned" visit, as his union suggests, then why did investigators seem so baffled by his disappearance.

The new information raises even more questions about Stephen Paddock’s Oct. 1 massacre — such as why authorities would allow Campos to leave the country in the middle of their investigation or how the security guard managed to make it down to Mexico with a gunshot wound to his leg.

 

Campos reportedly took a bullet from gunman Stephen Paddock at the start of his killing spree.

 

The union that represents him told Fox that they were aware of his trip to Mexico and claimed it was pre-planned visit. What’s unclear, though, why the group didn’t report his whereabouts in the days following the massacre.

So what say you?  Was this just an innocent, pre-planned trip to Mexico or is there a lot more to the Jesus Campos saga?

Brother Of Las Vegas Gunman Arrested On Child Pornography Charges

The story of Las Vegas shooter Stephen Paddock"s family just keeps getting weirder.

The Los Angeles Times is reporting one of Paddock"s younger brothers, Bruce Paddock, has been detained in North Hollywood on suspicion of crimes related to child pornography. Paddock, 58, was taken into custody Wednesday morning.

The LAPD said a man was detained in the 5300 block of Laurel Canyon Boulevard on suspicion of crimes related to child pornography. However the LAPD would not reveal the name of the man. Sandra Breault, a spokeswoman for the FBI in Las Vegas, declined to say whether Bruce Paddock’s detention was connected to the agency"s investigation into the concert shooting.

Las Vegas shooter Stephen Paddock

The Paddocks" father, Benjamin Paddock, was famously revealed to be a former bank robber and con man who once made the FBI"s "most wanted" list. Paddock"s family has mostly avoided the media, though his youngest brother, Eric, spoke out when reporters descended on his Florida home in the days following the shooting. Eric Paddock said he wasn"t close with most of his brothers, but had once been involved in a lucrative real estate venture with Stephen. He said he was shocked to learn that his brother had been the shooter, and said his brother gave no indication that he might carry out such an atrocious act.

The 64-year-old Stephen Paddock opened fire on a Las Vegas crowd of 20,000 people attending a country music festival on Oct. 1. Paddock killed 60 people, including himself, in the meticulously planned attack for which investigators have so far failed to identify a motive. The quest to find why Stephen Paddock, a wealthy real estate investor and professional gambler, did what he did has so far yielded no results.

Meanwhile, police have repeatedly changed their timeline for the shooting, and MGM Resorts, the owner of the Mandalay Bay hotel, has taken efforts to stop more information about the timeline of events from leaking to the public, for fear it could face lawsuits from Paddock"s victims.

Mandalay Bay, MGM Resorts Ordered To Preserve Evidence In Vegas Massacre

Just hours after rumors that MGM Resorts had pressured Jesus Campos to appear on a "soft" talkshow, rather than a hard-hitting news show, local Laws Vegas NBC affiliate News3LV reports that Mandalay Bay and its corporate owner MGM Resorts have been ordered to preserve evidence relate to the October 1st massacre.

As we previously noted, sources told DailyMail.com, MGM is worried that families of the 58 people murdered as well as many of the 546 injured  in the Mandalay Bay massacre will launch lawsuits potentially worth billions of dollars against the company, and they thought Campos might not keep his story straight under the pressure of the TV lights and tough questioning.

That is why Campos, 25, appeared on a daytime chat show hosted by a fast-talking, dancing comedienne, rather than take questions from TV hardhitters such as Fox News’ Sean Hannity, NBC News or ABC News.

 

‘MGM was behind the decision to call off all the interviews and did a deal with Ellen, knowing she would not play hardball on the timeline as long as she had the exclusive,’ a TV insider told DailyMail.com.

But now, as News3LV.com reports, Mandalay Bay and its corporate owner MGM Resorts have been ordered not to destroy anything that could be considered evidence in a civil negligence trial over events related to the Route 91 music festival. The order was sought by attorneys who represent Rachel Sheppard, a California woman who survived the attack, despite being shot in the chest three times.

“The shooter was in that hotel for six days,” says attorney Brian Nettles.

 

The order, granted by Judge Mark Denton, restrains Mandalay Bay from destroying anything of evidentiary value until another hearing set for Oct. 30 at 9 a.m.

 

That’s when MGM will have a chance to argue against the ruling, before a possible ruling to would make the order permanent.

 

“There’s evidence that’s coming out about surveillance cameras that he may have set up himself, evidence about ways that he may have altered his room or that hallway,” he says.

 

The lawsuit alleges that negligence on the part of Mandalay Bay, and MGM Resorts, contributed to the shooting massacre that claimed 58 lives and injured more than 500 people.

Perhaps now - in discovery - we may actually get to the bottom of the "real" timeline...

Missing Vegas Massacre Security Guard Resurfaces...

The mystery is over. After vanishing since last Thursday, wounded Las Vegas security guard Jesus Campos has been found... On the set of "Ellen".

As we noted previously, the general story of Campos" disappearance appears to have been confirmed by ABC journalist Stephanie Wash, who tweeted Thursday evening:

“Media scrum tonight as we learn security officer shot in Vegas attack, Jesus Campos’ whereabouts are unknown.”

“Jesus Campos was set to do 5 intvs tonight per union president, but they’ve lost contact. ‘We were in a room & we came out & he was gone,’” she also tweeted.

Then, David Hickey of the Security, Police, and Fire Professionals of America (SPFPA) told reporters Friday that he got a text the night before saying Jesus Campos was taken to a UMC Quick Care facility, though he did not specify where or whom the text came from.

A spokesperson at the UMC Quick Care, which has eight locations throughout the Las Vegas area, told Fox News on Monday that they had "heard nothing" about Campos visiting them.

And now, as Ellen herself tweeted this morning, we know where he is...

Tomorrow, the first people to encounter the Las Vegas shooter are here – security guard Jesus Campos and building engineer Stephen Schuck. pic.twitter.com/dDmjzN6xBx

— Ellen DeGeneres (@TheEllenShow) October 18, 2017

As The LA Times reports, Ellen DeGeneres’ television talk show is expected to broadcast the much-anticipated first interview with the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino security guard, who was the first shooting victim in the Oct. 1 massacre in Las Vegas.

In a recording of his appearance on “Ellen” obtained by the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Campos, who said he was “doing better each day, slowly but surely,” confirmed he had called in when he was shot - before the full rampage began.

But he gave few other details that would answer nagging questions about the response of hotel security and Las Vegas police.

He said he called security dispatch to transfer his call to the building"s engineers, who sent an engineer to examine the door.

“At that time I heard what I assumed was drilling sounds,” Campos said. (Officials have said that Paddock appeared to be drilling into a wall inside his room for unknown reasons.) As Campos walked down the hall, away from Paddock"s suite, the outer door of the access room, which was unblocked, closed loudly behind him.

“I believe that"s what caught the shooter"s attention,” Campos said. “As I was walking down, I heard rapid fire, and at first I took cover.” The gunman was shooting through the door of his hotel suite. “I don"t know how he was shooting.”

Campos felt a “burning sensation” and went to lift his pant leg up and, seeing blood, realized he’d been shot.

“That"s when I called it in on my radio that shots had been fired,” Campos said. “I was going to say that I was hit, but I got on my cellphone just to clear that radio traffic for — they can coordinate the rest of the call.”

The photo of Campos holding a cane on the set Tuesday shows him alongside maintenance engineer Stephen Schuck, who was also shot at by the gunman on the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay hotel.

First Pictures Emerge Of Vegas Shooter's Weapons, Hotel Room

Somehow, Boston 25 News has obtained exclusive photos from what they describe as "police sources" purportedly showing the guns used during Sunday night"s massacre in Las Vegas, where a 64-year-old shooter with a room full of weapons fired on a country music festival from the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay casino and resort, killing 59 people and injuring more than 500.

Boston 25’s Jacqui Henrich obtained the photos early Tuesday morning, and they clearly show the gun on the floor of the Mandalay Bay hotel room, along with many rounds of ammunition.

EXCLUSIVE: photo from inside #MandalayBay shooter’s hotel room shows gun, ammo, hammer, bipod, optics @boston25 pic.twitter.com/4B2iRhquq5

— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) October 3, 2017

A hammer that was presumably used to break the windows of the room, which was on the 32nd floor, can be seen beside the gun. The bipod used to stand the weapon on as the shooter sprayed the crowd with bullets is also in view.

Las Vegas police said the shooter, Stephen Paddock of Mesquite Nevada, had 23 guns inside his hotel room, including semiautomatic rifles. An additional 19 guns were discovered in his home in Mesquite, along with thousands of rounds of ammunition. Meanwhile, explosives were found in his car, suggesting he may have been planning something even worse than the worst mass shooting in modern American history.

Paddock killed himself as police entered his hotel room, Boston 25 reported.

While none of the weapons in the photos are fully automatic arms, the "bump stock" that was used by the shooter to mimic automatic-weapons fire can plainly be seen attached to the butt of one of the shooter"s rifles, as the Tribunist points out.

* * *

In a development that only deepens the mystery surrounding Paddock"s motives, NBC news is reporting that the man who will go down in history as the Mandalay Bay shooter lost a slip-and-fall lawsuit against a Nevada casino in 2014. He reportedly still owed $270 in court fees at the time of his attack.

Security video from the Cosmopolitan Hotel shows Paddock slipping and falling on Oct. 30, 2011, as he walked from a hotel shop towards a high-stakes area in the casino. Paddock said he had slipped in a puddle of liquid and sued the hotel in 2012, initially asking for $100,000, according to an attorney for the hotel.

Footage showing Paddock slipping and falling...

The lawyer met Paddock when he testified in a deposition for the lawsuit. Paddock enjoyed a special high-roller status with perks at at least one Vegas casino, the lawyer said, but he was unkempt in his appearance, looking slovenly and "bizarre" during the deposition.

However, the lawyer said there was "nothing about Paddock that would ever indicate someone who was unstable."

"This is not a guy that I would have looked at and thought, "He"s going to commit a crime one day."

Paddock"s suit ended up in arbitration in 2014. According to the decision, Paddock reported incurring more than in $32,000 in medical bills, and also wanted to be paid for pain and suffering. Security video shows him getting medical attention and then being stretchered out of the casino.

"As a result of the fall," said the document, "Mr. Paddock allegedly sustained a tear to his hamstring as well as a sprain/strain injury to his wrist" and elevated blood pressure. The hotel maintained that Paddock had failed to prove negligence because "there was no actual or constructive notice of any liquid in the area of the sundry shop."

The arbitrator confirmed that the video does show Paddock slipping and falling, but also noted a custodian can be seen passing the same spot about a minute before Paddock"s accident, followed by about 20 hotel customers, and none of them "appear to have noticed anything on the floor [or] tried to avoid a wet area."

According to Paddock"s brother Eric, Paddock was a millionaire thanks in part to real estate holdings in California. Caesar"s Entertainment had granted him a "Seven Stars" designation as a frequent gambler "with status" at its casino properties, according to a source familiar with the investigation. Seven Stars is the highest level that a high roller can achieve and is only granted by invitation.

In the weeks prior to his death, according to multiple senior law enforcement officials and a casino executive, Paddock had gambled large sums of money at Vegas casinos. Currency transaction reports show that Paddock had recently gambled more than $10,000 a day,

Wynn Resorts Macau Casino Books $10M "Black Swan" Gambling Loss

Wynn Resorts, the casino and resort company controlled by billionaire mogul and former Trump political adviser Steve Wynn, booked a staggering gambling loss that one economist described as a “black swan” during the second quarter when one of its subcontractors in charger of keeping the casino stocked with high rollers lost money for a whole month.

The loss was revealed by Wynn during the company’s second-quarter earnings call earlier this week, when he described how Suncity Group, a junket operator that recruits high-roller clients for the casinos, brought in clients whose winnings cost the casino more than $10 million in April, according to Bloomberg.

"On Tuesday, casino billionaire Steve Wynn revealed that a junket operator in his Macau casinos - essentially a subcontractor - brought in clients whose winnings cost the casino more than $10 million in April, an astonishing swing for a business that can generate profit of as much as $50 million.

"We had probably the most unique statistical anomaly in my 50 years of doing this," the founder and chief executive officer of Wynn Resorts told analysts on a conference call. "And that is with enormous volume, one of our leading outlets lost money for the entire month.""

The high-rollers made millions, Wynn explained, with the casino on the hook for it.

“The bottom fell out and all of the players won millions of dollars,” said the 75-year-old casino mogul.

According to Bloomberg, the loss occurred at the Wynn Palace baccarat tables. The Palace is Wynn’s new $4.2 billion resort on Macau’s Cotai Strip, a market teeming with high rollers. Macau has a system where junket operators like Suncity bring high rollers to casinos, front them cash and pay for private rooms. The casinos then pay the operators a commission based on the amount their clients bet.

Though the anecdote was clearly intended to amuse, it also contains some insight into the behavior of Wynn shares following the company’s Tuesday earnings release. The company’s stock dropped 4% despite the company beating on the top-line numbers as investors raised concerns about weakness in the company’s mass-market business, which tends to be more profitable – and more stable – than the VIP business segment.

Robert Hannum, a professor of risk at the University of Denver who was interviewed by Bloomberg, explained that a string of losses of this magnitude is extremely unlikely in baccarat, though the game does have some of the best odds for players.

“The odds are astronomically high,” he said in an e-mail. “Of course, black swans do occur and some might say that anything can happen in the casino business.”

In baccarat, the house advantage averages 1.2 percent - meaning a player can expect to lose $1.20 for every $100 bet over time. That’s compared with a loss ratio as high as $12 for slots. The inherent volatility of the casino business, a phenomenon with which President Donald Trump is well acquainted, has forced some resort companies to use creative accounting techniques to prevent a stretch of bad luck from ruining a quarter.

“The volatility of the business has prompted some casino operators to report their results on a hold-adjusted basis, meaning they also tell investors what revenue would have been had winnings been more in line with historical norms.

In January, Las Vegas Sands Corp. blamed one lucky gambler for contributing in part to a $15 million to $20 million shortfall at its new Parisian resort in Macau. On Wednesday, the company said the volatile high-end baccarat play contributed to a $100 million revenue bump at its Marina Bay Sands in Singapore.”

Wynn is becoming known for his antics during earnings calls. During the company’s Q1 2016 call, Wynn launched into an epic tirade about naked short-sellers before excoriating HFT firms for front-running orders and other market-rigging techniques, saying “have very little respect for the integrity of the trading on the exchange in most stocks.”
 

Condo Flippers In Miami-Dade Left Twisting In The Wind

By Wolf Richter of Wolf Street

Ballooning Condo Glut ensnares preconstruction speculators.

Miami-Dade’s spectacular condo flipping mania is in turmoil, with sales plunging, inventory-for-sale soaring, and new supply flooding the market. It’s not like Miami hasn’t been through this before.

In February, existing home sales of all types fell 10% year-over-year, to 1,835 homes. These sales “do not include Miami’s multi-billion dollar new construction condo market,” the Miami Association of Realtors clarified in its report on March 23.

And this new construction market that is not included has become distressed.

Sales of single-family homes fell 10% in February, to 881 houses. The report blamed the shortage of properties “in popular price points.” Prices have been rising sharply, and at the price points where people could actually buy a house – below $250,000 – few sellers were playing ball. Hence a stalling market. Sales of high-priced units rose, but they weren’t enough to pull out the totals.

Condo sales fell 10% as well, to 954 units. This time, the report didn’t blame the lack of supply. Instead: “Existing condo sales are competing with a robust new construction market.” At the same time, inventory of existing condos for sale, not including new units, rose 10% to 15,289. At the current sales rate, supply soared 29% to 14 months.

This chart by StatFunding shows the plunge in sales and the surge in condos listed for sale. I circled the last five Februaries on the sales line (red). From February 2014 to February 2017, condo sales have plunged 25%. Andrew Stearns, StatFunding’s founder and CEO, calls the resale inventory – the dark green line that has soared 90% since early 2013 – “scary”:

Even this “scary” inventory understates the total number of condos for sale. It only includes units listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). But developers normally don’t list their new units on the MLS, and thus they’re not included in the above chart.

This is the distressed market that preconstruction condo flippers are facing.

Preconstruction condo flippers make a highly leveraged bet. They buy the condo from the developer during the construction phase. The initial deposit is small. Additional payments are required as construction progresses. But in a booming market, lenders are eager to lend. Then, often around the time the building is completed, flippers try to unload the condo at a profit. This bet has been hot in the condo construction boom around the country. But in Miami, the bet is now collapsing.

During good times, developers sell all their units either to end-users or to flippers within a few months of completion. But now, developers are getting stuck with unsold units, which, as Stearns points out, marked the “inflection points of previous condo cycles.”

The 12 large developments completed between late 2015 and late 2016 have added 2,743 condos to the market. Developers still own 433 of them (15.8%).

In addition, preconstruction flippers are also trying to unload their units. In those 12 developments alone, 451 condos, or 16.4% of the total, have been listed for sale on the MLS.

Here is the granular detail as of March 22 per StatFunding (sources: MLS, Miami-Dade Recorder; completion date in parenthesis):

• Echo Aventura, 190 units (8/2015). Developer sits on 13 units (7%) and took out a bridge loan secured by those units. 36 units have appeared on the MLS.


• Crimson, 90 units (12/2015). Developer is stuck with 30 units (34%!) and has sold only 1 unit since December 2016. 12 units listed for sale on MLS.


• Peloro Miami Beach, 114 units (3/2016). Developer has sold all but 2 units. This includes 3 units sold via bulk sale this year. But 38 units – 33% of the total! – are listed on the MLS for resale.


• CityCenter Reach, 390 units (4/2016). Developer is stuck with 46 units (12%). Meanwhile, 47 units have appeared on the MLS for resale.


• Le Parc Brickell, 128 units (6/2016). The developer has listed the 9 units that haven’t sold yet on the MLS, in addition to 23 units listed on the MLS by condo flippers, for a total of 32 units – 25% of the total!


• Centro, 352 units (7/2016). Developer sits on 34 units and has not sold any in 2017. Meanwhile, 56 units (16% of total) are listed on MLS.


• Bond, 328 units (8/2016). Developer still has 23 units, including 12 that an affiliate of the developer purchased in bulk in March. And 72 units (22%) have been listed for sale on MLS.


• Grove Grand Bay, 98 units (8/2016). Developer owns 7 units; 31 units (32%!) have been listed on MLS.


• CityCenter Rise, 390 units (9/2016). Developer still sits on 212 units (54%). According to Stearns, “developer closings have slowed to a trickle, and it appears the initial sell-through is nearly complete.” Already, 24 units are listed on MLS.


• SLS Brickell, 450 units (11/2016). Developer is down to 8 units, four months after completion. “This is what a successful sell-through looks like,” Stearns says. Condo flippers have listed 55 units for sale.


• Casa Brickell, 81 units (11/2016). Developer sits on 22 units (27%); 8 units (10%) have already appeared on MLS.


• Porsche Design, 132 units (12/2016). Developer still has 27 units (20%). “Initial sell-through closings are slowing,” and only 4 developer units sold in March, Stearns says. But 40 units (30% of total) have been listed for resale on MLS.

This sort of data begs the question: How many people actually live in units they own in these buildings?

For developers, the equation is getting dicey. Stearns:

Stuck with unsold units, some developers have not repaid their construction loans, others have taken out bridge loans to carry unsold units. The developer is responsible for taxes, maintenance fees, and insurance for unsold units, and unsold units are probably negative carry for the developer.

Developers may resort to mark-down liquidation or bulk sales of unsold condos as the cycle progresses….

Part of the problem? The market teems with foreign buyers. But the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network has figured out that there is a large amount of money laundering in housing. It has started making noises. And cash deals are plunging in  Miami-Dade. In February they were down 17.5% year-over-year to 580 condo deals, or 61% of all condos sold. Other money-laundering hotspots too are being targeted, and answers are starting to emerge.

Vegas Strip Partially Shut After One Person Shot Dead; Gunman Surrenders After Barricade Stand Off With police

Update: Police reported that the suspect had surrendered shortly before 3:30pm local time. They asked anyone with information to contact the police department. Hadfield revealed to the media that the shooter was armed with a handgun and was the only person on the bus before he surrendered. "This is a single incident and is not deemed to be terrorism-related," he said.

* * *

One person has died in a shooting during an ongoing standoff that has forced the partial closure of the Las Vegas strip after a gunman barricaded himself inside a bus.

We"re currently investigating a shooting that occurred on S. Las Vegas Blvd. near Harmon. There is no active shooter. #LVMPDnews

— LVMPD (@LVMPD) March 25, 2017

LOUD explosion heard & smoke seen rising from area of barricaded bus. Clark County Fire Dept ambulance pulled up to scene, then turned away. pic.twitter.com/AE3twwNOwS

— Kyndell Nunley (@KyndellNews3LV) March 25, 2017

The standoff began after a shooting was reported Saturday on Las Vegas Boulevard in the heart of the Strip near the Cosmopolitan hotel.  According to AP, Las Vegas Boulevard is closed between Flamingo Road and Harmon Avenue. Police say they do not believe there are any other suspects.

S. Las Vegas Blvd. between Flamingo & Harmon remains closed due to a barricade subject on bus. Please avoid the area. #LVMPDnews

— LVMPD (@LVMPD) March 25, 2017

Cops pleading "come out of the bus. No one else needs to get hurt" #cosmopolitan

— Scot Pollard (@ScotPollard31) March 25, 2017

University Medical Center spokeswoman Danita Cohen said two people were taken to the hospital after the Saturday shooting. She said one person has died and the other is in fair condition.

Police negotiators and tactical teams are on the scene. Police say they do not believe there are any other suspects and they believe the shooter is on the bus. Police say they do not believe there are any other suspects.

"We had one single shooting incident with two victims. Both were transported to the trauma center and one is deceased," Officer Larry Hadfield told USA Today.

"This incident is being treated as a barricade at this time. There is no credible information that there is a second suspect," Officer Hadfield told CNN.

Caught On Video: Mass Panic Strikes Bellagio As Robbers In Pig Masks Open Fire Inside Rolex Store

Mass panic struck the Bellagio early this morning as three pig-masked, armed robbers decided to try to knock off the Rolex store just as a bunch of drunk guests were stumbling home from their night of general debauchery.  Luckily, the dulled senses of these plastered guests allowed them the courage to film the whole scene rather than duck for cover so we"re able to present the whole dumbed-down version of an Ocean"s Eleven remake in real time.

According to media reports, at least three people entered the Rolex store inside the Bellagio in the wee hours of Saturday morning.  The robbers apparently used sledgehammers to break through the glass entrance of the store.  While initial reports indicated that shots were fired, police subsequently confirmed those reports to be false.

The whole scene was captured on video here:

Meanwhile, rather than hide, Kira decided to snap some pics of the robbery for Twitter and even took the time to include all the relevant hashtags...well done, Kira.

Literally just witnessed an armed robber in a pig mask at a Rolex store at the Bellagio & then his arrest #bellagio #vegas #rolex #robbery pic.twitter.com/m53T6bHS2z

— Kira (@Kir_kamil) March 25, 2017

And this was the scene outside as police swarmed the casino:

Per the USA Today, the incident happened shortly before 3 AM Vegas time.

The incident happened shortly before 3 a.m. local time, and witnesses told police the men smashed the store"s windows to get inside, the Las Vegas Sun reported.

Las Vegas police confirmed a robbery occurred, saying three people were involved and one was taken into custody.

Meanwhile, unlike Kira, JillyJill at least decided to duck under a table before live-tweeting the robbery...way to play it safe, JillyJill.

Driverless Shuttles Hit Las Vegas: No Steering Wheels, No Brake Pedals

Submitted by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Electric, driverless shuttles with no steering wheel and no brake pedal are now operating in Las Vegas.

There’s a new thrill on the streets of downtown Las Vegas, where high- and low-rollers alike are climbing aboard what officials call the first driverless electric shuttle operating on a public U.S. street.

The oval-shaped shuttle began running Tuesday as part of a 10-day pilot program, carrying up to 12 passengers for free along a short stretch of the Fremont Street East entertainment district.

The vehicle has a human attendant and computer monitor, but no steering wheel and no brake pedals. Passengers push a button at a marked stop to board it.

The shuttle uses GPS, electronic curb sensors and other technology, and doesn’t require lane lines to make its way.

“The ride was smooth. It’s clean and quiet and seats comfortably,” said Mayor Carolyn Goodman, who was among the first public officials to hop a ride on the vehicle developed by the French company Navya and dubbed Arma.

“I see a huge future for it once they get the technology synchronized,” the mayor said Friday.

The top speed of the shuttle is 25 mph, but it’s running about 15 mph during the trial, Navya spokesman Martin Higgins said.

Higgins called it “100 percent autonomous on a programmed route.”

“If a person or a dog were to run in front of it, it would stop,” he said.

Higgins said it’s the company’s first test of the shuttle on a public street in the U.S. A similar shuttle began testing in December at a simulated city environment at a University of Michigan research center.

The vehicle being used in public was shown earlier at the giant CES gadget show just off the Las Vegas Strip.

Las Vegas city community development chief Jorge Cervantes said plans call for installing transmitters at the Fremont Street intersections to communicate red-light and green-light status to the shuttle.

He said the city hopes to deploy several autonomous shuttle vehicles — by Navya or another company — later this year for a downtown loop with stops at shopping spots, restaurants, performance venues, museums, a hospital and City Hall.

At a cost estimated at $10,000 a month, Cervantes said the vehicle could be cost-efficient compared with a single bus and driver costing perhaps $1 million a year.

The company said it has shuttles in use in France, Australia, Switzerland and other countries that have carried more than 100,000 passengers in more than a year of service.

Don’t Worry Tax Drivers

Don’t worry taxi drivers because some of my readers say …

1. This will never work


2. There is no demand


3. Technology cost will be too high


4. Insurance cost will be too high


5. The unions will not allow it


6. It will not be reliable


7. Vehicles will be stolen


8. It cannot handle snow, ice, or any adverse weather.


9. It cannot handle dogs, kids, or 80-year old men on roller skates who will suddenly veer into traffic causing a clusterfack that will last days.


10. This is just a test, and testing will never stop.

Real World Analysis

Those in the real world expect millions of long haul truck driving jobs will vanish by 2020-2022 and massive numbers of taxi job losses will happen simultaneously or soon thereafter.

Yes, I bumped up my timeline by two years (from 2022-2024 to 2020-2022) for this sequence of events.

My new timeline is not all tremendously optimistic given the rapid changes we have seen.